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On the free side, our usual twisted-up look at the world returns on Monday.  Have a great weekend and like Pappy used to say, "Remember: You can only spend it once..."

Going Down: Top In?

Now that Robin Landry's target zone has been filled, the odds are increasing daily that the run-up we have seen since March may be toast.  The gold price is down $7.50 when I looked this morning (early) and that would seem to portend a drop of 75-points or so in the Dow.

When I look at a 1-year chart of the Dow, what I see is the fast & slow stochastics have just completed a nice double peak, there's a divergence in the MacD, and the RSI (relative strength indicator) has turned down. 

IF this is the case (and this is NOT financial advise...you're on your own there), then I would expect to see the Dow come down a fair bit today, maybe rally next week with the usual pre-Holiday bias and either set a nominal new high or just miss it, and then get into serious down mode in coming weeks.

To just throw a dart, I'd expect to be back at March lows in either February or March, before a last gasp upside run which ought to be quite playable; at least that's how I'm planning to bet the markets.  Not touching equities, but big dollar rally and subsequent commodity decline would certainly make sense but I've been wrong more times than I can count.  Death of the Dollar taking off for the holidays could happen from where I sit.

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Although markets move on their own - trader noise being equivalent to meandering herds of bulls, bears, and sheep - there usually ends up being some news event that gets blamed for directional changes.  My personal theory is that the market is going to be very disappointed that Oprah Winfrey is planning to leave her talk show in 2011 - and before having me on as a guest, too - or more likely, the semi-retirement of the Mogambo Guru (see today's coping section) will leave the market without as much of a wall of worry to climb.

Oh, sure, a vote this weekend on the Health Care Bill might be mentioned, or the way the bill sends $100 million to Louisiana in return for support by Senator Landrieu, changes in dollar values, and the wave of troubles in the Afghanistan War (15 killed by a motorcycle bomber today), but the prospect of the Mogambo on a golf course scares me as much as all other factors combined.

Falling Gold

Big move today and Monday in gold?  That'd be December commodity options coming off the table, just so's you know.  Tungsten-filled or otherwise.

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On the other hand, there could be a huge pop in gold prices coming shortly, since my eagle-eyed broker JB called this morning to say "You know, the roll-overs to future contracts has been unusually slow...and you know what that means?" 

I didn't get an argument when I said "Oh, probably something like institutions are going to be taking some extra-large deliveries...which means either I should not sell either one of my gold coins, or I should buy tungsten futures?
 

Going Dutch

A Treasury Press release caught out consulting national bank veep this morning:

"November 19, 2009 TG-415

Treasury Announces Intent to Sell Warrant Positions in Public Dutch Auctions

The US Department of the Treasury today announced its intention to dispose of several warrant positions received in consideration for investments made under the Capital Purchase Program (CPP). Over the next month, Treasury intends to conduct auctions to sell its warrant positions in JP Morgan Chase & Co., Capital One Financial Corporation, and TCF Financial Corporation.

Each of these banks has fully repurchased Treasury's preferred stock investment. The warrant sales anticipated over the next month, if consummated in full, would represent Treasury's disposition of its remaining holdings in these companies. The proceeds of these sales will provide an additional return to the American taxpayer from Treasury's investments in these banks beyond the dividend payments it received on the related preferred stock.

Treasury intends to sell the warrants through registered public offerings. These offerings will be executed using a modified Dutch auction methodology that establishes a market price by allowing investors to submit bids at specified increments above a minimum price specified for each auction. More detailed guidance for the auctions will be available in prospectuses that will be filed by the warrant issuers prior to the opening of each auction. Treasury expects to conduct similar auctions in the future for other warrant positions it holds in banks that have repaid CPP investments.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. (Deutsche Bank) has been retained as the auction agent and sole bookrunning manager for these offerings. In this role, Deutsche Bank will accept bids and identify a clearing price for each auction. If investors do not have an account with Deutsche Bank, they may be able to participate in the auction through their own brokers, as a network of several dozen brokerage firms will be invited to aggregate suitable client orders and submit them to Deutsche Bank. The warrants are complex securities that are not suitable for all investors.

Prospective investors will be able to obtain copies of the prospectuses relating to these securities, when available, from Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Prospectus Department, Harborside Financial Center, 100 Plaza One, Jersey City, New Jersey 07311-3988, telephone: 1-800-503-4611.

Terms like "bookrunning manager sound a lot like a numbers-racket is that your point?"

No, just an interesting way to get warrant positions in JPM, Capital One and TCF...

Dead Banker List

Unemployed private eye?  Fired financial researcher?  You may be interested in a list of 'Dead Bankers" that has shown up at Scribd....find the common elements and report back.  Expect there will be two lists - one which is tied up to this side or that, and then the others in response/reaction from another group.

I'd do this myself, but remodeling frenzy is in full swing.

For Whom the Dell Falls...

Not a happy quarter for the Round Rockers, but bound to improve...yada yada...global recovery...yada, yada....good times are just ahead?

Inflation to the Streets

Dozens of students have been arrested at UC Davis for protesting 32 percent tuition hikes.

While one of the signs read "Save the humanities" (I'm sure they meant Save the Manatees, and they just screwed up the spelling) what UC Davis really ought to focus on is saving the math department which needs to be beefed up in order to excusify 32 percent increases in a 5% (or less) inflation environment.  Why, anything other than capitulation to a 5% increase would mean either the University or the Federal Government has completely lost track of inflation realities.

I leave it to you who you'd believe: UC Davis claims of soaring costs or BLS claims to the contrary...hard call, I know.  But one of 'em ain't shooting straight, near as I can figure....or both.

¿Por Que?

"Work site arrests of illegals fall dramatically" says a report in the Washington Times.  Why this would happen seems clear to me - no it's not a tolerance policy - just the Border Patrol has more important stuff to do - like stop people 99 miles inside the US Border in the Northeast and put them in a national database...got it?  You really need more fluoride.  Sheesh!

Climate Change to Increase Prostitution?

Yep - so goes the logic of a UN official:  climate change wrecks farming and fishing and drives people to any other sources of income like dangerous work and prostitution.

While this comment was directed at the Philippines, might also explain California and....and....most people have this habit called eating.

Ark Notes

About now, people in Britain are maybe wondering (Britain hit by floods after record rainfall) whether the promise by God not to destroy the world by flood again is somehow being breached. 

Common sense (or nearly such):  If you check the fine print, that warranty wasn't first written in English and applied only to a small marketing area the Middle East.  Your results may vary, see insert for details, offer void where prohibited... Don't ask Noah, ask NOAA.  Besides, Britain is not part of 'the world' - it's a Crown entity.  Sorry. 

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Coping: With the Retiring Mogambo

Nearly the worst thing imaginable has happened to the global pharmaceutical industry:  My

 esteemed colleague - The Mogambo Guru - has made plans to cut back his meds and spend more time on the golf course.

This all came to light when a couple of readers passed on "Pssst!  The Mogambo is quitting!"

Instantly, I fired up the teletype to Mogambo Headquarters - we keep a highly classified private network of venerable model 28-KSR teletypes (thanks for asking) once used for the Washington-Moscow hotline connected between hooked up us.  Since Moscow has moved operations to Washington and Venezuela, and we picked up the surplused units cheap...

"Dear Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) George,

Well, since you asked, I have not officially retired, but I originally went on a short vacation, and then it just morphed into not working, and now I am giving retirement a try, which is interesting since I am still in Phase One of retirement, the one where I really get serious about playing golf well as part of the Stupid Mogambo Plan (SMP) that I will get so good, so suddenly, that I will, like the meteor that killed the dinosaurs, come literally out of nowhere and eliminate the hell out of all competition utilizing a "Tap-In Birdie Every Time" approach that I have yet to develop or even figure out how in the hell I can do such a thing, but which ought to bring in, oh, say $39.95 a pop as a DVD ("It's a 50 dollar value!").

I also intend to make a lot more money winning golf tournament after golf tournament, make even MORE money from milking lotsa, lotsa moolah from the lusciously lucrative product endorsements, become a media darling where I habitually hobnob with cute Hollywood starlets and famous celebrities, and drive a really nice car, too.

Being naturally suspicious and paranoid, of course, I assume that you are ingratiating yourself so that I will introduce you to my future Hollywood friends or let you borrow my aforementioned nice car.

No promises, you understand, but it's a deal! Thanks!

And as to the question "Will I write again before the Mother Ship arrives and takes me back to my home planet where I can escape the bankrupting stupidities of a deficit-spending leftist government financed by the loathsome Federal Reserve's suicidal creation of excess money and credit made possible only by their laughable neo-Keynesian econometric imbecilities?" I hope not! Hahahaha!

So, good luck to us both, George!

-Mogambo

Prediction:  Once the Mogambo figures out there are course marshals, he's throw down his sticks and get back to writing...such is his fear of rule enforcement. 

Or, if he really does get famous and the Retired Financial Stars Tour stops at Pine Dunes, my home course ( played exactly once so far),  I'll bounce for a round.  But only Monday-Thursday - the same offer I extended to president Obama.

Hey!  Here's a great idea: What about a three-some? 

Mr. Ure's Flu-Like Symptoms

So there I was last night - pondering whether to eat dinner, since I had just spent a good hunk of Thursday afternoon playing "shopping with Lola" except of course it was Elaine, not Lola, but that was the only difference I could find.  Run from this store to that, wait around for inspiration on which thing to buy - then failing that, another dash to another store, only to arrive home past dark to wrestle a hundred pounds of second vanity and sink off the pickup and onto the deck which was the closest spot to the project.

Somewhere along the way I had started to develop what are for me classic signs that something wasn't quite right.  A slight ringing in the left ear, touch of a sore throat - not distinct, more like an awareness of it, and a few passing flashes of 'Gee, is the heat turned up?"

Since there is far too much going on getting construction finished before T-day at the ranch to take time out to be sick (I'm convinced busy people get sick less often, anyway) I applied my normal 'just-in-case' which although not guarantees are offered,; seems to work:

• I started with a zinc tablet since zinc lozenges are supposed to be good for colds.

• Then I had a glass of Italian vitamins (Paisano) since grape juice is a fine source of reversartrol, anti-oxidants, and vitamin C.

• Since it's not good to drink on an empty stomach, a couple of lour tortillas with a huge helping of melted Mozzarella cheese that I told myself was a quesadilla but not quite.

• Since the cheese is a little salty, more Italian vitamins.

• And as long as things are going into the mouth, a Co-Q-10.

About here it was confirmed that I really had the start of something because usually 8-10 ounces of wine and a quesadilla and I feel something of effects.  But, when coming down with something - or just outright sick - the effects of salutatory alcohol disappear.  Not good - but not a waste of the Italian vitamins, since I use them as an important diagnostic tool.

I made note to mention this diagnostic sequence since it's a little different than the EMT SOAP approach (subjective, objectives, assessment, and plan of treatment) that goes into life support.

Oh, sure, Western medical figures a BP cuff, thermometer, pulse oximeter and a 3-lead ECG backed up with O2 and an AED is how medicine is done, but it's a lot of work when for something basic, two glasses or wine and getting in touch with yourself can get there.  And no question, orange tongue depressants to look at the 'something' in the throat is much less satisfying than a quesadilla.

At any rate, my self-SOAP done, I augmented my plan with the following:

• 2-5 grams of vitamin C since vitamin C is one of the wonder drugs of the world.

• Along with that 2 Benadryl's since best I can recall, it's an H1 blocker and if I was getting anything serious (like swine) it'd be harder to storm with H1 blocked.

Next up on the list was 8+ hours of sleep and a system recheck.  Which I did at 5 AM today and honestly, except for a touch of 'feel slow after Benadryl' effect, the throat is normal, the only flash of heat-feeling was from drinking 600  ml (2+cups) of scalding hot coffee and no runs, drips, or aches.

Good news and bad:  On the one hand, further symptoms would have indicated more sleep, but on the other, no rest for the wicked.  Since I feel great, I must be wicked, which means I must get more stuff done today.

Darn shame:  My next level of treatment is a super-hot shrimp curry over rice with the objective of suppressing TNFa (curcumin), accompanied by a bit more wine (reversartrol) but just a bit, and depending of symptomology, move to an H2 blocker like Zantac but being very aware & careful to remember that Zantac is different from Zyrtec.  Again, with H1 & H2 blocked, I figure cytokine storm risk would go down - but this is only my thinking and IS NOT MEDICAL ADVICE.

This would be followed by either very hot buttered rum or hot Southern Comfort and water, or the old sailing warmer-upper  Hot Yukon Jack and water, while snuggled under plenty of blankets since higher temps is one way to kill some bugs and it seems worth a chance.

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A couple of readers have been asking about my approach to flu-like symptoms, so there it is.  No  mercury-based preservatives, no egg or canine by-products.  Toss in a good book for periods between sleep (I've got a half dozen on the night stand already) and bring it on.  I could use the break.

Financial Enlightenment

Been thinking over LED, fluorescent lights and such - pondering this:

"Your speaking of light bulbs!!! Do you remember the LIFE TIME Bulbs. I had one in the bathroom that lasted 20 years, and one in the garage that is doing better than that. Imagine the savings there. So what happened to them? They seemed pretty green(cash) to me!!!! Maybe we need a company to bring them back or the Gov't!!!

Having just had a couple of screw-in fluorescent lights go out after only a year or two of use, I got myself to thinking that one of these mornings I should fire up a spreadsheet and see where the breakeven points are for energy lighting on a KWHr annual basis. 

Seems to me that a 50-watt light bulb will burn for (pencil?) 20-hours for 11-cents worth of power. So if the price different is $8, then if the fancy light doesn't last at least x hours,  then....

At this point, I drift off into thinking about two trains, one leaving Chicago and the other leaving New York....OMG I'm have a quadratic equation relapse!  Quick, where's my reversartrol liquid?

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Send your comments to george@ure.net

The UrbanSurvival Mall:

"Live on $10,000" A Year

With another round of layoffs due to start later this month...a round which will start to axe many of the middle managers who have managed to avoid the HR grenades...might I suggest a preemptive tactical move?  Voluntarily dropping your lifestyle back a bit, since we're all being marched down that road by either circumstances or some out-of-control-PTB types who write checks to Washington lobby and to anti-reformers in California!  A good starting point, at least if you've still got $10-bucks is my e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left...  Click here for the index and details.

MyGroPonics

My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics.  It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight).  Sound interesting?  It's just $10 bucks here...

Pass It On

The business model of this website is base Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh?  Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course....

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 Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

Thursday November 19, 2009 

Testing the "Ure Ratio"

Over the past couple of days, several people have written in saying the Ure Ratio may not be working.  If you've been paying attention, the ration says that the move in the price of gold times 10 is about where the Dow should go.

We ought to see a fine test of the ratio at the open this morning since the price of gold is down about $5 bucks as I write this, but check the gold price at the top of the page just before the open to see how it works out.  The ratio is not a hard & fast thing; just an indicator of how I shade my expectations for the day.  It's not flawless, but it's a start.

A bit of a comeback in the outlook after the unemployment number for the week came in unchanged:

"In the week ending Nov. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 505,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 505,000. The 4-week moving average was 514,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average of 520,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.3 percent for the week ending Nov. 7, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 7 was 5,611,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,650,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,711,500, a decrease of 83,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,795,000. "

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One reason the Dow may falter a bit today is president Obama is suggesting that the nation faces a growing chance of a double-dip recession if government doesn't rein in mounting public debt.  My guess is someone sent him the Meredith Whitney interview on CNBC and he's shading expectations. 

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The problem with government debt is that there's really no way to rein it in since a good chunk of it is likely our own government, intervening through proxies, to buy our own paper - thus sustaining the illusion that there's demand for dollar-denominated debt.

A visit to the TreasuryDirect website reveals the present Public Debt to the Penny is running a little more than $12-trillion dollars.  While once-upon-a-time the US Gross Domestic Product was running $13-trillion, that was before the National Foreclosure and Layoff Festival kicked into high gear from 2007 onward - featuring for your dining and dancing pleasure the jobless recovery we're in now.  Nowadays, I expect real GDP is down around $11.5 trillion, but that's just a dart because I'm too lazy to really pencil it out.

My point is that GDP = Public Debt is not a good thing.  It would be like you (and your spouse if you have one) having to work an entire year to pay off all your debts; made especially comical because of all the federal level talk about 'balanced budgets' which sorry to report ain't never been real in the first place.

The only reason the Capitol reprobates can get away with such nonsense is the off budget accounting tricks, something the Heritage Foundation has been harping on since 1985... but of course, they don't need to raise campaign dough, so there you have it.

Swell Healthcare

I don't mean swell like 'good'...I mean swell as in twisted knee...or in this case a twisted healthcare bill that's up to 2,074 pages.  But as a Politico report notes, 14 pages of that is index...

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You know, it occurred to me that someone could try to read everything put together in Washington - and they would never catch up, even with a speed reading course...

Simple Answers Department

Word that "California requires TVs to be more energy efficient" got me to putting on my inventor's cap this morning.

Then it came to me - in a flash - we just unplug them and presto!  100% energy efficient!

Yeah, yeah, won't work in California because people would have to learn to read (dangerous step toward critical think, that).

Drips of News

Some mornings I think I should be writing for SNL or a good standup comic.  There are so many stories that scream "this could be funny!"  Take, for example Time's story that "Obama Would Fire Afpak Leaker."   

The comic stands up to announce:  "President won't take a leak..."  (rim shot)

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Please: This is serious stuff (or nearly so) what with president Karzai pledging strides in security and corruption fighting.  It's oh such a ...you know...set-up to surging kinda thing.  Sit on your wallet.

Doing Blow

So what is coverage like in the MSM when Washington and Oregon have 100+ MPH winds and hurricane force winds and the largest waves ever recorded on the coast?  Nada...zilch.  Did anyone notice more wind and rain is coming?  Not outside federal region X.  Hurricane force winds again on the Oregon coast is in store.

But people on the East Coast are still gah-gah over Tropical Storm Ida...which brings me to considering how the Northwest could change its profile a bit: Start naming Pacific storms.

Maybe even come up with a snazzy new name for them:  I kinda like the word "Hurphoon" although I could live with "Tycane".  And then name them after political leaders so the idea of wind comes across really clearly... 

Dueling Santa's Department

See this morning's article in the NY Post about how Wal-Mart and Amazon are playing discounter roulette. 

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Reminds me:  My legal counsel suggested that I retract my suggestion about leaking a couple of Vicodin and a glass of water in lieu or cookies and milk this year. 

"Branding issues plus offering medical advice on a scheduled drug is a no-no." 

OK, I countered, how about a couple of aspirin?  "Nope, may cause stomach problems if not taken with food." 

Back to cookies?  "Yeah, probably the best idea but be sure and leave the box out in plain sight in case Santa has any allergy sensitivities and see if you can get cookies that aren't made in a facility that processes peanuts and tree nuts, just to be on the safe side."

I'll put a bottle of Benadryl out, but unopened.  What if the fat guy is diabetic?  "If you've left the cookie box out, we should be safe - if Elaine bakes them, have her leave the recipe out and circled but not too big a concern since there's protein in the milk.  Might leave a piece of cheese, just to be safe there...and no more than three cookies, or we open up to exposure for OCD food suits..."   

This is how my days go lately.

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Coping:  When are Couples "Married"?

My friend Howard Hill (web site) who writes most excellent from the insider perspective on markets - having been there - sent me a note today wondering in all marriages in Texas are illegal.  Took me a couple of seconds of reading the McClatchy papers web site "Texas' gay marriage ban may have banned all marriages" to figure out what he was talking about, but the long & short seems to be that in their zeal to make one kind of marriage illegal, the other may have been screwed up.

But, it raises an important question about when people are married.  Seems there are tons of definitions out there - depending on whether you're looking at it from a governmental standpoint, a tax standpoint, common law, civil law, Church law, credit laws, and all that before you get into the basics of  (as "Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure" points out) being excellent to one another.

I hadn't worried too much the matter of legality until reading this thing in the news today.  Now I'm wondering if Elaine and I are 'legally' married here in Texas.  The problem is that we were married in Victoria, British Columbia, in a park on the inner harbor with the Empress Hotel in the background. We had other ideas, but knot-tiers tend to hang out near big cities, so logistics of getting one to go climb a mountain and do the vows on a mountaintop at sunrise (which I'd thought about) wasn't as simple.

You see the problem?  We're for-sure married when we go to Canada - except in Quebec, who knows what they're doing.  Since it's all properly registered, I never thought any further than that...

But this gives me a wonderful idea for a new intrusive government operation that will create lots of government employment, justify more record-keeping, and impose more social control in the holy name of "Security":  Maybe what's coming is marriage police.

Yessir - think of it.  Thousands of 'marriage auditors' could be hired and that would mean a huge database - so one (or more) of those would have to be built.  Cars to get these people around to various interviews, layer upon layer of management - yes, I see perhaps 100,000 jobs directly7 and indirectly coming from this - why it's a grand economic stimulus.

Not that the problem of who should be the 'marriage police' wouldn't be controversial; IRS has the most skin in the game from a money standpoint, but Census has already been in nose-counting and going to people's homes.  You saw the Census news release Wednesday?

"The U.S. Census Bureau today opened its last of three data capture centers that will process 2010 Census questionnaires as they are mailed back by households across the nation next spring. The 212,000 square-foot facility in Phoenix will bring more than 2,800 jobs to the area.

“Processing the 2010 Census questionnaires accurately and safely at the data capture centers is a crucial step to a successful census,” said Census Bureau Associate Director for Decennial Programs Arnold Jackson. “The responses from each form processed at the facility will help provide a complete count of the nation's population and a new portrait of America.”

Which reminds me - and don't tell anyone else this - but since we've got about 30-acres here, I thought we might jack up our house and move it a thousand feet from its present location after the Census is done - no clue why they would need my home's GPS location, unless its so a SWAT team should ever need to be dispatched, or so aliens looking to harvest fat old white guys as hors d' orderves will know where to go to harvest them...but that's another worry.

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I suppose I'm tilting at windmills on this marriage police concept.  But since someone sent me a copy of US Patent # 6,971,031 ("National identification card system and biometric identity verification") which is "A method and system for preventing or obstructing a person from negotiating a transaction with another person, group, or entity in a population, include verifying and crosschecking the identity of the person and the stratus of the national identification card carried by the person, as a prerequisite to negotiating or entering into a transaction such as...." and it goes on from there, perhaps I'm not just tilting, after all.

The concern is underscored when you watch the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions - which seems focused this week on how to co-opt the small family farms in America to hand over the reigns of food production to corpgov agribiz.

Of course, the senate can be expected  to take up issues like 'food safety' because elections are costly things and contributions from agribusiness are more than from the home average working folks.  But I'm seeing the outline of some more here:  The reinforcing of the foundations of the Command Economy - where you & I get commanded by those who we're told are working for us.

There's a great - slow motion- shift underway:  A patent issued on technology to restrict people's right to free exchange, subtle jabs at the family farms, and on top of the so-called voluntary National Animal Identification Act.... it all sounds worrisome to me: 

I've got a terrible memory but I don't remember the Framers of the great Constitution putting in a provision that freedom has to be so closely regulated - seems the concepts are diametrically opposed.  Then again, Elaine & I thought we were married but now....who knows?

Making Light of Things

A nice contributed report showed up this morning on home lighting progress made by a reader:

"I changed most of the bulbs to florescent several years ago and noticed a 1/3 drop in electric usage.

Florescent comparisons. 20w uses 3w 60w uses 13w 200w uses 40w

I went from 200w incandescent in the basement to 200w florescent which use 40w. I had to get rid of the dimmer switches. After working 2 jobs for 3 years I now have the job called "Light Switch Controller." Telling everyone to turn off the lights or turning them off myself has resulted in 12% less electric usage and we even changed to an electric oven (gas stove with electric oven) and bought a electric dehydrator.

Then recently I changed out bulbs in multiple bulb fixtures. For example the ceiling fan with the 3, 4 or 5 bulb fixture that had all 60w florescent I changed one to a 20w and unscrewed the others only until they turned off so only the 20w is on. This works well for most applications and if we need more light just turn in as many of the other bulbs you need. I found that instead of five, 13w fluorescents (65w) we got by on one 3w most of the time, especially when you have lights on just to walk through the house. And if we needed more light we tightened one or two additional instead of all. With incandescent and dimmer switches I could adjust the light level as needed. With fluorescents the dimmable type are expensive, there are 3 way, I have one. I found the florescent light annoying at times and found myself trying to block the glare. I went through each room and hallway and looked closer at the light levels and room light needs. Initially I replaced a 60w incandescent with a 60w florescent without any though to real lighting needs. By looking closer at the lighting and replacing bulbs with smaller or combination bulbs I reduced electric consumption. This is recent so I do not have data but I can give examples. This is an example based on the changes not my real savings since the lights are not on always and sometimes more bulbs are on than at other times. Maximum wattage reduction 310w.

I bought a new bicycle this year. Courtney needed a new larger bike and we could not find her size, one we liked or what we were willing to pay. Well as a result we finally found Courtney a new bike and everyone else also. I haven't ridden my bike often for years. It is a very nice bike but it is the racing style and was not comfortable anymore. Maybe if I rode more often I would adjust but I decided to get a more upright bike. (If you think you are still in shape try keeping up with the kids on their bikes.)

Anyway when I bought my bike I saw 1w LED for night riding, they were blinding. (Planet Bike Superflash) I was looking on eBay for the bike lights cheaper and came across 110 volt LED's and purchased a few to try. I was impressed when I got them and have since ordered a variety more to try to better determine which size works best. They come from China and are a bit more expensive than florescent. A 50w LED uses 5w compared to the 60w florescent using 13w. There are also 1w to 2w LED's at 21, 24, 48, 60, 72 LED. You know what I did next! I replaced the 3w florescent with the 1w LED and the 13w with the 5w. They produce a bright very white light but still have a far amount of glare unlike the dimmed incandescent. I put one 90 LED bulb on a dimmer and it works as a high low switch, only two choices. When you turn on the switch the LED lights dimmer than when the switch is all the way up but there is no variation in between. For example the light we leave lit in the bedroom once it gets dark until I go to sleep has been on since 5pm and it is now 2am. The florescent was using 3w and the led now uses 1w that's 18w so far today. I have not received all the bulbs I ordered yet and I just received some today so the change to LED is new. The change to LED is a couple of months after the florescent change mentioned above so I will not be able to determine the difference between them. I do like them they provide adequate lighting. Last months electric bill $108, of course rates are also a factor. It will be better to determine after one year.

Let's see if I can't get those soda can furnaces built.

I paid for a lighting up grade at the laundry; only it was done the same day as the new dryers were installed. I was expecting $150 to $180 month saving in electric which would have paid for the upgrade but so far $0 savings. The electric bill is exactly the same. Maybe the dryers use more electric than the old ones. They have 2 motors, the old ones only had 1. If that is the case than I am saving but I do not see it.

That's it for now.

Light controller signing out"

Very encouraging report.  I've been using a 48-led desk lamp for about 6-months now although the payback for the higher price means it won't be profitable until long after I'm dead...

My last venture into decreasing energy use was simply turning off lights resulted in an increase in medical bills from running into things and falling down and getting stitches was more than the energy savings.  I'm hoping there's something in the mega-long health care bill to cover "injuries due to energy saving devices" but somehow  I doubt it. 

Flu shot Update

I went to the doctor's office yesterday (normal visit) and the doc asked me if I wanted a swine flu shot.  "No, thanks."  How about a pneumonia vaccine shot?  "Pass".  How about....and the list went on.  He finally shrugged and said something like you're one of those if it ain't broke, don't fix it guys....presactly.

Want to see something interesting, go watch video "M.D. Retracts H1N1 Vaccine Advice after Reading Insert."  No, this is not medical advice....viewing suggestion.

And Most Important of All:

Only 36 days until Christmas or 1128 days until 12/21/2012.  Depending on your outlook.

Wednesday November 18, 2009

CPI: Up Again

If you were waiting for a world-ender deflation to strike, forget it:  CPI is still going up so that's one sign that deflation is being held at bay:

"On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The index has decreased 0.2 percent over the last 12 months on a not seasonally adjusted basis.

The seasonally adjusted all items increase largely reflected advances in the indexes for energy and for new and used motor vehicles. The energy index rose for the fifth time in the last six months, advancing 1.5 percent as the indexes for gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, and electricity all increased. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October, the same increase as in September. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for new vehicles both rose sharply and together they accounted for over 90 percent of the increase in the index for all items less food and energy. The indexes for airline fares and medical care also increased, while the shelter index was unchanged and the indexes for apparel and recreation declined.

The food index also increased in October, rising 0.1 percent after declining in two of the previous three months. The index for food away from home increased slightly, while the food at home index was unchanged. Within the food at home group, the index for dairy and related products rose significantly, while the fruits and vegetables index declined for the fourth straight month."

I spent a little time in the BLS data archives this morning (hence a somewhat shorter report) and threw together some numbers that are pretty interesting.

The revealing part of the following table is that the ONLY reason that the year-on-year CPI numbers look anything like restrained price inflation is that the CPI dropped by almost 3% over the November-December period last year.  If you turn around and look at the cumulative inflation since the last December when those declines were replaced with small advances, then one can build a case for a big jump in the numbers over the next few months as those minus signs get backed out.  (Yellow highlight is a dart throw at the increases I'd expect, gas prices going up, yada, yada, yada...)

Those projections are conservative as the Dickens. Of course, who heaven only knows what will happen with "corrections" -- as usual, the devil is in the details.  It's well know fact in this part of Texas that the devil's a statistician when he's not stoking fires elsewhere, sending out junkmail & spam, or doing his work inside the Beltway.

Pay Attention to Whitney

That the market has been on a fine tear since the March lows is beyond a doubt.  That I moved to the short outlook prematurely is also correct.  But, what's the old saying?  "Even a broken watch is right two times a day..."  As we're now seeing the averages in Robin Landry's target range, we should be ready to plunge back down and test the March lows but the specific trigger is not yet in sight.

Setting off a bonfire of the equities is something I've always thought of sort of like fire starting.  When the market has just done a major correction and is bouncing, another major down move takes a fair bit of doing.  Like trying to start a fire on a rainy day in the woods when there is no tinder about.   But at the market reaches certain points, the fire task becomes easier.  Some days it's like lighting a normal campfire.  But then there are days - like now - when it seems the least little spark could set off a major collapse of prices.

All this is shared since one of the few people I track closely outside my own circle of friends is Meredith Whitney who was on CNBC Monday saying she hasn't been this bearish in a year.

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Another realist the herd seems not to hear is Nouriel Roubini who's also been saying lately that Americans should be ready for more downside to come.

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As I've said before, about the only reason I can come up with for the market moving up is that the market may be changing pricing regimen from some (wonky) relationship with earnings to 'fixed assets as inflation hedges' which may have been Warren Buffett's BN acquisition motivation and which is about the only thing that makes sense to me on pricing:  The replacement cost of plant, equipment and market share has to be rung up somehow in all this.

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The dollar dropped this morning to the area around .666 Euro - dangerous stuff that - and I'll leave you to ponder whether I mean the .666 part or the Euro...up to you.

Percentage wise, silver has been lagging since it was once above $20 an ounce when gold was around $10,40 a good while back.  Still under $19 when I looked this morning, so short term silver will either want to play 'catch up' with gold, or gold will come down, or the gold/silver ration will become even more extreme.  Choose one - or several.

Led by Geniuses

"Obama: Too much debt could fuel double-dip recession."  Gee, yah think?

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Obviously, California is still looking for the mythical free lunch as the once Golden State has becoming something else...with a $21-billion+ budget shortfall.

Taxing Marijuana Questions

Interesting decision out of Colorado that "Medical marijuana dispensaries subject to sales tax, retail license laws."  Even leaving aside that the AG's office would potentially benefit from the additional revenue into the state's coffers as a conflict, there's a more pertinent question here:  How are people popping Big Pharma backed pills treated:  Do they pay sales taxes on meds in Colorado?

The answer is the AG is trying to treat medical marijuana differently that other prescriptions which are tax exempt in Colorado.  Wonder if the pharmaceutical outfits made campaign contributions?

Speaking of Drugs

"Failed anti-depressant drug could be 'women's Viagra' " says a report out Tuesday.  No, it's not ecstasy - that names already been taken...

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Coping: With Cell Phone Madness

Despite my protests, seems the cell phone industry will continue to grow, since most people are not conscious enough to define what is pertinent information to real-world life and what's not. 

The latest round of 'social media' simply capitalized on the willingness of people to shun the unpleasant and pursue the frivolous, which is fine, since it makes being focused a lot more rewarding than if everyone was not distracted.

In India today, the word is that they will soon have 1-billion mobile phones.  That's three times as many phone users as there is population in these United States - an amazing feat of marketing.  Why, it's now possible to go into a store and hear personal details of almost anyone's life if you just follow them around the aisles a bit.  Crazy, huh?

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If you want a good project that has the potential to turn you into a millionaire, try to figure out the next appliance that will be put into cell phones. I trust you see the progression, right?  You start with a simple phone.  Then you add a tiny keyboard for testing - and then a camera which even sour George admits do take pretty good pictures - and emails them from wherever.

But what's the next big thing to be added?  What runs on electricity, is small and can be effectively battery-powered?  No, I won't go into sex toys since this is a PG-rated site, but it did occur to me that Norelco could come out with a shaver-phone.  Toss in a camera and you could email your twits a picture of yourself before and after.

But wait - that's already on the market as the Cool758 Razor-Smartphone.

Hmmm....small, electric-powered, eh?  How about an electric can opener phone?  Maybe a coffee-grinder phone?  Or, how about a phone that doubles as an electric screwdriver?  Now we're getting somewhere.

Since the phones already have a vibrating function, seems like the R&D boyz at Black & Decker shouldn't have any trouble making a Sander-Phone.  MagLite has to have a high-powered LED flashlight phone in the works since that'd be a sure-fire hit with our friends in law enforcement.  I only recently found out you can buy a glass-breaking end cap for a MagLite.  (See: MagLite D Cell Flashlight glass breaking Tail Cap X Cape Cap ) Shows how far behind the curve I am, huh?

I actually came up with what I thought would be a 'killer ap' - putting the remote control for the TV into a cell phone, but there are already downloadable aps for that.  Besides, there's work being done now using image recognition software that would let you control your TV with a wave of your hand. 

This kind of visual recognition software has some interesting potential:  Make a big shrug and the TV could flip to a news channel.  Or, make the football time-out sign and TiVo pauses.  Or the sign of the cross brings up the 700 Club and so forth. How about this: Pretend to swing an imaginary baseball bat and up would pop ESPN.  Maybe a "Aw, get outta here" wave would turn off O'Reilly, Hannity, or whoever's disagreeing with me at the moment....Why this opens up whole next potentials for exercise in the media room, doesn't it?  Like channeling Merlin, or something.

Figure this can't be far off - I'm already on speaking terms with wife's car - and it answers simple requests. More often than...well...that's another story.

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I know there has to be a limit to how closely marketing genius can mold the man-machine interface but I keep getting stuck on power density of the battery pack as a stumbling block for some of my more aggressive concepts.  Like perking coffee on a cell phone or toasting a bagel...that kind of thing.

Powering up the cell phone to pop popcorn seems within reason, if you don't mind cooking yourself a bit faster.

But the real danger with cell phones is that voice recognition systems are not yet ready for the noisy primetime mobile environment.  Until that kind of functionality is perfected, the biggest threat on the roads when you're out driving about may not longer be drunk drivers.  May be texters.  More than a third of 16-17 year olds admit to texting while driving.  If the cell phone toasted bagels instead of texting, imagine how much safer we'd all be.

Archeological Question of the Day

So - got Google Earth?  Tell me what 33º12'22.82N by 103º35'04.67W is from 4000 feet or so...and why is it so close to the Roswell crash site?  Answer: government bombing range from WW II- but quite cool...

Lingo-Lango-Local

Had to run into town to pick up some material for our bathroom remodeling project and happened to chat with a local at the lumber yard.  The usual pleasantries caught be a bit off guard.  My "How you doing?" got an usual reply:  "If I was any better I'd be fartin' rainbows..." explained the feller.

I've heard a lot of answers to my "How are you today?"  Most folks mutter 'fine' and that's that.  But occasionally you get a decent answer like "Any day on this side of the lawn is a great one" or the similar "Better'n pushin up daisies..."   My personal response usually goes something like "If I was doing any better, why there'd be two of me..."

But 'rainbows'?  New one on me - thought you might find a use for it sometime.

Tuesday November 17, 2009

Port for Breakfast

Along about the middle of each month we begin one of our breakfast of champions with a short discussion of how things are going down on the docks.  I hit the press release circuit which the MainStreamMedia reports and insist (patiently) that there other-than-government sources which will tell you how the wind's blowing through the economy.

Take, for example, the October figures from the Port of Long Beach:  Inbound container traffic is down 22.4% compared with year ago levels when you look at TEU's (twenty foot [container] equivalents.  The good news - such as it is - has to be the export (outbound loaded) for October was down only 10.1%.  And the shuffling of empties has slowed, too: Down 37.6%.

Across the viaduct, the competition at the Port of Los Angeles is celebrating with headlines like "Port of Los Angeles reports strongest monthly cargo volumes for 2009 calendar year to date."

"Containers shipped through the Port of Los Angeles last month increased 10.9 percent compared to September, making October the strongest month yet for the Port this calendar year. Both containerized imports and exports reached their highest levels for 2009, with loaded outbound containers seeing an 11.8 percent rise over October 2008 volumes. Still, loaded inbound containers were 8.3 percent below October 2008 levels.

Despite a reporting period that included a weeklong observance of a Chinese holiday, the total number of Twenty-Foot Equivalent (20-foot containers or “TEUs”) imported and exported through the Port of Los Angeles in October was 647,423.70. Total container volumes were 10.9 percent above September 2009 levels; loaded imports were up 9.6 percent and loaded exports were up 7.4 percent over the previous month.

Year to date in 2009, total TEU volume is at 5,606,798.65, 15.4 percent lower than the same 10-month period in 2008. Tracking by the Port’s fiscal year beginning July 2009, container volumes are 15.2 percent lower than 2008.

Before you pop the champagne, loaded inbound containers were down 8.7% compared with 2008 and what they don't mention is that October 2008 was down about 4% from 2007...and October 2007 in turn was down more than 8%  from October of 2006...and 2006 seems like it was the last 'good' year on the LA docks, although the Port of LA press release doesn't mention that.  Calendar year 2007 was down only a tad from 2006, but from there, things headed down hill.  But don't let me rain on the statistical blip just because it's getting to the time of year when I wear a Grinch suit and scare the cats.

Heading north up the ILWU's west side, we find Oakland was down 6.7% in October and down 11.1% year-to-date.  They'd been down YTD 6.4% last year.

I've always gotten on well with longshoremen, BTW.  Interviewed Harry Bridges back during the early 70's West Coast shutdown.  Great guy and he had some fine insights into the changing relationship of workers to the ownership class like this one:

""Why should we take it upon ourselves to pick up the pieces after industry discards people for machines? Isn't it about time unions got in there before the fact to insist that there must be some obligation to people in all this?"

Between guys like Bridges (not to mention Eric Hoffer) and the gangs that used to have a boilermaker after work now and then at the old Nifty's Diner down on Harbor Island in Seattle the even trade between a day's work and a day's wages seemed in good hands.  Here lately, when I read reports about mythical productivity I wonder what legendary union leaders would have thought of imputing a productivity jump from processor speeds. 

And no, I'm not saying kind things about labor just because I've met some outstanding labor leaders.  It's because the folks who did (and still do) work in this country often have a clearer vision of the relationship between work and money than the gangs of lawyers that inhabit capitols. Which could have something to do with why the corporate types want to outsource whatever real work they can...lest their scamming be ratted out.

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Continuing up the coast, Portland hasn't figured out how to turn on the calculator yet this month.  If they figure it out today they'll maybe post October numbers here.

Tacoma is reporting foreign container traffic down 19.3% for the month with domestic down 9.3%

The Port of Seattle was up actually up 6% for the month of October, but remains down 11.9% year to date.

Take as a whole, no sign of a big recovery - some small shifts in traffic patterns, but I expect not too much overtime on the docks.  Which is worrisome when you think about it:  I've warned you before about Grim Reaper Does Christmas this year.  I can see the headlines already: "Slaying of the Sleigh!"

Instead of cookies and milk being left out for Santa this year, a glass of water and a couple of Vicodin will be more in order.

PeePeeAye

Which then moves us along to the day's next headache:  The Producer Price Numbers.  May I have the clickvelope, please?

"The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.3 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed a 0.6-percent decline in September and a 1.7-percent rise in August. In October, at the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved up 0.3 percent and the crude goods index increased 5.4 percent. On an unadjusted basis, from October 2008 to October 2009, prices for finished goods fell 1.9 percent, the eleventh consecutive month of year- over-year declines.

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Finished goods

The October increase in the index for finished goods can be attributed to higher prices for energy and food, both of which moved up 1.6 percent. By contrast, prices for finished goods other than foods and energy declined 0.6 percent.

Finished energy: The index for finished energy goods advanced 1.6 percent in October compared with a 2.4-percent drop in the previous month. Almost half of the increase can be traced to the gasoline index, which climbed 1.9 percent. Rising prices for residential electric power and liquefied petroleum gas also contributed to the advance in the finished energy goods index. (See table 2.)

Finished foods: Finished consumer food prices rose 1.6 percent in October after edging down 0.1 percent a month earlier. Accounting for about half of the increase, the index for fresh and dry vegetables jumped 24.2 percent. Higher prices for fresh fruits and melons also contributed to the advance in the finished consumer foods index.

Finished core: In October, the index for finished goods less foods and energy moved down 0.6 percent, its second consecutive decrease. Lower prices for light motor trucks and passenger cars led the October decline, falling 5.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. In accordance with usual practice, most new-model-year passenger cars and light motor trucks were introduced into the PPI in October. (See Report on Quality Changes for 2010 Model Vehicles, USDL 09-1400.)

Intermediate goods

The Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components moved up 0.3 percent in October, its third straight monthly advance. The October rise can be traced to higher prices for intermediate energy goods, which climbed 2.3 percent. By contrast, the indexes for both intermediate goods less foods and energy and for intermediate foods and feeds decreased 0.2 percent. On a 12-month basis, prices for intermediate goods fell 7.5 percent in October. This is the third consecutive month of slowing year-over-year declines following a record 15.1- percent drop for the 12 months ended July 2009. (See table B.)

Intermediate energy: The index for intermediate energy goods advanced 2.3 percent in October after falling 2.1 percent in September. About one-fifth of this increase can be traced to a 5.5-percent rise in diesel fuel prices. Higher prices for natural gas to electric utilities and commercial electric power also contributed to the advance in the intermediate energy goods index. (See table 2.)

Crude goods

The Producer Price Index for Crude Materials for Further Processing increased 5.4 percent in October after falling 2.1 percent in September. For the 3-month period ending in October, crude material prices rose 7.1 percent after advancing 4.1 percent in the 3 months ending in July. The monthly October rise was broad based, with prices for crude energy materials jumping 8.3 percent, the index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs moving up 5.2 percent, and prices for crude nonfood materials less energy increasing 0.5 percent. (See table B.)

Crude energy: The index for crude energy materials increased 8.3 percent in October. From July to October, this index rose 9.5 percent, compared with an 11.8-percent rise in the 3 months ending in July. Accounting for about sixty percent of the monthly October increase, the natural gas index moved up 16.3 percent. Higher prices for both crude petroleum and coal also contributed to the advance in the crude energy materials index. (See table 2.)

Crude foods: The index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs increased 5.2 percent in October. This index moved up 2.4 percent in the most recent 3-month period compared with a 6.0-percent decline in the previous 3-month period. In October, a 9.0-percent rise in the grains index led the advance in the crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs index. Higher prices for slaughter poultry were also a factor in this increase.

Crude core: The index for crude nonfood materials less energy rose 0.5 percent in October, and 10.4 percent for the 3 months ending in October. Similarly, for the 3 months ending in July, prices climbed 10.8 percent. A major contributor to the monthly October increase was the gold ores index, which rose 5.4 percent.

What does it all mean?  Remember (not to harp on this, but...) global synchronized inflation seems to be game on now...so that finished goods are only down 1.9% annualized YoY means what?  Printing money is again offsetting incipient deflation and we may be able to paper our way through this mess yet.  At least until the commercial paper bundles start taking down big institutions, but no point getting ahead of the play by looking at the libretto.  We just sit back and enjoy the show.

If you thought this was fun, be sure and drop by tomorrow as the Prince of Mirth unveils the CPI numbers.  Another knee-slapper, for sure...only question is whether it'll be a LOL or ROFLOL.

Market Ahead

The Dow yesterday hit an intraday high of 10,434 - which means any old time in here, things could turn down in an ugly way.  The good news is that if it's the high for this bounce off the March 2009 lows, our crash dates (37 days, 55 days, 37 trading days and 55 trading days) are all out there in January or early February, although I don't feel like playing the short side of thing.  This is NOT investment advice...

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Gold down about 8 means by the Ure Ratio the Dow oughta drop ten times that or about 80 near the open plus or minus noise traders.

With Friends Like This, 1

An NFL owner has been fined for flipping off fans. 

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Sports in general, and football & hockey in particular, have always struck me as a huge waste of time & energy.  It's thinly veiled ritualized warfare where the goal is to slam people down who get in the way (fine training for corporate life, I suppose) or beat people with sticks, which may track hockey fans into law enforcement careers.  Next time you want to get even with a crass sports owner the best payback I can think of is heading for The History Channel or Discovery and put information - not ritualized warfare into your head.

Except the last inning of the World Serious or the final 2-minutes which turns to 20 (or more) of the Super Bored.  But seriously (or mostly so) next time you're watching sports ask yourself "What's my motivation here and what am I getting out of this?"  We know you're being separated from your individuality and cash; I mean beyond that stuff...

With Friends Like This, 2

See where the governor of NY is not happy with the Obama administration for trying the 9/11 suspects in the Big Apple.

The way I've got this figured, "If you can't say something nice...don't say anything at all."  Unless, of course you've got aspirations to higher office....

Saving the Auto Industry

Politico has been counting cars - in the presidential motorcade off in China.  71-they figure it to be.  Is that excessive?  Yes...and no.  Yes if you're trying to cut greenhouse gases; no if you're secretly still bailing out the auto industry.  See how yin and yang work?

Hungry for News

Word that 17,000 children per day die for lack of food shouldn't come as a surprise.  Nor should the international conference on point in Rome. 

From the standpoint of aliens watching Ant Farm Earth I can almost hear the dialog:  "How long before they figure out this is the Feed & Breed question on the evolution test, do you think?"

I think I'll skip lunch.

Police State Notes

Our reader in the far, far northeast has a question:

"what do you think of border patrol setting up checkpoints 99 miles inside us border?

they're doing it in vt & nh on interstates 91 and 89, at White River, Vt and Lebanon, NH

so they catch a few sad illegals...

any bad guys with half a brain can scoot around the checkpoints on state roads and be on their merry way..

whats the point? sheep conditioning?

well, I got my wood split, back to stacking...

Well, as everyone knows, especially at this time of year, there's a horrible problem with immigrant hockey players sneaking into the US to work illegally.  In fact, some reports have it that as much as 10% of Canada's population has come across the border at some point to support these migrants who send money home to Canada.

Seriously (or nearly so) It points out how seriously the Obama administration is proactively preventing Main and New Hampshire from being overrun with illegals from New Brunswick.  Be careful how you answer, eh hoser?  It's not a police state.  It's a joke.

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Coping: Lingo-Lango - Drifty Tongues

"Unfriend" is the word of the year for the Oxford Dictionary folk.  Since I'm a language abuser at heart, here's their press release:

    Notable Word Clusters for 2009

    Twitter related:

    Tweeps                   Twibe
    Tweetup                  Sweeple
    Twitt                    Tweepish
    Twitterati               Tweetaholic
    Twitterature             Twittermob
    Twitterverse/sphere      Twitterhea
    Retweet

    Obamaisms:

    Obamanomics              Obamaeur
    Obamarama                Obamanator
    Obamasty                 Obamaland
    Obamacons                Obamalicious
    Obamanos                 Obamacles
    Obamanation              Obamania
    Obamafication            Obamacracy
    Obamamessiah             Obamanon
    Obamamama                Obamalypse

Despite all this, most humans use fewer than 5,000 words in a week +they r gting shrtr. Tnx2txting.

Storming Toward Winter's Arrival

Apparently, not too many people in the UK have been reading UrbanSurvival.  If they had been, somewhere along the way I would have mentioned that from a reporter or editor standpoint "news" manufacturing is a fine art.

Take weather stories (please):  Every year has a "Hottest Day of the Year" story.  Every year has a Coldest Day of the Year" headline to go with it.

Example of how this works out?  Sure: "Britain prepares for ANOTHER battering after biggest storm of the year washes out the weekend" says the Daily Mail.

The cyclical nature of news isn't something most folks devote mental processor clicks to, but it's there.  Inauguration stories repeat every four years, Congressman reelected stories continue either until they retire or are caught...so there's a rhythm to that comes with time of year.

No, it's not winter yet but already the seasonal news stories are starting to pop up. I hope the fine folks at Google's Trend Lab won't mind my borrowing this graphic to make a point...but in language and in consciousness there is a regular heartbeat to this - something anyone with cardiac medicine would recognize as a big strip on life in these United States:

What's interesting to look at is that looking at general search use of Christmas seems to be in some kind of long-term trend.  When I tell you "Grim Reaper Does Christmas" this year is likely in the cards, it's not from some woo-woo science...just continue the trend and what do you find?

T'ain't pretty.

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38º on the north deck as I strolled over to the office this morning...Both the cats are coming into the office in the early morning hours when I get up.  Pusscilla sleeps on the rug in front of the drum set.  Zeus prefers a chair (covered with a paper towel to keep cat dander & tag-alongs off it). 

Their presence has kept me from some of my usual holiday is coming stress relievers such as banging on the snare drum... recently forgot Z was in the room and slammed some paradiddles and crash rides  (you do know what rudiments are to novice drummers, right?).  Never seen a cat move so fast.

Ever since, all I have to do is look at the drumsticks and Zeus gets worried.  So, for now, the drum bashing is on hold, which seems to please both cats.  Something about Silent Night.

Monday November 16, 2009

Spiky Monday Led by Bozos

Gold popped up to nearly $1,135 overnight.  But then again, since I told you last week that the G-20 was engaging in something tantamount to 'global synchronized inflation' that would be the logical outcome, wouldn't it?

So if this is really in play now, what could we anticipate?  Home prices falling slower or even rising  (why, lookie here...act surprised!) , the G-20 bumbling and stumbling about, and APEC making more 'pronouncements' about working together, firming oil prices, and since the season to be jolly is almost here, perhaps a premature partridge in a pear tree.

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The World is beset by a cast of bozos who don't seem to understand Occam's Razor, very well. Occam's says  in so many better constructed words than I can parse together at this ungodly hour, that given a multitude of possible answers that are increasingly complicated, the right answer will likely be among the most (if not the) most simple.

Take for example the idea of climate change.  APEC leaders agreed this weekend that the Copenhagen climate treaty was probably out of reach.  Fine, and so it is.  The question someone ought to be asking is "Why?"

Some of the reasons cited sounded absurd:  We'll not to this one because we want to get something more comprehensive down the road.  That's govspeak for "We can't drive the automatic transmission version, but we're gonna buy the 6-speed version later."  Like I said: Led by bozos.

So, what did the changeling say about this in 2008?  "Delay is no longer an options..."  Right....Guess some things have changed, huh?  Like political winds, maybe?

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What's really going on under all the environmental ink is that too many people (globally) are waking to the real agenda which is being pushed by the UN, G-20 and all the rest:  Global Government. 

This is a topic the John Birchers were warning about what?  40-years ago...and here we are with arguably the most socialist government ever to haunt Washington and the John Birch Society was right after all.  Far right sometimes, but right is right.... 

But THE biggest stumbling block to a global coup  by the bankster and ruler class has been a lack of money to do their dastardly deed with.  But wait!  There's movement on your (left) flank as the "UK joins G20 push for Bank Levy".

Main point of this story is the concept of a global bank tax in order to fund future bailouts owned by The Chosen Few.  Pass....

The clear and present danger is that some super-organization that's NOT DIRECTLY ELECTED begins to tax everyone in the world.  Don't know about you, but I don't remember voting on G20 membership, do you?  But that's how the plan's gonna roll, and the great (socializing) of world government needs a funding source and control of the global currency picture.

I'm not trying to sound alarmist at all this, but that's how it's all rolling out:  A global synchronized inflation to beggar the working people's of the world.

As a free man, I don't recall anything under the Constitution that provided for the US to contribute to - let alone join - some global government...but it's early yet.  Was G20 membership voted on anywhere? I can't recall...

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A trip over to Alexa.com reveals the www.jbs.org web site is ranked 31,824 in the US, while the

www.socialistworker.org sports a ranking of 58,479, so one would think that there are still more right-thinking (yes, meant both ways) people left (yes, another meant both ways, bad Monday puns are my thing today...) in America.

But the real battle lines are a lot different through issues hijacking.  The way this works is that the globalists throw money silently into the coffers of this group, or that, and then use the organization as an issues manipulator.  There are lots of so-called 'green' groups that have higher ratings that either the JBS or the SW web sites and it's here that social influencers can operate behind the scenes on issues like climate, carbon, or whatever.

Related Data Point: Al Gore speech in Florida draw 800 pro and 200 supporter this weekend.

What Gore et al are pushing for (among other items)  is carbon credit trading because without monetizing climate control, it's not going to happen.  However, given money, or taking it,  then anything is possible in the scramble to control the planet.  Which, in case you're asleep, is the uber macro picture of what's going on here on Ant Farm Earth.

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Remember, from a "power to control" standpoint, the objective is to get a system of global taxation in place which is 'above direct control of the people'.  Accomplish that and you smash down the barriers of nationhood and you can install World Government.

Related Data point: Interpol now has its own passport:

"SINGAPORE – INTERPOL today issued its first ever passports which will enable Heads of National Central Bureaus (NCBs) and staff to travel internationally without requiring a visa when assisting in transnational investigations or urgent deployments to incidents.

Two countries, Pakistan and Ukraine, have already agreed to waive visa entry requirements for INTERPOL passport bearers, recognizing that those individuals will be travelling on behalf of the organization in the furtherance of international police co-operation.

Without the delay of visa processing procedures, any INTERPOL team can be immediately deployed to scenes of terrorist events, major crimes or natural disasters and officials from NCBs can easily cross borders to assist in fugitive extraditions. "

But wait!  Did I miss something?  I don't remember voting on allowing anything other than US law enforcement to operate within the US...and maybe they don't, but the operant  three letter word of the day is YET.

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What seems to be emergent from the fog of Monday morning's headlines is the "Aha!":  There are  two meta-factions now competing for control of the world.  One could be labeled the UN, but since there are so many Third Worlders there which the globalist crowd which likes to exploit, they're now moving up the G20 and outfits like APEC to the front of the line and is grabbing as much media attention there are possible.  Look for the first global tax to emerge from one of these.  Remember that earlier story about the UK being stampeded into a bank levy which is a global tax no matter how much presstick is smeared on it by the MSM.

Here's the playbook:  Have a global synchronized inflation save (or at least hide)  the so-far jobless economic recovery and watch for the G20 to take all kinds of bows, thus reinforcing the need for that global bank taxes to fund such interventions in the future.  Simple stuff, hell, not even elegant. 

No clue why the MSM doesn't report it this way, but then I don't have a board of directors, or touchy advertisers to pander to...nor am I likely to get there at this rate....

What you're not supposed to notice now that the Dow is beginning to approach where it was back in the week of  April 12, 1999, is that one dollar in 1999 bought more than a dollar does in 2009.

If you use the Minneapolis Fed calculator for inflation, a buck's worth is up to $1.28, but that's before adding another 4 or 5 cents for this year's inflation since the year is almost a goner.  Maybe $1.32, shall we say?

But, if you go to the Shadow government Statistics web site and plug in April 1999 through August of 2009, you find the government's own numbers show a buck's worth then is now $1.52 worth - not to mention what's happened to real prices since August.

If you were expecting the skies to part and humans come to their senses, it didn't happen this weekend...nor, if I'm guessing right, will it happen this week.  But one investment decision endures - getting out of paper.

The price of gold in April of 1999 was $284 when the Dow was this high back then.  I'd say gold's done OK, huh? 

Any more, the only paper that I put my full faith in (since it hasn't been diluted over time)  is Charmin.

Retail Sales

Hmmm...kinda early for numbers, but new retail data is out:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $347.5 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 1.7 percent (±0.5%) below October 2008. Total sales for the August through October 2009 period were up 1.5 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2009 percent change was revised from -1.5 percent (±0.5%) to -2.3 percent (±0.3%).

 

Retail trade sales were up 1.4 percent (±0.7%) from September 2009, but 2.1 percent (±0.5%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 15.0 percent (±1.3%) from October 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 15.0 percent (±1.8%) from last year.

You got the weasel wording here?  Not adjusted for price changes... So let's guess prices were up 5% for the year, which would mean the unit volumes 6.7% year-on-year....which explains why they don't adjust for price in this number, doesn't it?

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GM meantime only lost $1.2 billion in Q3 - calls it progress.  Let me lose just a few million a year and I'll show you what real progress is...

All of which has the market headed for a higher opening - using the Ure Ration (Dow moves about 10X gold price change) seems to mean up around 80 early on.  Your results may vary, void where prohibited, yada yada yada.

Ukraine's Flu Mess

Media there is reporting 299 people dead so far and nearly 80,000 hospitalized.

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Around here, Elaine noticed something when she happened to visit a local Doc's office last week (lube, oil & filter time) - prominent signs that "Persons with flu-like symptoms" (including x, y, and z) should NOT come in. 

So let me see if I have this right:  If you're sick, don't go to the doc's office?  Boggles the mind...doesn't it?  Guess it explains why we're a pill-popping nation of self-medicators.  So I've herd.

Out to Launch

STS-129 - Shuttle Atlantis is going up this afternoon, unless you're in Hawaii or the West Coast, in which case right before launchtime.  Ahem....

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No, the shuttle launches don't produce as much pollution as cars. The good news is that if you're awake enough to form a question that complicated, you can skip looking yourself up in the obituary column today.

His Head in the Clouds

I refer, of course, to Hugo "Chavez asking Cubans to "bomb clouds" amid drought".  Here all this time I thought Chavez had his head somewhere else.

Texas Madness

Ken Clark, Galveston County (Houston) Commissioner (District 4) is hopping mad and if you hear a loud exchange of words on Wednesday, here's what's going on:

Clark's absolutely livid because Galveston County has apparently brought some IT people into the US from foreign countries to work on the county computer systems.  Clark told me last night that some of these jobs are paying north of $75,000 a year! 

With all the people unemployed people in America, Clark is asking what the hell is going on?  Fine question, that....fireworks due Wednesday.

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Coping: With 2012

If you saw the movie 2012 this weekend, you were not alone:  Elaine & I went Friday with one of our friends and it was a) great computer graphics...damn fine and worth seeing for that alone; b) thin on plot, but that may have been a function of overwhelming CG, and 3) a monster bringing in $225 at the box office globally.

After seeing the movie, I came home to the ranch and wondered if maybe I shouldn't call the Texas Railroad Commission this week - since they're the people in charge of capped off oil and gas wells in our neighborhood.  Since our property is literally across the street from a 600-acre drilling reserve, I figure if I can lease out part of our land to a wildcatter, maybe I could at least find one of the capped off wells to turn into a neutrino detector, like the old mine shaft in India was used for in the movie.

Not sure it would work.  With my luck, I'd strike oil, instead, although that wouldn't be such a bad thing; E & I have jokes about doing a a real-life Beverly Hillbillies...

But the movie was entertaining, although I'm not sure where all the water comes from. What's more worrisome is the alternative to 2012 which I outlined in the Saturday column for Peoplenomics subscribers. 

Of note: There's only one itsy-bitsy-teeny sunspot today  over at Space Weather and it's really, really small.  Who needs the earth's crust going walkabout when we have bozos at the helm?  We're doomed by stupidity, anyway, it seems.  No fair doing double shots for breakfast, or popping a second pill...you really oughta suffer through Monday's like the rest of us.

Car Pollution Tax Scams

The report that "Dutch drivers to pay tax on road time, not car" can be read any number of ways.  One is that it would be fair to tax people for pollution purposes depending on how much they drive.  But does that really make sense?

As I'm reading it, a lot of this global warming stuff (which is inconveniently happening to other planets in our solar system) is nothing more than a way for governments to reorganize to extract continuing tribute from taxpayers.

You see, governments globally have a problem:  They need more money to do things like bail out their banks, build their militaries and so forth.  So what do they do?  Invent global warming and tah-dah!  Excuse to play three-card Monte with taxes.

In some places - like the Netherlands case - the concept is to use technology to install a mileage tax.  In other places, like Texas, the sweetheart deals are cut to lease freeways that were paid for by taxpayers once, out to foreign outfits which reap profits and pay a piece to government.

Here's the nitty-gritty:  In both cases, you've got roads - a huge sunk cost fixed asset.  How does government monetize a fixed asset to fund its never-ending growth?  Simple!  Lease it out (Texas and other states) or install a new ongoing tax regime (Netherlands).

Of course, people would be grabbing their pitchforks is this was put before the people directly, so a slow-motion scare tactic can be used, social engineering at its best and what do you get?  Bippity Boppity Boo.

If pollution is the problem, sticking a sniffer up a car's exhaust pipe tells the truth in PPM.  GPS mileage-based taxes?  Ding ding ding: Loser.  Tax scam.  Fixed asset conversion to rent.

Optimist and Pessimists Test

You know how to tell the difference between an optimist and a pessimist?

The optimist says it's 39 shopping days till Christmas.

The pessimist says its 1131 days until 12/21/2012...

The realist says we mostly end up broke either way....

The UrbanSurvivalist says see you tomorrow morning...planning to start my Christmas Want List.