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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Sunday
September 20, 2009 17:00 PM CDT
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Radio Interview I forgot to mention I am being interviewed on the Dave Hodges show tonight at 9 PM Central on the Republic Broadcasting Network. At 9 PM Central, you should be able to hit the Listen Live button and hear. (gulp) me. --- Also of interest for Peoplenomics subscribers, next week Peoplenomics will start its full circle back to the land of sanity (such as chasing after paper with zeroes on it is) as we look at some of the JASON and other government data about the future as we ponder best uses of cash. I think you'll find the decision-making process interesting since the data is anything but even...
Where Are The Comedy Writers? 3,711. That's the number of bank branches that have failed since IndyMac in May 2008. This week, while the failure of two banks may not seem like much, it's still 27 branches of additional capacity that have been turned over as the weeding out/concentration of power continues in the banking revolution that's underway in America.
This week's changeovers?
...which between them had 27 branches and assets of (Where's my calculator?) $3.2 billion, or near enough. I'll have to look in again on the FDIC web site in the event that more are added. There is something of a tradition here that the FDIC closures, reorgs, and shotgun marriages are announced over the evening hours on Friday's after the markets are closed. Gosh knows, we wouldn't want to upset the market's apple cart, would we? --- The Dow closed out the week at 9,820.20 which means from last week's close the Dow has picked up 214.79 points and at this rate, your 401(k) might actually gain back a little bit of its former glory.
But, I wouldn't bet on it. The real game in the financial circles is for the people on top (ThePowersThaBe) to give you only so much hope - then dash that on the rocks of despair and walk off with the bulk of the loot. --- "What about the comedy writer's comment, Ure?"
Ah... I see the coffee is sinking in.
The reason I feel we need to discuss the comedy of the situation is that there's an air of Keystone cops evolving in economic coverage of late. Highly entertaining, like a cat chasing its tail, but not getting us much of anywhere. In other words, a lot like comedy of the slapstick variety.
To show you what I mean, consider that report out of California which got about zippo coverage in the MSM: "California's unemployment rate hits 12.2% in August." as reported in the LA Times. In more rational times, that would have been an "OMG, this is the Second Depression for sure!" context. It would have logically fit with the West Coast Ports Disaster - which I briefed you up on yesterday and in addition, with the 'ghost fleet" still at anchor of China - and the Baltic Dry Index sucking air, we'd have a logically consistent view develop: The economy sucks and except for some contextually improperly reported housing numbers, we should all be wringing our hands in woe with what's still ahead for America.
INSTEAD, however, we have seen a strange countercurrent of events this week. For one thing, a number of market prognosticators have been busily changing their gloomy outlooks such that the 'new consensus' is that over the next couple of weeks, the market seems destined (according to these pundits) to make a 50% retracement move off the March lows vis' the 2007 high.
In Washington, the policy response is "Obama calls for Finance Reform" while other coverage revolves around the administration being critical of 'big business ads".
If you're wondering "Where's the beef?" - on key issues like the additional 13-week extension of unemployment bennies, all you have to do is wait until next Tuesday according to the headlines out of the Detroit Free Press - which understandably watches the subject closely because of all the autoworkers who have been sidelined lately.
Bankers to the front of the line, corporations, you're next. Humans? Back of the line. Got it? --- That's why I've concluded that economic coverage is best done with a shot of humor and why comic writers seem to have taken over business editor duties at most media outlets.
The 'business news' coverage of what's an incredibly dire situation with the second leg down of the Second Depression at hand is being written like comedy/fiction with laughable lines like "Transparency!" and "Financial System Reform!".
These won't do a damn thing to bring back your once great 401(k), which by now has been reduced to a 201(k). ---- Having
made the decision this week to hang up my biennial flight review
until we're a little further along in the Second Depression, I
decided to pop $269 at Amazon and buy a decent 5-piece drum set
complete with cymbals. ( Gammon 5 Piece Drum Set Complete Full Size with Cymbals & Throne Metallic Blue
True, this is not the kind of set that I'd invite Charlie Watts over to play (although he'd be a genius on anything he decided to hit), but it's more than adequate for the two things I can play on drums: A really bad drum roll, which I plan on playing next week when the latest Fed rate decision comes out on Wednesday afternoon. And the next time I hear a politician come out with something like a call for "Financial reform!" I won't be limited to just writing (rimshot).
I'll also be able to supply one.
I may not have all the answers to what ails us, but since my old-fashioned ideas like 'sound money' and 'no offshoring' and 'reindustrialize America' aren't going anywhere, I figured it was time to change directions and at least contribute something to the current direction of economic decision-making both at the White House and in Congress.
(rimshot) --- The headline that Fidelity & Vanguard are planning an emergency bank for "Money Market" is one of those good news - bad news deals. The good news: Responsible planning. The bad news: Why they're planning...
Soft Selling Quakes? The report of a strong earthquake in Bali has me looking at some of the data that I put together for Peoplenomics subscribers a while back. In that data, I did a long-term study of earthquake sizes over the past 20+ years and sure enough, there has been a serious increase in the number of quakes of the 5.0 variety, and it became even more evident that 'something has changed' with regard to earthquakes when only the 5.8 or 6.0+ data was compared.
The earthquake here in the past day down in Bali brings the issue back into focus. The mainstream media of Australia is reporting the quake as a 5.8 event. Not that I'm the only one noticing -- a news tipster sends this:
I can think of many reasons why the USGS report would put the quake down as a 5.8: For one thing, sitting right on top of the quake, the strength might be mis-estimated (if that's a word...) especially if it were the shallow slip/strike variety. That this one was 71.4 km deep should have reduced the odds of that happening, though. Besides, the Swiss alternative source 'Red Puma') throws cold water on 'data spinning' theories with their entries:
18Sep2009 23:06:56.0 9.1S 115.6E 75 mb=6.1 M*GSR SOUTH OF
BALI, INDONESIA 0019 For now, I'm perfectly willing to file this as a 5.8, but that said, the increasing frequency of 5.0 to 6.0 plus quakes in my long-term study may have to be revisited one of these days, since it just 'feels' like there hasn't been a decline in the data; but you know how impressions and data can be at odds, eh?
Eminently Missable Headlines When discussion of healthcare reform started off a couple of months back, it was initially discussed on its merits. But can straight-ahead thinking rule anymore? Not hardly.
Since then, the gullible public has been drawn deeper and deeper into the mellow drama of it all with first the healthscare industry saying public health systems don't work. Not quite true.
Then there was the whole blow-up over health care rationing and how government would decide who would live and who would die when - also not quite true.
Then we had the whole "Washington has been taken over by socialists" meme which is regrettably way closer to true. Especially when you read how Cass Sunstein reportedly argued at one time that presidents, not Courts should make policy interpretations.
And this morning we read "Obama: Health care anger not motivated by his race."
Once again, I find myself waiting for something to come up that will actually get to a vote not through some back door appropriations shifting, but something where the administration will put what it wants out in (transparent)( public view rat her than weaseling things around.
Till then, I'm waiting for them to throw in the virgins, apple pie, and kitchen sink into the debate. Oh, and toss in a blender, too, because that's where what should have been a rational decision-making process seems to have gone.
Paybacks on Missile Deal Oh oh. Defense lobby ain't gonna like this one: "Russia scraps missile deployment after Obama cancels missile shield. " --- Don't worry, though. War never goes out of style because why? There is no intelligent life on earth.
(rim shot) {shot of el Don for breakfast?}
Net Neutrality While all the emotionally charged stuff has been going on this week, the FCC is planning to introduce rules on Monday which would shore up sadly endangered 'net neutrality'. You may recall that the telecom industry - in one of it's big pushes during the Bush Give Away the Store to Big Business (offshoring of critical jobs, etc) - wanted powers that would enable industry to control what went on the internet and thus be able to tariff things in a much more financially rewarding way for guess who? TPTB.
In what should be cheered by defenders of freedom/free speech, the FCC's proposed rules may be a positive step - we'll see next week.
But like the Great Yogi said, "It ain't over til it's over." I'm sure there's a few kitchen sinks left over in Washington that haven't been used in healthscare - so maybe telecom will figure out how to charge up the net neutrality argument so people will argue for their own restrictions on freedom. --- Telecom's other troubles: Retroactive immunity for telecom spying for government may be jerked.
Blithering Media The headline "Fox News ad draws Protests" in the Washington Post is worth reading.
But how to file this story is going to keep me busy for several hours. I don't know whether to file under "Media" or "Media on media" or "Media on media on media" or....
(rimshot) [Damn these drums are a good release - I live out in the toolies, so no problem slamming drums around at 6 AM. Don't try this at home, however, if you live in town unless you feel like you need a SWAT team for an audience...] --- I won't say which national news headline aggregator site is doing it, but how many days are they going to keep the headlines about "Putin praises Obama" stuff up? How old is that? Don't look now but some people are bright enough to figure out that how long an anti-Obama story runs is a key indicator as to a media's slant this way or that.
It's all what we call a reach & frequency calculation. A small story which hangs around for what is this, three or four days now? - has more frequency (thus programming potential) than an adverse big story which runs one day only.
Reach and frequency calculations are key. So when Fox runs their stories about the Tax March in Washington x number of times and other media run the story x/20 times, that's how slant or bias can be seen by the alert. A one-liner, one time, has way less impact that a 3-minute standup repeated hourly.
But hey! It's not news they're writing anymore, it's comedy
(rim shot) --- But seriously: Did you see any coverage of the 9/11 protests on American media this past week? Probably not. But Russia Today's coverage? First rate/ --- Ask yourself "Why is Russia covering news that American media ought to be covering?" The answer to that is distinctly non-funny.
The Only Surprise Is.... Certainly not the headline that "Justice targets Bush Cabinet official in probe." No, the surprise is "Just one?"
We are So Screwed Dept. "Birth Control could help combat climate change" is the headline. --- My logical extension of this: If we eradicate ALL humans, we wouldn't have climate change issues. Makes sense. Send others first, though, wouldja? I'm not volunteering. I've paid 45 years into Social Security and I'm not leaving till a get a piece of that back, thanks.
Back to the Serious Work Love to chat more, but I've been working long and hard on this week's Peoplenomics report which may be posted as early as this afternoon. It's working title: "The War Across Time" and thanks to a seemingly well-connected source, we may have not only the answer to the questions posed by the story over on Rense.com "What Is Gallium At 110 ppm Doing In Phoenix Air Samples?" but a whole lot more.
If you want to think of it as the Grand Unified Theory that explains everything, don't miss "The War Across Time" this weekend... facts really are getting stranger than fiction.
--- Send your comments to george@ure.net The UrbanSurvival Mall: Peoplenomics This Week: How America Was Hijacked: The Corporate Coup d' Etat We begin with a discussion of the pricing mechanisms that have facilitated the corporate coup in America especially via the Supreme Court as evidenced in a case returned to a lower court last week that seems destined to further expand corporate supremacy over humans. We'll demonstrate using options pricing theory how the corporate will always trumps regular humans in government policy-making. Our second article projects future relative values of gold, stocks, and real estate for the next couple of years - some simple investment choices become evident. Then on the lighter side, a discussion of hyperchroniacs and how that may actually have some solid grounding in science. Except for one little catch: It implies the world getting weirder than it already is. But first, let's go buy us some government... MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Maxa-Cookie Manager No, when you tell your browser to 'empty your cookies' of web sites you've visited, it probably won't get them all. Why? Because there is a whole class of 'browser-independent' cookies that will gobble up space on your hard drive, but more important is they will sneak out information about you without you being aware of it. Ever week I get emails like this one:
Test drive it free by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will be $35 bucks. Is your privacy worth it?
Once you try it out, click the
upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35
unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive
'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer
may run faster. I've taken
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time...
Feeling Thorny? Want to be a thorn in the side of the Old World Order? Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course....
"Live on $10,000" Updated I've told you in the past to order my ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less..." with the rationale that "We're all going to live it shortly, anyway." Don't know as you have looked lately, but the unemployment rate is up more than 3% since I wrote the first edition of that book and underpasses have never been more homely. Worth ordering? Just visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click this little whizzie...
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left... Click here for the index and details. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday September 18, 2009 Fear In Washington The headline that "Pelosi chocks up warning against political "Violence" exposes the raw nerves of the country which are becoming more exposed due to growing pressures on the American public, including the continuing debasement of our currency, the banker-run housing bubble that has resulted in a collapse which has dropped home values 31.4% since May 2006 (S&P/Case-Schiller Housing data, seasonally adjusted series) and a growing trend of federal encroachment into States' internal autonomy (see story "As Federal Bureaucrats Take Over America" following).
Both political parties are responsible for the collapsing state of the economy, and despite the handover of bailout dough to the bankster class last year, it's only just this week that congress is getting around to voting on an extension of unemployment benefits. But to the millions out of work, this is only 13-weeks of extension -0 hardly a nation-saving move. Moreover, the special treatment given the bankster class underscores where Washington's true allegiance lies - the expansion of the rights of the corporate persona, including freedom from liability on many fronts, while calls opposed to special interest legislation go unheeded.
What do the people inside the Beltway expect? Cheers while the drive America (Constitutional America, not this lawyer-cobbled up patchwork of laws that pass comprehensible decades back)? What about a simple flat tax instead of a wildly abused tax code? Genuine federal investment in critical infrastructure? --- The entire global economy is on the verge of collapse. Not only is the U.S. dollar in serious doo-doo, but there are continuing indications that "Protectionism rising despite G-20 vows on trade" and other indicators.
Tech-ticker has an interview with former banker Charles Morris about "America's Two Trillion Dollar Meltdown" and he, for one, is skeptical about how serious any recovery will be; more bumping along the bottom is what he sees. "Bankers are not really lending yet, and if they do want to lend, whom can they lend to?" --- And its worse than the spew of jingoisms from Washington.
The latest batch of TEU data from the Port of Long Beach just out shows their container traffic is down a whopping 21.7% from last year. What's worse? While imports are down 21.9%, the outbound loaded figure is down a full 26% which means the balance of trade picture is suffering continued asymmetry.
True, the Port of Seattle August container traffic showed a rise of 5.4% in August this year, but the odds of Seattle hitting its all time high of 14-million + metric tons of cargo (set in 2005) this year are somewhere between slim and none.
Nor is Seattle's blip a coast-wide phenomena: The Port of Portland's container volume was down 14.5% from 2008 (the previous month it was down 18.5%) but compared with 2007, Portland is down almost 22%.
The Port of Los Angeles showed a 19.32% drop in loaded inbound, while loaded outbound was down only 14.22%. But just so you don't get the wrong idea for your balance of trade musings, keep in mind that even with the lesser decline in exports, Los Angeles still runs only 31.7% export trade; the rest is inbound. --- Is the Speaker of the House right to be worried about 'violence' in America? We've been seeing the words "revolution' pop up for more than a year in the predictive linguistics work out of www.halfpasthuman.com and if I'm reading it right, the Speaker has every reason to be concerned.
As Federal Bureaucrats Take Over America No one that I've seen has given adequate coverage (read: any coverage) to another case of the federal government usurping States' Rights. But here's what's going on:
Effective June 30 of this year a new law went into effect that mandated that all commercial vehicles in a state that were 26,001 pounds gross vehicle weight were being required (with a few exceptions to 2012) to get USDOT registration numbers and display them on their sides even if the vehicle was not used in interstate (between the states) commerce and was used only intrastate (inside a single state).
The key distinction that I see here is that not only are the feds assuming power over interstate commercial (I won't argue that) but they are now also assuming the right to tell people inside Texas as well as another 49-states that they MUST register their big trucks even if they never cross a state line. Where were the Feds when we were leasing state taxpayer-built roads to foreign corporations, WTF? --- To me, this is just about the clearest evidence I have seen (at least so far today, LOL) of federal encroachment into States' Rights, yet the right-spin-wing media which I would expect to be standing up to creeping federalism has been strangely mute on this - probably because it was passed when the right spun wingers had control in Washington, don't you suppose?
As I've maintained many times - the battles that matter are not the left/right BS that crowds out the real news from the MSM, but the up/down, little guys vs. big government battles - and many of these pass unnoticed, unchallenged, and undisputed. But this is where power shifts first.
For now, the mandatory vehicle weight is 26,001 pounds. Want to place a bet how long before that's lowered to encompass the 3/4 ton farm pickups or the 2-ton dually used for a service truck? More than just another way to get $40-bucks a year for federal processing fees, this is about one thing: control.
And no one shall resist, since the big guys set precedence by rolling over first.
We fight the wrong wars, don'tcha think?
Where's Global Warming? Not to sound like a broken record, broken record, broken record....but: "Arctic sea melt still heavy, but no record." --- So once again, to recap: Bad data (from errant instruments and heat islanding as discussed earlier this week) and now the ice is not setting records, which we all know has more to do with the sun not coming out of its cyclical low sun spot activity as expected. Gee, what will we do for a new financial bubble if there's no way to strong-arm 401(k) money into buying ethereal carbon credits to fund retirements?
Heaven forbid we'll have to get local and sustainable, huh?
Kid Tracking If you're a parent and you have worries about where your kids are, check out the new GPS kid-tracking watch. Gee, maybe Big Brother really can track your family, huh? --- Based on all the divorce and court drama crap on TV I don't know why they haven't launched his & hers versions for people in untrustworthy relationships...
--- snip and save section --- Coping: With Reader Feedback A good thing- at least now and then - to go through emails...so here we go:
Whatever treaty are you referring to? The NATO Treaty? Look: Let's put it all out there. The Obama administration is getting slapped silly by right-wing media that is seizing upon almost everything they can to undermine the Obama administration. Fair that - that's how politics works.
But let's look at the NATO reaction and what do we find - unspun? "NATO chief hails missile defense "positive step". I would expect that Anders Fogh Rassmussen as the Secretary-General of NATO would be the first guy to bitch if this was a NATO-weakening breach of "agreed upon treaty", wouldn't you agree?
There are plenty of times that pragmatism is no fun. While I'm not perfect at it, I can see the budget ramification of the decision clear as daylight. The prequel to the decision came back in August when the Government Accountability Office said, in so many words, that this was going to be a black hole that would suck up dough. --- SecDef Robert Gates has, I think, done the right things this week giving power to make decisions over things like the ugly Washington Football - the big pending Air Force tanker deal - back to the guys who will do the driving with the simple caveat "Do it cheap". --- Sorry, but I gotta stick to my position on this: The Poland/Czech missile systems were a financial calamity in the wings which the defense lobby has done a masterful job whipping up the campaign contribution right over. But besides budget, and as I mentioned yesterday, the nature of threats is, and has been, changing. Nowadays it's the close-in issues that can change the world.
I trust you saw the report in the J-Post this morning that the Israelis are concerned about close-in threats, too? "IAF chief: We must stop S-300 Delivery". That's a Russian-made surface to air missile and (along with the S40 variant that evolved from the original system) its specs are impressive:
So while the missile shield decision this week might be grist for Obama-haters (which seem in infinite supply, BTW) the more pragmatic view is to solve the close in problems first and those involve Mideast security issues like the S-300 and the closer-in SS-N-22 Sunburn series. --- I'm almost ready to bet a beer that missile system components played a part in the recent Arctic Sea controversy; you remember that ship which went missing for a while after leaving Russia with a load of 'lumber'? Don't know if you noticed this week, but the "Lawyers: alleged Arctic Sea pirates needed help" says an AP story.
Selling Fear
(Hmmm...Elaine or Zeus the Cat?...whatever...)
Yeah, when you step back far enough and look at the news, you can sure see the patterns of a meme war going on. On the specifics of swine flu memeering, while I am allergic and have the doctor note, the reality is that if the 'fatality rate' of the swine flue were demonstrably 10-25 times that of regular flu (its not and if anything it's less so far) then I might risk a reaction IF it were shown to be effective prophylaxis. However, over the past 50-years, I have seen - if anything - an inverse reaction to flu shots where the people I personally know seem to have gotten flu at a higher incidence level if they had a shot.
So pardon me if I back out of the histrionics here and sit back with my spreadsheet and watch. What I'm looking for in the data (and I haven't found the definitive poll yet) is the one that shows inclination to take flu shots by political affiliation.
Or maybe swine flu is just a republicorp plot to killed off democorps.... If I've got the stats anywhere near right it's about 196 deaths from more than 40,000 cases of swine flu so far and the antivirals are still effective.
Like I said, I am in a low risk group (having had flu many times over 60 years) and I get to sit back and watch the data. On one side, we have under-tested flu (e.g. without adjuvants added to the trials) and on the other there is a none-zero risk of mutation.
To my way of thinking I can kick back while the rest of the planet makes up my mind for me and mania on both sides is infinitely amusing. If the flu morphs to where it's an 80% killer (although that might mean a high burnout rate, like some of the hemorrhagic fevers) and if my risk of adverse reaction is 50%, that's a different decision than 50% risk of reaction and 0.014% risk of death from flu.
I don't have enough personal energy to waste getting (to use a Brit term here) my knickers all twisted up over it. As the Dudeist priest says "Chill."
Cost-Sharing Airplanes Now a more practical stuff:
1) That's too far to drive to the airport. 2) There are some things I just don't believe in sharing: Women, any of my tools, or boats, guns, fishing tackle, or airplanes. Come to think of it - if you invest in any of these, don't share them! The results are awful. --- Even when it comes to sharing books I tend toward a checkout system. Trust everyone, but "Where's my book?"
Construction Nightmares Like we didn't know this was going on:
And we should be scared of them. Audit the Fed!
Chemmies and Hurricanes Ah, this is a good one:
Still doing research on chemtrails, but it figures into this weekend's Peoplenomics report on how certain military programs may be involved...
As far as the "Surprise Hurricane" - glad to report that sometimes the web bot project gets some things wrong. We did have a lot of press this week about year-ago hurricane activity - plenty of that fore sure.
Also this week, there was a lot of discussion oif the 'hurricane over land' as one Alabama TV weather dude put it as he was describing the extreme rainfall which has been going on down here in the South. In fact, so far this week here at the ranch we've had almost 8-inches of rain.
Up the road a short piece - in Tyler, TX which is the closest "official" weather station, we have had 6.95 inches of rain dropped on us this month compared with a normal 1.66 inches month to date and by three-hundredth's of an inch, we are now normal.
Whatever the hell normal is in East Texas. Last year at this time we had 42.44 inches YTD. Thursday September 17, 2009 Can't Afford An Arms Race Word this morning that president Obama is scrapping the Bush administration's dream of a missile shield with bases in the Czech Republic and in Poland is being signaled by some to be a 'victory for Russia's Vlad Putin.
to be sure, there will be some rabid commentators who will bemoan this as somehow abdicating America's defense, but a more reasonable look at the playing field suggests a far different view.
For one thing, the nature of threats to America has changed. Almost any country with a decent military could be a threat to America. A missile shield would be useless against, oh, North Korea, or religious extremists who could attack America using terrorism's traditional toolkit, or an old freighter steamed into a major port and blown up. The percent of containers on cargo ships that are inspected for NBC weapon potential I hear is still very small.
Moreover, if there was a country where longer term a missile shield might make sense, it would be in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea because China longer term has much more potential to cause America great harm. So strategically, the missile shield while it might be a nice bonus for a couple of defense contractors, wouldn't really do much to ameliorate the threats to America. Rumors of Russian subs off America's coast a few weeks back were maybe a reminder of that to the Obama crew from the Russians, there's no telling for sure. But a missile shield against SLBM's? You can't be serious.
Then there's the question of What can America afford? Seems to me the national shopping list ought to be extension of unemployment benefits, job creation programs, some kind of healthcare reform, but not a corporate payoff, and then we still have a nearly infinitely expandable war in the Middle East which seems to run from Iraq to east of Pakistan if the headlines are a clue. --- Treatment of what appears to be a quite rational decision, at least to me, provides a fine opportunity to assess how this media, or that, expresses its political leanings, however. For example, framing the decision as "Putin Victory" or "May Embolden Russian Hawks" could be taken as alarming.
"What about Iran as a threat?" you may ask. Well, if Iran's missile technology was to be considered a serious threat, putting a 'shield' 1900 miles down range on a line to London doesn't make much strategic sense to me, since Israel is inside 800 miles.
We're still on track for that crisis to pop into the public mind in a big way around October 25th, although it may take a week or two from there before the lobbing of you-know-whats starts. The article "To bomb, or to nuker? Israel's Iran choices narrow" is either a prequel of building forces, or a weather report on the chances of war resulting. The AP headline that "Israel says Mideast not ready for nuclear arms ban" means Israel is not about to shut down Dimona until Iran's centrifuges are gone. Not shut down - I mean gone.
Housing Still Soft New numbers from the Census folks on housing are out this morning - tad better than expected:
So where is the financing coming from?
Capacity for Thinking, Phony Rally? Not getting too much play was yesterday's factory utilization report (G.17) from the Federal Reserve.
Industrial production was down 10.7 percent, which broke out as consumer goods down 4.1 percent while business equipment just plain sucked: down 14.7 percent while construction was down 18.5 percent. In short, nothing was up.
Capacity utilization was down in every category except utilities, which was up 1.8 percent, but overall, capacity was down one-half of one percent. I don't pay too much attention to the utilities utilization, since that could be viewed more a population-driven number than an economic activity number, know what I mean? --- This morning the US dollar posted a small bounce in the early trading, while gold softened a bit. But the guess is that the US dollar will fall farther, regardless of the very short term picture. --- A couple of other rumbling to keep your ear to the ground on: A source at a healthcare outfit which insiders sometimes call Acme & Acme is rumored to be planning big layoffs in the wake of Eli Lilly planning to reduce its workforce by 5,500 between now and 2012.
And one of my consulting clients (that makes 99% US product but gets a couple of things from Asia) is wondering: How long before US industry is hampered by the lack of printed circuit boards and other component-level items that used to come in from China and elsewhere?
Fine question, that - but the answer is simple: That's precisely the kind of JIT system dynamic that will push this into a double-dip recession despite what the happy talk from inside the Beltway would have you believe if you were just a little more gullible.
Oh, related: "Former BHP chief Gilbertson says World Faces Shortage of Metals."
Rally On Despite the deterioration in the fundamentals, the degree of excess to the upside seems unabated. Robin Landry's latest note to colleagues in the investment profession seems on point:
A difficult thing to watch, but it does put the nail in the coffin of "rational market theory" doesn't it?
Searching for News A reader asked this in an email this morning:
Search Result here. Yep. They're dead, alright. What's more telling about the MSM however is that when you put the search "Four Apparent Suicides/Deaths in 48 Hours" into Google you will kind all kinds of references to this development, but when I click "News" on Google to narrow it down to specific sources in summary form, the story doesn't come up. Does this mean sites like www.dprogram.net, www.blacklistednews.com, and www.whatreallyhappened.com are not considered 'news' by the Googsters? A little paradigm defending, anyone, or have I just asked the question wrong? I'd just love to sit in on that search engine policy meeting as a mouse in the corner... Where's that line between being 'media' and blogging set? When one trips over one body - or when outfits connect dots? Wonder if those meetings have more lawyers than journalists on hand... I'm sure the major search engines would index financiers jumping out of windows...either one at a time (or as a single group-jump), but four bodies in different places at different times? Does proximity count? Is it not 'news'? I dunno. Sure would be cool to know how the line is drawn since it would give us insight into the social paradigm, wouldn't it?
Op-Ed pages of the MSM get indexed as "news" - why not equally (and often better) informed sites that specialize in dot-connecting and analysis? Can't hurt to ask...
And Now the Bizarre Stuff "Snake born with hand shocks scientists" is a good starting point. We all knew politicians were DNA-crosses with something, but this seems to prove what.
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Coping: With Numbers That Don't Make Sense This has been kicking around the net for a few weeks, but in case you haven't read it yet:
Golden Future One article you'll want to be sure and read is the one "Go for Gold" Inflation is here and going to get "Much, Much worse," Pento says."
Around the Ranch: Rethinking Flying Speaking of numbers: Happened to be down at the local airport (KPSN) on Wednesday. Weather was really crappy and time was limited as I was working on my biennial flight review. Got in a couple of landings, but the weather was right down at minimums. While we were waiting for the ceiling to lift a bit, my instructor and I got to talking with a fellow who flies a pipeline surveillance plane - goes all over the country looking for leaks and problems.
What made the conversation interesting was this fellow - besides his company plane - used to have one of his own and he dropped a big hint about the cost of ownership: "I figured it was somewhere between $150 and $200 every time I took it out of the hanger..."
Oh-oh. Time to start working up a spreadsheet, since only a couple of days earlier I had gotten to seriously investigating the cost to buy a locally owned IFR C-172 - it's on the market for $38,000 - far more than I would have expected based on the prices over at www.-trade-a-plane.com. In fact, about twice what I had been thinking.
I came home and started to throw estimated costs of ownership into a spreadsheet. The results haven't been pretty, so far. --- The idea of buying and old (but reliable & safe) plane and "Barnstorming America" still sounds appealing, but the spreadsheet is telling me it's a loser - and why I didn't run numbers first I guess reveals a personal deficiency (fear of measuring toy costs?). It's easy to ruthlessly run spreadsheets for a client and make cold, calculating decisions for others.
But it's quite a different task to apply the same benchmarks to myself, I'm finding.
The good news in all this is that it has given me a fine idea for a Peoplenomics column one of these days: An analysis of hobbies: Costs to pursue, paybacks for achievement, and time & space required. Don't recall having ever seen one of those. I've got an outline of it called "HBO: Hobbies By Objective".
If I had done this first, I might have left the pilot logbook sitting in the drawer. Where it wasn't running up costs. --- This morning's report is a tad shorter than usual because my main internet pipe is down and I'm on the half-speed satellite backup system.
Wednesday September 16, 2009 CPI and the Keynesian Myth: Inflation Before we get into this morning's BIG number - CPI inflation - a word first about what inflation is - and is not - since most people have no more seen 'inflation' than they've seen 'transparency', 'accountability', and 'change'.
The myth begins in America in the aftermath of the last Depression when people of all stripe were called on the carpet to explain what went wrong. One of the most 'sellable' views was that the general level of prices had declined (deflation) as opposed to the general level of prices going up (inflation). The terms were seized upon since they were perfect to pacify the masses, remembering that socialism and several other 'isms' were getting widespread discussion at the time.
I had a reader a few days back write to me and argue that my comprehension of the Fed's role (in hijacking the nation's money creation process for their own usurious ends) was somehow deficient. His argument was that inflation didn't really get going until after the Great Depression.
While such simplicism would be nice (as it leads to single bogeyman problem solving) the fact is that something which cost $100 when the Fed was created actually cost $172.73 by 1928, (using the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator here - you can try it yourself), such that we can see 72.73% inflation is less than 15-years prior to the Great Depression.
The problem of the first Depression is that from 1929 to 1934, the general level of prices fell, not so much as economists argue because of generally failing prices but because of our old friends excess consumption coupled with tighter credit creation. The net effect was a 27.6% increase in purchasing power - which was secularly experienced as a 27.6% reduction in the general level of prices.
Despite the misleading testimony by various so-called experts, the first Great Depression can be considered the cumulative impact from two major trends: 72% inflation in the preceding 15 years and massive unemployment due to excess agricultural production since it was after WW I and into the Great Depression that millions of horses (and associated feed lands) were sidelined due to the arrival of the internal combustion tractors to propel farm equipment combined with substantial personal losses averaging approximately $485 per capita in constant 2009 dollars. Jobs went away and pricing power with it. Pretty much everything else is hyperbole. No demand for horses? Let's put that land into crop use. result: Excess commodities and collapsing prices there, too. Prices collapsed, mortgages weren't met and what had been the Roaring Twenties because what I call "One Over Virtuous cycle" - wherein the reciprocal of the conditions of the boom led to the new bust.
Kinda like now.
Just as we had an overly productive farm industry emerging in the 1920's, so too have we just experienced excess industrial production in America of both the numeric / unit volume sort and the virtual type. The numeric / unit volume type came from factory automation where the robots of the auto industry while the 'virtualized' type was the offshoring of jobs so that rich people could make wage-rate differential spreads between low paid foreign workers and higher paid domestic workers and pocket the spread, arguing that there'd be no Devil-to-pay in the end since "Things are different this time around."
Maybe - and maybe not.
While it's true that the actual short-term cost of the Second Depression so far has been much higher, about $650 per capita, 2009 dollars compared with $485 per capita in the 1930's debacle the reason that we have not yet realized the present times as the Second Depression is actually thanks to the efforts of Ben Bernanke and the Treasury because they have so far used the difference in financial mechanisms available today to moderate, or at least delay, recognition of the Second Depression such that the human despair element hasn't started to cast a pall over the country; at least not yet.
There are a couple of reasons why this is so. In case you've forgotten, they include:
Whereas the First Depression was really biting in two years after the Crash of 1929, the Tech Wreck's victims were papered over by the convenient arrival of the Twin Towers 'terrorism' attack which literally overnight invented something bigger than all the spending on the Civilian Conservation Corp and the Works Progress Administration of the 1930's: The modern "War On Terror." This has also served to mask the effects of the Second Depression by breaking up families, providing fuller employment than would otherwise be the case if we were occupying two foreign countries and sniffing about for others. Funny how coincidental the timing all works out, isn't it?
So with this as an historical background, a quick rescan of the latest Fed G.19 Consumer Debt report which shows that despite all of these best efforts of corpgov to power through and paper over the Second Depression, people still might notice things when they go shopping and are tightening up their purse string; this ain't over despite the talking heads..
And that gets us to this morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report just out from the Labor Department:
While it may be true that prices are down the 1.5% mentioned in the last twelve months, the most recent three months shows an annual inflation rate of 3.3% when the numbers are run out.
So before you get all excited about energy prices being down 23% compared with last year, consider that energy was up 4.6% last month and gasoline was up 91.% and seems destined to jump nearly that much again since the energy pricing at the Produce Prices level was up 8% in the report earlier this week. So, you really think energy retailers are gonna eat 3.4%? (What did you put in your Wheaties this morning, anyway?)
Oh, thanks to all those paid for 'clunkers' coming off the road, used car prices were up 1.9% for the month.
New Bot Run Out The latest "Shape of things to come" is out from www.halfpasthuman.com. And already I'm getting emails with questions:
First, the Monday 15% reference was picked up from the reader email in Tuesday's report and no, I'm no authority in much of anything, especially woo-woo. That said, the warning about the PowersThatBe (PTB) trying to appeal to the 15% (or less) percent of the population that has high B.S. resistance levels by trying to make them feel "special like us" is a deadly serious anti-human play. The world's self-proclaimed ruling class/royalists/PTB/uber klassen are figuring out that their game of 'we play, we eat, you work' is being more widely perceived as unjust, so their next move will be to co-opt those who point out the immorality of their stance. No doubt, they'll get some takers. If you have no idea what I'm talking about, go buy the report here. $10-bucks. What Happened To Free Speech? "Lawmaker's 'You Lie' outburst draws House rebuke. But with a majority being democrats, what were you expecting, roses? Not that I condone representative Joe Wilson, don't get me wrong. But, why can't we have a little name-calling in congress? It's good theater, and besides, isn't 'free speech' one of this great Nation's cornerstones? Besides, it sells newspapers and bolsters old-line media sales - and they oughta be thankful for that...
Beach Blonde Warning If you use a lot of hydrogen peroxide, you might want to exercise a little judgment about what you throw in the shopping cart along with it, since the FBI is telling local police to keep an eye out for odd incidence of the stuff. Better bet: Clairol - or other hair coloring. And for disinfecting cuts and such? I dunno, bleach maybe? Probably would hurt like hell, but whatcha gonna do?
Obamavision Schedule Ah...now we see Obamavision comes to Letterman. Want more Obamavision? Try five Sunday talk shows. Uh...I'll be the guy with a book.
Will Obamavision outdraw Jay Leno's prime time draw of 18.4 mil? Or, do you care, either?
Speaking of Media.... You see where Rupert Murdoch is predicting the death of print media unions? Apparently, he's either seen Kindles (or had coffee with Jeff Bezos?) since now he's hailing those new reading devices as being able to do away with newsprint. --- If you go to the top of the UrbanSurvival pages, you'll find our daily reports as Kindling, too. I did a bit of research and use .MOBI which is read by other readers, too.
Rubber Stamping Although the "FDA approves a new swine flu vaccine" this week, pardon me while I ask where are the clinical trials with all the adjuvants that will be added to the post-trials soup? I'll take my chances with a slug of vitamin D-3's, Benadryl's and a pack of Camels', thanks. At least I'll have something to do.
Trashy Behavior Here's one you don't see every day Couple was robbed while...er...having an intimate moment in a dumpster.
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Coping: With More Junk in Our Air We have another curiosity which has popped up that somehow fits into the "War Across Time" discussion that we were having yesterday. It seems that NASA was planning to launch a smallish rocket to send up a cloud of aluminum dust to near space (100 km up) to learn about some of the highest clouds surrounding earth.
Wait a minute. Do we care? Moreover, as Peoplenomics readers will discover this weekend, the involvement of the Naval Research Laboratory is interesting to note.
Although last night's launch was scrubbed and is now planned for no earlier than Friday night the experiments are notable to those of us who are following the intersection of science and woo-woo. Just what the scrub reason "Our principal investigator indicates science does not seem favorable for a launch tonight. We are still counting in case things change" means is open to speculation.
On the science side the story is that this is part of research into a newish phenomena called 'noctilucent clouds' - or clouds that carry light from the light side of earth to the supposedly dark backside. Except the backside isn't so cark as it used to be. This has obvious military ramifications if you're in the night vision field.
But in woo-woo circles there are all kinds of other concepts that might plug & play here, including the role high altitude clouds could play in something like the reported Project Blue Beam. High altitude clouds? Projection of holographic imagery into a supposedly 'clear sky' in order for the NWO to fake the arrival of a messiah? All of which is far out stuff, to be sure, but if you have noctilucent clouds just right, laser interferometry might project something passable.
With last night's launch scrubbed, all we can do is wonder a bit: Is there some kind of war across time? Are the chemtrails the set-up for Blue Beam, or are they there to 'discourage' visitors from other places and times whose equipment might be interfered with?
No way of telling, we just don't have enough data. But, we can collect the data, ask questions and test fit this huge puzzle's pieces. Like we don't have anything else to do?
More Troublesome Data You saw where earlier this week I was explaining that much of global warming isn't warming at all, it's just bad data - and that's abundantly clear to anyone who has gone off and looked at the web site of SurfaceStations.org where you can see how laughably out of calibration the underlying data is.
So with this fresh in your mind, consider how absurd it is that the World Bank is calling for 'action now' on climate change. Just a little self-serving for the PowersThatBe, don'tcha think? Tuesday September 15, 2009 Screaming Energy Inflation If you've been following our ongoing comments about how runaway inflation is likely the preferred public policy option, at least compared to runaway deflation, you'll be just thrilled to see how inflation is coming up through the Producer Price Index figures just out today. Check it out:
While this pencils out to a 22.42% annualized rate, don't get too worked up until you look at the broader picture. So we drill a little deeper:
You caught that last paragraph? Ex-food & energy was up only 2-10th's of a percent for the month? Finished energy goods is the grabber - up 8% at the finished goods level for the month. --- Retail sales weren't all that bad - better than expected:
Ponderous stuff, huh? Unanswered: Are unit sales up, or is it just price inflation hitting hard? Drop by tomorrow when the August CPI figures are due out.
High In? If there's anything to the theory that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement should be in with the close of trading on Monday, since both price and time of such a retracement from the March low following the 2007 high can now been measured, then we should start to slide down toward the abyss here either today or tomorrow.
One session does not a trend make, although the futures early on were pointing in that direction.
Gee, what are the headlines that could drive the market back toward Dow 4,400? --- I notice that Politico is opining that "So far, Obama's failing miserably." Odd assertion, that, since Obama came into office with the Dow headed right down the crapper - given a good flushing by the Bushistas that led to the market low at Dow 6,627 in March. I'll stop short of accolades, though, since nine months isn't the length of this ball game. It's four years. --- The US Treasury has quietly announced that they need something like an infinite supply of zeroes to put on paper in order to keep the economic teeter-totter from sliding the wrong way.
If you really don't have a life (or are just dogging it at work), read the Treasury's report for September starting with:
Meantime, Tim Geithner says the Obama administration is against any middle class tax hike, but this leaves me worrying that any family with a combined income much over poverty will be upgraded to something above middle class.
Where's The Money? A reasonable sort of question might be "If Geithner and Obama are not gonna raise taxes, where's the shortfall going to come from?" Ah...simple answer that: Probably at least some of it will come from all those once-secret Swiss bank account holders who are lining up to get a little IRS mercy by playing 'beat the amnesty."
The Farce of Global Warming Oh, here comes one of those articles that's sure to make you angry: George isn't swallowing climate-change hype after reading this from a contributor and doing the follow-up readings:
Along about here, my email inbox will begin to explode with mindless 'me-too's' who will insist that climate change is real. To which, I'd hold up the carbon-trading scams and ask "Cue bono?" Who benefits? --- No problem with resource stripping, depletion, exploitation, yada, yada, but before we launch off as nutters with a penchant to regulate/usurp private rights on behalf of corpgov, can we at least get the baseline science right?
High End Squatter? There was a story a few days back about how a Wells Fargo exec had moved into some fancy-schmanzy Malibu Beach house that had been foreclosed on. This morning the follow-up headline "Wells Fargo fires exec over Malibu house scandal." Just making sure the pool worked, maybe?
Our Glowing Future The Wall Street Journal seems to me to be beating the war drums again with "Obama is Pushing Israel toward War" on their op-ed page. No, don't bring up Gaza, expanded settlements, walls, yada, yada, yada. That kind of talk is banned by 'Patriot' II somewhere, isn't it? --- Tomorrow's "Shape of Things To Come" should put a little better timing on our expectations, but with inflation in the energy sector and war drums beating, metals might do OK long term, jiust as I've been betting.
Race Relations Deteriorating? A St. Louis area student (white) being beaten on a school bus by several black students may be indicative of a change in race relations among today's youth. --- Again, the case for home schooling. Or serious self defense training. --- Has the pendulum swung so far that the civil rights movement from the 1950's & 1960's will be replayed the other way? Maybe it's just the rise and fall of imperial cultures, but it's sad when what have cultural icons grab microphones, too. Sensibly, president Obama has distanced himself from such behavior. But WTF is going on here? Are we all forgetting the 'play nice with one another' that makes complex society work?
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Coping: Research in the Gray Zone, Fifth Force of Nature "Care careful what you wish for - you might soon enough get it" was something a friend of mine once told me. Turns out, there may be a fair bit of truth to it. Some matters of 'high strangeness' have been throwing themselves at me for the past couple of days;' a kind of web-version of deep throat if his story is to be believed. But let me start back at the beginning...
Last weekend's Peoplenomics had a section in it where a phenomenal called "hyperchroniac's" was described in some detail. No, that wasn't a spelling of hypochondriac. The spelling is deliberate and relates to a piece of the predictive linguistics which goes to the idea of some people becoming aware of certain oddities about time. Specifically those small jumps and starts in what is normally the smooth & even flow of events.
A series of emails from a knowledgeable source, from a 'disposable' email address and even a 2:30 AM mystery phone call and the admonishment "I can never contact you again about this" is enough to pique any reporter's interest, especially having been blessed with a couple of such sources in my reporting past, one of which included the award winning story in the mid 1970' s about how despite the ostensible Cold War, the US had an active nuclear fuel rod materials trade going with Russia that involved the Russians refining uranium into hexafluoride, shipping it through La Havre, France, and having it ultimately arrive at the Port of Seattle facilities before going via rail to be fabricated into fuel rods at Hanford. Mysterious phone calls in the middle of the night from untraceable phones - that kind of thing. --- That was then - and this is now. But some things don't change. People who want to get information to reporters yet don't want to ever be backtracked can do that. There are lots of ways and the internet has made whistle blowing easier. That's a good thing...at least so it seems for the moment. -- About now, you may be wondering "What's the story, George?"
Won't get into it until I lay it all out for Peoplenomics readers this weekend and let them ponder it for a while, but the broad brush of it might be inferred from the working title of the piece "The War Across Time" and the mention that there really was a 4.5 magnitude earthquake two days before AF-447 crashed and that quake was at latitude 3.66 N which translates from the USGS decimal positioning to the search area near 3º 39' 39" N which may figure into all this.
That and the real "Arena 51" may not be in Nevada, but Maryland... --- Assembling the clues has been an interesting exercise, though. For one thing, my 'source' isn't too good at identifying aircraft since the A400M Airbus hasn't been delivered in quantity yet. More likely is the C130 Hercules unless I'm missing some huge slap-upside-the-head here. Seems likely my source just may not know the profile differences. --- That shortcoming aside, the student of the 'far out' should be able to sketch in part of the answer to the "What's really going on around here?" question by instead of asking "Who is behind this move or that in the daily flow of news?" to a more correctly stated "Who and when are they that's behind this or that news item?"
If you have been looking for overarching descriptive frameworks that may tie together all types of anomalous phenomena including UFO's, chemtrails, mysterious calls to politicians telling them what to do, and possibly events as far removed as mysterious plane crashes, my source hints that reading up on OLED's application to cloaking devices might be useful.
Are some of the days most 'out of place' and 'unexplainable' events part of a larger context - "The War Across Time"? No way to be sure, but at least a few pieces are fitting together.
It's all got me thinking back to movies like "The Time Machine" (film 1 and film 2) along with the 1989 flick "Millennium" and asking "Is it really possible that the answer to so many mysteries could be laying about in such plain sight?"
"Yeah, right George...it's all a load of crap. Can't be that simple or that obvious."
Maybe...but maybe not. I trust you caught last week's HUGE announcement from the Smithsonian that there may be a fifth force of nature which could represent a whole new range of engineering possibilities?
Remember those magnetic lines of force that made the iron filings organize themselves into a dog bone shape around a bar magnet? James Clerk Maxwell was talking about this force vector that lay perpendicular to magnetism in the latter 1860's/early 1870's in his lectures before Heaviside bollixed up the works with his 'simplification' of things. Now what's this? A fifth force (apparently subtle) that depends on asking the right question.
And so my research continues. If you thought the War On Terror was something, consider the implications of The War Across Time where defending the past in just a certain way leads to a future where small interventions in the past could have world-changing consequences in the future. All so neat, all so engineerable, or so hints my source.
The really hard part for the mainstream might well be acceptance that there may really be a kind of Unified Theory of Woo-Woo. Down here at the dojo of critical thinking, ("the WuJo") physics might have just opened an engineering door to something way larger than expected.
Unless you were a fan of the Twilight Zone TV series where (correct me if I'm wrong here) but didn't they mention this fifth dimension?
And there may be a war going on then and such that today's news headlines may very occasionally reflect past skirmishes. --- Most people don't remember the Air Force study of battle in 2025 "Owning the Weather 2025" grabbed most of the attention" - but there is a lot more to that study which has stuck in my mind and now makes a lot more sense, especially when odd emails and a curious odd-hours phone call arrive. I have to publicly wonder whether our 'history' can be made some how malleable to the future battlefield planner?
Does remote sensing and interdiction at some juncture involve time? Maybe not in 2025, but how about 2040? I'll share the source email for the question and explore some doctrinal issues for Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend.
In the meantime, tomorrow the latest "Shape of Things To Come" pops out from Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com Might be the future is sometimes a bit 'drifty' by design.
How are we doing, Professor?
Small Minds Don't Matter Given that woo-woo may have some basis in fact - since at least the outline of an engineered future is coming into view which would pull everything together into a nice, neat whole, there's still the fraction of the population which is deathly afraid that anything they didn't learn in school can't possibly be true. The ignorance of limited [bounded] thinkers gets to be a real pain on the 15% of humans (or whatever the number is) that are capable of multidimensional thinking.
Here's a note from a particularly frustrated single female reader who is quite well educated (PhD level):
There's an old defense of group think that's stated as "I have an open mind, but not so open that my brain falls out."
The kind of people who aren't willing to take intellectual risk to go out to the very edges of acceptable thinking and beyond are never going to make real breakthroughs in understanding how IT all works.
They are the modern day equivalent of the folks who wouldn't go adventuring in pre-Columbus times lest they run off the 'edge of the world'. "It's OK to go 500-miles out...but no further..." That's their kind of thinking.
There's a whole slew of 'old sayings' that come to mind. Things like "You can't get to second base if you keep a foot on first" or "Nothing ventured, nothing gained."
Cliff's described this gap between the unbounded human and the bounded human as a kind of 'unbridgeable gap'. It's like trying to teach a pig to sing: Isn't going to do much but offend the pig.
Not sure how to spot unbounded people quickly. Always seems to involve a lot of time and effort. But thanks for your note and I'm sure that some unbounded single guy will bump into your profile one of these days. Universe arranges things in its own sweet time, perhaps saving up for something really spectacular as a reward? We can hope, right?
Monday September 14, 2009 Radio Show Tonight Darned! Forgot to mention I'll be on the Jeff Rense show tonight ( www.rense.com ) and we'll be talking about (what else?) the economic geniuses that run the world so smoothly, LOL... hopefully they'll be up to speed from their server attack by then... Yeah, I know: " Open outlook earlier in the day, G..."
Looking Out Below I can think of maybe a dozen reasons to just say "screw it" and go back to bed this morning. With the price of gold beat down under $1,000 again - something I expected Friday, but this will do - the odds of a sustained press upward will likely have to wait a while. I mean sure, it would be nice and all, but there was just too much hype about gold last week. I bought tome grain options, figuring that there's less price elasticity in people's bellies than in their hankering for glitz or good dental work. Admittedly, that may be a bad call on my part, but we shall see.
The key economic feature of the week is triple witching. That's when stocks, some commodities, and foreign exchange all get up and play musical chairs. One way of guessing immediate market directions is to look back to the last options expiration (Aug. 21) and see where the Dow was then: The index options (Thursday's close) came off at 9,350.05 while the Friday session closed at 9,505.96.
Quite often, Mr. Market will take something like all the hype surrounding 'green shoots' and 'rally's here!" and turn it around on investors. Thought you'd make a fortune buying short term call options? Not bloody likely. Markets tend to have payouts that mime casinos (which are considerably more honest, since there's no such thing as High Frequency Trading of roulette positions, and no flash-trading at the one armed bandits); all of 'em pay out just enough to keep hope spinning eternal in the hearts of men (and women, too).
So if you are holding a pile of near-the-money call options - thinking your ship would come in this week, you should have skipped the waterfront and gone to the airport where Wall Street will be taking off with your retirement again. --- For openers, the US and China are conflicted over tire imports and chicken exports. The Financial Times story here does a good job of summarizing it, if you overlook their curiously Brit way of spelling tires - tyres.
But it's really only a smokescreen for what's really going on. The real deal is that US-China trade has already been dashed up on the rocks of despair as I've been harping on the past several months with my West Coast Port container traffic reports - which you'll be treated to again this week when the August stats come in.
As a refresher, the Port of Oakland's July numbers last month were down 10.8% from year earlier numbers, but 2008 was already down more than 6% from 2007 figures. I expect their August report will show a continuing decline. The Port of Long Beach was down almost 17% in July inbound containers, so it will be no surprise when you pick up the online version of the UK Daily Mail and see the headline (and picture, too): "Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession" staring at you. --- It has been more than a year since the collapse of Lehman Brothers - and in all of this time, next to nothing has been done to really solve the world's economic problems. "Why?" you're wondering?
The fundamental problem is that for the world's economy to really 'recover', someone has got to come up with a new 'game' to suck people into; ideally something where there's the prospect of at least easy pickings if not an outright killing to be made. Problem is, there ain't no such animal in sight. So consumer sit on wallets, velocity of money tanks, ships drop anchor, and politicians wring their hands being mostly mindless reactionary twits.
I told you last week, when it came out, that the ugly economic truth could be found in the Federal Reserve's Consumer Debt (G.19) report. If total consumer debt is collapsing presently at a -10.4% annual rate, where is a consumer-driven economy going to come up with a break-even sales plan, let alone any progress toward the Corporate Holy Grail -- Growth of Sales or earnings...just any old thing to hype down in Investor Relations?
What Al Gore & friends had been hyping as a 'new growth' area for the economy - Fighting Global Warming - has fallen apart because the sun has not obediently put on a major heating trend so we're stuck with conflicting headlines. The Chicago Times is headlines a "Report on global warming predicts dire Illinois consequences" - although their story failed to mention the role of political blabber-mouthing which here lately is one of Chicago land's growth industries and all that hot air has to go somewhere. Aspirin overdose notwithstanding.
An Examiner.com (Dallas) headline more reasonably notes that "Meteorologists continue top challenge global warming theory." The UK's Independent figures it right: "Global warming cynicism rises in face of stronger evidence" - something I've noticed with fewer people writing to me wanting to tax cow and goat farts down here on the ranch.
My point is we can scratch that one as a new source of revenue & reform. Since Health Care Reform is contentious, and since the politically active Right has turned out "Somewhere between 2 million and 60,000 People" for the Tea Party march this weekend in Washington, the Obama administration finds itself waking up to a Monday Morning Mess. --- So how do the PowersThatBe respond to the lack of 'fear factor' to galvanize the public into mindless compliance with their wishes for a mindless consumer economy that's politically pliable? Well, they trot out the some old headlines. This must be the umpteenth time I've read:
CNN-Money summed up Monday in a simple headline this morning: "Stocks set for grouchy start". Them, and me, too.
Looking at all the headlines that aren't getting traction, I look for the PowersThatBe to try and roll out....hmmm, what's not been overworked already...? Say, how about a new flu scare-line?
Nope: With all the public backlash building up to the flu vaccine, I hope you noticed how HHS Secretary "Sebelius: "Encouraging News' Regarding Swine Flu Vaccine" was making the rounds - suddenly the flu shots (plural) may become flu shot (singular). Unanswered is the question whether the political 'leadership' will be getting 'special vaccine' (without all the preservatives and additives of production vaccine). Or, aren't we supposed to ask? ( I've got a 60-year allergy history and a doctor's note. ) --- Like the market, I'm off to a grouchy start. I'm all set for a one year self-quarantine. You?
Call me when the Consumer is Saved, a 12 percent interest rate cap is slapped on the Banksters, jobs are being onshored, globalism is a swear word, and housing prices are going up. I won't stay up waiting for the call, believe me.
Just go flip open the NY Post site this morning where Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz says a year opn from Lehman "Things are worse." yeah, like our 401(k) reports weren't a hint...
Meantime, best I can figure it's "Look Out Below!" If you didn't pay attention to all our "Top's probably in!" rants over the past couple of weeks, don't come whining when the bottom falls out, because all you're going to get from me is "Told you so's."
Zombie Capitalism That's the outlook for the next 15-20 years from commodity legend Jim Rogers.
Not much more optimistic is this morning's report from my friend Rick Ackerman up in Denver: His "Two possibilities Bulls have yet to discount" is definitely worth noting. You'll see I'm not the only skeptic around, in case you need reminding.
Old News "More than 40,000 Japanese aged 100 or over: Survey" caught my eye. I kinda feel that old this morning myself. The world's oldest person died Friday in Los Angeles at 115. Old news.
Numbers Racket Since most of the headlines so far this week have been pretty damn boring, maybe I could entertain you with some clever prose about the importance of the Producer Price Index numbers tomorrow or the Consumer Price Fantasy due out Wednesday? Or, would that be straining our relationship?
Timing I see where Iran has agreed to last ditch nuclear talks about October 1st. Gee, let me guess: running the clock?
Chavez's Luck I expect that now that a "Huge natural gas reserve discovered in Venezuela" that US attacks on Hugo Chavez will be increasing. Why between the energy resources of Venezuela and the lithium deposits in Bolivia (along with their natural gas fields) there's a whole region of people coming into focus who we just really oughta be itching to 'liberate'. A nice way of saying "Bend some more over for the bankers. Get them in hock at 33% and up rates like the rest of us."
Chavez is just one lucky SOB - wonder if he buys scratch tickets, too? --- Now that Chavez/Venezuela is getting in bed with the Russians for a nuclear power plant, Chavez' strategy is clear: Russian Nuke Plants seem to come with a 'bomb and overthrow' protection insurance plan and Chavez was smart enough to buy one just like the clerics over in Tehranium. The name will make sense by Thanksgiving.
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Wow'ed By ESPN 3-D My consigliore called from Ohio last week to invite Elaine and I to hop in the plane and fly up for the ESPN weekend debut of it's latest experiment in 3-D entertainment. Except for the fact I'm only rated for VFR (so far), the weather was crappy, didn't have a plane, and haven't finished my biennial flight review I would have done it. Coulda, shoulda, woulda...you know.
But he sent along an absolutely sensational review of ESPN's 3-D efforts:
Actually, I'm glad I missed it. The sailing on the Great Lakes would remind me how much I miss living on a sailboat. I miss my old boat something fierce when the wind pipes up. However, every time I start to miss working to windward up Puget Sound at this time of year, I go out and stand by the goat barn in the rain and remember 75º and wet in a short sleeve shirt is a lot better than 50º and wet in Polartec... Nevertheless, the prospect of 3D television sounds pretty exciting - but will it save the global economy? I doubt it. However, I wonder if any of the cheerleaders had cellulite...would my consigliore have noticed? Ha! Renegotiating Life Had a nice email from Tom Weber this morning, announcing his new enterprise Strat D in New Zealand. Tom's a one-time Chicago area IT director who got out while the getting was good and decided to immigrate to New Zealand for a number of reasons.
First, and foremost, it was a country that his research showed was capable of being self-sufficient in food. It was a place where he could leverage his first-rate IT skills, and it was a place where sustainability was (and is) more than a mindless marketing phrase.
We chat every month or so - and have for what's over a year now best I can recall. Don't hold me to it, because it is Monday, OK?
Some of his insights have been really interesting. For example, in New Zealand, people can actually ride those small powered skateboards around - the kind with a chainsaw-sized motor on them - without being thrown in the clink or getting a zillion-dollar ticket. His description of the housing and public transit is pretty interesting, too.
Cycle Studies Note I see the Foundation for the Study of Cycles has come out with what they call a "2012 Survival Kit. Priced at (what else?) $2012. --- Not to keep grinding in the idea that there is no inflation (the Great Keynesian Lie), just money being watered down, did you know using the Federal Reserve's own data, that $2012 in today's paper would have cost less than $100 if you had been able to buy it in 1913 when the bankster coup started in earnest? $93.43 to be presact.
That was in the good old days. When money had a 'storehouse of value' function. Not sure what the remaining function of money is. If I ever get any extra to play with, I'll let you know.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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