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First Temblor in 'Great Quake' Series

I don't usually get up in the dark of the night to post updates, but these are exceptional times.  Remember earlier this year (see Google's cache of the page) where I went into some details about what was expected this year with "Six Great Quakes to Come"?

 

Well #1 has shown up with an 8.8 magnitude quake in Chile.  Here's the USGS notification:

                    

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==

 

***This event has been revised.

 

Region:                            OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE

Geographic coordinates:            35.846S,  72.718W

Magnitude:                        8.8 Mw

Depth:                            35 km

Universal Time (UTC):             27 Feb 2010  06:34:14

Time near the Epicenter:          27 Feb 2010  03:34:14

Local standard time in your area: 27 Feb 2010  06:34:14

 

Location with respect to nearby cities:

 104 km (65 miles) WSW (246 degrees) of Talca, Chile

 114 km (71 miles) NNE (15 degrees) of Concepcion, Chile

 321 km (200 miles) SW (215 degrees) of SANTIAGO, Chile

 

Initial reports had place the quake at "only" an 8.3.

 

In my previous discussion of the 'great quakes' part of the data, I had suggested that what would be coming over the balance of 2010 had the potential to make 'Haiti look like a warm up act'.  Sadly, given the population of Concepcion Chile, just 75 miles from the epicenter, this could prove an accurate forecast.  We'll just have to wait for reports to start filtering out of the area and that could take some time since there has apparently been some damage to communications & power in the region.  Power outages were reported in Santiago which is 200-miles out from the epicenter.  There, a Chinese reporter is quoted:

"A Xinhua reporter said that when the quake struck, he felt his house shaking and heard a squeaky sound for nearly 40 seconds. Shortly after that, electricity was disrupted and everything fell into darkness."

Mind you, this is 200 miles from the epicenter.  Damage will undoubtedly be higher in Concepcion which is only 75-miles from the epicenter and home to more than a million people in the region.

 

Notably, this comes within close temporal proximity to the 7.0 quake in the southern islands of Japan which caused tsunami concerns just 10-hours earlier.

 

More top the point, the Chile quake is on par with the Boxing Day quake and tsunami of 2004 which was a 9 on the Richter Scale.

 

Our apologies for the general nature of the six great quakes forecast, but it's quite difficult to discern much more (beyond 'more to come') since when a great quake happens near a tsunami-warning size quake like Japan it becomes lingustically difficult to achieve high resolution on individual events. 

 

Still, as a precaution, residents of the US West Coast have hopefully put a little thought and planning into quake kits and water, since both SoCal and the Pacific Northwest/Vancouver Island regions may be at elevated risk this year.

 

What's bothering me now is that the 'great quakes' didn't previously look like they would start until sometime around/after July 7/8...which leaves the intriguing question "Has the timeline changed?"  Are we one down and five to go?

 

The future's somewhat malleable stuff and it's 'drifty' in the sense that it can be one date-range looked at one moment and shift the next. 

 

More for www.peoplenomics.com subscribers when we get a few hours of sleep.

 

Odd Haps at the WuJo Update

A First-Hand Hyper-Chroniac Report

Yeah, OK, who cares if the Dow opens down a couple of points - not at all as important as our second 'hyper-chroniac" report.

 

Just got an amazing email from a reader who has what seems like a legit hyper-chroniac experience.  Remember from the predictive linguistics work how this kind of thing (odd encounters in time) was supposed to be picking up along with a sense of "surreal"?  Check this report:

"I'm writing you because I wanted to tell you about one of the strangest things I've ever had happen to me just happen. First, a little background. I'm a Masters student at **** University in *****, Alabama in Industrial Systems Engineering. I came across your blog about a year and a half ago while doing a little research on some obscure statistical analysis of seemingly random events. I ended up studying the Web Bot's data and the theory behind their claims, which led me to your page. I read it from time to time and saw some of your stuff about strange things happening to people in regards to time-space. I didn't think much of it, but found it an interesting read because I'm very well versed in statistics, physics and quantum theory. While the Web Bot theory holds more water than fluxes in space-time manifesting themselves in this time line and not causing massive disruptions like massive energy transfer or release, it was still something to ponder. However, I leave that stuff to the physicists.

Anyway, tonight I was leaving the office around 11:45 pm CST. I have been working late and sleeping late, so I woke up today around 3 pm, thus I'm still pretty sharp and alert right now, so I don't believe this to be my mind playing tricks on me. I was driving down a two lane road, and pulled out of a gas station and got behind an old red El Dorido (sp?) which was going about 10 under the speed limit and seemed strangely out of place considering the area. The speed limit was 25 on this particular road. Since this is a small town there aren't many cars on the road right now, and this driver was going so slow I was paying close attention to him/her and was getting a little irritated. Furthermore, the tail lights on this car appeared to be illegal, being that they were almost under the bumper and very dim. I was thinking to myself that this person was going to get pulled over for driving suspicious and their tail lights being as they were. From the time I got behind this car till I reached my house was about 3 minutes or a mile along this well lit road. As we got about half way to my turn we passed through an intersection and just beyond this is a bump in the road from recent road work. Still being behind this car and still paying attention to it we passed over the bump something I cannot really describe happened... I drive an F-150 which has a stiff suspension, so it jarred my truck just enough to make my eyes "bump" in my head a little, if that makes any sense. As soon as I passed over the bump we were passing under one street light to the next and I noticed the car in front of me was no longer the red El Dorado, but now a red and very recent model Toyota Camry. The tail lights were high and bright now and the car was most certainly not the car it was just a second before. This really had me puzzled as I kept following it at the same speed as before. There was no one at the intersection as we passed through it and the car that was behind me slowed and turned right. I kept following this car until I reached my house about a half a mile up the road. I couldn't for the life of me figure out what just happened. The transition was so smooth and clean it had me sitting in my cab staring at the back of this car wondering if I was insane or distracted or what. I got home and sat and thought about this whole situation for a minute and your blog came back to me, so I just went to your site and decided to send this to you.

At this point I'm completely certain about the car transitioning instantly in front of me. I never took my eyes off the car, didn't have the radio on, it was well lit, and I was paying close attention to this vehicle. Also, I was following very close to this cars bumper as I was irritated at their driving so slow. I don't know that I will tell anyone else about it, as it sounds like I was simply mistaken and has the feel of a ghost story, but since you delve into this sort of thing I figured I'd shoot you this email. It seems almost that the El Dorado was from 60 years ago, and suddenly replaced by a current car traveling along the same path. The roads around campus have been here for nearly 100 years in one form or another. I don't know what else to say, but this whole situation has me completely confused and thinking much deeper into the Web Bots analysis than I had previously. Email me back if you have any questions.

Dude!  That SEEMS like it is near the hyper-chroniac framework.  Only question is whether it seemed like time was moving faster/or slower/ while all this was going on either in this or other events in your life lately?  And - any "missing time" associated?

 

There's a theory which doesn't get much play in polite circles that our whole universe intersects with another universe every so often on our tripping around space and that when this happens portal kinds of events happen.

 

You can find it in some books...perhaps one of the better known is The Haunted Mesa by Louis L'Amour...  little more significant than a few Dow points, I'd say...

 

Picture this kind of 'portal' thing happening on a widespread basis...with large numbers of people just 'crossing over'...gives you pause to think, huh?  Like ask yourself what would it have been to pass, stop, and gotten into that ElDo?  Or - stranger - if there was no control how that crossing took place - you were simply there.  Trippy, huh?

---

One other thing I forgot to get in to the first posting today was that huge iceberg that has broken off the Antarctic...

 

GDP Happy Talk

Stand by for another economic miracle from government statisticians:

"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter) according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 5.7 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in exports that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and in federal government spending.

Motor vehicle output added 0.44 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.01 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.08 percentage point from the third-quarter change. "

---

"The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, 0.2 percentage point less than in the advance estimate; this index increased 1.3 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the third.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 6.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 5.9 percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 13.9 percent, compared with a decrease of 18.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 18.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 5.0 percent, compared with an increase of 18.9 percent."

Homework Assignment due Sunday Evening:  Essay questions: 250 words or less:

• If the price index was up nearly 2% in Q4 2009, what is the explanation for claims of near zero inflation in the CPI figures?

• Explain how GDP can be rising so fast with a 'no jobs' recovery.

• Discuss how 'real' Real GDP is when it doesn't consider monetary inflation.  Use the Federal Reserve H.6 money stocks table which shows Dec 2009-Dec 2009 M1 monetary inflation of 6.2% in your discussion.

• Bonus question: With all the empty homes around, and Depression-era real unemployment, explain how it is that GDP hasn't crashed?  Specifically reveal how outsourcing hits domestic company sales without creating jobs.

 

Slapstick Government

"Obama scolds Rep. Cantor at summit for paper prop".  His infraction?  Brought a copy of the 2,400 pages of healthscare reform...and that's called a stunt?  We are soooo screwed....

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Remember my job creation rant?  Here's Nancy Pelosi saying the Healthscare bill will create 400,000 jobs almost immediately.  You bet'cha madam comrade...which page of Iron Mountain was that on, again?

 

Problems Over?

Oh sure the MSM are religiously saying the modern analogs to "Good times are just ahead" but that's not playing well in New Mexico where the third largest residential brokerage outfit in the state has filed Chapter 11.

---

Reader reports in from Las Vegas up US 97 a ways:

"Hi George: I heard on a local news program here in Las Vegas NV that 60,000 people are expected to lose there unemployment benefits in the next month if the govt doesn't step in an extend the benefits."

Bad Timing Guess

Sorry:  Outgoing republicorp senator Judd Gregg is warning the country is headed for a financial meltdown in 5-7 years.  Bad guess.  Try late summer or at latest this fall.

 

Oh, and don't leave out the whole frigging world going down, too.

 

Out to Get Us

SecState Hillary says the US deficit is a national security issue.  But wait, didn't Bill orchestrate the selling missile technology to China?  Selective amnesia's a bitch, huh?  But then again, Obama's been selling China missile technology, too - which is what Commerce Sec Gary Locke was over arranging a few months back...  What?  not suppose to have recall? Dang me.

---

But the rewriting of history is getting all the more absurd with Hillary Clinton blaming Deity Greenspan for the mess.  But wait: Didn't hubby Bill reappoint Greenspan?  My memory must be failing...

 

No worries, though...all part of the....

 

New World Odor

The Fed's looking into the role of Goldman Sachs in the Greece debacle. And wondering who else has a hand in the (derivatives) cookie jar...

 

Why am I not Surprised Department

Somehow, the report that the top tax-writer in the country, democon Charlie Rangel reporting that an ethics panel has ruled against him doesn't surprise me.

---

Also in a heap-o-deep is NY gov David Paterson.

 

But, so what else is new?

 

Censorship Needed?

A British report says "Children over-exposed to sexual imagery".  So they call for more regulation of sexual content, which has me wondering if I could sign up to be one the 'sex police'? 

 

Has it occurred to these folks that the way to control the amount of sexual imagery exposed is by turning the off media inputs?  Gosh!  Maybe people could learn to read, again.  Where's my copy of Catcher in the Rye?

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping:  Movement of the "R" Word

Don't know if you have seen this yet, but I hadn't and it was really quite good.  An appearance in 1995 of James  J.  ("J.J.") Johnson (posted in 2008) before the Senate Terrorism Committee.  His message was simple then:

"Ladies and gentlemen, to put it to you bluntly, some of the legislation that's been coming out of Washington, some of the executive actions taking place, ladies and gentlemen these things started a revolution 200-years ago and got this country started."

After watching his articulate discussion (it's only 4½ minutes long) I think you can see first-hand that the "R" word is not just something being talked about by overweight white males with beer bellies.

 

Equally important, just this week, a report on the Northeast Intelligence Network's website by director Douglas Hagmann describes a recent meeting of Washington's top brass with governors of the National Governors Association's Special Committee on Homeland Security and Public Safety last weekend.

 

Key quote: "One governor aid "...described a strange and “almost surreal” usage of terms, phrases and jargon that dominated their presentations to the governors, and noted an obviously deliberate avoidance of other more specifically accurate terms that seemed to obscure their messages."

 

(Hagmann's site is one you ought to have bookmarked and visit now and then to keep up on the background maneuvering on intelligence matters.)

 

Shortly after that 'call out" we noticed that DHS' Janet Napolitano actually started calling the Fort Hood killings an 'act of terrorism'...

---

Linguistically,  terror and revolt are distinctly different and it might look something like this:

 

To those of us who desire to maintain nonpartisan status, the key thing to be watching for are news events that bridge the gap between concepts, and thus move the news event-flow this way, or that.

 

Like the Austin light aircraft attack of last week.  Few are willing to paint this as an act of 'revolution'.  The Google news search [+insane +plane +crash +austin +irs] brings (when I checked this morning) 1,662 'hits'.  Same search substituting "revolution" brought only 250 hits, while using "revolt" brought 532.

 

Whether by design, or by chance, what we'll keep watching for are events that 'fill the void' conceptually between 'terror' and 'revolt'.  the closer they get, the more peril to our peaceful pursuit of Life, Liberty, and Happiness.

 

Be Scared...But Not to Inaction

Here's a dandy reader note:

"Hi George,

I visit your site every day, and have been for about two months now. About the time I seriously considered paying for the advanced information you provide, I lost my job.

The person that e-mailed you regarding the land surveyor scenario seems to have put a finger on this in that, this time is different. Back in 2001, I quit my job – outright – because travel became so unpleasant for me after 9/11. Back then, I was able to secure employment locally, before the unemployment office could tell me that my benefits had been declined. I’ve been out of work for a month now. I’ve sent out about 200 resumes’ in the local area. To date, the only response received is the typical “Sorry, we have no employment opportunities at this time… We wish you the best of success in securing employment.” or some such thing. It seems that, this time, jobs are less then scarce – they are nonexistent! Not only are people afraid, those running the companies doing the laying off are also afraid. Being realistic about this, I expect I will more then likely have my house foreclosed on in the coming months, becoming one more addition to the housing foreclosure statistics. But I too have family and resources to fall back on, if foreclosure actually becomes a reality.

But to be sure, there is a paradigm shift in mindset taking place in this country! The struggle is not only dealing with not being able to secure gainful employment, but also the real prospects that a staggering lifestyle change is eminent. The struggle is realizing that those things we surround ourselves with on a daily basis are about to become our yokes of burden. While I do have some debt, the vehicle and travel trailer are paid for. That leaves the mortgage and insecure credit card debt to contend with, and the unknowns of having to deal with that in the aftermath of financial collapse.

And that brings me to the point of my e-mailing you today. My family, not actually having experienced any losses of employment to date, they have gleefully labeled me some kind of kook because, for the past year, I’ve been begging them to start purchasing and storing extra food, water, winter clothes, camping supplies, tools, medical supplies, seeds, wind-up flashlights, wind-up shortwave radios, and any other items that might make good barter items, and oh, yes… They should be investing in guns and ammunition – lots of ammunition. Now, get this… The response from one of my sisters “Will we at least get to stay in a cabin? I simply could not live in a tent – GROSS!” Brilliant, Sis!!!

In addition to the basic survival items, I’ve opted that ammunition will become one of my many barter items, and lots of it – including 9mm, .40 caliber, .45 caliber, 5.56, 7.62, 30-30, 30-06, .308, .22LR and .177 pellets for that thrifty pump style pellet rifle.

Other things will make excellent barter items, as well. Those things might include BIC cigarette lighters, Gerber/Leatherman multi-tools, Aspirin, Neosporin, Band-Aids, Toothbrushes, toilet paper, sanitary napkins, hand-held magnifying glass, etc…

Many claim that we should be buying Gold and Silver for financial protection. I’d like to purchase a small amount of Gold and maybe even a bit more Silver. But here’s the thing… When you are hungry, you can’t eat Gold & Silver! You can eat the food that you’ve stored. And if you buy Gold & Silver, I think you (or someone like me will) for being so kind and considerate because I’m going to be adding your Gold & Silver to it to my stores after you’ve starved to death! Is this making sense, or what?

It is my opinion that the time is 23:59.59.59 hours. That is, we are only a second from the midnight hour. If you are lucky and you start preparing now, you might build up enough supplies to survive long enough to learn some hunting, trapping and fishing skills.

The fact is, George, if you decide to publish this e-mail, I’m not going to apologize to your readers for scaring them. The fact is that I hope I do scare them. I hope I wake them up and they begin taking the steps toward self preservation.

The signs of the time are clear! This is not going to end well and we need to understand this, and we need to get prepared if we expect to survive. Yes, that’s correct, the time is 2359.59.59 hours and the witching hour is only one second away!!!

At the end of the day, will we be prepared?

Thanks for your consideration regarding the opportunity to share this information, George!

Shoot, podnah, that's what we do 'round hee-ah... (Which is a little less stiff than corp-speak "We always appreciate sincere feedback from our target market, especially those with experiential inferences to propagate to similar psychographics...yada, yada, yada...").

 

Now let's flip back to the previous slide:  On the "R" word.  Is it revolutionary or  terrorism to want to develop a high degree of self-sufficiency since we all know deep down inside, government can't do it all?  If they can't do something as simple as create jobs (easily done with tariffs and taxing outsource work that could be done in the USofA) then think they have the brains and plans to feed and care for the whole country?

 

How absurd.  But that's the ditch that official is dangerously close to running into: the distinction in thought between terror, revolt, and survive.

 

They maybe oughta play some Gloria Gainer now and then.

 

Serious Note

This from serious non-MSM journalist Devvy Kidd...

"Good morning.

 

In your write up this morning about health care, minimum wage and outsourcing you mention no one is talking about it.

 

I've been hammering on this since NAFTA was unconstitutionally signed into law and been harping on it ever since.

 

My last column was just two weeks ago:

 

Congress refuses to bring home millions of jobs

 

Almost four years ago:

 

Minimum Wage and Fascism

 

Not to mention trying to get people to get candidates to make a promise to introduce and pass legislation in the next CON-gress to get us out of Bretton Woods.

 

As you know, it was the foundation for the destruction of our financial sovereignty and blueprint for the central banks and the global disaster we're seeing now.

 

Reminds me of the part in Hunt for Red October when the seaman tells the arrogant captain as the Americans fire a torpedo: You damn fool you've killed us all. Bam.

Not enough mental acuity juice, I guess.  What I was thinking (or nearly so) was in terms of the MSM.  Yes, there are serious researching journalists (like Devvy & Jerome Corsi to name two) who do see through the Washington fog and call it like it is.  My use of the term 'no one' was metaphorical and a reference to MSM... I sit corrected.  Hand me that pointy-hat, would'ja?

 

Devvy's website is http://www.devvy.com/ and deserves frequent visits: Constitutionally Speaking. 

 

Texas Hillbillies?

Reader note:

"Dear Mr. Ure, I had to laugh out loud at your Beverly Hillbillies remark yesterday; I watched that show as a young person and I always thought I was most like Ellie Mae; shared that profound love of animals. The world turns, though, and now I find myself copying Grannie fooling with her secret yarbs! The "Beverly Hillbillies" as a life script, who knew?"

Although there are some parts locally we refer to as "Deliverance Country" where you better have a welcome or a warrant if you show up uninvited, best I can figure rural people have as much - and often more - sense than city folks.

 

Coming from a place of "Ozark swampland" the Clampetts were considerably luckier than we've been so far.  Not that having your own water, solar power, goats, machine shop, and 30-acres to push dirt around on amongst 90-foot high pines is all bad.  Far from it.

 

But, every once in a while I talk to a wildcatter who I try to promote into looking at the geology under the south end of our property, where most of the subsurface rights (leases) have expired.  So far, no luck; dammit.

 

Every so often, though, I head down to the creek and start bump-firing one of the SKS's into the ground, hoping I've watched enough Clampett time on teevee for some of it to have rubbed off down at the archetype level.  I suppose what's screwing this up is I was watching Ellie Mae a little too closely; just can't say.

 

Nevertheless, neighbors have sorta gotten used to what sounds like a replay of the Vietnam War with me 'drilling' with 7.62 rounds.  I've peppered the creek walls pretty good, but nothing yet...just an occasional sheen on the water...nothing commercial - yet.

 

If I get anything, Elaine's already got the Zaa Zaa Greenacres role down, while I've always pictured myself more in a William Shatner kinda role.  It'd be fine with us to end up as the GreenTrek Hillbillies, I suppose...although I'm running low on ammunition and I now have a steel and lead lined creek bottom...so maybe next lifetime.

 

Aridzona Driving Tip

Remember our speed-cam discussion this week?  Reader input:

"In regards to these traffic camera tickets only the co-custodians of records from the company installing and using the camera's is qualified to give testimony on that evidence not the police officer or civilian official . I repeat the police officer is not qualified to give testimony on the evidence a custodian of records must show up to court or the evidence is invalid.

Unless you get a 'hanging judge' who has a paycheck that depends on revenue from tickets into the general fund.  Repeat after me: fee justice.

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Be sure and drop by Monday for a special report on picking a shortwave radio...

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Send your comments to george@ure.net

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Shop Till Your Drop Department:

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"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn't, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"

 

 

 

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too.....  Click here for the index and details.

 

MyGroPonics

My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics.  It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight).  Sound interesting?  It's just $10 bucks here...

 

       

 

Pass It On

A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings.  If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them.  Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'.  Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..."

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 Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.

 

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Thursday February 25, 2010

A Quick Couple of Things

A reader up in Vancouver, BC (site of the not so wintry Olympics) has been complaining that my site seems not to be working up thataway.  Any user feedback from Vancouver would be appreciated...everything is as normal as it ever is around here.

-0-

Want to mention that a couple of weeks back I told you to - in effect "Look to get out by the end of options expiration rally..." which with the Dow now down more than 180 looks to be the start of something more.

 

Talked to Robin Landry this morning and in his work, once we crossed the 10,250 line, the rest  (e.g. a decline to the 9,500 area) became a very high probability short-term outcome.  Which is fine since I told subscribers what I was doing in long expiration put options going into this.

-0-

Hustler ('It's the writing, honest!) publisher Larry Flynt's blog piece on Sibel Edmunds naming "The Traitors Among Us" (by Brad Friedman)  is starting to go viral.  Much to the consternation of the ex-Bushistas regime and power brokers, I'm sure...

-0-

And this is the capper email of the morning - after my rant about double-taxation to pay for ever-larger government:

"George,

Here in Salt Lake County, Utah the County Government is now charging a fee to use the sheriff's office. This will be based on the number of "housing units" that are associated with any piece of real estate and must be paid yearly (but NOT being called a "tax"). Also figured in is that large apartment complexes have more "dispatches" so the fee goes up more "per unit". The result is that at least one large ski resort is now begging to be annexed into one of the incorporated area inside the county (to avoid having to pay the "police user fee".

Pay as you go government is arriving here in Utah.

But can we ever pay enough?  Freakin' dandy - check it out: http://www.slvlesa.org/

 

How do we love government?  Let me count the pays...

 

Healthscare Debate A Yawner

The top part of this morning's report is not as important as the first item in the 'coping section' so let's just roll, shall we?

 

The biggest media hype today will involve healthscare (sic) reform.  My friend Howard figures the republicorps will put on a good show until push comes to shove, then they will work their butts off   to protect the soaring healthcare cost bubble.  Not an unreasonable expectation.

 

Here's the question we might be asking when the foreign press chooses today to run headlines like "Up to 1,200 needless deaths, patients abused, staff bullied to meet targets... yet a secret inquiry into failing hospital says no one's to blame"...  

---

"Say, are there interlocking directorships or international ownerships of media that are running an agenda, too?"  What kind of question is that?

---

Still, the core issue is:

•Almost 13 million young adults aged 20-29 years did not have health insurance coverage in 2008 (30%).

•Young men aged 20-29 years were 36% more likely than young women of that age to be uninsured.

•Young adults aged 20-29 years without insurance were less likely to have a usual source of medical care (44%) than were those with private insurance (80%) or Medicaid (84%).

•Young adults aged 20-29 years without insurance were four times as likely (21%) as those with private insurance (5%) and two times as likely as those with Medicaid (9%) to have unmet medical need.

•Uninsured young women aged 20-29 (33%) were almost twice as likely as uninsured young men of that age (18%) to have had unmet prescription medication need in the past 12 months.

So that's the problem...but now let me tell you what neither side is talking about:  Minimum wages. 

 

I just happened to be looking at some stats out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday and did you know that there are 2.5-millionAmericans working below the minimum wage?  (Care to bet on whether these are counted as 'employed' in the unemployment stats to make 'em smell better?)

 

Point that NO ONE HAS THE BALLS  to talk about is that:

• Outsourcing jobs to 3rd world crapholes reduces wages in these United States.

• In order to maintain competitiveness, US the three remaining US employers are cutting benefits for both remaining workers.

• Then, thinking this nation of Ovis' are too dumb to see through globalism's bullsh*t veneer, the globalists who write checks to both sides of the political aisle/scam all get millions sucked into a ginned up right/left scam to write the crooks bigger checks - regardless of outcome-  rather than facing the underlying crisis - supersaturated consumers, too much government, and too little growth.

 

So yeah, people need healthcare.  But we could solve more than half the problem I figure (and tax consumption) by purchasing power parity regulations aimed at cheap overseas labor and a national consumer boycott of nations that don't provide US employees for things like customer service positions.

 

While you're tied up watching the theatrics of all this, you're playing right into the globalist game.  But hey!  This is what makes average Americans average, now isn't it?

 

Snowed

Rasmussen Reports says 10% of voters say congress is doing a good job. Can these 10% share whatever they're smoking with the rest of us?

 

Other Snow Jobs

Lemme see, there's the one in New York where a winter storm is arriving today...

 

Speaking of NY

Big questions about influence used in a case of purported abuse involving and aid to the governor...

 

Greece'd

We've got a pool started here at the ranch on how soon the country collapses, especially since there's a nationwide strike underway there.

 

Our local version of the PowerBall number is picking which country will be #2 in the EU right behind them...

 

Talks Talk

India and Pakistan agree to continue talking, even though pretty much everyone figures nothing will come of it.

 

This makes it an ideal time to buy that vacation home in Kashmir you've been thinking of...

---

Irish foreign minister first to entry Gaza Strip....wonder if some of the luck of the Irish will rub off?

---

US is prepared to start talking with the Russians about arms reductions again any ol' time now...but no point in hurrying that...want to have enough warheads left for the global thermonuclear war...

---

Speaking of which a press release that crossed the desk...

"A chilling revelation claiming that the Israel - Iran conflict will erupt into a full scale war, possibly nuclear war, is sending jitters across some Catholic groups. The source of this ominous prophecy is a certain Duke Puntalangit, a Filipino visionary. Allegedly, Puntalangit has specified that the Middle East crisis will eventually lead to full military confrontation before the month of May this year.

The visionary claims that he has been observing the present crisis between Israel and Iran for years. He said that the overall global scenario has fulfilled ancient prophecies, specifically those related to the contents of the Third Secret of Fatima. According to Puntalangit,the upcoming Middle East war will eventually push the world economy to its worst. He further warned that the US economy will be greatly affected by this war and will never recover again until the celestial purging comes.

I was smug about being in the East Texas outback as the place to hide out from falling nukes until my friend Cliff asked "You near any key energy infrastructure?"  "Mean like that UTI slant drill hole just across the road from the south end of our property on that 600 acres oil patch?...Oh-oh...I get it...."

 

Regardless: We're still hoping to go Beverly Hillbillies before we go out in a blinding flash, though...   See?  No doom & gloom around here...optimism...always optimism..

 

They're Called What?

A SeaWorld trainer has been attacked and killed by a killer whale...which is why they are called what kind of whales?

---

Back in the day I got to spend a little time with a killer whale up in Seattle...curious thing about them is that when they are mellow, they are totally mellow.  Like to have their tongues scratched...really a strange texture...cold, rough, soft...unlike anything I'd ever touched before...

 

Think You've Got Bad Luck?  Dept.

"Man hit by same train twice in 2 weeks" says the OC Register.

 

Hope he buys a lotto ticket...maybe things'll average out.

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping:

America Passes the Brink -- Why Government's Growing

Say, here's a fine revenue enhancing plan:  Why not have cities in bankrupt states (like....oh, California comes to mind...) charge people for calling 9-11 for emergency help?

 

That would be frigging crazy, right?  But that's exactly what the story out of CBS-13 is reporting as a fait accompli in Tracy, California.

 

So who is this band of revolutionaries and what have they done with city services and why?  Hand me Wikipedia, would'ja?

"Located in the Central Valley, Tracy sits atop fertile agricultural lands, which have come under increasing development pressure as the San Francisco Bay Area's vigorous population growth has spilled over into the Tracy area as well as other locations such as new town of Mountain House near the Bay Area's edge. Because of the historic use of DDT on area row crops, there are residual issues of soil contamination from this substance and related persistent chemicals.[1] There is a historic area chloroform groundwater plume associated with Georgia Pacific operations in the area. Faults considered active in the Tracy area are the Black Butte Fault, Midway Fault and Carnegie Corral Fault.[2] The San Joaquin Fault traverses the Tracy area and is a potential source of risk for seismic events.[3]

The details can be sniffed out something like this:

• Regular families can opt for a $48/year signup.

• Low income folks can sign up for $36/a year.

• If a nonparticipating family calls for help, and EMT's administer aid, then that's $300 bucks...

 

With most media not doing a very good job of connecting dots here, let's pull back a bit and look at some 'big picture' stuff because this is all symptomatic of what happens in 'revolutionary' times.

 

At the macro level the problem is that cities are trying to provide the same services in lean times that they were providing in phatter times. 

 

And, with the FedGov running low on dough (don't worry, the printing presses are running with deficit spending and healthscare plans) States are pushing down problems to cities...which in turn pass then on to the ultimate buck recipients; you and me.

 

The key pattern to be looking for goes something like this:

• Mass housing collapse and high foreclosure rates lead to....

• Declining state budgets as well as....

• Declining county and city budgets....which leads to...

• New schemes to raise dough...

 

Now let me throw a dart at my states in trouble map... If you don't have a map up on your wall to throw darts at, click over here for the Wall Street Journal's bank failure tracking map.... or go over to Slate's dandy "When did your County's jobs disappear?" map...

 

Be sure to print off maps before throwing your darts...I managed to ruin two nice 24-inch LCD monitors before I figured out that TFT screens tend to lose when you throw 2.5 ounce pub darts at 'em...but that's another story.

 

Typical of the money-making scams is the outbreak of Photo Enforcement Traffic Cameras which are a hot topic in Aridzona nowadays.  Again, same factors are in play.  A kind of perfect storm...

• Collapsed housing market, since the old growth business in the Valley of the Sun has been 'getting old' and fewer can afford that...so there goes housing.

• Then you've got a republicorp governor, which means the state will be punished for that, being John McCain's homeland, and so forth....

• What to do?  Traffic cameras that snap pictures and print money!

 

Except it isn't playing with common sense folks who are rebelling by wearing thinks like monkey masks and other Halloweenish get-up in order to make it hard for the State to prove who was actually driving.

 

[Sidebar:  Florida has a law against wearing a mask on a public street or highway...]

 

(ALTA readers will recall quiet a while back this 'masks' stuff was called well in advance...and here it is, all tied neatly into the 'revolution meme...)

 

Somewhere in America, there has to be a common-sense lawyer who could file a class action lawsuit claiming equal protection statues are being abused.  How so?

 

Well, seems to me that if "x" percent of private sector jobs have been eliminated because their jobs have been shipped to lower bidders overseas, that there would be an equal "x" percent of jobs lost in government  at all levels and spread proportionately.

 

The Deep Dark Secret Revealed

OK, here's the economic reality that no one in Washington, any State Capitol, or even your local County or City governments want you to know.  Government grows when times get bad.

 

Here's why in simple, direct economics with no fancy math or bullshit.  This is so simple you can teach it to anyone.

Pencil out what happens when two conditions occur:  The civilian employment drops by 10% in a recession but government employment remains the same (although programs like JPTA and its successors (WIA et al) means government really grows during recessions, but let's be generous and assume it stays the same size).  Want to see an ugly progression?

(Employment in Millions))
Timeline	Govjobs	Civjobs	Govjob Ratio
Baseline Year	10	100.0	10
Recession #1	10.0	90.0
Growth @20%	12.0	108.0	9
Recession #2	12.0	97.2
Growth @ 20%	14.4	116.6	8.1
Recession #3	14.4	105.0
Growth @ 20%	17.3	126.0	7.29
Recession #4	17.3	113.4
Growth @20%	20.7	136.0	6.561
Recession #5	20.7	122.4
Growth @ 20%	24.9	146.9	5.9049
Recession #6	24.9	132.2	5.31

 

You see that right-hand column?  Starts off with one government job for 100 private sector job.  But, by the time you grow through six recessions, you're climbed to 1 government job for every 5.3 private sector jobs.

 

Simple, huh?

 

"Ain't it really a lot more complicated?"  A bit...but not much.  If you just awaken slightly you can see the pressures around you every day. 

 

How many recessions have there been?  Well, you go over to Wikipedia and start counting and it quickly becomes apparent that the Founding Father's missed something.

 

But that's the ugly truth of things:  In a recession where government doesn't suffer right along with the common (nongov) workers, the power and influence of government grows and that unfortunately (but almost precisely) explains how America went from almost no government to way too much.

 

Or, is it?  Just don't call 9-11 in Tracy or speed while crossing the boring flatlands of Aridzona...you might encounter the answer first-hand.

---

This simple kind of economic insight is what landed Nikolai Kondratiev in a Siberian labor camp for being a little too honest about how economics works...just a damn shame our forefathers didn't have econometric modeling which I'm convinced could have helped them develop a 'more perfect union.'  One with a ban on lobbyists, maybe, or interstate campaign contributions to what were supposed to be locally elected positions.

 

Bigger government thanks to recession and checkbook legislation via lobbyists is not about to be reversed - just too much dough in it for the player.  Like asking a floating craps game to turn over the dice...not a chance except the hard way. 

 

That fuse was lit the first time government didn't shrink in proportion to civilian unemployment, know what I'm saying?  Social/technocratic/corpgov fascism has only been a matter of time...

 

Oh, and those stories about how "Obama Rejects Attacks' 'Cries of Socialism"?  Till government suffers along with the people, that's where we're going, sad to say...but no reason for government to suffer.  After all, they control the printing presses that make (what passes for) money, LOL.

 

Worrywart's Corner

Hmmm...here's a good nail-biter...

"Hi George;

 

Per Jim Sinclair, Greece may only have days left before they run out of cash.

 

There is a full court press of high ranking US officials on the ground in the Middle East.  They are all there to work on the attack on Iran.

I swear, I used to think wars were something promoted by the defense industry...you know - government contracts and all.  But no, my new theory is that the "wars and rumors of wars"  is all a controller's game (in concert with MainStreamMedia) to sell papers, pairs of eyes on the Cyclops in the living room, and in turn bolster sagging ad sales.

 

Traffic Surge

Say, I noticed that 97-thousand people read this web site yesterday.  Either we managed to spill enough coffee from people laughing that law offices are grabbing snapshots wholesale or someone said something nice about the site  or our practical approach to economics makes way more sense than anything out of Washington, or I have a server issue, or....(the list goes on...)

 

But, whatever the reason, thanks!  Just keep passing the website along to your friends...'preciate it. 

 

---

Wednesday February 24, 2010

America's Crisis of Confidence

No surprise to a whole slew of headlines out this week about America's crisis of confidence. 

 

For one, the Consumer Confidence numbers are the lowest they have been since 1983...which if you're not completely awake is the worst in 27-years.

 

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in January, declined sharply in February. The Index now stands at 46.0 (1985=100), down from 56.5 in January. The Present Situation Index decreased to 19.4 from 25.2. The Expectations Index declined to 63.8 from 77.3 last month.

 

Then we have the Mass Layoff report from the Labor Department to contend with.  I've been keeping a chart of this so we can look at this data series over time:

 

Whether this is the start of the Big Second Leg Down will be revelaed in time, but not much, I expect.

 

Financial Terrorism

But, if you think Mass Layoffs and sagging consumer confidence are the problem, forgitaboutit.   The BIGGEST, MEANEST, NASTIEST problems are revealed where no one (but maybe the odd nutter like me) would look.  On Page 4 of the FDIC's Quarterly banking report for Q4 '08 and Q4 2009.

 

When you to click over to the report here and down about 3/4's of the way look for the line item "Notional Amount of Derivatives" where you will see Q4 of 2008 was listed as $212-trillion m (just 14.93 times 2008 GDP.

 

But Q4 2009 shows the notional value of derivatives at what?

$213,568,137,000,000

The bank consolidation continues to: "The number of institutions on the FDIC’s “Problem List” rose to 702 at the end of 2009, from 552 at the end of the third quarter and 252 at the end of 2008. Total assets of “problem” institutions were $402.8 billion at yearend 2009, compared with $345.9 billion at the end of September and $159.0 billion at the end of 2008. Both the number and assets of “problem” institutions are at the highest level since June 30, 1993." 

 

OK...so troubled banks are up 27.2%, derivatives are still growing and mass layoffs are back, and consumer confidence is crashing.  Gee.  What we need is some good news...hmmm...

 

Just a Spoon Full of Sugar Makes the....

...Federal Survey of Current Business issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Tuesday.

"REAL GROSS domestic product (GDP) increased 5.7 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2009, the largest increase since the third quarter of 2003, according to the “advance” estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) (chart 1 and table 1).1 In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent. For the year 2009, real GDP decreased 2.4 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in 2008 (see page 6). The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment. In contrast, federal government spending and consumer spending both decelerated.2 ● Businesses drew down inventories for the seventh straight quarter. However, the drawdown in the fourth quarter was much less than in the third quarter, resulting in a strong contribution to GDP growth...

Still feeling hypoglycemic?  Don't read this part (the assumptions used):

 

 

So lots of assumptions and preliminary stuff.  Year on Year change?

 

 

And here's the Whopper (with apologies to Burger King)...

 

 

See how much money we can all save when we go through a foreclosure festival in a non-Depression?  What do you mean banks should be screaming to lend you money at near zero rates if this were true?

 

But wait!  It is true.  "Wall Street pay rises 17% says Bankster Bonus pool data out from the state of New York:

 

 

More in today's "Coping" section...  although as I tell friends - or would if I had any...

 

Ure Axiom #322:  Assets Minus Liabilities Equals China's (or other bag-holder's) Equity.

---

Speaking of Horse's Axioms...you saw where gold was down $10.60 at the end of trading on Tuesday and the Dow closed down how much that's about 10-times the gold move?  100 points./..close enough for ranch work.

---

Course if you aren't happy with my pronouncements on the economy, even former Fed Boss Alan Greenspan is telling his CFR hosts that 'the recovery is unbalanced'. NSS.

---

It's along in here that I'd mention that it was the Diety Greenspan's easy money for anyone with a pulse to buy a home with NoDoc loans that pushed up GWB's ratings that (in some measure) has to be held accountable for craphole America is now in financial...or is that so obvious that no one in the corp-run MSM has the balls to remind anyone of it?

---

I'm going to have to adopt an appropriate nom de plume to keep writing this stuff.  May have to change my name to Ben Dover.  Say it aloud quickly...

 

Rich Getting Richer Department

If you're mad now, don't go look at the new report yesterday from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities which says oh, by the by, the rich are paying less than their share of taxes...

 

And so the concentration of wealth marches back toward pre-1929 levels again.  Lovely how history rhymes.

 

Anyone got a lawsuit for violation of equal protection statues handy?

 

Google This

Google is being eyed with some suspicion by the European Union which wants to know more about how search rankings are done and more about search engine advertising.  This is bad - very bad.

---

Unfortunately, what the rocket surgeons of the EU don't realize is that Google is a delicate balance of competing problems and the EU could be about the (pardon this) 'eff things up' for Google. 

 

Here's why:  Don't know how conversant you are with the bloodsport of search engine optimization (SEO) but I get involved with it from time-to-time on behalf of consulting clients and for my own sites, too, come to think about it.

 

Back in the early days of SEO life was simple:  Search engines went out and had their spiders simply 'read' pages looking for keywords and key phrases, then they've look at site logs to get some idea of page views and presto!  There was a page rank.

 

But that was years ago (which is where the EU's thinking is, if'n you ask me).  What the EU doesn't seem to appreciate is that Google has done a phenomenal job of cutting through all the black-hat SEO out there to come up with pretty honest (or near as can be, given the 'black hats') assessment of web popularity and Google Ranks which is then the core of their ad business.

 

Having spent a lot of time looking at SEO (OK, and now and then for ways to either beat or at least do Googsters one-better to get a higher rank for clients) I can tell you with nearly 100% confidence that if the EU starts getting access to the proprietary ways that Google handles its ranking (and its ad business, in turn) that the black hats of SEO will be all over that process like white-on-rice trying to find how to zip to the top of the rankings with worthless content.

 

Ultimately, Google is a key part of the future of the USA as are other web resources that people don't normally think of in strategic terms.  But here's the thing:  Google is a power projection of corpgov and to the extent that their business processes leak out, the less value they will have.

 

What to I really think?  I wouldn't be surprised if there's not some crooked search engine coalition in the EU which is itching to get the 800 pound gorilla of search pantsed so they can see how the Google inference engines work so they can find work arounds....

 

Sorry, don't mean to get into a rant on this, but while the search engine business seems like a pretty simple concept, trust me: it's not.  It's about as down & dirty with good guys versus the black hats as you'll find on a neighborhood street corner.  Except instead of the black hats selling crack, they're continually selling corporate-crack:  ways to skate around a logical/rational ranking system so that you'll get their sleazy whatevers at the top of your next search.

---

Whether this is the guys in Redmond taking the game to Google, or whether it's something else, I'll let you try and figure out.  But it all boils down to this: Without search engines competing for the best search returns, would the web be what it is today? 

 

OMG can you imagine what could happen to dissent if, for example, government was running search? LOL....you see it?  The big battles of freedom are waged one step up from where we all think on a day-to-day basis:  Confine what people can get in the way of information - whether it's the library or the web - and you own their butts.

 

EU's on a dangerous path....but then again, megalomania isn't a native American term, is it?

 

Hand me that blood pressure cuff, would you?

 

EU Implosion

Transport strikes are going on in Europe...

Annual thing, but still....keep an eye on it...

 

Weather Extremes

Anyone besides me watching the breakdown of the Gulf Stream?

May have something to do with the record snows in Moscow, Texas, and coming this weekend, the NE US.

 

Moat Gloat

Speaking of megalomania...what's up with Obama administration plans to spend $1-billion for a new US embassy in London?

---

Around the Ranch: We're in the process of adding a small guest apartment to the office here at the ranch so visiting guests will have someplace private to stay without driving an hour to a hotel.  Nothing fancy: a bedroom, crapper, shower, rustic wood stove, hot water and a nice view out into the woods.  My Cost?  About $7,000 for a 22 by 24 area of 528 square feet and that includes paint, engineered wood floors, yada, yada...oh - and labor, too, done by local Texan fellers with a 'git'er done attitude which means about 3- weeks from go to done.  I figure $14 a square foot finished including electrical, R13 side walls and more in the ceiling, more in the floor and ceiling...I mean livable space.

 

If our government could get that kind of efficiency, they'd be able to put in 1.8-million square feet of space - a quarter mile on a side roughly.

 

Don't worry....they won't.

---

But here's my real question: With all the unemployed construction workers in the USA are we going to ship unemployed construction workers over there and let them write off housing away from home and such so we can get some domestic benefit, or are we just bailing out Gordo Brown?

 

Forget what I said about megalomania...I may have been mistaken.

 

A Rose is a Rose Department

ABC according to reports may be planning to cut up to 300 jobs in its news operations. Think that's  a layoff?  My, oh my, no!  That's a transformation.

 

Healthscare Reality

Some folks in Washington are saying that the comprehensive healthscare bill is DOA.  This despite all Lazarus' pronouncements, huh?

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping:  with "Have I Lost My Mind?"

I know that's not a common thing to wonder (none of us like the answer, anyway) but this note from a reader crossed my inbox on Tuesday while the snow was coming down...

"Hi George I read your column everyday and I am a subscriber to your weekend column. I know you are a busy man and so am I prepping are place which is out of state. My question is and I know you explain this all the time in your column but please in laymen’s is are Gross national product. I am hoping I am saying this right or would it be called GDP gross domestic product higher than are national debt. People in my office are convinced that we make more products and sell them for than what are national debt is and we are ok and should stop listening to all this doom and gloom. I can balance my check book and I understand basic business but some of this is common sense. Is this right or wrong or have I lost my mind?"

The short answer is yes.  Unless you've had plenty of coffee, we could just leave it at that.

 

If you're really brave we could go through the following checkbook scenario:

• How much is in our checkbook:    $14.2 (trillion) GDP

• How much do we owe?                 $12.4 (trillion) National Debt

• Left to buy everything else:           $  1.9 (trillion)

 

Simple so far.

 

But that's where things are without additional spending plans.  And that GDP number was... from 2008 and before we watered down the money by whatever the monetary inflation has been running.

 

So in real terms...the truth of US Government spending is reflected on the Treasury's office of Financial Management site which every month publishes the Monthly Treasury Statement which in January looked like so:

 

Let's now step back a sec.  Treasury also issues a summary report of how FY2009 did.

 

To put it into checkbook terms:

The checkbook had  $2.105   (trillion) of income in FY 2009

Spending was........   $3.552  (trillion of expense/outgo)

Our checking balance dropped:  $-1.417  (trillion)
 

Being as you're a smart fellow or fellette, you'll look at this and say something like

"Well, if I have a national debt of  $12.41 trillion and we are going in the hole something like, what, $2-trillion this year, isn't the nation be technically bankrupt?"

Well, yes but also no.

 

All turns on how you want to define bankrupt.  The term means (legalistically) when a person or entity becomes insolvent.

 

Solvency is a little dicier. 
Some dictionaries go to the idea of having insufficient assets to cover their debts. 

 

By this definition, sometime over the next year - and I'm betting along about October/November with FY2011 gets underway, we will pass an important threshold where the US has more debts than it has income on an annual basis.  It could be argued that becomes a point of insolvency/bankruptcy.

 

But not so fast podnah!  The only thing the government needs to do is make an interest-only payment...just like you might be able to arrange for a year, or so, with your home mortgage holder if you got laid off.

 

Now, nations are not like calling up the bank.  Actually, what we do is call China which is why its so wonderfully convenient that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner speaks Mandarin...you following here?

 

Oh, sure, we hear stories about how China has set up phone room operations in Hong Kong and is ready to starting 'dialing to dump dollar assets" but we'll just print up more dollars anyway.

---

What all this gets around to is an elongated answer to the question you raised "Have I lost my mind?"

 

No.  The whole country has.  This part of East Texas is one reasonable ground to be found left on earth, near as I can figure.
 

New Spelling / Signup Proposal

Mentioning the nits and barbs on my spelling yesterday brought a number of nearly actionable ideas including this one:

"George

Along with your goats, you may want to borrow a burro. Next, take a picture of it and prominently place it on your web page and then place a disclaimer under the picture stating. "The information contained herein is riddled with misspellings and punctuation errors etc, but it is provided free of charge". However to log-in and read the postings daily you must first place your lips on your monitor and KISS MY ASS! This will serve as your unique biometric identifier and you will be immediately logged in.

Not a bad idea, I thought, until I tried it out.  Seems that because I generally drink a couple of cups of coffee and have breakfast before I do the first daily brushing, the 'dragon breath' (if you catch the Nuance, lol) was pretty overpowering.  Blew the monitor right off the desk.

 

Worse, Zeus the Cat remarked he couldn't tell one ass from another around here anymore.  Scrapped the idea.  Also put Zeus on bread & water for a week to see if that will tune up his 'tude which has gotten pretty surly here lately.

 

Coinkydinks

Reader's noticed something strange that you noticed, no doubt, as well:

"Maybe its just me but all this Toyota crap seem to become a problem just as Gm/Ford need a boost. Don't get me wrong I will buy American. I've been a Ford man my whole life. It seems to me though I don't remember hearing about any Toyota problem till we needed a way to sway the left over market over to GM and ford. Not saying there's not a problem either, just seems a bit coincidental.

NSS...funny how that works.

 

And the Bottom Line Is?

This one from a reader:

"Hi George,

Thanks for your posts. As always, very useful.

Just a general "boots on the ground" view of the Housing report that I thought you may find insightful.

A very good friend of mine (used to be a spouse, but that is another story) is the ultimate "boots on the ground" reference for housing, real estate, building and so forth. He's a surveyor. The first guy to hit raw land, the first guy you call when you are considering building something, the last guy that gets called before the deal closes, and involved at every point in between.

And here's what he says; "Nothing. No work. Nothing. We had nothing going back six months, and we have nothing for the spring - AT ALL - which is unheard of, even going back to the early 80's when things really sucked. But nothing has sucked as much as this."

He's about to be laid off. On Friday. The first lay off he's ever faced in more than 30 years of being the very best surveyor, with the very best firm in the region. In the last two years, his company has let go of six crews (3 men each.) His crew is the last to go, and they have only lasted this long b/c they were able to bill hours to cover their own salaries. But the last 3 months, jobs have been pulled (and I am talking jobs with broken ground) and now there is nothing - NOTHING - in the pipeline for the spring (which is their boom season.)

I have known this man a long time, and I have never seen him not have an angle. He's completely out of angles now, and doesn't know what to make of this. It's completely new territory.

And just for reference, this isn't Detroit or California. This is the Research Triangle region of North Carolina - Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill - an area that by all reports is "still strong". If this is strong, God Help the rest of the nation.

I lost my job at a software company in September (have never been unemployed before except willfully) and have not been able to get so much as returned phone call. No interviews. The start-up I worked for (which is funded, BTW) has let go of 7 of its 19 employees since they shed me. All customer support, marketing, and business development. And they have not signed a single deal since May of 2009.

Most of my friends - all in their early forties - have faced similar fates. We were higher income earners and top performers in High Tech, but now we're now no longer essential. I have friends who have kids in private schools, mortgages, and are still paying college loans for advanced degrees (MBAs mostly) who are now essentially unemployable. I guess I was lucky b/c I saw this coming and realigned my lifestyle, paid off my debt, and have been spared the really scary stuff. I also have family so I will not be homeless, no matter what. ... But it's hard watching so many good people suffer with no light at the end of the tunnel. We bought into a lie, and now the truth is emerging. It's a hard reckoning.

I survived the "downturn" of 2000/2001. This is something different. This is a paradigm shift. And we're just guinea pigs, waiting to see what the next "test" is.

It's bad out here. Wish I was in East Texas with a bit of paid-for dirt and a collection of like-minded friends.

You know, when I started this site in 1997, I got maybe a hundred people a day visiting... if that.  Been called every name in the book, damned and cursed all along the way.

 

This week it's averaging 65,000 a day.  The damns and the curses have died down, too.

 

Planning your life to deal with the long-term swings in socioeconomic history may sound like something of a 'whack job" project, but in the end it's about the surest way to maintain independence I can think of.

 

Meantime, one can never be too prepared or too ready.  Universe doesn't send out invitations...it just presents opportunities for learning...stack the deck while you can.

 

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Tuesday February 23, 2010

Housing's Hurt Healing - Somewhat

If there's a good barometer of how housing is doing (government pronouncements aside, since they seem never to correlate well to observed reality) it's the Case-Shiller/S&P Housing Index.

 

Depends how you want to look at their data though.  One headline says "Housing prices in 20 U&.S. cities rose for seventh month" but when you read into it, the numbers are still at Depression era levels and down 30% from two-year ago levels.

 

Time to buy real estate yet?  Not as I see it since we still have commercial real estate problems coming to work through and that will almost certainly ripple.

 

Global Warming's Curious Passing

How's this one:  A senator (Inhofe of Oklahoma) wants to have Al Gore come back to Washington to be grilled about climate change.  Inhofe is asking the DOJ to look for possible criminal acts that may be related.

 

But it gets even better: Judicial Watch has sued under Freedom of Information Statues for records on "Climate Czar Carol Browner's role in crafting policy."

 

Get'cher popcorn...get'cher peanuts....sodas?  Sodas?

 

The World Series of Social Engineering Factions is underway!

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BTW - winter sucks more'n usual this year in Europe where bad weather is blamed on falling consumer confidence.

 

Don't suppose you've done enough celestial to figure that Berlin is 52.6 North latitude.  that'd be like living 200 miles north of Winnipeg, roughly.

 Or maybe halfway between Edmonton and Calgary Alberta...or 300 miles north of Ulaanbaatar Mongolia.... so if you really need more to worry about, consider what would happen to Europe if the Gulf Stream were to shut down the thermohaline conveyor....oh - and do that in German.

 

Those 'scare commercials' are still on TV though...

 

Numbers Update

Check back later on this morning after I have a chance to think through the latest in the Case-S&P housing numbers due out today along with the CONsumer CONfidence numbers...

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Good numbers out of Sears today...which means little more than good management since revenue was down as were (look surprised here since we're past options expiration now) the market futures when I looked.

 

A Curious Bot Hit

Remember a while back  (June 2009 to be exact) I told you about this odd thing in the predictive linguistics about the 'disappearance meme which would come percolating up into awareness?  then there was the Rockefeller feller that 'disappeared' in Australia if memory serve3s.

 

Well, the meme/meta set is making its return with:

• A California family goes missing (four people)

• A Canadian nuclear scientist vanishes with 'absolutely no trace'

• And actor Andrew Koenig has gone missing, although police are hoping he's just lying low for a while.

 

Also around the edges of that meta set we could plug in the reports that a large number of police chiefs are resigning which has been making the rounds on various discussion boards like Rumor Mill News for the past month or so... along with an odd number of CEO/CFO types who may see something...oh...ugly coming along.

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Naturally, people of a conspiratorial mind will no doubt have picked up on our note off SpaceWeather yesterday that there was an odd very long 'filament' of energy popping out of the sun and this morning SpaceWeather has a follow up on this "Great Filament".

 

Quick, yee of worrywart monkeymind...a review of Charles Hyder's 1965 paper "Winking Filaments and Prominence and Coronal Magnetic 'Fields is urgently needed today.

 

That oughta 'bout drive a stake through the odds of getting any real work done today, LOL.  Especially if you extend the 'filaments' to the ideas of Jim McCanney about electrical charge within the solar system.  Ask yourself is there any know limit to the length of such filaments, or could they reach out all the way to orbital distances of planets and do a little 'Lincoln wire welder' action on Earth? 

 

Psst:  Wanna buy a surge protector?

 

Data Breaches

On the other hand, solar filament threats are maybe not today's issue.  could be something more contemporary like the FTC warning more than 100 companies of a breach involving data theft.

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Know what I see when I read this story and how the government is not saying what specifically is involved?  I see government at its Nanny State worst.  If there's a big hole in personal security out there, I'd sure as hell like to know about it - and likely, so would you.  No.  Instead we get what?  More data/internet fear-mongering.  Like the recent simulation of cyber attack stuff wasn't enough!

 

My friend, one way to read events is that government and MSM (MainStreamMedia) are just doing their part.  But on the other side, part in what exactly?  Isn't this just a Jim Dandy setup for a frontal attack on free Internet use which would bring with it registration and licensing?

 

Kiss off another couple of paragraphs of Constitution when it comes and try to remember who warned you.

 

Waiting for that War Dept.

"Iran to 'hide nuclear plants inside mountains'.

 

Sounds dumb to me given this earthquakes in the area.  Oh look!  Here's one this morning in southern Iran.  Say...you didn't turn on HAARP to go looking for underground bases again, did you?  Not related?  Why shore podnah.

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Speaking of which, forty including some retired general types have been busted in Turkey for plotting a coup d'état. Lots of finger-pointing at outside influences....but that's to be expected, I suppose.

 

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Coping: A New Kind of AARP

There's a thoughtful story by the AP's Matt Sedensky under the headline "Marijuana use by seniors goes up as boomers age"  that sets my marketing mind afire.  Why not set up something called the AAARP - the Aged American Association of Roach Passers?

 

Why now that I'm older than most speed limits (yeah, a bad pun that, but it's early...) and I've been eyeing a Master Gardener classes for Elaine and I, my mind comes around to thinking through some of the delectables that could be grown by a serious-minded garden club member. 

 

Besides the obvious genetic work that could be applied to some of strains of you-know-what there are plenty of other potentials to be explored.  We get enough rainfall around here that certain mushrooms can take off.  And, what about 'catnip tea'  (some people smoke the stuff I hear for about a 15-minute buzz).

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Everyone is born with a certain set of gene pool optimizations already done by our forefathers (and foremothers),  To the extent that we eat those items that were in our historical backgrounds, our bodies ought to do pretty good.  Staying away from sugar makes sense for most, and maybe one reason Elaine & I don't look nearly our....you known... is that we have eaten a life-long diet of things that tended to be unprocessed and/or close to natural.

 

Elaine's been close to a vegetarian who likes to spend time working out...and with her genetics it's worked out great.  My own background being Scottish and Danish finds me liking a modest amount of alcohol with meals along with plenty of cold weather veggies, meats and rich meat dishes.

 

You can find outfits which for a reasonable fee (under $500) will do a pretty much complete workup on your personal DNA. Genelex up in Seattle figured me I'm a T6 haplotype, and pointed to a kind of northern Aryan ancestry...which was fine because I didn't have to change diet much.  It also fit with some wanderlust and a sense of being a 'hunter'.

 

Other outfits (like DNA Tribes.com) offer a series of add-in for particular geographic/racial subgroups that may be useful.

 

Point (in passing) is that if you eat what you were specifically bred to eat by generations of DNA optimizing 'in the wild' then seems reasonable that by eating in a similar way today, you might have a better chance of living a younger/longer life.

 

Danes do not live on high calories gravies alone, however, and the use of spices seems to be a whole art form in and of itself.  So, if I can figure a way to do the Master Gardener program this year, one thing's for certain: It will be coupled with a lot of research into the native plants in the area my ancestors came from and then trying to eat at least some of that along the way.  And if that includes supplementation with herbs I've ignored for 60-some years, well, never too late to improve my diet.

 

ET's Before Us

Speaking of ancestry (and maybe this should be in the WuJo files) I neglected to zoom in on the article in Archeology Daily about how "Prehistoric UFO and ET images found in remote cave in India".

 

This is being more or less seriously discussed as adding weight to the ancient astronauts kind of buzz that been around since Von Daniken's book came out back when?

 

The quintessential EvD book is  Chariots of the Gods came out in 1968 although if you want to do a quick catch-up I hear his latest book "History Is Wrong " which is on my reading list along with a pile of others.

 

Too much knowledge, too little time.  Although, thanks to the economic slowdown (or is this what a collapse is like at the start?) I have more time for reading which is a good thing and a bad thing.  Depending on whether I'm writing  a report for Peoplenomics.com subscribers or dealing with my bills...  Bet you can't guess at my preferred activity...

 

A Malware Tool

I'd like to give a hit of the hat this morning to the reader who sent me the website www.malwarebytes.org.  They have both a free and paid version of what seems to be a good malware catcher.

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You know how old I am?  I am sooo old I can remember computers before there were viruses!  Damn, dude...that there is old...

 

I've gone from "What's a virus?" to two firewalls, a good anti-virus program, the Maxa Cookie Manager, and now the best malware product I've been able to find (Adaware and SpybotSD are also at the ready).  Hell, any more, I need a security server.

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While I was lucky enough to recover from a recent Restore Point, I was lucky - that doesn't always work....A reader suggested running a virtual machine session inside of Win 7 - not a bad idea...that way damage can be limited.

 

Is there no end to the criminal mind?  I'm cursed being on this side of the law...but only an issue as long as there's laws, I suppose...for now it's all good.

 

Another Spellin' Complaint

Hmmm...where's my Hunter S. Thompson stylebook?

"Been reading for a couple years now.. thanks for all the great info and entertainment!

The 4 monitor setup is slick... sorry for the virus..

With all that sophistication, it seems like your computer would come with a spell check..

I'd really like to refer a bunch of people to your site, but when it looks like amateur hour because of so many misspellings, I'd rather not. My clients would end up thinking we're both dummies within a few sentences.

Just run a spell check man! Why the mental block? Texas pride or something?

Several pointy things in my own defense here.  1) I run on a really tight deadline...been writing and researching since 5 AM and have to hit a publishing time.  I sometimes go back and correct errors about 15-minutes later.

 

Then there's the problem of finding which dictionary is in use by FrontPage...never have found it.  There's a couple of misspelled words in the custom dictionary (yeah my bad).

 

Next I drag out my broadcast background.  Hells bells, I did radio and spelling (let alone punctuation) was never important...more like crib notes anyway.

 

Most times I try to run spell check, but context checking is a different thing.  Once in a while there's even an intentional misspelling that I think (for Lord know what reason) I think is cutesy/fun/punny, yada yada.

Besides, if I got too formal about this, the whole thing would lose its NT Times Crossword aspect and would that be any phun?

Oh yeah...don't tell your clients you read my site...just your friends.

Time's up... hitting upload

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February 22, 2010

Promises, Promises

With apologies to Billy Wilder, I.A.L. Diamond, Burt Bacharach, Hal David, and Neil Simon - who wrote, scored, and choreographed the 1960 musical film "Promises, Promises" - the knowledgeable viewer of contemporary events will note that there's a seeming rhyme to what's going on off on the healthcare (infinitely expanding government) front as the Obama crew is about to roll out Healthscare 3.0.

 

As we've discussed many times around here, America has a serious problem which (so far) no one in Washington has mentioned new solutions for; namely the supersaturation of the consumer economy.  Which is fundamentally why...

a) The NY Times wrote this weekend of the national "new poor" under the headline "Millions of unemployed face years without jobs" and...

b) Why Iran's PressTV headlines "US Fed: US Unemployment remains high for years..." and...

c) It's why "Governors seek attention, funds..." and...

d) It's why the Denver Post editorialized that "We don't need a second stimulus" because "Congress must not rush into a second stimulus bill. Instead, taxpayers deserve a reasonable plan for eventually trimming the federal debt, which is swiftly becoming unsustainable.

Obviously, I could go on all day long with this laundry list, but you get the idea:  We are saturated with debt and there's only two ways out of this economic sewer pipe:  We either get people consuming again which can be done with new '"gotta have 'em" products, or massive public works projects (among which we count healthscare, BTW) OR we need to whittle down government's size and shrink government down to levels that are roughly half what they are now.

 

That's the reason that the healthcare bill is so key:  It's an open-ended spending program and job-creation-on-demand tool.  Need more jobs?  Release some secretly engineered bug, fill up healthcare and jam up the need for workers and tadah!  Magic economic solution.

 

Not that this is original thinking on my part...it dates back to the Report From Iron Mountain: On the accessibility and desirability of peace",  which is still debated as to whether it was a "hoax or betrayal".  Nevertheless, a serious study betrayed to nongov types or a hoax makes little difference, since it reveals in stark contrast the sociopolitical realities with far more elegance and context that you can find in all of Washington today, except maybe on Ron Paul's staff.

 

So as to make following along in the libretto easier, when you read "New Obama health proposal would limit rate hikes" what you should read is how the administration is trying to buy a solution to the jobs crisis (which stretches out almost infinitely into the future.

 

I don't envy them:  They've got to find a jobs program that will be acceptable to the PowersThatBe that put Washington in office to do their bidding. 

 

While the right solution from the standpoint of a strong, independent America would be a massive 're-industrialization program' which would return tariffs to their tradition role of maintaining workable wages at home (and keeping government funded and income tax rates low) and would incent industry to invest here instead of in Mumbai, Bangalore, or some third world shithole where even cheaper labor than you can be found, this administration and congress whose strings are pulled by the globalists don't have the vision to see the 'other path'.

 

The reason is clear:  That other path would empower home-grown Americans...but that would come at an unacceptable cost:  The globalists would have to share or lose power. 

 

Ain't acceptable, so in the meantime, we're left with what? 

 

Promises, promises.

 

Quack

Who is ducking reporters by not holding a press conference in 215 days?  Quack.  I mean Obama.  Why, that's even better than GWB...or is that worse than GWB.  Where's my coffee?

 

Joe on the Road

Say, with Joe Biden scheduled to visit Israel next month, we gotta be wondering if he's going for final 'go plans' or will he be there for the post mortem of an Iran attack?

 

I assume you saw where Israel is touting a new drone fleet that can put sensor technology over targets at Iran's kind of range?

 

Iran's not letting up, either...with plans to 'build two more nuclear sites this year' so there's no way this dance is going to end happily, it's still when not if...

 

Give the market a turnaround to the downside over a couple of weeks and a quick war would be just what the (spin) doctors ordered... keep people from seeing  the gaping jaws of Depression Two for what it is...fyne.

 

'Crash heard 'Round the World', Redux

DHS boss Janet Napolitano says domestic 'terrorism' is a big concern.  We infer that to mean not government's behavior, but the behavior of people reacting to government...

 

Good discussion of this labeling problem in the NY Times.

 

In the background, this may bolster efforts to track people's whereabouts (and maybe more) without their consent or a warrant via cell phones...

 

Somehow, no one seems ready to admit that government action may have spawned our first domestic/homegrown suicide bomber.  That's a hard reality shift to swallow, to be sure, but that's certainly one way to cast it as the 'revolution meme' is taking hold globally as people reassert rights to contain 'governance'.  I imagine economic issues will keep government in check at some level...

 

Speaking of Which

You saw where Citi Bank is telling (Texas) holders of NOW accounts that the bank reserves the right to delay withdrawals for up to 7-days?

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A couple of sharp-eyed readers wonder if that's legal, since the reason that banks are open the day after Thanksgiving is so we don't get four banks closed days back to back...

 

This is just (one more) reason why I've been suggesting that you get several months of cash in hand.  That's not radical.  Try reasonable given that banks are edging that-a-way...

 

Climate Change: Unplugged

Well, looking at the forecas5t here in the Land Cell Phones Forgot, I see where we're going to get another 4-inches of snow, looks like tomorrow night.  Which is fine with us.  Birds singing is annoying...I just forgot how much so.

 

If you get a change to look at weather stats for Dallas/Fort Worth you'll see they have about 7-times more snow than 'normal'...and that's before any more this season.

 

It's against this background that we notice the UK story about how "Climate Scientists withdraw journal claims of rising sea levels."

 

Damn!  Here we bought this place 200-miles inland and 600 feet up with plans to open a marina.  Now what?

 

Headlines of the Day

"Democrats worried about Obama track record".  I didn't know he turned out for track... (rimshot)

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"Aids: Is the end in sight?"  Say what?   (audience groans)

 

Environmentally Bankrupt Dept.

Seems Japan will defend their 'whaling rights'...  Yeah, yeah, sure, whatever.  You of course know there's a huge scientific demand for whale oil...huh?

 

Do I have the word 'gullible' written on my forehead?

 

The Weak Ahead

Gold could pop a bit as players try to cover positions this week as options come off.  Tomorrow we get the Case/S&P 20-city housing numbers...a reality check in a sea of statistical jetsam.

 

Consumer confidence is also out tomorrow while the UM figures come out Friday along with GDP and Durables.

 

Not much to look for, except after run-up Monday (something of a habit here lately) the market could turn very sharply down. 

 

No sign of life preservers for bulls until the Dow makes it back above 10,725...otherwise, see you at 9,500 ...or lower...

 

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Coping: Virus Nightmare

I have some mighty unkind things to say about a purported ,anti-virus program called Antivirus Win 7 2010.  Nasty lil piece o crap that tried to sneak onto my system.  Not happy with the slimy way this stuff gets around.

 

If you ever get a prompt to install software that mentions Antivirus Win 7 2010 don't do it!  Took a half hour out of my morning today...picky it up from one of the sites where I was trying to find the original lyrics to Promises, Promises.

 

So if this morning's report is a little short - and I'm a bit 'pissier' than usual, that's why.  If I knew where to send these SOB's a bill for my time, I'd send it.

 

Makes me go back to one of the cornerstones of the UrbanSurvival.com philosophy:

• Installation of unauthorized software should be a capital crime.  And

• Make "System Restore Points" religiously.

 

That's how I got rid of this POS.  I did a complete system scan, found it, but it had propagated...so hit a system restore point from last week (I will have to reinstall a piece or two of software, but that's a minor twitch compared to that crapware I just got rid of.

 

Set many system restore points when your system is running tip top - and set one every time you put in legit software. 

 

Once you've got those (even if I takes a little time for your coffee to soak in) just remember that the system restore points back up new (malicious) registry entries and you're good to go again. 

]

Don't even ask if this feels like Monday...

 

Not Too Much Truth...

turns out those UK UFO files I told you about last week were edited for publication...and you need to read what was editted here in the Independent...

 

The Sky IS Falling

A Reader sent in this:

"George,

just woke up from a dream where the salient points were: - total net shutdown - relatives waiting for news from Obama about "the surprise from the sky" - they were not pleased nor eagerly awaiting it.

Meh, right?

Well take a look here: http://www.spaceweather.com/ 

I wonder what that freaking huge filament thingy is going to do when it falls back to the surface of the sun?

don't know, but if the sun reaches out and takes down all kinds of electronics and all, look at it this way:  You won't have to get up for work for a couple of days.  See?  World ends, we get to sleep in for a change...

Nice.

 

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