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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday, January
9, 2010 07:55 CST New
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Saturday's report is posted for subscribers on the Peoplenomics.com but begins... Checkbook Republic Rules Ah, fine stuff to begin the coffee with: Word in the NY Times this week that a whole series of legal decisions are piling up that will make it easier for corporations, unions, and above all special interest groups to buy their legislative agendas. Why we don't just subcontract congress out to eBay is beyond me. At least there we'd see who the high bidder is and be able to leave negative feedback, know what I'm sayin'? More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Friday January 8, 2010 Bot Hit in the Offing? "Day After Tomorrow" Round One? Had an interesting conversation with my colleague Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com on Thursday - author of the Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis (ALTA) reports which have been skinnied up to the smaller "Shape of Things To Come" (SOTTC) reports. The sequence, which often gives useful information about future events, seems to be in process of making another 'hit' as in the early December report there was this outlook for the 'context change' we're now in:
In earlier runs (ALTA and SOTTC) the data had been messy in the sense that the diaspora/relocation language was temporally concurrent with the clamp-down by the PTB (hear them jackboots?) as they try to enforce ever-higher level of control in order to maintain position/power through events that promise to be very disruptive out into the foreseeable future. But significantly, in the early views it looked like the humans would be fleeing north to Canada. Now, however, looks like the flow of bodies could be south; perhaps from the Canadian plains into the US, and/or from the northern US states to the (hopefully warmer) mid and southern states. Directionals (like north & south) are way down in the noise in the data and hard to get right...
With the caveat that the ALTA/SOTTC reports tend (by their very linguistic-dependent) nature to err on the side of grim and extreme, we nevertheless have our eyes watching for next weather systems and along with that the interesting possibilities that shutting down (even substantially delaying) Canadian and northern States grain operations would have on the global food supply.
Once again, I'd draw your attention to the continuing theme around encouraging people to plant whatever they can from heritage/heirloom plant stocks in order to build a personal buffer as best you can for what could be a scarcity of food later this year. --- Conceptually, at the extreme end of contingencies, the planning framework that emerges revolves around delayed, or at least shrinking, harvests in 2010. With that could come what? Higher prices? Almost without doubt. What else? Food controls/rationing? If the PTB are struggling hard to maintain control, perhaps a staged event of some kind that would justify seizing control of food distribution wouldn't be out of the question.
At the 'mellow end' of the scale, delayed and slightly reduced harvests with limited food price impacts, substantial flooding and some belt-tightening, but within the ability of systemic recovery is the more probable.
Still, the prudent person, already beginning the opt-out process, would spend more time developing 'out of system' food and water alternatives to ensure self-preservation. --- We continue, meantime, to catch just 'whiffs' of discussion surrounding the Gulf Stream slowing to nil. We recalled in our conversation Thursday that in the times of Tulip Mania in Holland (1634-1637), sports like skating (and speed skating) arose because Europe used to get so cold that skates on canals was a grand way to travel.
A little study of the period suggests that it's "It is generally agreed that there were three minima, beginning about 1650, about 1770, and 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming."
IPCC climate data jiggering aside, the written record from the medieval period suggests a much colder Europe and if we've just been through a planet-wide warm spell, even a reversion to the mean could be disastrous for people used to an excess of calories in North America and West in general. Study of "Global Cooling" once vehemently brand hypocrisy to Carboneers/scammers and their unquestioning followers is no longer 'thinking the unthinkable' - a favorite pastime around here. --- For now, the predictive linguistics are maybe 1/3'rd fulfilled with headlines like "Amid record cold, Feds prep more heating aid." and place like "Polk (Florida) sees another night of record cold." I suppose this means the price of screwdrivers will go up this year...
No need to mention no sunspots again, is there?
Doing A Job On Us I put this morning's Job Report second because work is nice, but eating a couple of squares a day is even nicer and more necessary than a job. That said, amidst all the talk about 'green shoots' and the 'happy talk' inside the Beltway, here's the latest 'official' word on unemployment:
As usual, the two most important numbers are not discussed in the 'mass consumption/dumb-down' press release. They leave it for aware/awakening people to figure out that there are two more reliable indicators of what's really going on.
The first of these is called the CES Birth Death Model. The theory behind this is that there are lots of jobs created that involve people going to work. Since I'm a consultant by trade, for example, somehow my employment (however irregular) has to be estimated since I'm not a discouraged worker (except when a client doesn't understand something, but let's not go there).
Today the CES report estimates that 59,000 were estimated into being in December including 18,000 new jobs in trade, transportation, and utilities although that's not nearly as mysterious as 12,000 news jobs being created in the leisure and hospitality category, unless there's been a helluva boom in ski lodge operations because with so many unemployed there's a huge increase in snow boarding? Sometimes I just don't understand...
More revealing (but I'm not sure what to make of it) is the note on the CES birth death model page that asserts the "2009 Total nonfarm over-the-month change, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)" dropped 406-thousand jobs in December.\
Aha! This loops me back to the Employment Situation report which alleges that the civilian workforce in December dropped by 661,000...with no explanation of where they went! Did they go back to Mexico? Was there a partial Rapture I missed (that'd be understandable, I suppose...) or WTF?
Assuming there really were as many people willing to work as there were in November: If these 661,000 disappeared people were to show up, that would have made the unemployment rate 10.4% and by golly, we can't have that now, can we?
Keep your eyes open: We should be seeing people [statistically] disappearing all over the place. Get it on video and send it in! Sell it to the networks! --- The second number is the number of unemployed plus the severely under-employed people. I usually call this the PhD's Flipping Burgers index because it delineates waste of human capital. In today's report we find the percentage of the workforce officially in this category is 17.1 percent which is up from 16.4 last month. (Did someone just yell "Change!"?)
If you still believe in the put-up myth of right/left politics, people on the right will no doubt be convinced the Obama administration is lying less about the jobs picture than the Bushista regime previous. And people on the left will no doubt believe the Bushistas deliberately cratered the economy when it became obvious McCain wasn't CiC material and the Obama folks have been pushing on a noodle/wet string (or whatever your favorite metaphor is at this ungodly hour) every since.
Related: This weekend's Peoplenomics.com report for subscribers will review the role of "Marketing: The Root of All Evil?" Interesting question to pose....
Sellers Remorse I see where senator Bob "Nelson: We should have waited on health care" and he tells the Fremont (Nebraska) Tribune (you'll love this...)
Fire up the laser printer quick! I need to print a "No Shit Sherlock" award. Wonder if they have people living under overpasses in Nebraska?
When The Going Gets Tough Department Been watching the headlines around a top security official and vacation time under headlines like " Source: Counterterrorism direction vacationed days after failed attack". Michael Leiter got the job as NCTC director in 2007 and was asked to stay on by the Obama administration and was in constant secure communications with the office. Hard sorting out whether this is grousing (or sniping at the Obama administration) or a bad judgment call. But the kind of hours people in that kind of position put in and the stress on families, my guess is a little from column A, a little from column B. But it sells papers, like they used to say in the print media business once upon a time.
Terror Arrests Meantime, the FBI has announced the arrest of two suspects in what's described as a conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction on U.S. soil. Apparently there was a plan being hatched for a 9/11/2009 attack.
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Coping: With 'Appy Days' - Matryoshka Comes before us the headline in the Financial Times technology pages that "Internet-enabled TV's to feature 'app stores'". The FT story they goes on to give some insight to the Consumer Electronic Show (CES in the biz) going on in Las Vegas.
What seems to be coming in a marriage of your television with a computer and services like 3D movies, social networking, news browsing, other internet-powered services and so forth.
I continue to be stunned by the foolishness of humans: Am I the only guy who has noticed that software developers seem bent on creating another level of existence - a kind of 'mirror of life' in software? What's wrong with life out here in the physical world?
If you want a really mid-expanding thought instead of your usual nap in today's session of Conference Room Follies, go read up on Matryoshka dolls...better known as nested Russian dolls.
The whole Divine Comedy of Universe comes into view when you realize that rather than improve our own consciousness at a group/human level, maybe our whole purpose in the Grand Scheme is to pass knowledge into the physical layer. Question is, is there something bigger than Universe such that Universe is just a shell app? Might there be something like:
And as software learns to write its own code to expand itself....why 'thought' may turn out to be nothing more than a transdimensional tunneling virus, huh?
Hell of a News Tip Here's one for a Washington Post or NY Times reporter to sniff around from our anonymous news tips:
Oh? Do ex's still get the daily? Wonder about exveeps, too....
The Right 'Billy Jack' Quote Yesterday I mentioned the 1971 movie Billy Jack and a pretty good quote that has (to some extent) stuck with me over the years. A reader, realizing that 61-years of accumulated spurious data has dulled my once-precise recall sent in a link to this wonderful resource at the IMDb (Internet Movie Database) which is you scroll down to about line 40 you can pick up the dialog.
Turn's out Mr. Needscoffee was trying to recall this presact quote that summarizes the deep longing of those of us who just want to sincerely try to live happily ever after...
Nor would I write a critical comment. I feel like thet battery bunny... "Still looking..." but only in a serious way for 39-years....
Down at the WuJo Ah, to the mat, where reality and woo-woo meet. The latest from the Orb Society shows up:
Yeah...interesting video, but get back to us when you can train 'em to bring coffee. One thing to be aware of if you are doing sky watching is the new NOSS satellite systems which have apparently been deployed. Sample pictures here. Part of the Naval Ocean Surveillance System, seems to piece together that the Navy has its oar in the spy game nowadays in a major way which likely explains by guys like Stan Deyo who used to have access to sea surface temperature anomalies (which might be used for EQ predictions and such) have been shut out by the Navy from real-time data.
Led Astray by GPS Department Sorry to keep coming back to this topic, but if Elaine & I can be severely misled by our GPS (and I nominally claim to know what I'm doing with electronics, LOL) here's another story on topic: "Google’s Navigation App Takes a Wrong Turn: Rich Jaroslovsky."
And it's a sad commentary on the times when "Bank thieves foiled by GPS-spiked cash." And wots this? Sony is out with a new camera which seems ideal for those picture-snappers from the Census Bureau : They're put both a GPS and compass into a new digital camera! I'm still pondering why Census needs my house coordinates, except that as a wild free-thinker, I may need to be carpet bombed some day; freedom can be only so free, don'tcha know. Hmmm....
While the "EU says Europe's 'superior' GPS system on track for 2014" I sure hope they're not using GPS to find their way to work.
How Cold is It? If you have any great/unusual description of how cold it is (aside from the witches mammary or the well-digger's hemorrhoid medicine receptacle) send 'em along. 19º outside and only 61º and likely to get even colder. --- I've got every tube-type ham radio turned on, even the linear amplifier (which sports a couple of 3-500Z's which contribute a bit of heat. OK, 140 watts to be precise: 14 amps at five volts on the filaments times two and we all know electronics is as simple as PIE [power in watts equals amps ('i') times volts ('e'). Cold P=IE at that.
Weather like this makes me appreciative of humanity's greatest advancements: Indoor plumbing and tube type radio gear and why cats and dogs get to sit on laps now and then. I may have to throw some anti-freeze in the coffee later on....high risk of brain freeze persists. Still, it's the kind of weather where you want to throw another cat on the fire....Ooops! See what I mean? --- Send your comments to george@ure.net Shop Till Your Drop Ideas: Peoplenomics This Week A Simple Tactical Trading Plan for 2010 and $1,000 Having outlined the case for P-3 to arrive in 2010, the next problem is "OK, what to do with that information?" Right. No point having a sense of the future if it is not the basis for appropriate action. So we begin this week with a discussion of my favorite topics when comes time to invest -- "casino theory" -- and an important corollary I call "index theory". By combining the two into a short "Options School" I think you'll find my personal trading plan for 2010 to be pretty interesting in the potential for even a small investor like me. So we begin by exploring 'casino theory'...
More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE
Maxa-Cookie Manager Been a while since I've updated you on how many cookies and web bugs have been removed from my main computer by the Maxa Cookie Manager from Maxa Tools: 1,602 web bugs and 54,131 cookies so far. It's amazing.
Take it for a free test drive by downloading it. To upgrade to full functionality will set you back $35 bucks, but Christmas is coming... Is your privacy worth it? Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world....so far. Given Jens and the other engineers time...
"Live on $10,000" A Year With another round of layoffs due to start later this month...a round which will start to axe many of the middle managers who have managed to avoid the HR grenades...might I suggest a preemptive tactical move? Voluntarily dropping your lifestyle back a bit, since we're all being marched down that road by either circumstances or some out-of-control-PTB types who write checks to Washington lobby and to anti-reformers in California! A good starting point, at least if you've still got $10-bucks is my e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left... Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Pass It On A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings. If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..." ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here.
Thursday, January 7, 2010 Uregent Correction Um...er....in this morning's report...
OBVIOUSLY I meant "orange"... but yeah, sometimes even a smellchecker missus thangs.
A Convenient Shock? I don't remember which of the noncorporate foreign satellite TV channels it was on when I wondered through the house enroute to a sandwich yesterday, but there was a guest on one of the channels talking about how how 'convenient it was that the plane attempt swept US attention away from climategate. yeah, funny how that's been pushed back off the front pages, isn't it? If you are only plugged in to US MainStream/me-too-media (MSM-M2M) you aren't supposed to have noticed the timing. How many times do 'incidents' have to happen at particular inflection points before it's acceptable to ask "Is there a pattern here?" Joys of FTA television - and no monthly bill besides. --- Later today we'll be treated to a report on the shocking missed clues that should have prevented the attempt Christmas day. The Obama administration's national security chief says it will be shocking. Talk is of this being 'two strikes' (the plane attempt plus the Fort Hood rampage). Not sure what's to happen on the third 'strike' attempt, but why do I get the feeling we'll find out? --- Not that al Qaeda and elements of militant Islam aren't out to ruin the west; they are. And in fact there's a report out of the UK's TimesOnline today that the recent "CIA attack was 'in revenge for al-Qaeda deaths'.
But when we step back and look at the big picture, a couple of things stand out in stark relief. The first is that the West is not any closer to finding Osama bin Laden than we were the day after 9/11. Here's a guy who is the supposed mastermind of much of America's troubles - and he's got a $50-million dollar bounty on his head - and yet the resources of the richest (at least when this all started) and brightest (as least we hope so) country on earth have been stymied by this fellow. I can't help but think that he's getting help from some other players - BIG PLAYERS - who are helping him stay one-step-ahead of efforts and that suggests to me that certain of the PowersThatBe want to keep terrorism in play. Especially since fear-mongering and global governance promotional schemes like climate change and global pandemic aren't doing too well; know what I'm saying?
We're only a month and a half from the next round of disease-fears if the predictive linguistics are right and if that stuff pops around the Winter Olympics up in Whistler, B.C. remember it will be prima facie evidence that the next 'flu outbreak' might be more aptly named an escalation in 'global bioterrorism' by rogue elements of shadow government (global supergov types) working hand-in-hand with rogue elements in globalpharma. We get to wait for that one.
Meantime, the second striking self-evident feature is that the US is getting (more corrected: has been sucked) into another manpower absorption layer of conflict in Yemen. True, the Yemeni forces are doing what they can including arrest of three suspect AQ members, but I sense the larger game as outlined previously is to so preoccupy the West with brushfire engagements around the periphery of Pakistan, that AQ/MI (Militant Islam) forces will be able to overthrow Pakistan's government and scoop up their nuclear arsenal.
Just today we see how the eastern side of Pakistan is being pressured by those forces as "2 militant killed after 22-hour standoff in India Kashmir."
The US-backed government in Pakistan and US strategic planners are not unaware of the problem. You can sense it behind headline-grabbing stories like "Pakistan calls for swift resolution of Kashmir issue" since that tense border problem sucks up resources that could be deployed elsewhere.
This Big Picture is not clearly articulated in the corpgov Western press, however, perhaps because it's so difficult to explain. It's terribly clear, however, if you look at maps. Ratchet up Iran's threat to move West into Iraq with incidents such as the recent oil well grab. Threaten both the KSA (kingdom of Saudi Arabia) to the Northt of Yemen and marching east through Oman, pressure on Pakistan's western flank. Increase pressure on the Pakistani North via Afghanistan, and on the east via Kashmir.
That's a huge perimeter to defend for the West and as noted earlier this week, deterioration of Oman's economy. The increased traffic at Oman Air doesn't seem related - the national airline has expanded its fleet and number of destinations. But efforts by Oman to increase ties with the United Arab Emirates may be.
As I hear rumors from SF groups about AQ/MI types drifting toward Pakistan, the pieces seem to fit with an upcoming uprising, although no timetable is clear - only the agenda. And that's a scary one since in the West we've been watching the increasing coziness of corporations and government develop into 'checkbook fascism'. Stands to reason that the Middle Eastern equivalent would be closer ties between corporations and religion-principled governments (not sure what that term might be). But the financial winner in this "heads we win, tails we win" scenario is corporations and their PTB masters who have worked both sides in how many wars over the longer term of history?
Banky-Panky Department: 8% of Americans "Unbanked" A buddy in the community banking arena passed this one as something you may find interesting. Our source pointed to an article in a very good monthly banking newsletter:
Yes, you can use "Banky-Panky" - a term cooked up by our Indonesian Bureau Chief B.G. --- In case you missed it - the Fed minutes out yesterday were a yawner. More review economics here, if you want to read it. A more forward-looking idea? Count homeless today and look at average credit card delinquencies and so on.
How Cool Is This? In yesterday's report I mentioned the argument advanced by a reader that doesn't make sense to one well-schooled reader with a science background:
Another reader/critic in Prague says that it's dead wrong to associate pole-flipping of the Sun with anything 2012'ish, but that lack of sunspots being linked to cold weather isn't far off:
Good point on the volcanism. Getting little to no play in the MSM is the eruption this week of yet another volcano...this one in Costa Rica...which hasn't popped off since the 1800's. I expect it would have gotten a lot more play in the media except for this headline: "Costa Rica coffee crops spared from volcano blast". As long as we have our coffee, does the nation that consumes 25% of global resources really care? We got empires to build, software to develop, new taxes to levy, and those efforts require tons of coffee... See how it all makes sense now?
With snow forecast for the Atlanta area, I wonder again...sunspots? None visible again today...and just the remnants of 1035 coming around from the backside.
Another Day, Another Ponzi? A reader tipped me off to an incredibly interesting story - which goes to a scam that may dwarf the Madoff case and is outlined in an open letter to president Obama on the CMKM Diamonds, Inc. website. The website docs allege that more than 50,000 people were bilked out of dough when they purchased more than 703-billion shares issued by then-management of the firm.
What's even more interesting, however, is that as you read through the detailed accusations, inaction of the SEC comes clearly into view along with questions about why aggressive enforcement action wasn't undertaken early.
I don't have time (since I'm a part-time reporter/full time consultant) but here's something which a good reporter should go after: Look up the alleged perps and see who was giving money (if any) to various high rollers in government. Seems to be a pattern in such cases...a few bucks here and there to those in power...and might be interesting in this one.
Meantime, it's another sad commentary on the practice of naked short selling -reports on the 'net allege more than 7-trillion shares were nakedly shorted.
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Coping: Where to Live? Where is the 'best place in the world to live'? A new poll says France, although I seem to remember gangs of rampaging immigrant youth and such burning cars and so forth a while back, and I wonder about the collective memory of humans when conducting such research. Nevertheless, the US is down to #7 and Britain is down to #25 "...behind Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Hungary..." With people like Gordon Brown in power in the UK, I shouldn't be surprised to see their position continue to deteriorate and now that president O has green-lighted legislation taxing high-end health plans I'm confident we'll be able to sink below #7 in short order.
What ever happened to the promises of televised and open debate on healthcare and what of transparency? Seems you and I aren't the only ones asking; so is CBS, but with media fracturing I'm pretty sure the WH will blow off the skeptics there, too. --- Don't know if you're old enough to remember the 1971 movie "Billy Jack" which was, to quote Wikipedia, "...the second, and highest grossing, in a series of motion pictures centering on a fictional character of the same name, played by Tom Laughlin who also directed and co-wrote the script."
As one point in the movie where use of violence is discussed, Billy Jack remarks something to the effect that he only resorts to violence because there's no place on earth where people can live without violence or the threat of violence. That scene resonated with me and I've been looking for it ever since. So far, without avail.
To be sure, living on my sailboat for 10-years was fun, but even the semi-carefree lifestyle of the liveaboard sailor is destined for the scrapheap of history. The recent activity of 'pirates' (or so they are labeled) off Somalia and elsewhere has been met with nations of the world taking it upon themselves to stop and search vessels which are far from their coastlines. A kind of international 'das papieren, bitte' for globe wandering freedom-seekers. Globalists have grabbed the oceans, in the name of 'security' of course.
While it's argued that "an innocent man has nothing to fear" I seem to recall eerily similar early claims during the dawn of the Third Reich. Humans are only as free as the least-free among us. --- Which gets me back to wondering "Where's the best place in the world to live?".
My brother in law, Panama Bates is due to come back home for a while from his recent several years of adventuring in Panama. From his descriptions of the place, it's like a whole-country patchwork of extremes of income and hence, social friction, although the land itself is good and the beaches nice. The story about how a horse fell into a local water supply and that wasn't discovered for a couple of months soured me on the place; I'm spoiled on Pacific Northwest pure water I suppose. --- Canada's a decent place, I hear. My older sister moved up there in the later 1960's (or was it early 1970's?) and hasn't moved from her beloved Edmonton ever since. Every once in a while I click over to look at Maple bay, Vancouver Island real estate driven partly by the handful of 54' sailboats of the same name and partly because Saltspring Island is my favorite of the Canadian San Juans from my sailing days. --- One of the big constraints on really opening up one's vision to considering other places to live is the current state of US tax laws, which if I understand right, means IRS will still hound you for taxes even if you leave the US for something like 10-years.
Despite that, I'm starting to make up a new 'filter' and might actually consider living 'elsewhere' - readers in Ecuador and Chile have sent us pictures and invites and I must admit to being tempted to at least visit. And with the Bush family buying all that land down around the Alta Plano, I wonder if I shouldn't maybe look in that direction, too. Our long-time reader TW who left his IT gig in Chicago to strike out in NZ seems happy as a clam, too, although remind me to ask him about the taxes, although I seem to recall that if a country has a tax-treaty with the US it's no biggie.
I enjoyed living in the Cayman Islands for a few years in the mid 80's, but more than living on the best beaches in the world, lately my thoughts run to 'self sufficiency' 'energy independence' and good natured self-reliant people.
If you find a state that's as open-minded on self medications as California (a 420 ref), as reliable and amiable as the folks here in Texas, doesn't have a state income tax (Washington, Texas & Florida for examples), and manages not to have a state sales tax (like Oregon), and is fiercely patriotic and Constitution cognizant (like Texas and Idaho) with the scenery of Washington (the state) and and the cultural diversity of LA or NYC, let me know - we'll move there.
On balance, hard to beat Texas --so far - but eyeing other places to live is like noticing a hottie of the opposite sex: May be fun to look at now & then, but that's about all once a person learns one of the Universe's major organizing principles is cost/benefit. Still, there's Escape from America Magazine...and the link to Expat Daily News.
It's there I find stories like "Sexy Calendar Girl Sparks Controversy in Belize..." Hmmm...wonder if Elaine would consider Belize? Tax haven and about 20-years behind Grand Cayman, or so I hear...
End of Texas Deer Hunting Times are about to get back to normal at the ranch as the juvenile extension of the deer hunting season comes to an end today. For another year we'll get to put away some of our heavier defensive measures and simply walk the property wearing a bulletproof vest, chest plate, and enough organ to make a whole crew of highway workers envious. Such is poaching these days...
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 Build Our Buggers & Running Rascals Ah - an especially aware reader on yon far side of pond sends us this insightful email & news tip as rumors are picking up around Fleet & Wall Streets that soon enough, there will be ratings adjustments for the UK and US bonds based on how fast governments are printing up 'money':
And while far side of the pond stalwarts are trying to figure out how to navigate the next rapids as we tumble down the river of De Nile toward Economic Falls, we notice CNN is reporting "Major Political Developments Overnight!! Democrats Dodd, Dorgan, Ritter all to Drop Out..." Cue the Hallelujah chorus!
Since FTM (*follow the money) is one of our favorite pastimes here at the ranch, I see where OpenSecrets.org shows senator Dodd as of Sept. 30 was only $600,000 in the hole with $2.2 million cash on hand in his campaign fund...and that was before any "fund-raising" over the past three months. Senator Dorgan is in an even better spot to 'take the money & don't run' position with no campaign debt and of $3.9 million of campaign cash on hand,. Remember: this is without whatever has come in since Sept.30... Did someone just whisper "Yeah...rats & sinking ships..."? --- Way I figure it, if the next session of Congress can throw all the former members of congress out of their cushy retirement plan and put them in Social Security like the rest of us where they belong, and put them in the new healthcare plan instead of the taxpayer-paid separate plan that includes top notch care at Walter Reed if needed...then maybe we'll get somewhere as a country toward genuine change... but don't hold your breath.
Politics is still light-years from the original concept of public-minder citizen legislators who serve, go home, and don't line their pockets with power & money. With checkbooks at the ready, the special interests and high rollers will still call the shots in 2010, and until interstate political campaign contributions are banned, into the foreseeable future.
Funny, when you think about it: Interstate gun sales are high regulated. Interstate political contributions are not.
Lemme ask you: Which is really more dangerous to the Republic for which we stand? Lock up ammunition? How about "Lock up lobbyists!"
Meantime, as Tyler Durden notes: "US avoids technical Default by three days..." Got some handcuffs?
Turkey Bonds Long as we're talking about gobblers: While reappraisal of US and UK bond ratings lurk (turkey bonds) there's a wry wink from Universe as Turkey's (the country) Bonds raise $2-billion at 6.85% as their debt was upgraded by Fitch last month. Pass the gravy and I'll consider a helping of those 6.85% Turkey bonds, thanks. -- Oh sure, "S&P puts Iceland on CreditWatch Negative after Icesave Veto" effectively tells the UK to bugger off, but what's the UK going to do, invade? LOL. This is just crowning comedy, don'tcha know. Pretzels with your coffee? Little early for popcorn, but this is such good theater from here in the balcony. --- But as the Late Billy used to say "But wait! There's more!" "Goldman Economist Flags Japan Risks" pops out of the WSJ site. Meantime, Barron's got a little something else out of Jim O'Neill: More of a "Take That, Pimco! Goldman’s O’Neill Dismisses U.S. Debt Woes" as overdone. --- It occurs to me that the world doesn't need terrorists to bring on global chaos. Not when we have a global landscape littered with nation-states-unto-themselves investment outfits, bond raters, and checkbook politicians about. Terrorists, bunker-busters, full-body scanners, and poverty are just trading vehicles, after all. More turkey?
Kinder, Gentler Wars Department "The NY Times headline that "Israel Army to seek legal advice during operations" confirms one of my deepest suspicions: The world has too many lawyers. --- Can you imagine a great American military man like George Patton saying "Get me legal on the line and ask them about this bridge and have them work up a liability fund contingency plan for collateral damage. While they're at it, have they finished the environmental impact statement on the Rhine operations, yet?"
True military types used have pearl-handled solutions to barriers when tasked with winning...but that's toast since Schwarzkopf was kept out of Baghdad the first time.
Think of it this way: If you were fighting a war and I had Schwarzkopf and Patton running my offensive and you had to call lawyers before each move, who would win? --- Favorite Schwarzkopf quote? “Going to war without France is like going deer hunting without your accordion.”
Like Chocolate for Buffett Sweet corporate acquisitions department: "Good night, Irene: Buffett protest blurs Kraft's Cadbury dream." Sure there's more to life than Cheez Whiz...but Cadbury may be (bad pun alert) biting off more than they can chew...
Besides, if Kraft really has a sweet tooth, Hershey (NYSE: HSY) is growing 30%+. Yeah, book value at $2.62 is light, but while this ain't a BN, people will always eat Hershey bars...'specially when they're depressed as in Depression.
Sunspots Zero, Global Cooling Redux OK, once again I trot out my "It's the Sun dammit!" banner and point out that sunspots which should be (depending on when you looked at the forecasts) up around 10-15 visible all the time this far into Solar Cycle 24. And today we have what, class? Zero - Zip - Nada - Goose Egg - Zilcho - Bupkis - yada, yada.
For the especially retarded who haven't figured out Global Warming as a financial & Carboneer scam foisted on the world by One Worlder-backed science sell-outs who doctored data to justify their agenda, a survey of a few headlines may aid your recovery: "Britain braced for heaviest snowfall in 50-years" and in Des Moines "Freezing cold? We're at 30 below normal.".
See also: "Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70-years" and the Houston Chronicle's recent op-eds "Climategate: You should be steamed".
Here's, close as I can tell, the ugly truth which science seems shy about speaking: Yes, humans are screwing up the Earth with resource stripping and screwing our way into overpopulation oblivion. So first things warm, and then they cool - way more than expected - which brings on famine and reduces population and so the cycles go. The cycles will get more and more extreme (both hot & cold) until the delicate balance comes back. And until that happens, we'll have a Gaia old time watching humans try power-tripping, profiteering, taxing, global-governing, fear-mongering, and who knows what else...but pretty much anything other than population control and sustainable living with small local governments and no expansionist religions based on global domination.
Until that happens? Cycle on.... --- Wonder if that's where the TV aliens the "Cyclons" came from? Weren't they in Battle Star Galactica or one of sci-fi's of that genre? Hmmm... --- Reader note:
Downer Market Today OK, mortgage demand is dropping because rates are going up. Sure, job cuts have slowed in the latest month in the latest Challenger data, but who had a job left? I mean besides those in government gigs...
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Coping: Can a Global Reboot Work? Got a well-reasoned email from a friend this morning that deserves wide consideration:
All of which sounds fine until I put a pencil to it: I can't figure out how to do a Global Jubilee (assume you've read Leviticus 25, v. 8-55 ) without a whole bunch of people dying from inefficiencies in the distribution systems for food and basic goods.
The problem - and it's an interesting one - is that if people could renounce debt without some actual personal cost, then why would anyone who honors their debt continue to do so?
I expect that's what went on behind the closed doors of Congress in March 2008 for that extraordinary session that hasn't been heavily leaked or kept in context. Much of the posting around the topic on the net has been proven wrong by events, but the larger issues and the problem of how to navigate through this treacherous part of history is fraught with danger, for sure. --- I keep getting an uncomfortable feeling that we're all missing something. The behaviors of the PowersThatBe do keep pointing toward some larger framework that hasn't been revealed, but while speculation continues on the 'net that it will be a pole shift/global catastrophe in 2012, or the unveiling of 'aliens', none of the answers give a complete enough framework to explain the larger context fully.
One possibility is that the Planet X theory could be in play, especially with the recent announcement that "Russia plans space project to prevent asteroid collision." Apophis in 2029 (or 2032) or later is a distinct possibility and certainly the government making some of its space pictures classified that hadn't been previously could have something to do with it.
But, on the other hand, classifying things like ocean surface temperature data off satellites would also fit with a much LARGER problem of global cooling or wildly accelerating global warming, too.
So you see the problem? As everyday Ovids we only get the smattering of 'news' coverage that might be framed this way or that. But without deeper analysis of the fit with overarching frameworks (which those in power are obviously not sharing) every day folks like us get to stumble along not privy to the knowledge of those who have jumped in front of us in line and forced (or bribed) their way to power. --- Absent clear knowledge on that 'global framework' and its being 'stress tested' so as not to be an obvious climategate sort of jiggering of data to achieve a PTB agenda (preserving the elites and their power structures) seems to me that the current stumble-on/muddle-through is about as good as it's going to get.
To my way of thinking, the most concrete of the larger frameworks is that the Sun, which should have started its Cycle 24 in earnest in 2005 seems to be doing the solar version of 'missing a period' and that ain't good.
Could a solar pole flip induce something like that one earth? Maybe. Could that leak in all kinds of killer radiation due to magnetosphere degradation? Maybe again. And that lead to disaster in 2012? Perhaps.
Until I get a better handle on the Big Framer of Context issue, global jubilee is one of those ideas that sounds good but somehow at the end of the day expecting the existing power structure to turn over its collected ill-gotten gains gracefully and peacefully? Wet dream.
But maybe the construction of a 'missing framework of larger context' is how they keep that from happening....
Planning Our Customer Service Survey It's been a while since I've done a 'customer service' survey. (Is ever now a while?) But I've been working on how to go about this and what I really want to learn. Many times I've advised clients to learn a little more about what their customers want because often businesses will be less than as successful as they could be by not going the extra step to know what the next level in their product, or service, should be. So while they think the 'next important move' will be X, the customers really want Y if than makes any sense without the coffee hitting the bloodstream yet. Think of it as a 'doctor, health thyself' kind of experience.
Done right, the objective will be to figure out how to optimize what we do around here. Millions of questions, too. Everything from the MMI (man-machine-interface) questions like "Do you like the present color scheme?" and "Do you want links to open in a new tab like now, or would you prefer them to open in the same window and use the 'back' button?" to the general flavoring kinds of questions: "Do we get too cynical?" or "Should we aim for more humor?"
I'm trying to figure out how to keep this as simple (and automatic as possible) and along the way I thought it would be interesting to look at some other kinds of site improvements like adding specialized polling for aware/cynical folks. Yeah, it's interesting when the major polling organizations ask "What is president Obama's approval rating?" but that misses the emotional concept of a questions like "Is the president acting like an idiot ( ¤ ) on Issue Z or is he acting like a bought & paid-for stooge ( ¤ ) on this issue? (No disrespect for the Office of President, this is a polling example only...)
Put differently, a 'good' general population poll is a narrow, unidirectional measurement without implied emotional pitch. The pro's try to measure disposition on a subject as one thing and intensity of emotional stance as another. I figure it might be interesting to pick a subject of the day ask people to self-poll on questions that are deliberately 'hot' in emotional terms.
If I get the data/polling software figured out, there's another thing I've been wanting to try as an experiment: I've always been curious if humans could - as a group - do any better at predicting the one week market direction than a simple dart throw. If we had 100 responses on Monday of this week that said (52/48%)_ that next week the market would be 'slightly down' from present levels, would the poll be right over time any more than my set of throwing darts?
Tuesday, January 5, 2010 Sunspots and Climate, Redux Not to keep haarping on this, BUT "Winter of 2009-2010 could be worst in 25-years" says the AccuWeather site. And once again a single sunspot over at www.spaceweather.com.
What isn't making headlines is that if you look at Sunspot Cycle projections made over the past 7-years or so (animated file here) you'll notice that "Oh, oh: We should be up in the 25-50 sunspot range if you wait for the animated graphic to cycle through. What's also evident is that the projections keep sliding back.
While the PTB and their Carboneers were trying to hoodwink the public into believing Global Warming by diddling data and excluding inconvenient readings as "cooling biased" thermometers, mountain people Peru are facing extinction from increasingly cold weather. MSNBC reported earlier that a nuclear power plant in Delaware closed down due to ice in the river. Global what? --- Here at Uretopia Ranch in East Texas this morning, we're at 23.9º and that's before the arctic blast hits the Dallas-Fort Worth area tomorrow. I assume you bought a bunch of orange juice futures in the commodity market, since prices seem likely to climb based on cold weather working its way down toward Florida. Not just oranges, strawberries look to be in trouble, too.
Not that the US is alone: Record cold is gripping India putting homeless at risk and in China, Korea, & Japan record snows.
Robert Felix's website,
"Ice Age
Now!" and and his book Not by Fire but by Ice 2nd Edition
THE most important story today is not in the headlines in the MSM (MainStreamMedia) but rather can be found on the CattleNetwork's site: "USDA Concerned With Climate Change Models’ Effect On Food Production."
And my point? Just this: If you think people can get all whipped up over religious differences in places like the Middle East, just think through what could happen to the world situation if a couple of billion people get unexpectedly hungry. What we have now is only the précis of global chaos to come, but you had that figured already, didn't you?
Renunciation of Increased Debt Worth a read: Ticked off that his credit card interested rate has been jacked up to a shade under 28%, "Ben Pavone, California Lawyer, Refuses To Pay Bank Of America Credit Card, Threatens To Sue."
To Market, To Market ...to short a fat pig then home again, home again, profits to swig. Ooops. Gold up means Dow should go up at the open, although I won't rule out a late-session reversal. Getting ready to buy my long-term put options on some overpriced swill to keep it in the piggery.... Factory orders due out in a half hour. Car and truck sale this afternoon. Notice I didn't use the plural of 'sale'?
Challenger and ADP job numbers tomorrow and the 'official fairytale' on Friday. Oh, let's make up 9.9% or 9.8% and see who bites. besides: Who will question the ruling paradigm or the Emperor's fine [statistically validated] clothes?
Follow The Oil One of our favorite axioms around here is "follow the money". But, if we can't always do that, "follow the oil" runs a close second. This morning we note that Total is getting involved in U.S. oil shale development...which has me wondering (once again) about why people in Washington would allow foreign companies to come in an exploit our resources, but I suppose people in Washington only talk about Energy Independence. Lip service for voters, but when it comes down to it, checkbooks for election funds hold more sway over us commoners, wot?.
China meantime has axed a $40-billion gas deal with Oz. Or, is this a negotiating tactic? Like the old herbalist said "Thyme will tell." (groans)
Myth of Action Love it when headlines seem at odds. On the one hand, "Few Adopt new US security measures" around air travel says the Boston Globe website. But on the other "International air travelers to US to face more stringent security checks" reassures the SJ Merc headline.
Later today, president O will get an update on the 'terror plot'. I hope he can make more sense out of what's going on than the rest of us following this affair. Truly inconvenient that folks reportedly saw the would-be bomber/bumbler get help from a sharply dressed fellow on the ground although that's quickly being disappeared from the public mind. Here...extra fluoride for you?
Myth of Action, II Al Jazeera is reporting the arrest of five al Qaeda members and the start of a massive operation against operative in their country. Being confirmed by YNetNews, too. --- A guess? I wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in the 'news visibility' of Oman as AQ trained forces make their way toward Pakistan which I speculated in yesterday's column might be their next big target since they haven't apparently been able to come up with WMD's yet. Just a dart, but heck, anymore seems like my darts are as good as roomfuls of consultants.
"Oman trade surplus falls 32 pct in 2009" says a report and the country is about to impose a 12% flat tax on all Omani incorporated companies. And their oil production was down 7.2% last year...so with Yemen next door, some refineries...well, it's on the way walking to Pakistan, you know... nothing surprises me in the sand box anymore.
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Coping: Private Information British website Divorce-Online has an interesting video here claiming that Facebook is a factor in something like 20% of divorces. Ah, the downside of social networking, eh?
Unfortunately, it's not just the dumb things that people post on their Facebook accounts, but tons of other information about individual people that leaks out all over the place in today's information turned Swiss cheese world. My son recently posted some pictures on his Facebook account that were plain old dumb - and whether a joke, or not, he hadn't thought through the everyone in the world could pop online and look.
"Are you some kind of idiot? If you ever have trouble finding a job," I told him, "Don't you think the first thing an HR expert would do is check your Facebook account?" I know I've mentioned this before, but there's an alarming trend going on here: People are not only plastering things they'd never say in public on their Facebook accounts, but seems to me that there's a huge groundswell of people losing all sense of what "Confidential" and "Personal information" means.
It's so bad that when I handed Elaine our lone cell phone (rarely used and it's a pay-by-the-minute with no contract which keeps our cell bill to about $100/year) she remarked "Oh boy, I can call you from the story and say indiscreet things and blab about our private matters!"
Zooming out, it makes me wonder if the Electronic Frontier Foundation is up against an impossible situation: Users of mass communications devices seem to have pretty much zero sense when it comes to what to say when and where. --- I probably get a dozen emails a week asking me to add this person, or that, to my Facebook friend list. And another couple wanting to add to my Linked-In account. If you're among those who have not been added to either, don't feel bad: I try to only allow people who I personally know and have had enough 'face time' with that I have a good sense about the person's character.
It's especially true when looking at one's Linked-In account, since this tends to be a much more professional services kind of network. Not the kind of place where you'd lightly add folks you haven't at least had a meal (or many, many conversations) with, since again, HR types more and more use social networking to get to the gist of what an application is 'all about'.
If you're serious about a job, I'd sure go 'wall washing' and maybe unfriending hangers-on. Social networking is fun and all, but not nearly as much fun and landing a good gig and getting three squares a day, know what I mean?
Inquiring Minds Want Department A wise (and rightly skeptical) reader had a good question Monday prompted by my tagline "Write when you get rich!" signoff:
The answer is simple: "Yes. Some shadowed what I trade, and more important: spent less than they made and bought metals a few years back." A little more specifically, I told everyone who read this site that I was buying silver in 2005 when it was between $6.94 and $7.05 an ounce. A couple of readers (just as an example) bought around $7 and sold in the high teens. Not quite a three-bagger (3X return) but close enough.
Other readers back when I was ranting about house flipping, got the point and sold out at (or just after) the top. One from Chicagoland who sold and moved to New Zealand is having the adventure of a lifetime with his family there while many of his Windy City IT pals have hung around long enough to see their jobs exported to SE Asia and for their homes to drop 30%. --- Although a popular vision that people have about investing is that it's something that needs to be done at the speed of light, laced with adrenaline and backed with a triple shot from Starbucks, I've found that my best investment decisions are the long term ones: When to marry, when to buy property, and realizing that money has been watered down by the Fed on average 3.2% per year and that fixed assets are marvelously under-rated. May help explain why when I see someone like Warren Buffett ante up for Burlington Northern I say "Aha! Another get rich slow move! I like it!"
Getting ahead is not an overnight deal; Madoff's of the world notwithstanding. It's a matter of figuring out what you can buy today that will cost more tomorrow when you need it. It's seeing that when inflation is rampant you should be borrowed to leverage the occasion to your benefit and when deflation ears its head, you should be in capital preservation positions like Treasuries and Savings Bonds. And when you're not positive about the outcome, you put one foot in each camp so that a breakout to hyperinflation will not hurt, but neither will a break to spiraling deflation.
May be hard to wrap you're head around, but if you life as close as possible in accordance with a simple "Heads I win, Tails I win" philosophy, you'll write in sooner than you think. But meantime, thanks for asking. Keep reading and pass this site on to your friends.
Opter-Outers A good catch sent in by a reader: Newsweek's recent photo section "Give Me Shelter" which looks at panic rooms, vaults, air raid, and fall-out shelters. --- It's tempting to lump people like us under the media label "survivalists" but it's not accurate. While there are some who stockpile guns and mutter about a coming 'revolution' in America, that's not my outlook. Instead, I expect what will show up will be more like massive systemic failure when some imprecise threshold is crossed when the 'N'th' person realizes that paper money is no more than a promise, that America's core manufacturing jobs have been stolen by globalist profiteers, and we've elected ourselves politicos who are running the excess consumption version of a feedlot.
Threats like global pandemics, high altitude EMP warfare, terrorist attack (false flag or otherwise) and the whole rest of what goes on haven't turned me into a survivalist. What I ask myself every morning is something a little different: How can I not play this game? I'm an opter-outer.
When the Founders drafted the Constitution (which reserve powers not otherwise delegated to the States, which is laughingly ignored in Washington) there were no special interest groups and checkbook democracy. Nowadays, there's nothing else. He who has the gold, rules. --- To my way of thinking there's a possibility as the year progresses that we will descend into a major decline in the stock market. The longer we go up, the harsher the consequences will be - no matter how hard we keep trying to push reconciliation of the books into the future with things like a massive healthcare bill that won't really kick in until 2012-2013. Conveniently timed so the folks who foisted it off on us can get elected and vested in their cushy 'special' retirement plans and such.
When that happens, you'll want to have read up on alternative economic systems like the U.X.A....the Unemployed Exchange Association which popped up in the last depression; a kind of prototype to the SOC/Self-Organizing Collectives that figure in our future according to the predictive linguistics reports out of www.halfpasthuman.com.
Oh sure, when we get there, I'm sure that such efforts of people to spontaneously organize, cloth, feed, and house themselves will be considered dangerous to the Nation and will be branded variously "survivalist", "communist", "socialist" or whatever new 'fear terms' can be attached. But the point of reading economic history is to realize that paper is just a convenient way to store future goods and services and other models have worked in hard times before.
The quicker we all figure out that the problems of Detroit, Las Vegas, and Phoenix can be solved in a cooperative manner, the better off the country will be, and the more robust the recovery. The choice seems to be between continuing the old paradigm and the Keynesian madness of spending our way rich and covering that up the modern-day WPA and CCC in a massive healthcare drive, and then covering up that with a global war to follow, or deemphasizing paper and building a more cooperative model which would threaten the existing Masters, a/k/a/ the PowersThatBe.
How come this is such a hard choice? Tariff's on cheap overseas labor in areas like IT may seem unthinkable, but I for one would like to export some of our unemployment to those countries which are getting rich off our misery. India is planning on double digit growth. The Big Lie out of Washington is 'free trade'. The well-hidden truth is that you're now bidding your labor against much cheaper pools outside our borders. Woo-hoo! Net freedom!
To see this and decide on personal actions to hedge against a predictable (non-fun) outcome of this is not 'survivalist'. It's prudence and opting out.
Monday, January 4, 2010 Santa, Gold, and P-3 The New Year is already off to a grand start - if you own a little gold since it was up about $20-bucks in the early going. But, it's probably a little early to start partying again, so let's drop back and look at the big picture with a fresh shot of java and a longer historical perspective.
There are two charts of particular interest: The first may be found at the bottom of this page and it shows in an aggregate view of an equal dollar-weighted index of the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite, what would have happened to a portfolio that was started at the market high in 2000. Oh sure, the Dow didn't peak in nominal terms until October 2007, but try to be awake enough to understand that even here, on an inflation-adjusted purchasing power basis, the Dow has never been as high as it was in goods and services terms, as it was in January of 2000.
Ooops! Your broker didn't mention that little asterisk? Oh, well...guess that's why you're off seeking the truth on your own, eh?
Another thing that may not have been explained is how the arrive of P-3 - the primary third wave down in longwave economic terms - could work out this year. Once you've eyed the chart at the bottom of this page, take a look at the Dow, which is on the verge of going into P3 down mode basis the 2007 nominal high.
Then (if you're not already considering just going back to bed for the first week of the year, read up on what my friend Robin Landry put out to colleagues in the investment community who follow his work last week and which was discussed in more detail with www.peoplenomics.com subscribers over the weekend:
Naturally, knowledge like this is useless unless you can make a few dollars trading it, so I outlined an approach to options trading that might be pretty interesting for those interested in the game of 'catch falling knives'...and the odds are so good that I may put a couple of bucks into the pot since a change to make a 10-20 times return on a speculation doesn't happen very often. (It doesn't need to if you make the right bets).
If last year's relationship is still intact, the run-up in the metals early may translate into a pretty good rally today, but what will bear special attention is the unemployment number Friday morning and then the best indicator there is of how well the economy is (and may) be doing: The Federal Reserve's Consumer Debt number comes out on Friday afternoon. Despite all my bitching and moaning about how the number should be renamed the Consumer Debt Report, the Fed continues to call it the Consumer Credit report, since banksters are creditors and of the worst sort in many cases.
As much as I like the idea of 'vote with your wallet' behind the growing movement to put money into local/community banks (see: MoveYourMoney.info) the reality is that the super-banks provide the infrastructure and besides, there's so much lobbying in Washington that no matter how big the movement toward financial sensibility, the will of the people will be over-ridden again, which is why wholesale change at the ballot box in the 2010 elections will be even more important than moving money. Most of us don't have much - if anything - left to move. But we can still vote out the culprits. You still trust electronic voting machines, right? -- Should I mention : "U.S. Treasuries Post Worst Performance Among Sovereign Markets"? OK, and if I mention that, what about the Mike Whitney piece asking "Is the Fed Juicing the Stock Market"? All sets up for P3 - Primary Three Down in 2010. Just a matter of timing it. For today, looks like rally on...at least at the open.
Meeting Notes The speech by Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Associating meeting Sunday is available to read here. Whole bunch of good charts in it,,, Example:
Climate Change Hmmm...Houston has the earliest ever snowfall a couple of weeks before Christmas, and now there 'Big Chill' is threatening the Florida orange crop and so forth. And now sign of what should be at least half a dozen sunspots here in solar cycle #24....until the sun kicks it up a notch, cool's the rule. Unless you're in the part of Australia where severe flooding is going on... draught then floods. Repeat after me: moderation.....
Shaky Earth, Changes As long as we're on 'earth changes' might as well mention that there's been some apparent recent 'locking up' of tectonic plates around the world, which reader Anthony Ring compiles from USGS data monthly and kindly shares with us:
It's a little early to be squinting at the data, but the left side is 1973 and the right side is December '09, so you can see what has been happening here lately.
"Why are you going off into such drivel, Ure?" Aha! Here's the point: When there's plate-lock at some level, the quakes that do occur might tend to be larger. This is where I wheel out the Monday 7.2 shaker down in the Solomon Islands (and a 6.1 aftershock this morning) as an example and then direct your attention to the apparent increase in Magnitude 6.0 and Above quakes like so:
No, this chart doesn't include the Solomon quake which will show up in the January data. Come back in early February for that. Here's the supposition: Counts go down, magnitudes seem to go up. Why this isn't in the mainstream press isn't clear to me, but the data (just looking at rolling tends) does seem to infer that. Yeah, I know, common sense and science have managed to distanced themselves from one another but they really should be complimentary.... --- BTW: Anthony Ring's website is www.dogstarmist.com and since he gets the predictive linguistics reports, he's got some observations down that line of thinking, too. This assumes you know what the predictive linguistics reports are and that you've popped $10-bucks to read them yourself from www.halfpasthuman.com. Or not; depends how much you want to be aware of what's yet to come this year. Where were we?
Lockdown Newark airport terminal was closed for six hours. Terrorism jitters abound. Still no word on who the 'sharply dressed man was that helped the would-be bomber last week. The Op-Ed column "The Underwear Bomber - Crushing Freedom With Phony Arab Terrorism" might be worth reading if you haven't figured out that in the larger scheme of things we're in the multi-year roll-out of 'terrorism' then 'environmental disaster' then 'alien threat' to keep us all on the great treadmill of the PTB... --- The WaPo reporting that "TSA nominee misled Congress about accessing confidential records". But come on! When we have presidents getting away with "Depends what you mean by sex..." nonsense, it is any wonder we get stories like this? Got any leftover eggnog you could share?
While "Tehran plans a major military exercise" the real story, I'm hearing through sources is that US intel is noticing how many al Qaeda types have left places like the US and Yemen and seem to be converging on Pakistan.
Why? Well, word has it that AQ hasn't been able to buy nukes so the 'new game' is likely to be to agitate and action a coup against the Pakistani government and swipe their nukes.
Not much big in the headlines so far, although plenty of stories like "Five more die in Pakistan bombings" and "Three killed in US drone attack in Pakistan's northwest" to be sure.
If what I'm hearing is correct, then AQ is done shopping and they may have Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in their sights. Over the coming weeks and months, I'll be paying a little closer attention that that theater. You & I won't be the only ones watching; China's close on this and a Xinhua story "Militancy poses great threat to Pakistan's existence: President" backs up the idea that Pakistan is the "next Iraq". Except this time there really are nukes and they really would be up for grabs if the government/military alliance there fails.
Sobering stuff. We'll have none of that here, thank you.
New Year, New Laws A pretty good summary of law changes this year in the Christian Science Monitor this weekend. --- Not mentioned: If we keep sending unemployed lawyers to Washington, and state capitols, too, is it any surprise the government keeps growing? Come elections this fall make a note: Given everything else being equal, vote for non-lawyers. When a judge claims from the bench "Ignorance of the law is no excuse!" the right answer is "Oh? How long were you in law school?" --- Best I figure it, society is approaching a tipping point where it will be more efficient to list what's permitted instead of what is illegal. Think about it: From an environmental stand point by listing "Whats Permitted" only, as government expands we would have less and less to list - instead of more and more.... Ain't it obvious? --- Any good news? Well, it's cheaper to die this year although I hope neither one of us is planning to do that... Hold it! I don't know as I like government lowering the cost of death, know what I mean? Don't want anyone to have an incentive to......where's my paranoia meds.
Promise Versus Performance I see where "Venezuela begins 2010 with electricity rationing". Kinda shoots the claims that he's a great leader made by Hugo Chavez full of holes, doesn't it? A little less face time in media and a little more on running the country and working on development would make sense to anyone else...just not this wannbe Bolivar incarnate.
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Coping: Welder Follow-up, Ham Radio Notes Despite a few people telling me I was an idiot for using a normal (15-amp rated) outlet to run my welder (see last week's report and pictures of the burnt up outlet box). Did some experimenting this weekend and discovered that although it's rated in the 12-amp range, my welder really does pull 25-amps (or so) on peaks when I'm welding dirty material. So now, with a 20-amp rated outlet in place and a note to use the grinder to clean up rusty spots first, I should have no more fires from the outlet box - not to mention a much nicer bead. Either that or I'll just use the oxy-acetylene rig next time. --- Pardon the techno-drivel here, but ham radio types will find this interesting: Had an interesting trouble-shooting problem on the electronics work bench on Sunday - the first day off I've taken in months - with Peoplenomics being posted on Saturdays this year when we have long weekends. I decided to put a classic Drake SW-4A online.
Turned the radio on at the bench to test it out (measure signal strength, check tubes since it's a glow-in-the-dark radio using vacuum tubes) and what does it do? Smokes a 470-ohm resistor in the power supply., Dang! OK, no biggie, right? Probably just the capacitors in the power supply since this is a 1967-vintage radio. But no, a few minutes with the meter and a snip of a wire off into the depths of the receive and I discover that no, the problem is further along than the power supply.
Next: Out comes the tubes, in case one has shorted in a strange way. Nope, that didn't fix it either. So the next step is measuring from the high voltage lead off the power supply to parts off yonder in the guts the radio.
After tracing everything out in the receiver front-end, I noticed that the resistance to ground was lower the closer I got to the next section in the receiver. Hmmm...close inspection of two dozen wires and components followed only to discover "What's this? A screw?"
Sure enough a screw had come loose in shipping and had managed to lodge itself firmly in the mixer section of the radio's tuned circuit/band-switching is such a way that it shorted out the high voltage section. It was nearly invisible being under half a dozen wires & components. One of those "I'll be damned...I thought I had seen everything trouble-shooting gear. But no, there's always a new one around the corner.
A careful removal of the
lodged in screw (it was tiny, just big enough to short things
out) and simple repairs to the power supply filter section
resistor and confirmation that high voltage on the radio (B+)
was right at 120 volts - it was - then a couple of squirts of DeoxIT and ProGold --- Tuning across the AM band in the wee hours this morning around 4:30 AM I was reminded of the magic of far away radio. Whether it's listening to Cuba's particular spin on world news, Radio Japan, or the Australian Broadcasting Service, there's something about a warm, glowing, tube-type radio that cold solid state gear just doesn't deliver.
Next time you can't sleep
in the middle of the night, if you have a decent basic DXing
(far away station) listening radio like the C Crane AM/FM & Shortwave radio
A 3-year old overview I wrote with more details can still be found here if you want to go further.
What's in Your Burger? "Yummy! Ammonia-Treated Pink Slime Now in Most U.S. Ground Beef " claims an article. --- Got a new dieting idea: Just collect all the stories you can like this - and the food recall stories - and put them on your fridge and pantry doors.
Flu-lerium A reader over in the Bryan / College Station area sent in a fine street level economics report, but the part of her email that was most interesting was this bit:
So if you had a pigly flu and then experienced delirium after the temp broke that might be a real interesting statistic to think about. What IF there's something more to engineered flu than just the jab-fest and profits off 'vaccines'?
Lost By GPS, Redux Now that I'm half watching for them, here's another series of 'Lost by GPS" stories as "GPS-led travel goes amiss; 3 Ore. parties rescued". Are we even sure all were in Oregon?
How High is Up Department "The World's tallest building" is opening in Dubai today. The Burj took 22-million manhours to complete. That may seem like a big number, but it's not really. Why it's only 10,576 years worth of work for one person unless you could get overtime approved. If you could average 60-hours a week it would take a mere 7,051 years to finish and with your spouse helping only 3,526 years for the two of you.
All better: Somehow it puts Monday morning surfing the web at work into better perspective, don't you think?
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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will not doubt be unpopular with those slow to recognize new
facts people, but he's been doing a good job of keeping track of
developing data that continues to call the 'global warming'
paradigm into question. Not the least of which is coverage
about
on the bandswitch & controls and the radio & alignment touch up
and the radio has been playing perfectly ever since.
($140), winter nights even with transistors instead of tube can
still be very enjoyable. Although, before spending money
on a really good radio, listen with a cheap AM radio to see if
you can hear anything. In some neighborhoods - and
especially in apartments and condo's there can be so much
electrical hash given off by things like incandescent light
dimmers, that shortwave or AM band DXing can be an exercise in
futility. ]
