- Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major
typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
March 21, 2009
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I'm Not the Only One To
This being Saturday, with a huge to-do list here at the ranch,
my comments will be a bit shorter than weekdays. That
said, Terence Corcoran over at the Financial Post this week
asked a very difficult question in a column titled "Is
this the end of America?" Time was that even asking
a question like that would immediately result in being branded
as a loonie, nutjob, or subversive, but if you take a look at
the US Monetary Base chart that accompanies Corcoran's article,
it should become immediately clear to you why I've been a strong
advocate of gold, silver, and developing an independent supply
of food. Corcoran's got a clear-eyed assessment worth
Evidence that America is in the midst of a 'melt-down' is coming
more and more into focus it seems, as the financial headlines
continue to show that 'things ain't as they should be' here
the hoopla in most media about the specifics of this
development, or that, my personal choice is to step back from it
all and look at the longer historical perspective.
explained to our premium content subscribers over at
last weekend, the period we're now in is a natural consequence
of over-production in a huge number of areas. In Scoville
Hamlin's 1930 classic "The Menace of Over Production" the
outline of what was then a developing Depression was traced back
to over production in a broad spectrum of human endeavors
including the bituminous coal industry, oil, textiles,
agriculture, and the radio industry to name just a few from the
around today's economy says that we have experienced a similar
"Menace of Over Production" which precipitated the current hard
times. These include the over production in the auto
industry, over production of Housing, over production of
Financial Products, and over production of software and sure,
let's throw in the over production of computer networks.
Want to throw in over production in the death industry?
Sure, what the hell. How many times we can blow up or
poison the planet can be expanded infinitely, so why not?
happens at the moment of inflection or 'waking point' is
almost like the climb up to the top of a grand rollercoaster.
There's that spot at the very tippy-top where the car almost
stops for what seems like an age, you look to the distant
horizon, look down.....and then the decline begins. And
that first drop was a monster.
tippy-top moment for the economy which we're suffering through
now was the closing days of 1999 when in September of that year
I explained in the short paper
"Death by Dot
Coms: When Barriers to Entry Fail" what would likely follow
-- the collapse of the Internet Bubble. From there,
trillions of shareholder value began to evaporate in early 2000,
the Dow and other indices hit their all-time highs, which have
held to this day, if one is conscious enough to consider the
purchasing-power equivalent of dollars then versus the
inflation-hollowed dollar of 2007 when the Dow hit its
nominal all-time high just over 14,000. But it wasn't
the high on a purchasing power-adjusted basis.
been hotly debated since 2001 whether the events of September
11th were really an act of terrorism, the longer view of history
suggests that 9/11 happened precisely and almost too
conveniently at the correct moment to re-energize America's
economy, if only for a few years. It spawned a whole new
industry (Security/Anti-Terrorism) overnight. It
took vast amounts of resource and flipped it over into
war-making. Solved an employment problem for young people.
It caused some level of inflation and no longer was the country
faced with the difficult choices that would have been involved
in properly consuming the 'peace dividend' should it have
survived. Kiss off balanced budget prospects, again.
Concurrently, an attack of easy money on all front's
whipped up a new buying frenzy in Housing and thanks to what's
been called the "Enron loophole" we saw massive overbuilding of
financial products and a new generation of financial excesses
that hadn't been seen since the late 1920's. Rumors have
even been bandied bout that one reason Bernie Madoff was treated
with such 'kid gloves' was because
there may have been more than just private investors used
in his operations; there's a question whether governments may
have been involved at some level.
Friday's close of the financial markets, things were back to
about evenly debated; whether we were at last in a rally which
'had legs', or whether the market would decline from here.
I called my friend Robin Landry, who manages money for clients
from his office in Shawnee, Oklahoma and asked him what he sees
there are two competing Elliott wave counts to be considered.
Under one count, we get a decline next week and into the
following, but we hold short of the recent lows around Dow 6,626
and then start a major rally from there which will see a major
upward thrust by oil and the precious metals.
The move of oil this week over $50 certainly argues for that
case, as well as the strengthening gold prices. But on the
other hand, oil weakened toward week's end.
alternate count that Landry is watching is that the decline
picks up speed next week and takes out the 6,626 recent Dow low,
and from there were go down to the 5,800 level, or in a worst
case 4,400 on the Dow and then we get the rally which again will
feature oil and metals, but there would be one hell of an entry
point if gold gets down into the upper $30's and gold were to do
a short, nose-bleed inducing drop to the $700's, or even $650.
One of my
projects today will be munching on the latest ALTA report from
because it gives a much better long-range view of what's to
come. I did call Friday to ask my friend and chief time
monk Cliff about whether the two US ships colliding in the
Strait of Hormuz was the temporal (time) marker that means the
Obama administration is heading into its "test of the president"
questions were quickly deflected, and rightly so, because as
time monks, there's very little point in worrying through the
day-to-day problems because the global coastal event, and the
renewed activity along the Pacific Plate threatens to begin a
period of major activity in the HPH modelspace called the 'terra
entity" that doesn't end well. Giving more credibility to
the possible rise of sea level was the increase of estimated
sea-level rise that came out as this week progressed, such that
now, scientists are talking about more than 16-feet being in the
cards globally when the West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS) by
itself could drop into the ocean, and that problem threatens
literally any day:
studies have a "take home message that unless something is
done to curb emissions soon...this would commit us to an
inevitable 5-meter (16.4 foot) sea level rise over the next
several centuries," said Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist
at the University of Victoria in Canada, who wasn't part of
Videos over a year old show were already showing that within
50-years, you ought to be able to sail to Europe by heading
north fro the US West Coast, rather than around the world as the
Northwest Passage thaws out, but at the same time, places like
Boca Raton (elevation 16-feet) should become really good
So no, the
chief time monk was not nearly as concerned about day-to-day
market gyrations as you might be. 300-mile per hour winds
as the climate goes bonkers are maybe a little more worrisome
than even the latest uptick in federal spending. Mass
starvation as the global economic system breaks down is may be a
tad more of an issue than bond yields. And finding
drinkable water within as short as 2-3 years could become more
important than whether you get to claim a loss for this, or
that, on your tax filings.
depends how you want to live your life, I suppose: With a
very long eye toward the future, or a really short-term view on
trading and job-keeping.
of aware humans to sheep is something to observe. There
are still 16-million people in Florida who stand to almost
certainly own tidal property within 100-years, or maybe 50, or
maybe next year. Don't even ask about the millions in
Bangladesh or low-lying parts of India, or where oil will be
refined since refineries would be put out of business by sea
Western high-consumption paradigm is alive and well, ruled
quietly by a group we call the PowersThatBe; those few who pull
the strings of governments and media, who profit from the passes
so they can perpetuate their own power. To them, the
week's economic news is everything. And it likely
will be for another year or two.
comes a Great Leveling as happens at times in history.
Times when the old paradigm shows itself to be unalterably
broken and we evolve into whatever comes next. Oh sure,
the chart in the Corcoran piece suggests it's already happening.
But that's just a money chart. Watch the earthquakes, the
plagues, the rising sea level and work out those longer-term
problems as best you can for yourself and your kids.
Global Diaspora - people getting up and move around by the
millions - that's the kind of thing to watch.
of being alive in 2015, or so, are dropping much faster than you
might think. So I'll spend this weekend worried about my
garden, thanks. Time to be transitioning into Bogslife.
Beyond old governments/systems because as the chief time monk is
fond of saying "chance favors the prepared mind" and I got a lot
of preparing to get done. I expect you do, too.
schedule changes at Genesis Radio Network, looks like our
appearance with Scott Stevens is on hold until April 4th - more
as we get closer.
The Year's Toughest Questions
Inboxes are funny critters. But since I write about economics and a sort of going-along-to-get-along level of personal
preparedness, my inbox seems to attract a tremendous number of
questions. Some of them I can answer, some of them I can't.
In any event, while I don't offer financial advice, I will go so far
as to propose some things you might wish to consider in your
own financial and life-planning. So I thought what I needed to
do this week was pull out the Top-10 questions and discuss them
so you can make your own best call as to what the 'right' course of
action is for you, given that everyone has a different set of
circumstances and we don't live in a one-size-fits-all world.
Let's begin with this one: THE most asked question I get is...
Do Me a Favor?
Send an email to everyone in your email contacts and tell them
about this site.
"Live on $10,000" Updated
What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on
$10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all
going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might
like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get
pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit
www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional
material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics
and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages,
but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the
aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the
economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do
some active savings...
Click here for the page with more details on it.
week's report is here. For
back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to
Friday March 20, 2009
Ships Collide, Strait
The report this morning that
two ships (both US Navy) have collided in the Strait of Hormuz
and have spilled 25,000 gallons of fuel, may be an important
temporal marker delayed from when first expected.
Peoplenomics subscribers are advised to reread Peoplenomics
issue#384 of January 11, 2009 titled "Strategic
Contingencies: Obama's Persian Gulf "Test"? ". Pay
particular attention to the
HalfPastHuman.com linguistics section under "Basis of the
Conflict Linguistics" which began:
supporting linguistics include other [military] sub sets
including the [navy] which is indicated to have to
[cope/handle] a situation in which a [boat/vessel] has
become [entangled] or [shore-bound] such that the whole of
the situation becomes [intractable/sticky/mired_in_conundrum].
which is not to claim that this will erupt into a 'test'
for the president, but the linguistics are fitting extremely
closely and deserve careful attention to future developments and
in particular whether Iran will now seize on this as an excuse
to exert additional control over the Strait on environmental
concerns or grounds.
apologies for being so premature (January) in outlining
this scenario which may be in play now as we don't usually put
out such detail so far in advance of events. Such is the
rickety nature of the time machine we use.
Great Patience Friday
The markets, of late, have been really testing my patience.
I explained back in December that I would like to see a decline
into the February/March timeframe and then a major rally till
the early part of summer, say mid-July, or so. I think
it's pretty clear that we have completed the little bounce up to
(and slightly past) Robin Landry's 7,404 level, but the fact
that the market closed above that for just one day puts Landry
back watching his indicators to see if we will get more than a
modest decline to something greater than the 6,626 level and
then rally toward the 9,100-10,500 range, or whether we'll just
sink like a stone from here to the real low, which then might be
under 6,600 on the Dow and possibly into the 4-thousands.
It's not hard to figure that the next big move could be
up; the harder part is sorting out the "From where?" question.
Entry points matter.
Bullish sentiment is now reported over 45%, and typically when
that happens, a market high is near, so we seem set to head
lower...but the vexing question is still "How much lower?"
That matter requires great patience
It's hard to be patient, however, with many of the headlines
floating about today. Take for example the House behavior
on AIG. While the headlines are that the "House
passes bill taxing fat AIG and other bonuses" my friend The
Bond Dude (TBD) made an extremely astute observation, which I'll
try to fairly summarize:
"George they don't need another law just to punish
the AIG guys, you know why? Because there's already a
ton of law on the books about illegal conveyance.
You know, the laws that prevent you from putting your house
in your wife's name if you're about to lose a major lawsuit,
and that kind of thing. So look: The AIG guys
knew they were in trouble when those contracts were drafted,
and I expect some sharp criminal lawyers could pretty easily
have gone after them on the grounds of conveyance and
that'd be that..."
All of which gets me back to wondering how folks, including
the president on Leno last night, could be 'surprised' by
any of this. While "AIG gives names of bonus recipients to
New York's attorney general" Andre Cuomo, it all has an air of
dreaminess about it; like it's as much about keeping the public
distracted from reading their 401(k) results, and making the
appearance of 'change' take place. Must be something
extra cynical in my coffee this morning, or I've just lost
That aside, this will be
a critical weekend for Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner.
Endorsements from the president and presidential press secretary
have, in the past, been more or less the 'kiss of death' for
one's career prospects, we should get some valuable insight in
the next few weeks as to how much patience the man at the top
Then there's the little matter of how much patience the 'working
man' will have with all the economic uncertainty, and let's not
forget about those monstrous 401(k) losses. "London
police fear violent protests at G-20 economic meeting" says
one report. Gee, I can for the life of me think why...
But for all the economic gyrations, the hand of the puppet
masters may be dimly seen in the background as the push is on
(from several quarters, if you'll pardon the sick monetary pun)
to push the world into a single currency. "A
"U.N. panel says would should ditch dollar", taken with the
reports that Russia wouldn't mind something like that,
to the point where Vlad Putin will be pitching that at the G-20,
and it all seems like a whole new layer of Globalism could
It's almost like the global PowersThatBe, having installed their
cronies to run individual countries are now pushing like
crazy to install themselves as Masters of the Universe globally.
Putin is a fine example; bet you don't even remember the name of
Russia's current president, do you? If you answered Dmitry
Medvedev, you get a gold star. But even so, I bet it took
you a minute.
To borrow a title from the James Bond series, it's almost like
"The World Is Not Enough". Folks
seem to forget that Putin's career was deeply rooted in the KGB.
And many political commentators have speculated that
the whole Reagan-era "Wall Came Down" was not so the West
could partner with Russia, so much as it would be easier to take
over the whole world, by pretending to be better
businessmen. If you can't understand the strategy, you
need to play more chess.
To summarize my outlook: We have some real power-thirsty
people who would no doubt like to take over reigns of the whole
planet. Yet to achieve that, they first need to build up
the UN's role, so that free humans will bow down to the new
Global Government, which will then make all National Governments
answer to it. The start will be 'soft'.
We see it in the U.N. seeks oil tax for Global Green "New Deal."
If youi wanted to think in highly conspiratorial terms, you
might want to consider the headlines that are all pushing us
toward "global solutions" ever so conveniently offered
just when America is at its most vulnerable. "Rapid
declines in manufacturing spread Global Anxiety".
I ask you to consider whether this is purely a chaotic systemic
event, or whether there are those who have grandiose plans to
increase and perpetuate both personal and family dynastic power.
That we have a Secretary of State who seems to like big plans
that haven't worked, like her national health care attempt,
concerns me, given that the name Clinton, like Putin, has become
such a branded name. And when Global Taxes are wrapped in
the flag of the environment's defense - however unfair or
unworkable, the hair on the back of my neck stands up.
And speaking of Hillary, almost unnoticed is that the
US Supreme Court considers anti-Clinton movie - and whether
it was a documentary or a 90-minute anti-Clinton for President
effort. Question seems to be whether the term "unfit for
office" was a reasoned political assessment as one would expect
in a documentary, or whether urging people to vote
anti-Clinton made it a political ad.
So much of the news is pushed and shoved, this way and that, by
largely unseen forces, that it frightens me for the kind of
country my children will grow up in. Just another example
of unseen hands? Go look up the
WHOIS record on some of this
seemingly "spontaneous" (city name) Tea Party web sites.
You'll find in some cases that republicorp types are involved
and that the site domain names were purchased in AUGUST 2008,
which means the hidden hand is working an agenda over on that
side of things, too.
It all adds up to a thoroughly screwed up world, not that
that should surprise you any. As bad as the
republicorps seem to be, the democorps are just as bad, but few
bother to plumb the depths of meaning of the "corps" designation
because it's the lobbyists and the corporate influencers working
this agenda, or that, which really run the world.
Which is why corporate power and influence continues to grow,
and why I'm so disappointed when books like the "Singularity is
near" come out. Not that their best case interpretation
isn't possible, it's just extremely unlikely that
we'll have a new kind of expanded freedom and less work as
humans because of our technological expertise. Why?
Because someone is going to own whatever new stuff comes
along and in the exercise of ownership we will see, as is
already the case in Iraq, how corporations prevent regular
humans from carrying seed from season to season: Tribute
must be paid to the seed corporations and that agenda is being
worked here in the US with anti-human HR 875 which would
effectively outlaw small farms, being aggressively pushed by
those more interested in money than humanity.
Linguistics are being played like a fiddle to control your
thinking. Take the title of HR 875. It's labeled as
the "Food Safety Modernization Act." Yet, as the John
Birch Society notes, it should be opposed because:
its noble-sounding stated objectives, H.R. 875 would
effectively transfer all state control over food regulation
to the new Food Safety Administration (FSA), which is
destined to become a new federal bureaucracy that would
eventually dominate state and local food safety agencies
already in place."
And this fits what I've warned you of many times over:
When government wants to expand, they just wrap things up in
"anti-terrorism", "saving the environment", or even more
insidious, a "hero" image, as is the case in the latest attempt
to sneak in gun control by linguistic manipulation.
It's all like pushing a bill through CONgress to increase
availability of matches to children but mislabeling it as a
"Fire Safety Act"...who would, after all vote against "Fire
Safety"? It's the same old crap from the politicos - the
"yes we want no bananas" kind of wording.
The only really good news I've seen this week is that
a plan by the feds to destroy once-fired bullet casings has been
reversed, but only after a couple of Montana senators intervened.
And so goes another week in the life. So-called leaders
are still scheming, government's hand is getting deeper in your
pocket almost every year, and all most of us want to have is
enough time to pursue whatever's in our hearts without having to
hire an attorney or file a three-year long process environmental
impact statement to do it. It'd be nice if the markets
would stabilize, but that might involve sound money and less
pulling of future demand into the present through massive
The problem is, if that were to all happen, we'd find ourselves
in the midst of a most terrible Depression. Actually,
though, it's already unfolding, it's just not admitted
So I continue watching and waiting for some tradable to happen
in the markets, amused as
FDIC chair Sheila Bair seems to have enough sense to call BS on
Treasury Sec. Geithner's call for a super-regulator.
What did I tell you government answer to every problem is?
I don't know about you, but I'm not sure how long my patience
will hold out. Maybe the best thing to do will be to keep
the TV off more of the time and send more time driving my
rototiller. Speaking of which...
Tired of my nearly constant whining about how important it is to
put in a garden? Please note that the "White
House to break ground on 'kitchen garden'. How many
clues do you need when I say wildly inflationary food prices are
Of course for many, Depression 2.0 is already quite real as
'living in the capitol' building in Wisconsin.
tells illegal immigrants that work site raids are un-American."
Not sure what planet she's on, but out here in the East Texas
outback, we have laws, they get enforced and we don't pee away
$30-grand of taxpayer money to fly home on a whim. We also
don't undermine the hard work of Border Patrol, soft pedal the
drug war on the border. And, come to think of it, out
here, foot & mouth disease gets treated promptly. Want my
Dots Worth Connecting
Although the headlines out of down-under claim that "Tonga
eruptions 'unrelated' to underwater earthquake",
Let me think this through: A major earthquake happens
about 175 miles from an active volcano. Moreover, the
volcano sits on the Kermadec Ridge,
an undersea range that takes off to the northeast from White
Island. That this earthquake
looks to my untrained eye like it occurred in the
Tonga Trench (the northeasterly extension of the Kermadec
Trench) seems pretty obvious. Yes, it's a fair
distance up the trench, so to speak, but it sure suggests to me
and some of the other 'great unwashed' that the Pacific Plate is
on the move and someone's soft-peddling the obvious.
Time Machine Radio
Note to www.weatherwar.info
and chemtrail researcher Scott Stevens: Please send me the URL
so people can hear Cliff and I on your new internet radio show
tomorrow night....I'll post it, so please check back. I
know it's called "Amerika" and it's on from 9 to 11 PM tomorrow
night...if tomorrow is March 21st...
Our graphics art whiz, Rebecca Price, is in the process of
launching a new editorial cartoon web site. Notice
carefully the retooled star field change on Old Glory here
capturing the New Economics quite nicely...
--- snip and save section ---
Them Tea Parties
Not withstanding the fact that some of the Tea Party sites have
been in the works by republicorps who are doing their best to go
above and beyond the call of "loyal opposition" there are some
Tea Party events that are spontaneous and not concocted by
anti-democorp types. So it's worth sharing this email:
"Good morning George,
I've been bothered for months
regarding the so called "Tea Party" protests. While these
are an interesting expression of discontent with the
disgusting pork and waste by our "selected" politicians,
they are ineffective in that all they do is to make noise
and help their participants feel good. Most are not covered
by the media except maybe for amusement. The big difference
between the real Boston Tea Party and these events is that
there is no cost to TPTB. In fact, the protests may well be
a way of identifying dissent and providing a channel for
Contrast this to the real Boston
This cost an estimated 1.87
million real 2007 USD to TPTB! There were REAL consequences.
The protests in France and Germany in the last couple of
years were virtual riots, with millions of dollars in real
damage to the perceived insiders. They were taken seriously.
I am NOT recommending violent
protest or damage to others' property (that's illegal), and
it will polarize things, likely playing into the hands of
TPTB. I do think it's important to recognize HOW we are
being played, and either change our play or remove ourselves
from the game. I, for one, refuse to work for more than a
nominal number of greenbacks, and concentrate my efforts on
non taxable value, such as enjoying a sunset or repairing my
car, house, tractor, etc. Just call it the "John Galt
philosophy". You apparently do too. If even that becomes
taxable, my lifestyle will shift as necessary in order to
avoid support of this criminal waste and misuse. Apparently
TPTB either can't recognize this or they actively wish to
flush our economy down the toilet.
BTW, life is much more enjoyable
most heartily agree with the nonviolent approach, I'd also
advise some serious research to see who the organizers are...
just saying...we get 'played' enough...and the only sure-fire
antidote I've found that works is research & questioning all
from a reader who has lots of questions:
I read your site on most days
and continue to benefit from your awesome and generous
combination of information, wit, speculation, philosophy,
market forecasts and valuable consultations on how to
prepare for upcoming shifts on planet earth.
Since I've been reading your
daily entries, we've started a prolific vegetable garden,
brought up a sweet flock of egg laying chickens, subscribed
to halfpasthuman and EWI, read James Kunstler, and many
other synchronistic and elucidating developments. So I'm
grateful to you for all that you share and lead me to on a
day to day basis. Thank you for all that you do and all that
you give !
I have as always a few questions
that I would love for you to address in the daily column :
Is Landry's crash alert over ?
Has the bear rally begun ? Hochberg at EWI is calling for a
new primary wave up ? What does Landry say ? The Fed
announcement on Wednesday that it has officially begun it's
digidollar fest definitely gave the markets a push up.
However, we're starting to breach levels of resistance that
are making a dramatic pullback look less and less likely.
Another veteran trader that I follow, Dick Diamond, sees a
small pullback to S & P 740 by early next week and then a
stronger rally up through April and May. I'm wondering if
our suspected crash to 6200 or below on the Dow is slipping
into obscurity. What's your take ?
What are yours and Landry's
forecasts for Oil ? Are we out of the $30's for good and on
our steady climb towards $75 a barrel ?
You haven't mentioned that
potential pullback in Gold due to the linguistics forecast
of discovery of impure gold from china again. Do you still
see this as a possibility ? EWI is forecasting Gold $680 or
below before the next wave up. What's your take on gold?
Pretty amazing that under water
volcano showing up right on cue after Cliff's forecast. Wild
times...stranger than the strangest science fiction.
Is the crash alert over?
Has the bear market rally begin?
Maybe, but we will know more on this next dip.
Yes, there should be a leg up as
we are expecting some paradigm pimping late spring.
My take is stay out of markets
until the way ahead is clear. I'm still in Treasury
Landry figures oil and gold
should rally in the leg up and no reason to argue. The
sense that a bounce is coming should push oil toward $80.
Could we retest lows first? Of course.
Depends on the secular rally. I don't trade gold.
I own a little, it's like accumulating for a rainy
day, not a trading vehicle.
Whew - not trading advice...just my take on things. But
yeah, that volcano stuff is eerie...
Send snip and save items, used sports cars, heritage seeds and
whatever comments to
end snip and save section ---
Thursday March 19, 2009
Tacks and the One World March
As I got up this morning, the first thing that hit me between
the eyeballs was where the Dow Futures were sitting: right
smack-dab on Robin Landry's 7,404 number for the Dow.
They've since bounced up. Although the market closed above that
on Wednesday, it was more a reaction to the Fed deciding to
engage in a particularly curious form of economics, wherein it
will buy US Treasury debt.
This is all part of a massive global readjustment that has the
avowed purpose of repairing a terribly out-of-whack global
economy whose problems stem from the fact that cannibal
corporatism has reached the 'edge of the Petri dish, and the
'food supply' for further growth via legitimate means has
been reached. What's ahead now is only one course that's
going to be somewhat painful: a new kind of company which
is motivated by something other than growth of EBITDA and
the bonus pool, something that's been in the wings since the
model started blowing up in early 2000 as the Internet Bubble
A particularly candid assessment came in the UK Guardian papers
on Monday that sized up the British Labor Party's big [economic]
gamble this way:
something close to desperation is starting to develop inside
government. After watching the slide in bank shares on
Friday, one cabinet minister did not altogether joke when he
said: "The banks are fucked, we're fucked, the country's
seen this coming for a couple of years, it's no wonder our
compadres with the rickety time machine over at
have labeled this the "Year of Transition" where a huge portion
of global humans start figuring out that the old ways aren't
working and something better needs to be developed, perhaps
to emerge in recognizable form in 2010 and beyond, but which
along the way will bring the social displacement/ Summer of
Hell/2009 due in a few months.
precursor events are visible to the aware observer even now as
is shown by the beginning of MainStreamMedia coverage of the
Tea Party protests held (or being planned) around the nation and
getting wide circulation on YouTube and other video streamers.
this libretto in hand and knowing the PowersThatBe are about to
mount a major pimping of 'prosperity' through mid to late July,
about the limit of personal action between now and then is to
figure out how to cope with global failing systems as the year
progresses, not know which one will trigger the
political/economic crisis to come in November, but realizing
that basis like food, footwear, water and willpower are things
we can be address at a personal level.
Fed action on Wednesday about ensures that $1-trillion dollars
will be 'created' out of thin air, although the issue as I
see it, continues to be one of velocity since money at
rest doesn't create jobs, money in motion does. Filling
the coffers with money at rest (capital) only works when that
money is loaned out at interest, a process that takes time, and
that will be something for future historians to debate.
the economic problems is a broader issue: I happened to
spend a few hours yesterday in the Federal Election Commission's
database of political contributions to do a little research on
how much money Senator Chris Dodd (who added the executive bonus
provisions to the Stimulus Bill) had received from current and
past AIG executives. I got up to $54,000 with contributors
through "L" in the alphabet and became so distraught that I
called Robin Landry to commiserate a bit.
made an interesting point after we agreed that honesty and
integrity seemed to be in increasingly short supply in the
country of late. He noted that with the executive bonuses,
there's a fine line because if government can arbitrarily negate
written contracts it sets a dangerous precedent: from
then on - when contracts can be voided at the government's will,
you could get to a point where systemic trust could break
down. A most astute observation on his part. And
systemic distrust seems a key in turning a recession into a
got me to wondering what would happen if I set up a keyword flag
on the word "lie" and put it into my morning routine of news
questing; what would come up?
LIED to us in order to push his merit pay/charter school agenda"
headlines one report.
Changes His Story" the word 'lie' appears. And
although the phrase "now I remember adding that bonus
language..." comes up in some reports, the best news of the day
may be that some in the MainStreamMedia are getting tougher with
as the questions get tougher, the answers found become
"Fannie plans bonuses of $1M for 4 execs"
Liddy asks employees to give back bonuses" - and AIG
worried about employee safety isn't giving out employee
also discovering that "Hedge
funds may benefit from government cash to AIG: report"
may find anger over bonuses backfires on Agenda"
good news is that the usual drivel and softball questions are
evaporating and now we can get down to asking hard questions,
not only of our leaders, but of ourselves.
bit of linguistic (perhaps closer to
semiotic) history? Back in the old days in America,
when we were that place Louis L'Amour wore about, that
wild West & frontier spirit of general stores, women used to go
shopping for fabric in order to sew their own clothes.
That was ages before container loads of textile goods from sweat
shops overseas, you see.
would have the shopkeeper keep pull out this bolt of this fabric
or that, so they could look at the fabric, feel it and the
shopkeeper would oblige because that was a period when customer
service really mattered and every penny counted.
woman eventually looked like she might have made up her mind
what to purchase, the shopkeeper would ask "Shall we get down to
brass tacks?" It was a reference reference to a series of
tacks placed at measured intervals on the counter; 'brass tacks'
was how things were measured.
a bad analogy to what's going on at the uber-macro level in the
world today: The globalist model has been stretched about
as far as it can, so over the next few years, emerging truths
about the limits of growth will become apparent. We're
starting to 'measure up' the world so we can build a more
workable paradigm to carry humans forward.
Hell, the problems of next November, and a lot of foreclosures,
unemployment, angst and even 'taking it to the streets' is all
coming our way from further up the timeline. But the
really cool part is to sit back in semi-detached state and
observe the Grand Design Pattern being followed by Universe as
we go shopping for a new definition of human 'progress'.
It's circuitous route that humans follow before getting down to
on the road to globalist's One World Government, the UN has been
cooking up a new
global oil tax plan to initially raise $750 billion for what's
being called a "Green New Deal".
know about you, but I have serious reservations about the US
paying a UN tax of any kind. Why is that? Because
to pay a tax infers authority. And sorry, the Framer's
of America were sovereign kinds of fellows. So is this the
new Crown? Not for me, thanks.
Trouble for Globalists
Globalists have been warning that it would be dangerous for the
US or UK to engage in any tariffs to put their domestically made
goods on a more even footing with sweat-shop goods from
overseas, since that's where they make the most money - on wage
rate differentials, I notice
little attention is being paid by the MSM to Mexico placing
tariffs on U.S. made goods.
isn't there more uproar, you're wondering? The new
tariffs, which Mexico is putting in place today spare
Ford and Tyson according to this report.
placed a tickler on the word "tariff" because in the last
Depression (the 1930's) tariffs were one way countries tried to
level the international playing field, or run things in their
favor. Today, it's by competing currency devaluations;
same effect, just one step removed./
it this way: In the last Depression, the PowersThatBe were
largely in the US and UK, hence tariffs/taxes on imported goods
were how profits could be assured. Now, since the PTB are
global, the currency front is where the action is because
the money's being made on the wage rate differentials.
countries has precisely equal labor and capital rates, there
would be no international trade to speak of, since it would be
cheaper to make goods at home....but that's obvious, right?
The only reason you have a job today is that your position
hasn't been automated or outsource elsewhere. If you think
I'm lying, I can give you the names of thousands of former IT
directors to talk with...or simply call the customer support
number for most software outfits and notice the accents.
way, there's a redefinition of the word 'family' underway. "U.S.
teen birth rate up again, fewer pre-term babies" reports one
headline. But while "US
births break record; 40 pct. are out-of-wedlock".
of demographic pushing trends: You saw the story over at
KFMB's web site: "Military
Layoffs: Unclose Same May No Longer Want You"?
Eventually, economics will likely drop the level of US military
spending, and as that happens, returning troops will spur the
economy, that is, of course, if they can find meaningful jobs
when they get here.
Attorney General signals a shift in marijuana policy.
This leads me to wonder if folks are actually coming to their
senses, or if money & influence of the booze lobby - foes of
things that compete with their 'getting high franchise' -
is drying up?
Over $51. Remember my projection of $3 gas within a
year...prices can't stay down forever, so enjoy it while you
can. The double whamming is when the dollar is slammed.
That's when things will get....er...interesting.
President Obama is due to be on Jay Leno's show tonight,
becoming the first sitting president to make an appearance.
Wonder if he'll do stand up?
of speaking: Hopefully
the teleprompter will work better for O tonight than the St.
Patties Day situation where a prompter blunder left Obama
thanking himself in a speech....
New Lands Arriving
predictive linguistics pals have been telling us for months to
be alert to 'new lands' emergent in the southern hemisphere.
Not as expected off Patagonia (yet), but this one bears watching
volcanic eruption is moving around flights to New Zealand.
homework assignment: How many new undersea volcanoes will
it take to move sea level enough to feed into the global coastal
event realization of global pop(ulation) entity in modelspace
due along this year?
and save section ---
Investing in TEOTWAWKI
I'm not the only guy who has a Bond Dude...someone who looks at
the market from the fixed income perspective. A reader
just sent me a remark by his Bond Dude which is pretty
don't know what to think other than that this is what the
end of civilization looks like months before its occurrence.
A mirage. We all just learned that we are in a depression."
But just because we are in a new Depression - something that's
slowly seeping into the collective consciousness, it doesn't
mean that it's totally 'the end of the world as we
know it' -TEOTWAWKI. Still, there seems to be a fair bit
of risk into jumping on this "new bull market" just yet.
As a reader in Europe noted today:
only 12 calendar days the Dow registered its lowest close in
over a decade, some of the sentiment data are registering
very bullish sentiment from traders. It seems that virtually
everyone knows the market has reached an important bottom
and cannot wait to take advantage of these great bargains.
Perhaps they should know the CBOE total put call ratio and
the Trading Index moving averages are signaling some of the
most bullish sentiment seen in years. It would be hard to
imagine a more bearish scenario than that. Of course the mkt
is always right and I hope it will prove me wrong."
The problem in making sense of the world, in light of the Fed
decision on Wednesday is becoming more difficult, for sure, as
confused. How do you purchase your own bonds. are they
literally taking them off the books by doing this. this has
to create massive inflation. please comment"
You got it! The whole financial world is now certifiably
unsane. Not insane - I said unsane.
As in completely frigging nuts. Here's further proof:
Ok, George, I tried to wrap my
head around it, but this one is just too unbelievable to not
require a shot of El Don. Get this: Geithner is in over his
head and clueless as to how to move forward, so Obama has
decided to "help" him out, instead of firing him...
"Citigroup Inc.'s chief
economist is leaving the company for a job at the Treasury
Story Link 1
Story Link 2
You have absolutely got to be
kidding me!!! The corruption is totally off the freakin'
hinges. How much more obvious can it possibly get, before
people realize they're being obamaboozled!
Un-freakin-believable. Good luck
not poppin' a vessel over this'un.
out how to cope with - and invest a bit here and there - in the
face of the massive changes now underway presents something of a
problem. It's like walking into what you used to gamble in
when it was an honest casino had suddenly replaced all
its blackjack dealers with sleight-of-hand specialists who were
certifiably nuts. And when you go over to the roulette
machines, it dons on you that none of the machines are paying
off anything. except for the ones that are already
occupied by players who are friends of the casino's owner.
And over at the dice table, the die are loaded...but the loads
change on every throw or two, so no matter what, yoiu get deeper
and deeper down in your own pocket to just keep playing.
point, you pinch yourself and ask "What am I doing in this
who've been reading this site may have come to the conclusion
it's a good place for cheap drinks and people watching, but
little else. The sense of surreal is starting to permeate
the public's mind, as in another email I read:
enjoy reading about "business" (well, not so novel these
days) because I never took a biz course in my life... it's
like reading sci- fi..."
change is everywhere you look:
a while now I have noticed that we here in the US of A are
no longer "CITIZENS" and rather have become "CONSUMERS" I
even see this term used by yourself. In my view, CONSUMERS
are all standing in the feedlot waiting for slaughter or
their need feed. When did we stop being citizens? It really
sends an interesting message/mindset about who we are, don't
ya think? Citizens might DO something! Consumers, well...
Tom Freidman NYTimes was on NPR
recently and used the terms "I"ll be gone/you'll be gone" (IBG/YBG)
to reference the attitude(s) of almost everyone when It
comes to what I'll call personal responsibility. (Real
estate flip that house who cares? (IBG), get that alt a
mortgage (IBG) , then flip that house (YBG) Bundle those and
sell 'em (IBG)...As simple as getting the order wrong at the
fast food window (YBG) I think it starts way up at the top
of the foodchain and business simply play the percentages
and is pervasive throughout most all transactions. Here in
Colorado the gas drillers want to drill in watersheds of the
communities downstream Cuz they can, they leased the right
from someone else (Fed) who does not live there (IBG) and
they're not about to announce what chemicals they use to "frac"
the gas out (proprietary info) and it's in the drinking
water now! (its okay IBG) And some wonder why we're in a
The first rule of wealth
building: "Spend less than you earn"
Second rule: "Never break rule
You think Prez Obama could here that/ follow that? (I'm not
there yet, myself, only to the place where I have left-over
non allocated $ from one paycheck to another. Getting my
Puts a whole range of meanings on this...
Wednesday March 18, 2009
Fed Gets its new statement....
"Information received since the Federal Open Market
Committee met in January indicates that the economy
continues to contract. Job losses, declining equity and
housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on
consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and
difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut
back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have
slumped as a number of major trading partners have also
fallen into recession. Although the near-term economic
outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy
actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions,
together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute
to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.
In light of increasing economic
slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation
will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk
that inflation could persist for a time below rates that
best foster economic growth and price stability in the
In these circumstances, the
Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote
economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The
Committee will maintain the target range for the federal
funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic
conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of
the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide
greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the
Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal
Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an
additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed
securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities
to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its
purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to
a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve
conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided
to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury
securities over the next six months. The Federal Reserve has
launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to
facilitate the extension of credit to households and small
businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible
collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to
include other financial assets. The Committee will continue
to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal
Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial and
for a long time? Woohoo! Press the rally button down
on the Street. Oh, and gold's taken off, too...
A Word To Ben:
One of the simplest concepts in economics is the velocity of
money. It's sort of like inventory turns ratio, to my
way of thinking. You
know: If you have 10 widgets in inventory and over the course of
the year, you sell 10, and replace those 10, you have a turnover
of 1. One in, one out, kinda thing. The formal
answer to inventory turns is
So, if you want to have a little more money fall to the bottom
line, you do what? Increase the number of times your
inventory turns over during the year, or run with leaner
inventory to reduce inventory associated costs (like
warehousing, and such). Simple so far, right?
In the study of how money sloshes about and makes the world go
round, round, round, the Velocity of Money is stated in the similar
That big V thingy on the left means 'velocity of money'
while the big T on top there is your aggregate value of all
transactions, and the big M on the bottom means the amount of
money in circulation in a particular period.
I mention these two formulas today because they are at the very
heart of what America is presently facing and why there
continues to be a chance of the US slipping deeper into a recession and
dragging the rest of the world along with us into a full-blown
Not that I'm alone in this assessment, since
legendary commodities trader Jim Rogers is saying much the same
thing - as you can see in this video if you've got the
Rogers says the US bailout approach mimics the lost decade
experienced by Japan after their market peaked in 1989 - says
we're trying the same thing. Worse, he says "They may turn it into that
(the 1930's)..." which would put us in a Depression again.
This morning, let's consider the two formulas above from the
perspective of a formerly robust business segment: Auto and
Starting first with inventory, we see the pictures floating
around the net how there are scads of new cars sitting unsold,
even tons of product made for the 2008 model year. What
had been a turns level somewhere around 1, meaning 2008 cars
were almost all sold off in that model year, has now turned into
something less than 1, meaning there's leftover, unsold 2008
This then ripples into the nation's velocity of money since
fewer cars are being sold, so in our Velocity of Money figuring,
the big T on top has gotten smaller, while the Big M on the
bottom has remained essentially unchanged.
I say essentially unchanged because of two very items:
Bailouts for banks does not increase velocity, since much of it's
going into what amounts to a stagnant money pool. If
the improperly represented "bailout" was really planned
to be effective, it would have at least been
augmented by a program that would either reduce
inventory (meaning increase business sales in general) or
it would have somehow reduced the average cost of inventory.
Putting money into an account doesn't help anyone but
counterparties, and then only to stabilize their credit
ratings. No unwinding of excessive leverage necessary,
although some of that goes on, sure.
But since the money went to stagnant pools, or to pay bonus, so sorry, you been lied to and
the stimulus ain't gonna work for at least 12-month and
maybe as long as 24-months since it takes forever for spending wends its way through
traditional spending channels and get doled out as
paychecks to us working stiffs.
There's nothing evident yet that (in my judgment as an
observer) has any discernable impact on loosening the
consumer's death-grip on their wallets and purses.
ask, why might that be? Employment is going down, but
prices keep going up. Evidence needed?
We turn to this morning's Consumer
Price Index report, realizing that hedonics (the
substitution of Salisbury steaks for Porterhouse, and that kind
of thing) allows these numbers to be pushed hither and yon,
although since the Bushco days, it's mostly hither:
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
increased 0.5 percent in February, before seasonal
adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S.
Department of Labor reported today. The February level of
212.193 (1982-84=100) was 0.2 percent higher than in
Consumer Price Index
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
increased 0.5 percent in February, prior to seasonal
adjustment. The February level of 206.708 (1982-84=100) was
0.3 percent lower than in February 2008.
The Chained Consumer Price Index
for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in
February on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The February
level of 121.901 (December 1999=100) was 0.3 percent lower
than in February 2008. Please note that the indexes for the
post-2007 period are subject to revision.
CPI for All Urban Consumers
On a seasonally adjusted basis,
the CPI-U increased 0.4 percent in February after rising 0.3
percent in January. The energy index rose 3.3 percent in
February following a 1.7 percent increase in January as the
gasoline index rose 8.3 percent in February after a 6.0
percent increase in January. In contrast, the indexes for
fuel oil and natural gas both declined in February. About
two-thirds of the all items increase was due to the rise in
the gasoline index. Compared to the July 2008 peak, the
energy index was 29.2 percent lower and the gasoline index
was down 44.0 percent. The food index turned down slightly
in February, falling 0.1 percent. The food at home index
fell 0.4 percent with five of the six major grocery store
food group indexes posting declines in February. The index
for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in
February, the same
rate extrapolated? 6.17% per year. They somehow
don't mention the forward implications of 0.5% compounded out 12
months and instead, continue to play into the notion of
backward-looking economics, which is why we get into so much
trouble. No one bothers to see that cow in the road in
front of the car, since we're all looking back at Abilene,
wondering what we went there fore....
Unadjusted, the food (ex beverages) index was up 4.8% over the
past year. What keeps things from looking worse?
Energy prices were going down at an annual rate of 18.5%
compared with unadjusted year-ago numbers.
Again, that's backward-looking. In the most recent month,
energy prices were up a whopping 3.3%, which if you pencil it
forward means a 47.7% increase in energy costs a year out, which
means what? That if this kind of increase continues, we
will be at $3.12 gas in a year if you're paying $2.11 a gallon
numbers came out, the folks down on Wall Street are looking to
give back some of yesterday's trade which moved toward Robin Landry's 7,404 level...
you that every close under Dow 7,404 in Landry's work, just
let's longer term indicators on the 90-minute chart catch up to
the already bearish count which is suggesting at a minimum a
retest of the 6626 lows, or a mid-range expectation of 5,800,
and a worst-case 4,400 before we get the meaningful rally.
to me that it increases the odds of jailed economics whiz Martin
Armstrong's turn date (which I pencil for about April 21, since
the date 2009.3 would be Jan 1 + [0.3*365 = 109.5] that gets us
to a week after Tax Day, or so), to be a low, but that's not
investment advice...just a dart over coffee and I tend to hit
the water cooler more than the dartboard in my guesses.
Gold: While the Fed and CONgress seem only to be
pushing velocity of money in the direction of bankers, while the
rest of us wait around for trickle-through to show up, I have to
wonder if maybe this isn't part of a globalist plan to install
the New World Order, which as we all know is the Western
Capitalist/ USA-British Banking Cabal's idea of how to run the
you've seen the headline that at the upcoming
G20, the Kremlin is about to pitch a new global reserve
currency. Since Russia is now the top oil producer
in the world, if I read figures right, then it would make sense
that they would look at the Chinese experience of buck-holding
and want to avoid that. You'd probably make the same call.
other day, as I was reading through the government's statistics
on money and such, I noticed that the US has 250+ million ounces
of gold and that in whatever report I was reading, that gold was
valued at $42.222 an ounce.
in the details correction: from Wikipedia:
reserves (or gold holdings) are held by central banks as a
store of value. In 2001, it was estimated that all the gold
ever mined totaled 145,000 tonnes. One tonne of gold
equated to a value of US$30.27 million as of February 14,
2009 ($941.35/troy ounces). The total value of all gold
ever mined would be US$4.39 trillion at that price.[note 1]
my, wouldn't it be a simple matter to reduce out debt and
improve our nation's balance sheet (all in one fell swoop) to
just let gold float up to the price which it's going for on eBay
- nearly $1,000 an ounce? Suddenly, the whole US economic
picture gets a lot healthier and we could get back to the real
problems we have, namely, how do we put more cash into the hands
to be the one to break this to you, but that's not the plan.
You see the NWO, or at least the US-British Banker cabal has
other designs, it seems, so we'll just keep perpetrating the
myth that the US and world are in terrible financial times, all
the while not mentioning that some of our key numbers are based
on valuing gold at 1/20th of it's market value. Especially
when the national debt is $11-trillion dollars. I'd
sure think about putting $250 billion more value on books, but
no lobbyist dough to be had on that, or what?
leaves me speculating endlessly that whatever the hidden
agenda is behind all this, and while it's not yet clearly visible,
I get all twitchery when I think about it too much.
Implausible Deniability Department
Administration: We didn't find out about AIG bonuses until
this month..." Since we taxpayers now own 79% of AIG,
I'd be asking WTF?
Buffalo News article is that this is starting to shed light "on
AIG political cash cow." You getting this yet?
Money in, favors out. Yessir,
novel thought: How's about someone with a little
balls/cajones in Washington (if there is such a person) puts in
an amendment to any tax AIG execs that would require all
members of CONgress to refund any and all that campaign money
some of the Hill's worst no doubt received from outfits that
later took public TARP or TALF money...and let's throw in
payback of those MADOFF contributions, too, just for good
NEVER happen, of course, but OMG we are such sheep...
"UFOs photographed over London" says the Telegraph this morning.
Part of the 'contact coming' meme, one asks?
'Help' in Gaza?
The very well connected Mideast outfit Debka is headlining this
morning that the "Saudis
create anti-Israel "militia" in Gaza to combat Hamas."
--- snip and save section ---
Life's Remaining Pleasures
Worried about your job? That disappearing 401(k)?
Or, just the mysterious lack of 'change' filtering through the
system into your pocket?
Relax...here have some chocolates...for as
reports, when there's a recession going on, the more people look
for the sweet sweets...
Another thing that's changing? A report out of Connecticut
"Library use on the rise as residents trim spending."
Other life pleasures, such as a pint at the local pub in the
UK, are falling a bit as evidenced by the UK's report that
alcohol consumption was down 3.2% in 2008. Not
that government policies aren't driving people to drink, it
seems, but because taxes on booze have gone up.
There Was Something Fishy, Department
oils cardiovascular claims overstated" says a report out
today. Oh crap...I mean carp.
Finnish Transport Ministry has unveiled a 2020 climate
program. Among their objectives: They want fuel
consumption down by more than 40%.
Not to break the news to 'em, but if you take how the markets
have been doing over the past 1.5 years and extend that out to
2020, they may not have to do anything to hit their goal.
I couldn't help but notice that Fujitsu has a new product coming
out...aimed at Kindle: Amazon's Wireless Reading Device
market, it seems.
'e-paper' this is a color reader product called a FLEPia.
Thought You'd Seen It All....
Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin are entering the world of comic
books as characters. Wonder how Hill's latest gaffe
with the Russian dude and that button would sketch up?
Here's a site with a poll asking 'Do
you think 'American Idol' is fixed? Not normally the
kind of thing to be covered here, but the poll gives us a rare
bit of insight into the lack of mental clarity in America these
You see, one of the choices is "Not sure, and don't care.
I prefer "Antique Roadshow." Yet, if people really
didn't care, they wouldn't waste time voting.
It's the trick of marketing I'm fascinated with. The
illusion of disinterest is offered yet at all kinds of
levels, people buy into to what the time monks often call the
'cult of personality' but it's labeled elsewhere are 'celebrity'
or 'royalty'. Subtle and graceful, how it plays? If
folks didn't care, they wouldn't click that choice, as nearly
20% had when I looked.
I'm pretty sure it means something. I'll let you
ponder it. How about starting with "Is active disinterest"
Please send along your snip and save contributions to
firstname.lastname@example.org - you know,
the kind of thing you snip out of the paper or hear at the
office and put on your refrigerator and then ask 6-months later
"What did I save that for?"
--- end snip and save section ---
Tuesday March 17, 2009
Web Bot Hit: The New Electrics
Breakthrough To Watch
You ought to be keeping an extremely sharp eye on
Carbon Nanotubes (CNT's) because it turns out that CNT's may
replace copper wire in some applications.
Of course, if you're into electronics, you caught the bit about
transmitting 'both AM and FM radio signals" which is akin
to saying a straw can carry water or milk, but the key thing is
that CNT's are the future. Sorta like the movie Mrs.
Robinson where the fellow says "I have one word for you:
Seems, since the linguistic reports of
HalfPastHuman (which you may find useful if you're trying to
live ahead of the future, instead of under it) say we're
right now in the dawning of a period called 'the New
Electrics", CNT's are where to place your bets.
There's a second reason to invest in outfits that show high
promise in CNT's. It comes from recent work suggesting
that CNT's may actually be able to get at some of that rumored
"free energy". I assume you caught that "Carbon
nanotubes can cut down motor commutator energy loss by 90%"
a few days back?
about another reason? Then
there was that report in "Nature" about CNT's great for
ultrafast charging batteries, too.
me throw one in the hopper just so it's for sure out in the
public domain: I was reading his paper last night
where James Clerk Maxwell proposed in 1861 that when a magnetic
field runs in a particular direction, there are 'lines of
force'. He further describes how the energy is transferred
from line to line, so that all the currents induced follow the
thing creates a molecular-level problem: So here's the key
insight from Maxwell's 1861 paper. Picture two wheels,
each turning. If one wheel is turning clockwise, a while
pressed against it will turn which way?
Counterclockwise. This led Maxwell to propose there
are something akin to 'idler' wheels down at the fine magnets
level which transmit energy between 'active wheels'
see where this gets? The so-called 'Zero Point Energy"
under Maxwell's interpretation of magnetic vortices theory --
heady stuff for 1861, eh? gut was a freakin' genius and no
wonder Heaviside edited out the good stuff -- is likely to
be found and tapped by utilizing these so-called idler wheels
which Maxwell proposed."
All public domain. Now it's just an engineering issue.
But isn't that what us marketing guys always say? "It's
JUST software code..." was one I used to say all the
time. Same thing here: Maxwell says go looking for 'idler
wheels' - now will you just get on with the engineering and stop
messing with these half steps between?
engineering can be patented to get at these 'idler wheels'.
The wheels themselves? Sorry, already in the public domain
and hanging around a magnet near you. Lodestone the next
uranium? Who knows?
We're going to get to the markets - much to cover there, but
before we go there, I'll begin Life Lesson by noticing
that the Universe has be calling me to write something about my
pain theory, since it has been supplying plenty of pain for me
to ponder over the past few days. (skip
ahead to my point by clicking here)
It started with the arrival of new-born goats and a couple of
nannies that wouldn't nurse their young. These bad mommas
had to be restrained so the babies wouldn't be kicked and so the
nans get into the habit of nursing. Along the way, their
uncooperative horns and my body had a few disagreements.
Along came my old friend pain. I may be starting 7-th
decade perhaps, but not many more brain cells than where the
first began, it turns out.
This was followed the next day with Aikido Master Zeus the Cat
flipping me...OK, maybe more like tripping me...on the way back
from the goats. Between the moment of tripping, there was
a delicious moment of time-expansion that goes with all fine
martial arts. It seemed like weeks in that space between
trip/flip and impact as I assiduously avoided further contacts
with the cat, with a cross between River Dance and Jackie Chan,
as I worked out how not to break anything and set up rolling
just so on impact. Except for seeing stars for a second,
sensei cat was just calling pain to visit some more.
Third time's a charm when Universe is speaking to you and you're
too dumb to get it, so instead of a single root canal on Monday,
I had two. Universe conveniently had a patient booked
after me cancel. Thanks, loads. This morning it's
Ibuprofen and as soon as E goes to town, something strong for
The now need for another crown aside, although that does get us
to the financial pain topic, I think I'm starting to get the
message, so maximum pain is where we begin today's study of
This is triple-witching week, when loads of
options expire and will be settled up. The maximal pain
theory of options trading suggests that the market will close
for options traders at that price level which will allow the
holders of underlying securities to pay off on as little as
Let's look at
General Motors options, just for example. If GM closes
out the week at exactly 2 1/2, it looks like 109,960 call
option holders would not make a dime. 56,486 holders of $4
call option holders (call options are bets the stock would go
higher) options would be out all their dough, and so forth.
But then look at the put options (the bets the stock will go
lower): There's 56,475 holders of GM call options that
expire this week, who could make $1.50 a share ($150 per
contract which stands for 100 shares worth).
What the market will do over the balance of the week, is usually
to tend toward that price which will cause the most amount of
pain among the option holders, or at least that's how it seems
to option players including me when I engage my darker side and
am playing them. One way to do this is calculate all the
losses on GM amongst all call options and all put options and
model out the weigh (or buoyancy) of things based on creating
the maximum number of losers.
Another way to consider short-term directionality of the market
is to go back to the previous options expiration, which was
February 20th, and look at where the indices were then
compared to where they may end up this week. Last
Dow was at 7,365'ish, the
was around 1,441, while the
S&P 500 was
Naturally, this 'maximum pain theory' is not perfect, and the
indices are made up of lots of individual stocks, so anything
goes, but at the macro level, you could ask "Has my outlook on
the economy gotten better or worse, compared with last month at
Frankly, from where I sit, not much has changed. We still
have only one way to get out of the mess - printing money,
otherwise while a good Depression would punish the wicked
(rather than making them whole and sticking you & me with the
tab, there's that little matter of social unrest, soup lines,
and upset people who might be inclined toward revolutionary
thinking and acting; such as replacing the lobbyist controlled
Congress with an outfit that could be recalled and which
would listen to those of us back home when we call and
express our opinions on this or that.
There's still a larger tab coming, though, because we're likely
to see tougher gun control, the
corporate takeover of farming will be pushed along with HR 875,
Pelosi is pushing for free-money for a couple of Bay Area papers
which, hey! Didn't they endorse her? Why is it folks
in Denver weren't recipients when the Rocky Mountain News was in
At least there, the ex-staffers are launching a web site and
getting with the change.
Saw an email yesterday (or was it a web site) that said
something to the effect that 20-years ago the majority of the
nation's media was owned by 50 companies. Today
we're down to just six.
Oh, and if you're retired military (thank you for serving), we
are also reading how the
Obama administration is about to follow in the footsteps of the
crooked Clinton administration and pull a 'change the deal' on
some types of medical coverage for service-related disabilities
and injuries. As I see it, when someone gets a service
related injury, you don't ever change the terms and
conditions that were in place at the time of injury; that's just
dishonest, but further evidence I suppose of just how far the
lobbyists have gotten in their checkbook coup in Washington.
Let's not go there (although I am seriously pissed about this
kind of 'change'.)
OK, let's go there, then. Is it just me, or since we've had a
minor rally in this bear market is the timing purely
coincidental that the slap at the military shows up as soon as
there's a chance they won't be necessary to maintain domestic
order should a Depression show up in earnest? I'm not
talking about the rumors that folks re-upping for another
term are being asked if they would turn guns on Americans, or
the fine work of
Oath Keepers. I'm talking about changing deal terms
for people who have paid some of freedom's highest prices.
I guess, since the Obama administration has hired so many
Clintonistas, it shouldn't come as a surprise: Huge
Senator Charles Grassley is so upset about the AIG bonus
situation that he's quoted as saying that
AIG execs should 'quit or suicide'. Grassley's got one
thing right: there is no "culture of shame and acceptances of
personal responsibility" to be seen in any of this so far.
What's ahead for the market, then? I called my friend
Robin Landry to find out if yesterday's drop from a session high
just 11-points from his 'last-line-in-the-sand rally target of
7,404 was enough to turn him into a believer.
George. My proprietary indicators, when I look at the
60-minute chart say the downside is ready to resume, but
ideally, we should see a couple of days right around this
level before there's a big move, which would let my
90-minute chart and another indicator catch up to
line up with the notion that right in here would be a good
resting point in the rally while the market makes up its mind
where to go next.
it means stability: There's a whole pile of data coming,
and I suppose we could start with this morning Producer Price
Index figures just released by the Labor Department:
Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.1 percent
in February, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.
This rise followed a 0.8-percent increase in January and a
1.9-percent decline in December. At the earlier stages of
processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate
goods decreased 0.9 percent in February after falling 0.7
percent in the previous month, and the index for crude
materials declined 4.5 percent following a 2.9-percent
decrease in January."
PPI numbers, the futures were looking like a pop of 14 points,
as I keep an eye on 7,404.
thing that may weigh on the market is tomorrow's release
Consumer Prices and then the Fed decision, but that last is a
no-brainer. Fed's now in the box I've been telling you
would show up a long time ago, and like Japan, we're now locked
into a zero-percent paradigm and once there, recovery gets to be
difficult. The answer, of course, is to get money into
hands of consumers, so while we wait the two years till the
mislabeled 'stimulus' does something, don't be surprised if
conditions deteriorate, layoffs continues, and oh yeah, a few
million more folks lose their homes.
think it can happen? Wrong.
this morning that "US Banks supper 149 percent rise in band
loans: New data on each of 8,000 banks shows breath of
So is there any good news in all this?
Oh...er...sure: Like no one but me seems to be calling it
a Depression yet. Although I've been working on Scoville
Hamlin's 1930's book (more for Peoplenomics readers this
weekend) and what
the "Menace of Overproduction" is all about.
A new study out of the University of Wisconsin/Milwaukee says
is undergoing a natural climate change. Gosh,
better discredit this one quick, or that carbon credit hysteria
might die down. This as
hurricanes set a new low. Quick...whip up some fear!
Hide the heat island data! World's ending!
Government must expand power! Give me a frigging break.
Natural outgrowth of excess consumption of resources and
amazingly, Hamlin and others warned of precisely this kind of
environmental damage in the last depression.
Those who don't learn the lessons of history are abound to
Swallowing It's Tail Department
You ever ask yourself "If a snake started to eat itself, but
chowing down on its own tail, would it in the end (LOL) consume
itself? This is the core visual that always comes to mind
when dealing with circular references in spreadsheets or
It's also especially useful when reading the remarks of other
economics realists, who it's fashionable to call 'doomsters',
such as the headline from CNBC:
"Treasurys are a
disaster waiting to happen': Dr. Doom."
Got time for a little thought experiment to internalize Faber's
correct assertion? Try this one.
Grab all the money out of the kid's Monopoly set. and get a
friend to help you. Lend all the Monopoly money to your
assistant at 10% interest. Have them cut down a tree, make
more paper, and print up additional Monopoly money to pay you
Now repeat this process for as long as you can while asking "How
long before we run out of trees to cut down?"
That's the core issue with the Fed buying Treasurys. Oh,
and as soon as that happens, what's China's incentive to ever
buy another? Move over Mugabe! He come Tim and Ben.
Partiers, Missing Media
As one might suppose, made ever-so-convenient by the
concentration of media power,
there's not been much coverage (nearly zilch) of the more than
150 'tea parties' being planned or held already around the
nation. Quick, look surprised.
Please also recall that at some point, someone in government
will figure out as I have, that just like the FCC seized radio
control in the last Depression, so too, internet regulation and
perhaps licensure will come with this one. Remember where
you read it first.
In the latest round of headlines, Israel's
"IDF Chief: Strike on Iran concrete option" says ynet.
And, the JPost has this curious headline: British Prime
Iran must talk to the American's."
The problem I have with Brown is how can anyone take him
seriously on matters related to the future? I mean after
selling of Britains gold on the cheap and now amidst reports he
might sell off the Royal Mint to private holders in TPTB (the
PowersThatBe)? Would you listen to someone like
that? I mean especially if you were sitting on
approximately 11% of the world's proven oil reserves?
Right.....so move along, nothing to be seen here...
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Worries in the Dark of Night
Had a thought-provoking email from a reader that's worth
This should be titled 'lessons
learned'. Last night at supper, the power went out and
pretty much for major parts of three suburbs here. I lite
some candles and finished our candle light supper. Then when
down to the basement and turned on the inverter and back up
stairs to turn on the lights and the tv to see what was
going on. All of my neighbors houses were totally dark.
After a while and no power
coming back on my girlfriend and I decided to go for a walk
to check things out. A few houses had now gotten candles
lite and maybe some flashlights. There was one house with a
generator running and lights on. It stood out like a sore
thumb. And then there was old black suburban with some crash
damage just sitting in the dark where it should not of been
and it was full of guys just sitting there.
I decided it was not a good idea
to go for a walk in my friendly neighborhood when there is
no power. And it is a real good idea to get back home. I do
not know if it is better to be the only house in the
neighborhood with the lights on or just be another dark
house among hundreds of others and just be as invisible as
possible. Maybe I will really need to get some blackout
curtains. I do like to have my lights on - it makes me feel
secure - it also means my communications work and I can keep
up to news of what is happening around me. That is very very
Power came back on after three
hours or so but I spent the night thinking and now must get
to work. Do you think it is better to have all my lights on
or be just another dark house among hundreds of others."
Oh this is
easy: Blend end. Leave your lights out. You
ought to have LED flashlights galore, night vision, and so
forth. Heck, having lights on means two things; I
have power and if I have that, think what else I may have.
to read up on rhodopsin. Since the
rhodopsin/visual purple will have been bleached out of your
eyes, so if you need to operate in darkness, whoever it 'out
there' has a 30-minute headstart on getting acclimated.
Consider a red filter for your flashlights (reduces visual
purple bleaching, which is why it's the color of choice
for night fighters.
gets me to a ne thing to ponder. I've heard some
incidental reports that the reason the military's new
generations of thermal imagery (amber displays) and most night
vision uses green, is because red-colored displays apparently
can trigger perceptions of other-worldly creatures and
So, if you
have any first-hand knowledge/experience seeing scary things
while using red night vision gear, please pass it along.
Doing some data collecting in this (admittedly somewhat arcane)
area. Seems to be somehow linked to triggering DMT (N,N-dimethyltryptamine)
production, which in turn could trigger hallucinations
or transport to other dimension of thought/reality, depending
on your take on Graham Hancock's book Supernatural: Meetings with the Ancient Teachers of Mankind.
which brings me around to the concept of a series of flashing
red LED's plus eye movement (or different light positions) as a
way to trigger DMT experiences, but that's not something to be
taken lightly (poor pun intended) while the lights are off in
your neighborhood. Might want to have someone around if
you decide to go on one of these trips. There's a reasons
to have a good shaman handy.
people asked by Monday's UrbanSurvival report hadn't been
updated. Well, you doof, it was! I (duffus primus)
had merely overlooked changing the date on the report. Bad
me, silly you. Or is it....
and save items to email@example.com
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snip and save section ---
Monday March 16, 2009
That Was Fun
Why already this morning I'm seeing reports that "Obama
Upbeat on G-20" as finance conductors will meet again next
month. Of course, there was the usual hoopla from this
weekend's meetings about the need to 'do more' and work toward a
sustainable recovery. Unfortunately, I haven't seen anyone
propose much more than running the printing presses to make up
more money, and if there are losses, push them off onto the
public, which continues to be unrepresented by a Congress which
ignored overwhelming public opposition to bankster bailouts
despite the Will of the People. But, of course, it's all
to be expected.
And speaking of which, AIG listed its counterparties last night,
who benefitted from your taxpayer generosity, pledged despite
your objections - shame on you. Turns out one of the
French bank Societe Generale received $11.9 billion while
Deutsche Bank got $11.8 billion and Barclays took $8.5 billion
off the table. Damn, you're generous.
The opposition to just printing up 'money' to deal the bankers a
painless way past the crisis continues building. A
sharp-eyed reader noted that the State of Maryland is
considering House Joint Resolution 5:
the United States Congress to restore honest money
backed by silver and gold in accordance with the
requirements of the United States Constitution, phase out
Federal Reserve notes, and return to the free market banking
practices that the Founding Fathers codified in the United
States Constitution. "
Of course, it hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell. Or,
as I often remind myself: "Who needs tanks if they have
Ben Bernanke is already claiming that a new depression has been
averted, I'm not so sure.
Time will tell, of course...but keeping bankers in business
doesn't solve the problem of consumer saturation, as folks in
Detroit are finding out. And Japan's economy has been in
decline since 1989, so no, I'll just watch the numbers a bit
longer. Still, we may be seeing the....
"World mints report soaring demand for gold coins." So
gold is down $5 this morning and off its all-time high by
7% or so? Why sure...makes perfect sense in the new world
Wanna Buy a Mint?
The UK press reporting the Royal Mint may go on the block.
What is it with Gordon Brown and gold, anyway?
Even though the market futures are pointing to a higher open,
that 7,404 Dow level looks pretty daunting technically.
Robin Landry sent out a client note today which says:
market rally last week has everyone wondering if the bottom
is in. While it is possible , my analysis still says the
market has one more decline to a lower low. The target
remains the 6000 area +- 200 points. Once the low is in, the
rally should be a good one retracing at least 38%, and more
likely 50%, of the decline from the Oct 2007 high. I read
about analysts calling this the bottom, and that a new bull
market is at hand. I don't know what Kool-Aid they are
drinking but there is absolutely no evidence that I can find
in my work to suggest that is even a remote possibility.
Let's all pray I am wrong. I still believe that when the
rally is over, that will be the last chance to sell anything
before the market declines to levels no one believes is
possible. I will keep you updated as conditions warrant."
So, I'm sitting on the sidelines in cash, or what little there's
left after I go get another root canal today. But
again, gold oughta be rising just because of all the gold going
into my mouth lately if for no other reason.
The Fed's Empire State index, which was expected to be down -32
was actually down 38.2% this morning.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions
for New York manufacturers deteriorated significantly in
March. The general business conditions index fell to a
fresh low of -38.2. The new orders and shipments indexes
also dropped sharply to new record lows, and the inventories
index declined to its lowest level since 2001. The indexes
for both prices paid and prices received remained negative
for a fourth consecutive month. Employment indexes remained
close to their recent lows. Future indexes were somewhat
higher than in February, but the six-month outlook continued
to be very subdued, with capital spending and technology
spending indexes falling to record lows. "
Dow futures still pointing up, for reasons that defy sense.
Fed's Capacity Utilization Report comes out later this morning.
Just to get Monday off on the right foot (of the left one if you
prefer) here's a dandy economics thought experiment:
Say you have 10 factories and 2 of them are not doing any
business, so you survey all the plants and calculate that
they are making goods at 80% of capacity.
Now, permanently close (as in tear down) those two factories so
they no longer count. Next, export all the jobs from 3
more plants and close them too, so you only have five plants of
the original 10 left.
Then let's further suppose demand is collapsing too, such that
of the remaining plants are operating at only 90% of capacity.
What do the statistics show? Capacity utilization is up
10% from 80% to 90%.
This is why I keep Tums and el Don next to my computer.
One, or t'other, is needed most mornings.
A Rose By
Any Other Name, Department
The headlines that "Guantanamo
inmates no longer 'enemy combatants" seems another fine
example of the kind of 'change' we're getting out of Washington
these days. Gee, I can hardly wait till the next obvious
step: We'll have to start calling the guards concierges?
And then? Hell, let's give 'em airline miles, too!
Far right apparently as I read how "The
far right is on the march again: the rise of fascism in Austria."
Is it something in their water or the mountain air?
Birthplace of Hitler and all...
New gadgets to zap electronics - and humans - coming from
the defense industry, says a Wired report..
Chemtrails Going Mainstream
After a long slow start, the linguistics work at
www.halfpasthuman.com notes that things like this May 2008
becomes one of the first countries to admit Chemtrails Ops"
and the nearly 30,000 YouTube hits may be leading to
international media presence of this as an issue before
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Pick A Number, Any Number
It occurred to me a while that sometimes the news develops a
kind of droning sameness about it. Determined not to
become stale, I observed that a lot of the news stories about
involve counting. I mean, at the core, the current
financial mess, just to use an example, would not be much of a
big deal if the numbers associated with it were in the hundreds,
or even thousands. But, when the word "trillion" enters
the picture, then you start to pay attention.
Or, do we? The Detroit Free Press carried a recent piece "Trillion:
It's the new billion". You can also see how a
particular number is doing by looking at how it's handled on the
internet. The word trillion was at first capitalized
and italicized, then it was downgraded to italicized only,
and here lately, it's lost the italics and its capital, but then
haven't we all? There were
almost 77-thousand news hits in the Google news search tool
for 'trillion' this morning.
That pales in comparison to the approximately
628-thousand references to billion.
While you're off multiplying 628-thousand times one billion so
you can compare it with 77-thousand times one trillion - just to
see if journalists are all pointing toward some number range or
other, I'll be off going the other way.
I'll just pull some number out of the air...let's say 9...and go
do a search on that:
My point is what?
Just that humans are creatures of habit and one set of habits we
all develop over time is how we 'sample' the news environment -
and other domains of life, too. Editors and news
directors, and the other denizens of mediaspace don't have any
particular claim on deciding which news is important versus
which news is not. They occasionally think so but
it's not the case. What's really going on mostly is they
have their own sampling mechanisms and if those happen to line
up with the public's tastes, then fine.
Not that it's a BIG deal, but there are other ways to slice and
dice 'news' (or anything else) beyond the norms of society.
Today I'm showing you how to slice-by-number. We could
just as easily have picked a number like 21 ("Forever
21 stores shine amid slide").
After you've had some fun with slicing by number, you can slice
by colors. At a simple level, the major colors were
assigned to ordinate directions of the compass, but then again,
I assume you knew the relationship or earth, air, fire, and
water to the colors red, green, yellow, and blue from your
studies of magic, feng shui, or just out
reading John Gage's book on color and meaning, right?
Not to make too big a point of it, but if you search the color
'green' in the news headlines this morning, you'll come up with
a story out of Boston that "Exuberant
and green-garbed crowds partake in parade" which reminds me
to wear green tomorrow for it's St. Patrick's day.
Once you've worked through colors, you can get to work on
compass directions as well as the various shades of up and down.
578-thousand hits for 'north', 375-thousand for 'east',
570-thousand for 'south', and 478-thousand for 'west'.
million references for up versus
1.2 million for down makes me wonder if there's an
undercurrent of optimism, since more seems to be going 'up' than
'down'. Or, is 'up' bad...like taxes going up?
Done with that? More to go as you'll want to try filtering
for the temperatures (cold, frozen, etc., not the numbers since
we've done that) and then there's a whole spectrum of emotions
Love returns 284,200 news items in the Google News tool,
Hate offers only 39,807.
Gee. Maybe there's hope for us yet.
A Peoplenomics subscriber who enjoyed this week's 'Top-10
Questions Answered" report sent this one:
How brain dead do readers have to be not to get the puns,
double entendres, dark (bordering on gallows) humor and your
profound grasp of the obvious? Oh well, your writing and
information serve as a great dot-connector/F1 key in these
times of “change”.. oh the irony.. Keep up the great work,
us “preppers” will muddle thru and hopefully make a better
tribe after the feces has cleared the fan."
Gallows humor, eh? Well, hang around, there's more where
that came from...
Another subscriber did not enjoy my using common texting
abbreviations to annotate my weekly chart series:
"PLEASE drop the horrible texting stuff!!!!!!!"
the dentist...something that's become a bit of a drill lately...
Send snip and save items, PayPal contributions, critiques, a
side order of spaghetti, and a new Ferrari to
--- end snip and save section ---
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for
'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on
the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in
the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept
several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet
Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely,
it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers
and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as
you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our
charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it
shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with
the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close
replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you
were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929
deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the
truth be told.