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2009 07:55 AM CST New
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free side, our usual twisted-up look at the world returns on
Monday. Have a great weekend and like Pappy used to say,
"Remember: You can only spend it once..."
that Robin Landry's target zone has been filled, the odds are
increasing daily that the run-up we have seen since March may be
toast. The gold price is down $7.50 when I looked this
morning (early) and that would seem to portend a drop of
75-points or so in the Dow.
I look at a 1-year chart of the Dow, what I see is the fast
& slow stochastics have just completed a nice double peak,
there's a divergence in the MacD, and the RSI (relative strength
indicator) has turned down.
this is the case (and this is NOT financial advise...you're on
your own there), then I would expect to see the Dow come down a
fair bit today, maybe rally next week with the usual pre-Holiday
bias and either set a nominal new high or just miss it, and then
get into serious down mode in coming weeks.
just throw a dart, I'd expect to be back at March lows in either
February or March, before a last gasp upside run which ought to
be quite playable; at least that's how I'm planning to bet the
markets. Not touching equities, but big dollar rally and
subsequent commodity decline would certainly make sense but I've
been wrong more times than I can count. Death of the
Dollar taking off for the holidays could happen from where I
Although markets move on their own - trader noise being
equivalent to meandering herds of bulls, bears, and sheep -
there usually ends up being some news event that gets blamed for
directional changes. My personal theory is that
the market is going to be very disappointed that Oprah Winfrey
is planning to leave her talk show in 2011 - and before
having me on as a guest, too - or more likely, the
semi-retirement of the Mogambo Guru (see today's coping section)
will leave the market without as much of a wall of worry to
vote this weekend on the Health Care Bill might be
mentioned, or the way
the bill sends $100 million to Louisiana in return for support
by Senator Landrieu, changes in dollar values, and the wave
of troubles in the Afghanistan War (15
killed by a motorcycle bomber today), but the prospect of
the Mogambo on a golf course scares me as much as all other
move today and Monday in gold? That'd be December
commodity options coming off the table, just so's you know.
Tungsten-filled or otherwise.
other hand, there could be a huge pop in gold prices coming
shortly, since my eagle-eyed broker JB called this morning to
say "You know, the roll-overs to future contracts has been
unusually slow...and you know what that means?"
didn't get an argument when I said "Oh, probably something like
institutions are going to be taking some extra-large
deliveries...which means either I should not sell either one of
my gold coins, or I should buy tungsten futures?
Treasury Press release caught out consulting national bank veep
19, 2009 TG-415
Treasury Announces Intent to
Sell Warrant Positions in Public Dutch Auctions
The US Department of the
Treasury today announced its intention to dispose of several
warrant positions received in consideration for investments
made under the Capital Purchase Program (CPP). Over the next
month, Treasury intends to conduct auctions to sell its
warrant positions in JP Morgan Chase & Co., Capital One
Financial Corporation, and TCF Financial Corporation.
Each of these banks has fully
repurchased Treasury's preferred stock investment. The
warrant sales anticipated over the next month, if
consummated in full, would represent Treasury's disposition
of its remaining holdings in these companies. The proceeds
of these sales will provide an additional return to the
American taxpayer from Treasury's investments in these banks
beyond the dividend payments it received on the related
Treasury intends to sell the
warrants through registered public offerings. These
offerings will be executed using a modified Dutch auction
methodology that establishes a market price by allowing
investors to submit bids at specified increments above a
minimum price specified for each auction. More detailed
guidance for the auctions will be available in prospectuses
that will be filed by the warrant issuers prior to the
opening of each auction. Treasury expects to conduct similar
auctions in the future for other warrant positions it holds
in banks that have repaid CPP investments.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
(Deutsche Bank) has been retained as the auction agent and
sole bookrunning manager for these offerings. In this role,
Deutsche Bank will accept bids and identify a clearing price
for each auction. If investors do not have an account with
Deutsche Bank, they may be able to participate in the
auction through their own brokers, as a network of several
dozen brokerage firms will be invited to aggregate suitable
client orders and submit them to Deutsche Bank. The warrants
are complex securities that are not suitable for all
Prospective investors will be
able to obtain copies of the prospectuses relating to these
securities, when available, from Deutsche Bank Securities
Inc., Prospectus Department, Harborside Financial Center,
100 Plaza One, Jersey City, New Jersey 07311-3988,
like "bookrunning manager sound a lot like a numbers-racket is
that your point?"
just an interesting way to get warrant positions in JPM, Capital
One and TCF...
Dead Banker List
Unemployed private eye? Fired financial researcher?
You may be interested in
a list of 'Dead Bankers" that has shown up at Scribd....find
the common elements and report back. Expect there will be
two lists - one which is tied up to this side or that, and then
the others in response/reaction from another group.
this myself, but remodeling frenzy is in full swing.
For Whom the Dell Falls...
Not a happy quarter for the Round Rockers, but bound to
improve...yada yada...global recovery...yada, yada....good times
are just ahead?
Inflation to the Streets
Dozens of students have been arrested at UC Davis for protesting
32 percent tuition hikes.
While one of the signs read "Save the humanities" (I'm sure they
meant Save the Manatees, and they just screwed up the spelling)
what UC Davis really ought to focus on is saving the math
department which needs to be beefed up in order to excusify 32
percent increases in a 5% (or less) inflation environment.
Why, anything other than capitulation to a 5% increase would
mean either the University or the Federal Government has
completely lost track of inflation realities.
I leave it to you who you'd believe: UC Davis claims of soaring
costs or BLS claims to the contrary...hard call, I know.
But one of 'em ain't shooting straight, near as I can
site arrests of illegals fall dramatically" says a report in
the Washington Times. Why this would happen seems clear to
me - no it's not a tolerance policy - just the Border
Patrol has more important stuff to do - like stop people 99
miles inside the US Border in the Northeast and put them in a
national database...got it? You really need more fluoride.
Climate Change to Increase
Yep - so goes the logic of a UN official:
climate change wrecks farming and fishing and drives people to
any other sources of income like dangerous work and prostitution.
While this comment was directed at the Philippines, might also
explain California and....and....most people have this habit
About now, people in Britain are maybe wondering (Britain
hit by floods after record rainfall) whether the promise by
God not to destroy the world by flood again is somehow being
Common sense (or nearly such): If you check the fine
print, that warranty wasn't first written in English and applied
only to a small marketing area the Middle East. Your
results may vary, see insert for details, offer void where
prohibited... Don't ask Noah, ask NOAA. Besides, Britain
is not part of 'the world' - it's a Crown entity. Sorry.
snip and save section ---
With the Retiring Mogambo
the worst thing imaginable has happened to the global
pharmaceutical industry: My
colleague - The Mogambo Guru - has made plans to cut back his
meds and spend more time on the golf course.
This all came to light when a couple of readers passed on "Pssst!
The Mogambo is quitting!"
Instantly, I fired up the teletype to Mogambo Headquarters - we
keep a highly classified private network of venerable
28-KSR teletypes (thanks for asking) once used for
the Washington-Moscow hotline connected between hooked up
us. Since Moscow has moved operations to Washington and
Venezuela, and we picked up the surplused units cheap...
"Dear Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) George,
Well, since you asked, I have
not officially retired, but I originally went on a short
vacation, and then it just morphed into not working, and now
I am giving retirement a try, which is interesting since I
am still in Phase One of retirement, the one where I really
get serious about playing golf well as part of the Stupid
Mogambo Plan (SMP) that I will get so good, so suddenly,
that I will, like the meteor that killed the dinosaurs, come
literally out of nowhere and eliminate the hell out of all
competition utilizing a "Tap-In Birdie Every Time" approach
that I have yet to develop or even figure out how in the
hell I can do such a thing, but which ought to bring in, oh,
say $39.95 a pop as a DVD ("It's a 50 dollar value!").
I also intend to make a lot more
money winning golf tournament after golf tournament, make
even MORE money from milking lotsa, lotsa moolah from the
lusciously lucrative product endorsements, become a media
darling where I habitually hobnob with cute Hollywood
starlets and famous celebrities, and drive a really nice
Being naturally suspicious and
paranoid, of course, I assume that you are ingratiating
yourself so that I will introduce you to my future Hollywood
friends or let you borrow my aforementioned nice car.
No promises, you understand, but
it's a deal! Thanks!
And as to the question "Will I
write again before the Mother Ship arrives and takes me back
to my home planet where I can escape the bankrupting
stupidities of a deficit-spending leftist government
financed by the loathsome Federal Reserve's suicidal
creation of excess money and credit made possible only by
their laughable neo-Keynesian econometric imbecilities?" I
hope not! Hahahaha!
So, good luck to us both,
Prediction: Once the Mogambo figures out there are
course marshals, he's throw down his sticks and get back to
writing...such is his fear of rule enforcement.
he really does get famous and the Retired Financial Stars Tour
stops at Pine Dunes, my
home course ( played exactly once so far), I'll bounce for
a round. But only Monday-Thursday - the same offer I
extended to president Obama.
Here's a great idea: What about a three-some?
Mr. Ure's Flu-Like Symptoms
there I was last night - pondering whether to eat dinner, since
I had just spent a good hunk of Thursday afternoon playing
"shopping with Lola" except of course it was Elaine, not Lola,
but that was the only difference I could find. Run from
this store to that, wait around for inspiration on which thing
to buy - then failing that, another dash to another store, only
to arrive home past dark to wrestle a hundred pounds of second
vanity and sink off the pickup and onto the deck which was the
closest spot to the project.
Somewhere along the way I had started to develop what are for me
classic signs that something wasn't quite right. A slight
ringing in the left ear, touch of a sore throat - not distinct,
more like an awareness of it, and a few passing flashes
of 'Gee, is the heat turned up?"
there is far too much going on getting construction finished
before T-day at the ranch to take time out to be sick (I'm
convinced busy people get sick less often, anyway) I applied my
normal 'just-in-case' which although not guarantees are
offered,; seems to work:
started with a zinc tablet since zinc lozenges are supposed
to be good for colds.
Then I had a glass of Italian vitamins (Paisano) since grape
juice is a fine source of
reversartrol, anti-oxidants, and vitamin C.
Since it's not good to drink on an empty stomach, a couple
of lour tortillas with a huge helping of melted Mozzarella
cheese that I told myself was a quesadilla but not quite.
Since the cheese is a little salty, more Italian vitamins.
And as long as things are going into the mouth, a Co-Q-10.
here it was confirmed that I really had the start of
something because usually 8-10 ounces of wine and a
quesadilla and I feel something of effects. But, when
coming down with something - or just outright sick - the effects
of salutatory alcohol disappear. Not good - but not a
waste of the Italian vitamins, since I use them as an important
note to mention this diagnostic sequence since it's a little
different than the
approach (subjective, objectives, assessment, and plan of
treatment) that goes into life support.
sure, Western medical figures a BP cuff, thermometer,
oximeter and a 3-lead ECG backed up with O2 and an AED is
how medicine is done, but it's a lot of work when for something
basic, two glasses or wine and getting in touch with yourself
can get there. And no question, orange tongue depressants
to look at the 'something' in the throat is much less satisfying
than a quesadilla.
rate, my self-SOAP done, I augmented my plan with the
2-5 grams of vitamin C since vitamin C is one of the wonder
drugs of the world.
Along with that 2 Benadryl's since best I can recall, it's
an H1 blocker and if I was getting anything serious (like
swine) it'd be harder to storm with H1 blocked.
up on the list was 8+ hours of sleep and a system recheck.
Which I did at 5 AM today and honestly, except for a touch of
'feel slow after Benadryl' effect, the throat is normal, the
only flash of heat-feeling was from drinking 600 ml
(2+cups) of scalding hot coffee and no runs, drips, or aches.
news and bad: On the one hand, further symptoms would have
indicated more sleep, but on the other, no rest for the wicked.
Since I feel great, I must be wicked, which means I must get
more stuff done today.
shame: My next level of treatment is a super-hot shrimp
curry over rice with the objective of
suppressing TNFa (curcumin), accompanied by a bit more wine
(reversartrol) but just a bit, and depending of
symptomology, move to an
H2 blocker like Zantac but being very aware & careful to
Zantac is different from Zyrtec. Again, with H1 &
H2 blocked, I figure cytokine storm risk would go down - but
this is only my thinking and IS NOT MEDICAL ADVICE.
would be followed by either very hot buttered rum or hot
Southern Comfort and water, or the old sailing warmer-upper
Hot Yukon Jack and water, while snuggled under plenty of
blankets since higher temps is one way to kill some bugs and it
seems worth a chance.
couple of readers have been asking about my approach to flu-like
symptoms, so there it is. No mercury-based
preservatives, no egg or canine by-products. Toss in a
good book for periods between sleep (I've got a half dozen on
the night stand already) and bring it on. I could use the
thinking over LED, fluorescent lights and such - pondering this:
"Your speaking of light bulbs!!! Do you remember the LIFE
TIME Bulbs. I had one in the bathroom that lasted 20 years,
and one in the garage that is doing better than that.
Imagine the savings there. So what happened to them? They
seemed pretty green(cash) to me!!!! Maybe we need a company
to bring them back or the Gov't!!!
just had a couple of screw-in fluorescent lights go out after
only a year or two of use, I got myself to thinking that one of
these mornings I should fire up a spreadsheet and see where the
breakeven points are for energy lighting on a KWHr annual basis.
to me that a 50-watt light bulb will burn for (pencil?) 20-hours
for 11-cents worth of power. So if the price different is $8,
then if the fancy light doesn't last at least x hours, then....
this point, I drift off into thinking about two trains, one
leaving Chicago and the other leaving New York....OMG I'm have a
quadratic equation relapse! Quick, where's my reversartrol
Send your comments to
The UrbanSurvival Mall:
Peoplenomics This Week
Life Through Business Model Glasses
Business Model Glasses" Ever wonder what would cause a person (like me)
to ask "What's the Woo-Woo business model worth?" Here's the
cause...Ever since I got serious about trying to understand business
back when I was a newscaster, I'd come to a working conclusion that
almost all human activity may be viewed at some level as competition
between business models. Whether you talk about religion,
government, family, or more conventionally-structured businesses like
the traditional plumber six blocks over, everyone it seems is running a
business model - although most will deny it's their sole motivation.
Using this approach, we can not only develop clearer focus in our
personal lives, but also gain understanding through questions we never
thought to ask before. Like: "What's a UFO worth?" and "How big is
the woo-woo business?"
More For Subscribers
Been a while since I've updated you on how many cookies and web
bugs have been removed from my main computer by the Maxa Cookie
Manager from Maxa Tools: 1,602 web bugs and 54,131 cookies
so far. It's amazing.
Take it for a free test drive by downloading it. To upgrade to full
functionality will set you back $35 bucks, but Christmas is
coming... Is your privacy worth it?
Once you try it out, click the
upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35
unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive
'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer
may run faster.
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM
does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is
compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows
world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers
"Live on $10,000" A
With another round of
layoffs due to start later this month...a round which will start
to axe many of the middle managers who have managed to avoid the
HR grenades...might I suggest a preemptive tactical move?
Voluntarily dropping your lifestyle back a bit, since we're all
being marched down that road by either circumstances or some
out-of-control-PTB types who write checks to Washington lobby
and to anti-reformers in California! A good starting
point, at least if you've still got $10-bucks is
my e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic
download. It's written in an information dense style: The
whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of
how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up
the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left...
Click here for the index and details.
My commodity broker JB Slear and I
have written a simple book to get you started on high density
hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little
creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try
out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of
produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony
(if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's
just $10 bucks here...
Pass It On
business model of this website is base Simply
and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro
list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking
upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you
believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course....
week's report is here. For
back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to
Thursday November 19, 2009
Testing the "Ure Ratio"
the past couple of days, several people have written in saying
the Ure Ratio may not be working. If you've been paying
attention, the ration says that the move in the price of gold
times 10 is about where the Dow should go.
ought to see a fine test of the ratio at the open this morning
since the price of gold is down about $5 bucks as I write this,
but check the gold price at the top of the page just before the
open to see how it works out. The ratio is not a hard &
fast thing; just an indicator of how I shade my expectations for
the day. It's not flawless, but it's a start.
of a comeback in the outlook after the unemployment number for
the week came in unchanged:
the week ending Nov. 14, the advance figure for seasonally
adjusted initial claims was 505,000, unchanged from the
previous week's revised figure of 505,000. The 4-week moving
average was 514,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous
week's revised average of 520,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted
insured unemployment rate was 4.3 percent for the week
ending Nov. 7, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised
rate of 4.3 percent.
The advance number for
seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week
ending Nov. 7 was 5,611,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the
preceding week's revised level of 5,650,000. The 4-week
moving average was 5,711,500, a decrease of 83,500 from the
preceding week's revised average of 5,795,000. "
reason the Dow may falter a bit today is
president Obama is suggesting that the nation faces a growing
chance of a double-dip recession if government doesn't rein in
mounting public debt. My guess is someone sent him the
Meredith Whitney interview on CNBC and he's shading
problem with government debt is that there's really no way to
rein it in since a good chunk of it is likely our own
government, intervening through proxies, to buy our own paper -
thus sustaining the illusion that there's demand for
visit to the TreasuryDirect website reveals the present
Public Debt to the Penny is running a little more than
$12-trillion dollars. While once-upon-a-time the US
Gross Domestic Product was running $13-trillion, that was before
the National Foreclosure and Layoff Festival kicked into high
gear from 2007 onward - featuring for your dining and dancing
pleasure the jobless recovery we're in now. Nowadays, I
expect real GDP is down around $11.5 trillion, but that's just a
dart because I'm too lazy to really pencil it out.
point is that GDP = Public Debt is not a good thing. It
would be like you (and your spouse if you have one) having to
work an entire year to pay off all your debts; made especially
comical because of all the federal level talk about 'balanced
budgets' which sorry to report ain't never been real in the
only reason the Capitol reprobates can get away with such
nonsense is the off budget accounting tricks, something the
Heritage Foundation has been harping on since 1985... but of
course, they don't need to raise campaign dough, so there you
don't mean swell like 'good'...I mean swell as in
twisted knee...or in this case a twisted healthcare bill that's
up to 2,074 pages. But as
a Politico report notes, 14 pages of that is index...
know, it occurred to me that someone could try to read
everything put together in Washington - and they would never
catch up, even with a speed reading course...
Simple Answers Department
requires TVs to be more energy efficient" got me to putting
on my inventor's cap this morning.
it came to me - in a flash - we just unplug them and presto!
100% energy efficient!
yeah, won't work in California because people would have to
learn to read (dangerous step toward critical think, that).
Drips of News
mornings I think I should be writing for SNL or a good standup
comic. There are so many stories that scream "this could
be funny!" Take, for example Time's story that "Obama
Would Fire Afpak Leaker."
comic stands up to announce: "President won't take a
leak..." (rim shot)
Please: This is serious stuff (or nearly so) what with
president Karzai pledging strides in security and corruption
fighting. It's oh such a ...you know...set-up to
surging kinda thing. Sit on your wallet.
what is coverage like in the MSM when Washington and Oregon have
100+ MPH winds and hurricane force winds and the largest waves
ever recorded on the coast? Nada...zilch. Did
anyone notice more wind and rain is coming? Not
outside federal region X. Hurricane force winds again
Oregon coast is in store.
people on the
East Coast are still gah-gah over Tropical Storm Ida...which
brings me to considering how the Northwest could change its
profile a bit: Start naming Pacific storms.
even come up with a snazzy new name for them: I kinda like
the word "Hurphoon" although I could live with "Tycane".
And then name them after political leaders so the idea of wind
comes across really clearly...
Dueling Santa's Department
article in the NY Post about how Wal-Mart and Amazon are playing
Reminds me: My legal counsel suggested that I retract my
suggestion about leaking a couple of Vicodin and a glass of
water in lieu or cookies and milk this year.
"Branding issues plus offering medical advice on a scheduled
drug is a no-no."
countered, how about a couple of aspirin? "Nope, may cause
stomach problems if not taken with food."
to cookies? "Yeah, probably the best idea but be sure and
leave the box out in plain sight in case Santa has any allergy
sensitivities and see if you can get cookies that aren't made in
a facility that processes peanuts and tree nuts, just to be on
the safe side."
put a bottle of Benadryl out, but unopened. What if the
fat guy is diabetic? "If you've left the cookie box out,
we should be safe - if Elaine bakes them, have her leave the
recipe out and circled but not too big a concern since there's
protein in the milk. Might leave a piece of cheese, just
to be safe there...and no more than three cookies, or we open up
to exposure for OCD food suits..."
is how my days go lately.
snip and save section ---
When are Couples "Married"?
friend Howard Hill (web
site) who writes most excellent from the insider perspective
on markets - having been there - sent me a note today wondering
in all marriages in Texas are illegal. Took me a
couple of seconds of reading the McClatchy papers web site "Texas'
gay marriage ban may have banned all marriages" to figure
out what he was talking about, but the long & short seems to be
that in their zeal to make one kind of marriage illegal, the
other may have been screwed up.
it raises an important question about when people are
married. Seems there are tons of definitions out there -
depending on whether you're looking at it from a governmental
standpoint, a tax standpoint, common law, civil law, Church law,
credit laws, and all that before you get into the basics of
& Ted's Excellent Adventure" points out) being excellent
to one another.
hadn't worried too much the matter of legality until reading
this thing in the news today. Now I'm wondering if Elaine
and I are 'legally' married here in Texas. The problem is
that we were married in Victoria, British Columbia, in a park on
the inner harbor with the
Empress Hotel in the background. We had other ideas, but
knot-tiers tend to hang out near big cities, so logistics of
getting one to go climb a mountain and do the vows on a
mountaintop at sunrise (which I'd thought about) wasn't as
see the problem? We're for-sure married when we go to
Canada - except in Quebec, who knows what they're doing.
Since it's all properly registered, I never thought any further
this gives me a wonderful idea for a new intrusive government
operation that will create lots of government employment,
justify more record-keeping, and impose more social control in
the holy name of "Security": Maybe what's coming is
- think of it. Thousands of 'marriage auditors' could be
hired and that would mean a huge database - so one (or more) of
those would have to be built. Cars to get these people
around to various interviews, layer upon layer of management -
yes, I see perhaps 100,000 jobs directly7 and indirectly coming
from this - why it's a grand economic stimulus.
that the problem of who should be the 'marriage police' wouldn't
be controversial; IRS has the most skin in the game from a money
standpoint, but Census has already been in nose-counting and
going to people's homes. You saw the Census news release
"The U.S. Census Bureau today opened its last of three data
capture centers that will process 2010 Census questionnaires
as they are mailed back by households across the nation next
spring. The 212,000 square-foot facility in Phoenix will
bring more than 2,800 jobs to the area.
“Processing the 2010 Census
questionnaires accurately and safely at the data capture
centers is a crucial step to a successful census,” said
Census Bureau Associate Director for Decennial Programs
Arnold Jackson. “The responses from each form processed at
the facility will help provide a complete count of the
nation's population and a new portrait of America.”
reminds me - and don't tell anyone else this - but since we've
got about 30-acres here, I thought we might jack up our house
and move it a thousand feet from its present location after the
Census is done - no clue why they would need my home's GPS
location, unless its so a SWAT team should ever need to be
dispatched, or so aliens looking to harvest fat old white guys
as hors d' orderves will know where to go to harvest them...but
that's another worry.
suppose I'm tilting at windmills on this marriage police
concept. But since someone sent me a copy of US Patent #
identification card system and biometric identity verification")
which is "A method and system for preventing or obstructing a
person from negotiating a transaction with another person,
group, or entity in a population, include verifying and
crosschecking the identity of the person and the stratus of the
national identification card carried by the person, as a
prerequisite to negotiating or entering into a transaction such
as...." and it goes on from there, perhaps I'm not just tilting,
concern is underscored when you watch the
Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions -
which seems focused this week on how to co-opt the small family
farms in America to hand over the reigns of food production to
course, the senate can be expected to take up
issues like 'food safety' because elections are costly things
and contributions from agribusiness are more than from the home
average working folks. But I'm seeing the outline of some
more here: The reinforcing of the foundations of the
Command Economy - where you & I get commanded by those who we're
told are working for us.
There's a great - slow motion- shift underway: A patent
issued on technology to restrict people's right to free
exchange, subtle jabs at the family farms, and on top of the
National Animal Identification Act.... it all sounds
worrisome to me:
got a terrible memory but I don't remember the Framers of the
great Constitution putting in a provision that freedom has to be
so closely regulated - seems the concepts are diametrically
opposed. Then again, Elaine & I thought we were married
but now....who knows?
Making Light of Things
contributed report showed up this morning on home lighting
progress made by a reader:
"I changed most of the bulbs to
florescent several years ago and noticed a 1/3 drop in
Florescent comparisons. 20w uses
3w 60w uses 13w 200w uses 40w
I went from 200w incandescent in
the basement to 200w florescent which use 40w. I had to get
rid of the dimmer switches. After working 2 jobs for 3 years
I now have the job called "Light Switch Controller." Telling
everyone to turn off the lights or turning them off myself
has resulted in 12% less electric usage and we even changed
to an electric oven (gas stove with electric oven) and
bought a electric dehydrator.
Then recently I changed out
bulbs in multiple bulb fixtures. For example the ceiling fan
with the 3, 4 or 5 bulb fixture that had all 60w florescent
I changed one to a 20w and unscrewed the others only until
they turned off so only the 20w is on. This works well for
most applications and if we need more light just turn in as
many of the other bulbs you need. I found that instead of
five, 13w fluorescents (65w) we got by on one 3w most of the
time, especially when you have lights on just to walk
through the house. And if we needed more light we tightened
one or two additional instead of all. With incandescent and
dimmer switches I could adjust the light level as needed.
With fluorescents the dimmable type are expensive, there are
3 way, I have one. I found the florescent light annoying at
times and found myself trying to block the glare. I went
through each room and hallway and looked closer at the light
levels and room light needs. Initially I replaced a 60w
incandescent with a 60w florescent without any though to
real lighting needs. By looking closer at the lighting and
replacing bulbs with smaller or combination bulbs I reduced
electric consumption. This is recent so I do not have data
but I can give examples. This is an example based on the
changes not my real savings since the lights are not on
always and sometimes more bulbs are on than at other times.
Maximum wattage reduction 310w.
I bought a new bicycle this
year. Courtney needed a new larger bike and we could not
find her size, one we liked or what we were willing to pay.
Well as a result we finally found Courtney a new bike and
everyone else also. I haven't ridden my bike often for
years. It is a very nice bike but it is the racing style and
was not comfortable anymore. Maybe if I rode more often I
would adjust but I decided to get a more upright bike. (If
you think you are still in shape try keeping up with the
kids on their bikes.)
Anyway when I bought my bike I
saw 1w LED for night riding, they were blinding. (Planet
Bike Superflash) I was looking on eBay for the bike lights
cheaper and came across 110 volt LED's and purchased a few
to try. I was impressed when I got them and have since
ordered a variety more to try to better determine which size
works best. They come from China and are a bit more
expensive than florescent. A 50w LED uses 5w compared to the
60w florescent using 13w. There are also 1w to 2w LED's at
21, 24, 48, 60, 72 LED. You know what I did next! I replaced
the 3w florescent with the 1w LED and the 13w with the 5w.
They produce a bright very white light but still have a far
amount of glare unlike the dimmed incandescent. I put one 90
LED bulb on a dimmer and it works as a high low switch, only
two choices. When you turn on the switch the LED lights
dimmer than when the switch is all the way up but there is
no variation in between. For example the light we leave lit
in the bedroom once it gets dark until I go to sleep has
been on since 5pm and it is now 2am. The florescent was
using 3w and the led now uses 1w that's 18w so far today. I
have not received all the bulbs I ordered yet and I just
received some today so the change to LED is new. The change
to LED is a couple of months after the florescent change
mentioned above so I will not be able to determine the
difference between them. I do like them they provide
adequate lighting. Last months electric bill $108, of course
rates are also a factor. It will be better to determine
after one year.
Let's see if I can't get those
soda can furnaces built.
I paid for a lighting up grade
at the laundry; only it was done the same day as the new
dryers were installed. I was expecting $150 to $180 month
saving in electric which would have paid for the upgrade but
so far $0 savings. The electric bill is exactly the same.
Maybe the dryers use more electric than the old ones. They
have 2 motors, the old ones only had 1. If that is the case
than I am saving but I do not see it.
That's it for now.
Light controller signing out"
encouraging report. I've been using a 48-led desk lamp for
about 6-months now although the payback for the higher price
means it won't be profitable until long after I'm dead...
last venture into decreasing energy use was simply turning off
lights resulted in an increase in medical bills from running
into things and falling down and getting stitches was more than
the energy savings. I'm hoping there's something in the
mega-long health care bill to cover "injuries due to energy
saving devices" but somehow I doubt it.
Flu shot Update
to the doctor's office yesterday (normal visit) and the doc
asked me if I wanted a swine flu shot. "No, thanks."
How about a pneumonia vaccine shot? "Pass". How
about....and the list went on. He finally shrugged and
said something like you're one of those if it ain't broke, don't
fix it guys....presactly.
to see something interesting, go watch video "M.D.
Retracts H1N1 Vaccine Advice after Reading Insert."
No, this is not medical advice....viewing suggestion.
And Most Important of All:
36 days until Christmas or 1128 days until 12/21/2012.
Depending on your outlook.
Wednesday November 18, 2009
were waiting for a world-ender deflation to strike, forget it:
CPI is still going up so that's one sign that deflation is being
held at bay:
a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for
All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in October,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The
index has decreased 0.2 percent over the last 12 months on a
not seasonally adjusted basis.
The seasonally adjusted all
items increase largely reflected advances in the indexes for
energy and for new and used motor vehicles. The energy index
rose for the fifth time in the last six months, advancing
1.5 percent as the indexes for gasoline, fuel oil, natural
gas, and electricity all increased. The index for all items
less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October, the same
increase as in September. The indexes for used cars and
trucks and for new vehicles both rose sharply and together
they accounted for over 90 percent of the increase in the
index for all items less food and energy. The indexes for
airline fares and medical care also increased, while the
shelter index was unchanged and the indexes for apparel and
The food index also increased in
October, rising 0.1 percent after declining in two of the
previous three months. The index for food away from home
increased slightly, while the food at home index was
unchanged. Within the food at home group, the index for
dairy and related products rose significantly, while the
fruits and vegetables index declined for the fourth straight
spent a little time in the BLS data archives this morning (hence
a somewhat shorter report) and threw together some numbers that
are pretty interesting.
revealing part of the following table is that the ONLY reason
that the year-on-year CPI numbers look anything like restrained
price inflation is that the CPI dropped by almost 3% over the
November-December period last year. If you turn around and
look at the cumulative inflation since the last December when
those declines were replaced with small advances, then one can
build a case for a big jump in the numbers over the next few
months as those minus signs get backed out. (Yellow
highlight is a dart throw at the increases I'd expect, gas
prices going up, yada, yada, yada...)
CPI Data Archrived from BLS
projections are conservative as the Dickens. Of
course, who heaven only knows what will happen with
"corrections" -- as usual, the devil is in the details.
It's well know fact in this part of Texas that the devil's a
statistician when he's not stoking fires elsewhere, sending out
junkmail & spam, or doing his work inside the Beltway.
Pay Attention to Whitney
the market has been on a fine tear since the March lows is
beyond a doubt. That I moved to the short outlook
prematurely is also correct. But, what's the old saying?
"Even a broken watch is right two times a day..." As we're
now seeing the averages in Robin Landry's target range, we
should be ready to plunge back down and test the March lows but
the specific trigger is not yet in sight.
Setting off a bonfire of the equities is something I've always
thought of sort of like fire starting. When the market has
just done a major correction and is bouncing, another major down
move takes a fair bit of doing. Like trying to start a
fire on a rainy day in the woods when there is no tinder about.
But at the market reaches certain points, the fire task becomes
easier. Some days it's like lighting a normal campfire.
But then there are days - like now - when it seems the least
little spark could set off a major collapse of prices.
this is shared since one of the few people I track closely
outside my own circle of friends is
Meredith Whitney who
was on CNBC Monday saying she hasn't been this bearish in a
Another realist the herd seems not to hear is
Nouriel Roubini who's also been saying lately that Americans
should be ready for more downside to come.
I've said before, about the only reason I can come up with for
the market moving up is that the market may be changing pricing
regimen from some (wonky) relationship with earnings to 'fixed
assets as inflation hedges' which may have been Warren Buffett's
BN acquisition motivation and which is about the only thing that
makes sense to me on pricing: The replacement cost of
plant, equipment and market share has to be rung up somehow in
dollar dropped this morning to the area around .666 Euro -
dangerous stuff that - and I'll leave you to ponder whether I
mean the .666 part or the Euro...up to you.
Percentage wise, silver has been lagging since it was once above
$20 an ounce when gold was around $10,40 a good while back.
Still under $19 when I looked this morning, so short term silver
will either want to play 'catch up' with gold, or gold will come
down, or the gold/silver ration will become even more extreme.
Choose one - or several.
Led by Geniuses
Too much debt could fuel double-dip recession." Gee,
Obviously, California is still looking for the mythical free
lunch as the once Golden State has becoming something else...with
a $21-billion+ budget shortfall.
Taxing Marijuana Questions
Interesting decision out of Colorado that
marijuana dispensaries subject to sales tax, retail license
laws." Even leaving aside that the AG's office would
potentially benefit from the additional revenue into the state's
coffers as a conflict, there's a more pertinent question here:
How are people popping Big Pharma backed pills treated: Do
they pay sales taxes on meds in Colorado?
answer is the AG is trying to treat medical marijuana
differently that other
prescriptions which are tax exempt in Colorado.
Wonder if the pharmaceutical outfits made campaign
Speaking of Drugs
anti-depressant drug could be 'women's Viagra' " says a
report out Tuesday. No, it's not ecstasy - that names
already been taken...
snip and save section ---
With Cell Phone Madness
Despite my protests, seems the cell phone industry will continue
to grow, since most people are not conscious enough to define
what is pertinent information to real-world life and what's not.
latest round of 'social media' simply capitalized on the
willingness of people to shun the unpleasant and pursue the
frivolous, which is fine, since it makes being focused a lot
more rewarding than if everyone was not
India today, the word is that
they will soon have 1-billion mobile phones.
That's three times as many phone users as there is
population in these United States - an amazing feat of
marketing. Why, it's now possible to go into a store and
hear personal details of almost anyone's life if you just follow
them around the aisles a bit. Crazy, huh?
want a good project that has the potential to turn you into a
millionaire, try to figure out the next appliance that will be
put into cell phones. I trust you see the progression, right?
You start with a simple phone. Then you add a tiny
keyboard for testing - and then a camera which even sour George
admits do take pretty good pictures - and emails them from
what's the next big thing to be added? What runs on
electricity, is small and can be effectively battery-powered?
No, I won't go into sex toys since this is a PG-rated site, but it did occur to me that
Norelco could come out with a shaver-phone. Toss in a
camera and you could email your twits a picture of yourself
before and after.
that's already on the market as the Cool758 Razor-Smartphone.
Hmmm....small, electric-powered, eh? How about an electric
can opener phone? Maybe a coffee-grinder phone? Or,
how about a phone that doubles as an electric screwdriver?
Now we're getting somewhere.
the phones already have a vibrating function, seems like the R&D
boyz at Black & Decker shouldn't have any trouble making a
Sander-Phone. MagLite has to have a high-powered LED
flashlight phone in the works since that'd be a sure-fire hit
with our friends in law enforcement. I only recently found
out you can buy a glass-breaking end cap for a MagLite.
MagLite D Cell Flashlight glass breaking Tail Cap X Cape Cap
) Shows how far behind the curve I am, huh?
actually came up with what I thought would be a 'killer ap' -
putting the remote control for the TV into a cell phone, but
there are already downloadable aps for that. Besides,
there's work being done now
using image recognition software that would let you control your
TV with a wave of your hand.
kind of visual recognition software has some interesting
potential: Make a big shrug and the TV could flip to a
news channel. Or, make the football time-out sign and TiVo
pauses. Or the sign of the cross brings up the 700 Club
and so forth. How about this: Pretend to swing an imaginary baseball bat and up
would pop ESPN. Maybe a "Aw, get outta here" wave would
turn off O'Reilly, Hannity, or whoever's disagreeing with me at
the moment....Why this opens up whole next potentials
for exercise in the media room, doesn't it? Like
channeling Merlin, or something.
this can't be far off - I'm already on speaking terms with
wife's car - and it answers simple requests. More often
than...well...that's another story.
there has to be a limit to how closely marketing genius can mold
the man-machine interface but I keep getting stuck on power
density of the battery pack as a stumbling block for some of my
more aggressive concepts. Like perking coffee on a cell
phone or toasting a bagel...that kind of thing.
Powering up the cell phone to pop popcorn seems within reason,
if you don't mind cooking yourself a bit faster.
the real danger with cell phones is that voice recognition
systems are not yet ready for the noisy primetime mobile
environment. Until that kind of functionality is
perfected, the biggest threat on the roads when you're out
driving about may not longer be drunk drivers. May be
More than a third of 16-17 year olds admit to texting while
driving. If the cell phone toasted bagels instead of
texting, imagine how much safer we'd all be.
Archeological Question of the
got Google Earth? Tell me what 33º12'22.82N
by 103º35'04.67W is from 4000 feet or so...and why is it so
close to the Roswell crash site? Answer: government
bombing range from WW II- but quite cool...
Had to run into town to pick up
some material for our bathroom remodeling project and happened
to chat with a local at the lumber yard. The usual
pleasantries caught be a bit off guard. My "How you
doing?" got an usual reply: "If I was any better I'd be
fartin' rainbows..." explained the feller.
I've heard a lot of answers to my
"How are you today?" Most folks mutter 'fine' and that's
that. But occasionally you get a decent answer like "Any
day on this side of the lawn is a great one" or the similar
"Better'n pushin up daisies..." My personal response
usually goes something like "If I was doing any better, why
there'd be two of me..."
But 'rainbows'? New one on me
- thought you might find a use for it sometime.
Tuesday November 17, 2009
Port for Breakfast
about the middle of each month we begin one of our breakfast of
champions with a short discussion of how things are going down
on the docks. I hit the press release circuit which the
MainStreamMedia reports and insist (patiently) that there
other-than-government sources which will tell you how the wind's
blowing through the economy.
for example, the
October figures from the Port of Long Beach: Inbound
container traffic is down 22.4% compared with year ago levels
when you look at TEU's (twenty foot [container] equivalents.
The good news - such as it is - has to be the export (outbound
loaded) for October was down only 10.1%. And the shuffling
of empties has slowed, too: Down 37.6%.
the viaduct, the competition at the Port of Los Angeles is
celebrating with headlines like "Port
of Los Angeles reports strongest monthly cargo volumes for 2009
calendar year to date."
"Containers shipped through the Port of Los Angeles last
month increased 10.9 percent compared to September, making
October the strongest month yet for the Port this calendar
year. Both containerized imports and exports reached their
highest levels for 2009, with loaded outbound containers
seeing an 11.8 percent rise over October 2008 volumes.
Still, loaded inbound containers were 8.3 percent below
October 2008 levels.
Despite a reporting period that
included a weeklong observance of a Chinese holiday, the
total number of Twenty-Foot Equivalent (20-foot containers
or “TEUs”) imported and exported through the Port of Los
Angeles in October was 647,423.70. Total container volumes
were 10.9 percent above September 2009 levels; loaded
imports were up 9.6 percent and loaded exports were up 7.4
percent over the previous month.
Year to date in 2009, total TEU
volume is at 5,606,798.65, 15.4 percent lower than the same
10-month period in 2008. Tracking by the Port’s fiscal year
beginning July 2009, container volumes are 15.2 percent
lower than 2008.
you pop the champagne, loaded inbound containers were down 8.7%
compared with 2008 and what they don't mention is that
October 2008 was down about 4% from 2007...and
October 2007 in turn was down more than 8% from October of
2006...and 2006 seems like it was the last 'good' year on
the LA docks, although the Port of LA press release doesn't
mention that. Calendar year 2007 was down only a tad from
2006, but from there, things headed down hill. But don't
let me rain on the statistical blip just because it's getting to
the time of year when I wear a Grinch suit and scare the cats.
Heading north up the ILWU's west side, we find
Oakland was down 6.7% in October and down 11.1% year-to-date.
They'd been down YTD 6.4% last year.
always gotten on well with longshoremen, BTW. Interviewed
Harry Bridges back during the early 70's West Coast shutdown.
Great guy and he had some fine insights into the changing
relationship of workers to the ownership class like this one:
should we take it upon ourselves to pick up the pieces after
industry discards people for machines? Isn't it about
time unions got in there before the fact to insist that
there must be some obligation to people in all this?"
Between guys like Bridges (not
to mention Eric Hoffer) and the gangs that used to have a
boilermaker after work now and then at the old Nifty's Diner
down on Harbor Island in Seattle the even trade between a day's
work and a day's wages seemed in good hands. Here
lately, when I read reports about mythical productivity I wonder
what legendary union leaders would have thought of imputing a
productivity jump from processor speeds.
no, I'm not saying kind things about labor just because I've met
some outstanding labor leaders. It's because the folks who
did (and still do) work in this country often have a clearer
vision of the relationship between work and money than the gangs
of lawyers that inhabit capitols. Which could have something to
do with why the corporate types want to outsource whatever real
work they can...lest their scamming be ratted out.
Continuing up the coast, Portland hasn't figured out how to turn
on the calculator yet this month. If they figure it out
today they'll maybe
October numbers here.
is reporting foreign container traffic down 19.3% for the month
with domestic down 9.3%
Port of Seattle was up actually up 6% for the month of October,
but remains down 11.9% year to date.
as a whole, no sign of a big recovery - some small shifts in
traffic patterns, but I expect not too much overtime on the
docks. Which is worrisome when you think about it:
I've warned you before about Grim Reaper Does Christmas this
year. I can see the headlines already: "Slaying of the
Instead of cookies and milk being left out for Santa this year,
a glass of water and a couple of
be more in order.
then moves us along to the day's next headache: The
Producer Price Numbers. May I have the clickvelope,
Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.3 percent
in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed a
0.6-percent decline in September and a 1.7-percent rise in
August. In October, at the earlier stages of processing,
prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved
up 0.3 percent and the crude goods index increased 5.4
percent. On an unadjusted basis, from October 2008 to
October 2009, prices for finished goods fell 1.9 percent,
the eleventh consecutive month of year- over-year declines.
The October increase in the
index for finished goods can be attributed to higher prices
for energy and food, both of which moved up 1.6 percent. By
contrast, prices for finished goods other than foods and
energy declined 0.6 percent.
Finished energy: The index for
finished energy goods advanced 1.6 percent in October
compared with a 2.4-percent drop in the previous month.
Almost half of the increase can be traced to the gasoline
index, which climbed 1.9 percent. Rising prices for
residential electric power and liquefied petroleum gas also
contributed to the advance in the finished energy goods
index. (See table 2.)
Finished foods: Finished
consumer food prices rose 1.6 percent in October after
edging down 0.1 percent a month earlier. Accounting for
about half of the increase, the index for fresh and dry
vegetables jumped 24.2 percent. Higher prices for fresh
fruits and melons also contributed to the advance in the
finished consumer foods index.
Finished core: In October, the
index for finished goods less foods and energy moved down
0.6 percent, its second consecutive decrease. Lower prices
for light motor trucks and passenger cars led the October
decline, falling 5.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
In accordance with usual practice, most new-model-year
passenger cars and light motor trucks were introduced into
the PPI in October. (See Report on Quality Changes for 2010
Model Vehicles, USDL 09-1400.)
The Producer Price Index for
Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components moved up
0.3 percent in October, its third straight monthly advance.
The October rise can be traced to higher prices for
intermediate energy goods, which climbed 2.3 percent. By
contrast, the indexes for both intermediate goods less foods
and energy and for intermediate foods and feeds decreased
0.2 percent. On a 12-month basis, prices for intermediate
goods fell 7.5 percent in October. This is the third
consecutive month of slowing year-over-year declines
following a record 15.1- percent drop for the 12 months
ended July 2009. (See table B.)
Intermediate energy: The index
for intermediate energy goods advanced 2.3 percent in
October after falling 2.1 percent in September. About
one-fifth of this increase can be traced to a 5.5-percent
rise in diesel fuel prices. Higher prices for natural gas to
electric utilities and commercial electric power also
contributed to the advance in the intermediate energy goods
index. (See table 2.)
The Producer Price Index for
Crude Materials for Further Processing increased 5.4 percent
in October after falling 2.1 percent in September. For the
3-month period ending in October, crude material prices rose
7.1 percent after advancing 4.1 percent in the 3 months
ending in July. The monthly October rise was broad based,
with prices for crude energy materials jumping 8.3 percent,
the index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs moving up 5.2
percent, and prices for crude nonfood materials less energy
increasing 0.5 percent. (See table B.)
Crude energy: The index for
crude energy materials increased 8.3 percent in October.
From July to October, this index rose 9.5 percent, compared
with an 11.8-percent rise in the 3 months ending in July.
Accounting for about sixty percent of the monthly October
increase, the natural gas index moved up 16.3 percent.
Higher prices for both crude petroleum and coal also
contributed to the advance in the crude energy materials
index. (See table 2.)
Crude foods: The index for crude
foodstuffs and feedstuffs increased 5.2 percent in October.
This index moved up 2.4 percent in the most recent 3-month
period compared with a 6.0-percent decline in the previous
3-month period. In October, a 9.0-percent rise in the grains
index led the advance in the crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs
index. Higher prices for slaughter poultry were also a
factor in this increase.
Crude core: The index for crude
nonfood materials less energy rose 0.5 percent in October,
and 10.4 percent for the 3 months ending in October.
Similarly, for the 3 months ending in July, prices climbed
10.8 percent. A major contributor to the monthly October
increase was the gold ores index, which rose 5.4 percent.
does it all mean? Remember (not to harp on this, but...)
global synchronized inflation seems to be game on now...so that
finished goods are only down 1.9% annualized YoY means what?
Printing money is again offsetting incipient deflation and we
may be able to paper our way through this mess yet. At
least until the commercial paper bundles start taking down big
institutions, but no point getting ahead of the play by looking
at the libretto. We just sit back and enjoy the show.
thought this was fun, be sure and drop by tomorrow as the
Prince of Mirth unveils the CPI numbers. Another
knee-slapper, for sure...only question is whether it'll be a LOL
Dow yesterday hit an intraday high of 10,434 - which means any
old time in here, things could turn down in an ugly way.
The good news is that if it's the high for this bounce off the
March 2009 lows, our crash dates (37 days, 55 days, 37
trading days and 55 trading days) are all out there
in January or early February, although I don't feel like playing
the short side of thing. This is NOT investment advice...
down about 8 means by the Ure Ratio the Dow oughta drop ten
times that or about 80 near the open plus or minus noise
With Friends Like This, 1
NFL owner has been fined for flipping off fans.
in general, and football & hockey in particular, have always
struck me as a huge waste of time & energy. It's thinly
veiled ritualized warfare where the goal is to slam people down
who get in the way (fine training for corporate life, I suppose)
or beat people with sticks, which may track hockey fans into law
enforcement careers. Next time you want to get even with a
crass sports owner the best payback I can think of is heading
for The History Channel or Discovery and put information - not
ritualized warfare into your head.
the last inning of the World Serious or the final 2-minutes
which turns to 20 (or more) of the Super Bored. But
seriously (or mostly so) next time you're watching sports ask
yourself "What's my motivation here and what am I getting
out of this?" We know you're being separated from your
individuality and cash; I mean beyond that stuff...
With Friends Like This, 2
governor of NY is not happy with the Obama administration
for trying the 9/11 suspects in the Big Apple.
way I've got this figured, "If you can't say something
nice...don't say anything at all." Unless, of course
you've got aspirations to higher office....
Saving the Auto Industry
Politico has been counting cars - in the presidential motorcade
off in China. 71-they figure it to be. Is that
excessive? Yes...and no. Yes if you're trying to cut
greenhouse gases; no if you're secretly still bailing out the
auto industry. See how yin and yang work?
Hungry for News
17,000 children per day die for lack of food shouldn't come as a
surprise. Nor should the international conference on
point in Rome.
the standpoint of aliens watching Ant Farm Earth I can almost
hear the dialog: "How long before they figure out this is
the Feed & Breed question on the evolution test, do you think?"
think I'll skip lunch.
Police State Notes
reader in the far, far northeast has a question:
"what do you think of border patrol setting up checkpoints
99 miles inside us border?
they're doing it in vt & nh on
interstates 91 and 89, at White River, Vt and Lebanon, NH
so they catch a few sad
any bad guys with half a brain
can scoot around the checkpoints on state roads and be on
their merry way..
whats the point? sheep
well, I got my wood split, back
as everyone knows, especially at this time of year, there's a
horrible problem with immigrant hockey players sneaking into the
US to work illegally. In fact, some reports have it that
as much as 10% of Canada's population has come across the border
at some point to support these migrants who send money home to
Seriously (or nearly so) It points out how seriously the Obama
administration is proactively preventing Main and New Hampshire
from being overrun with illegals from New Brunswick. Be
careful how you answer, eh
It's not a police state. It's a joke.
snip and save section ---
Lingo-Lango - Drifty Tongues
is the word of the year for the Oxford Dictionary folk.
Since I'm a language abuser at heart,
here's their press release:
Facebook fans will
undoubtedly recognize the New Oxford American
Dictionary's 2009 Word of the Year, unfriend.
verb - To remove someone as a 'friend' on a
social networking site such as Facebook
"It has both
currency and potential longevity," notes
Christine Lindberg, Senior Lexicographer for
Oxford's US dictionary program. "In the online
social networking context, its meaning is
understood, so its adoption as a modern verb
form makes this an interesting choice for Word
of the Year. Most 'un-' prefixed words are
adjectives (unacceptable, unpleasant), and there
are certainly some familiar 'un-' verbs (uncap,
unpack), but 'unfriend' is different from the
norm. It assumes a verb sense of 'friend' that
is really not used (at least not since maybe the
17th century!). Unfriend has real lex-appeal."
For a shortlist of
new words considered for the New Oxford American
Dictionary 2009 Word of the Year continue
About the New
Oxford American Dictionary Word of the Year:
Among their other
activities, lexicographers at Oxford University
Press track how the vocabulary of the English
language is changing from year to year. Every
year, the New Oxford American Dictionary Word of
the Year is debated and chosen, with the
selection made to reflect the ethos of the year
and its lasting potential as a word of cultural
significance and use.
Word of the Year
- a # [hash] sign added to a word or phrase
that enables Twitter users to search for
tweets (postings on the Twitter site) that
contain similarly tagged items and view
intexticated - distracted because
texting on a cellphone while driving a
- a small, very portable laptop computer
with limited memory
- a way of blocking access to a part of a
website which is only available to paying
- the sending of sexually explicit texts and
pictures by cellphone
- a business model in which some basic
services are provided for free, with the aim
of enticing users to pay for additional,
premium features or content
funemployed - taking advantage of
one's newly unemployed status to have fun or
pursue other interests
bank - a financial institution whose
liabilities are greater than its assets, but
which continues to operate because of
-(Ardipithecus ramidus) oldest known
hominid, discovered in Ethiopia during the
1990s and announced to the public in 2009
- a conspiracy theorist who challenges
President Obama's US birth certificate
- a person who chooses to be a single mother
panel - a theoretical body that
determines which patients deserve to live,
when care is rationed
- a person who protests President Obama's
tax policies and stimulus package, often
through local demonstrations known as "Tea
Party" protests (in allusion to the Boston
Tea Party of 1773
state - a US state that does not
have strict environmental regulations
state - a US state that has strict
- a town built and run on eco-friendly
Notable Word Clusters for 2009
Despite all this, most humans use fewer than 5,000 words in a
week +they r gting shrtr. Tnx2txting.
Storming Toward Winter's
Apparently, not too many people in the UK have been reading
UrbanSurvival. If they had been, somewhere along the way I
would have mentioned that from a reporter or editor standpoint
"news" manufacturing is a fine art.
weather stories (please): Every year has a "Hottest Day of
the Year" story. Every year has a Coldest Day of the Year"
headline to go with it.
Example of how this works out? Sure: "Britain
prepares for ANOTHER battering after biggest storm of the year
washes out the weekend" says the Daily Mail.
cyclical nature of news isn't something most folks devote mental
processor clicks to, but it's there. Inauguration stories
repeat every four years, Congressman reelected stories continue
either until they retire or are caught...so there's a rhythm to
that comes with time of year.
it's not winter yet but already the seasonal news stories
are starting to pop up. I hope the fine folks at Google's Trend
Lab won't mind my borrowing this graphic to make a point...but
in language and in consciousness there is a regular heartbeat to
this - something anyone with cardiac medicine would recognize as
a big strip on life in these United States:
interesting to look at is that looking at general search use of
Christmas seems to be in some kind of long-term trend.
When I tell you "Grim Reaper Does Christmas" this year is likely
in the cards, it's not from some woo-woo science...just continue
the trend and what do you find?
on the north deck as I strolled over to the office this
morning...Both the cats are coming into the office in the
early morning hours when I get up. Pusscilla sleeps on the
rug in front of the drum set. Zeus prefers a chair
(covered with a paper towel to keep cat dander & tag-alongs off
presence has kept me from some of my usual holiday is coming
stress relievers such as banging on the snare drum... recently
forgot Z was in the room and slammed some paradiddles and crash
rides (you do know what
rudiments are to novice drummers, right?). Never seen
a cat move so fast.
since, all I have to do is look at the drumsticks and Zeus gets
worried. So, for now, the drum bashing is on hold, which
seems to please both cats. Something about Silent Night.
November 16, 2009
Spiky Monday Led by Bozos
popped up to nearly $1,135
overnight. But then again, since I told you last week
that the G-20 was engaging in something tantamount to 'global
synchronized inflation' that would be the logical outcome,
this is really in play now, what could we anticipate? Home
prices falling slower or even rising (why,
lookie here...act surprised!) , the
G-20 bumbling and stumbling about, and
APEC making more 'pronouncements' about working together,
firming oil prices, and since the season to be jolly is
almost here, perhaps a premature partridge in a pear tree.
World is beset by a cast of bozos who don't seem to understand
Occam's Razor, very well. Occam's says in so many
better constructed words than I can parse together at this
ungodly hour, that given a multitude of possible answers that
are increasingly complicated, the right answer will
likely be among the most (if not the) most simple.
Take for example the idea of climate change.
APEC leaders agreed this weekend that the Copenhagen climate
treaty was probably out of reach. Fine, and so it is.
The question someone ought to be asking is "Why?"
Some of the reasons cited sounded absurd: We'll not to
this one because we want to get something more comprehensive
down the road. That's govspeak for "We can't drive the
automatic transmission version, but we're gonna buy the 6-speed
version later." Like I said: Led by bozos.
what did the
changeling say about this in 2008? "Delay
is no longer an options..." Right....Guess some things
have changed, huh? Like political winds, maybe?
What's really going on under all the environmental ink is that
too many people (globally) are waking to the real agenda
which is being pushed by the UN, G-20 and all the rest:
This is a topic the John Birchers
were warning about what? 40-years ago...and here we are
with arguably the most socialist government ever to haunt
Washington and the John Birch Society was right after
all. Far right sometimes, but right is right....
THE biggest stumbling block to a global coup by the
bankster and ruler class has been a lack of money to do their
dastardly deed with. But wait! There's movement on
your (left) flank as the "UK
joins G20 push for Bank Levy".
Main point of this story is the concept of a global bank tax in
order to fund future bailouts owned by The Chosen Few.
clear and present danger is that some super-organization that's
NOT DIRECTLY ELECTED begins to tax everyone in the world.
Don't know about you, but I don't remember voting on G20
membership, do you? But that's how the plan's gonna roll,
and the great (socializing) of world government needs a funding
source and control of the global currency picture.
not trying to sound alarmist at all this, but that's how it's
all rolling out: A global synchronized inflation to beggar
the working people's of the world.
a free man, I don't recall anything under the Constitution that
provided for the US to contribute to - let alone join - some
global government...but it's early yet. Was G20 membership
voted on anywhere? I can't recall...
trip over to Alexa.com reveals the
www.jbs.org web site is ranked 31,824 in the US, while the
sports a ranking of 58,479, so one would think that there
are still more right-thinking (yes, meant both ways) people left
(yes, another meant both ways, bad Monday puns are my thing
today...) in America.
the real battle lines are a lot different through issues
hijacking. The way this works is that the globalists throw
money silently into the coffers of this group, or that, and then
use the organization as an issues manipulator. There are
lots of so-called 'green' groups that have higher ratings that
either the JBS or the SW web sites and it's here that social
influencers can operate behind the scenes on issues like
climate, carbon, or whatever.
Related Data Point:
Al Gore speech in Florida draw 800 pro and 200 supporter this
What Gore et al are pushing for (among other items) is
carbon credit trading because without monetizing climate
control, it's not going to happen. However, given money,
or taking it, then anything is possible in the scramble to
control the planet. Which, in case you're asleep, is the
uber macro picture of what's going on here on Ant Farm Earth.
Remember, from a "power to control" standpoint, the objective is
to get a system of global taxation in place which is 'above
direct control of the people'. Accomplish that and you
smash down the barriers of nationhood and you can install World
Related Data point:
Interpol now has its own passport:
"SINGAPORE – INTERPOL today issued its first ever passports
which will enable Heads of National Central Bureaus (NCBs)
and staff to travel internationally without requiring a visa
when assisting in transnational investigations or urgent
deployments to incidents.
Two countries, Pakistan and
Ukraine, have already agreed to waive visa entry
requirements for INTERPOL passport bearers, recognizing that
those individuals will be travelling on behalf of the
organization in the furtherance of international police
Without the delay of visa
processing procedures, any INTERPOL team can be immediately
deployed to scenes of terrorist events, major crimes or
natural disasters and officials from NCBs can easily cross
borders to assist in fugitive extraditions. "
wait! Did I miss something? I don't remember voting
on allowing anything other than US law enforcement to operate
within the US...and maybe they don't, but the operant
three letter word of the day is YET.
What seems to be emergent from the fog of Monday morning's
headlines is the "Aha!": There are two meta-factions
now competing for control of the world. One could be
labeled the UN, but since there are so many Third Worlders there
which the globalist crowd which likes to exploit, they're now
moving up the G20 and outfits like APEC to the front of the line
and is grabbing as much media attention there are possible.
Look for the first global tax to emerge from one of these.
Remember that earlier story about the UK being stampeded into a
bank levy which is a global tax no matter how much
presstick is smeared on it by the MSM.
Here's the playbook: Have a global synchronized inflation
save (or at least hide) the so-far jobless economic
recovery and watch for the G20 to take all kinds of bows, thus
reinforcing the need for that global bank taxes to fund
such interventions in the future. Simple stuff, hell, not
clue why the MSM doesn't report it this way, but then I don't
have a board of directors, or touchy advertisers to pander
to...nor am I likely to get there at this rate....
What you're not supposed to notice now that the Dow is
beginning to approach where it was
back in the week of April 12, 1999, is that one dollar
in 1999 bought more than a dollar does in 2009.
you use the Minneapolis Fed calculator for inflation, a buck's
worth is up to $1.28, but that's before adding another 4 or 5
cents for this year's inflation since the year is almost a
goner. Maybe $1.32, shall we say?
But, if you go to the
government Statistics web site and plug in April 1999
through August of 2009, you find the government's own numbers
show a buck's worth then is now $1.52 worth - not to mention
what's happened to real prices since August.
you were expecting the skies to part and humans come to their
senses, it didn't happen this weekend...nor, if I'm guessing
right, will it happen this week. But one investment
decision endures - getting out of paper.
price of gold in April of 1999 was $284 when the Dow was this
high back then. I'd say gold's done OK, huh?
more, the only paper that I put my full faith in (since it
hasn't been diluted over time) is Charmin.
Hmmm...kinda early for numbers, but new retail data is out:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance
estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for
October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and
trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were
$347.5 billion, an
increase of 1.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but
1.7 percent (±0.5%) below October 2008. Total sales
for the August through October 2009 period were up 1.5
percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The August
to September 2009 percent change was revised from -1.5
percent (±0.5%) to -2.3 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 1.4 percent (±0.7%) from
September 2009, but 2.1 percent (±0.5%) below last year.
Gasoline stations sales were down 15.0 percent (±1.3%) from
October 2008 and building material and garden equipment and
supplies dealers were down 15.0 percent (±1.8%) from last
got the weasel wording here? Not adjusted for price
changes... So let's guess prices were up 5% for the year,
which would mean the unit volumes 6.7% year-on-year....which
explains why they don't adjust for price in this number, doesn't
GM meantime only lost $1.2 billion in Q3 - calls it
progress. Let me lose just a few million a year and
I'll show you what real progress is...
of which has the market headed for a higher opening - using the
Ure Ration (Dow moves about 10X gold price change) seems to mean
up around 80 early on. Your results may vary, void where
prohibited, yada yada yada.
Ukraine's Flu Mess
Media there is reporting
people dead so far and nearly 80,000 hospitalized.
Around here, Elaine noticed something when she happened to visit
a local Doc's office last week (lube, oil & filter time) -
prominent signs that "Persons with flu-like symptoms" (including
x, y, and z) should NOT come in.
let me see if I have this right: If you're sick, don't go
to the doc's office? Boggles the mind...doesn't it?
Guess it explains why we're a pill-popping nation of
self-medicators. So I've herd.
Out to Launch
STS-129 - Shuttle Atlantis is going up this afternoon,
unless you're in Hawaii or the West Coast, in which case right
before launchtime. Ahem....
the shuttle launches don't produce as much pollution as cars.
The good news is that if you're awake enough to form a question
that complicated, you can skip looking yourself up in the
obituary column today.
His Head in the Clouds
refer, of course, to Hugo "Chavez
asking Cubans to "bomb clouds" amid drought". Here all
this time I thought Chavez had his head somewhere else.
Ken Clark, Galveston County (Houston) Commissioner (District 4)
is hopping mad and if you hear a loud exchange of words on
Wednesday, here's what's going on:
Clark's absolutely livid because Galveston County has apparently
brought some IT people into the US from foreign countries
to work on the county computer systems. Clark told me last
night that some of these jobs are paying north of $75,000 a
all the people unemployed people in America, Clark is asking
what the hell is going on? Fine question,
that....fireworks due Wednesday.
snip and save section ---
saw the movie 2012 this weekend, you were not alone:
Elaine & I went Friday with one of our friends and it was a)
great computer graphics...damn fine and worth seeing for that
alone; b) thin on plot, but that may have been a function of
overwhelming CG, and 3)
a monster bringing in $225 at the box office globally.
seeing the movie, I came home to the ranch and wondered if maybe
I shouldn't call the Texas Railroad Commission this week - since
they're the people in charge of capped off oil and gas wells in
our neighborhood. Since our property is literally
across the street from a 600-acre drilling reserve, I figure
if I can lease out part of our land to a wildcatter, maybe I
could at least find one of the capped off wells to turn into a
neutrino detector, like the old mine shaft in India was used for
in the movie.
sure it would work. With my luck, I'd strike oil, instead,
although that wouldn't be such a bad thing; E & I have jokes
about doing a a real-life Beverly Hillbillies...
the movie was entertaining, although I'm not sure where all the
water comes from. What's more worrisome is the alternative to
2012 which I outlined in the Saturday column for
note: There's only one
itsy-bitsy-teeny sunspot today over at Space Weather
and it's really, really small. Who needs the earth's crust
going walkabout when we have bozos at the helm? We're
doomed by stupidity, anyway, it seems. No fair doing
double shots for breakfast, or popping a second pill...you
really oughta suffer through Monday's like the rest of us.
Car Pollution Tax Scams
report that "Dutch
drivers to pay tax on road time, not car" can be read any
number of ways. One is that it would be fair to tax people
for pollution purposes depending on how much they drive.
But does that really make sense?
reading it, a lot of this global warming stuff (which is
inconveniently happening to other planets in our solar system)
is nothing more than a way for governments to reorganize to
extract continuing tribute from taxpayers.
see, governments globally have a problem: They need more
money to do things like bail out their banks, build their
militaries and so forth. So what do they do? Invent
global warming and tah-dah! Excuse to play three-card
Monte with taxes.
some places - like the Netherlands case - the concept is to use
technology to install a mileage tax. In other places, like
Texas, the sweetheart deals are cut to lease freeways that were
paid for by taxpayers once, out to foreign outfits which reap
profits and pay a piece to government.
the nitty-gritty: In both cases, you've got roads - a huge
sunk cost fixed asset. How does government monetize
a fixed asset to fund its never-ending growth? Simple!
Lease it out (Texas and other states) or install a new ongoing
tax regime (Netherlands).
course, people would be grabbing their pitchforks is this was
put before the people directly, so a slow-motion scare tactic
can be used, social engineering at its best and what do you get?
Bippity Boppity Boo.
pollution is the problem, sticking a sniffer up a car's
exhaust pipe tells the truth in PPM. GPS mileage-based
taxes? Ding ding ding: Loser. Tax scam. Fixed
asset conversion to rent.
Optimist and Pessimists Test
know how to tell the difference between an optimist and a
optimist says it's 39 shopping days till Christmas.
pessimist says its 1131 days until 12/21/2012...
realist says we mostly end up broke either way....
UrbanSurvivalist says see you tomorrow morning...planning to
start my Christmas Want List.
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for
'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on
the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in
the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept
several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet
Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely,
it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers
and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as
you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our
charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it
shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with
the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close
replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you
were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929
deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the
truth be told.