Published Monday through Friday about 8
AM Central Time Except Holidays
This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics.
For additional content,
Economy Gets Saved?
Although I keep threatening to just not do Saturday
reports so I can get things done around the ranch -- a trip to
the lumber store for some cabinet-making plywood and hardwood
top feed into the
is on the list this morning and welding up the array
holder for the solar panels comes up this afternoon -- these are
serious times and because I'm pondering whether to enter an
options trade next week, I've been especially restless of late.
I'll get into this a bit more for subscribers this weekend, but
since the 1950's, it seems to me that we have seen the emergence
of three different economies within the US. The
original was the bricks and mortar/industrial economy - the one
that made cars, airplanes, televisions, and so on. Then we
saw the evolution of the financial services industry - a mother
giant of late with more notional value than the entire
world's gross product. And not to be overlooked -
because it serves both, is the services economy.
It's a kind of three-legged milk stool. Supposedly.
Unfortunately, now that tables have turned on the
financial services leg, it will 'take down' a big chunk of the
services sector as well. And, since we have irresponsibly
allowed American corporations to outsource most of our former
industrial economy to China and India, the industrial leg of
that milk stool has also been hacked.
What stands as a challenge for the Obamanation is how to repair
the foreshortened milk stool. I think you know the
answer...it's obvious to me: Rebuild infrastructure and
Imposing tariffs, as was done in the last depression under the
Smoot Hawley Tariff Act will likely not be played this
time around, although I'd argue that bad Fed policy in the last
depression had more negative influence than did
Smoot-Hawley, but the capitalists have managed to
effectively rewrite history and give a thorough black-eye to
tariffs. Big money to be made playing them wage-rate
differentials when sales flatten out.
The reality the fat-cats won't cop to is that making goods
overseas - and I don't care whether it's the apple from another
continent, or a refrigerator in an Asian country - happened
because the wage-rate differential between a higher standard of
living economy and a lesser one fell to the bottom lines - and
that's bonus time. Not to say that's bad - hell,
it's the same strategic decision I'd make, too, if my bread were
buttered only on the one side..
The problem at a national policy level is whether the export of
jobs has gone so far as to now be unrecoverable with something
simple - like tariffs or a stimulus - or whether the rest of the
world will just start backing away from US dollars. I
guess we'll find that out over the coming few weeks with the
G-20 meetings next weekend.
My friend The Bond Dude made a very interesting observation to
the effect that he thinks China will keep playing the dollar
game only so long as it helps China build a strong middle
class. The way he's got it penciled, once the Chinese
have a strong enough middle class (e.g. enough consumers -
perhaps 300-million or so...) then the Chinese can let their
currency appreciate extensively relative to ours and assume
Masters of the Universe global power.
They could then phase their industrial output into domestic
consumption - and paradoxically, the recent earthquake in China
has set off a massive rebuilding effort - and that does what?
Increases the growth rate for China's middle class.
Some indications are that the Obamanation may be a lot more
'talk' than 'action' when it comes down to tangible change.
Headlines like "Obama's
change leaves by the back door" are cropping up in reaction
to the disappointing appointments of old-guard paradigm
defenders and ex-Clintonistas in the early days of the next
administration. Have we been snookered by the PTB? I
wouldn't bet against that...
Ultimately, I expect the reason the market climbed last week was
that the Obamanation showed its true stripes: It's going
to be a refried Clinton era with, oh sure, a few new faces
who will likely talk more about change that get down to the
business of infrastructure rebuilding, going green, and
articulating a believable, achievable new kind of American
Till these guys articulate a plan to rebuild the milk stool,
onshore jobs, and reel in the banksters, it's the same train
wreck all over again - just with a different engineer.
Certain lobbies in Washington seem committed to whipping Iran
phonic behavior - and with enough old-guard/paradigm defenders,
I notice that headlines like "Obama:
Iran must be kept from developing nukes" are predictably
Horrible war is raging in the Congo and
this weekend, the UN is holding meetings to talk about it.
Notice anything? How about: the US not throwing in a big
military commitment? The pattern to notice - and I'm not
being overly critical here, is that Congo don't have pipeline
routes or oil resource to offer in sufficiency to garner the
huge kind of outlays that go into the Middle East wars... Longer
term, this is why China wins Africa.
Know this, if you live or have plans to go visiting, early this
week would be great because often after big storm action like
this, bits of treasure wash up on the beaches in the area - man
y a ship went down in historical times in that neighborhood..
I know people's who've come up with some dandy doubloons from
after-storm beach combing...
Ah...once again, a reader report underscores my contention that
you should back up all of your critical financial records on
your own media. Here's why...
A friend who had about $250K in
IndyMac with a joint account lost "about $40K" when it
failed some time ago. He writes that contrary to federal
law, the Feds have not liquidated the bank, and are
continuing to operate it on a day to day basis. And also
that his $250K "cannot be found on the books" any longer.
Just thought you'd like to know.
Do your own offsite backups of
your account stats. Most institutions provide downloads in
various formats like QuickBooks or Microsoft Money. I don't
know how valuable it would be in a "he said, she said"
situation, but it's better than nothing, and cheaper than a
forensic accountant. Do it now. "
Yeah, I have automatic backups going off here almost all the
time - having experienced some vicious attacks via the net, I
don't trust anyone with data - so we use rotating hard drives
(drive #1, Drive#2, etc, not rotating at 7,200 rpm you dunce...)
with the price of 1.5 terabyte drives down under $150,
there's really no excuse.
"I think it's time to put an end
to this. We had a Tea Party over taxation without
representation. Are we a nation of complete cowards and
pansies now? If we don't take control now, then when?
How p*ssed off do you have to be
to act upon this? When your kids don't eat? When your dog is
eaten by the neighbors?
You pay taxes? I sure the hell
do. Don't forget. Our new future leader approved the bailout
too, so don't tell me things are going to change. They
won't, at least not for the better. Not from him.
We sold ourselves somewhere down
the line. I don't know when it happened, but it happened.
Now, We The People are waiting for government to make things
better, and they just screwed us for CEO bailouts. Go back
to sleep if you want. This cannot happen without
ramifications from the leaders of this country, which
happens to be the citizens of the United States of America.
I will probably end up in
Guantanamo for this, and I don't give a flying f*ck. It's
time We The People took a real hard look at what our
government is doing, and hold them f*cking accountable. My
name is (withheld - G) , and I approve this message.
I figurer the new guy deserves a chance. But change?
About the only change I see so far is in my pocket.
Most folks don't
get a choice of what kind of life they're born into, perhaps because
it's a choice made at a 'spirit level;' which is blanked at birth.
But, whatever the reason, or however that process works, most
regular humans don't get to make too many choices about their starting
points in life. Like a cosmic golf game, you have to 'play it
where it lands' for the most part. Although fables and stories
about being 'rescued' from a poor opening shot are popular (such as the
the odds of Daddy Warbucks really showing up - checkbook in hand
to solve all your problems - are pretty close to zero. BUT, no
matter what society you happen to land in, there will be some
'golf-like' decisions you will be able to make. One of
these is to get the right answer to the question "Should I own or
should I rent this thing or that. Unfortunately, the answer
to this drifts around a fair bit, depending on the where and the
when context. Nonetheless, we can extract some
generalities decision-making by first figuring out who our "lifelords"
are and acknowledging their deal terms...
Not a Subscriber yet? It's just $40/Year: (Allow
48-hours for processing)
Review of this week's report:
"Dear George, Inspired by today's bulletin, I looked at the
business section of the NY Times, and read on page 6 Why the
Bear Is Alive and Well. The writer, Paul J. Lim, talked
about P/E ratios, and I felt very smug, having been made hip
to them by your writing. The reporter seems to confirm what
you've been saying, which shouldn't come in as a surprise.
It's just interesting to see something about what I just
read from you."
What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on
$10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all
going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might
like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get
pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit
www.liveontenthousand.com. Yep - still possible.
I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from
recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole
thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to
not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how
to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more
than that and do some active savings...
Click here for the page with more details on it.
I don't mean to start Friday off on a negative note, but
whenever I see things beginning to 'line up' in 5the headlines,
the chatter in the emails, plus what's coming in the
predictive linguistics from HalfPastHuman, I start to become
very uneasy and conservative in all investment decisions.
Particularly if these things all come together on a day when I
have been gaming out my next foray into the commodities market
with my broker JB.
I've been doing a fair bit of chart work over the past couple of
days trying to find the ideal entry point to go long on some
things that could do very well, even if the U.S. as rumors
flying around the 'net have it, the U.S. is forced to devalue
its currency by some amount in either mid/late December, or
sometime early in the new year. The reasons would be
obvious: We've been living a high and grand lifestyle at the
expense of the rest of the planet - we print up paper, and they
give us the goods. At some point, as monetary karma seems
about to teach, those kinds of excesses and abuses can come back
But let's not go there - or even into this morning's employment
report - just yet. Instead, let me give you the overview
of how things are 'coming together.' in most uncomfortable way:
The market action last week and into early this week was highly
suspect as the rally seemed to me to have the 'flavor' of one of
those pre-holiday rallies that can be found often around major
national holidays like Memorial Day, the Fourth of July, and so
on. It also on the charts looked like it was over &
done with on Wednesday and the market dropped about 900-points
in two days since. Although the futures were
pointing higher early today, that was in anticipation of the
employment numbers, which we'll get to in a minute. Keep
your slippers on.
A quick call to Robin Landry confirmed what I was worried about:
There are two counts, one of which would take us down to 5,800
and another that could take out 4,000 on the Dow by Christmas
that have his attention:
"Landry: If this is the
fifth wave down, then we should go down at a minimum
to the intraday lows of the other day. And I think that was
on 10/10 – and that would mean about 7,882. That’s the
minimum, but more likely would be a quick drop to
5,800 if this is the fifth to complete the first down.
My concern here is that the
best count using my indicators suggests that this fifth
wave down we’re in now is only completing the third wave
down. With another fourth wave rally, up to about this same
area (8,500-9,000 - GU) then another decline, to even lower
levels than lower than the 5,800.
That count would put us at
around 4,000 Dow level.
The bullish options – very short
term – is that we are still in this wave 4 and today’s
(Thursday's - G) decline is wave B with a rally for
wave E in the next day or so.
Then the fifth wave decline
starts (*I noted that the futures were rallying
in advance of the unemployment numbers - so this might fit -
The most interesting question is
whether this fourth wave is the fourth of the third wave and
the fifth wave down will follow, or if this is of a larger
degree. We do not know that yet…and anyone who makes big
bets in here that a long term bottom is in is either much
smarter than me, or has a direct pipeline to the Man
Upstairs, because I see no confirming technical evidence yet
that would indicate the first decline is over or even close
to coming to an end.
This is the one time, I would
sure like to be wrong because I don’t like what I’m seeing.
George: And that's
the building possibility of the Dow 4,000 by Christmas
Landry: Yes, Exactly.
This by itself doesn't lead me to believe yet - nor does it lead
Robin, to say with any certainty that Dow 4.000 by
Christmas is 'baked-in' yet, but it sure put my commodity call
option ideas to rest pretty quick, although because, like my
friend the Mogambo Guru, I keep thinking about more gold and
taking delivery of a mini contract is possible, although a bit
rich for my tastes.
second thing that got me to pondering the Dow becoming a lump
of coal in the Christmas stocking this year was an email
from a long time reader/correspondent who has been kind enough
to send me items of interest for more than a decade. He's
one of those really smart guys who used to follow the University
of Colorado Longwaves Econ postings back when it was still
around, so anyone who's got a 12-year attention span on
economics may be assumed to be no fool:
It looks like the crash is on.
I have had calls from a couple
of people today who follow astro cycles and apparently the
full moon on Nov 13th has some VERY NASTY astro
configurations. Its also a “supermoon” which is on a new or
full moon which occurs when the Moon is 90% or greater of
its closest approach to Earth.
The 2 super moons coming up are
November 13th and December 12th, and its my understanding
(working with a limited knowledge base) that the extreme
gravitational forces can cause all kinds of reactions,
I know you have the 13th/14th as
being really bad days, potentially, but wanted to mention
I also have a confidential
internal technical analysis report from one of Wall Streets
biggest. Believe me, I am NOT supposed to have this and it
must be treated confidentially, but they say SPX 660 and
there is an outside chance of 307. They are mostly using EW
and Fibonacci relationships to come up with their targets.
Remember my letter which you
published said 372-374.
Actually, I was trying to forget that, normally being an
optimistic kinda guy. Still, if we were to get a 'one last
pop of a rally - maybe based on some democorp chatter about
saving Detroit and passing out free stimulus money, some cheap,
currently way out of the money put options on an SPX down around
550 in January might be
cheaper than a trip to the gambling boats over in Bossier City,
Bossier City gambling, near as I figure exist for only two
reasons: Apparently some Texans don't have eTrade and
AmeriTrade accounts, and secondly becausesome Texan's
wivesdon't seem to enjoy sitting around watching quotes
on multiple monitors as much as they enjoy champagne, dinner and
a show. Go figure.
Although we're in a bit of a hiatus in the wake of the
elections, the predictive linguistics in the last series from
has another emotional 'release' period occur5ing from November
14th - ish to mid December, which is when the twin quakes are
coming in modelspace. One of the quakes seems to be South
American in flavor while the second/twin seems to be North
American. But the point is that in their work, 'markets'
just suck and the concept of a 'lockdown' of markets is in their
work. But which exchange? Who knows.
However, if you read around the net, various economic and
precious metals forums are speculating what would happen if
suddenly a large number of investors wanted to take physical
delivery of metals...that might make things interesting.
may not be a number-slinging genius when it comes to quantative
analysis, but I've come to the conclusion that if you know more
than 4-5 formulas, you're functionally useless as an economist;
formulas tend to blind people to common sense. In this
case, the common sense says "Why should there be a shortage
of gold and silver coins at retail while the price is going
down? That's an impossibility in a so-called 'free'
Common sense is screaming at me "Either the market isn't free
or Kitco's pulling our leg." And I don't think
some point, between now and the inauguration of the Obamanation
I expect gold and silver to resume their climb. What could
Aha! We are only a week from the start of the G-20
finance meetings in Washington. And, already, the
maneuvering to slap back the U.S. without imploding the whole
world's economy is getting underway. The headline flow
here is almost like watching the M&A deal flow on the Street.
Check these out:
we'll watch the footwork closely as the lead-in to next
weekend's G20. And, remember the predictive linguistics
November 14th date is an approximation. Plus or minus
several days. So, if we get a market collapse
come the middle of next week before the G20 or if it
comes the Monday following which would be the 17th, don't
gripe. The time machine's a bit rickety, which is fine because
if it weren't, it'd probably be made illegal, just like shooting
a sasquatch is.
This last - the bit about the bankster's International Monetary
Fund" is the one that I am particularly keen on. While my
friend Jas Jain has been impeccably right so far on Treasuries
being the place to be for the past year or so, my trust
personal attorney/consigliore tells me that his work on how the
global economy all 'ends badly'
work, which he compiled back in the 1976-1979 period, suggested
that this time around, the Great Depression would begin with a
major round of deflation but would spin around as money
was printed up globally and would end in a round of
also made another pretty good observation: The collapse
points tended to happen on a 39-calendar day, or 55-calendar day
basis from significant inflation points.
What has his attention now is this: There are plenty of reports
floating about the net on how another hue pile of money is due
to come out of hedge funds starting around December 31st.
And this means what? That the hedge funds will have to
unload enough assets in order to pony up the dough their
stakeholders are trying to get out at year end.
- being an attorney and CPA he also says be aware that we could
normally expect that there'd be some tax selling around
mid-November (who me in past years? Gosh, who would
have thought?) in order to avoid the 30-days wash sale rule.
I don't play that game lately, but it used to be that if
you had a stock that was a particular turkey you would
sell it before Thanksgiving so you could book the loss on it for
the current tax year, and then buy it back in the new year if
you still liked it - claiming a loss for IRS purposes.
the really ancient times, people would sell in the last
few days of the year, book the loss and buy the stock right back
- which caused a bit of volatility, but more importantly to
Uncle, screwed him out of potential income tax revenue
(short term gains being taxed at a higher rate) so the term 'tax
wash sale" came to be.
Sooo...what does this mean in practical terms?
Let's see here: We've got some normal seasonal pressure
down on the market to book losses - and plenty of them to book
this year, notes my consigliore.
Then, you've got a normal low that comes (if you stare at enough
data, as he has) around the Winter Solstice, December 21st is a
Sunday this year, so either Friday the 19th or
Monday December 22nd would be likely lows...
says my consigliore, back up 39 calendar days from there, and
you should have the start of the major trend to get to the
Oops: November 13th - close enough to what the bots have been
Now, all we need to get there would be a nice rally between now
and early next week to set up "The Perfect Score" for The
People's Economist to make a little money.
Gee, do you think my crazy vision of loading up on S&P put
options around November 12th/13th, selling them at the December
low, and then rolling into commodity long positions about the
winter solstice will work?
Tell you what: I'll put a couple of large on it and report
the results to Peoplenomics.com subscribers. With any
luck, I'll run $2-grand into enough to buy
a nice used air-cooled Carrera for my birthday in late
Like I tell people at the local dispensary: Is this a
great world or what? Who would have thought we'd live in a
world where we'd be able to trade next-to-worthless paper for
perfectly good rum - or maybe Porsches? Let the rally
begin! Then 4,000 on the Dow by Christmas and the roll-out
of a new global economic order, run by banksters behind the
scenes! I get it!
Disclaimer: Don't try this in your personal account.
You're likely to lose your butt. Buy something useful
instead. Hiking boots, food, seeds, a mortgage
payment...something useful. Latte for the boss so you can
keep your job...that kinda thing...
Those Unemployment Numbers...
here you go:
"Nonfarm payroll employment fell
by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose from
6.1 to 6.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the
U.S. Department of Labor reported today. October's drop in
payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August
and 284,000 in September, as revised. Employment has fallen
by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008; over half of
the decrease has occurred in the past 3 months. In October,
job losses continued in manufacturing, construc- tion, and
several service-providing industries. Health care and mining
continued to add jobs.
Unemployment (Household Survey
The unemployment rate rose by
0.4 percentage point to 6.5 percent in October, and the
number of unemployed persons increased by 603,000 to 10.1
million. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed
persons has increased by 2.8 mil- lion, and the unemployment
rate has risen by 1.7 percentage points. (See table A-1.)
The unemployment rates for adult
men (6.3 percent), adult women (5.3 percent), whites (5.9
percent), and Hispanics (8.8 percent) rose in October. The
jobless rates for teenagers (20.6 percent) and blacks (11.1
percent) were little changed. The unemployment rate for
Asians in October was 3.8 percent, not seasonally ad-
justed. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number
of persons who lost their job and did not ex- pect to be
recalled to work rose by 615,000 to 4.4 million in October.
Over the past 12 months, the size of this group has
increased by 1.7 million. "
Looking at the CES
Birth/.Death Model - which is where the statisticians try to
guesstimate where jobs were created or lost showed a gain of
23-thousand in trade, transportation, and utilities which flies
in the face of a Boeing Strike and layoffs in the automakers,
but who am I to question such genius?
Despite the headlines that the
rate bolts to 14-year high of 6.5 percent" the futures on
the financial channels still point to a higher open...so all
green on my rally till next Wednesday idea...which will give me
time to wire some money into a trading account...yee haw!
Elaine and I keep watching our FUR - family unemployment rate.
It's running 25% presently.
here's how to calculate your own FUR: Take the number of
kids you have who should be in the workforce. Between
Elaine and I that's 8. Now divide that into the number who
are unemployed: in our case, that's 2. 2 divided by 8 is
.25 - or 25% unemployment.
Send in your personal FUR's and we'll see if they are anything
lie the government's report....
know you're a 'winner' in the crisis if you get your whole
household through the crisis with no house or job loss.
told friends years ago that I wasn't going to do a 401(k)
program because I didn't think government could be trusted to a)
keep their hands off them and b) not tax them as promised.
Simple put: It's enough of a pile of money that the taxocrats of
both 'nominal' parties are eyeing the dough as a boon
to the Social(ist) Security Administration.
With that as background, go read the whole article in the
Carolina Journal Online about how "Dems
Target Private Retirement Accounts". Now
remember the old saying: "A man's home and property are not safe
when a legislature is in session."
snip and save section ---
Stressful Change States
Here's an email from a reader that has a great lesson in it:
"Dear Mr.Ure, We (as a company) fired 10 people today The
cuts were top to bottom. “bail out” is a short term fix.
Heads down management is in full blown implement. Flailing
windmill set mark, and go……………………. I'm moving to a different
office tomorrow. My new gentlemen farmer image bonds me to
my wife and allows me to Bid on some 10 acres on a property
tax sale that went bad……"
the lesson is what?
Even though we may not like the potential future coming
at us, a strong bond with another human - and in a larger sense
the power of the family which is a who 'master-mind group' of
its own, can get you through darned near anything. United
Yo Ho Ho
and a Bottle of Scotch?
Scotch cruise has made it into Forbes as a travel option....sailing
and Scotch? You can get pretty much he same effect by
boating in the San Juan Islands of Washington State and into
Canada in the fall or very early spring - cold as heck.
Maybe in the summer, the coast of Scotland would be
hospitable...which explains the timing? Gets me to
thinking about hot buttered Scotch as a weekend science project,
Sometimes when I come into the office, the first headline I see
sets the mood for the day. Today, it was humorous...to the
point of laughter. The headline is "Administration
speeding up on economic problems" and I guessed it could be
taken one of two ways: The wry way or the wrong way.
Faced with a headline like, what was so laughable was that the
action was a speeding up of the money giveaway - that gunpoint
generosity being forced on banks, many of whom are specifically
not interested but are taking the dough for fear of getting some
kind of a 'stigma' if they don't. Yup - responsible fiscal
management is sure being 'stigmatized,' alright...
So, no, not to worry, the administration is not speeding
up the push for foreclosure moratoriums - they're just speeding
up the bond sales and funds of the $700 (but really $850)
billion of bailout (and pork) which was rammed through CONgress,
and which I credit in no small measure with defeating the
Not to you worry too much, but how would you like this for a
scenario: Market drifts down and then on November 13/14 or
Monday the 17th, the market crashes through the old/recent lows
and drops to 7,200 or 5,800 on the Dow? Yuk.
Possible, but yuk...
A friend, who is the manager of a small national bank told me in
an email this week that the federal bank examiners showed up
this week and the head of the audit team tried the old
light-hearted humor approach: "We're from the government and
we're here to help..." Seems no one cracked a smile
because the bank examiners are notorious nitpickers at the
operating level. Upstairs? That's where the
Greenspans and Bernankes and Paulsons of the world were not
being as scrupulous. But no news there.
This is one of those items where if George were running the
world (I mean this one, not the other one), the
only lawyer bills which would be reimbursed would be for those
found innocent. Again, reason enough to bar me from holding
office. Just too damn simple and common-sensical.
This weekend in our subscribers-only
report, we go on a quest for a new economic system - not sure
what it will be yet, but the problem is to evolve from the
current one to something that is not as subject to the
concentration of powers and wealth that have spawned the massive
I expect we'll bounce around the Economic Triangle formed by
Adam Smith, Karl Marx, and the
Society for Creative Anachronism. This last is a
reference to those people who keep alive many of the medieval
arts (blacksmithing, weaving, open fire cooking and a lower tech
lifestyle. Dressed up in restored and newly made armor,
the words of
Leslie Fish's song "Serious Steel" brings up visions of "rattling,
clanking down the road, the War is going home..."
A case could well be made that in order to be best prepared for
what lies ahead, lessons from the past should be remembered.
As the cong continues in one part: "The very next town,
that we came to, they had no fuel at all. The garage man
said he could change our cars to run on alcohol. But 5,000 cars
would take as long as to grow a crop of grain. So we made
a deal and moved on out in a horse-drawn wagon train..."
Whether the 'summer of hell 2009' gets so extreme that wearing
of armor makes sense should be revealed over the next year.
I'd be the first to admit that a complete breakdown of
the financial system would be a horrific event. When you
think about it, everything comes to a screeching halt.
Firemen, policemen, the Port Office, airlines, farmers...who
works for free? And if money suddenly and precipitously
loses value, what have you got? I mean besides 300-million
very angry and well-armed people on your hands?
I suppose that's the kind of thing whispered in back rooms to
scare lawmakers into their recent decisions to bailout bankers;
"Do this thing for us.." in almost Mafioso tones, "...or
we'll trash your world." Although I'm not so
sure that hasn't already started anyway.
Is it possible that a new President could inaugurate fundamental
and meaningful change within the existing power structure?
Many conspiracy theorists point to
President Kennedy's signing of Executive Order 1110 in June of
1963 - which would have put the federal government directly
into the money business in competition with the Fed - as
evidence that messing with the elite carries a high price tag.
Would it be asking too much for have 100% transparency on the
seriousness of our condition as a country - which is another way
of saying lately, our national economic condition? Admit
that it's built on debt, some of which is false and has to be
cleaned out like bad tooth decay? This money giveaway
stuff is like putting a filling in without doing the drilling
out of the bad, seems to me.
Back to where I was going: The point of of the Peoplenomics
piece is that the major economic benefit of machines
continues to accrue almost solely to the ownership class.
Not to the humans who are replaced by machines.
I mean think about this: If we could build machines that did
everything for us - drove car, flew airplanes (I mean beyond
Cat-3 IFR, right), grew and distributed all goods...such that
there were no jobs left, who would have money? I
mean all the money. You got it: whoever owns
the automated systems. You could have 100% unemployment
and zero purchasing power.
Why do I bring this up now? Oh! This morning's big
economic number is the Labor Department's Productivity report.
1.3 percent in the business
sector and 1.1 percent in the nonfarm business sector.
In both sectors, productivity
gains were smaller than in the first two quarters of 2008,
and were the result of hours at work falling faster than
output. (See table A) . In manufacturing, productivity
changes in the third quarter were:
-1.0 percent in manufacturing,
3.3 percent in durable goods manufacturing, and -7.3 percent
in nondurable goods manufacturing.
Manufacturing productivity fell
for the second consecutive quarter; the third-quarter
decline was concentrated in the nondurable goods sector,
whereas the second-quarter decrease was due to a drop in
durable goods productivity. Output and hours in
manufacturing, which includes about 12 percent of U.S.
business sector employment, tend to vary more from quarter
to quarter than data for the aggregate business and nonfarm
"Business sector output per hour
grew 1.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008 as output
decreased 1.5 percent and hours worked by all
persons--employees, proprietors, and unpaid family
workers--fell 2.8 percent (seasonally adjusted annual
rates). The decline in output was the largest since the
third quarter of 2001, when output fell 3.1 percent. Hours
had not dropped as much in one quarter since the first
quarter of 2002, (-3.1 percent). From the third quarter of
2007 to the third quarter of 2008, productivity increased
1.8 percent; output edged up 0.3 percent and hours decreased
1.5 percent in the business sector.
Hourly compensation in the
business sector increased at an annual rate of 4.7 percent
during the third quarter of 2008. This measure includes
wages and salaries, supplements, employer contributions to
employee benefit plans, and taxes. Real hourly compensation,
which takes into account changes in consumer prices,
decreased by 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2008.
Changes in unit labor costs
approximate the change in hourly compensation less the
change in productivity. In the third quarter of 2008, unit
labor costs rose at a 3.4 percent annual rate. The implicit
price deflator for business sector output, which reflects
changes in both unit labor cost and unit nonlabor payments,
rose 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008."
May be a little early for the 'pikes and armor' but come to
think of it, I don't recall every seeing anyone dressed up as a
nobleman at the renaissance fairs I've been to... other than a
few folks working knights.....(sorry, couldn't help myself).
With gold doing much better than the Dow (comparatively) over
the past day or two, stories like "Mother
of all short squeezes for gold?" are popping up.
Probably not without reason...since the price of right now
deliverable is has been vastly different than the so-called
As mentioned in my earlier
correspondence, I am an avid reader of your site and have
recently become a subscriber to Peoplenomics to show my
appreciation for your hard work.
Frankly, I feel your dismissal
of the USA electing the first African American president and
expectation that we will only see more of the same, is a bit
on the defeationest side. Maybe you are right and as in your
example "if the car does not get you the piano will" is the
way things work, but that would entirely defeat the very
purpose of free will that each of us is expected to have.
I for one can tell you that
there was genuine joy and celebration almost everywhere in
the world, to see this bright young man elected to the most
powerful post in the world and unlike most Americans who
have hardly traveled outside their State and would not
understand the difference between Cairo and Kandhar, this
man had his primary education in a good school in Indonesia,
is definitely smart and articulate.
An example was the question he
posed to the new Prime Minister of Pakistan -- Why they were
wasting their time on Kashmir when they has so many internal
security and financial problems to solve over and above the
problems on the Afghan border. I can definitely tell you
this man understands what is going on in the rest of the
world, unlike most of his predecessors. While no man can be
responsible for others and it is not fair to put all the
burden on his shoulders, I do feel even a few good men
making the right choices can make all the difference...
I was aware from your site that
Cliff and you attended the Coast to Cost radio show and it
was only yesterday that I obtained a streaming copy of the
broadcast from a site (as I live in Asia and consequently do
not have direct access to C2C radio broadcast.
It was only on listening to the
broadcast that the bigger picture of what you guys
anticipate happening in the immediate future and going
forward several years is beginning to become clear. My best
guess at this point is that leaving all the financial mess
and related problems aside, you guys are planning for an
extinction level event taking place in the coming 3-4 years?
or is it limited to the good 'ol USA / Europe / Mid-East?
If you guys are correct (and my
guess is not too far off the mark), can you kindly clarify
the anticipated timetable for the Costal Event you briefly
mentioned on the show in reference to both of you building
boats / arks? If your subscribers are to plan to survive
this event, many of us will need time to build / buy
suitable boats that may help us, particularly those of us
that live in costal areas. From the information on webbots
on the *** site, this is expected on November 14 and
onwards. PLEASE CONFIRM.
Also, as mentioned at the show
and on several posts, both of you expect a MILITARY type
component also in the coming period. Can you narrow down the
time frame, the area of conflict and if it includes the use
of N w e a p o n s and/or W M D 's.
Thanks and keep up the good
OK, just so we're clear on this: I'm not a
'defeatist" because I am not out partying in the street over an
Obama victory. Far from it. The problem is that the
economy has already set up on a glide which could turn into a
crash as the year goes on. The "feel good" aspects of
having someone in office who may have more street sense may be
good, but if he inherits an economy that's already been flushed,
I don't see the cause to party, sorry. Just some damn hard
work over the next year for the whole nation.
As far as the global coastal event, it could be a 'slow motion'
kind of thing, but Cliff is working on his boat and I'm looking
for a 23-25 foot trailerable swing keel. This makes sense
under my 'dual use'; approach to life. If the state of
Texas becomes a huge reef, I would have a way out. And if
not, I can still go sailing on the local lakes and reservoirs.
The South and Texas have many huge bodies of water and sailing
is a joy on everything from a pond on up...
As far as extinction level events out there a ways in the data,
remember that it will be late 2009 before we get to zoom in on
mid 2010 with any degree of resolution, and then mid 2010 before
high clarity of 2011 happens, and so on. If the
internet is still up, we can deal with those issues when we get
In the meantime, things like
Backwoods Home, Mother
Earth News, the back issues of the
Anachronist, and doing some gardening seems likely to have a
much higher personal satisfaction payback than buying and
parking permanently in front of a 65" DLP and BlueRay set up.
But it does depend on whether you're a participant or a
spectator of life, I suppose... I'm striving for a semi-balanced
Now that that's over...I wasn't among those who stayed up
last night to watch television and see "who won?" Didn't
need to...the arising of the Obamanation was something that has
been pretty much 'in-the-bag' for the past couple of months,
although I think the chief time monk at
was pretty good about not saying it too publicly in advance.
The 'tell' was there, however, talking to him - the reference
here and there to the "Ombamanation" - and how regardless of who
won, the ultimate outcome for the country wouldn't be
substantially different, it seemed. One HPH subscriber
told me: "The web bot is batting 1000!!!!! Seat belt
fastened! Pies made! Revolution on!" But we knew
And that's the problem we face in a nutshell: Although
there's apparently some latitude in how the future plays out,
piscis between alternative future sets seems to mostly lead
to the same kind of outcomes. Maybe a little early here,
or pushed back a bit there, but in many ways the 'moving finger
writes'/Universe seems to hit what in golf would be a long ball
that may take a different trajectory, sliced or hook, but still
ends up on the same green.
Or, to put it differently, its the old problem of a man, knowing
about the future and seeing his own death in an auto accident,
decides on his last day to avoid anything having to do with
cars, only to find that a piano is dropped on his head by
careless movers while he's walking to work. Same outcome,
just a little different way of getting to his same ultimate
I keep scratching my head about this one - although reanalyzing
that there are some future outcomes which are so evenly probable
that time jacking could work; e.g. bending the future
this way or that, but that comes with its own set of costs, as
So here we are on the 'day after' and we still have all of the
same problems we had on Monday. What's changed is a
slightly more positive attitude about the possibility of
change and with that, a little pause in the markets' decline
until November 14th (plus or minus) before an expected
resumption of downside action into January/March of next year,
if my interpretation of the data is correct. The time
monks don't bother with market direction - since they don't play
that game. Instead, it's the emotional release they look
From a 'paradigm' perspective, really little is likely to change
until we start to see how the Obamanation takes shape.
Summers and Emanuel are considered by some to be top picks for
chief of staff and Treasury Secretary. But nothing is
in the bag: A couple of New Jersey democorps are saying
former Goldman exec turned governor John Corzine is being
considered for Treasury Secretary. Seems to me that here
lately, the major qualification for that post has been
having a stint at Goldman Sachs on the résumé.
Again, not the kind of details to be concerned with today:
The presidential deal is done, and we now go through a couple of
weeks of appointee-madness and pretty much the whole phonebook
of DC democorps seems likely to be proposed for this position,
Again, the presidency change seems in order, but for now, the
paradigm remains mostly intact: America is still living on
the consumer-driven economy model, still consuming vastly more
than our individual shares of global resources, still 'ruling
the world with paper assets' and all the rest; the karmic debt
continues to build.
All of which wouldn't be so bad, except that much of that growth
is likely to come from improved 'business productivity.
While we await the Friday release of increased productivity
figures for the US, I've noted in the past how increase
productivity usually comes with a decline in the number of
people working. That's the topic this week for our
readers - as we go looking for ways to dial in the economic
system so that it becomes more human-centric rather than
underwriting of investment in machinery which displaces
The headlines about the current economic malaise keep piling up
like the leaves at this time of year:
The key thing to remember is that the wars are a major economic
stimulus, and the short-term bailout/buyoff of the banksters has
pretty much run its course. All that money to the AIG's of
the world is likely offshore and as soon as the next bump/crisis
in the hedge fund world comes along, the counterparty failures
will occur anyway; the massive taxpayer-back infusions having
done nothing more than let the big fish skate to leave the
smaller fish hung out to dry while buying the incumbent tax &
oil party a little time. Now, times up because more
failures are already in the pipeline. That the Obamanation
will be tested immediately after taking office is a foregone
conclusion. That's what's coming and if you don't
believe it, your grasp of how big 'hot money' works
is sadly deficient.
I'd expect the market to pull back from its recent optimism
today realizing, as we do around here, that sometimes 'the more
things change, the more they stay the same.' Start of a
paradigm shift? Ask me when we get to next summer whether
it's anywhere near enough...doubt it.
The republicorps have managed to set up a handoff of a "
feeble economy awash in red ink." and no telling how much
further damage these latter day socialists will be able to do
between now and inauguration day, lame ducks or not.
Several readers have offered that Obama did not take lobbyist or
industry association money - so my expectations that little will
change may be way off base... I figure we'll see if there's been
any major paradigm shifting six months from now... I'm a firm
believer in Dr. Doom (Marc Faber's) view of things,
namely that the future likely holds stat bankruptcy for the U.S.
Paradigm shifting is spendy.
When George Bush won in 2004 the mainstream media busily bandied
about the word 'mandate'. Not hearing that this morning.
Say, you don't think the PowersThatBe are a little scared, do
you? President change is one thing...paradigm change is
something else again...
So here's one to re-ponder (if that's a word): Is voting
for a candidate with no chance of winning a 'throw away'?
"I take exception to the notion
that a vote for a third party is a 'throw away' vote. We
have been brainwashed into believing that we have to vote
for the lesser of two evils. We should be voting for who we
think will best lead our country. We should not allow
ourselves to be governed by the fear that the bad guy is
going to win.
The whole damned thing is just a
Maybe he means a real 'sham.' Here's the thing: The
duopoly has a vested interest in limiting the number of
political parties and choices in America - and it has been going
on how long? One reader suggested that if America was
really a democratic republic, there should be 8-10 parties
minimum in order to encompass the wide range of interests of the
I can almost see a design pattern here: If here are two
parties and 500 political action committees/major lobby groups
inside the beltway, that might be the equivalent of 10
parties and 100 PACs. Just a thought, but from what I've
read the size, power, and influence of lobbyists seems somewhat
reduced in nations where there is a broader range of political
choice. Curiously, we have made political influence
peddling a major industry.
Given that, and given that no one pays much mind to what voters
want anyway, is a 'protest' vote for an unelectable a
'throw-away' or not? Like I said - re-pondering required.
But mine will be shaded by the recent outrageous despise for the
public's will shown in the bankster bailouts /socialization of
One of our readers, experimenting with their weight before and
after showering, sent in this note:
George, my scale's lithium battery just died, so I imagine
that was the reason for the strange two-pound "dirt" factor.
I'll resume the experiment next week after I get a new
LOL...People don't usually think about high-resolution and
NIST-traceable standards for
home weight measurement, LOL. Does anyone make a scale at
anything near affordable that will do a 20th of a pound?
"Weight loss occurs during a hot shower from water loss
(sweat). Ask any wrestler that has to lose a pound quick!
Looks like for proper research you will also have to take
cold showers and record results. This will also help prepare
you for the next survival situation. Thanks for all your
Having never had the inclination to learn the shower habits of
wrestlers, I didn't know this - but I never shower in water
Here's a dandy:
I believe I have began to gain the ability to tap into the
subconscious awareness, "the Force" so to speak. For my
entire life I have studied martial arts and history, as well
as spirituality and universal balance. In the summer of 2000
I began receiving prophetic images in my dreams which I
originally used to write a silly movie script about a
post-apocalyptic world that had reverted to feudal like
societies. The prelude to my movie script went something
like this. In the year 2012, following a period of conflict
and turmoil between the United States and the Middle east, a
massive nuclear war will be unleashed, completely reshaping
the world as we know it and creating an entirely new planet,
new continents, new oceans, new polar ice caps. Massive
destruction and death will ensue and the population of the
world will dwindle close to extinction. This silly movie
script became a very scary thing to me on 9/11/2001 when war
between the US and the Middle east did in fact erupt. I was
still not entirely convinced that I was actually seeing the
future in my dreams and continued writing my movie as if it
were nothing more then a future box office epic destined to
bring me millions of dollars. I began researching history
and religion and myths and legends and prophecies and soon
began to realize that I had tapped into something out of
this world. I began finding connections between things in
the past that prior historians had not detected, I began
realizing that this world is ruled by those who hold
absolute power. A secret world gov't that determines our
public leaders and our national policies, not only in the
USA but in all world governments. I suppose you could call
them Illuminati, agents of the dark Lord who prepare the
planet for his return. The movie grew into an epic of over
six movies with one underlying story, and not long after
that it became even longer as I had to explain more and more
about how and why things were occurring the way they were,
The script now is composed of 3 major segments, the first
segment contains 4 movie scripts, the second contains six,
and the last one has who knows how many, the scripts are far
from completion, and I fear they will never be finished. I
fear I am writing a Divine history of the universe, a
history written from a god's point of view, a history
written by someone who exists outside of time and space,
someone who is not bound by their power. It is very
different then the history you learned in school, and this
is because the history we learned was fabricated by the
Illuminati who strive to keep their dominance and existence
a secret, no one wants to hear that the world is merely a
giant "risk" board for 2 Illuminati overlords. I finally
realized my true potential as a prophetic individual when in
2006 I was driving through my town, a town that had been a
small farming town of just 800 people 15 years ago, now a
growing metropolis of over 80,000. Three years earlier I had
experienced one of my most vivid prophetic dreams, so real I
felt like I was there, so real I even had physical wounds
that I had received in the dream when I awoke. The dream
started with me waking up as if it were a normal day,
heading out to my car and preparing to travel to I assume
either work or school at the local university. However when
I reached my car in the dream a small group of armed men
came running down my street, one lobbed a grenade towards my
vehicle, which exploded and caused my car to explode which
caused me to be blown back and seriously wounded by one of
my tires. I was knocked unconscious in the dream, and awoke
in the dream in my basement. All around me were neighbors
who were armed and seemed to be very afraid. Then suddenly
I'm in my town center walking down the street towards a very
unique building that I did not recognize at the time. The
building had a large circular roof, kind of like a water
tower, the UFO looking kind. The building was engulfed in
flames as were the surrounding buildings, which some I did
recognize as being from my home town. In 2006 I saw the
building for the first time the building that I had seen
burning in my dream three years before. That's when I knew I
really had prophetic potential. I don't really know what
compelled me to write to you, I guess it was sort of your
computer's predictions which kind of make sense to me,
actually they probably make better sense to me then they do
to most, cuz like you're web bot computer program, I too can
somewhat use "the force" I guess I'm just worried that
because if my writings are in fact the future, it means that
in the next few months we are going to see the start of WW3,
which is merely the tip of the ice berg compared to the
threats that will face the planet in the millennium to
follow, culminating with another Big Bang event that will
bring an ultimate end to our universe and the development of
a much larger multiverse, 12 times more complex and 12 times
longer than our own. I now hold a vast amount of information
in my head, I can tell you how our universe was created, how
it will end, and what will occur within it, I can tell you
what existed before our universe, how it was created and how
it came to an end with a Big Bang that created our own
universe, and I can even attempt to tell you how the next
big bang will create an entirely new universe. Well I hope
you find it interesting, what I have told you, I was also
wandering if you could use your program to look up any
specific words that I feel will be quite relevant for future
events, these words and phrases are listed below. I tried
the same thing with the Bible Code people but they just blew
me off, I hope you will not be as narrow-minded as they
were. I only seek to save the world, no personal profit in
it for me, just trying to take some responsibility because
it seems that I may have great power. -Syntekia/ Syntekian/
Syntek -The Species of Man kind -Genetic Dragons -Dragon
Knights -Demonic Army -Demonic Wars -Nuclear Holocaust
-Sinking of Antarctica -Polar Shift/relocation -The Earth
Alliance -Tecine Revolution -Illuminati Reemergence
-Templarian Society -Demon Gem -Holy Shield -Syntekian
Guardian -Syntekian Devils -Mystic Epoch -Dragotaine Serum
-Demon Portal/Tazmania Island -Arkian Covenant -Spiritual
Rebirth -Sequelia Siclair -Sequelia Quintessia -Dagonia/
Dagonet -Mana Tree -Mana Souls -Atlantis
Well, couple of things: First - sounds like a dandy series
of scripts to read - and if want to publish them, consider
publishing them and selling them as one of our Peoplenomics
books (shared royalties to cover my costs). Then, on the
matter of the words, the linguistics work of HalfPastHuman is
not 'word' oriented that way - in other words, we can't
plug in a term like "Atlantis' and roll it forward, sorry.
Judging by the tone of your note, however, I'd say you may be
starting to touch 'the stream' - and once you start doing that,
one of the first discoveries is that there aren't really
adequate 'words' to describe events - as you no doubt now
realize. I suppose that's why religion/teachers/seers over
a long period of history have used parables, poetic forms, and
stories in order to try and encapsulate or convey thoughts,
moral issues, emotions, and decisions.
All that aside, I'll keep your note on file as we do get the odd
passerby through here who occasionally knows someone who knows
someone who might be able to get you along that movie track.
Problem of course is that time's against the project...
I think I was a major market news exec too long. I tend to
look at the 'flow of news' as something akin to a large
Vegas-style sleight of hand show. While folks' attention
is turned elsewhere, the real story is likely to be going
on somewhere else. Seen it many times.
Take today's non-choice presidential content: Both
candidates receive the bulk of their money from corporate
sponsors, both have no plans to immediately end the wars, and
neither has any strong endorsement of true 'hands off'
Speaking of which, my neighbor across the road asked me if I was
voting for the socialist candidate in the election, to
which I replied "Oh, mean the republicorp one of the democorp
The problem as I explained it (being politely mindful that I
might raise his blood pressure) is that I have never seen such
socialistic behavior in America as the recent bailouts by the
republicorps spending to save their buddies down on Wall Street.
But then again, the other candidate is likely to do as
much redistribution of wealth - or more, but maybe a bit down
the foodchain - but he doesn't like guns, by reports.
So what's a fellow to do? I mean besides 'throw away' a
vote on a third party candidate, even though the most credible
one will not be on the ballot?
There are number of scenarios being spammed around the net,
ranging from rabid rightwing talk of rioting in the streets to
equally rabid leftwing talk of stolen elections. There's
also never-ending speculation about what could happen if the
U.S. Supreme Court hears and were to uphold a challenge to
Obama's citizenship. But while it makes good viral emails,
I'd figure the real odds are extremely low. Lower, than
say, a close enough vote here or there to cause recount claims..
More likely would be an echo of 2000. Picture if you will
what the mood of the country would be if Obama were to win the
popular vote and lose the electoral vote. Now that one
might get messy. And as if to put a little 'backbone' to
it, The Nation headlines today that "No
one should concede a contested election".
Still, it's with that kind of 'matters little' attitude - not to
mention that the linguistics over at
indicate that the specific winner of the election doesn't matter
much to the ultimate outcome of things (like the summer of hell
in 2009) - that I choose to sit back with a wider view and see
what the BIG stories are that as sliding under the radar,
preoccupying the talking heads on the Cyclops, while the grand
distraction is played out.
Turns out, you don't have to look very far.
The story that should be pushing for equal footing with the
presidential contest is work that the "U.S.
mulls expanding 'rescue' to more firms" as the Treasury and
Fed team up with new ways to pump money into the 'walking dead'
Not only are reports holding to the myth that the bailout was a
$700-billion dollar deal - when it was $850-billion and yes, the
pork is a deal cost too, so I count it, but beyond that the
republicorp socialists are now looking at writing fat checks to
outfits like GE and CIT Group.
And down further. Still, the Grand Distraction will make
it seem like change is possible, until the votes are
counted and the almost predictable controversy erupts.
Nevertheless, the transition of America to a highly socialist
Checkbook Republic, ruled by PACs and industry groups (e.g.
special interests) seems pretty much complete.
Based on that, the market should rally strongly a bit further.
It's like a "Heads I win, tails you lose" proposition anymore.
Malinvestment is being rewarded like never before in history.
Carried to its extreme - as most trends are - we might as well
start boarding up the college Business Schools right now.
What's the point of learning about corporate ethics and how to
manage profits and losses, when we're becoming a country where
folks get to win regardless of losses and where ethics are sold
for votes and 'support" of various specialty groups?
The mind leaps with the mergers and acquisitions possibilities:
Trimble and Magellan could go after Limited Brands -
which owns Victoria's Secret. It's too early to
speculate who'd come out...er... on top.
I've been watching this HFCS change develop for more than a year
since it popped out of modelspace in the HPH work.
Reacting to the anti-HFCS movement,
Karo (syrup) Lite is being rolled out. I plan to pick
up a bottle and read the ingredient list next time I go to
town...curious where the sweet comes from... didn't see it in
the press release.
Christmas Gifts Department
Mystic Caverns in Arkansas is for sale on eBay. With a
$900,000 starting price and 15,000 visitors per year, I pencil
it out to a little over $4-bucks a person just to service the
debt. Still, it could be the ultimate tourist destination
and fallout shelter. Long as New Madrid is quiet.
I'm not exactly a 'spare the rod and spoil the child' type, but
there are times when I wonder if the national fascination with
catering to kids isn't just a little overdone. Latest case
in point comes to us today from south London where we read how "foot
massages calm unruly pupils." With all due respect to
the massage therapists of the planet, this takes playing footie
with discipline to a whole new level..
Seems I'm not the only one interested in how much weight I gain
in the shower from apparent water absorption. Here's an
Your experimental proposal on
water absorbing into the skin is very interesting. I am a
research scientist, so this grabbed my attention. However, I
think some controls are in order. Here's some suggestions:
1) make sure that the
environmental conditions of your bathroom scale are
unaffected by the humidity/temperature in the shower room.
Place it in a different room altogether. 2) take triplicate
weights both before / after the shower and average them
(also calculate the standard deviation of the three
measurements if you really want to go all the way).
With several months worth of
data, you should be able to determine whether your water
absorption hypothesis is valid!!!
Good luck, and thanks for your
And another email:
"George I've been doing the
before/after shower weigh-in religiously for several years
and about 80% of the time, the after weight is about .2 to
.4 LESS THAN the before weigh-in.
Hmmm...maybe you're just washing off
a lot more dirt? And then there's this:
"Not sure as to quantity
absorbed but I have heard that moisturizer will be many
times more effective if applied to the skin after
shower/bath and before the skin has a chance to dry out
completely. Its something about sealing the moisture into
the skin and it seems to work. The same thing applies to
hair if using no-rinse type products. This could come in
handy when more people are heating with wood/coal stoves or
campfires if the Mad Max scenario comes to pass. Although
soft skin and dry, flyaway hair may not be a top priority at
that time, it may cut down on the cracked and bloody feet
from those hiking boots that were not broken in properly.
I went to a very expensive
dermatologist a number of years back and she said advised me
that best way to keep skin moist was to shower and then put on
some plain white Crisco on to seal in moisture.
gave up the practice after experiencing difficulty determining
where the French fries or fried chicken stopped and my
dermo-lady suggested I see an ophthalmologist - good idea - and
I might get down that far on my to-do list one of these first
days, if I could ever find the damn list.
There was a note in the last
Past Human ALTA report (or it may have been in a background
briefing with Cliff) that there was some mention of a 'terrorist
caught' or terrorist on the lamb kind of story out of
Germany...seems it popped up in immediacy values in August or
September sometime. This is one of those little stories
that we often just look at the reports (which seem to do a
better than chance job of looking at the future) and think "Oh,
so this is what modelspace was telling us..." and go on.
In this case, a "Wanted
German Terrorist Surfaces on al Qaeda Video" didn't get much
notice in the US, but the story nevertheless occurred.
I mention this because it's the little stuff - often not quite
precisely right in some aspect, but appear at the
appointed time, that keeps me so fascinated with the reports.
With the latest HPH data gathering run underway, I have gotten a
few emails from folks asking, in so many words, "What was the
big deal about your October 7th date and why did I buy all this
The answer is both simple, yet complex: The model always
tends to err on the side of 'extreme' for the reason that it
seems to sense future media buzz...and the media buzz in the
aftermath of a story is often much more emotional (sometimes
almost hysterical at times) in tone, more than the actual event
warrants, especially as a future events fades into future
history. Also, I mentioned many times that October 7th was
an 'around there" date.
So what good is the project? A lot, it turns out:
Suppose you had decided to close out all stock positions a
couple of trading days before the "October 7th" range.
That would have meant closing out at Dow October 3 at 10,325.
Then, if you had decided not to wade back in until three trading
days after, you could have gotten back into the market well
under Dow 8,000. A 20% swing to the downside is worth
avoiding, I'd guess, and if the whole truth is revealed (and why
not?), I managed to do fine in an S&P put in the period.
With the baseline report for the ALTA .report which will look
out to about September of 2009 on the table, I don't think it
would be unreasonable to divulge that around November 14th
through Mid December when the 'twin quakes' pop up, we could be
looking at another market slide of some seriousness, although be
mindful the model doesn't predict markets or averages per
se. Rather, it's more along the lines of 'things economic'
and as such, the model seems to be saying "Holidays will be a
real bummer" this year, although in much more
Say - should mention that the 'rotten eggs' meme has been
hanging around HPH modelspace for what, a year or so?
Hence, with the report that "China
official says tainted eggs 'isolated' case, I tend not to
believe it and that the eggs aspect of the melamine problem
seems likely to go extra large or maybe jumbo in public
Getting back to the markets, the more or less constant stream of
'bottom-pickers' on the Cyclops in the living room has done its
job: The market bounced last week. Likely we'll see
the market react to tomorrow's election outcome and
whole passel of economic numbers, starting with construction
spending today, factory orders and auto sales tomorrow.
But the BIG day for the market (other than Wednesday reaction to
the election outcome) will be Friday when the unemployment,
hourly earnings, and consumer debt are all tabled for your
number crunching/dining pleasure.
The real stories - the really BIG ones that do make a difference
in people's lives - generally move slowly and are macro-trends.
An Indy Star blog offers that "Without
trade, future would look bleaker", but it doesn't get into
the guts of what shapes up as the end of global capitalism over
the next couple of years and the result of that sea-state change
on the world.
Over the next couple of weeks, we'll be watching again for the
Port reports off the US west coast, but already if you know
where to look, you can see the slide accelerating downward.
Miami's Latin Business Chronicle, for example notices that "Latin
Trade Slows Down."
The BIG story - somewhat underplayed because it is moving
'slowly' and that masks visibility - is that the problems in the
banking industry have - and continue to - slip over into the
Trade arena where the specific mechanism is
of credit which are becoming harder and harder to get.
In the Middle East, where much of the current 'boom times' are
being financed with paper debt, the "Credit
crisis tsunami' threatens world trade" is being taken as
seriously as a heart attack. Same in the UK where the
Times Online notices that
"Commerce becalmed over letters of credit."
I don't know about you, but I'd sure feel a lot better about the
taxpayer bailout of the banksters if someone could just put up
the flow chart so we could follow along as the crisis develops.
"If rates go up here, lending falls apart there, which ripples
into this sector over here..." That kind of thing.
I suspect that the reason we haven't seen the logical
flow-mapping (in strategic planning terms, it would be more of a
decision matrix) is that one doesn't exist. In
other words, I'd bet a nickel or two that all this $1.x to
$2.x trillion dollars of giveaways has been based on nothing
more than a gut-check by people in control of the public's
By the way, if I count right, the first page of the WashPost
story uses the term bailout once in the second paragraph,
and then three times on the second page of the story. The
word rescue is used (including the headline) four times
on the first page of the story and only once on the second page
- that was in the headline which was repeated. I just find
that kind of...ummm...interesting.
Especially in light of what I suspect is 'inside the beltway
spin' to use the term 'rescue' over 'bailout' or 'giveaway.'
The point of the W-Post story is pretty clear:
(bend over, here it comes again)
With10-days till the next seatbelt sign going on, guess what
Robin Landry sees?
With his kind permission, here's Robin Landry's latest note to
his managed account clients...
"I have been going over the
charts this weekend and little has changed as far as the
larger trend. It still remains down in my opinion. The
rallies that have taken place since the low on Oct 10th are
making a 4th wave, which is necessary to correct the
oversold condition that occurs when a 3rd wave momentum low
Then a fifth wave takes the
market to a lower low on less momentum and the conditions
for a more sustainable rally occur. I have yet to see the
conditions that satisfy a viable bottom which will allow for
a multi month rally. I am often asked if I could be wrong
and the answer is always, Of Course, no one is right all the
time. I do have a saying that I repeat often. When I'm
wrong, I'm not wrong very long, because I will change my
position when the data dictates it, but not before.
So far the indicators, that I
use to eliminate as much of the subjectivity as possible,
tell me the low on Oct. 10th is not the final low before a
larger rally can occur. Since corrective waves can take a
number of patterns, it takes time to eliminate many of them
and thus narrow it down to the most likely.
I still favor the triangle, but
the possibility of a failed 5th wave cannot be ruled out. My
indicators however point to this 4th wave continuing until
the downside momentum is worked off, then look out below.
The bottom still looks to be at
least the 7400 area, with a momentum low to the 5800 area a
A rally past the intraday high
on 10/14/08 of 9794.37 would cause me to consider alternate
counts. If this happens, I will update these comments with
the next most likely count taking place.
The most important thing to
remember, as I keep repeating, is this is a vicious bear
market that will last for several years and any rallies are
to be used as opportunities to raise cash and prepare for
the next decline which will make the market decline we have
seen, so far, seem like a walk in the park. As always,
questions and comments are welcome.
PS: Be sure to vote on Tuesday.
Let your voice be heard.
As I've said in the past, when the
predictive linguistics line up with Robin's very reliable
proprietary stew of technicals, I just look at my TreasuryDirect
account and my continued holdings in the metals. And on
metals, the new high for gold should come when we finally get to
the bottom of the fifth and start a new move higher, but
personally, I don't expect that for quite some time yet...
This may sound absurd, but I've started weighing myself before
the daily shower, and then weighing myself a second time, right
after I towel off.
"Have you flipped out, George?"
Nope. Personal science project. I am trying to
figure out how much water my skin absorbs in a shower.
Close as I can tell, it's somewhere between a half and full
pound of water, so I will make observations over the next year
or so and average then out to overcome the digital scale's half
Come on, I can't be the only one to ever try to nail this down.
Isn't there something in a dermatology textbook about skin
moisture levels before and after bathing?
Up with Vacuum Tubes
As long as I'm laying out the odd thoughts of Monday, here's
another one which folks don't generally think about. When
transistor radios were brand new technology in the 1950's,
people would marvel at their 'instant on' feature.
"Yessir," went the sales pitch, "No more waiting for those old
tubes to warm up..."
If you don't happen to be a ham radio operator, you might not
know that the warm-up time for vacuum tubes used in television
receivers is generally on the order of 11-seconds.
As I flipped on the television this morning, I couldn't help but
notice that the onboard computer system takes a full 8-seconds
Here's my point: The time from turning on a television set
to actually seeing a picture on it has improved what, three
whole seconds since 1955!
I've give you credit for the diagonal size of the picture
doubling and better sound, but a three-second gain, well....just
strikes me as funny.
the Cloud Department
Microsoft is getting refocused on cloud computing with
Windows Azure and Office Web. This, no doubt due in
part to the success of Google Docs. If you have high
enough web reliability, I guess it makes some sense, but not for
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for
'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on
the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in
the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept
several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet
Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely,
it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers
and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as
you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
But, the truth
of the matter is that this chart shows what your account would look
like if you have taken a few thousand dollars and invested equal
amounts in the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite in the
waning days of 1999. It's not a very pretty picture, and it
sort of gives away the other side of the story. You know, the
one that no one has an interest in telling, because it's a truth
which shows the amazing coincidence of the timing of 9/11, the
disappearance of naked shorting evidence and all, along with the
impact of The Wars which have managed to keep the economy out of an
earlier depression than the one expected by me by late 2008.
No, it's not a
perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly,
it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes
·Bulletins are posted as our work schedule permits and
as events warrant.
·I try to publish Monday-Saturday by 8 AM Central
Time/ 9 AM Eastern with 7:55 Central pretty normal. If you're easily
offended by the occasional typo, then check about 8:15 Central we usually
proofread and spell check after the first post. We've had some amusing
typos in the past... Sometimes a Saturday issue will be dropped due to
projects & chores on our ranch.
·Financial and news judgments of the publisher are not
to be considered "advice"
·Please read and understand our disclaimer
·All original content (C) 2008 by George A. Ure
except sources as linked. Very short extracts are occasionally
used under 'fair use' but never entire articles without permission. That
would be beyond 'fair use'.
·Copyright of all linked articles is cited under fair
use as this is a topic specific site (long wave economics and humanistic
economics, which we call "Peoplenomics"
The "web bot
project" indicates a reference to the time predictive technology embodied in the
"Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis Intelligence Reports"
technology pioneered and
operated by Tenax Software Engineering for
intro to the
technology is here. Extracts,
when used, are with exclusive permission and any references on other web
sites must contain a link to both this site and HalfPastHuman's main page: