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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday,
April 4, 2009
07:55 CDT
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Two More Work Days Till MondayWhile it will it be hard to do as well this weekend for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers after last week's bulls-eye report "Me Bullish?" I'll be delving into the timing of house buying and a number of other things in this weekend's report. This comes for several reasons, not the least of which is that I'm eyeing some additional property which adjoins our which is presently available plus several readers have requested it. In addition, subscribers will get details on how to download the 'alpha' (first release) of the new crop circle spinning software which is presently in development at www.halfpasthuman.com and over on www.sourceforge.net. --- Financially, this has been one hell of a fine rally week. If you look at historical numbers here, you can see the Dow moved from a Monday intraday low of 7,406 to close over 8,000 Friday: That has got to make some folks who scaled into the long side quite happy. How often have we seen a 600-point run from low to high in a single week, lately?
On the other hand, that doesn't mean the economy is out of the woods - in fact, best I can figure the woods will be taking over late next fall, and here's why: First off, the unemployment rate (as I told you on Friday) soared to 8.5%. But can you believe that number? Well, as our other sharp-penciled reader figures, the numbers being reported just don't add up:
Yep, it does indeed stretch the credibility of the govbers (government numbers) when you look at things that way, doesn't it?
This unemployment number is particularly frightening for young people. Those who would, in a previous age, have been in peak family formation time in their 20's and 30's are finding it hard to keep a job. In fact, my eldest daughter Denise who lives in Seattle, lost her job more than a month ago and hasn't been able to find any work yet, so her rent is being paid by the National Bank of Dad - which Mssrs Bernanke and Geithner have somehow managed to overlook when handing out fistfuls of dough to more conventionally chartered banks. And insurance companies. And Carmakers. (Me? Bitter?) I expect I will be buying her car (a Smart Car) soon, to get her out from under those payments.
Our Family Unemployment Rate is presently 33.3%. If you're over 60 and have kids, the FUR is the number of jobless kids you know divided by the total number of kids you know - it'd be interesting to calculate that number to see how the 'sniff test' goes.
This is causing young people to go to new extreme lengths to land a gig, in fact now "Jobless make TV ads pitching themselves for work" in some markets. And the outsourcing is not slowing, either. Just learned recently that my neighbor's daughter, a sharp SQL (and other) languages operations type for a big Bank in America (if'n you get the idea) up in Dallas has been warned. Where are those jobs going? Apparently some to Singapore, I hear. --- That gets me to one of the fundamental problems of the Internet. I've been saying since I predicted the popping of the Internet stock bubble ("Death by Dot Coms: When Barriers to Entry Fall, Sept. 1999") that one of the unintended consequences of the net is that it makes cheap overseas labor available here in America at almost unrestricted rates. Which is why most customer services jobs are in India (and elsewhere) it seems.
Corporations don't make money by producing a superior product, anymore. Since there are so few barriers to entry, most make money by exploiting wage rate differentials between high and low income countries. Want to get FFR (*filthy frigging rich)? Find a really high income country and a really low income country and then find some job category that can be effectively outsourced - especially electronically - to the low pay country. That's the future for you, and yes, it sucks mightily. Did I mention that few beyond Lou Dobbs seem willing to state the obvious on this stuff?
Oh, and speaking of media, the "Boston Globe unions says the NY Times wants $20-million cut" from the bean town paper's expense line and is threatening shutdown if they don't get it. This as the sunset of newspapering continues. Despite the lobbying in Congress to save newspapers, it's obvious that thanks to the internet, the barriers to entry for New Media are about zilch. I haven't figured out the costs to get started here lately, but even a sites like mine, running top-notch equipment and software, and serving around 60-thousand page views a day, are ridiculously cheap, compared with clear cutting trees and getting ink on everyone's hands.
Fundamental change has been Kindled, so to speak. Watch your butt, Rupert, Jeff's coming to get you, too... --- Sorry to read about that Binghamton New York shooting on Friday that left 14 dead, one of which was the gunman. No, he wasn't in the US as a foreign worker; he'd come from Vietnam about 14-years ago and had recently been laid off by IBM, according to this report.
But it does cause me to wonder how much of the modern world's stress is due, at some underlying level, by the economic migration of humans. As I see it, there was a time when humans migrated to find food, climate and so forth, and moving over large distances was something of a rarity. Native Americans didn't, prior to the European exploiters showing up, didn't do a lot of coast-to-coast adventuring, or popping down to Polynesian to pick up cheap textiles or outsource IT. People lived in relatively small geographical areas and such.
You take Europe, where there's been huge immigration from other regions, and the question comes up once in a while - especially when there's large scale rioting and civil strife like the kind that rocked France a while back - how much immigration is too much? --- Drugs and money are of course huge drivers in the world's economy today. Can't help but notice that musician "Carlos Santana wishes Obama would legalize pot" and even Time Magazine makes a good case "Why legalizing Marijuana Makes Sense."
Of course, drug wars are where the money is. Whether you're talking about Afghanistan which is all about heroin/opium, of "Mexico's brutal drug war" the narco dollars gotta keep flowing, and the booze industry protected, so no, I don't hold much hope for meaningful change; only more talk. --- Speaking of talk and symbolism, you see how the wrap up of the NATO summit was heavily into symbolism?
You
have to be very conscious of symbols, and if you missed John
Fraim's 2003 book "Battle of Symbols: Global Dynamics of
Advertising, Entertainment and Media" you can occasionally find
one for $40 (and up) but it lays out how the programming of the
population via symbols works. But you can also get a lot of the
underlying concepts by reading Patrick Dunn's "Magic, Power, Language, Symbol: A Magician's Exploration of Linguistics ---- Having read a fair bit about symbolism and its relationship to power I suppose explains why I've got such a keen interest in the spinning of crop circles, which I mentioned in a special update on Friday. But, not everyone sees the connection.
Well, of course I only do such things when I am in states where my medical condition allows it, LOL. Not in Texas where the biggest growth industry is locking people up. And even there, by the way, outsourcing is underway. Word has it that one of the big commercial jail management outfit is about to bring in a bunch of people from Nigeria (!!!) on work visas so they can get cheaper jailers...can you believe that? In Texas fer cryin' out loud! Like we don't have enough unemployed people already? OMG people, WTF is going on? --- Point taken about credibility, but only with many grains of salt. I can't count the number of times that people who might otherwise have made meaningful contributions to the forward advancement of humans didn't do so because they were worried about 'their credibility' or were pressured into group-think by peer review. The minute a person starts thinking in anything other than the real-deal, genuine NO LIMITS mode, then you're in your own prison and the odds of you ever being totally free are gone.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but this is exactly what the PowersThatBe use to control people. Which is why there's such a link-up between religion and the PTB and between them and advertising outfits. People who don't regularly challenge every single aspect of their thinking are jailed just are sure as concertina wire. 'ceptin of course that it's worn inconspicuously inside the head.
So while I take the friendly words of caution, I also have received emails like this one from people who are well experienced in what goes on inside of people's heads:
A couple of people have asked why this can't be done using off-the-shelf Flash software. The answer? Cliff has been working with how computers do screen writing for a very long time, since he ran into timing issues with this Vortex Reader software. While it may seem like Flash is OK, the way video writes really work, is that timing of writes moves around a fair bit. The computer clock speed may be off, there may be a fraction of a second pause here or there because of some other process completing.
Normally, when you are doing things like screen writes as a leisurely 30-frames per second, you wouldn't care. But with Vortex and other high performance video software, you need to have a monitor that will handle extreme speeds and even things like persistence of phosphors, or how fast the LCD can track, comes into play. Which is why there are real hardcore design issues involved.
In some ways, this project might do better on an old W98 machine with a good CRT display, it'd be easier from a screen-write standpoint, for sure...in fact, my favorite version of Vortex is still the one that will glom web pages to display and which has the direct video bios writes (think Windows 95/98 here). But, that's sometimes how progress works, eh? --- Is it likely that we'll find some kind of deeply embedded series of messages with the 'spin-the-crop-circles' software? Probably not. But history is full of odd characters who didn't value peer review or were willing to look under statistically improbable rocks in their quest for knowledge. Nikola Tesla comes to mind, and if you don't know the story about how he essentially invented alternating current (but it was George Westinghouse who exploited it) you've missed some fine reading.
Will UrbanSurvival somehow lose it's focus from this project? Nope. But is the market in rally mode for a month or two now (mid May anyways)? Probably. Am I still waiting for an entry point, having been a little slow to pull the trigger on the long side? Yep. Will the market comes down on Monday? Ask me Tuesday...but a pullback next week is something I'm expecting since it would give me a nice long side entry. ---- This being Saturday, and with three local teenagers coming over to work on fencing and garden and shop projects, it's time to hit the shower and make a run to Lowes for parts and wood, pick up gas for the tiller, and fill up the BBQ propane. Then it'll be grease the tractor and do as much as I can over the course of the day.
Thank heaven for weekends, huh? Just two more working days 'til Monday.
Me Bullish? Where to Play the 401(k) GameShort term - yes. Long term - no. But there's a bit of time in between now and next fall's problems. In fact, as I see it, there's a pretty good case to be made that if the market doesn't collapse this coming week for about a one to 1.5 week decline into the week before Easter (which wouldn't surprise me - with a huge rally thereafter) the odds are increasing that the US stock market is about to put on a doozy of a rally which should make it through the 9,500 area and perhaps even as far as 11,200+. And a few of the global markets could be even better. This week let's focus on some things to consider with your 401(k). Not investment advice, just things to noodle and ruminate on as you try to hang on to 'what's left' of your life savings.
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"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday April 3, 2009 Urgent Update Crop Circle Breakthrough? Swirly Thing Alert I don't normally post "bulletins" on my web site, but the world may be about to be changed - forever - in ways we can not yet predict. This is a story about crop circles. So the first thing to do is read up on them over at Wikipedia.
The second thing you need to do is hit YouTube or Google Video and look at some video of what happens when crop circles are spun. Various shapes and patterns begin to emerge. Here's a good one to start with.
Now, here are the latest developments: An international ad hoc group of programmers and my friend Cliff over at www.halfpasthuman.com have been working on the crop circles and spinning them at various frame rates. Cliff happens to have the graphics expertise to do some alpha testing of frame/spinning software and he's got a group of programmers in Germany and elsewhere who are collaborating on the project. He's been up for 24-hours or so, and is reporting some amazing if not world changing results.
What seems to occur is that when spun around various center points different information is emerging from from crop circles. His assistant in the predictive linguistics project is a fellow we call Igor - a Fortune 100 level IT guy. Ever since he has known him, Cliff reports that Igor has been chewing his mustache. Since he's got the most 'eye time' on spinning crop circles, its curious to note that Igor is no longer chewing his moustache.
In Europe, where another member of the loosely connected team is spinning other circles, the researcher reported dropping into something like an alpha-state trance for a couple of hours and, upon emerging from it, he reported that his arthritis of many years has stopped hurting.
Another says if a black and white image is spun, colors emerge.
So here's what's going on right now: This ad hoc team of programmers is working on software which will be put into the public domain if it works as expected. The software will not only allow the spinning of the crop circle images at various frame rates (where we already have seen different information appear) but in addition, eventually it will provide for flexibility in setting the axis point. So, in other words, you'll be able to spin crop circles in various directions.
At SourceForge.net you can look in on the Linux work ongoing. The project there is "Crop Circle Symbol Engine".
We're not sure where this is going to lead, but it could be one of those 'chance' events that could lead to a real breakthrough in how humans work. Or, later today Igor could go nuts and have to be locked up...we just don't know. Worries about the Zombie factor may be why we're testing on Igor...
But what we do know for now is that some unexpected results are occurring, and software is in development to push out on the envelope a bit, and we want to get the word out as to what's happening and that this will all end up (rather quickly) FREE and in the public domain.
Frankly, we don't know if this is some kind of transdimensional/intergalactic mental invasion technique, or whether we've just stumbled over the intergalactic/transdimensional encyclopedia that will jump humans ahead to who new states of awareness and health. Just too early to tell.
But, since Cliff has the video manipulation background, having patented the Vortex Reader technology, and since we've been working on the predictive linguistics technology (a/k/a the 'web bot project') for nearly 10-years together, it seems, as one of the researchers in Europe noted, that Cliff & Igor may be playing the role of Jody Foster in the movie "Contact".
Or, as Cliff puts it: "We may have stumbled on our own Manhattan Project here..."
We'll keep you posted. But we may have just cracked the cover of "What Comes Next 101".
Splintered States The first headline to strike my bloodshot pair of eyes this morning (due to allergies to tractoring/brush hogging the south 16, not el Don, which would have been the preferred cause) was the headline that "One in 10 Americans gets help to buy food." The story then went on to say that more than 2.9-million folks right here in the Republic of Texas get help - a good thing as I see it. Nationally the average benefit works out to something like $112 per person, although in California the benefits are about to take a major jump upward - going up 13.6% - and curiously, California has fewer people on food stamps than does Texas, with only 2.5 million receiving help.
Since tax time is just around the corner, this all gets me to wondering about the proper 'role of the dole'. Obviously, helping people who are hungry, laid off, homeless and living in tents or cars is the right thing to do. But, how far up the food chain does it go?
The G20 yesterday decided to ante up a trillion dollars (plus or minus a Honda) to bail out the international financial system, on the notion that without a healthy international economy, the whole kit and caboodle falls apart. That may, or may not be so, depending on who you talk to. However, since I'm an economic Neanderthal (and no slight to Neanderthals intended) and I'm stuck on why AIG has to keep sucking up money while Lehman was flushed. I keep looking for some sign of a sound currency - anywhere it seems - because the cause of all our woes seems to be the paper that shows up so often down at the root of all evil. --- The Unemployment Report for March is out...and as expected, it took another major move upward:
Those numbers, serious as they are and the highest since 1983, understate the real situation. The harsh reality begins to get a little more accurately reflected in the U-6 number which is the broader measure of labor underutilization which I call the PhD's flipping burgers and IT managers stocking store shelves index climbed to 16.2% last month. But even further, there's no telling how bad things would really be if the workforce number was limited and the discouraged and underground economy numbers were cranked into the equation. I've got real problems with telephone-based surveys since 1) almost everyone has a cell phone and 2) numbers change all the time, but that's a discussion we don't have time for. --- Tent cities continue to spring up around the country. In California, where the governator opened up state fair grounds, Sacramento tent city residents are saying they won't be moved from their present location. This all sets up the ugly prospect of something we've been eyeing in the HalfPastHuman predictive linguistics for a while to become very real: the potential for a showdown between "authorities" and the homeless, since as KCRA reports "Some at 'tent city' unhappy with Cal Expo site" and "Sacramento homeless camp expected to be shut down."
It's all so disappointing to watch: Bankers getting more dole than common folks (must save the world, don'tcha know), the PTB may be setting up a "hurt them to help them" showdown in a lot of places, and meantime the second biggest headline on Goggle's News site this morning when I looked was "Madonna loses Malawi adoption bid."
WTF people? --- President Obama is off to Strasbourg for NATO meetings; and as a result that city has gone into lockdown/fortress mode.
North Korea is readying it's latest rocket for launch despite not-so-thinly-veiled threats from the US that 'ya'll better not do that'.
And as if all that isn't enough, seems Cambodia and Thailand are exchanging potshots across their border. Just what the world needs about now: another war. --- I had a conversation last night with Michael Panzner, whose latest book "When Giants Fall" was pimped in yesterday's report. Here's a very interesting bit of trivia about his book, which I don't think he'd mind my sharing with you: Panzner's original title for it was "Splintered States". Publisher's title is fine and all, but linguistically I can't help feeling that 'splintered' is a much hotter word than "fall" when it comes to action verbs.
Anyway, it's an absolutely dandy description of what's going on in the world right now: Things are splintering almost everywhere you look. In a period when we all ought to be coming together, we're all splintering; there's a global retribing going on as affinity groups that didn't exist are popping up all over the place to fight (check as many as you want here) ( ) crimes committed in finance by banksters ( ) foreclosures ( ) religious extremists and lots of other issues that received only miniscule attention 10 or 20-years back.
So that's the first point in this morning's report: As a 'framing concept' think 'splintered states' (courtesy of Panzner) and throw in a bunch of terra entity change to come (from he ALTA reports) and you'll have the right serving dish for the rest of the day's news.
"NWO Emerging" It's against this framing that Britain's Gordon Brown says the "New World Order is emerging."
Brown, apparently doesn't read statistics about the UK's economy, reports of tent cities, or the emergent sense of rebelliousness globally very well. Might I suggest it's a New World Disorder that's really going on?
Sound Thinking Worried about the ice caps melting, waters rising 16-200 feet? Think that might be a bummer?
Well, have we ever got a hot new framing concept here: I call it preemptive deniability. Cool concept, huh? Want an example? (The right answer is "Yes!").
"Oil not to blame for climate change: OPEC".
Repeat after me: Preemptive deniability.
Trillions and Trillions Here's a simple math problem for you:
We start with "House approves $3.6 trillion budget blueprint."
Next we take the US GDP at $13.84 trillion and whack maybe 10% off that thanks to the recession-turning-to-depression which we'll call, oh, about $12.46 trillion.
Then we divide the budget by my estimated GDP figure and we come up with 28.9% of GDP going to government. Federal government. Don't forget to add your state and local taxes (property tax and sales taxes) on top of that.
Now I pop open Excel and enter 1/1/2009 in cell A1.
Then I enter =365*.289 in A2. (Excel says 105.485 when enter is pressed.)
In cell A3: =A1+A2 which says federal taxes and promises to pay mean working until 4/16/2009 to pay for federal spending. Not even touching the federal deficit.
Yikes. And it's even later when you consider the number of people who are unemployed..but we don't need to go down that rabbit hole.
Markets Despite the jobs report the market may be able to scratch out a gain today. But can it last? A buddy who trades in Europe (Luxembourg) sends this interesting observation:
Remind me to call Robin Landry and ask him if this little pop is due for a pullback next week...futures point to a soft opening, but like one website says: "Water, water Everywhere; Fluoride in every drop." Yup, might help explain things.
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Home Construction Weekend's almost here, so let's talk about something fun, for a change: Elaine and I are having a dandy time working on the house, since we decided that we'd actually go whole-hog and theme each of the rooms. The kitchen is slowly becoming an Asian looking kitchen, the dining room more formal Chinese, while the laundry room has been transformed into a South Seas/Trader Vic's kind of motif. Complete with tiki's and bamboo furniture and a mockup of a grass shack. Very cool. --- Most people are pretty limited in their thinking about their home environment. Don't know why that is, maybe most folks don't have much imagination.
Our guestroom, for example, has been done in a kind of eclectic Egyptian decor. Complete with lots of pyramid-style painting all over the walls. This weekend, I'll be starting on the entrance to the room, which will be a door disguised as a mummy box.
The 'western room' will follow, and the plan there is to paint a wall with a western plains kind of scene, then build in a foot or two from that a railing and posts that will hold up a false ceiling of rough-hewn wood, such that visually it will seem like you're sitting on the veranda of a farmhouse off in the middle of the square states somewhere. Rough western rocking chairs, on a cherry colored engineered floor.
Eventually, we'll get around to the master bedroom, where a more expansive indoor diorama will follow a tropical theme - and I've picked up a fair bit of caning off eBay so I can construct the various bits and pieces of what needs to happen to carry it off.
Most interior designers are not so extreme in their approach to things, but 'theme' a room to me seems like it ought to be much more about making mind-bending/eye popping visual candy with the outcome being something like a home ala Disney or Hollywood set designer.
I got started on this kind of thinking about 35-years ago when a friend by the name of Art decided to do his house in a similar free-spirited manner. Hatch covers on walls moved to reveal hidden doors, and what seemed like a refrigerator had been hollowed out and was itself a door into another part of the house.
So, if you've happen to have gotten a little off-the-beaten-path on your home decorating, and especially if you've gone the indoor diorama route, please send along pictures of your handiwork so that we may all share. And, one of these days, when it's all together (if ever) I will put up a picture or two...
With the "Return of the $100,000 house" there's no reason to confine yourself. Go look at some of the amazing dioramas in museums - like the Upper Nile scene at the American Museum of Natural History...and picture having that as your rec room. Or, check out the ship built inside the Royal BC Museum up in Victoria. And scroll down through all the pics.
In the land of George, thinking that buying a new overstuffed chair constitutes home decorating just doesn't cut it. Building an environment, well that is a whole other deal.
Seems to me that would be a great niche - a productive one - for more Americans to get into. Certainly adds value to your living space.
Polynesian is an easy one (be mindful of fire safety in your design, of course) because you can pick up a lot of tiki and bamboo on eBay. Inspired by pictures of some Trader Vic's locations, like this one in Boston, you can almost hear the wind in the palm trees. Come to think of it, a hidden CD player could be added to supply even that...
Just something I've been meaning to mention. A little creativity, some scraps and this and that, and you can cobble up something with a heartland theme (think Cracker Barrel restaurant) or Pirates of the Caribbean (think Disney), or Trader Vic's or a museum diorama.
Just amazes the hell out of me how many people live in eggshell painted boxes when there's so much fun to be hand exercising a little creativity. --- Speaking of home remodeling and such, did you catch this? "Florida: Drywall has material that can emit corrosive gas." Remind me to send that to my cousin who works are a US drywall plant up in Seattle. --- Send snip and save items, a fine bottle of wine, and any leftover machine tools to george@ure.net, member FDIC. No? OK, just kidding about that last part. --- end snip and save section ---
Thursday, April 2, 2009 Loose "Change" AP Writer Calvin Woodward's got it right in "PROMISES PROMISES: Obama tax pledge up in smoke..."
Welcome to the world of non-change change. We elect someone on the promise of bringing change and instead get higher taxes, an administration chock-full of ex-Clintonistas, a crappy economy and moving more troops to obscure places. So, where's the change? I mean besides trying to disarm Americans and erase what's left of the tattered Constitution that the Patriot Acts didn't didn't already dismember on the republicorps' watch?
Oh, I'm sorry: Yes, there is change. I apologize. Now the government can ask for the head-on-a platter of a CEO if a big company doesn't toe the mark. We haven't seen the end of that yet, or so it seems from reading the CBS piece on Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's vision of a planned economy. Want to know how it all turns out this fall? Ever read a history of the Soviet Union.? --- Meantime, it doesn't help, of course that the republicorps are doing their damnedest to scuttle any would-be economic recovery, since they were able to foist a steaming lump-o-crap economy off on the new kids (the Obama crew less Clintonistas). In fact, it sez right here -- and this comes from Karl Rove so you know it must be true (sound of el Don being poured) that "The president is 'keeping score'" referring to his former boss.
And the evils of partisanship were further underscored as former veep-Dick "Cheney emerges from cave to attack Obama". Ah, such behavior provides plenty of visual content for our resident cartoon genius Rebecca Price...
And so are we...for change. But, the more things 'change' the more they stay the same, huh?
Gee 20 One "demonstrator dies and 87 arrested following clashes with police" in the London where the G20 is trying to scheme their way out of global mass consumption paradigm crackup by coming up with a finer kind of paper.
One Brazilian official has spilt (sic) the beans that the G20 will raise funding of the International Monetary Fund by $1-trillion. Guess who's gonna be writing that check?
Now, why do you suppose the IMF needs a trillion dollars? Well, a Wikipedia entry here oughta give you a clue:
So if you're thinking to yourself "Are you saying mean this is all just to buy more old paradigm defending?" Hell yeah, fool! Here, take a green star for your efforts. --- And, as of this morning, it just got cheaper for the IMF and World Bank to make "loans" to developing countries, in return for which corporations seem to end up in control of public utilities and waterworks and such, as the ECB cut interest rates by 0.25%. And Trichet says it could go lower. yee-haw! Load up on free financial for third world assets! --- Lesson Learnt? The PTB has learned that the time to buy (or seize) assets is when blood is running in the streets. And unfortunately that's not a figure of speech anymore, is it?
Thanks to the rickety time machine project, I've enjoyed a pretty clear view of where things are headed here in the Land Of the... for almost 9-years, and for longer thanks to a ton of study in the field of longwave economics. But you don't need a time machine...just an eye for good books will get you a leg up on the rest of the lemmings & sheep running about.
Not often I will come right out and pimp a book, but the arrival recently of Michael Panzner's newest (which he forgot to autograph!!!) prompts me to come right out and endorse it because it will help you navigate through the crapstorm of 'change' going on all about.
Since this morning's headline provide such a fine backdrop, here's how the inside flap begins:
So yup,
run right over to Amazon and get a copy of
When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the
American Era
The books only shortfall? I haven't found the reference to UrbanSurvival or Peoplenomics yet...but I'm still reading...
Implausible Deniability Department Remember Maurice Greenberg? "AIG Problem not his fault says Greenberg: report". Lemme see....Greenberg left AIG in 2005 was it? And AIG-FP (financial products) unit was set up when? 1987 was it? And wasn't Greenberg ultimately Joseph Cassano's boss? --- Speaking of which, have you ever looked at the Famous Drexel Alumni list? The Bond Dude has been muttering about the current econopickle: "From the people who brought you junk bonds..." Shhhh...even if this is history rhyming on the South Seas Bubble....
Auto Sales What? Suck.
NY Times notices hope. Do they put fluoride in NYC's water?
Unemployment?
Markets? Rally. See previous question about fluoridated water in NYC.
Fueling Controversy North Korea is reportedly fueling its rocket that they're about to test, much to the consternation of the Japan (and American) military types watching things.
Springtime Weather A look at the radar over our part of East Texas at this hour shows a lot of rain coming down; so much so in fact that our satellite backup system is intermittent due to microwave absorption by the super-soggy clouds a whizzin' by.
I see it's storming over in Atlanta this morning, too.
And in the really really deep South - as in Australia, they're up to their armpits and higher in flooding as the flip side of hell seems to be swimming lessons. When someplace is getting nearly 12-inches of rain in six hours, it puts even our East Texas gully-washers to shame. Not that we might not exaggerate a bit about East Texas rains, mind you. Probably wouldn't be the first time that a Texas claim of 12 inches was claimed...er.... --- Speaking of flooding and such: You saw where "Fargo resisted FEMA recommendation to evacuate"? I can't help but wonder whether FEMA might have had a little more credibility if the KatRita disasters (not to mention illegal arms seizures) hadn't happened? Takes a while to get over such imagery, I expect.
North Dakota is thanking South Dakota for help and Interstate 29 is reopened.
Not Yet Department Despite a number of web sites which have popped up around the net proposing the 'end of the world' is coming from a solar 'kill shot', a sip or two of el Don features some reflection on the headline "Deep Solar Minimum" out of NASA.
All of which is not to say that the remote viewers who see such stuff in our future won't be right at some point in the future. It's just that the 11-year solar cycle watching ham radio operator in my (who follows this stuff because it's what drives HF radio propagation) figures that if 2008 was the solar minima, then we have 5 1/2 years until the peak of solar activity, and even then, statistically speaking, the big flares happen on the backside of the cycle --0 after the peak. So, no, I am not putting a large hole in the ground, or looking for caves deep underground like the movie "Knowing" talked about. I may be wrong, but 2014 seems a lot more likely than 2012.
On the other hand, no one gets out of life alive, anyway so WTF.
Light's Out "CBS to flip the switch on "Guiding Light" which has been running for 72-years according to Guinness Book.
With more than 15-thousand back episodes (in fact almost 16,000) imagine how much hard drive space that would take up? No wonder we've had to develop cheap terabyte USB drives, huh?
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Coping: Humor is the Best Medicine You may notice, if you come to this site very often, that I try to take a tongue-in-cheek, never too serious about most things approach to the daily news. Sure, there's a lot of bad news out and about, but a life lived without laughter is hardly worth the ride. So I've spent a fair bit of time trying to figure out what's funny in writing. Ever since my junior year of high school, I think it was, where Mr. Staley's English class worked on the drivers of humor and how to incorporate them into one's writing. Things like identification, embarrassment, and so forth seem to add to humor, although here lately, I've taken a liking to absurdity as a major driver of humor; but this is no doubt fueled by reading corporate 10-k's, Treasury's public debt to the penny, and the flow of funds of the United States from the Fed.
I point all this out because Bill Cosby is about to receive the Mark Twain humor prize. I admire both greatly.
Twain's best, as I recall it, was when he described how he had given up his big-city ways and become the editor of a newspaper in a farming community. In "How I edited an agricultural paper once" he uses absurdity in the same way I endeavor to report economic items:
Absurdity comes through in Cosby's work, too. Here's a YouTube of Cosby's classic sketch about "Noah"
So it is that over the longer term, the humor of absurdity seems to wear best. The so-called 'shock" of toilet-mouthed humor doesn't last because while the "ef" word may have been a shocker to hear in a polite American society of the 1950's, I can't hardly to to the local Wal-Mart without hearing someone using the word almost completely unconsciously into their cell phone. Not that people swear more (or less) at Wal-Mart; it's just that I don't often get into such close proximity of others any more often than I have to.
Absurdity, on the other hand, and fantasy or improbable situations, plays well across time. --- Most folks don't realize the degree to which they 'program' themselves via their communications inputs. But, it shouldn't surprise anyone to find that video gamers might be more momentarily (or longer) prone to violence after playing GTA, Doom, or Castle Wolfenstein. I won't kid you: Instead of taking the 930, "Porsche Need for Speed" blows off a lot of energy and I haven't gotten a speeding ticket from my computer -- yet. Similarly, I find doing the stormy landing of a 747 in San Francisco in Microsoft Flight Simulator somehow makes the odd airplane flight a little more tolerable.
But mostly, I'm becoming anti-TV sharing to anti-media for two reasons: First, I'm more interested in collecting knowledge about things. YouTube has some remarkable lectures and content. Secondly, I really appreciate originality. So much of television is formulaic. --- But times are changing, and probably always will. (Pardon the Yogi Berra-ism). Twain (whose works you can find here) made his mark using words. Cosby was a radio and television product.
Looking ahead (assuming society hangs together) I expect that at some point, a video game will win such a prestigious award. I'd even go so far as to nominate "Leisure Suit Larry" for the award. Some of the street/gallows humor in GTA is pretty good, too. If you missed it, turn up the radio.
Back to my simple point here: Congrats to Cosby. And thank you.
This is Sick Department "Austin ER's got 2,678 visits from 9 people over 6 years." This as a "Task force seeking ways to divert non-emergencies away from emergency rooms." Here's my contribution: Proof of citizenship, maybe?
Rising Tire Sizes Had an interesting conversation with the fellow who runs the local performance wheel & tire emporium here in Palestine, TX Wednesday. Worth a couple of bullet points:
The trip, tires, and balancing underscored something for me: Globalists have really hosed over America. We can't be very independent from China when strategic manufacturing (like tires) has been almost entirely exported. It doesn't take a genius in military strategic planning to figure out the implications for future foreign policy, does it?
Wednesday April you-know-what Day, 2009 How The World Ends, and Other Items This being April First (and you should go "Aha!" about here), it's a fine time to be pondering the bigger questions of life in order to see if the present behavior of humans recall constitutes 'progress' or, whether we're going down the track of previous great civilizations toward collapse, which as Joseph Tainter notes, tends to happen when the marginal return on additional work falls negative. Or, a little more simplified: When the "harder we work, the behinder we get" becomes more than just a cutesy sign near someone's desk who happens to have a 1970's sense of humor.
I've been writing about the Second Great Depression since before it happened and now that we're in it, it's still kinda hard to recognize despite clues hidden in plain sight all over the place. "Manufacturing probably sank as U.S. slump hit 70-year record" informs one headline this morning.
Between my lawyer/consigliore and The Bond Dude, a picture emerges of how we got here: It begins with the removal of usury laws and the landmark supreme court decisions which said that out of state credit card operations couldn't be held to in-state usury laws. And since the financial lobby has been so powerful in DC a national usury law wasn't (and isn't) going to happen. So once you get state usury laws busted, making 'financial instruments' evolves into the biggest industry in America and when it finally fills up every possible niche, things collapse just as they are continuing to do even now.
Kinda makes you wonder about the quality of leadership that took us onto this slaughterhouse chute that feeds into the 'bankers kill us all' outcome. Now, you'd think that recent events would lead to serious criticism and replacement of some of the folks who got us into this pickle. Oh, you'll see it in the headlines like the one about Senate Banking chair Christopher "Dodd’s AIG Ties, Cash Shortage Threaten Senate Re-Election Bid" but I have come to distrust the voters (or is it voting machines?) in Connecticut, since the voters there have returned him in the past.
Apparently Connecticut voters don't view stories like "Dodd Panel OKs Bill To End Predatory Credit Card Practices" with the same cynicism I do, in that I wonder if this isn't little more than a fund-raising tactic - much as Dodd's you-gotta-be-kidding presidential campaign raised thousands upon thousands from AIG execs. But this morning's report shouldn't be read as a slam of the 'Teflon Dodd' or the lack of clarity on the part of Connecticut voters. Maybe it's just the fluoride at work. --- But speaking of 'slipping it to...' there's another headline to inspect before we get into the really nasty stuff of the day: "U.S. plans to ease GM into bankruptcy: report" catches my eye. Could it be that working stiffs in the auto industry don't mean as much to America's future as financial lobbyists and their pet bailouts? Naw. Certainly not in America, land of the brave, home of the free, at least till usury laws were busted and financing layers upon layers of paper became more profitable than R&D, new products, and plant & equipment. All done to the tune of "Fight Protectionism!" which might have put workers of the world on a more even purchasing power parity basis.
And speaking of purchasing power, am I the only one who sees the irony in that the Third World and developing countries are going to be leading the global recovery? Yep, sez so right here in this Wall Street Journal report: World economy is going to drop 1.7% this year by in high income countries (like you know where) the drop is 2.9% for the year.
Be a good little sheep...move along, nothing to see here. But that's the game for the multi-nationals: Make enough elsewhere and let the standard of living float down more in the phat countries (which used to include the US) and do so under the guise of 'protecting' someone other than multinational P&L's. You see at the top of the heap the deck is being stacked: and "WTO Lamy: G20 Must Be Wary Of "Low-Intensity Protectionism".
What scares the hell out of the offshore tax haven gnomes is that a "Big slide in global trade looms over G-20 meeting" and that the existing (highly profitable) model for corpgov must be maintained at all costs, which is how the G20 meetings tomorrow are being set up. While it's nice that "Obama urges greater economic action" at the international level, I'm sorry to report I've feel a wave of 'Who needs 'em?" washing over me.
If 'saving the global economy' means one more job outsourced to India, one more foreign car company kicking our asses, or a continuation of the 6-thousand miles long trip of apples to America, 6-thousand miles for South American beef, then maybe...and only saying maybe we have some serious reengineering of the old way of doing things so that the whole planet can prosper a little more.
The biggest problem the world faces today from an economics perspective is that there's not enough real work being done. The world is at a kind of super saturation where if we don't need to make more of anything else (need another cell phone?) we have to come up with a proxy for employment to keep money flowing through the system - because without that money flow, the world world grinds to a halt just like sand does when poured into a transmission.
I'm a free market guy...up to a point. That point is when someone comes up with ideas that undermine if not destroy the Constitution and the concept of America. So pardon me if I lobby for protectionism - and an end to outsourcing. Pardon me if I can't believe that Texas residents end up eating Argentine beef. And please overlook my skepticism of a global currency or its bastard son, the global tax.
Depressions really are painful but until we get on with tilling under the old paradigm which is failing in spectacular fashion and plant a new sustainable, purchasing parity regime in its place, the world is going to continue to experience a decline as the paper-hangers meeting in London desperately try to paper over their folly so that the uber rich can profit, the paradigm preserved, and regular folks of the world exploited for the sake of those at the very top.
What's more, it's like to work for a while, linguistics seem to say. Summer of hell and all, but the rest of the melt in the fall seems in the cards. Jokes on us. I'm starting a new campaign for a November Fools Day in the first week of November. Watch closely...
Yo-Yo Markets for Dumb-Dumb Investors Let me see here: Hmmm...Dow was up 86 yesterday and futures down about 88 when I looked this morning. Can you say "thrashing around looking for direction"? Or, howzabout "looking to decisive G20 action"? Or the most honest answer of all which might be: "Churning".
But Seriously Who can take government seriously when states like Iowa kick "Hundreds of Iowans out of public hearing" to change the state's tax laws. That's OK, because Iowa has a marvelous marketing opportunity to change its name from IOWA to IOU.
If California doesn't trademark it first, 'natch.
Even More Seriously Oh-oh....another White House HR boner as Health and Human Services nominee Kathleen Sebelius has to correct three years of tax returns and send in another $7,000.
How many times do the WH HR folks botch up the screening? Is is that they don't remember to ask, or is it the democorps just don't have that much talent floating around? How about exec auto guys like Rock Wagoner and Lee Iacocca for some of them real jobs?
And Most Serious "State try to tap high earners" says a report in the WSJ this morning, and making mention of a higher income tax on the rich. But of course, the point is missed that the really, really, really rich take their excess comp offshore as stock options which don't become taxable income until they are cashed in, and that, boys and firls is why there are 50,000 offshore accounts in Switzerland, just to pick a starting point. And then we move on to the Channel Islands, Grand Cayman, Grand Turk, the ABC islands and.....
OMG, how frigging stoopid do they think we are? And what about the uber rich who buy tax-free bonds for an income stream; how you gonna tax that?
Jobs with Uncle You see this? "CIA launches recruitment drive on internet and TV"? m Wonder if they give hiring preference to folks who can forge Niger uranium documents?
Demons of Iran Department "US must end Iran nuke drive, or Israel may attack, PM warns". News flash: Iran is a sovereign country.
How's This for Torture? "Miss Universe says had "lot of fun" in Guantanamo" Look, but don't handle the merchandise...what could be worse torture than this?
Controlled Media "Fla. Fox affiliate refuses to air Osbournes show." Ozzy Osbourne too profane? Too much adult content? I thought the Puritans landed over on the Atlantic side....
Uncontrolled Media "TV News Reporter Arrested After Hitting NYPD Horse".
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Coping: Whole Body Scanning A story on Drudge this morning goes to the idea that whole body scanning of airline passengers is being tested in Salt Lake City. KSL says "Site has airline passengers worried about privacy." Well, yeah.
Show me a technology that has been abused in one way or the other and we can discuss this further. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. --- Also in our 'towering government' file is a report that "surveillance towers planned for Detroit, Buffalo." --- I wasn't just-a-kiddin' when I made the claim that 9/11 launched a whole new segment of the economy - that of 'security'.
Have you been watching what has been going on, from a software development standpoint? Remember in the 1980's (late) and 1990's when there was a kick upward in software development as ERP (enterprise resource planning) software came along? It's still being rolled out, too, by companies like PeopleSoft/Oracle and SAP...not to mention all the open source and not to ignore Microsoft's multiply flavored Dynamics and such.
So now look at an analog in the security industry: GE today has rolled out it's latest version of "Facility Commander Wnx V7.5" which features...
Anyway, just a passing note here that it's only a matter of time until someone up the government foodchain somewhere says the GE "Hey! You know that "Facility Commander" product? Can you scale that if we give you the server platform?"
Oh, sure, it'll take some time and I can't even begin to enumerate the middleware nightmares, LOL, but eventually, one can conceptualize a global wide-ranging security platform which will operate something like the ERP platforms used by colleges and universities that interface to the US Department of Ed's financial aid system.
Only this time it will be something like son/further iteration of Facility Commander with a secure interface off to the government NCIC (national crime information center) systems and similar, so instead of processing student loans effectively, the system could look at a face recognition scan of someone coming into the lobby of a building, ID it through NCIC as you having not paid a speeding ticket, and have an officer come arrest you at your meeting on the 37th floor which is the only place your control badge will let you go.
No kidding, smart elevator systems are already being deployed - have been since 2004.
Like I say, there are plenty of middleware/security issues to be worked through, but being a marketing guy, I can see it all coming because as I used to say to the endless irritation of software engineers I've worked with: "It's only code, fer cryin' out loud!".
In the meantime, keep your clothes on. At least in Salt Lake City.
Oh...and don't forget to remember the "old days" when cavities used to be searched only by dentists...
Tuesday March 31, 2009 Emotions & Markets: Waiting for my Entry Point Time to cowboy-up, get really steely-eyed, and make some good investment decisions. Like Baron Rothschild, I think it was, said "Buy while there's blood in the streets" and I'm smelling opportunity close at hand. No money on the table yet, but I'm ready to buy chips. --- You may recall that last December around the middle of the month, I explained what my outlook was -- in very general terms -- for 2009. As I outlined it then, I was expecting a market low to be put in by around the beginning of March, and thereafter, we ought to see a rally to perhaps July or so, and then it would be time to 'load the boat' on the short side, because there would be a lot more scary times to come on this roller-coaster ride which is the financial markets.
Despite being a little late in getting here (but the markets do run on their own clock), we're getting mightily close to the point where I'm tempted to throw in a few bucks on the long side, because despite the wealth of bad news, the market 'feels' to me like it could do a decent run up; something I outlined in boring detail with charts and all for Peoplenomics subscribers last weekend. So, over the next couple of days, I'll be moving a little cash into the commodity account, where I've been eyeing the price action in oil and the precious metals, and then some into the stock trading account where I've got my eye on some interesting options. Not pulling the trigger on any of these yet, but I'm sort of wandering back to the dice table, if'n you know what I mean. --- I talked briefly with Robin Landry, whose take on markets has been better than most I've tracked, and he's watching the Dow 7,200 and 7,100 levels closely, along with S&P 745. He got his managed accounts out of short positions last Monday, before that 500 point mother-of-a-rally got really rolling, and he's eyeing much the same thing. If you look over at the S&P 500 chart on Yahoo Finance, you can see that the the March 9 S&P 676 would need to be broken before a drop down to new lows could happen (technically, which is to say tea-leaf-wise).
Sure, there's one wave count/technical perspective that says such a break could happen, but it's feeling like something of a long-shot, despite worrisome headlines like "Big slide in global trade looms over G-20 meeting" and other "world's gonna end' reports. Given that the Dow has lost more than half its value since the 2007 highs, a massive rally - something toward 10,000 or beyond, is becoming due.
Not that I'm in any particular hurry for it, because while the rally's going to be sweet - and pour a little money into my piggybank, it also means that by next November (or even mid October), people will be playing the game of financial duck & cover again, only this time, we'll be dropping 7-thousand points from a much lower diving board, such that we could hit Dow 3,000 (or worse) in early 2010. So, if you think things have been exciting here lately, you ain't seen nothin' yet. But for now, I've got a smile on my face, and positions to consider. Not everyone lost money during the Great Depression before, and there's no reason to do so this time, as long as the broad brush of history is kept in mind. --- This morning, in a few minutes from my usual posting time) we will get the consumer confidence numbers. This is a key for the rally to 'get legs' because if the reading is anywhere from neutral on up, that will mean the consumer is either ready to start spending again. But, if it's really bad, it could spin the markets back toward the downside.
Not that I care. Construction spending tomorrow, and then Thursday, and the all-important unemployment report Friday all have the potential to drive the markets lower. Which would set up my entry point next week sometime, just prior to Good Friday. Anyway, that's my thinking for now, this isn't investment advice, and I should consider joining Gamblers Anonymous, I suppose. Scratch tickets, one armed bandits, dice tables, or options; it's all along the same line. But, then again, so's banking lately... --- One reason I'm holding onto gold, I mean besides the obvious inflation that will be unleashed by the maniacal spending out of Washington lately, is that as the G-20 meets in London, there's actually discussion that Gold may come back into some kind of monetary role. Gold doesn't have to be the only standard, but even partial convertibility would likely firm up prices. Longer term, I figure gold's bound to double from here, and silver's got to play catch-up along the way, too. So that's why I am considering gold call options for my commodity account. --- I assume that you've been watching the price of gasoline? I'm expecting that as we get closer to the summer driving season, the price of petroleum will begin to climb. It's already moving as "Crude oil rises, set for biggest monthly increase since June" is one of the stories on Bloomberg this morning. Very short term, oil's under $50 in some markets this morning, but that's to be expected and a stock market low next week roughly coinciding with a small pullback in oil prices would be just fine by me.
Even though the One-Worlders may not get their global currency agenda shoved through the G-20 meeting (yet), even a modest global recovery (on happy-talk, if nothing else) has the potential to move oil back to the $80 level, or maybe higher. --- The tensions in the country, if this were a sociology class, make a very interesting study. "Workers say "Obama treated autos worse than Wall Street" says an AP report.
What's more, the government's "Substance Abuse & Mental Health Services Administration" has opening a new website feature called "Getting through tough economic times". Replete with\
This website is about the best indicator I can think of, when it comes to timing my return to a bullish stance. You may remember Ure Axiom 528?
Just so. Call it a confirming indicator. A bounce off 7,200, or even 7,100 on the Dow next Wednesday could trigger my buying rampage. --- "OECD says govt policies will avert Depression". Yeah, yeah, sure. I'll grant you that as the pimping of 'good times' here through early summer gets rolling, it may seem that way, but as the time monks note, this fall's going to be ugly...very ugly indeed. I'll be printing while the sun shines.
Rally Driver? On Thursday the Financial Accounting Standards Board will decide how much lunacy is safe in the mark-to-market rules. As a story headlines here: "Mark-to-Market Lobby Buoys Bank Profits 20% as FASB May Say Yes."
Don'tcha love it? When you start off learning accounting, it's all this must be this way, and thus and so. And then along comes new rules which are exceptions to common sense.
Too obvious? Apparently.
Gun Grab John Kerry is pushing for tighter gun control. And law enforcement types were telling Kerry and others holding hearings in El Paso that Mexico is not in danger of becoming a failed state.
New Electrics "World's most powerful laser has the energy of a hydrogen bomb" says a report. Use it to spice up your next boring PowerPoint...
Conficker Tomorrow That's conficker not cornflaker...Email:
One More Fear North Korea may have two nukes. Two more than Iran? I wonder....
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Coping: Shutting Down the Time Machine - Briefly It's been my pleasure to have access to the 'rickety time machine' up at www.halfpasthuman.com, but every once in a while, Cliff (and I) need to take some time to catch up on personal agenda items. So, the next report (following the present 1209 ALTA report which is now in process) will be the last one for a couple of three months, or so.
Cliff needs to take some time and make some changes. You may remember, back in October, we elected to keep the data collecting spiders and the lexicon (=language database) unchanged so that we could capture a major - dramatic - shift coming through modelspace as the events of October 8 +/- a few days cross the boundary from 'my ain't that an interesting collection of dots in the 'markets entity' to become "OMFG what a financial disaster...yee gads!"
As a result, not only did Cliff get to capture a whole language shift in process, but the analysis he's been doing over the past few months has added to important insights into how the higher math on such things work out.
While some of the 'tuning' of the lexicon can be done simply (e.g. automated), there will inevitably turn out to be some classes of words which will just have to be done by hand. That's because when new uses for a word appear, it doesn't just change the emotive or carry values for a particular use, it ads a whole new definition, which in turn has to be mapped, tested, and so forth.
For a more thorough discussion of 'predicate calculus/ logic quantifiers' and the manipulation of semiotic equations, you might start here. Or, just sit back and wait while he works through stuff. In the meantime, folks who have subscribed to the current (and next) data run will likely get occasional emails/updates through the mid-June to late August period, when it's envisioned the work will be ongoing. A note from Cliff explains it better:
That gets us to the zero point energy work, where both Cliff and I have an interest. Since my consulting load is way down (thanks, economy!) I have a huge number of things I want to sort out and test, not to mention the kind of 'normal' stuff going on around the ranch.
My off economics/marketing to-do list, in case you're interested has this one:
The Perrigo generator device is interesting. Perrigo's insight into free energy (which you can read about at Robert Nelson's fine Rex Research website) has special interest to me because when you look at the AutoCad files of the design:
The multiple layers of wiring are reminiscent of some of the graphics which are reportedly associated with UFO's. And this all fits together how, you're wondering? Without spilling the beans too much, the core concept is that certain symbols (powerful stuff, symbols) may be able to drectly manipulate matter and energy. Heady stuff, huh?
Now, to be sure, Perrigo was reported to be a conman in local newspaper reports from the period, but because there's a chance he only (reportedly) hid batteries to power an electric car so he could continue his researches, it may deserve a second look. And is there something to be gained here? Oh yeah, you betcha! Go look up "crossed field antenna" on Wikipedia. Then remember what I told you a while back about what's in Maxwell's 1861 paper: That there's something roughly orthogonal to E (electric) and M (magnetic) waves that causes the watermelon shape of fields around bar magnets; Tapping into this orthogonal force is the objective of all this free-energy stuff.
Plus, as a side investigation, it would be very interesting to spend some time modeling antennas (for ham radio use) based on various occult 'power symbols' since I have never seen anyone actual say OK: Here's EZNEC and here are the results for xx ancient power symbols and how they should operate. We already know that certain antenna topologies have special properties (such as the fractal antenna), so why not do a little modeling and testing if anything shows promise? --- All of which takes what? Time. We may be able to peer through it a bit using Cliff's technology, but oh boy, we just can't make enough for our own consumption, so something's gotta give.
It goes without saying that we will post updates here if anything big/huge/actionable comes along in the tuning of the lexicon provided it is of use to the general public need/interest/and concern.
Self Profiling Notes A reader thinks I may be overdoing it a bit when Avira AntiVir spots script loading off web sites:
I've been using AntiVir for years and no, it seldom goes off, and when it does I pay attention.
And from Australia:
Problem we've got using the Oz-land data for the rickety time machine is we can't trust it now, not knowing what's being transposed/censored, if only in the test mode...damn science anyway...
Government Motors A reader of yesterday's article on Zil/GM sends this:
Didn't see any for sale on EBay Motors this morning, but found a postcard...
Cinnamon and Honey Reader note (and no, this is not to be taken as medical advice...discussion only!)
Why sure...speaking of which, given that a teaspoon of cinnamon and a dab of honey is one dosage level I'v been sent, I wonder how that would be with a dash of rum and some cream in it? Test for allergic reactions, talk to your doctor so I don't have to talk to my lawyer. Thanks.
Math Reader note about our give away money idea:
I am the People's Economist! $40 trillion and no unemployment and yada yada is still going to be cheaper than the cost of what comes next. Trust me. We're at what, $8-9 trillion and we haven't even started. Wait till this November when it occurs to everyone all at once "OMG we wasted everything we had in the way of financial bullets and it's still broken."
Drop it to half a million per person, cost is a push for sure and you get nearly the same outcome.
Monday March 30, 2009
What Next at What is "Zil" you're wondering through the Monday morning fog? Hit Wikipedia and you find:
I mention this because this is an example of a car & truck company run by government for a while. Which is worth reading up on if you want to get a handle on where things are going in Detroit, the way I have it figured, since the government has told General Motors that it only has 60-days to come up with a better bailout plan, but in the meantime, CEO of GM since 2000, Rick Wagoner is o-u-t.
The Washington Post headlines this morning that the "White House questions the viability of GM, Chrysler" but what I'm not reading about is the necessary plan to come up with another industry to replace GM and Chrysler, which promises to carve out another huge hole in our already fragile-to-the-point-of-failing economy.
Chrysler may end up a business unit of Fiat, since as the WSJ noted this morning "Fiat now in driver's seat in Chrysler acquisition."
True, a government task force says that "...GM can bounce back with changes" but do you believe the government's panel?
Part of the transformation that's underway globally is that people are starting to change some long-established consumer habits. Evidence comes from reports that sales of good used cars are really taking off are just one example. But if you look around the net, you can find loads of places to get a remanufactured engine, and given a new transmission, set of bearings, and fresh brakes, if the car's body is in good shape, why buy new? Need a new engine for that Dodge Caravan? Costs less than $2,000 for most of 'em and even if you pay $500 to swap out the engine, guess what's cheaper than a new car? --- I mention Zil this morning as something of a benchmark. (You can visit their website here, BTW.)
The question I'm asking is whether the US-style socialism will fail where the Soviet/Russia version seems to have succeeded? In case you missed the Russian Automotive Industry Forum a couple of weeks back in Moscow, read this: Wait a minute: Sounds like Russia's auto industry is outperforming the US makers. Who'da thought?
Emptying Washington Reports are that president Obama will be taking an entourage of 500 with him when he heads to the G-20 summit. Surely, they could send Elaine and me tickets...who'd notice? --- The Mail Online story "Five arrested in G20 'bomb plot' as London goes into lockdown for world leaders" may or may not be worth clicking, since the site triggers my antivirus warning that "contains recognition pattern of the HTML/infected.WebPage.gen HTML script virus... but here's the link if you're not worried...
As I explained to Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend, I am almost to the point of bullish on the markets, expecting a tradable low before Easter, but there's a lot more to it than that.
This morning the futures plain suck with a drop of 150-200 on the Dow likely at the open and with consumer confidence (or lack thereof) due tomorrow, and the a bunch of numbers including the unemployment rate coming out as the week wears on, not much reason to be partying.
If the auto plans being rejected and the coming numbers/bummers aren't enough targets to blame, you could also throw in the G-20 which is losing steam.
Still not done with the blame game? How about "Output dives at Japan factories, car plants" then?
Rocket Rolls/Out to Launch II That long-rumored North Korean rocket is getting ready for launch. The US will have a couple of destroyers monitoring things. But reports China's press, unless the NK rocket heads for Honolulu, it won't be shot down.
Freezing in Fargo First floods, now a new winter storm. Was it something in the community karma, or something?
Eyes in the Skies Top Eye View has picked up a GSA contract to put UAV's on the border with Mexico. --- Anyone working on the fence? I keep running into stories and press releases that make me wonder whether the objective along the border is not security so much as economic stimulus... --- Here: I sometimes read through 10-K filings, like the one for SAIC out this morning that says (in part):
Their total order backlog is up 12.14% YoY. Something to ponder... --- Then we read how "DHS signals policy changes ahead for immigration raids." For now raids delayed...which makes no sense to me. Maybe the decision makers live too far from the border and the drug war?
Puffin' Tax'n Price of smokes going up...fed tax hit goes from 39-cents to $1.01 a pack
Speaking of Heart Attacks You see where hurricane "Katrina blamed for surge in heart attacks"? Quick send me $6-million so I can study whether female named hurricanes cause more or less stress than male-named hurricanes!
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Coping: What Goes Around, In Your Ear Something the time monks up at HalfPastHuman run into with some frequency is the 'circular nature' of time. In science fiction, the notion was for many years that time was a line and it started way back down the timeline in some primordial soup and it moves along toward some nearly infinite future when the sun goes supernova and anything left on earth will be toast; not that it's a worry for us, since we'll be dust long before then.
What's curious is the circular or repeating patterns in time, such that if you understand the cyclical nature just right, you can site back, enjoy (or not) what's coming.
Why explain this? Yeah it's early and all, but last week I got a couple of early 1980's MP3's from a reader who is a singer-songwriter. Now remember, these songs (which you can play as MP3's, are more than 20-years old. Yet, the content and lyrics could be plucked out of today's headlines...
So there you have it: If you missed California's tent cities in the 1980's, here's another chance to see 'em. Miss California's 1980's budget disaster? No sweat...we're brining it back, just for you; or is that IOU?
And the lesson is? How about "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome" just for starters? Insanity, California...hmmm...somehow it all fits.
Self-Profiling, Redux Zeus the Cat just forwarded me something from his email:
Several people sent me notes last week (Zeus got a few, also) telling me that I was being excessively worried about social networking mapping by government. "T'ain't in the IP addressing scheme, George" wrote one feller. I immediately sent him to SS7 school with the note that when the CO's of the government's CO surveillance want something, they can get it. Says so right here in Patriot Act X, which far as I can figure stripped away much of our Constitutionally guaranteed freedoms.
Cinnamon? Interesting health note from a reader:
Cinnamon, huh? Well, the usual disclaimers here: He ain't a doctor, there's no substitute for good medical care, yada, yada, but cinnamon seems like a good thing...wonder if we can grow it in this part of East Texas?
In response to folks that say "You just whine and never offer solutions", here's another example of solutions all over the place...this one from the St. Petersburg Times:
Send me an email if you need my mailing address, so I can get some of this simple solution, too!
No, I don't really expect anyone in Washington to listen. --- Speaking of Washington DC (district of corruption), you are hip to the reported irritation being felt by the YouTube videos critical of the Washington's latest antics? Check out the story "Obama Censorship of Thomas Paine?" over at KFMB's web site - and click the video if you have the bandwidth... --- If you're wondering why the name Global War on Terror is being dropped, its because anyone who criticizes the government and doesn't support the old paradigm (and God forbid actually does something about the next one - BOGSlife and responsible capitalism) is being marginalized and turned into scapegoats.
Just to underscore this a bit, you saw where U.K. Business secretary "Mandelson urges criticism of UK Banks to End to Spur Recovery." Like that'll fix it? LOL
I keep a special file for such stories; I call it the 'Shoot the messenger" folder.
The University of Alabama's "Crimson White" has a headline this morning about "Dealing with undue criticism" and then goes on to say, in part:
While they offer some good examples, the flip side of it is that when people have seen (in many cases) half of their life savings tubed in the stock market, while they see bankers being bailed out and even getting phat bonuses, some of the regular folks are living in Tent Cities and being laid off, so try not to confuse the messengers with the message. Which gets me to this...
e-Justice "On-line voting till decide punishment" in Wolverhampton, Walsall, and Sandwell. No, it's not exactly e-mobbing. All you get to do if you live in the area involved is nominate what community projects you'd like to see criminals do as part of their community service. The government's website says:
Interesting concept, huh? But it's only the start. I can foresee a time (sooner than you might think) when justice will be dispensed on the internet. Already, you can pay parking and traffic tickets online in places like New Jersey.
What are the limits? Interesting to think about: Computers with thumbprint and biometric security can ascertain whether the defendant in an online trial is the right person. It would be easy enough for even a beginner-level expert systems/knowledge engineer to build both expert prosecution and expert defense systems. You could hire the expert system via PayPal... and the judge and jurors could all do a NetMeeting or Skype....yeah, I like it. Anything where someone posts bail would seem to fit into this kind of system, wouldn't it?
Oh sure, there are a few holes in it. "Your honor, I wasn't able to attend my trial because my computer was in the midst of a new Service Pack update..." But, since everyone in the country is being defined as some kind of criminal at some level (even criminalizing being fat, comes to mind, not to mention the 1-million + on no-fly lists...) going online with the criminal-justice system just makes all kinds of sense. Click here to plead innocent. Click here for guilty. Click here to select an upper bunk, or here for lower. Click here for special meal requests...
Here's the latest from www.opencongress.org on the House bill which would let workers inside the District of Columbia work income tax free!
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
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The economy is on a windy mountain road and we're all in this
old bus with bad brakes, and it's raining and mudslides
threaten...helps to have a map. It's in the same league with
Robert Kaplan's the
