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15, 2009 07:35 AM CDT
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Acceleration of the
This may be asking a bit much - since it's the middle of summer
and all - but do you remember hitting a patch of ice when out
and about doing winter driving? There was a sequence of
events that happened quite quickly, yet to the aware driver,
they came in quick sequence: Things were going along
normally, then the car was suddenly out of positive
control as it moved into an area where it could only be
influenced, and then you either smacked into a tree or
curb, or things got back 'under control' again and
you thought to yourself "Wow! Was that ever
That m ay be a good analogy to what's going on with the markets
and economy right now: Things are slippery & dicey.
Just as things looked to be under control
when the market
rallied a week ago Friday to an intraday high of
9,466.89 and then this week could only manage 9,448.97.
On Friday the FDIC announced another five bank failures.
The largest of these being Colonial Bank with 346 branches
(6th largest failure in US history) and then Community Bank of
Nevada with 12 branches. If you're a numbers freak, here's
the number of main and branch banks that have been
closed/reorganized since IndyMac of Pasadena, CA went down a
little more than a year ago: 3,433. Details on any
particular closing by clicking the links:
Failures since IndyMac (7/11/09)
Community Bank of Nevada
Community Bank of Arizona
Union Bank, National Association
Dwelling House Savings and Loan Association
Community First Bank
Community National Bank of Sarasota County
First State Bank
Peoples Community Bank
First State Bank of Altus
Security Bank of Jones County
Security Bank of Houston County
Security Bank of Bibb County
Security Bank of North Metro
Security Bank of North Fulton
Security Bank of Gwinnett County
Waterford Village Bank
Temecula Valley Bank
First Piedmont Bank
Bank of Wyoming
Millennium State Bank of Texas
First National Bank of Danville
Elizabeth State Bank
Rock River Bank
First State Bank of Winchester
John Warner Bank
Mirae Bank, Los Angeles, CA
Metro Pacific Bank, Irvine, CA
Horizon Bank, Pine City, MN
Neighborhood Community Bank, Newnan, GA
Community Bank of West Georgia, Villa Rica, GA
First National Bank of Anthony, Anthony, KS
Cooperative Bank, Wilmington, NC
Southern Community Bank, Fayetteville, GA
Bank of Lincolnwood, Lincolnwood, IL
Citizens National Bank, Macomb, IL
Strategic Capital Bank, Champaign, IL
BankUnited, FSB, Coral Gables, FL
Westsound Bank, Bremerton, WA
America West Bank, Layton, UT
Citizens Community Bank, Ridgewood, NJ
Silverton Bank, N.A., Atlanta, GA
First Bank of Idaho, Ketchum, ID
First Bank of Beverly Hills, Calabasas, CA
Heritage Bank, Farmington Hills, MI
American Southern Bank, Kennesaw, GA
Great Basin Bank of Nevada, Elko, NV
American Sterling Bank, Sugar Creek, MO
New Frontier Bank, Greeley, CO
Cape Fear Bank, Wilmington, NC
Omni National Bank, Atlanta, GA
TeamBank, National Association, Paola, KS
Colorado National Bank, Colorado Springs, CO
FirstCity Bank, Stockbridge, GA
Freedom Bank of Georgia, Commerce, GA
Security Savings Bank, Henderson, NV
Heritage Community Bank, Glenwood, IL
Silver Falls Bank, Silverton, OR
Pinnacle Bank of Oregon, Beaverton, OR
Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company, Pittsfield, IL
Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, Cape Coral, FL
Sherman County Bank, Loup City, NE
County Bank, Merced, CA
Alliance Bank, Culver City, CA
FirstBank Financial Services, McDonough, GA
Ocala National Bank, Ocala, FL
Suburban Federal Savings Bank, Crofton, MD
MagnetBank, Salt Lake City, UT
1st Centennial Bank, Redlands, CA
Bank of Clark County, Vancouver, WA
National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, IL
Sanderson State Bank, Sanderson, TX
Haven Trust Bank, Duluth, GA
First Georgia Community Bank, Jackson, GA
PFF Bank and Trust, Pomona, CA
Downey Savings and Loan, Newport Beach, CA
The Community Bank, Loganville, GA
Security Pacific Bank, Los Angeles, CA
Franklin Bank, SSB, Houston, TX
Freedom Bank, Bradenton, FL
Alpha Bank & Trust, Alpharetta, GA
Meridian Bank, Eldred, IL
Main Street Bank, Northville, MI
Washington Mutual Bank, Henderson, NV and Washington
Mutual Bank FSB, Park City, UT
Ameribank, Northfork, WV
Silver State Bank, Henderson, NV
Integrity Bank, Alpharetta, GA
The Columbian Bank and Trust, Topeka, KS
First Priority Bank, Bradenton, FL
First Heritage Bank, NA, Newport Beach, CA
First National Bank of Nevada, Reno, NV
IndyMac Bank, Pasadena, CA
As we discuss (seems like almost every Saturday morning here
lately), the Second Depression is something of a 'sleeper'
compared with the first one for a number of reasons:
the first Depression, losses in banks were immediate and
personal - folks were plain old wiped out. In the
SD (second depression if the coffee hasn't worked yet) the
real impacts are not being felt yet because they are
public and being spread out over time.
a dollar basis, however, the SD is actually larger on a per
capita constant dollar basis even using just the $200
billion bailout money. Yes, critics could argue
that some of the TARP money is being paid back, so that's
not a fair comparison. Maybe.
There's been no definitive work that I've seen surveying
academic documents that meaningfully compare bank failure
numbers in the 1930's with today's closure storm: Back
then, failures didn't involve megabanks (WAMU had 2,239
locations but also 4,932ATM's not to mention all
the online banking users.
Stock Market seems to be weathering things amazingly well.
Down only about
49-points for the week overall as measured by the Dow, while
the broader S&P 500 was down only 6½
points for the week.
Not that markets are meaningful:
High frequency trading (HF trading) is to the point where the
impact of the individual investor's decision-making is really
secondary to the automaton/gun slinging program trading which is
so large that the NYSE decided to discontinue program trading
reports a while back. In the same manner, the Fed quit M-3
reports, too, although you can find a wonderful proxy for that
at Trader Bart's site
threat of deflation seems in our immediate future as the
annualized growth rate of M-3 seems to be heading for zero
pretty damn quickly.
For now, my "don't play in the
freeway" strategy of some treasuries, some cash, some precious
metals, and storing a fair amount in physical goods which have
future value, makes plenty of sense.
I can almost envision the US
Treasury officials meeting with the Chinese and holding up
Trader Bart's chart while saying "See? We really are
reining in money supply growth and we're only trying to use our
Fed to buy enough Treasuries to ensure your investment in dollar
denominated instruments maintains fair value..."
As long as the Chinese have some
hope of being made whole (on a purchasing power/trading power
basis) the financial equivalent of global thermonuclear war can
be averted - maybe.
"So why would you start off a
report like today's with a winter driving image?" you're
Oh...just to underscore that the
whole crapperoo is skating on thin ice, I guess....
Elaine & I just sit back with the
popcorn and watch the dramatics unfold. Like a poorly done
'mystery novel' though, we think we see where the plot is going.
Key thing to watch is how the dollar fares overseas and when
those dollars start coming back to America, then you'll want
to blow out of Treasuries into physical goods.
What finance has in common with
comedy? Timing is everything.
My friend Cliff recently tried to
buy a gold coin. After being reassured right and left by a
dealer than unlike others, he'd be able to make good on delivery
"within 3-4 days, 5 at the most" he still found his wait
something closer to 4-weeks. We are not alone.
Next week's biggest agenda item?
Besides a couple of client calls, I mean? Buying
investment grade diesel.
It's been clear to me for some time
that what the Fed is trying to do is print money and press it
into the economy fast enough to offset incipient inflation on
the one hand, but not so fast as to 'go Weimar (hyperinflation)
on the other.
Say what you will about the
Treasury, Fed, and complicit congress, they aren't doing
a bad job so far. Looking at the predictive
linguistic data, seems like we make it through the winter OK -
not that it won't scare hell out of people and further deflate
most people's life savings, though. The linguistics always
express emotional extremes, but seems like a muddle-through to
mid 2010 is possible.
I'm not the only one with a gloomy
outlook, though. Mike Whitney's piece "The
Economy is in Deep, Deep Trouble" is also worth reading.
His question is whether Ben Bernanke has the gumption to raise
rates - because if he doesn't, disintermediation (money flees
paper for higher returns in other things like food and such)
speeds up and inflation digs in at some point... Damn difficult
timing call, for sure and all driven by whether the bottom is
Ultra Rich on Thin Ice
Remember our cove4rage of those
rich Americans who have in many cases been hiding significant
wealth outside the USA in tax havens? We don't make up
allegations of 'tax cheats' out of thin air, so please notice
that the "U.S.
(government) building criminal cases on clients of UBS".
I assume you remember that UBS means United Bank of Switzerland,
And about those folks in Uncle's
cross-hairs? Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks.
In the right-wing's ruling days, that was one of the percs of
being rich - a kind of ultra-rich welfare. And woe be to
any U.S. Attorney who roved into that area of law enforcement,
huh? Same folks who couldn't build a fence on the Mexico
border...how soon we forget and throw rocks at the new guys.
Speaking of Ice
You see where a
50-year old man was busted this week in a $65-million dollar
daylight jewelry height a week or so back?
As the second depression unfolds, I
wouldn't be surprised to see a modern-day version of
legendary Depression era bank robber Willie Sutton appear.
Sutton worked then media well, claiming not to use loaded guns
in his bank robberies and only stealing from the rich. His
best, though, was when asked "Why do you rob banks?" he answered
"because that's where the money is..."
When we see someone like that -
putting on something of a Robin Hood spin - that will give us
maybe a 1/3'rd of the way - maybe half way - into the Depression
a report that missing ship out of Russia has been found in the
Bay of Biscay of France.
Since the ship went missing on July
28th. and it's now the 15th of August, you tell me: If you
had two weeks to do it, could you get some contraband cargo
transferred to something else in this period of time? Care
to bet that nothing out of the ordinary will be found and we'll
get reports it was just mechanical troubles, or something like
that to wash it from the public mind?
Background reading: ABC's
report that "Fear
for Obama's Safety Grows as Hate Groups Thrive on Racial
The Obama administration may be
calling out the special interests who are opposing healthcare
reform as "Obama
says Insurers are trying to block change." Why?
Just because they make almost as much money as the healthcare
providers, you mean?
Overseas coverage of America's
healthcare meantime, verges on scandalous as the UK's
Independent paints an ugly portrait of conditions in their piece
brutal truth about America's healthcare."
At least seven dead and nearly 100 wounded from an explosion
near NATO HQ in Afghanistan.
Watching this story out of El Paso:
accused of being hit man for cartel". Teach people to
be effective killing machines and what?.....
Finally, A Named Storm
Tropical Storm Ana is in the Atlantic - first named storm of the
year on the Atlantic side. I was beginning to wonder
if this year would go into the record books.
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Another ORB story...
This one was interesting...
HI, yeah, wow seeing the picture of the orb and reading
about them just sent a huge chill up my spine. It was many
years ago when a friend of mine and me ran into orbs, at the
time we both swore never to talk about it to anyone. Then I
saw the pictures you had up and it brought that memory
straight back to me. Crazy stuff, indeed seems to be
happening. I also was wondering if you, or anyone else has
the following happen to them, or if I'm just plain crazy
(well I know I am a bit, but..) So this started about 4
years ago for me, I just finished a meditation session on
the beach and when I looked into the sky I could see
millions of small white objects, best way to explain is they
sort of look like stars, but in the day time. The thing is
they move all around really fast. Some of them just do
circles, others are darting all over the place, sometimes
two of them meet up and spin around a bit then dart off. I
know it's weird, but before I never used to see this unless
focused, then I started seeing the same thing when I flew,
and now I just have to look up and focus and they all come
into view. Have you ever heard of this before?
different people have varying sensitivities to the phenomena, it
seems. Try eating vegetarian for a week or two, and then
try a heavy beef diet for a while - see if that changes it
around and let us know?
New Radiation Drug?
have to get a call over to the folks at
www.ki4u.com to find out how
long before this one shows up for civilians, but a new "Drug
promises fix for radiation poisoning." A little late
for Chernobyl and Hiroshima victims, but better late than never.
Wonder what the side effects might be?
The report that the "US
sugar supplies 'running out' is worth watching because if
the US starts to import more sugar, it's a sign that the home
grown variety is not doing well. In an era when food self
sufficiency is tantamount to national security, I'm amazed that
the Obama administration hasn't made some kind of statement on
this - but with so many other irons in the fire, maybe its
But, watch the price of anything
sweet you eat - and cutting down sugar intake is not a bad
Dying to See the Future?
Interesting concept here that
people who have experienced a 'near death experience' may have
gotten some glimpses of the future.
Question is: How is that
getting to them? As part of 'dying' does the human brain
whip up hallucinogenic (like DMT) and 'trip out on the way out'?
Or, do we resolve back to being non-physical members of some
universal subconscious mind?
I'm not exactly 'dying to know' the
See you Monday...
Send comments to
The UrbanSurvival Mall:
We are now less than two weeks from the August 22
'hot date' in the predictive linguistics work from Cliff at
it's as good a time as any to have a little chalk-talk about how
this fall could work out. The earthquakes in Baja, occurring
with almost uncanny precision as expected, and the following 6.1 in
Japan fulfilled all of our 'duality' expectations, so we're left
with a very hard set of linguistics to deal with for the fall.
So dire are the possibilities that I told my son, who starts his EMT
re-certification program in September in the Pacific Northwest, that
he may not be able to complete it. Moreover, there's one
critical path into our future that could result in him hiking to
Texas (from Washington state) as a wandering medical practitioner in
2010. Action point:, He should pay particular attention to the
EMT-W content on the side. If you're not familiar with
EMT-W (sometimes WEMT) curriculum, it's designed for first
responders in a wilderness setting where you're basically on your
own. It's one thing to save a life with 4-minutes response
times, one minutes from an AED, and withy 150-drugs and a 12-lead
ECG 7-minutes out. It's entirely another when there are no
communications and you've got only a trail first-aid pack, OTC
medications, and a good pocket knife. From an emergency
medicine standpoint, we may all be at either extreme of that
spectrum within a year; such is the breadth of critical path
More For Subscribers
My commodity broker JB Slear and I
have written a simple book to get you started on high density
hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little
creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try
out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of
produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony
(if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's
just $10 bucks here...
No, when youi tell your browser to 'empty your cookies' of web
sites you've visited, it probably won't get them all. Why?
Because there is a whole class of 'browser-independent' cookies
that will gobble up space on your hard drive, but more important
is they will sneak out information about you without you
being aware of it. Ever week I get emails like
"Thanks again for the Maxa Tools recommendation, I never
knew how much additional garbage gets attached every time I
Test drive it free by downloading it. To upgrade to full
functionality will be $35 bucks. Is your privacy worth it?
Once you try it out, click the
upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35
unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive
'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer
may run faster. I've taken
2,000 cookies off my machine with version 4 now.
It's just amazing.
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM
does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is
compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows
world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers
to be a thorn in the side of the Old World Order? Simply
and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing
more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot
of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on
its own, of course....
"Live on $10,000" Updated
I've told you in the past
to order my ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less..."
with the rationale that "We're all going to live it shortly, anyway."
Don't know as you have looked lately, but the unemployment rate
is up more than 3% since I wrote the first edition of that book
and underpasses have never been more homely. Worth
www.liveontenthousand.com or, click
this little whizzie...
It's an automatic
download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole
thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to
not only live on the cheap, but also how
to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle
Click here for the
index and details.
week's report is here. For
back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to
Friday August 14, 2009
Flat to a Bit of Deflation?
The report that consumer prices were down at an annual rate of
near 2.4% is really quite the remarkable assertion if you've
been anywhere near a store lately. We begin with the facts
as alleged in today's inflation report;
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
decreased 0.2 percent in July before seasonal adjustment,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of
Labor reported today. Over the last 12 months the index has
fallen 2.1 percent, as a 28.1 percent decline in the energy
index since its July 2008 peak has more than offset
increases of 0.9 percent in the food index and 1.5 percent
in the index for all items less food and energy.
On a seasonally adjusted basis,
the CPI-U was unchanged in July following a 0.7 percent
increase in June. Small declines in the food and energy
indexes offset a small increase in the index for all items
less food and energy. The food index declined 0.3 percent in
July with all six major grocery store food groups posting
declines. The energy index, which rose 7.4 percent in June,
fell 0.4 percent in July. Decreases in the indexes for
gasoline, fuel oil, and electricity more than offset an
increase in the index for natural gas.
The index for all items less
food and energy rose 0.1 percent in July following a 0.2
percent increase in June. The indexes for new vehicles,
tobacco, medical care and apparel all continued to increase
in July, and the index for airline fares turned up after a
long series of declines. In contrast to these increases, the
shelter index decreased in July as the index for lodging
away from home fell and the indexes for rent and owners'
equivalent rent were unchanged."
"The food and beverages index,
which rose 0.1 percent in June, fell 0.2 percent in July.
The decrease was caused by the food at home index, which
declined for the seventh time in the last eight months,
falling 0.5 percent. All six major grocery store food group
indexes fell, with the largest decreases being a 1.3 percent
decline in the index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs and a
0.6 percent decline in the dairy and related products index,
which has now fallen for eight months in a row. The cereals
and bakery products index posted the smallest decrease of
the six groups, falling 0.1 percent. The indexes for fruits
and vegetables, for nonalcoholic beverages, and for other
food at home all declined 0.3 percent in July. The food at
home index has declined 2.6 percent from its peak in
November 2008. In contrast to the decline in the food at
home index, the food away from home index rose 0.1 percent
in July and the index for alcoholic beverages increased 0.3
Basically, it's no change as
seasonal corrections are cranked in, meaning any change is
within the noise level of the data.
Before you get too excited, a couple
of things to consider: First is that only transportation
(-14.1%), Housing (-0.7%), and energy (-28.1%) were down
compared with year along levels. Everything else cost
Even in these, however, the recent
three month picture is different. Transportation is going
up 22.7% annualized in the most recent three months (Thanks, C4C
program!), and energy's 3-month annualized rate of increase is
32.5%. Housing was still going down, 1% annualized, which
I can only attribute to banksters being slow to trade property
back and forth and not being willing to admit their 'bad books'
yet. More will come out this fall, more'n likely, so no
point being in a particular hurry about it.
Truth from the Port
Port of Long Beach was out with it's July cargo stats this week
along with other West Coast ports. July of this year saw
loaded inbound containers down 23% from year ago levels.
And loaded outbound was down 27.2%. You know what keeps
the overall number from being less than 23%? The number of
empties which was down only 16.2%.
In order not to be deceived, I backed out the 'empties' and what
you have a Long Beach cargo decline of 24.45% YoY to explain
away. Green shoots, anyone?
Up the coast, the Port of Seattle's July showed
international cargo down only 8.4%, which doesn't sound too
bad, until you do a little research and find
2008 international cargoes were already down 15.5% from 2007.
Don't ask how much was imported cars which went into the clunker
You can take whatever government statistic you want, but if you
want a real handle on how globalism is going, drop by the
long shoring watering hole and ask the people who know what's
really going on.
Port of Los Angeles was down 16.94%, in the month of July,
We oughta pass the hat and get Portland a new computer...so they
can be quicker on the draw...
Nassim Taleb, who wrote The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
is now saying something to the effect that 'Incompetent'
Leader post threat to Recovery." You mean, we
Yup...that ship from Russia is still missing and
are starting to circulate on the net that something more than
just lumber may have been aboard... Missing nukes?
August 22 date mention? All getting far to weird...even
with just strong coffee. Reports in even the Texas papers
- like "Russia
dispatches navel vessels to hunt for vanished freighter" -
have me wondering "What was on board?" Probably
been transferred already, I reckon.
Millions of salmon that are failing to return to Canada to spawn.
It's hysteria versus planning now, when it comes to the
novel/swine flu which has so conveniently shown up just as the
country is approaching the economic break-up rump,,, I mean
bump... in the road.
And boy, is there hysteria building. Take for example the
headline that the
drill at high school to prepare for possible H1N1 riot..."
Gimme a break!
I've pointed out how many times now that when the denominator
(sneezes and high temps that are flu) is
not gathered with any rigor, yet the numerator is,
(that'd be counting the dead people in the morgue) you're going to have all kinds of
errors in your conclusions. But, hey! What's a
missing decimal place (or more) in the denominator when there
are governments willing to write checks and extend government
Several readers have sent me copies of the "International Swine
Flue Conference" to be held August 19-21 in Washington. In
the conference brochure has this section:
"Concurrent Breakout Session #1
Mass Fatality Management Planning
Develop and maintain plans, procedures, programs, and
Develop and implement training and exercise programs
Direct fatality management tactical operations
Activate fatality management operations
Conduct morgue operations
Manage ante-mortem data
Conduct final disposition"
Several people have noted in emails that there doesn't seem to
be much emphasis on symptom-spotting, triage (sorting people
out) and other early stage prophylaxis.
take? I don't read anything nefarious into this. It's a
free market response to a hole in training for HR & management
types at the F-1000 level who right now are hip-deep in planning
contingencies for possible high impact flu this fall &
winter. Conspiracy of some kind? Probably not.
Other breakout sessions (like #10) deal with things like
"Effectively work with 30-40% less employees" and so forth.
If I were responsible for business continuity, I'd probably send
I'd have a talk with Marketing and Accounting. If I we
were to really have a serious flu outbreak (seems baked in
the cake, maybe with some help, eh?) then what is the
impact of sales and profits over the course of winter and how
are we going to explain what may be a 50% drop in sales in Q4 or
is being hard hit at the moment: "Mumbai
closes all schools over swine flu fears." I won't
believe it's a disaster, though, until I call tech support and
don't get someone in India.
Republik of Massachusetts have deputized comrade dentists to
give flu shots.
So many people are weighing in on healthcare reform that
government is having a hard time keeping up with the flood of
emails. Gee, maybe those computers under the Black
Fort (Meade) could be retasked to help out, maybe?
:Look at the headline (while you can still see it, LOL): "Invisible
doorways or portals a step closer to reality, claim scientists".
Catchy headline and all, but is this really something new, or
just figuring out that any cloaking/light-bending technology
could be used to hide a door as much as it could be used
to cloak a person? I leave it to your finely tuned powers
of study. (Yeah, right....it's Friday, isn't it?)
OK, here you go: Print off the story about how
Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman made nearly $700-million
last year and point out how he lives in 24-hours days, so
"How about showing me some love?"
Don't be writing whining when you get bounced out of the boss's
office on your ass...Schwarzman probably does more at work than
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With the ORB Debate
Yesterday's article on people seeing ORBs about brought an
interesting range of responses. On the one hand, there
were some replies that went to the purely "easily explained"
option. Like this one from a professional photographer:
I've seen tons of photos of
orbs. Even taken tons of photos of them myself.
In every case, they show up when
dust particles are in very close proximity to the camera
lens and flash.
The "orb" in this case is simply
a speck, or several specks in succession close to one
another, of dust passing by the lens and triggering the
It drives me crazy every time
folks assign paranormal explanations to such photos. If
you've ever taken pics at Burning Man at night, the orbs
show up all over the place. Nothing woo-woo about it.
Hope that clears it up."
to know stuff. But, that doesn't explain what the ORBS are
that are seen in places like the Oregon coast where a reader has
been watching a lot of ORB activity lately - and no photography
Over the last couple weeks we
have been seeing what we started calling “Orbs” for lack of
a better term, this was before I had heard you mention it
and we have not done any research on the matter.
In fact until we saw the first
one during a rare, clear night on the coast , about 2 weeks
ago, I have never witnessed anything I could classify as a
UFO , and that after many years as an outdoorsman and many
hours logged watching the night sky , we are all well versed
in aircraft and satellites and this is something completely
We are located in a rural area
on the Southern Oregon Coast so we do not get a lot of clear
nights , but every night we can See the stars, and get a
clear sky, we are seeing anywhere from 15-20 sightings a
The “Orbs” are manifesting in
all sorts of different behaviors, we see them at high
altitude as well as one very bright one That came cruising
over the house at very low altitude, possibly 5-10,000' .
So we have set up a sort “Orb
Society" if you will , my wife and I and a couple friends ,
on clear nights we get out The lawn chairs and lay flat on
our back for comfortable "Orb Viewing".
Some of the behavior we are
you will be watching the night
sky and all of a sudden you will see a blink of a light ,
and then another , then you will see the "orb" , although
not that brightly , then the "orb" will start moving and it
will get brighter, sometimes very bright, and travel some
distance , at varying speed sometimes fast , sometimes
we have witnessed two appear at
the same time and both immediately take off, of completely
different trajectories , one due north , the other due east
we started using binoculars to
get closer and we have witnessed several that got really
bright , I can only describe them as completely bright white
spheres, they are beautiful
after about the 3rd time we
viewed them , I started calling them "Orbs" and our distinct
impression was that , we are not viewing anything like a
physical craft at all , we are starting to think what we are
seeing, are other life forms , because their movements and
action seem so organic
and they almost always fade out
before our eyes, they just blink out !
Needles to say we anxiously
await clear nights now , this is becoming the most profound
thing that has ever happened to me, so when I read your blog
this morning , it gave me a rush to see you actually use the
Our wives have already gotten
bored with the “orbs” and are off doing their nails now ;-)
, but the men folk are absolutely mesmerized With the
implications of this new life form we are witnessing .
We were wondering was this just
a localized phenomenon ? were others seeing these as well
and in increased numbers ?
and it looks you answered our
question this morning , before we even asked it , officially
I have read one of Paul
Devereux's books on this. He is not an idiot, unlike those
who invest at p/e ratios of 700. Google earthlights for lots
of links, or go to:-
as a good place to start."
far, the best/most fully informed email was this one:
am one of the creators of the award winning documentary,
"ORBS: The Veil Is Lifting". And, as a long-time reader of
your site, I was delighted to see Orbs mentioned yesterday.
Orbs are visual evidence of the shift that is taking place
and we would like to encourage people to pick up their
cameras and have a first-hand experience of photographing
Orbs for themselves. To this end, I am sending you some Orb
photos and short article I have written with "ORB HUNT"
There is a shift happening. The
ancients told us this time would come . . . the time is
here. Things are different in our bodies, our emotions, the
very core of our beings seem to be opening to new
possibilities. And so we find ourselves in new territory,
needing tools to help us navigate and explore our new
paradigm of existence. There are many well-known tools for
exploring the nature of existence, such as: meditation,
yoga, prayer and fasting. Yet I never imagined that my
digital camera would become just such a tool. It has done
this by allowing me to capture, in a photograph, a glimpse
of a greater reality that is peeking through the veil of our
three-dimensional limited way of seeing. What does that
mean? It means that cameras (especially digital) are now
picking up phenomena that exist in different parts of the
light spectrum than are normally seen with the naked eye.
These phenomena are manifesting in different forms, but one
of the most commonly seen in photographs are round glowing
spheres of light called "Orbs".
I first discovered Orbs about
eight years ago and became instantly fascinated and
enchanted by them. Now, after taking over 20,000 images with
Orbs in them, it has become clear to me that there is some
form of higher consciousness involved in the phenomenon and
that energy of higher vibration is what attracts them. Orbs
have been photographed around sacred sites for many years
and are now showing up everywhere. I have seen them swarm in
photos when live music is played, children are laughing, or
friends are joined together. I have seen them appear en
masse while someone meditates or sends them love. I have
photographed them in nature as well as inside convention
halls. The commonality of their appearances is the presence
of strong emotion, be it: joy, love, bliss, even grief. Many
of us have felt that there is more to existence than what we
could readily perceive with our eyes. Yet we live in a
"seeing is believing" world that has, for the most part,
denied the reality of other worlds and dimensions that are
unseen and not easily explained. Now, with the Orb
phenomenon, we are actually being able to "see" the unseen,
so will people believe? We created our documentary,
"ORBS: The Veil
Is Lifting", to help educate people about the
dimensional shift that is taking place and the Orbs that are
showing us the way. The film contains interviews with nine
people who have approached the Orb phenomenon from very
different angles: from a Stanford professor who consults for
NASA to a theologian, from a woman who sees them underwater
to artists and healers who use them in their work. Everyone
has come to the same conclusion . . . Orbs are conscious
beings from another dimension that we can now see.
TIPS FOR ORB HUNTING My advice
for anyone wanting to experience Orbs for themselves is:
find a location that feels sacred or joyous to you, a church
or a healing spot, an outdoor party or celebration, a
special place in nature . . . anywhere that positive energy
or vibrations are felt. Get together with a group of people
and plan to have fun. Singing or playing instruments works
well, as music brings in higher frequencies. Be sure to use
your flash as it seems the Orbs are usually seen with its
aid . I suggest starting your Orb questing by photographing
at dusk or when it's already dark. Orbs have been
photographed in daylight, with or without a flash, but it's
rare. Frame the shots so that subjects are toward the bottom
of the frame; i.e. more sky than ground. Be prepared to
shoot and shoot (which is easy with a digital camera) and to
revisit a location several times to cultivate the area.
I know - the use of the flash is problematic. While that
might seem to press the whole discussion over into the
photographer's contention that ORBs are nothing more than
close-in dust (and in some cases, this is no doubt true) when
I've gotten sit-down-across-the-table reports from a person who
has seen ORBs 'dancing in the trees' not more than 5-miles from
the ranch, or like the report from the Oregon group, I have to
wonder: Is there one case in any of this that can't be
dismissed out of hand? If there's only one or
two out there that are truly anomalous, seems a rigorous
study with at least as much money as we're spending to Bomb the
Moon might be useful, yah think?
Are Fat Kids Dumber?
one conclusion someone totally amped out on coffee could come up
with after reading that "Preschool
thinking skills linked to weight..."
them to Elgin, Illinois:
"Elgin declared 'fattest city in Illinois".
Around the Ranch:
Elaine got her first real hands-on taste of flying on Thursday.
But, she was so busy with all the knowledge being thrown at her
on the first day of flying that we didn't get an aerial picture
of the ranch. On the other hand, not getting too worked up
over flying - yet. I promised myself that before I even
consider buying a plane, things would need to fall into a
particular kind of order. First, both of us need to get
flight medicals. My understanding of the Rules these days
is that if you flunk a third class medical not only do you lose
your private ticket, but you're also not to fly in the
lesser-regulated light sport aircraft (LSA) segment. No, I
don't expect this to be an issue.
The next benchmark that would have to be met would be Elaine
getting her sign-off to solo. If she flies 2-3 times a
week, and I would expect her to do 20-30-hours before she's
ready for solo (lots of stuff to learn first these days - how
transponders work, how to use an ADF or a VOR if you find
yourself disoriented or lost, etc.) - which would put us 10-15
By then, the economy could really be in the crapperoo - and
whether civilian airplanes will be fly8ing would be a sort of
open question. On the other hand, if the events of the
fall are just a prequel to bigger problems next year (likely)
then I could get serious about looking for a plane and getting
current (biennial flight review) once again.
hen there's the matter of which aircraft. Most likely?
Cessna 172...simply because it would be the easiest to
transition into for Elaine coming off a C-150/152. Trying
to get over my 'type A' personality disorder, a 172 is a nice
mix of capacity, range, low operating costs, and so forth.
Fancy items that make for a hot airplane (constant speed
(adjustable pitch) props and retractable gear all sound like
good times to me, but hart to transition to for someone with low
I won't bore you with too much detail on this, but in terms of a
personal competency, especially when you've seen pictures of the
freeways choked with people fleeing ahead of hurricanes Katrina
and Rita, plus the mental acuity required to fly, I suppose in
the end it's no worse an idea than an SUV that gets 15-MPG.
It may have its place.
Thursday August 13, 2009
Running (of the) Shorts
Boy, do I love it when a prediction starts to come true.
Remember, I've been talking about the possibility of a melt-up
going into options expiration next week as the nears are in
about perfect field position to do a record-book 'running of the
shorts'? (Maybe you don't get Peoplenomics, but it was
there in a recent ChartPack...) The Fed meeting yesterday was -
also as predicted - a non-event. Except for this one
little part of the FOMC statement:
previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending
and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in
private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a
total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed
securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end
of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the
process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. "
They might have just as well put a sign out front that said
"This Casino is rigged! Come on it - everyone's
a winner! Step right up!
And so, the price of gold is up over $950 again this morning,
silver is back knocking on the door of $15 an ounce,
and the futures are up like crazy. Why, at this rate,
I may have to send in some dough to my brokerage outfit so I can
go short as soon as the upside stampede gets ready to set new
high water marks.
Another thing to keep an eye on is how the dollar is doing.
Especially against a background of headlines like "Dollar
dips in Asia after upbeat Fed comments."
If you talk to a Bull in this kind of a market (and you can get
past the frothing around the the mouth) you'll heard
justifications like "Stocks are being priced like an apartment
house would be priced in a period of inflation: The price
is going up because the income and earnings potential of
stocks is high and isn't the USA the biggest market in the
Well, yes, the potential is high, but have youi looked at
the forward Price/Earnings ratio of the Dow or the S&P lately?
One analysis (up at
Gluskin/Sheff) figures it's in the area of 700. Who's
ever heard of a market PE of 700 without a disaster on the back
Still, trying to judge the extraordinary delusions of crowds has
been a longtime favorite of market wonks since the South Sea
Market bounces are hard beasts to figure, although they do seem
to have some logical turning points. For example, a 38.2%
retracement or a 50% retracement in the 'bounce' is often
observed, although in extremes, the bounce can be 80% or more.
Let's pencil this out, shall we?
On a weekly closing high, the Dow finished October 1, 2007 at
March 2 of this year, it closed the week at 6,627.
14,066 minus 6,627 is 7,439 points.
The way we get to the 'bounce high' targets is to multiply the
7,439 difference between the high and the low, then
add it to the low. Here, I've run out from targets for
Nothing would make me happier than to see a closing Dow this
week of 9,468 or even 10,348 in a couple of weeks (week ending
Unfortunately, from there, what would then follow a series of
declines since the second leg down has favored tendencies.
Since wave 3's must be equal to wave 1 down, here are some
percentages based on the possibilities above.
Ultimate Dow Lows
So you can see what Ben Bernanke and any other smart,
right-thinking economist would be worried about, right?
There are some possibilities in the cards which, ifs the market
doesn't do one hell of a rally, there is what would have to be
eyed as a statistical possibility that the markets could melt to
the point of unrecoverable.
What could the triggers be? One of the things that caused
me to wake up in a sweat last night was "What would happen if
people all of a sudden lost faith in electronic currencies?
" In such a scenario, there wouldn't be enough paper
money to go around. And that's just for openers.
We might not need to go that far in our thinking, however, since
there are plenty of headlines that lay ou8t 'game-ender'
possibilities. Pandemic flu that kills large numbers of
people, a devastating sequence of terrorist events on American
soil - that kind of thing.
In fact, if one is solely preoccupied with the
preservation of the nation, an argument that a false flag
operation which would give the government power to shut
financial markets down and re-formulate the economic system,
might be one of the few available avenues available.
None of the outcomes is pretty. Which means the ONLY way
to get out of this mess for a while would be for the market to
go on to new all-time highs, which means a weekly close over
14,100 - and much higher than even that, if you want some
measure of sureity, since you'd want it to be a new high in
inflation-adjusted terms as well.
Before I get launched into a Peoplenomics-length discourse, I
will just leave it at that: More than 80% of the markets
is 'flash-trading' anyway - and some figure it's over 90%.
Since humans are out of the loop completely in high-frequency
trading systems, we are in the financial equivalent of the Cold
War where only the presence of humans was seen as the sure-fire
way to avoid accidental war.
But now we have all the items in place for an 'automated
meltdown' and how low it will go may depend on blind luck.
If you read up on algorithmic trading, remember that the NYSE
has stopped posting program trading volumes in steps.
The first step toward 'blinding the public' came a couple of
years ago when the NYSE changed the rules to supposedly stop
'double-counting' of trades (buy side and sell side), but just a
couple of weeks back even that was turned off.
Reason? How are you going to keep people wandering
haplessly into the Big Casino if you just put your life savings
into something and trust machines to duke it out and hand you
something back? Never gonna happen.
So here we are today: Rally on (for a while), staring into
the dark abyss, and wondering "Gee, how come no one has audited
the Fed since they stopped reporting M3...and you really mean my
401(k) money is just grist for some flash-trading programs?"
It's all too much like the Clint Eastwood movie: "Are you
feeling lucky, punk?"
All kinds of numbers out this morning. Import/Export
prices, Retail sales, initial unemployment claims, and inventory
levels of business.
Do I care? Nope. The biggy is tomorrow's CPI data.
Meantime, the market could rally rabidly this morning because of
the headlines that the "Euro-Area
Economy Contracted 0.1% in Second Quarter"
Slice of roast Bear, anyone?
Home foreclosures up 7% in July from June.
Smart, very smart: "RBS
uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets."
All kinds of email today - much of it accompanied with
subject lines like "Holy sh*t...you guys were right!!!"
Referencing the predictive linguistics bit about the ship going
missing and such.
Headlines like "Ship
disappears in European waters " are all over the net today.
My theory? Gone to a hidden base of some international
cartel of bad guys and it's time to call James Bond...
not. Still, have to wonder if the Felix Leiter types aren't on
the blower to national technical means folks asking for a few
keyholes to be retasked, if you follow...
Orbs Are Back
Oh-oh - this is serious woo-woo. Have a reader
near Avery, Texas who has a 'critter cam' - you know, the kind
that people put out when looking for deer that are coming by
their feeders and such before hunting season? I'll let the
The following three pictures
came from a critter cam facing west set up at my uncle’s
watermelon patch in Avery TX. Something was getting his
watermelons and he wanted to know if it was a coyote or
raccoon. The cam took over 20 pictures starting around 2:30
am and lasted around 30 minutes give or take. All pictures
do not have this clear of an image of the balls of light,
however several have faded images of several balls.
If you look at the first image
the ball of light is very clear in the upper left hand
corner however there are several balls not so clear in the
I wanted you to look at them and
tell me if you or your readers have ever experienced
anything like this.
sure, that would be an 'orb'. These are the little
critters that you can find
video of on the web doing things like cutting crop circles
and what have you. (slow loading link, but search crop
circles and orb and you'll find other links).
while back, one of our friends was going home from visiting us
and saw some dancing in and out of the trees here in East Texas.
No, it was not fire flies - we've all been around too long to
mistake that - and no, not a swarm of fire flies, either.
you happen to work for one of those National Technical Means
outfits and want to drop me an email, I will see if I can talk
the reader into sending along the full size files as an
attachment, so they can be enhanced so we can see what we have
going on here. No, it's not the moon...moons don't just
around like that - see the house faintly in the background?
Four Months to Save Earth
of a UN group -
four months left to secure the future of the planet.
Word out of Detroit: Senator Debbie Stabenow, is crediting with
this dandy quote: "Global
warming creates volatility. I feel it when I'm flying."
We must be waaaay out in the outback. Down around the
Palestine Municipal airport we call those summer thermals...you
know, sun heats up asphalt and you get a little lift as
you come over the numbers on the runway? Drop a little
when you're clear the runway on departure? But hey!
Don't let me throw any science in your way...
--- snip and save section ---
With Public Speaking
Not very often I get out and do public speaking...but for some
reason, I find myself doing two public appearances over the next
week. A couple of thoughts on how to go about such things
since the reason I did radio journalism instead of teevee
reporting was because I really like not having my mug all over
The first thing is a noon meeting in Tyler, Texas where a few
folks from the web bot discussion group have asked me to drop by
their gathering. It's set up for noon on Saturday and more
details (where it will be, for example) will be posted on the
Peoplenomics.com web site this afternoon.
The second group will be a local writer's group meeting in
Palestine, Texas next week. Just to talk about writing.
That oughta be interesting because I have never been
particularly attentive to the whims of the punctuation police,
preferring to write whatever comes out of the fingertips.
Still, talking about writing makes as much sense as touching
smells, so I offered to share a few thoughts.
In both cases, I will be using PowerPoint and a good
I've tried a lot of different ways to communicate, but whether
you're a presenter trying to stick to an outline, or someone in
the audience trying to stay awake and on-point, the only thing
better than a well-done .PPT is a full-up video production and
while that might be fund, it's just not practical for most
A couple of basics of .PPT writing that I try to stick with:
Keep the slide content short and large - If the audience
can't read it, it's pretty boring stuff - a page that 'grays
out' in PowerPoint is inexcusable.
Match decor, if you can, in color schemes. If you have
that dark burgundy carpet in your conference room, with a
rosewood conference table, that oughta be your background,
or so it seems to me. Minimally, it should be a color
scheme that compliments things.
Never use a white or light background. Way too much
glare in general, but even more important, your words sink
compared with a dark
background, if you see my point.
more than two or three 'text' slides without some kind of
graphic. There are plenty of 'royalty-free' pictures
available on the web.
For custom graphics, the fastest way to make flow-charts and
such is to use something like
Inspiration and if necessary, paste a graphic from
either into a graphics editor like
CorelDraw and then export at whatever resolution/scaling
Whatever you do, don't just 'read' the PPT - talk around
some of the key points on each page according to what you
think the audience wants to hear. They will be able to
follow the drift of what you're saying and believe me -
nothing is worse than having someone read a PPT -
it's like being in a medial English class, I swear.
Learn to use PowerPoint for its other great purpose - a kind
of visual scratchpad. Back in corpworld days, when a
colleague and I were in meetings with a client, one of us
would 'lead' and one of us would 'drive'. The role of
the 'driver' was to make notes on the conversation on a
PowerPoint on a real-time basis, so that as soon as a
meeting was done, the 'minutes' would be emailed around, and
there was never any dispute about who said what, or who had
what deliverables due when, because the PPT driver had the
notes up during the discussion and anything contentious was
dealt with in the meeting - just helped efficiency a lot.
of my PPT's use a dark blue background, seldom touch things like
animations (can you say hokey?) and if I have time to do a
soundtrack (which is what I have a studio for, eh?) then put
music into it (off a licensed library, of course) and make the
soundtrack really 'pop'. Otherwise, you're better off
doing no soundtrack.
One of these days, I might actually get a weekly planner going
for "Copi9ng" section content. Something like management
101 on Mondays, Taxes and personal finance on Tuesdays, tinfoil
hat Wednesdays, wildcard Thursdays, and then home & garden
Fridays. Sounds useful, doesn't it?
But in the end, like most everything else I do...it will start
off on one heading and drift around to something else. So
why bother in the first place?
Anyway, by sometime this afternoon, I should have the meeting
location notes (Tyler, Texas is a hint, noon Saturday) up on the
subscriber web site. Based on response so far, looks like
about 50-100 people will be on hand. The way I figure it
is this: Even if my PPT isn't to your liking, you'd at
least be able to meet up with like-minded people and chat about
this, or that. Folks with the same mindset who won't look
at you like you have two heads when you say 'predictive
linguistics' or 'bank holidays' may be ion short supply in other
The newest update to the Maxa Cookie Manager software has been
released and you can download it here:
Jens ) Maxa's chief techno-wizard, outlines the update's
features as follows:
New option to fine tune automatic deletion of cookies
according to evaluation result and age. This improves
automatic cookie handling as you can specify to delete
cookies that are older than x minutes automatically, or only
delete web bugs or those that were rated yellow for example.
You'll find this in the white list window.
Added history of visits to privacy test -Support of version
2.5 of Flock internet browser
Support of "The World" browser -Stability and speed
If you try the free version and like it, remember it doesn't
delete the browser-independent cookies unless you upgrade.
There's an upgrade option in the upper right of the demo - the
unlock will cost you $35.
Why have I been such a supporter of the Maxa product - I mean
for months and months? Well, you saw where even CNN is
running headlines like "Think
you deleted your cookies? Think again..."
Now that this is rolling over into the MSM, we will likely see a
lot more headlines like "Flash
Cookie Researchers Spark Quantcast Change" as folks become
aware that the browser-independent cookies can not only
be a privacy backdoor, but they can also slow your computer
performance way down.
Oh, and since I put Maxa on of my busiest machine here, it has
eliminated (you'll love this) 32,841 cookies.
Reports in media that flu shots will be mandatory in Greece
aren't exactly accurate, says our reader in the land of gyros
The article about "Greece, are
planning to make swine/engineered flu vaccinations mandatory
for everyone" it's kind of old news here since the media is
borbarding us bit by bit every single day, since April-May i
think. The odd thing about it is the speach of doctors in
the media about "the new vaccines will be tested on all of
us, since there is no time to see the reactions of it in a
bigger scale" and that each and everyone that wants (or must
or forced) to have the vaccine will sign a paper that
states, more or less, that "I, the receiver of the vaccine,
am aware of all the possible reactions or problems that it
might cause and take it by my own will", so the health
department will be fine after "who knows what" this vaccine
might cause. I thing that i will stick to vits C and D3 and
take the vaccine only if i get the flu or drugged
If you need help with that, Retsina may help...
Elaine's going to be taking a flying lesson later on today.
Asked her to take a camera up and snap a picture of Uretopia
from the air...will let you see it if it comes out/she
My son says flying Microsoft Flight simulator is harder than
flying a real plane. I think that sometimes, too. Maybe I
need three monitors instead of two and the yoke and foot
Still, not even considering an airplane until she gets her
ticket to solo. Then...well....airplanes hold their value
pretty good compared with, oh, paper money, for example.
One more reason I got my pilot's license updated:
"Airlines to require more passenger daya" starting this week.
Don't mind submitting my gender (if the beard and mustache
aren't enough of a clue on the photo ID, or reporting my age.
But ask Elaine her age? Ha! Hat's classified so far
it's not funny.,...
Wednesday August 12, 2009
Summer of Hell Building
Ah...so this is what a 'summer of hell' linguistically builds
to, eh? Headlines like turncoat congressman Arlen Specter
not 'representative of America'. But, as one reader in
West Virginia noted, those from the Hill that are seeming to
hold protest-free meetings may be stacking the deck a bit for
just saw on the evening news that West Virginia Senator Jay
Rockefeller presided over a local Town Hall meeting on the
proposed Health Care Reform bill. There were no protests,
shouting, pushing or disruption in any form! Are Mountain
State residents more civilized than in other states? Perhaps
more inclined toward thoughtful debate than our fellow
Americans? Nooooo... The meeting was by invitation only,
with all questions pre-screened. I had not even heard that
this event was going to happen, until just now, after the
fact. My invitation must been lost in the mail."
Not surprisingly, "Officials
see rise in militia groups across the US", another data
point worth noticing. Remember linguistically, we've been
waiting for rioting in the UK to show up as a temporal marker
that the upswing in people versus their government would be
getting into the nonlinear portion of the tension building?
And it was supposed to be concurrent with rioting in France?
the swastika that was painted on the office sign of a Georgia
So here's how the linguistics are really starting to fill out
the 'summer of hell' descriptor set now:
Cliff, who runs the predictive linguistics project sent a note
earlier this week reiterating why we aren't trying to
forecast each of the multiple earthquakes in this period. "yet
another 7.6...just as the data suggested, pretty soon we
will get to nearly daily at that level, so why comment on it? "
And less than 13-minutes later, a 6.4 in Japan: the story
in the NY Times from Tuesday headlines:
Japanese earthquake in days injures 100". More
coming. Seat belts?
Your continued skepticism of our project is welcome...but this
sequence is moving over to the 'web bot hit' column, don'tcha
Won't even mention the 80" of rain stories, OK?
The story in the NY Daily News about how
George Soros is giving out $175-million to aid the neediest
students in the Empire State is interesting. Wonder if
he hasn't heard the pitchforks being sharpened?
Losing How Much?
Oh-oh. Here goes a huge REIT problem as "Maguire
Properties to default on 7 prime office buildings".
Yes, a loss reported at $375.7 million is one third of a
billion plus a few beers and a used Gulfstream left over.
Look for an update when the Fed decision comes out this
afternoon. Not that their no move decision itself will be
worth nothing - it's baked in the cake already. But, how
they word the accompanying statement may give us some insight
into their thinking going forward, which is what the market will
focus on. FedSpeak on the upside is my bet.
Trade Loss: $27-billion
From the Census Bureau this morning:
Goods and Services
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced
today that total June exports of $125.8 billion and imports
of $152.8 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit
of $27.0 billion, up from $26.0 billion in May, revised.
June exports were $2.4 billon more than May exports of
$123.4 billion. June imports were $3.5 billion more than May
imports of $149.3 billion. In June, the goods deficit
increased $1.2 billion from May to $38.4 billion, and the
services surplus increased $0.1 billion to $11.4 billion.
Exports of goods increased $1.9 billion to $84.0 billion,
and imports of goods increased $3.0 billion to $122.4
billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $41.8
billion, and imports of services increased $0.4 billion to
June, the goods and services deficit decreased $33.2 billion
from June 2008. Exports were down $35.8 billion, or 22.2
percent, and imports were down $69.0 billion, or 31.1
The May to June increase in exports of goods reflected
increases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.2
billion); capital goods ($0.4 billion); foods, feeds, and
beverages ($0.3 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts,
and engines ($0.1 billion). Consumer goods and other goods
were virtually unchanged.
The May to June increase in imports of goods reflected
increases in industrial supplies and materials ($3.9
billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.9
billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion); and
other goods ($0.1 billion). Decreases occurred in consumer
goods ($1.7 billion) and capital goods ($0.1 billion).
expect when we see numbers for July (next month) there
will be a good-sized pop UP in the deficit. Thank the
foreign made car sales which boomed during the cash-for-clunkers
spike for that, eh? This is interesting data only if you
are a fan of rear-view economics. Care to guess what my
stance on it is?
should get our next update on Maxa-Tools Cookie Manager (v. 3.5)
tomorrow - free upgrade for people using the Pro version -
Should have a new free demo version up.
usual, we have been way ahead of the curve on this: But
notice if you will Jeremy Kirk's article in PC World "Study:
Adobe Flash Cookies Pose Vexing Privacy Questions."
MSM can't be too far behind...
how comfortable it can be out on the bleeding edge?
--- snip and save section ---
With Mass Hysterias
Like so many mornings, one of the first things that hits me is
the sheer number of people who ask me to express an opinion on
this 'late breaking report' or that. Everything from the
planned bombing of the moon (What's in that 2-ton kinetic
device, anyway?"), to reports of FEMA 'concentration camps" to
the imminent arrival (even in purported testing in Idaho) of
foreign troops who will be used to 'control the US population.
Throw into the mix reports that some countries in Europe, such
Greece, are planning to make swine/engineered flu vaccinations
mandatory for everyone and you have the makings of a
fine novel of the horror genre.
For good measures, let's not miss out on those rumors that some
big software companies are planning for mass layoffs of 80% of
their workforce as part of their contingency planning efforts,
along with trying to stockpile at least 6-months of forward
operating cash because when hyperinflation comes along, besides
the price of gasoline going to $10/ gallon and so forth at the
store, there will also be a tremendous impact of companies cash
flows, such that when inflation hits before prices catch up,
there could indeed be huge cash shortfalls.
Since banks are not in much of a lending mood, because so many
of them have been 'behaving badly' in the recent housing bubble
now collapsing (yes, the declines continues) they too are trying
to figure their own equivalents to the congressional 'continuity
of government' exercises; think of it as 'continuity of
banking', if you will.
There are a number of problems with some of the reports,
however, which should be apparent to a thinking person.
Many reports, such as those of concentration camp type
installations, give small voice to the realities of what a
semi-meltdown of America would be like:
Open acts of sedition & revolution would need to be
immediately contained, lest they spread and cause
breakdown of critical infrastructure.
Critical infrastructure would really need to be
protected, and I expect that's why the FEMA NLE09 just
completed would have been focused on some of the
nation's 'soft underbelly' as I outlined in last week's
However, at the same time, some of the scenarios envisioned
(which I get asked to comment on) are outlandish on the
Rounding up different color 'lists' of people may be an
option, but we have to pause long enough to ask
ourselves "How much manpower would that require, and
where's that manpower going to come from?" The
reality is that we have a huge military force but it's a
little occupied (poor choice of words perhaps) in oil
and strategic areas like Iraq and Iran.
American still is the most heavily armed civilian
population in history. Imposition of martial law
or the imposition of adult mandatory vaccinations would
not be an easy thing, especially since chemtrail reports
abound; folks are skeptical of government.
in the interest of intellectual honesty, I have not heard of
many (if any) commercial pilots weighing in arguing that
chemtrails (just to pick one) are a real mass population
spraying program. Not to put too fine a point on it, but I
know a few commercial airplane pilots and they unanimously hold
to the view that when they see 'chemtrails' some actually look
closely and arrive at the conclusion they are contrails,
which is a common aeronautical phenomena.
said that, however, one of the reasons that I'm getting back
into flying (getting my license reactivated, going through
biennial flight review, and probably upgrading to a complex
[pressurized] single engine sign-off) is to get myself into a
better position from which to view purported chemtrails
first-hand. Oh, and take pictures.
Similarly, if anyone knows of a FEMA 'concentration camp' within
a 250-mile radius of either Dallas or Houston, please let me
know where it is, so that I can do a drive-by? I'd like to
have a look-see for myself and draw my own conclusions.
Texas, as youi know, is a fiercely independent place and while
'mandatory vaccinations' are on the books, it ONLY applies to
school-aged children in most states.
However, that doesn't stop me from acknowledging that the
evidence that 'inoculations' work is spotty at best. One
could observe that the polio outbreak had pretty much burned
itself out when the much touted Salk vaccine came along, and to
read that the inoculation festival planned this fall will
involve not one - but three- shots (conventional, bird,
and swine if I've got it right) does get the hair on the back of
my neck to standing up, no question about it.
I'm trying to do is maintain an open-mindedness to the
observable (preferably by me ) facts, so that I can
remain focused on the data and thus to be open to what the data
implies. That's why I find the predictive linguistics work
so valuable: It helps me keep my antennae aimed in the
right direction and may help prevent a person from getting
'sucked in' to the 'shock and awe' factor which can paralyze at
precisely the moment when quick independent action is
called for. Or, on another level, being caught up in any
number of memes/though viruses that are just as real in terms of
control mechanism as an armed force.
the value of commenting and posting of yet further
opinion is counterproductive.
look at the headlines, I don't see 'black and white' - it's all
shades of gray; a mixture of motivation and organizations on one
side and resource depletion & entropy on the other. All
manner of grayscale in between.
Chemtrails: Status: Open - ongoing research.
they look like anomalous phenomena, but are they more than the
result of higher persistence contrails the result of
reformulation of jet fuel to reduce fire danger in event of
catastrophic accidents? Jury's out, planning to go look
more first-hand field work and talk to people with more flight
time at higher flight levels than mine. Hanging around
with the ramp rats (aircraft service people) a bit might give me
some insight. On the other hand, purported pictures from
inside Boeing jets are just weight &Y balance testing equipment
for certification flights so far...but watching
closely...playing with wingtip vortices, too...
Round Ups: Status: Open - ongoing research
I'd be disappointed if DHS didn't have a list of
potential McVeigh-types on the far right, whatever the far left
equivalent is, as well as folks who might be statistically
predisposed to engaging in attacks on America. But, may
round-ups for pointing out the corruption in Washington?
Not too likely because so many people are sick of being ignored;
the ratio of who is targeted versus the available manpower just
doesn't pencil out. On the other hand, during WW II, there
were internment camps, so even the recent advertising for
'specialists' might make sense, depending on what's out there is
contingency models that folks like us who pay the bills don't
have access to.
FEMA Camps: Status: Open - ongoing research
In an age of cell phone cameras, I find reports of widespread
construction just a little much. I can't believe that with
all the web opportunities to upload things like blueprints and
construction work, more hasn't hit the web.
UFO's/Antigravitics: Status: Open - ongoing
For so many reports, there sure hasn't been much leaking - and
involvement of aliens? Need data, not opinions.
Although alien autopsies and lights in the sky are interesting,
the recent Florida sightings are more to my liking.
Linguistically, looking toward South America for contact kinds
of stories since people in the Northern Hemisphere seem mostly
possessed by a 'shoot first, ask questions later' mentality;
something which an other-worldly life force would have noticed,
too, I'm sure.
Bank Holidays: Seem likely, depending on cash runs
Mid to late September on this one. Not that it has to
happen but once a thought-virus is out there and some
critical mass of people start getting f whiff of it, it just
happens. there's not enough cash out in digidollar world
to make ends meet. So the stories you are seeing now about
the possible timing (e.g. before Labor Day) are likely to act as
prequels/kindling effects to the mid/late September eventuality
in modelspace. Feel better now?
You may want some cash on hand before the herd moves on this,
but if you do, you may be in fact helping to cause what
follows. Some quandary, huh? Couple of months worth
oughta do it. Remember, amounts over some threshold level
($2,000???) can trigger a suspicious activity report to the
feds...that's public knowledge.
Sidebar: You saw where the J-Post is reporting
"Bank of Israel halts daily dollar-purchase program"?
This can be read as either loss of faith in the Buck, or voting
with their wallet on how the Obama administration has been
Vaccinations: Status: Closed
There's too much hysteria, too little testing, too much money
for Big Pharma, too many questions about the ancestry of
the swine flu 'outbreak' in Mexico, and the list goes on.
Anyone who is serious about containment would have slammed off
air travel regardless of the economic consequences if this was a
world-killer. There's a disconnect between media hysteria
and governmental response and very serious scientific questions
as to whether an inoculation for whatever it is Big Pharma is
brewing up would actually prevent or even moderate a
killer-mutant strain. There's always the chance that the
inoculation could worsen conditions.
Moreover, there have been
cases per Wikipedia and 1,735 deaths. That's a death
rate of 8/10th's of one percent. The problem?
Worldwide, health authorities are only selectively collecting
data. In the USA, just to pick the local example, if you
come down with the flu, there's no mandatory sampling protocol
and in many cases, I've heard docs are being advised NOT
to collect samples.
To me, it's an example ( as it is to other objective-minded
people) of "junk epidemiology". If you have a
numerator of 1,735 deaths, that can be rigorously measured, but
where's the corresponding diligence in collecting the data to
support the denominator? Guestimates when there are
billions of dollars on the table is not an acceptable
answer to me.
The report out of India that 'Swine
flue cases cross 1,000 mark, death toll climbs to 15"
only implies a 1.5% mortality rate IF there has been extreme
diligence in testing anyone who has flu-like symptoms.
Given we're talking India? Not hardly, but sure makes a
grand number to bandy about as justification for inoculations
with vaccines which will be tested then modified with
additives and preservatives, huh?
Oh...and I'm allergic to many vaccination components, so armed
with nothing more than a letter from my doc, I'm not doing it.
If I die from it, we'll have coffee in the hereafter. No
body gets out of Life alive anyway.
Do we live in crazy times? Hell yes!
Do we live in a world where Big Pharma will exploit disease for
profit? Well, duh!
Is curing people profitable? Not so much as
perpetual patients, kinda like permanent war on the military
It's all a consequence of our ruling paradigm which is all based
around pieces of paper with this many zeroes, or that.
Trillion Dollar Idea!
Which reminds me: Inflation in Zimbabwe is continuing
unabated. A reader was kind enough to send in $3-tillion
(Z) dollars yesterday (along with some silver) to subscribe to
All of which gets me around to a marvelous idea: Why not
stop using that backwards decimal system for counting money in
places like Zimbabwe?
We could go to
hexadecimal money! A whole industry springs up
overnight as we all get rid of our base 10- systems.
Massive relearning and the mistakes alone would ensure full
Think of the mental exercise converting a $20 into a
hexadecimal $14. Or even better, converting all them
$1-trillion dollar notes which are presently laboriously written
1,000,000,000,000 into numbers like "E8D4A51000"
in hex. Is that efficiency, or what? Why, the
savings on zeroes and commas alone could save the environment!
And look how it could hide a 36% inflation rate, since a $100 in
decimal is only a $64 in hex.
Say, can you break an A for me? (That'd be $10 in the
antiquated decimal system.)
Want more? Well, a you could tell your friends that you're
on a 1,500 calorie per day diet and not lie to them. See
how handy base-16 is? Why, you'd be able to shovel in
5,376 of those old-fashioned base-10 calories that way.
Think of all the pie!
Think about it! Do IRS forms require anywhere that
your tax form be filed in base-10? Not that I've ever
However, here's an important disclaimer: If you
file a 1040 using hex, and turn a household income of $131,072
into hex $20,000, don't call me. I'm already
Tuesday August 11, 2009
Good News! We Can
Say what? How do I figure "Good news, we can fire
people!"? Well, you figure it out, then: Start with
the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning that
outlined second quarter productivity increases...
Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor
today reported preliminary productivity data--as measured by
output per hour of all persons--for the second quarter of
2009. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity
change in the second quarter were:
6.3 percent in the business
sector and 6.4 percent in the nonfarm business sector.
Productivity gains in both
sectors were the largest since the third quarter of 2003,
and were due to hours worked declining faster than output.
In manufacturing, the
preliminary productivity changes in the second quarter were:
5.3 percent in manufacturing,
3.9 percent in durable goods manufacturing, and 2.0 percent
in nondurable goods manufacturing.
The increases in productivity in
all manufacturing sectors were the result of hours falling
faster than output. Output and hours in manufacturing, which
includes about 11 percent of U.S. business-sector
employment, tend to vary more from quarter to quarter than
data for the aggregate business and nonfarm business
sectors. Second-quarter measures are summarized in table A
and appear in detail in tables 1 through 5.
The data sources and methods
used in the preparation of the manufacturing series differ
from those used in preparing the business and nonfarm
business series, and these measures are not directly
comparable. Output measures for business and nonfarm
business are based on measures of gross domestic product
prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S.
Department of Commerce. Quarterly output measures for
manufacturing reflect indexes of industrial production
independently prepared by the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. See Technical Notes for further
information on data sources.
here's the deal: If productivity is up 6.4%
annualized, and sales are flat (after backing out inflation) or
even down then you tell me, do you need more people, or
less, to make things?
answer? Hooray! We can fire more people! Hand
me my crack pipe would you? This ought set the stock
market on fire. What do you think we're running here, a
you thought I was a gloomster. LOL...)
Pacific Plate Trumps
A couple of times I've mentioned that there are so many
earthquakes expected in modelspace over the course of this
summer that we decided not to try and pin dates on them, but
rather use them in order to note temporal markers. So,
when the 7.6 happened on Monday in the Andaman Islands area,
it's not like it isn't expected, or many more to follow this
year in the 'large quake' category; 6.0 and larger. The
second quake was a smaller 6.6 in Japan.
There's a part of me that just doesn't want this stuff to be
true because it forces us to reach an inescapable conclusion
that most people won't have the stomach to even begin to
integrate into their daily living: namely that
whole Pacific Plate is asking up.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but since the plate is now
becoming active, we have to at least consider that since the
Indo-Australian plate more or less became the Indo and the
Australian separate plates concurrent with the 1964 Banda
Aceh quake, and since Hawaii lies on an active volcano set in
about the middle of the plate, that we should be considering
some longer term implications.
One of these is that California over ,geologic time scale seems
destined to have more big shakers, since the Pacific Plate seems
to be rotating north along the major fault lines (like the San
Andreas and others) and slip/strike quakes along the Nazca,
Cocos, and North American plate seem inevitable.
We can also see how the rotation southward along the impact zone
with the Filipino plate could account for quakes in places as
diverse as Japan, Taiwan and down around the Andaman
If we look at the plate, we can also see that it's got a 'thin
middle' to it where west of the Nazca plate, it could be
broken with enough geologic pressure building up.
Over a very long (and again, this is geologic time scales)
period, something like the Pacific plate breaking in two,
could be a consequence of continued plate rotation, or
assuming the plate hangs together, we might see a lot more
subduction and activity in the South Pacific.
And my point is? Mega quakes are a periodic reminder that
we may be able to print 'money' all day long, but when comes
time to say who's who, Ma Nature's got a boot that can be
squarely place in our (you know) and all of humanity's great
works (Pyramids to Three Gorges) are based on a tacit belief
that terra is firma.
No, I'm not quoting some yet-to-be-revealed part of the
linguistics (although it's plenty dire ahead. Just an
observation that Ma Nature's got the ability to trump any kind
of paper you hold to as being the most important thing in life.
A couple of readers wonder if this isn't more 'duality"?
"RED ALERT! web bot hit deja vu...George... the seismographs
are maxed out across the board for august 11.NOTE, this is
identical to what appeared on the august 3rd and 4th quaked
that Cliff predicted. most important, this is not reflected
on any of the world quake maps."
See the problem with the time machine? See quakes coming
and no way to monetize that foresight. It's like seeing
Sept. 22 and Oct. 25th area events. besides spending money
while we still have it, getting a few months liquid in hand, how
else do you play it?
Marching Toward Bank
While it doesn't 'go hot' linguistically until the middle/end of
September, there are sure some headlines about that could be
prequels to a major financial calamity again this fall.
Take for example the report that a "Watchdog
says bad assets still threaten banks."
Yeah, like we hadn't noticed...
Another thing you maybe didn't notice: The total cost to
the public of the bailouts is placed at $700-billion.
That's $2,287 and chance for every man, woman, and child
in the country. Not counting congressional jets and dealer
prep... About double that if we just count working people
since only working people pay debts, right?
courts are siding up with the PowersThatBe and blocking Freedom
of Information Act attempts.
We should get more indication out of this week's Fed statement
tomorrow, but in the meantime, folks in the bond market are a
bit 'edgy' about
how the $75-billion in debt sales will go this week.
I assume you've noticed that the dealers buy and then they get
used as security and the whole thing is now circular? Only
a matter or time till someone besides us notice and
Any Fed move is about a zero chance now. So hype around
'markets await Fed report are, oh, you know, mellow dramatic.
Here's something for you: Members of congress have
selective hearing, it seems when it comes to spending money.
Politico reports that the congressional jet plan may be scrapped.
The sage observer will note two things: First, don't trust
that they are really dead since congressional pet
legislation has a way of going Lazarus when no one is looking.
The other thing to note is how congress is able to listen to
angry voters when there is not a well-organized (oh, and did I
mention well-funded?) special interest group lobbying with
checks and votes behind the scenes?
Yup: says to me that the groups pushing planes don't have
nearly as much clout as those pushing mandatory vaccinations,
bailouts for the financial industry, and so on. Selective
hearing; where the lack of a phat purse acts as a hearing
Want some 'good' news? All that talk about 'revolution'
kind of talk that has been in modelspace is out and about now
without the warring in the streets and the 'to the barricade mon
frer'. So far, the headlines, while a bit hysterical at
times around the town hall meeting shout-downs have not resulted
in physical violence.
What's more, the White House is playing down the dangers of
"White House disputes Pelosi contention that town hall protests
Who's running against her, and where do I send a check?
Death By J.I.T., Redux
There's a story in the Financial Times about how "Crisis
and climate force supply chain shift" and the guts of it is
that as things get dicey for long-chain businesses, they are
starting to look local. A little late, but better
than never, one supposes.
Peoplenomics subscribers may wish to refer to Issue
#231 (3/12/2006) for some of the mechanics of "Death by JIT"
Issue #241 (5/21/2006), "Modeling Disaster in JIT Systems"
for some framing of the strategic issues. The obvious
limit on 'going regional' is that there are huge regions (how
about North America?) where supplies of many items simply don't
exist; so many critical parts in whole sectors has been
Important story in the Times of India today that
"Jihadis thrice attacked Pakistan nuclear sites".
Seems they were after fissionable material.
Stories like this are bothersome in two ways: first the
underscore the obvious danger of having nuclear weapons laying
around without international security (that would go for us,
too). But secondly, I'm worried that story timing
is always interesting before events, so I find myself wondering
"Is there some kind of message here that is being telegraphed to
Damn, let's not go there...
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Now See This
You may not be doing a lot of cataract lens implants lately, in
which case, you're excused if you didn't see the note at
www.optics.org about the "nano-lens
goes up-shaped" which means that there are now lenses that
are about as big as the end of a piece of hair.
Now, between you and me, the cool part about the lens is not
that it can see tiny things (although, sure, it can...) but it
also gives us something of a building block to build the optical
equivalent of a superheterodyne receiver which would be able to
look into realms of physics (see
evanescent waves - waves below the diffraction threshold).
If one supposes that 'reality' is nothing more than the
intersection of energies (our friends the
then is it not possible that by tuning in to other
intersections, we might behold different realities?
There is a lot of chatter on the internet about 'invisible
and even that entry I pointed to in Wikipedia bout shadow
Once again, we're caught between having a mind open enough to
explore possibilities, but not so open as to let 'our brains
roll out'. Still, one has to wonder if things
electronic voice phenomena aren't nothing more than
accidentally 'tuning' in an audio setting using a/d converter
sample rates as an effective local oscillator to pull down
voices from somewhere else.
Now, given that we can get down below the diffraction threshold
with this new class of lens, we may be on the brink of a new
EVP is becoming established as an audio hobby with something
a following and some organizations.
The thought has occurred to me many times while walking to work
on a starry night (it's 60-feet from the north deck of the house
to my office) that physically going from 'here' to 'there' using
spacecraft is a terribly inefficient way of getting about.
Far easier to spend some time on the engineering to build
space-time warping gear. Things like the Philadelphia
Experiment and the Montauk Project would indicate (if true!)
that the thought has occurred to others as well.
All of which is not to claim that there's leftover 'spirit'
floating around at the evanescent wave level. But, until
we build some gear and go trucking about, there's no way to
know. If there are 'space-time warpers' who inhabit
Universe along with us, how would we design experiments to go
kicking around the dusty corners of physics to be looking for
Occasionally, promising whiffs coming along. One that I
looked into for a while was about how (purportedly) US combat
soldiers using early nightvision gear reported occasionally
seeing 'monsters' and other-earthly creatures. But, was it
'objectively real' at least from the standpoint of 'this' world?
number of articles on DMT (N,N-Dimethyltryptamine) deserve a
review, since the red-lens infrared display, designed to
minimize impact of nightvision gear on your normal night vision,
could have stimulated the pineal gland (DMT production) to the
point where what was seen may have been purely hallucinogenic.
Or, might be something to it.
Now that the lens exists, all we need is ultra-tiny CCD's and we
can...oh...blow up the dust on the hind legs of dust mites to
see what dust on the couch looks like if there's nothing else
down at that kind of resolution but atomic-scale dust....
Down for the Count
Any place where i can find data about how many are living in
"tent cities" in usa I know your gov has been altering the
unemployment figures and foreclosure figures .... so some
where are these out of home ppl and unemployed.... or have
them already been hauled to femacamps and burnt in acid and
made some kerasin out of em and sprayed all over ameica as
chemtrails??? NAH just taking full path on all these
speculations and fear mongering memes and facts .... just
wondering is there and organization that keep these numbers
?? american red cross ?? humm where are these ppl any way
gone back to mexico ??
Not aware of any good source on this since there's no financial
incentive to keep track of those numbers.
Statistical Inference of the Day: If you don't have
money, you don't count.
Aha! An Urban Dictionary word pair that reflects
UrbanSurvival's inbred skepticism of excessive/useless SMS
texting a long and detailed
story someone suggests a phone call as a more direct way
to have the
Yup. Ham radio or a pay phone...what? No pay phones
I have various news alerts that tell me what's going on in the
world and one of them has brought to my attention that
"Couples face shortage of Canadian sperm."
Inescapable Conclusion: It's hockey season, next
Ready To Head South
Another good email:
I was explaining to my wife
tonight what is happening with the rise in the stock market.
I showed her how the media will usually spin one last rally
to convince the poor 401k investor to pour their money into
the market. She said she heard people at work talking about
getting loans to buy stocks since there so cheap right now.
I explained that the point was
for the owners and CEO’s of companies to have the media push
them to the American public so they can sell their stocks to
poor innocent people like your buddies at work.
Still not understanding I
printed out the current insider selling numbers. She was
amazed to see that in fact the companies stocks are being
sold to investors as the owners are getting out; obviously
while the stock is somewhat higher.
Take a look I think you will find some interesting names.
More than 80% of the market is machine-to-machine trades (HF or
'flash trading'). Only 20% is human. Ever hear the
term "first look, first shoot' in video games? Dumb humans
playing this one..
Tinfoil Hat & Clothing Department
tinfoil defeats tasers...of course! On the other hand,
avoiding the presence of authoritarian power types is a better
strategy and doesn't crinkle when you walk.
don't let on, or next thing you know we'll have laws that make
it illegal to wear foil and
chainmail. (If you had to look that up,
you don't live in Ansteorra.)
Another one to ponder:
Did you happen to see this ( link)?
Notice the joint statement has
the word "Transparent" in it? Funny word, like they are
going to be anything but transparent? Seamless or
coordinated would work but transparent just sets off the
alarms. Especially with how Transparent the TARP has been
and everything else. We would be lucky to get something
translucent but I think "opaque" when I hear Transparent
now. I guess my windshield is opaque?
Direct quote:"Obama, Mexican
President Felipe Calderon and Canadian Prime Minister". I
guess the Canadian isn't worth even naming? And what's
Obama's title, ruler or something?
Then there was the story, sorry
don't have the link, about the "pentagon" taking over the
national guard units inside a state right from the start to
coordinate disasters instead of the Governor.
Seems to me this has been
snowballing for a long time but Regan and his seizure of
yachts for a pot seed and stem or house if someone rents it
to a drug dealer and can't evict them, then Bush 41 sends in
the regular army to quell the LA riots, then Clinton with
Ruby Ridge - Waco - Ellian Gonzales - then the Oklahoma
bombing and next thing you know the survivalists/responsibilists
that set up Militias to take care their neighborhoods if a
Katrina happened disappeared then Katrina happened and of
course the "government" is paralyzed due to incompetence and
actually the organization that is supposed to take care of
the individual is missing and that would be the individuals
and groups of individuals which is what the Militias are
composed of and designed to deal with emergencies have been
dismantled and of course the Patriot Act (for the loyal PTB
patriots) and TARP and everything else up to now the totally
out of control pseudo-government we have now (more like some
Roman god leader) that doesn't even make a pretense of
following any law whatsoever. (Nice rambling run on
sentence?) The consequences can't be good!
Maybe you can make a nifty chart
and see if there is some connection to the Chernobyl or
Three Mile Island and the jet stream or something because DC
is infested with Mutants!
Well, it's like B.F. Skinner said:
products of their environment. Unless checkbook government
is made a capital offense, no change is happening. Once a
few laws change like 1) no contributions from outside the
district, rick can only live/vote/contribute in one district,
and 2) no special interest groups in Washington, the system has
been hijacked, so I get as far away from it as I can and wait
for the inevitable outcome.
Last But Not Least
OK, so every once in a while you
may find a typo on this page - a consequence of no edotors to
review my stuff. A reader (besides you) does notice now
and then, too:
"Wow! That East Texas
lifestyle is more posh than I expected. I’ll have to get me
some of that for my Central Oklahoma experience! As of now
I only have a 1970’s Casio.
Wouldn’t miss a day Ure Survival!
my calculator, that's
about 2.3 million direct and so times three (one soldier
plus two in support) we're at 6.88 million...... "
But this was not a typo! (Or
so I claimed in my reply...)
"The upholster is the one under
the armpit, the one on the belt is for the side arm and the
one in the boot is for the hog leg.
Boy ya’ll spendin too much time
in the big city…
What do you do for a livin?
Raise them zeroes?
Monday August 10, 2009
SD2: Snake Bite Fever
Know what a snake does after its first bite? It draws back
into position and gets ready to strike again in case what it's
up against doesn't die or get frightened off the first time.
Best I can figure, that's what the stock market is doing now;
coiling back for another strike to the downside this fall.
But, in the meantime, a lot of people are 'whistling in the
graveyard' and saying all manner of hopeful things about how a
Second Depression (SD2) has been avoided by the overtime work at
the printing presses globally.
One fellow to take this stand is Nobel Prize winner
Paul Krugman who figures it that way, but with the important
footnote that recovery could take a couple of years.
Me? I'm not so sure. Not only is there an emotional
'turn' coming up the week of August 16-22, but once beyond that
we get into the fall window for possible bank
closures/financial market limitations around September 22 and
than whatever it is that will comprise the October 25th events.
Short of that, we're in something of a holding pattern, although
as I told subscribers this weekend in the ChartPack, something
like a blow-off high going into next week's options expiration
period would be anything but surprising. A running of the
Although we have no particular financial data today,
productivity comes out tomorrow, so you'll want to be ready for
my usual rant about how higher productivity means fewer people
are needed to do the same amount of work which means higher
unemployment. Yet, it's one of those Holy Grail kinda
things where the dream may be better than the reality.
Another data series like that is the falling balance of trade.
Good news in Wednesday's numbers? Not exactly, since the
main driver in the decline of trade is drive by collapsing
imports and exports. See how this works? It's
good, but it's bad, all at the same time.
Want more? When Thursday's retail sales come out, might
they show that Americans really are saving and looking for
quality that will last a while? That'd be the high case.
More likely: Retail will show a pop to the upside because, like
that snake coiling for a second strike, we're up toward the top
of the 'bounce'.
The 'biggie' for me is always the Consumer Price Index and this
month it comes out Friday. While 'papered' economists are
looking for it to be more or less flat, I'd expect a small pop
to the upside, since what comes with a recovery? Retailers
trying to make up for lost earnings and building up traffic...
Amigos or Stooges?
The headline this morning that leaders of Mexico, Canada, and
the US are meeting at the "Three
amigos' summit dominated by swine flu, trade" has me
wondering is this isn't more akin to Larry, Moe, and Curly.
Missing Ship Meme
Email from a reader:
story of a cargo ship that was apparently hijacked in the
Baltic a couple of weeks ago has just become more
interesting as it
has now apparently disappeared on route to Algeria,
though I suspect it's movements have been tracked all along.
The Russian crew claimed to have been hijacked and tied up
by English speaking assailants posing as police looking for
drugs. Apart from the other curious details of the story
Helsingin Sanomat reports the value of the cargo of timber
as 1.3 million euros while YLE reports it as being worth
300,000. Among other interested parties Russia's FSB are
tracking the ship, which was last seen off the coast of
Yes, this fills out the predictive linguistics expectation in
this area nicely.
Over Our Heads
The report that "U.S.
banks to make $38 billion from overdraft fees: report" has
me wondering again about the average financial IQ of Americans.
A little early for me try and
handle a calculator, but here goes: $38 billion divided by
306-million Americans is $124 a year for every man woman and
child in the Land of the Free. Or, we could just look at the
154.5-million non-farm workforce: $245.95 per worker, roughly in
Notice I said non-farm? Most
farmer have more sense, I reckon. I'll just holster my
quick-draw calculator for a moment now...
Not only are consumers dishing out
big bucks in overdraft charges, but they are also doing a fine
job of getting rid of cars that are paid for and are
strapping on more debt
now that another $2-billion in the cash for clunkers program has
Old news? Yes and no. What it means is that US fleet
economy numbers may improve a bit over time, which has
Hillary telling people in Angola that $70 oil is 'not bad"'
NYMEX crude down a tad this morning on a stronger dollar.
Chevron's got a 100,000 barrel per day oil operation coming
online in Angola in Q-3. so if you're wondering why
Hil's in Angola, that's maybe a clue. The PTB are drawn to
crude like bees are drawn to flowers. Now we just have to
"Keep Angola Free".
One of the most amazing things about leaving the world of
corpgov for me has been to watch first-hand as natural resources
get monetized. Take, for example a tree. A Southern
Pine drops a cone, the cone takes root and up comes a new tree.
17-years later, there's a 70-foot tree ready for harvest.
But the process up until harvesting doesn't involve money.
If the wind comes along and blows the tree over, falling it was
free, also. It's only when humans come along
and say "Aha! That's a tree good for X board
feet..." that a number is attached to it. Same thing with
crops in the garden. Universe drops seeds here and there,
all free. Humans come along and assign 'values' to it and
suddenly, we can't share - we have to 'work' for 'money'...it's
really quite amazing.
The same thing works for oil: It's just sitting in pools
underground, waiting to be tapped. Until someone claims
ownership and puts a bit into the ground, the oil is free.
Suddenly, however there's a moment of ownership where the
miracle of non-sharing takes place, although people don't look
at it that way.
That state-change at the moment when possession is declared
fascinates me no end. Must be something in the coffee this
The House, members of which are already cancelling their town
hall meetings because voters are so pissed about so much
'ignoring the will of the people", has gone one better...no make
that one worse:
to buy twice as many corpgov jets for themselves as they
take on more of a role as
The Court of Louis the XVI in pre-revolution France where,
oh surprised looks, please, they had a financial crisis leading
into that, too....
250 inmates hurt at the Chino state prison in California.
Injuries and scars are considered a badge of honor in the big
Number of the Beast
The report that
the Federal Deficit grew by $181 billion in July is maybe
the headline over at The Hill. But what you might want to look
at is that it's a $2-trillion annual rate, and for a country
with a GDP probably about $13.5 trillion in the recession, that
means we're borrowing something like 14% more than we make,
just to keep ends meeting....
So when does the "spend our way into prosperity" myth kick it?
--- snip and save section ---
to Surge, II
The report that a "US
general wants that Taliban is expanding aggressively in
Afghanistan" has me asking again, "What are we doing there?"
I mean besides protecting potential pipeline routes and gaining
Western control of opium poppy growing? Talk that another
45-thousand soldiers will be needed smacks of Bush II's surge in
Iraq - a war which lasted more or less till the oil deals were
If one reads the
three purposes of the Afghan war, one observes that two out
of three reasons are tied to poppies. Why not
decriminalize their use? I know - there he goes again,
you're thinking. But this whole War on Drugs is a modern
contrivance designed for socioeconomic exploitation. What
did humans do for the first, oh, 200,000 years of our species
without drug laws and drug wars?
The Drug War is the modern analog to the
1920's Prohibition era and you'll notice that the Wikipedia
entry on the Drug War lists "Arguments
for the Drug War" but doesn't list arguments against.
The real reason for the Drug War is that it's all part of what I
call the Manufacturer's Resource Wars which will go on through
the collapse of what we laughingly call 'modern' society.
The US military presently employs nearly
1.5-million fulltime and another 850,000 in reserves, many
of which have been deployed.
We can also pencil out that in order to support each
soldier, we employ at least two other people. That would
be people making the guns, the airlines flying them around, the
folks who stock and operate the BX, the whole - you know -
Upholstering my calculator, that's about 2.3 million direct and
so times three (one soldier plus two in support) we're at 6.88
million people in the military industry.
Look what would happen if we were to just reduce the military to
one-half its present size: The workforce would swell by
3.44 million people and, oh-oh, with no jobs, that would add
3.44 million on the unemployment side. Instead of 9.36%
unemployment per the latest BLS report, we would instead have
11.34% unemployment - or higher!
Of course that's why we have drug laws, too. So you will
go to your licensed and taxed guy in the
medical system for your drugs instead of buying some grow
lights. Even better, if we continue keeping drugs illegal,
we also have the whole law enforcement, prison, rehab industry,
too. More employment.
Not saying any of this is bad, just trying to put a little
intellectual honesty on the table so we keep our discussions and
thinking on the level about such matters. We live in a
world where all kinds of human behaviors have been criminalized,
everything from speeding to spitting, and out here at the limit
of resources someone might ask "Is there a different way?"
Same thing for wars. Nope: The 9/11 hijackers were not
Afghans. They were all Saudis. Or, is that one of
those inconvenient facts that's been washed from the public
consciousness, since we've already got an oil deal with them?
Which leaves only the reason "Because Osama bin Laden might be
there" as a reason for the Afghan war. He might also be in
Brazil or South Africa, too. If we haven't smoked him out
in what's almost 8-years now, you think we maybe need to rethink
our approach a bit? Just asking...
Meantime, be ready for the next surge call. Remember the
helluva time the Brits had fighting a war on foreign soil
against people who were defending their homeland.
The old marina truism that a
sailboat is nothing more than a fiberglass-lined hole in the
water which you pour money into seems to be holding true:
Maltese Falcon has been sold for a reported $100-million.
If your maritime experience is limited to jet skis, and you
don't know the Maltese Falcon is a 289-foot sailing mega yacht,
then you need to change your perspective: When oil is $300
a barrel next year, how you gonna find wakes to jump? Here
you missed a chance to buy the best at $40-million off initial
Not to worry if you're a bit
heavy-handed on the bow thruster, just
pick up one of
these to go with it.
The Resurgent Seattle
piece in the NY Times about the Seattle Times being one of
the few newspapers in the country which is turning a profit.
I expect that there's more to the story than what's in the NYT
When I was a 'cub reporter' back in 1970 at KOL, I got to know
one of the Blethen kids who was being schooled in the family
newspaper business. Reporting was something to be learnt
first-hand, hence the young Blethen back in the day was on the
police beat. From there into many other positions in the
paper, I heard later. Seem to recall bumping into him at
some sporting event or other when he was working in sports, too.
In short, a fine education -- not just in schooling -- on how to
run a paper, but the real blood and guts of being a real
reporter as well. Write a story on deadline, get the facts
right, and the rest.
The second thing, which I expect, is that the Seattle Times has
been through enough ups and downs to have kept its books clean
of deal costs. So many of the big papers around the
country have been part of the M&A frenzy, that I doubt most will
ever see a profit, there's so much debt loading of the
balance sheet to fund deal costs.
Been a long time since I've bought a copy of the Seattle Times -
home circulation to East Texas isn't available presently - but
it's sure nice to read how good training, hard work, and a
conservative management approach still pays a decent wage
What's His Secret?
I want to know what Edward Williams
won two large jackpots in the Kansas lottery this year.
I'll let you know as soon as I find
out. Oh, and after I win a couple myself, LOL...
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for
'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on
the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in
the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept
several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet
Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely,
it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers
and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as
you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our
charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it
shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with
the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close
replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you
were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929
deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the
truth be told.