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8:30 daily This site is supported by subscriptions: For additional content, please subscribe to Peoplenomics. . Content mirrored at: www.independencejournal.com, Kindle (.MOBI) version here
Note: this being the weekend, the new content is found over at www.peoplenomics.com - will be posted around 8 AM CDT.
If you'd like access, please feel free to subscribe. It's a quirky business model, but subscriptions to Peoplenomics ($40/year) is what keeps the free UrbanSurvival site online. The Saturday edition is much like a weekday edition about here while the Sunday report is normally an in-depth treatment of a particular aspect of the news and economic events. This weekend, for example, we'll be comparing asset classes and how they may perform over the next year...should be fun. If you don't have the $40 (or the inclination), you're welcome to come back Monday morning about 7:55 AM CDT for another dose of finance with a side of the strange.
The "R" Word and Socialism If you were looking to put a label on a good chunk of the news stories out there about how congress is behaving (or misbehaving, depending on your view) and the what the public is reaction, the words 'rebel' or 'revolt' would certainly be one while 'socialism' might well be the other.
A few examples under each heading? Starting with the 'r' words:
One reason people are upset? Economic impacts of all the 'change' under the headline "The Silent Entitlements Monster: Social Security, Medicare And Interest On The Debt Will Gobble Up Every Single Tax Dollar By 2020." Pay it no mind, I'm sure I'm nothing more than a worry-wart.
Then over on the 'socialism side we read how:
The Heritage Foundation says the tax hiking isn't over yet as the "Reconciliation Bill adds even More Taxes.." Gee...look surprised, would you?
Saving a Few Meantime, the White House is set to outline a plan later today which will expand somewhat on its foreclosure-prevention efforts by reducing balances owed by some borrowers.
And where will the money for this gem come from? Another $14 billion out of the TARP program.
Seems to me what's really going on is an effort to take people who are already upside down in their payments, and write the notes down to about the break-even point so people will stop walking away from their debts...but whether that works, and where the housing decline is over, that's like putting a dollar on the progress slots and hoping, near as I can figure.
But marketing, marketing, marketing, eh?
GDP Figures Newest numbers to munch - not necessarily believe - just munch:
Toss in deal on Greece, and optimism that the market may be soaring toward the 11,000 level on the Dow and you've got the makings for an end-of-quarter blow off rally today that could be a marvel. Remember, though, Q1 ends next week and then's maybe a time to sober up and rethink things a bit and lock in those long-term gains.
"Sell in May and Go Away" is not too far off now...
The Middle East Mistake? There's a report today that the Iranian foreign minister is urging the Muslim countries (Organization of Islamic Countries) foreign ministers to meet to take a stand and action on the latest Israeli expansion of the settlements.
The J-Post reports that "Netanyahu convenes inner cabinet" to discuss Washington be mightily displeased about the settlements, but do I expect any change of course? Not hardly. You kidding?
Still, keep an eye on things as "Arab League summit to focus on Jerusalem."
Oh, and a "Russian oil major pulls out of Iran"....wonder if they know something we don't - yet? What if the topic for Netanyahu's inner circle has nothing to do with Jerusalem? And the Israeli Post Office has the gas masks out, remember that from last fall's headlines?
Shooter's Notebook You might want to read up on the latest on the shooting sites as "Military Cartridge Brass Destruction 2010 -Round 2" is getting underway. --- Meantime, speaking of metals, the CFTC poured cold water on concerns voiced by gold, silver, and copper traders that hedge funds were controlling prices by taking large positions. --- I haven't been watching this too closely, I'll admit, but funny to me how hard caps on banks and speculators for energy seems to be a good thing while caps on copper and the PM's are somehow bad?
Help me here, by telling me again why the conference call blanked out while GATA president Bill Murphy was about to comment??? WTF's up with that?
Say, you don't suppose that it was because GATA has a whistleblower who is willing to testify that he was invited by a Big Bank to take part in a precious metals price suppression scheme, do you? Something the CFTC seems to have gone deaf, dumb, and blind on?
You will want to read for sure: "Whistleblower exposes JP Morgan's Silver Manipulation Scheme" over at zerohedge. --- Too much work? Well, Pappy also taught me that rising copper prices either meant an economic boom -- or war -- is just ahead and gosh, for the life of me I can't picture a boom...
While millions of people around the world will be taking part in "Earth Hour" this weekend by turning off their lights, you don't really need to do anything, since near as I can figure, the economy, much higher taxes, and rising utility rates will make participation in 'lights out' for mandatory for millions more over the next year or two, anyway for those who don't voluntarily do so this weekend... But hey! I'm the guy who's been advocating voluntary lifestyle reductions for how long? --- But we continue to see power wielded by a certain 767-flying member of congress which I see as just a grand version of "Do as we say, not as we do..."
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Coping: Reserve Currency Delusions As the US currency keeps on being hollowed out by debt, and we read occasional hand-wringing over how the US dollar may lose reserve currency status, it's easy now and then to see the future clearly and know the outcome in advance.
Most people don't read long-term socioeconomic trends into anything other than what's dished out as the lead story in the six o'clock news, but here's a really interesting one to ponder and there are some startling inferences to be had.
Start by reading "London to Beijing...by Rail?"
Then sit back for a moment and think through what that might mean. Some examples that come to mind:
You see? Once again, there's usually a lot of 'other agenda' stuff being pushed forward when an emotional hot-button like healthscare is being pressed.
As to whether the US will lose it's 'global reserve currency roll'? That's only a matter of time. The smart money went to Asia back when Nixon opened things up...1974, or so, wasn't it?
Headlines like grandiose Chinese rail plans are a symptom, not a cause of America falling behind. Countries are sometimes easily assessed by looking at their dreams. If you were to ask me, "What is the dream in America?" I'd say 'stealing retirements, getting everyone in debt to the banksters, and mandatory healthcare which will make government and the pharma lobby even richer and more powerful than they are now..." Is that something to get excited or amped about? Not hardly.
Chinese goals involve building - not necessarily further enslaving - their Middle Class. China's already surveying the moon and now they're coming out with energy efficient (which means also affordable) plans to move business people around.
I'm not saying that putting a little money into Yuan denominated investments might be a better deal than buying US Treasuries, but the thought does cross my mind now and then. What's good for the hedge funds might be good for the working class.
Besides, like the classic
book "Positioning:
The Battle for Your Mind
Just something to think about and where's the Big Goals for America?
WuJo: That Magic Bill In yesterday's column I was discussing the events at the check-out counter where a woman was ready to pay cash but suddenly the bill was covered? Easily explained by many readers - here's a typical heads-up:
Another reader shared this:
Nor me, either. More WuJo: An Even Stranger Report OK, nothing other-worldly there...but then comes a new case for us to consider:
What?" I found myself thinking...need more details...which the reader was kind enough to provide - like "What was the recipe - what was this woman doing that distorted time in this manner?
All of which gets me to wondering: Say, you don't think those pyramids in the Middle East meant something more than a long-lasting burial tomb that happens to have a shaft lined up on the star Sirius, do you?
What IF there are a series of mental images to be had from such things that can turn off/turn on, or in some other way moderate human behaviors?
I can't remember reading any clinical studies about such things, but "What IF" there were a series of mental constructs that you could just hold in your mind's eye for a few moments that could turn on - or turn off - some part of super-human power?
Not just the usual PMA (positive mental attitude) stuff...but I mean really warp reality a bit.
Some ideas I will get around to trying out one of these days:
As our reader seems to suggest, mentally putting the whole world inside a mental pyramid while personally staying outside of it to warp time so I can get more done than mere mortals.
Maybe there are, for people of certain genetics, constructs like 'thinking about a jaguar' that would make it possible to physically run longer/faster?
What is thinking about the Sun actually made you intellectually brighter? I mean wouldn't it be weird if you had two control groups of equal intelligence and you did nothing more than put a sun image between each question for the mind to focus on briefly to keep it amped up - what if that alone could change how one group of people tested for IQ or job skills?
Like I say, I haven't seen any books where this kind of thing has been tested in a lab-like setting, but seems to me that it would be something that a whole flock of psychologists could get hold of and actually do some very interesting work.
Or, maybe this kind of thing is at some rarely-shared level of Secret Societies? Can't say.
But what I can say is that I got up a whole hour later than normal this morning, did a little framing mentally based on the pyramid thinking and here it is only 7:30 and I have already turned out a column and have several minutes to spare before the new government report on GDP comes ouit and I will likely post today's report 10-minutes early.
Is that because I set expectations for myself higher? Was it because I was consciously warping time & events, or just because I wasn't screwing around as much as normal.
Not really sure, but seems there's something there and if you have any books to refers us to, or personal experiences with mind-setting before events, please send them along.
A few mere mortals are looking for clues and we may have picked up the scent of something here... ----- Send your comments to george@ure.net Shop Till You Drop Department: Peoplenomics This Week The 'Core Competency Culture' Problem A funny thing happened on the way to the future. Cliff had the 'pipes open' [spiders running to catch language change around the SOTTC report] and started to notice a growing body of 'fear' language about something which reduces (after a little software 'simmering' to reduce essences to half, or so) to fears of an emergent 'core competency culture' which seems to have the PTB pretty worried. My, ain't that strange? Anything that scares the 'establishment' is important to us...so off we go tromping through the literature to find...what? More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Need Logon Assistance? Click here. Cookie Video The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:
Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
"Live on $10,000" A Year Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Pass It On A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings. If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..." ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here.
Thursday March 25, 2010 Cognitive Dissonance For Breakfast OK, so answer me this: We've been reporting (dutifully so, based on gov'mint statistics') that the personal savings rate has been going up.
But then along come figures this morning from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that says the State personal Incomes actually decreased in 2009:
All of which is hard to swallow, since the same outfit, BEA also claims the savings rate has been up around 4% for the past year: So maybe this is why my lone B grade in my undergrad degree was in statistics: How come on the one hand BEA is claiming the savings rkate is up, while admitting that the state incomes were down 1.9%.
Contributions are welcome, although they will be subjected to a rigorous sniff test. Damn, I must be simple minded...or maybe this is what liberating people from home ownership does, yah think?
Where's my ViseGrips? Need a good pinch here to start the day...
Deflation or Treasury Bubble? I've been trying to make up my mind over the past week or so, whether the huge increase in the Federal Reserve's M1 money sup-ply figures (up 9.5% Year-on-Year) but without much apparent inflation is really because there's 7-8% under systemic deflation going on, or whether there's something else at work.
The 'something else' could be that all that freshly Minted dough is feeding the New Bubble - which could be an asset bubble in US Treasuries which is well-explained here.
To be sure, there are some powerful arguments to be made in the deflationist's camp. For one, banks are sitting on mountains of REO (real estate owned by the banks) and while under more normal conditions, they'd be letting that stuff go for pennies on the dollar. But, because that would really get the snowball to hell rolling the government regulators have turned a blind eye to how banks are accounting for their holdings in this area not wanting to upset the apple cart too much and cause an acceleration of crash dynamics.
And, it's not a bad thing for the banks, one supposes, and we keep hearing reports of people who have been able to negotiate payments of as little as a few hundred dollars a month on mortgages that were formerly in the $1,000+ range in order that the banks involved wouldn't have to slide the underlying properties over into the 'non-performing loan' category. ---- Canada, which is not playing the treasury asset bubble game as much is expecting inflation to run higher than expected. Either that, or they're just more honest (less hedonic) in their reporting.
Healthcare Reruns The action on the healthscare bill in the senate has seen enough changes that the bill will have to go back over to the House. And, care to bet me that the republicorps will try to gut more sections of the bill before it goes? All of which is leading me to suspect there's a backstory to all this and maybe it goes something like this:
With television ratings falling, there was enough of an audience booster in the healthcare debate that more is good - so let's run it up the flagpole again and see how the overnights look...maybe sell some more ads...
Then there's the talk about a constitutional amendment in South Carolina to nullify Obamacare...a hearing there this morning.
Sorry Gordo Department And I'm emphasize it's not 'sorry' like 'so sorry to hear...' it's sorry as in "You sorry sack o' sh..." as the UK Telegraph headlines that Gordo the Gold-Seller Brown has been ordered to explain all the gory details around why he sold tons of Britain's gold when it was....and you gotta love this... under $300 an ounce. Now, of course, we could speculate that was a payback to the PowersThatBe in return for putting him into a position of power, but that would be speculation... --- Difficult times for Gordo...however, it's like Winston Churchill once said (reminds our Luxembourg Midas-in-Training): "A pessimist makes difficulties of one's opportunities and an optimist makes opportunities of one's difficulties."
True that, Winnie, but we may be about to see how tough times reveal character, not build it, near as I can figure.
California: Bee Gone Pull up a chair while I run off on a round of California-bashing. Remember the story of the mysterious die-off of honey bees? Well, back more than ever now out in California. --- Hard telling what the biggest dangers to America lurk in California anymore - they have so many to choose from.
Lemme see, we've got State bankruptcy looming, and part of that is due to a 12.5% unemployment rate according to Labor Department figures. But, don't stare at those figures too long, otherwise you'll be asking ugly questions you don't really want answered, like "How come if most states show worsening year on year employment there's recovery talk?"
Then there's the question of whether California should count illegal immigrants in the Census...but in a world upside down ('case you hadn't noticed) counting illegals is good since it gets California more dough from the feds...who in turn get it from you and me...
And, of course, no proper Thursday morning of California-bashing would be complete without a good news/bad news on water. Good news is the state will get more water from the feds, but the bad news on the flip-side is that the lack of snowpack in the Pacific Northwest increases the chance for brown-outs and rolling blackouts this summer.
One redeeming note: the measure to legalize marijuana will be on the November general election ballot.
And speaking of California politics: Looks like the state's bidding wear for the governorship will be up to nearly $1-billion. The choices seem to line up as a career politician versus a former eBay CEO...that'd take some thought.
The high bid pricing (which is what elections have turned into, especially since the Supremes (as in Court, not Motown) decided there's no limit to corporate strong-arming of outcomes...led a reader to ask "You sure the reason that these people spend so much isn't so they can 'get a ticket' for 2012-type events which in the movie were $1-billion Euros each?" --- Now, don't take it personally if you're a Golden Stater. Just saying the Bees may be smarter than the humans and they've just had it and they're getting out early.
Here Come Nanofoods Oh-oh. As if shopping wasn't dangerous enough, now the arrival of "nanofoods' is coming out - and lookie here: The stuff isn't being labeled! Which is why eating what you personally grow is going to be increasingly important... Second helping of long-chain aromatic hydrocarbon mix with that?
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Coping: More Shameless Ham Radio & SWL Promotion
Although I've got a few tweaks to make on my new ham radio antenna which we pulled up with me on the tractor and our local expert help backstopping with a 4X4, to keep the tower from going past center, I have to say the antenna has been more than worth the effort.
Been busy as the Dickens around the ranch (it is spring and there's the garden, office expansion, fence to move, and the list just goes on for miles & miles and the odd client job) but wow - what a difference the beam is compared to wire antennas.
Unfortunately - and this
seems strange since I've been a 'wire antenna guy for almost 50
years - the high gain rotatable antenna (ATB-34 with 40-meter
add-on) takes a certain amount of
challenge out of operating on HF banks. Now, even
in the midst of a pile-up (where dozens of stations are calling)
a DX (distant/far-away) station, I usually manage to work them
on the first or second try now. Talking to people in
places like Sweden, Ireland, and Peru is simply a matter of
rotating the antenna that-a-way and....Sheesh. Like
shooting fish. The tweaks to come are probably a week or two out - when my friend Rob comes down to visit and play with ham gear like we did, oh, 40-years ago. We'll change out the transmission line from RG-213 style to even lower-loss Times LMR-400, and maybe move the CCD antenna up to the top section which would put its apex at about 55 feet (from 35-40') and move the end supports for the CCD from 20' up to 40 feet...Then more LMR-400 and the 18-element wide-spaced Yagi for 2-meters goes up, too.
A shipment of new rotator cable should be here shortly from The Original Wireman.
Although the ARRL publications cover almost everything radio-ish, if there's one other book that I find useful when dealing with wires associated with ham radio (or anything else), it's Press Jones' "WireBook IV" - which has recently been updated to WireBook V and it's on my shopping list. Best $12-bucks a person can invest in reliable wiring. --- If you've ever stayed away because of the old Morse Code requirement of ham radio - relax - that's been gone for years. Just a matter of a written test and to get an entry-level license takes only an eight hour class... or you can just read a free, 40-page study guide by Dan Romanchik (KB6NU) which takes however long 40-pages and a cup of coffee, or two takes.
Once you've read the
study guide,
click over to the ARRL site and find a local ham radio club
(they're like weeds) and set up a time to take the --- Shortwave Listening (SWL) Department: I think I mentioned a while back that I returned the one shortwave radio I bought because it was DOA...ran for a few minutes and then just plain died. Amazon customer service came through just fine.
So I moved on to my
second choice which is really about as close to a 'soup-to-nuts'
radio as I've been able to find:
Kaito PLL Synthesized Dual Conversion SSB Shortwave Radio with
Recordable 256MB MP3 Player, KA1121
This radio seems to do almost everything. Yes, it covers longwave, but listening to directional radio navigation beacons is not my idea of a good time. The AM broadcast band coverage is very good and without an external antenna reception is fine. Yep, shortwave works well, and I don't know if the radio gets the information from an onboard database or whether it decodes something off the carrier, but a lot of the shortwave stations come up with identifiers on the LCD display: "CRI" turns out to be China Radio International - which has decent Asia-centric business news. And "CBC-RCI" decodes to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation's Radio Canada International" service.
In addition to the shortwave bands, the radio also covers FM and it has the NOAA weather channels, too. That's a might big plus in these parts for three or four months out of the year when a NOAA radio (preferably with alerts, which I haven't discovered yet on the Kaito if it has them) are very important.
Now some of the more exotic parts of the radio: It has a slide-out MP3 player. In other words, the front panel display of the radio is the front of the MP3 player and yes, it records up to three (best I can figure so far) 60-minute segments off the air. I'm thinking "Aha! I can record CoastToCoast with it and play it back at a less insane time of day!"
And then, as if that wasn't enough, turns out there is a CD and a USB cable included with the radio which the instructions seem to implycan download my favorite MP3's from my computer and not only will the Kaito MP3 player play them back, but with lyrics as well, if those are on the MP3.
Will I ever plug in a mic and do Karaoke with it? Doubtful. Too much glass would break.
Is this finally "The Perfect Radio"? Well...yes....and no.
Being an OF (olde fart) my eyes aren't that good and the LCD display on the .MP3 player is tiny.
And the unit is not waterproof. And the included 1300 MAHr batteries (3 of them) lasted only 15-minutes, so I have them charging again, but a set of 2000MAHr batteries (it takes 3) may be in the cards. I usually get dead batteries with everything...just my string of luck.
Then there's the manual. Nearly incomprehensible. Oh, sure, it lists out everything the radio does, but not in a way that makes sense to someone like me.
This is not a specific Kaito downfall, however. I have the same problem with all complex radios and electronics because they spend so much time and energy describing their functionality that it all blurs.
There's a whole category of products which have cropped up on eBay under the heading of quick references or 'mini-manuals' (like this one for the Yaesu VX-8R - a fine radio but not just a shortwave listening radio).
Seems manual writers are intent on providing verbose descriptions and on my Icom 746 ham rig which comes with a 150-page or so) manual, the only time I ever open the manual is for some computer interface esoterica. The rest of the time a $14 laminated full-color menu tree off eBay is how I get to 99.5% of the radio's functionality.
What I'll probably end up doing with the Kaito is writing my own 'user guide' which will be done in either 'menu tree' or 'function path' mode. --- I had the same problem with VisiCalc back in the early 1980's. The whole thing was totally incomprehensible when 'manualized' in the verbose manner popular with writers who get paid by the page.
Cell phones have at last gotten away from that. The way most are presented now is by function. In other words, rather than 18 paragraphs of text, a phone manual might say "Take a picture: Press picture>store."
Same problem in SWL radios. I need a list of functions like:
Anyway, there's a BIG business in demystifying manuals and procedures in almost everything, and once again this loops back to my "recipe approach to learning" because the idea is to transfer functionality, not use as many words as possible. No, I won't likely have time to do more than jot down a few important keystroke sequences, but you get the idea.
The problem of manual-writing has been of interest to me ever since I got my first VCR and couldn't for the life of me figure out how to get the damn thing to prerecord a TV show Hell, just setting the clock was a two-page exercise and all I was after was: Set clock: Press set, clock, enter hour, press set, enter minutes, press set, press channel, yada, yada... --- Oh, and if you don't want to read a manual, buy a shortwave radio, or set up an antenna (or maybe you have a terribly noisy location with lots of light dimmers and other noise sources that make shortwave listening unbearable), a reader sent a link to this software defined radio (SDR) online which can soak up hours and hours and hours of your time...provided you have a sound card, Java, and know how to click.
That oughta blow off most of your day.
I swear to God that someday I will get a visit from Homeland Security warning me about putting information like this on the web because I am singlehandedly destroying productivity in the global workplace.
Well, someone's gotta do it.
Say, here's one for you from the WuJo (where woo woo meets reality)...and this is interesting because it's another report of what seems like a 'reality jump':
Wow! I wrote the guy back and said "You sure?"
Holy smokes! I mention this because we seem to be getting more and more of these 'reality jumps' along with the arrival of hyperchroniac events which cliff explains on his website here. Tantalizing little bits of strangeness are about like this snip from a reader who's spouse is seeing bits of other reality: "...wife is giving me the "I see shadows of things that just disappear" thing lately. Sometimes she says the figures look clear to her as day. Like the other day when she told me she saw a 1 foot man that looked like he was on an elevator going up to the ceiling and then it just vanishes...." Yep. Remember the linguistic
stuff about how "surreal arrives" in here? What would
happen is parallel universes intersected in some way? Ever
stay up nights pondering that one? A good intro might be a
read of
The Haunted Mesa Wednesday March 24, 2010 How Good? How Durable? The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments for February is out:
Gold is down another $13 at press time and around and a read of my commodity broker's daily blog doesn't scream buy this or that. Several people think I'm nuts for thinking that gold will go down under $900 again before going skyward, but I'm sticking with my part inflation hedge (metals), equal deflation hedge (bonds) plans for now. When you get to be an old fart (OMG is 61 old?) you tend to get conservative. Why, I'm not even pushing the old 930 into triple digits very often, anymore. Damn, I'm slowing down...who'da thought?
I figure most of the durable increase was made by machines/automation, not more people going to work, but we shall see...
A Curious Rate Inversion A number of really smart people I know (my deflationist pal Jas Jain and my consigliore) have been telling me there's a lot more deflation to come in the economic system - and that inflation worries are far overblown. "Born and bred dopes" is how Jas refers to most investors; no slight of dopes, I hope. in fact, He sent me a note to share with you:
Done! The deflationist's case got considerable stronger on Tuesday when a Bloomberg story popped up reporting that "Ten-Year Swap Spreads Turn Negative on Renewed Demand for Risk." It's the first time anyone can remember this happening.
Not sure what it means, to be honest, but a couple of ideas rattling around in my head relate to the velocity of money collapsing. Yeah, under normal times in a high-speed trading economy, an increase of 9.5% in the Fed's M1 figure would be wildly inflationary. But, since we haven't got 10% inflation in the stores yet, I'm reluctantly forced to conclude that if prices are really up less than 3% YoY in the CPI, then a 9.5% increase in paper, netting only a 2-something inflation rate implies an ongoing 7-something percent deflation rate. --- Now put yourself in the position of a Wall Street Masters of the Universe type (Big house in the Hamptons, three assistants, corner office, and managing oodles of money - company limo to and from work...the whole shebang).
Where do you park money in today's environment where you have the least risk coupled with the highest return. I mean besides a 5-10 acres 'escape pod/recreational lot/small farm site to land on with your family?
Oh, yeah, you could buy MBS (mortgage-backed securities) but they have been pricey and besides, if the government stops looking the other way at bank booking of real estate owned, the residential housing market could go through another episode of 'Help, I've fallen and I can't get up...": which would have negative impacts on MBS-type products.
On the deflation side, you might be able to load up on companies that have a particular franchise to 'print money' even in bad times. Things like the food and utility stocks. But then you'd look at a chart of some really well managed companies like Proctor and Gamble and see they've gone from about $44 around the March 2009 low to a shade under $65 - which would be a lock on a nearly 50% one-year gain and at the long-term gains rate, to boot. "How high can they go?" you'd be asking yourself.
The answer is that P&G needs to break above the $73 range from back in 2008 and the Dow needs to break past new highs over 13,000 before that's a 'lock', so you park the money somewhere and maybe the 10-year swaps..."Hmmm..."
Since you're managing hundreds of millions, and you're not paid to pick losers, you put off the decision...too much thinking time for now. So you hit the intercom and tell your #2 assistant "Book me for two at Sardi's for lunch, wouldja and call tell Zolly to meet me there at one o'clock, would you? The rating cut in Portugal means the rest of the day could be sucky and we might as well go out on a good meal..."
The voice answers "Two for Sardi's at one, call Zolly..and do you want me to bring in that chart of the Texas Nutjob site?"
"Yeah sure...last time he reported 'good news' the whole market fell apart..."
Before you can even hang up, your #1 assistant is laying the chart of Mass Layoffs on your desk. "Here it is Boss...does it mean the recession is over - you see the 5th order poly trendline?"
"Naw - look at the linear trend - besides - I read the nutter site this morning and he claims there's no one left to fire. Here...add up the mass layoffs since March 2008...almost 5.2-million people. But, speaking of which, close the door and sit down. There's something HR wants me to talk to you about..."
Tan Tax If you go to the local spa to keep that tan from last summer going, or to put on a good base for this spring/summer, be ready to fork out 10% more as a federal tanning tax goes into effect today.
"What about those 'bronzing misters' where you don't really tan...you just get a light coating of a skin-friendly tan-colored chemical sprayed on that lasts for a week, or two?" you ask.
"Not sure what will happen on those, but it's technically not tanning because there's no UV applied, but relax, I'm sure the government will have a taskforce of 1,264 revenuers to figure out details like that one...."
Whose Security? The national (socialist) government is now proposing a National ID, High Tech Social Security Card" which is being touted as 'fraud proof'.
As one reader wonders "Whose security are they really worried about here - ours or theirs?" We hold these truths to be self-evident...
Weaponized Chili No kidding - an ultra-hot chili used in certain Indian cooking may end up being used as a specialized tear gas by the Indian military. Wonder how long before the spice trade is considered 'arms'?
---
Coping: Wuzzat Linguini or Linguistics? Nice email from a Mediterranean reader:
Last question first: You ought to ber able to meet like-minded Italians at the barricades and riots in mid-June - Mid-July or so.
As to the main thrust of the Zombie Finance article, that's something we'll get into in Peoplenomics this weekend, but it all comes down to the question "Model a world where the whole hoax of electronic 'money' and electronic 'debt' becomes universal. Then come, oh maybe 2012-14 we get a CME (coronal mass ejection from the sun) that outdoes even the events of 1859.
What events? A fine question...and plenty of details about it on the NASA web site from a 2003 story:
Now, we risk running the danger of writing a full-up Peoplenomics report here (and there is other stuff to cover, for sure) but consider the dream references that come through which are either directly (or think of it as archetypically linked) in this next related email:
Cliff has done a tremendous amount of reading on ancient cultures and one of the things he found in Jain (or was it Vedic...need more coffee to pull this out of the noise) was that in a previous end or ages kind of event, people were advised not to wear metallic things. And this was at a time when the world was popping off with so many 6.0 and larger quakes that just about everything was reduced to rubble...which is why the Chaldeans (if I've got this right) moved West (and set up shop in Babylon etc) and then settled in the Middle East brining their lore with them which was later enshrined (quite literally, I 'spose) in what are now the Western religions. Kind of a long answer for the reader in Italy, but it's an interesting line of inquiry, especially is there's a lot of RFID chipping...which if you read up on 'mark of the beast" warnings from Revelation 13:15-18 seem to me like they would bad pun coming, be ready) would probably hurt like the devil if they heated up/exploded in an ultra-high electric magnetic field just as might well accompany a massive CME larger than the 1859 event. Right hand oughta be easier to wrap than one's forehead I'd think, though I've already got tinfoil for that, so.... Sorry: Those Were NOT Pyramids in Iraq A couple of emails on point on this one:
Another on-site report:
(Alcohol reference removed for a reader who's coming up on the two-week mark). Anbd our third 'eye-on report':
Indeedy-deedy-doo. Well, so much for the ancient pyramids theory, although the rumors of antiquities teams persist... And then there's this:
Chaldeans walking West, dude...least that's a workman idea, huh? Bringing with them the prohibitions from the last time around and encoding them for future generations in religions... (spin up the X-Files theme?) Hey, BTW, our reader in Italy a ways back - might want to practice using more generalized language. Using a word like 'literated' (as in to get literate on something) can be used as a linguistic tracking tool. Only 9,600 page hits on Goog for that 'un. I mean if Tom Brown, Jr. was tracking language, know what I'm sayin? Smart People, And Their Desires Interesting story about how "Math genius Grigori Perelman refuses $1m price for solving Poincare Conjecture." Particularly cool quote: “I'm not a hero of mathematics. I'm not even that successful, that is why I don't want to have everybody looking at me.” Definitely time monk material. --- When I read about really, really smart people, I usually find it interesting that they enjoy simple things. Like Albert Einstein - who enjoyed sailing and, oh, and I suppose bedding Marilyn Monroe could be considered a pursuit... sailboat, Marilyn, pipe (depending what's in it maybe?) not a bad combo.
That, however, gets taken out of the history books and switched around in the public mind by coming up with the "Marilyn Monroe-Albert Einstein Illusion" graphics.
See how the substitution method of mind control works? Why, can't have the kids knowing that Albert was a bit of a 'playah" yo? Marketing, marketing, marketing, homey.
Tuesday March 23, 2010 Stand-Up Tuesday Too much seriousness of late. I need to get back to the roots of what makes economics work - a well-told joke.
When ABC reports on the speaker of the House, they note "Pelosi says Dems must stand their ground when there is no common ground." That's what we need, for sure, few more Yogi Berraisms in leadership.
I noticed where the Drudge Report headlined Pelosi as the "Most powerful woman in 100 years" - a label I'd be more inclined to give either Eleanor Roosevelt or Wonder Woman, but that's just me, I suppose.
Or, is it? You seen the poll ratings for Pelosi and Harry Reid? (rim shot) (tough room this morning)
When Your Fannie Heats Up No, not an aphrodisiac going to work. More likely another debt discussion. this could drag out for years.
When Your Hot I know it's been "global warming's a joke' since Copenhagen, but there's a chance that "Barbeque summer really is on the cards this year, says firm that predicted the big freeze."
And you thought all the weenies were in Washington... (so much for my efforts at humor - let me go back to the curmudgeon mode - ALT-F word...there, that's better)
But wait! Before I send in my 13-cents to join the Al Gore Fan Club (overpriced even at that) how about this note out of China that "Deserts shrinking by 7,585 KM annually in China"? Just desserts? (rim shot)
Google: Freedom
Google may be doing more for freedom of humans than the whole of the UN, seems to me. Leveling the information playing field lets people work things out, you know...
Oh Crap Yessir, a recall involving an anti-diarrheal drug due to contamination with a supposedly non-threatening pig virus. (Snort!) Nossir...no side (snort!) effects.
To Market, To Market Not much going on in terms of the futures before the open. Want something tasty to read? John Crudele's piece in the NY Post today about how "Stock Prices rise when celebs get board seats."
Guess that would explain why I haven't been offered a board seat anywhere, huh?
Say, Did I Miss Something? The UK's Daily Mail Online has a great picture of "Mars as you've never seen it before: The colossal ice walls that show another side of the Red Planet."
Hold it! Hold it! I thought until just a couple of years ago there was a big debate about whether there was any water on Mars...did I miss something? How is it we go from arid no-man's land to colossal ice walls like this? And...since Obama has scrubbed the moon missions, how are we ever going to get to Mars to set up a new water bottling operation - or have we ceded that along with the Moon to the Chinese in return for buying more debt? Inquiring minds want to know....
Think through the business model on this: Ice means water and considering the obscene profits in the bottled water business, that alone would pay for the space program development costs to get there. Am I right, or what? Buck and a half for 12 ounces of water...beer's cheaper'n water anymore (and has lots of nutritious B vitamins...mmmmm.....) if you buy the 30-pack which is the East Texas unit of measurement although my eyes were blurring a bit.
"Israeli Mistake" Candidates We've been watching this 'thingie' in modelspace for months and months now called (distilled down as) 'the Israeli mistake'. Problem is, we have more candidates than we can shake a stick at. For one, the Brits are expelling an Israeli diplomat (Mossad) over the assassination of a senior Hamas commander and the use of fake Brit passports.
Next candidate is the plans of Israel to 'build in Jerusalem" which is bound to up tensions.
Another possibility is a possible attack on Iran...which could be a 'mistake' depending on fallout (use your imagination here) and then there's the net conspiracy ranks continue to buzz about a former director of studies at the US Army War College who ties Israel to 9/11 (video via link from here). With multiple 9/11 investigation panel members saying they were lied to and/or calling for a new investigation...well, it's all picking up linguistic velocity, seems.
Flash Mobs Increasing Say, here's another one of those "don't shoot the messenger' for reporting something you won't like, but has it occurred to anyone besides me that the 'flash mob' phenomena could be the lead-in / migration path for Am Rev II starting? I mention this because again "Hundreds Pack South Street During Flash Mob" and a couple of people were seriously injured.
One more reason NOT to own a cell phone. If I'm gonna flash anything, it won't be a mob...
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Them Pyramids of Iraq Been hearing rumbles about this ever since the US went into Iraq the first time...the rumor mill on the net alleged that the US had sent in teams of antiquities experts to push around this and that looking for ancient treasures. The story had the same 'ring' to it as the stories about the Nazis out & about collecting antiquities before and during WW II.
So persist is the debate over Hitler and his WW II-era occultists that National Geographic did a special on it (details here).
"Yeah, yeah, fine...what does that have to do with anything, Ure? This is 2010 after all..."
Well, in pops this interesting email and picture...
Oh, no, thanks to YOU...you been there & done it...and that picture of the pyramid is interesting on any number of fronts. First, it's a 'flat topper' - like many of the Mexican, Central and South American models. and the angle is a lot less acute than the 'peaky' Cheops style. I'm assuming it wasn't an ammo storage facility - entryway is too narrow for that and yeah...kind of interesting. Unfortunately, until some of the supposed participants in the 2001-2003 era 'antiquities units' - or their protective forces - decides to go public, or at least can fill us in on some of their missions and where they went and what they were looking for...we'll just have to make educated guesses as to whether some entity/government/organization/whatever actually went out and did a field survey and a little 'information retrieval work'. Contributions welcome, identity won't be revealed, yada, yada... It's one of those topics where until there's a verifiable source then the odds of it being true are down in the under 1% range. Then when a source pops up, it will go to 99% - darned little middle ground. My own theory? I think there's about an even-money chance that when the US went into the region, small intelligence teams were likely sent out to grab a photographic record of everything of value, particularly the hieroglyphs and other markings & symbology. Here's why: Suppose you were a government - and you learned of some serious threat to the world being uncovered in a study of ancient texts in one part of the world. Nazca, Peru, or somewhere else in South or Central America would be a guess, since supposedly Quetzalcoatl came from the south to the north - being a wisdom spreader from the past civilization when Atlantis went south in the last crustal shift. (This isn't George, there are lots of learned books out there on this stuff). Now suppose that in the work in the S/C American decoding session, a text was uncovered that said - in so many words - "When the Mayan Long Count ends, the sun will be come angry and when it does, it will send electricity and 'stuff' toward earth... and our whole 'worship of the Sun' has been cooked up to preserve this knowledge and to ensure its passage through time to the 'end of the Long Count (Baktun)'. Suppose, even further now, that you had a church - a really big one based in Rome, and when your folks went off conquering S/C America they came back with hints in this direction. So, when you adjusted the world's calendaring system, a few years later in 1582, you didn't put in the end of the long count just right...maybe slid it a year so that when it came along ion 2011...the people who were expecting it in 2012 would still be hard at work? This would ensure that those with foreknowledge of the event would be able to prepare before it dawned on most 'regular/slave-class humans... Now, fast-forward to the US involvement in the Middle East. What IF there was something to it...wouldn't it make sense to go out and research the hell out of any new land to see if there are future-indicating clues about? Computers, databases, and technology are such that if the US Government didn't have a small/semi-secret back-office operation somewhere that was virtually invisible yet tracking all kinds of disparate data like this because of its potential importance to long-term decision-making, well, let's just say I'd be surprised. Maybe make it some field office of the Smithsonian, or something...you know how they were supposedly involved in those ruins in the Grand Canyon back in 1909, right? As usual, more speculation than facts, so we leave the topic open for additional input, but that's a kind of overview of how one fit of some of the bigger puzzle pieces fits together. --- There's another - and much for plausible explanation - for what's coming down the pike toward the world. Simply put, the economic system needs growth in order to pay for interest. When interest can't be paid, the debt structures collapse and the world falls into a Depression. A few people - sensing this - start exiting from the paper-assets system best they can in order to maintain as good a lifestyle as they can. These people simply look at how compound interest works, pencil out how big a portion of the national debt it is, and arrive at the inescapable conclusion that debt loading is quickly approaching the hockey stick portion of the curve. Unfortunately, most people have a sense that either 1) hidden knowledge or 2) non-linear financial events are coming, so they either throw in with the New Depression economics - a sure bet over a long enough period of time, or they throw in with the collapsaholics, who come around every 10 -12 years. 1987, Y2K, 2012...and who knows after that. What's kept the world from imploding (since Y2K) has been globalization which provided a new avenue for 'growth' (crookery, but nominally 'growth'). Now, as even the larger global debt games collapse, there will either have to be a bigger "What's next?" -- like trade with ET's which would give Goldman and a handful of other paper-asset players a new market -- OR it really does all come collapsing down this time. --- While we wait for more facts to arrive, Elaine & I will just sit out here on the ranch, growing some organic veggies, tending a few goats (35 or so now, BTW) and watching what happenings 'out there' at the fringes of civilization which near as I can figure is anywhere in a Big City in the USA.... High Speed Issue Today (first thing out of the hopper after breakfast) I should be able to fix a couple of customer service/access issues for Peoplenomics subscribers. The high speed internet went down on Saturday and have been on the back-up system which is slow at least by high-speed standards. I apologize for the delay...but things are back to their usual 1.5 MB up/ 1.5 MB down speed this morning.
The WuJo Science Lab While I'm trying to find time to conduct a number of serious 'science' experiments - involving manipulation of time and the ever-popular field of antigravitics, I thought I'd pass along this science project from a fellow 'out on the edger'...
By the way - periodically I like to plug Robert Nelson's most excellent site www.rexresearch.com as the best single collection of science/esoteric things to ponder I've found. Especially interesting are his sections that deal with some of the odd radio patents from yesteryear...one of which I hope to make work some day....
A Side of Transformation To Go A couple of people have
suggested that the 'Siberia couple/woman referenced in the
recent Shape Of Things To Come may be Vladimir Megre's book
Anastasia (The Ringing Cedars, Book 1)
Brain Food of the Literate I've been having a fair amount of fun lately (usually while on a pahone call) running Visual Thesaurus in the 3-d mode and trying to find the shortest linguistic path from one meaning to another. Even if you don't bounce for their product, they have a dandy ,daily email and every once in a while along comes a 'word of the day' like this one - that is most interesting to savor (and drop ast just the right time, LOL):
The other daily word service to be signed up for is the Urban Dictionary daily word.
Why, between the two of them I'm sometimes able to establish rudimentary communication with strange civilizations - like the the early thirty-somethings - while my tricorder is in the shop for an upgrade...
Monday March 22, 2010 So, Along Comes Healthcare I spent a fair amount of time this weekend reading the healthcare bill that was passed on sent on to the president for signature. As you know by now, this will cost $940-billion and will extend coverage to 32-million people who are presently without healthcare.
Personally, despite what some friends think, I have not been 'shading the facts' on covering the story. It will still had massive new powers to IRS, mean even more government intrusion into your pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness including fines if you don't do as commanded.
Then there's the matter of costs. Don't know if you noticed the Bloomberg story this morning about how the US government may be risking its Triple A bond rating, since as the story put it" The bond market is saying it's safer to lend to Warren Buffett than Barack Obama."
Next we have the matter of public opinion and whether the actions of the House this weekend. Seems, if I'm reading the polls right, and you can find numbers to argue either way over at The Polling Report, that the public was leaning against its passage, but since 'too big to fail' congress hasn't been doing a really great job of listening to the folks back home. --- Do I think we can afford this? Complicated answer here: In a sense we cannot afford NOT to have it. Clearly with America sinking into Depression 2.0 and very little sign of a recovery, commercial real estate collapse in the wings, and a number of other clouds on the economic horizon, maybe the healthcare bill will increasing hiring in that sector. Or, you could be one of the new IRS healthcare police agents...
Then there's the jobs to be ensured by attorneys who will be working (for and against) to keep the law intact once signed: you see where South Carolina's attorney general Henry McMaster is already promising a challenge to the bill? Don't be surprised if other states, particularly those that are strong on State's Rights (and powers not otherwise enumerated being reserved to the States).
Joining in? Texas attorney general Greg Abbott who says:
Of course this could be messy and divisive, but then that's how complex systems seem to work. --- Bottom line is most of the plan doesn't take effect until 2014 by which time the perps will most be either outed by voters, or retired, the way I figure it.
The way I work the math is this: Right now about 83% of Americans have some kind of health insurance and the new plan would b ump that up to 95% - or roughly 32-million more covered.
To do this will cost $94-billion a year times ten years for a total tab of $940-billion.
Now, if we were to take the $94 billion a year cost and divide it by 32-million humans, we get $2,937 per year which pencils to $244/month which is about what I pay already.
Government efficiency? Doesn't seem that way to me. Heck, a little shopping and I'd bet the money could be spent just as effectively using already-available options. Oh well, I'm not in congress - for reasons which by now should be obvious. --- If you want a really good news healthcare story, try on this email from a friend who's a doc who was out this weekend doing what the government hasn't done...delivering healthcare to people who need it yesterday volunteering for Remote Area Medical service which this weekend was in Maryville, Tennessee. His report (which followed a read of Peoplenomics this weekend - which talks about the core competency culture and how that is somehow threatening to the PowersThatBe) - follows...
If you get a few minutes, go to the RAM website and click on the CBS News story about the organization which was on last year. Market Week Not a heck of a lot to hang our hat on - other than how the US markets will digest the health care bill - this week. Oh, some home sales figures tomorrow, durable goods on Wednesday, weekly unemployment numbers on Thursday if you're really hard-up for tea leaves to ready. Friday will be the statistical best bet with GDP and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number.
Long time ago, I sent an email asking if the Fed was a subscriber and if they got an advance copy. Never heard back from their PR department (why am I not....)
As for this morning, futures are sharply lower ahead of the opening. Is the great move to the downside about to begin?
Terra Popping Iceland is preparing for a second and potentially more devasting volcanic eruption. --- Speaking of quakes and such: Had a 4.6 in Alaska this morning and the reason I mention this is because this end of the Ring of Fire is active, too. And you saw where the quake today near Easter Island is just west of Chile?
Mondays Are A Riot As the "R" words (rebel, revolt, riot) are seeming to rotate around into the public consciousness as we move into good weather, a search of "R" words reveals that the Philly 'flash mob' defendants are due in court today.
There was a riot in Israel this weekend, but you have to read into the news a ways to find it. Meantime, the Israeli prime minster will be meeting with SecState Clinton to discuss (among other things) we assume the continued expansion of building in the West Bank.
Hot Greece Not too many media (common, they're mainstream fer cryin' out loud) have picked up on "Greece targets church in massive tax grab". The implications of this are just huge. What would happen, if for example, this were to spread - other countries, other churches? Why, next thing you know those not-for-profits that lobby Washington so effectively...well, let's not go there. Just tkrying to stay ahead of the PAC's all...
Yemen: War On or Off? We don't talk too much about the civil war that seems simmering in Yemen. The country's president said this weekend the war with Shi'ite rebels in 'over' which could be dandy, except that the US government is warning ships off Yemen to keep an eye open for al Qaeda attacks on ships & shipping.
The Sensible French French president Sarkozy's center/right UMP got trounced in regional elections this weekend. Wonder if it had anything to do with his appointing a son to a plum political post a while back?
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Bifurcated America/Rubber Meets Road Once upon a time, the idea of America seemed to be that we'd be a land of equality. Not that it was supposed to mean 'we all cross the finish line together' - far from it. But, we'd at least start from roughly the same starting blocks.
Here lately I've been seeing a widening gulf development in how the distribution of wealth is working out. Through a combination of taxes and how the depreciation game is played, it seems the gulf between the Haves and the Have-Nots is widening.
In fact there was a Yahoo Finance story this weekend (from TheStreet.com) about how saving a million bucks for retirement isn't cutting it. The new number is $2-million - or more.
No sooner had I mentioned in a column last week about how "$200,000 cars" were on the drawing boards, than my son George II wrote me an email telling me he was helping a (rather well-off) friend of his unload his mint 2006 Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren for (current bid on eBay $195,000. --- That prompted me to go looking at cars for a few minutes since the Palestine Car Show was rained & snowed out this weekend, no doiubt due to global warming.
Here's a 1970 Plymouth Road Runner which is at $35,800 when I looked - and that's not even meeting the reserve. Amazing! Sure, has only 667 miles on it, but wowzer...that much for a Chrysler product? For that kind of money, you could get a Dodge Viper like this one.
Breakfast Treat! How'd you like a little fried tarantula to wake up the old taste buds this morning? Our Canadian correspondent out on the prairies thought it would be a worthy read. Bit crunchy, maybe, but just to balance it off, click here.
Now we're all ready for work, aren't we?
Monday at the WuJo Reader sent in a particularly interesting site I'd never heard of before and in it are lots of interesting stories. The site is about "Scientists' Transcendent Experiences" and one in particular report under the title "What Direction Am I Facing?" that gets into that 'universes colliding/dividing' discussion we've been having recently. Most interesting stuff...
A Letter From the Front Here's an answer to the UAV photo that was up last week - from a reader in Baghdad:
We try...and THANK YOU from all of us at home. We'll continue poking the PTB in the side best we can in an effort to get you leaders deserving of your hard work and sacrifice. A toast to you and your unit MSgt! It must be nearly Miller Time there...
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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