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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday
September 12, 2009 07:55 AM CDT
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Saturday Morning at the Guillotine Once upon a time I had grand designs on sleeping in Saturday mornings, but that was before the FDIC got into the habit of posting the latest closed bank information either very, very late Friday, or early Saturday morning. Not counting ATM's and online banking operations, since the fall of IndyMac last year, we have not seen 3,684 branches closed or reorganized into other operations (mostly the latter) including the 30 branches of the following which are going through reorg this weekend:
In fairness, we're in what passes for 'normal' in this French Revolution of banking: So far this year we have only seen 1,077 branched reorg'ed, but if we don't count the 800-pound gorilla that failed last year (Washington Mutual/2,239 branches) the numbers for last year wouldn't seem so bad, either. --- Looking ahead to next week, market watching could turn back into a nearly fulltime avocation since insiders have reportedly been selling at a furious pace and that usually translate to "strong hands' holdings are being distributed to weaker hands - namely people still courageous (or foolish) enough to trust 401 (k) stock holdings to keep their retirement dreams alive.
Not that throwing a couple of bucks in the direction of new technologies would be a bad thing, if your investment horizon was on the order of 20-30 years. America's still a great country and the largest consumer nation on the planet. While that's likely to change over the next couple of years, there may be the odd winner in high/new tech.
On the other hand, investors over 50 (of which we are two, Elaine and me) might wish to be far more focused on maintenance of purchasing power for those few dollars which made it through the 2000-2001 Tech Wreck. The chart no one on Wall Street is holding up is the one which shows performance of a portfolio that was comprised of equal parts Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite since 2000. (it's here). As you'll see, it's nowhere near equality with 2000's purchasing power.
The amount of dough and what it will buy these days might have been augmented by the odd dividend or split along the way, but in many cases the fund management fees which I'd insist on taking into account if we're drilling down into the sludge, usually eat those - and a lot more. --- Even though I've read a fair bit about economic depressions in the course of my study of the subject which dates back to my news-chasing days in the early7 1970's, I haven't read it all. But reading about human foibles in days past can be a pretty good predictor of how humans will react in the present day as well as the future.
While
Ben Bernanke's assessment of the Great Depression ( Essays on the Great Depression
Since
we've got a fair bit of rain going here in East Texas this
weekend, I've decided to settle in with about equal parts of
The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm --- Speaking of books, my brother-in-law read the first few chapters of my novel-in-progress, "Dimension Barrier" and pronounced "Too many facts." What I'm aiming for is a middle ground between Clive Cussler for just damn fine storytelling on the one hand and Tom Clancy for accuracy of technology slinging. Not that writing a novel takes much time when it's all done in a lump, but like so much else in life it's the start-up, quit, and restart sequencing that seems to be the most difficult. Just too damn many hobbies. --- But that's what rattles around between my ears early on Saturday morning when only the cats and I are up: I wonder "What would the French Revolution have looked like if it had been played with falling credit card limits instead of falling guillotines? The effect is to kill people one way or the other, just one is more subtle and the card killing process quite protracted. --- I've intellectualized away attendance at stock car races, motorcycle road races and even air shows with high aerobatic content figuring that what brings people to such events is the prospect of death. Nevertheless, here I am on Saturday morning clicking on the FDIC web site. I'm sure there's a difference, but putting into words seems difficult, especially when I've got at least some clue as to the plight of homeless when the rains come - and it's still a long ways till winter.
So instead I'll try to encapsulate it as "Saturday morning at the guillotine" and suggest that the current financial revolution is likely to take even longer than the 10-years of the French Revolution so a few same-old Saturdays can be expected along the way.
I'd best leave it as a weekend ponder for you: sorting out which is (or was) closer to the people: Washington over the past 10-years or Versailles?
I'll be the guy with the "Vote 'Em All OUT" sticker...
Freak Numbers The Dow closed Friday at 9,605.41. On September 11, 2001, the Dow closed at guess what? 9,605.51. A lousy 1/10th of one point difference for 8-years of risk. --- Sure as I point out something like this, some reader somewhere will shoot me an email demanding "Why don't you take dividends and splits into account?"
The answer, you ninny, is "If you let me count delisted stocks" and oh, by the way, the dollar's purchasing power has dropped 20.45% in the last eight years. Just so we keep apples to apples here.
Mr. Ure's Investment Tip of the Day: If a broker, financial products salesman, or other bankster shill doesn't show you inflation adjusted/purchasing power parity performance data don't walk...RUN as fast as you can.
Federal Red Ink: Still Growing Far as I can figure, eventually we get lots more inflation since the Federal Deficit "hits $1.38T through August."
This would pencil out to a $1.505 trillion deficit at the present run rate by the time things wrap up on September 30th. And, if we assume a gross domestic product of around $13-trillion, that implies to my simple-minded way of looking at things a baked-in inflation rate (or speed of purchasing power being watered down, whichever you can cope with) of 11.5%. --- Prices don't have to go up for there to be inflation. All than needs to happen is that wages go down. See how this works? Yet Keynesians, I'm sure would argue there's been no inflation if prices don't go up. Gag me. Semantics suck. Standard of living tanking is the issue all labels and hyperbole aside. --- Eventually, the people who provide our energy and all that stuff from Asia are going to charge us higher prices since the dollars won't buy as much. Which gets us to....
Tire Tariffs Although here in the Second Depression we don't have something as all-encompassing as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, we are starting to see the game of tit-for-tat ratchet up between the US and China.
In case you haven't been paying attention, the Chinese decision recently that they would not require state-owned companies to honor certain financial products (derivatives) positions if they believed there was fraud in how they were sold to the Chinese, we now see the US about to impose a tariff on tires from China.
China, 'natch, says this is "Protectionist!" Yeah, and? --- Word that a presidential adviser says to expect high unemployment for years to come sounds like someone speaking for an administration that is not seriously interested in (or can't seem to fathom the concept of) ONSHORING JOBS BACK TO THE US. Duh!
The big tire plant in Tyler, Texas wasn't saved by this tire tariff - a couple of three years late, but then don't start me down that path.
Next sticker: Outsource Washington!
Whoever those people are there - who seem intent on spending us into wealth - life doesn't work that way and the surest way to create prosperity in America is to trash globalist pap and rebuild America into a self sufficient powerhouse. Globalism has never been any more or less than rich folks playing labor rate differentials and pocketing the difference. Plain as day. Ask anyone in Detroit, Ohio, or states that used to be huge manufacturing centers.
"What Does He Have?" Department People -especially in the mainstream press, have gone to great lengths to demonize, marginalize, and ridicule Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. Yet this week, Mugabe held meetings with the EU for the first time in seven years.
Now, why do you suppose that is? The way I figure it, the Western resource depletion juggernaut is going to have to get serious about resource-stripping of Africa.
This shouldn't come as a shocker if you read the piece "Hillary Clinton seeks to strengthen US imperialism's position in Africa" last month. Nor should headlines like "AFRICOM to the rescue" more currently.
So what's the interest in Zimbabwe? I mean besides (from the CIA World Fact Book): "coal, chromium ore, asbestos, gold, nickel, copper, iron ore, vanadium, lithium, tin, platinum group metals" and no environmental regulations and a nice central location?
My bet is on lithium - yeah, the stuff that makes new technology batteries. We've already seen a heightened interest in Bolivia as a resource-rich target for 'improved relations" (which someone really cynical might read as resource-stripping).
No point onshoring anything to America, just yet, is there? Still too many outposts to build to secure longer-term resources like a good supply of lithium.
Besides, even if we don't need all that lithium for batteries, the nearly manic US population might sooner than later need lithium carbonate added to its water supplies.
What a glorious new line of development, huh? Why just imagine progressing beyond democracy to where we won't even have to vote, we'll be of such a single national mind and purpose...
Is it too early for a beer?
ACORN Out The report that the Census Bureau was severing ties with ACORN in the 2010 Census counting comes as little surprise. Bite your tongue if you're cobbling up "Washington" and "nuts" jokes. We try to be serious around here at least now and then.
The Alien Healthcare Wiggle Kinda sounds like a dance, doesn't it? Well, the White House is busy offering clarification about how much verification illegals will need before they get free healthcare anyway...
MSM Follies What? Gunshots on the Potomac? Run with it! Even if the facts later show it was a routine training exercise for the Coast Guard and gives the White House a chance to blame the MSM for getting a bit carried away. Such are the pressures to be firstest with the mostest in newsrooms. As good ratings, so go raises over time.
Shoot The Moon Word that "NASA names target for water hunt at moon's south pole" reminds me that there really are warlike aliens in space.
Us. --- See you Monday morning 'bout 8 AM. --- Send comments to george@ure.net The UrbanSurvival Mall: Peoplenomics This Week: Free Satellite TV: Building an Information Platform Not to be a stick in the mud, but as much as I like to watch television as much as the next guy, I'm definitely in the came of not wanting to pay for it. At various times, we've had the pay TV services and it gets to be spendy - month after month and in these uncertain times promising to pay even $50 for an assortment of news and business channels mounts up. Over the usual 2-year commitment, you're talking about as much as a couple of thousand bucks - and in some cases equipment is on top of that. What's a guy to do? One of the answers is "Free-to-air" television. No, you won't find the assortment of stations and no, not much out there that is HD, but that's what NetFlix is for - the occasional good/worthwhile movie. This week's report (since it's a holiday weekend and all) is something other than our normal 'grim' fare of economic outlooks. A simple how-to which can save you a thousand dollars a year and free up 2-hours a day. The grim stuff is in the chart section. More For Subscribers Subscription Information MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Maxa-Cookie Manager No, when you tell your browser to 'empty your cookies' of web sites you've visited, it probably won't get them all. Why? Because there is a whole class of 'browser-independent' cookies that will gobble up space on your hard drive, but more important is they will sneak out information about you without you being aware of it. Ever week I get emails like this one:
Test drive it free by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will be $35 bucks. Is your privacy worth it?
Once you try it out, click the
upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35
unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive
'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer
may run faster. I've taken
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time...
Feeling Thorny? Want to be a thorn in the side of the Old World Order? Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course....
"Live on $10,000" Updated I've told you in the past to order my ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less..." with the rationale that "We're all going to live it shortly, anyway." Don't know as you have looked lately, but the unemployment rate is up more than 3% since I wrote the first edition of that book and underpasses have never been more homely. Worth ordering? Just visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click this little whizzie...
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left... Click here for the index and details. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday September 11, 2009 PWPP: Eight Years On This is the morning of the eighth anniversary of the 9/11 events that many of us would like to put out of our minds. New Yorkers will be gathering at 'ground zero' and the country will go through some degree of grieving again, while the calls for a renewed investigation will likely also be heard. We don't need to recount all the unanswered questions, but a few continue to echo. Most notable are the questions as to why WTC-7 came down - even if you believe the 'jet fuel softened the steel' stories at the other towers. Nor will we probe into whether the Twin Towers could have ever economically been rehabbed because of the asbestos which was used in its construction. What Thermite residue found in the wreckage? Why is the one-time FEMA videographer hiding out in parts unknown in South America still? --- I'll leave the debate about those questions to others. I'm still hung-up on the coincidental timing of the attacks which came just at the moment when the whole country was on the verge of collapsing into the Second Depression. Following hard on the heels of the massive decline in high tech stocks - the Tech Wreck that wiped anyway from zero to 80% out of some folks' retirement dreams, the financial shock of 9/11 accomplished a financial 'miracle' for the country. Consider that it:
Hell of a convenient occurrence from an economic standpoint this 9/11 even viewed from eight years on. Almost too convenient, but I'm the first to admit being a distrusting curmudgeonly cynic. As a nation we still haven't gotten the 'butt we were gonna kick' in the Twin Towers' aftermath. Is Osama bin Laden more than a PowerPoint demon?
Or, would his capture deflate the sails that move us around the 'Stans & Sands? --- SI think back on morning's anniversaries this and ask "What would today's world be like without 9/11?" Would we be involved in military adventures in 'the sand box'? Would we be in Afghanistan if there were no poppies there? Maybe, but not to this extent, I figure.
Would we have lost the auto industry and the banks much earlier on? Almost certainly since the nation was on the doorstep of the Second Depression when the first plane hit the WTC.
In an almost Orwellian sense, we have entered a time of 'permanent war for permanent peace'. PWPP.
The need for 'peace-time' war-making was first expressed in the Bush (I) administration with the first Gulf War. It came within a 3½ years of the Berlin Wall coming down (1987). Thanks to that as the son of a Bush, we've managed to completely squander what should have been a huge post-Cold War peace dividend many times over.
We'll discus the point (war-making and option pricing theory- this weekend in my Peoplenomics report). But the bottom line is pretty simple: Ain't much money in peace. And when options-pricing theory is applied, you can easily tell where we go from here. ---
Written purportedly as a 'spoof' on "think-tanking" during the
Vietnam War era, Leonard C. Lewin's "Report From Iron Mountain
The book also goes on to suggest the important political and sociological impacts of war, but I expect the 'rally 'round the President' seen in the wake of 9/11 and the coming together of America into a 'can do' 'let's kick some butt' nation has been effectively orchestrated to the desires of people behind the scenes ever since.
We seem to have long ago forgotten that the only planes flying over the US during the travel halt following 9/11 were Saudi. The hijackers came from Saudi Arabia, also. Yet that's not where we went to pick our wars since they have needed oil. Instead, the not particularly al Qaida (or even Wahhabi) friendly despot in Baghdad was the target, conveniently left on the board from the first Gulf War. Helped along by forged uranium documents which conveniently appeared and congressional testimony that stretched the facts, we're where we are today. --- The debate continues over "Iron Mountain" - was it really a satire as argued, or was it a leaked document slightly reworked from a semi-official study? We'll never know, but some parts have the ring of truth.
But what the aware observer can be looking for once we run out of countries to occupy are the 'war substitutes' which the book explores. The common element between all scenarios discussed is that they would each compel regular humans living in the USA to accept the rule (and taxes) of government.
The central tenet of the book is that any society needs an external or internal threat of sufficient magnitude to force society to pay tribute/taxes and to 'pull together' as a unit and thus be semi-pliable under the reins of political leadership.
Some of the book's sources of 'external threat' may seem a bit exaggerated and improbable, such as an external enemy race of 'aliens' arriving. That'd certainly spur such social cohesion. If you doubt it, go watch the movie "Independence Day" again to see how that would work through. The film contains all the 'workable elements' of an Iron Mountain-type plan: Massive destruction of infrastructure, population reduction, a fast-forwarding of technology to new levels for the survivors, and the 'defeat' of an external enemy. Here all this time you thought you enjoyed the film because it included Will Smith and Vivica Fox. Maybe it's a truth leak.
Another - and admittedly more readily achievable - alternative would be the letting loose of a 'killer disease' which would do for healthcare what terrorism did for the military. Under this scenario, you'd some up with something that would destroy existing institutions, reduce population, increase governmental control over individuals, and move survivors along toward a higher tech future.
Gee. Wonder where I've heard that kind of health scare being talked about recently?
Eyes & Minds Seeing as we're on that topic, about 32.1 million people watched the latest round of "Health Care Reform" on television last night. That better'n a 36% drop from the president's previous address to a joint session of congress. --- Not to offer too much television programming advice (although I know it won't be taken, even if correct): In TV-Land, if you do reruns with only subtle variations on plot using the same actors, the ratings usually fall off over time. Guess last night sort of proved that programming axiom. --- The Obama PR department might take a cue from American Idol which is changing Paula Abdul for Ellen DeGeneres. Can't speak for you, but watching either seems preferable to watching Glenn Beck go after the latest Obama czarist appointee, Cass Sunstein.
No offense to Beck, but I hardly watch Obamavision anymore. Too much song & dance. At least with Idol, there's an orchestra...something C-SPAN and congress might consider adding. Seems musical chairs in this administration really deserves a little music, know what I mean?
I know times are tight, but even a small combo like Emeril Lagasse uses can be cost effective at adding some audio accents. Maybe we could dig up Doc Gibbs' agent's number for the folks inside the Beltway.
God knows, they've got to find most of talking-head TV as boring as the rest of us. If we were serious about having good government in America, it would come with a Government Ratings Bureau. They're not doing very good song and dance without it.
Cooking Up The Next War Now that I've broached cooking things up this morning: The BBC headline that "US and Russia diverge over Iran" is certainly not shock to our referential integrity, is it? --- The big story behind the scenes is that Israel's Bejamin Netanyahu took a no-longer-secret quickie trip to Moscow to announce his intention to flatten out their nuclear project in Iran. We hear that was followed by much yelling, gnashing of teeth on both sides and Netanyahu's quick flight home where the Israeli media is all worked up over being left out of the loop. --- All of which leaves us with a couple of scenarios to ponder as we await the release of next week's planned "Shape of Things To Come" report from www.halfpasthuman.com. The difficulty in the predictive linguistics work is trying to sort out whether we have the economic crash around the 25th of October, then a week of building to huge tension over Israel's plans to bomb Iran, OR if the economy crashes about the same time as the bombing raids, and then we go saw-tooth/building tension for a week or so, as the world watches to see if Russia will 'go glass-factory' on whoever bombs their nuke plant. More in Cliff's report next week.
Just don't be taken by the shock & awe of it all when it shows up. It's not like we haven't been holding up calendars and screaming about "Big Changes here!" around the October 25th date. --- That Netanyahu was selling attack plans in Moscow is all over the place in Israeli media, although the US MainStreamMedia (MSM) clearly doesn't get it. Well, gosh, like that's new. Also see: "Dude, Where's your Prime Minister?"
Markets Modestly higher open coming. Today and Monday are Robin Landry's peak of peaks days as the .382 retracement in both time and price has been met. Could we go higher? Sure. Will George play it? Nope. Have fun.
--- snip and save section --- Coping: Glacial Speed of Truth An interesting email this morning from a friend in Israel - worth sharing since it may be indicating something of a change in regards to 9/11:
Sorry to hear about the sore throat - glad it wasn't something more serious. Yes, this is a fascinating change of tone to note. Please keep up apprised of next week's report... thank you!
Anti-Gravity Gets Real Say, if you've got a 10,000 gallon tank of liquid nitrogen, 60-miles of copper wire, some fiberglass insulation, and a kid who dropped out of college engineering because the 'Class was too slow for me..." have I got the article for you:
If the deadbeat kid is really so smart, challenge him to build one of these gadgets, big enough for your and the spousal unit. bet it would beat a waterbed, LOL.
Politically Correct Training Bureau have to hand it to the UrbanDictionary people - they come up with some goodies. Minimum age of a girlfriend if you're a guy? "Half-your-age-plus-seven" is their advise. (*My lawyer insists I add provided the result is greater than 18 in most states. Which is what he gets the big retainer for.) --- Speaking of which, that reminds me of this from a series of lawyer jokes that was making the rounds on Thursday:
And this one:
Ah, such graceful use of language.
Speaking of Getting Screwed... Remember a couple of weeks back I mentioned all those outfits down in the Gulf of Mexico that were busy capping off wells? Seems there are reports starting to surface explaining "Why $200 oil is just around the corner" - but then you knew that was coming, right?
Screaming "Uncle!" Time Wrestling season is almost here - the time when folks who file quarterly tax estimates have to pony up. Having just sent a check big enough to pay cash for a well-equipped Altima with enough left over for dinner out in Paris, we're back to eating beans again to save up for the next one.
I keep calling TurboTax support to ask "Isn't there some way to write off the education money I keep sending my kids?" They seem to be getting smarter from their ongoing schooling, but the National Bank of Dad hasn't hit the Fed bailout threshold yet and IRS doesn't seem to want me to keep writing them off in perpetuity...
Starving for Content Guatemala declares 'state of calamity' in order to work on food & hunger problems. So, if you needed to "find your motivation" to go out and work on your fall garden this weekend, there it is.
Thursday September 10, 2009 Hungry for Famine News? Having been proven right in my latest silver flipping strategy, and with mostly boring economic numbers due out, we can turn our attention this morning to some rather frightening headlines that probably won't hit the MSM [MainStreamMedia] for a day or two.
Recall that in some of the longer term predictive linguistic values we keep seeing references to food shortages/famine/death of 1-billion + in the next couple of years. From past experience, the farther ahead of time something appears in modelspace, the larger it turns out in real-time when it shows up in the here & now. Which is why I found the BBC article on the Irish Potato Famine and how a "Killer gene cause potato famine" to be so interesting. --- Given the rotten growing conditions for some crops up in the Northeast this year, what if the mutation we should worry about isn't flu but instead is something like a plant disease?
This is not just an idle "Gee, what if...?" kind of question. It's a damn serious one right now and if you don't plan to be one of those 1.25-billion people due to die over the next couple of years (mainly from starvation) then pay attention to stories that aren't in the mainstream. Here's one in the Southeast Farm Press: "Are wheat varieties losing disease resistance?"
Not exactly an academic question, since you already know (or should) that wheat rust (UGG-99) is slowly working its way across the Eastern European steppes and recent research is lowering the yellow rust ratings of certain kinds of wheat. Not mainstream stuff:, but you'll find that story on the British Famer's Weekly Interactive site under the headline "Top varieties' yellow rust ratings crash." --- To be sure, the shortage of honey bees hasn't killed us off - yet. Nor has the die-off of ladybugs. Ditto the "British Columbia bears during from salmon shortage."
No, it's not MainStream yet, but give it 9-months. Food's going to become a big deal. A really, really, really BIG deal. Meantime, back at the MSM...
Trade This Curiously, one of the things to decline in this morning's trade figures is export of foods, feeds, and beverages, down $400 million this month. Exports of automotive vehicles, parts and engines was up $1.3 billion. More? Sure, you bet:
Stock futures are pointing to a lower open. Bye-bye high nigh? (Looked interesting as it fled my fingers, but you may not have had enough coffee yet to enjoy it, however...)
Foreclosures Hurting Despite the happy-slant headlines, the nations foreclosure rate sucks and Treasury says millions more are in the pipeline.
More candid: "U.S. foreclosure near record, peak in late '10: report". Worst is yet to come.
Gee, wonder where you might have heard that before?
Defending them Poppy Fields "Nato chief warns against early Afghan exit." Of course he would. He'd be out of a big important job if there weren't wars being constantly whipped up. No, we need that (barren, God-forsaken hunk of) land for something. Didn't we learn something from Russia's ten-year disaster there? Nope. --- Oh, WTF, no jobs here if it was over, anyway. Besides, doesn't this slow China some how? Just sayin...
Last of the Terrorist Meme A note from Cliff about the hijacking (old fashion terrorism) that wraps up our window of September 7-9 nuttiness, which was capped off by the Mexican jet hijacking on Wednesday drew the observation "Aha! Distributed meme!"
Yup: sometimes predictive linguistics come as a single event (like the NE Power Outage hit a couple of years back, or the Sept. 3/4 earthquake with the buildings falling into foundations) while other times it comes distributed as in the flurry of disappearances and this flurry of terrorism-related headlines. --- By our software-driven time libretto, the next interesting headline should be a 'surprise' storm causing some relocation of people and a Katrina-like outcome in the Florida/Carolinas kind of area, but I just don't see it yet. Hopefully, we'll be wrong and weather will be fine.
Sticks and Stones Department The headline that "Obama heckled by GOD during speech: "You Lie" during his standup before congress last night comes as no surprise. I mean, what city were they in? And weren't they all elected? ;-)
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Government's Youth Corp Shades of 1930's Germany? "US Girl Scouts prepare for war, pestilence" as the government enlists Girl Scouts to combat hurricanes (am I the only one who read Wizard of Oz about what happens with little girls and the big winds?), pandemics, terror attacks, and other disasters. --- Now, don't get upset here, but there are a couple of different ways a student of history could 'context' this. Put on your thinking cap for a minute.
A student of history might flip open to the Wikipedia entry about the Hitler Youth (Hitler Jungen, or HJ) movement of the 1930's:
On the other hand, one could more positively look at the last Depression and wonder if this might not evolve into a feeder-program in the offing for a more benign mass social program. Perhaps it could feed into a new/retooled Civilian Conservation Corp 2.0 to deal with unemployment when the second leg down becomes apparent over winter of this year.
If you look at where vocational schools are training, the corporatization of farming, and the ever-increasing use of automation to produce basic goods, we can envision of country where workers are in rapid decline, and the professions are ascendant. To where instead of a shopkeeper economy (where the baker sells bread to the shoemaker, and so forth) we instead end up with a professional shopkeeper society, where the dentist sells orthodontia to the police, lawyers, and accountants while 'security' is the new flexible demand employer. Same outcome, but it will at least have a college degree in something-or-other and the ruling klassen will still have something to rule. ---- In a strange way, I'm mourning the loss of the US financial products industry. Oh, sure, China might not honor paper derivatives they figure was sold dishonestly, and yeah, that collapse of the derivatives market is gathering steam even now, but keeping the kids busy could be important. It'll give us grownups time to go stand in breadlines, to get our shots, to get our coupons.
Some vision of the future, huh? --- I think it's fine for Girl Scouts to be involved in their community - just as it's fine for Boy Scouts to be involved in community. And I think it's by golly Jim Dandy fine that Homeland Security does 'training' for ministers and pastors lest free thinking break out in pandemic-like fashion.
All I'm wonder is "Where does all this lead?" "Are we on some kind of path here?" "Does anyone have a plan to reindustrialize America, or are we gonna be calling India for tech support forever?"
Two
questions I won't ask: "Was that purple finger paint made
in the USA?" And I'll keep my question about whether we're
lining up to be Gog or Magog to myself and
refer you to other web sites to study of that one. You may not know who Marc Widdowson is, but he's got a blog - with occasional postings on "History & Society" where there are occasional snips about DAT - Dark Age Theory. This is something that sort of evolved from the site "The Coming Dark Age" which hasn't been active lately, but which is still worth some head time.
Some of the titles on Widdowson's site are intriguing by themselves. Example: "Issue du jour 1: War with Iran--important to containing China but delayed over two years" and "Issue du jour 2: The world economy--unbalanced, interwoven, delusional--some predict its unraveling." --- Like the www.firstmonday.org site (another one of my favorites) The Coming Dark Age, Jay Hanson's www.dieoff.org and [killer_ape-peak_oil] distro list, there are sites on the web that do a much better job of contexting current affairs than the MSM.
That the government is cozying up to the Girl Scouts means something - but just what, I'm not clear on. But stay tuned...I've got this queasy kind of feeling that we're gonna find out all too soon.
New Flu I see the Dog Poet has discovered "The 9/11 Fish Head Flu Pandemic."
Shrinking Steel and DNA I think we're onto something big (or is that small?) with my discovery that 'shrinking steel' and 'shrinking aluminum' is involved in the manufacture of small aircraft like Cessna 150's and certain kinds of imported sports cars. Here is another reader who has encountered the same phenomena:
Best I can figure it, this 'shrinking metal phenomena' is highly DNA-selective; maybe that's what the shape memory alloys (SMA's) were that were 'purportedly' recovered from the Roswell UFO crash in 1947 were all about.
You remember reading how the 'memory metal' from that crash site supposedly had hieroglyphics on them that we undecipherable? What I've pieced together is that those glyphs actutual contained a warning that read something like this:
Seems that some DNA's don't react with this class of alloys. Elaine, for example, doesn't seem to have much trouble getting in and out of small cars or flying sardine cans. Her DNA includes some northern European and a touch of Cherokee. "Memory fabrics" also react favorably to her - she's still got some clothes from high school that fit and that was some (classified) number of decades back.
My DNA must be special - that's all I can come up with. Not only does metal shrink in my presence, but in feats that would be the envy of Eastern Mystics, you know, the guys who 'materialize rose petals' out of air? That's nothing. I can materialized 5-10 pounds by simply repeating the word "Cheese Danish" three dozen times. (Just writing materialized 6-ounces.).
What I'm working on now is tracking back to the source of expanding ink. Not the stuff that is used for writing paychecks - or more often nowadays unemployment checks. No, I'm talking about the ink used for deductions and holdbacks. That's the magic stuff. Keeps getting bigger. It's also used for printing up property tax forms, dental bills (especially for crowns), and I've caught the whiff of it at Wal-Mart, Brookshire's, and Kroger's checkout stands. I think the factory rep for the stuff has been through town.
Contrary to what Homeland Security and the Centers for Disease Control might try to convince you with the fear-mongering headlines, the real gravest threat facing America comes from this shrinking metal and expanding ink phenomena. It's been in place several years - which is how we go to where we are today. I'm sure of it.
Already we've got suspects, too. For example, there's a ring of four pitchers for double-A ball club San Antonio that combined for a no-hitter baseball game. We were tipped off by the headline "Missions Pitchers Throw Zeroes". We want to know where they got all those zeros. Maybe it's not the PowersThatBe we should be looking for. Maybe it's the PrintersThatBe.
Wednesday September 9, 2009 Most people are willing to swallow - hook, line & sinker - the notion that there's some kind of an economic recovery underway. However, the latest figures out in the Federal Reserve's consumer debt report (a/k/a/ Consumer Credit G.19) shows that the amount of debt being created had started to collapse again in July.
A couple of things may drift to mind of even unaware people upon a quick glance at these numbers. But the major one is pretty darned simple: America has been a consumer driven economy. What's this? Consumer credit is dropping at a pretty good clip, says this Fed report.
So let me ask you the Big Ugly question: "If the consumer isn't driving, who is?" --- Its upon seeing numbers like this I regret not making a better career choice earlier in life: I should have been selling highly specialized inks...you know what I'm saying?
Moody's Blues "Moody's says U.K., Spain to retain top credit ratings."
George says "No one wants to be the first to comment on the emperor's new clothes. You seen Spain's unemployment rate? Who in their right mind would retain "top credit ratings" for a country like Spain with 17.9% unemployment? Whatzzup with that?" --- The Bloomberg story contained this comforting reassurance:
Oh? Then how come I read on the Forbes site last night "The Dollar Collapses"?
Well, maybe not yet - just need to stave off them Moody's blues. --- Maybe the G.19 Fed report hasn't sunk in yet. What's the olde Depression Era saying? Oh yes. "Good times are just ahead!" (But keep a roll of Charmin handy just in case.)
Speak of hitting the fan here shortly, help me wheel out the white board, will yah?
[Market] Geometry Class OK, I confess! I sold a couple of silver commodity call options at exactly the peak in the silver market yesterday. Why? Too much hype about gold going through $1,000 for my tastes - and with it, silver gaining. Just to be clear, however, I didn't sell any physical, just paper because there was easy money (the paper & ink kind) was for the taking there.
Quite often I've noticed (and so has my commodity guy JB) that triple witching brings odd surprises and with triple witch next week, I'm willing to wait for a nice 'beat down' in the metals before reentering option positions on the long side. (*This is NOT trading advice...just my lunatic compulsive options gambling streak that has evidenced itself elsewhere in my life in the form of women, fast cars, fine rum, sailboats, and airplanes. The rest, I waste.)
OK, on to Robin Landry's latest bit of research for his colleagues in the professional investment world. You know, the dozen or so guys who did see this coming.
Think that's cheery? Then try this...
Currency Crash Possible He's not a sourpuss, just a realist: Nouriel Roubini: A currency crash is possible.
Yes, I'd like to be back into the silver options before - not after. But I'll take out with dough over losing my shorts (profits) any day.
Armed & Dangerous
Since I got up early this morning and have the calculator warmed up, I'd note projecting out an annual run rate for this year would put 2009 NCIC checks up in the range of 13,614,000, which is an increase of only 1/10th of one percent compared with last year. Pencils out to about one gun per family over the past 11 1/2 years.
Know what's really strange? Gun background checks dropped almost half a million the year after 9/11. Go figure. Some for both sides of gun rights in this one, I suspise.
Those Terrorism Linguistics While there was a fair amount of terrorism gnashing about around the 'hot date' September 7/8, this note to the HPH crew from India had escaped my notice until this morning:
More when the next Shape Of Things to Come is out next week. But that 'surprise hurricane' is for the east coast, not west if my recall is any good. --- Also worth reading: "Is another 9/11 set to unfold?" Discomforting thoughts there - along with this latest from 'The Dog Poet' under "We'll all be Rewarded when the Sh*t hits the Fan."
Landry's market markers/possible turn dates coming, the linguistics, the eight-years after 9/11 and references to American Hiroshima. Nope, I don't like it one damn bit. Won't fly till next week.
Cane Coming? Linguistics have been pointing at a 'surprise hurricane' from September 13-15 in the Southeast/. With any luck it will be nothing more than a processing artifact, and Tropical Storm Fred is not likely to be 'it' because 'it' is probably too far away to show up next week. But a reader cautions...
So will we...
Bye-Bye Paychecks Don't have an account set up for direct deposit? Don't want a debit card in lieu of a paycheck? Might not want to apply at Wal-Mart - they're doing away with physical paychecks... --- An uncomfortable numbers of companies are doing away with paychecks lately, come to think of it...
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Coping: A UFO Report Critic We continue (when real work doesn't intrude) trying to sort out the UFO stories coming out of China. What has come through in some translations as a sighting from Plum (Purple) Mountain of 40 minutes of HD video of something located near the sun, is also being reported as Chinese scientists planning to stody 40-minutes of high quality sightings in their country.
As luck would have it, a Prague reader of ours who was in China for the eclipse (I call him a Praguematist) says in so many words - the craft between the earth and sun report just doesn't hold up:
Early translations aside, there's still this little matter of 40-minutes of relatively HD video of UFO's in China top be explained away.
Say, you don't suppose that since China now holds most of the world by the financial nuts, pardon that, the interdimensional interlopers have decided China would be where contact will happen, do you? Guess we blew our chance in Washington D.C. back in 1952, huh?.
Sadly, if they're looking for intelligent life on earth, 'spect you know the answer to that one?
Psst! Want to Buy And Auto Company? Here's your chance to pick up goodies from a couple of Delphi steering manufacturing plants in Alabama. Just the auction to hit (bring a trailer) if you've been thinking about knocking out NASCAR frames in your garage, don'tcha think? Why, you could built custom rack & pinion steering racks with all this fine high end equipment. Name your new chassis outfit Rack & Roll, for me, would you? Or, with the option composite body onboard, how about "Racked & Loaded"? --- But seriously: Why hasn't some Southern stock car frame shop been named Wholly Rollers?
Peoplenomics Feedback On this week's Peoplenomics article on how to set up and use free-to-air television as part of your communications back-up plan a reader offers this:
And a darned good one. The easiest format you're looking for is probably BPSK-31 - or simply PSK31 for short. Commonly used ham radio mode - just like internet chat. Except, of course, there's no internet involved. About 50-60 words per minute fast enough for you?
To receive PSK31, you need an HF radio with a BFO (better: product detector for CW/SSB signals) and an interface between your HF radio and computer. I use the Tigertronics SignaLink USB interface which you can get many places including DX Engineering's web site. About $110 by the time you get shipping and a radio cable. Oh - the mini-CD that comes with the Tigertronics product also has programs so you can move around slow-scan TV pictures - again, no internet needed.
Around The Ranch: Getting High For the first time in nearly a decade I strapped on a little Cessna 150 Tuesday morning just after writing my column and started the biennial flight review process to get current in little airplanes again. Over the course of an hour, which included flying over Uretopia Ranch (which is damn near invisible in the trees, even from just 1,000 Ft. AGL - not even worth trying to shoot pictures of it), a couple of high bank 360's, a couple of departure stalls, and four survivable but rusty landings, I got back in touch with one of life's simple pleasures, although it's not one of the cheapest. --- Cessna 150's have shrunk a fair bit since I last spent much time in them in the mid 1970's. According to my logbook, I had four landings in early 2000 in a C-172 and had gotten current then. Must be a disease that periodically flares up, this idea of escaping earthly bounds.
C-150's and its beefier brother the faster sink-rate Aerobat were once easy, jump-in-and-fly machines. Nowadays, however, it takes several minutes to get in and looks like an exercise show; me propped up on the left gear strut step with the left leg and trying to remember how to stuff both legs into a sardine can. Was this why I had transitioned to the much larger C-172's a couple of decades back? --- My instructor, a very patient retired 767 driver, volunteered to vouch for my flying to Elaine any time, but I'm not too worried about that for a month or three since flying in East Texas even in this part of September is something best done before 10 AM, at least flying a sardine can which feels like it's been over a fire.
Unlike rotten weather flying in the Pacific Northwest, which had its fair share of perils such as mountains and military control areas, East Texas has a different problem: everything looks the same. It's all the same...mile after mile of nondescript trees and fields. From my earlier flying and sailing days, I dredged up what I could remember about dead reckoning.
Palestine Municipal Airport isn't presactly flush with navigation aids, although the north-south runway is long enough (5,005') for even a returning middle aged person able to find it, or at least so's you'd think. Once about 15-miles north of the airport though, it all sort of disappeared into the hazy late summer morning even from down low at 2,000 feet.
I'd studied the sectional chart and found a old low frequency ADF (automatic direction finding) beacon on 375 kHz right at the field, but it didn't do any good since this particular trainer didn't have an ADF receiver in it. The ex-767 drive/ CFMEI in the right seat wasn't the least bit concerned, having good familiarity with the VOR/DME approach [variable onmi-range/distance measuring equipment] off a radio beacon we could hear.
Still, it got me to thinking about the idea of buying a small automotive moving map for my cross-country flying refresher. Seems that's be a lot more cost effective than either buying a new airplane with a current IFR certification, but dual VOR's, one with glidescope, a moving maps GPS (with WAAS) and an ADF that would point to the field would sure be nice.
"Head over that way - toward that clear spot and what looks like a water tower down that way," he advised with a gesture to the southwest. Sure enough, a few minutes later, the field was right where it should be. Didn't seem to have moved too much.
I'm trying to schedule a return match for next week, but before that happens I've got three items on my shopping list: the cheap GPS, several dozen simulator approaches so I don't over-correct on flare out - the sardine can is lighter than a C-172 - and yoga lessons so I can get in and out of the thing. Funny, seems like my sports car has been shrinking in the past year, too. Or, at least the doors are.
One other thing I noticed: the 930 doesn't take nearly the work as the flying sardine can to hold altitude within 50'.
Tuesday September 8, 2009 Thousand Dollar Gold Returns Yee of little faith....it was just six months ago that Elaine was asking me "You know that gold coin of ours? Shouldn't we, ah, sell it?" Like the doggedly serious long-term investor I am, I calmly announced to her that I was not wrong in predicting the rest of the world would sooner, or later, come to value gold much higher, but it would probably take some time. "Just be patient dear, I know what I'm doing..." Everyone was else was wrong.
To be sure, there was some logic to what she said - and there may even be some reason t consider selling gold over $1,030 to $1,050 - and expect that one more good-sized pullback to the $ 700 range is possible before gold heads over $2,000 an ounce and maybe three to five times that on a spike down the road. But even with a pullback to such levels, I sure wouldn't want to be out of owning this one lone coin of ours. It'd be too easy to get 'caught out'. --- An article in the Wall Street Journal online under the headline "Gold's gains spell trouble for Seasonal Buyers" is worth a read. --- The accession of gold over $1,000 underscores that despite much of the Fed fear about a return to deflation economics that devastated the country in the 1930's, the Fed's plan - which is trying to inject just enough inflation to offset deflation in case no one had explained it to you - seems to be working OK if you overlook a few monetary sins like having the Fed print up dough in order to buy our own bonds and such. It's that kind of sleight of hand that causes inflation at the monetary level and makes it appear that inflation is coming back, at least insofar as necessary goods are concerned.
I noted in a column this weekend that what America needs is a 50% bout of inflation anyway, so gold going to $2,000 (or higher) would be a sure sign of its arrival. To which a serious-minded reader asks:
OK, from the top, here's how it shapes up:
Let me tune this up my position a bit: I am not advocating a 50% inflation. I'm just saying that a 50% inflation is the natural outcome of government spending gone wild, dreams of bankers that allow them to create money out of thin air through a circular money-printing regimen like the Government spends, Treasurys bonds, Fed creates, which is so strikingly similar to check-kiting that it's not even funny.
What I'm saying - and I want to be extraordinarily clear about it is: That's where I think we're going. And if you doubt it for a minute, just watch the price of gold and see how the dollar does vis-à-vis other currencies around the world over the next few years.
Not that the market won't go up now and then - like today, for example. --- An AP article "New frugality is the new normal, by necessity" gets right to the heart of things when it says "shop til you drop" stopped... Not willing to call it a full-on Depression yet, the AP story nevertheless calls it the Great Recession. Close enough for home use.
An AFP story asks "Did Bernanke save US from another Great Depression?"
Ask me when the real unemployment rate is back down to single digits. It's nearly 17% now.
Even Switzerland has become more competitive than the US. Singapore and Sweden are hot on our tail. And with the UN pushing for a dollar replacement, in your wildest dreams, where does that lead? --- Oh....on your "Are you a lunatic?" question, can I pull a Spiro Agnew and enter a plea of nolo contendere?
They're Back... Congress is back in session. What's the old saying? Neither a man, his home, or his business is safe when Congress is in session? Financial reforms being stalled, so goes the economy.
Not Exactly Famine Yet, But... There is a global tea shortage developing as the "Tea Shortage to Widen 10% as India, Kenya Droughts Hurt Crops." Wake up and smell the famine coming...or switch to coffee.
Venezuela's Got Gas And since it's theirs not ours, they've done a deal to send 20,000 barrels a day to Iran. Why? Simple enough: In the big international game of cat and mouse (Iran playing the mouse) the US/Israel/West would like to have Iran turn off those centrifuges which could be making weapons grade uranium or plutonium. The West is hinting at sanctions and so if trade gets restricted, Iran is shopping 'free agents' to see what they can get - and in this case, it's Venezuelan gas.
"Surprise" Hurricane Word that a new 'tropical depression forms in eastern Atlantic" could be the linguistic reference to a surprising hurricane around the 13-15th. Or, could just be hurricane headlines around then...time will tell.
This the "Terrorism Event"? Linguistics, being funny little critters that they are, have a very hard time telling the difference between an actual event and an event in the public mind. Down at the archetype level, this distinction is really hard to piece out of words. The wall-to-wall news coverage about the conviction of three would-be bombers may fill the linguistic hole we'd been expecting. Or not. Time will tell. --- Suicide blast kills three at an Afghan airport. --- President Obama's message to school kicks has drawn a fair amount of ire from the right. Still, messages like 'wash your hands' and 'study hard' don't seem to me very likely to turn America into a land of Bolsheviks or bring down Constitutional law.
The Unanswered Questions The BBC reports that Russia has spoken up on that recent missing ship episode: "Arctic Sea Iran arms link denied" says their headline. Meantime, Russia Today is reporting that the port official who blew the whistle on all this has fled to Thailand fearing for is personal safety...
Whence Came Flu Our resident cartoonista, Rebecca Price, has been reading up about the WHO permitting the use of "mock-up" flu in order to be ready for 'fast-track approval' of new flu vaccines. But wait! Aren't those mock-ups made with real virus? And, if someone gets them, aren't they communicable? The mind boggles at the implications of the 'wrong answer' to obvious questions like these.
More from www.toon-republic.com.
Speaking Syringe Stabbings China has sent 'harmony makers' to the troubled province where stabbing people with syringes has gone viral. OK, a bad joke and not especially funny, but this is a two-Monday week, you know...
Wearing the Pants The recent "Sudan trouser ruling violates international law: U/N." --- If I was an alien visiting earth, I'd find such trivialities hysterically funny. Ever notice on Star Trek how everyone wears about the same thing? Speaking of which...
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Coping: The Day the World Slept Still I mentioned in yesterday's report that there's been a sighting and 40 minutes of high definition video of a monster-sized UFO between the earth and the Sun during the recent eclipse and the Chinese are all over this trying to figure out WTF it is.
This morning I got this email from a reader that (if case you're not aware of this particular quatrain from Nostradamus) you ought to read really, really carefully:
Quite welcome...The story is starting to be picked up elsewhere, like this one: "Chinese say UFO flimed for 40 minutes during Eclipse" but none in the West are mentioning the 500-miles size of this thing that is in the Chinese language clips that have been coming in from the www.halfpasthuman.com spidering for the next edition of "Shape of Things To Come" due out around the 15th, or so.
But if you look, the story is starting to 'get MSM legs' - it's even in the UK Telegraph now.
Worth Reading I've many times mentioned First Monday's fine review of things academic in nature and this month's issue has a particularly good article under the title "Reinventing academic publishing online. Part II: A socio-technical vision.".
Part 1 of the series - which deals with the limitations of feudal academic knowledge exchange and predicted its decline as cross-disciplinary research expands, - is one of those "Uh huh...seems obvious..." kind of things that needs widespread adoption.
Around the Ranch: Getting High This morning's report will be posted a little earlier than usual because I'm off to the airport to work on my biennial flight review. Dusted off the old logbook and even took one of the AOPA online refresher coursers as part of their WINGS program. My try to get a few snaps along the way and maybe even some 2-meter ham use between 9 and 10 AM... --- The MAKS 2009 air show is going on outside Moscow where some of those fancy new Su-34s and MIG-29's will be put through their paces. Nice toys if you're a government, but a little Cessna 150 gets much better mileage.
Monday September 7, 2009 Thanks to the predictive linguistics spiders, we've been getting some reports out of China that during the recent eclipse, the Chinese at what translates as the "Plum Mountain Observatory" got about 40-minutes of high definition video of a huge UFO near the sun. It also translates as the 'Purple Mountain' observatory.
How big is huge, you're wondering? Try about 500-miles across. Yep, that'd be a big damn UFO for sure.
So far, the story isn't getting too much traction in the West except that the UK's Daily Mail has spotted it too, along with some UFO pictures of closer to earth craft. And if nothing else, this puts China one big step closer on the path to full disclosure about what is - and what isn't - known about UFO's and their occupants.
Biggest fear on Wall Street? These guys won't be interested in our 'financial products. Gee, yah think?
Emergency Procedures Check We begin this week's report with several notes of a 'just in case sort' because whether the 'net is threatened by terrorism or the flu, it's time like a good pilot to go over our 'emergency procedures' around here. Besides, what better time than a sleepy holiday morning for a preparedness drill, eh?
First things first: If you are not able to get to the www.urbansurvival.com page, remember that you may be able to get through using our www2.urbansurvival.com address or even the www3.urbansurvival.com address.
If you can't hit any of these, the daily reports are available via the mirror site I maintain at www.independencejournal.com which also has www2.independencejournal.com and www3.independencejournal.com working.
Current subscribers to Peoplenomics should be on the lookout for email directly from me and the www2.peoplenomics.com address should be active by tomorrow.
The main reason for these addresses is that when a web site is blocked (for whatever reason) there's still a chance the www2. prefix will work where a 'plain'; www. won't.
What's To Worry About? Funny that you'd ask...
Fluey Schools
Meantime, the net continues to swirl with allegations that this flu is not just accidental. One site, for example, points to a purported 5-year old IBM (France) PowerPoint that explained how this flu would occur.
At least equally curious is the role of the World Health Organization which encouraged the use of so-called 'mock-vaccines'. The general idea was that by allowing drug companies to do 'mock-up's of live vaccines, the pharma outfits would be able to raise enough green monkeys, dog, or old coffee grounds - whatever it is they brew this stuff up in) in order to have enough vaccine when the biggie outbreak occurs.
As the WHO document itself says here:
Uh...yeah...sure. As one headline noted 8in the past few days: ""Mock-up" pandemic vaccines bypass genuine safety testing, turning population into guinea pigs." --- Meantime, the case for flying my own plane is being made as "Airlines ratchet up prevention to target swine flu." Apparently, such niceties as pillows and blankets are being stowed in favor of handy wipes. If I'm not gong to be able to snooze comfortably, I figure I might as well be watching flight instruments. Besides, no waiting in those miserably long lines.
Critical as I have been of excessive general aviation, if a two place plane can get mileage better than most cars, what the hell.
Terrorism Worries Tick Up As one could expect, increased fears of terrorism are floating around this weekend, since the president is planning an education speech tomorrow, the 8-year 'Venus cycle' has astrologers looking at harmonics off 9/11/2009, and the anniversary of 9/11 is just a few days ahead.
Out of North Carolina comes a report that an accused terrorism ring participant is 'on the run', so that bears watching.
Even more worrisome, though, is the report that a top terrorism suspect who has been 'under control' (house arrest) since 2006, has been freed apparently because the British government didn't want to have to reveal the means by which evidence was gathered on this fellow.
Even without the predictive linguistics noting this in elevated ';immediacy values' in advance of the next "Shape of Things to Come" report due out next week, the British case is noteworthy because is places the conflict between rights to a speedy trial in stark contrast to the need to prevent explosions and such. --- Perhaps nowhere is this conflicting set of interests more clear than a case where an American suspect is planning to sue former US Attorney General John Ashcroft over illegal arrest. That Ashcroft was acting in the wake of 9/11 was not deemed an acceptable reason to abuse prosecutorial powers, ruled the 9th Circuit Court.
May not be over yet, however. The government side has the right to a full Circuit Court review and failing that 9or going directly) the case could end up in the Supreme Court. --- Yes, the United States still has a no fly list although the other side of that is the 'registered traveler program'. If you ever miss a flight, or are denied boarding for reasons that aren't legit, you can visit the one-stop traveler's redress page that TSA has set up.
Or, you can start walking. --- One more oddity: "Obama may need sense of crisis to revive health care overhaul" says a headline. Just one more reason I worry about terrorism this week - it would just 'fit' with so many things.
Van Goes Called the 'green jobs' czar for the Obama administration, Van Jones has resigned. The republicons made a huge stink over Jones' reported signing of a 2004 petition to further investigate events of 9/11 - and given the reports/allegations/ and papers alleging Thermite residue being found in the building wreckage and more photo analysis.
Green jobs is an important area for the Obama administration - and I doubt that the republicons know how precious little time there is till famine happens and the global economy collapses.
Seems to me there's a time for debating and such,; but then comes the time to get down to work and try to get ahead of some serious problems America has and that includes the need to onshore jobs (the opposite of off-shoring to India and China) to build energy self sufficiency, and ensure agricultural self-sufficiency.
Sadly, if you find yourself hungry and walking in the next couple of years, you'll be able to thank both parties for putting power-tripping ahead of eating and grass-roots economic recovery. Which brings me to...
Replaying The Great Depression Nobel Laureate James Buchanan has endorsed a new study by UK free-market think tank the Institute for Economic Affairs that argues the Obama administration is making the same mistakes that were made in dealing with Depression #1. A key paragraph from the report:
I hate to be the bearer of bad news here, but as I see it, the day of the 'strong dollar policy' is gone. What would go the largest distance toward economic recovery in America would be a nice bout of dollar devaluation. Yup, that's right, inflation. Here's why:
Then put some dough into things like solar panel manufacturing, a mandatory refit of every home in America to bring insulation up to snuff - there's no end of real work to be done. Even a movement pushing a few federal bucks in the direction of local -sustainable -agriculture would be nice.
Fortunately, no one will listen to my suggestions; they'll just come out that way in the end, so rather than embrace the concepts now, we're going to go squabbling and arguing down that path anyway. Gold will soar, energy will soar, food will become dear or scarce, and the average person will ask "Gee, how'd that happen?" Which is why average people are just that: average.
Clear Channeling Down in northern South America's US supporting oil patch, I notice that "Chavez minister vows more Venezuela radio closings." His own private, clear channel, huh?
The Weak Ahead Truth & Consequences time tomorrow over at the (not-really-federal or we'd be able to audit it) Federal Reserve. That's when the bankster cabal tells us their take on Consumer Credit. Although some economists view this as an 'also-ran' some folks whose views I respect think this is the biggie/grand pappy of 'em all since it's not consumer credit that gets reported: It's consumer debt. The more debt we get into, the more in hock to bankers we are, the better the economy is bound to do since living beyond our means is the only way the economy can 'grow' in nominal terms.
If you're starting to sense the absurdity of that, congratulations. You could be an economist. sorry about the first part of the lesson where the first half of your 401(k) got wiped out, but bankers can't get the omelet without breaking a few eggs. Yours. --- China has already made its first big move away from US dollars - planning to buy $50-billion worth of bonds from the IMF.
Almost predictably, as our Second Depression unfolds here, the calls for punitive tariffs against China are showing up. Take the Buffalo News Op-Ed piece "Obama needs to punish China with import taxes."
Shades of the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act, huh? And you wonder why I am pessimistic.
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Coping: That Southeast Hurricane Sept 13-15 Predictive linguistics has its limits, as does any fledgling science, but the odds seem to be increasing that our predict major/sudden storm could hit the Southeast (Florida to Carolinas seems likely) around the 13th. And what's this?
The only reason I keep harping on this is that the language surrounding this continues very hot with displacement of humans/ "Diaspora" related language. If I were a FEMA worker in the Southeast I'd be getting lots of rest between now and this time next week, if the predictive lingo comes in.
Indo Quake Follow-up Our former Houston Bureau Chief, Bernard, writes this morning from Indonesia:
Note from the Editor In Chief (Zeus the Cat): "Wait! Where my pictures of the buildings falling into their foundations? Predictive linguistics say we should have some of that kind of visual....go out and push a building over and send us the snaps pronto!"
Danged uppity cat.
It's Labor Day Because... One of our goats gave birth last night. Right weekend, eh? Or is my sense of humor labored...whatever! --- I'm going to head back to the rack and saw a few more zzz's. See you tomorrow morning.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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)
read to me more like "Quest for the Magic Bullet" - in other
words, what were the formulas that worked during the first Great
Depression - a less formulaic starting point if you're new to
such research might be Charles Kindleberger's 
.
by Robert Bruner and Sean Carr and
,
rereading of which I've assigned myself in order to get the most
out of my biennial flight review.
: On the Accessibility &
Desirability of Peace" outlined the economic risks this
way:
