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Saturday May 16, 2009                     7:55 CDT

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Getting Back to Monday

First things first - and since this site is all about the Second Depression - which arrived in the spring of 2000 but which media-programmed financial folks don't want to report - I'd point you at Monday's column where I outlined my expectations of a pullback before the market makes one last-gasp run into summer.  THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE but if you look at where the market closed a ,week-ago Friday and how it closed yesterday, you'll see a drop from 8,574.65 down to 8,268.64, a tad shy of 311-poionts down.

Oh, should I mention that from my May 6th mid-session subscriber update  when the Dow popped up over 8,600 we're down?  Naw, guess not...

Moreover, if you look at a basic chart of the past five trading days like this one from Yahoo, you'll see that Monday through mid-Tuesday was my A or 1 down, and that the nice rally was my B or 2 (depending on how you want to keep your own counts and that leaves us to wonder whether the market will rally next week, to fill the Wednesday gap opening, or whether the market will just keep on sinking to complete what could be a 3 or C now in progress.  Gap might be filled on the4 way down, or on the way up on our final run up...haven't seen anything convincing in the way of papers to say when gaps have to be filled.  Just that eventually they do seem to get filled.  Most times, anyway.

Frankly, I don't care much either way. since I'm out of the market except for a July silver call option or three on the commodity side, although I may roll those forward to September this coming week.

Key thing to be pondering is how to hedge your retirement account into another currency since some very bright people like Nouriel Roubini and others see China's Yuan as overtaking the US dollar to become the world's new ';reserve currency'.

If you're not comfortable understanding how currency swings impact your net worth, maybe time to get to pondering.  Remember that if you go out of US dollars and into something, say in Hong Kong, that while that market might get whacked 50 percent on the downside as the Depression unfolds a little further, that a 50% drop in the dollar would mean that you'd still be even on a domestic dollar basis when you repatriated funds.  Of course whether they'd buy much when you got them back here is a different problem because 50-% inflation in imported goods would be along about then, too.

Why heck, just buy more gold & silver then and be patient. When Obama says things are unsustainable, he's probably right.

Dealer Woes

You can find the whole list of Chrysler dealerships being closed here (takes a sec to load) and yes, seems we may lose one here in Palestine.  No doubt there will be some appealing, but this is all seemingly on a real fast track.

The Edmonton Sun reports that GM is not posting its 1,100 dealerships being closed.  They are sending notes to the impacted firms.

Stay Off Drudge?

That's what the US Attorneys office in Massachusetts is apparently telling employees - not with government issued computers because of virus threats.

I run pretty good defenses here at Urban and gee, Drudge only installed...lemme count here...eleven cookies, most of which appear to be advertiser tracking cookies...and yeah, there's potential when you visit any web site to have stuff installed on your computer that you don't want top be there.

You can read more at Politico, but that site seemed to push out 10 cookies on the way in , or so...not that any of these cookies are bad - just a fact of ecommerce.  But with new super cookies than can go 5 megs in size, there is potential for abuse...

All of which is why I strongly recommend and personally use the Maxa-Tools Cookie Manager...helluva fine tool.  It'll cost you a whopping $35-bucks and it's an incredible eye-opener when it comes to seeing what other software is really leaving on your machine in the way of tracking cookies and such.  Oh, and a free trial if you just want to test drive it.

More  Flu Deaths Globally

Here's the US picture as of Saturday morning's latest available as the WHO global death count is up to 72:

Here's my latest back of the envelope on this stuff:

Total deaths so far:                     72

Total Cases:                           8.451

Less 0 Death countries:           3,337

subtotal                                  8,114

Divided into 72 deaths             0.88%

The "Voices" Story

Ah, this has been incredibly interesting - and so much so that I'm going to look into it in Peoplenomics this weekend.  Not because of the woo-woo aspects of it, but because I've now gotten enough reports that I think if I apply a little scientific method to it, there may be some discernable patterns to it.  Anyway, Peoplenomics this weekend promises to be bipolar - looking at woo-woo on the one hand and keeping a strict economic focus of what's ahead for markets in the ChartPack section.

Oh, the further reason for dealing with it in Peoplenomics?  Trading is first and foremost a psychological exercise - so when a new phenomena comes along in the psychological realm, I pay attention because - and this is a what if kind of thing - there's bleed-through (print through if that's a better term for it) into the behavior of people who are not conscious of something going on.

So if you're a subscriber, be ready for a whole lot of discussion about how pop-psychology may influence trading.  Oh, and if you're not a subscriber, go try doing a little research on your own  with phrases like "on resisting social influence" and then tell me again how there's no link between crowd behaviors (and manipulation thereof) and how markets perform.  ;-)

Around The Ranch:  Breaking In A Keyboard, More Screwing

Seems like I am always writing something...and usually on a keyboard.  As a result, a couple of things I thought I'd pass along that might help you do a better job of 'outputting'. 

For openers, I've found it terribly 'confusing' in a sense to use multiple computers.  There's a computer for the ham radio, a computer which I use for the odd bit of audio production, the computer where UrbanSurvival happens, along with Peoplenomics and tons of client work, and last but certainly not least, there's a computer where my 'novel' is happening.  One computer can't do all things, since there's a physical location requirement associated with each task:  The audio production computer needs to be adjacent to the firewire mixer and production library.  The ham radio computer has to be next to the radio gear, and the Urban computer with dual monitors sits next to a satellite receiver such that there are three screens going in pre-market hours. 

Oh, and the novel is on its own laptop because   I can drag it around and sit wherever the mood strikes me.  Sometimes reclined in an overstuffed chair, sometimes on the new deck, or wherever, and I dare not use Elaine's laptop.

So my existence most days consists of looking at seven screens, which I'll explain in a moment. 

But on point this morning, it also means that I have to deal with four different keyboards...and this morning I am breaking in a new one on the Urban computer.  This is a simple Microsoft keyboard, but it has a whole different 'touch' than the Logitech which is now on the 'novel' computer.  So if there are more, or less, errors today, it's probably because I am still getting 'connected'.  Which brings me to my 'resolution': I'm going on eBay next week and buy myself five or six keyboard - all the same - and plug them into all the damn computers around here. 

It's slowly driving me mad to have to go through 'change-up' of keyboarding styles going from one box to the next.

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Something that I highly recommend - if you can come up with the couple of hundred bucks to do it, is the addition of a second monitor.  Windows (everything since W-98) has had a feature called 'dual monitors/extended desktop'.  If you are not into dual-monitor computing, you really ought to give it a try.  Takes up a little more real estate on your desk, but once you get used to it, you'll never go back to the size constraints of a single monitor.

The reason is simple: No more alt-tabbing between applications.  You can have a spreadsheet on the left monitor, a trading window on the right, or as I write Urban, I will have FrontPage (or Web Expression, depending on my mood) on the right monitor while emails from readers and a browser with its multiple tabs, going on the left monitor.

If you have a built-in video card on your motherboard, buying a dual DVI video card and two more monitors would get you into three monitors and you can add monitors these days for around a hundred bucks a throw and maybe $75 for a good dual DVI card.

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The other suggestion I'd offer is to get the darn keyboard off your desk and into your lap.  I find that I can write for hours and hours with never any wrist or arm soreness when my keyboard is on my lap, but it forced to put the keyboard on the desk I go into spasms of  discomfort.  Granted, it may not look proper, but damn, is it ever comfortable once you get into it.

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The weekend projects include the usual around the ranch:  Got to put some repairs on one of the fence lines where you large billy goat has decided to start rubbing and pushing out the fence trying to bust out so as he can go courting some of my neighbor's does. 

Then there's the 8-bazillion screws that have to go into my new deck.  My dreams of being able to nail gun the deck together blew up when I discovered that the nail gun and stainless ring shanks would not go through hard treated wood, although it worked just fine on untreated.  Consequently I'm putting in those special deck screws - the ACR head kind, which I've discovered really are a slightly different head than a #2 Phillips; they're sort of a Phillips and square drive half-breed.

The biggest problem with the deck is the screwing...and even though I'm barely 60, I just can't screw all day like I used to.  Why, I even tried dusting the battery-powered drill wit5h a fine dusting of a ground up Viagra pill, but con-sarned thing still stops screwing after an hour or two. 

Wonder if it's getting too old?

One more thing to add to my shopping list at Lowes; a really good electric drill/screwdriver plus extra batteries.  This screwing for an hour and then waiting for a battery to recharge is just not acceptable.  Maybe when I get older, but not this year.

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Dang.  There I go doing another 'not gonna do Saturday updates' update. 

Peoplenomics

We seem to be hearing that maybe, at long last, there is some light at the end of the tunnel that's not another trainload of economic mayhem coming our way.  Don't believe it for a minute.  I'll admit only that  the Dow, which closed last week at 8,574.65 has put on an impressive rally since March 2, when it was about 1,948  points lower...6,626.94.  But are we really out of the woods yet?  Ha!  I think you already know the answer to this, but let's revisit an indicator I've used in the past to see if the world is in any danger of going back to making sense any time soon. It's called the....

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Pass It Around

UrbanSurvival just keeps getting more popular - thanks to your help.  But don't stop now.  Tell all your friends to wander by for an odd mixture of common sense economics, humor, preparedness and a side order of ...well, weird.  Click here for a tool that may help.

"Live on $10,000" Updated

What?  You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"?  Suit yourself.  We're all going to live it shortly, anyway.  I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped.  But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:

Yep - still possible.  I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them.  The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings...  Click here for the page with more details on it.

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 Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

Friday May 15, 2009

October 26+/- - Another Web Bot Hit Shapes Up

Oh-oh.  Here we go again.  Calendar watch time. I  can't remember how long ago I told you to put a circle on October 26th (plus or minus a week or so) but that was when Iran would be attacked but oh, my frigging goodness, have you see the "Report: U.S., Allies Put October Deadline on Progress from Iran"? 

This is all starting to become almost 'other-worldly' too clear to me:  Markets will come down over the next couple of weeks to the high seven thousands on the Dow, we get one more pop up to the 9,600 level.  The 'troubles' socially come to visit France and then the U.K.  And then here in the U.S.

The n we get the bombing of Iran by Israel in late October, about which time, the U.S. government will be contemplating use of its 'continuity of government' plans due to social unrest brought about by (what else?) economic collapse.  And that in turn sets a 4-week temporal 'timer' that brings us to the part where South Korea receives a nuke or two from the North.  And then things get bad.

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Now, whether this all works out precisely doesn't really matter because the meme - thought virus if you will - is out and about.  And that in itself is curious to know about in advance.

Oh, and it means Elaine and I already have our NIOSH P100 full-face masks.  The dust going global by early November threatens to cross from the conceptual to the physical layer of life.  Like we need it.  For more on this boundary between layers, see today's "Coping" section.

CPI - Number Of The Day

All our days are numbered, it goes without saying.  If you have Microsoft Excel and o some date math, you could figure today as the 134th day of the year.  Although lacking that, you would make do with a different number, the Consumer Price Index Report out from the Labor Department:

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in April before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This index has fallen 0.7 percent over the last 12 months, due primarily to a 25.2 percent drop in energy prices. The year-over-year declines in March and April are the first since 1955.

 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in April after declining 0.1 percent in March. The energy index declined for the second straight month, falling 2.4 percent after declining 3.0 percent in March. The indexes for motor fuel, fuel oil, natural gas, and electricity all declined in April. The food index declined as well, falling 0.2 percent in April after a 0.1 percent decrease in March. The index for food away from home increased, but the food at home index fell 0.6 percent with none of the six major grocery store food groups posting an increase. Over the past year, the food index has risen 3.3 percent while the energy index has declined 25.2 percent.

 

Offsetting the declines in the food and energy indexes was a 0.3 percent increase in the index for all items less food and energy. Over 40 percent of the increase was due to a second consecutive large increase in the tobacco index. The index rose 9.3 percent in April as an increase in the federal excise tax on cigarettes went into effect. A larger increase in the index for medical care, an increase in the index for new vehicles, and an upturn in the lodging away from home index also contributed to the April increase. The index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.9 percent over the past year.

The real story?  Unadjusted 12 month number shows year on year we saw a 0.7% deflation happening.  You know, deflation as in depressions have that kind of impact, deflation.

Remember the part - maybe six months back - where I tried to describe the simultaneous arrival of inflation for necessaries and the falling prices of luxuries?  Hyperstagflation is the term I was using and this morning's report keeps me thinking along those lines.

Getting Real Department

"Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’  Gee, whiz, golly willickers.  Who would'a thought?  Duh...

Yes, the economy blows up late summer and yes people take to the streets and yes, gold and silver should shine.  But that's not exactly  news around here, is it?

Sham Wow

The latest Ambrose Evans-Pritchard piece in the UK Telegraph is a must-read if you're still skeptical of my disbelief in the 'offishul' government mantra that 'better times are just ahead' jingoisms.  It begins:

"US 'sham' bank bail-outs enrich speculators, says buy-out chief Mark Patterson The US Treasury’s effort to stabilise the banking system through the TARP programme is a hopelessly ill-conceived policy that enriches speculators at public expense, according to the buy-out firm supposed to be pioneering the joint public-private bank rescues. "

Just to say it again - as I have been saying since 2000 - Yes, the world really is in a second Depression and No, you're not supposed to notice.

Chilling Out Department

Or, maybe I should file this in my 'dueling calculators" file: "Ice sheet melt threat reassessed: The collapse of a major polar ice sheet will not raise global sea levels as much as previous projections suggest, a team of scientists has calculated."

You recall Ure's Axiom #123 I trust?  "The difference between a liar and a statistician is the one carries a calculator while t'other holds an office."

There Goes Canada

Seen the Canadian bill called C-6?  Under the guise of the consumer protection, Canada is about to give huge powers to govern my executive fiat.  Video worth watching here.

UFO's & Cattle Mutilations

New topic - go with my on this: Our resident cartoon genius, Rebecca Price has finally solved not one, but two stories which have been bugging me for years.  You know, cattle mutilation cases and UFO's...

More over at www.toon-republic.com including rates for other sites that want to carry her 'toons...she's really very good....

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Coping: Boundaries Between Dimensions

Yesterday's piece in the "Coping" section - which dealt with the 'hearing of Voices" and then people supposedly disappearing has brought all kinds of feedback.  But before we go there, let me clarify that the story in the Tasmanian Times was not written in 2005 as I reported yesterday, and was in fact published on May 11th...barely four days ago.

Now step into our "things get strange from here" department.  First and foremost, one of our readers wrote to the author of the story to find out if it was 'real' or not:

"I was very excited to read the article you shared yesterday about people suddenly disappearing or Ascending. I checked back with the author for some additional proof that might have confirmed the story such as newspaper articles or response from family members and the police. The author came back confirming that the piece was actually a work of fiction.....Never mind, perhaps he is tapping into the great unconsciousness."

And accompanying this reader note was an answer reported as coming from the story's author:

"On the Beach  is a work of fiction. It was, in truth, written after the fever dream described in the story. However, none of the events described in the story occurred or are real. No-one disappeared from Mt Nelson or Glenorchy.

In the end this story was, for me, creative writing in the first-person style epitomised by the fictional, but often seen as real, writing of Dr John Watson, who chronicled the adventures of Sherlock Holmes.

I wrote in this style and I wrote a fictional story. There is nothing wrong with reading a fictional story and having that story mean something to you, but likeThe Wizard of EarthSea, it is fiction. "

Just fiction?  OK, fine so far.  But is it really a work of fiction?  Oh, boy, is this ever getting strange..

Our reader in Tasmania who was hearing "the Voice" I told you about yesterday has an update on her situation.

"Good Morning George,

Well, it's day two of first hearing the "voice." My husband told me this morning that he sent you an email. He's Bernie [name withheld]. He will be the contact person "if" anything should happen to me. Hmm, I find it ironic in a way, my husband wasn't really that interested in my experience until after I told him I sent you an email about this strange happening. His interest was in Jon Sumby's account of what is happening to people here in Tasmania. I wanted to shake him and say, "Hey, it's happening to me too and I'm a bit concerned here because I don't know what the hell is going on." I did say to him that I'm very sure it's happening to many people all over the planet. They just aren't talking about it...ah, those who know people are disappearing that is.

In a way, my concern is increasing George. The reason why I say this is because at 7:30 a.m. 3/12 hours ago, I heard what I thought was my telephone ringing but it wasn't my physical telephone. I must have heard this coming from another dimension. Shrugging it off (don't know why I do that), I was sorting out some papers in the bedroom when I heard, whom I thought was my husband in the living room at the time, garbled words. I said Hmm, what did you say? Then it hit me, B. isn't here. I'm the only one in the house! The "voice" again. I have to admit that I started to shake a little bit from nervousness. Only this time George, the words are becoming more clear. Still garbled but almost able to hear the words clearly...not there yet.

As I said, in a way I'm concerned about what is happening to me but in another way, I feel very calm and serene about it. The "voice", even though still garbled, feels very comfortable and reassuring to me...as if I've always known it.

George, what the hell is going on and why? Why have Clif and Igor picked up on this happening? I really would like some answers. I sent an email off to Jon Sumby and asked him to contact me and why.

Jon didn't say in his article how long these people heard the 'voice' before hearing the words clearing. It seems to me, from reading the article, that the "voice" starts off as a sound first and evolves into clearly spoken words. How much time between hearing the noise and understanding what the "voice" is saying. Then within a few days, these people are gone. As I said before, I'm at stage 2 at the moment.

I was amazed at the title of the book you're in the process of writing. Seems to be synchronicity all around. I don't believe in coincidences.

Thank you for Pam's email. Don't know if I should respond to her or not. I'm still a bit shaky about what's occurring. Yes, I'm just over 50 but I do eat chicken and fish. I do not eat red meat, pork and lamb.

Still here......for now.

So our Tasmania friend is still here.  I think she can relax, too.  Some meat-eaters are hearing 'it' too, and besides, it's 'fiction'.  (Or is it?) 

But so many questions are unanswered.  Thursday I decided to press forward in the investigation.  Who do I know who's been a vegetarian for 30+ years? My friend Cliff at HalfPastHuman who, it turns out as been hearing something since mid March...

"Hard Sync Wink

Personal essay by clif high

Where to start? Well, as confusing as it may become, we begin with an attempt to describe the way in which it is manifesting.

I had written, some time back in our ALTA reports, about the [disappearances], and how some of ThePowersThatBe would be walking along, and simply vanish….and not to a ‘good place’. I had described how it would freak out the rest of TPTB seriously, and they will react as though the [disappearances] were a ‘thing’ of the material world such as a kidnapping, or murder. They will gather [security forces] around themselves in large numbers in some cases, and it will matter not. In our work the details of the data sets indicated that these TPTB creatures, and in some instances, their entire cadres of ‘body guards’, would, in an instant, [disappear] to a not nice place. The effects of this upon the world of the [power elite] will be quite interesting to observe. Look for it later in 2009.

Which brings us to the other side of the [disappearance] word sets. This set, within the data, is under the influence of the [duality] meta data layer, and has ‘another side to it’. This, as you may suspect, is referring to the ‘Voice’, as it has been described in the article from the Tasmanian Times. I provided less information on these [personal vanishings] as I did not want to get into arguments with those humans blighted and blinded by religion, especially the rabid, radical christers who would think that I was describing the ‘rapture’. And, as the data sets noted, the [personal vanishings] were just that… a personal manifestation on the part of some individuals.

Soooo….there I was, hardly awake on Thursday morning, just back from the store, shivering with the cold rain still on my shoulders, when George Ure calls up. He is all whipped up by this giant sync wink having to do with his novel (which sounds like a tempting read), and the appearance of the article from Tasmania about the [disappearances], and the several emails that he had received. I had briefly skimmed his site before his call so knew that he had written about this ‘voice’ and disappearing humans, but, to be honest, was more concerned about getting warm and caffinated than accuracy or depth of reading.

When George called, his monkey mind all whipped up and excited by the giant sync wink from universe, I was in my ‘go away, I have real work to do’ mode and was dismissive of the conclusions that he was drawing from his experience. Not that I discounted the sync wink, it was just that it had, other than getting the timing correct in our ALTA reports about the manifesting of the [disappearance] language, not much personal relevance. And I wanted to finish my coffee.

Now the real curious part is that I just volunteered to George that I had been ‘hearing this chatter’ coming through the other vibrations in my personal universe for some time now, and that it was somewhat annoying. Note again, I had not yet read the accurate description given by the Tasmanian Times article of the phenomena. I then went on to describe the ‘chatter’ to George, and when he asked, had to think back to when I first became aware of this…which was slightly after the March equinox. So, about “2/two months ago, more or less”, I informed George.

But, other than being an irritant, the ‘chatter’, offers little in the way of meaning or understanding. As a point of information, the ‘chatter’ is as though there is a sedate party going on just over the fence, the voices of the many people involved are clearly heard as voices, just that there is no ability to separate it out into words….very much as though a teevee or radio is left on in a close by room, but not quite loud enough. A real annoyance, as I may have mentioned.

Then, to cement our feet into the whole giant sync wink of the thing, in our conversation about the voice phenomena, I ended up using the words ‘vegetarian’, and ‘ken’ (meaning ‘understanding’), and other descriptors which I would later read in the article about the disappearances. Again, multiple layers of winking within this sync wink.

Just to add to the hairs-crawling-up-the-back-of-the- neck feeling to all of this, I noted that immediately before the appearance of the ‘chatter’, I had gone through some very core level changes, and had decided to wind down to stoppage on the ALTA (Web Bots) reports. Hmmm. And, in telling it all to George, I have noted that several of the other people I know on this particular path have also reached a point where, for whatever reason, they had also started ‘winding down’ their public presence. Again, a major level of sync wink?

So, after dismissing George, and getting him off the phone, I went to the link that he had provided to the Tasmanian Times article, and read through about 2/3 (two thirds) of it before spitting coffee out my nose, and calling George back up. There in the article was a creepily accurate description of what I have been hearing, and most striking, a timeline to disappearance that ran 3/three months!

Oh, carp, thinks I, quickly trying to calculate just when the 'chatter' first came into my life. Gulp, another cuppa coffee made due to spilling the first, and then back to the article with the realization that it has been nearly 2/two months since I first became aware of the voices-at-the-party buried in the general hum of universe around me. Ohhhhh probably this is NOT a good sign.

Then, of course, within the article is the common link of being a vegetarian…and yup, I got that too. Been a vegetarian for decades. Damn winks just don’t stop.

So I got the timing correct on the disappearance language, even though I was forecasting it from over a year ago. I did not anticipate being ‘part’ of the phenomena, but what the hell, I had already decided that I needed to ‘take the summer off’ as the readers of the ALTA reports can attest. Curious timing? Winding up affairs? That remains to be seen.

I have no plans on going anywhere, and to the contrary have had to buckle down to work here as so many relatives here in the PNW are now without jobs, and I do have some capability to assist them in these times of troubles. So I had already begun a serious effort toward our next project (no, not the crop swirlies…), and now the potential (not probability) of an ‘extended vacation’ to ‘universe incognito’ appears.

Well, it does, as I note, remain to be seen. I have no plans to “wink out” a month from now. Those who know me, will certainly testify to my general state of ‘raspiness’, which probably disqualifies me from the remainder of the ‘voice’ experience. So I still will be here a month from now…..

But, if not… I don’t go without my boat, and assurances that someone over there knows how to bake a good pie.

Waiting around, Clif high "

Cliff's NOT the only one hearing 'something' - let me dig into the mailbag for you:

"George, I’ve got to say this column today scared the crap out of me because I didn’t put any connotation to what has been happening to me the last 4 weeks. Now I refuse to believe that this has any connection to the people disappearing stuff because I won’t let my brain go there, but for the last 4 Thursdays mornings including this am I have been awakened by a noise of chattering. Similar to that of the beginning of Sgt Peppers. And then a familiar male voice says very distinctly “Chris” The first couple of times I thought it was my dad. Last week I literally yelled out the window “Ya what’s up?” but realized no one was there. The weird thing is it has been the same exact voice at the same exact time the last 4 Thursdays. I realized last week that the voice wasn’t my dad’s but very close to his voice and yet still very familiar. However, I can’t figure out whose voice it is. It is driving me slightly nuts mostly because it is waking me up at the same damn time the last few Thursdays. There has only been one thing different that I can notice over the last 4 weeks. I am also a part time musician/singer/songwriter. I have two cd’s of original material to my credit. The second one being released soon. But over the last 4 weeks I have been writing songs like crazy. The creative juices are on overload and I have never had this good of a run where I feel so tapped in to my soul writing. Most of the songs I am writing are about Liberty, Freedom and the pursuit of happiness. As well as breaking out of the paradigm we are in and listening to your heart and gut to guide you to the right path and free yourself of this nonsensical world we seem to be living in now. These are all topics I have never written about. I usually write about love or other sappy crap lol.. I would think I am writing this stuff because I whole heartedly believe something is hugely wrong and there is a revolutionary spirit brewing inside of me and it is manifesting in these songs. Maybe because of your sites and listening to you and Cliff on the radio a few times has stirred up this emotion causing me to write/ Or maybe it is people like Glenn Beck who are stirring up Libertarian views inside of me. Although I am starting to see the monkey mind in all of this in that that can play into the PTB hands as well. All I know is if I include these songs on my next cd and they get any type of even regional or local notoriety I am sure I will land on some sort of list or two. OR maybe this is all happening the last 4 weeks because of the voice annoying me and waking me up every Thursday…Why Thursday lol Anyway George keep up the great work. You’ve been spot on about the market. Bought my first gold coin the other day. It’s the new insurance out there..."

Lots of people do hear these 'voices' it seems and after reading more than a dozen emails from people who have heard voices, here's another typical report:

"I've heard the voices - a few months ago - still here!

I even mentioned it to my wife. Noted it as I could not quite make out what the whisper was saying. ( my guess, the next progression from too much advil, going beyond the ringing in the ears)"

I have been watching the net closely for the 'disappearances' meme to set in, since that's something predicted in the HPH linguists.  Some time after July 15th we ought to be reading headlines about a ship with 50-people aboard being found in Mary Celeste fashion, abandoned with no trace of living humans - and even more mystifying - no sign of violence.

But I'm getting ahead of myself - history will be along soon enough.  Back to some reader comments:

"I found the article on the voice and your thoughts on the disappearances very interesting. Here's my take on it. The fact that they are all vegetarians does not surprise me. Vegetarianism raises your physical/energetic vibration. Eating animal meat tends to lower your vibration, keeping you more grounded on this plane of existence. Those people that heard the voice apparently did enter a door to another dimension and to do this, one has to raise the energetic vibration of their physical body.

The definition of the apocalypse is "the unveiling", which I personally think will be a lifting of the veil between dimensions. Will it happen for everyone? Probably not. We are in very interesting times George. I think that everyone who is on this earth at this time came here for what is coming around 2012. I also think that this huge shift that we are beginning to experience on this plane is a reflection of something that is taking place on a greater scale on other planes of existence. We all need to fasten our seat belts.

Thanks for talking about all of these things on urbansurvival. What is occurring during this shift is so much more than what is happening in the stock market. It is the end of a paradigm and the beginning of something entirely new. Can't wait to see what it is!"

And another email tells this:

"I have studied hauntings and other unusual episodes, all my life. I have heard the "Wall Voices" in one home I lived in. Many people describe the Voices, as someone having a party in another apartment, or some such thing. I do not believe all of these missing people you speak of, are on their way to the Heavenly places, yet some may be part of an abduction. The Reptilians are one species that loves to use many humans for food, and possibly they have simply got a craving for vegetarians. I know many people do believe that they will be taken up by Christ, and I too feel that this may happen, but I'm just not ready to go to a Mall and disappear. There are so many things that could be happening, that I would be very careful, when hearing a Voice. "

"What about you, George?" you're wondering.  No mysterious 'voices' going - but another 10 pages of my novel mysterious appeared out of my fingers yesterday.  And the deepest sleep in years followed last night.  Black, blank, dark, sleep - the kind you wake up from and go "Wow, that was sure dark, black, blank sleep" after.

The case of the "Voices" recalls the old Buffalo Springfield song "There's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear..."  but I've got a dime-sized bet that as we get closer to 2012 the 'boundaries' between different planes of existence are going to get ever so much thinner - and that ought to really freak out a billion or more people.  Wonder if the article's being called fiction because it brought so much buzz...I don't really know.  But it did touch something.

I can see the leading edge of it, too:  extremely sane and extremely bright people I know personally and through the web site, have touched this something.  But as the song goes, "What it is ain't exactly clear...."  But I get a fleeting outline of it when I get emails like this one:

"George,

I'm writing to you in light of this request:

"Now, I don't want to freak anyone out about this, but if you start hearing a soft male voice off in the distance and you can't quite make out what it says, please send me a note before you cross over into wherever these folks seem to be going."

And please understand, I know exactly how what I'm about to tell you sounds. Which is why it's rather frightening to write it down. But I admire your work, and hopefully I'll be able to contribute somehow to your effort. So here goes.

Nine years ago I worked as a prototype test car driver for a major auto manufacturer. My happy task was to drive over the Rocky Mountains at least once a night in a loop that covered hundreds of miles. And if you think that's the world's most perfect job you'd be right. I was in gorgeous new cars, never in an office, on my own for hours and the stereo system rocked. :) And wow, what a view!

That night in August I was driving east down I-70 (I'm based in Denver) coming out of the mountains when I suddenly pulled over. I lost about 45 minutes of time that I simply can't remember. When I noticed my surroundings again I couldn't see color - everything was black and white. I was in a state of calm but extraordinary euphoria. And I decided I wanted to help the next car I saw experience this - the world was just too unhappy for these poor people to live in. So I was going to use the SUV I was driving that night to push the next car over a cliff. Yes - I know how it sounds, but I hope you'll keep reading. I NEVER wished to hurt anyone. I really truly thought I'd be doing them a favor, in fact, giving them the gift of the love and happiness I was experiencing. I called my girlfriend to let her know, and she calmly talked me down the mountain. The moment I got home, she drove me to the hospital and, predictably, I was immediately locked up. They diagnosed me as psychotic and bipolar, and said I had experienced a "nervous breakdown". Except there's no such thing - it's really just psych slang for "we don't really know". And they were never able to figure out where the colors went, why they came back, or what happened during that 45 minutes.

What's interesting about all this is what came before and after. The voices had been in my head for years. They chattered back and forth and never spoke to me directly. There were regulars - specifically two Asian ladies speaking what sounded like Japanese, and two elder men speaking what sounded like Russian. As I don't speak either language I can't be sure, though I'd swear the men were discussing things over a game of chess. There were also other sounds, like gun shots or explosions, rockets launching, that sort of thing. And some would just come and go, but none spoke to me directly.

That night I didn't hear anything out of the ordinary that I can remember. But after reading the account on your site and others, what I believe happened is that I was given a choice - I could go at that moment to wherever it is we're off to, or I could stay behind. For whatever reason I decided to stay. But whatever I experienced in those 45 minutes opened a new understanding that most people describe as "crazy".

I only ever heard the soft male voice once. I wouldn't even call it male. It's quite calm, and asexual. It told me "children are a nuisance, and you should be rid of them". Which never made any sense to me, because I'm not a mother. I did not live with, or even associate with children, and really had no opinion of them one way or the other. If anything, the phrase was simply confusing. I called my doctor to ask if I should go on stronger medication, and I was promptly locked up again for threatening to endanger children. *sigh* Oh well.

After a great deal of consideration, I believe the voice was trying to tell me not to hurt a child (certainly not!). There was nothing threatening or harmful in the voice at all. I believe what it was trying to tell me was to get rid of childish influences, or people without a greater type of understanding. It took time, but I've changed my circle of friends. Once I did that, my life fell rather neatly into place, and I've opened myself to a much wider sort of understanding.

There's a lot more, George. There's places that tell me to come to them, and events on the horizon. There's patterns in numbers (it makes me a little nuts that every time I look at a clock it's 12:34, 11:11, 2:22 etc. or 6:19 - as it is right now). But I think that's plenty to start with. I understand that society thinks I'm totally nuts. They're probably right - I'm certainly not your average citizen. But that doesn't invalidate what I've seen, heard or what I know. As my mama likes to say, "Crazy don't mean stupid."

The rickety time machine indicates more is due to show up on this topic over the weekend, so check back Monday and we'll follow the next twisty-turny of this most curiouser and curiouser line of inquiry... for now, more coffee and back to more pressing matters.  Like going shopping... 

Organic Checks

Reader sends this little shopping hint:

"Seems all ORGANIC veggies have a five digit PLU (sticker on fruit/veggies with number) that starts with the number NINE. GMO’s have a PLU that is five digits that start with an EIGHT. All other veggies/fruits have a four digit code…which means they are not organic but they are not GMO’s. "

Can't Trust Retirement Plans

Ah...that decision I made 30-years back never to put money down the 401(k) rat hole is turning out better and better as time goes on.  Especially after reading how "401(k) investors can't get their money" over on the Life After the Oil Crash board. 

Quick.  Look surprised.

Scouts & Guns

Several readers sent me the link to the NY Times story earlier this week about how some Explorer "Scouts train to fight terrorists and more".  One asked me for a comment, although I thought the article itself noting "It is all quite a step up from the square knot." was pretty good.

---

Need to be really clear on something, I guess.  Specifically that people are little vacuums that go through life sucking up skills and ideas - the aggregate of which defines a unique person. 

If Explorers learn about gun safety, I am not bothered in the least, because at least in East Texas, I expect most common sense, salt-of-the-earth folks would have no problem with a 'bump-fire AK-47 badge" and more than they'd have trouble with a 'how to deliver a baby" badge, or "how to garden badge". 

Why, if scouting would offer a few more of more practical skills you'll run into in life badges - like an "XHTML coding" badge, the "creative but legal tax angles" badge, or the "How to rescue a stranded topless dancer badge" - I'd sign up to be a Scout myself. 

But, sadly, Mrs. Brooks' Cub Scout troop didn't offer such real-life certifications in the late 1950's, so I'll contend that's why I never went on to become an Explorer.  Made up numerous badges to give myself, instead.  Like the two I'm working on here.

The '"Economics Badge" and the '"Writing Badge".  Touch and go whether I'll get either.

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Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

-- - end snip and save section --

Thursday May 14, 2009

Food Prices Zoom Up

Not that it comes as any surprise, since on the home front it looks like one gallon of gasoline costs what two quarts of milk does anymore...

"The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 0.3 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This rise followed a 1.2-percent decline in March and a 0.1-percent increase in February. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods moved down 0.5 percent following a 1.5-percent decrease a month earlier, and the crude goods index advanced 3.0 percent after declining 0.3 percent in March. (See table A.)

Among finished goods, prices for consumer foods rose 1.5 percent in April following a 0.7-percent decrease in the previous month. The index for finished energy goods edged down 0.1 percent subsequent to a 5.5-percent decline in March. Prices for finished goods other than foods and energy inched up 0.1 percent compared with no change a month earlier. "

Here's a real economics lesson for you:  After dropping for 8 straight months, crude goods - the stuff everything else is made from - was up 3% for the month.  Now, while I won't tell you that this pencils out to a 19.56% increase (fixing typo) annualized - oh, which it does - but I'm just saying that at some point all this money printing to bail out bankers is gonna come home to roost.

You see, as I've been saying since the Dow peaked (on a purchasing power basis) in 2000 - nine years ago now - the whole world has been in what I think of as "The invisible Depression" that no one wants to own up to.  Consumers are saturated with debt, the world is running out of resources and to those who argue "Yeah, but we haven't had as many bank failures as the Great Depression, I can only answer that the costs are simply more spread out now.  Yes, 9,000-odd banks failed back then, but then again, wasn't WAMU 2,460-something branches by itself?  And without TARP wouldn't more than 9,000 branches be gone already?

You're not supposed to question anything from MainStreamMedia, of course, which is probably why you drop by here - for a little "Texas straight talk".  But you see the point?  If the government in October of 1929 had printed up a bazillion dollars and tried to 'buy out' the Depression, would it have worked?  The answer:  For a while.  Then it would have blown up on somebody else's watch.  Which the presidents since Johnson have been doing - playing 'hot potato' with the economy and passing it off to the next guy.  Well, fine.

---

Speaking of economic realities, my consigliore/tax attorney sent me a fine rant note yesterday on how the press reports about how Social Security is going to 'run out of money in 2037' is just a bankster-like hype, shuck, and jive to keep people from realizing that Social Security is just a tax and with a little clear thinking, you can see how it plays out:

"OK, George. By now you know I often have a different take on things than your average "Joe", or "Economist", or "Wall Street Type" so with this you can also add to that list that I have a different take on Social Security than your average "Government Statistician" or "Elected Official".

The entire thingamajig about Social Security and Medicare running out of money is such and such a year is just a CHARADE!!

The way Social Security and Medicare work is that they "tax" at a rate that is HIGHER than their current payouts. And where do they put that "extra" tax that they collect? Well they "BUY" US Treasury Bonds.

Is there really a "Savings" that is occurring when those "excess" funds are used to buy the bonds? HECK NO!!

What in reality is happening is that the excess Social Security and Medicare tax collections that are not being spent immediately on those programs are being sent over to the general budget to be SPENT IMMEDIATELY on general government programs !!

The ONLY "theoretical" way that the US Government could ever pay back those "paper savings" for future Social Security or Medicare payments is by RAISING THE GENERAL TAX RATE at sometime in the future!!

If you ever happen to take a look at the numbers as to how much they will have to raise the tax rates to "repay" those bonds they are STUPENDOUS!! I forget the actual amount at the moment, but it would require something like an overall INCOME tax hike of 30% or more as I recall. Is that going to EVER happen? HECK NO!!

What these programs really are is a PAY AS YOU GO system ... with a neat little SCAM built in. OVERTAX the lower earning workers so that their overall EFFECTIVE tax rate is higher, often MUCH higher, than those who make a lot more money.

With Social Security and Medicare THERE IS NO SAVINGS FUND!! All there is to back up the Bonds is an "ASSUMPTION" that the US Government is going to raise the Income Tax Rates quite dramatically in the future when it comes time to pay off those bonds (which is never going to happen).

ANY increase in the Social Security or Medicare taxes so as to "Save the system" is really no such thing, it is just a Back Door Income Tax Increase on the lower income WORKERS in the country (remember these taxes do NOT apply to non-workers income, ie: interest, dividends, capital gains etc.) since the money being collected is being immediately spent for general government expenses.

Shoot maybe I can start my own private Social Security System. I can issue you bonds forever, well at least as long as I live. You just keep sending me money every month. I promise you I will pay you back with interest in 60 years!!! (long after I am dead!! and can no longer work) . I promise. I promise. I promise. "

Which is why - and I think he's actually said this before, too - Warren Buffett's secretary probably pays a higher income tax rate than he does - if you count the bait & switch of Social Security money that goes into general government funds. 

But don't go getting your pitchfork sharpened just yet, plenty more stuff to be pissed about... so have some coffee with you blood pressure pill and read on...  Oh, say that's Prozac?  That'll do....least till you try and unhook...

Credit Card BOHICA
The Bloomberg headline says it all: "Senate nears completing credit card bill, Blocks 15% rate cap."  And that hosing has left a lot of UrbanSurvival readers in a revolutionary mood.  Like this guy:

"You must have seen the story already. Bernard Sanders, Ind. Vt. commented:- “When banks are charging 30 percent interest rates, they are not making credit available; they are engaged in loan sharking.”

Is it possible, that the public takes this kind of sh*t from those who it elected …..thus pissing on the slaves they nailed to the bail-out? How is it possible these same crooks can take every last nickel these idiots have off their tables for their entire future and ….no one does a damn thing?

What happened to us, my friend – are we being had up the *ss, or what?

Well, not exactly.  Look, the banksters and their minions made their intentions clear when they went state-to-state and got the usury caps removed in the 1960's and 1970's - so if people are dumb enough after 30 years of foreplay to figure out they're getting screwed but still go ahead and get hooked on easy credit -- the first step on the road to hell -- well, I guess folks get what they sow because they believe corporations have something other than their own self-serving, bonus paying, screw-the-public-if-that's-what-it-takes bottom line. 

That's why I have since day one of this site openly, loudly, and repeatedly said "Do whatever it takes to pay off your cards and only use them if you can pay off 100% of what you buy monthly and don't ever get yourself into the bent over position with a bankster behind you again.

It's hard.  It takes discipline.  It's not fun.  It means doing without.  But believe me - there's nothing more satisfying than owning your own life.

If getting a credit card were as difficult as getting a concealed weapons permit, America would not be in the financial mess still emerging.

China to Screw Detroit

Speaking of sex acts on taxpayers...don'tcha just love how money has no borders (or morals)?  Latest example being the report that "Chinese imports could bring GM political troubles" - yet that's what's apparently on the horizon as GM lays off workers and plans to import product built in China to the US.

---

The damage won't be confined to Detroit though.  Between GM & Chrysler up to 3,000 dealers around the country will have to find something else to do.  I sure hope the local Chrysler dealer here in Palestine, Texas is on the "keepers' list.  Fine service operation in particular.  And American Iron pretty much sweeps the non-urban Texas auto shows.

---

And ,the auto industry shouldn't be singled out, I suppose.  Especially since Midwest Business is calling "Bank of America: The Chrysler of Banking."

By late summer, the commercial real estate paper bubble will be falling apart - big time.  And already, if you look for stories about it, you can find them now, if Google gets their news engine server error fixed...

Server Error

Why now when I'm trying to get a column out?  @#$%^&*()*^$#$%^&*

Sony's Pain

...amounts to $1-billion in their latest financial year.  How do you say その傷つく?  ("That hurts!")

Selling California

Psst!  Wanna buy a prison?  How about San Quentin?  This is just one of the real estate pieces being considered for sale as California tries to make budget ends meet.  Even the old Cow Palace in Daly City (if you know the way to San Jose from SF) may go.  Damn.  'Course it's not bad until the governor's mansion is sold off and Arnold starts operating out of  Motel Six...but the problems aren't going away quickly, so stick around a year or two.

Hybrid Flu - Genetically Targeted?

Here's a plot line for a novel or TV show:  White/Western/Capitalist/Too Many Humans for us types unleashing a genetically targeted virus that kills off minority people with this DNA marker, or that.  Then the revolution as the victims rise up and take down the West.  Oh boy...ugly thought.

Still, not entirely out of the realm of possibilities when I read stories like "Scientists find great genetic diversity in Mexican population" and a possible genetic relationship with the flu.

Meantime, here's the morning flu-cap:

Total deaths so far:                      65

Total Cases:                           6,497

Less 0 Death countries:              302

subtotal                                  6,195

Divided into 53 deaths             1.20%

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Coping:  Leading Edge of HPH "Disappearances" Meme?

Oh-oh.  Just got an email from a reader overseas who has had a brush with high strangeness and has included an article link that goes to how the 'disappearances'  -- coming to a planet near you this summer if the linguistics are right --- are structured.

First things first, though: You need to read what seems to be an article from 2005 which goes to the idea of people hearing a Voice and then - within days - disappearing:  Link here.

Now what gets interesting is that the reader in Tasmania seems to have started hearing this "Voice" and sent me an email about how it happened to her:

"I cannot believe what I read!! This morning, I was awakened around 3:00 a.m. and couldn't go back to sleep. So, onto my laptop to check emails as I was still trying to play catch up with emails from when I was in Brisbane. For some reason, I looked at my clock and it said 4:00 a.m.. It was then I heard a voice JUST AS DESCRIBED BELOW!!! At first I thought, who put the radio on so early? Then, I knew I was the only person who was awake. I didn't pay that much attention to it the first time. About 10 minutes later, I heard the same voice again and it sounded definitely male but soft. I couldn't make out what was being said...almost like someone talking to you from another part of a house where you can hear a voice speaking but cannot understand what is being said to you. I got up and walked through the house. Again, I say the only person up was me. I remember thinking what was it I heard? Eventually, I put it out of my mind and went on with my day. I haven't been feeling all the good recently but today, for some reason, I felt light, comforted, like a large weight was lifted from me..."

---

"Well, all I can say is if I'm not here in a couple of days, you will know what happened to me....my work is completed here and I'm off to another dimension. Some how, I don't feel this will happen to me just yet....but just in case......."

Now, I don't want to freak anyone out about this, but if you start hearing a soft male voice off in the distance and you can't quite make out what it says, please send me a note before you cross over into wherever these folks seem to be going.

Personally this is pretty interesting because the novel I've started writing has the working title "Dimension Barrier" and it's about the process that a fellow goes through who finds himself 'waking up in other people's lives" when he goes to sleep.  What's so interesting about this novel-in-progress is that when I am writing it, I go into an unusual (for me) state, where it's almost like I'm an observer watching the novel appear before me.  There's no conscious thinking going on - I just sort of go to this place where words start coming out of my fingers into the computer.  Not unlike descriptions of automatic writing although where the energy/information comes from in that process is debated among psychologists and it may just be another kind of creative mental state; I frankly don't know.

Anyway, I've asked this person to give me daily updates on her experience with "the Voice" and if you've started hearing one, I'll ask you to do the same thing - send along your experiences as long as you can and also the name of a close contact who I trust you'll also alert so that more formal investigations can be undertaken should you 'click out'.

Promises to be an interesting item to watch by those of us still present - and not hearing things. 

Yet....

Testing, Testing?

Happened to catch  - or at least I thought I did - an interesting story on CNN's HLN this morning about a supposed Colombia soccer game being interrupted by "hooligans" and how the president of Colombia in response to the event was considering implanting RFID ('microchips") in the hooligans so that police would know when they were at the game.  OK - interesting - so I decided to go looking for Colombia microchip/RFID stories in all languages this morning, since I thought they asked a  polling question.

Turns out I must have misheard:  Only soccer/football game interrupted by hooligans I could find was in Spain where there was trouble between unruly fans.  Not uncommon there. No stories about RFID chipping folks, though.

Went looking for RFID stories out of Colombia and only found one company getting an award for RFID chip work (among other things, and had to go to the Spanish language papers to find that.

So curious, I thought.  Couldn't find anything on the HLN or CNN web sites yet, either. 

Has me wondering....hmmmm...wonder if 'chipping bad guys' is something being trial ballooned.  It'll be interesting to see if the story pops up elsewhere, won't it?

Continuous Improvement Program

I've been working on improving the site a bit.  You may notice that Urban is now set up with Feedburner and I will try to update the RSS daily.  Also working away on XHTML compatibility...that's gonna take a change here....  But I've decided to get serious about growing this site.

Wednesday May 13, 2009

Retail Declines More

The newest numbers on retail sales have been released by the Census Bureau today.

The Web UrbanSurvival Only

Chart of the Week!

Before the chart, a little background:

Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.

So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.

No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:

"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.

Why sure it is...you bet. A 9� year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...

Write when you get rich,

George Ure, The People's Economist