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3,610 Bank Branches Failed - And Counting

If you're feeling slapped around by 'cognitive dissonance' - loosely defined as the difference between what you're being told about the economy and what you actually see going on in the world would around you, relax!  The world really has bifurcated - an economic concept meaning (again loosely) split into to separate pseudo-realities that you see on TV.

 

One reality is that with the FDIC announcement of Guaranty Financial Group running onto the rocks, along with three others this week, the number of bank branches closed since IndyMac really got things going last year, is up to 3,610.  Since this doesn't count the ATM's involved, nor does it count online banking use, a direct comparison the 1930's Depression (1)  and the Second Depression (SD) may be elusive.

 

As I stared at the most recent failing banks:

Guaranty Bank, Austin, TX
CapitalSouth Bank, Birmingham, AL
First Coweta Bank, Newnan, GA
ebank, Atlanta, GA

I was struck by the charts floating around on the new supposing that Colonial Bank's failure & reorg last week might have been something of a spike.

 

On the other hand, is you are familiar with the work of Cesare Marchetti's work at CERN (and more recently the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria) he developed a really cool way of looking at data using 'S' curves.  Let's say you have an uneven growth set, like, oh, the stock market.  You should be able to see an S-curve develop if you do a running summation of data points.

 

A good example of this approach can be found on page 2 of Marchetti's 2005 paper "On Decarbonization:  Historically and Perspectively", the second chart down illustrates an S-curve application.

 

Don't mean to run off into the weeds with this, but here's the deal:  Once you have a good sense of how S-curves can be found in summations of large events over time, there's a particular way of looking at the present crisis in the financial sector of the U.S. which suggests that not only is the financial mess far from over, but that if Marchetti's S-curve approach is followed, we could go so fare as to infer that another ramp-up of bank failures is upon us and will evidence itself over the next several months.

 

In the following chart, I have taken the first round of failures, and I have overlaid two S-curves which should give you some serious 'cause for pause' - this particular view of the world suggests that we are just now entering a new - and potentially even more devastating portion of the financial crisis:

 

 

I am deeply in debt to Marchetti for this marvelous way or looking at data which seems to get little play in academia.  Nevertheless, when there is particularly 'noisy' data, the S-curves approach can often act as a kind of Occam's Razor able to cut through the bull sh*t of everyday media.  Doesn't always work, but it works often enough that it's a useful tool in the truth-seeker's quest to stay one step ahead of events.

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The concept that America has launched on a major S-curve of 'money-printing' should also become apparent when you apply this methodology to things like the cumulative growth of the nation's money supply, or the cumulative Federal debt.  Not that I should have to point out that "Obama to raise 10-year deficit to $9-trillion" but  between period economic depressions, such as the period from the Roaring Twenties and the modern analog, the Internet / Dot-Com Bubble which popped in early 2000, there's another S-curve waiting to be discovered by those brave enough to go looking for it.

 

Yet more S-curves can be found when one looks at the longer-term cumulative curves depicted in a study of oil production.  These curves suggest, upon inspection, that yes, Peak Oil is real and although the world is not going to run out of energy this year, the current rates of consumption will become unsustainable at some juncture.  Notice the headline that "Oil settles at 10-month high of economic optimism"? 

 

In a sense, Depressions are good things.  Oh, sure, they play havoc with the budget deficit and president O is finding out, but they do buy time for change and refocus families on relationships and what have you. 

 

The collapse of housing has been horrific, no question about it, and the coming decline in real purchasing power of meager Social Security payments will be painful as well - they're obviously not keeping up with real (e.g. non-hedonistically corrected) marketplace reality.

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Our slowdown in the West has also rippled over into Asia where "China can only create half of jobs needed this year" if it's to hit an 8-percent growth rate.  From an internal perspective, China is working on development of a middle class which would make it much more independent on the US and current export buyers.  But, it can't make that shift until it's middle class is large enough to sustain it.

 

No doubt you've noticed that the Las Vegas jobless rate hit an all-time high of 13.1 percent and in California the rate is now at 11.9%.  Knowing how S-curves work, and how economic cycles become evident with a diligent application of cumulative growth analysis, one can see that New York's 9.6% unemployment is only a start.  Much of the Empire state's 'empire' has been in paper financial products and if you want to apply S-curves there, a case could be made that the demand for such products is completing and should go to stable and decline soon enough.

 

So, along with that ought to come an increasing number of bank failures as we move into fall and winter, attendant political crises and more fear-whipping talk of hyperinflation, while deflation persists in some sectors, leaving both Dr. Bernanke and president Obama in the unenviable position of that old statistics class joke:  A statistician is someone who, when one foot is in a fire and one foot is frozen in a block of ice, says "on average I'm comfortable".

 

The underlying dynamic is that the megabanks will be engaged in their own S-curve which one can see ramping up - acquiring smaller banks that have market share.  The U.S. dollar hegemony should be failing over time, too, and in the process of transition to a global currency basket, we ought to see fits & starts there, too.  I'd draw your attention to "BBVA which becomes the 15th biggest US bank in deposits after Guaranty purchase" says the WSJ online today.

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But enough of this seriousness!  We live in a country which has been three card Monte'd into thinking that headlines like "Heather Locklear in talks to move back to 'Melrose Place'; would reprise role from original show" and "Project Runway All-Stars: Daniel & Korto talk about their showdown". are somehow important.

 

Besides, how can Ben Bernanke hope to compete with headlines like that when he gets up before his learned colleagues and says stuff like:

"History is full of examples in which the policy responses to financial crises have been slow and inadequate, often resulting ultimately in greater economic damage and increased fiscal costs. In this episode, by contrast, policymakers in the United States and around the globe responded with speed and force to arrest a rapidly deteriorating and dangerous situation."

Oh?  Not when I line up the S-curves.  But time will decide who's got the right call here and in the meantime, we live in a world where T&A, and Tinsel Town talk trumps economic reality.

 

So go have a weekend - and remember my advice:  "Work harder for yourself than you do anyone else."  That's the safest way I've found to get ahead, and stay ahead, in uncertain times.  If you go to work Monday all rested and refreshed... you're cheating yourself in the long run.

 

Be your own most demanding boss and see you Monday morning...  More on self-organizing collectives for Peoplenomics subscribers on Sunday afternoon.

 

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Send comments to george@ure.net

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The UrbanSurvival Mall:

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Three items on the agenda this week.  One is to address a reader who wondered how I could say something to the effect that 'government was doing a pretty good job, all things considered' when I also happen to think we're in the midst of dropping into the depths of the second depression.  Good question...I'll see if I can explain.  Secondly, there's a 70+ slide PowerPoint that you can download as a PDF which was given to the East Texas self-organizing collective meting in Tyler, TX Saturday afternoon.  Great fajitas and fellowship.  And then, there's the matter of what's it's gonna be as we are now in that August 16-22 window where something becomes a prequel to events to follow over the course of this fall.  So grab some popcorn, we've got a front row section reserved for us at the economic train wreck.

More For Subscribers              Subscription Information

MyGroPonics

My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics.  It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight).  Sound interesting?  It's just $10 bucks here...

 

       

 

Maxa-Cookie Manager

No, when you tell your browser to 'empty your cookies' of web sites you've visited, it probably won't get them all.  Why?  Because there is a whole class of 'browser-independent' cookies that will gobble up space on your hard drive, but more important is they will sneak out information about you without you being aware of it.    Ever week I get emails like this one:

"Thanks again for the Maxa Tools recommendation, I never knew how much additional garbage gets attached every time I browse. "

Test drive it free by downloading it.  To upgrade to full functionality will be $35 bucks.  Is your privacy worth it?

www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe

Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies.  Bonus:  You computer may run faster.  I've taken 1,000  34,759 cookies off my machine now.  It's just amazing.

 

Attn: Mac Drivers:  MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far.  Given Jens and the other engineers time...

 

Feeling Thorny?

Want to be a thorn in the side of the Old World Order?  Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh?  Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course....

 

"Live on $10,000" Updated

I've told you in the past to order my ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less..." with the rationale that  "We're all going to live it shortly, anyway."  Don't know as you have looked lately, but the unemployment rate is up more than 3% since I wrote the first edition of that book and underpasses have never been more homely.  Worth ordering?  Just visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click this little whizzie...

 

 

 

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left...  Click here for the index and details.

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 Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

 

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Friday August 21, 2009

Big 'Un To Fail

I see where CNN is carrying the story that "Texas bank hit by California dreaming Although the failure of Austin-based Guaranty Bank looms, its problems reflect the housing bubble in the Golden State rather than issues at home."  Now that it's after hours, I expect this and other banks will be announced.  Oh, did I mention ebank was also shotgun wedded today?

 

And yes, that's why in my tip off earlier today (11:03 CDT) I told you... "I Guaranty this will be interesting".  A failure in the $13.5 billion range of assets tends to make me pay attention.

 

Wanna bet that there are 500-1,000 more banks on the edge of failure?

 

Oh...and that bank failures by month chart next to the CNN story?  Look at branches by month,  Much different picture.  More like just gathering steam.

 

Special Update:

Bank Failure Looming?

I've heard from a pretty reliable source that a major regional bank with more than 100 locations is under FDIC control control as of this hour and they will likely be announced by FDIC after the market close today.  Not certain and not verified, but I Guaranty this will be interesting.  Are there more?  Click the FDIC site later on today....after the close.

 

Meantime, my friend Robin Landry says he's got a bearish divergence sell signal...not that we might get get a short nominal high increase from here, but our 38.2% Fibonacci bounce is done, and

 a double stochastic sell...and the list goes on.

 

Damn, I should have moved money around to play the short side next week. Oh well...

 

Musical Chairs and Bank Roulette

Since the price of gold is up this morning (early at least) and since the price of gold lately has been a fair (better than chance) indicator for how the Dow will end for the day, I'm jumping to the conclusion that when the market wraps up trading this afternoon, we will actually show a small Dow gain for the week.  Remember last week closed at 9,321.40 on the Dow, so just holding even scores a win.

 

I have this twitchy feeling that after the market closes today, we could have another Colonial-sized bank failure - either that or a terrorist problem over the weekend - something that would give us some sense of the flavor of events to unravel as the fall arrives. 

 

I don't expect you to be clicking on the FDIC's complete list of failed banks, here BTW, nor would I expect you to maniacally add up the total number of bank branches closed since IndyMac last year (3,433 and counting) like I do. 

 

Still, the aware observer could be looking at FDIC and wondering "How long can they keep up this pace?" 

 

A story this week from Bloomberg notes that "FDIC may add to special fees as mounting failures drain reserve."  But, suppose for a minute that the banks which seem to be surviving don't have the dough to ante up any more into FDIC's pot - then what?

 

Well, we can see that in the AP headline that "FDIC may ease private equity buys of failed banks."  Vulture capitalists as Plan B?  Great, just frigging great.

 

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Why anyone would buy a bank during these difficult times is beyond me; although I suppose there might be some value for an investment outfit that's been wildly successful elsewhere and wants to buy a bunch of tax-loss carryforwards, or something on that order.

 

The trick, as always, is timing.

 

Thursday's report on Leading Economic Indicators, released by The Conference Board seems to indicate that all the happy talk may pay off:

 

 

Leading indicators being up 3% from January through July would seem like a good thing.  But how real is it?  Could it be just a hint that inside of six months we will have inflation hitting us hard?

 

I'm not willing to throw any money down on the table one way or t'other yet.  Call me chicken if you will, but my current allocation remains part inflation hedging metals and part deflation hedging treasuries.

 

Drop by tomorrow morning for a report on whether FDIC arranges more shotgun marriages tomorrow morning.  But for now, sure looks like either Russian Roulette or....wait....do you hear any music?  I'll take this chair, you take that one and we'll watch where the Fed meeting attendees in Jackson Hole  The FDIC Q2 report is due out next Tuesday...and it probably won't bolster green shoots talk.

 

The BIGGEST financial story, seems to me, that no one is talking about is the new flurry of Federal Reserve with bank holding companies.  Like this one with WGNB, a bank holding company in Georgia,  or Leawood Bancshares of Kansas, or Rogers Bancshares of Arkansas, or Coastal Community Investments of Florida.

 

Withdrawal Symptoms

Ben Bernanke is scheduled to give a speech this morning up in Jackson Hole.  An AP article explains "Bernanke's tough task: Withdrawing emergency aid."

 

I'm not expecting him to say much of anything.  But it might be worth a click-by of the Fed website later on this morning just to see if he has pom-poms to go with that cheerleading outfit of his...

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Ben's in a difficult position following Alan Greenspan who decried 'irrational exuberance' while fanning the flames of housing debt creation at a breakneck speed.

 

Exit Strategy

"So...." you're wondering to yourself, "Wonder how come UBS (United Bank of Switzerland) is being so forthcoming with the U.S. tax-evasion investigation?"

 

Oh, you didn't catch where the gnomes in the Swiss government have sold somewhere north of 8% in UBS to  "institutional investors"?

 

Here's how this plays - I think:  Swiss government discloses tax avoiders and offloads a big chunk of its position in UBS (which I expect will be losing depositors faster than they are reeling 'em in, now thanks to the handover of account holder info, right?) and I expect that the term 'institutional investors' simply means shoveling their former shares into things like American mutual fund holdings. 

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Californicated:  Speaking of which, Don't even get me started on CalPERS suing the state of California over being required to furlough staff, effectively saying "We're special'.  How many MBA's does it take to lose 23% in the latest fiscal year?  I mean really...who's job oughta be saved for that kinda performance?  Especially when our average reader who paid attention to our "Flee paper assets!" advice actually made money by going to treasuries and gold?  Golly, I'm just floored.    

 

In fairness: the CalPERS fiscal year ended on June 30th.  If they had bought the S&P 500 in 2008, they would have bought in at 1,280.00  (The June '08 close).  Now, the July 08 close was 919.32 so just buying the S&P would have lost 28% now the 23% CalPERS reports.  On the other hand, I'd sure be reading the notes to the financial statement to see if all assets are marked to market or whether they are otherwise valued...

 

CalPERS supporters could also argue that's only because CalPERS is so BIG.  But wait!  Two thoughts:  If they were smarter than bigger, why didn't they buy a few countries with decent resources bases - like Bolivia which has natural gas and lithium deposits?  Or, if they have put everything in the NASDAQ Composite, they would have lost only 20%....But I digress...this is no time for really BIG strategic plans...but I was just wondering if CalPERS bought some of that UBS placement? 

 

Really want to reduce staff?  Give everyone authority to move the decimal point to the right in their deals.  Is management east, or what?

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What we don't know is this:  "Where are the Swissies putting their dough?  That's where I'd want to be playing - not where they have been..."  Don't hold your breath for the answer to that one.

 

Summer of Hell

"Health Care Town Hall Highlights" is a video montage by ABC News which summarizes the growing street level outrage with congress which isn't listening to the Will of the People - something they gave up long before proposed healthcare reform, and even before the sell-out to the banksters and that almost forgotten purchase of an insurance company.

 

Deathflation

I can't help but come up with an economic-sounding name for the latest phenomena:  Demand is rising for publicly funded burials.

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Given some of the data in the long-range data out of www.halfpasthuman.com, the growth industry to be in over the next 5-years or so oughta be picking up and disposing of dead people. Out of courtesy, I won't repeat the "Our business is always picking up" or "This is a business people are dying to get into..."  How about something like there's stiff competition?

 

Bill's Due

As I said earlier this week, I'll have to park the Gulfstream this weekend and skip our plans for golf and dinner in Bermuda.  Oh damn.

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The only gulfstream I can afford is the one that used to meander north at about one knot, or so.

 

Distracting Headlines Department

The headline (and the photos) about the "International manhunt for US model's suspected killer" seem almost like what?  A distraction from the main thrust of our day-to-day problems. 

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Stories like the odd mass shootings here and there, there are just stories that come along everyone once in a while which are just 'emotionally hot' yet which when considered are not personally actionable.  More on this is the Coping section below.

 

But astrologer Robert Hitt has this kind of story nailed with his framework that suggests that it's an intentional 'bleeding off of emotional energy' - energy that left untapped might move markets and other events in a way inconvenient to whoever...

 

No Winner

With the two presidential wannabe's in Poppystan both claiming victory, the only sure non-winner is the US taxpayer...we effectively end up paying for this.  Say, is that a purple finger you're holding up?

 

Book Burning Next

The report out of India that "Jaswant's book should be banned all over India: BJP" makes as much sense as banning some of the self-aggrandizing books politicos in this country have written.  Maybe it's because I started reading Time Magazine when I was 8 on a regular basis, but isn't anyone besides me a little concerned that banning books is about the most effective guerilla marketing tactic you can come up with?  In other words, 'scarcity builds demand' works on books just like it does on pre-revolution Cuban cigars, eh?  Except'n maybe the Cubano would be more enjoyable at Fahrenheit 451 and above...

 

Oh Fluey

Are you as confounded by the Tamiflu debate as I am?  Britain seems to be pushing the stuff for people who come down with hysteria flu.  Now the WHO says no, if you're healthy, don't take it... go figure.  Know how much diesel I could'a bought with that $200?

 

'Disappeared' Meme Redux

Not only have the linguistics been fulfilled on the royalty/yacht/ship missing at sea, but it's like the reports just won't quit.  Latest:  Scores of migrants perish at sea between Libya and Italy.

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Speaking of our mysteries at sea file, the story that "Russia: No smuggled weapons found upon freighter Arctic Sea" isn't exactly reassuring.  There are time gaps long enough to have darned near built a new ship involved in this one - wonder what the hijacking suspects really know?  A lot can happen when you're literally 'off the radar' for three weeks...

 

Clunk't

Cash for clunkers is shutting down Monday after $3-billion of taxpayer cash burned, 457,000 mostly paid-for cars exchanged for more consumer debt (sheesh!).

 

Couple of guys I know in the used car biz say this leave them in a lurch trying to find used car product.  Or, as I look at it:  What a marvelous way to make cheap transportation unaffordable, huh?  We are truly led by geniuses.

 

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Coping: The Value of 'Information'

My conversation with Catherine Austin Fitts ( www.solari.com ) last night reminded me of something I've been meaning to mention for a couple of weeks now:  The value of any 'news' or 'research service', regardless of how much you pay for it (and how many pages long it might be) really boils down to answering the question "Is the information actionable?

 

Every so often, I get an email from a potential subscriber who asks (in so many words) "I subscribe to newsletters X, Y, and Z so why should I get Peoplenomics - or even read your free site?"

 

Three reasons come to mind:  First, I am not writing Peoplenomics (or this site) like I get paid by the word.  Most weekends, Peoplenomics is only 6-pages - maybe 12 now and then - but it's designed to be a good read - not a long read.  Your time  is valuable and so is mine (at least that's what I tell clients, LOL.  Here and in Peoplenomics, brief & meaty is my goal (save the occasional wandering discussion like yesterday's 'Coping' section.

 

Secondly, Peoplenomics doesn't (usually) get off into economic Formula Land.  Yeah, I think Tobin's Q is a nice theory and all, but that isn't something that can make the trip to Wal-Mart or Safeway any less painful.  So the information and writings tend toward direct action. 

 

Thirdly, although I've read a lot of persuasive data on the net that suggests that we will have an inflationary breakout and hyperinflation is the bogeyman we have to fear.  Yet, nearly as worrisome is the concept that falling prices will win in the end and the purchasing power of 'cash dollars held' (or their equivalents) will triumph.

 

Even if you don't subscribe, if you've got 31¢ worth of brains you should have figured that my investment position in my personal holdings is about 1/3rd each: Treasuries, precious metals, and long-term survival goods.  You can have all the inflation-fighting gold in the world, or all the deflation hedging Treasuries in the world, yet once unemployed I'm betting I will be able to trade you (barter) almost anything you have that I want for some 'critter comfort' items.  Cigarettes, toilet paper, vitamins, or maybe a small flask of rum.  That's my present focus right there: Building out my 'barter box'. 

 

Kindling the Kindred

Looks like the daily content being available for Kindle users in the .MOBI format works fine (available here).  Only change is I scrunched up the font size at the top of the page because it wasn't displaying right on the Amazon boxes.  Better today?

 

Web Rankings Explained

A couple of people from the UK and Australia have written in explaining why more people (per capita) read UrbanSurvival in South Korea than England.  leading theory is that people in the UK have been more effectively hypnotized.

 

Seems about right:  Anyone who would bow down and stand of soap boxes has only a partial grasp of what freedom means and doesn't understand the absurdity of claiming to 'own dirt'.  Oh well...

 

Not Dopes

Mexico has decriminalized possession of small amounts of weed, coke, meth, acid, and smack.  Not legalizing but decriminalizing. 

 

So, if you are planning to book a vacation to Mexico, here's the 'need to know' part of the article:

"The maximum amount of marijuana for "personal use" under the new law is 5 grams — the equivalent of about four joints. The limit is a half gram for cocaine, the equivalent of about 4 "lines." For other drugs, the limits are 50 milligrams of heroin, 40 milligrams for methamphetamine and 0.015 milligrams for LSD. "

The reason Mexico can do this?  I expect it's because they don't have a big booze lobby handing out votes and favors...either that or they are out of prison space.  Or both.  Go ahead: Bet me this won't ramp up tourista bucks from the prohibition states...

 

Come to think of it, where my travel agent's number?  I'm sick of healthcare and swine flu stories this week.

 

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Thursday August 20, 2009

Reader Note - New Science Experiment:  UrbanSurvival's Daily Report for Kindle is available as a MOBI file here.  The URL will be www.urbansurvival.com/Kindle/week.mobi  if you need it.  This is an experiment - tell everyone you know with a Kindle reader and let me know if it's worth it... george@ure.net.  It will generally be posted about 8:15 AM Central, as time permits.  Kindles are wireless reading devices, Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device (Latest Generation)  or the larger screen: Kindle DX: Amazon's 9.7" Wireless Reading Device (Latest Generation)

 

How Long Do We Have?

A report from the Centers for Disease Control says:

"U.S. life expectancy reached nearly 78 years (77.9), and the age-adjusted death rate dropped to 760.3 deaths per 100,000 population, both records, according to the latest mortality statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The report, “Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2007,” was issued today by CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. The data are based on nearly 90 percent of death certificates in the United States.

The 2007 increase in life expectancy – up from 77.7 in 2006 -- represents a continuation of a trend. Over a decade, life expectancy has increased 1.4 years from 76.5 years in 1997 to 77.9 in 2007. "

Apparently, the CDC press release writers need a refreshed course what I call UrbanSurvival Statistical Realities.  When they write in the headline "Death Rates Reach New Low" I didn't see it mentioned that it's still 100%.

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Here's why watching the life expectancy numbers like a hawk is so important:  The whole complex socioeconomic fabric works smoothly without tearing only so long as there is turnover in jobs and so long as saving for retirement makes sense.  The demographic problem we have globally is that long life expectancies are brutal on economies.

 

Why?  First, the oldsters will be selling off assets to pay for their cost of living and that will drive down costs of everything.  Supply will be high of things like housing, stocks, and what have you.  Census figures (2008) show that 25.1% of the population is over 55 - and that number is growing quickly as baby boomers roll into the retirement eligibility range.

 

What's more, because of the crappy economy, older folks are working longer and that blocks young people from moving up the food chain...so their wages are low and you begin to get a vicious cycle to the downside.

 

Like you hadn't noticed?

 

I don't think this kind of story gets the attention it deserves...but when it comes to supply, demand, and the general level of prices, this is a big driver and something to keep focused on if you're trying to beat the herd, whether you're playing with paper or real assets.

 

Astroturf in Trouble Next?

The Fox headline that "Health Insurers Fear Probe By House Dems Is Reprisal for Opposing Part of Obama's Plan" may be only the tip of the iceberg. 

 

I'm hoping that someone in an investigation of the healthcare debate will get into the 'Astroturf" aspect of it.  You do know that 'Astroturf' is D.C. slang for 'fake grassroots organizations which  are cobbled together using free flowing cash and gullible 'activists' which swallow 'death panel' and get sucked into supporting no public option?

 

No sleight of the football playing surface intended.

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The first peek at the futures this morning indicated the market may open to the upside. But that was only until unexpectedly high jobs claims were reported.  Gold turned down instantly and I expect the Dow to follow it down.

 

Courting Disaster

Philly is in deep enough financial trouble now that their court system is facing a virtual shutdown.

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Back-fit the pieces here and I have to wonder how long before the city stops handing out parking tickets which become sort of pointless if there's no court system to back up tickets with bench warrants when you get a couple of bushels of 'em.

 

Collapse occurs when a bunch of long-chain molecules of complex social organization break apart.  The city still makes a good sandwich, though.  When that falls apart, let me know?  Be a good time to get outta town.

 

"Here, Hold This Bag" Department

New car dealers in New York are pulling out of the government's cash for clunkers deal citing deals in getting their dough.  Gee, where have I heard that one before?  Wonder if IRS will show any mercy on Q3 filings here in less than a month?  Hahaha!  Oh, can I come up with the outlandish and the improbable, or what?

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Not that IRS has to worry about revenue in Q3, however.  Word that IRS is getting the name of 4,450 wealthy Americans stashing dough in secret accounts oughta result in a whole flood of 'amended returns'.  "Oh dang me.  Forgot about that tax-free $10-million I had in where was it...Oh THAT Swiss account."

 

New TV series title ideas:  Lô Zurn Notice or Lifestyle of Zurich Used-to-Be's..

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You know, this might make buying congress waaaay more affordable for us regular folk, though...

 

HOW Tough is the Housing Disaster?

Jim Kunstler's fine site reports a "holy sh*t moment for the US Economy: National Asso of Homebuilders shutting down..."  Haven't seen it on their site, but if you call their offices  Aug 24-28 might be thinly staffed....let it ring a while.

 

Blow in the Maritimes

Eastern Canada is getting a hurricane?  Cat three when I looked this morning.

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Central Park in the Big Apple lost 100+ trees to weather yesterday.  And the Midwest got a few tornados and thunderstorms yesterday, too.

 

Readings: Weather Disasters To Come

Interesting letter on Tom Bearden's site from February of this year about how zero point energy can be used to destroy America via weather modification.  Also good backgrounder on how electrical reengineering was done to ensure that 'zero-point' became 'impossible' to the ruling paradigm, except for the powers that be...the royals and the...oh go read it.  Think food war and famine, eh?

 

Passings:  Don Hewitt

Although I only talked to him once or twice of times back in my early 1970's news chasing days, Don Hewitt of CBS was an icon even then.  Building the legendary '60 Minutes' - impeccable research and attention to detail.   Unlike other reporters that were suck-ups at the time and who would pander to whatever way the wind was being blown, Hewitt was the read deal.  Damn serious loss to the industry....or what's left of it in the ongoing corpgov takedown of serious investigative mainstream media.

 

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Coping:  The Answer Man Is Back

I had a compulsion to do a fair bit of writing on Wednesday afternoon - and although the effort would have been better directed at something which would have a salutary effect on my checking account, I sat down and let 'er rip because there's a ton of stuff that I haven't mentioned in the "Coping Section" that is worth discussing.

---

Time once again to put on my hat as "The Answer Man" and field a wide range of reader inquiries:

"I read your page as often as I get a chance to so I may have missed some statements but where were you coming from on your data suggesting mass depopulation of humans in the next five years or so?"

I wasn't coming from anywhere, or going anywhere.  I was here the whole time.  Just relating that in the data that Cliff's working on there this 1.25 billion number when one looks out a ways in the data (but inside five years) and since it's related to GlobalPop (entity in modelspace) its not clear whether that's the number of people who die (in whatever's coming) or whether that's the number that are left in the wake of whatever's coming.

 

Next email from a tipster?

"The SEC and FINRA are putting great pressure on brokerage firms to limit leveraged SHORT ETFs. This article only tells part of the story. About a week ago FINRA sent out a notice about short ETFs and leveraged short ETFs. They have said little behind the scenes about the long ETFs. This is clearly an attempt to limit the little guy. After all the risk in any ETF, regardless of structure, is the loss of the initial investment. They are not talking about limiting actual short selling (unlimited loss potential) and/or the use of margin (traditional leverage). This is just another attempt to artificially limit the market's moves to the downside. If your interested, I'll send you a PDF of the note FINRA sent out.

I think they know something is coming.

Yes...please send the FINRA, although this note surprises you?  You need more coffee...no, really.  A LOT more.

About that Hal Turner/FBI paid him story yesterday:

"It appears that Turner,etal were quite successful with this one. One thing it does prove, I suppose, is that the FBI has a "black ops" budget... just like the CIA. And why not ? They've got all that unreportable $$$ to spend. But hopefully theirs is restricted to this sort of thing, while the other one is not.

But that leads me to another question, and one that's supposed to be happening in your back yard. If the "amero" - supposedly the new money for the new US-Mexico-Canada nation, is phoney, what about the new highway that's also "supposed" to hook up Mexico-US-Canada for the new "nation" ? Is that a phoney as well, or is the "amero" the fake - and the front - and the highway real ? It would be a great sorta' coverup for the "talking heads" to assure their non-thinking folks that the highway is just as phoney as the "amero", so don't worry about it. After all, if it were real, wouldn't we be the first to yada, yada, yada. Not if they wanted to keep their jobs.

Truth In Labeling Alert!

"I am an avid quilter, a catalog I recently received boosted that their cotton is grown in the US and woven/printed in "North America" - I did have to say humm about that one -- is this part of the world now just known as "North America"!!

NO!  Tell me that has been slipped to us also!!  Don't they have to write printed in Mexico or printed in Canada anymore???

---

Like the old joke used to go:

"Where you from?"

"South America"

"Which part?"

"South Texas..."

Rimshot (audience groans...)

 

Next - and this is my EMAIL OF THE WEEK - file under Read It and Weep:

"Hey George –

If you were a proud member of the global elite and you were concerned about resource depletion on the planet, what would you do to correct this problem? Go to the source – mostly the US and also western Europe, to some degree. Figure out some way to make them use less resources – but because no one will cut back voluntarily you have to force the issue, maybe by shrinking the middle class.

Make them poor, destroy their wealth, then they’ll buy less and drive less, etc. How do you do that? Go after their savings, especially 401-ks, housing values, and jobs.

1 - Get people in debt over their heads with house prices (remember the mantra “real estate always goes up?”)

2 - Drive the stock market down for years and years (after you’ve convinced them the stock market always goes up.)

3 – Open the borders to cheap labor to help drive down average wages.

4 – Send good jobs overseas in the name of “Free Trade.”

Bring on the next Great Depression – very few have any savings left to ride out a tough economy, so they lose their homes when they lose their jobs and Presto! You have middle class people living on the streets or in homeless tent cities. Whaddaya think? (FDR said when it comes to power/politics there are no coincidences.)

This  gets five gold stars for "Insightful (never inciting around here, eh?) email of the week.  Came from a guy in the banking sector who qualifies as very, very bright.

It answers almost everything.

Radio Interview

On with Catherine Austin Fitts this evening...check www.solari.com for the details.  Think it's on at 9 PM Eastern 8 Central and when the big hand is straight up and the little hand is straight down if you're in California.

 

Ratings

Internet rating statistics have always stumped me; not that they are incomprehensible (although often they are), but really what I have a hard time wrapping me head around is why traffic to UrbanSurvival would be higher from some countries than others.  Here's a list (current as of this morning) from www.Alexa.com:

 

Back Woods Wisdom

Here's a good one:

"The best precautions to take while traveling in bear country are to carry pepper spray to repel the animal and attach a small bell somewhere on your person such that when you are moving the bell will ring. This will keep you from walking up on a bear by surprise and allow it to hear you from a distance and move off.

 

Since black bears and grizzlies have such different aggression levels it's also useful to know what kind of bears are in the area you are traveling through. This can best be ascertained by observing any bear scat you may come across. Black bear scat usually consists of seed hulls, vegetable matter, and rodent fur, while grizzly poop is usually full of little bells and smells like pepper. Sometimes .30 and .38 rounds, too."

Around the Ranch: Lunching Out, Social Efficiency

Ramblings: One of the nice things about living 'out in the country' is that there are a number of local social events that take place during the year - some monthly - where you can meet almost all of your neighbors.  I'm not exactly a recluse, well, maybe a bit, but I prefer group socializing to tow-on-two kind of events with a few exceptions because 1) it can be scheduled far ahead of time,   2) because it is often purpose-directed and 3) it's just a lot more efficient than spending a half-hour here or there talking to this person or that.

 

This concept of 'social efficiency' may be new to you,  but when I've been to social/SOC [self-organizing collective] events in the past (Native American potlatches, just to use a good example, or ham radio club meetings) I find that there's a wonderful dynamic in the tribal/SOC sense since events are usually a fine mix of culture, tall tales, good food, meeting & greeting, and whathaveyou on a single topic.  Type 'A" socializing, for sure.

 

We haven't spent too much time here doing 'neighboring' except with a couple of adjoining property owners; not because we wouldn't like to, but it's just so inefficient. 

 

Not to harp on this, but when I'm working around the ranch, going off-property invariably means:

a)  Quitting what I'm doing - I never seem to time the completion of a project with a social event (10-minutes clean-up and restart time here).

b)  Then there's the mandatory shower & change of clothes.  I've either been sitting in front of a computer for 10-hours and need to be hosed off/sanitized, or I'm been outside working so in addition to being sanitized, a good round of fumigating is also called for. I hate rushing a shower:  so there goes another 5-minutes for cleaning.

c)  Then you have to drive to the neighbors because of time constraints.  Just to walk from my house down to the neighbor around the next corner is over a quarter mile, which means a five to seven minute walk, even at a military pace.  Walking to the local fire hall of the volunteer fire department is a 3.5 mile hike...and in hundred degree humid weather, the shower beforehand would be pointless.  Let's call it 10 minutes for travel.

d)  Now we have wait time.  Guests are invariably dispunctional. This is a no-no in George Land.  It's a cross between dysfunctional and nonpunctual.  Or, as I explain when I'm rushing Elaine to here or there, dispunctional is the difference between Central Time and Elaine Standard Time.  I've seen the time warp as big as 45-minutes, especially when my best efforts at pseudo-urgency have been suspised and then ignored  Let's call it 10-minutes of wait time.

e)  Then there's socializing time.  If you could contain socializing time to the actual time guests are on hand, that would be one thing.  But suppose someone is coming over for a branchwater or two.  She-who-must-be-obeyed has a long checklist of items before company.  Got ice?  Got crackers & cheese or nibbles?  Dips?  Veggies? How about some fresh fruit...Do we have enough ice?  Pop or coffee if that's the call from the guests?  Should I make coffee?  Both bathrooms freshly Windexed?...Do we have ice?  And so on...  Actual socializing:  1-hour if branch waters and nibbles, 3-4-hours if dinner is included. I start dropping hints at 90-minutes in either case.   90-minutes...no make it two hours, depending on whether I get kicked under the table for dropping none-too-subtle hints..

f)  Then you have clean-up.  If it's just grown-ups, everything goes in the dishwasher and the bathrooms get Windexed again and the house is back to 'original' condition in less than 20-minutes.  Elaine has so far resisted my prompting to use paper plates for guests.  Didn't think much of the styrofoam cups idea, either.  I usually get something like "Have you no class?"  Well, er....what are we doing here:  efficiency or high tea?  If kids have been included then you've got another 90-minutes:  Kids will invariably break something and neglect telling anyone about it, until you discover it (15-40 minutes after the guests are gone).  Then an hour trip into town and back to get the replacement.

g)  Things are almost back to normal by this point; all that follows are the follow-up phone calls, getting back into work clothes, and figuring out where everything was when socializing intruded.

Let's talk Social Efficiency:  Sat we're at 2-hours and 55-minutes for a visit with only one  set of neighbors.  Multiply that times 12 families (or however many folks are around) and what do you have?  A lot work week at the expense of your personal agenda.

 

Quality of Life aside, local community social gatherings are a much better tactic time-wise, and far more efficient which is my first point this morning.

---

Turns out many of the people in this area of Texas show up for at a local  church on the third Wednesday of each month.  Everyone brings along a little something - home baked pies and desserts in particular.  Everyone shows up at 11:15, food's gone and people are pretty much 'wheels up' 1-hour and 15-minutes later.  Perfect.

 

We were honored with an invited to this month's local social luncheon - and it was great.  Met half a dozen or more folks we know at least in passing and twice that that we'd only heard rumors about - but hadn't gotten around to meeting yet.  Can't say for sure if such things happen in the city, but in 10-years of living in a suburban  'development' I didn't know hardly anyone, save the two neighbors I'd met from PTA  and a couple of soccer parents.  About the only common interest was having the best putting-green-like front yard, which was part of social 'status' in our development.  Total waste of effort, but that's another rant for another day.  You can't eat grass...or at least that kind.

---

This all started off going somewhere, but I got a bit sidetracked on the efficiency of social gatherings, and for that I apologize, barely.  The real point was the Texas Tall Tale of Spiders.

 

I've told you how spiders are especially mean and nasty down this way?  I mean beyond the ones that hold office over in Austin or down in Palestine, or that poster-boy for the bankers we sent to Washington in error, or the odd one that's a brown recluse which you really, really don't want biting you? 

 

There's a particularly large yellow and black garden spider down here that we've had a few of around the house which is about 4-5 inches across its legs.  These guys build webs.  And how strong are their webs?

 

The story begins: the Master Gardener's husband, who had invited us, recently picked not one, but two little hummingbirds out of one of these gigantic (as in Hollywood horror film) spider's webs.  Not that hummingbirds are big, mind you, their body is only about as big as your thumb.  But, so strong is the web, says Ms Master Gardener, that after rescuing one that had gotten caught in the web, her understudy/husband saw another hummingbird sized cocoon and it still had a heartbeat.

 

Upon opening - and very carefully unwrapping the spider silk (which was more like Kevlar)  from around it - the second bird too flew away.

----

Second story:  A little later on in lunch, we met the fellow who not only founded the local volunteer fire department, but he told us about how he's gotten 65-bushels of peaches to sell, not to mention hundreds of others just given away, from his little two-acre (40-trees) peach orchard.  At $30 a bushel, his 40-peach trees which he put in when he was about my age, are providing him with a little bit of income and plenty to do. More than paid taxes on the property.

 

By the time he fertilizes, cuts off sucker shoots in the spring, hit's the trees with dormant oil spray, mulches around them, and so forth, he figures it's enough to do. He's 80, although he doesn't look a day over 79.  Had to put up a chain link fence around the orchard this year to keep two and four legged critters out, but it's working; his property is on a fairly busy road.  Maybe 100 cars a day.

 

The important part:  He is making off the two acres three or four times more than he paid for the land when the trees were planted.  Something worth keeping in mind:  When you buy property, plant trees the moment you get possession. Time will run faster from there on out.

----

Somehow, we got invited to the next one of these luncheons, probably more on Elaine's charm & good looks than mine.  My answers to social-like questions probably betrayed my odd view of the world, but we were invited back, regardless.

 

When someone asked "When did ya'll get here?"  I answered "Oh, about 10-minutes ago in that silver pick-up out there..."    Turns out they were asking how many months or years had we been here.  How the hell was I supposed to know?

 

Company was great, the food good, and the desserts? OMG, just amazing....

---

Third chapter:  This particular gathering of cordial folks (Methodists) had baked up what they called "Birthday cookies" as part of the dessert choices.  I almost got up and yelled at everyone to "Stop eating those Birthday Cookies!!!" 

 

"Why? What a rude thing...." you're thinking. 

 

Truth is I believe eating eating birthday cookies ages people.  Obviously, I'm going to have to watch these Methodists and the local interlopers for several years now, to see if my theory about birthday cookies holds true...

---

It reminds me to pass on the importance of naming that which you put in your mouth. 

 

Could it be that people who are eating vegetarian and proudly call their grub "health food" are really unawares doing ongoing low-level programming of their subconscious to create a reality that is healthy?  Or is that obvious; how could it be anything else?  We all dance with Universe, non?  And in the beginning there was the word.

---

Best extreme example I can think of right now that illustrates this is the Chinese.

 

They haven't been eating "fortune cookies" forever, you know.  Study, if you will, what has happened since they started calling them fortune cookies:  They've damn near become the global  sole source for Wal-Mart and every other Big Box store in America, save a few veggies from down south of the Border....when we used to have one.

 

Yeah, sure, go ahead and argue that fortune cookies are Japanese but again my case is made - They Are what they Eat:  Who just drove Detroit into the ground?  Honda, Nisfiniti, and Toylexus, right?  And they eat fortune cookies, too.  Since 1918 to pull a date out. 

 

It's a damn conspiracy I tell you!  If someone offers you a 'birthday cookie' - think through your answer very carefully.  Food cooked with an angry hand is poison, I've heard.  Happy kitchens produce healthy food.

 

Remember to be careful what you call  that which you eat.  There's probably a lot more to the sub vocal programming link to health than modern pharmaceutical industrialists would ever freely admit.  At least without a subpoena.   Remind me to offer them all birthday cookies.

 

---

Wednesday August 19, 2009

Drop Your What Again Today?

Latest thinking on the markets is that the stock futures point to a lower Wall Street Open , and the drop in gold is confirming that, although it really shouldn't be that way.  Once upon a time (back in the days when humans did the trading) Gold going up was an indication of markets going down.  And gold going down meant the Dow would likely go up.  Not any more, though:  They have been moving in similar directions here of late for economic reasons that make my head hurt.

---

Apparently, I'm not as smart as that Buffett fellow up in Omaha... when Warren Buffett says the Federal Debt poses a risk to the economy, it makes headlines.  When I say it - as I have for a dozen years, or so - no headlines, no TV crews...nothing.  Not even a web cam interview request.  It'd be a pisser except that I have real work to do anyway.

---

Before I get to the farmerly things around here though, please pay close attention to the headline that a 'Chicken Underground emerges in Indiana."  Most city dwellers don't realize it, but the hard cost of raising chickens is about zip.  They will eat most anything in the way of table scraps and leftovers.  However, unlike your family dog which leaves little, er...trinkets to be picked up after you feed them, chickens also leave a lot of eggs around, too.

---

I don't know how many times I have pointed out to you how there is a huge 'back to the farm' trend going on in America - as people try to reclaim some small measure of control over their food supplies, but if you want to see more evidence, just look at how John "Deer's net tops estimates on farm machinery demand." 

---

Hope that the 'bottom is in' springs eternal in headlines.  If you haven't read as much about the first Depression as I have, you won't likely appreciate that during most of the first half of the Great Depression one of the most common sayings promoted by politicians and other lowlife was "Good times are just ahead..."

 

We're not saying anything so stupid today.  We don't need to.  Instead we read headlines like "U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 5.6% last week."

 

The two statistical questions I don't have time to follow up on are as follows:  1)  Are existing mortgage applications that we submitted some number of months back counted in this?  I mean, is it possible that the number of mortgage applications could swell because they are just piling up on the bankster's desk?  And then 2) How many people are having to apply to 13-dozen banks in order to find one willing to make a loan these days? Hmmmm...How's factor figured?

 

You can take that 'Good times is just ahead" crap and shove it.....

---

One reason that we're not at the bottom of the deflation cycle is that all the money-printing hasn't taken hold globally yet.  That's really was the so-called G-8 talk about - coordination of hyping and printing.  Evidence:  German Producer prices post record fall. 

 

This week's producer price index here in the US - with finished goods down 0.9% in July (which pencils out to deflation just north of 11% annualized, goes much to the same concept.

 

But, what's even more important is not just that deflation is still hanging on, but if the money supply is being increased at a rate of just under 17% (using Trader Bart's recreation of the M-3 which the Fed decided wasn't worth tracking a couple of years back, since they not only knew what was coming, but had a big hand in creating it) we might be able to argue that True Deflation is presently running close to 28%.

 

Let me explain, in case you missed that:  If you had 11% true deflation, and money was not gerrymandered, you'd see 11 percent deflation.  On the other hand, if you print up 11% more money, then presto:  standard of living drops 'mysteriously' despite there being no inflation or deflation in the 'offishul' numbers.  You with me?

 

So if printing is up 17% on the money side, and the annualized current report rate of deflation (finished producer prices annualized) is still down 11%, that means true deflation is still in control, which is enough to scare the hell out of the central banksters.

---

But that's OK, since the dealings of the Treasury and the Fed are allowing banks to do a little money laundering on their balance sheets...you can rest assured: "Good times are just ahead."

 

It's just they don't mention the 10-year length of deflationary depressions, which the current regimen ought to be able to stretch out to 15-20 years.  And then both parties will have had people in office and the confusion will reign supreme.

 

Kinda like it is now.

 

So is what's left of your 401(k) likely to drop today?  Duh.

 

Cursed By My Memory

The passing of commentator Robert Novak is interesting to watch:  On the one hand there are headlines like "Bob Novak, a Giant of Journalism".  Am I the only one who remembers the other side of his career?  "Novak: 'I don't think I hurt Valerie Plame' and I would out her again because the Left 'tried to ruin me'.

 

Speak no ill of the dead?  Or another example of how the right-left polarization of Americans takes bizarre twists?  Yes, more coffee please.

 

Withdrawal Pains

Say, not to point out the obvious here, but doesn't the headline "Series of blasts kills 75, wounds 300 in Baghdad" really underscore that the US withdrawal got underway in earnest once the oil production deals were signed? 

 

Why, I must be a nutjob to think that purple fingers were only important until the oil ink was dry, huh?

 

Movies to See

Think there's a PowersThatBe?  Might want to watch for Oliver Stone's planned flick "Secret History of America."

 

Not that our "other history" isn't there for the seeing of it, it's just that most people would much rather deny its existence because to do so allows the illusion that all's well (and getting better) to persist in the fact of environmental, economic, and moral degradation. 

 

And hey!  If you don't feel good yet, you must be depressed.  Yah really oughta get on some pills, you know it?

 

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Coping: With The Dangerous Outback

OK, I admit it:  I have friends who are on both sides of the Second Amendment debate. On the one side I have a friend who lets me know every time someone shows up at an anti-Obama administration rally wearing a sidearm. On the other, I have friends who ask me what part of "shall not be infringed" is not absolutely and unequivocally clear.

 

For my own part, I try to keep more or less an open mind on such matters, but every so often one of my friends will send along a note like this one: "Another reason to carry a pistol..." and attach a link to a story like "Coroner: Wild dogs killed Ga. woman, then husband" about how a pack of wild dogs in Georgia apparently attacked an elderly couple and killed both.

---

Most folks in the gun debate, at least the ones I've gotten to know, live in the city where there's a good dog catcher and a 'humane' society.  But seems that the farther out in the country a person lives, the more respect they'll have for nature's predators and the more inclined they will be to have some kind of self-defense tool.  Whether it's a can of Bear Spray (a sort of pepper spray on steroids) or a .45 isn't the point. 

 

At some level - although I can't tell you how many miles from the closest city hall or state capitol it is, self-defense weapons become extremely important, especially if a person is out of range of immediate help.  And, by that, I mean where help is five minutes (or longer) away.  There's parts on our property where if a person went down, either due to a snake bit or wild hogs, or the occasional group of dogs that meet up after being 'released' into the wilds by irresponsible city folks, you would never be heard in a normal speaking voice.

 

The 'rage to live' is a pretty strong impulse - and one I foster.  Oh sure, you might be able to argue that "Just take your cell phone with you, you gun nut!".  A couple of problems with such simplistic ideas:  First, we're so far into the outback that cells phones won't work on most of the property due to no signal.  And, if you were to find yourself staring at a pack of advancing wild hogs (they are hairy, ugly, and nasty critters, what would you do next?  Say "It's for you?" and try to hand one the phone?

---

True, there's something worrisome about the headline that "Open-Carry" laws allow assault rifle at Obama protest!"  One side will argue it's no big deal because it is legal, but the other could argue the gun wouldn't have been there if it weren't intended to send a message or possible indicate a predisposition to use it.

 

The truth - as usual - is fuzzy and somewhere between the extreme positions at either end of this debate.  Should the right to keep and bear arms - any arms - be infringed?  No.  The Second Amendment says that  "A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the People to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed."

 

Yet, curiously, if you were to actually join up with a nongovernmental militia group - of like-minded folks who wanted to follow the 'letter of the law' and organize a local militia, you would find what?  You would be subject to all kinds of government scrutiny because the more government grows and appropriates for its own use/growth/and aggrandizement, the more threatening a 'well regulated militia appears'.  But even this leaves open to question what a 'well-regulated' militia is?  We find ourselves in linguistic quicksand.  "Well regulated" by whom?

---

Which gets me to pointing out the extremes to which government will apparently go in order to root out those who would resist government.  Read the story under the headline "Attorney: FBI trained NJ blogger to incite others"  The story about the June arrest of blogger Hal Turner and subsequent events includes this remarkable claim:

"Hal Turner worked for the FBI from 2002 to 2007 as an "agent provocateur" and was taught by the agency "what he could say that wouldn't be crossing the line," defense attorney Michael Orozco said.

 

"His job was basically to publish information which would cause other parties to act in a manner which would lead to their arrest," Orozco said. "

The reason this is so interesting - along with the federal government's refusal to comment on the charges, is that Hal Turner, best I can recall, was the source responsible for popularizing information about purported plans to launch a new North American currency which he called "the Amero", as it noted in this August 2007 post from a Google cache (don't be surprise if it disappears) said in part:

""The Hal Turner Show" has received images of the new unit of currency they are planning. It is called "the Amero" which will replace the "Dollar" and the "peso" in all three countries once they are merged out of existence!"

I don't know if you received the images of the Amero from 2007, but here's the important question of the day which needs to be asked (and I sure hope it comes out at Turner's trial): 

 

"Did the US government, its agencies, or agents, push Hal Turner to promote the "Amero" meme?"

 

I remember wondering at the time "Hmmmm...were those images of the Amero something that Turner did himself? Awfully good job of Photoshopping or whatever..."  Well, a little searching of Wikipedia finds this:

"In August 2007, rumors and conspiracy theories began circulating across the Internet regarding alleged United States Treasury-issued "amero coins".

The inspiration behind these rumors may have been the posting of images of medallions created by coin designer Daniel Carr.^[1] Carr, who designed the New York and Rhode Island 2001 statehood quarters, sells medals and tokens of his own design on his commercial website, "Designs Computed" (also known as "DC Coin").^[1] Among his designs are a series of gold, silver and copper fantasy issues of "amero coins" ranging in denomination from one to one thousand.^[1] The medallions have the legend "Union of North America" on the back with his company's logo, a stylized "DC",^[18] in small type.^[19] Concerning his "amero" designs, he mentions on his website:

My goal with these coins is not to endorse a Union of North America or a common "Amero" currency. I fully support the United States Constitution, and I would not welcome (in any form) a diminishment of its provisions. I expect that these coins will help make more people aware of the issue and the possible ramifications. I leave it up to others to decide if they are in favor of, or against a North American Union. And I encourage citizens to voice their approval or disapproval of government plans that impact them.^[20]

Unauthorized postings of images taken from his website have been reposted widely across the Internet, often being used as supposed "proof" of the amero coinage. Notably, white nationalist and former Internet radio talk show host Hal Turner ran a full article on his website about the "amero coin", claiming to have arranged for a United States Government minted "amero" to be smuggled out of the United States Department of the Treasury by an employee of that organization.^[21]

Following Turner's assertions of federal minting of ameros, a web site marketing the curio coins released a statement debunking Turner's claims of a government cover up regarding Daniel Carr's amero products.^[22] The urban legend investigating Web site Snopes also ran a further counter to Turner's claims, stating "neither the U.S. Mint nor the U.S. Treasury has a hand in creating these 'Ameros'. These coins are merely collectibles offered to the buying public by a private company in the business of manufacturing such curiosities."^[23] Hal Turner claimed that Carr's website had been created in haste in a matter of days expressly to discredit his claim about the coinage. ^[24] However, Carr's designs have been available through his website since 2005,^[25] and according to a WHOIS search at Network Solutions, the domain "dc-coin.com" was registered by Daniel Carr on 27 September 2005.^[26] In October 2008, Hal Turner released a video showing an apparent 20 amero coin, with claims that shipments of the currency had been sent to China. ^[27] Yet the coin in Hal Turner's video is identical to a medallion on Daniel Carr's "dc-coin" website, listed as "UNA 2007 20 Ameros, Copper, Satin Finish". ^[28]"

With Turner in jail, I keep asking myself:  Did Turner just stumble on the coin pictures?  Or was it maybe suggested to him in a period when it seems he was under FBI 'influence' according to his lawyer's claims?

 

And then I need to ask "To what end?"  Well, this turns into an area ripe for speculation, now, doesn't it?

• Was Turner acting on his own?

• Was he prompted to promote the 'amero" images by taxpayer funded types?

• Was the whole 'amero' done as a tracking exercise to test who would get information and pass it on in emails and such which could be picked off by Carnivore and thus give the government a whole social networking map or those who might at some point in the future oppose totalitarian (one world, new world order, or North American) governance?

• If I were writing a novel, would I embedded steganography (which I assume you know means hiding messages within a graphic)  markers in the imagery of the coins which could be used as a web site tracker to define how memeering of the free-thinking 'net could be controlled?

 

I rather distinctly remember the Turner pictures as being on a blue background.  Yet the original pages by coin designer Carr showed the Amero on a white background.  Did Turner Photoshop in the blue background I remember, or did someone do it for him?  Or, is my memory flawed?  I just don't know.

 

Part of me says there's something very interesting to be learned from following all this to its logical ends.  But then again, maybe I'm just tilting at windmills. 

 

There are many more questions that come up in this.....but the most alarming thought of all is that "The Amero" may be the high tech era's equivalent of the old COINTELPRO days of the antiwar movement in the 1960's and early 1970's.

 

I'm half watching for people to disappear next, just as the www.archrive.org original content pages of Hal Turner's web site have been 'disappeared'....

 

The images of an Amero coin and made them into a huge meme that has become an 'article of faith' among those who would believe that America's got enemies both foreign and domestic.  And the way facts are starting to stack up, they're maybe not wrong.

---

More research:  "‘Danger to the Community’: Bail Denied for Provocateur Hal Turner".  And then there's the note in Wikipedia about Turners arrest which curiously noted: "FBI officials revealed that they had found 200 rounds of ammunition and 150 hollow-point bullets in Turner’s home."

 

That ain't nothing by East Texas standards...I reckon it's about what you'd find in the average pickup truck in this area, so it's curious that it would warrant mention in the Wiki. Ponders propagate...

 

I'll let you draw your own conclusions, and while I don't agree Turner's writings, this is all taking on a tinge of surreal...

 

One thing I can safely conclude, however:  The 'outback' is a dangerous place, whether you're talking here in East Texas, or right there on that monitor in front on you.

 

---

Tuesday August 19, 2009

One Last Rally

We start with a call from my consigliore on Monday, a term I hope all Mafioso readers will forgive my applying to an attorney/CPA sort - no slight of sons of Sicily is intended.  But the call goes something like this:

"Pssst...something just jumped out at me in looking at Chris Carolan's work and Steve Puetz work:  Crashes seem to happen around the 28th day of the 7th lunar month of the year..."

Oh?  This is kind of interesting since the whole predictive linguistics project is lunar month based...go on...

"Well, that would be around October 14th this year.  So the way I have it figured, something is bound to pop then.  28th day of the 7th lunar month was the Yom Kippur War in '73, and it was the highest Defcon level during the Cuban Missile Crisis... and you know what happens 55 days before that?"

Let me guess...something close to the August 22 hot date in the linguistics?

"August 21st."   [click]

Well, OK...so hoping for a violent rally and a new high into option expiration this week isn't off the table...it's just a little bit delayed and it may start from lower levels hit in Monday's trading...

---

The stock market closed under our 9,200 Dow level on Monday, but not to worry:  In his latest email to colleagues, Robin Landry offers us hope that we'll have one more violent upside rally - and his work now includes the possibility of my favored outcome - a peek-a-boo over the 10,000 Dow level...

Another quick update since the Dow broke the 9200 area in the first few minutes of the market open Monday and stayed there into the close, I thought I would update you as to what I am looking for over the next few days. If I am correct in the wave count, we have one more final surge to the 9700 -10200 area, to complete Wave 4, or even higher, if my alternate count (Wave 2) is in effect once this correction is over. The attached chart shows the possible wave pattern to the ideal low for this Wave B at the 8950 area. If that level is broken and volume begins to increase on the downside then the odds begin to favor that THE TOP for this rally, off the March low, is over and new lows are directly ahead. I will address that if it occurs with another update.

 

Readers are picking up all kinds of tell-tales about.  One, for example, has been looking at the Philadelphia Housing Index (HGX) which he notes was cut in half in 2007 and roughly a year later the S&P 500 was halved.  Then in 2008, the housing index went nowhere...and then in mid-September of 2008 it was halved again.  So is this just a coincidence or is it a one-year lead-time indicator of what's to come?  If it holds this year, then the Dow ought to be halved in the September-October period of this year, which would (from a peek-a-boo over 10,000) put us down around Landry's Dow 4,400 expectation.

 

Wonder if Depends sales will go up in mid September?

 

But no worries yet - rally on today and since the market needs to rally a bit, then how about something rosy to hang the rally on?  Something like, oh....

 

Producer Prices

No inflation in sight!  Hallelujah, brother!  Pimp them futures!  New Producer Price index numbers are out this morning, and here's how they pencil out...

"The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decrease followed advances of 1.8 percent in June and 0.2 percent in May. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved down 0.2 percent in July after rising 1.9 percent in the prior month, and the crude goods index fell 4.5 percent following a 4.6-percent increase in June. (See table A.)

The downturn in finished goods prices was broad based. The index for energy goods fell 2.4 percent in July after climbing 6.6 percent a month earlier, prices for consumer foods decreased 1.5 percent following a 1.1-percent advance in the previous month, and the index for goods other than foods and energy edged down 0.1 percent compared with a 0.5-percent rise in June.

Not that the government numbers mean much, since there's such a disconnect in statistical techniques.  But that's the ruling paradigm view for you... I'll just sit back and see how many writers can screw up the rewrite of this very simple government press release. 

 

There Goes Healthcare Reform

Reports that the Obama administration is willing to 'start over' on healthcare reform is an 'excellent idea' according to some of the Blue Dogs.

 

Usually, when there is a big hoopla about something in the (manufactured) news arena, I find myself asking "What was really going on during the past month or two that we weren't supposed to notice?"  Uh....sixth biggest bank failure ever being under our belt with no particular panic in the markets, maybe?

 

Somehow, Arnold Schwarzenegger's famous line "I'll be back..." wells up from my subconscious.  As does the latest cartoon from our resident  cartoonista, Rebecca Price of www.toon-republic.com:

 

 

Wonder if the doctor has swine flu vaccines in that case?

 

Schwein Time

Speaking of which, you saw where the actor from the Brit's swine flu commercial got swine flu?

 

Florida Sinking

Word that the population of Florida is dropping for the first time since 1946 has me asking:  Is it just the housing bubble collapsing, or is there some subliminal sense of wanting to leave the lowlands at work here?

 

WTF Foreign Affairs

Here's a pisser:  "Iraq may hold vote on U.S. Withdrawal."  Hey!  Shouldn't we have had a vote on that at some point?  I mean, change...remember that?  Change?  I never expected Iraq's government would be more democratic than ours, did you?  How come our congress can't listen to us on things like bailouts and buying, oh, AIG, just for example....Jeez Louise....

 

Hack Attack

A super hacker has been busted by the Feds after reportedly getting 130-million credit card numbers. 

 

The real question - not answered in coverage so far:  Were any of them not max'ed out?  So what was the point, eh?

 

Bill's Due

Not that kinda bill....the kind that's a hurricane about to pounce on Bermuda.  There go my golf plans for the weekend...hate soggy greens (have to blame something, right?)

 

Comet Sense

Science is reporting that an amino acid that's a common building block of life has been found in a comet.  Grand.  Now if we just had some building blocks of life on earth that were not owned and rented out to humans...

 

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Coping:  With Corso, Redux

Several times I have referred to a dandy (if not slightly mind-bending) by Philip Corso titled The Day After Roswell.  In this book, not only is the reader told that the mother of all UFO stories - the purported crash of a UFO in Roswell, New Mexico real, but worse than that, not only did the military pick up bits and pieces of technology from the crash and reconstruct some of it, but there was also some biological material recovered as well.

 

I won't spoil the whole plot for you in case you read Corso's book, but whether you choose to believe in UFO's, or not, the whole phenomenology of the July 1947 events is quite interesting.  Backgrounding could begin with the simple Wikipedia entry here and can take you in all kinds of directions.

 

I know, you're thinking "Wasn't the crap about the Rendlesham Forest UFO incident in the U.K. enough on the topic of UFOlogy for the week?" 

 

No.  Because when this part of the predictive linguistics goes 'hot' - as it is now - there are some very interesting revelations buried in the noise which demand closer attention.  Let me roll out the white board and run through this morning's bullet points.

---

First, Corso alleges that core technology - things like transistors, lasers, and fiber optics, just to name a couple, came out of the 19476 Roswell crash.  There was also reported to be many bits of an amazing metal included in the recovered debris.

 

It's this metal that I'd draw your attention to.  The oddity of the metal reports are highlighted by the descriptions of its physical properties.  The recovered pieces supposedly had some hieroglyphics on them and the metal which was thin sheet material could bent this way and that - or even crumbled up in a ball, just as you would paper, and yet would then return to its original shape when left untouched.

 

All of this would be just so much hooey, except that this week, the UFO Digest is reporting a study from Battelle Institute from 1949, which goes into some depth about the amazing memory metal, has been obtained.  Not only does the Battelle report seem to confirm the existence of this wondrous 'memory metal' but it confirms other claims by a scientist named Elroy John Center who is named in one section of the report as working on the underlying metallurgy.

 

Turns out that ultra-pure titanium and nickel really can make 'memory metal' and that it was reportedly 'seeded' (like Corso's transistor, laser and fiber optics report in Day After Roswell) to the military from whence  those latter is found their way into civilian applications.

 

A little more research finds that not only is Shape Metal Alloy (SMA) a real technology, but there is both one-way memory and two-way memory, according to a Wikipedia entry.

 

What's more, when we read the Wiki entry on shape metal alloy, the history section ties neatly into the 1949 work and subsequent Navy development behind secret walls:

"The first reported steps towards the discovery of the shape memory effect were taken in the 1930s. According to Otsuka and Wayman (1998), A. Ölander discovered the pseudoelastic behavior of the Au-Cd alloy in 1932. Greninger & Mooradian (1938) observed the formation and disappearance of a martensitic phase by decreasing and increasing the temperature of a Cu-Zn alloy. The basic phenomenon of the memory effect governed by the thermoelastic behavior of the martensite phase was widely reported a decade later by Kurdjumov & Khandros (1949) and also by Chang & Read (1951).

The nickel-titanium alloys were first developed in 1962–1963 by the Naval Ordnance Laboratory and commercialized under the trade name Nitinol (an acronym for Nickel Titanium Naval Ordnance Laboratories). Their remarkable properties were discovered by accident. A sample that was bent out of shape many times was presented at a laboratory management meeting. One of the associate technical directors, Dr. David S. Muzzey, decided to see what would happen if the sample was subjected to heat and held his pipe lighter underneath it. To everyone's amazement the sample stretched back to its original shape.[2][3]

There is another type of S.M.A., called a ferromagnetic shape memory alloy (FSMA), that changes shape under strong magnetic fields. These materials are of particular interest as the magnetic response tends to be faster and more efficient than temperature-induced responses.

Metal alloys are not the only thermally-responsive materials; shape memory polymers have also been developed, and became commercially available in the late 1990s."

I wasn't aware, until I read up on the field, how much of this shape metal alloy had already come into consumer applications.  But, sure enough, under Nitinol, we find it is being used in...

"1) Couplings, (2) Biomedical and medical, (3) Toys, demonstration, novelty items, (4) Actuators, (5) Heat Engines, (6) Sensors, (7) Cryogenically activated die and bubble memory sockets, and finally (8) lifting devices."

Which translates to orthodontic materials, golf club inserts, stents for heart patients, suture and highly biocompatible applications, resilient glasses frames and some watch springs, a kind of thermostat, cell phone antennas, and you'll love this: underwiring for bras!

---

Taken not individually, but as a body of work, it seems that the 1947 Roswell crash was a lot more than just found a museum and kick of Roswell New Mexico's tourism project.

---

If you're looking for a 'Grand Unified Conspiracy Theory", here's one that you don't want to throw out:

• Suppose that both the US and Germany in the years leading to - and after - WW II both made tremendous breakthroughs in a wide range of scientific efforts, such as antigravitics perhaps using the Biefeld-Brown Effect.

• Let's further suppose that some of the Germans who were involved in the famous Nazi Bell ("Die Glocke") experiments in time/space bending had accidentally stumbled into new technology and that some portion of the Nazi hierarchy was able to escape to a foreign country (Argentina or the Antarctic, just for example) where they would have continued their Fourth Reich developments, but rebranded perhaps.

• Then let us further suppose that after the war, those scientists which were not involved and came to America, were not really the cream of the crop and that there really was some technology lost which then 'went underground'.

• The crash of the Roswell craft certainly would have evened the playing field up, but its possible that to this day, there's a secret technology race underway.... OR...

• Not from here entities in some way had gotten to leaders of the US via something like the 1952 Washington D.C. mass UFO sighting case.

• In either event, the bulk of humans (you and me) would really be incidental pawns in a very large chess game where the elimination of a large segments of humans (like us) would be fine with those who are playing at the next higher level up.

 

And that could very well explain why we get in the longer term predictive linguistics value sets so much discussion about 'alien wars' out in a couple of years.  Since the technology filters out the obvious references to popular culture (like new movies coming out and book titles/content) it's a possibility that can't be enti8rely overlooked.

 

Such a monstrous Unified Conspiracy Theory may seem outlandish when you first ponder it - and I don't consider myself vested one way or the other in it, but when I take all the available data - ranging from alien abduction reports, transdimensional experiences, the huge amount of technological progress following Roswell, and now the Battelle report which admits to working on memory metal and sets the stage for 'seeding' of technology (after Corso's assertions), the only problem I have with all the data is what?

 

It all fits under this kind of framework.  Right down to calling the shots (a poor vaccination pun) about our future.

 

Oh - and since there seems to be a whole boatload of high tech on the back shelf, it means that if faced with collapse of the global economy, the real PowersThatBe could have a serious upper hand over the useless eater crowd.

 

And that in turn ties back to the large number of people who reportedly go away (in data terms) over the coming five years, or so.  Either one in six die, or one in six survive.

 

Not exactly light hearted and humorous, but every once in a while when the linguistics project says "Here comes important data!" we look at new data that appears and see if it throws out the unthinkable.

 

In this case, it seems to reinforce - not contradict - a larger framework than is readily apparent.  A kind of pattern behind the chaos that would exp0lain where all the black budget money has been going for all these years....

 

Bodacious Solar

Reader sent in a picture of his new solar installation....damn impressive...

"Hey George;

Thought I’d show ya the new Solar system I’m putting in. (Xantrex 12,000 Watt, 48 volt)

But also have a couple of questions. While back you mentioned a diesel additive / stabilizer; remember what it was? And what are you using for a battery bank on your system…I’m at the point of swapping out my DECA 215 amp golf cart batteries for something heavier; looking at DECA “8L16’s (Two strings of 8) curious what you have.

Also I have two Xantrex SW Plus 2524 inverters for sale (Previous system) 5000 watts stacked. Have all manuals & stacking comm.. cable, hardware, etc. $2600.00 for the pair + Shipping, if ya know anyone out your way. They operate perfectly…just needed more power Scotty! "

This brings up a number of items.  First, on the diesel preservative:  The stuff I used on the sailboat was GOLD EAGLE CO 22240 32OZMarine Fuel Sta-Bil although I don't know what's different about it from this stuff: STA-BIL 22214 Fuel Stabilizer - 32 Fl oz. - maybe more dyer of some kind in the marine version - just don't know.

 

The main thing about diesel is that you've really got two problems when it comes to storage.  One is that diesel can, over time, grow algae in it.  There's enough moisture and little gorwy-thingies that diesel is actually a growing medium.  If that's your main concern, you can simply get a good biocide for your diesel...something like Biobor Jf 16oz. Growth Control which I also used on the boat.  Didn't take too much and never had to worry about fouled filters & injectors over a 10-year period. 

 

The other part of preservation is maintenance of hexane levels.  I used a product called CRC something or other on my boat for a while.  While it ran fine in the engine, the place where it seemed to increase the amount of soot was in the diesel-fired heating system.

 

So if I were looking for a single-shot solution, I would just Sta-Bil...and be done with it.  Think you can get 10-years out of Sta-Bil if youi dose at (or slightly over) the recommended levels.

 

Second question about the battery bank here:  On my first bank, I'm using eight Interstate U-2200

six volt golf cart batteries.  These are rated at 232 amp-hours each so with two strings of four batteries, I figure about 464 amp-hours.

 

In order to have a 'balanced system' - in other words, one where the maximum inverter load would be matched closely to the battery bank, I would go for HUGE battery capacity.  At a minimum I would be putting in four strings (in parallel) of 8-batteires (in series) which would give you the 48-volts and 900-odd amp-hours.

 

I know that sounds like a lot of batteries, but when you start pulling that full 12 kW out of your batteries, you'll be sucking somewhere around  250 amps (just for the load) plus maybe 5% above that for conversion efficiency loss  (263-264 amps) and then if you observe the maximum depth of discharge of 60% on the batteries, that would give you only about 2-hours of full load on batteries.

 

Remember:  Although the batteries are rated at 232 amp-hours each, that's when the energy is taken out over a 20-hour rate.  When you take the energy out faster, the effective size of the battery shrinks to 50% (or less) once you're inside the 6-hour rate.

 

That's because the chemistry of lead-acid batteries is pretty clearly defined.  When you discharge a battery, the sulfuric acid deposits sulfur on the plates and if you aren't using a complex pumped electrolyte battery set up (forget it - don't even ask) then you get plate near plate stratification of the electrolyte and that diminishes effective capacity - see Peukert's law (1897) for details here.

 

Your proposed battery bank of 215 amp-hour bank (2 strings worth) would get you 430 amp-hours of capacity - so with a 60% depth of discharge, you'd be looking at only about 268 amp-hours useable, which is just one hour at the 12kw Max load you're proposing.  What are you running, a drill rig?  One rule of thumb I like is each watt of inverter should have an equal watt of solar panels...

 

I am still tuning my book on solar energy system design, but you get the idea, I hope?

 

Discharge more than 60% a couple of dozen times and those batteries - no matter how good they are - will be destined for the recycle bin.  I'm just sayin'...

 

It's way cheaper to manage the demand side - so things like LED lighting, battery voltage fans (24 or 48) for ventilation, and low voltage pumps...that kind of thing.  Monster inverters are tres cool and all, but for my 2 kw of inverter, I've got 464 amp-hours and figure it's only half the battery bank I want....

 

You might consider some ex-phone company 2-volt cells or a couple of forklift batteries...then you'd have something going...just my opinion, from a design standpoint, is all.

---

Monday August 17, 2009

Can 9,200 Hold?

Expect a plunge at the opening this morning.  Wearing Depends might help if you haven't followed our 'flee paper assets' lead - thinking you'd 'make some back'.  Ha!.  Although we get a couple of meaningful economic numbers to ponder this week, such as the Producer Price Index, which ought to be up around the top of tomorrow's report, along with housing starts, the real question is what will happen to the stock market, since Robin Landry's latest outlook for colleagues of his in the professional investment world looks decidedly glum, ponders whether 9,200 on the Dow will hold.  It's available for Peoplenomics subscribers.

 

The main question revolves around whether the market has met the minimums for completion of the 4th wave 'bounce' (yes) and if the market could begin its major decline from here (yes, again), then where are the critical support areas?  The answer:  About 9,200 on the Dow.  A couple of days under that and...well, like I said about the Depends....

---

The fact that we had the sixth largest bank failure in U.S. history this weekend (Colonial) might be blamed by some pundits for the drop in commodity prices today. BB&T which was on the receiving end of this shotgun marriage is now going to the markets to raise $750-million, which I expect will keep our friends there up to their behinds in overtime.  Ain't it great being on a salary, huh?.

---

I trust you also noticed that oil dropped under $67 a barrel in Asia?  One view is that the recovery may not be as robust as all the hype would have led the unaware to expect - but no worries about that around here, since my skepticism of the 'recovery' and 'green shoots' has been matched only by my belief in the mythical 'free lunch' and the 'Easter Bunny.'

 

So barring a major change in the way modern HF (out of control) economics works out, I would expect today's action to be initially to the downside.  Forget all the hoopla:  The gold and silver gang occasionally gets beat up and bloodied at mid-month to scare the longs away.  Headlines like "Gold hits 2-eeek low as rick aversion lifts dollar" might make it seem as though there's a little sanity left, but only so long as you put out of your mind the fact that the Fed is buying Treasuries to keep the whole game of musical chairs going.

 

Could we see a running of the shorts this week?  yes, it's possible, but from what levels?  I've decided NOT to play the game because catching falling knives is the financial equivalent of playing on a freeway on a dark and foggy night.  Instead, we'll be putting in more investment grade diesel and working on the house. And if it ever co9ols down, so I can work outside at something less than 100-degree temps, we'll get back to gardening, since local Master Gardener types have given us some ideas on fire ant control.  They're just too small to pick off one-by-one with the .22.

---

Another factor which will weigh on the market is the closure of city government in Chicago today.  Although fire and police are still working, non-essential services are closed in the wake of the Windy City's budget blow-out, I wonder if parking tickets will still be handed out?  In all, the partial closure today, the Friday after Thanksgiving, and Christmas Eve day will save about $8.3 million.

---

There's a headline in the Financial Times (UK) recently that summed everything up neatly.  They call this "A rally with troubling aspects."  Oh, you mean like the 700 price/earnings ratio that the David Rosenberg of Gluskin/Sheff noticed a while back?  Yeah, I guess that would qualify as 'troubling'.

 

With a little bit of money in gold & silver, a bit in treasuries, and focusing on buying useable goods for future use, you should be able to understand why this week's Peoplenomics report was titled 'Popcorn at the Train Wreck'.

 

Healthscare Review

If a review of the financial markets doesn't have you grabbing for a double dose of Prozac this morning, watching the healthscare debate may add a bit of comic relief.  Why, there's so much plain old 'noise' around this it's like watching the Keystone Cops.  One Texas democorp says a healthscare bill 'without a public option would be very, very difficult' to pass. Republicorp Dick Armey  "predicted that supporters of reform would attempt to win over the “bed-wetters caucus”

 

Not that the issue isn't global, however.  The incoming head of the Canadian Medical Association says that country's healthcare system is imploding, too.

 

With Health & Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius saying that a government run option isn't essential, I expect this will drag out longer than the TV series Dallas...and leaving us all speculating as to what happened long after the final episode.

 

The way I have it figured is this:

• Whatever happens, it will cost more federal dollars and that will be an excuse to raise taxes.

• Whatever happens will be watered down by lobbyists in ways that will defend the current paradigm of dollars for healthcare.

• Concurrently, we will see the swine flu hysteria whipped up as a justification despite the headlines like "Swine flu jab link to killer nerve disease: Leaked letter reveals concern of neurologists over 25 deaths in America."

 

Can't have an omelet without a few broken eggs, huh?  I have to wonder if the CEO's of these pharmanical jabbers are taking the same modified-after-trials-are-complete version of the flu vaccine, or if they are taking them at all?

 

Better question:  How come the press hasn't asked this obvious question of top brass of the pharmacorps?  Did any of them volunteer their kids for trials?  Volunteered their wives or husbands?  I doubt it...but I'd love to learn otherwise.

 

Mexican Army at Our Border

The story about how the Mexican Army has taken over customs work at the border this weekend in what's billed as a campaign to root out corruption might seem like a good thing.  But, with an army at our border, am I being overly nervous about the sanctity of the border line?

---

You see where "Mexico cartels go from drugs to full-scale mafias"?  Next thing you know, they will become governments....oh, you say they are already?

 

Shakin'

Remember the mention from the HalfPastHuman predictive linguistics reports about how we were going to have so many good-sized earthquakes this summer that counting them would be meaningless?  30 + quakes of 5.0 or larger in the past seven days according to the USGS page this morning.  Five of those were over 6.0.  Busy shaking time with a 6.4 shaker this morning in Japan.

 

Thar They Blows

The named storms may have been really late showing up this year, but boy, are they making up for lost time.  We have Tropical Storm Claudette coming ashore in Florida and our first hurricane of the year is named "Bill."

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We could use a little rain over here in Texas if you get tired of 'em in Florida.  I'll pay for the FedEx charges if you can  figure out how to pack it.

 

Texas Politics

I notice where Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson is running for governor here in Texas.  I wonder she's thought about Rick Perry's operating leases of publicly paid  for highways to foreign corporations as an issue?  Or, the constantly resurfacing NAFTA /TransTexas corridor that keeps popping up?

 

Axis of Missiles

The headline that Japanese intelligence figures that "Secret Syrian-Iranian-NKorean missile-test fails, kills 20 Syrians" is a bad bit of news.  North Korea apparently has nuclear weapons technology, and to be married up with the folks in Iran and Syria...well, a little disconcerting since we have that October 25th date range coming up in about 70-days, or so.

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Meantime Kim Jong Il is planning to ease border restrictions...and might that not push gold down toward the 'last train out $700 level" wonders a reader?  Good question.  I won't be selling...I'll be buying more if it does.

 

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Coping: With Echoes of Rendlesham

With not much more than the usual drone of news (so far) to get us in the mood for what's coming this fall, the odd story here and there about UFO's is always an amusing diversion.  For example, there was a story out just this morning on the BBC website that "A former head of the armed forces told the defence secretary a UFO claim known as Britain's Roswell could be a "banana skin", newly released files show."

 

The so-called Rendlesham Forrest case is almost as good as Roswell.  There were tons of witnesses, and since most were activity duty military, it'

s a bit hard to write them all off as crazies.  Especially when there were drawings made of a saucer-shaped craft.

 

1981-1996 has more than 800-sightings, according to an ITN video report, but what's more, there seems to be a correlation between the release of major movies with a UFO bent and the number of sightings. 

 

I mention this - and other coverage like the headline in the Daily Express "Secret X-Files reveal hundreds of UFO's" to underscore that whether we like it, or not, the predictive linguistics have had another hit with this latest flurry of headlines coming out of the UK.

---

The ITN report on the latest release of information makes reference to increases in UFO sighting reports whenever a UFO oriented movie comes out.  The report specifically mentioned the 1978 'Close Encounters" flick (it was really 1977, but that's a nit, eh?)  and "Independence Day" which came out in 1996.

 

There almost seems to be an inference that the release of movies on topic causes an increase in reports and we're left wondering (and this may be all part of how disinfo works in this stuff) if maybe people aren't reporting more UFO's because they have been conditioned by a movie.

 

While that's one possibility, there is another:  namely that with the release of a movie on topic, isn't it possible that a large number of people who may have seen UFO's and never reported them might feel safer sharing their experiences?

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That's something that I picked up from my recent emails involving people who had seen ORBs and people who had experiences with the shadow people.

 

There may be a fair amount of conditioning going on - and much of it unconscious, I'm sure.  But I wish I could get hold of the ITN report, or some of the other people who are covering this story in the UK to ask them a very important question that's nagging at me.

 

"When there's a comparison made of report levels to movie release dates, was this something that the reporter dug up on his or her own, or was it something actually suggested by authorities who were releasing the data?"

 

This is the fourth batch of UFO files released by the British since May of last year. 

 

Headlines like "UFO sightings may have been down to "X Files" have me wondering whether there's some deliberate conditioning going on about the veracity of UFO reports - blaming movie releases on report levels.

 

Don't know about you, but the reports that a UFO fired burring laser beams from over a cemetery are just a tad curious.  When an investigating policeman finds a burning railroad tie (sleeper there) I get to wondering "Wonder if that's a weapons test because at least in the Northern hemisphere, UFO policy has been 'shoot first, ask questions later..."

 

A bunch of other versions for reading here...

 

Time Check

Every once in a while I put up a link to the US Debt Clock.org site.  Depressing, but that's what time it is.

 

Golf

So, Tiger Woods lost this week?  OMG, there may be hope for my game yet...just as soon as temps come down.  Why, I think I could beat Tiger now..if he'd spot me 100 strokes...