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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Friday December
11, 2009 7:55
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Santa Does Wall Street Tired, poor, been kicked out of your home? You just didn't have the right job, Bunkie! You needed to have a federal job because I'm reading where the average is now up around $71,000 a year. I keep wondering how this concentration of taxes will eventually end for the private sector, but I think I already know the answer. --- But wait! Santa is due on Wall Street. With yesterday's 68 point gain, and the early futures buoyed by overseas gains, the only question is what about those retail figures due out this morning? The envelope please...
OK, lemme see: Inflation's up 4-5%, retail is up 1.9% compared with a year go not accounting for price changes so...hmmm...some recovery, huh? Gold collapsed from around $1,142 to the $1,153 area upon release. Happy talk headlines like "November retail sales rise more than expected" oughta rally the sheep.
Meanwhile, Santa's trip to Goldman Sachs exec homes will be a little unusual: He'll be delivering bonus stock which can't be cashed in for 5-years. Leave a "Come back for a cookie in five years" note and powder milk out for him, maybe?
Still, between now and Christmas, the market has a pretty good chance of setting a new high for the year. Normally, that'd be good news, except this year has been pretty crappy. Any close over 10,549 would be a new high for the year and I think there's maybe one of those on the sleigh.
Gotta wonder if Santa's got a couple of jugs of ink and a lot of pulping trees chopped down for the U.S. Treasury: "Democrats to lift debt ceiling by $1.8 trillion, fear 2010 backlash" says Politico.
What!!?? From people like me screaming "Throw 'em ALL out 'except Ron Paul!"? No reason for congressional hearing scores to improve now, especially in mid-bidding from the special interests that will bankroll the slick 2010 media campaigns...
Silver Screen, Golden Reviews The follow-on from the producer of Titanic - "Avatar" is getting really good reviews. Why, there's even talk of an Oscar nomination for the film which oughta make James Cameron delighted.
I always find such things interesting; a kind of social commentary mixed in with marketing, cross-promotions, and product licensing. A whole phenom to behold in seasonal wonder.
Hired Guns Been talking about plans for a Stability Policy Force in the USA - and while you're pondering that report from Thursday here, consider the latest on how private security contractors are behaving in Afghanistan and Iraq according to this MSNBC/NY Times report.
Chill Seattle setting record lows again. As goes Seattle, so too may go much of the country by next week. Wonder if software over in Redmond runs slower because of it? has to be an excuse in there somewhere...
Cash Climate Don't know what to make of the headline that "Oxfam says additional funds needed if Climate Change Conference is to succeed". More in today's "Coping" section... --- Our Simple Minded Solutions Award goes to Gordo Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy this morning after the headline in the Times Online reported that "Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy: banks should pay for climate change."
Someone would need 10 pounds of lard between the ears not to figure out that banks aren't going to print up a solution - they will pass it on to who? Us retail customers - of course! And if Gordo and Sarkozy are trying to point out what callous political hacks they are, well to me this does it in spades. Free (climate) lunches - step this way. Gimme a friggin break.
Once again it becomes clear: Gordo and Sarkozy are all part of the elite globalist club that's trying to come up with a workable scam to set up a system of global taxation beyond the direct control of an electorate. Thanks, but no thanks. I still hold to this thing called a Constitution that's about representation and recall for mis/malfeasance and such. But what would gold-seller Gordo know of such things; sovereignty in particular? Their EU is busily replacing the Magna Carta and woe be to those who question the agenda....
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Coping: The PC Walk Among Us Comes the time of the year when saying "Merry Christmas" is a dangerous thing; such are the concerns about being 'politically correct". Went to the Post Office in town to mail a package on Thursday and lo and behold, there were green (fireproof) hangings on the walls adorned with simple (unlabeled, nondenominational) shiny red glass balls. While I was waiting in line, I held a 5-minute internal screaming match in my head over whether the green was symbolizing where Christianity got Christmas from (co-opting the mid-Winter pagan festival which celebrated rebirth/things being made new again) to integrate Christian practices into formerly pagan traditions.
I wasn't going to mention the "The Marketing History of Christmas" which would make a dandy book, or a subset of a much larger work "Marketing Practices of the World's Religions" which would be a much larger task, but I was reminded of is this morning when a reader sent a nice email which ended with:
I'm pleased that political correctness is still alive; and I need to apologize for using the term "Stewardess" in yesterday's report. When I visualize things in my head (like the economy being similar to a plane in a furious dive toward a mountain, so as the name of the pilot doesn't matter, but you don't want to change him out at that exact moment) my imagery in this case was of a DC-3 of the sort flown over the mountains in one of the Indiana Jones Flicks (Temple of Doom, I think).
Shame on me! I should have used the term "Flight Attendant".
Except I give myself the excuse that I'm not in charge of Sales, In-flight, and Communications for an airline anymore so as a writer, I reserve my right to pen conforming to the imagery in my head, not bounded by secular political correctness. I'm sure that in a lawyer-driven world of political correctness police, I'll be carried off to the re-education camps at some point, but such are the risks of writing.
In an effort to set things straight, I think there's a global need to come up with a cross-denominational single word that encompasses Chanukah, Christmas, Islamic New Year, Kwanza, Laba Festival for the Chinese, and all the rest.
However, in modern marketing practice, we need to keep the number of letters to a maximum of eight, since the layout department graphic artists want something short. Then we have to find something that's cross-culturally correct and doesn't translate from English into Arabic, Turkish, or Chinese into something like 'steaming lumps' or worse.
Not that it's an urgent matter; however since there seems to be a frenzy to install global governance, may I proposed to the PowersThatBe that in my "The Marketing Practices of the World's Religions" the need to institute global holidays as a support system for global governance is clearly outlined! Already, the GPTB (global powers that be) blew it on Earth Day (April 22) which is outside of traditional Western Marketing windows.
If the PTB are going to really get anywhere in their drive for global governance what we need is a commercial holiday that will be:
Seems like it should be easy enough to come up with; Earth Day established a kind of baseline for the new religion of environmentalism, but if the movement is to really get traction, it needs more holidays, especially those of a commercial sort.
As I looked at the SWOT analysis of the problem, I came to a critical insight about the strategic growth problem facing the PowersThatBe. This is one you might want to spend some time pondering:
Truly a problem akin to the snake swallowing its own tail; successful global governance on environmental grounds would be self-liquidating.
Can't have that, now, can we? From whence would the ruling class then draw authority?
Good Feedback on Global Warming Got a very thoughtful letter on the question of climate change/global warming which I'd like to share with you and then some comments:
A very well thought out note. Just a couple of personal comment, however.
I am not a man-caused global warming denier! There is no doubt that jet travel, automobiles, burning Amazonia, and a host of other financial driven climate-changers are real. I don't think I've ever said that. However, given that there are temperature changes going on on places untouched by Man, and given that the greatest driver of all is likely solar output (based on periods of global cooling - the Maunder Minimum, the 'little ice age' in Europe long before industrialization, etc.) a more balanced viewpoint seems in order.
For example, in many of the climate studies, data seem based on 'heat island' effects, where reporting stations have been surrounded with different heat absorptive/refractive surfaces and these skew data over time; just as an example.
Thus, I'm perfectly willing to accept that there is global warming, but my personal sense of the science would be to use temperature data from those stations & area where there has been the least encroachment by man into the data via construction/city-building, and what have you.
The whole issue of homogeneity of data smacks of the same data jiggering that I've noted in many government figures - like unemployment rates that don't count people who have fallen off the unemployment rolls and thus, must not be serious about job-finding; that kind of logic is dangerously misleading.
A sensible climate change analysis model - seems to me - would start at the top and work its way down:
My problem - and it's just me, I suppose - is that I haven't seen a 'soup-to-nuts' climate study following this approach. To do otherwise seems the height of folly - unless, of course, there is a global government agenda in play and setting up a system of carbon trading/carbon credits turns into little more than a power/financing tool to break down national barriers and install a new kind of governance which is several layers removed from direct representation.
Moreover, when I see evidence that direct representation is getting further and further away (as evidenced by yesterday's report on the Rand study which discusses setting up a "Stability Police Force" in the United States, coupled with DoD directives enabling use of civilian contractors in whatever roles seem to feel appropriate - Go read DoD Directive 1404.10 of 23 Jan 09 to see how this works) I wonder if the Constitution isn't already toast.
Given that it is, a top-down approach to climate as I've outlined makes little sense, since the conclusions are preordained, aren't they?
Beating Las Vegas This email is highly interesting - if you follow the notion that humans are co-creators of their lives with a Greater Somethingorother:
This sets off two conflicting notions colliding in my head: one suggests that co-creating for gain is somehow an abuse of powers and may have karmic burdens associated with it, while the other says "Who says?" One of these days, I may go with a small amount of dough to a casino up the road a short piece (Shreveport, LA area) and take a $100 bill and see what happens to it if I run it through the system on behalf of a local food bank. Hmmm...
Meantime, Back at the WuJo Yes, the dojo where science meets woo-woo is getting backed up with projects. The most topical being the disinfo about how the mystery lights in Norway is being hinted by the PTB as being some kind of failed rocket test in the White Sea area. Not hardly, IMHO since I looked at this:
All kinds of possible explanations are on the table, but when you mix up this latest with a double-scoop of 'holes in clouds' which have been showing up in daylight hours off and on, the truly tin-foiled among us are asking is this something to be, uh, conCERNed about?
The Writing Coach ...sends in this:
I would but it overstates human progress by several orders of magnitude, I'm afraid. Zeus the cat reminds me (with something of a sneer, I might add) that "I don't pay taxes and you call yourself an advanced species?"
Coming Up Friday is the last report of the week for non-subscribers. If you want more (would that make you a sadist or masochist?) directions on to subscribe to Peoplenomics are here.
Next scheduled report here will be posted Monday morning, unless world-changing events creep up on us, although we don't show anything scheduled till the context changing starts on the 19th, but that won't be a single event most likely.
This weekend, Peoplenomics features the latest chapter of 13 Acres and Independence, a short discussion of goat ranching economics and the perpetual issue of getting a small farm to pay for itself.
For your Christmas shopping this weekend, be sure and take my gift parameters - and just for the fun of it, see how many you can properly reference - answers Monday:
Shouldn't be too hard to figure, should it? I am, after all, a simple man with simple desires. --- Send your comments to george@ure.net The UrbanSurvival Mall: Peoplenomics This Week Fingerprints of the PTB Don't know if you have noticed the same disturbing trend I have, but when one sits back on a cool morning with no work to think about and reflect over a hot cuppa joe, I get a growing sense that less and less of what's being 'piped' into human melodramatic consciousness can be trusted. It starts as a feeling, but when I started start to add up all the Big Lies of the past few years, the number became impressive; 9/11, the supposed naturally occurring flu, the 'need to war', and more recently, climategate. This week, we review a few of these Big Lies and ask an almost impossible question: "Why?" The answers are few, but we can at least begin framing a large and potentially life-altering answer set. More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Maxa-Cookie Manager Been a while since I've updated you on how many cookies and web bugs have been removed from my main computer by the Maxa Cookie Manager from Maxa Tools: 1,602 web bugs and 54,131 cookies so far. It's amazing.
Take it for a free test drive by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will set you back $35 bucks, but Christmas is coming... Is your privacy worth it? Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time...
"Live on $10,000" A Year With another round of layoffs due to start later this month...a round which will start to axe many of the middle managers who have managed to avoid the HR grenades...might I suggest a preemptive tactical move? Voluntarily dropping your lifestyle back a bit, since we're all being marched down that road by either circumstances or some out-of-control-PTB types who write checks to Washington lobby and to anti-reformers in California! A good starting point, at least if you've still got $10-bucks is my e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left... Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Pass It On The business model of this website is base Simply click here and send a link to this site to everyone on your distro list...Nothing more dangerous than sharp, clear-thinking upstarts who ask a lot of questions, eh? Unless you believe WTC-7 fell over on its own, of course.... ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Thursday December 10, 2009 "Fear Mongers" and the Stabilization Police Force This is rich: Word that president Obama is telling GOP leader "Stop trying to frighten the American people". But it's as good a starting point as any this morning, since the American people, by my reckoning, have plenty to be frightened about, even though it's hidden and obfuscated by the advertiser-owned MainStreamMedia.
For one thing, the entire global financial system, most admit, is still walking on eggshells and could crack at any time. Then we have Climategate to deal with and despite the hoopla in Copenhagen, the best (ok, devastating) analysis I've read of the jiggered data in contained in Willis Eschenbach's analysis "The Smoking Gun at Darwin Zero".
Australian media is reporting that Climate Change Minister Perry "Wong plays down climate talk tensions". Wong answer.
But here's something more worrisome than Climategate or Swine Flu out in the wings. Every so often I get an email that spells out a possible US future in crystal-clear terms - the discussion of which is not fear mongering at all: It's revealing actual planning... but for what? A new kind of police authority is in the works for America.
The document I've been studying is a Rand report called "A Stability Police Force for the United States: Justification and Options for Creating U.S. Capabilities."
In this paper - which to those of us with a strong Constitutional bent and respect for posse comitatus is an exercise in 'thinking the unthinkable' - there's a sort of working conclusion that a new super police agency - a "Stability Police Force" it's called - run by either the military (MP) system or the U.S. Marshall's Service, are achievable options for the US central government to consider implementing.
An extract of the Rand study is illustrative of their thinking:
"Relief from the Posse Comitatus Act"? Stabilization Police Force? Stabilizing what? How?
A check of Wikipedia on the health of Posse Comitatus reveals:
There's a fair amount of discussion in the Rand paper of things like financial disincentives for failing to deploy against fellow citizens and so forth. Chilling stuff to read. --- After a quick read of the Rand study, I figure the emergence of a new Stabilization Police Force is only a matter of time, and depending on how the political winds blow in Washington, I'm just guessing the U.S. Marshall's Service will be a lot of hiring down the road. Either that, of the MP recruiting budget of the Army will be going up. --- When one takes the 2006 announcements that Halliburton subsidiary KBR was awarded up to $385-million to construct temporary detention centers - and couples it with the Rand report - a picture emerges of a vastly less free, much more militarized internal governance structure in America.
A very realistic question to be asked is whether simply reporting these developments in some way sets up a self-fulfilling mechanism. A student of history can see an eerie similarity in temporal markers between the opening of Dachau in 1933 and the ramp-up in hiring of the German SS in the 1932-33 period.
No, there's no detention camps operating yet that I'm aware of, but when they do, it's important to note the discussion of a special "Stabilization Police Force" here in the USA which could be applied against enemies of the State, whatever that definition might include. --- In a chicken & egg sense, which comes first? The talk of a paradigm-changing 'revolution' or excessive State response to dissent? Does it all somehow track back to those Constitution-free zones around the national political conventions because they have become so institutionalized that dissent is no longer honored? I can't say; but the opposites of consensus is dangerous to complex societies; those societies where the marginal rate of return on additional hard work falls below zero which one could argue is in danger of happening planet-wide. --- To what degree is talk of revolutionary change a precursor to its realization or iron-fisted repression? History only provides data; not simple formulas. But the divisions within America between left and right seem to be widening and logically, the more divided a country is, the easier its conquest by those who would argue persuasively for the replacement of its Constitution as somehow 'outdated' and not applicable to what will surely be packaged and sold by the MSM as 'extraordinary times' which will require a 'fresh look'. Kinda like the 'Change' sloganeering. --- I'd also remind you that the U.S. is still under federal state of emergency (e.g. there is no posse comitatus in force right now due to the federally declared pandemic flu emergency) despite the waning of public interest in seasonal flu shots and a lot of right wing charges that it's 'phony flu' and part of some vast conspiracy of the left. Arguably, swine flu is a money-making scam because global business needs something to act as a financial stimulus although word is now leaking out that key WHO advisors may have been paid by big pharma for their efforts to stampede government purchase orders... --- The country is on a delicate path at the moment and while my recent endorsement of Ben Bernanke for a second term at the Fed is cast as some readers as 'cowardice', I'm mindful based on the Rand report and other information I've sought out that the best case forward is a migration path to a new consensus. Absent that - a means of moving in an orderly way as a culture into an evolving and peaceful future - the detention centers and the SPF are forming in the wings and a fine 200+ year experiment in Freedom becomes even more seriously endangered.
Toss into the mix a national leader winning a Nobel Prize while simultaneously committing 30,000 more soldiers to the Afghanistan fray and all I can say to those who charge 'fear mongering' is this: If you're not at least a little fearful based on the under-reported developments going on just under the surface, you don't fully comprehend nor appreciate the scope of the problems and State & PTB responses we're facing as a Nation and as world of humans.
Balance of Trade Newest from the Commerce and Census folks this morning:
Also out this morning, new unemployment claims:
Dollar weakened a bit and futures were pointing up earlier. May drag gold up, too.
Drifts, Drifting, and Drifted For people who've purchased the latest SOTTC ("Shape of Things To Come") report from www.halfpasthuman.com, the 'context change' that's shown (page 8) is now moving from December 29 to a much closer-in as early as the December 19 area.
As the post report processing continues, in predictive linguistics there's a certain amount of 'drift' to the future since the way observer states works, every time the future is viewed, it changes somewhat. In this cases, the date moves a bit (as much as 10-days early).
The uninitiated may wonder "What's a context change"? Not a single big event - just a flow of things that changes the context with which we view events. Remember when the millions of feet hit the street in immigration marches a while back...2006, or so? Before that series of marches, flag raisings, and such, 'illegal immigration' could be viewed narrowly as a single context. But when the context shift arrived, suddenly the issue got a whole lot more complex and multi-dimensional.
I think of it where one context does something akin to linguistic fission - setting off lots of new and different ways of looking at something.
How could it work (and no, I am not saying 'weather/global warming will be IT, this is an example only as a thought experiment, OK?):
Right now the context of global warming has broken loose from its moorings and is drifting about. besides the discussions at Copenhagen, the Climategate hack, the Willis Eschenbach's analysis and such, the aware observer has no doubt noticed that a "Massive storm has buried the central US in snow". 15-foot drifts? Snow already in Houston this year - the earliest ever?
A context change might be something like over a week or two period the US sees something like massive once-in-a-thousand-year snows...or an ice age seems to be forming. That would be a context change because people going outside walking on glaciers in Nebraska would be mighty hard to sell global warming to...and the whole context of everything weather-related (food, for example) would undergo a massive change; things would never be the same thereafter.
Just one possibility, and again, not saying the context will be weather - that's just one possibility. A financial crash would be another candidate for context change, and the list goes on, but that's what context changes are in language reflected in the popular press and the MSM. --- Our kids have been calling us from the Seattle area telling us about record cold up there. Just a bunch of whiners, I thought, until I noticed that it was colder in Seattle (20.5º) when I looked than it was in Anchorage, Alaska (23.3º). OK, maybe its been a little on the cool side....
Financial Calamity Department Thought the global financial mess was over and one with? ha! You wish!. Here's a story that a "Former BoE official Buiter says Greece may be first EU Default."
I think it was Jim Sinclair (www.jsmineset.com) who several years ago described the EU as something like 'a collection of 13 bankrupt countries held together by a common currency'. Sinclair, BTW is predicting that Gold will go past $1,650 and beyond...
It's one thing when a smallish country lands on the financial rocks; Finland or Zimbabwe being recent examples. But, one has to wonder how the global financial system will do with multiple countries imploding at the same time?
In the UK there's talk of taxing banker bonuses at the 50% level, like that's going to change anything. Why, it's like only giving a $100 tip to the airline stewardess serving drinks - in the middle of a plane crash. Of course the stewardess could argue "I didn't know the plane would crash - thanks for the tip" but the more alert would say "Didn't the stewardess think to mention the captain and copilot were drunken on their *sses?" "I'm just a stewardess" in this kind of scenario is akin to "I'm just a banker..."
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snip and save section --- Coping: Busy Times in the WuJo Again Since the past week or two have been exceptionally busy (starting 10 days before Thanksgiving) a lot of things have been piling up in the "WuJo" - which is the Reality Dojo Meets Woo-Woo Department around here. Going through some of the more recent notes to pop in:
Magnetics Adventures, 101 Unless you live under a rock and would never venture into a WuJo on a bet, then you probably have already read the story about how there's a "Mystery as spiral blue light display hovers above Norway".
My best guess? A Project Blue Beam tuning test. Mentioned at the David Icke forums here, and Wikipedia deleted the entry as not substantiated, but you can read more here, too, including about the untimely death of the researchers...
Alternative B: CERN is opening up dimensional portals. How do you spell Ooops?!
Magnetic Adventures, 102 A while back I told you about a paper on the Los Alamos server about reported changes in gravity in the vicinity of low pressure plasma. You can find it if you go Googling, although I don't see the LANL server listed as a source any longer, but try here for your own copy, if you didn't save a local copy when it was on a public LANL server. No telling how long this will be available.... Key Lesson to be learnt? Important papers can (and do) often disappear off the 'net so grab it and have a filing system set up for good stuff you stumble on that might be 'disappeared'. --- Meantime, back at the WuJo I've decided to do a little research on this to see if I can duplicate the effects in may decently equipped home physics lab & machine shop where things like low frequency HO audio oscillators and a nice dual trace scope are readily available.
In addition to the low pressure plasma found in a T-20 fluorescent light, I've also ordered a couple of 7" plasma lights like you've maybe seen in clubs, bars, or what-have-you's; these are the ones which seem to be balls with lightning in them. Since I've got almost DC-to-Daylight generator capability, the idea of stacking these is intensely interesting, particularly since there are enough memes about pooh-poohing the idea of HF radio as a source that it got me to thinking back on an experience that I had as a kid that I've never written about before.
When I was about 15-years old, and really active in ham radio, I used to put a couple of used 40-watt fluorescent tubes on the 80-meter (3.8 MHz) dipole antenna. These would light up when I talked and I could see looking out the basement window by judging the intensity of the light coming off the bulb how good the energy transfer was from the transmitter to antenna. No problem so far.
Except that it was along at this one point in my life where I had what is even to this day the scariest thing happen to me ever. I was taking a snooze - dozing/thinking on the bed in my basement/radio room (so I didn't keep the rest of the family up all night) when I was started by an alien-looking critter about 4-feet tall carrying some kind of weapon with a bunch of tubes on it in very sci-fi fashion and wearing an kind of iridescent green/blue vest which had about 2" quilting on it. Short tail.
So this guy looking at me with lizard-like eyes and says "This one must die..." and he opens the door and leaves. Took me about 3-minutes to gain my composure and open the door since I was shaking with fear because of the absolutely visceral reaction to the little slimy expletive-deleted. This was scarier than going up in an airplane and doing my first spin, even. Right down in the core experience.
When I opened the door, there was (naturally) no one there in the rest of the basement and I immediately went upstairs to tell the family what had just happened. I was shaking and they were "Oh, uh...yeah...whatever...". Until I read the paper off the Los Alamos site - and then bumped into what now read like 'don't go here's' about HF energy exciting this fluorescents to cause gravity anomalies, I hadn't put 2+2 together.
Ever since that time, I've convinced myself that this was just some kind of near-waking-state nightmare augmented by reading everything around in the way of science fiction (including UFO tales). However, that was before I read the Los Alamos paper suggesting something about plasma and energy and gravity. Now although the rational science mind says "No way! Don't waste your time!" there enough radio gear, antennas and fluorescent lights around that if there is something going on...I now have the technical tools to record it and get it on YouTube.
Rationally, I expect that no interdimensional critters will come calling as was also purported to have happened in the Montauk Project, but I have high power magnetics, signal generators and I'm collecting a few low pressure plasma tools, just to tinker with it. Besides, having also now studied Maxwell's early lectures, there's no easy explanation of what those lines are that run orthogonally to magnetic lines of force around bar magnets - you know - the force that pushes the magnetic lines out. Never get good answers to that one from physicists I've met over the years other than a 'that's just how they work'. Not good enough for me, so I go off adventuring into this area over the holidays. If one of the reptiles with thick legs, short tails, and a bad attitude shows up, I'm pretty much past the fear of death stuff and I want some damn answers.
Also looking to see if OHSA has a tinfoil hat standard for such exercises. If I get any odd green mists or scaly critters come calling, I'll have several data streams, a well annotated lab book and HD video rolling for my successors to find. --- A little easier but just as edgy? "Secret Space Fleet - Antigravity - SUPPORT Gary Mckinnon with Ed Grimsley 2009 HD Delta rev" on YouTube. I was really skeptical till about 4:30 into the video when the 'delta' showed up. I'll have to do a little looking on the clear mornings down here with out Gen2+...but when it's 28º, I'm not inclined to spend much time outdoors between warm house and warm office...
Magnetics Adventures, 103 Then I got this snip from a forum about magnets losing their magnetism:
Best guess? Cheap magnets made in the 3rd world - likely glue and steel powder that just doesn't last long. At least that'd be my first guess, anyway...
WuJo, 2: Warnings from the Future Several readers have sent in notes about the oft reliable reader who had a dream about a '7.5' earthquake in Georgia' which I mentioned in this section in early December. Of course, that dream came to pass with a 7 Dec. quake that was 3.2 - a far cry from the 7+ expectation he'd been given in the dream.
But now here where things get interesting. Recall what our EQ tipster had been looking for: "Another dream: 7.5 quake centered in or near Newnan, GA pending. If I had to pin a date on it I'd say "tonight, 12/02/09."
Now the woo-woo part as the dreamer sent this follow-up:
Since this was quite publicly forecast in our Wednesday December 2 update (here) it's a dandy example of how at a global mass consciousness level, aspects and attributes of the future 'leak' into our consciousness. To the degree we can be 'clear' of interference, people seem to have some undeveloped ability to access parts of the future. It's the interference - likely things like stress, too much book learning & too little nature appreciation, along with setting up paradigm patrols that keep us from touching those areas of human consciousness where the action is, but at the same time hold some level of personal danger - that keep some critical mass of people from shared dreaming, shared futuring and perhaps even advanced forms of communications which could facilitate another level of human development.
The challenge is to sort out how it all works since it seems to happen in certain trance-like states (Nostradamus and his tripod of oil), comes through at 'voice of God' in waking/drowsing moments, or, in this case, as slightly jumbled information in dream state. Others get there in meditative states through practices like Yoga and work on raising kundalini, while in other traditions it happens when one 'touches the stream'.
The aware human's task (if you're serious about foreknowledge) is to extract a design pattern from all this and figure out how it works so that it can be done more on less at will.
If I ever get it sorted out, I figure a good place to test it would be...a casino maybe? But even pure science has 'blow-back' associated with it, as the development of nuclear weapons demonstrates and this would be in many ways far more powerful...
Thank You! A reader (Martin) noted that I have a fondness for coffee and sent a delightful Christmas gift: A 12-volt powered electric coffee warming mug and an assortment of coffees to try. If one of these mornings the column sounds unusually wakeful, that'll be the reason.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009 Another Climate 'Leak' Why, it's getting to be a near regular thing in the climate debate: The latest being that "Poor nations' fury over leaked climate text" is popping out of Climatehagen this morning. The gist of it seems to be that the big, Western, rich, industrialized countries want to put caps on third world developing countries which are still ramping up industrialization. What's happened with today's leak is that the third world/poor countries seem to be getting enough time to study what's called the "Danish text" that they're figuring out that guess what? Victims yet again.
Seems to me that just as the West is recolonizing the Middle East with trinkets like ski and mega resorts in the desert in return of oil a form of oil indenture, so to, climate burdens will be used to extract maximum carbon-credit trade benefit to the West when all's said and done.
Not that it comes as too much of a surprise to the watchful. While "Human role in climate change not in doubt- UN's Ban" is true, what's also true is that poor people eking out dinner over a village fire is a little different kind of pollution than the tons of carbon dumped by a typical jet flight.
That's something which hasn't escaped the notice of Adair Turner, who chairs the UK government's Committee on Climate Change (we don't use name symbology like 'lord' around here) who is talking about higher travel taxes on frequent flyers. --- I've got a pet theory about this climate stuff: How much different, do you suppose the approach would be if every participant in the decision-making process was barred for life from benefiting in the eventual outcome? In other words, how many of the participants are going to come out of Copenhagen and turn right around and become carbon magnates?
Best I can figure this, it's like having a convention where the foxes and chickens get together and the foxes (running global media) pressure the public toward this outcome, or that. Seems to me the chickens ought to be mighty careful - and with today's "Danish leak" it seems they will be.
Not that there's any escaping it, since EPA is gonna get us if the global climate carbon magnate game doesn't first. Still, freedom was a nice thing while it lasted, just never thought I'd see it blinking out in my lifetime. --- Great guns for the market which is showing as though a strong open is in the works. Even if the Ure-Indicator on Gold to Dow isn't reliable, I sure wouldn't be surprised to see a 100-150 point flare-up in the Dow at the open.
17 Spotless Days Over at www.psaceweather.com - another goose egg for sunspots. 17 days this will be. --- Winter's here with part of the upper Midwest facing a blizzard warning today. My commodity guy JB up in Arizona had his greenhouse ruins by wind and 4" of snow earlier this week and it was a mess up in the Colorado Rockies yesterday. 7.2" up at Grand Junction.
I mention the sunspots since a lack of spots is associated with global cooling and things like shrimp production have been associated with sunspots, too.
You can see in the latest NOAA chart posted yesterday how the gap between 'predicted' sunspot activity and actual is opening up...but look closely at the NOAA chart here - see anything of interest?
If you're really alert, you'll see that "Data through Nov 09". Problem is that we are now 17 days without a spot and that will further the divergence. That will put the line back down on zero through into early December at a minima (poor pun intended).
Not only that - and I can't prove this since I didn't save the last couple of monthly updates, but if my memory is serving me right, the red bulge is being shifted to the right as these reports come out...so I've saved the graphic with a date stamp on it and we can compare things in a month or so, but if the data prediction line slides to the right, I wouldn't get too surprised. Don't want to panic sheep and all.
Eye-balling it and knowing we have over a half month of flat-lined to add to the chart, if we get anything like symmetry in this chart's development, world's going to be in a food crisis from cooling that will develop over the next 4-5 years that will dwarf any news story in recent global memory.
But hey, don't let that ruin your morning. We still have food now....although I will be calling the NOAA folks asking for the older charts if I get some time. Damn inconvenient for the global warming stampeders, though.
CBO Blues Say, who says the economy isn't booming? Why already the US is $292-billion in the red for the fiscal year which is...er....two months old! Lemme see now: $292 times 6 would be 1.752 trillion compared with $1.4 trillion last year....yep, that's change, awright.
Doing a Job on Us President O has laid out his jobs plan for the country...another 'spend our way rich" scheme rewrite, but given that it's all we've got (till the global war threat meme comes along to make everyone either glow or make sacrifices) it's about all they've got, except CO2 and Copehtradin. But no point getting ahead of the liebretto. (sic) --- Turkey continues to resist sanctions against Iran as the pot boils on that front.
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Coping: Beat With the Funny Stick in Ulcer Gulch by Doctors and Bankers A number of readers have been asking me "Why you been so serious, lately, George?" I guess the answer is that there are some number of very serious things going on in my life which has taken the funniness out of my sails [temporarily] and done so in stick-like fashion.
Just as one example, Elaine had been having some health issues which had signs of being a serious disease off in the wings. My humor is back, although not at full-strength yet, since we got the good news yesterday that the symptoms all traced back to nothing more serious than a mild case of acid reflux disorder. Easily cured - so we're told - with a change of diet. What was interesting in one of those sly - wink from Universe - kind of ways is that the symptoms have been caused by Elaine's pursuit of excellent health,
For example, eating lots of tree nuts - something I thought was good - turns out, when done too much, to actual trigger reactions in some people. Ditto drinking milk, too much fish oil, and so forth. A simple change in her diet we're promised, will set everything right. But putting extra flax seed on the cereal? Nope. And no milk on it - on to Rice Dream on that one. No eating and then crashing - got to stay up for a couple of hours; most easily fixed by not working on projects till 9 PM and then getting around to eating. More like eat around 5 PM and then work till tired. That kind of thing.
The funny part here is what? We got all worried about something potentially life-threatening, which turns out to be simple to fix. Ha ha! Good one. My foot. --- Still, there are plenty of other stresses around the normally peaceful ranch - a couple of goats not going well, a quiet spell in consulting (a seasonal thing), and one of my every-so-often goat flare-ups. All manageable, but none of them the kind of thing I'd run out and do for play, if you know what I mean.
Then there's the current beating with the funny stick being administered by bankers via the issue of interpreting what will happen to the banking system in the USA after the first of January 1st. If you go to a bank, you'll many of them are putting up signs that mumble something whether the bank is participating in something called the Transaction Guarantee Program (TGP) under the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP). I don't go to banks very often, but after getting several reports I decided to look into what's going on in detail since there are so many rumors about the net about the country's financial condition of late.
Pay attention: There will be a quiz on this: Many banks, like this one at the other end of this here link, are participating in the TGP under the TGLP until June 30, 2010.
A LOT of other banks, including one we do business with presently are opting out as of December 31st. The opt-out option is explained on the FDIC web site here, and it includes the posting requirement:
So, I got to asking "Just what is a noninterest-bearing transaction account?"
The answer is found reading deeper into the FDIC definitions:
But now here's the kicker (and where it starts to impact operations out here at Uretopia Ranch): Some banks have figured out that "free checking accounts" are presently covered by by the TLGP and if it's linked to a low/no-interest savings account, that low/no interest savings account would not be covered under TLGP if the bank opts out early.
OK, easy enough: So, how do we figure out who is opting out early and who is planning to stay covered by the TLGP until 30 June '10? Turns out you have to look in several places. From the FDIC website (linked here) we read:
The first list has 1,110 banks on it (sorted by state to help out, or you can use the 'find' command in Excel). The second list has 525 banks on it.
Since we do business with one of the banks on one of the lists, and since that means that our free checking will not be covered by the TAG on or after Jan 1, 2010 if I read this right, we get to make an interesting strategic decision (as presumably so do you if you have a 'free checking' account that's considered covered presently by the TLGP and your bank is opting out early:
While its a political certainty that FDIC will never be allowed to go broke, there's the little matter of timely settlement that concerns me. Since we presently use one of those non-interest bearing accounts that may not be covered after January 1, here's my personal strategy to deal with the matter.
This may seem like a 'belt & suspenders' approach, but if there's a risk - even though very small - that I could have delayed check clearings and such, then I want to hedge against the possibility well ahead of systemic changes.
A Reuters story here in the past couple of days notes that one family in four in the US is already out of the banking system for a variety of reasons. While the story paints a picture of mostly poor or minorities being involved (and I like the term "under-banked" a lot) it's just possible as a way-out fringe contingency that the term "under-banked" who might fall on those who are not aware of the possibility that the non-covered 'free checking' category might be covered by FDIC but not TLGP. And with FDIC running in the red - with something like 184 banks estimated to be facing failure in the next year,
So that's how I plan to get out my funny stick out to beat the bankers back: I'm planning to do my dead-level best to spend it all over the next week so that it all clears before the TLGP coverage comes off. HispanicBusiness.com recently noted that "Problem' Banks reach 16-year high" while Australia's Sydney Morning Herald headlined it as "US banks not out of danger; FDIC".
Belt and suspenders is one way to look at it. Another is a very cautious operating mode that's consistent with my core philosophy of life: "I'm not trying to win the most, I'm just trying to lose the least."
Somnambulists Awaken! Anthony Ring's latest post 'Breathing Molasses" likens the behavior of many people in the US to sleep apnea. Not bad since it builds on the idea of a sleep-walking public; a concept hard to dispute. If you do, I'll try to beat you with my funny stick till you get it.
The Quake Dream Readers want to know:
Yeah...except he had it as a 7.5 so I've sent him out to the lab to be recalibrated. The lab, in response, said they had no idea what an "NIST traceable dream calibration was..." Damn cut-rate labs, anyway. Maybe I should send him to India for calibration...
(If you don't know that NIST is the National Institute for Standards and Technology, the odd humor may be lost on you, so we'll try a little less highbrow stuff next...)
Discretion is the Better Part Of Golf Department A few caffeine Jolted readers have noticed I haven't said much about the purported escapades of Tiger Woods. While "Playgirl rep taking a close look at Tiger photos" may be of prurient interest to some, I must confess to be one of those old-fashioned golfers who plays the game one hole at a time; on and off the course. It's tended to me out of the rough in most cases.
Tuesday December 8, 2009 Clean Air at What Cost? The Environmental Protection Agency announced on Monday that under the Clean Air Act, greenhouse gases, including CO2 were going to be regulated in the interest of public health.
Along with this comes publication in the Federal Register - you can read the final rfindings here. --- As is the case with many decisions, this one has balanced implications. On the one hand it will improve air quality, but there will be a cost associated with it and this is something where industry is already getting worried. The USA Today headline "EPA's carbon dioxide ruling could raise energy costs" is certainly a possibility, because where I sit, even if there was no actual reason to increase prices, industry would raise prices anyway just to get a little more dough out of customers. This is a fine chance for a costs plus pass-through.
There's a little deeper issue, however. It has to do with common sense, but since the CO2 regs will impact vehicles, here's something to be thinking about. In regulations there's an apparent conflict between safety and environmental concerns. On the one hand, the federal vehicle safety requirements put out this and that requirement for air bags, crash resistance, and so forth, which adds to vehicle weight. But, at the same time, along comes the CO2 finding which will mean more effort at clean-burn technologies which will up costs.
A sensible approach would be to rethink vehicular transportation from the ground up. What would happen if vehicle requirements were weight & mileage-based, instead of the complex maze of current regulations? Seems to me that a four-passenger go-kart would be a lot of fun - much smaller than today's vehicles and since they'd be lighter, extremely good mileage - which translates to lower emissions would come along with it.
I think VW is on the right track with their L-1 concept car, but I've heard where that kind of vehicle won't fly because it may not meet crash test standards. What seems to be in the wings is a move by multiple manufacturers to come out with ultra light trike (three-wheelers) in order to avoid onerous federal crash regs. Nothing I'm aware of says that a motorcycle can't be enclosed, right?
If I were just throwing a dart on this, I'd guess that motorcycle licensed trikes with ultralight bodies may be coming...with extreme gas mileage and low emissions. A somewhat higher personal risk, but only during the window where we get rid of thinking that says a car must be this big and must weigh that much for good roadability. Bonus: Ultralight cars will reduce repair & maintenance costs associated with highway use.
Maybe one of these days states will wise up and allow us small time mechanics to license some of the more innovative ultra light cars that could come out of home garages. Europe is way ahead of the US in many regards - taxing vehicles based on weight being one of them.
In the end, clean air gets to be a complex formula involving speed, size, weight, fuel, and required regulatory compliance. And that's just one cars.
Iraq Flare-Up So, you thought Iraq was secured and getting back to normal? Depends what you mean by 'normal' anymore, since more than 110-people have been killed in coordinated bomb attacks there overnight.
No doubt, this will cause policy problems for the Obama administration which has just recently decided to send 30,000 additional US troops to Afghanistan -- not bad for a Nobel Peace Prize winner - the WH says he will mention it in his Nobel speech Thursday which oughta be interesting.
Then there's the report this past week that Osama bin Laden was sighted in Afghanistan in 2009. Why bin Laden hasn't been found - after 9½ years, untold billions (or, is it trillions now?) and with a $50-million dollar bounty on his head, continues to swirl around the op-ed pages. --- The basic facts of the conflict haven't been reframed so far; the US still needs oil and has taken to a re-colonization via lifestyle dependencies approach, witness the "Mercedes Benz fully built in White Gold body (Abu Dhabi registration)" that made headlines in May and is circulating in an email around the web presently.
Not that they get the English language emails, but a lot of regular folks in the Middle East who are not awash in dough hear enough from the jihadists that participating in anti-American/anti-West actions becomes a fairly easy sell; the underlying positioning of the conflict being the haves versus have-nots, while the stated positioning goes virtuous versus infidels.
The pending Israeli attack on Iran factors into the same conflicted market. Internally, Iran is threatening tougher action against those who question its political and nuclear agenda at home; just one consequence of the hardening of positions.
The Jerusalem Post this morning proclaims in a headline that "Iran can now produce nuclear bomb". Not a surprising assertion since there are plenty of nuclear scientists floating about and North Korea has been pedaling its technology to whoever's got a checkbook. That Iran has just announced plans to expand the number of enrichment facilities means they have a target dispersal agenda in play and before those get into production, Israel will likely feel compelled to act. Then it's only a matter of how large the reaction will be.
Ben's Cautious FAQ With gold making another double-digit drop this morning, I expect the market will fall as well. Futures are pointed that-a-way.
If you didn't read it, Ben Bernanke's FAQ speech at the Economic Club of Washington is a pretty good summary of where the economy is, although I think his estimate of strength is a little too optimistic.
My own inclination is to expect a double-dip since commercial real estate may only be sidestepping the hangman's noose on seasonal factors associated with Christmas spending. While a rally lasting as long as March is possible, there's also the ugly an linguistics bump-in-the-road of a context change toward the end of this month that may recalibrate everything held as current expectations. Depending on how those winds of change blow. The latest linguistics report is available from Cliff's site here.
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Coping: Holiday (Boardroom) Driving Back in my 'working for others' days I did a lot of time in boardrooms doing what we called 'driving'. The gist of it was that in client meetings, one of the senior members of the firm would do the client presentation while a next-layer-down person (one under 'C' level, if you will) would do what we called 'driving'.
The purpose of the 'driver' was to handle all the non-spoken parts of the meeting, as well as act as an instant critic being empowered to toss in an occasional comment where appropriate because the driver had the ability to 'sit back' from the C-level's talk and make sure that a) they weren't getting off point and that b) the client was tracking and if 'b' happened, c) figure out a way to get the client back on the same page as the presentation. Worked dandy.
Anyway, the reason for mention thing is about five-fold this morning; first just to mention the technique and that nothing is cooler than to have someone running a PowerPoint for you who 'gets it' (even authoring) the .PPT and then making sure everyone is tracking.
The second point would be to mention that nothing is cooler in a sale presentation than to have an assumption spreadsheet ready (behind, not shown to client unless needed) with all the 'deal points' so that assumption errors can be tabled, discussed, modified and committed to if necessary by the C-level who can effectively bind the company. Which means if you try the technique that you need the driver to be really good at spreadsheets. More important in any kind of sales setting is to have written out the business logic in support of your sales pitch showing incontrovertible reasons why your product/service/whatever is superior from a dollars and sense standpoint. (sic)
Third point is that another application to have ready is a blank .PPT so that notes on the discussion after the presentation can all be captured and written as the participants are all around the table. Especially important in a sales setting so that there's no coming back later with "No, I didn't say that" when a client tries to weasel out of a commitment or position. You'll be in a position to be able to say "Look: We documented the meeting as we went and you didn't say that - in fact we had it up on the screen and entered it right there with you watching and what you said was...."
The fourth point is that there are a couple of great tools available for capturing free-ranging discussions for non-closure meetings (product development and such), one of which is Inspiration which you can see at www.inspiration.com. I mention it because it is incredibly simple being designed for grade schoolers, yet powerful enough so that it makes business logic sense.
Inspiration (Version 9 due out shortly) is really cool from a writing standpoint - besides being a great flowchart tool. No, not as fully featured as MS Visio which does fine, too. But the nice thing about Inspiration is that once you put up a bunch of boxes in a flow diagram and label them, you can simply change views and you've got an outline in Word that you can then 'write to' in supporting written materials.
There are a couple of other tools that work in similar fashion; Cliff's a fan of something called "FreeMind". FreeMind is more complicated, Java-based [available here at SourceForge], and has some very powerful features like being able to hook into a SQL database.
All of which is a lot of foreplay to get to what got me started on mentioning the techniques behind successful 'boardroom driving': There's a never "Online Diagramming and Design" tool out called 'Creately' which has a nice cross-section of features from the Visio/Inspiration/FreeMind class of products but which is built for the shared online environment. Demo and such available here.
Something else to think about - long as we're on the topic - is the business model behind the online collaborative tools like this one. A little study of the Creately pricing plan (here) brings it into focus. If you subscriber to Peoplenomics, see Issue 429-B, 11/15/2009 "Life through Business Model Glasses"
Creately - and I'd venture a lot of other software firms - are moving toward continuing tariffs (effectively renting) for software. The problem is that ongoing software development costs a lot of money and once someone buys a copy of something, the incentive to upgrade is sometimes minimal. I know people from 'back in the day' who ran Ashton-Tate's MultiMate for 8-9 years. Their reasoning was pretty sound, too: Why bother upgrading? Doesn't change basic typing speed, does it?
To be sure, that's maybe where software is headed - toward something I categorized back in 2002/2003 as the 'evergreen software' concept. In this business model, a software company with a high-end product with complex ongoing support issues such as CRM or ERP-oriented products, need to figure out a feature set enhancement path so that the customer has a reason to be constantly paying for constantly upgraded software.
Over time, I wouldn't be surprised to see Google Docs, just as an example, to migrate from a bsic 'free' model (although maybe even here there'd be the opportunity for some kind of revenue stream from advertising, for example) to a 'Pro' version with a lot more bells and whistles in return for 'x' dollars per month.
Like I've said for years: How much improvement can you do to a word processing program? Inputs are going to be pretty much limited by spoken speech speeds if you use Dragon Speaking, to maybe 120 WPM. Even if you're a good typist like me (I charge extra for all the errors in these morning reports) you're still bound at about that 100 WPM range. nevertheless, Microsoft keeps coming up with new features that I find useful, and I'd bet Google and other online word processing projects will head in the same direction: basic functional free, but then scaling up the features as the pricing model steps in and starts to generate the revenue so that ongoing development can be funded.
This is where you'll get the ultimate show-down between open source, one payment licensing, and continuous payment models. Marketplace will decide.
Meantime, I've made a note to ask my friend who used MultiMate
for years in the business she was CEO of, whether she's tried
firing it up under Windows 7 yet. Just in the name of
science, mind you; that'd be the equivalent of getting what?
1,200 miles per gallon? LOL. Behind the pricing model decision is an even bigger - more fundamental - issue which doesn't make it to the front of daily tech rags: How much functionality is "enough"? As far as I know there are only so many classes of software out there: Spreadsheets, word processors, databases, games, utilities and OS's, and hybrids.
Oh, sure, there are a ton of additional features not to mention the hooks into Visual Basic from Excel these days, but when I'm adding up columns of numbers, the answer is the same as it was when I was model airline route yields on a Commodore PET using VisiCalc 25-years ago.
All of which gets down to the simple points of this note: 1) Make sure the business model has unassailable business logic and that gets communicated to the customer and 2) Lots of new and improved ways to tell that story but none of it matters unless 3) The C-level people can delegate driving so that they can do only one thing in the boardroom: Get the answers they went in there for.
I Sit Corrected In yesterday's column, my caffeine deficiency was showing when I asked "Why isn't Dick Rutan running NASA?" What I should have said is "Why isn't Burt Rutan running NASA?" Dick is the pilot, brother Burt's the designer/engineer. I've also dropped a note in Mrs. Olson's personnel file about the caffeine levels.
Speaking of spacey things...
Orbs at the WuJo, Redux The Orb Society channel has an interesting Fox News piece on orbs up at James Gilliand's place in Trout Lake, Washington. As our resident orb tracker noted:
Yep, seems to be. We'll keep an eye on things. Lots of Iridium type satellites up there, however, but last time I checked, they don't do discontinuous motions and trading places with one another. That's how you separate LEO satellites from orbs & objects. Also satellites are more likely an hour or two either side of sunset when the observer's part of earth is in the dark, but there's light at high altitude. Middle of the night, in deep sun shadow...that's a more problematic.
Monday December 7, 2009 Boring Markets Week? America's in a box, not a pine one (at least not yet)...more like one of those old times TV Western Box Canyon kind of boxes. The Stimulus that was supposed to usher in a strong economic recovery has failed to do much more than line a few purses of the well-connected. Now, we're seeing headlines that the Washington Jobs Summit last week was something of a charade and moderate mid-sized papers like the Santa Rosa Press Democrat are calling for more stimulus - now. The problem is that creating jobs is easier said than done.
For one thing, it takes consumer demand. When this afternoon's Consumer Debt report comes out from the Fed ( 2 PM ET) nothing would surprise me less than to see another $12-billion drop in consumer spending. Hard to grow jobs under those conditions. Just starting up this morning, the dollar is up somewhat, which is driving the gold and commodity prices lower.
Maybe part of the drop in gold was to keep some fat currency calls from ending last week in the money, or maybe it was the PPT intervening a bit to keep inflation expectations dialed back with the Treasury out pedaling $130-billion worth of paper this week. Lower inflation expectations can mean lower borrowing costs and that reduces the cost of government. Or, looked at another way, it may allow for more stimuli - emphasis on the second syllable, please. --- A look at the Dow shows the 50-day moving average is just a tab over 10,000. A combination of a stronger dollar - which will take some of the 'inflation premium' out of the market might get us down to test the 50-DMA later in the week, but all depends on the data due out and how things line up for next week's triple witching. I'd expect the week to be pretty boring as the balance of forces works out; the seasonal Santa Claus rally means the Trade Balance Thursday and retail & inventory numbers on Friday.
Next week will be a lot more interesting, since we'll get a Fed rate decision (no move, trust me on this one), CPI and PPI - and maybe an EIEIO report from old McDonald. Or, more seriously (but not too much so) we ought to get a monthly crop outlook update from the USDA along here later this week. I'm fond of digesting food reports, he mumbled comically.
If you're a trader, this is the week to put the monitors on snooze-control and get the Christmas shopping finished up. And if you're in the reported $21-billion dollar Goldman Sachs, I'd like a new Porsche Turbo, anthracite but if that's a little much, I'd be mighty pleased with a used RUF 993 TurboR like this one. Am I easy to shop for, or what?
Besides, you can afford it: Why the administration is saying the cost of the Bailouts just got $200-billion cheaper! Don't think of it as a waste of $150,000! Think of it as 0.00000000075 ( or 0.000000075% ) of the bailout cost savings.
New SOTTC Report The follow-on to the ALTA reports from www.halfpasthuman.com is out - Shape of Things To Come. And, guys like Les Visible are already wading through it.
Not going to jump up and down and tell you what's in it since if you really want a linguistic peek ahead you'd spend the $10 bucks.
Fund Raiser? When I read "Senator Dodd to press financial reform ahead: aides" I wonder...how does this figure into fund raising for the next election cycle? Isn't he up in 2010? Here are some figures through September of this year. Seems to be running ahead of other members of the senate if I read the chart right...
Cold Winter I keep looking at the NOAA sunspot chart and realizing that again this morning, www.spaceweather.com shows a big fat goose egg for sunspots. Say, you don't suppose old saying like "As above, so below" got to be old sayings because there was and is a grain of truth to them, do you? --- Much is being made by climate skeptics of the 1,200 limos and 140 private planes and caviar wedgies at Copenhagen. I'd go but our Gulfstream is in for a D check, sorry. Darn, hate it when that happens. --- The city laid out most like a pizza (large, flat, and round) I've ever spent time in (Sacramento) is due to get a dusting of snow this week. Next thing youi know, hell will freeze over and California will solve its budget problems. Well, maybe it won't get that cold....
Precursor? Email...
Seems that may mean the Iran attack is pushed some distance back into 2010 - middle to end of January at the earliest, I suspise. Thanks for the heads-up.
Iran Destablizing Although I haven't seen much on Iranian national television (You do keep a free-to-air-dish pointed at the international birds, right?) there's continuing news out of the US-backed Voice of America suggesting rioting and clashes with authorities in Tehran.
Could it be that the fine are of Tweeting up flash mobs is being worked out successfully enough to slow Iran's agenda?
Historical Notes Researchers think they have solved some of the mystery surrounding a Japanese mini-sub that was in Pearl Harbor back in 1941.
Around here, I use the 1943 issue of the steel penny to mark the end of the Great Depression; my continuing worry is that as the Second Depression drags out, the only way out of it will be some global conflict (not sure if global anarchy would fill the bill).
But speaking of that, more protests in Greece over the death of a teenager a year ago. Curious how things echo over time, isn't it?
Out on the Final Frontier The report that "Virgin Galactic to unveil commercial spaceship" has me wondering how to get enough money into the piggybank to afford such a trip. $200-large is a fair chunk of cash.
But the story has another dimension to it, a nagging question that seems someone with a little horsepower in Washington ought to be asking:
"How come Dick Rutan isn't running NASA?"
--- Coping: With Hard Management Decisions One of my more controversial positions was covered in Peoplenomics this week - supporting the reconfirmation of Ben Bernanke, but also one of the most productive. If you don't get the 'full meal deal' around here by subscribing (which would make a fine Christmas gift, BTW) my support for Bernanke boiled down to several key points:
There were a couple of other points, too, such as an explanation of how where we are in the business cycle (declining lifestyle due to consumer supersaturation) might make his impact minimal.
The comments & feedback so far have covered this range:
But on the flip side:
Controversial though the position is, it has turned into a fine example of how hard-headed decisions can sometimes produce the rare Best of Class inputs that have the potential to save the day. It came from a friend (Howard Hill) in answer to my stating I'm not prepared to debate Bernanke's renomination unless you've specifically got a better alternative to table who would meet all those bullet points above. Turns out, Howard knows of one candidate...
A couple of takeaways from this: First - and most important - is that there really are people out there who might be better at Fed bossing than Bernanke. What we - as a country - ought to be doing is trying to cobble up what in the marketing would call a 'product migration path' that doesn't trash the existing economy, or start revolution in the streets where decision-making tends to be more spontaneous.
Maybe the reason Rogoff hasn't been tapped for a national economic post is that he's perhaps too much of a truth-teller compared to Summers, Bernanke, and Geithner. Or, maybe he's so smart he doesn't want to sit behind the wheel of this bus now that it's gone over the cliff and is in mid-air.
International consensus is Bernanke knows what he's doing. Over the rest of this week, I'll be reading Rogoff''s book as a reality check.
This afternoon the Fed's Consumer Debt report comes out. Until Consumer Debt stabilizes, Bernanke's bus is still flying in the general direction dictated by gravity. Absent a better alternative (which I think there is with Rogoff to name one) let the bus driver keep trying.
By now the whole country ought to have learned a bitter lesson about "Change" for change sake. Even if there are more than 1,110 days left. --- Another reader feedback to share on this - with another damn fine idea offered:
Already has. I'm reminded by Universe that there are really smart people about and that gives me great hope. I mean after 1,110 days.
Around the Ranch: DHVMF Let's see how good a detective you really are; here's the evidence:
All in the interest of trying to do 2-days a week of eating vegetarian. This is Day #2. Thought I'd try and get in the spirit of saving the environment but I get terribly confused on points like this one: I don't understand which is a greater threat: Eating beef and having the T-Bone since it will assure that at least one animal won't be emitting methane, or the cow lives and farts. Oh well, back to pondering egg noodles. Mañana...
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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