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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday,
April 18, 2009
16:20 CDT
This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics. For additional content, please subscribe. Content mirrored at my other site: www.independencejournal.com,
Urgent Update Yes! Cliff and I are on Scott Stevens' show "Amerika Now" at 9 PM Central/7 Pacific and 10 PM Eastern tonight.
Details here: http://gcnlive.com/ or on the show's site: http://radioamerikanow.com/
Sure Signs of Spring So here it is, 1.75 inches of rain and one day later, and I'm certain of it now...Spring is slowly but surely arriving here in East Texas. Admittedly, it's being a tad more lethargic up in Colorado where a late season snow storm has shut down road, and as far up as Wyoming. We only had a passing smattering of small pea-sized hail in this part of East Texas, but elsewhere there was plenty, not to mention really needed rainfall.
The closest 'official' weather station is up in Tyler, Texas, just up the road 11 hoops, 12 hollers, and a stretch of freeway (~40 miles). There, 1.16" fell on Friday, but we get a fair variance from place to place. --- Much as these items might prompt me to mention the arrival of Spring, they are not the real cause. Nossir, what prompts my observation is that I woke up this morning with a bug bite causing the left part of my jaw to swell up, and a second one just down from my lip. That's all the evidence I really needed to conclude Spring is here. Well, Benadryl and coffee and the swelling will go down. But does Universe let it go at that? Nope.
As I was taking my first sip of coffee this morning, I noticed something was out of place...yes...yes...that's it...Aha! Coffee doesn't usually have such texture to it, whereupon I graced my trash can with a half mouthful of coffee which contained a large bug who had gone swimming in my coffee, drowning apparently. I've asked Zeus the Cat to make funeral arraignments and eat his next of kin for me.
Elaine's also pretty sure that Spring in here. She had a near-miss with a Copperhead this week. Not a great big one. Just about 18" worth of the best camouflaged viper you ever didn't see while she was working on the fence line out west of the house. I recently invested in some tiny Cobra family radio service radios for just such events as an 'in case'. Also bought a pair for the neighbors so that we can keep in touch no matter what. While the two-meter (ham) radios are. much better for range, this little two-ways are smaller than a pack of Pall Malls, if you're old enough to remember...maybe a bit taller than a pack of Luckies.
Even the inbox is starting to remind me that Spring is here. A West Marine ad showed up promising me that "4-Day Bonus Buys Are Back". Over the 10-years I lived on my sailboat, I must have hit some marketing threshold, a sort of "boy, this is a hot one..." kinda thing. Almost makes me want to buy a bilge pump, or a head rebuild kit, and then have Elaine put me in the trunk of the car with them and all but the right wrenches, so I can remember why I moved off the boat in the first place. The six-figure job on the other coast had little to do with the decision; well, a little maybe. --- In case you hadn't noticed, the three most powerful product phrases around today are "MIL-SPEC", "marine grade" and "organic". Best I can tell, each adds between 5 and 50% to the price of whatever underlying product they happen to be attached to.
Bank Failure Scorecard As we've come to expect, FDIC's bank closure announcements came out late Friday after financial markets closed. This time around, two banks were closed, so if you were in the office "How Many Banks will Close This Week Pool" pay up accordingly.
Great Basin Bank of Elko, Nevada was shot-gun married to Nevada State Bank. And, American Sterling Bank of Sugar Creek, Missouri was marched up to the alter with Metcalf Bank of Lee's Summit, Missouri.
The whole list is now 25-banks closed/married off this year. Why, couple all these bank failures (I'm thinking 1.8/week for Q1) and the biggest real estate bankruptcy in US history this week, and my assertion that we're ALREADY IN THE SECOND DEPRESSION seems less lunacy and more like reality, doesn't it?
Or to make it a little more clear: We've had as many banks fail this year in the first 4½ months as were closed in all of 2008. And in 2007 only three banks failed. none in 2006.
Repeat after me: "trend."
Ahead of Schedule? Reports that "Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's nuclear sites" are making the rounds again today, although by the linguistics, that shouldn't be happening (in a large-scale way) until October. But, another way to read it is that Israel goes early and the late October/early November period refers to a coordinated Arab response and attack on Israel. We'll see.
The recent comments of SecDef Robert Gates cautioning against action (that I mentioned earlier this week) are one of the factors driving stories like "Obama's stance worries Israelis." --- Israel apparently will not cooperate with a UN Gaza war crimes inquiry. Quick: look surprised. --- Iran has tossed a journalist accused of being a spy for the US in the clink for eight. I'm betting she'll be out long before that, however. Good trading card, more'n likely.
New and Improved Nuclear War Speaking of nuking things, did you catch the article in Pravda this week about 'minimum nuclear deterrence'? Seems the Ruskies have figured that the US if more vulnerable to attack than Russia nowadays. But the main point? Seems the best use of force would be through an attack on the banking system, which in case you have been living under a rock, is doing a fine job of self-destructing lately.
A "Craigslist killer"? The Boston Herald.com site has an interesting story about how Boston's "Craigslist killer may have struck again..." Dangerous, there personals ads, seems.
Ad Wars German advertising, like the rest of Europe's, is a whole level up from the typical American fare that lately has mostly zilch in the way of creative and seems to invariable include the phrase "Tell your doctor..." So when an ad includes a sperm-cell likeness of Mao Zedong, and when people get upset about the story headlined "Mao sperm ad angers Chinese" I find myself asking "Is this a marketing boner (ahem, so to speak) or is this another instance of "anything for viral?"
Bad Week for Pirates All in all, the last week has been a bummer for folks of the Pirate stripe. No, I'm just not talking about The Pirate Bay founders getting jail time for file sharing, or the latest rewrites of how the SEALS freed that containership captain. No, I'm referring to the BBC report that "Dutch Forces free Pirate Captives." 20 freed by Dutch commandos? --- Well, off to work on this week's Peoplenomics report.... see you Monday...
Peoplenomics Guest Perspective: Stephen Swaim's Longwave Economic Model Although it may be easy to pass off my particular 'take' on the economy as a marketing man gone over-the-edge at times, it may surprise you to learn that there's a low key group of folks who have been working on the problem of long wave economic collapse since the mid 1990's when a bunch of us who 'live 10-minutes in the future' held serious discussions about it on a list server run by the University of Colorado. It was a great crowd: My deflationist friend Jas Jain was there, TheBondDube, and a few dozen others that contributed on a regular basis. One poster in particular, whose posts always made sense (i.e. I agreed with most of his positions), was a fellow by the name of Stephen Swaim. His 'day job', if you will, is he is an Ohio attorney specializing in tax litigation with an emphasis on real property tax issues. His undergrad work was at Miami University, then Washington & Lee ('78) for the law degree, and then his CPA certification in '82. I often refer to him as my 'consigliore' as his advice is almost always spot on. This week, I'm pleased to have convinced him to publicly reveal some of what we have spent hours and hours talking about: A long wave economic perspective that incorporates not just the formulaic approach of conventional economystics, but the practical view that "Ooops! Maybe cycles are real, too..." It's with some satisfaction I offer you the following... More For Subscribers Subscription Information Do Me a Favor? Send an email to everyone in your email contacts and tell them about this site. Click here for a tool that may help.
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday April 17, 2009 Warming Up To Cuba That "Raul Castro signals Thaw in US-Cuba relationship" is not really surprising. There's just too much money to be made on both sides by normalizing relationships. In case you hadn't noticed, capitalism is running out of new markets to expand into, and while Cuba isn't that big, it'd still be like adding a new state if we thaw things out enough. About 11.45 million people, it's population is about the size of Houston plus Dallas and whatever lies between 'em. Another way to look at it is geographical size: About half the size of Kansas.
Cuba has been in the US' 'penalty box' since the Cuban Missile crisis of 1961. As the CIA World Fact Book notes (in part):
So, it's a dandy opportunity for a little economic shot-in-the-arm. And "USA charter firms expect rise in Cuba travel traffic" which means hotels, perhaps casino's (again) car rental outfits, and the like won't be far behind.
What's more significant to the caffeine-enhanced cynical observer, though, is how the ideological differences between Washington and Havana have morphed over the years. Although here lately, I reckon Cuba has been a little more forthright in disclosure of its socialist leanings.
Marketing, Marketing As an anti-Thaksin Thai leader was shot up in an assassination attempt overnight, we have to wonder about the long-term stability of Thailand. --- Putting on my marketing consultant hat here, I can't help but notice that the "Thai cabinet puts tourism promotion atop national agenda."
Here's my new - free - positioning statement for the new ad campaign: "Thailand. Just say Phuket." Yeah, data's da one....we have a winner! Welcome to my 'perception is reality' practice...
Them Other Pirates Couldn't help but notice that the founders of The Pirate Bay, a high profile file-sharing site, have been sent to jail by Sweden for a year for breaking copyright laws.
Saying that the trial was just media play, The Pirate Bay site is still up and going strong as of byte time today. Got to admit the quip about legal decisions being leaked in advance, like just movies used to be, was pretty good.
Markets: Stressed Out? Wondering who's going to be the Big Loser in the federal government's banking stress tests coming out soon? The NY Post's Mark DeCambre's story this morning nominates Citigroup as the "Stress Test Dud." --- But wait! It's not all 'hell-served-for-breakfast' for the PR team at Citi: The company just turned in its best quarter since early 2007.
Don't you feel good underwriting a loss of only 18-cents? Makes me want to send even more money to Washington, LOL. Hell yeah! Let's buy more banks!
Oh sure the futures were about flat when I first looked, but turned up a tad. I expect a rousing end to the week. Now that Easter & Passover are past, we can get on with puffin' this baby up some more... --- Around 10 AM (Eastern, or as East Coasties figure it "Center of the Universe" time) the new consumer sentiment numbers will come out. Retailers are praying that the consumer mindset returns because things are looking really bad for their ilk. --- You saw where the largest U.S. real estate bankruptcy in history has gone down this week with second-largest US mall operator General Growth filing?
Nary a peep from MainStreamMedia, which mostly rehashing banker-driven hypnOsis that 'good times are just ahead, brother.' Well, sure they are, if you want to go on a diet. Or go on a permanent camping trip.
I much be touched thinking the largest-ever US real estate bankruptcy might indicate something a little more sinister...like the SECOND DEPRESSION IS HERE. Wonder if the Mogambo Guruy will share some of his meds with me...it is Friday, after all....and I'm still thinking Thailand...
OH! Speaking of Friday: Be sure and click here after the markets close today to see how many more banks get closed this week. It's the FDIC web site and a fine subject for a little betting pool in the office... Last week's number was 2, although I get confused whether that's a winning number or a losing number. Hmmm...coffee?
Mexican Shootout I'm reminded of the economic consequences of making a plant illegal again as I read how 16 people were killed in a firefight outside Acapulco between Mexican authorities and druggies. This was just ahead of president Obama's visit to the country.
Not to keep harping on the same old refrain, but you know if everyone could just grow their own high (weed and booze/beer/wine) most of the drug cartel's cash would dry up. Or, am I the only one to figure that out? And about the argument that marijuana leads to harder drugs, I'd counter, no, it leads to things like the war in Afghanistan over the harder stuff... --- Crime, you see, is an economic system of its own. I was discussing this just yesterday with one of Elaine's boys who's visiting. "Back in the time of king Richard, the hunting of wild game was made illegal for the commoners, but was unobstructed for the ruling class," he noted. "And it was from that series of wardens of game that the police powers of the monarchy took root and grew.." or words to that effect. Still is growing, too.
Ah, but how times have improved, what with modern technology and all. With hardly any game left, and way too many to poach so we have moved on to taxes, which get to the same thing: Power for the elites, eh? --- And speaking of taxes, good article to read over at WebCPA about how the "DOJ cracks down on tax-evading merchants."
Dancing Mountains Department Bad Sandwiches....I mean, earthquake activity in the Sandwich Islands region seems pretty decent the past couple of weeks. --- Likely a couple of dozen dead from quakes this morning in eastern Afghanistan, too.
Dancing Ideology Department A report from the DekbaFile headlines that US SecDef Robert Gates is totally opposed to a strike on Iran. So, I've got October 26th (plus or minus a week-10-days) circles based on the predictive linguistics of www.halfpasthuman.com. Figure it will take that long for Israel to come up with compelling evidence and around then they will strike with, or without, US backing.
Driven To Drink? "Gatorade sues Powerade for false advertising" headlines Ad Age.
Protecting Whom? "FTC Seeks Public Comment on Revised Proposed Rule Prohibiting Petroleum Market Manipulation." Key part: "The revised proposed rule would prohibit anyone from engaging in fraud or deceit in wholesale petroleum markets, or misleading any person by omitting important information from statements that might distort petroleum markets because of the omission."
Have we gone so over-the-top in granting access to industry groups that something like this needs comment? Who're they protecting in this?
K Words There's a good short note in the Economist this week about the change/evolution of "K" words in Japanese-style management. If you're in one of those long-drawn-out (is it over yet?) conference room meetings today and someone says 'kaizen' write them off as hopelessly behind the curve and suggest "kakushin" instead.
If you knew that Shinchi Kakushin was a Zen master who helped establish kōan's as a tool on the road to enlightenment, award yourself a green star for the day.
On the other hand, if you immediately thought "No, George, you meant satori, not 'enlightenment' you get a gold star for the day.
If, however, you've actually achieved satori, you'll be laughing your ass off about here, since handing out the stars is the joke on the inept adept wannabe's.....
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Coping: With Reader's Writes Oh boy, is the inbox overflowing from this week's reports...
Look, no offense to the good-hearted patriots who take part in things like the tea parties...all well and good. But lookie here: Whenever there is a movement of people that becomes popular, you can bet your sweet bippy that someone is lurking in the background trying to usurp either the main intention of the activity, or they will be trying to twist or mold it to their own (usually corrupt) designs. Take the USA's backdoor handling of Venezuela. Wonder how much tax dough has gone down that rat hole trying to 'incite' similar well-meaning patriots to spontaneously revolt and throw off the chains of...er....oil field ownership... Other places, other objectives. Like those juicy natural gas fields in Bolivia. All an expansion of 'royalty' and 'manifest destiny' which, by the way, brings me to this:
Still Looking For Leadership A reader has further thoughts on the 'vision' that we need to get out of the current economic mess...but it isn't what you think...
Yeah, manifest destiny has been sorely abused as to intent. Been mostly used as an excuse to steal land, kill native/first peoples and such...and since it makes fine exploitive capitalism jingo, it'd frankly have been more surprising if you hadn't heard such pap from the beasts in training you hung with.
The Patriot Come-Lately Another reader wonders about why Texgov Rick Perry wasn't so gung ho on things like the border and state's rights when ol' George was hanging his ten-gallon in Washington:
Analogy? Corpgov just wrestled five-figures of taxes out of my possession....what do you mean 'analogy' to wrestling? It's the real deal this week...
Seeds of Sorrow You see the headline over at Digital Journal that "Monsanto GM-corn harvest fails massively in South Africa"?
Repeat after me: The reason to plant ONLY heritage seeds is what? Answer: Ma Nature has had hundreds of thousands of years to work out the details for a huge range of climate extreme and isn't driving patent law & foreign policy...
Look Out Clear Channel NOAA Weather Radio rolling out a news talk format!
Toon'ed Up Another reader writes:
No, THANK YOU! Gosh, I wish I had said that one...marvelous quote.
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Thursday April 16, 2009 Independence of Texas? Ha! Among the many 'tea parties' that were held on Tax Day, April 15th this year, the one here in Texas that had republicorp governor Rick Perry seems to be the one garnering the most attention. Sporting headlines like "Perry fires up anti-tax crowd" the coverage seems to me to be a major distraction from the country's immediate problems at hand which are largely economic and environmental in nature; not to mention the need to figure out how to build a sustainable economic not just from the balance sheet perspective, but also to live within limits of resources.
Fanned by headlines coming from outfits like Fox News ( "Governor Says Texans May Want to Secede From Union But Probably Won't") the reports would seem to suggest that Texas is really planning to demand accountability from the Obama administration, especially when it comes to federal spending.
But wait! Something doesn't quite feel right about such stories. I think I might know why: This has all the appearances of good 'street theatre'. Wonder why I think that?
In case you hadn't noticed, the Johnny-coming-lately 'patriotic fervor' which has supposedly driven Texas government to threaten to send troops to the Mexican Border, and now this latest independence talk, seems to have arrived concurrently with president Obama's election to the White House. But where were Rick Perry and his cohorts during the Bush reign? I didn't hear about Rick Perry mobilizing state resources to build a border fence then....
I also seem to remember the Perry folks were supporting the Trans-Texas Corridor, which has WorldNetDaily headlined back in 2006 at "Trans-Texas Corridor paved with campaign contributions?" This is a mirage project: When too much reporting and opposition pops up, it's shelved, only to be reincarnated under different names within a month or two...quite amusing, actually.
For another, Texas has been busily selling off lucrative Texas tollway operations to private contractors under the guise of small government. Yeah, I know, "How does that work? Taxpayers foot the bill for highways to get built and then the state sells off operating rights to private outfits?" And when talk surfaces in Washington about legislation that would bar private operation of any highway built with federal dollars, state boyz seem to get all worked up...well of course!
Fine questions all...but here's the simple point of this morning's first item: When I see folks out whipping up the 'tea party' sentiment, I ask myself "Is this part of a sincere, ongoing effort that was spawned before the Bushco republicorps lost first sitting at the teat of lobbyists? Or, has it arisen more recently?
Pardon my pointing this out, but seems to me that it's more bluster and braggadocio...Why weren't Perry et all defending our border and not selling off roads when you-know-who was in DC? Couldn't be that this is just more hype and BS designed to keep folks from thinking about the real issues? I mean like "Follow the money" or government by high bidders now, could it? --- Meantime, all this frenzy whipping has folks wondering if Rick Perry maybe doesn't have higher aspirations politically. Stories like "Rick Perry: Tea party darling" hint in that direction.
In the bigger scheme of things, this is all such a charade; the right versus left retooled with new issues all the while behind the scenes, the folks with the money are pulling the strings to make sure their have versus have-not's games continue unobstructed. Change? My butt.
The hell of it is - it seems to be working. I'll just let ya'll get sucked into the partisan game...have fun.
Slowing Economy The Federal Reserve released its 'Beige Book' report on Wednesday and among it's 52-odd pages was this sober assessment of manufacturing in the USA:
The other interesting development for Fed watchers was the speech by chairman Ben Bernanke in which he outlined why the Fed bailed out AIG but let Lehman implode:
They key thing to know - which most media don't both to explain, perhaps thinking you can remember an obscure economics story from 35 years ago, when you and I can't remember what we ate for dinner last week - is that the world's first brush with global economic collapse came back in 1974 when Germany's Herstatt Bank also ended globalism:
I spent several hours back in the late 1970's talking about the implications of a Herstatt-type failure with Dr. Paul Erdman, a one-time Swiss Banker turned financial novel writer. One thing I got out of the conversation was that Herstatt would not likely be the first bank failure, and sure enough if you plot out the number of 'near misses' (including the recent AIG and Icelandic problems) one could argue that these are coming with increasing frequency and larger impacts. LTCM ('94), Uruguay ('02), and the list goes on and feels like it's accelerating....
On a simple histogram basis, seems to be a building trend, which continues to lead me to my very pessimistic outlook going into this coming fall and winter.
The Fed's release of industrial production numbers, showing a 12.8% decline, year-on-year (YoY) is certainly no cause for optimism.
Banks and Robbers I must have taken a double-doze of cynical pills this morning. I just can't understand why stories like the "13-year-old boy accused of robbing Illinois bank" is newsworthy. Why, when a bunch of 50-something execs rob the taxpayer's bank kitty, it doesn't seem to be as big a deal; I'm left pondering. --- Our cartoonist, Rebecca Price of www.toon-republic.com has gotten one thing figured out: What bankers mean by 'transparency":
By the way, the www.toon-republic.com caption contest this week features renaming various States of the Union.
Paper Chase And speaking of banks, Chase is out with better than expected earings.
Was that with, or without, Taxpayer money? I lose track...
Bombing 15 dead and 40-odd wounded as a suicide bomber hit an Iraqi army base.
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Coping: "Leadership Option" Feedback A number of emails on yesterday's piece about the "Leadership Option":
Another writes:
A fine point is raised here about whether there really is a "PowersThatBe".
There's a wonderful book that you should consider reading before
making up your mind on the PTB question: How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
So it goes with the PowersThatBe. Sometimes when you look, you say Aha! There! That group over there writing out checks to lobbyists who in turn write checks to political types...that's an arm of the PowersThatBe at work. Yet, on the other hand, there's the argument that no, this is just chaotic activity within the larger realm of human behavior and the apparent randomness really is random.
To put it into one of my "framing references" it might look like this drawn out schematically:
| <-- All Chaos -------------- how things really work -------PowersThatBe--->|
In other words, a group of highly connected people, acting when events really are at a tipping point, say like a certain fraternity at Yale, could exert influence at just the right moment on what might otherwise be 'chaotic' events to make things fall this way, or that.
Is there are Illuminati? Oh sure. Is it perfectly orchestrated in some Bohemian way? Well, no, but sort of.... It's really more complicated, because on the one hand you've got Shakespeare telling us "There is a tide in the affairs of men...." on the one hand, and on the other pretty distinct proof that certain rich and powerful people write checks to push this cause or Rockeworld this way or that.
People see PTB's everywhere. Take Shakespeare, for example: Was Shakespeare a master Mason? And even if so, so what? Is there some group of 300 families? Maybe. A consortium of old oil money with an agenda? Almost undoubtedly. Those fraternity boyz with skulls? Oh, sure, throw them in, too. ----- The Occam's Razor I use is "quid pro quo." If there is a discernable money source, or benefit to money, then I don't mind using the PTB label. If, on the other hand, an event looks more or less random with not money trail, then odds are fair that it's a chaotic event.
I won't pretend to offer which subgroup is holding hands with which other subgroups, but just to take our present banking crisis as an example, events make unlikely allies and when enough allies - in this case bankers- start working together they form a transient node of 'PowersThatBe'.
While it may be disappointing that I don't subscribe to one conspiracy theory uber alles, that doesn't mean I don't dismiss any groups from contributing members/participants as the topography of events changes. Instead, I'll be looking for the money and follow that back to whoever seems to benefit most and then focus on their motivation.
It may not be as much fun being a financial theorist compared to being a conspiracy theorist but I've got, at latest check, about 14-trillion reasons to keep watching over in that direction. Besides, there being a 'tide of men' in investments, I want to avoid the losing side whenever possible.
Want a good shorthand for the PowersThatBe? If your net worth is under $100-million, you ain't them. --- Send snip and save items and thousand dollar bills to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Around the Ranch: Golf Since one of Elaine's boys is visiting us, we decided to entertain him with a round of golf - I mean what better thing to do on Tax Day than go play golf? OK, fishing would have been OK, too. But we chose golf.
This is the first round of golf I've played since moving to Texas in early 2003. To say I was rusty doesn't even begin to describe it. I was a WD-40 salesman's dream.
We played Pine Dunes (http://www.pinedunes.com/) which, with a rented set of clubs set us back $200 for the three of us, but it was a special event.
The best I did on one hole was par, but most of the rest ran into trouble. I mean trouble like getting out of one sand trap and going directly into the next sand trap. There are a couple of holes on the course which seem like they are more sand than grass.
The visiting son did extremely well in comparison, and Elaine birdied one hole. Both E and me ended somewhere well north of 100 (I gave up counting about 9 holes into it).
My game was so bad that I've decided to put the clubs away for another seven years. When I'm 67, I'll try again. Some things get better with age, you know, like wine. Maybe golf will, too. But based on how I feel this morning, I'm not in any kind of hurry to find out.
April 15, 2009 Tame CPI Here's the Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department this morning:
Just looking at these numbers, the only thing that is keeping a restart of inflation from popping looks to be energy and transportation. Therefore, when oil starts to pop back up to the $70-$100 range, which I'd expect sooner than later, that's when we could see inflation appearing. The OPEC'ers aren't amused calling the current market a 'devastating contraction'.
I've been talking to a few farming sources and the price of milk, just to pick an example, has been down around $10 per hundredweight...so a lot of dairy operations are headed for the brink...and once operators start cutting back their production/herd sizes? Well, enjoy that $4/gallon milk while you can. That's the kind of thing that could double this summer.
Capacity utilization and industrial production due out from the Fed within the hour. --- When I looked, the stock market futures were flat to down a bit, not much change in the metals, either.
Tax Time As promised, I got my taxes out before the deadline this year. ABC's got a good summary of "Outrageous Loopholes, Tax Tips for You." Sniffing around you'll find a link to the part on 'creative deductions' here.
Although many of the 'tea party' protests may have been initially seeded by republicorp operatives, they have continued to 'get traction' and in most states, like Washington, there are plenty of 'tea parties' being planned.
I'll be looking to the Obama administration in a week, or so, to see if they really are going to live up to their promise of 'transparency' by reporting how many tea bags arrive at the White House. Don't suppose there's even a point to asking folks in Congress, but I will call my Congressman's office next week, just to see. --- All this 'tea party' talk has spilled over into media. I trust you saw the report this week that headlines "Fox News takes ownership of tea parties, and, therefore, their extremist rhetoric" over at the Media Matters for America web site? --- That Hal Turner story I told you about earlier this week - that Homeland Security is worried about right wing extremism, has gotten traction and is now showing up in headlines like "Federal agency warns of radicals on right".
Or, as a Breitbart report headlines it: "US recession, 1st black president, 'fuel extremism'." --- States and municipalities have a looming problem: sales tax revenues are falling at the fastest rate in years.
India Voting Overnight tonight, up to 700-million will be voting in India. Don't be surprised if we hear about attacks on polling places and such in tomorrow's headlines, but hopefully things will go calmly.
Remind me to ask customer service reps today if they have voted yet, LOL.
Global Coastal Event Watch You see where "Hong Kong Christens an Ark of Biblical Proportions"?
I guess linguistically I'd call this an ark-type?
Anti-Pirate Training Pays Off Another ship has been attacked by pirates of Somalia, but they didn't take the vessel.
Wrong Number? eBay is planning an IPO to offload Skype to end 'marriage made in hell'.
Gone to the Dogs The Obama family has a new dog....
The first Portuguese water dog I ever played with was one owned by legendary yacht designer Bob Perry. Great breed - wonderful temperament. I may not agree with the administration on much, but I gotta given 'em credit for good taste in dogs.
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Coping: The Leadership Option In yesterday's column I opined that what must happen to get past the currently evolving depression is for policymakers to decide - as was done in Germany's Weimar Republic, to follow the course of hyperinflation instead of the developing easier path into deflation. Why, I could have kicked a hive of Africanized bees and gotten less stinging. Here's a typical same email that came in under the heading "Has your mind been captured?"
With all due respect, I disagree. I happened to be a guest on a radio show yesterday (talking about the economy on Beyond the Ordinary) and I suggested that the bottom of the current mess will be easily seen when we get someone in a position of leadership to do what they were elected to do, namely lead.
"Leading" implies being in the lead...as in 'in front of'...developing problems, rather than the current state of affairs, always behind the eight-ball, reacting to this problem or that, in a way that works out according to whatever haphazard set of interests shows up and agrees on whatever the course of least resistance is right then and there with no regard for the longer view.
While it's true - and frighteningly so - that America really could blow 234 years of nationhood as early as next year, I hold that hope remains IF we can just muster up a little gumption; some real leadership.
What's missing in America is what I often tell consulting clients who come to me and want to kick-start their companies: Leadership begins at the top and it begins with a clearly articulated vision.
That's what I don't see: A clearly articulated, equal opportunity description of the 'next economy' and a New America that we can all get to work building right now. Nope. Instead, we're going from bailout to bailout. On this course, I agree that as long as we're in the reactive mode, the future isn't just bleak...it really is over. "Toast 2010" would be a good label for it.
But there is a way out: I call it The Leadership Option.
Wouldn't it be grand if had a national vision, meaning agreement on some very simple, easily action steps that virtually all of us could buy in to? Here are some thoughts, and while it's by no means complete, it's a starting point and you can add, or subtract, as you please:
I call this the leadership option. It's not going to be popular, but it's where I believe America needs to go - and if you agree with some of these points, it's time we start demanding, from the folks we elect, the one thing that we're not getting right now:
Leadership.
Were there is no vision, all perish. And that's isn't the America I dream of. --- I've had employers and clients who really 'gotten' the visioning process. They were (and are) the folks who understand that the most important job of the CEO is not 'counting beans' or coming up with sales plans; it's holding and articulating a company vision and teaching/sharing actionable pieces of the vision with everyone in the organization.
One company I was with - where I learned some of this firsthand, had the vision sharing so damn right that the company grew from 13-employees in 1985 to over $7-billion in annual revenue. That's the power of this vision process.
I think it was Dr. Wayne Dyer who said "You'll see it when you believe it." That's how visioning work. I don't have a really nice life because I let it happen. Things don't work that way. I spend about 10-minutes a day visioning.
You get a great life, good health, and emotional happiness, and let's throw in love, too, by actively working on a vision. If you don't have the kind of life you want - right now - then either you a) don't have a vision, or b) you aren't doing the work achieving your vision requires. It's easy enough to spot the people who are bullshitting themselves on visioning; an amazing number of people don't do the work.
Coming back to the point of this morning's note: I did a lot of sailing during the 10-years I lived on my sailboat....and my favorite point of sail -- the 'which way are you going relative to the wind' -- was going into the wind; it's called beating or 'going to weather.' ---- A sailboat can't go directly into the wind. At best, you can go upwind about 45-degrees to the true wind. When you're sailing inland waters, at some point, you'll get close enough to shore that you'll have to 'tack'...which means turning the boat to the other 45 degrees off the true wind, such that you sort of zigzag uphill into the wind; working to weather it's called.
Now when the boat is 'tacking', or 'coming about', the wind momentarily is head-on. Sails flap. Seems like no progress is being made.
But if the tack is smartly done - if the captain has confidence and a sure hand on the helm - the boat's forward momentum carries it through the 'no wind in the sails' part of the tack and the wind fills the sails on the opposite tack and the journey upwind continues with only a few moments of disturbance and only a small/momentary loss of speed.
There's a danger in tacking though - and it's analogous to the danger in the economy. If the boat doesn't have good speed when the tack begins, or if an inexperienced sailor tries to tack too slowly, it's possible to get the boat 'stuck' midway though the tack - the process is called "being in irons."
There's a way to recover, of course: The boat starts to go backward, and as soon as it goes backward with enough speed, the rudder is thrown hard over and the bow of the bow falls off the wind, and the sails can fill again. The economic equivalent is a depression. Things go backward just so far and then a new consensus emerges.
Where America is right now is in the process of 'tacking.' Except I don't hear anyone articulating it causing me to wonder "Is anyone at the helm of this thing?"
I didn't hear a strong voice in the Bush administration saying to all of us "Gonna be tacking soon, all hands ready about!" If we'd had such a captain, we would have been able to do a better job of anticipating the financial storm which is in danger of locking us in irons. I didn't get a 'New America vision' out of Bush.
Nor, do I hear the next move of the great ship of state being articulated by the current captain. The danger was, and is, that we will be locked in irons, go backwards, and further into depression.
So while this morning's email raises a fine question "has your mind been captured?" I don't think so. I'm just waiting for America to figure out what its next tack will be amidst news reports hinting that the captain and the crew in Washington don't seem to understand the concepts of tacking and keeping boat speed up.
Nevertheless, I hold that there is always hope, because leadership is still an option.
A User Note A reader pointed out that I should be setting my page up so that links, when clicked, open in a new tab. Done! had it on for a while, somehow got turned off, but now, you won't have to hit the 'back button'...
Tuesday April 14, 2009 Inflation as Policy Just Became Unavoidable You may recall last year that a number of pundits back in say, oh, October, or around in there, we hyping the happy-talk that a recovery would be getting up a head of steam in the second half of 2009. Today, we've got to take a hard look at a couple of reports that make me wonder again if there will be any substantial recovery until 2010...if then.
The reason is that the economy depends heavily (almost entirely if you back out wars) on people buying more than just the necessities of life. More than food, more than sharing rooms and renting out extra space in the home. So the first bummer of the day is this from the Census folks:
Next, we've got to look at the PPI numbers to see if there's any sign of inflation - which we need to reverse the normal dynamic of depressions, namely deflation. Oh boy, have we got a deal on deflation going here:
Now, here's what absolutely must happen at a policy level in order to kick the country out of deflation - and this window won't be open too long: A policy decision will be made at the highest levels - and you may not even hear about it being made - that what America needs to survive is a good dose of inflation. Look at the PPI data trend - the last line in the table and it should scare the hell out of you:
March finished goods dropping 1.2% means an annualized rate of deflation of 15.4%.
Pop Quiz Time! Name one large country whose government has just bet several trillion dollars of future taxpayer generated revenue (and ask what a 15.4% collapse in revenues will do to financial stability/viability of said country): ____________
See how inflation is now the only option?
These Taxing Times I'm looking for a bit of cheerleading in the presidential speech on the economy today, but its slim comfort since today I will be sending my tax return and checks to the government in the annual ritual that's been around since the advent of income taxes in the US (in permanent form) back in 1913, which I'm sure you already know is 'coincidentally' same year that the bankster cabal of the time managed to grease their Federal Reserve Act through Congress. Despite being right there in the history books, it seems whenever commentator brings up this unfortunate 'coincidence', i.e. bankers get control of the money supply and the imposition of the income tax, it's popular amongst the PowersThatBe's minions to brand such observations as either rantings or unrelated and then proceed with personal attacks on whatever the source.
If you haven't yet read it, there's a speech given by Congressman Louis McFadden in remarks made in 1934 where the Fed is 'called out'. Seems during the first depression, at least one fellow 'got it' and had the balls to come out and call things like they are. McFadden wasn't just any old Congressman of the day: He had started working for the First National Bank of Canton (Ohio) in 1892 and rose to its presidency where he served for almost a decade. Once in Congress he was defeated in 1934, not so much for his opposition to how the Federal Reserve operated, but more likely because of what today would be labeled anti-Semitic remarks. --- Once you get past the 'coincidence' of history - the Fed and the Income Tax popping up the same year - there's really not much opportunity to avoid taxes. "More Americans wary of tax man this year" notes a Reuter's piece today.
Since the global tab for the current economic mess is now several trillions of dollars ($9-trillion rings a bell here) income taxes are especially important not only here in the US, but in other jurisdictions as well. With reports coming out that "Iceland banking inquiry finds murky geysers run deep" we have to wonder, as the articles asks, if there's not another Enron-like situation at the core of this particular economic pimple. --- The head of the IRS says that the agency will have 'compassion' for struggling taxpayers' but I couldn't find a 'compassion' entry in TurboTax or in the IRS forms directory. --- Tax time underscores that most of my countrymen have personalities that might best be described as "Good-natured chiselers" who believe that since they are 'good people' they should pull extra deductions.
The problem is, of course, that it's something akin to breaking the law in other areas; if you want a life of looking over your shoulder, have at it. But no matter how much I believe that the country should be funded with a consumption tax which would actually reward savers and tax consumption which in turn increases capital formation, the law is the law and promises of compassion, or not, I've made the personal decision (as always) to report every dime and not stretch deductions. While there's a chance that such chiseling might work out, I've read enough history to figure that I've only got so much time on this earth and fighting the beast will come along soon enough, so no point in kicking its tail. It's an uneasy truce at best, but I feed the beast paper with zeroes on it and I get peace and quiet; a reasonable exchange.
Besides: Remember what happened to Al Capone in the end? Tax evasion. Government has unlimited resources; I don't. It's just that simple. So until things change via the ballot box (or via the barricades and mobs with pitchforks) I'll just send in the balance due for 2008 and my Q1 '09.
Pappy used to say: "It isn't fun to pay, but at least you've got something to report."
Slim comfort, that, but like another old saying goes: "He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day." Besides: It's only paper.
Piracy Strikes Again Speaking of stepping on tails and kicking sand in the wrong face, I trust you've heard that the Somali pirates have come back with three fresh hijackings? It's almost as if there's an effort underway to goad us in to attacking their onshore facilities. Back at the Great Libretto from the rickety time machine, is this the "battle won and war lost" shaping up? We'll see in due course. --- Meantime an interesting note from my brother-in-law Panama Bates on point, which I don't think he'd mind my sharing in part:
And so my questions run along the same lines. Oh, and speaking of NK, as in NuKe...
Fall/Winter Worries While there's been some rumblings that the Obama administration may be dropping a key condition (or so) in order to get talks going with Iran, a second trouble spot worth watching is North Korea planning to restart it's nuclear arms plant. --- Of course, if that's not enough to keep you up nights, there's always the report that Pakistan is about to fall apart - as in 'collapse' - within months.
Spector Specter --- Wonder which book company will pay how much for his book? I mean, isn't that how the once Land of the Free operates nowadays? Criminee sakes...
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Time Monks Warn: Bad Honey Although I haven't had time to talk with chief time monk Cliff up at www.halfpasthuman.com specifically about general release of something popping out of the web bots recently, I don't think he'd mind the public posting of this note to ALTA subscribers:
We've turned a Google news alert on for 'honey' + 'china'.
GCE June/July Another item mentioned here as popping up in the predictive linguistics is this whole matter of the 'global coastal event' (or GCE). You'll recall we got a 'temporal marker' on that happening in the 90-120 day range when there was a prequel event (scientific conference papers discussed) in March.
So while we're waiting for that story, like the tide, to come in here's a reader observation to gnaw:
Not to ruin your day completely, but since mine is ruined about every time I talk to the time monks, here's a concept for you to try and wrap your head around...although its still a few years out:
There's a reason that the peer-reviewed journals are a little light on explaining all those underwater cities around the world...more for Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend...
Lowest Common Denominator Programming Department Hmmm... HBO is planning to do a film on the 2008 election, according to a report in Variety.
I love the HBO special project folks, but oh, my: I didn't find the real deal very interesting, so I can't imagine why anyone in their right mind would want to watch more politics that is provided in daily news coverage.
Wait! Did I say right mind? With more than half the country on puppy downers and the other half soaked in fluoride to suppress higher order thinking, I think I have just answered my own question.
Terms of Indenture A fair number of folks wrote in response to my note yesterday on how certain banks (such as Chase) are changing terms via super-fine print highly legalese unilateral notices with obscure opt-out provisions. Here's a typical reader response:
While you're waiting for me to report some action by various states attorneys general who are looking in on such practices, you might want to bookmark a Jim Dandy site called www.changeinterms.com which headlines "Deception is not a "business model".
Unfortunately, while they may have been right at some point, it seems to me that those last few trillion we ponied up to bailout the banksters and their minions is solid evidence that deception really is a business model at this point in corporate cannibalism. --- Here, take two aspirin and get'cher lazy butt to work. Along the way, don't get sucked into the right/republicorp versus left/marxist democorp sideshow.
Life is mainly a power trip till a better model arises; a top-down, up/down game where most of us are 'down' the corporate foodchain far enough to be appetizers.
Monday April 13, 2009 This May Be Confusing...BUT.... Time to break out a fresh white board marker - and no sniffing now, even if this is Monday and no one feels like rolling out after a long (for some) weekend and "hittin' & gittin' it" but it puts chow on the table, so throw on that yoke of oppression and let's get on with it - and in the meantime, I want to refresh you memory on my favorite chart because it could become very important shortly. --- It begins with the premise that you had $10,000 (or simply x dollars) back in 1998 and you had may a decision to put one third of your money into the Dow, one third into the broader S&P 500, and because in 1998 the Internet was the 'next big thing', you put 1/3rd into the NASDAQ Composite.
Here's what would have happened:
Staring at this chart for a minute, a couple of things become immediately apparent. The first of which is that in terms of absolute values, while it's true that the Dow did not hit 14,091 or so back in 2007, when you spread your money around covering all three indices, you can see that something about the way most folks view the market ain't quite honest if ol' George's chart makes any sense. And since it's Monday and all, I will tell you why it's missed: People are still - to this very day - acting/pretending/putting on that the Internet Bubble Collapse didn't happen.
No, I have no idea why, but 99.9% of media will insist that the markets peaked in 2007. Maybe it's just an artifact of humans being in denial; I just don't know. Nor, do I especially care. You know, it's one of those "Whatever!" things.
There's also something about Bubble Behavior to be inferred here; namely that people mostly don't recognize manias when they slap 'em upside the head, especially when the larger view (money spread around, not concentrated in the Dow) yields a whole different economic reality than the current ruling paradigm...one where 9/11 fits into a larger scheme of socioeconomic engineering.
The only question I've got about the future of the market is whether we rally up toward the downward parallel price channel that defines our 'large 3' where it could be turned back and give us 3e In May (which would give us real crash potential & the linguistics seem to fit this best) or whether the rally continues on up to the 9,200-9,400 (or higher, but not to exceed 13,091) range before being turned back and then begins a big 5 down (the crash mode) this fall.
Frankly, it doesn't matter to me one way or the other, since I'm over on the commodity side of things presently looking for ways to position myself to reap a few bucks on what I expect will be inflation - and while it may seem paradoxical to be hoping for inflation conditions will emerge, as my consigliore pointed out in this weekend's first-ever guest Peoplenomics article, that make it by far the better policy choice to pick inflation over continued deflation.
I expect that reasonable folks in Washington - if there are any, LOL - would come to the same conclusion on the desirability of inflation but maybe not for another month. So I will just tune my bets a bit as I leg in.
Not to say that I'll be right - and as ever, this is NOT investment advice. But, I'm putting my money where my chart is for a number of reasons.
To my way of thinking, it's not so much a matter of "Will we ultimately have to go much lower in the stock market?" The answer to that one is "Duh, dude!" It's just "How far is down?"
The only question is whether we run into the down price channel somewhere between 8,600 and 8,800 and fall apart from there, which if the linguistics prove out should come along before June with a further dollar crisis, or whether the beliefs of most chartists will come to pass in which case we would continue to rally up quite some distance - even over 10,000 o0n the Dow - as we complete this whatever-it-is formation. This is why the both possible outcomes are shown on the chart.
Personally, I favor falling apart just over the top of the price channel, but remember this may only be apparent in this chart because (remember this!) it's a combination of three kinds of indices. Quite possibly we could have a Dow rally to the 10,000 level but have the S&P and NASDAQ lag, or whatever.
Anyway, I explained this (and more) for subscribers this weekend's ChartPack, but in the interest of 'eyes wide shut' it deserves consideration by anyone foolish enough to think paper and ink are real stores of value, LOL. Money of the 'burns easily' sort can only be as strong as the underlying social contract. Metals? That's you 'other kettle of fish.' --- Now, since we are on the topic of money, the New York Times editions Sunday have spawned a rather tasty new phrase.. "surgical bankruptcy" in their coverage of GM.
The East Coast financial establishment and the PowersThatBe have a toughie here: How to sell the GM funding fiasco to us check-writing taxpayers. We've sunk $13.4 billion into GM so far, and if they go under, I for one would be asking "What did the money buy, except a little time for policymakers who should have seen some of this coming?"
As a tax-payer, would I have enough skin in the game to maybe get a 'free bolt' in any new GM car, or something? Haven't seen any discounts yet from AIG though you and I are what, 80% owners there? ---- And just when I thought there was enough in the way of 'financial products' sloshing around the world - and like financial products haven't caused enough damage already - along comes Goldman with a $5.5 billion funds to buy secondary private equity stakes. True, might be a hot product and all but is that a gamer I'd play? Nope.
Seems to me that we could be entering a time when an asset denominated in US dollars (as I assume this will be) might show a decent return once the policy making decision arrives that inflation is the only way out. But, would it return me something on a purchasing power basis?
What I envision is a world where by this fall, where the dollar is collapsing and inflation rages; what a chance to pick up bushel baskets of paper, huh?
And if the dollar's coming slide emerges, inflation will be breaking out like pimples on a teenager. Gold and silver should pop. Oil, just about everything imported.
Already, I can almost sense the 'hot money' asking "Hmmm...what countries are going to do well in whatever lies ahead?" Headlines like "Asia markets rise on Japan stimulus, China lending" may be giving some important hints to the aware. --- Here's something to ponder for you this week: What would happen if the following three things occurred simultaneously?
Where would you want your money -- -invested in the US or Hong Kong?
Here's how it works out:
If you bought the US market with say $1,000, then at the end of whatever period this takes, the USA investment would be worth $1,150.
Now let's say that you park your money in Hong Kong and your $1,000 drops 5% ($950) but remember this decline is in Yuan now. So comes the time you exit the trade and bring your money home, only to discover the dollar has only 60% of it's previous value, so you would come home (after currency swing) with $1,583.33 which is a a damn sight better than $1,150 even if it's Monday morning and no one is awake yet.
Like I said at the top: This may be confusing but.... Say,. did you catch the NY Times piece about China slowing purchasing of US paper? What's that? Is that a clock ticking I hear?
Returning Vets a Right Wing Threat? Hal Turner's site is reporting on a not-for-release DHS document that's called "Rightwing Extremism: Current Economic and Political Climate Fueling Resurgence in Radicalization and Recruitment" where returning vets are cast as a potential threat... Haven't confirmed the authenticity of the report, but sounds like a DHS document...
Oil Drops Stock futures down a tad as reports come in about oil demand falling from the IEA. Fall, baby, fall. Come to papa's entry point on those....Yee Haw! At posting time, Dow looked a bit soft...but I hold out hope of a rally later on.
Piracy Drama Ends, But....
Next up: Policy discussions about going after the modern day pirate's lair? And with so many former Somalis scattered around the world, will their threats of revenge come to pass?
Say, you don't think this is the 'test' that the linguistics foresaw where the president would be put in the position of 'winning the battler, losing the war' do you? --- There's a way to frame the 'pirate incidents' as more a case of 'corporatism runs out of resource' and while I don't justify or excuse piracy, one could recall all the dumping off Somalia that has destroyed traditional fishing grounds. And what pollution hasn't wrecked, foreign long liners and such have. So with no career options, piracy looks pretty good when you're down, out, hungry, and ignored.
So if this is spun around back on the West, especially among indigenous peoples who've been scattered by poverty throughout the globe, I'm just saying don't be surprised.
Spreading Chaos Then there's the latest out of Thailand, which is descending into chaos now...
Tweaks and Worms Why, it sounds almost like an 'early bird gets the...' kind of thing, but no, it's really "Twitter Worm Attack Continues: Here’s How to Keep Safe" over at PC World.
This Georgesop Fable's moral? How about: The early adopter gets the worm?
Out the Window "84% of IT pros don't plan to upgrade to Windows 7 this year" says a ZDNet report.
Me? Oh, I'm still waiting on Vista 64 SP2's release to get class compliant MIDI drivers. Call me when W7 SP1 is out.
But here's one: Spam is now 97% of email traffic.
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: With Predatory Lending, Redux Millions of people have received letters raising rates and changing terms on our credit card accounts. It doesn't seem to make any difference whether you've been a loyal customer for decades, or whether you've ever been late on a payment, or whether you're even using the card. You get these notices in the mail with lawyerly mumbo-jumbo and are expected to make sense of it without a call to your CPA or hiring your own lawyer/legalese interpreter. As a cynic, I'd suggest that this is the natural result of overturning every state's right to protect its citizens from usury and predatory lending. The battle broke out in the 1960's and was promptly lost. By taking the most corporate-favorable possible interpretation of the Commerce clause of the Constitution, banks were freed to set up their credit card operations in a small state with no usury protection, and stick the terms of that state's laws to account holders in all other states. Interest rates above 12% or 15% illegal in your state? How about 33%. No problem. It only takes one state with no usury limits and all of us get bent over. Nice racket, with Fed Funds at zero. Borrow at no cost, and lend at 30%+. Better yet, if the borrower is driven into bankruptcy when all the banks gang up on them, they can't have their credit card debts wiped out, thanks to the “Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005”, more correctly described as the “Debt Slave Act of 2005” by economics blogger Mish Shedlock. If the borrower ever gets back on their feet again, the banks can still come after them for the balance due on their credit cards, no doubt with compounded penalties and interest. This morning I'd like to give a prize to the crack legal team at JP Morgan Chase, for their new definition of default:
WTF? With friends like this... To be in default, you don't even have to default on anything. Just them believing that you might not be willing or able to pay them or pay anyone else at some point in the future is sufficient for them to demand payment in full immediately! Snidely Whiplash lives, and he's got more than Little Nell's homestead in his sights. Obviously, The Inspector is out of town and at this very moment, Dudley Do-right is...er...out sightseeing? Now an interesting rumor: I've heard that Chase also apparently decided to apply the new (sky-high) interest rates and revised use policies even to customers who had followed their instructions by opting out, in writing, in the prescribed period of time. Check your latest statements to your credit card company as done to you. I'm wondering if anyone else got this letter and change of terms from Chase? Did you “opt out” yet still get charged a new, higher rate? I wouldn't be surprised to see a class action arise if, for example, it happened to former WAMU credit card customers who opted out. Not to pick on Chase, but I'm hearing rumbles that a couple of state Attorneys General, the Senate Banking Committee and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) are already investigating. This also brings a very interesting economic dynamic into focus: Seems that as the economy continues sinking that credit card charge-off rates will continue to climb. Ergo, the CC companies will claim the need to raise rates ever higher on the rest of us. But now let me put on my thinking cap and see where all this leads when taken to its ultimate extreme: Credit card companies charging remaining customers infinitely high interest because of what will be portrayed as infinitely high costs of charge-offs. But what no one seems to own up to is that given the chance to preemptively raise rates without cause - only belief - (and even if you opt out, that might be overlooked), doesn't this damn everyone to be card slaves forever? Maybe that's the point, yah think? Like I said, the mob could take lessons from credit card companies on how to run their loan sharking trade. Fine print says right here we can break both your legs and an arm on Thursdays kinda thing... Oh, and be sure to notice what state your credit card statement comes from. Might want to throw a couple of bucks into political campaigns of usury law supporters there, or better:
Kick those states out of the Union.
Interior Decorating Here's a sure sign that times are hard and getting harder: My son is selling one of of his wall decorations...a 1969 framed (museum type UV glass, too) newspaper of "Man Walks On Moon".
I asked him why he was selling it and the answer? "Dad, its just something to hang on the wall...and besides, I've got bills to pay..."
I've got mixed feelings about this...even thought about buying it myself. But, when I get to thinking about it, what would I do with it? Put it on the wall of my office?
This gets me back around to the concept of 'decorating' since we had our first sitting in the Polynesia room this weekend. You walk in, see a grass mat look to the place - almost like being in a 1950's Hawaiian or Polynesia-themed restaurant and the room transports you to some other time and place. Quite cool.
I suppose I take 'decorating' to an extreme, but that's me. Just something to 'hang on the wall?" Maybe. But part of me recognizes that with hard times, people are giving up bits of history to be able to pay bills and 'get light' on physical goods.
A case of a parent learning from a child...
Here's the latest from www.opencongress.org on the House bill which would let workers inside the District of Columbia work income tax free!
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
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Essentially, the book makes the point that humans by their
nature are pattern seekers. In other words, the PTB
may be nothing more than a bunch of humans taking a
