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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
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October 17, 2009 07:10 AM CDT New
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The World's Longest Bank Holdup, Redux Boy, it's a good thing I don't write a long column (and sometimes not at all) on Saturday mornings. Why? because I think I'd need to call a medic unit if I did, so high is my blood pressure at reading how a bank has the balls to send out a credit card offer with a loan and cash advance rate of 79.9%.
OK, I admit it.....I was once almost sympathetic to bankers. Since we try to buy two items on credit at all times (to keep a credit rating that's perfect alive) I admit when we went shopping for a new used car for Elaine and our bank offered us 4.65% on anything we wanted, new or used, I thought bankers weren't so bad. But then along comes a story like this one.
Hats off to NBC San Diego for covering this travesty. Should we bring back credit usury laws? You bet. But, since the credit card chiselers figured out that could sidestep state limits by mailing their bills from another state (thus falling under interstate (e.g. federal) laws, the bankers have been printing up debt on consumers backs since the late 1960's. --- Once upon a time America was a land that made things, and we didn't have 10,000 people showing up for less than 100 industrial jobs with decent benefits. Since the landmark credit card decisions however, making financial products has become pretty much our sole national expertise. We've all gone a bit soft-headed while the banksters lay out the big bucks to keep their usurious hold on Washington.
Wonder why there could be something like the anti-WTO "Battle in Seattle" when the American Bankers Association meets in Chicago in 9 days time? Wonder why groups like http://showdowninchicago.org/ are planning to demonstrate against the banker agenda?
Surely, you ain't that dumb. If we see video out of Chicago of poor banksters being demonstrated against, you have only to look at foreclosures - and this 79.9% interest on loans and cash advances on a credit card - to prove conclusively they're bringing it on themselves.
Speaking of Bankers Behaving FDIC has reorganized the five branches of San Joaquin Bank as branches of Citizens Business Bank and they will reopen on Monday.
If you're keeping track of such things, which I do in Rain Man style, it's now 3,731 branches that have been reorganized since the nominal start of the world's longest bank hold-up (of their customers) when IndyMac went down in July 2008.
Since there were no closures last week, and only one mother bank closed this week, we can only assume that either a) FDIC is out of dough or b) FDIC is working on restructuring one of the Big National banks that they were offering $300-an hour to recent experience experts in bank operations to work on after extracting promises of non-disclosure. Not even a ticket till they got to the airport, so as to keep the destination secret since that might tip off which Big Bank was/is in trouble.
Like Elaine said at dinner last night: "Things are bound to get worse before they get bad." ---- Although it's been partial dismissed, the Wikipedia entry on Willie Sutton comes pops to mind every Saturday morning when I sort through the bank failing reports and look at what's going on in the industry:
Now let's take a walk out back to the WuJo for a second. The Wu-Jo is where woo-woo and Science do battle on the big Mat of Life.
I take it you've seen that something in the predictive linguistics due to go viral here shortly is the story that thousands of people are having the same male figure appear in their dreams? If not, check www.thisman.org. Notice the face that seems to be popping up in people's dreams, got it?
Now...go flip to the Wikipedia page on Willie Sutton. Am I the only one to notice some kind of resemblance? Is there some kind of...you know....bank robber meme going around?
Could be, since we're all in the midst of the longest bank robbery in history.
"Wait! In a bank robbery, money is taken from the people," you're thinking.
True, but it's the people's money that bank robbers take.
Why today, if Sutton was going for where the money is, he wouldn't go to banks. He'd go to Washington like the rest of his ilk.
Judge Suspends NY Flu Shots In NY a judge has halted the mandatory flu shot requirement for healthcare workers. It's only a TRO (temporary restraining order - what, you miss law school?) so the full meal deal will come up October 30th in court.
Flu Shot Side Effects A Washington Redskin's cheerleader has had complications from a regular seasonal flu shot. Video to check out is here.
Letter Versus Spirit There's a legal concept where differentiating between the letter of the law and the spirit of the law comes into focus. If you'd like to write a paper on topic, try the Friday Bank of America acquisition of Merrill for material.
Fund Fraud Feds have popped a billionaire on fraud charges related to a hedge fund. --- I know: Just ONE???? But, give 'em time....
Ad Wars President Obama, calling the health care industry's ads on healthcare reform deceptive and dishonest, is threatening to go after the industry's anti-trust exemption.
Anti-War Petition A group called Rethink Afghanistan is trying to get 100,000 signatures demanding study of alternatives besides war) to the Afghanistan situation. --- Pakistan this weekend is stepping up pressure on the Taliban.
AZ Gov Cuts I hear that state Department heads in Arizona are being asked to come up with plans to cut expenses by 15% as state revenues continue to fall. The Phoenix area real estate collapse may not be as big as Las Vegas, but plenty ugly.
Quakes First Hand Our former Houston Bureau Chief, now doing business in Indonesia has been putting up with a lot more shakin' & quakin' than he'd like. The latest USGS quake list is here.
His latest report just in this morning:
And yeah, the whole Pacific Plate seems to be more active lately.
Best of FTA Since we put in a free-to-air television rig (steerable satellite dish and such) we've been watching a lot of non-corporate media and some most excellent programs. Besides the content from outfits like Deutsche-Welle, Russia Today, and Al Jazeera, I've become quite fond of a SuroNews feature (on Megahertz TV) called "no comment'.
What they do is just run a minute or two of raw video. You know, what CSPAN does - raw video of congress and such? Except this is of news stories. So you can get a second of what it's like to be in a war zone or at a demonstration, public ceremony, or whatever without things being colored by the reporter's voiceover. Some is quite good.
But be warned: different than the pabulum. The Philippine flood video was quite striking.
Recommended Reading Still got some coffee left? Go read my friend Howard Hill's latest: on how regulators play Three-Card Monte which outs the career path of 'captured regulators'.
--- Time to take the 930 out for its once-monthly spin at 2-3 x the posted... a ham radio breakfast and a zillion chores follow - see you Monday. Still haven't used the Skip Barber calling card...the one they issue so you can call a lawyer, LOL
On Peoplenomics this weekend: A Chart talk about 'channeling'. --- Send your comments to george@ure.net The UrbanSurvival Mall: Peoplenomics This Week: The Day The Dollar Died Like it or not, I think it's time to start thinking the unthinkable about the future of the US dollar. In a paper "Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning", Jack Davis of the Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis makes a key distinction assessing "substantive uncertainty and strategic warming", pointing out that while "Identifying when, where, and how a declared or potential adversary will strike the United States directly, mount a challenge to US interest abroad, or make a weapons breakthrough is the highest priority of the DI’s current intelligence effort..." there's a different kind of threat - the strategic variety - given what I reckon to be underweighting in financial contingency plans. As Davis points out "A thoughtful senior policy official has opined that most potentially devastating threats to US interests start out being evaluated as unlikely." Do we now find ourselves in a world where the strategic failure of the dollar is being "evaluated as unlikely"? "Live on $10,000" Updated With another round of layoffs due to start later this month...a round which will start to axe many of the middle managers who have managed to avoid the HR grenades...might I suggest a preemptive tactical move? Voluntarily dropping your lifestyle back a bit, since we're all being marched down that road by either circumstances or some out-of-control-PTB types who write checks to Washington lobby and to anti-reformers in California! A good starting point, at least if you' ve still got $10-bucks is my e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left... Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Maxa-Cookie Manager No, when you tell your browser to 'empty your cookies' of web sites you've visited, it probably won't get them all. Why? Because there is a whole class of 'browser-independent' cookies that will gobble up space on your hard drive, but more important is they will sneak out information about you without you being aware of it. Ever week I get emails like this one:
Test drive it free by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will be $35 bucks. Is your privacy worth it?
Once you try it out, click the
upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35
unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive
'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer
may run faster. I've taken
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time...
Feeling Thorny? Want to be a thorn in the side of the Old World Order? Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course....
---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday October 16, 2009 BofA Losses Just as a guess here, I'd say tough on gold and tough on the Dow today as BofA losses are reported in the $2.2 billion range. Gotta wonder whether Merrill helped or hindered on this. But I have to admit, I'm confused by one quote out of the CNN story:
But wait! Something's not right. Isn't the Treasury and Fed keeping rate extra low? What's kept everything the bank has from rolling over to lower rates? See: This is why the search team for Lewis' replacement isn't calling me.... (He's planning to bail year-end-ish...)
Econo Gibber New State Personal Income figures are out. "U.S. personal income growth was offset by inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, which rose 0.3 percent in the second quarter after falling 0.4 percent in the first quarter. "
Wonder if that makes us tops or bottoms?
Well Shoots Although we may get a run up in the dollar shortly (see 'Coping' section today - that's a view not advice) that doesn't mean that times ain't tough. Take the headline out of Louisville: "10,000 apply for 90 factory jobs..."
Creative Statistics The headline in the Salt Lake Trib caught be off guard "A million jobs credited to stimulus plan." Yeah, right, and I'm the Finance Czar. -- The statistical trick here is using the weasel worlds "...or saved..." Thus, in hypocritese this means anyone who still has a job could be counted because that job was saved. Well, gee, maybe the Labor Department, the White House could share a statistics department. What do you mean they already....
Victims of War File "Rape case to force US defence firms into the open". --- Maybe I'm hoping for a little much. but wouldn't it be nice if all the money that was supposed to fund ammo and equipment for our US troops would go for the intended purpose instead of taking $2.6 billion out of the defense budget for pet projects like a reported $20-million Edward Kennedy educational institute?
Bar Hopping Harrods is selling gold bars now...
Climate What? "Mid-October Snow Shocks Tri-Staters." Worse: The early cold snap is beating up beets.
That's Dirty, Harry The tab for national health care will be over $2-trillion we're coming to find out in latest remarks from Harry Reid. --- As bad as blanket immunity fro lawsuits for the flu drug makers.... --- Is that before or after flu shot profits?
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Coping: With Fluttering Wind Socks A number of people who have read the predictive linguistics reports recent (www.halfpasthuman.com) have written in trying to figure out why I am not expecting a huge singular event on October 25th. A typical email goes like this one:
No need - I can explain everything right here so we're all clear on this. None of this is financial advice - just my own ponderings as I get ready to step into some short-term speculation. Let me run through things as discussion/thought points:
I'll say this again: this is NOT investment advice. However it's important to understand that context shifts are difficult to make money on...and we're all feeling our way with predictive linguistics, which is a whole fledgling field of science.
What I plan to do in my personal accounts is to wait as long as possible before committing funds to any trade, but look for markets to be quite different from say next Friday's open to the option expirations in November (19th/20th). In addition to the linguistics, I'll be looking at my other diagnostic tools including RSI, MacD, OBV, and so forth.
This is a lot like shooting an instrument approach in an airplane: Sure, you might be able to land using just the glide slope, but isn't it nice to have a moving map display on the WAAS-enhanced GPS going, too? As long as you're conscious of decision overload, it's not excessive thinking. And at some point, I'll throw the dart.
Cliff's often said that the rickety time machine is like trying to see the future through a camera lens smeared with Vaseline...and if you're not a visual thinker, then stick your hand into a closed box with some kind of animal you've never seen and try to draw a picture of the animal. That's the scope of the problem.
To reduce all the linguistic theories that we've cobbled up to practicum (Can a buck be made with this stuff?) is not the point. Rather, the point is to be mentally aloof from the herd such that forthcoming stampedes of group-think, so you can continue to chart your own path into the future.
To summarize: I don't think my discussion is a 'contrarian point of view'. I'm expecting a shift from release of tension to building tension and whether that happens as a slowly declining market over a two-three week period (which might present a great entry for longer term gold holdings) or whether it's a smackdown of stocks and a sudden elevation of the metals seems a riskier play.
As I've said repeatedly, my plan is not to make a killing in the casino, but to make consistent 50-100% gains and to accomplish this, I don't look at the predictive linguistics as saying 'buy this' or 'sell that short' - the report doesn't say that and anyone who would trade that way would be a fool. Think of it more like a wind sock - a harbinger of directional change (to my way of thinking to a market correction downward) and if you sense that coming, then the speculative decision-making process begins by enumerating:
This devolves into a series of spreadsheets where one could (just for example) be guesstimating the impact of a strong dollar counter trend rally for a couple of weeks on gold, wheat, sugar, and so on. The task - in a Warren Buffett kind of way - is to find those areas where the public hasn't been looking. Not that I'd be buying lumber calls, or anything that far out. But some of the grains and the softs - we'll, commodities seem attractive for the simple reason fewer retail customers play there and as a result things like option premiums tend (but never always) to be less absurd than the index option premiums.
Hope that's clear enough. My inclination this morning is to play puts on a grain or soft entering late next week and then roll long into metals and oil - especially if the decline in the Dow (to use one marker) looks to test the March lows.
I can almost see the outline of it in the Bloomberg article this morning "S&P 500 Index due for 'Stiff Correction': Technical Analysis."
First articles about directional change tend to be ignored while the strong hands sell into weak. Next week (and maybe even today) I might do a little put scalping. One possible use of the predictive linguistics might be to help with option timelines. Something that's just a bit out of the money now could easily be deep in the money in three weeks IF the shift to building tension is concurrent with a strong dollar rally, drop in gold (although separating from paper indices).
To my way of thinking, the 'wind sock' may be about to turn and if that Bloomberg piece this morning is the first flutter of the wind sock, then it's maybe time to scale in to my next great trade. Six trading days till the wind changes, plus or minus events.
Oh, one more little flutter of the wind sock: Oakland's got the first container report out of the West Coast ports I track and they were only down 3.7% compared with a year ago and compared to the year's average, up about 8.8%.
There - did you see it? Another flutter in the wind sock.
But then again, I've been wrong before and no doubt will be wrong again. But this is my money & my darts so when I call JB at 6:02 AM and have him start entering orders.... --- 7:22 AM: Just off the phone with JB: Bought options - will explain it to Peoplenomics readers Sunday. May lose a couple of grand, but no guts, no glory.
MC Obamavision Reader sends this:
That may well be, but two things to remember: First, the road to perdition has twists and turns to it and I think it was Mark Twain who wrote "The reports of my death are highly exaggerated..." Give it time, play the swings. Speaking of which... --- "Leaked Network Memo Reveals: Obama Controls your Television Set." Well, yours maybe - we have a free-to-air setup and watch things like France-24, Deutsche-Welle, and Russia Today's news as a counterpoint...
World Ends When? A reader says he's come up with another article on when 'the world ends':
Damn! So, does this mean I shouldn't make plans for golf that weekend?
Reader's Writes Hmmm...
Nope, I'm a figment of Ure imagination. But seriously, Ft. Davis is 497 miles to the West/Southwest of us. Nice country and all, but only 54.7 miles from the border with Mexico. Ya'll habla?
In View Chinese drywall complaints may result in federal action come the end of the month...maybe.
Busted by the Grammar Police Again...
Uh...er...https://urbansurvival.com/ then? and http://72.52.163.140/ maybe?
Thursday October 15, 2009 Tame CPI Consumer price index is out:
Counter Trend Rally I called my commodities guy (JB Slear) yesterday and told him I was considering a few gold put options. Yeah, that's right...to make some money on gold going down because my sense was that the dollar decline - and subsequently the price of gold - had gotten a bit ahead of itself. We spent a little time on the phone discussing this side of the trade, and that, and I told him as I had it figured, one of the things that could happen would be a pull back of gold, rally slightly in the buck going into today's expiration of index options, to be followed by stock options tomorrow, and then one more barn-burner of a rally come the middle of next week which could take us up to the 10,300-10,400 Dow range. If, following that, we had a decline to something like 9,650 a week from Friday, then I'd be 'all in' (to use a Texas poker term) on the short side of gold and the long side of the dollar trade, since the herd would be given a fine haircut - crew cut at that - since the 'death of the dollar' has been a little overworked, as I see it. But at the moment, it seemed possible.
On the other hand, the other side of it is what Robin Landry pointed out when I asked him how things shaped up on the stock side of things. He agrees that while 10,300-10,400 is possible he also pointed out that the wave counts are looking pretty complete right here so there's no reason why a strong dollar rally, big decline in gold couldn't get underway from this morning, accelerate through the option squaring period and then get underway in earnest next week.
So this morning started off with a scan of the headlines to see if I was going to be 'late to the party' on a short term (but potentially playable) gold correction. Unfortunately, I could be a 'day late and a dollar shy' to snap up a quick Lexus payment. Why? Aha! We begin our review:
CNN is reports that foreclosures have just gone through the 'Worst three months of all time' and they're saying that despite the Dow topping 10, if you're looking at real estate for signs of life...keep looking. Some of the local interpretations are grim, too. The Birmingham Business Journal is headlining that foreclosures there are up 22%.
Another party I may be late to is the rally in crude oil: Oh sure, the headlines when we started contemplating "George's Next Big Trade" seemed to imply that oil would near $76 a barrel as the WSJ Online was headlining - and might keep going. But with gold soft (down almost $10-bucks as I write) that implies a down start to the market (anyone for under 10K on the close today?) and that would hint at the possibility of a pullback in oil.
The dollar has pared earlier losses in Europe, where things were headed down a bit in the early-going. Again, another sign that calls for Dollar replacement may have gotten ahead of reality, although getting disconnected from the facts seems like a common occurrence among traders. --- Linguistically, we're supposed to get a foretaste of events to come in 11-days time right about here (from the 12-17th as a Bell curve distribution). Unfortunately, it's left to the wild-eyed speculator in the outfit (played by guess who?) to infer which way things will pop. --- One work-out of events which could be triggered by an act of domestic terrorism, a major bank run or collapse, or just too many manic me-too traders would be a continuation of the dollar decline. At some point, that could steam-roll. Problem: How far down could the dollar go?
A friend of my called from New Zealand yesterday and explained the recent market performance this way: "I think what a lot of Americans are doing right now is getting out of paper dollars, on the thought that it's safe to own a piece of IBM or other well-run American company than it is to hold paper dollars..." Sounded like a reasonable explanation of why the market has been going up lately.
"But what about that tipping point where suddenly people realize that owning a piece of IBM, or any other good company, isn't going to matter because the ultimate market size is going to be whacked in half - or less - because of the onset of the harsh part of Depression Two?" I asked him.
Since there are no textbooks on predictive linguistics as applied to financial markets, despite being intimately involved in reading the forecasts since the technology went public in June of 2001, I still am not sure how to play a specific market in response to the expectations. We can see things tipping 11-days from now, but which way? Will Depression 2 dawn, or will the Treasury, Fed, and the folks currently loosing have one of history's greatest ever running of the Bulls? A large well-orchestrated dollar rally would sink gold, push the market back toward believable levels, and so forth... --- The evidence of Depression 2 continues to mount. Since the Cost of Living adjustments for people on Social Security has become something of a cruel joke, the administration has announced a plan to make $250 one-time payments to seniors. Don't spend it all in one place. That's what, $20-bucks a month? Can't even buy a fifth of pain killer for that...rotgut maybe. --- A careful read of the FOMC notes out Wednesday afternoon, contained some cautiously worded thoughts on bank reserve levels as they relate to the possible recovery:
Expand lending, pressure to keep rate lower? Not exactly bullish for doomers, is it? Reading the rest of the Minutes there wasn't anything decisive that I could infer much beyond a kind of general "It could go either way, but we think things are getting better, so we won't do anything to rock the boat for now..." which is what I'd do, since rates can't go lower and we're already having Peter write checks to Paul who in turn is cashing them with Peter.
The "Dollar hit on Fed's signal of low rates" isn't too surprising, in this context. --- Since I'm not in 'get rich quick' mode and since being over 60, I am a little more conservative than I once was, I'm going to be Biden my time (that's how to sit back, seem busy and do nothing, isn't it?). I'd wait till I can see a decisive way to play the next several weeks before piling in.
While jailed economist Martin Armstrong's recent piece "A Three-year old with a pocket Calculator can figure out We're Screwed" can see that the dollar decline continues and that unlike the Great Depression where the dollar was the reserve currency, this time around is is distinctly NOT. What this means to Armstrong is that when the you-know-what hits the fan, all those loosely printed dollars will come home to roost and that's a textbook set-up for inflation or maybe even a bought of Weimar-like hyperinflation. --- One of the old sayings on Wall Street is that "Traders drive Chevrolets, investors drive Cadillacs." But seems like I only hear that from poor traders. The good trader strives for that moment when the data becomes clear to him (or her) and moves before the whole herd, thus taking their 60% out of the middle of a move. The hardest part is the waiting for the move to crystallize on days like today.
War Department: The Stealth Super-Surge Had a nastygram yesterday for my story about why we need more wars - to solve the unemployment problem. Sent the offended reader a list of definitions for the word satire.
But wait: "North Korea warns of possible naval clash with South" over disputed waters. Don't see how that will employ very many people...next war, please? We come to my point: ---- The attack in Pakistan this morning that has killed nearly 40 will ramp up pressure to send more forces to Afghanistan...and look! The Brits are sending more forces, too, since they also suffer from high unemployment.
But that's nothing compared to the "US plan to send 'up to 45,000 more troops to Afghanistan".
Now we get to the head-scratcher: When Dubya was winding up his presidency earlier in the corporate takeover of America, his plans to send 20,000 additional soldiers to Iraq was called a surge. Here's the Wikipedia entry:
Yah see, sitting out here in the East Texas outback, using old math, not the new stuff, it seems like the Obamastration has just announced to the foreign press that we're running with a doubled up Super-Size Surge with no complaints from the once anti-war American Left.
If you wanted proof that the world was completely nuts, this is about as good as you'll get: Obama ramps up the war in Afghanistan like crazy (<---good war related word there); a move which ought to turn him into the Messiah for the rabid Right. And, it's a move which the demagogues...I mean democorps.... out to be holding mass demonstrations about; million member marches and such.
Hear the deafening silence of the lambs? (The sheeple...) I mean, WTF?
The Right's not applauding, the Left's not demonstrating...maybe I should just tend to the goats and keep my mouth shut. The world has made way less sense since the election anyway...that part at least is transparent.
Lotto Hoax "Is the word gullible in the dictionary?" Answer to that is clear as up in Columbus, a "Lottery hoax causes riot at Ohio coast store."
Future guidance: The only people with money to give away are Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke and president Obama. Unless you're a special interest or a critical trading partner, I wouldn't be expecting anything...
Transparency and General Confusion A top Chinese general is planning a week-long visit to the US to "promote trust and avoid misunderstandings."
Of particular note is the stories contexting of the word transparency. Hmmm...not sure that's the kind of transparency US voters had in mind.
Want more proof of 'wrong transparency'? "Tentative Inspection Program Would Allow Russia to Visit U.S. Nuclear Sites."
What Goes Up Strange story out of China: Hot-air balloon exploded and crashed.
Deadly Burritos The Smoking Gun has another oddity today out of South Carolina: "Felony charge for teen who tossed Mexican 'missile' at car as a prank." A burrito? Time delayed IED, maybe?
Phone Stories If you think I'm going to rehash the who cares story about Maria Shriver getting popped for talking on a cell phone while driving: Wrong.
No, instead there's this linger question about the Wall Street heavies who call Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner once (or more often) a day. Story came up with the AP did a special report analyzing Geithner phone logs...and now the Financial Times has picked up that "Geithner aides made millions on Wall Street". Key part:
Want another phone story? How about "Analysis of cellphone studies finds tumor risk..."
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Coping: Braced for Whatever... First things first: There is now an SSL layer for UrbanSurvival.com. Yep: https://urbansurvival.coim. That's because some people can not get to UrbanSurvival at work.
Since there are two strategies being used to block UrbanSurvival access behind various firewalls, I've also set up a fixed IP address. You should now be able to go into your browser at work and simply type in the following numbers on your browser's address bar and get to UrbanSurvival:
You might want to write that down, since if the Internet is ever attacked, very few (if any) public name servers would be left running and having a working DNS address would be the hot ticket.
No, I don't know anything. I am however, one hell of a contingency planner and this is something I want everyone to have reader: my IP address.
If ,cyber terrorists ever figured out a way to take down the internet's name-servers, how long do you think it would take to re-enter every site's name? Oh, what a way to shut down the internet, rally folks around authority and silence dissent, huh?
So go ahead, start bookmarking DNS servers or use a WHOIS lookup to find DNS's in advance. I bet the big news organizations and federal agencies will come back first in the event of any such possibilities and wow - would that kill off a huge portion of the free speech 'problem' posed by the internet, eh?
Mining Thoughts I had a rather critical note from a reader yesterday who took me to task for suggesting that when things settle down, the area up near Yakima Washington where an 'out of the blue' landslide took place might make for an interest gold panning expedition in the future was crash, unfeeling and totally callous and money-driven. Maybe...but my point was not to figure a way to profit on the misfortune of others, but merely to get folks thinking about looking at the world differently since in the long term linguistics there's plenty of 'moving earth' to be dealt with coming down the pike a few years out.
Moreover, it was also to get back to thinking about how gold can still be panned directly from the earth since exposed veins in the Cascades and elsewhere continually refresh the creeks and streams that come from gold-bearing lands.
At least one reader report he's familiar with the further north gold mining groups west of Ellensburg:
A lot of families made it through the Depression by gold panning, and there is nothing new under the sun.
Happily Ever Aftering Speaking of that woman (PhD. physicist) who bemoaned the fact recently that she couldn't find a like-minded male to accompany here on the ongoing adventures of life: Turns out a retired spec ops (Ltc) doctor who's now teaching medicine in the Caribbean and her are getting on famously. And he sent along this:
He include a link to an article at NaturalNews...as well as some notes on how to read it. Example:
Now, remember, this is only from a hard core, ex US military doc teaching medicine now...BUT he mentions - and this is something for you to keep an open medical mind about - that most of the improvement in eradication of disease has come concurrently with major improvements in public health. So, if you're a medical student (like my son's girlfriend) here's a dandy statistical problem: How would you conclusive prove in a statistically valid way that disease death rates are solely responsible for eradication of this disease or that? Is it possible that vaccines are taking credit for environmental improvements? A couple of other reader-docs (and our consulting PhD microbiologist) are in the same camp; openly skeptical and in several cases outright suspicious that folks with blanket legal immunity want to stick a needle in my arm.
I'm a great believer in quid pro quo: Talk to my lawyer and own all liability and treble damages for my survivors. Till then, the shirt cuffs stays buttoned, thanks.
Marketing the Recession Good piece in Small Business Newz under the heading "What Consumers Think About Recession-Related Marketing". Bottom line is that a lot of folks seem to recognize this as crass manipulation but 23% say "the advertisements make the brand seem more believable." I sure hope you're not in the 23%, although an increase in consumer spending wouldn't hurt banksters...
Time Sinks Our friendly programmer who is still debugging the image rotation software for crop circles (and what have you) has just experienced missing time:
Common programmer disease, strikes code-a-holics when a good 26-day run of Twinkies and Jolt wears off. People who haven't worked in the computer industry call such events 'weekends.'
A Blog Is Born It's taken a lot of coaxing, but my friend Howard Hill has finally embarked on a writing career...starting up a blog called "Mind on Money". You can read his bio here, and once it sinks in that a) he was one of the PC pioneers on Wall Street and b) he isn't kidding where he writes "Show me a cash flow, and I’ll build you a bond" you'll hopefully read his site once in a while. --- I hear his tale of the "Mortgage Market Mayhem" may be offered for sale one of these days...and trust me, in terms of learning how mortgages and the whole shee-bang worked, (until it didn't) it'll be worth whatever he charges for it.
Howard
is to FORTRAN was George is to sales & marketing - the guys in
the back room who helped made the biggest Consumer Spending
Blow-off in history work. Wednesday October 14, 2009 Retail Drops But So What? It is a Depression, you know. Bad news from the Census Bureau on Retail Sales figures:
Green whats? Since a good part of this is Bush era leftovers - Obama hasn't done enough yet to matter and Bush was the Bubblemeister along with Sir Alan ("Easy Al, the bubble pal) -- let's call this a W-shaped Depression, eh? Kinda like the 1933 low and then the 1937-39 double dipper.
But it's all champagne down on Wall St. JP Morgan earnings were up! Sham pain for the rest of us.
Why We Need War, Redux Tired of 8+ years in the sandbox? Well, as I've told you (probably too many times, come to think of it) if we didn't have The Wars, we would have a helluva lot higher unemployment rate...and that we're in the Second Depression would become horribly obvious and then people would bail from the paper markets and...oh, you see how that all ends badly, I trust.
Be skeptical of my viewpoint, but here's more evidence that my Maxwell House induced clarity is spot on: "Bleak U.S. job market boosts military recruitment." --- Wasn't it Private Joker who said in Full Metal Jacket: "I wanted to see exotic Vietnam... the crown jewel of Southeast Asia. I wanted to meet interesting and stimulating people of an ancient culture... and kill them." --- Some morning's I sit here overwhelmed by the immense human progress we have made in the past 40 years... Why just look at all the things that used to be free that we now get to pay for. Most folks have to pay a cable or satellite bill now instead of watching the wars free. Toll roads are popping up so we never stop paying for highways. And the 'change party' hasn't changed a damn thing of substance. Oh, and what cost $100 in 1966 now costs $658.02. Are we an awesome species, or what?!
All That Glitters ...is not commodity statements, although that they've started to come with groans of .MP3's instead of laugh tracks is a good sign. Not too anxious to wade into gold, since although it peaked over $1,068 yesterday, it's slap-down day early on. Typical mid-month pullback might make an interesting entry for the wild & crazy. Don't know anyone like that, though....ahem....
Weather Speaking of grains, intermarket strangles and such, weather here in East Texas continues to be wetter than average by about 4-inches for the year. Snow came to the Reno area on Tuesday and upstate New York is looking at a dusting today. Even more fun: Skiing already in Lynchburg Virginia.
I haven't talked to my neighbors about putting a ski lift in on the side of our local mountain. Texans, prone to exaggerate a wee bit, call our hunk of land part of the Concorde Mountains, although they are only a couple of hundred feet higher than Palestine Airport (412' compared to the 'mountain' being a bit over 600'). Still, putting in a Kubota-powered rope tow would keep Elaine ready for the bunny slopes should we get snow here. Although for sure, it's not like the Issaquah Alps. --- But that's not the weather story to watch. Nope. Remember those stories this summer about how the tides on the East Coast were running in some cases more than 2-feet higher than normal? Well.... that's been more or less laid at the feet of the Gulf Stream slowing down.
Being a rocket surgeon and all, I reckon that will bring less heat to England, France, Germany and so on, and with the sun spot count still ultra low, the phrase 'global warming' looks to my way of thinking like a sick joke to northern Europeans this winter.
Most
folks don't idly play with Microsoft Streets & Trips 2010 with GPS
All of which puts the current disputes over Ukraine transshipment of oil and gas into an important context along with the note that oil has firmed as the reality that bikini weather is probably gone for the year. Time to put away the oggle goggles, unless you're in Florida, sad to report. --- Speaking of weather:
Yeah, ain't that a dandy little double entendre from the NOAA folks? They've been using the term "shortwave" for years: "Also known as Shortwave Trough; a disturbance in the mid or upper part of the atmosphere which induces upward motion ahead of it. If other conditions are favorable, the upward motion can contribute to thunderstorm development ahead of a shortwave."
It's like the predictive linguistics crew says: Changes in language precede changes in life. Curious to point out the meteorological use of shortwave predates the tropo-burner up at Gelana.
then again, if it was peaceful uses I guess the work wouldn't be classified, would it?
French Toast President Sarkozy of France is in hot water for giving his son a plum political job. Kid's 23 and is in his second year of law school. Must be nice, huh?
Healthcare Dead? Republicorp's Senator Mitch McConnell says t'ain't gonna be a health care bill :
Gosh, just think of all that fine national angst we're wasting. Rule by fear, huh?
Ban Patriotism Apartment house in Albany Oregon reportedly has banned American flags but displays its own flags for one and two bedroom apartments. Hold on, I'm going outside and scream. --- ... --- There. Better now. Apologies to the neighbors. What neighbors? Why do you think we live in the outback? Do that in a city and a SWAT team would be here. Although no one in Texas would be dumb enough to ban flying American flags, for damn sure. --- Want more? Check out the story of a woman in Tempe who's home is a listed as a hazard by the city for no discernable - yet - reason. Only thing the resident can figure is her criticism of the police chief. Don't you love living in a police state?
Poll: Angry Americans The Wall Street Journal headlines new poll results as "Rage at Government for Doing Too Muich and Not Enough." Quick - look surprised. Don't you love living in....oh you know.
Ain't No Mountain High Enough Department "Whole face of mountain fell into valley, resident says" up in Central Washington . This would be flooding and a nearly 1/2 miles long landslide and such near Yakima. --- And what would George do? Grab a gold pan and try a little sniping when things settle down a bit. Yakima is only 42-miles south and in the east Cascade Mountains from what was once great gold panning up around the town of Liberty, or further up US 97 toward Wenatchee along Suak Creek where you can still see tailings from dredging operations during the first Depression.
Enough! I must have gotten 300 copies of the joke making it's rounds on the internet: "Obama wins Heisman for watching a football game..." Newest one (so far today) is " Obama named Country Singer of the Year"....without getting his first song out.
But seriously (or somewhat so): The "Nobel jury defends Obama decision" is worth reading. I see the jury used the downsizing of the missile shield I suggested earlier this week. Of course, that wasn't on the horizon when nominations were open and people aren't that stoopid doesn't bear mentioning, But if they'd give it to Kissinger not telling what the criteria are, really.
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Coping: Looking For the Next Big Trade Wheat got close enough to my targets in the commodities market that I exited my March 2010 wheat calls. Entry was around 9¢ and the exit was around 19 3/8th's ¢ for a six-week trade. But, of course, the problem now is "What do you do for an encore?" I don't tell people my trades until after I've done them since my specialty is sales & marketing & strategic planning, NOT dispensing advice to individuals. Too many lawyers and regulators for my tastes, although it's flattering to be asked. Still, the answer is no.
A reader in the Midwest explains how I got lucky:
Maybe I sold early, but the old saying "Bears make money, bulls make money but pigs get slaughtered is something that has cost me untold thousands to learn. I'm only part stupid. --- As always, the problem with making a buck is trying to figure out what's going to happen before hand and then get into positions that will likely profit. For example, IF someone believed that the 'building emotional tension" in the predictive linguistics work for the October 25 to mid November area would be accompanied by a market slide of some consequence, then the time to enter a short side trade might be close to expiration index options with an entry around maybe this time next week.
But, since there's no guarantees the market would go down - and it could be a melt-up for all we know, then you get into a little bit of heavier math trying to optimize a straddle or strangle position. If you don't play options (I'm sure you got some other vices, though, am I right?) the difference between them is roughly as follows:
In a straddle, you have a market (whether it's a stock, commodity, or index) at price X. You buy one put at or below the money, such that if the market declines your option pays off, and at the same time you buy a call option such that if the market X goes up, the call option makes money.
Say you had International Acme Widgets for $100 and there were options on it. You might buy a $105 call and a $95 put. In a perfect world, maybe you only paid $5 each for the option. If Acme goes to something like $110, or $90, then you'd have a breakeven (not including time premium). If IAW went down to $90, the $105 call would be worthless but the $95 put would be in the money $5 - which would make up for your loss on the call that went toes up.
If IAW went down to $75, then you'd be $15 into the money ($90 being the breakeven point for the straddle, and then the additional dough for the put option goes to your pocket).
This all gets endlessly complicated, however, because the pricing is never this simple and there's time premium besides pure risk premium (which is why Black-Scholes analysis is the ultimate time sink, even more so than Second Life or World of Warcraft).
In a straddle, the the key thing is that the market has to move a ,fair bit before you make serious money because both options are at (or just slightly out of) the money.
In a strangle, the tactic is a little different: You buy options that are already in the money to some extent. Say you we can find an index trading at $100. To set up a strangle, you'd buy maybe a $105 put, so if the market closed at $100, you'd still be $5 in the money. On the other side, you'd also buy a $95 call.
Let's see what happens here: When IAW goes to $90 the $95 call be worthless, but the $105 put would be $15, so your net could be $10 instead of $5 as was the case in the straddle.
All of which sounds like the ultimate case for strangles except for one small detail, well, two then: First is that it costs a lot more to play. Buying options that are already in the money is way more expensive than buying out of the money options. Then there's the ugly matter of time time value.
Which means Elaine hasn't seen much of me the past day or so since I've been staring at software and trying to figure out the next way to score a two bagger or three baggers (2X or 3X returns). --- Now let's talk strategy and tactics. Our strategy is to make oodles and piles of money while it can still buy something besides a larger tax obligation, so we can continue building the most resilient possible personal live long and prosper property which can be a haven for family and loved ones. I guess we can skip strategy.
Tactics is another matter. A good trader would look at the coming period and ask: "What is could happen between October 25th and a couple of weeks into November that might present a profitable trade? We go to the headlines seeking directional indicators.
First thing up this morning in the NY Post piece Tuesday that says the "Dollar loses reserve status to yen and euro". I saw this morning (early) that the dollar was getting hosed again and this usually means gold will go up - and should that happen, apartment house pricing theory says the Dow should go up as well. But what happens after October 25th?
Intel's earnings could be a shot in the arm for the market when things get underway this morning, which would go along with higher gold and such.
So one possibility that keeps coming up in my head is that the markets could keep going up till October 26th, in which case, buying puts on the 23rd might make sense. Besides, if some terribly deflationary news came out - or some event that seriously rallies the dollar, then the Dow (along with other indices) could quickly drop from recent lofty levels.
Not worth playing for this cycle (index options expire tomorrow and stocks on Friday, so no point in playing. But November options are late (Nov. 19/20) and that is sure tempting.
Another thing I'm contemplating is an intermarket straddle. In other words, today's major activity 9when not on client work, yada, yada, yada, will be running some pricing models to see what would happen if I play one calls in one market (the commodity market) for one side and play the other (puts in stocks or stock indexes) on the other. Nothing says straddles and strangles have to be in the same playing field, right? Ah....more 'what if's' to run.
Monkey mind is going 100 miles an hour. Hard telling which way things could pop (if the linguistics are right) but I sure wouldn't mind paying a little bit for the potential volatility toward month end just to see. It's one thing to have a rickety time machine. Lacking clarity on directional outcomes, setting up as a volatility rather than directional play to me seems the safest course of action. Either that or skip it entirely and go read a book...
And the Answer is? A reader from Oregon has how to solve most of our national problems:
Wholly unworkable since it sounds suspiciously like what the Framers had in mind. Are you crazy? LOL
Tuesday October 13, 2009 Better Than Gold With the price of gold breaking above $1,065, no above $1,068, no make that..... this morning I know a lot of gold bugs - including myself - who are saying "My, my, isn't this nice..." But, if the truth were out there - and no reason it shouldn't be - the move here in gold recently has been dwarfed by another 'commodity'. Grains.
Of course, part of the reason is that the dollar is dropping and inflation fears are back, but no surprise to that. Considering last weekend's Peoplenomics.com subscription was titled "The Day the Dollar Died" my timing seems to be fairly close to the mark; and conveniently in advance, I might add.
"Get to it...what do you mean better than gold?" you're asking. Let's see if you can figure it out from some headlines. Here are a few to get you started: "1-million metric tons of rice needed as buffer stock - solon". Be ready for an antivirus trip here, but the headline is worth reading and extremely on point to this morning's discussion: "China to raise minimum wheat purchasing prices."
The BBC is warning that "Food production 'must rise 70%." What would drive that? Oh, you probably missed the UN "FAO Says Climate Change to Reduce Food Production up to 21 pct". To be sure, there are some headlines that sound really long-range (and dire) like the one that asks "How will the world feed itself in 40-years time?" --- People can get along without the U.S. dollar. Oh sure, it's been a convenient way to arrange trade and payment, but the current (not really) Federal Reserve Notes are the fourth paper currency we've been through in the USA. You are extremely unlikely to ever be handed a genuine silver certificate, or a greenback, or a Continental as change when you go shopping.
Since 1968, the silver certificate has only been redeemable in ferns - FEderal Reserve NoteS, - but they are still considered legal tender. "Why wasn't there a huge public uprising over the federal government backing out on a promise to back its paper with some measure of silver in 1968?" you're wondering...
Welcome to the world of distractions to keep people from noticing the really big changes that go right to core assumptions: The Vietnam War had its purposes, you know. For one thing, it flattened out the Baby Boomer demographic bubble a bit for future generations of population controllers - and it hid the renunciation of the silver certificate from being the focus of the public's anger at a time when inflation was being warmed up
That also paved the way for the US to back out of international obligations to supply foreign countries with gold in lieu of paper when demanded as then president Nixon slammed the Gold Window shut in 1971. --- Now let's do a bit of simple math: Take the starting date of America - 1776 call it and subtract that from 1968 and you have 192 years. During which time, we had three currencies. Divide, please, and you get 64-years.
If you're really amped on the go-juice this morning (three definitions of go come to mind, LOL) the close correlation between the 64-year average currency lifespan (64 years) and the length of the Kondratiev (Kondratieff) long wave economic cycle should come slapping you about the head. "Well, I'll be darned..." - and you will be.
So now we take 1968 and roll forward half a long wave cycle (32 years nominally) and we should be able to see the dollars descent beginning from about 2000 if we base things on 1968, or 2003 if we base our scratching on 1971 and the end of gold-dollar convertibility. Just some things to think about.
While its true that there have been some quite rosy reports about coming wheat yields, count me as a skeptic. When the "USDA forecasts record spring wheat yield" I have to sit back and look at global conditions because there's some calorie-switching between rice and other grains - plus there's the weather to consider which has been just plain wonky. Last week's 2% slide in wheat prices may be a short-lived phenomena.
Placing a simple commodity option bet has so far been one helluva gamble. While the initial dart throw saw my holding drop 35-40%, from there, my grain options (wheat) have come roaring back and over the past two weeks are up more than 200%.
Time to unload? Not for me, thanks. When I look at a chart of wheat since June, I see it was as high as $7.23 (or so) and it hit a low recently (my entry point, LOL) of about $4.40. That's roughly a $2.83 decline. One potential exit point will come on a 38.2% retracement which would be around $5.48. Since wheat is still under $5.00 I figure another doubling in the options is possible - and maybe a tripling if I hold for a 50% retracement.
And if I make some money in the commodity options, then what? Well, some ultra-long expiration puts in the S&P 500 are getting to look interesting, especially since we're fast closing in on the October 25th emotional tipping point.
I'm pleased as punch that gold is pushing $1,070 this morning, but counter-balancing that is my displeasure that the purchasing power of your money & mine is being further hollowed out by the central banksters who seem intent on screwing America's Boomers out of their life-long savings. Oh sure, you may get to have that $300,000 nest egg in your 401(k) but it may not buy you more than a few loaves of bread - as those $100-trillion dollar Zimbabwe notes on my office wall constantly remind me.
You can't eat gold or silver. But grains? Different story and one you might want to think about. --- But the game won't last long - February 12 is a good bet. Why? The predictive linguistics point to the 'mutated flu' bug (being released or 'occurring' in the temporal/physical vicinity of - I'll leave this to your imagination) at the Winter Olympics at Whistler Mountain, B.C.. If the flu goes super-deadly, (bank on it, eh?) then prices of almost everything ought to fall, depending on the mortality rate and so on.
Whether the new flu vaccine will help or hinder the financial outcome, future history will be along to decide soon enough. But that sets up even more strong central government powers and the ongoing subsuming of State's Rights. Not a happy prospect at all. And making a pile of money along the way...is that compensation? No, but it doesn't hurt, either.
Maybe what's better than gold is colloidal silver and plenty of vitamin D-3... The biggest headline of the morning sums it up this way: "Obama dollar retreats most against commodities in wealth shift." W
What was it George Peppard used to say on the A-Team episodes? "I love it when a plan comes together..."
Not everyone is blind to what's happened: "Bill Moyers: Was the Financial Bailout Just a Slick, Friendly Takeover of the Federal Government?"
Gold Higher Still? This is a kind of curious thing to notice on the US Mint's official site - as they explain that "Production of United States Mint 2009 American Buffalo Gold Proof Coins has been delayed because of the limited availability of 24-karat gold blanks." Say WHAT? No gold blanks?
States Rights Showdown Word that the "White House strips immigration police powers from Arizona Sheriff" Joe Arpaio is an indicator to me, anyway, that the Obama administration will do even less than the Bush administration to secure our border with Mexico. --- Speaking of which, my retired SF brother-in-law Panama Bates sent me a note I've been meaning to mention and now seems like a good time: he's come up with the answer to the whole problem of illegal immigrant healthcare. Check it out:
A damn fine one, that that! Hell, bill 'em for the free educations, too.
Seems to me that once a Mexican national crosses the border Norte, they are pretty much off the hook for all but murder charges in their home country. On the other hand, if a US resident tries to leave, not only do we need government PERMISSION now, but IRS will come looking for income tax money for the next 10-years even if not a cent was earned inside the US.
This leads me to three possible conclusions: Mexico and most other countries in the world which dump citizens overseas are irresponsible, or the US is excessively responsible...or (my favorite): The whole world is crazy, irrational, insane, and this is why UFO's show up - to watch ant-farm Earth self destruct. Speaking of which....
Wag the Washington The oldest game in Washington is called "wag the dog" (Good movie, too.).
The updated version is now playing and it's called "(Insurers) Wag the Policy" as the healthcare lobby has hauled out the most dire of predictions and scare tactics.
I'm still waiting for the Fed to come out with the sequel "Wag the Money" as audit potential is still on the horizon for the federal reserve....
Energy Crisis Over That's the upshot out of a conference recently in Buenos Aires where new highly efficient ways of squeezing natural gas out of oil shale were unveiled. Problem: time to market.
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Coping: With Global Police Not a very pleasant thing to report, but the role of local (e.g. city, county, and state) law enforcement is becoming visibly subsumed (that word just keeps popping up this morning) by talk and actions related to Federal Police and now there's talk about Interpol becoming international police to boot.
Quick to seize opportunity, "Interpol issues its own passport." Now, I don't know about how you feel about this, but that seems to me to infer that Interpol is turning the term police STATE into police WORLD and guess who's not represented?
The Electoral College may have set the stage for all this when it allowed states to disenfranchise citizens without penalty, as has been offered as a criticism of the College. Wonder how Sheriff Joe feels about this? I digress... --- Yep: Readers all over the country report seeing those blue-striped SUV's all over the country now days - some sample sightings:
Yikes! One reader who understands what's going on spells it out this way:
And since, as Paul Craig Roberts reported the "PATRIOT Act mandates Homeland Security Police", another reader wonders:
Oh...that's when the Kanamits arrive in their UFO's with the book "To Serve Man" which turns out to be a cookbook. But, thanks for asking.
Meantime, gotta wonder what kind of fleet buy the Feds got from GM which was edging toward bankruptcy...oh you see how the controlled economy works, right? --- Stories out of Fox Chicago like "People afraid to come out of their homes" may explain why gun and ammo sales are up.
Write this down somewhere, would you: Ure Axiom 1009: The number of police required is proportionate to the square of the number of laws on a nations books.
Working Out Bugs Several people have wondered why UrbanSurvival has disappeared off some ISP's - and I'm wondering myself. Here's a typical email:
Here's what's going on: I have asked my ISP to switch Urban from a floating IP to a fixed IP address - and the way they do this is by setting up an SSL layer for me. This means that when the work is done in the next day or two, you may be able to get around those 'censorship servers' by entering in https://www.urbansurvival.com when we get it sorted out. That SSL layer should also result in a fixed (numeric) IP address.
I'll be explaining one of these mornings how to get numeric IP addresses so you can book marked fixed IP's before we get to the events expected toward the end of October to mid November - just in case the Internet is somehow labeled a threat and gets 'turned down'. It may be that SSL layers and fixed IP's might still work - don't know for sure, but anything to increase the reliability of this site seems like a worthwhile pursuit.
Ham Radio: Help Needed I must be on a zillion ham radio lists since as a hobby I tinker with old tube-type radio gear and get it working...the newest adventure is an old Galaxy 5 with remote VFO that I got off eBay for $129 including shipping and power supply - in working condition the ad claims. Helluva buy.
But that's not this morning's ham radio story. It's this email:
The island is southeast of Dallas about 47.7139 miles. No, I don't know why they don't include a 2-meter setup which might be able to hit the Dallas repeaters - this is not my deal so I shut up and watch. But I do have an alarm in Outlook to try and make contact with them on 40-meters Saturday. Contacts from other hams would be appreciated, I'm sure. Monday October 12, 2009 Columbus Would Be Proud Before we get deeply into the morning's financial headlines, I'd like to note that this is when some years back that Christopher Columbus' posse began the large scale looting of the Americas by landing on Samana Cay some 60-miles southeast of San Salvador. Since that time:
All of which eventually circles around to my first point of the day: Rain, sleek, snow, and hail may not stop the USPS, but politically holidays like this one does. On the other hand, the market's are open and that's a sure sign of the nation's fiscal condition: Booking revenue is more important than getting the billing delivered. Dumb...really dumb. --- Most of us with Scandinavian backgrounds have given up trying to sell Leif Ericson who we all know got here first. I notice that the Chinese are also pretty damn quiet about Admiral Zheng who it's well-documented circumnavigated the whole world almost a hundred years before the first pizza delivery man showed up.
Not really sure why the Chinese would slow pitch Admiral Zheng He's discovery of the Land of Taxes and Bureaucrats. Maybe it's because Admiral Zheng was born a Muslim. Or, maybe its because they really get a piece of municipal revenues, so why give the walkie-chalkies a day off?
A couple of glasses of Paisano and shrimp pizza...that sounds like a breakfast befitting this fine occasion, doesn't it?
Chillin' The BBC has been asking an embarrassing question here lately: "What happened to global warming?" Something the folks in Montana are getting all too familiar with as cold records are falling. And in Idaho, it's cold enough, earlier enough, to put some French fry sources at risk.
Not that headlines will straighten anything out: The Wisconsin State Journal headlines that "Gore upbeat on climate bill". On the other hand, "VIDEO: Al Gore Gets Question About Errors In His Global Warming Movie, Has Questioner s Mic Cut Off" makes it sound a little different.
A quick check of the latest NASA butterfly chart of how things are going on the sun (northern and southern hemisphere, right?) looks like the sun won't be warming up much until well into next year and say, don't you suppose this has something to do with how cold it gets here on Rock 3?
Meantime, winter was expected to come earlier than ever to Chicagoland.
59.2 here at the ranch in East Texas this morning with 65 today, 74 tomorrow and 88 Wednesday with rainfall about 2½ inches ahead of last year. --- Word that George Soros may put a billion into greenish things hasn't helped the Chicago Climate Exchange much...maybe they need some BIG sunspots to bump up that index?
Banker or Gambler? Good coverage by the NY Post on James Gorman taking over the reins at Morgan Stanley - seems like they might dial back their risk-taking a bit.
Fated Buck Gee, right after I do a whole Peoplenomics issue "The Day the Dollar Died" what do I see first up this morning? "Dollar facing 'power shift': analysts". --- No "Shift"? Is that you call it when a country's de facto global reserve currency is unseated and moved to the back of the bus? Well, if you say so...my golly. --- Did you catch the New Yorker piece on my favorite (although currently locked-up) economist Martin Armstrong? Armstrong's "Great Bull Market in History" is the best 570 pages of economics I've read. A click over to the Armstrong support group yields two great reads: "A three year old with a pocket calculator can figure out we are screwed" is very good (ends in hyperinflation, but why do you think I own a gold coin and a bit of silver? Even more interesting: "Conspiracy Theories cloaking reality?"
Anyway, point is, time to kill the fatted buck may be upon us.
More Nobel Efforts Word that Elinor Ostrom won the Nobel in economics for demonstrating "how common property can be successfully managed by user associations" struck me as a bit obvious, since husbands know the wife and kids constitute a user association in most households.
Sharing the prize was Oliver Williamson for his work in helping companies figure out when it's better to purchase goods from outside the company rather than make them internally. I always thought the answer was "When it's cheaper..." but what would you expect from a dime-store MBA?
But I suppose my simplistic view of economics which holds to the obvious -- like "Consumer-debt-driven economies can't be growing when debt is going down..." -- will have to wait for next year's Awards. Damn.
But hold on a minute: Would I want to be in the company of Kissinger and...oh I feel better, already. "mazing.
One Bettering Brown I often chide the UK's Gordo Brown for selling off his country's gold at bargain basement prices. But no, doesn't stop there. Now the UK is holding a fire sale on other assets, too, like the under Channel rail link. Wonder if any Spanish-based toll road operators will be bidding, hmmm?
The Weak Ahead Not looking too bad early on. Futures are up on earnings may not be dead rumors. Market seems bound for new (bounce) highs and 10,300 to 10,400 - the 50% retracement level - is the talk of the street. I'm a little more skeptical of 10,000, since somewhere along in here all the insiders will pull out leaving only retail investors to take the next haircut. Or, should I write "save" in this context? --- Wednesday brings Number Madness: import/export prices, retail sales (or lack thereof), inventories days and Fed notes. But the one I'm watching for is CPI because between the CPI figures and the Consumer Debt report from he Fed (G.19) I can sort of make out the path ahead. I try to make only one or two investment decisions a year and catching the long trends is easier than day trading and leaves me time for other activities. Like earning a living. --- While the happy talk abounds about how earnings are coming back (miraculously, without an increase in Consumer Debt, but I digress) we read how "Iceland Shrinks 8% as prices increase 11% in Deepest Recession." Check with Al Gore...maybe that shrinking is due to global warming, or something...not bankster exploitation.
Argentina Media Watch Why would I pay attention to how Argentina is about to bust up the main media group in that country which has had an (ahem...) clear channel to the population? If you haven't figured it out by now, you should NOT consider being an M&A or rull-up artist as a career. --- Probably a good thing, since it won't matter in a year or three anyway...
Couldn't Have Said It Better Department "Francis Ford Coppola Sees Cinema World Falling Apart: Interview". There, there. It's not just the cinema world Mr. Coppola...it's the whole bloody everything world.
Shortage Watch Pumpkins? Well, burn somebody at the...no...wait! Belay that.
I forgot: October is National Fire Prevention Month. Witch leads us to...
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Coping: With Daylight Savings Time I don't know why, but I looked at the clock in a panic this morning thinking I might have missed the switch back to Daylight Savings Time. Turns out though, that thanks to the latest outbreak of Impaired Thinking Disorder (also referred to as Congress) we don't get to change the clocks back this year until the first Sunday in November.
Unless, you are reading this morning's report in the EU in which case the change is made the last Sunday in October.
I don't know about you, but have you noticed that people in Asia, for the most part -- meaning Japan, China, and Idea to name a few - do not observe Daylight Savings Time?
Now, I want you to go look at which economies are the fastest growing in the world and which ones are NOT OBSERVING Daylight time. See a correlation there?
If you're a reader in Arizona, you're excused. People in Arizona haven't figured ouit clocks since the Territory became a state.
My wife Elaine's got a couple of sons who live in Arizona, and it seems like every month or so she'll wander by my office to ask "What time is it in Arizona?"
My usual answer is "1912." (That's when Arizona was granted statehood.)
Occupied California? Speaking of territories, occupied and otherwise, a reader in L.A. sent me something a week ago which I've been meaning to mention...
Hmmm...with California is a heap-o-trouble with it's budget going into the red alredy (sorry, writers have the day off for pizza and Paisano, too) maybe the federales are just, you know, making sure Arnold doesn't go cutting a side deal with Mexico or China?
Peoplenomics Follow-up The correct IP address for Peoplenomics - which will be up even if the 'net gets turned down at some point is http://67.225.203.185/ which you will want to bookmark. I'll be working with my ISP this week to get a fixed IP address for UrbanSurvival - which may get people who can't get this site because of corporate content controllers a way to get around the corporate censorship department. I need all the readers I can get.
Useful Resource A whole web site about government transparency sources. Not that the results are very satisfying, but at least someone's got all the resources corralled in one spot.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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although for $69 it's a good $2-$3 grand cheaper than a
navigation system for the car - but unlike the car navigation
system, you can easily figure out that London is about as far
north as Winnepeg. So any slowing of the Gulf Stream will
do what?
