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"Wars And Rumors of Wars"

The headlines are almost on the verge of making me lose sleep: "Pakistan redeploying troops to Indian border" in the wake of the recent Mumbai attacks doesn't make me drift gently into deep slumber.

 

Already, we're starting to see stories outlining various "Scenarios: What war with Pakistan could mean for India."

 

One reason for getting up and writing this unscheduled Saturday morning report is so that I could size up the relative militaries a bit.  Let's start with India which according to Wikipedia has:

"...a total troop strength of around 2.5 million (1.3 million active and 1.2 million reserve) and is the second largest standing army in the world. It is a completely voluntary service, with a clause that the only means of entry is voluntary - the military draft never having been imposed in India. The Indian Army is one of the major participants in various United Nation missions. The army has rich combat experience in diverse terrains, considering India's diversity on this front, and also has a distinguished history of serving in United Nations peacekeeping operations.

The force is presently headed by the Chief of Army Staff, General Deepak Kapoor, with Lt Gen Noble Thamburaj as his deputy. The highest rank in the Indian Army is Field Marshal, but it is an honorary rank[1] and appointments are made by the President of India on the advice of the Union Cabinet of Ministers, only in exceptional circumstances. The late S.H.F.J. Manekshaw and late K.M. Cariappa are the only two officers to have attained this rank. Though a Field Marshal is an honorary rank, the officer is held to 'never retire', and are entitled to uniform and flag as applicable to serving (active duty) officers for life."

The Pakistani military looks like this:

"The Pakistan Army  is the largest branch of the Pakistan military, and is mainly responsible for protection of the state borders, the security of administered territories and defending the national interests of Pakistan within the framework of its international obligations.

The Pakistan Army, combined with the Navy and Air Force, makes Pakistan's armed forces the seventh largest military in the world. The Army is modeled on the United Kingdom armed forces [citation needed] and came into existence after the independence in 1947. It has an active force of 619,000 personnel and 528,000 men in reserve that continue to serve until the age of 45 and several other groups functioning under its many umbrella organisations. The Pakistani Army is a volunteer force and has been involved in many conflicts with India. Combined with this rich combat experience, the Army is also actively involved in contributing to United Nations peacekeeping efforts. Other foreign deployments have consisted of Pakistani Army personnel as advisers in many African, South Asian and Arab countries. The Pakistani Army maintained division and brigade strength presences in some of the Arab countries during the past Arab-Israeli Wars, and the first Gulf War to help the Coalition. The Pakistani Army is led by General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani the Chief of Army Staff, who replaced Pervez Musharraf "

In gross numbers then, India has Pakistan by a margin of 2:1 or better.  This brings us to the real/global concern about any potential conflict between India and Pakistan:  At what point would one  country, or the other, resort to the 'nuclear option' if things on the ground were going badly in wartime?

 

The Federation of American Scientists has a very good summary of the nuclear potential of each country.  The summary for India is here, while the Pakistan summary is here.

 

A quick refresher if you've been pushing thoughts of nuclear war out of your mind since the 'fall' of the Soviet empire:  There are basically two kinds of nukes; fission and fusion.  The easiest to build is a fission device using highly enriched uranium (HEU).  India has demonstrated thermonuclear capability while Pakistan is only known to have the smaller fission devices.  Regardless, fission devices are right-sized 'tactical' weapons while in general, the thermonuclear-sized tend to be developed as 'city-killers'.

 

The decision when/if to escalate from conventional to nuclear conflict is based on a military's standing 'doctrine'.  The FAS Guide says of Pakistan:

"Pakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine, as evidenced by President Pervez Musharraf's statements in May, 2002. Musharraf said that Pakistan did not want a conflict with India but that if it came to war between the nuclear-armed rivals, he would "respond with full might." These statements were interpreted to mean that if pressed by an overwhelming conventional attack from India, which has superior conventional forces, Pakistan might use its nuclear weapons. "

Bear in mind that doctrine ebbs and flows depending who's in power and the new (post-Musharraf) government in Pakistan is what you'd have to call a wild-card.  And they are moving up troops to the border...

 

India, on the other hand hints the FAS Guide may be a bit less trigger-happy because:

"India has a declared nuclear no-first-use policy and is in the process of developing a nuclear doctrine based on "credible minimum deterrence." In August 1999, the Indian government released a draft of the doctrine which asserts that nuclear weapons are solely for deterrence and that India will pursue a policy of "retaliation only." The document also maintains that India "will not be the first to initiate a nuclear first strike, but will respond with punitive retaliation should deterrence fail" and that decisions to authorize the use of nuclear weapons would be made by the Prime Minister or his 'designated successor(s).'"

Seeing all these pieces in motion, I'm drawn to the conclusion that what's going on right now is a fair bit of posturing.  Sure, Pakistan could seize momentary initiative from India exploiting non first use, but after that?  Mushrooms galore, good-bye Karachi and that's that.

 

Behind the headlines, the Kashmir region, which began the 14th century largely Hindu has been subjected to what I think of as 'gun-point conversion" to Islam.  And, indeed, the suspects in the Mumbai attacks were thought to have launched from Pakistan.

 

The key,  in terms of 'next developments' is whether the militants/terrorists/non-state armies can trick the state players into doing their work for them.

 

Question:  You're a small third party and you've brought two major potential adversaries to a 'brink'.  What would it take to get a real/large/nuclear conflict going? 

 

Answer: Another Mumbai-sized attack on India concurrent with some kind of event/bombing/missile attack/assassination in Pakistan which could be claimed to have Indian origins.  Then we've got a mess.  King-sized freaking mess.

 

After a bit of early morning pondering, I think that's where we are.  So if the desire of the gun-point conversion crowd is to draw Pakistan's government into direct and escalating conflict with India, just a couple of moderate to large-scale attacks  on either side of the border about now would be all it might take.  A couple of political assassination, a mass bombing or two, and you've got something that would provide the Archduke Ferdinand kind of spark in the region.

 

That's what we'll be watching for in the headlines and hope they don't come across the wires...

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Israel meantime has move troops closer to Gaza with experts thinking it looks like a sweep into Gaza may be in the offing.  Iran is trying to stir things up by sending an 'aid ship' to the area and while I don't know about you, I'd sure be interested in knowing how their cargo manifest reads; weapons or medical aid?  Not that anyone will give us a straight answer, of course. 

 

Word is that "Israel wants to teach Hamas a lesson, but not to reconquer Gaza."  Not specified is how many people get killed in a 'lesson' versus a 'reconquering' but that should be clear in a couple of months -- assuming the fighting is over by then.  We know from this morning's headlines that 140-killed is not enough...

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And so we slide along toward the end of 2008.  No danger of "Peace on Earth, Good Will toward Men..."  Not on this rock. Not this holiday season.   But what the hell?  Where's the money & power in peace, anyway?

 

Besides, it's been dandy for gold which popped up more than $20 in spot prices on Friday.  One more war or even a good rumor oughta push gold back over $900.

 

Around The Ranch: Digging In

Friday turned out to be marvelously productive for me.  Not only did I get the DC wiring buried for the solar power system to run my office, but in addition to that I figured out the answer to yesterday's ham radio trivia question. 

 

As you'll recall, I was trying to get Ham Radio Deluxe (a dandy assortment of digital modes under one software roof) to 'play nicely' with either my Icom 746 or Icom 735.  Turns out that the Tigertronics USB interface doesn't connect up with the radio's computer control line for reading of frequency and mode data.  Shoot-darn!  That means I will have to install a separate CI-V.

 

Still, had a number of nice chats on 20-meters with folks around the country...PSK-31 is a lot like chatting in Yahoo Messenger.  Except there's no internet involved, just one radio/computer lashup to another a couple of thousand miles off bouncing off the sky.

 

Of course it's a time sink of monumental proportions, like either one of us needs another one of those, right?

 

Peoplenomics.com 

The Annual Forecast Issue

Every year about this time, at least since 2000, I've made it a practice to issue an 'annual forecast' in order that to have a set of expectations against which investment decisions can be benchmarked.  To accomplish this, I've used numerous methods in the past include nonlinear trend projection, basic econometric modeling, and even to some extent predictive linguistics.  But this year, due to the special nature of the times just ahead I've worked up a new 'graphic modeling' approach that avoids the heavy-duty math and is quite intuitive.  Hopefully, you'll enjoy the approach but as we get into it, you'll discover, as I did while doing the research, that the results give a nearly dire outlook for 2009.  Not unsurvivable, at least for most, but at the same time it's clear in this modeling exercise that the Depression of the 1930's could look like a 'walk in the park' compared to what's coming.

 

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What is better than a Christmas  New Years Card?

Why, sending an email to everyone in your 'contact' file and tell them about  www.urbansurvival.com of course!

 

"Live on $10,000" Updated

What?  You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"?  Suit yourself.  We're all going to live it shortly, anyway.  I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped.  But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:

 

 

 

Yep - still possible.  I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them.  The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings...  Click here for the page with more details on it.

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 Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

 

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Friday December 26, 2008

How Far Is Down? Save the Retailers!

Depends where you're looking, but the holiday season wasn't very festive according to the spending reports that are coming out on 'the day after.'  To be sure, Elaine and I didn't even exchange gifts here at the ranch on Thursday.  Just a nice, quiet dinner (turkey and the fixin's), a little candle light, bottle of champagne and a couple of good movies... 

 

We had earlier come to the conclusion there wasn't much that we didn't already have two (or three) of.  Besides, the after-Christmas sales between now and my birthday in late February should give up plenty of opportunity to save 10-40% on pretty much anything we need.

 

To be sure, retailer behavior before Christmas was at times tempting.  A couple of weeks back, I looked at a new computer for work - 6GB, 500/GB/Core Duo machine with 19" monitor and for $649 at Office Depot.  But, I went back in Tuesday to pick one up and the price had jumped from a sale price of $649 back up to $889.  No, thanks, I could wait.

 

We've also been considering a new car.  Used Porsche 911 prices are coming down.  But that wouldn't create too many jobs except for parts houses for maintenance items.  So I dropped by the local GM/Pontiac store Tuesday and looked at a new Solstice.  Unfortunately they didn't have the new hardtop version in yet (pictures at the Motor Trend site), so looks like January/February sometime before they arrive.  Elaine didn't want a Corvette ("Can't see over the hood - it's too long, at least my last one was...") and while I can get a 4/5/6-speed, she's insistent on a hardtop.  "Just a lot quieter."  And even though gas prices are presently cheap, there's something in the back of my mind that says "Don't trust Big Oil!!"  Yeah, good point....

 

Maybe in January/February the zero-percent interest programs will stop excluding the really desirable cars.  We'll see.  Another thing I'm waiting for is to see if maybe there will be a tax break for 'buying American' - something that has disappeared as a spending issue to some extent since the foreign carmakers have put up plants in America.

 

On the other hand, my friend the Bond Dude pointed out that over at The Tax Foundation's web site, you'll might be able to find the state-by-state breakdown of taxes paid compared to federal spending received on a state-by-state basis.  "California wouldn't even have a budget issue if they got anything near their federal tax dollars back," he noted.  "But did you notice how a lot of states, and states that had senators against the auto bailout were the ones which got up to twice as much money from the Federal government as was paid in taxes?"  Ouch.  I hate it when he brings up the obvious.  The most recent version of the report I could find was 2006 (I reckon these things take time to collate) but even so, I can see where he'd conclude that with California getting only 79¢ on each dollar of  Federal taxes paid, same as New York, that these states would not be in budget hacking mode if they could do as well as New Mexico where there's $2 of federal spending for each dollar of federal tax paid.

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That may seem like it's getting off into the weeds of finance, but there are some large-scale, long term trends about that constitute the river we're all going down and it's one that doesn't get much attention. 

 

But back into the morning's headlines, the point is that whether you want to pay the problem of a sick Christmas for retailers at the feet of the feds or the greed in the real estate bubble burst makes little difference if you just look at the bottom lines.

 

"Fresh survey shows gloomy U.S. retail sales: report" headlines a MarketWatch piece that they goes into how MasterCard figures the season down 5.5% compared with comparables.

 

As for what was dropping, a Bloomberg story says it was luxury items down substantially.

 

Why, even online sales were down 2.3% says a CNNMoney report.

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So how do we fix the problem?  Can we wave a magic wand and stop foreclosures?  Heck no!  Not when the bankster bailouts are soaking up all the money.

 

The National Retail Federation has an idea, though.  How about a series of four tax holidays per year, about one per quarter so that people can 'save the sales tax'?

 

I don't know about you, but that would make buying some of the big-ticket items (cars, major appliances and such) a 'no-brainer'.  The savings (at 6.5% sales tax) on a $30,000 car would be a couple of thousand bucks roughly.  Yeah, makes it a no-brainer.  But, of course, t'ain't gonna happen in time to get us off-track from the pending National Layoff Festival.  That one, unfortunately is already baked in the cake.

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While it's pretty easy to blow off reports of 100,000 people being laid off in India's gems & jewelry sector, because that's 'overseas'.  But, it's quiet another when we hear rumors that Boeing may have a sizeable layoff early in the new year (10%) and that Microsoft could lay off 10% of its 91,000 employees.

 

Couple that with layoffs that will come in the auto industry despite the miniscule bailout plan (at least compared with the banker-sized bailouts) and the reasonable expectation is that housing prices will continue to fall and families continue to be pressed by falling incomes on the one hand and soaring expenses for 'necessities' on the other.  Just this week I was reading now housing prices had taken their worst one-month fall in 20-years.

 

The difference between past recessions and what shapes up as the Second  Depression should become visible around mid to late February.  It's around then, say our linguistic friends, that the global/circular nature of the collapse of the paradigm will become obvious and will become 'bespoke' in MSM.  But, until the MainStreamMedia figure out that 'same-old' solutions aren't going to work, we'll just have to suffer through the auguring in process as the collapse becomes viral and self-reinforcing.

 

So whether you're on your way to work today, or just out for a little good old-fashioned sport shopping on the 'day after', make it a point to count the For Sale signs on your normal travel route.  I've always found that the number of signs is a good indicator of how America is doing.  When you see a big uptick in the number of homes for sales and a corresponding decline in things like the Help Wanted sections of local papers, start battening down for worse times ahead.

 

Best I can reckon, that's what's next.  If you're not out of paper assets already, safety of principal in your retirement account seems likely to become the whole ballgame for the coming year.  Besides a Treasury Direct account, what companies do you know of that has  near certainty of returns?

 

So things will continue pinball-like fashion through the whole of the economy globally, not just here in the USA.  Japan factory output has just reported the biggest fall on record. 

 

Quick! Look surprised.

 

GM's Christmas Present

GMAC LLC and IB Finance Holding Company LLC has been granted bank holding company status by the Fed. Fine print in part:

"GMAC has also requested the Board’s approval pursuant to sections 4(c)(8) and 4(j) of the BHC Act4 to retain its nonbanking subsidiaries that engage in certain activities that are permissible for bank holding companies under the Board’s Regulation Y, including certain credit extension, loan servicing, leasing, and related activities.5  GMAC has also provided notice to retain its foreign subsidiaries under section 4(c)(13) of the BHC Act.6 "

Wham: Approved.  OK, boys, line for bailout dough is right over there...

 

Fed Info: It's "Trade Secrets"

Good coverage of the 'hide the sausage' game being played by the Fed with the major news organizations that are trying to get disclosure under Freedom of Information Act rules.  No, the Fed doesn't have to comply as they are not a part of the federal government.  Besides, now they are hiding behind the concept that the information is a 'trade secrets' - oh, this is so rich...don'tcha just love it?

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I wonder if the Fed's PR folks have figured out that banker arrogance is why things like discussion of the "Federal Reserve Abolition Act" seem to crop up when banksters are busily having their way with the public purse?  No?  I didn't think so...

 

Historical Markers

Four years ago today the Banda Aceh quake down thousands.

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Jazz great Eartha Kitt has passed.

 

Weather Matters

Washington State has a statewide weather emergency going after record (or near record) snowfall over the past week.  Seattle is not using salt on its roads because it's not good for the environment (some is potassium-based, not sodium-based, BTW).

 

Christmas weather, always a gamble to some extent, saw the Midwest being a big loser this year.

 

"What Gives?"  Department

Noticed today that "Washington asks Israel to clarify first sale of spy drones to Russia."  Hmmm....

 

India to React?

Pakistan has reportedly canceled military leaves, which has me wondering if India isn't about to respond militarily to the Mumbai terrorist attack.

 

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Coping: That "New Industry"

The arising 'anti-terror' industry, of course, deserves a lot of attention as an area where returns have been most excellent since 9/11.  Now, with the latest move of troops into Afghanistan (for reasons fuzzy to me except it has something to do with oil and drug money) it'll be more important than ever to watch.

 

So, when headlines cross that "Homeland Security forecasts 5-year terror threats" I study them closely to see which category leaders in the 'new industry' are lining up to get how much dough.  Not that I would invest in them. 

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The global 'terror' situation is no different than local street crime, except for size.  Just as a general rule of thumb, you don't see many $85,000/year family income spouses out pulling holdups and robberies, do you?  Hell no.  It's income disparity that leads to street crime.  Daddy Warbucks going for a hike in the wrong part of town meets local crack head with a .22.  No assault gun needed, contrary to the do-gooder/groupthink/MSM mantras. 

 

"Hand over the wallet!" follows sure as day follows night.  A .22, kitchen knife, it all works about the same and I can't think of a single back alley hold-up I've ever read about pulled off with an assault rifle; maybe I just not well read, though.

 

International crime is a huge business.  Why, it keeps Homeland Security, Metropole, the Mossad, and US alphabet agencies plus enough police agencies and suppliers to employ millions of people employed.  

 

Why, spending money to level income-disparities, global opportunity disparities and a few bucks in the direction of emotional education so people won't be so inclined to bury their feelings in illegal drugs, why that'd be crazy, right?

 

Why, if people had a little food, a little sense on birth control, and a little more evenly distributed resources, those 'terrorist' movements wouldn't have such fertile soil from which to grow.

 

I hope you saw, and read the story that the "Former British Foreign Secretary: Al Qaeda is not read group, just a U.S. Propaganda Campaign"?

 

Bu, that's how the world works, I suppose.  Drugs, money, power and above all disparity - the root of power. 

 

Make it impossible for 'common folks' to opt out so everyone in the world has to play the crooked game and you'll quite naturally see a rise in the 'global revolution' context that we're seeing in linguistics now.  People-watching, spending-addicted drama addicts can only be financially hose-whipped for the benefit of the PTB just so long before they 'get it'.

 

Don't need no five-year terror threat report from Homeland Security.  A mirror will do just fine.

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Parallel thoughts:  "Pope decries selfishness in economic crisis" says one headline while another offers "'If people look only to their own interests, our world will certainly fall apart.'

 

Sorry, but you might pass on to His Holiness - that ship's done sailed...

 

There Be Pirates

Speaking of which: The fact that "China's Navy to join pirate patrols" of Somalia is disconcerting.  The Jamaica Gleaner headlines it as "Pirates, poverty mark failure of American policy".

 

Meantime, the new US military command in Africa is not getting involved... so the new Barbary Coast seems destined to eat up newsprint for much of 2009...

 

Name Game

I love it:  "Kosovo names street after US president Bush."  Me?  I think his dad did better with the airport naming in Houston...but who knows what else will follow.

 

GPS Retort

Seems not everyone thinks like me on the consumer madness over GPS:

"Dude, You are soooo full of yourself on the GPS thing. I lOVE my car GPS. It gives my freedom from maps on trips. It is not that I can't do it, it is why should I have to do it.

When we went to France, our friends from Holland picked us up for a 2 week adventure in the french country side. We had 4 places to stay in various parts of the south, Once we got out of paris, our friend (a truck driver) programmed his TomTom navigator to avoid major roads. We saw the most wonderful scenery. It took us down farm roads, left here, right there. The amount of effort to get that route would have been over whelming. Someone would have to have kept their nose in the map constantly and miss out on the great adventure. One day day we left "Tom" in the window of the car and it totally overheated, we were so depressed because it meant that we would have to drive on only main roads. We decided to go out of the way to a large city to buy a new one. But after holding "Tom" in front of the airconditioner for a half hour, it arose from the dead. We didn't take "Tom" for granted before that and we sure didn't afterwards.

Enjoy your main road (mainstream) map trips!"

Wonder if I gave more than the reader had any dough left over after the trip to send to his local food bank...Oh well, his money, not mine.

 

Reader Quips

Folks wanna know department:

"Why the flock is Madoff not in jail getting his Chrismas bonus from Bubba?

I WANT TO KNOW!"

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"German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who grew up in Communist East Germany, was quoted in Focus magazine telling her Cabinet the following joke: "What's the difference between Communism and Capitalism? Answer: The Communists nationalised all the companies first -- and then ruined them."

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"George, The "working family's czar" is an interesting phrase as it does describe the direction we are heading, but much more important is the irony of Biden being any sort of advocate for the middle class. As a member of the CFR and having much responsibility for NAFTA type Middle- class assault treaties as well as major responsibility for the Bankruptcy Middle-class assault bill he is no better than a fox in a hen house. This is right out of the NeoCON playbook. WTF? Gimme a break!"

Well, of course!  There's only one party in America - the one we weren't invited to!

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Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

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Ham Radio Question

Say, I spent a fair amount of time Thursday trying to get my Tigertronics SignaLink to pull down the PTT line on either my Icom 746 or the Icom 735 - tried two different computers - using Ham Radio Deluxe.  Any clues?  Using a factory Tigertronic Icom cable, too...  Won't read frequency of the CI-V line either...

 

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Wednesday December 24, 2008

Client Confidential: Dear Santa

I hope you don't mind my busting our Nondisclosure Agreement, but I think it'd be OK to disclose that you're one of my marketing consultancy clients.  Besides, by revealing one of my clients, it might help drum up a little biz for me in '09, who knows?

 

I figure some of our correspondence is likely to hit the 'net anyway, since it's almost certainly popped up at Alice Springs and Menwith Hill.   How many times do I have to remind you that putting carefully wrapped packages on anything that flies is highly suspect these days. 

 

And doubly so because I've told you to at least start the paperwork to get the sleigh designated a 'light sport aircraft' by the FAA.  Get one of the elves to phony up a sign-off on the airframe and don't let on that the power plants run on hay at this time of year, or they'll lock you up for sure.  Ever get your biennial flight review done? No?  I didn't think so...

 

Another point:  did you get the mode c transponder fixed?   Again, if you want to clean up your marketing program and restore it to its former greatness, you've got to move with the times. 

 

OK, OK, some credit where due.  Taking up positions in Limewire and Frostwire so people can get a little music free was interesting, strategically, especially with the cross-branding potential of Frostwire.  Cutie, chubby. Real Cute.

 

But, again, I warn you that when the recording industry comes after you, I won't be going on-camera on your behalf.  I hear there are a bunch of has-been GOP PR-types who will be looking; maybe we should pick up a couple as 'disposable assets' which we can strategically disavow after we put 'em out front next time we run into some of that Anti-Santa crap like we did with the reindeer a couple of years back over your using the whip.  Remember that one?  Geez what a mess.

 

By the way, I think we got past that one OK, although there are still a number of emails from the HR-types who insist that yelling  the "On Dancer, On Prancer, On Donner..." stuff constitutes an abusive workplace and talking down to employees.  Tone it down.

 

By the way, lest I forget: Last year's reports of people hearing "On Prancer..." over the Castro district in San Francisco, well that was inexcusable.  So was yelling "On Donner, On Blitzer, On Drugs..." overs the Haight Ashbury.  Gotta keep it serious.  And I really didn't like how you yelled "Hoes, Hoes, Hoes..." over North Beach, either.    What were you thinking? Come on! 

 

You're gonna get the operation banned in California if you pull that kinda crap again this year.  Nothing is less predictable than Kalifornia politics, and you know it. God save us all from the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, too.

 

Might keep an eye out for trouble-maker elves in the loading department.  Talk is they might unionize.

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As we discussed,  I asked Cliff and Igor to work up a new weight & balance program for the sleigh this year, but Cliff said he'd only do that kind of project under a GPL and even then he's insisting on a second screen at install for an enhanced disclaimer of liability.  He had nothing to do with Continentals w&b s/w by the way. 

 

You've got to either convert the sleigh to Linux, or at least let him write something in Win-98 using direct screen calls because we're still sketchy about whether Vista-64 bit is ready for prime time; mission critical and all that.  Besides, the reindeer HUD's are on on XP-SP-3 as of last week.  Can you spell  cross-platform c-o-n--s-i-s-t-e-n-c-y?

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I got your email about what to get for the out-going and incoming presidents.  Boy, do I have issues with that one.  I thinking for Bush something like a tractor, couple of hundred miles of barbed wire, a Husqvarna Ranch 455 chainsaw like mine, and for a stocking stuffer a Rosetta Stone Spanish course for his El Rancho II down in Paraguay might be a good package.  We could do the Spanish courses for the Secret Service detachment as a stocking stuffers that will actually save the taxpayers a little money, too.  What do you think?

 

About the best things I can think of for Obama?  A case or two of Maalox as the economy craters this spring.  Maybe some fire extinguishers for when the urban troubles start next summer due to the projected 10% unemployment rates.  But, we have to be careful that our 'gifting' doesn't give away the accuracy of the rickety time machine predictions, eh?  We just want to let parts of that to be let out, least for now.

 

You saw O's lawyers 'cleared him' of any wrong-doing in the Blagojevich deal up in Crook County?  Gee, golly, imagine that, huh?  Lawyers clearing a client.  Who would have thought?

 

Maybe we could get him someone like Robin Meade for White House press secretary?  You know, get him a little more ratings oriented than the outgoing gang.  Maybe you could arrange Rahm Emanuel for a weekend anchor spot on Fox? 

 

Or, how about a CFR family membership pack, just in case there's anyone left in Washington with any clout who's not already a member?

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By the way, be really careful when you talk to Cliff and Igor especially if you ask 'em about next summer.  He's all freaked out about that new moving coming out in March called "Knowing" and starring Nicolas Cage. Says something about how the predictive linguistics/time scanning project might go mainstream/viral in the March/April timeframe when someone figures out how close the parallel is - except we don't dig up - we dig out on the net.  But still, he's weirded out about it. 

 

You see the page of numbers the kid held up in the trailer?  Just like his data in raw form, except it's not in hex and keyed to the lexicon.  Still, closer than we expected at this stage of the project so I may not have much time to work on off-season projects over the summer of 09 if the bot project goes viral.  Could be close.

 

One other note from Cliff - he is beating himself up for getting the 'quakes' stuff wrong.  It was a simple misread linking the terra entity isolation issues of the Pacific Northwest with the quakes which did the damage a week or so back in Indonesia & Chile.  Not causative, just temporally coincident.  Oh well, he's working on the lexicon and maybe about August, if the 'net is still functioning, we can give you a heads up on who to stock coal for next Christmas.

 

That's if the project is still in business.  You saw that the Australians have gone completely socialist-groupthink with their filtering of the net and they are now filtering peer-to-peer traffic in their 'trials'?

There goes your Frostwire investment, huh?

 

Rickety time machine can't function without original use/contexts of slang and impolite words because they're key indicators of emotive values that make prediction possible.  The Oz filtering scam will jumble/.replace politically incorrect words with substitutes which will vastly complicate if not outright kill the predictive linguistics project. Oh well, WTF.

---

I was saddened to read about the Madoff investor who (apparently) committed suicide.

 

I've been doing some forward planning on what might be good 'stuffers' for next year's run.  I thought Your Money or Your Life: 9 Steps to Transforming Your Relationship with Money and Achieving Financial Independence: Revised and Updated for the 21st Century by Robins, Dominguez, and Tilford would be a dandy.  Folks get so dysfunctional over paper, it's a disease.

---

Say speaking of things to lighten up on next year:  Let's back down on GPS units, OK?  Most people I know never get lost mainly because they seldom go anyplace really new.  And, if you're going someplace new there's this invention called 'street signs' that seem to do about the same thing.  Maps, too - and no subscription.  This GPS stuff is a product that's classic case of too much product/consumer saturation.

 

You saw where Tiger Direct is selling refurbs now for under $80? And that's with text to speech.

 

People dumb enough not to know where they are probably shouldn't be driving, anyways.

---

Not much going on in the markets today...but no real surprises here, but let me start with durable goods:

"New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $1.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $186.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decrease and followed an 8.4 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.9 percent.

Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, down four consecutive months, decreased $5.3 billion or 2.6 percent to $195.9 billion. This followed a 3.4 percent October decrease.

Unfilled Orders Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down two consecutive months, decreased $5.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $815.6 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent October decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in November, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $342.9 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.4 percent October increase.

Capital Goods Industries

Nondefense

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in November decreased $0.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $63.0 billion.

Defense

Defense new orders for capital goods in November increased $0.6 billion or 7.8 percent to $8.4 billion.

This one is really good for us, Santa.  We oughta be able to pick up production for Christmas '09 at dirt cheap prices because people are becoming desperate for work.  So cool, huh?

We're not going to have too much pricing power though, because personal incomes are crashing all over the place:

"Personal income decreased $20.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $11.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $56.1 billion, or 0.6 percent. In October, personal income increased $11.3 billion, or 0.1 percent, DPI increased $16.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE decreased $102.6 billion, or 1.0 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income increased 1.0 percent in November, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in October. Real PCE increased 0.6 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.5 percent. The price index for PCE decreased 1.1 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.5 percent."

'Course I figure they'll underweight the housing component so as not to show the decline in purchasing power as clearly.

 

As I see it, Santa, we we oughta be emphasizing gardening tools, heritage seeds, and the like more.  After all, not only does it give unemployed folks something to do, but it given them something useful at the end of the day.

 

Yeah, I remember your edict "Gifts should be immediately useable 'cuz that's what folks want...' but I continue to respectfully disagree.  I think a growing number of people are figuring out with their pension plans imploding - and many more to follow in 2009 - that maybe they oughta have a Plan B ready. 

 

Why you pay me for good marketing & management advice, Santa, and then don't follow it is something of a mystery to me.  You got a sugar problem, or something?

---

Hey!  Speaking of sugars, I think we oughta take another look at banning the use of high fructose corn syrup-based candies and such for next year's run.  You saw the Julie Deardoff piece in the Chicago Trib yesterday?  "You asked: Should I avoid high-fructose corn syrup?"

---

You asked about Bill O'Reilly.  Another touchy one.  But I think I've got it...found it at Amazon's site:  Dude, That's Rude!: (Get Some Manners) (Laugh and Learn).  Best of all, it's written for Ages 9-12.  BTW: How come we're not stuffing these for all cell phone users this year, too?

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That gets me to: What do we give as gifts for those threats to America's future?  I mean besides right wing, lock-step group-thinkers and neoconners.  Did you catch the note that "Russia to raise nuclear missile output fourfold"?

 

Remember a couple of years back how we gave all the Russia oligarchs new US-made SUV's and how that got them serious about kicking up their oil production?  I think we need to take a similar track on this one. 

 

Here's my thinking:  If oil stays down too low for too long, Russia will start exporting arms in a big way again and I don't think we want that.  So, how about we get onboard with the Saudis and the Dubians and start pressing oil up a bit?  If Russia can balance its books, they'll be less inclined to sell missiles to Pakistan and Venezuela, right?  We might want to do a conference call on this one with that St. Nick guy out of Turkey.  You two are related, right?

---

Speaking hardware:  Remember that "Ben Bernanke Action Figure" set we came out with last year? 

 

Well, I got an idea for a couple of add-ons for the Hasbro game Monopoly.  Remember it did very well in the first Depression, so why not this one?

 

Here's what I was thinking:  First we need to destroy money's value periodically, so why not put  digital price indicators on all the properties?  That way, they can be jiggered up or down depending on which party is in power...like it?  How about this: A Monopoly credit card/HELOC add-on?  All digital, too.  We'll make a killing on the batteries.

 

OK, then we need to put in some new cards in the drawing piles.  Need to have more contemporary things like "EPA rules you're a pollution source-point, $5.8-million dollar fine..." That kind of thing.  And, how about this one:  A Zimbabwe version of the game with all the zero's shown?  That'd be a collectable for sure, just like that Weimar board you showed me from the Christmas of '24. 

---

You know what else we need?  We need an up to date version of the global political strategy game classic "Balance of Power" - and if we start on it right now, we could maybe get 'what's her name' to beta it at the State Department this spring.  Good one, huh?

---

I think that covers most of your questions and issues in your last email.  A couple of personal observations:

 

We're not doing very well by our men and women in uniform.  Ramping up Afghanistan isn't much of a Christmas present.  We need a lot more leave for the military.  Leave there, there, there, there, there, there, there, and come home.  But, I guess that's not your department, is it?  Yeah, I know, that would mean creating some real, I mean non-defense real jobs in America and that would threaten those jobs in China and that in turn...well, yeah, got the picture.  But still...it'd be nice for the families, wouldn't it?

 

We need to keep working on long-term sustainability issues.  How about a new video game called something like "Catching the last fish"?  Kids born today will likely see the last of fish & chips in their lifetimes, so why not be ahead of the curve for a change?

 

We continue to have a positioning problem relative to the other market-driven holidays.  "Uncle Sam" is still pretty much limited to the fireworks space, but over the past couple of years, leprechauns have made huge market-share increases for St. Patrick's Day.  I think the marketing guys at Bushmills and Guinness may have a strategic alliance with Sherwin-Williams and Macy's.  Just a hunch, but we've got to keep them from getting into our tech vertical where we're vulnerable.  You know all it would take would be a Nokia or Ericson doing a green phone and we could lose big time.

 

That disinfo campaign we started with the bird flu paid off big as we picked up huge market share against Easter Bunny.  People are so frigging scared of anything with birds or eggs in  it, I'm beside myself with glee over our success there.  Why, it's been so successful that Elaine won't even let me raise chickens here at the ranch anymore, LOL.  Good one!

 

We're about even with the witches and goblins at Halloween, but as I noted earlier in my report, I think we can work that HFCS issue around on 'em.  I mean, who's gonna put a Healthy Choices meal in a kid's Halloween sack, right?  We then reposition our Candy Canes as pure cane sugar, right?  I think it'll work.  Those Luciferian marketers just don't understand 'the sweet' space, do they?  Heck, they haven't even figured the positioning confusion between their 'goblins' and Thanksgiving's 'gobbling'.  Bunch of no talents, if you ask me.  Why without all their DC lobbyists and law firms, they'd be toast under our marketing juggernaut.  They're just lucky.

---

I'm not going to stay up and visit with you like we did last year.  If you can remember (and I barely do) we put away half a bottle of El Don and you almost missed the West Coast.

 

So this year, I'll just leave out one lime and your choice of either the El Don or a shot of a very fine  Herradura Seleccion Suprema sent to me by a friend in Mexico.  Just one shot of the good stuff though... it's almost $400 a bottle, OK?  

 

Besides, Anderson County (East) Texas is not where you want to spend December 25th drying out, eh?  And what if an FAA 'white gloves' team catches you?  You know what they do to the commercial guys now....or have you forgetten?

 

Oh, and Elaine is leaving a book for you to drop off for Mrs. Claus: Sexy In Your Sixties.  Something you haven't told us, old boy? Some little ectomorph honey among the elves?  Easier to deal with than a restroom sting operation, I suppose, but discretion, dude.  I'm not the front-man for this operation - just the strategic planner.  Let me say it again: discretion.

 

PS: Two other quickies: Go light on the roof, it's a modular home, OK? And don't make too much noise.  I tend to be a shoot first, ask questions later sleeper.  You were lucky a couple of years back that you were wearing an impact plate in your vest, in Detroit, remember?   I'm just saying, this is Texas, 'K?

 

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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Biden's Telling Remarks

Somewhere off in my family history there must have been a John Birch Society member who planted in me the idea that creeping socialism really is something to be vigilant about. 

 

Oh sure, when the Berlin Wall came down circa 1989 (as a CBC National/Journal year-ender called it: "The year we stopped believing"), many folks were lulled into the notion that the end of the Cold War would somehow bring a 'peace dividend with it'.  Which, in case you haven't noticed, has so far failed to arrive.  Still waiting for that one.

 

Curiously, however, despite the end of the Cold War, the path toward corporate/socialism seems clearer than ever.  Industry after industry has put its hand out, whether it's to make autos, save finance jobs, or just to tack money onto other bailouts for more speedways and arrows, the evidence is increasingly clear that the once mostly U.S.A.  is developing a uniquely poor way of doing 'socialism'.  Ironically, almost as badly as Russia's doing 'democracy'.

 

Yup.  The world's in a fine fix, alright and underlying more economic blathering lately you'll find oft repeated notions that somehow, if we just get the correct balance between public and private ownership, if we can just find the workable balance between government intrusion versus government controlled by 'we the people', everything will work out just fine.

 

While that in itself would be a long shot at best, to make matters laughable, the people we've given the power to arrive at this fine tuning are who?  Lawyers, lobbyists, and competing special interest groups.  Logically, I can't think of a worse way to come to a reasonable outcome than to make it a money-driven, power & greed driven processes.  "Free speech"  stops being free as soon as it hits a critical mass/size.  And the distinction that 'rights' are inalienable and begin with the people granting limited authority to government for limited purposes was headed out of town last time I looked.

 

Secure borders, limited coordination between free States, and to protect us from foreign entanglements should they come calling; not should we go looking for them. That was the starting point.

 

I can't count the number of readers who have written in suggesting that we all get bumper stickers printed up saying "I want my America back"; the one that has been leased out to special interests.

 

It was with that percolating in the back of my mind (as the coffee was also percolating about the same time) that Joe Biden's remarks about becoming a "working family's czar" really hit home:

 

What struck me was that not only is socialism (robbing from the poor to pay for the sins of the rich down on Wall Street) running rampant these days, but now when I think through the linguistics of what's coming from the mouths of folks in Washington, I'm hearing the word "czar" more and more often.

 

Czar...hmmm... You know..."czar" as in former heads of state in Russia.

 

Not that it's just Biden talking about his personal czarist leanings. Wrap it in 'family' enough and maybe someone will salute.   Nossir, we see it coming from the once free market republicorps, too.  I'm afraid you may have to go back to Ike's says to find  nearly 'clean hands', unsoiled by lobby money and special interest influence, if even then. But back on point....

 

A recent example is all the talk about a "car czar" for the failing Big Three. Somewhere north of 13-thosuand Google news items reference that one today.

 

A little more research finds that czar references accompanied appointments of our "anti-narcotic czar" and a "Homeland Security czar".  Even places like India are picking up on the use of 'czar' with references to an up and coming 'telecom czar' and calls for a new Obama 'climate czar'.

---

Powerful things, words.  Powerful as in czars.

 

They come creeping into our language with little thought, frequently not challenged at all because one word means nearly the same as another, do they not?

 

No, absolutely not! 

 

Over the past six months, or so, I've pointed out how when talk of 'bailing out banks' began, the term "rescue' was associated with spending public money to "Save the banksters" only 18% of the time.

 

An astute observer could click over to Google's news search engine this morning and notice that while the word 'bailout' pops up 140,477 returns, the word 'rescue' pops up in 138,551 stories.  We've gone through a huge shift in word-use because at some level, network execs get telephone calls from 'upstairs' that suggest that they 'find some better word' than 'bailout' because (ostensibly) that's too negative. 

 

As a result, we get concepts like "rescue" foisted on us at a preconscious level: almost no one questions the new word-use.  Instead, they focus on the subject, not how it's being framed.

 

Yet framing is everything down at the preconscious/population control levels.

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That's why I would like to publicly thank Joe Biden for taking up the mantle of "working family czar'.  He doesn't have to do much of anything else; since the concept (merging of the US and Russia) is now becoming more clear than ever. Czaring, indeed.

 

Thanks to Biden's remarks, I'm also now able to look a little more clearly at stories crossing the wires.

 

Like this headline:  "Afghanistan could get 30,000 more U.S. troops".

 

Thanks to noticing the word 'czar' showing up so much, I now find myself asking "Who is really behind the push to 'win' in Afghanistan?  Are they after the large opium output or 'just' the pipeline right of ways? Or, is it 'the defense industry' which would be facing layoffs should permanent war for permanent peace ever fail?

---

Thanks to Biden, when a word like 'czar' bounces around MSM, I wonder anew who is really calling the shots; who is it would have benefited had Russia won in Afghanistan and who is it now that is in a position to benefit?  Poppies?  Pipelines?  I'm just not clear on this....

 

Answer that one and you'll get to the source of those 'word-use' calls to corpmedia; those are the czars we call around here the PowersThatBe.

 

Officially Recession?

Economists argue endlessly (and pointlessly, I'd add) about how long the economy has to be in the crapper before someone fesses up to the idea it's a 'recession.' 

 

Understand that it's just going to fuel that debate, here's the latest Gross Domestic Product report out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis...

"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.8 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the preliminary estimates issued last month. In the preliminary estimates, the decrease in real GDP was also 0.5 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The decrease in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and equipment and software that were partly offset by positive contributions from federal government spending, private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Most of the major components contributed to the downturn in real GDP growth in the third quarter. The largest contributors were a sharp downturn in PCE, a deceleration in exports, a smaller decrease in imports, a deceleration in nonresidential structures, a larger decrease in equipment and software, and a deceleration in state and local government spending. Notable offsets were an upturn in inventory investment and an acceleration in federal government spending. "

Shorter version:  Lump of coal.

 

Tomorrow, Durable Goods and Personal Income.  Yeah - personal income on Christmas Eve's Day, no less.  Universe has such a wry sense of things, huh?

 

Say, did I mention the mass layoffs for November yet?

 

 

Forgiving Hillary

Some headlines just make me laugh.  Like this one: "Clinton writes off $13.2 million loan to campaign."

 

So, does this mean she's written herself off?  LOL...

 

Adventures in Aristocracy

Of course, it would be in appropriate of me to write something like "There you have it!  Another example of how the 'aristocrats of America in action..."  Nope, wouldn't be right at all.  Just way too cynical for this time of year, yeah?

 

Instead I'll write something like "Go read the NY Times article about how Carolynn "Kennedy declines to make financial disclosure."  Then draw your own conclusions.

 

(There, all PC-like)

 

Broke-ifornia

Arnold the Governator has a lump of coal this year as the once Golden State's gold is pretty much gone to the point where the state could 'go automaker' in 2-months.

 

Global Whating?

"Beijing's coldest December in 57 years" says one headline.  "Will Canada see its first (all) white Christmas since 1971?"

---

But wait!  How does all this square with the recent headline that "2008 10th warmest on record"?  And that was before we got this blast of cold globally including not just North America and much of China, but also now Europe bracing for a cold wave.

 

We'll just sit back and see how many honest MSM assignment desks do a follow-up story in January about the fall from 10th warmest to however far down the year drops in the records once we get through these next few weeks... 

 

Am I the only one who remembers the 11-year sun spot cycle and output from the sun may have something to do with all the mass marketing of the carbon credit schemering?

 

"Self sufficiency" begins with self....

 

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Coping:  The Army in the Wings

Congrats to John Crudele of the NY Post today for getting the story "US Army ready if the Downturn Gets Out of Hand" into this morning's editions.

 

What's not in the Crudele story is the link which I told you about earlier, to the underlying report itself.  Only about 35 pages if you skip the end notes.

---

What's not in the report, and what Crudele probably doesn't have column inches to explore,  is something that I'd call "military isolationism."  Only takes a few moments to pass on the concept.  It goes like this:

 

A friend of mine (who has occasion to run in high up military circles) hints to me that many of his colleagues in the US military seem to think the dot-mils won't have a major energy problem until somewhere out in the 2040-2050 timeframe.  Yet, when my friend did a little probing, it seems there's an underlying recognition that the broader society might not be so fortunate.  So much so that even given a long-lasting economic slowdown/Depression, the civilian world would becomes seriously energy constrained by 2020-2025 or so.

 

Hold that thought and let's go back to the report.  What I find key is not so much the specifics of what it says.  Rather, it' feels like the beginning of doctrine development that ignores a central point of bifurcation.

 

Specifically, a military with 'resource to 2050' operating on behalf of a civilian population with constrained resources for 20-25 years sounds (pardon this) a bit elitist at its core.  I may be an historic dunderhead, but when one portion of the population has resources, while a larger population doesn't have resources, seems to me you're just setting yourself up for violent conflict.

 

So when I read Nathan Freier's report and come across a paragraph like this one (taken wholly out of context of the report itself, you understand) I wonder if military elitism, that I believe based on first-hand reports to exist, doesn't in and of itself precipitate violent domestic social conflict?

"Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security. Deliberate employment of weapons of mass destruction or other catastrophic capabilities, unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters are all paths to disruptive domestic shock."  (Freier, P. 32)

Or, put more simply, Mao Tse Dung's doctrine that the "...people are like a sea and the guerilla (army) must swim amongst them..." collides conceptually with the super-military necessary to deal with super-threats envisioned in future years.  Seems having it both ways is not very likely, nor, no matter how much 'intelligence' spending occurs, can all threats be foreseen. An Iraqi shoe-thrower knows that one.

 

The matter given scant attention is whether a military can rule a resource constrained world without increasing use of violence to enforce its will (starting since 2000 in case you're not following the lead in here in the headlines), a sort of military feudalism exacting ever higher tribute or whether the military component does best arising spontaneously from and of the people.  The path of power versus the path of unity.

 

So it is that in a paradoxical way, the Founders understood that in preserving the well-armed spontaneous militia capability, the power could remain with we the people.

 

It's a heavy thought to ponder and decidedly un-Christmasy.

 

But as you work on developing the bogslife (beyond organizational/governmental structures) mindset, which in many ways is how an arriving alien might view ant farm Earth, such fundamental distinctions become important because the seeds of tomorrow's conflicts were planted in our past and the harvests will be bitter or sweet, depending on how we tend the garden today.

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Send snip and save thoughts to george@ure.net

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Monday December 22, 2008

Update

The OTHER Missing Weather Story

After my rant about East Coast assignment editors missing big/huge weather stories a friend of my called from Connecticut to tell me that there are still over a quarter-million folks without power (and they have been for longer than most hurricane impacted people this year) in his area, west into the Berkshires and north from there.  Another reader says pretty much the same thing:

Hi George, I think you had too much coffee this morning. In Ct.we had 30" of snow this weekend. Plow truck died and my back still is causing me some pain. This in normal and it is winter, so if Washing state got 15"you just deal. Merry Christmas,

No slight intended toward the thousands without power (not that they'd know if the net is down, eh? So don't tell 'em, pleeze...)  The PNW has gotten over 30" in places just east of Seattle, too.  (Issaquah plateau). Very unusual.

 

But my point was more to assignment editors ferreting out the really angles and not just the 'easy feeds' from the big affils.  The real stories are people about to lose homes to weather/plumbing/cold problems in the Northeast or the northeast and in the PNW.  And while this goes on, we watch footage of tailgate parties?  OMFG infotainment has dumbed us all...

 

Had light sleet start up here at the ranch today.  Not even worth mentioning...kinda like tailgate parties!

 

NOT Dreaming of a....

Folks up in the Pacific Northwest are getting just plain sick of winter weather.  A glance at the local Teevee stations shows more or less non-stop snow coverage over the weekend and it's apparently going to continue.

 

Thanks to East Coast media-centricity, the MSM (MainStreamMedia) hasn't figured out that there's a whole country located out in the wild, wild west; west of about Pennsylvania.  Which is why headlines like "Dangerous Cold Sweeps into the East" get a lot of play on the East Coast. Gag me.  Always snows in the Northeast.  Northwest? No,  uh uh.

 

But here's a news flash for the Eastern flatlanders:  What folks here in East Texas call a 'mountain' wouldn't even be deserving of a name in Seattle as a hill.  In fact, click here to see what traffic just south of downtown Seattle looks like going along the side of Beacon Hill.  See that 'hill' the freeway is running along?

 

That hill has a HAAT that dwarfs the so-called 'mountains' we live amongst here in the outback.  You do remember from our VHF/UHF discussions that HAAT is height above average terrain, right?  Whatever...where was I?  Oh yeah...

 

Flatlanders seem to think that a 'weather emergency' in the Pacific Northwest is somehow less of a Big Deal that when the East gets a few inches of precip.  But click any of the Washington State Department of Transportation's Seattle-area freeway cameras and pay particular attention to the 'hills' that are evident all over the place.  The Spokane Street camera was pointed at Beacon Hill this morning when I checked...about a mile past Holgate southbound.

 

I won't pick on Beacon Hill alone (although I grew up on the side of that hill near the top of the hill and about between those two cameras.  Nope.  There's enough snow in Seattle that my daughter Allison called last night (from Capitol Hill) to complain about the snow boarders and to wonder if anyone else besides her would be slogging through close to 20-inches of snow to get her office open today.

 

Even more fun that Capitol Hill?  Wonder how the skiing is on the counterbalance?  If you don't know about the counterbalance - and have never ridden a bike down it jumping into the air about mid-hill, you have missed one of life's best (and OK, maybe dumbest) adventures.  Queen Anne Hill probably rises 300-feet or more over 8-9 blocks.  If you're a movie connoisseur it's like Seattle's analog to the San Francisco hills in the movie Bullitt.  That's about what Queen Anne Hill is like, that kind of terrain.

 

One of the 'silent sports' of living in Seattle when I was a kid was watching out-of-towners (flatlander types) trying to start their cars on a good 30-40% grade. Handling a clutch without using a parking brake 'helper' in Seattle, San Francisco, or some of Portland's better hills, is finishing school for manual-shifter types.   Damn shame automatic transmissions came along.  Took a fair bit of sport out of watching tourists.

---

A little further south, down in Thurston County, the chief time monk's dogs (which look a little wild-eyed) were looking like this before the latest pile-on of snow started Sunday.  Cliff reported 16" of snow on his deck and expected anywhere from 22-24" by this morning.

---

I've driven in all kinds of snow:  Anchorage in the middle of winter (not bad), over Donner Pass in a blizzard (anything to get to ski slopes), Spokane, and even a few East Coast towns.  But best I can recall, there is nothing like a good ice-glazed hill in the Pacific Northwest with ice under an eighth-inch of barely melted water to separate those that brag from those who can really handle snow & ice driving.  Flatlands?  Puhleese.

---

Although Portland is about 150-miles south, it too is in a heap-o-troubles from the snow, as a reader writes:

"I live near Portland, Oregon. We have been snowed in for a week now. More and more snow keeps coming with no end in sight. It wasn’t an earthquake it’s a snow-quake.

This weather is really hard on the people here. We seldom get this much snow and don’t have the equipment needed to dig out. Also with our snow we get lots and lots of ice. The City of Portland is almost shut down. There is a new batch of snow coming on Wednesday. "

And to the north of Seattle, much the same out of the lower Mainland of British Colombia where this "Huge snow dump hits south coast..." says the Vancouver Sun.  By the way, that 45 cm of snow with 15 (or more) this weekend would be equivalent to about 24-26-inches.  Way out of 'normal' for Nanaimo (one of my favorite sailing destinations back in the day - summers, of course).

---

So pardon me, but when I see the big deal that folks in the 'east' are making about snowfalls of 4-7 inches, I think to myself "Aha!  There really is nothing west of Chicago for most national MSM assignment editors, is there?"

---

If there's a silver lining to the inclement weather it is this:  The snow and ice will give the PowersThatBe a good chance to blame "an unusual wintery blast is clamed for slow retail sales before Christmas this year'.  Hell, I can almost see the headline.

 

But, I suppose it beats the truth:  We're entering a Second Depression and winter sucks. Or, is this the start of "The Day After Tomorrow"?  Whatever you call it, the Pacific Northwest is getting its butt kicked, powdered, and iced...

 

Global Banker Coup - ON Schedule

I realize that you're probably bright enough to figure out what's really going on with the global financial mess, right?  The PowersThatBe have poured enough gasoline (easy credit, lack of oversight) onto the financial markets, that they are imploding, going down in flames.  And, in order to "Save us all" from economic destruction, the governors/corporate powers (I call 'em corpgov) are busily consolidating not only banks under their jurisdiction/control, but also key major industries.  Like autos, just fer instance.

 

So it comes as no surprise that the "Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish advance on $7.7 Billion Bailout."  Can't have those Irish banks staying independent, now, can we?  Not when we need to have global banking before global government, Capiche?

 

Heading for the Exits

Meanwhile, since I do marketing consulting (among other things) I am always interested when a BIG marketing problem crops up in the news.  Here's an example of one that has been keeping me up nights trying to come up with a solution:  "Money market funds reel as yields near zero..."

 

Although I've beat myself up over this for a while, it smacks of the  "Same kind of problem that began to appear early in the first Depression," I remind myself.  "And they didn't come up with any good answers either, although it was a slightly different plot that time around..."

 

Different only in the spin, not on the eventual planned outcome of beggar the working class and steal our retirement due.

 

Say, you don't think that's why they call such periods of history "Depressions" do you?

 

Pakistan's Glowing Future?

Depends on how you read this, but there's been more "Sabre-rattling by India as military chiefs brief PM".

 

And to make matters even more 'edgy' there are reports today on five imminent terror threats.  Say, nothing like doing their work for 'em, huh?

 

Rewriting History Department

If you wanted to pick just one person who encapsulates the very best of America's commitment to Freedom and Patriotism, I think I'd go with General George S. Patton.  If you haven't seen the movie "Patton" - it's a must-watch.

 

But now this morning comes a report that is almost like revealing the 'dark side' of the PowersThatBe, which in case you didn't get it, were also the PowersThatWere back during World War II and arguably before that, too.

 

"General George S. Patton was assassinated to silence his criticism of allied war leaders claims new book.  George S. Patton, America's greatest combat general of the Second World War, was assassinated after the conflict with the connivance of US leaders, according to a new book. "

 

If I read the summary right in the UK Telegraph, seems Patton's march east through Germany was halted by higher ups who apparently had already cut a deal with the Russians in advance of Potsdam.  There you have it (again) the John Birch folks being right, but no one around today willing to acknowledge it, huh?

 

I know, if you're thinking something like "You mean the Cold War was a set-up?"  That'd sure be an interesting way to read it.  Which is while corporate social is the order of the day in Washington, Comrade.

 

Target: Patton: The Plot to Assassinate General George S. Patton goes on my reading list...

 

They Get a What?

Straight-shooting headline from "The Hill":  "With economy in shambles, Congress gets a raise."  ---

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As one reader aptly notes in a recent email:  "You ever notice that in almost all the press releases come out of DC lately we're called "consumers" not "citizens"?"  Yeah, bothers me, too...

 

'Oooooohh What a Feeling' Department

Over at Toyota, they're looking at their first operating loss in 71-years.  What a feeling, indeed.

 

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Coping:  Like Fathers, Like Sons

I don't talk about the adventure/misadventures of my son in Seattle very often.  Not that what he does isn't colorful.  Nossir, don't get me wrong on that.  Repelling down the side of a 12-astory hotel (on a bet) and streaking a whole dormitory at the U of W (again on a bet), I figure he's just trying to avoid the old man's boring lifetime of reading, flying, sailing, schooling, software design, college management, scuba diving and so on. 

 

But every once in a while I hear stories about 'the Boy" that have to be passed on because, as someone once told me, "The nut doesn't fall too far from the tree..."

 

Seems he's been doing a fine job of keeping himself focused on health care, which is turning out to be his calling in life and he's been working as an EMT.  And, to bolster his personal finances, he drives a delivery vehicle for a funeral home.  Someone has to pick up bodies when people pass on, and he's got the credentials and know-how to do a fine job.

 

So it seems a week or two back, he had headed southbound on Interstate-5 from Harborview Medical Center.  Traffic was moving slowly and he took the HOV lane.

 

After a few miles, blue lights come on  behind him and it's a Washington State Patrolman who pulls him over.

 

"You know why I'm pulling you over, don't you?" asked the State's finest.

 

"I have no idea," explains the one who didn't fall far from the tree.

 

"You're only one person and you were in the High Occupancy Vehicle lane.  Didn't you see the sign that said '3 or more persons'?"

 

"Well, yes sir, but I do have three persons in the vehicle..."

 

"Where?"

 

And with that, George 2 (Pappy called him the deuce) proceeds to explain what's in the back of the van.

 

"We consider that 'cargo',,,, Mr. Ure, is it?"

 

"Well sir, the State law says 3 persons.  It doesn't specify whether they have to be 'living' or not, does it?"

 

"I'll let you go this time but don't let me catch you doing it again..."
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I couldn't make up the adventures of my son - it'll make a fine book someday...

 

I'll leave it to your discretion who was 'right' on this one, but to me it's a fine example of how my son seems to be picking up his father's sense of appropriate conformity with rules of society including adhering to the letter of the law.   Makes me a proud parent that I've passed on the 'Deny everything, admit nothing, and make counter accusations" gene.

 

Why to Ditch Your Cell Phone

My lawyer/consigliore sent me a note this morning to be sure and point out this story that reveals "Cell phone spying - With this software, anyone can turn your cell into a microphone..."

 

Which is why Elaine and I use ham radio (we assume everything will be heard)  and hard-wired phones.  Oh duh....

 

News Control Follow-up

Yep.  Folks are trying to shut down news flow on the internet, at least that's a follow up to last week's report on "news control" - this from a reader in Greece...

"Dear George

I read every day your news at UrbanSurvival, but something clicked me yesterday. Global 'News Control' Starting?

I tried also this website and got the same result as you did. But as I was checking youtube to find a video, i hit on the same wall as you did. There was a video (which i can't remember the exact link, sorry) that was not viewable for my country (a huge hello from Greece by the way). And I soooooooo do not want you to be right about this at all...."

Yeah, I hate being right so often on the 'big picture' stuff, but that seems to be how it's working out...

 

Last Minute Giving

Here's something for your last minute shopping: "NASA will give away old Shuttles for free"

 

Of course, like most government offers of 'free' there is a little catch to it:  Shipping charges estimated at $42-million. 

 

I'm not sure who's learning from who, here: NASA from those misleading telemarketing deals with their ultra-fine-print shipping and handling charges that are more than the goods cost, or t'other way around...

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You mean the geniuses who contracted for the Shuttles didn't include a recycling clause?????  You want us to believe they found the moon?  Hello?  Anyone there?

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Hey:  If they'll deliver it to my lower 16-acres, I'll set up a parking lot so people can come see it for a dollar a head....I just can't afford the shipping...

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Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

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