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Friday January 22, 2010     07:55   CST  New here?  Visit our FAQ     

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After Market Note

Remember the part in this morning's report where I said if the market crosses Robin Landry's line in the sand at 10,200 if the market slides today?  Well, been there, done that now.  So the only question is where we go  next.  If there is a usual 'up Monday effort, then Tuesday oughta be a Lulu.  If not, and if the FDIC comes out with bad news in the Friday afternoon hangings (or press releases) then Lulu may be by Monday.

 

And as I'll point out for Peoplenomics subscribers, my little option gamble paid off OK this week with the initial stake up up 26% in two weeks - a little better than most.

 

Like Landry said when we were chatting Friday "This isn't the time to worry about the return ON your money'; it's the time to worry about the return OF your money."

 

Gold bugs denounced my inflation hedge in metals while seeming unfriendly with a deflation hedging in TreasuryDirect products, but if we get a landslide to the downside next week, remember who called it first.  A strong dollar rally could push gold back under $1,000.

 

Tim and the Door

There's a report that someday-to-be-former (just an educated guess) Treasury Secretary  Tim Geithner has done the ultimate political no-no:  Questioned his boss.  The story leaking out is that "Geithner aired concern on bank limits - sources".

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The real dots to connect here involve something of a split in the nation's most powerful financial circles.  On the one hand, I see once NY Fed boss - and graduate of 'the street' - Geithner working the paper money side of the financial sandbox.  But, on the other, I notice that "JP Morgan nears purchase of RBS Sempra" which is a huge investment in a commodities out.  $4-billion is large, to me anyways...

 

Remember the CFTC rules changes being buried I was telling you about earlier this week?  All part of what's starting to feel like the paper money crowd versus the commodity control crowd. 

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For now, both factions may not even recognize that they're starting to dance.  But with rumors from well-informed forums like Bill Murphy's GATA group & Le Metropole Cafe  that some of the key players have been active in the suppression of gold & silver prices, just to name two commodities, a very curious picture emerges:

 

What IF - and this is only an IF...later this year the paper money/paperhanger faction thinks it 'owns' the world at about the same time that the commodity faction thinks "No, we own it!"

 

What might arise from this collision of giants could be catastrophic for the economy as the paperhangers would bump up interest rates in an attempt to raise the holding costs for speculators in commodities - which in a corporate sense are competitors.  But  in response, the commodity-based faction would turn around and raise commodity prices best they could, in order to whip the paperhangers back into submission.

 

In more 'normal' times, no one faction has really been this consolidated.  But Goldman rules on the street and JPM is working commodities hard with the RBS Sempra deal. 

 

Could a squeeze leading to hyperinflation result?  It's an interesting hypothetical question especially since there's a growing risk of deflation in commercial real estate and the Fed G.19 report argues that consumer spending via credit cards is collapsing by nearly 20% annually.

 

My consigliore has pointed out that in his model (built in 1976) we f8irst get deflation (which we're in now as evidenced by housing prices) but this then swings into hyperinflation as the major players position themselves for the hyperinflation dance.

 

My expectation:  Goldman will lead the paper, while JPM will lead commodities in the coming hyperinflationary dance.

 

Oh!  About you and me?  We're the floor.

 

Reminds me to reread Bucky Fuller's Grunch of Giants which laid it all out long ago.

 

So, The Market's Down Because?

Can't tell you the name of the fellow who sent me the following analysis but it's an interesting premise to ponder:  The way this person has it figured, the market is down because of the Scott Brown victory in Massachusetts this week:

"A lesson in compounding

Whether you've swallowed the US Chamber of Commerce flavor-aide without thinking (government takeover, when the truth is about a million miles away), or you've studied the House and Senate versions of health insurance reform in depth, it seems that the stock market "gets it" what defeat of the reform effort will really do.

What it does is let the medical insurance billing machine stay on its current path. For those of us with private coverage, that means we will continue to experience the after-inflation double-digit annual cost increases (literal for those who keep the same benefits year over year, or adjusted for increase co-pays, etc) and for government programs, the increase in cost will sit, after inflation, in the mid single-digit range.

Let's put that in perspective:

60% of our medical costs flow through the private insurance system, and 40% through government programs. At 17% of GDP, that means the after inflation tax increase imposed on our economy will stay on the current trajectory. That works out to

17%*60%*10% + 17%*40%*5% as an annual real growth rate, expressed as a percentage of inflation-adjusted GDP. That's an after-inflation contribution to our national overhead of 1.054% in 2010. Assuming all income taxes will equal 8% of GDP in 2010 (a stretch if we don't have serious growth), it's as if the obstructionists just put on a 13% across-the-board increase in income taxes for this year. Next year, assuming 2011 stated personal income tax collection is flat to 2010 after inflation, the tax increase is 1.56% of GDP, or nearly 20% of the size of the income tax collection, working out to an aggregate increase of one third in just the first two years.

Left to compound merrily along, this equation doubles our national tax load in less than five years.

Nice work, dirtbags. Too bad you thought getting back in power was more important than your country and its economy.

So far this friend of mine has been a pretty even-handed Libertarian type although he/she/it often likens the republicorps with an organized crime family running an extortion racket while the democorps are less hierarchical...kind of like a loose collection of thieves, pick-pockets and shoplifters.

But it's all going to get even worse since the....

High Court Auctions America

You thought I've been kidding about living in the Checkbook Republic?  You saw where the Supremes on Thursday essentially removed all restraint on corporate buying of Washington and the Hill?

 

I rest my case.  Put the whole DC operation on eBay so we can at least watch the bidding, I say!

 

Well, not exactly, since I can't find anything in the Constitution which empowers anything other than Natural Persons to contribute anything and it's all be a hilarious scam, but if 'hilarious scams' is our cryteria (sic), we don't have enough time in this life to fix even a small fraction of them, do we?

 

Hard on Harley

(Who's writing all the double entendre's today?) Saw where Hibbly-Diblitzen was showing a bigger than expected 4th Q loss?  Well, least they don't leak oil anymore...

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As goes GE?  Q4 down by 'signs of improving'.

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Robin Landry's line in the sand: 10,200 on the Dow if the market slides today.  Won't mention which one, but one of my long-term put options was up 42.7% in yesterday's downer which was an upper in a downer...oh, you know....forget it.  'Cept this has 10X potential or more.  yee haw!  You fall, Dow...rally up the dollar....ride 'em short boy!

 

That Empty Feeling

"Empty office spaces soar in downtown" (Seattle, but could be about anywhere).  Over 21% up there.

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I always wonder when I look at companies which seem to consciously distance themselves from the people who produce the real value for them.  Take Boeing - once headquartered in Seattle which is now back in Chicago, maybe 1,730 miles from Paine Field.

 

I ask myself:  "Would the Dreamliner have been as late & overweight if the company had kept it's corporate office in the Seattle area?  Wonder what their logic was?"

 

I'd love to know whether Boeing sent more people from Seattle to Chicago when it was in Seattle than it's sending from Chicago to Seattle nowadays.  Seems like a logical question to me...I guess that's why I only consult small agile companies, eh?

 

Mud Flap

L.A. after rain and fires.  The mud no doubt aggravated by environmental rules which keep people from cutting down the brush in the canyons which in turn leaves tinder-dry more to burn next season...oh my head hurts.  Repeat after me:  Cause.  Effect.

 

Linguistics Watch

Remember how in the predictive linguistics out of HalfPastHuman.com we were supposed to see "Diaspora" pop all over the place along in here?

 

Gee, gosh, look surprised (if you can):  Here's that word in a UK Financial Times story.  The 'day after Haiti' there were 83 Google News hits on the word 'diaspora'.  Today there are 4,900+ and growing.

 

Troubles In France, Redux

Not too much about it in the MainStreamMedia in the US - at least during my early clicks today, but a report by Iran says "French police clash with youth over dead teen."

 

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Coping: What's a Better Hobby?

Been meaning to pass on just a little snip out of last week's Peoplenomics report which was really neat.  As part of a discussion about "Fight, Flight, and Diaspora" I mentioned tripping over a previously undiscovered hobby:  Railbiking.

 

You can find a whole lot of images on Google which ought to give you the basic idea:  You get a bike.  Cobble together an outrigger on one side of t'other, and then put a guide wheel on the front of the bike.  First thing you know, you've got a railbike.

 

Got an old Honda 50 dirt bike?  Even better - you have potentially a 40-50 mile an hour here-to-there ride which would get what?  50-80 MPG?

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Railbiking was still rattling around my head this morning since I have one of those 80-CC gas engine conversions off eBay that needs to be installed on a bike here - one of those 'fixin' to get to it projects).  Usually, that's how Universe tells me "ought to mention that to the general public side, don't you think?

 

It's usually accompanied by a couple of reader emails, hinting at that too.  Like this one:

"George, Appreciated your insights on escape or flight this week. Being a pilot it occurred to me when you mentioned the railroad maps, that sectional charts would be quite handy. As you know since your a pilot; it shows elevations, railroads, powerlines, and etc. Just thought you might want to mention it next time you approach this subject."

Best I can figure, the Big Hint is that I'm maybe supposed to point out hobbies that make sense and those that don't.  What's a hobby the 'makes sense"?  Railbiking.  Especially if you order something like the current and 1936 railroad maps of the USA from www.railroadmap.com.   Just find a little abandoned trackage and off you go.

 

In the event of the smelly stuff hitting the rotator, while streets and highways may be inhabited by whatever the new troubled times version of highwaymen will be, seems to me that a railroad hiking or railbiking adventure, or three, would be something to have under your belt.

 

The more general concept is "Are your hobbies reinforcing your ability to survive whatever Universe throws our way?  Fishing and boating make sense (along with having a boat in the backyard should some way out of left field event (continental subsidence) come along.  Hunting?  Perfect way to sneak up on steak-to-go.  Karate?  Never have to worry about falling prey to highwaymen or street thugs, but takes more rigorous  maintenance that, oh, say working out with the iron sights on an SKS at 100-meters.  (I got ribbed about my grouping so I'm resharpening that.).

 

Hobbies like woodwork, camping, metalworking, bike riding are all darned useful and highly adaptable skills.  Even if you think you're too old for it, a copy of the Boy Scout manual picked off eBay and maybe a copy of The Field Book are excellent.

 

Knife-making, metal casting, gardening...there's a whole range of hobbies that contribute to a personal's adaptability.  Boating, sailing, and swimming put bodies of water under your personal control.  Orienteering, geo-caching, off-road biking and such do the same with land regardless of terrain.  Foraging for things like mushrooms (with expert teaching) is a plus.  Sewing, cooking, I mean the list goes on and on.  Even reading well-researched fiction.  Clive Cussler's latest series (The Wrecker, etc.) set in the early 1900's certain adds a little interest in railroads.  When things like this pile up, I figure it's a hint about something.

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Then there are hobbies that while maybe 'fun' don't serve much business purpose.  For example, I got all whipped up at some point deciding that I really wanted to build a model of my little German sports car.  Got the model kit (took some snooping) and the right (Guards red) spray paint, and ever since, the box (and paint) has been gathering dust. 

 

This being a weekend and all, something to think about when the coffee is perking tomorrow morning:  How are you investing in your own future on the small amount of time each of us has when we're not on the gerbil-treadmill of life?  Absent plans to wind tunnel test some far-out aerodynamic ideas on a car which already has an aero factor of 6.27, damned if I can think of a reason to build the model.  Which is why it sits unbuilt with computer and gardening projects well ahead of it..  Something to think about if you own any of your own life over the weekend.

 

Real Terror: PC Moving

Every couple of years, I move from one PC to another and this year it's time to move from one box to another.  Buying a PC is a no-brainer.  You go to TigerDirect or Amazon and a very expensive click (or four) later, here comes the new super-computer.  In my case, the new box is a Systemax with 1TB of drive space, 12 GB of ram and support for four high-end (DVI/HDMI) monitors.  Under conditions of 20-years ago, this would be the Nirvana Box.  But, as anyone in the past few years has learned, it's now anything but since moving from the old PC to the new one will involve countless hours on tech support getting licenses squared away.

 

In fact, last time I migrated from one box to another, the secure Peoplenomics database ( in ACT! by Safe SW) was the most problematic.  Don't know how many calls I made to India on that...and Adobe Professional wouldn't support the box-to-box move at all.  I ended up buying a cheaper piece of software that has worked fine - at a lower price point.  Granted, without some of the bells & whistles.

 

Don't go telling me "Open Source!"  I have (and use open source, but when working on client projects, nothing beats the integration of Office and I don't know whether open source is supporting the newer .docx and .xlsx formats.  I also don't know if proprietary products (like ACT!) are supported by MY-SQL although the new Peoplenomics access portal (under construction, more on that early next week) works fine with it.

 

To try and make things easier, I bought the PC Move product from Traveling Software.  Comes with USB-to-USB cable and threatens to take some of the sting out of software moving.

 

One joy of the new Systemax super-box:  Nothing other than the basic OS installed.  No 18-gazillion crapware programs to be uninstalled and scrubbed from the registry.  No trial versions of this or that not only have to be removed (and the registry then cleaned up and re-edited, defragged and the list goes on.  Just a straight-ahead screaming fast computer.  Not even a chunk of anti-virus sample.  Just a nag screen saying something like "Don't forget to install your antivirus software..."

 

Cool.

 

The only disconcerting thing about the new box is that it is so fast it's disconcertingly fast.  Tasks that I'm used to having happen a seconds - or sometimes two - after clicking are onscreen instantly.  It's almost disconcerting because suddenly I've gone from a thought-style of thinking while waiting for the next screen to "George, aren't you done screwing around, yet? I'm waiting for a click or a file name over here!".

 

Don't know whether I need the fancy neon lighting (come with the computer, I wouldn't have spent money on it) but in terms of brute processing power it's tres cool.

 

Now, instead of spending money on full-body scanners, if we could please just take some of the terror out of software license transferring...that'd be some real 'change'.  I'll let you know how the PC Move software works.

 

Down At the Wujo:  Timewave Zero, Redux

Reader sent in this little gem to be tossed about our mental dojo on the mat where masters of reality/science face off with masters of reality/esoteric:

"Hi George,

I believe I do like charts and figures as much as you like :). I've come across McKenna's Timewave Zero theory. He cracked the code behind the I-Ching and developed a mathematical model in which time as a wave can be calculated. No surprise that this wave cease to exist at 12-21-2012. It is very clearly explained by himself: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bu6WFr61I-g 

Peter Meyer made a computer model (Fractal Time) based on this theory which draws great graphics. http://www.fractal-timewave.com/index.html 

I've been playing around with this software lately and discovered convergence between this calculated timewave and the predictions in Linguistics. Let me show you, by looking back at 2009 and then forward to 2010.

The theory in short describes how closer the graph is to zero how much more change is experienced in the universe. When the graph goes up tension is released a bit. Sharp bends indicate events.

In the 2009 graph you can clearly see that the timewave goes down to exactly: 25th October 2009 and then goes up again ("building up pressure"). In the 2009 q4 graph two specific bends are indicated that match exactly with date mentioned by yourself at Urbansurvival: 19th of December and 29th of December.

Looking to 2010 the first sharp bend is January 12th, the quake in Haiti. March 1st until May 8th we will experience lots of change, followed by the entire second half of 2010 from July 7th onwards, exactly as described in Linguistics. Tipping points on short notice will be the 24th/25th of January, thats coming Sunday/Monday, followed by 2nd/3rd of February as can clearly be seen in the graph.

To grasp the increase of change we will experience the coming year I've included a graph from 2008 until the end of 2012.

From the license agreement: "images of the timewave produced by this software may be used on websites (or in other media) only if the source is acknowledged with (at least) a link to the Fractal Time website: http://www.fractal-timewave.com . Any rights not specifically granted by the licensor are reserved. http://www.fractal-timewave.com/readme.php 

Am curious what your read on these Timewave graphs is.

Ah...here we get into a really interesting discussion.  But first, in answer to your question my reaction is "Dire, huh?"

 

I actual bought the software a while back with the intention of putting company-specific information into it - along with market information - to see if there would be anything tradable out of it.  Haven't gotten to that yet.

 

Second observation is that the chart is of what McKenna calls "Novelty" and while the technique of software spiders and massive processing of language off the internet is different than the numeric/computational outputs from the TimeWaveZero software, you'll see that in terms of our discussion this week of "The Gap" that there's a significant decline from the March 2011 high to the November 2011 low.

 

In Cliff's work, we bounce along the bottom of linguistic structures' from that March 2011 high period which gets me to thinking "You know, that 'high' in novelty may not be good novelty..."

 

And closer to today, remember I told you that the astro-economic guys like my friend Arch Crawford have star charts that point to a really ugly period developing from late July of 2010 through early 2011 and guess what?  TWZero agrees!

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The problem with a computational engine like this is that while it quantifies something I-Ching'ish, there's a lot of personal projection possible.  In other words, objectively speaking, if I put in my birth date, does the software show major incidents/development along my life-path?  Does it show the 'right ending'?  (Not going to spoil that for you, LOL).

 

But like Tarot, Astrology, I Ching and other methods of skrying (e.g. divining the future) - and let's not forget Nostradamus stoking up and staring for hours into a pot (sic) of black oil to get his visions of the future which may have been anything from stream-slipping to automatic writing - who knows, right? 

 

Point is that even a reality/science type (who runs a Wujo on the side) acknowledges that when the astrologers, Tarotists, skyers, TimeWavers and time monks all show up at the same place on the calendar, you have to sit back and go "WTF?"

 

Or (looping back to article #1 in the Coping section today) "What are you 'hobbying on" this weekend which will make you smarter/more prepared/resilient for the coming anarchy?"

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Drop by again Monday for an update here.  www.Peoplenomics.com subscribers get Saturday and Sunday content. 

 

Oh...and no railbiking on main lines...ok?  Don't want your survivors coming after us for not mentioning "DON'T BE STUPID WHEN RAILBIKING!"...besides the CSX and BN/WB folks have good legal departments.

 

Mr. Funny is back, but isn't sure if next week will be more "Funny - haha..." or just more "funny - weird" but a new week will bring that into focus.

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Send your comments to george@ure.net

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Shop Till Your Drop Department:

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"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn't, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"

 

 

 

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too.....  Click here for the index and details.

 

MyGroPonics

My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics.  It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight).  Sound interesting?  It's just $10 bucks here...

 

       

 

Pass It On

A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings.  If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them.  Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'.  Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..."

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 Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here. 

 

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Thursday January 21, 2010

Key Reversal Day?

In the pre-open on Wednesday I suggested that the Dow would drop a couple of hundred points, which it dutifully did right on schedule.  How Bank of America managed to hold just under 16½ is nothing short of levitation given their wide miss, although the 'things are getting better' discussion played well on the street.

 

So well, in fact that the market rallied a hundred back from the lows and that is set to continue at least in the opening today. 

 

However, in a discussion with Robin Landry after the close, he told me that he's looking at the 10,200 area and if the market breaks below a few critical trend lines today then he way opens for a bigger decline.  The flip side:  We could still go higher from here to the 11,260 kind of range on the Dow and maybe not that until Late March, at that.

 

Meantime, the markets will have to deal with higher unemployment numbers just out:

"In the week ending Jan. 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 482,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 446,000. The 4-week moving average was 448,250, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average of 441,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Jan. 9, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 9 was 4,599,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,617,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,750,500, a decrease of 109,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,860,250.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.412 million.

Just looking at the 200 point down day during the worst of Wednesday, I can see another 20 to 40 points of Dow upside - but maybe only briefly.  We shall see....

Reining in Banksters?  Ha!

Although "President Obama looks to limit banks' size, rein in risky business"  it could just be one of those moves which will ensure incumbents in the house in this year's election an almost unlimited supply of campaign funding.

 

"Damn , due, you aren't cynical or anything, are you?"  Well...er...maybe now that you mention it...but am I wrong?  Watch the spending reports later on this year and it oughta to become obvious that the status quo comes at a price point just like potatoes have a price; know what I mean?

 

We'll grant you that it could be argued as anything from 'legit governance' to systemic demcorp hold-up or 'staged' coach robbery...

 

Buffett and the Banksters

While reading that Warren "Buffett says he can't see rationale for Bank Levy" I was struck by his comment "Likens plan to Taxing congress."

 

Well, hold on a minute there, sage.  One of the reasons we are in the mess of things we're in now is that people don't go to Washington to serve.  Mostly they seem to go to get rich and get connected with the PTB.

 

Personally, I think a plan that would tax all members of congress so none could come back from Washington with any more money than they left their state or district with, would go a long ways toward bringing back a citizen legislature.

 

Limit congress to no more than 20% lawyers, while we're at it, too.  Here's the point The Sage missed: America is supposed to be a land of 'representative government'.  Is America 90% lawyers? Obviously not.  So why is congress near that?  Tell me again:  How are rich lawyers 'representative' of our interests, especially when they know how to 'work the law'?  Maybe this is just too damn obvious.  Hand me the ink...

 

Just Print Me Some!

I see where "Democrats propose a $1.9 trillion increase in debt limit."  Why if they'd up it to an even $2-tillion there'd be enough for you and me to throw one hell of a party, wouldn't there?

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Of course, it will never happen.  Texas has an odd law about registering as a republicorp or democorp, which is how the mindless duopoly maintains power.  They don't have a choice called "Semi-libertarian, right-thinking, fiscally responsible, rational thinker capable of independent thought, thank you", so I put down that I was a republicorp.  A hangover from when the GOP actually stood for liberal on civil rights but firm on small government and minimal foreign entanglements.  Boy, is that a whopper now, or what?

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If we want to really get America back on track, seriously (or nearly so) why not just put on a national block party and send everyone enough for brats and brewskis with neighbors?  Tofu and veggie burgers if that's your taste. 

 

Never happen, of course.  The art in politics is keeping people divided and quibbling about our differences rather than pulling us all together.  Which is why we're a conquered land occupied by the shadow government that no one elected, all done in concert with the corptocracy.

 

With Friends Like This...

Over at fxKnight.com there's a very interesting little blurb about some new CFTC rules.  Been watching this since a reader in Prague sent this:

"Executive summary: If any FOREX broker has even one American client, regardless of location or jurisdiction, it will,, effective 1 April, force the broker to apply US regulations on all of their clients, regardless of residence or citizenship.

Of course, we cannot determine how the CFTC or NFA will be able to enforce its will in a foreign court. For example, Brasil, perhaps Greece. Such cases would last longer than the time the United States has left. Like well past 2012. Try it in the Czech Republic."

Where this got particularly interesting was a reply I was cc'd on:

"The link to the CFTC proposal below no longer works - I guess they wanted it offline during the public comment period.

I have the full text available here. 

They will likely enforce by filing lawsuits in American courts against any broker found to be "not in compliance" (having US clients but not registered as a member of a US regulatory body). It is the old American way... you don't have to sue to win, rather sue and sue again to bankrupt your competition into non-existence.

Look at Michael Jackson (wild example, but somehow appropriate). He won his court case, proved his innocence. But it cost him his fortune, his ranch, his reputation, his career, and -ultimately- his life."

Not worth reading the whole proposal unless you're heavy into FX, but it really does serve to underscore how government uses process to occasionally 'make up' laws on its own.

 

I've seen this done in other areas than securities.  For example, I know a one-time college president whose institution was hounded out of existence by malicious auditing.  In came the auditors, new rules about financial aid were applied retroactively without authority.  This drove the owner to lose his school and pressed him toward personal bankruptcy.  The auditors simply ground him down until he couldn't afford to defend, even though he was right.  But right doesn't matter much to runaway government.

 

Then again, you knew that....

 

Appeasement?

Word that "Pakistan snubs US over new Taliban Offensive" strike me as a Lord Chamberlain-like appeasement move.  This is definitely NOT a good development methinks.

 

Twisted Winds

Seems a little early for tornado season, but a couple of pop-up thunderstorms down here in East Texas on Wednesday got folks attention.  "Tornado his just west of Waskom, Texas"  as the storms headed toward Louisiana last night.  Also a possible tornado in Canton Texas 50 miles north of us was reported.

 

But that's not nearly so strange and tornado warnings being up for the Santa Cruz, San Jose, and other parts of the SF Bay Area Wednesday.  Causing the LA Times to headline "Tornadoes aren't just for Kansas".  Especially in an el Nino year.

 

Terra Shakes

I suppose you've seen that "Yellowstone earthquake warm continues into third day (Wed.) and intensifies"?

 

The USGS earthquake rap sheet mentions a 4.8 in Alaska out in the Aleutians.  Why we ever did underground nuke testing at Amchitka is still one of those great mysteries of life.

 

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Coping:  When in Doubt: Work It Out

Been quite a week, this.  The untimely passing of a close neighbor, the heart surgery on my brother-in-law (in the same CICU in Tyler, Texas, BTW - which added to the stress) and lots of other issues.  But sometimes, the best answer to stressful times is just plain hard work.  Must be something passed on from father to son; my son has the same 'shoulder down and git 'e done' gene that was passed onto me as our coping mechanism for difficulty. 

 

Not everyone has it, and while I've been told it's sometimes like being able to 'turn off all feeling' it's not.  Work just happens to be a most excellent therapy.

 

Panama Bates will be back home this afternoon and come to find out (as Elaine understood  from his doctors) that the most dangerous part of having a heart stent put in is not the ticker breaking, but of having problems with the femoral artery which is the maintenance maintenance access hatch for getting tools up to the heart in vein (in a manner of speaking). 

 

I would have thought the heart itself would be, but shows, I suppose, why I don't get many calls to assist in arthroscopic cardiac operations.

 

Not that it's a surprise.  My bedside manner is patterned after government economic reports.  It seems credible when I'm speaking my piece, but upon reflection it sounds like blathering from a cranially impacted proctologist. 

---

Pappy handed down a very special bait cutting Case knife that we used for making 'plug-cut' herring for trolling for salmon on Seattle's Elliott bay back in the 1950's.  I mentioned to Elaine that Pappy's 'bait knife' might be useful at the hospital since it was Bates undergoing an operation.  About all I got from her in reply was a look of horror and then shaking her head...

 

I suppose that's why Trinity Mother Francis has one of the top-10 cardiac units in the nation.  They don't exactly get people up off the operating table and march them home the same day on stents, but 30-hours from knife to street is pretty impressive.

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Don't know if you've had any medical run-ins lately, but I've been totally impressed with how this whole field of surgical adhesives has come along.  The first doc ever mentioned it was a dermatologist who told me (responding to some 1/8th inch cracks on my fingers from extreme chapping) to just get a tube of SuperGlue and glue the cracks back together.

 

Sounds terrible, stung like a mother something, but after 5-minutes of stings-like-hell, it worked great. 

 

Mr. Funny has promised to ask Bates if the docs used surgical adhesives on him and if they did, was there any of the purple primer on the artery like we do on PVC pipe around here?  That oughta get him to pushing the pain pump button....

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My Work Therapy began yesterday with an admission to myself (and now you) that the podcast test will have to wait until next week.  This week is full.

 

All day Wednesday was spent in the bowels of the Peoplenomics server installing a better logon system which should be ready for transition in a few days.  If you're a subscriber you'll soon be able to retrieve your own lost password, get instant access (within a few minutes of signing up) rather than the Prince of Macros to run a script.

 

All without offshoring anything to India, I might add.

 

Nice thing about CGI & PHP scripting (along with MY-SQL) is that the art is to the point where while an IT director would be nice, some personal diligence can set up most anything including SQL database backups and more.

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The next big project in Work Therapy will be migrating from UrbanSurvival's current local computer, a decent Gateway dual core/32-bit/160 GB laptop to a new 1TB, 12GB, 1333 MHz frontside screamer with the i7 core, n-wireless, W-7/64 and multiple monitors. Provided I can do the transfers involved via USB and transfer software, the new monster system which will surround me with three 24" LCD monitors  with a 17" LCD TV above should resolve the occasional typo around here by making things large enough to read.

 

Coupled with new glasses in a couple of weeks and getting some folks out in a week or two to help with a couple of the extra-large projects around here, Work Therapy is proving it's value again as the best tonic there is.

 

Works especially well on computery kinds of things.  I wouldn't suggest you try it with table saws or other dangerous power tools.  But the hyper work mode has one other happy consequence:  When Elaine got back from dodging tornados coming back to the ranch from Tyler, the house was spotless, dishwasher run, shower chrome polished and more.

 

I wonder if that's why fire engines are polished up right away after a bad fire?  Put that in the ponder pile...more substantial work to do first.

 

Runs In the Family

If you haven't seen it, go read the article about John & Kay Ure.  They operate what's probably the most remote tea room in the UK and the article headline sums it up:  "Wife who went to buy Christmas turkey and got stuck in the snow returns home... a month later" in the Mail Online.

 

A little more family insight?  The Telegraph's coverage enlightens "John and Kay Ure's home in a former lighthouse keeper's cottage at Cape Wrath on the most north-westerly tip of the UK mainland sits on the edge of 900ft-high cliffs and has been cut off by the winter weather for almost a month."

 

There are times I wonder about being a Ure, living on a sailboat for 10-years, and now living "out at the end of the string" in the East Texas outback.  The UK stories are quite comforting; maybe there's a "Ure gene" that drives descendants of the Scottish McEwar clan to remote outposts and being well-stocked with survival rations.  Is this hard coded in the genetic T-6 haplotype?

 

Worries at the WuJo

Need to point out a very interesting article in Astronomy about a 'cloud of material' that has been blocking out a normally easy view of Epsilon Aurigae.

 

Maybe it's not a Planet X per se, but let me ask you this:  If it's a big cloud of 'stuff' that can block out viewing of a major star, might it have distributed mass that's extremely large?  I don't recall any studies on how thick a cloud of material would have to be in order to have the same effect as amass of a solid body.  Say, you don't think......???

 

The Gap

Since I got up early this morning, I thought it would be interesting to draw a quick sketch of how 'the gap' in the linguistic structures around 2012 has changed over the past several years.  While not perfect, hopefully this visual will help:

 

 

A number of interesting ideas about 'the gap' when (blue) linguistic structures fall to a small fraction of current levels (4-5%?) and then come back to 18% of their values out in 2015 or much later. That's structures, not bit-counts.  Some of the contenders:

"Have you heard that internet activity is down in places. In china there is a region with 'bad citizens'( a revolution). So China just turned off their internet. Biggest effect is business can't be done."

This is a really interesting possibility:  Could we be seeing information warfare breaking out and this is just what it looks like in advance?  Think about it:  What if there was some kind of revolt globally or in the U.S. against 'authority'.  Could this be what accounts for a sharp decline in 'net use?  Why sure...but the problem with that theory is it would arise mainly in model space's GlobalPop entity.  It doesn't.  It arises from the Terra Entity (meta set).  Which gets us to this idea:

"I find your discussion of the 'October 2011 - December 21, 2012' event stream very interesting! Unbeknown to most, the Mayan calendar actually ends on October 28, 2011, NOT on 12/21/2012! You *must* read this article: The risks of believing that the Mayan calendar ends December 21, 2012! I am certain it will assist you in placing "October 2011" linguistic data into context.

--"...the October 28, 2011 date is based on massive scientific evidence that the Nine Underworlds and Thirteen Heavens known from ancient Mayan sources indeed describe cosmic evolution in all of its aspects."

---"...In the years ahead we are in for a confusing mixture of seemingly conflicting developments. A critical aspect of preparation for this is the knowledge that the evidence-based Mayan calendar ends October 28, 2011, which at least gives people a benchmark for the rhythms with which things will evolve even though it will take a certain time for things to settle also after this."

Yeah, we're not unaware of Calleman's work.  While we don't endorse that view, it's certainly a uncomfortably good fit with the data.

---

Think about this: If one were to be really Machiavellian and wanted to come up with a way to  ensure  the majority of earth's population would keep working for you as a member of the PTB right up through 'the event' - if there is one - what better way than put the nominal threat date out 13-months after the real threat date?

 

But the PTB and their not-so-secret orders wouldn't do such a thing to trim down world population so they could 'own the backside' of coming events...would they?

 

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Wednesday January 20, 2010

Special Update

Crash (or big declines) Alert

Word is just out in the past few minutes that BofA posted wider than expected losses, but says credit is stabilizing.  this coupled with the Producer Price Report could combine to let a little blood flow among the bulls on Wall St. today.  Gold's down 17 which means (to my simplistic way of thinking) that the Dow could drop 150-200 today.

 

Scott Brown's Win

A no-brainer here:  Despite the personal campaigning by president Obama, Scott Brown handily won the seat formerly held by Edward Kennedy which was up for grabs in Massachusetts in Tuesday voting.  An interesting "eyes on the ground" report:

"Dear mr Ure, I love your website. I read it every day. I just wanted to drop a quick line about Scott Brown winning for Senate here in Mass. as a Republican. You know Republicans are as scarce as palm trees up here. Even the national party has abandoned them. There is essentially no Republican party structure in this state.

I did not pay attention to this special election until recently, thinking the Democrats had it in the bag.

 

This past Sunday, two days before the election, I had occasion to drive from NH to Boston by the back roads. I was shocked beyond belief to see the support for Scott Brown. A Republican! I saw Scott Brown signs everywhere, even on the smallest side roads. One yard would have two signs, and the very next might have three more. It was impossible to count all the signs supporting the Republican candidate. I would say, by contrast, that I saw about 4 signs showing support for the Democratic candidate. Even when we have elected a Republican governor occasionally I have never seen anything like it.

 

I have been listening to people talk this evening as the results come in, and they are really, really mad at the Democrats. The words 'arrogant' and 'incompetent' are echoing from the walls in every room, describing the Democrats and their candidate.

I did not realize how angry a lot of people are. This is Massachusetts, a one party state. Up until today I would have said it would be unimaginable to elect a Republican senator here. I think this is something new in my lifetime."

I expect that what's going on is that Americans of every 'political stripe' are awakening to the sham of right vs. left politics and are starting to see through the charade meant to distract people from understanding that ideals have less to do with decision-making that size of checkbook and/or persuasion group.

 

To his credit, Scott Brown is saying that the Massachusetts election was not a referendum on the Obama presidency,  but this seems to have triggered discussion that Brown may have the making of a president himself. 

 

OK, so that's a little premature, but now the question arises whether the democorps will try to slam through healthcare 'reform' before Brown's seated.  But it might all be for naught since Bill McCollum who's state attorney general in Florida says that if healthcare is passed with a 'mandatory' clause in it, he'll lead the charge to challenge it on constitutional grounds.  Apparently Bill McCollum hasn't been able to find where States ceded power to require under threat of retribution subscription to healthcare insurance, either.

 

Shakes & Quakes

A number of readers have appropriately asked "Who invited the US military to go into Haiti?  Since the UN already had a presence in country, there's starting to be a fair bit of discussion on the 'net about why we sent in military forces and maybe France is not entirely wrong.  But on the other, in order for rescue & relief (not exactly R&R, eh?) to work, there has to be security and the US knows this.  So while this debate simmers for now, SecDef Gates is sending in additional aide which will hopefully get to the people who most need it.

---

Still Rumbling:   There was a 6.1 quake this morning about 35-miles WSW of Port-au-Prince at 11:04 UTC.  No word on any additional casualties.

 

Also had a couple of minor temblors in the southern California area this morning.  3.4 up in the hills about 48 north-northeast of San Diego, and little 2.6 shaker 5 miles north of Rancho Cucamonga, California.  That was at 1:15 AM local so not many people likely felt that one.

 

Also in the Terra Entity: Still only a single sunspot - we should be around 5-10 most of the time according to earlier forecasts, so this 11.5 year cycle bottom is still looking like it's extending.

 

Producer Prices

Out from BLS this morning:

"The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods moved up 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed a 1.8-percent advance in November and a 0.3-percent increase in October. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods rose 0.5 percent and the crude goods index moved up 1.0 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods advanced 4.4 percent in 2009, after falling 0.9 percent in 2008. "

Word of the softness in producer prices is NOT a good thing.  Our odds of a double-dip depression just went to something like 100% in my view. 

 

Pretty good odds the market will give up all of yesterday's gain, too.

 

Here's why:  If there was enough inflation around, people would go back to mass consumption because of Consumer Logic:  "I might as well buy it now, rather than wait and buy it later when it will just be more expensive."

 

That logic is toast.  Reason?  Computer prices are collapsing as are almost all other electronics and plenty of other consumer goods to boot (except food & energy).  This is why the Fed's G.19 consumer debt report showed new credit card debt dropping at an annualized rate of 18% in December.

 

Now pay attention here: When consumer's don't feel like inflation is licking at their heels - or if they are feeling really unsure about their future employment, they're going to salt away a few bucks and shun debt.  What had been an incentive to spend has turned into an incentive to SAVE and oh, in case you hadn't figured it out, that's why the politics of Massachusetts changed so quickly.

 

The policy problem for the Fed and Treasury is that while the TIC flow report showed surprising interest  in US investments, as consumer logic goes to thrift & savings, the government is quickly losing its ability to 'pump' the economy into expansion.

 

the ugly little nightmare that I'm sure haunts Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner (regardless about whatever your feelings about them might be) is this:  What can we do once the interest rates get to zero?

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As I explained for Peoplenomics subscribers some time back, this is why in my personal holdings I have structured a little gold (the inflation hedge) and a little TreasuryDirect account (the deflation hedge).  I figure that if I can get through the next few years just maintaining my purchasing power we'll be doing better than 99.9% of the rest of the population with one notable class of exceptions: The PTB and their bankster minions.

 

This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, just a clear-eyed observation of a latter day Luddite who's a student of the economic long wave.  (Nice way of saying nutjob, isn't it?)

 

Bonus Time Delayed

You saw where Goldman Sachs has delayed its bonus announcement?  Say, here's a wild guess: I'd say there's a PR whiz somewhere measuring to find a really, really busy day in the news so the announcement can be disclosed in such a way as to be covered-up by larger events. 

---

Here lately seems like 'bonuses' in the financial products biz have become a kind of "entitlement program" for the well-heeled.  I often hear reports from well-connected sources that tell me how the gnomes of Greenwich bitch & moan about government programs that help poor people because they cost a little money.  Yet, curiously - or not - I haven't heard of any of the banksters who are getting bonuses, turning them down because they were made possible by government intervention which saved how many banks if not the whole world from collapse?

 

Yet the pap is the same  from the minions of the PTB:  "welfare" for genuinely poor is bad yet bonuses payable thanks to taxpayer largess are good and mine oughta be bigger.  Where are the champions of equal protection when we need them?

 

Common sense says any institution that got government dough should have no bonuses and are lucky to have jobs.  But then again, my going to Washington doesn't depend on campaign contributions from the gnomes of interstate politics, does it? 

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Me, angry?  Nope.  I keep my voter registration card carefully balanced on top of my gun oil as a reminder of priorities.

 

Patches

Microsoft has a security patch coming for IE.  Interesting stat out of the article:  Firefox has 40% browser share in the EU while MSIE is 45% of the market.

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There's a song in all this somewhere.  I hear a title like "Ode to Modular Code" or somesuch.

 

Climategate Lite

No, Himalayan glaciers are not going to 'disappear by 2035" says the head of the IPCC now.  Wonder what else will be coming out from these folks.  They still insist that the broad picture of man-made climate change is correct. 

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True enough that earth is warming, but then so are Mars and other planets.  I'm wondering what a normalized to other planets view of global warming would be?  Meantime though, the drumming continues with TV ads all over for the US government's Global Change website.

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Here, a couple of drops of fluoride in your coffee?

 

El Nino Fallout

Meantime, folks reading the FEMA National Situation Update are being updated on West Coast Weather:

"Powerful Pacific storms will continue today bringing more rain and snow into the coastal Northwest and most of California. Lower elevations in the valleys and along the coast of southern California may see another inch of rain overnight into this morning.

Flooding is possible in the mountains, especially in areas that burned during the past two years. Snowfall in the mountains will be heavy with many locations receiving up to a foot or more through this morning.

This system will spread lighter rain and snow through the Southwest and into the central and northern Rockies. Rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the Arizona valleys and up to 2 inches in the foothills. Most other areas should have under 0.50 inches. The storms today will be followed by another round of heavy precipitation on Wednesday as the system moves inland. Totals in excess of 5 inches are likely across large portions of California over the next few days."

Wonder if this will break the drought in the nation's vegetable bowl?  Kinda doubt it...

 

Africa's Religious War

Clashes near the Nigerian city of Jos have claimed at least 150 dead and many more injured as Christian and Muslim communities are facing off.  Not too  much coverage in the West, but this is potentially important since Nigerian oil is of global economic significance.

 

Reading List/Nag List

Happened to catch an interview with the authoress of "Dear Mr. Buffett: What An Investor Learns 1,269 Miles From Wall Street" yesterday.  Going on my reading list.  And I have to call my friend Howard Hill and nag him about releasing his book which gives a highly educational view of the mortgage market meltdown from an insider's view.

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: With Losing a Friend

When Elaine and I moved from the luxury (and urban conveniences) or Boca Raton to a little 13-acres hunk of land here in East Texas, we got seriously lucky.  Al and Geri Auger lived across the road from us raising rabbits and more recently goats.  Fine people - none better.

 

Al was a professional soldier and one of the originals in Special Forces.  As I understand it, he had the only SF unit back in the days of the Vietnam war that was called "the Auger unit".  Since then, SF units have been named after states.  He shared a number of insights into that conflict including the adventure of walking out of a country that the US 'wasn't in'.  Then there was recondo school and time is Saudi Arabia before going to work for a large telecommunications company and spending even more time in the KSA.

 

I interviewed him once - on the record - for a Peoplenomics.com piece (Issue #150, September 5, 2004 in the library if you're a subscriber) since he's the only person I know who had personal dealings with Osama Bin Laden.  An extract from that piece:

"G: So how did you come to know Osama bin Laden?

A: We’ll, let me give you a little bit of background. When I was in the Army (Special Forces – GU) I did a tour at the Monterey Language School where I learned to read, write, and speak Arabic. After that, I was sent to Saudi Arabia, where I did two tours in country as an advisor to the Saudi Army.

As soon as I got out of the Army, I was on a plane the next day going to work for an American telecommunications company which had a number of construction contracts in the Kingdom. I went over to Saudi Arabia and completed two contracts – in all a total of about 12-years in the Kingdom.

G: How was it that you met Osama?

A: You need to understand that the bin Laden family was very much involved in the construction business. They had contracts with the government – so when a hospital, a hotel – or even a Royal Palace was built, the bin Laden family was usually involved in the construction – they were highly regarded by the Royal family

G: Was the family what you’d call a U.S. asset?

A: No, not really – they were a Saudi operation. They didn’t do anything in the way of work for the American government that I know of.

By the way, one thing most people don’t know is that the family originally came from Yemen. They immigrated to Saudi Arabia to pursue the opportunities in the Kingdom which had a tremendous amount of construction going on at the time.

G: When was this?

A: I was there from about 1978 onward till my contracts were up.

G: So you met Osama when he was with the family business. What was his position there?

A: He was appointed director of the telecommunications group, a position for which he had no experience, or incentive to learn.

G: So who made the decisions and what was Osama doing?

A: There was a western manager, who made all the decision, and Osama would sign the purchase orders, and personnel. The manager made the decisions, and Osama signed the paperwork, although he didn’t really know the details of what was going on.

G: What was his attitude toward American’s?

A: It was one of – any non-Moslem – his attitude was that they shouldn’t be in the Kingdom, and that’s where his troubles began. He decided to openly advocate and openly criticize the Royal family for letting foreigners in. And he openly advocated the overthrow of the Royal family – and that’s what got him in trouble.

G: Wasn’t the US some how trying to get him out of the Kingdom and shuffled off to Afghanistan? That’s the impression one gets from reading some accounts..

A: It’s not so at all. He began to run afoul of the Saudi Royal family –and the U.S. didn’t have any interest in him – and at that point he was no a threat to the U.S. He was, however a threat to himself and his family because of his open hostility for allowing non-Moslems into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

G: Was this anti-American thing something that grew – I mean could you ever trace it back to a source or something that was going on in particular that rubbed him the wrong way?

A: It wasn’t just Americans. In his mind, the Americans were the biggest threat because the American military had a stronger presence in the Kingdom at that time. He decided that in order to overthrow the Royal Family he had to drive a wedge between the U.S. A. and the Saudi royals. Again, non-Moslem influence was the key – and his hostility was toward the Royal Family for allowing significant number of non-Moslems on Saudi soil.

But he realized, eventually, that the only way to separate the Americans from the Royal Family would be by overthrowing the Royal family. And he started to openly advocate overthrow– in other words a revolution or coup.

That’s when the Royal Family stepped in and gave the bin Laden family the choice: either permanent exile for Osama, or if he stayed in the Kingdom, they were going to behead him.

Osama bin Laden’s problem is that he wants to overthrow the Royal Family – and install himself as the ruler of the country – that’s his goal.

G: Osama has this image that comes through in some western and Arab press that he thinks of himself as some kind of Wahabbi holy man. Do you think that’s sincere, or is that just his game to gather support for his own power trip?

A: That’s a good question. Because I feel that he’s primarily motivated by the total isolation of the royal kingdom of Saudi Arabia. And he wants to take it over so he can lead it down the righteous path of Islam. The Royal family has made too many friends with America – and he knows that relationship is so strong, is to separate the two. And I think, he has achieved step one – he has separated the U.S. from the Royal Family.

G: So that was the agenda behind 9/11?

A: Yeah,. I really believe that because I don’t think it was any accident that most of the people involved in 9/11 were Saudi. I think the only reason they had some non-Saudi members in was to placate other members of al Qaida. Remember his # 2 in the command structure was an Egyptian, and his number three was a Jordanian. So they all wanted some input. But if Osama had his way, I think it would have been strictly a Saudi affair.

G: How dangerous is the Wahabbi sect today – And the reason I ask is we have spent in the US billions of dollars since 9/11 with a so-called war on terror – and what you’re saying is its three or four bright, well connected middle east guys with a case of sour grapes because they don’t get to control the oil money.

A: That another good one. Let me ask you a question. Which religious sect has been creating most of the problems?

G: Wahabbi?

A: No! Shi’ites. Al Sadr’s group has been creating problems since 1978. You haven’t heard of one Wahabbi being involved in Iraq – Iraq is 40% Shi’ite but the Shi’ites cause 90% of the problems in the country.

The problem is in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia – it’s all Shi’ite – and I have personally witnessed those. The main problems in the region are Shi’ite. They were behind the problems in Bahrain a few years back, behind the uprising at Mecca during the Haj before that and with many other examples besides those.

I haven’t heard any discussion of Wahabbi fomenting an attack – so why all the emphasis on Wahabbi doesn’t make sense.

G: I think it’s the perception of the western media (like me) that OBL was a Wahabbi – not a militant Shi’ite.

A: I’m not saying what Osama is, all the people causing the problem are Shi’ite. Does it matter?

G : Yes – because if the problems of Shiite – that’s a huge numerical difference between Shi’ites and a little 5% kind of group like Wahabbi.

A: Again, the Wahabbi are too insignificant – it’s the militant Shi’ites are the problem. I don’t believe that they’re being pushed by the Wahabbi – they kind of keep to themselves.

Historically you know, the Shiites have been the most belligerent and nothing has changed. The American media don’t know anything because they don’t go to the Middle East.

I heard a so-called consultant on a television station last week (2004-G) – and come to find out that he spent two weeks in the Middle East – and that was after the Lebanon bombing – and that’s an expert? Please…

G: Another thing we hear about Osama is that he has health problems. Specifically there has been a lot of talk on the internet that Osama has kidney problems and needed dialysis. From what you know, what was his health and if someone made claims that he needed regular dialysis, would you believe them?

A: No. He seemed healthy enough, but he seemed healthy enough – he never talked about his health and I talked to him on quite a few occasions. I never heard anything about his health until it appeared in the media. I have no way of knowing whether it’s true.

Once he was exiled, I had nothing to do with him, but I was in Saudi until 1995.

I’ve got my own take on this. The news media – they pick on from things from others, or they get supposed consultants that have 2 weeks and are suddenly experts. I lived there 12 years, I read, right and speak the language, I’ve read the Koran in Arabic – and I don’t consider myself to be an expert.

I’ve managed to travel to every Middle Eastern country – not once but on numerous occasions and I have friends in every country and I still communicate with many of them, I’m not in business, but we still talk and they still seek advice.

G: Given your background, what’s your take on the pros and cons about going after Iran. On the one hand, they are a Shi’ite run country – and from what you say that’s dangerous, especially given nuclear weapons, but on the other they are a sovereign state. What should we do?

A: I consider Iran to be the most dangerous of all of them,. Now, if Iran really tries to make a strong move in any direction, the whole Arab peninsula, the whole thing -Bahrain, Yemen, Saudi - they would all look to us to help them out. They’re all afraid of Iran.

G: What specifically are they afraid of…militant Shi’ites?

A: Well, they see Iranians are being ruled by the Ayatollahs and they don’t want any part of it. They want to keep what they have, even though most of those governments there don’t meet our full approval for civil rights, equal rights and all the other things we value here, but they’re happy with them.

G Let me step back a half step then and ask, given that there’s been no evidence yet of WMD’s in Iraq, did the Bush administration do the right thing there, or should we have left Saddam the dictator in place to act as a buffer - something that could be sacrificed to Iran?

A: First, I think the WMD’s will be found – in Syria. Syria is a little stink pot all of its own. If they can bury MIG’s , they can bury five tons of Sarin gas.

Iran, is again, the biggest threat – should we go after them? No, I don’t think the timing is right.

But being in Iraq at this time has accomplished two things: First, it’s been a battle ground which has forced al Qaida to focus on something other than another attack on the US or anywhere else in the world. It’s occupying the Shi’ites and keeping them busy. "

And that was from 2004.  More recently, Al shared that his sources (which were many) are now concerned that so many young radicalized Muslims are heading for Pakistan.  The fear among the real experts  (not the two-week marvels) is that radical elements will foment revolution and overthrow of any government in Pakistan friendly to the West and will attempt to seize nuclear weapons and technology.

---

Al was extremely generous in sharing knowledge, too.  Occasionally, he'd tell me "Locals gave me a hard time now and then when we first moved here about not being from Texas but I just told 'em "I got here as fast as I could..."  and that seemed to satisfy them."

 

Whether it was comparing the protein composition of goat feed, borrowing a tool that either of us didn't have (between out spares, we could probably build and plumb a whole house), or discussing the fine points of tractoring and dirt work, Auger was an absolute fountain of knowledge.  Always had a good sense of plants, especially trees, having grown up the son of a nurseryman.

---

 

Most Veteran's Days we'd get a glass of wine or tequila, or whatever and toast "Those present and those not."

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His wife Geri preceded him.  She'd passed away in late July, in a farm accident and CPR from Elaine and me wasn't enough to bring her back.

 

There may be something to that saying that the hardest period for a surviving spouse to get through is the 5-7 month window after a mate passes.  It was so in this case and both are sorely missed.

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Our deepest condolences to the Auger family, and to his colleagues of SFA 31 who helped him through these last six months, especially LTC. JJ.  We'll be sending a remembrance to the Wounded Warrior Project, as had been his wish before.

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I mentioned yesterday, that this was going to be a hard week. It's maybe a little early but "To those present and those not."   Particularly 'Sneaky Pete" Auger.  Best of the best.  Salute.

 

Around the Ranch: Fingers Crossed

I'd appreciate a kind thought over the next day or two another another retired SF fellow.  My brother-in-law, K.S. Bates goes into the hospital about noon today for a stent operation.  And as soon as he's mended well enough from that, it'll be back in for a hiatal hernia operation.  Doing too much hard work in Panama, I expect.

 

Did I mention, this is a hard week?

 

Drop by tomorrow and we'll talk more about 'the gap".

 

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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

What's Gold Saying?

If you look at the price of gold, you'll see that Friday closed around $1,129.  Oh, sure, it popped up a bit over the weekend and on Monday when US markets were closed, but I see this morning it's back down to around where Friday closed.

 

Here lately, seems like the market and gold have been moving almost lock-step.  Gold goes up means the market goes up, or gold goes down, the market seems to follow.  Given that Friday was the options expiration (Thursday was for indices) and given the hard sell off Friday and gold not going anywhere, I'd be tempted to speculate that this is not going to be a fun week for the bulls.  That may be what gold's saying.

 

Not that there's a lot to report:  Oh sure, Kraft getting Cadbury for $19.6 billion might seem like a big headline, or maybe the report that Japan  Airlines will likely file bankruptcy today and that will put pressure on the Japanese government which promised the public it would not engage in government bailouts.

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Since governments nearly never actually 'walk-their-talk' I figure a bailout of JAL by the Japanese government is a sure deal.  Why, governments worldwide have been learning (due to more fluoride in the water, maybe?) that it's perfectly fine to tell voters one thing and then go off and do whatever-the-hell it feels like.  Want another example?
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We see where inflation figures for the UK are out today and the annualized rate of inflation is (you're gonna love it) is now running north of 7.4%.  No, the stories about the economy seldom do what I do - which is take whatever the number du jour is and run it out for an annualized rate.  instead, most (purported) business writers simply rewrite government handouts which compare things with year-ago levels.  In the case of the UK that particular backward view means a 2.9% year-on-year change.

 

But such is not the role of a hard-nosed business reporter, of which there are few.  The role of a good reporter is to include the latest annual run rates so that people can get out off the freeway before they get run over by a semi truck full of change.  Not picking on  that one link in any way - it's a generalized case.

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My friend Howard Hill (www.mindonmoney.wordpress.com) who was (is) actually one of the shakers and movers in securitized debt analysis has a very good piece on how the economic is in "Destructive Oscillation" mode.  A quote, if I might...

"What some of those who worship at the altar of “free capitalism” just can’t imagine is that the system allows and encourages destructive oscillation. Thus, when the catastrophic oscillation pushes too far and the system breaks down, they desperately look for some other cause for the collapse."

Howard then goes on to lay bare the contemporary efforts to blame any of what's going on on the Community Reinvestment Act which had next to nothing to do with where we are now.  It just happened to be a dandy whipping boy for Wall Street.  And once enough reporters suffering from numeracy took up the chant a kind of 'reality bubble' arose, such that inside the bubble everyone knew the reason we were in a financial mess is that economies oscillate in a destructive manner every once in a while as Kondratiev spotted as the economic long wave in 1926, or so. 

 

Yet outside the bubble - on the stoopid side' of the television, people as recently as last week heard a national bloviater or two two blame the CRA yet again.  Ignoring tax policy that let people keep the first half-million of profits tax free on home flipping, and ignore flaky mortgage practices promoted by the Bushitas and Bushita complicit Fed, crooked mortgage outfits and all the read and instead let's blame the CRA.

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Speaking of the CRA there is a lot of CRAP out there in financial reporting and I'd suggest you 'break it down' to the simplest of questions:  "What do I need to know about the economy?"

 

Great starting point.  For most of us it's really simple:  Is inflation going to pick up, or will deflation reassert itself?    The answer is not simple - and so the mass of reporters are clueless.  The things you need are going up and the things you can get along without will be going down.  One possible exception is housing which still hasn't come down as far as it may since so many mortgage servicing companies are accepting interest-only payments since even $50 a month can technically keep a loan from going into the dreaded "non-performing" category.  That's simple enough.

 

To take economic news much further, however, risks getting down to the level of detail akin to the non-stop sports freaks debating which shoe lace is best.  I just don't see the point to it.

 

In a larger context, a story like the JAL BK today is interesting when viewed in a longwave perspective, yet how many outlets will do that.  Without that contexting, though, what's the point?  You aren't trading JAL stock, are you?

 

Food On the Other Hand...

...is one of those business of living items.  California is recalling 864,000 pounds of hamburger.  And a report out of Ireland says 50% of consumers have cut their food spending to pay for Christmas debt.

 

Street-level economic reports from readers aren't much better.  Here's one example:

"Stopping by my local SAMS Club this past week (Woodbridge, VA - DC Metro area) I had an interesting talk with a couple of the employees. All of them are a little nervous about losing their jobs. It appears that management is looking to make cuts in the workforce. SAMS has also closed ten of their outlets on the west coast. This specific store, usually packed in the afternoon / early evening, has been a ghost town for the past couple months. Yes, including the weeks of Thanksgiving and Christmas.

The Wal Mart right next door doesn't seem to be doing too much better. I've noticed that the parking lot is about half as full as it usually is, at any given time."

You know what that means, don't you?  It means the 18.5% annualized drop in revolving credit seen in the latest Fed G.19 consumer debt report isn't getting better - that's going to ripple through the economy badly and increase the odds of a second dip...

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Following some links from Rich Jones' WOKV (Jacksonville) story "Recession takes toll on Jacksonville's quality of Life" we discover the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce "Quality of Life Progress Report".  Interesting report to read if yoiu hold the thought "How does this compare to where I live?" in your head while reading it..

 

"Houston Vets going broke in college, blame government" off KHOU-TV also very much on point.  Given a choice of money or food, seems an easy choice.

 

Terra Trembles

The word that we had a moderate quake in Guatemala/ el Salvador area doesn't mean we're ready for one of the six (or so) great quakes that are in the linguistics for this year.  But it's a reminder that the earth is moving.

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A reader sent in an interesting observation.  "What if - as the earth cools due to lack of solar activity/no sunspots etc. - that the cooling of the crust means more quakes?"  Fine question, that.  Don't go looking for answers around here; what do you think this is "Geophysics To Go"?  They're down the street and work for the wild-cat oil drillers around here...

 

Otherwise Occupied

The French are griping that the US is sending so many troops to Haiti as to be looking like an occupation.  But the US say there's no police role envisioned, other than our forces have the right of self-defense.

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Millions injured, hungry, dying.  And the conversation devolves to power, doesn't it.  Nations are acting "It's all about me!"  When the reality is it's all about us.  Why is that so easily lost?

 

Isn't This Special

"Brown up by 9" - that was the headline earlier today out of Massachusetts where a special senate vote today could decide - or at least weigh - on the healthcare bill.

 

Grist for Jihadists

The report that "U.S. Military Weapons Inscribed With Secret 'Jesus' Bible Codes"  is bound to be turned into something of a marketing tool against the Crusaders by the jihadists.  When the West is specifically trying not to look like the Crusaders come back to take the Middle East, having what may be a religious reference on a gun sight is a pretty hard one to dismiss.

 

Smaller Government Wanted

So 58" of Americans want smaller government, huh?  Wonder how much it cost to find that out.  Heck, seems pretty self-evident, doesn't it.  Hasn't the beauty of America been (at least until 1964, or so) that America wasn't beset with huge government?

 

Time Out

You saw where world tourism was down 4 percent last year?  Say, you don't suppose that we're in a frigging global depression has anything to do with that, do you?

 

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Coping:  The Current Plan

One of those moments today...first thing I did this morning was head for the studio portion of the vast (palatial) UrbanSurvival office and fire off the stereo.  "I can see my lifetime piling up, I can see the days turn into nights..."  Talking Heads can be mighty soothing...

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At the macro level, there's a serious problem in the data from Cliff that's got me nervous, clock watching, and not at all pleased:   The event(stream) that people associate with December 2012 may not take that long to get here.  Could be coming along in October of 2011...and impacting over a 1-3 week kind of timeline, then bouncing along in bumps (with kind of flat plateaus to them) at a lot level until spring'ish of 2012 and then the data pretty much disappears for a year before trickling back online but at much reduced levels 2013-2014.

 

This is not to be confused with packets of data.  There's no way to sense that.  People (esp. with monkey mind active) what to assign hard numeric values, but that's not how 'squishy stuff' works.  Instead the question is how long after the 'quiet' does language return?

 

The data has pretty much always had the 'gap' out in this period ahead - from 2000 it looks like a 2012 event and a mid 2013 kind of return.  Then in 2007 it looks like the gap was moving bigger as we got closer to it, shaping to before the much ballyhooed December.  But the key things is the far side of the gap moved back significantly.

 

Then in post processing Cliff's been noodling (and understandably pretty depressed about) the 'gap' have moved closer to present (hence Oct 2011) while the far side has moved back even further, 2014-2015.

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There's no way to tear the data part for any greater number of clues.  Could be any one of a number of suspects that causes  what seems like a temporary collapse/decline and then partial recovery of humans.  Among the candidates are pole shift/axis shift (5-20º will ruin your day), could be the Middle East finally lets loose and we have a global nuclear free-for-all, or it could be that's when the food shortages kick in.  Maybe a genetic war breaks out, or possibly something completely out of left field.  Volcanic calderas in Indonesia, New Zealand, and Long Lake/Yellowstone can't be overlooked. 

 

Toss in the linguistics about 1-billion involved in diaspora by year's end in Asia and 220-million in North America  and the future doesn't look like a particularly warm &Y inviting place, (and here's the point): no matter how much paper money you have.

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A friend of mine called yesterday and asked "What if you guys are wrong?"  I told him the odds of that would go up dramatically IF we don't have another 'great quake' before mid September.  If we don't get another 'great quake' I'd become downright sanguine about things.  But the gnawing in the gut says "No, you'd be a fool to wait since as soon as any triggers happen, if will be too late..."

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Even the market structures which would seem like a no-brainer offer little solace.  Sure, my little satchel of puts I've been buying would be theoretically worth a ton of dough if the financial system is down for the count by November of this year.  But the problem is what?  That we won't have organized markets to clear positions; such is the magnitude of change ahead.

 

"Let me guess: The PTB finally get their Club of Rome goal of 500-million left?"  asked my friend.

 

Can't put a number on it, but the data has enough dead people in it to make Haiti look like a resort within two years.

 

I'm not easily depressed, and even now I don't sense it.  Instead there's a real looming sense of "Lifetime piling up" and "I can hear the people screaming..."

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I've asked Cliff six ways to Sunday the BIG question:  Can we deconvolute the data to gain any meaningful insight into what it means?  Is there any aspect of the language that changes in a meaningful way that could offer insight?  Does one language arise?  Are certain archetypes changed - like human's relation to weather, water or food?  Obvious stuff but no, the web bots don't work that way and to retool them is a monumentally large programming effort - and event then no assurance that the data would mean anything.

 

So here we sit: Lifetimes piling up.  Trying our best to live 'normal' lifetimes' amidst indications in some sketchy software and a half-shake of science that things will be making a violent change within a couple of years. 

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In terms of 'prep' I have figured out it's the little things that will 'get you' - like my glasses broke this morning.  One more thing goes on my list...more glasses.  If this morning's report seems a little different, it's because I'm doing some squinty-eyed reading and writing.  The Big Stuff is obvious, but how many pairs of glasses or how many back-ups for the contacts - or how much contact clearer to you have stockpiled?

 

Dug out the spare glasses, but they are bifocal, not tri-focal, so I have my head tilted by to look down the nose at my own work...

 

Universe has to be laughing, not matter what the 'current plan', there's always something overlooked. Or is this to remind me that bifocals will be all that's needed, since what's in store for us...let's not go there.

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A report out of Australia says a "Mega-quake building off Indonesia: study".  Hope my glasses are done by then.  With the sat-link I may still be able to write & post.

 

The "Obama Minimum"

Not to put too fine a point on my grousing about the lack of sunspots and how that could lead to global food collapse, but you did see this morning where the Sunspot number is again a big flat goose-egg?  A couple of readers have complained that I don't mention when sunspots have appeared, now and then, over the past month.

 

My 'threshold' for reporting such things is when the sunspot number gets over four or five at the same time.  That's when I'll be convinced of the virility of Cycle 24.  In the meantime, go read the commentary in the current issue of QST (the www.arrl.org ham radio magazine).  I'm not the only one who is noticing that this could be a Maunder Lite kind of event.

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Someone asked why the "Obama Minimum".  Well, I suppose you know that Edward Walter Maunder was the English dude who did a lot of early studies of sunspots, right?  He did this by simply looking up and counting. 

 

Follow me on this:  Answer me this: Who today is telling us 'things are looking up"?  O.  Now you see why I think of this as the Obama Minimum?

 

Where'd Mr. Funny Go?

All kinds of serious things going on around the periphery of experience here - illness and health concerns about loved ones.  Not to mention the conversations with Cliff...

 

So Mr. Funny is on leave this week till some of the questionmarks resolve.  He'll be back next week with new and funnier material.  Easily done - especially with the consumer confidence numbers due...  For now, Mr. Funny is dealing with Universe throwing sticks in the wheels of his bicycle...he thinks it may be training for an even bumpier road ahead.

 

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Monday, January 18, 2010

Storms to Come

Arise all Yee downtrodden and oppressed - the working class chattel of the PowersThatBe...but not too early, since for a fair number of folks - like those that bring you bills in the mail - this is a kind of Holiday in America.  Most cities won't give you a parking ticket today and the financial markets in the US are closed, so when you see things like the price of gold wobbling around a bit, I wouldn't get too worked up about it until the arbitrage crowd shows up at the office tomorrow.,..so goes the balance of life and the balances at the bank.

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The price of oil is holding about $78 today bounded by demand forecasts, currency moves, and weather in Europe and elsewhere.  But again, with US bourses closed, the global picture may swing a bit tomorrow.

 

California is bracing for a series of storms this week and later on - perhaps next week - as these weather disturbances come rolling across the country we will get the second of what linguistically will be three large storm sessions of the winter.

 

The California storm will be named Ares and could bring 3" of rain to Bakersfield.

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Around here, while weather storms are interesting, they are not nearly as tradable as the financial storms.  In this regard, now that I've waded in to my positions short certain Dow financial stocks, I'm waiting for the other shoe to start dropping.

 

Where will it be?  Not that it matters, but a Wall Street Journal post this morning throws a dart at Greece and how a default there would dwarf anything seen to date.  Bigger than Iceland, bigger than Russia, I hear.

 

My best guess is that the rally off the March lows may be in process of giving up the ghost.  The market fall Friday of a hundred points may be met with a 50-60 point bounce early in the week, but then a decline of 150 or more and from there another bounce then greater fall. 

 

It's there that we could get to an interesting inflection point.  I'll let you know if I get an update from Robin Landry - wouldn't be surprised but that he doesn't see a top forming here, too. 

 

Hand me a Kleenex

"Recession takes toll on university president pay". 

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Not sure about headline writers.  I don't see how an average increase of 2.3% in pay is a 'toll'.  Losing you ass, house, car, and living under an overpass...now that's a 'toll'.  But a 2.3% increase while Social Security is what.....ZERO WASN'T IT?.

 

Where's my Kleenex I feel a tear coming on for these poor......oh? Wait... The feeling just passed.  Skip it.

 

Airline Woes

Japan Airlines may file BK tomorrow. 

 

He Said What?

The head of the International Monetary Fund says the recovery from the global recessions is stronger than expected, but talks about worries of a double-dip if government dough and supports are pulled out too fast.  Lemme see: College presidents might believe it.  JAL employees might be a harder sell.

 

Weak Ahead

Wake me up Friday.  No markets today, Tuesday I can sleep through the Treasury TIC report.  Core PPI Wednesday might get me to wake up for a few minutes but then unemployment claims Thursday is pretty much 'missable' and except for the leading economic indicators Friday, I can see this would be the week to stay in bed. 

 

Not that there's enough on TV to watch on the thousand channel wasteland, and at some point, bedsores and going blind from reading might overtake me.  Crap...talked myself out of a week off.

 

Where the tractor key?  I'll go push some dirt around instead of going back to sleep.  Maybe go buy goat feed.  You notice silver is showing pretty good relative strength?

 

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Coping: An Inadvertent Insight

Day off for pondering around here...and if not pondering, then tractoring.  Let me share a little story with you...

 

It was a nice quiet Sunday in the office - had Peoplenomics done and I was thinking through an interesting email from a friend (MD and laser surgeon) on the implications of a scientific paper (Mitsutake, et al)  that proposed a link between the earth's Schumann resonance and blood pressure in humans, which got me wondering if there's a statistical link between Schumann resonance and blood pressure, then might there be more subtle bioenergetics effects such as a bias in financial markets, this way or that, may also be evident but uncorrelated since we don't spend time on basic science?

 

Then along came a real flash!  But before it will make sense, there's a fair bit of base knowledge you'll need to follow.

• Reports (possibly fictional) that either the Philadelphia Experiment or the purported Montauk Project had either (depending on account) opened some kind of a 'dimensional portal' or had accessed some 'other dimension' and in the case of Montauk, supposedly 'entities' of some sort had arrived at the north end of Long Island (NY) in this manner.  [I idly wondered how many went to work on Wall street, but that's neither here nor there for now...]

• The common elements of both are the possible presence of high powered microwave energy Montauk for sure as it was a radar/missile site and the Eldridge in the case of Philadelphia would likely have had a long-range radar turned on during the time of it's purported disappearance & the famous 'green mist' phenomena that lept through time barriers while it was testing a large degaussing system that might make ships impervious to very often fatal magnetically triggered mines. 

• In the Philadelphia case, that leads us to magnets and microwaves, and in the purported case of Montauk, to colliding microwaves as one video account I had seen a numbers of years back (sent to me by a friend at a Washington DC scientific think tank) had an especially interesting interview where one of the supposed 'time workers' involved explained in some detail that what made the Montauk Project 'work' was that set up in just a certain way, colliding and properly modulated microwave energy could morph reality of/experienced-by a test human sitting in a chair - and stories have circulated around the net that aliens were somehow involved in the gifting of this chair to humans in some kind of trade....which goes off into the weeds & noise of probable disinfo.

• So while pondering Schumann and the markets, I somehow happened to stumble into this paper "Echo removal by discrete generalized linear filtering" which came out of MIT about the time I was up in Alaska in my youth as a whiz-kid RCA microwave on-site tech rep.

• The reason that paper 'grabbed me' was the concept of using information contained in a radio channel signal to 'deconvolute' it - extra echoes from it.  If you had been working with Lenkurt 46A MUX gear (like I was doing up in Alaska) you would have a fair sense of echo kinds of problems on multiplex microwave data and here was a possible method for its removal....MUX gear was just beginning the transition from Frequency Division Multiple (FDM) to time division multiplex (TDM).  I was always partial to the "L" plan MUX gear wince is was similar in structure to single sideband, resulting in what can be thought of as 'stacked single sideband signals' in a baseband output which could them be FM modulated and tore back down to the channel level at the other end of a microwave shot.  Hey!  Dozed off, yet?

• It was specifically while noodling whether deconvolution techniques int he discrete generalized filter paper could increase the accuracy of the predictive linguistics project that I got to this weird insight....

 

OK, we now join present day in process where we find George tossing the following around:.

 

You know how extremely low electrical frequencies have a 'duality' to them?  In other words, frequencies between about 20 Hertz (cycles to per second to folks of my era, but that's far to self-explanatory and had to be thrown out for God knows what legit reasons) and 20 Kilohertz (20,000 cycles per second) may be expressed in physical reality in one of two ways:  One way is as an electromagnetic wave.  This very low (and ultra low) radio signals that are down in the same area as humans can hear when translated to air movement are the basis for underwater communication with submarines and such.  An impressive example would be the Navy's Jim Creek installation up near Darrington in Washington State.

 

When a wire shaped as a coil is 'pumped' with this low frequency energy, and with that coil in a strong magnetic field, movement is induced.  That's what  moves the speakers in your car stereo - coils of wires in magnets.

 

So here was the 'flash':  You know that light has this dualistic property, right?  Under some conditions energy at that frequency can appear in photon (particle form)  or it can appear as a wave.

 

So my head is fixated today on this simple thought:  If sound can be 'manifested' by pulsing a wire in a magnetic field (to move a speaker cone), then is it just possible that what we experience as 'visual reality' is nothing more than what happens when consciousness is being similarly 'pumped' by photon particles that hit the rods and cones in our eyes?

 

Would it not follow, then, that we might be able to do some pumping of a magnetic nature to create different experiences of reality around us, just as our ears modify our experience of natural sounds?

 

If so, could a series of wave structures then provide for multiple realities to exist concurrently and would this not also explain why people doing hallucinogenic drugs report the kinds of visual experiences they do including 'other-earthly' intelligent (but not necessarily 'nice') forms like the Archons and various other entities sometimes described as 'demons'?  Would this explain why 'little people' and phenomena like Yeti/Bigfoot are only occasionally seen?

 

I'm just tossing this out as a 'what if" but suppose for a moment that light can be separated into two components: the wave and the particle...and suppose that waves only could be created...how would we do that?

 

Well, obviously, one way would be to use the principle of 'heterodyning'. 

 

This point takes a little explaining, but in a car radio (for example) when you listen to a radio station on 1000 Khz, inside your radio there is a local oscillator that 'beats' against the radio signal and brings it down to something called an 'intermediate frequency' (typically 455 kilohertz for an AM radio, or 10.7 MHz for an FM radio) where it is amplified and then detected.

 

The key is something called a 'mixer' which produces both the sum and difference of the signal and one of these is them amplified.  The wiki entry on superheterodyne receivers explains the process in more detail.

 

My question that's rattling around this morning is this:  Is there some way to mix (sum) microwave frequencies such that energy at the frequency of light could be generated (wave function only with no photonic component) such that the waves could be manipulated (using various modulation techniques) in order to pierce some generally unperceived veil of reality which is imposed by photonic noise overriding our direct access to the wave function?

 

Cliff's often mentioned that in the Vedic (or was it Jain?) traditions there are these critters called 'the kalapas' which pop reality into existence something on the order of trillions of times per second.  That would essentially turn mastering reality into little more than figuring out the most efficient time domain multiplexing strategy to 'tune' other realities channels.

 

Recall that using frequency modulation techniques that the upper limit of frequency response can be thought of as pretty much unlimited.  I assume you remember that as the modulation frequency of AM is increased, the bandwidth of the signal spread out some much as it make it useless?

 

So here's the point:  We are already finding some unique properties of terahertz radiation that may let us 'see through things' in whole body scanners and such.

 

Suppose we were to modulate colliding terahertz waves in heterodyne fashion.  Or, collide microwaves in a strong magnetic field to 'translate them into something different'...Do we then get to the point where we can directly manipulate the templates of the kalapas which form reality as those ancient Vedic (Jain?) texts suggest?  Is there some 'master frequency involved...and does this explain our human affinity for music?  Moreover, does music have some modulating feature that works on reality creation  (the stuff play emotions, right?) and is that why some meditations use the "Auuuuummmmm!" sound?  Is that a kind of 'local oscillator for the brain" that lets the practitioner use the brain for something akin to super heterodyne receiver tuning?

 

And what if the religious phrase "I am the Light" turns out to be really incomplete?  How so? Because the word 'frequency' would not make linguistic sense in the pre-electric age.  What if the real quote meant to be passed along meant something like "I am [the frequency of] Light"?

 

Maybe the truth is absurdly simple and we're just all really, really dense.  Or maybe it's just me.

 

Meanwhile, Down at the WuJo: C2C Going Mainstream, 2

I think I've mentioned at least a couple of times about national late-night/overnight radio show Coast to Coast AM becoming the new 'mainstream' as younger people catch on to all is not-as-it-appears here in the checkbook republic. 

 

Two things caught my ear during last nights show hosted by George Knapp:  One is that the Washington Times is now advertising  email-delivery of the online version of their newspaper.  Thought that was pretty impressive that someone is waking up to C2C's new role as a mainstream leader - not follower.

 

The other thing was the interview with Janis Sharp, mom of Gary McKinnon who you may remember is due in court this coming week to face extradition to the US on charges of doing a billion dollars worth of damage in what's called the 'biggest hacking operation in US military history."

 

Except for one thing:  McKinnon by all civilian accounts is not a terrorist but what he seems to have uncovered is something even scarier than terrorism:  The truth about the US's secret off-budget space program including all kinds of info that the government doesn't want out.

 

Far out as this may sound, one of George Knapp's call-in guests (didn't catch his name or website but if you did pass it along) was a former NASA worker who was 'up there' in the space program and who apparently has a website that  'outs' more about the "Secret Space Program" including the purported involvement of 8 & 9-foot tall 'giants' which are somehow involved in this secret/unauthorized program. 

 

Knapp - like CD2C's main host George Noory - is a great interviewer - and he may have this fellow on the show in the future  but here's the main series of dots to connect:  Six years ago Gary McKinnon apparently found information that caused the US demanding his extradition to the USA so we can lock him up for 70+ years and since he's now 42, that would be tantamount to a die-in-jail move.  And - at the same time - we're hearing persistent reports a 'secret space program - and I assume you've seen the YouTube videos about purported secret "Starfleet" operations that are ongoing.

 

Another Media Note

Billionaire Carols Slim from Mexico who has a big stake in such things is pushing the NY Times to end free online access to articles.

 

Hazardous Hamming

A fellow who knows I follow the sport of ham radio sent in an interesting note about ham radio relief work in Haiti:

"George,

It seems that Haiti is getting worse. A group of Ham Operators from Radio Club Dominicano on Sunday tried to go to Haiti's capital to set up equipment to aid communications but had to leave because the area is so unsafe. One person in their party is dead after their convoy was fired upon. Everyone is now back in Santo Domingo. They did get some equipment up and running.

I have read that a prison or prisons has been compromised and all of the inmates have escaped after burning all of the prisons records showing their crimes. They have taken guns from the prison and now appear to be on the rampage on the streets. I guess they could also get them at a police station too if they collapsed and the officers were killed.

I also read where a medical hospital sent in by Israel have assisted a woman giving birth to a baby boy. The mother was so thrilled so decided to name him "ISRAEL". Pretty cool to say the least.

I found this out at http://www.ham.dmz.ro  and Hampedia.net "

Might want to tune through 14.265 (USB) and maybe 7.265 (LSB) to see if there's any ham traffic coming out on HF...wouldn't expect much though, based on street level conditions which are grim.

 

The Trouble With Average People

Interesting email from a reader who is obviously conscious and alert...unlike folks around here:

"Hello George,

There seem to be so many people that are just not paying attention to anything that is going on in the world and the hardest part is having family members just look at you like your crazy. This is actually quite depressing. My husband and I watch the news and peruse the internet daily to keep watch on things like the fake wars, financial situation, solar activity etc. I don’t take anything at 100% and evaluate all of the information so that I can form a clearer picture of what the future might hold in store for all of us as human beings.

Two of my sisters stopped by for a visit yesterday and after they left I spent the rest of the day agitated and upset by their lack of interest in anything that is going on in the world today. I think that they must figure that bailing out financial institutions doesn’t have an impact on them so why bother wasting their time with it. This is just one example of how they have chosen to live their lives. If something isn’t directly impacting them today (regardless if they realize that it actually is), no matter what the situation, then it’s not worth their time to evaluate. I happened to mention to them that one of the analysts I work with is from Port au Prince. They both looked at each other and laughed and then said, “What’s that?” I was shocked to say the least. I told them that they really are not informed at all and they just looked at me with the deer in the headlight stare. Apparently they knew about the earth quake but didn’t know what, who or where Port au Prince was. They said, “Why didn’t you just say Haiti?” Let me clarify that my sisters are not illiterate people by any means but they live in their own little worlds it would appear.

I had a flood in the basement this year and our next door neighbor let us borrow their clean air machine which helped immensely with the mold and allergens that were in the air. We returned the machine the other day and actually spent about an hour talking with them about preparedness and found that they too are watching all that is happening in the world and have more food stores ready then we do. They have their bug out buckets by their door and are ready to bail out in a minutes’ notice if need be. We started talking about the show on the history channel (Earth 2100) and how people banded together to help grow food and basically apply whatever skill set each person had to better help their group survive. Our neighbor said she thought about going through the neighborhood to talk with people to find out which ones were actually paying attention to what is going on in the world and find out just how many of them were prepared. I told her that it would be interesting but I can’t help but feel she is just going to run into a majority of people that are just like my sisters.

If my neighbor does go around to take a poll of the neighborhood, I will let you know how it turns out. She wanted to basically find out how many are prepared and what skill sets the people in the area have. I honestly don’t think she will get very far with this and if she does get some of the people to answer, I doubt very much that they are prepared at all. My preference would be to move into a rural location, far away from these people because when the shit hits the fan, it will be those people that you will have to watch out for.

...which is why Peoplenomics this week is on Fight, Flight, and Diaspora.

Dreamland

Oh, here's one...

"I had a dream the other night. I'm no scientist - the dream had to do with the Earth's crust shrinking ever so slightly due to less heat coming from the sun because of the lack of sunspots. As the crust contracts more pressure is put upon our 6,000F core causing the plates (increase in large earthquakes) to shift, as a byproduct an increase in volcanism. The icecaps also melt due to contraction of the crust increasing the heat coming from the core. Maybe 2012 will be the culmination of the Earth changes when the galactic alignment occurs. Just a thought.

Interesting dream, although I'm not sure I'd be thinking 2012.  Best read of the data says the first huge whump comes along in October of 2011 then bumps along before linguistic structures mostly disappear in in March/April 2012.  Won't bore you with the details, but if we do get the six great quakes this year, then it will be very important to act on, not that it will matter.  Seems our fate's sealed before we're born...multiplexed terahertz wavefronts modifying kalapas templates in a highly magnetic space aside, that is.

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