---

Published Monday through Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays

 

This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics.  For additional content, please subscribe.

 

Which Economy Gets Saved?

Although I keep threatening to just not do Saturday reports so I can get things done around the ranch -- a trip to the lumber store for some cabinet-making plywood and hardwood top feed into the wood shaper is on the list this morning  and welding up the array holder for the solar panels comes up this afternoon -- these are serious times and because I'm pondering whether to enter an options trade next week, I've been especially restless of late.

 

The report that two more banks went belly up this week: Franklin Bank of Houston, Texas, and Security Pacific Bank of California, with combined assets of almost $6-billion, is a pretty stark reminder that the economy is barely hanging onto life.  It's got a pulse, but it's barely fogging the mirror.

 

Part of the market rally came on the heals of Barack Obama's hints that he's in favor of more stimulus and aid to the auto industries didn't hurt.  As the Dow soared Friday almost 250 points by the close, despite the report that 10-million Americans are unemployed, the report that GM was running out of cash was moderated by the prospect of 'help from Uncle."  GM was down less than half a point, although at its recently depressed prices that's a decline of more than 9%, but Ford managed to hang on to the small gain.  The overseas autos did OK, too:  Honda was up and so was Toyota, perhaps on speculation that Detroit would relinquish even more market share.

 

I'll get into this a bit more for subscribers this weekend, but since the 1950's, it seems to me that we have seen the emergence of three different economies within the US.  The original was the bricks and mortar/industrial economy - the one that made cars, airplanes, televisions, and so on.  Then we saw the evolution of the financial services industry - a mother giant of late with more notional value than the entire world's gross product.  And not to be overlooked - because it serves both, is the services economy.

 

It's a kind of three-legged milk stool.  Supposedly.

 

Unfortunately, now that tables have turned on  the financial services leg, it will 'take down' a big chunk of the services sector as well.  And, since we have irresponsibly allowed American corporations to outsource most of our former industrial economy to China and India, the industrial leg of that milk stool has also been hacked.

 

What stands as a challenge for the Obamanation is how to repair the foreshortened milk stool.  I think you know the answer...it's obvious to me:  Rebuild infrastructure and on-shore industry. 

 

Imposing tariffs, as was done in the last depression under the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act will likely not be played this time around, although I'd argue that bad Fed policy in the last depression had more negative influence than did Smoot-Hawley, but the capitalists have managed to effectively rewrite history and give a thorough black-eye to tariffs.  Big money to be made playing them wage-rate differentials when sales flatten out.

 

The reality the fat-cats won't cop to is that making goods overseas - and I don't care whether it's the apple from another continent, or a refrigerator in an Asian country - happened because the wage-rate differential between a higher standard of living economy and a lesser one fell to the bottom lines - and that's bonus time.  Not to say that's bad - hell, it's the same strategic decision I'd make, too, if my bread were buttered only on the one side.. 

 

The problem at a national policy level is whether the export of jobs has gone so far as to now be unrecoverable with something simple - like tariffs or a stimulus - or whether the rest of the world will just start backing away from US dollars.  I guess we'll find that out over the coming few weeks with the G-20 meetings next weekend.

---

My friend The Bond Dude made a very interesting observation to the effect that he thinks China will keep playing the dollar game only so long as it helps China build a strong middle class.  The way he's got it penciled, once the Chinese have a strong enough middle class (e.g. enough consumers - perhaps 300-million or so...) then the Chinese can let their currency appreciate extensively relative to ours and assume Masters of the Universe global power.

 

They could then phase their industrial output into domestic consumption - and paradoxically, the recent earthquake in China has set off a massive rebuilding effort - and that does what?  Increases the growth rate for China's middle class.

 

You have noticed, I hope, that China's premier Wen Jiabao says "Industrialized nations should ditch unsustainable lifestyles"?  Wonder if he's been lurking around here...a rational person looking at global numbers of humans and how much resource is left would likely come to no other conclusion. 

---

Some indications are that the Obamanation may be a lot more 'talk' than 'action' when it comes down to tangible change.   Headlines like "Obama's change leaves by the back door" are cropping up in reaction to the disappointing appointments of old-guard paradigm defenders and ex-Clintonistas in the early days of the next administration.  Have we been snookered by the PTB?  I wouldn't bet against that...

 

Ultimately, I expect the reason the market climbed last week was that the Obamanation showed its true stripes:  It's going to be a refried Clinton era with, oh sure,  a few new faces who will likely talk more about change that get down to the business of infrastructure rebuilding, going green, and articulating a believable, achievable new kind of American Dream.

 

If the Obamanation doesn't identify and strong act on the fundamental causes of disappearing jobs, salutatory initial moves like extending unemployment benefits are going to turn out 'nice but no cigar.'

 

Till these guys articulate a plan to rebuild the milk stool, onshore jobs, and reel in the banksters, it's the same train wreck all over again - just with a different engineer.

 

Rehashing Iran

Certain lobbies in Washington seem committed to whipping Iran phonic behavior - and with enough old-guard/paradigm defenders, I notice that headlines like "Obama: Iran must be kept from developing nukes" are predictably popping up.

 

Sure, Iran could someday develop nukes.  So could Denmark. But if you take a thoughtful read through the National Intelligence Estimate:  Iran: Nuclear intentions and capabilities report from 2007, the hype seems just a little, well, overworked. 

 

Nevertheless, the alarmist lobbies point at every earthquake in Iran as really being an 'underground nuke test'.  They don't want you to notice the scientific data such as the depth of 29 kilometers....LOL.    Is the word gullible in the dictionary?

---

But, speaking of quakes, you are keeping your eye on what's going on north of Puerto Rico?  Swarming all over the place down there...

 

Where's the US?

Horrible war is raging in the Congo and this weekend, the UN is holding meetings to talk about it.  Notice anything?  How about: the US not throwing in a big military commitment?  The pattern to notice - and I'm not being overly critical here, is that Congo don't have pipeline routes or oil resource to offer in sufficiency to garner the huge kind of outlays that go into the Middle East wars... Longer term, this is why China wins Africa.

 

Them Winds Are Back

The Cayman Islands are under a hurricane watch for Hurricane Paloma which has popped up to Cat-3 strength overnight.  Although not headed for the US, it sure sees likely to whack Cayman Brac but good as it heads off to the northeast over eastern Cuba and up toward the southern Bahamas, or maybe the northern Turks group.

---

Know this, if you live or have plans to go visiting, early this week would be great because often after big storm action like this, bits of treasure wash up on the beaches in the area - man y a ship went down in historical times in that neighborhood..  I know people's who've come up with some dandy doubloons from after-storm beach combing...

---

Speaking of which, the economic fallout of the recession is hitting the Caribbean - hotel bookings are falling noticeably.  30-50% declines are reported.  Should be some real deals there this winter.

 

Something Fishy

A request for an "International declaration against unsustainable salmon farming sent to United Nations" caught my eye.  I guess it's because I'm thinking our kids will be alive when the very last - ever - order of fish and chips is sold..

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping:  Backing Up Your Bank

Ah...once again, a reader report underscores my contention that you should back up all of your critical financial records on your own media.  Here's why...

"Hi George,

A friend who had about $250K in IndyMac with a joint account lost "about $40K" when it failed some time ago. He writes that contrary to federal law, the Feds have not liquidated the bank, and are continuing to operate it on a day to day basis. And also that his $250K "cannot be found on the books" any longer.

Just thought you'd like to know.

Do your own offsite backups of your account stats. Most institutions provide downloads in various formats like QuickBooks or Microsoft Money. I don't know how valuable it would be in a "he said, she said" situation, but it's better than nothing, and cheaper than a forensic accountant. Do it now. "

Well, I think your friend is wrong - IndyMac is operating as a federal bridge bank and if you read, they may be operated for up to three years.  On the other hand, can't find $250K?  Ouch!!!

 

Yeah, I have automatic backups going off here almost all the time - having experienced some vicious attacks via the net, I don't trust anyone with data - so we use rotating hard drives (drive #1, Drive#2, etc, not rotating at 7,200 rpm you dunce...) and with the price of 1.5 terabyte drives down under $150, there's really no excuse.

 

Bankers and Lamp Posts Department

I assume you are aware of www.endthebailouts.com?  "86% of Bailout Money Used for Executive Bonuses"

 

 I get emails like this one all the time:

"I think it's time to put an end to this. We had a Tea Party over taxation without representation. Are we a nation of complete cowards and pansies now? If we don't take control now, then when?

How p*ssed off do you have to be to act upon this? When your kids don't eat? When your dog is eaten by the neighbors?

You pay taxes? I sure the hell do. Don't forget. Our new future leader approved the bailout too, so don't tell me things are going to change. They won't, at least not for the better. Not from him.

We sold ourselves somewhere down the line. I don't know when it happened, but it happened. Now, We The People are waiting for government to make things better, and they just screwed us for CEO bailouts. Go back to sleep if you want. This cannot happen without ramifications from the leaders of this country, which happens to be the citizens of the United States of America.

I will probably end up in Guantanamo for this, and I don't give a flying f*ck. It's time We The People took a real hard look at what our government is doing, and hold them f*cking accountable. My name is (withheld - G) , and I approve this message. Peace.

I figurer the new guy deserves a chance.  But change?  About the only change I see so far is in my pocket.

 

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Help Us Grow...

If you enjoy the content here on UrbanSurvival (or from the mirror site www.independencejournal.com)  please bookmark it for yourself and share it with others by clicking below:

 

Peoplenomics.com 

Not a Subscriber yet?  It's just $40/Year:  (Allow 48-hours for processing)

 

Review of this week's report:

"Dear George, Inspired by today's bulletin, I looked at the business section of the NY Times, and read on page 6 Why the Bear Is Alive and Well. The writer, Paul J. Lim, talked about P/E ratios, and I felt very smug, having been made hip to them by your writing. The reporter seems to confirm what you've been saying, which shouldn't come in as a surprise. It's just interesting to see something about what I just read from you."

     (Other Payment. Options)

"Live on $10,000" Updated

What?  You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"?  Suit yourself.  We're all going to live it shortly, anyway.  I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped.  But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com.  Yep - still possible.  I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them.  The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings...  Click here for the page with more details on it.

----

Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

 

---

Friday November 7, 2008

Dow 4,000 by Christmas?

I don't mean to start Friday off on a negative note, but whenever I see things beginning to 'line up' in 5the headlines, the chatter in the emails, plus what's coming in the predictive linguistics from HalfPastHuman, I start to become very uneasy and conservative in all investment decisions.  Particularly if these things all come together on a day when I have been gaming out my next foray into the commodities market with my broker JB.

 

I've been doing a fair bit of chart work over the past couple of days trying to find the ideal entry point to go long on some things that could do very well, even if the U.S. as rumors flying around the 'net have it, the U.S. is forced to devalue its currency by some amount in either mid/late December, or sometime early in the new year.  The reasons would be obvious: We've been living a high and grand lifestyle at the expense of the rest of the planet - we print up paper, and they give us the goods.  At some point, as monetary karma seems about to teach, those kinds of excesses and abuses can come back to haunt. 

 

But let's not go there - or even into this morning's employment report - just yet.  Instead, let me give you the overview of how things are 'coming together.' in most uncomfortable way:

 

#1:

The market action last week and into early this week was highly suspect as the rally seemed to me to have the 'flavor' of one of those pre-holiday rallies that can be found often around major national holidays like Memorial Day, the Fourth of July, and so on.  It also on the charts looked like  it was over & done with on Wednesday and the market dropped about 900-points in  two days since.  Although the futures were pointing higher early today, that was in anticipation of the employment numbers, which we'll get to in a minute.  Keep your slippers on.

 

A quick call to Robin Landry confirmed what I was worried about:  There are two counts, one of which would take us down to 5,800 and another that could take out 4,000 on the Dow by Christmas that have his attention:

"Landry: If this is the fifth wave down, then we should go down at a minimum to the intraday lows of the other day. And I think that was on 10/10 – and that would mean about 7,882. That’s the minimum, but more likely would be a quick drop to 5,800 if this is the fifth to complete the first down.

My concern here is that the best count using my indicators suggests that this fifth wave down we’re in now is only completing the third wave down. With another fourth wave rally, up to about this same area (8,500-9,000 - GU) then another decline, to even lower levels than lower than the 5,800.

That count would put us at around 4,000 Dow level.

The bullish options – very short term – is that we are still in this wave 4 and today’s (Thursday's - G)  decline is wave B with a rally for wave E in the next day or so.

Then the fifth wave decline starts   (*I noted that the futures were rallying in advance of the unemployment numbers - so this might fit - G)

The most interesting question is whether this fourth wave is the fourth of the third wave and the fifth wave down will follow, or if this is of a larger degree. We do not know that yet…and anyone who makes big bets in here that a long term bottom is in is either much smarter than me, or has a direct pipeline to the Man Upstairs, because I see no confirming technical evidence yet that would indicate the first decline is over or even close to coming to an end.

This is the one time, I would sure like to be wrong because I don’t like what I’m seeing.

George:  And that's the building possibility of the Dow 4,000 by Christmas count?

Landry: Yes, Exactly.

This by itself doesn't lead me to believe yet - nor does it lead Robin, to say with any certainty that Dow 4.000 by Christmas is 'baked-in' yet, but it sure put my commodity call option ideas to rest pretty quick, although because, like my friend the Mogambo Guru, I keep thinking about more gold and taking delivery of a mini contract is possible, although a bit rich for my tastes. 

 

#2

The second thing that got me to pondering the Dow becoming a lump of coal in the Christmas stocking this year was an email from a long time reader/correspondent who has been kind enough to send me items of interest for more than a decade.  He's one of those really smart guys who used to follow the University of Colorado Longwaves Econ postings back when it was still around, so anyone who's got a 12-year attention span on economics may be assumed to be no fool:

"George,

It looks like the crash is on.

I have had calls from a couple of people today who follow astro cycles and apparently the full moon on Nov 13th has some VERY NASTY astro configurations. Its also a “supermoon” which is on a new or full moon which occurs when the Moon is 90% or greater of its closest approach to Earth.

The 2 super moons coming up are November 13th and December 12th, and its my understanding (working with a limited knowledge base) that the extreme gravitational forces can cause all kinds of reactions, including earthquakes.

I know you have the 13th/14th as being really bad days, potentially, but wanted to mention this.

I also have a confidential internal technical analysis report from one of Wall Streets biggest. Believe me, I am NOT supposed to have this and it must be treated confidentially, but they say SPX 660 and there is an outside chance of 307. They are mostly using EW and Fibonacci relationships to come up with their targets.

Remember my letter which you published said 372-374.

Actually, I was trying to forget that, normally being an optimistic kinda guy.  Still, if we were to get a 'one last pop of a rally - maybe based on some democorp chatter about saving Detroit and passing out free stimulus money, some cheap, currently way out of the money put options on an SPX down around 550 in January might be cheaper than a trip to the gambling boats over in Bossier City, Louisiana.

 

Bossier City gambling, near as I figure exist for only two reasons: Apparently some Texans don't have eTrade and AmeriTrade accounts, and secondly because some  Texan's wives don't seem to enjoy sitting around watching quotes on multiple monitors as much as they enjoy champagne, dinner and a show.  Go figure.

 

#3

Although we're in a bit of a hiatus in the wake of the elections, the predictive linguistics in the last series from www.halfpasthuman.com has another emotional 'release' period occur5ing from November 14th - ish to mid December, which is when the twin quakes are coming in modelspace.  One of the quakes seems to be South American in flavor while the second/twin seems to be North American.  But the point is that in their work, 'markets' just suck and the concept of a 'lockdown' of markets is in their work.  But which exchange?  Who knows.

 

However, if you read around the net, various economic and precious metals forums are speculating what would happen if suddenly a large number of investors wanted to take physical delivery of metals...that might make things interesting.

 

And it's not like the speculation is without basis:  If you look at some of the long-established gold sellers, you'll find that Kitco, just to use an example, has only 1,000 ounce bars of liver and 400-ounce gold bars listed on their "complete" bullion products page, if you're talking physical deliverables only, and a long disclaimer about supplies.

 

I may not be a number-slinging genius when it comes to quantative analysis, but I've come to the conclusion that if you know more than 4-5 formulas, you're functionally useless as an economist; formulas tend to blind people to common sense.  In this case, the common sense says "Why should there be a shortage of gold and silver coins at retail while the price is going down?  That's an impossibility in a so-called 'free' market, right?

 

Common sense is screaming at me "Either the market isn't free or Kitco's pulling our leg."  And I don't think Kitco's kidding...

 

At some point, between now and the inauguration of the Obamanation I expect gold and silver to resume their climb.  What could cause that?

 

Aha! We are only a week from the start of the G-20 finance meetings in Washington.  And, already,  the maneuvering to slap back the U.S. without imploding the whole world's economy is getting underway.  The headline flow here is almost like watching the M&A deal flow on the Street.  Check these out:

• G20 risk overreacting to banking crisis: Canada's PM

• China pledges constructive stand at G20 in Washington.

• US to urge G20 not to use crisis to thwart trade.

• Russia's President "Medvedev-Obama meeting may take place during G20 summit-Kremlin"

• "IMF says to push G20 for quick fiscal expansion"

 

So we'll watch the footwork closely as the lead-in to next weekend's G20.  And, remember the predictive linguistics November 14th date is an approximation.  Plus or minus several days.  So, if we get a market collapse come the middle of next week before the G20 or if it comes the Monday following which would be the 17th, don't gripe. The time machine's a bit rickety, which is fine because if it weren't, it'd probably be made illegal, just like shooting a sasquatch is.

 

#4

This last - the bit about the bankster's International Monetary Fund" is the one that I am particularly keen on.  While my friend Jas Jain has been impeccably right so far on Treasuries being the place to be for the past year or so, my trust personal attorney/consigliore tells me that his work on how the global economy all 'ends badly'

 

His work, which he compiled back in the 1976-1979 period, suggested that this time around, the Great Depression would begin with a major round of deflation but would spin around as money was printed up globally and would end in a round of serious-to-hyper inflation. 

 

He also made another pretty good observation:  The collapse points tended to happen on a 39-calendar day, or 55-calendar day basis from significant inflation points.

 

What has his attention now is this: There are plenty of reports floating about the net on how another hue pile of money is due to come out of hedge funds starting around December 31st.  And this means what?  That the hedge funds will have to unload enough assets in order to pony up the dough their stakeholders are trying to get out at year end.

 

Oh - being an attorney and CPA he also says be aware that we could normally expect that there'd be some tax selling around mid-November  (who me in past years?  Gosh, who would have thought?) in order to avoid the 30-days wash sale rule.  I don't play that game lately, but it used to be that if you had a stock that was a particular turkey you would sell it before Thanksgiving so you could book the loss on it for the current tax year, and then buy it back in the new year if you still liked it - claiming a loss for IRS purposes. 

 

In the really ancient times, people would sell in the last few days of the year, book the loss and buy the stock right back - which caused a bit of volatility, but more importantly to Uncle, screwed him  out of potential income tax revenue (short term gains being taxed at a higher rate) so the term 'tax wash sale" came to be.

 

Sooo...what does this mean in practical terms? 

 

Let's see here:  We've got some normal seasonal pressure down on the market to book losses - and plenty of them to book this year, notes my consigliore.

 

Then, you've got a normal low that comes (if you stare at enough data, as he has) around the Winter Solstice, December 21st is a Sunday this year, so  either Friday the 19th or Monday December 22nd would be likely lows...

 

And says my consigliore, back up 39 calendar days from there, and you should have the start of the major trend to get to the cyclical low.

 

Oops: November 13th - close enough to what the bots have been pointing toward.

 

Now, all we need to get there would be a nice rally between now and early next week to set up "The Perfect Score" for The People's Economist to make a little money. 

 

Gee, do you think my crazy vision of loading up on S&P put options around November 12th/13th, selling them at the December low, and then rolling into commodity long positions about the winter solstice will work? 

 

Tell you what:  I'll put a couple of large on it and report the results to Peoplenomics.com subscribers.  With any luck, I'll run $2-grand into enough to buy a nice used air-cooled Carrera for my birthday in late February, LOL.

 

Like I tell people at the local dispensary:  Is this a great world or what?  Who would have thought we'd live in a world where we'd be able to trade next-to-worthless paper for perfectly good rum - or maybe Porsches?  Let the rally begin!  Then 4,000 on the Dow by Christmas and the roll-out of a new global economic order, run by banksters behind the scenes!  I get it!

 

Disclaimer: Don't try this in your personal account.  You're likely to lose your butt.  Buy something useful instead.  Hiking boots, food, seeds, a mortgage payment...something useful.  Latte for the boss so you can keep your job...that kinda thing... Read our disclaimer!

 

About Those Unemployment Numbers...

OK, here you go:

"Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.1 to 6.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. October's drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, as revised. Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008; over half of the decrease has occurred in the past 3 months. In October, job losses continued in manufacturing, construc- tion, and several service-providing industries. Health care and mining continued to add jobs.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 6.5 percent in October, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 603,000 to 10.1 million. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 2.8 mil- lion, and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.7 percentage points. (See table A-1.)

The unemployment rates for adult men (6.3 percent), adult women (5.3 percent), whites (5.9 percent), and Hispanics (8.8 percent) rose in October. The jobless rates for teenagers (20.6 percent) and blacks (11.1 percent) were little changed. The unemployment rate for Asians in October was 3.8 percent, not seasonally ad- justed. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of persons who lost their job and did not ex- pect to be recalled to work rose by 615,000 to 4.4 million in October. Over the past 12 months, the size of this group has increased by 1.7 million. "

Worse: Table A-12, alternative measures of labor underutilization, shows total unemployed, plus others jumped from 10.6 to 11.1% of the workforce.

 

Looking at the CES Birth/.Death Model - which is where the statisticians try to guesstimate where jobs were created or lost showed a gain of 23-thousand in trade, transportation, and utilities which flies in the face of a Boeing Strike and layoffs in the automakers, but who am I to question such genius?

---

Despite the headlines that the "Jobless rate bolts to 14-year high of 6.5 percent" the futures on the financial channels still point to a higher open...so all green on my rally till next Wednesday idea...which will give me time to wire some money into a trading account...yee haw!

---

Elaine and I keep watching our FUR - family unemployment rate.  It's running 25% presently.

 

here's how to calculate your own FUR:  Take the number of kids you have who should be in the workforce.  Between Elaine and I that's 8.  Now divide that into the number who are unemployed: in our case, that's 2.  2 divided by 8 is .25 - or 25% unemployment. 

 

Send in your personal FUR's and we'll see if they are anything lie the government's report....

 

Hide the Sausage

The Global Research article "The Economy Collapses: Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) Obfuscates Seriousness of Crisis." 

---

You know you're a 'winner' in the crisis if you get your whole household through the crisis with no house or job loss.

 

401(k) Confiscation?

I told friends years ago that I wasn't going to do a 401(k) program because I didn't think government could be trusted to a) keep their hands off them and b) not tax them as promised.  Simple put: It's enough of a pile of money that the taxocrats of both 'nominal'  parties are eyeing the dough as a boon  to the Social(ist) Security Administration.

 

With that as background, go read the whole article in the Carolina Journal Online about how "Dems Target Private Retirement Accounts".    Now remember the old saying: "A man's home and property are not safe when a legislature is in session." 

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping: Stressful Change States

Here's an email from a reader that has a great lesson in it:

"Dear Mr.Ure, We (as a company) fired 10 people today The cuts were top to bottom. “bail out” is a short term fix. Heads down management is in full blown implement. Flailing windmill set mark, and go……………………. I'm moving to a different office tomorrow. My new gentlemen farmer image bonds me to my wife and allows me to Bid on some 10 acres on a property tax sale that went bad……"

And the lesson is what?

 

Even though we may not like the potential future coming at us, a strong bond with another human - and in a larger sense the power of the family which is a who 'master-mind group' of its own, can get you through darned near anything.  United we stand...

 

Yo Ho Ho and a Bottle of Scotch?

Hmmm... a Scotch cruise has made it into Forbes as a travel option....sailing and Scotch?  You can get pretty much he same effect by boating in the San Juan Islands of Washington State and into Canada in the fall or very early spring - cold as heck.  Maybe in the summer, the coast of Scotland would be hospitable...which explains the timing?  Gets me to thinking about hot buttered Scotch as a weekend science project, though...

 

Lingering Smell...

UrbanDictionary's word of the day:  PEWS - post-election withdrawal syndrome.

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---

 

---

Thursday November 6, 2008

Speeding Up???

Sometimes when I come into the office, the first headline I see sets the mood for the day.  Today, it was humorous...to the point of laughter.  The headline is "Administration speeding up on economic problems" and I guessed it could be taken one of two ways: The wry way or the wrong way.

 

Faced with a headline like, what was so laughable was that the action was a speeding up of the money giveaway - that gunpoint generosity being forced on banks, many of whom are specifically not interested but are taking the dough for fear of getting some kind of a 'stigma' if they don't.  Yup - responsible fiscal management is sure being 'stigmatized,' alright...

 

So, no, not to worry, the administration is not speeding up the push for foreclosure moratoriums - they're just speeding up the bond sales and funds of the $700 (but really $850) billion of bailout (and pork) which was rammed through CONgress, and which I credit in no small measure with defeating the McPailin ticket.

---

The stock market's drop of nearly 500-points on Wednesday in the wake of the election is being - predictably - laid at the election outcome.   But, no, it's just that the wave four rally is over and now we go into the wave 5 test and perhaps a crash once we test the old/recent lows.  World markets are tumbling, too.   Surprise!  The problems haven't disappeared.

 

Not to you worry too much, but how would you like this for a scenario:  Market drifts down and then on November 13/14 or Monday the 17th, the market crashes through the old/recent lows and drops to 7,200 or 5,800 on the Dow?  Yuk.  Possible, but yuk...

---

A friend, who is the manager of a small national bank told me in an email this week that the federal bank examiners showed up this week and the head of the audit team tried the old light-hearted humor approach: "We're from the government and we're here to help..."  Seems no one cracked a smile because the bank examiners are notorious nitpickers at the operating level.  Upstairs?  That's where the Greenspans and Bernankes and Paulsons of the world were not being as scrupulous.  But no news there.

 

However, what may come as news is that "Taxpayers may pay legal bills for mortgage execs."  yeah, wouldn't you know? 

 

This is one of those items where if George were running the world  (I mean this one, not the other one), the only lawyer bills which would be reimbursed would be for those found innocent. Again, reason enough to bar me from holding office.  Just too damn simple and common-sensical.

---

This weekend in our subscribers-only Peoplenomics report, we go on a quest for a new economic system - not sure what it will be yet, but the problem is to evolve from the current one to something that is not as subject to the concentration of powers and wealth that have spawned the massive abuses.

 

I expect we'll bounce around the Economic Triangle formed by Adam Smith, Karl Marx, and the Society for Creative Anachronism.  This last is a reference to those people who keep alive many of the medieval arts (blacksmithing, weaving, open fire cooking and a lower tech lifestyle.  Dressed up in restored and newly made armor, the words of Leslie Fish's song "Serious Steel" brings up visions of "rattling, clanking down the road, the War is going home..."

 

A case could well be made that in order to be best prepared for what lies ahead, lessons from the past should be remembered.  As the cong continues in one part: "The very  next town, that we came to, they had no fuel at all.  The garage man said he could change our cars to run on alcohol. But 5,000 cars would take as long as to grow a crop of grain.  So we made a deal and moved on out in a horse-drawn wagon train..."

 

Whether the 'summer of hell 2009' gets so extreme that wearing of armor makes sense should be revealed over the next year.  I'd be the first to admit that a complete breakdown of the financial system would be a horrific event.  When you think about it, everything comes to a screeching halt. Firemen, policemen, the Port Office, airlines, farmers...who works for free?  And if money suddenly and precipitously loses value, what have you got?  I mean besides 300-million very angry and well-armed people on your hands?

 

I suppose that's the kind of thing whispered in back rooms to scare lawmakers into their recent decisions to bailout bankers; "Do this thing for us.." in almost Mafioso tones, "...or we'll trash your world."   Although I'm not so sure that hasn't already started anyway.

 

Is it possible that a new President could inaugurate fundamental and meaningful change within the existing power structure?   Many conspiracy theorists point to President Kennedy's signing of Executive Order 1110 in June of 1963 - which would have put the federal government directly into the money business in competition with the Fed - as evidence that messing with the elite carries a high price tag.

 

Would it be asking too much for have 100% transparency on the seriousness of our condition as a country - which is another way of saying lately, our national economic condition?  Admit that it's built on debt, some of which is false and has to be cleaned out like bad tooth decay?  This money giveaway stuff is like putting a filling in without doing the drilling out of the bad, seems to me.

---

Back to where I was going: The point of of the Peoplenomics piece is that the major economic benefit of machines continues to accrue almost solely to the ownership class.  Not to the humans who are replaced by machines.

 

I mean think about this: If we could build machines that did everything for us - drove car, flew airplanes (I mean beyond Cat-3 IFR, right), grew and distributed all goods...such that there were no jobs left, who would have money?  I mean all  the money.  You got it: whoever owns the automated systems.  You could have 100% unemployment and zero purchasing power. 

 

Why do I bring this up now?  Oh!  This morning's big economic number is the Labor Department's Productivity report.  Read on...

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today reported preliminary productivity data--as measured by output per hour of all persons--for the third quarter of 2008. The preliminary seasonally-adjusted annual rates of productivity growth in the third quarter were:

1.3 percent in the business sector and 1.1 percent in the nonfarm business sector.

In both sectors, productivity gains were smaller than in the first two quarters of 2008, and were the result of hours at work falling faster than output. (See table A) . In manufacturing, productivity changes in the third quarter were:

-1.0 percent in manufacturing, 3.3 percent in durable goods manufacturing, and -7.3 percent in nondurable goods manufacturing.

Manufacturing productivity fell for the second consecutive quarter; the third-quarter decline was concentrated in the nondurable goods sector, whereas the second-quarter decrease was due to a drop in durable goods productivity. Output and hours in manufacturing, which includes about 12 percent of U.S. business sector employment, tend to vary more from quarter to quarter than data for the aggregate business and nonfarm business sectors."

---

"Business sector output per hour grew 1.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008 as output decreased 1.5 percent and hours worked by all persons--employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers--fell 2.8 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rates). The decline in output was the largest since the third quarter of 2001, when output fell 3.1 percent. Hours had not dropped as much in one quarter since the first quarter of 2002, (-3.1 percent). From the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008, productivity increased 1.8 percent; output edged up 0.3 percent and hours decreased 1.5 percent in the business sector.

Hourly compensation in the business sector increased at an annual rate of 4.7 percent during the third quarter of 2008. This measure includes wages and salaries, supplements, employer contributions to employee benefit plans, and taxes. Real hourly compensation, which takes into account changes in consumer prices, decreased by 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2008.

Changes in unit labor costs approximate the change in hourly compensation less the change in productivity. In the third quarter of 2008, unit labor costs rose at a 3.4 percent annual rate. The implicit price deflator for business sector output, which reflects changes in both unit labor cost and unit nonlabor payments, rose 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008."

May be a little early for the 'pikes and armor' but come to think of it, I don't recall every seeing anyone dressed up as a nobleman at the renaissance fairs I've been to... other than a few folks working knights.....(sorry, couldn't help myself).

---

John Crudele's preview of tomorrow's job report in today's NY Post starts with the headline "Today's big number: 1-million jobs lost this year..."

 

Rate Cuts

Bank of England in a 'shocker' today has cut rates 1.5% to 3%.  Swiss National Bank is targeting the 2% range.

---

All this could spur more zero percent loans from the automakers, who are on the ropes with a report that some may not survive until the next administration.  Key thing: A Chrysler failure could cause a million more jobs to be lost in a matter of months.

 

Gold Lights Up

With gold doing much better than the Dow (comparatively) over the past day or two, stories like "Mother of all short squeezes for gold?" are popping up.  Probably not without reason...since the price of right now deliverable is has been vastly different than the so-called 'spot' price.

---

Let me think:  Hmmm... if the chart at Trader Bart's site, showing that the M-3 is going up at better than 16% annualized - is anywhere near right, and the economy is essentially flat, what does that mean under monetary inflation theory?

 

And the Truth Comes Out Department

Two days after the election, Mayor Mike is telling New Yorkers that a promised property tax rebate is off the table and a 15% hike in the income tax is possible. 

 

"Four Bloomberg-backed republicans are rejected at polls" says the NT Times.  Gee, I wonder why...hmmm... 

 

Why couldn't Hizzoner have been a little more forthright before the election, huh?  Ooops.  there I go, expecting people to walk their talk....shame on me.  I'm sorry.

 

Selling Global Warming

"BBC Shunned Me for Denying Climate Change" says the Daily Express in a piece about best selling author/botanist David Bellamy.

 

Meantime, the 2008 hurricane season is the subject of some discussion.  Me?  I just keep reading about how sun spots have broad influence on earthly weather and climate.

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping: Look Out - An Outlook

Here's an email from a reader:

"Dear George,

As mentioned in my earlier correspondence, I am an avid reader of your site and have recently become a subscriber to Peoplenomics to show my appreciation for your hard work.

Frankly, I feel your dismissal of the USA electing the first African American president and expectation that we will only see more of the same, is a bit on the defeationest side. Maybe you are right and as in your example "if the car does not get you the piano will" is the way things work, but that would entirely defeat the very purpose of free will that each of us is expected to have.

I for one can tell you that there was genuine joy and celebration almost everywhere in the world, to see this bright young man elected to the most powerful post in the world and unlike most Americans who have hardly traveled outside their State and would not understand the difference between Cairo and Kandhar, this man had his primary education in a good school in Indonesia, is definitely smart and articulate.

An example was the question he posed to the new Prime Minister of Pakistan -- Why they were wasting their time on Kashmir when they has so many internal security and financial problems to solve over and above the problems on the Afghan border. I can definitely tell you this man understands what is going on in the rest of the world, unlike most of his predecessors. While no man can be responsible for others and it is not fair to put all the burden on his shoulders, I do feel even a few good men making the right choices can make all the difference...

I was aware from your site that Cliff and you attended the Coast to Cost radio show and it was only yesterday that I obtained a streaming copy of the broadcast from a site (as I live in Asia and consequently do not have direct access to C2C radio broadcast.

It was only on listening to the broadcast that the bigger picture of what you guys anticipate happening in the immediate future and going forward several years is beginning to become clear. My best guess at this point is that leaving all the financial mess and related problems aside, you guys are planning for an extinction level event taking place in the coming 3-4 years? or is it limited to the good 'ol USA / Europe / Mid-East?

If you guys are correct (and my guess is not too far off the mark), can you kindly clarify the anticipated timetable for the Costal Event you briefly mentioned on the show in reference to both of you building boats / arks? If your subscribers are to plan to survive this event, many of us will need time to build / buy suitable boats that may help us, particularly those of us that live in costal areas. From the information on webbots on the *** site, this is expected on November 14 and onwards. PLEASE CONFIRM.

Also, as mentioned at the show and on several posts, both of you expect a MILITARY type component also in the coming period. Can you narrow down the time frame, the area of conflict and if it includes the use of N w e a p o n s and/or W M D 's.

Thanks and keep up the good work."

OK,  just so we're clear on this:  I'm not a 'defeatist" because I am not out partying in the street over an Obama victory.  Far from it.  The problem is that the economy has already set up on a glide which could turn into a crash as the year goes on.  The "feel good" aspects of having someone in office who may have more street sense may be good, but if he inherits an economy that's already been flushed, I don't see the cause to party, sorry.  Just some damn hard work over the next year for the whole nation.

 

As far as the global coastal event, it could be a 'slow motion' kind of thing, but Cliff is working on his boat and I'm looking for a 23-25 foot trailerable swing keel.  This makes sense under my 'dual use'; approach to life.  If the state of Texas becomes a huge reef, I would have a way out.  And if not, I can still go sailing on the local lakes and reservoirs.  The South and Texas have many huge bodies of water and sailing is a joy on everything from a pond on up...

 

As far as extinction level events out there a ways in the data, remember that it will be late 2009 before we get to zoom in on mid 2010 with any degree of resolution, and then mid 2010 before high clarity of 2011 happens, and so on.  If the internet is still up, we can deal with those issues when we get closer.

 

In the meantime, things like Backwoods Home, Mother Earth News, the back issues of the SCA's Compleat Anachronist, and doing some gardening seems likely to have a much higher personal satisfaction payback than buying and parking permanently in front of a 65" DLP and BlueRay set up.  But it does depend on whether you're a participant or a spectator of life, I suppose... I'm striving for a semi-balanced approach.

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---

---

November 5, 2008

Changing Presidents Vs. Changing Paradigms

Now that that's over...I wasn't among those who stayed up last night to watch television and see "who won?"  Didn't need to...the arising of the Obamanation was something that has been pretty much 'in-the-bag' for the past couple of months, although I think the chief time monk at www.halfpasthuman.com  was pretty good about not saying it too publicly in advance. 

 

The 'tell' was there, however, talking to him - the reference here and there to the "Ombamanation" - and how regardless of who won, the ultimate outcome for the country wouldn't be substantially different, it seemed.  One HPH subscriber told me: "The web bot is batting 1000!!!!!  Seat belt fastened! Pies made! Revolution on!"  But we knew that...

 

And that's the problem we face in a nutshell:  Although there's apparently some latitude in how the future plays out, the ultimate vesica piscis between alternative future sets seems to mostly lead to the same kind of outcomes.  Maybe a little early here, or pushed back a bit there, but in many ways the 'moving finger writes'/Universe seems to hit what in golf would be a long ball that may take a different trajectory, sliced or hook, but still ends up on the same green.

 

Or, to put it differently, its the old problem of a man, knowing about the future and seeing his own death in an auto accident, decides on his last day to avoid anything having to do with cars, only to find that a piano is dropped on his head by careless movers while he's walking to work.  Same outcome, just a little different way of getting to his same ultimate outcome.

 

I keep scratching my head about this one - although reanalyzing that there are some future outcomes which are so evenly probable that time jacking could work; e.g. bending the future this way or that, but that comes with its own set of costs, as well.

 

So here we are on the 'day after' and we still have all of the same problems we had on Monday.  What's changed is a slightly more positive attitude about the possibility of change and with that, a little pause in the markets' decline until November 14th (plus or minus) before an expected resumption of downside action into January/March of next year, if my interpretation of the data is correct.  The time monks don't bother with market direction - since they don't play that game.  Instead, it's the emotional release they look at. 

 

Even the election is an 'emotional release' in the sense that one party is being 'released from office' while a new one in installed.  Not only did the Presidency go democorp, but the Senate picked up a few more demos as well.  Jeb Hensarling, the local congressman who I told you had  managed to stand up to the bankster bailout (in both House votes), seems to be tracking to become House Conference Chairman, since Florida representative Adam Putnam has decided to relinquish the post.

---

From a 'paradigm' perspective, really little is likely to change until we start to see how the Obamanation takes shape.  Summers and Emanuel are considered by some to be top picks for chief of staff and Treasury Secretary.  But nothing is in the bag:  A couple of New Jersey democorps are saying former Goldman exec turned governor John Corzine is being considered for Treasury Secretary.  Seems to me that here lately, the major qualification for that post has been  having a stint at Goldman Sachs on the résumé.

 

Again, not the kind of details to be concerned with today:  The presidential deal is done, and we now go through a couple of weeks of appointee-madness and pretty much the whole phonebook of DC democorps seems likely to be proposed for this position, or that.

 

Again, the presidency change seems in order, but for now, the paradigm remains mostly intact:  America is still living on the consumer-driven economy model, still consuming vastly more than our individual shares of global resources, still 'ruling the world with paper assets' and all the rest; the karmic debt continues to build.

---

Globally, the whole world seems to be bordering or falling into recession:  This morning "Fitch sees steep decline in GDP's of advanced economies" to the extent that global 'growth' may total only 1% in 2009.

 

All of which wouldn't be so bad, except that much of that growth is likely to come from improved 'business productivity.  While we await the Friday release of increased productivity figures for the US, I've noted in the past how increase productivity usually comes with a decline in the number of people working.  That's the topic this week for our www.peoplenomics.com readers - as we go looking for ways to dial in the economic system so that it becomes more human-centric rather than underwriting of investment in machinery which displaces humans.

---

The headlines about the current economic malaise keep piling up like the leaves at this time of year:

• AIG violated investor rights in accepting bailout, suit says.

• Cullen-Frost "Banker tells why he said no  to bailout money" (the Texas bank's stock rallied 3%)

• On the take-the-money side of things, "GE, CIT rise after report on bailout funds."

 

Globally, the credit crisis continues ricocheting around.  "Bank crisis hits had in Ukraine's coal belt" where deposit withdrawals are being limited.

 

As I noted before the election, the Obama administration is not likely to do anything quickly with regard to the conduct of the wars.  Already the headlines inform that in "Iraq: No hasty change in US policy with Obama win."  In Kandahar province Afghanistan, a wedding party has been bombed and lots of dead are reported there.  Even if the Obamanation wanted to change policies, it's hands off till January as George Bush continues his rein.

 

The key thing to remember is that the wars are a major economic stimulus, and the short-term bailout/buyoff of the banksters has pretty much run its course.  All that money to the AIG's of the world is likely offshore and as soon as the next bump/crisis in the hedge fund world comes along, the counterparty failures will occur anyway; the massive taxpayer-back infusions having done nothing more than let the big fish skate to leave the smaller fish hung out to dry while buying the incumbent tax & oil party a little time.   Now, times up because more failures are already in the pipeline.  That the Obamanation will be tested immediately after taking office is a foregone conclusion.   That's what's coming and if you don't believe it, your grasp of how  big 'hot money' works is sadly deficient.

 

So while the Presidency has changed, the operating paradigm hasn't, at least in a major way that I can see from today's 'news flow'.  The country is still hip-deep in problems and lacking a sense of humor, although I figure it was in good taste that San Francisco voters turned down a chance to chance to change the name of a sewage plant to honor the current resident of the White House.  Despite lowest common denominator television/programming, America still has some class. 

 

I'd expect the market to pull back from its recent optimism today realizing, as we do around here, that sometimes 'the more things change, the more they stay the same.'  Start of a paradigm shift?  Ask me when we get to next summer whether it's anywhere near enough...doubt it.

 

The republicorps have managed to set up a handoff of a " feeble economy awash in red ink." and no telling how much further damage these latter day socialists will be able to do between now and inauguration day, lame ducks or not.

---

Several readers have offered that Obama did not take lobbyist or industry association money - so my expectations that little will change may be way off base... I figure we'll see if there's been any major paradigm shifting six months from now... I'm a firm believer in Dr. Doom (Marc Faber's) view of things, namely that the future likely holds stat bankruptcy for the U.S.  Paradigm shifting is spendy.

---

When George Bush won in 2004 the mainstream media busily bandied about the word 'mandate'.  Not hearing that this morning.  Say, you don't think the PowersThatBe are a little scared, do you?  President change is one thing...paradigm change is something else again...

 

Other Returns

A mixed bag of change in Massachusetts, where voters decided to decriminalize possession of small amounts of pot, but held onto the state's income tax.

 

South Dakota rejected an abortion ban and a plan to make it a state crime to engage in naked short-selling.  That's good news to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association which seems to figure that the SEC's the right place for such regulation. And, oh, by-the-by, the NY Post reports that the SEC's renewed interest in naked short selling is starting to dig in...

 

War Watch

Now that the Bush administration can allow/back an attack on Iran - since the outcome won't impact our elections, Iran has figured today would be a good time to warn that no violations of its airspace will be allowed.

---

Besides the missile attack  in Israel this morning, Israeli media report Hezbollah has been missile shopping in Moscow.

 

No danger of peace breaking out today...

 

Gas Prices:  Going Up?

Although the price of gasoline has been under $2.00 a gallon in some parts of the Midwest,  I expect now that the election is over, the price of gas should be going back up quickly.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see $3.00 by the time you get ready for the "over the river and through the woods' travel.

 

Bit Tariffs on the 'Net

AT&T is planning to test internet billing based on bandwidth being used.  If this goes well (e.g. they don't lose more people than they gain in revenue), look for them to roll this out nationally.  And if they do it, others seem likely to.

---

I don't know if you've thought this through, or not, but do you think that bit tariffs for internet access could put a limit on the expansion of free public wifi points, hmmm?

 

Super Wireless in the Works

The FCC has given a green light to Google and Microsoft to gobble up that wireless space which will become available as digital television comes along.  If you're a home electronics tinkerer, perhaps you can convert that old analog TV to a wireless receiver - war watching maybe, instead of wardriving...

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

 Coping: Throw Aways Votes?

So here's one to re-ponder (if that's a word):  Is voting for a candidate with no chance of winning a 'throw away'?

"I take exception to the notion that a vote for a third party is a 'throw away' vote. We have been brainwashed into believing that we have to vote for the lesser of two evils. We should be voting for who we think will best lead our country. We should not allow ourselves to be governed by the fear that the bad guy is going to win.

The whole damned thing is just a real shame."

Maybe he means a real 'sham.'  Here's the thing:  The duopoly has a vested interest in limiting the number of political parties and choices in America - and it has been going on how long?  One reader suggested that if America was really a democratic republic, there should be 8-10 parties minimum in order to encompass the wide range of interests of the citizenry.

 

I can almost see a design pattern here:  If here are two parties and 500 political action committees/major lobby groups inside the beltway, that might be the equivalent of  10 parties and 100 PACs.  Just a thought, but from what I've read the size, power, and influence of lobbyists seems somewhat reduced in nations where there is a broader range of political choice.  Curiously, we have made political influence peddling a major industry.

 

Given that, and given that no one pays much mind to what voters want anyway, is a 'protest' vote for an unelectable a 'throw-away' or not?  Like I said - re-pondering required.  But mine will be shaded by the recent outrageous despise for the public's will shown in the bankster bailouts /socialization of banking.

 

Weighty Thoughts

One of our readers, experimenting with their weight before and after showering, sent in this note:

George, my scale's lithium battery just died, so I imagine that was the reason for the strange two-pound "dirt" factor. I'll resume the experiment next week after I get a new battery!

LOL...People don't usually think about high-resolution and NIST-traceable standards for home weight measurement, LOL.  Does anyone make a scale at anything near affordable that will do a 20th of a pound?

 

Another input:

"Weight loss occurs during a hot shower from water loss (sweat). Ask any wrestler that has to lose a pound quick! Looks like for proper research you will also have to take cold showers and record results. This will also help prepare you for the next survival situation. Thanks for all your hard work."

Having never had the inclination to learn the shower habits of wrestlers, I didn't know this - but I never shower in water that hot...

 

Letter of the Day

Here's a dandy:

I believe I have began to gain the ability to tap into the subconscious awareness, "the Force" so to speak. For my entire life I have studied martial arts and history, as well as spirituality and universal balance. In the summer of 2000 I began receiving prophetic images in my dreams which I originally used to write a silly movie script about a post-apocalyptic world that had reverted to feudal like societies. The prelude to my movie script went something like this. In the year 2012, following a period of conflict and turmoil between the United States and the Middle east, a massive nuclear war will be unleashed, completely reshaping the world as we know it and creating an entirely new planet, new continents, new oceans, new polar ice caps. Massive destruction and death will ensue and the population of the world will dwindle close to extinction. This silly movie script became a very scary thing to me on 9/11/2001 when war between the US and the Middle east did in fact erupt. I was still not entirely convinced that I was actually seeing the future in my dreams and continued writing my movie as if it were nothing more then a future box office epic destined to bring me millions of dollars. I began researching history and religion and myths and legends and prophecies and soon began to realize that I had tapped into something out of this world. I began finding connections between things in the past that prior historians had not detected, I began realizing that this world is ruled by those who hold absolute power. A secret world gov't that determines our public leaders and our national policies, not only in the USA but in all world governments. I suppose you could call them Illuminati, agents of the dark Lord who prepare the planet for his return. The movie grew into an epic of over six movies with one underlying story, and not long after that it became even longer as I had to explain more and more about how and why things were occurring the way they were, The script now is composed of 3 major segments, the first segment contains 4 movie scripts, the second contains six, and the last one has who knows how many, the scripts are far from completion, and I fear they will never be finished. I fear I am writing a Divine history of the universe, a history written from a god's point of view, a history written by someone who exists outside of time and space, someone who is not bound by their power. It is very different then the history you learned in school, and this is because the history we learned was fabricated by the Illuminati who strive to keep their dominance and existence a secret, no one wants to hear that the world is merely a giant "risk" board for 2 Illuminati overlords. I finally realized my true potential as a prophetic individual when in 2006 I was driving through my town, a town that had been a small farming town of just 800 people 15 years ago, now a growing metropolis of over 80,000. Three years earlier I had experienced one of my most vivid prophetic dreams, so real I felt like I was there, so real I even had physical wounds that I had received in the dream when I awoke. The dream started with me waking up as if it were a normal day, heading out to my car and preparing to travel to I assume either work or school at the local university. However when I reached my car in the dream a small group of armed men came running down my street, one lobbed a grenade towards my vehicle, which exploded and caused my car to explode which caused me to be blown back and seriously wounded by one of my tires. I was knocked unconscious in the dream, and awoke in the dream in my basement. All around me were neighbors who were armed and seemed to be very afraid. Then suddenly I'm in my town center walking down the street towards a very unique building that I did not recognize at the time. The building had a large circular roof, kind of like a water tower, the UFO looking kind. The building was engulfed in flames as were the surrounding buildings, which some I did recognize as being from my home town. In 2006 I saw the building for the first time the building that I had seen burning in my dream three years before. That's when I knew I really had prophetic potential. I don't really know what compelled me to write to you, I guess it was sort of your computer's predictions which kind of make sense to me, actually they probably make better sense to me then they do to most, cuz like you're web bot computer program, I too can somewhat use "the force" I guess I'm just worried that because if my writings are in fact the future, it means that in the next few months we are going to see the start of WW3, which is merely the tip of the ice berg compared to the threats that will face the planet in the millennium to follow, culminating with another Big Bang event that will bring an ultimate end to our universe and the development of a much larger multiverse, 12 times more complex and 12 times longer than our own. I now hold a vast amount of information in my head, I can tell you how our universe was created, how it will end, and what will occur within it, I can tell you what existed before our universe, how it was created and how it came to an end with a Big Bang that created our own universe, and I can even attempt to tell you how the next big bang will create an entirely new universe. Well I hope you find it interesting, what I have told you, I was also wandering if you could use your program to look up any specific words that I feel will be quite relevant for future events, these words and phrases are listed below. I tried the same thing with the Bible Code people but they just blew me off, I hope you will not be as narrow-minded as they were. I only seek to save the world, no personal profit in it for me, just trying to take some responsibility because it seems that I may have great power. -Syntekia/ Syntekian/ Syntek -The Species of Man kind -Genetic Dragons -Dragon Knights -Demonic Army -Demonic Wars -Nuclear Holocaust -Sinking of Antarctica -Polar Shift/relocation -The Earth Alliance -Tecine Revolution -Illuminati Reemergence -Templarian Society -Demon Gem -Holy Shield -Syntekian Guardian -Syntekian Devils -Mystic Epoch -Dragotaine Serum -Demon Portal/Tazmania Island -Arkian Covenant -Spiritual Rebirth -Sequelia Siclair -Sequelia Quintessia -Dagonia/ Dagonet -Mana Tree -Mana Souls -Atlantis

Well, couple of things:  First - sounds like a dandy series of scripts to read - and if want to publish them, consider publishing them and selling them as one of our Peoplenomics books (shared royalties to cover my costs).  Then, on the matter of the words, the linguistics work of HalfPastHuman is not 'word' oriented that way - in other words, we can't plug in a term like "Atlantis' and roll it forward, sorry. 

 

Judging by the tone of your note, however, I'd say you may be starting to touch 'the stream' - and once you start doing that, one of the first discoveries is that there aren't really adequate 'words' to describe events - as you no doubt now realize.  I suppose that's why religion/teachers/seers over a long period of history have used parables, poetic forms, and stories in order to try and encapsulate or convey thoughts, moral issues, emotions, and decisions.

 

All that aside, I'll keep your note on file as we do get the odd passerby through here who occasionally knows someone who knows someone who might be able to get you along that movie track.  Problem of course is that time's against the project...

---

Send comments and such to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---

 

---

Tuesday November 4, 2008

Don't Bother with the Obvious

I think I was a major market news exec too long.  I tend to look at the 'flow of news' as something akin to a large Vegas-style sleight of hand show.  While folks' attention is turned elsewhere, the real story is likely to be going on somewhere else. Seen it many times.

 

Take today's non-choice presidential content:  Both candidates receive the bulk of their money from corporate sponsors, both have no plans to immediately end the wars, and neither has any strong endorsement of true 'hands off' capitalism. 

 

Speaking of which, my neighbor across the road asked me if I was voting for the socialist candidate in the election, to which I replied "Oh, mean the republicorp one of the democorp one?"

 

The problem as I explained it (being politely mindful that I might raise his blood pressure) is that I have never seen such socialistic behavior in America as the recent bailouts by the republicorps spending to save their buddies down on Wall Street.  But then again, the other candidate is likely to do as much redistribution of wealth - or more, but maybe a bit down the foodchain - but he doesn't like guns, by reports. 

 

So what's a fellow to do?  I mean besides 'throw away' a vote on a third party candidate, even though the most credible one will not be on the ballot?

---

There's a report out of the Mail Online today that we should all "Prepare for chaos: U.S. electoral system waned it 'can't cope' as historic number of voters cast their ballot."

 

There are number of scenarios being spammed around the net, ranging from rabid rightwing talk of rioting in the streets to equally rabid leftwing talk of stolen elections.  There's also never-ending speculation about what could happen if the U.S. Supreme Court hears and were to uphold a challenge to Obama's citizenship.  But while it makes good viral emails, I'd figure the real odds are extremely low.  Lower, than say, a close enough vote here or there to cause recount claims..

 

More likely would be an echo of 2000.  Picture if you will what the mood of the country would be if Obama were to win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote.  Now that one might get messy.  And as if to put a little 'backbone' to it, The Nation headlines today that "No one should concede a contested election".

---

Still, it's with that kind of 'matters little' attitude - not to mention that the linguistics over at www.halfpasthuman.com indicate that the specific winner of the election doesn't matter much to the ultimate outcome of things (like the summer of hell in 2009) - that I choose to sit back with a wider view and see what the BIG stories are that as sliding under the radar, preoccupying the talking heads on the Cyclops, while the grand distraction is played out.

 

Turns out, you don't have to look very far.

 

The story that should be pushing for equal footing with the presidential contest is work that the "U.S. mulls expanding 'rescue' to more firms" as the Treasury and Fed team up with new ways to pump money into the 'walking dead' consumer economy.

 

Not only are reports holding to the myth that the bailout was a $700-billion dollar deal - when it was $850-billion and yes, the pork is a deal cost too, so I count it, but beyond that the republicorp socialists are now looking at writing fat checks to outfits like GE and CIT Group.

 

Lenders to get more money - and maybe hedgers, too?  How many times do these guys get rescued?  Can't anyone besides me articulate the obvious question?   Blue Mountain Capital Management has frozen withdrawals.

 

What's not reported as a Big Headline - being shoved to the background by the Grand Distraction today, is that "Credit continue to become tighter in the US" despite all the freebies and gimme's to the bankster class.

 

CNN's got a pretty good article about the "Lame-duck Congress: Economy in Play --- Lawmakers might convene after election to take up the economy.  But the fate of any stimulus is uncertain."  When you get down to it, there's really not much that can be done but ride things out.

 

And down further.  Still, the Grand Distraction will make it seem like change is possible, until the votes are  counted and the almost predictable controversy erupts.  Nevertheless, the transition of America to a highly socialist Checkbook Republic, ruled by PACs and industry groups (e.g. special interests) seems pretty much complete.

 

Based on that, the market should rally strongly a bit further.  It's like a "Heads I win, tails you lose" proposition anymore.  Malinvestment is being rewarded like never before in history. 

 

Carried to its extreme - as most trends are - we might as well start boarding up the college Business Schools right now.  What's the point of learning about corporate ethics and how to manage profits and losses, when we're becoming a country where folks get to win regardless of losses and where ethics are sold for votes and 'support" of various specialty groups?

 

Yes, I'll be voting today.  But with a heavy heart, for sure.  I look at the economy, where headlines like "U.S. Monthly sales of new vehicles at 25-year low" and "Anti-Foreclosure Plan stalls in White House" and I ask myself how anyone can believe that the very folks who caused the problem are going to be any good at solving the problem?   I think you know the answer.  I'll cast my vote with a clear conscience. 

 

The Job Crunch to Come

"Manufacturing hits 26-year low, hints that recession has begun."  Yah think?  Now is probably a great time to suck-em-up at work, bring the boss latte's and such.  Political suck points mean a lot when job cuts come along...unless you're in a collective bargaining unit. 

 

Which reminds me that "U.S. auto sales fall 32% to lower total in 17-years."  Shades of the autos in September of '29, eh?

---

Headlines like "Microsoft and Yahoo duel over who can lose the most media executives" should tell you this is serious.  And bound to grow in the MSM once the election/distraction fades.  Of course then it will be too late...

 

Diploma Mill Story?

Iran has fired its interior minister over what's reported as a fake degree from Oxford.

 

Pakistan's Reply

You may remember the headline from yesterday's report "Petraeus visits Pakistan as it fights for survival."  Now the headline comes out that gives a little more clue as to what 'surviving' means: "Pakistan says next US leader must stop attacks..."  I expect these headlines will drone on...

 

GPS Lingerie

Now we get down to the important stuff.  "Outrage over 'chastity belt' lingerie fitted with GPS tracking system" says the headline.

 

The mind leaps with the mergers and acquisitions possibilities:  Trimble and Magellan could go after Limited Brands - which owns Victoria's Secret.  It's too early to speculate who'd come out...er... on top.

---

In the spirit of election day, should we mention the nudist group that wants a clothing optional polling place?

 

Fat Kids/Sick Kids

Type 2 diabetes is on the rise among youngsters - and linked to obesity. 

---

Speaking of sugars and almost-sugars - Jason's Deli has become the first in the nation high fructose corn syrup-(HFCS) - free chain.

---

I've been watching this HFCS change develop for more than a year since it popped out of modelspace in the HPH work.  Reacting to the anti-HFCS movement, Karo (syrup) Lite is being rolled out.  I plan to pick up a bottle and read the ingredient list next time I go to town...curious where the sweet comes from... didn't see it in the press release.

 

Odd Christmas Gifts Department

Mystic Caverns in Arkansas is for sale on eBay.  With a $900,000 starting price and 15,000 visitors per year, I pencil it out to a little over $4-bucks a person just to service the debt.  Still, it could be the ultimate tourist destination and fallout shelter.  Long as New Madrid is quiet.

 

Fungal Friend

Meet Gliocladium roseum - a type of fungus that essentially makes diesel from cellulose of trees.  Now, how to commercialize it...  Hmmm...LSD and diesel.,..fungi wouldn't be a bad specialty in school, huh?

 

Shanghai's "Department of Ooops"

NPR reports a dandy new cruise ship terminal is open in Shanghai, but some ships can't get there because a bridge enroute is too low.  I have it!  The ships can do the Peking Duck...

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping: Kid-centric Life

I'm not exactly a 'spare the rod and spoil the child' type, but there are times when I wonder if the national fascination with catering to kids isn't just a little overdone.  Latest case in point comes to us today from south London where we read how "foot massages calm unruly pupils."  With all due respect to the massage therapists of the planet, this takes playing footie with discipline to a whole new level..

 

Bacteria Study

Here's some science for you:  "Women lead me in bacteria, hands down."  Who'd have thought?

 

Shower Weight

Seems I'm not the only one interested in how much weight I gain in the shower from apparent water absorption.  Here's an email:

"Hi George

Your experimental proposal on water absorbing into the skin is very interesting. I am a research scientist, so this grabbed my attention. However, I think some controls are in order. Here's some suggestions:

1) make sure that the environmental conditions of your bathroom scale are unaffected by the humidity/temperature in the shower room. Place it in a different room altogether. 2) take triplicate weights both before / after the shower and average them (also calculate the standard deviation of the three measurements if you really want to go all the way).

With several months worth of data, you should be able to determine whether your water absorption hypothesis is valid!!!

Good luck, and thanks for your insights!"

And another email:

"George I've been doing the before/after shower weigh-in religiously for several years and about 80% of the time, the after weight is about .2 to .4 LESS THAN the before weigh-in.

Go figure."

Hmmm...maybe you're just washing off a lot more dirt?  And then there's this:

"Not sure as to quantity absorbed but I have heard that moisturizer will be many times more effective if applied to the skin after shower/bath and before the skin has a chance to dry out completely. Its something about sealing the moisture into the skin and it seems to work. The same thing applies to hair if using no-rinse type products. This could come in handy when more people are heating with wood/coal stoves or campfires if the Mad Max scenario comes to pass. Although soft skin and dry, flyaway hair may not be a top priority at that time, it may cut down on the cracked and bloody feet from those hiking boots that were not broken in properly.

I went to a very expensive dermatologist a number of years back and she said advised me that best way to keep skin moist was to shower and then put on some plain white Crisco on to seal in moisture.

I gave up the practice after experiencing difficulty determining where the French fries  or fried chicken stopped and my fingers began. 

 

The dermo-lady suggested I see an ophthalmologist - good idea - and I might get down that far on my to-do list one of these first days, if I could ever find the damn list.

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

---end snip and save section ---

 

---

Monday November 3, 2008

Little Things, BIG Things, Next of the BOHICAN's

There was a note in the last Half Past Human ALTA report (or it may have been in a background briefing with Cliff) that there was some mention of a 'terrorist caught' or terrorist on the lamb kind of story out of Germany...seems it popped up in immediacy values in August or September sometime.  This is one of those little stories that we often just look at the reports (which seem to do a better than chance job of looking at the future) and think "Oh, so this is what modelspace was telling us..." and go on.  In this case, a "Wanted German Terrorist Surfaces on al Qaeda Video" didn't get much notice in the US, but the story nevertheless occurred.

 

I mention this because it's the little stuff - often not quite precisely right in some aspect, but appear at the appointed time, that keeps me so fascinated with the reports.

---

With the latest HPH data gathering run underway, I have gotten a few emails from folks asking, in so many words, "What was the big deal about your October 7th date and why did I buy all this Top Ramen?"

 

The answer is both simple, yet complex:  The model always tends to err on the side of 'extreme' for the reason that it seems to sense future media buzz...and the media buzz in the aftermath of a story is often much more emotional (sometimes almost hysterical at times) in tone, more than the actual event warrants, especially as a future events fades into future history.  Also, I mentioned many times that October 7th was an 'around there" date. 

 

So what good is the project?  A lot, it turns out:  Suppose you had decided to close out all stock positions a couple of trading days before the "October 7th" range.  That would have meant closing out at Dow October 3 at 10,325. Then, if you had decided not to wade back in until three trading days after, you could have gotten back into the market well under Dow 8,000.  A 20% swing to the downside is worth avoiding, I'd guess, and if the whole truth is revealed (and why not?), I managed to do fine in an S&P put in the period.

 

With the baseline report for the ALTA .report which will look out to about September of 2009 on the table, I don't think it would be unreasonable to divulge that around November 14th through Mid December when the 'twin quakes' pop up, we could be looking at another market slide of some seriousness, although be mindful the model doesn't  predict markets or averages per se.  Rather, it's more along the lines of 'things economic' and as such, the model seems to be saying "Holidays will be a real bummer" this year, although in much more articulate/archetypical values.

 

So, could the market make another slide down 20%?  Maybe more...but it could be more generalized as in 'economic malaise settles over the world kind of thing.  "Retailers brace for a gloomy Christmas" offers a headline from South Africa.  Morgan Stanley has reportedly canceled Christmas parties, as the problems of Wall Street continue to simmer.

 

In Europe, The Scotsman's biz section forecasts "Christmas is coming, the goose is getting fat...but profits are lean."  And by the model, gonna be not just lean, but more along the lines of an anorexic approaching death.

---

Say - should mention that the 'rotten eggs' meme has been hanging around HPH modelspace for what, a year or so?  Hence, with the report that "China official says tainted eggs 'isolated' case, I tend not to believe it and that the eggs aspect of the melamine problem seems likely to go extra large or maybe jumbo  in public awareness...

---

Getting back to the markets, the more or less constant stream of 'bottom-pickers' on the Cyclops in the living room has done its job:  The market bounced last week.  Likely we'll see the market react to tomorrow's election outcome and a whole passel of economic numbers, starting with construction spending today, factory orders and auto sales tomorrow.  But the BIG day for the market (other than Wednesday reaction to the election outcome) will be Friday when the unemployment, hourly earnings, and consumer debt are all tabled for your number crunching/dining pleasure.

---

The real stories - the really BIG ones that do make a difference in people's lives - generally move slowly and are macro-trends.  An Indy Star blog offers that "Without trade, future would look bleaker", but it doesn't get into the guts of what shapes up as the end of global capitalism over the next couple of years and the result of that sea-state change on the world. 

 

Over the next couple of weeks, we'll be watching again for the Port reports off the US west coast, but already if you know where to look, you can see the slide accelerating downward.  Miami's Latin Business Chronicle, for example notices that "Latin Trade Slows Down."

 

The BIG story - somewhat underplayed because it is moving 'slowly' and that masks visibility - is that the problems in the banking industry have - and continue to - slip over into the Trade arena where the specific mechanism is letters of credit which are becoming harder and harder to get.  In the Middle East, where much of the current 'boom times' are being financed with paper debt,  the "Credit crisis tsunami' threatens world trade" is being taken as seriously as a heart attack.  Same in the UK where the Times Online notices that "Commerce becalmed over letters of credit."

---

I don't know about you, but I'd sure feel a lot better about the taxpayer bailout of the banksters if someone could just put up the flow chart so we could follow along as the crisis develops.  "If rates go up here, lending falls apart there, which ripples into this sector over here..." That kind of thing.

 

I suspect that the reason we haven't seen the logical flow-mapping (in strategic planning terms, it would be more of a decision matrix) is that one doesn't exist.  In other words, I'd bet a nickel or two that all this $1.x  to $2.x trillion dollars of giveaways has been based on nothing more than a gut-check by people in control of the public's purse.

 

If that were not the case, we wouldn't be aghast at the headline this morning in the Washington Post which reveals that "Effectiveness of AIG's $143 billion rescue questioned."   NSS.

 

By the way, if I count right, the first page of the WashPost story uses the term bailout once in the second paragraph, and then three times on the second page of the story.  The word rescue is used (including the headline) four times on the first page of the story and only once on the second page - that was in the headline which was repeated.  I just find that kind of...ummm...interesting.

 

Especially in light of what I suspect is 'inside the beltway spin' to use the term 'rescue' over 'bailout' or 'giveaway.'

 

The point of the W-Post story is pretty clear:  BOHICA!  (bend over, here it comes again)

 

Meantime, UBS may go after Lehman because what was sold as "100 percent principal protected notes, good for retirement" are down to pennies on the dollar. UBS sold them to their clients....

---

All of which is not to be a naysayer or doomster on the economy.  Far from it.  Boeing workers are returning to the plants today. And markets in Euroland are bouncing higher amid hopes that banks on the far side of the pond will cut rates as our Fed did last week here in the Checkbook Republic. 

 

With10-days till the next seatbelt sign going on, guess what Robin Landry sees?

 

Landry's Latest

With his kind permission, here's Robin Landry's latest note to his managed account clients...

"I have been going over the charts this weekend and little has changed as far as the larger trend. It still remains down in my opinion. The rallies that have taken place since the low on Oct 10th are making a 4th wave, which is necessary to correct the oversold condition that occurs when a 3rd wave momentum low occurs.

Then a fifth wave takes the market to a lower low on less momentum and the conditions for a more sustainable rally occur. I have yet to see the conditions that satisfy a viable bottom which will allow for a multi month rally. I am often asked if I could be wrong and the answer is always, Of Course, no one is right all the time. I do have a saying that I repeat often. When I'm wrong, I'm not wrong very long, because I will change my position when the data dictates it, but not before.

So far the indicators, that I use to eliminate as much of the subjectivity as possible, tell me the low on Oct. 10th is not the final low before a larger rally can occur. Since corrective waves can take a number of patterns, it takes time to eliminate many of them and thus narrow it down to the most likely.

I still favor the triangle, but the possibility of a failed 5th wave cannot be ruled out. My indicators however point to this 4th wave continuing until the downside momentum is worked off, then look out below.

The bottom still looks to be at least the 7400 area, with a momentum low to the 5800 area a real possibility.

A rally past the intraday high on 10/14/08 of 9794.37 would cause me to consider alternate counts. If this happens, I will update these comments with the next most likely count taking place.

The most important thing to remember, as I keep repeating, is this is a vicious bear market that will last for several years and any rallies are to be used as opportunities to raise cash and prepare for the next decline which will make the market decline we have seen, so far, seem like a walk in the park. As always, questions and comments are welcome.

Robin   ( rlandry@allegiance.tv )

PS: Be sure to vote on Tuesday. Let your voice be heard.

As I've said in the past, when the predictive linguistics line up with Robin's very reliable proprietary stew of technicals, I just look at my TreasuryDirect account and my continued holdings in the metals.  And on metals, the new high for gold should come when we finally get to the bottom of the fifth and start a new move higher, but personally, I don't expect that for quite some time yet...

Pick a War, Any War

Oh sure, there was a "Landslide UN vote in fabor of Arms Trade Treaty" this weekend, but who's gonna let a little thing like that slow down the pace of war promotion?

• Britain is apparently thinking about sending troops as "Congo rebels warn government will fall if no talks" are held.

• "Petraeus visits Pakistan as it fights 'for survival'"

• In the background: "Britain seeks block on EU imports from Israeli settlements"

• And in India, a general "Strike paralyzes Indian state hit by blasts" last week.  Wonder how many outsourcing geniuses will be impacted, and how much tech support will be shut down today...

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping:  Weight Soaking Wet

This may sound absurd, but I've started weighing myself before the daily shower, and then weighing myself a second time, right after I towel off. 

 

"Have you flipped out, George?"

 

Nope.  Personal science project.  I am trying to figure out how much water my skin absorbs in a shower.  Close as I can tell, it's somewhere between a half and full pound of water, so I will make observations over the next year or so and average then out to overcome the digital scale's half pound resolution.

 

Come on, I can't be the only one to ever try to nail this down.  Isn't there something in a dermatology textbook about skin moisture levels before and after bathing?

 

Catching Up with Vacuum Tubes

As long as I'm laying out the odd thoughts of Monday, here's another one which folks don't generally think about.  When transistor radios were brand new technology in the 1950's, people would marvel at their 'instant on' feature.  "Yessir," went the sales pitch, "No more waiting for those old vacuum tubes to warm up..."

 

If you don't happen to be a ham radio operator, you might not know that the warm-up time for vacuum tubes used in television receivers is generally on the order of 11-seconds.

 

As I flipped on the television this morning, I couldn't help but notice that the onboard computer system takes a full 8-seconds to boot.

 

Here's my point:  The time from turning on a television set to actually seeing a picture on it has improved what, three whole seconds since 1955!

 

I've give you credit for the diagonal size of the picture doubling and better sound, but a three-second gain, well....just strikes me as funny.

 

Geeks in the Cloud Department

Microsoft is getting refocused on cloud computing with Windows Azure and Office Web.  This, no doubt due in part to the success of Google Docs.  If you have high enough web reliability, I guess it makes some sense, but not for me, thanks.

 

Paper>Web Migration

Here's one to watch closely:  The Christian Science Monitor is planning to migrate from a daily paper-based operation to a web-based weekly instead of daily.Not only will it save a lot of trees, presumably, but also may turn into the prototype for a lot of old-style pulp & publish operations that

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---