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July 25, 2009 07:55 AM CDT
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Darts to Market, Banks to Dust I don't write Saturday columns with good reason. Why, if I did, I'd proclaim some absurdity like "Pure genius, that's what it is." Noting Peoplenomics readers have to be pleased this week with the market closing above 9,000. Especially in light of my 3/29/09 report, "What's this? George becomes Bullish?" If you'd read that report (and made your own decision to go long the Dow the next trading day), you could have entered around 7,450.
Dandy to see the Dow pop through 9k this week, but we're probably getting on toward the end of that rainbow and the potential for a huge slide - and I mean once-in-a-lifetime sized - is there for this fall.
If you're looking for a reason to be ready to bail about mid-August (or around the 22nd which is a linguistic emotional turn date which although not directly tied to the market can indicate a change of sentiment in a big way), we have no further to look than at the latest batch of news from the FDIC which shotgun married off seven more banks this week.
In fairness to the regulators, six of the seven banks were subsidiaries of Security Bank Corporation of Macon Georgia, but since each had its own legal entity name they pop up as six distinct banks. This brings the number of banks 'reorganized' since IndyMac bank in July of last year up to 86 on FDIC''s master list, depending on how you want to count related subsidiaries, but the long and short of it is that it still pencils up to 3,008 offices in my spreadsheet, so if you've been waiting to see the 'all-time' case of a market 'climbing a wall of worry', you should have plenty of popcorn for the next month...this'll maybe be a South Seas Bubble kind of event. Why, there's even an historical rhyme with the South Sea Company slave trading in that earlier period and the 'wage slavery' of today's interpretation of globalism; which while touted as 'good for business' has managed to strip the planet bare of many resources and over-populate things. --- We can now look at the calendar, darts at the ready, and start to suspise windows when a crash may take place this fall. I don't claim to be a genius on such matters, but I've read the work of others including Steve Puetz fine work which way back in 2001 (pre-9/11) linked market crashes to periods around lunar eclipses.
Flipping over to the NASA site, we find that there's a handy penumbral [not quite full ] lunar eclipse on August 6th.
So here goes my first dart:
We also know that there's this really 'hot date' emotionally on October 25th, which seems to correspond to an Israeli attack on Iran, and what better deal for the markets than some external 'event' to blame a decline on? If not Iran, then mandatory fluey stuff.
You'll no doubt recall (if'n yer not a young'un) how the market decline leading into 9/11 was not discussed much, and sort of fades off into the background? Yet when one stares coldly at the charts long enough, it's apparent that the 9/11 attack came (conveniently?) at exactly the right moment to keep people from recognizing that the Internet Bubble bursting marked the all time high in the Dow in the Spring of 2000 on a purchasing power basis. Sure, it was higher in the fall of '07, but it wouldn't buy as much, since watering down of our money is a favorite sport of the bankster class.
So, what are the dates? Once again looking to Excel to do the heavy lifting because it's a weekend and I try my darnedest not to really wake up until lunchtime, we see that the 34-day post emotional peak day would make 9/25/2009 our first 'hot date' to fear. The second one pencils out to 10/16/2009.
How the Dart Could Fly: If I line up the predictive linguistics, here's how I'd bet that it will work out...just a guess, but tack this up on the wall somewhere so you can say "George is a complete idiot...why look at this forecast he made..." Free, too, so no warranties or liabilities, inferred - this site's disclaimer applies and this is not investment advice. It's just when to have popcorn ready in case...and this is about the worst possible case scenario...
Not saying this WILL take place, but it's a fine Saturday morning to throw a dart and just for the helluvit I may throw a couple of kilobucks at long expiration index put options the week before August 22...(LEAPS)...which could - in just a certain light - do ok if the darts are anywhere near to being right. I'd bail on the options and move money out before the possible bank holidays since otherwise, the options may not clear or funds transfer....
Whew! No more coffee, thanks. Need to get back to sleep. What else is going on?
Hard Selling Healthcare --- The whole problem in health care (and one of the reasons for what are cited as high costs) is that healthcare is worse than the auto industry when it comes to pricing. Everyone gets a different rate.
Don't know why, but going back into memory, seemed to me that there used to be laws that required equal products with equal delivery times, had to be priced the same for all customers and that to do otherwise was a violation of (bad memory here, again) anti-trust laws.
But, obviously, since the insurance industry has more money than God to lobby, the fed's who could go after the smorgasbord of pricing (which seeks to get as much blood from each of us turnips as possible without regard to the discrimination involved), namely the US attorneys, all seem to get canned when they actually might provide the intended independent check & balance on corruption.
I have some first-hand experience in this from when I had my appendix out in Burbank in 2005. The 'rack rate' for my appendectomy was $17,000 (including the $10 Tylenol capsules, LOL) but when the big health care provider mess was straightened out, BC/BS paid around $7,200. If I hadn't had insurance, the involuntary sex act with my wallet would have been $10-large more. Which is (pardon this) bullshit.
I'm shopping health care again now, and seems even if the premiums don't buy me anything (I'm looking for a $5,000 deductible) the whole thing I'm really paying for is getting contract rates which are lower than man-off-the-street rates.
My bottom line: Big insurance outfits are not getting screwed. It's the guys like me that the hospitals try to stick rack rates to in order to subsidize freebies...and that's just wrong.
George's simple solution? No healthcare rate differentials allowed! Do away with this three-card Monte pricing crap and if people come in who can't/won't pay? Send the bill to Washington which mandated free medical care for illegals and such. Don't want anyone to die, but I do want congress to understand that bad policy on the border comes associated with a cost and it shouldn't land on Main street's back.
Congress has gotten into a horrible habit of mandating all kinds of programs to the States and then not providing funding. Under the Constitution, equal protection seems to mean that an emergency operation (mine was a burst appendix) should be done at the same rate for everyone. Anything else is crooked and I reject as BS the healthcare industry claims that they should get a discount because they will 'buy x appendectomies' this year. That's a function of demographics and health of a general population. They're not putting appendectomies on a shelf if the backroom till need, you know!
That actuaries and accountants are negotiating such nonsense (and not for free) is one reason healthcare is so damn bloated and expensive. Single rates to all comers - why that would take the bloom of the insurance profits, wouldn't it? Golly, then who'd pay for all that lobbying? That alone could collapse the hoteliers and restaurants in the District. Can't have that happening...Nossir.
Our other reader made an interesting note recently: "You know who does the best healthcare bang for the buck? The V.A...." Got a point: No rate games, hence no herds of negotiators, accountants, and actuaries and other leaches to support. Just doctors and other service deliverers.
Oh-oh...that would up the unemployment rate for accountants, actuaries, negotiators, and lobbyists plus the hotel & server types, though...so you see how this is a policy box of some dimension...
Meantime, House talks on healthcare break down in anger. Quick, look surprised. --- Let me check my BP now...OMG 142 palp...no more coffee...
Back Peddling No, the mess involving the white officers and black professor is not economic. But, it's getting more press column inches than most anything else in politics lately. President O "seeks to clarify" his remarks in the matter. --- I use occasions like this to see who's sucking up to the administration and who's reporting 'just the facts, 'mam..." Here's a fine example...
Meantime, the original arrest report can still be found if you know where to look. --- But just to show you how such things distract the public: "Gates +Henry" gets 11,269 Google News hits this morning. The search "Iran +nuclear" gets barely more with 16,754.
My, aren't news dynamics fun to watch?
Around The Ranch: A few Emails Answered Let's start with...
Oh, I did...no question about it. What was interesting was that the 'shadow people" sighting happened as she was dozing off and the sleep paralysis happened a couple of hours later, though.
Another writes:
I can cut you a real deal on reading lessons: I didn't see the shadow person - if you would just drink more/stronger coffee you'd realize that I was reporting my daughter's experience and you would have followed the link to the wiki listing and become educated to the idea that reality does have some odd twists to it. You need to separate the reporter from the story. Reading lessons for you - today only: $74.99 per hour.
Chicagoan Wants to Know Reader wonders why I included Chicago on my list of places I wouldn't be fond of living...
Think he meant New Madrid, but besides good steaks, chops, pizza, and wind, Chicago just has too many people. I like to live in areas where the population per square mile is fairly low. Cook County, IL is 945.8 square miles and 5.294 million humans. That's 5,597 people per square mile. Population of Anderson County Texas is 56,838 in 1,070.8 square miles. Just 53 people per square mile. Still, you won't find yourself in rush hour traffic jams since a fair number of the population (4,000+) are incarcerated at the local prison and they don't drive much. Actually pencils out to 49.4 people per square miles that way.
So I ask you: With 113-times more people per square miles to get in your way on the highway or at the store checkout lines, where would you want to live? --- See you Monday morning...unless you're a Peoplenomics subscriber, in which case, a discussion on timing and how to go about buying a home on the cheap this weekend... --- Send comments to george@ure.net The UrbanSurvival Mall: Peoplenomics This Week: Calm Before the (Cytokine) Storm This week’s Peoplenomics report is a little outside of our usual economics perspective but worth sharing since I’ve been doing a lot of personal research this past week into the upcoming expected outbreak of virulent novel/swine flu in the USA this fall and winter. Because it’s expected to result in a fair number of fatalities, and since I need all the readers I can get, I’ve put together a reasonably comprehensive look at what to expect and some personal courses of action when (more than if) swine flu comes to your neighborhood. This is not medical advice – for that, see your health care professional (or local shaman). This is a survey of what’s out there to be learned and some thoughts on how it may be individually applied. My market outlook as usual accompanies in this week’s Chart Pack. More For Subscribers Subscription Information MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear has nailed a great solution for people who living in apartments and condos who want to become at least partially self-reliant when it comes to raising food: An ultra-high efficiency micro-hydroponics system using readily available local parts. 25-pages and plenty of pictures to turn you into a farmer no matter where you live (Great if you have back problems, too...)...or if you just want to fill up the back yard with MyGroPonics trees and feed the neighborhood... $10 bucks here...
Maxa-Cookie Manager The newest version of Maxa-Tools Cookie Manager (MCM) is available. Existing users of MAXA Cookie Manager Pro use the update button in the about window, all others can download the Standard version here: Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those pesky 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster. I took over 1,000 cookies off my son's machine that he swore was clean. It ran much faster.
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world.
Help US Go Viral UrbanSurvival has a dandy growth rate, but sadly, it's nothing like swine (hybrid) flu's growth rate. However, if you'd like to sicken the PowersThatBe, just click here for a tool that may help. (It'll pop up an email window if you use Outlook (or a few other email programs) then simply send a link to everyone on your distro list...
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday July 24, 2009 Mass Layoffs Update As I've been sort of expecting (grimly) we have the newest Mass Layoff report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics out:
So if every picture is worth a thousand words, try this:
Next day to put your head in the sand (or somewhere darker and with a worse odor) is August 7th when the new jobless figures come out. I have a dart on 9.,8% officially and 225,000 statistically created/semi-fictional jobs using the CES birth/death model.
The Wall of Worry
Helping or Hindering? So is president Obama helping the US image overseas improve? The AP has a story that "Obama boosts US image abroad." Although I read this morning on the Jerusalem Post's editorial page some comments about how the "...Obama administration has made a strategic decision to pressure Israel pointedly, relentlessly and publicly, while, for now at least, asking little of the Palestinians." So, I guess it depends who you ask... --- The Drudge Report has word that presidential domestic popularity is below 50% now.
But frankly, that's perfectly understandable since the job is impossible until special interests and their ilk are banished from The District and have to operate from states.
We understand the need to keep terrorists out of Washington but not lobbyists? Which is more dangerous to the nation's future, I'd ask you?
As long as I'm on the soap box: Why States haven't made all out of state campaign contribution illegal shows how deep the political purchasing system goes, eh? Speaking of states and dough...here's another reason to demonetize politics:
Troubles of New Jersey Headline in the NY Post this morning: "FBI arrests Mayors, Rabbis in New Jersey Sweep." Caps a 10-year investigation of money laundering. Should be interesting to follow details as they emerge. "Laundering money from where to where?" wonders the reporter in me.
Beyond 'Vaccinating Children" Department While many Americans are grappling with possible mandatory novel/swine flu vaccinations for kids of school age (and not able to home school them, and not aware of opt-out options), be thankful that you don't have kids in North Korea. Al Jazeera has a headline today about how 'N Korea 'tests weapons on children" which goes into the horrors of testing on "mentally deficient or physically challenged" kids.
The report goes on to report bioweapons may be aboard 30% of North Korea's missile fleet which is really sick. No make that Il.
Record Cold Don't want to point you back to old linguistics reports, but from six months or so back we were supposed to be seeing record cold and rains making headlines this summer. Sure enough, lookie here: Coolest July 24 on record expected in the Northeast today with an advisory from the National Weather Service that...
Gosh, don't tell Al Gore and the carbon credit cabal about this... If you really need something to worry about, consider what ocean currents slowing down will do to climate...that'll smoke your brain. Let me help with your homework:
And the best of all against this backdrop:
Don't want to blow your emotional investment in political hyperbole, after all, it's part of why keeps you under control and immobilized, let alone free-thinking, but I trust before you flame me with media-induced groupthink you'll at least take the time to read "Peer-Reviewed Study Rocks Climate Debate! 'Nature not man responsible for recent global warming...little or none of late 20th century warming and cooling can be attributed to humans' "
Oh,
and Robert Felix's site "Ice Age Now" (his books: Not by Fire but by Ice: Discover What Killed the Dinosaurs...and Why It Could Soon Kill Us
I trust you've got your computational atmospherics supercomputer at the ready to figure out what happens if global warming (think past tense here ) caused mass glacial melt that in turn slowed the thermohaline conveyor, which in turns chills out the upper latitudes and brings on a mini (or full blown) Ice Age? Which argues that anywhere south of past glaciations (or the mason-Dixon line, just to pick another landmark out) is a good place to own farm land. Which...gee...what a coincidence, huh?
Folks in the South were wrong with "The South shall rise again." Closer to the mark might have been something like "The North shall freeze again."
Or we could oscillate as described in the paper "Impacts of multidecadal climate oscillations on marine ecosystems and fish stocks" which I just know you've read, while debating whether to stay in the seafood business, right?
Especially the part that mentions "a sea temperature signal of about 60 to 70 years period" which gets us to wondering if it might be related to longer wave economics? Oh, my head hurts...
Global Coastal Phenomena, Revisited Remember earlier this week I was telling you that NOAA was reporting tides 1-2 feet above normal along the US East Coast (capitalized for all the right coasties who think themselves somehow smarter than left coasties)? Well, lookie here: A high tide warning for India is out...
Glacial melt tie-in?
Turkey of a Story America's latest threat to homeland security - a wild turkey in New Joyzee is reported over here. Didn't the FBI just bust a bunch of NJ turkeys?
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Coping: Covering All Bets A lot of people, new to this site, who haven't had time to read all the back issues of the subscription side Peoplenomics ($40/year), have been sending in emails like this one...
Fine question - and this reader is far from alone. I've had a number of people call wanting to buy some of my consulting time ($75, BTW) which is do not sell to individuals. My area of practice is a) general management of companies, b) operations of companies, c) sales and marketing of companies and d) strategic planning. I am not a financial planner - but having said that, I do have some strong thoughts on the subject.
Had a couple call from L.A. yesterday, just as an example. They happen to have a windfall like the reader, such they are a bit over 7-figures liquid at the moment, and having caught me in a mellow/talkative mood, we chatted for a while and I outlined the following to them. Mind you these are my opinions only, but it does get around to answering the reader's question:
Friday Fun Department Reader Note: The following article assumes you know that a 'lorem ipsum" generator is software code that generates 'nonsense text' which is used in the art and graphics word to as 'dummy text' which will give you an idea of how something will look when text is added...OK? Now continue on to... ---
Not only is this a dandy way to bulk up those anorexic reports that you're too lazy to write, but with a good opening paragraph or two, most people don't notice because no one is likely to ever read them.
What's more, if you ever find yourself bored - I mean really bored - here are some other dandy ways to use Lorem ipsum text:
Last but not least, my favorite pastimes:
"My God, George, what is in your coffee this morning?" Been a tough week, what can I say?
Grasshoppers in the WuJo Readers have sent in a few replies to my notes on how the whole world may be bad next-dimension-neighbors with all out Hadron colliding and nuke testing. A few notes:
No, grasshopper, you are not thinking. You're recalling previous programming. The Empire is Safe as long as you don't start acting independently.
Not So Funny Money A reader sent in this interesting email about going through the 'Bens'...
Which is almost as bad as calling a Ford a 'found on road dead' - but if you really want bad auto humor try this: "Know what you call a car that gets into a minor fender bender with a Hummer?" A Hum-Dinger? (rimshot) [audience groans and wonder if there isn't something stronger than coffee around...]
In the Works: How to Buy A House Cheap Working on a really cool report for Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend: How (and When) to buy a house cheap. Vee haff vays... This could be one of those 'windows of opportunity' that doesn't come along too often and when it does, some note how to do it. If you're over 50, it may not be too interesting, but if you're one of America's young (anyone under 60 has suddenly become young to me...) then definitely something to read on personal wealth-building. --- Also in the works, my commodity broker JB has been collecting notes on "How to Get the Most When You Buy Sell A Car"...we may turn it into a cheapie ebook if there's any interest. Besides being the 'father of MyGroPonics" [see below - keep reading] he's also what's politely called a 'gear head' which is a person who builds engines, sprays Candy Apple and knows how to 'clay' a car is all about. Details, details, as they say. Should be interesting.
Thursday July 23, 2009 Second Depression Details OK, so you don't thumb through the daily press briefing materials from FEMA, but here's a dandy that just smacks of FEMA getting ready for some serous problems later on this summer and into what linguistically shapes up as a tempestuous fall & winter...
I would just love to be a mouse in the corner at one of these meetings because while everything seems 'normal' there's a developing cloud on our economic horizon, which if it comes with what linguistics project will be demonstrations at banks and such, will no doubt involve state responses since the feds don't have enough manpower - nor do their contractors - to put down unhappy people who may figure out this fall that most of their life savings has been wiped out by egregious greed in the financial products industry.
My consigliore (attorney) called to say that Didier Sornette (UCLA, who has been applying geophysical signal techniques used in earthquake predictions to market crashes) has us in another window shortly.
And then Robin Landry advised me to check page 18 of the latest from the St. Louis Fed. This is a jaw dropper:
You see what the rally and the Easter Bunny have in common, right?
Depression Highway As the country continues devolving into a second Depression, acknowledged few places but here, the difficulty of average American families, like ours, continue to be evidenced by other figures beside banking and stock figures. Take for example the headline that "GM global sales fall 22 pct in first half of 2009." --- My wife Elaine has been trying to figure out what she wants to drive for about six months now, ever since we decided that the long paid-for Daewoo will need to be replaced since parts availability has become an issue. Yesterday she noticed that Chrysler was offering either $4,500 rebates or zero percent interest for up to 72-months.
I reminder her that folks like us who bought responsibly in 2001, buying a car with a combined 21-MPG rating don't qualify for the $4,500 beater-bate, since it got passable mileage.
We also aren't too thrilled with most of the new offerings out there, although we got close to making an offer on a 2-year old Infiniti M series sports coupe a couple of weeks back. That was until I discovered that the typical 60,000 transmission service would likely cost more than $1,000. "They send 'em to the Bahamas for rework?" I asked.
Today, she'll be eyeing a 2001 Mercedes M320 SUV (76K miles) which I think can be had for under $10,000. Keeping it on the road shouldn't be too difficult since many parts are reportedly interchangeable with Chrysler - the car was made in the USA. But if that doesn't fly, there's an Eddie Bauer Expedition due in which we'll look at, too. Trying to support the local one-time Chrysler dealership which has a good service department - a rarity in this world. --- You saw where "Chrysler and G.M. defend dealer cuts to Congress" on Wednesday?
Here's the part which none of the auto execs has addressed, so I might as well put it out there: Take the local Chrysler dealership that was on the closure list. Hasn't it occurred to anyone but cynical George that if the dealerships were not profitable their owners wouldn't keep them open?
For a bunch of 'free-traders' when it comes to sneaky NAFTA Highway plans, or selling off taxpayer-owned roads to subsidiaries of the King of Spain to selectively ignore how the real free market works and fire dealers rather than let the free market iron out the playing field just boggles my mind.
Granted, I've only gone through an MBA, but tell me again why free trade and free market jingoism applies to China-Mart, but doesn't apply to the local guys who own local dealerships and got by on honest dealings and good service...
To put if directly: If these local dealerships were such financial turds, they would have been wiped out already by market forces; you following this? Something stinks here...
Why aren't the automakers upping dealer prices across the board? Hand me a clothes pin!
Porsche Writing Lesson Being a (very old) 930 owner, I notice headlines like "Porsche CEO steps down, making way for VW merger."
Let me draw your attention to the first line of the story: "Porsche chief executive Wendelin Wiedeking is leaving the luxury sports car maker after 16 years at the helm, a move widely expected to clear the way for a merger with Volkswagen AG."
Maybe I've been hanging around Cliff and worrying about linguistics too much, but wouldn't there be better subject/noun agreement if Wiedeking had been described as leave "after 16-years at the wheel" of Porsche? Catalina's, Hunter's, and even shipping container outfits like Alexander Baldwin...gosh, helming those makes sense. But Porsches? Don't tell the gnomes of Stuttgart about the imprecision of our language...
Maybe Ford & Chevy were onto something, though, giving cars animal names to keep things simple for us. Mustangs, Impalas, Cougars. Or places/ Why Toyota would pick "Tacoma" for God's sake, is another mystery. Or going places in variously Caravans, Mountaineering, Ridgerunning, and so forth. OK, forget I mentioned helming, then...Detroit has so screwed up the auto language by comparing it to jets (with cockpits and doing Mach 1) that we're all hopelessly lost in a sea of conflicted thoughts...
Thought Police The report out of WCNC that a "Conservative kiosk not allowed at mall" reminds me that lately free speech is becoming less and less free.
In fact, if you look really close, you'll see how 'free speech' itself is being monetized; an art refined by the special interests that run Washington.
The Founders were all about balance and best I can tell from reading the headlines closely, America as a nation has pretty well lost its balance ever since making money became more important than making superiors products, an event that I lay at the feet of the credit card companies methodical dissection of usury laws....
IL Comments I'm no fan of North Korea, by any stretch, but the headline that "N Korea: Clinton 'funny lady, by no means intelligent' is worth noting. Figuring out first how to build nuclear weapons and then this...why these folks are not to be under-estimated. --- Cliff's suggestion on how to solve the Korea crisis made perfect sense: air drop food on them and see how long the regime lasts. Hell, we've got enough left over auto product that we could put a Pontiac in every garage in Pyongyang while we're at it. See how long they'd last with a middle class having car payments; not that we're doing all that well lately...
Don't be Confused The headline that "Biden to meet with the Georgia Opposition" doesn't mean he's flying into Atlanta. --- Veep-Joe has been stating the obvious of late...almost like he's gone to the Yogi Berra School of clear thought "When you come to a fork in the road, take it" is one of my favorites.
"More troops will die in Afghanistan, says Biden" reaches out to us this morning along with his saying that the "war is in interests of UK and US."
Yeah, I don't remember too many wars in history that weren't in the interests of the antagonists. Say, are those poppies over there?
Move Zealand Yes, new Zealand is on the move. there's so much dancing mountains and plates spinning about that we've given up trying to mention them all.
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Coping: Mysteries at the WuJo I refer to that strange place where woo-woo (Wu) events of my otherwise Complete Reality School of Life meet on the mat of High Strangeness, now and then as - and this is not to offend Aikidoists, Judo experts, or the memory of Bruce Lee from I saw him during Chinatown days in Seattle - the WuJo. Fine days, those. Art Louie's and the old school hadn't yet been replaced by Tai Tung and subsequent eateries and the place still had that bit of Asia that occupied the mind's eye somewhere between being Shanghaied, as water the case on the pre-fire days in turn of the century Seattle, and the mystery of why it was up what seemed like 200-steps to the largest of the tong's (family association) meeting halls south of Jackson Street. Ah, such times. The smell and the eye candy which ran from everything fresh and Asian to the hookers who plied their trade between 6th and 7th Avenues. Quite the colorful place. --- The modern WuJo is the technical antithesis of such times. Semi-isolated, and whatever comes along invades the pastoral solemnity of the place arrives by either FedEx, UPS, any of five satellite dishes, or one of the over-sized internet connections or the multiple phone lines..
Still, every so often, the mysteries and mysterious show up unannounced and the latest pair of event worth reporting was that my 28-year old daughter Allison, who called a couple of days back to report on a personal experience with high strangeness.
"Dad, the weirdest thing happened: I was laying in bed and out of the corner of my eye I saw this shadowy figure and it was like it was looking at me. But the strange part is that it was kinda there and not there - and then after a few minutes it disappeared. Not only that, but a little while later, I awoke and I couldn't move. It was like something was sitting on my chest and holding me down. What the hell was going on?"
"Oh, that's just an encounter with the shadow people," I explained in as soothing a voice as I could muster. "No big deal. They seem to be attracted to people in period of emotional stress and they may has a taste, if you will, for people's fears."
"This isn't just some bull sh*t you're making up, is it?"
"Hell no.... Go wiki Shadow People - you've got your 'puter on, right?"
"yeah....OK....hold on....slow connection here.... Oh my God! That's what I saw! The one on the right, the hooded one. How do you know about Shadow people? Tell me what you know..." --- What followed was a long conversation about how the universal subconscious works, dimension boundaries, how half asleep people do state-changes, how things like Shadow People may be incompletely materialized whatevers from the Universe next door, and a discussion about how in the Hugh Everett's Many World's Interpretation of physics, there's no end of the possibilities. I mean, has it occurred to you yet that the reason UFO's showed up in 1948 - 90 miles from where the first atomic bomb went off, that in an inter-dimensional sense we've become in the multiverse what would be the equivalent of very bad neighbors banging on the walls? No telling what the hell a nuclear explosion does to the reality next door to this one..."
She seemed satisfied and that was it for her encounter with high strangeness, although she's now reading the subject in depth, since her older sister Denise (31) who is in nursing school has been having such encounters with oddities from somewhere else since she was about seven years old.
Honestly, since Allison asked Denise about her experiences, I've been wondering it the Wu-Wu would spill over into Denise's world, just both live just outside the walls of the WuJo.
I didn't have long to wait. In fact, only until 3:02 this morning when the phone rang. It was Denise.
"Hey dad? The weirdest thing just happened, right? It's 1 o'clock in the morning and I'm sitting at my desk studying and my egg timer in the kitchen started ringing. I haven't used it for a long time...and it just started ringing and ringing and ringing... I'm like freaked out."
"You know what time of the morning it is?"
"Yeah, a couple of minutes after 1 o-clock, why?"
"You know I got no sleep last night because I was up all night last night on a radio show?"
"Yeah dad, but I'm freaked. There was no reason for the time to ring. It just rang and rang - longer that even when I use it. What do you think it was?"
I then launched into one of my best extemporaneous lines of BS I've ever done at 3 AM from a deep sleep. Explained how with the recent hot weather in Seattle, no doubt what had happened was that the timer's spring, due to the heating and contraction in the kitchen, or the stop that ends the bell-ringing, had broken or changed somehow, no doubt due to the day cooling from a high in the 90's to a low in the 60's. Or, something in the egg timer had rusted and chosen that moment to fail.
About 15-minutes later, she was calmed down and going back to her studying.
What I didn't tell her, and may (or may not) mention (she doesn't read my site) is that paranormal/extraordinary energies tend to run in families. My own personal strangeness has something to do with time/space - a couple of seeing things remotely around when they happened while in I was asleep a few hundred miles from the site of a emotional events (a police arrest in one case and an emergency appendectomy in the other) impacting one of the kids; experienced by me in an almost shamanistic dream state. Turns out my son has had a couple of similar 'seeing' events. And his sisters? Well, shadow people and a ringing timer.
My best guess, halfway into the first cup of mental accelerant, is that while Denise hasn't been seeing 'others' for a while, that part of her subconscious was tickled or poked when Allison asked her about aliens and shadow people she's been encountering since age seven, and that pushed Denis back in touch with that part of her inner self that she had been consciously ignoring. I expect that thanks to her current preoccupation with reductionist/single-verse living, this somehow reminded here of that connection she'd had to 'them' in the past, so they decided to 'give her a ring'. --- One of the odd possibilities of our approach to 2012, the evolving second depression, and the increasing frequency & magnitude of events is that our collective consciousness will be thrashed about and it's possible - just possible - mind you, that barriers between dimensions and state of being will become less clearly defined than classical physics would like.
Just as we're starting to catch up with the evolving Russian and Chinese thinking on zero-point energy, we may very well discover that not only can energy be sucked out of other dimensions, but that aspects of people can travel there are well. At the wildest extensions, one can almost envision (hold on, this is an odd concept here) being able to tap into the energy different between a heaven and hell.
While that might do wonders for the power bill, there is always the risk of unintended consequences associated with such adventures. One remembers that Europeans killed millions of First People in the new-found (by them, from their limited perspective, right?) Americas and has to ask a very intelligent question about tapping into inter-dimensional power sources.
Could we in advertently create new 'leaks' around such things as the Philadelphia Experiment, the Montauk Project, and more recently the rush of junior experimenters (including me) who are trying this and that to attempt to tap into zero-point energy for what seem like reasonable motives? --- A decent mental construct for what may be going on now would be any of the post World War II submarine movies. "Run Silent, Run Deep" might be a good starter film. Or, perhaps something like "The Enemy Below" will give you the sense of it.
What you'll be watching for in any of the submarine flicks, is the part where a pipe bursts and water starts to leak in. A little water - any graduate of BESS at New London knows this - is usually addressable by routing to back-up systems. But, if the flow gets beyond a certain point, where pumps can't keep up with water intrusion into a sub, there's only one outcome: The sub goes down, often with disastrous outcomes that in the history books may be found under headings like "K-219 and Augusta" or the loss of the "Scorpion" in 1968.
Failures of submarines don't happen just while submerged, either, as the Cavalla/Thresher story reveals. The batteries may simply become so depleted that restarting the power plant - in Thresher's case a reactor - are not possible without outside assistance. The Thresher was later lost to become the first US nuclear sub loss. --- When the kids call in their various encounters with 'strange' I find myself wondering "Is there any connection between what the kids are experiencing and all the zero-point work? Wonder what will happen in October of this year when the Large Hadron Collider is supposed to go live again?
Maybe its from talking to so many docs lately about novel/swine flu, but when new magnetics may have the potential to do things like seriously warp space/time, I wonder if we shouldn't be stepping back a bit to wonder in advance "Is this was good next door dimensional neighbors would do?"
I must be the only nutjob out there who's measured the distance from Roswell to Alamogordo, or looked at crop circles while asking "Is this an eviction notice from some next door dimension?
Seems like if we are serious about meeting 'other' life forms, we ought to set up some very strong magnetic beacon in a truce zone and run if for a few years to at least put a 'homing beacon' with some digital encoding to it that would ask "Knock, knock...anyone there?" before we do further nuking and warping.
Just a thought, of course, but instead of SETI (Search for extraterrestrial intelligence), maybe we ought to ponder SEDI - a search for extra dimensional intelligence.
Might be incredibly productive, since we all go 'extra-dimensional' after x number of years anyway....
Lost In Space Still haven't had time to collate all my 'broken machinery' reports from the past week, but if in the past two weeks or so, you've had a run-in with easily broken machinery, send in your report - will get it compiled by Tomorrow or Saturday. But here's one of interest just as a sample..
Me either... Wednesday July 22, 2009 Prime Time Pitchman Missing Billy Mays, are you? Well, tonight, president Obama takes to the air to pitch his national healthcare plan which so far, best I can reckon, no one in congress has read through yet.
Pardon me while I reach for the Dramamine, but I get a little wobbly feeling when in the reports of the six month report card that phrases like 'we rescued the economy' are being bandied about. A bit early, don'tcha think?
Not to put too fine a point on it, but isn't it a little early for claiming victory yet, since...
A couple of weeks of crack-head hyperactivity in the financial markets doesn't mean we've been cured of what ails us in finance. It just means that in the midst of the fever delirium has set in and as I've been saying for how many months now, a trip to 9,700 is a distinct possibility before the financial hangover returns.
I would be pleased if the six-month report card proves accurate, but seems just too early in the game to be declaring victory. Nice thing about this, however, from the standpoint of our predictive linguistics work is it lays out a dandy real world test: It should be clear-cut by mid November at the latest (mid-September at the earliest) whether the linguistics are correct saying things are about to get much worse, or whether the administration's optimistic take is the correct assessment of things.
You'd never guess what my money's on...
Eclipsed I stayed up all night waiting to see the eclipse. All night long during the CoastToCoastAM show I kept looking anxiously out the window. Nothing. Night like always... (You know I'm kidding, right?) --- What a marketing program by Mitsubishi, huh?
Crudely Put Crude oil inventories are due out today. With the economy 'saved' how come I expect a little inventory build? Shouldn't inventories fall as demand picks up? Well?
Summer's a Riot Meme "Riot police separate protesters in Texas town." Not getting a lot of play yet in the MSM but it fits might fit the start of summer of hell comes to the USA...
Rioting in S. Korea continues at an auto plant. Rioting prisoners have taken over a penitentiary in Ontario.
Also worth mentioning is that demonstrations although banned were going on in Tehran again yesterday. Wonder if I should trademark the word "twiot" - a twittering induced riot. As in 'flash twiot". Anarchists would love this from a marketing standpoint. Something like "Twiot - You'll like it..." Send a dime for each use, please...
(Yea gads...how much coffee have I had since last night?)
A Litter Bit Unusual Bums dumping a five-foot shark in Miami? Oh boy...this sounds fishy...OK, how about police are fishing for leads? No? Call Mike Hammerhead? Arrghhhh....and stop humming Mack the Knife!
(*If you're under 50-something, go read the lyrics to Bobby Darin's song Mack the Knife [Oh, the shark, babe, has such teeth, dear..." to catch up...Say, are those Zig-Zag's you have there?)
They'd Rather Not... But the CBS lawsuit by Dan Rather is back on. Except now he gets access to something like 3,000 CBS documents related to his 60-Minutes piece on former budget prez GW's military career...no make that military...damn, just can't think of the word for it. Military something though....
Money Matters But let's just shove all that newsy stuff off to the side for a moment and look where the market is going in the next couple of weeks. If we get a top between now and August 22, how high could it be? my chart-darts are on the 10,300 range. 10,319 is where the dart landed, what can I say? Real quick-like rally, too and maybe only 9,700 but what the heck.
That 10,319 level would be a 50% retracement (approximately) from the 2007 highs to the March '09 lows.
And who says war is bad for the economy? Look at Boeing profits up strong on defense sales. That is why we need wars - keep the economy going between housing and internet busts, eh? Look what happened to Whirlpool: profits down. Maybe they need to open a defense division, yah think?
You saw where Hong Kong banks are planning to pay back Lehman Brothers financial products investors something like $800-million? Not before the former Goldman competitor went toes up, but so goes life in the cash lane.
Market futures are down a bit. No worries unless we get a pullback below 8,146, or so. But that's not financial advice...just water cooler talk.
Want market advice? Consult the I Ching... 50 yarrow stalks or a 50-day moving average, what's the diff here lately?
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Coping: Preparing for Much with Little First, a thank-you for George Noory for having Cliff High and me on the Coast To Coast AM show last night/early this morning - Noory is a masterful interviewer and a good human being.
Following the show, a couple of readers sent in questions that went to the idea of "What can I do to prepare for even more calamitous times ahead, which may include food shortages and such if I just have a tiny amount of money that can be spared? I can just barely make ends meet now."
A good question. There are plenty of answers, too, which will depend on where you are and what level of preparing you're willing to invest in. I say 'invest' because that what preparedness is, in its most generalized kind of way...investing today in learning and saving in ways that never cross most people's thinking, since they are so used to the day-after-day routine. Why, to this kind of person, those of us that actually have thought out survival beyond 'more of the same' really are nutjobs.
Education: This part doesn't have to cost much at all. Starts with something as simple as a library are and having the sense to read 2-3 general books on survival like the SAS Survival Manual, for example. Then, reading up on local wildlife and learning what plants are edible (not to mention which wild beasties thing you're the edible) is an investment anyone can make.
Throw in a couple of books on basic survival housing: Lean-to's, teepees, and such are quick to make from most anything at hand and properly done can keep you out of the weather.
Own a Knife: But this gets me to the second thing you should have: A good pocket knife. Knife selection is one of those very personal decisions - and lots of people have a half dozen knives, depending on where they plan on going.
Just to put it in perspective, I've got five knives that make up my personal knife collection and with the right knife, I feel more prepared than most for anything that comes along. Sure, there's the $20 eBay survival knife with an 8-inch blade, a built-in compass, fishing gear, and such. Just the ticket for out on the wilder parts of the property and beyond if on foot.
Just going out to dinner? That three-blade folding Case knife that was passed on to me by my father (my so expects to inherit it, too) is the all-purpose family relic. Need to pick a thorn out of your foot? Trim back 3/8th's of an inch of insulation while wiring? Whittle something down that isn't fitting right in the shop? Something that takes a nearly fine-enough-to-shave-with edge? This is the one - and plenty of time sharpening follows after a big electrical job of any size, LOL.
The all-round knife is a 3 1/2 single blade, one-handed opening knife - again, about $20 off eBay. That's the one that gets used for cutting up cardboard boxes when something comes via UPS or FedEx.
If I'm mucking about on machinery, the Leatherman tool is great. And both Elaine and I have steels with flints, so if there's tinder about, there's fire. Torn up credit card bills are recommended tinder if things hit the fan, LOL.
Assuming you can hang onto a library card and can read up on knives, even with a cheap pocket stone for sharpening you're looking at all of what, $25?
Better Clothes - Forget Logos: You will want to maybe change your clothes-buying habits. Forget brands and go with practical. Heavy denim will last longer than cotton twills, heavy shirts are generally warmer than light shirts. Tick socks better for long walks than thin ones, and the thicker the sole on the shoe, with bigger grips, the easier walking long distances will be, should you need to use your legs for something besides walking from the computer to the shower, shower to car, car to cubicle. Doesn't have to cost anything more - just a change of tastes so that you can exist outside if you have to, or walk somewhere if there's no gas, or it's price makes turns it into rarium or unobtainium.
Water Container: Next thing you'd want would be a water container of some kind, since people are 70+% water. lots of options here...everything from a sophisticated 'gator' kind that you wear to a regular bottled water bottle with some water purification tablets in a smaller container taped to it. Water's a good thing and thirst is bad. Hang with the REI and camping crowd. If you've got a load of dough, a Berky water filter is marvelous. But tabs and household bleach (unscented, of course - duh) and disinfecting tabs is cheaper.
May not seem like much, but depending on what part of the country you're in (or can walk to) this is the start of basic survival. Then start watching SurvivorMan and other such TV shows. Much to be gleaned from that.
A simple pack: You can get a simple kid's book bag for less than $10 if you hang at the dollar stores or WallyWorld on sale. May not be fancy (come on, you've always wanted one in pink, right? LOL) but we're talking function here and screw the rest.
Basic food: Long term food looks to be an issue, so to solve that problem you can make a basic stored foods plan with something as a 20-pound sack of white rice (brown may have more nutritional value) and a couple of sacks of beans. A multiple vitamin and some granola bars are a bonus.
A friend of mine up the road bought come PVC pipe 13-years ago and stored away wheat flower in it and says it's still good. A little care and caution a person can accumulate a tremendous amount of food over time and store it safely.
Radio - optional: For less than $50 you can get one of those all-purpose crank-powered radios with a flashlight and NOAA weather radio in it. There's entertainment and such. Optional though. If it clouds up, get your rain hat - First People lived for centuries without NOAA.
Also cheap: Boy Scout and Girl Scout used field manuals. Boy Scouts is quite good and I still refer to my 1950's vintage copy often when I think about building a bridge over the creek here, or some such.
Bow for Hunting: Since you've got a pocket knife, you can take up archery with either an inexpensive bow and hand hewn arrows, or a few fiberglass items. May not put the tastiest meat on the table, but people in other countries eat things like squirrels and rats when necessary, although a blunt head instead of a broadhead is to be considered for game birds.
While you whittle out additional arrows (and mount the feathers from your latest grouse or whatever) the next thing I'd invest in - while there's still computers and power is the four DVD set of 22,000 survival books from SurvivaleBooks.com. This is a collection of mostly government training manuals for everything from the 1994 Navy Cooking Course (but they never explain why spoons dissolve in Navy coffee by midway through the second watch) to escape and evasion, or on a more down-to-earth note "How do you live without electricity?"
Backpack to shove things in, some paper and a binder for key field identification guides and some time spent on learning a new hobby - relearning about being a competent human - is not that expensive. Our budget?
Want that radio to keep from being bored to tears? OK, $50 bucks then...but that bored part is where you get into nature and hear other voices like the wind - and a lot more.
Would it be nice to have something more than a cheapie kids backpack? Sure! Would it be nice to have that Berky filter? Yer damn straight, it would be. Or, that (fill in the blank) MRE a pack full of those dandy ready-to-eat meals you just add hot water to. Yum. But, you get the idea.
Next I'd be adding a first aid kit, bug repellant...but as you can see, this is like any other hobby or pursuit - depends if you want to approach it from the 'heavy on the toys' or the 'heavy on the knowledge' side, doesn't it?
Ultimately, I'm hoping the web bot predictive work is wildly off the mark. But, if it's even close, my confidence in our personal survival of the future is much higher as my knowledge of everything from MOUT tactics (military operation in urban terrain) to eating off the land - goes up.
For America to survive - we need to only do a couple of things: Uphold the Constitution and push back against all enemies, foreign and domestic whether they come armed with a violent ideology or a phat purse and a standing army of lobbyists. Don't know about you, but the Gloria Gaynor song comes to mind (maybe because I've been up all night?) -- it's "I will survive..." and if you take back ownership of your life from the corpgov brainwashing that has been mainstream media of late, not only will you survive it all in stride as a more powerful human, but so will you and those you love.
I'm just sayin....you can make your own version of geocaching if you really want to have some options. But even that would break down in a crustal shift...so maybe the 'old ways' are more durable.
Around UrbanSurvival: Changes and Newbies Every time I do a radio show - especially one with as large a following as Coast To Coast - I point people to the FAQ page. Another question is "Where's that old web bot stuff?" See the directory of past columns here.
Long time readers will ask "What's that new dot up in the upper right hand corner of the page?" Link to the Princeton EGGS Global Consciousness Project...since one reader said there was a spike when the bot run was released. Coincidence? Well....let's just watch the EGG's around big events going forward, shall we?
Machinery's Revenge This is probably 'pay the mechanics day' - the Daewoo, the Kubota...and turns out I am not the only one who turned most everything mechanical I touched this week into non-op scrap metal. More when I get some sleep....how about tomorrow morning, then?
Tuesday July 21, 2009 New Bot Run Released Want to get a decent handle on what we're expecting in the way of news events over the next year and a half or so? Got $10-bucks? Then head over to www.halfpasthuman.com and download the newest "Shape of things to come" report. This one runs 40+ pages and covers all kinds of things ranging from our expected price of previous metals by the end of 2010, plus a number of very unpleasant developments in the socioeconomic arena. Dead folks in the millions, just to give you an idea.
Cliff and I will be on with George Noory tonight on CoastToCoastAM at 1 AM Eastern/10PM Pacific to talk about the report and what it means. --- Besides the warning about how grim the contents are (they are really grim), having studied the contents for a couple of days what strikes me is that much of what's out there in the way of 'future predictions' (we're not the only folks in that space) are developed by other forecasters taking existing trends are then making more-or-less linear extrapolations. That'd be scary enough, but wowzer...the period beginning in a month, or so, building into fall and through next year, looks like many part of the model go seriously nonlinear...and that's the part which will catch most people by surprise, I expect.
One other warning: You may not want to read it at work, or you won't get much done. --- Speaking of "Coast", I was on with Ian Punnett back on January 2, 2009 for their annual 'predictions' show and at the time put up the notes on how the year 2009 would work out generally. Here's the overview:
Just to pick on one part of the January 2009 forecast, consider this (page 11):
Already, we've seen California marched to 'the wall" although in the short term, it looks like a "California budget deal closes $26-billion gap." I trust you noticed that the White House missed a deadline for reporting planned spending cuts? We may get some thing early, but in the end we're often right.
Want to be very clear here that we are not endorsing the 'falling apart' of the cou8ntry or government, just forecasting here, but it's shaping up pretty much right on forecast.
National spending on 'recovery' hasn't (nor will it) have much impact, since so much of Stimulus one was pork (2/3'rds) versus meat (1/3'rd) which means another stimulus will likely be needed, but we may have 'shot the wad' for the dollar already.
But that gets me around to reminding you that predictive linguistics is just that - a prediction based on the language surrounding events. So, in terms of looking ahead, it's almost impossible to tell the difference between the reality of economic collapse versus a lot of bespoke words to that effect. What comes up in the data is the bespoke words component.
That may provide a little solace from an otherwise dire report when you read the part on page 42 "Cuban Missile Crisis (1960's): Linguistic Study" which explains how we get the archetype/emotional mood usually bang-on while specifics of events may vary. Anyway, it's a fine read as long as it's taken between meals since it will give the aware reader what I'd describe as an 'expectation framework" in advance, which in turn may prevent 'deer caught in headlines' inaction at the very moment when future events will demand your most decisive and quick responses to avoid potentially fatal consequences.
Not to give anything away, but I have been pointing toward the October 25th (+/-) hot date and worrying like crazy about the potential for an Israeli attack on Iran about then and what do you know, along comes a headline in today's Canadian National Post: "Middle East atomic conflict would kill tens of millions: report". Gee, how comforting.
Port Traffic Collapse, Redux Want a real 'dead canary in the coal mine' to look at with the economy? Look at West Coast Port Container traffic...especially the foreign cargo coming into the US.
The Port of Seattle reports TEU's (twenty-foot equivalents) down 21.7% compared with year-ago YTD operations. Inbound foreign full TEU's which were already down more than 19% in 2008 compared with 2007, and on a YTD basis reports that in June '09 inbound full foreign TEU's are down a further 27% year-to-date. Don't look now, but that's your dead canary.
Yet another port on the West Coast is reporting the effects of falling trade: The Port of Tacoma has released June figures showing that on a year-on-year basis their container traffic is down 14.9% and on a month-on=month basis, traffic is down 19.1% since a year ago.
Sooner, or later, the Port of Portland will post figures, probably here. Maybe this is one of those times when being able to find data easily isn't such a good thing, you think?
Meantime, the Port of Oakland's container statistics showed a 13.9% drop in June on a YTD basis, monthly figures aren't revealed, but 2008 was down 6.1% so guessing down 20% since the frenzied high of 2006/2007 is reasonable.
Why am I so focused on West Coast container trade? Damn fine proxy for how corporate globalism is working out...or as is the present situation, how corporate globalism is failing.
Until I start to see some meaningful increases in YTD port traffic (like up 5-10% on a trailing twelve month basis) I will be filing reports of 'green shoots' where they rightly belong. In the round file.
OTV No small number of readers have asked me (in so many words) "What's with Obama being on TV all the time?" Can't tell you why, except that maybe it's the most efficient way to reach as many people as possible. But, whatever the reason, the OTV folks have had to move a planned primetime press conference because NBC seems to have figured out coverage would be a lot less costly in terms of lost ad revenue from primetime, by moving it to 8 PM (Eastern). Good move.
It's a Hit! But just what hit Jupiter (the planet, which you might have forgotten since things haven't been looking up for a while) is a mystery the folks at NASA are trying to work out.
Taxachusetts A few readers is Messachusett's are up in arms about state plans to tax scooters. --- No sympathy here, though. This got all screwed up when the first automobiles hit the road and people were made to license them.
To my way of thinking (which is a bit odd, admittedly) a country goes from being a democratic republic (which we once were) to a totalitarian state when government stops acknowledging rights and starts selling permissions. A mandatory permission is control.
Believe it, or not, driving your own piece of machinery on public lands was once a right since the lands were commonly owned and your machine was your own. But try that anymore and guess what? Tickey time.
Even though originally, cars were licensed only for use in commerce, the traffic laws and permissions have been extended by government fiat (like the income tax has been extended without a clear definition of 'income'). But, if you don't play the game you get squished all bug-like because the system is so big and individually we are so small.
So, the question is 'Step on the tail of the beast, or wait till it self-destructs?" Shouldn't have more than a year or two to wait once the dollar implosion gets underway in a big way, witness government workers being laid off all over the country already, so pay the protection money and deal with it. For now.
And don't forget to use process! When you get your next property tax revaluation notice and some tin-horn bunglecrat says your home has gone up in price, demand a reduction in valuation since the S&P/Case-Schiller report implies that home prices are down nationally over 30% in the past couple of years. The sword can cut both ways.
Phony Reporting A National Highway Safety Administration long term report on cell phone use among drivers was apparently scrubbed because the agency didn't want to anger congress. Another way of saying they didn't want to do their job, isn't it?
Driving by celling is apparently right up there with drinking and driving, causing almost a thousand fatalities and nearly a quarter of a million accidents in 2002 alone. Took Freedom of Information actions to get at the data, no less. National security issues, you think? Fer cryin' out loud...
So tax scooter owners? Sure. Put facts on the table about cell phone use dangers? Nope. That, my friend is the best government money can buy inaction. Yeah, that's not a typo.
Dancing Mountains Department "Quake, tsunami potential high on U.S. west coast" says a new study out Monday. Seems the risks may have been under-estimated.
Indo Bombing Follow Our one-time Houston Bureau Chief has filed a follow-up on the Jakarta bombings of last weekend:
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Coping: With Collapsing Real Estate Prices A number of people have been sending in reports of how various banks are treating them when they lose their jobs, can't make a full house payment and are on the verge of foreclosing. Several have reported that the banks are allowing them to stay in their homes, even though they are not able to make the payments, if the just pay some kind of nominal 'rent' payment.
Seems the banks have found out (rather the hard way, eh?) that if they don't have people living in a house that they are much more likely to be stripped of their moveable assets; water heaters, granite counters, plumbing, and so forth, than if the home is occupied by an interested owner with at least some prospects of getting it back in the future.
Still, the foreclosure problem continues to grow causing displacements on many fronts. For example, over at the Delaware Online site today we read how unlike the typical 'recession' where an increase in housing construction and sales helps to get the country back on the road to recovery, this one is working just the opposite; acting as a drag on recovery.
There are also reports of small investors actually getting into 'bidding wars' over some of the low-priced homes on the market that would make dandy rental homes, according to an AP story out Monday. This, in turn has sparked comments like "A nation of renters - Obama's dream?" --- Turns out that the situation is even more dire than makes it into the headlines. For one thing, many banks have not yet listed all of the property for sale in the local and regional multiple listing services (MLS's), or if they have, they will put a note like "Sold-B/U" - meaning sold or a 'back-up' deal is being considered when they really don't have any deals at all.
While the S&P/Case-Schiller data suggests that the decline in the price of real estate has nationally averaged about 32-33% (with some extreme variations on a market-by-market basis), the actual sales prices are showing up as even less in anecdotal reports from around the country. For example, in Charlotte, North Carolina, for example, the "Observer" down that way headlines how "Foreclosed homes sold for half price." And that doesn't mean the 'bottom' is in yet. --- A couple of strategies come to mind, depending on whether you're on the 'selling side' or on the 'buying side'.
If you're selling, and this is something I've been watching, you're much better off selling a home as a 'going concern' rather than just a house/box. In other words, if you have a producing garden, maybe a few animals (even chickens will help) along with an independent source of water and maybe some solar or wind power and wood-heating as either primary or back-up, people seem willing to pay for such home because there's a growing awareness that still more trouble may lay in the nation's immediate future. While conventional economics suggests, for example, that the payback period on an installation of new solar power systems could be in the range of 20 to 25-years, based on prevailing 15¢ per kilowatt hour power costs, the payback period drops to under 13-years if the power doubles to 30¢ per kilowatt hour should energy input costs double, or even 6½ - years should the dollar be devalued 75% and input costs quadruple.
People are starting to consider such possibilities in their home shopping. Even some self-sufficiency seems to be carrying a hefty premium over no sufficiency.
Of course, over on the buying side, plenty of reports that people are not able to get commitments to real estate loans, and many banks seems to be playing the old game of TEGWAR. Now, since you probably haven't watched the classic film "Bang the Drum Slowly" lately, TEGWAR Wikipedia defines the game this way:
If you can get a 'commitment' to a real estate loan, consider yourself luck, but even then I've heard that more than a third of deals committed to are failing at close because someone (most often the bank) decides to change rules. Here, about the only terms that I can suggest would be liberate use of the world "lawyer" and both buyer and seller reminding the bank what 'break of contract' can cost when the buyer and seller are both acting in good faith, there's a commitment (get it written, ok?) and the bank changes things at closing.
On the buying side, you can almost look at any piece of property that piques your interest, and go knock on the door and ask if it's for sale. Banks seem to only be telling registered real estate people about the deals; often calls to bank "real estate owned' (REO) departments will go unanswered for days - if ever. --- I don't usually turn on the television to watch officials try to explain the ever-increasing variance between observed reality and what their mental constructs of a situation may be. However, having talked to a few folks in real estate, which has devolved into a huge national tegwar game, today's appearance by Ben Bernanke ought to be and "edumacation" in word-dancing.
Headlines like "Bernanke preps for hot seat on bailouts, recovery" lead me to expect 'the full treatment' in happy-talk and in-action on public display.
It may not be as good as Congressman Stearns of Florida skewering former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson last week for his role in the debacle... but it should be entertaining.
Especially if you read the lead story this morning about West Coast Port Traffic and haven't completely lost your grip on Reality.
Around the Ranch: Machinery Bites Week It's turning into a hell of a week with machinery. The Kubota tractor is at the doctor's office. The PTO engaging fork in the hydrostatic transmission failed at 209.6 hours operating time. And, since the machine went out of its 36-month warranty as of 4/27, the initial word is that I'll be stuck with a thousand dollar bill. That said, I will let you know if Kubota steps up for anything on this...but if they don't guess what my advice will be on tractor brands? --- Then the new radiator for the Daewoo that was being installed as part of the AC repair turned out to have been damaged in shipping. Then when the new A/C charge was put in, the AC inlet valve failed, so another doctor's office for that one. ($350'ish) --- The right side headlamp on the 930 (low beam) went out, so into town this morning to get a replacement. ($50'ish) --- New shop light failed after 2-days and had to take it back to Tractor Supply ($30'ish) --- Hose repair kit for where the hired high school kid ran over it with the riding mower (with expected consequences) didn't fit. ($3.00'ish plus an hour of time) Stuff like that all over the place. --- Lightning took out my 'big pipe onto the interne t till they get parts in this afternoon.... --- Frankly, it's getting to where I dare not touch anything mechanical for a couple of days. I don't generally take astrology seriously, but one planet has my attention this week: Uranus.
Monday July 20, 2009 Another Web Bot Hit: Oh, THAT Global Coastal Phenomena With the scheduled release of the new "Shape of Things to Come" from www.hafpasthuman.com tomorrow - Be sure it is the one with the July publishing date - a number of readers have been pointing at this and that (especially the new blob up in Alaska, for example) and have asked "Is that your global coastal phenomena you've been looking for?"
To refresh your memory on what we had been looking for, based on the predictive linguistics, has been rising waters to indicate the start of some new phenomena that should take about five months to even figure out a name for. In addition, when the conference in Scandinavia reported on sea level changes back in March, that was supposed to set about a 90-day timer since that was to be a preceding temporal (time) marker that the GCE/GCP was about here. Blobs are nice and all, but this just wasn't big enough.
And then NOAA's Tides and Currents team posted this almost unnoticed:
Wow! All kinds of interesting learnings about the linguistics slapping us about with this report.
First observation is that the actual event was taking place right on schedule. What's curious is that we're finding, as in the case of the Chinese earthquake in May 2008, we often get descriptors that only match up closely with the events some number of weeks after the physical event takes place.
In other words, two days prior to the China quake, we were nattering on about how it was to be a "wedding quake" but it wasn't until about two weeks after the actual quake event that the world got the before picture of the weddings interrupted (here) and the after the interruption pictures here.
Similarly, the release of the NOAA Alert (which hasn't gained too much traction in the MSM - only a few heads-up news operations like the Virginia Pilot online has picked it up with "Higher tides affecting East Coast, especially mid-Atlantic") is coming some numbers of weeks after the actual observations of the rising waters.
Of course, that gets us to wondering what might have been causing those tidal changes. Was it just an oddity in the weather patterns along the East Coast, or is there more to come and might be hinted at in the linguistics?
Coincidental and possibly related: A string of decent sized earthquakes including the July 15th 7.6 shaker off the west coast of the South Island of New Zealand which is near the neighborhood where we're on the lookout for 'new lands rising" and then there's the Philippine government getting read to evacuate people from near their Mayon volcano is may be about to pop off. New land up in Alaska, too9...
No point in trying to rush to put a name on the phenomena of (or behind./causative of) 'rising waters' just yet, seems it will be simmering on the back burner on low for a while (5-months) while the global consciousness sorts out what's causing it, but one thing's for sure: and increase in high tides of 2-feet in some areas is a non-trivial observation, so we'll be looking at other parts of the world to see if there is anomalous activity elsewhere to boot. Two feet thick water over hundreds of miles at 8 pounds-per-gallons and who knows how far out to sea is a little more than a backpack's worth. This is BIG....so we watch for next readings and maybe some foreign reports to come?
This and more will be kicked around with George Noory on CoastToCoastAM with Cliff & me....should be fun as long as the coffee holds out...
Budget? Er..... Seems the White House has put off a regularly scheduled budget update. Don't tell me...let me guess: Cooking the books and had to send out for some more zeroes? --- Seriously: I see where the www.recover.gov web site ijs reporting the purchasing of $2½ million worth of sliced ham. Yep, major move to restore the economy, there, yessir. They could have labeled it 'pork' to make it easier.
And then there's a $351,000 dumbwaiter for the Department of Veterans Affairs in Mamaroneck NY. and....and....and.... --- Wasn't it just last week that the "EPA Inspector General assesses potential weaknesses of recipients receiving recovery funds"? --- Let me think about this for a few moments: We've got a collapsed housing mess, and cities like Buffalo are reporting six house fires in vacant houses in a single night - and what we really seem to be needing is a genuine (no banksters or lobbyists involved, thank you) economic stimulus which will put people back to work.
Herbert Hoover had a lot of things wrong during his presidency, just like his second coming in George W. Bush had many things wrong, but at least he had a pretty good slogan going with "A chicken in every pot and a car in every garage."
Seems the Obama administration could update that to something catchy to get displaced Americans their homes back, an equivalent spiff to those of us who lived within their means (like a stimulus check, eh?) and then set about putting fiber into every home in America and make the country energy independent with a massive rework of auto laws that keep the most fuel efficient designs off the road. Just saying it's not like there's not real work to do... besides roll up emergency flu shots...
HealthScared Nation's governors are reported upset with the administration's Rahm-down healthcare efforts. Seems like in so much of the legislation that comes out of Washington lately, the trick it to put more and more burdens for 'compliance' on states (and cities) but not give them a dime to actually get it done.
I don't whine without offering a simple solution. How about: Any federal legislation requiring implementation of any federal law must be accompanied with 100% of the amount of money required at the state or city level to implement said law and variances between states of the amount of money collected in federal taxes versus money received back may not vary by more than 1%. The spread now is over 10% or more, depending on who's got more suck points and who's cut the best deals with lobbyists.
You and me getting 'equal representation' ? Not on this planet, LOL. Try taxation without representation - how else do you explain the bailout of banksters who then turn around and gloat over whopping phat profits?
New War Needed Yep, still looks like we're on for an Israeli-American attack on Iran around late October...especially with a report just today that "Iran puts finishing touches on a desert A-test site east of Tehran."
Now sure what finishing touches one puts on an A-bomb test area, but putting that touchstone of reality aside.... --- If you've been wondering if it's time to buy some potassium iodide pills over at www.ki4u.com, you're welcome to ponder, but I'm thinking early November. Wink, wink, nudge, nudge.
Bank Failures Mounting Not to be a Monday grump, but since four more banks were closed Friday by the feds, and since the number of bank offices closed count since IndyMac last year is now over 3000 with the announcements last Friday after the close you should remember in your investment decisions that the head of the FDIC says up to 500 more banks (Lord knows how many offices that will mean) will likely close. If it stops there...
Behind the Times So, let me get this right: We have an international flu pandemic and just now we see headlines like "BA and Virgin to stop suspected swine flu victims from flying." Seems to me that if globalism wasn't such a big money-maker, airline travel between continents would have been turned off long ago in the flu mess. That way, some of the how many millions of potential deaths could be avoided.
Definitely a fit into the 'restrictions on travel meme' that's been building in modelspace for years now...which means it will be HUGE and it's showing up shortly big time. -- Ah, but what's a few million people dead when there's globalism to support. Besides, world's got too damn many people anyway, right/ Wasn't that in the Club of Rome report back in 1972? And that led to RIO (the Reshaping the International Order) [not to be confused with the book "Reshaping the International Order: a Warning to the West"] which became the lead-in to the New World Order which...oh, you know all this stuff, right?
In the end, government runs everything, no freemen are left - since government allows humans, rather than humans allow government is the tipping point there, private property rights are abolished for the 'greater good' Unless you're rich, of course, and then you end up a Master (or Mistress) of the Universe. Buy-in to that game is a billion or more and that you ain't gonna be at that party, isn't something you're supposed to think about. Which gets us to...
No Thinking, Please Department Meantime, headlines like "Manager: Paula Abdul 'Hurt,' 'Angry,' May not return to "Idol" seem a bit out of place. Now don't get me wrong, I really like Paula Abdul...great artist. But this kind of 'news' is symptomatic of the idolatry & distraction that keeps Americans from getting their priorities right and dealing with real problems. ---- Just like the bread and circuses of Pax Romana, we have an entertainment industry based on the government giving away frequency spectrum to cable and satellite operators - effectively underwriting their bread and circuses operations. And they in turn develop the circuses - the cult of personality.
Am I the only one who thinks the public doings covered by CSPAN ought to get to my home free without a monthly bill? Or, wonders how come the public money spent developing the communications satellite industry doesn't buy us free satellite dishes?
Obviously, the socialism running amuck in Washington hasn't figured out yet that in order to complete the coup, the government needs to seize control of at least some channels and provide it free. I'd even go so far as to suggest that the BBC and just north of us, the CBC model seems working. But even in these nominally 'free' countries, basic news and information is tariffed.
That, my friend is the great digital divide: Power belongs to those with bandwidth and/or checkbooks. If you're expecting change, you maybe heard wrong. Chains.
Paul Abdul is hot. But is that news? I mean America is insolvent and living by buying up our own debt to keep the game alive. I really oughta switch to decaf.
The Weak Ahead Not much in the way of numbers this week, unless mass layoffs are reported - will have to check on that. Biggie today is Leading Economic Indicators which I skeptically view an an anagram for LIE.
Existing home sales (anagram for 'she'?) come on Thursday. But here's the sand in the Vaseline on that one: It's reported sales. Deals desked not deals closed. Little bit of an unbridgeable gap there...
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: With Prayers for a Dow 8,763 Close As I explained for Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend (in addition to the in depth flu report) there's an important technical barrier for the Dow to close above this week: 8,763. (See this week's chart here). Once we get over the old recent highs, in that region, then the technical picture begins to look like a rally that could bring us half-way back from the dead; the height of folly being 14,066 on a weekly basis back in late 2007 and 'the dead' being the weakly low being 6,626.94 in March of this year.
Since you're a reasonable person (who doesn't reach for coffee in one hand and a calculator in the other first thing on Monday, but I'm the unreasonable sort, I'll do the math for you: the spread is roughly 7,439 points which halved gives us 3,719.55. Add that to the 6,626.9 low and yields a target of 10,346 (plus or minus a hamburger).
Using the 10,346 level as the 'bounce' high, we could then project market lows which could follow: 10,348 minus the 7,439 would portend a Dow almost down to 2,900 and that's if Wave 3 down equals Wave 1 (which in case you slept through it was the October 2007 high down to the March low of this year).
Now here's the part which gets really interesting, though. Market analysis used to be pretty simple for followers of working techniques like Elliott Wave theory and other charting or "watch the tape" approaches (Dynamic Gann Angles, for example).
There are a couple of reasons that come right to mind which would allow for vastly different outcomes, however, which come from both the next web bot run due out tomorrow as well as recent headlines.
On the former, you'll have to wait till the report is actually out...but you'll see how events due this fall based on language shift could bollix up the possible rally, since they don't do well with collapsing currencies, market and bank holidays and what have you which could appear in the midst of 'rally time'. The other is that until recently, there had been a system in place which allowed certain big outfits to have a good handle on which way the markets were running and since the reported theft of key trading software in the Goldman Sachs case, which was revealed about the time that a) program trading stats were 'disappeared' by the NYSE and also when 95-miliseconds of faster execution showed up for market participants, a believe in non-coincidence - like your truly - would be keeping a weather eye out for a major change in trading dynamics come the end of July with certain other trading curbs come off after they were extended about the time guess what was coming to light?
My best guess? Since the next financial 'crisis' is due toward the end of August, which would set up a PPI Oscillator zero-crossing in September, one way for the markets to play out would be a rally lasting till early spring of 2010. BUT linguistically that's not at all likely since systemic confidence will be in the blender by mid-September and bouncing down the road to financial perdition before November.
Fortunately, I'm not in paper assets now (except for some longer term silver calls on the commodity side) and even there, seems like the CFTC will be moving to regulations that may discourage individuals from playing in that game. But, if I were, the possibility of setting up index straddle (or strangle) positions might be something to be considered. A straddle is where you buy an out of the money call option along with an out of the money put option and pray that the market rallies like hell, in which case the call option turns golden, or that the market completely tanks and the put turns golden, You then toss out the other option as a cost of playing...
The difference in a strangle is that both the option and the put options are 'in the money' when you buy them. In either case, the hedge is betting on volatility to make money and which direction doesn't matter. But what does matter is that if the market is stable both the puts and the calls can languish, in which case you throw away not one but two option (pulltabs) and talk to your accountant about 'tax loss carryforwards ' and wrap your head around the $3,000/year limit...
Are we feeling better yet?
Gadgetry: Boating Tools I've been 'on the hard' - sailorese for haven't been on a sailboat since we sold our boat in 2002. But, at the time I walked the dock for the last time (till sailing disease strikes again) the state of the art in boat-running was my Nobeltec navigation system, on one of two computers which drove the autopilot and if all else failed, a decent sextant with a now discontinued Celesticomp IV. The more recent handheld sextant tool would be a StarPilot.
Being a lubber now, I haven't been keeping up on all the new gadgetry, but Sail-World.com has a good article on iPhone applications for boating that's worth a read. I didn't even know what an OtterBox was until this morning.
One thing about boating that hasn't seemed to change much: The only kind of boating that makes any sense at all is living aboard. Otherwise the old saying that a "Boat is a fiberglass lined hole in the water into which you pour money" is just as true now as it was when we sold our sailboat.
Subject comes up around the ranch often enough: "Do you think you could ever go back to living on a sailboat?" Invariably, the answer in the summertime when we're in triple digits in East Texas and the comfort equivalent temperature is 108º is "Hell yeah!" This is often followed by several wasted days trying to figure out the best boat to buy and figuring scheme this way and that to sell out ranch which is a turnkey working operation.
Then reality creeps in: Who's got $300K to buy a well equipped ranch? Banks seem to be sitting on all but loans for their best of the best customers. Besides, then there's the problem with winter on a boat. Despite the northwest having a reputation for modest winters (my North Dakota standards, anyway) living on a boat when it's 36 degrees and raining sideways is a bit of a challenge, nevertheless.
Next winter, when you're dream about a boat in the Caribbean, just look up stories on snarfy port officials, the odd act of piracy, storms to puke your guts out, and equipment costs that escalate as the square of the waterline length. Still, next string of hot weather through here and guess what I'll be eyeing on Craigslist and eBay? How about a nice traditional Hudson Force 50/ Formosa 51?
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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and more recently
) makes for serious reading on the flip side of the global
warming mania.
