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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday August
15, 2009 07:35 AM CDT
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Colonial Wipeout Acceleration of the Second Depression This may be asking a bit much - since it's the middle of summer and all - but do you remember hitting a patch of ice when out and about doing winter driving? There was a sequence of events that happened quite quickly, yet to the aware driver, they came in quick sequence: Things were going along normally, then the car was suddenly out of positive control as it moved into an area where it could only be influenced, and then you either smacked into a tree or curb, or things got back 'under control' again and you thought to yourself "Wow! Was that ever interesting..."
That m ay be a good analogy to what's going on with the markets and economy right now: Things are slippery & dicey. Just as things looked to be under control when the market rallied a week ago Friday to an intraday high of 9,466.89 and then this week could only manage 9,448.97. --- On Friday the FDIC announced another five bank failures. The largest of these being Colonial Bank with 346 branches (6th largest failure in US history) and then Community Bank of Nevada with 12 branches. If you're a numbers freak, here's the number of main and branch banks that have been closed/reorganized since IndyMac of Pasadena, CA went down a little more than a year ago: 3,433. Details on any particular closing by clicking the links:
As we discuss (seems like almost every Saturday morning here lately), the Second Depression is something of a 'sleeper' compared with the first one for a number of reasons:
The Stock Market seems to be weathering things amazingly well. Down only about 49-points for the week overall as measured by the Dow, while the broader S&P 500 was down only 6½ points for the week.
Not that markets are meaningful: High frequency trading (HF trading) is to the point where the impact of the individual investor's decision-making is really secondary to the automaton/gun slinging program trading which is so large that the NYSE decided to discontinue program trading reports a while back. In the same manner, the Fed quit M-3 reports, too, although you can find a wonderful proxy for that at Trader Bart's site where the threat of deflation seems in our immediate future as the annualized growth rate of M-3 seems to be heading for zero pretty damn quickly.
For now, my "don't play in the freeway" strategy of some treasuries, some cash, some precious metals, and storing a fair amount in physical goods which have future value, makes plenty of sense.
I can almost envision the US Treasury officials meeting with the Chinese and holding up Trader Bart's chart while saying "See? We really are reining in money supply growth and we're only trying to use our Fed to buy enough Treasuries to ensure your investment in dollar denominated instruments maintains fair value..."
As long as the Chinese have some hope of being made whole (on a purchasing power/trading power basis) the financial equivalent of global thermonuclear war can be averted - maybe. ---- "So why would you start off a report like today's with a winter driving image?" you're wondering.
Oh...just to underscore that the whole crapperoo is skating on thin ice, I guess....
Elaine & I just sit back with the popcorn and watch the dramatics unfold. Like a poorly done 'mystery novel' though, we think we see where the plot is going. Key thing to watch is how the dollar fares overseas and when those dollars start coming back to America, then you'll want to blow out of Treasuries into physical goods.
What finance has in common with comedy? Timing is everything. --- My friend Cliff recently tried to buy a gold coin. After being reassured right and left by a dealer than unlike others, he'd be able to make good on delivery "within 3-4 days, 5 at the most" he still found his wait something closer to 4-weeks. We are not alone.
Next week's biggest agenda item? Besides a couple of client calls, I mean? Buying investment grade diesel. --- It's been clear to me for some time that what the Fed is trying to do is print money and press it into the economy fast enough to offset incipient inflation on the one hand, but not so fast as to 'go Weimar (hyperinflation) on the other.
Say what you will about the Treasury, Fed, and complicit congress, they aren't doing a bad job so far. Looking at the predictive linguistic data, seems like we make it through the winter OK - not that it won't scare hell out of people and further deflate most people's life savings, though. The linguistics always express emotional extremes, but seems like a muddle-through to mid 2010 is possible. --- I'm not the only one with a gloomy outlook, though. Mike Whitney's piece "The Economy is in Deep, Deep Trouble" is also worth reading. His question is whether Ben Bernanke has the gumption to raise rates - because if he doesn't, disintermediation (money flees paper for higher returns in other things like food and such) speeds up and inflation digs in at some point... Damn difficult timing call, for sure and all driven by whether the bottom is really in.
Ultra Rich on Thin Ice Remember our cove4rage of those rich Americans who have in many cases been hiding significant wealth outside the USA in tax havens? We don't make up allegations of 'tax cheats' out of thin air, so please notice that the "U.S. (government) building criminal cases on clients of UBS". I assume you remember that UBS means United Bank of Switzerland, right?
And about those folks in Uncle's cross-hairs? Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks. In the right-wing's ruling days, that was one of the percs of being rich - a kind of ultra-rich welfare. And woe be to any U.S. Attorney who roved into that area of law enforcement, huh? Same folks who couldn't build a fence on the Mexico border...how soon we forget and throw rocks at the new guys.
Speaking of Ice You see where a 50-year old man was busted this week in a $65-million dollar daylight jewelry height a week or so back? --- As the second depression unfolds, I wouldn't be surprised to see a modern-day version of legendary Depression era bank robber Willie Sutton appear. Sutton worked then media well, claiming not to use loaded guns in his bank robberies and only stealing from the rich. His best, though, was when asked "Why do you rob banks?" he answered "because that's where the money is..."
When we see someone like that - putting on something of a Robin Hood spin - that will give us maybe a 1/3'rd of the way - maybe half way - into the Depression marker.
Missing Ship There's a report that missing ship out of Russia has been found in the Bay of Biscay of France. Since the ship went missing on July 28th. and it's now the 15th of August, you tell me: If you had two weeks to do it, could you get some contraband cargo transferred to something else in this period of time? Care to bet that nothing out of the ordinary will be found and we'll get reports it was just mechanical troubles, or something like that to wash it from the public mind?
Dropping Polls Background reading: ABC's report that "Fear for Obama's Safety Grows as Hate Groups Thrive on Racial Backlash." --- The Obama administration may be calling out the special interests who are opposing healthcare reform as "Obama says Insurers are trying to block change." Why? Just because they make almost as much money as the healthcare providers, you mean?
Overseas coverage of America's healthcare meantime, verges on scandalous as the UK's Independent paints an ugly portrait of conditions in their piece "The brutal truth about America's healthcare."
Kabul Trouble At least seven dead and nearly 100 wounded from an explosion near NATO HQ in Afghanistan.
Soldier/Hit Man? Watching this story out of El Paso: "Soldier accused of being hit man for cartel". Teach people to be effective killing machines and what?.....
Finally, A Named Storm Tropical Storm Ana is in the Atlantic - first named storm of the year on the Atlantic side. I was beginning to wonder if this year would go into the record books.
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Coping: Another ORB story... This one was interesting...
Yes - different people have varying sensitivities to the phenomena, it seems. Try eating vegetarian for a week or two, and then try a heavy beef diet for a while - see if that changes it around and let us know?
New Radiation Drug? May have to get a call over to the folks at www.ki4u.com to find out how long before this one shows up for civilians, but a new "Drug promises fix for radiation poisoning." A little late for Chernobyl and Hiroshima victims, but better late than never. Wonder what the side effects might be?
Famine Watch The report that the "US sugar supplies 'running out' is worth watching because if the US starts to import more sugar, it's a sign that the home grown variety is not doing well. In an era when food self sufficiency is tantamount to national security, I'm amazed that the Obama administration hasn't made some kind of statement on this - but with so many other irons in the fire, maybe its understandable.
But, watch the price of anything sweet you eat - and cutting down sugar intake is not a bad thing...
Dying to See the Future? Interesting concept here that people who have experienced a 'near death experience' may have gotten some glimpses of the future.
Question is: How is that getting to them? As part of 'dying' does the human brain whip up hallucinogenic (like DMT) and 'trip out on the way out'? Or, do we resolve back to being non-physical members of some universal subconscious mind?
I'm not exactly 'dying to know' the answer here...
See you Monday... --- Send comments to george@ure.net The UrbanSurvival Mall: Peoplenomics This Week: Which Critical Path? We are now less than two weeks from the August 22 'hot date' in the predictive linguistics work from Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com and it's as good a time as any to have a little chalk-talk about how this fall could work out. The earthquakes in Baja, occurring with almost uncanny precision as expected, and the following 6.1 in Japan fulfilled all of our 'duality' expectations, so we're left with a very hard set of linguistics to deal with for the fall. So dire are the possibilities that I told my son, who starts his EMT re-certification program in September in the Pacific Northwest, that he may not be able to complete it. Moreover, there's one critical path into our future that could result in him hiking to Texas (from Washington state) as a wandering medical practitioner in 2010. Action point:, He should pay particular attention to the EMT-W content on the side. If you're not familiar with EMT-W (sometimes WEMT) curriculum, it's designed for first responders in a wilderness setting where you're basically on your own. It's one thing to save a life with 4-minutes response times, one minutes from an AED, and withy 150-drugs and a 12-lead ECG 7-minutes out. It's entirely another when there are no communications and you've got only a trail first-aid pack, OTC medications, and a good pocket knife. From an emergency medicine standpoint, we may all be at either extreme of that spectrum within a year; such is the breadth of critical path possibilities. More For Subscribers Subscription Information MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Maxa-Cookie Manager No, when youi tell your browser to 'empty your cookies' of web sites you've visited, it probably won't get them all. Why? Because there is a whole class of 'browser-independent' cookies that will gobble up space on your hard drive, but more important is they will sneak out information about you without you being aware of it. Ever week I get emails like this one:
Test drive it free by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will be $35 bucks. Is your privacy worth it?
Once you try it out, click the
upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35
unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive
'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer
may run faster. I've taken
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time...
Feeling Thorny? Want to be a thorn in the side of the Old World Order? Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course....
"Live on $10,000" Updated I've told you in the past to order my ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less..." with the rationale that "We're all going to live it shortly, anyway." Don't know as you have looked lately, but the unemployment rate is up more than 3% since I wrote the first edition of that book and underpasses have never been more homely. Worth ordering? Just visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click this little whizzie...
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left... Click here for the index and details. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday August 14, 2009 CPI: Flat to a Bit of Deflation? The report that consumer prices were down at an annual rate of near 2.4% is really quite the remarkable assertion if you've been anywhere near a store lately. We begin with the facts as alleged in today's inflation report;
Basically, it's no change as seasonal corrections are cranked in, meaning any change is within the noise level of the data. Before you get too excited, a couple of things to consider: First is that only transportation (-14.1%), Housing (-0.7%), and energy (-28.1%) were down compared with year along levels. Everything else cost more. Even in these, however, the recent three month picture is different. Transportation is going up 22.7% annualized in the most recent three months (Thanks, C4C program!), and energy's 3-month annualized rate of increase is 32.5%. Housing was still going down, 1% annualized, which I can only attribute to banksters being slow to trade property back and forth and not being willing to admit their 'bad books' yet. More will come out this fall, more'n likely, so no point being in a particular hurry about it. Truth from the Port Picture Port of Long Beach was out with it's July cargo stats this week along with other West Coast ports. July of this year saw loaded inbound containers down 23% from year ago levels. And loaded outbound was down 27.2%. You know what keeps the overall number from being less than 23%? The number of empties which was down only 16.2%.
In order not to be deceived, I backed out the 'empties' and what you have a Long Beach cargo decline of 24.45% YoY to explain away. Green shoots, anyone?
Up the coast, the Port of Seattle's July showed international cargo down only 8.4%, which doesn't sound too bad, until you do a little research and find 2008 international cargoes were already down 15.5% from 2007. Don't ask how much was imported cars which went into the clunker program void.
You can take whatever government statistic you want, but if you want a real handle on how globalism is going, drop by the long shoring watering hole and ask the people who know what's really going on. Port of Los Angeles was down 16.94%, in the month of July, too.
We oughta pass the hat and get Portland a new computer...so they can be quicker on the draw...
Incompetent Leaders
Nassim Taleb, who wrote The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Strange Waters Yup...that ship from Russia is still missing and reports are starting to circulate on the net that something more than just lumber may have been aboard... Missing nukes? August 22 date mention? All getting far to weird...even with just strong coffee. Reports in even the Texas papers - like "Russia dispatches navel vessels to hunt for vanished freighter" - have me wondering "What was on board?" Probably been transferred already, I reckon.
Also missing: Millions of salmon that are failing to return to Canada to spawn.
Fluage Treatment It's hysteria versus planning now, when it comes to the novel/swine flu which has so conveniently shown up just as the country is approaching the economic break-up rump,,, I mean bump... in the road. And boy, is there hysteria building. Take for example the headline that the "National Guard drill at high school to prepare for possible H1N1 riot..." Gimme a break!
I've pointed out how many times now that when the denominator (sneezes and high temps that are flu) is not gathered with any rigor, yet the numerator is, (that'd be counting the dead people in the morgue) you're going to have all kinds of errors in your conclusions. But, hey! What's a missing decimal place (or more) in the denominator when there are governments willing to write checks and extend government control? --- Several readers have sent me copies of the "International Swine Flue Conference" to be held August 19-21 in Washington. In particular, the conference brochure has this section:
Several people have noted in emails that there doesn't seem to be much emphasis on symptom-spotting, triage (sorting people out) and other early stage prophylaxis.
My take? I don't read anything nefarious into this. It's a free market response to a hole in training for HR & management types at the F-1000 level who right now are hip-deep in planning contingencies for possible high impact flu this fall & winter. Conspiracy of some kind? Probably not. Other breakout sessions (like #10) deal with things like "Effectively work with 30-40% less employees" and so forth. If I were responsible for business continuity, I'd probably send someone... --- Then I'd have a talk with Marketing and Accounting. If I we were to really have a serious flu outbreak (seems baked in the cake, maybe with some help, eh?) then what is the impact of sales and profits over the course of winter and how are we going to explain what may be a 50% drop in sales in Q4 or Q1-'10? --- India is being hard hit at the moment: "Mumbai closes all schools over swine flu fears." I won't believe it's a disaster, though, until I call tech support and don't get someone in India. --- The Republik of Massachusetts have deputized comrade dentists to give flu shots.
Information Overload So many people are weighing in on healthcare reform that government is having a hard time keeping up with the flood of emails. Gee, maybe those computers under the Black Fort (Meade) could be retasked to help out, maybe?
Invisibility Approaches :Look at the headline (while you can still see it, LOL): "Invisible doorways or portals a step closer to reality, claim scientists". Catchy headline and all, but is this really something new, or just figuring out that any cloaking/light-bending technology could be used to hide a door as much as it could be used to cloak a person? I leave it to your finely tuned powers of study. (Yeah, right....it's Friday, isn't it?)
Raise This OK, here you go: Print off the story about how Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman made nearly $700-million last year and point out how he lives in 24-hours days, so "How about showing me some love?"
Don't be writing whining when you get bounced out of the boss's office on your ass...Schwarzman probably does more at work than read UrbanSurvival....
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Coping: With the ORB Debate Yesterday's article on people seeing ORBs about brought an interesting range of responses. On the one hand, there were some replies that went to the purely "easily explained" option. Like this one from a professional photographer:
Good to know stuff. But, that doesn't explain what the ORBS are that are seen in places like the Oregon coast where a reader has been watching a lot of ORB activity lately - and no photography involved..
Another offers:
But by far, the best/most fully informed email was this one:
Yeah, I know - the use of the flash is problematic. While that might seem to press the whole discussion over into the photographer's contention that ORBs are nothing more than close-in dust (and in some cases, this is no doubt true) when I've gotten sit-down-across-the-table reports from a person who has seen ORBs 'dancing in the trees' not more than 5-miles from the ranch, or like the report from the Oregon group, I have to wonder: Is there one case in any of this that can't be dismissed out of hand? If there's only one or two out there that are truly anomalous, seems a rigorous study with at least as much money as we're spending to Bomb the Moon might be useful, yah think?
Are Fat Kids Dumber? That's one conclusion someone totally amped out on coffee could come up with after reading that "Preschool thinking skills linked to weight..." --- Send them to Elgin, Illinois: "Elgin declared 'fattest city in Illinois".
Around the Ranch: Student Pilot Elaine got her first real hands-on taste of flying on Thursday. But, she was so busy with all the knowledge being thrown at her on the first day of flying that we didn't get an aerial picture of the ranch. On the other hand, not getting too worked up over flying - yet. I promised myself that before I even consider buying a plane, things would need to fall into a particular kind of order. First, both of us need to get flight medicals. My understanding of the Rules these days is that if you flunk a third class medical not only do you lose your private ticket, but you're also not to fly in the lesser-regulated light sport aircraft (LSA) segment. No, I don't expect this to be an issue.
The next benchmark that would have to be met would be Elaine getting her sign-off to solo. If she flies 2-3 times a week, and I would expect her to do 20-30-hours before she's ready for solo (lots of stuff to learn first these days - how transponders work, how to use an ADF or a VOR if you find yourself disoriented or lost, etc.) - which would put us 10-15 weeks out.
By then, the economy could really be in the crapperoo - and whether civilian airplanes will be fly8ing would be a sort of open question. On the other hand, if the events of the fall are just a prequel to bigger problems next year (likely) then I could get serious about looking for a plane and getting current (biennial flight review) once again.
hen there's the matter of which aircraft. Most likely? Cessna 172...simply because it would be the easiest to transition into for Elaine coming off a C-150/152. Trying to get over my 'type A' personality disorder, a 172 is a nice mix of capacity, range, low operating costs, and so forth. Fancy items that make for a hot airplane (constant speed (adjustable pitch) props and retractable gear all sound like good times to me, but hart to transition to for someone with low hours.
I won't bore you with too much detail on this, but in terms of a personal competency, especially when you've seen pictures of the freeways choked with people fleeing ahead of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, plus the mental acuity required to fly, I suppose in the end it's no worse an idea than an SUV that gets 15-MPG. It may have its place.
Thursday August 13, 2009 Running (of the) Shorts Boy, do I love it when a prediction starts to come true. Remember, I've been talking about the possibility of a melt-up going into options expiration next week as the nears are in about perfect field position to do a record-book 'running of the shorts'? (Maybe you don't get Peoplenomics, but it was there in a recent ChartPack...) The Fed meeting yesterday was - also as predicted - a non-event. Except for this one little part of the FOMC statement:
They might have just as well put a sign out front that said "This Casino is rigged! Come on it - everyone's a winner! Step right up!
And so, the price of gold is up over $950 again this morning, silver is back knocking on the door of $15 an ounce, and the futures are up like crazy. Why, at this rate, I may have to send in some dough to my brokerage outfit so I can go short as soon as the upside stampede gets ready to set new high water marks. --- Another thing to keep an eye on is how the dollar is doing. Especially against a background of headlines like "Dollar dips in Asia after upbeat Fed comments."
If you talk to a Bull in this kind of a market (and you can get past the frothing around the the mouth) you'll heard justifications like "Stocks are being priced like an apartment house would be priced in a period of inflation: The price is going up because the income and earnings potential of stocks is high and isn't the USA the biggest market in the world?
Well, yes, the potential is high, but have youi looked at the forward Price/Earnings ratio of the Dow or the S&P lately? One analysis (up at Gluskin/Sheff) figures it's in the area of 700. Who's ever heard of a market PE of 700 without a disaster on the back end?
Still, trying to judge the extraordinary delusions of crowds has been a longtime favorite of market wonks since the South Sea Bubble. --- Market bounces are hard beasts to figure, although they do seem to have some logical turning points. For example, a 38.2% retracement or a 50% retracement in the 'bounce' is often observed, although in extremes, the bounce can be 80% or more.
Let's pencil this out, shall we?
On a weekly closing high, the Dow finished October 1, 2007 at 14,066.
March 2 of this year, it closed the week at 6,627.
14,066 minus 6,627 is 7,439 points.
The way we get to the 'bounce high' targets is to multiply the 7,439 difference between the high and the low, then add it to the low. Here, I've run out from targets for you:
Nothing would make me happier than to see a closing Dow this week of 9,468 or even 10,348 in a couple of weeks (week ending August 22???).
Unfortunately, from there, what would then follow a series of declines since the second leg down has favored tendencies. Since wave 3's must be equal to wave 1 down, here are some percentages based on the possibilities above.
So you can see what Ben Bernanke and any other smart, right-thinking economist would be worried about, right? There are some possibilities in the cards which, ifs the market doesn't do one hell of a rally, there is what would have to be eyed as a statistical possibility that the markets could melt to the point of unrecoverable.
What could the triggers be? One of the things that caused me to wake up in a sweat last night was "What would happen if people all of a sudden lost faith in electronic currencies? " In such a scenario, there wouldn't be enough paper money to go around. And that's just for openers.
We might not need to go that far in our thinking, however, since there are plenty of headlines that lay ou8t 'game-ender' possibilities. Pandemic flu that kills large numbers of people, a devastating sequence of terrorist events on American soil - that kind of thing.
In fact, if one is solely preoccupied with the preservation of the nation, an argument that a false flag operation which would give the government power to shut financial markets down and re-formulate the economic system, might be one of the few available avenues available.
None of the outcomes is pretty. Which means the ONLY way to get out of this mess for a while would be for the market to go on to new all-time highs, which means a weekly close over 14,100 - and much higher than even that, if you want some measure of sureity, since you'd want it to be a new high in inflation-adjusted terms as well.
Before I get launched into a Peoplenomics-length discourse, I will just leave it at that: More than 80% of the markets is 'flash-trading' anyway - and some figure it's over 90%. Since humans are out of the loop completely in high-frequency trading systems, we are in the financial equivalent of the Cold War where only the presence of humans was seen as the sure-fire way to avoid accidental war.
But now we have all the items in place for an 'automated meltdown' and how low it will go may depend on blind luck. If you read up on algorithmic trading, remember that the NYSE has stopped posting program trading volumes in steps.
The first step toward 'blinding the public' came a couple of years ago when the NYSE changed the rules to supposedly stop 'double-counting' of trades (buy side and sell side), but just a couple of weeks back even that was turned off. Reason? How are you going to keep people wandering haplessly into the Big Casino if you just put your life savings into something and trust machines to duke it out and hand you something back? Never gonna happen.
So here we are today: Rally on (for a while), staring into the dark abyss, and wondering "Gee, how come no one has audited the Fed since they stopped reporting M3...and you really mean my 401(k) money is just grist for some flash-trading programs?"
It's all too much like the Clint Eastwood movie: "Are you feeling lucky, punk?"
Happy Numbering All kinds of numbers out this morning. Import/Export prices, Retail sales, initial unemployment claims, and inventory levels of business.
Do I care? Nope. The biggy is tomorrow's CPI data.
Meantime, the market could rally rabidly this morning because of the headlines that the "Euro-Area Economy Contracted 0.1% in Second Quarter"
Slice of roast Bear, anyone?
Reality: Home foreclosures up 7% in July from June.
Smart, very smart: "RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets."
Missing Ship All kinds of email today - much of it accompanied with subject lines like "Holy sh*t...you guys were right!!!" Referencing the predictive linguistics bit about the ship going missing and such.
Headlines like "Ship disappears in European waters " are all over the net today.
My theory? Gone to a hidden base of some international cartel of bad guys and it's time to call James Bond... not. Still, have to wonder if the Felix Leiter types aren't on the blower to national technical means folks asking for a few keyholes to be retasked, if you follow...
Orbs Are Back Oh-oh - this is serious woo-woo. Have a reader near Avery, Texas who has a 'critter cam' - you know, the kind that people put out when looking for deer that are coming by their feeders and such before hunting season? I'll let the reader explain:
Oh, sure, that would be an 'orb'. These are the little critters that you can find video of on the web doing things like cutting crop circles and what have you. (slow loading link, but search crop circles and orb and you'll find other links).
A while back, one of our friends was going home from visiting us and saw some dancing in and out of the trees here in East Texas. No, it was not fire flies - we've all been around too long to mistake that - and no, not a swarm of fire flies, either.
If you happen to work for one of those National Technical Means outfits and want to drop me an email, I will see if I can talk the reader into sending along the full size files as an attachment, so they can be enhanced so we can see what we have going on here. No, it's not the moon...moons don't just around like that - see the house faintly in the background?
Four Months to Save Earth Out of a UN group - four months left to secure the future of the planet.
Word out of Detroit: Senator Debbie Stabenow, is crediting with this dandy quote: "Global warming creates volatility. I feel it when I'm flying."
We must be waaaay out in the outback. Down around the Palestine Municipal airport we call those summer thermals...you know, sun heats up asphalt and you get a little lift as you come over the numbers on the runway? Drop a little when you're clear the runway on departure? But hey! Don't let me throw any science in your way...
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Coping: With Public Speaking Not very often I get out and do public speaking...but for some reason, I find myself doing two public appearances over the next week. A couple of thoughts on how to go about such things since the reason I did radio journalism instead of teevee reporting was because I really like not having my mug all over the place.
The first thing is a noon meeting in Tyler, Texas where a few folks from the web bot discussion group have asked me to drop by their gathering. It's set up for noon on Saturday and more details (where it will be, for example) will be posted on the Peoplenomics.com web site this afternoon.
The second group will be a local writer's group meeting in Palestine, Texas next week. Just to talk about writing. That oughta be interesting because I have never been particularly attentive to the whims of the punctuation police, preferring to write whatever comes out of the fingertips. Still, talking about writing makes as much sense as touching smells, so I offered to share a few thoughts.
In both cases, I will be using PowerPoint and a good high-resolution projector.
I've tried a lot of different ways to communicate, but whether you're a presenter trying to stick to an outline, or someone in the audience trying to stay awake and on-point, the only thing better than a well-done .PPT is a full-up video production and while that might be fund, it's just not practical for most spur-of-the-moment discussions.
A couple of basics of .PPT writing that I try to stick with:
Most of my PPT's use a dark blue background, seldom touch things like animations (can you say hokey?) and if I have time to do a soundtrack (which is what I have a studio for, eh?) then put music into it (off a licensed library, of course) and make the soundtrack really 'pop'. Otherwise, you're better off doing no soundtrack. --- One of these days, I might actually get a weekly planner going for "Copi9ng" section content. Something like management 101 on Mondays, Taxes and personal finance on Tuesdays, tinfoil hat Wednesdays, wildcard Thursdays, and then home & garden Fridays. Sounds useful, doesn't it?
But in the end, like most everything else I do...it will start off on one heading and drift around to something else. So why bother in the first place?
Anyway, by sometime this afternoon, I should have the meeting location notes (Tyler, Texas is a hint, noon Saturday) up on the subscriber web site. Based on response so far, looks like about 50-100 people will be on hand. The way I figure it is this: Even if my PPT isn't to your liking, you'd at least be able to meet up with like-minded people and chat about this, or that. Folks with the same mindset who won't look at you like you have two heads when you say 'predictive linguistics' or 'bank holidays' may be ion short supply in other areas...
Maxa'd Out! The newest update to the Maxa Cookie Manager software has been released and you can download it here: Jens ) Maxa's chief techno-wizard, outlines the update's features as follows:
If you try the free version and like it, remember it doesn't delete the browser-independent cookies unless you upgrade. There's an upgrade option in the upper right of the demo - the unlock will cost you $35.
Why have I been such a supporter of the Maxa product - I mean for months and months? Well, you saw where even CNN is running headlines like "Think you deleted your cookies? Think again..."
Now that this is rolling over into the MSM, we will likely see a lot more headlines like "Flash Cookie Researchers Spark Quantcast Change" as folks become aware that the browser-independent cookies can not only be a privacy backdoor, but they can also slow your computer performance way down.
Oh, and since I put Maxa on of my busiest machine here, it has eliminated (you'll love this) 32,841 cookies.
Greek Flu Reports in media that flu shots will be mandatory in Greece aren't exactly accurate, says our reader in the land of gyros and Retsina...
If you need help with that, Retsina may help...
Flying Lessons Elaine's going to be taking a flying lesson later on today. Asked her to take a camera up and snap a picture of Uretopia from the air...will let you see it if it comes out/she remembers/etc.
My son says flying Microsoft Flight simulator is harder than flying a real plane. I think that sometimes, too. Maybe I need three monitors instead of two and the yoke and foot pedals... --- Still, not even considering an airplane until she gets her ticket to solo. Then...well....airplanes hold their value pretty good compared with, oh, paper money, for example. --- One more reason I got my pilot's license updated: "Airlines to require more passenger daya" starting this week. Don't mind submitting my gender (if the beard and mustache aren't enough of a clue on the photo ID, or reporting my age. But ask Elaine her age? Ha! Hat's classified so far over MAJIC-12 it's not funny.,...
Wednesday August 12, 2009 Summer of Hell Building Ah...so this is what a 'summer of hell' linguistically builds to, eh? Headlines like turncoat congressman Arlen Specter says "Protests not 'representative of America'. But, as one reader in West Virginia noted, those from the Hill that are seeming to hold protest-free meetings may be stacking the deck a bit for appearances sake:
Not surprisingly, "Officials see rise in militia groups across the US", another data point worth noticing. Remember linguistically, we've been waiting for rioting in the UK to show up as a temporal marker that the upswing in people versus their government would be getting into the nonlinear portion of the tension building? And it was supposed to be concurrent with rioting in France?
Then there's the swastika that was painted on the office sign of a Georgia congressman.
So here's how the linguistics are really starting to fill out the 'summer of hell' descriptor set now:
Cliff, who runs the predictive linguistics project sent a note earlier this week reiterating why we aren't trying to forecast each of the multiple earthquakes in this period. "yet another 7.6...just as the data suggested, pretty soon we will get to nearly daily at that level, so why comment on it? " And less than 13-minutes later, a 6.4 in Japan: the story in the NY Times from Tuesday headlines: "Second Japanese earthquake in days injures 100". More coming. Seat belts? ---- Your continued skepticism of our project is welcome...but this sequence is moving over to the 'web bot hit' column, don'tcha think? Won't even mention the 80" of rain stories, OK?
Buying Love? The story in the NY Daily News about how George Soros is giving out $175-million to aid the neediest students in the Empire State is interesting. Wonder if he hasn't heard the pitchforks being sharpened?
Losing How Much? Oh-oh. Here goes a huge REIT problem as "Maguire Properties to default on 7 prime office buildings". Yes, a loss reported at $375.7 million is one third of a billion plus a few beers and a used Gulfstream left over.
Fed Decision Look for an update when the Fed decision comes out this afternoon. Not that their no move decision itself will be worth nothing - it's baked in the cake already. But, how they word the accompanying statement may give us some insight into their thinking going forward, which is what the market will focus on. FedSpeak on the upside is my bet.
Trade Loss: $27-billion From the Census Bureau this morning:
I expect when we see numbers for July (next month) there will be a good-sized pop UP in the deficit. Thank the foreign made car sales which boomed during the cash-for-clunkers spike for that, eh? This is interesting data only if you are a fan of rear-view economics. Care to guess what my stance on it is?
Outlook Says.... We should get our next update on Maxa-Tools Cookie Manager (v. 3.5) tomorrow - free upgrade for people using the Pro version - Should have a new free demo version up.
As usual, we have been way ahead of the curve on this: But notice if you will Jeremy Kirk's article in PC World "Study: Adobe Flash Cookies Pose Vexing Privacy Questions." MSM can't be too far behind...
See how comfortable it can be out on the bleeding edge?
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Coping: With Mass Hysterias Like so many mornings, one of the first things that hits me is the sheer number of people who ask me to express an opinion on this 'late breaking report' or that. Everything from the planned bombing of the moon (What's in that 2-ton kinetic device, anyway?"), to reports of FEMA 'concentration camps" to the imminent arrival (even in purported testing in Idaho) of foreign troops who will be used to 'control the US population.
Throw into the mix reports that some countries in Europe, such as Greece, are planning to make swine/engineered flu vaccinations mandatory for everyone and you have the makings of a fine novel of the horror genre.
Since banks are not in much of a lending mood, because so many of them have been 'behaving badly' in the recent housing bubble now collapsing (yes, the declines continues) they too are trying to figure their own equivalents to the congressional 'continuity of government' exercises; think of it as 'continuity of banking', if you will. --- There are a number of problems with some of the reports, however, which should be apparent to a thinking person.
Still, in the interest of intellectual honesty, I have not heard of many (if any) commercial pilots weighing in arguing that chemtrails (just to pick one) are a real mass population spraying program. Not to put too fine a point on it, but I know a few commercial airplane pilots and they unanimously hold to the view that when they see 'chemtrails' some actually look closely and arrive at the conclusion they are contrails, which is a common aeronautical phenomena.
Having said that, however, one of the reasons that I'm getting back into flying (getting my license reactivated, going through biennial flight review, and probably upgrading to a complex [pressurized] single engine sign-off) is to get myself into a better position from which to view purported chemtrails first-hand. Oh, and take pictures.
Similarly, if anyone knows of a FEMA 'concentration camp' within a 250-mile radius of either Dallas or Houston, please let me know where it is, so that I can do a drive-by? I'd like to have a look-see for myself and draw my own conclusions. Texas, as youi know, is a fiercely independent place and while 'mandatory vaccinations' are on the books, it ONLY applies to school-aged children in most states.
However, that doesn't stop me from acknowledging that the evidence that 'inoculations' work is spotty at best. One could observe that the polio outbreak had pretty much burned itself out when the much touted Salk vaccine came along, and to read that the inoculation festival planned this fall will involve not one - but three- shots (conventional, bird, and swine if I've got it right) does get the hair on the back of my neck to standing up, no question about it.
What I'm trying to do is maintain an open-mindedness to the observable (preferably by me ) facts, so that I can remain focused on the data and thus to be open to what the data implies. That's why I find the predictive linguistics work so valuable: It helps me keep my antennae aimed in the right direction and may help prevent a person from getting 'sucked in' to the 'shock and awe' factor which can paralyze at precisely the moment when quick independent action is called for. Or, on another level, being caught up in any number of memes/though viruses that are just as real in terms of control mechanism as an armed force.
Thus, the value of commenting and posting of yet further opinion is counterproductive.
When I look at the headlines, I don't see 'black and white' - it's all shades of gray; a mixture of motivation and organizations on one side and resource depletion & entropy on the other. All manner of grayscale in between.
Chemtrails: Status: Open - ongoing research. Yes, they look like anomalous phenomena, but are they more than the result of higher persistence contrails the result of reformulation of jet fuel to reduce fire danger in event of catastrophic accidents? Jury's out, planning to go look more first-hand field work and talk to people with more flight time at higher flight levels than mine. Hanging around with the ramp rats (aircraft service people) a bit might give me some insight. On the other hand, purported pictures from inside Boeing jets are just weight &Y balance testing equipment for certification flights so far...but watching closely...playing with wingtip vortices, too...
Round Ups: Status: Open - ongoing research I'd be disappointed if DHS didn't have a list of potential McVeigh-types on the far right, whatever the far left equivalent is, as well as folks who might be statistically predisposed to engaging in attacks on America. But, may round-ups for pointing out the corruption in Washington? Not too likely because so many people are sick of being ignored; the ratio of who is targeted versus the available manpower just doesn't pencil out. On the other hand, during WW II, there were internment camps, so even the recent advertising for 'specialists' might make sense, depending on what's out there is contingency models that folks like us who pay the bills don't have access to.
FEMA Camps: Status: Open - ongoing research In an age of cell phone cameras, I find reports of widespread construction just a little much. I can't believe that with all the web opportunities to upload things like blueprints and construction work, more hasn't hit the web.
UFO's/Antigravitics: Status: Open - ongoing research For so many reports, there sure hasn't been much leaking - and involvement of aliens? Need data, not opinions. Although alien autopsies and lights in the sky are interesting, the recent Florida sightings are more to my liking. Linguistically, looking toward South America for contact kinds of stories since people in the Northern Hemisphere seem mostly possessed by a 'shoot first, ask questions later' mentality; something which an other-worldly life force would have noticed, too, I'm sure.
Bank Holidays: Seem likely, depending on cash runs Mid to late September on this one. Not that it has to happen but once a thought-virus is out there and some critical mass of people start getting f whiff of it, it just happens. there's not enough cash out in digidollar world to make ends meet. So the stories you are seeing now about the possible timing (e.g. before Labor Day) are likely to act as prequels/kindling effects to the mid/late September eventuality in modelspace. Feel better now?
You may want some cash on hand before the herd moves on this, but if you do, you may be in fact helping to cause what follows. Some quandary, huh? Couple of months worth oughta do it. Remember, amounts over some threshold level ($2,000???) can trigger a suspicious activity report to the feds...that's public knowledge.
Sidebar: You saw where the J-Post is reporting "Bank of Israel halts daily dollar-purchase program"? This can be read as either loss of faith in the Buck, or voting with their wallet on how the Obama administration has been acting lately...
Vaccinations: Status: Closed There's too much hysteria, too little testing, too much money for Big Pharma, too many questions about the ancestry of the swine flu 'outbreak' in Mexico, and the list goes on. Anyone who is serious about containment would have slammed off air travel regardless of the economic consequences if this was a world-killer. There's a disconnect between media hysteria and governmental response and very serious scientific questions as to whether an inoculation for whatever it is Big Pharma is brewing up would actually prevent or even moderate a killer-mutant strain. There's always the chance that the inoculation could worsen conditions.
Moreover, there have been 215,090 cases per Wikipedia and 1,735 deaths. That's a death rate of 8/10th's of one percent. The problem?
Worldwide, health authorities are only selectively collecting data. In the USA, just to pick the local example, if you come down with the flu, there's no mandatory sampling protocol and in many cases, I've heard docs are being advised NOT to collect samples.
To me, it's an example ( as it is to other objective-minded people) of "junk epidemiology". If you have a numerator of 1,735 deaths, that can be rigorously measured, but where's the corresponding diligence in collecting the data to support the denominator? Guestimates when there are billions of dollars on the table is not an acceptable answer to me.
The report out of India that 'Swine flue cases cross 1,000 mark, death toll climbs to 15" only implies a 1.5% mortality rate IF there has been extreme diligence in testing anyone who has flu-like symptoms. Given we're talking India? Not hardly, but sure makes a grand number to bandy about as justification for inoculations with vaccines which will be tested then modified with additives and preservatives, huh?
Oh...and I'm allergic to many vaccination components, so armed with nothing more than a letter from my doc, I'm not doing it. If I die from it, we'll have coffee in the hereafter. No body gets out of Life alive anyway. --- Do we live in crazy times? Hell yes!
Do we live in a world where Big Pharma will exploit disease for profit? Well, duh!
Is curing people profitable? Not so much as perpetual patients, kinda like permanent war on the military side.
It's all a consequence of our ruling paradigm which is all based around pieces of paper with this many zeroes, or that.
Trillion Dollar Idea! Which reminds me: Inflation in Zimbabwe is continuing unabated. A reader was kind enough to send in $3-tillion (Z) dollars yesterday (along with some silver) to subscribe to Peoplenomics.
All of which gets me around to a marvelous idea: Why not stop using that backwards decimal system for counting money in places like Zimbabwe?
We could go to hexadecimal money! A whole industry springs up overnight as we all get rid of our base 10- systems. Massive relearning and the mistakes alone would ensure full employment worldwide!
Think of the mental exercise converting a $20 into a hexadecimal $14. Or even better, converting all them $1-trillion dollar notes which are presently laboriously written 1,000,000,000,000 into numbers like "E8D4A51000" in hex. Is that efficiency, or what? Why, the savings on zeroes and commas alone could save the environment!
And look how it could hide a 36% inflation rate, since a $100 in decimal is only a $64 in hex.
Say, can you break an A for me? (That'd be $10 in the antiquated decimal system.)
Want more? Well, a you could tell your friends that you're on a 1,500 calorie per day diet and not lie to them. See how handy base-16 is? Why, you'd be able to shovel in 5,376 of those old-fashioned base-10 calories that way. Think of all the pie!
Think about it! Do IRS forms require anywhere that your tax form be filed in base-10? Not that I've ever seen...
However, here's an important disclaimer: If you file a 1040 using hex, and turn a household income of $131,072 into hex $20,000, don't call me. I'm already hexed.
Tuesday August 11, 2009 Good News! We Can Fire People Say what? How do I figure "Good news, we can fire people!"? Well, you figure it out, then: Start with the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning that outlined second quarter productivity increases...
Now here's the deal: If productivity is up 6.4% annualized, and sales are flat (after backing out inflation) or even down then you tell me, do you need more people, or less, to make things?
The answer? Hooray! We can fire more people! Hand me my crack pipe would you? This ought set the stock market on fire. What do you think we're running here, a non-profit?
(And you thought I was a gloomster. LOL...)
Pacific Plate Trumps Everything A couple of times I've mentioned that there are so many earthquakes expected in modelspace over the course of this summer that we decided not to try and pin dates on them, but rather use them in order to note temporal markers. So, when the 7.6 happened on Monday in the Andaman Islands area, it's not like it isn't expected, or many more to follow this year in the 'large quake' category; 6.0 and larger. The second quake was a smaller 6.6 in Japan.
There's a part of me that just doesn't want this stuff to be true because it forces us to reach an inescapable conclusion that most people won't have the stomach to even begin to integrate into their daily living: namely that the whole Pacific Plate is asking up.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but since the plate is now becoming active, we have to at least consider that since the Indo-Australian plate more or less became the Indo and the Australian separate plates concurrent with the 1964 Banda Aceh quake, and since Hawaii lies on an active volcano set in about the middle of the plate, that we should be considering some longer term implications.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Plate
One of these is that California over ,geologic time scale seems destined to have more big shakers, since the Pacific Plate seems to be rotating north along the major fault lines (like the San Andreas and others) and slip/strike quakes along the Nazca, Cocos, and North American plate seem inevitable.
We can also see how the rotation southward along the impact zone with the Filipino plate could account for quakes in places as diverse as Japan, Taiwan and down around the Andaman Islands/Banda Aceh.
If we look at the plate, we can also see that it's got a 'thin middle' to it where west of the Nazca plate, it could be broken with enough geologic pressure building up.
Over a very long (and again, this is geologic time scales) period, something like the Pacific plate breaking in two, could be a consequence of continued plate rotation, or assuming the plate hangs together, we might see a lot more subduction and activity in the South Pacific.
And my point is? Mega quakes are a periodic reminder that we may be able to print 'money' all day long, but when comes time to say who's who, Ma Nature's got a boot that can be squarely place in our (you know) and all of humanity's great works (Pyramids to Three Gorges) are based on a tacit belief that terra is firma.
It's not.
No, I'm not quoting some yet-to-be-revealed part of the linguistics (although it's plenty dire ahead. Just an observation that Ma Nature's got the ability to trump any kind of paper you hold to as being the most important thing in life.
A couple of readers wonder if this isn't more 'duality"?
See the problem with the time machine? See quakes coming and no way to monetize that foresight. It's like seeing Sept. 22 and Oct. 25th area events. besides spending money while we still have it, getting a few months liquid in hand, how else do you play it?
Marching Toward Bank Closures While it doesn't 'go hot' linguistically until the middle/end of September, there are sure some headlines about that could be prequels to a major financial calamity again this fall. Take for example the report that a "Watchdog says bad assets still threaten banks."
Yeah, like we hadn't noticed... --- Another thing you maybe didn't notice: The total cost to the public of the bailouts is placed at $700-billion. That's $2,287 and chance for every man, woman, and child in the country. Not counting congressional jets and dealer prep... About double that if we just count working people since only working people pay debts, right? --- Meantime, courts are siding up with the PowersThatBe and blocking Freedom of Information Act attempts.
Bond Jitters We should get more indication out of this week's Fed statement tomorrow, but in the meantime, folks in the bond market are a bit 'edgy' about how the $75-billion in debt sales will go this week.
I assume you've noticed that the dealers buy and then they get used as security and the whole thing is now circular? Only a matter or time till someone besides us notice and then...well...you know.
Any Fed move is about a zero chance now. So hype around 'markets await Fed report are, oh, you know, mellow dramatic.
Selective Hearing Here's something for you: Members of congress have selective hearing, it seems when it comes to spending money. Politico reports that the congressional jet plan may be scrapped. The sage observer will note two things: First, don't trust that they are really dead since congressional pet legislation has a way of going Lazarus when no one is looking. The other thing to note is how congress is able to listen to angry voters when there is not a well-organized (oh, and did I mention well-funded?) special interest group lobbying with checks and votes behind the scenes?
Yup: says to me that the groups pushing planes don't have nearly as much clout as those pushing mandatory vaccinations, bailouts for the financial industry, and so on. Selective hearing; where the lack of a phat purse acts as a hearing aid.
Revolution Meme Want some 'good' news? All that talk about 'revolution' kind of talk that has been in modelspace is out and about now without the warring in the streets and the 'to the barricade mon frer'. So far, the headlines, while a bit hysterical at times around the town hall meeting shout-downs have not resulted in physical violence.
What's more, the White House is playing down the dangers of dissent says "White House disputes Pelosi contention that town hall protests are 'un-American'.
Who's running against her, and where do I send a check?
Death By J.I.T., Redux There's a story in the Financial Times about how "Crisis and climate force supply chain shift" and the guts of it is that as things get dicey for long-chain businesses, they are starting to look local. A little late, but better than never, one supposes. --- Peoplenomics subscribers may wish to refer to Issue #231 (3/12/2006) for some of the mechanics of "Death by JIT" and Issue #241 (5/21/2006), "Modeling Disaster in JIT Systems" for some framing of the strategic issues. The obvious limit on 'going regional' is that there are huge regions (how about North America?) where supplies of many items simply don't exist; so many critical parts in whole sectors has been 'offshored'.
Nuclear Nightmare Important story in the Times of India today that "Jihadis thrice attacked Pakistan nuclear sites". Seems they were after fissionable material.
Stories like this are bothersome in two ways: first the underscore the obvious danger of having nuclear weapons laying around without international security (that would go for us, too). But secondly, I'm worried that story timing is always interesting before events, so I find myself wondering "Is there some kind of message here that is being telegraphed to us?"
Damn, let's not go there...
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Coping: Now See This You may not be doing a lot of cataract lens implants lately, in which case, you're excused if you didn't see the note at www.optics.org about the "nano-lens goes up-shaped" which means that there are now lenses that are about as big as the end of a piece of hair.
Now, between you and me, the cool part about the lens is not that it can see tiny things (although, sure, it can...) but it also gives us something of a building block to build the optical equivalent of a superheterodyne receiver which would be able to look into realms of physics (see evanescent waves - waves below the diffraction threshold). If one supposes that 'reality' is nothing more than the intersection of energies (our friends the kalapas), then is it not possible that by tuning in to other intersections, we might behold different realities?
There is a lot of chatter on the internet about 'invisible beings' (example) and even that entry I pointed to in Wikipedia bout shadow people.
Once again, we're caught between having a mind open enough to explore possibilities, but not so open as to let 'our brains roll out'. Still, one has to wonder if things like electronic voice phenomena aren't nothing more than accidentally 'tuning' in an audio setting using a/d converter sample rates as an effective local oscillator to pull down voices from somewhere else.
Now, given that we can get down below the diffraction threshold with this new class of lens, we may be on the brink of a new hobby. Already EVP is becoming established as an audio hobby with something of a following and some organizations. ---
The thought has occurred to me many times while walking to work
on a starry night (it's 60-feet from the north deck of the house
to my office) that physically going from 'here' to 'there' using
spacecraft is a terribly inefficient way of getting about.
Far easier to spend some time on the engineering to build
space-time warping gear. Things like the Philadelphia
Experiment and the Montauk Project would indicate (if true!)
that the thought has occurred to others as well. All of which is not to claim that there's leftover 'spirit' floating around at the evanescent wave level. But, until we build some gear and go trucking about, there's no way to know. If there are 'space-time warpers' who inhabit Universe along with us, how would we design experiments to go kicking around the dusty corners of physics to be looking for them?
Occasionally, promising whiffs coming along. One that I looked into for a while was about how (purportedly) US combat soldiers using early nightvision gear reported occasionally seeing 'monsters' and other-earthly creatures. But, was it 'objectively real' at least from the standpoint of 'this' world?
A number of articles on DMT (N,N-Dimethyltryptamine) deserve a review, since the red-lens infrared display, designed to minimize impact of nightvision gear on your normal night vision, could have stimulated the pineal gland (DMT production) to the point where what was seen may have been purely hallucinogenic. Or, might be something to it.
Now that the lens exists, all we need is ultra-tiny CCD's and we can...oh...blow up the dust on the hind legs of dust mites to see what dust on the couch looks like if there's nothing else down at that kind of resolution but atomic-scale dust....
Down for the Count Reader wonders:
Not aware of any good source on this since there's no financial incentive to keep track of those numbers.
Statistical Inference of the Day: If you don't have money, you don't count.
Primitive George Aha! An Urban Dictionary word pair that reflects UrbanSurvival's inbred skepticism of excessive/useless SMS messaging:
Yup. Ham radio or a pay phone...what? No pay phones left?
Sperm Shortage I have various news alerts that tell me what's going on in the world and one of them has brought to my attention that "Couples face shortage of Canadian sperm."
Inescapable Conclusion: It's hockey season, next month eh?
Ready To Head South Another good email:
More than 80% of the market is machine-to-machine trades (HF or 'flash trading'). Only 20% is human. Ever hear the term "first look, first shoot' in video games? Dumb humans playing this one..
Useful Knowledge? Tinfoil Hat & Clothing Department Oh, yeah, tinfoil defeats tasers...of course! On the other hand, avoiding the presence of authoritarian power types is a better strategy and doesn't crinkle when you walk.
But don't let on, or next thing you know we'll have laws that make it illegal to wear foil and chainmail. (If you had to look that up, you don't live in Ansteorra.)
Pet Theories Another one to ponder:
Well, it's like B.F. Skinner said: products of their environment. Unless checkbook government is made a capital offense, no change is happening. Once a few laws change like 1) no contributions from outside the district, rick can only live/vote/contribute in one district, and 2) no special interest groups in Washington, the system has been hijacked, so I get as far away from it as I can and wait for the inevitable outcome. Last But Not Least OK, so every once in a while you may find a typo on this page - a consequence of no edotors to review my stuff. A reader (besides you) does notice now and then, too:
But this was not a typo! (Or so I claimed in my reply...)
Monday August 10, 2009 SD2: Snake Bite Fever Know what a snake does after its first bite? It draws back into position and gets ready to strike again in case what it's up against doesn't die or get frightened off the first time. Best I can figure, that's what the stock market is doing now; coiling back for another strike to the downside this fall. But, in the meantime, a lot of people are 'whistling in the graveyard' and saying all manner of hopeful things about how a Second Depression (SD2) has been avoided by the overtime work at the printing presses globally.
One fellow to take this stand is Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman who figures it that way, but with the important footnote that recovery could take a couple of years.
Me? I'm not so sure. Not only is there an emotional 'turn' coming up the week of August 16-22, but once beyond that we get into the fall window for possible bank closures/financial market limitations around September 22 and than whatever it is that will comprise the October 25th events.
Short of that, we're in something of a holding pattern, although as I told subscribers this weekend in the ChartPack, something like a blow-off high going into next week's options expiration period would be anything but surprising. A running of the bears, maybe. --- Although we have no particular financial data today, productivity comes out tomorrow, so you'll want to be ready for my usual rant about how higher productivity means fewer people are needed to do the same amount of work which means higher unemployment. Yet, it's one of those Holy Grail kinda things where the dream may be better than the reality.
Another data series like that is the falling balance of trade. Good news in Wednesday's numbers? Not exactly, since the main driver in the decline of trade is drive by collapsing imports and exports. See how this works? It's good, but it's bad, all at the same time.
Want more? When Thursday's retail sales come out, might they show that Americans really are saving and looking for quality that will last a while? That'd be the high case. More likely: Retail will show a pop to the upside because, like that snake coiling for a second strike, we're up toward the top of the 'bounce'.
The 'biggie' for me is always the Consumer Price Index and this month it comes out Friday. While 'papered' economists are looking for it to be more or less flat, I'd expect a small pop to the upside, since what comes with a recovery? Retailers trying to make up for lost earnings and building up traffic...
Amigos or Stooges? The headline this morning that leaders of Mexico, Canada, and the US are meeting at the "Three amigos' summit dominated by swine flu, trade" has me wondering is this isn't more akin to Larry, Moe, and Curly.
Missing Ship Meme Email from a reader:
Yes, this fills out the predictive linguistics expectation in this area nicely.
Over Our Heads The report that "U.S. banks to make $38 billion from overdraft fees: report" has me wondering again about the average financial IQ of Americans.
A little early for me try and handle a calculator, but here goes: $38 billion divided by 306-million Americans is $124 a year for every man woman and child in the Land of the Free. Or, we could just look at the 154.5-million non-farm workforce: $245.95 per worker, roughly in idiot fees.
Notice I said non-farm? Most farmer have more sense, I reckon. I'll just holster my quick-draw calculator for a moment now...
Greasing Consumers Not only are consumers dishing out big bucks in overdraft charges, but they are also doing a fine job of getting rid of cars that are paid for and are strapping on more debt now that another $2-billion in the cash for clunkers program has been signed.
Old news? Yes and no. What it means is that US fleet economy numbers may improve a bit over time, which has Hillary telling people in Angola that $70 oil is 'not bad"' and NYMEX crude down a tad this morning on a stronger dollar.
BTW, Chevron's got a 100,000 barrel per day oil operation coming online in Angola in Q-3. so if you're wondering why Hil's in Angola, that's maybe a clue. The PTB are drawn to crude like bees are drawn to flowers. Now we just have to "Keep Angola Free". --- One of the most amazing things about leaving the world of corpgov for me has been to watch first-hand as natural resources get monetized. Take, for example a tree. A Southern Pine drops a cone, the cone takes root and up comes a new tree. 17-years later, there's a 70-foot tree ready for harvest.
But the process up until harvesting doesn't involve money. If the wind comes along and blows the tree over, falling it was free, also. It's only when humans come along and say "Aha! That's a tree good for X board feet..." that a number is attached to it. Same thing with crops in the garden. Universe drops seeds here and there, all free. Humans come along and assign 'values' to it and suddenly, we can't share - we have to 'work' for 'money'...it's really quite amazing.
The same thing works for oil: It's just sitting in pools underground, waiting to be tapped. Until someone claims ownership and puts a bit into the ground, the oil is free. Suddenly, however there's a moment of ownership where the miracle of non-sharing takes place, although people don't look at it that way.
That state-change at the moment when possession is declared fascinates me no end. Must be something in the coffee this morning.
Greased, II The House, members of which are already cancelling their town hall meetings because voters are so pissed about so much 'ignoring the will of the people", has gone one better...no make that one worse: Planning to buy twice as many corpgov jets for themselves as they take on more of a role as The Court of Louis the XVI in pre-revolution France where, oh surprised looks, please, they had a financial crisis leading into that, too....
Disorderly Conduct 250 inmates hurt at the Chino state prison in California. Injuries and scars are considered a badge of honor in the big house.
Number of the Beast The report that the Federal Deficit grew by $181 billion in July is maybe the headline over at The Hill. But what you might want to look at is that it's a $2-trillion annual rate, and for a country with a GDP probably about $13.5 trillion in the recession, that means we're borrowing something like 14% more than we make, just to keep ends meeting....
So when does the "spend our way into prosperity" myth kick it?
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: The Urge to Surge, II The report that a "US general wants that Taliban is expanding aggressively in Afghanistan" has me asking again, "What are we doing there?" I mean besides protecting potential pipeline routes and gaining Western control of opium poppy growing? Talk that another 45-thousand soldiers will be needed smacks of Bush II's surge in Iraq - a war which lasted more or less till the oil deals were done. --- If one reads the three purposes of the Afghan war, one observes that two out of three reasons are tied to poppies. Why not decriminalize their use? I know - there he goes again, you're thinking. But this whole War on Drugs is a modern contrivance designed for socioeconomic exploitation. What did humans do for the first, oh, 200,000 years of our species without drug laws and drug wars?
The Drug War is the modern analog to the 1920's Prohibition era and you'll notice that the Wikipedia entry on the Drug War lists "Arguments for the Drug War" but doesn't list arguments against. --- The real reason for the Drug War is that it's all part of what I call the Manufacturer's Resource Wars which will go on through the collapse of what we laughingly call 'modern' society. The US military presently employs nearly 1.5-million fulltime and another 850,000 in reserves, many of which have been deployed.
We can also pencil out that in order to support each soldier, we employ at least two other people. That would be people making the guns, the airlines flying them around, the folks who stock and operate the BX, the whole - you know - system.
Upholstering my calculator, that's about 2.3 million direct and so times three (one soldier plus two in support) we're at 6.88 million people in the military industry.
Look what would happen if we were to just reduce the military to one-half its present size: The workforce would swell by 3.44 million people and, oh-oh, with no jobs, that would add 3.44 million on the unemployment side. Instead of 9.36% unemployment per the latest BLS report, we would instead have 11.34% unemployment - or higher! --- Of course that's why we have drug laws, too. So you will go to your licensed and taxed guy in the medical system for your drugs instead of buying some grow lights. Even better, if we continue keeping drugs illegal, we also have the whole law enforcement, prison, rehab industry, too. More employment.
Not saying any of this is bad, just trying to put a little intellectual honesty on the table so we keep our discussions and thinking on the level about such matters. We live in a world where all kinds of human behaviors have been criminalized, everything from speeding to spitting, and out here at the limit of resources someone might ask "Is there a different way?"
Same thing for wars. Nope: The 9/11 hijackers were not Afghans. They were all Saudis. Or, is that one of those inconvenient facts that's been washed from the public consciousness, since we've already got an oil deal with them?
Which leaves only the reason "Because Osama bin Laden might be there" as a reason for the Afghan war. He might also be in Brazil or South Africa, too. If we haven't smoked him out in what's almost 8-years now, you think we maybe need to rethink our approach a bit? Just asking...
Meantime, be ready for the next surge call. Remember the helluva time the Brits had fighting a war on foreign soil against people who were defending their homeland.
Rag Boats The old marina truism that a sailboat is nothing more than a fiberglass-lined hole in the water which you pour money into seems to be holding true: The Maltese Falcon has been sold for a reported $100-million. If your maritime experience is limited to jet skis, and you don't know the Maltese Falcon is a 289-foot sailing mega yacht, then you need to change your perspective: When oil is $300 a barrel next year, how you gonna find wakes to jump? Here you missed a chance to buy the best at $40-million off initial asking price.
Not to worry if you're a bit heavy-handed on the bow thruster, just pick up one of these to go with it.
The Resurgent Seattle Times Good piece in the NY Times about the Seattle Times being one of the few newspapers in the country which is turning a profit. --- I expect that there's more to the story than what's in the NYT story.
When I was a 'cub reporter' back in 1970 at KOL, I got to know one of the Blethen kids who was being schooled in the family newspaper business. Reporting was something to be learnt first-hand, hence the young Blethen back in the day was on the police beat. From there into many other positions in the paper, I heard later. Seem to recall bumping into him at some sporting event or other when he was working in sports, too.
In short, a fine education -- not just in schooling -- on how to run a paper, but the real blood and guts of being a real reporter as well. Write a story on deadline, get the facts right, and the rest.
The second thing, which I expect, is that the Seattle Times has been through enough ups and downs to have kept its books clean of deal costs. So many of the big papers around the country have been part of the M&A frenzy, that I doubt most will ever see a profit, there's so much debt loading of the balance sheet to fund deal costs.
Been a long time since I've bought a copy of the Seattle Times - home circulation to East Texas isn't available presently - but it's sure nice to read how good training, hard work, and a conservative management approach still pays a decent wage somewhere.
What's His Secret? I want to know what Edward Williams is doing: He's won two large jackpots in the Kansas lottery this year.
I'll let you know as soon as I find out. Oh, and after I win a couple myself, LOL...
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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is now saying something to the effect that '
