|
|
Powered by
subscribers to
Peoplenomics.com
|
|
Published Monday
- Friday about 8 AM Central Time ....some typos are fixed by
8:30 daily This site is supported by subscriptions: For additional content, please subscribe to Peoplenomics. . Content mirrored at: www.independencejournal.com, Kindle (.MOBI) version here
Saturday Notes Although Saturday is (mostly) for Peoplenomics.com subscribers, just a couple of things to point out that should warrant your further researches this weekend:
These and other ponderings lite in more detail (along with plans of action discussed) over at www.peoplenomics.com.
The rate of forthcoming events has pushed the web bot project into hyperdrive - the report should be out mid to late next week as Clif (and what's left of the frazzled Igo) have been working their butts off on that...
The Sunday in depth Peoplenomics report looks at two more 'extinction level events" and just in case you're thinking "There's light at the end of the tunnel!", No, that's just anotyher train.
You see: We're in a building tension mode through July 11 (possibly 18th) like none other...so keep the seat belt fastened and a bit of Asia candied ginger at the ready. Calms the stomach and also goes well with a spot of tea...
The scene is the White House Rose Garden and president is praising the end of the Senate filibuster on financial overhaul which then moved forward, when a rodent (rat or mouse) scurries from out of the rose bushes on one side and scurries across to the other.
Several readers have pointed out this is perfect case of Universe showing its wry sense of humor...or what I've taken to calling wryrony lately. But unsettled officially is the question as to whether it was a mouse or a rat, however my money is on rat since this is Washington, this was the Rose Garden where a mouse by any other name is still a rat, and the subject of the event was -this clinches it - Wall Street. And we know what's down there. --- "Oh Rats!" Redux Speaking of which: Robin Landry called about 100 points down in yesterday's session to ask "You in?" Meaning: Did I get my short side entry I had been holding out for? "No...sitting in cash, dammit..."
"What did I tell you about surprises in P3 - primary wave threes down?"
"Yeah, I know...I even quoted from the Book of Landry Chapter One, Verse One on my site this week: P3 Surprises are usually, but not always, to the downside."
But if the Universe wanted me to be Rich, I would have an office in Omaha or Wall Street. Instead, I have to sit out here in the peace & quiet of the countryside wondering if we're far enough north of the oil mess in the Gulf. --- Europe was only down about ½ of 1% (on average) when I looked early this morning. Haven't worked up nerve to look again/
Since Wednesday morning's column (Three Bears, Testing 10,000) I've been waiting for a kiss and bounce off the 10K level. But just because I can feel a 440 point drop coming doesn't mean much if I can't get it right and make oodles in my own account. Still, better than being caught long and a little cash on the sidelines isn't a bad thing per se.
A slide of 35-90 points today would be my 'dart of the morning' and then maybe some upside action, since Chapter 1, Verse 7 of the Book of Landry read "There'll be plenty more to go in P3". That implies strong if not outright silly rallies. So I'll sit on my wallet and wait for an entry point.
Meantime, the futures were down in the early going, so if you're waiting for a bounce - like I am - maybe Monday or Tuesday of next week. No sane person would hold a short position over the weekend, would they? No worries: none of them sane types ever show up around here.
A Rail Reason to Rally? I know this seems counterintuitive, but since I'm praying for a rally to get a better entry for the longer term decline, did you notice this week's report from the Association of American Railroads?
Who said I'm a gloomster? See how I scrupulously avoid mentioning 10% of all US banks are on the FDIC watch list? Or that 1 in 10 current homeowners will lose their home to the bank? --- Related.... my friend Howard did explain that the Mortgage Electronic Registration System (MERS) does function as a fact-checker on MBS products and so TB&W may have just org problems to fix...good to hear.
Must Read of the Day Speaking of the aforementioned Howard Hill, your "must read" of the day is Chapter 14 of his book Mortgage Market Mayhem" titled "The Year the Prepayment Models Broke" online here. A taste? Totally out of context, but very easily understood...
I want to know as much about something - hell anything - as Howard knows about finance (like long tail analysis) down on Wall St.
July 18 Watch: Playing the War Card What do you do if you're in the middle of an out-of-control oil spill which may lead to diaspora later this year, a country which even a Fed governor says may "feel some of Europe's financial pain" (his complete interview here) and which has elections coming this fall which may see the biggest turning out of has-beens of Washington's power elites in a good long while?
Play the War Card.
Unfortunately, the War Card isn't something you play one day and then go on to the next turn of World Events. Nope: Gotta play it early because it can take a month to get ships into position if they are based on the US East Coast.
So let's keep an eye open and see if there's any telltale...oh-oh... "Truman Strike Group to Leave Friday" (today) sounds like an ominous movement.
I'd prefer to read this as simply the normal rotation of forward forces its being spun by the spunstas, but their arrival for operation will come in close proximity to our July 11 now July 18th peak of building tension language in modelspace. We shall see.
One reader, however makes no bones about it: He's pissed about July 18 being 'hot' now...
I will, of course....Not that I don't really hope this reader has a happy birthday, anyway. I'll be the guy biting my nails hoping that the first of the summer's saw-tooth of 'release language' headlines isn't a confrontation with Iran or Syria in that period.
The well-connected to Israeli sources, Debka.com headlines this as "Obama starts massive US Air-Sea-Marine build-up opposite Iran" and that sure sounds like playing 'the war card' to me...
Another reader, obviously conversant with such matters observes:
Is WW 3 the ultimate distraction from murdering oceans?
Web Bot Hit? "New Lands Rising" has been a persistent meme in the predictive linguistics but one which hasn't come forward to slap human consciousness into recognizing it. Here, however, is a headline that certain gets us to thinking: "Ocean Floor Rising by 13 Feet per days in Australia".
So think of a summer filled with a series of minor to medium-sized engagements in the Middle East to play the war card, the 19-months of visibility in data on the Gulf spill/mess, and then what happens if the whole earth goes walk-about because it's center of balance is changing due to glacier melts, oil releases, and rising ocean floors... Would that make for an exciting November, or what? --- The reader who spotted this writes:
Dog Poetic/Kanellos You've seen the latest video of Kanellos the 'riot dog' on YouTube? Follow the dog...
Big Quake Coming? We still have a number of mega-quakes due this year so...the report on Spaceweather.com about a "Magnetic Mega-Filament" has me wondering if upon (or shortly after) its collapse we won't see another largish (7.0 & above) earthquake here on Earth. Just a sense.
Just through a run of 12 spotless days with a new sunspot forming but not named yet. The Space Weather page interestingly notes that since 2004 we have had 801 spotless days while the typical solar minimum has only 486...so yes, much different behavior from the sun this cycle...
Older Workers Interesting "Focus on Lifelong Investing" bit in CNNMoney "America's Oldest Workers, Still going Strong". While I was having trouble figuring out how to get the pictures to display, I got to thinking: "You know, this is one reason young people can't find jobs...the economic cards have been stacked such that the only way old folks (which I'm within inches of becoming myself) have to keep working to survive..."
Frankenfood Marketing Coup Oh boy! "Are GM crops the answer to India's food shortages?" Sorry, I'm in the Nature Knows More Than Bipeds camp on this one. If the GM foods came free and without terminator genes and so forth...maybe. But charging people for seeds and making seed collecting illegal (as in Iraq)? Nope, sorry...won't go there. --- Related: You saw this week where "Scientists Create First Self-Replicating Synthetic Life"?
Before common sense left us (right after the UFO's after Roswell) humans 'got' down at a core level that super race breeding was not a morally sound proposition. Struck down Hitler's Germany, in part, because of it.
Yet here we are, 70-years later going down that road - at least in that general direction with plants and humans (growing organs on pigs and such) without seeing the shift of consciousness that's come along with it.
Deadlier Snake Bites We've got a family (if that's what you call them) of coral snakes that live up on the northeast corner of the property. Don't see them often - once while I was clearing trees for our microwave shot to get high speed internet access and there's the one what Mr. Mossberg & I dispatched out in front of the house a couple of years back...he'd wandered toward the house and can't have that , now, can we?
So it's with particular interest that I read the article on the Popular Mechanics website about how the only source of anti-venom may be about to expire. Had been made by Wyeth which was bought by Pfizer - and you know this week Pfizzy announced plans to ax 6,000 workers, so little hope of them going back into it.
I imagine a lot of folks here in the East Texas outback won't be pleased with this development; we certainly aren't since we have some of the critters living under a few mostly rotted logs within 400 feet of the house.
But maybe this is how things go in a complete breakdown of a civilization: Money drives all major decisions (like whether to keep a life-saving anti-venom around). Sorry, but that doesn't seem like a good, wise, or smart way of running humanity.
But just because
this looks like
The Collapse of Complex Societies (New Studies in Archaeology)
It's things like this that get me to thinking about running for Congress out here on a "Common Sense" platform. In case it has escaped your notice, common sense is on the endangered list and there's no sign of a turnaround yet.
=== snip and save section ===
Coping: National Dream Center Goes Live I think I've mentioned a couple of times about my desire to build a national dream center where people could register their predictive dreams of the future. Not looking for the "girlfriend left me" or dreams that rehash childhood or job crisis...what I'm after are the odd dreams where you have an unusually vivid dream and it seems to hold future content.
Ideally, the dreams we catch will be:
The idea is that if we get enough dreams, we may be able to do some dream mapping. For example, if we get a big uptick in 'earthquake dreams' out of the American Southwest, you might find that interesting. Or, if you got a flurry of UFO abduction dreams out of one particular state, well, that would sure be interesting.
There are plenty of changes to be made to the underlying code since it's based on a classified ad system that uses MySQL for its back end work.
If you drill down into a particular dream, you can vote on it (1 through 5 stars) but there's no other way to comment. Unlike a lot of 'dream boards" this is not a dream discussion site. I think discussion acts as a chilling agent that could discourage someone who otherwise might post. It's about capture of raw data so that people can read just the content and draw whatever conclusions they want from them.
I realize the layout and categories are not perfect, so please feel free to send any suggestions along you want (george@ure.net) with the subject line "dream center" so my mail router picks it up.
This is a work in process, but if you have a dream that's vivid, out of the ordinary, and seems/feels somehow predictive, click over here and follow the links to the DreamBase.
The National Dream Center also has an RSS Feed so you can incorporate it into your blog, if so desired...the idea being we can share our common dreams and maybe dream a better collective future...
Oh - and a thank you to Steve Taylor and Arnold Butland at Noah's List for the tech support and code customization work...
This is not a part of the web bot project, per se...just a little tangent I've gone off on in order to answer the Big Question: Is there any correspondence between the language shift that Cliff pulls out of the 'net and the dreams people have right before and around our hot dates/emotional building or release periods? If so it's might be another slight improvement in focus...maybe not big, a mantissa maybe.
H-Wood Conspiracy Notes I was having breakfast with Elaine Thursday when a most interesting subject came up. Went something like this...
"How so?"
Got me to thinking: 1993 movie "Fire in the Sky" was about the 1975 abduction of Arizona logger Travis Walton...but that was a documentary style movie. Within 20-miles of where Elaine grew up, by the way.
No, the movie that took Walton's apparently too real abduction case and marginalized the whole experience was "Close Encounters of the Third Kind" that came out just two years after the Arizona episode.
More recently, with a growing awareness on the 'net about highly intrusive government (and corpgov) spying on Americans, we have to wonder if the 1998 movie "Enemy of the State" wasn't also some kind of psy-op...preemptively defusing a growing public concern...just as movies had defused the topics of UFO visits in the 1950's and then human abductions/contact with aliens in the late 1970's.
At Last - A Clean Joke There are rare, but a reader thought you'd like to end a piss-poor week in the markets with something a little more upbeat:
OK, an oldie but a goody...With that, back to work on this weekend's Peoplenomics report for subscribers to Peoplenomics.com and then (as time permits this weekend) some experiments with time/space bending in my lab.
See you back here on Monday morning.
Send your comments to george@ure.net Shop Till You Drop Department: Peoplenomics This Week Lying About ELE's Part One Not too many times I can think of in my life when the whole planet has faced multiple ELE's - extinction level events - but we have several that are coming into view now. Just for fun, sport, and amusement, I thought it would be a worthy project this weekend to put some of them on the table: The extinction of fiat money globally, extinction of the Euro, the extinction from the Gulf oil spill, the extinction of the US government due to economic unsustainability...well, you get the picture. But first up, we need some framing references. More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Need Logon Assistance? Click here.
Cookie Video The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:
Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
"Live on $10,000" A Year Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Pass It On A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings. If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..." ---- Last week's report is always here.
Thursday May 20, 2010 Index Option Thursday We'll keep this morning's report on economic matters fairly straightforward because thinking too much is dangerous. Although early-on the stock futures were pointing to a lower open, remember that index options (mostly) expire today and common stock options tomorrow. Since there have been a lot of people short, the idea is that markets tends to close where they will cause about an equal amount of pain for ultra-bears and ultra-bulls, so they guys in NYC can make the most dough. Not always, but I seldom bet against the house. Late bounce today seems at least possible but how far down first is the question.
Initial unemployment claims for the week are one data point everyone's looking at:
And then there's the weakness in gold followed by a further retreat in the futures. But, is that due to the pending abandonment of the Euro, or just deflation in the CPI this week kicking in? Toss in a side order of Greek riots and all the European markets bleeding red ink all over the place, too while we're at it. Maybe it will be an ugly drop today after all.
My part bonds/part metals strategy seems to be moving along just fine, thanks. yeah, I expect hyper-inflation of the Weimar or better/worse this fall perhaps, but in the meantime, a split bet seems safest if you've got to have money in the game. A reread of how straddles and strangles work might help is you're not following the logic.
I think the math term for days like this is "high suck quotient".
Problematic Din-Din No doubt one of the dinner conversations at the Obama state dinner for Mexico's president was what's happening (or should I say NOT happening?) along the border.
Several senators have been pressing for National Guard forces to be deployed for direct border security work, but this is something that has been kicking around Washington for more than a year.
Now here's how common sense works out here in the East Texas outback: If I were to ask you for a glass of water, how many days would I wait before concluding "Gee, this here feller (or fellette) ain't gonna give me a glass of water..."?
East Texans, being a nice cross between smart, polite, and courteous might give it 8-hours or so before coming to the obvious conclusion: No water.
What goes on in Washington is dragging the 'time to answer' to this nation's problems out into years. (Does the term 'bullshit come to mind yet?)
The fact that the National Guard is not on the Border right now more directly stemming the flow of illegals means there's still more money to be made (including the hidden upstream contributions from the drug dealers and this is a congressional election year) than is to be made on the side of simply enforcing existing laws related border enforcement. All of which makes the US the laughing stock of the big drug dealers and who can blame 'em?
At least around here we're bright enough to figure that "no answer" is an answer. We might not like the answer, but it's there if'n you don't drink a whole bunch of fluoride-laced water or program yourself into stupidity with too much television and texting time.
But, ya'll don't mind the East Texas nutjob on this. Here's some sand for your head...have fun burying it... Maybe someday you'll figure out why I refer to Washington as the seat of slapstick government. Might as well put it all on eBay...
Leading Edges of Famine Oh, those linguistics about famine are still there in the HPH work...and oh, what's this? "China corn imports may jump to meet widening shortage, Li says..."
Dead Ocean Murderers An "AP Investigation: Oil self-regulates around the globe" makes a pretty interesting backstory to the Gulf murder now in progress.
Interesting, too, the term "self-regulates" which in this context I take to mean "will do whatever it takes to make the most money possible" rather than "will spare no expense to be good shepherds of resources and beneficiaries of humankind". Screw that... Otherwise, solar and wind power would be a lot more prevalent, wouldn't they? But, where's the recurring revenue in that, huh? 25-year panel life?
All of which is why you see so many captive regulators around the country: Folks who worked for this or that agency in a decision-making capacity end up with phatkat corp jobs later. Oughta be a ban on such, but oh, suddenly the corpgov types yell foul when common sense arises...incestuous complicity is a fine way to sum it up.
"He Who Sells What Isn't His'n" Department ..."Must buy it back or go to pri'n" is an old quote (Daniel Drew) but it certainly comes to mind as we read through the story of Taylor, Bean, and Whitaker at the Ocala.com website.
There, Fred Hiers' piece on TBW explains in part:
Wow. This gets us refocusing on a part of the whole housing meltdown that people are missing since they are worried about minor items like 2010-2011 ARM resets and such: How many mortgage backed securities are there floating about that have been sold to more than one 'owner'? It's not like these things had VIN numbers and CarFax reports for everyone involved to do due diligence, at least as far as I know....
Tell you what: I'll put the question to Howard Hill, since he knows this subject area thoroughly and see if he's got an educated guess. But just on the surface, an informed person who's in a retirement/pension plan that invested in MBS products might want to keep a close eye on this...a very very close eye.
Australia's Improved Police State At a global meta-level there is a HUGE power grab going on by the Insurance/Pharma Globalists. Let me set this up for you: A few years back it started in the UK (yuk) where agents of the queen started police-state like moves to figure out who was drinking too much and so forth - ostensibly so they could get mandatory 'treatment'.
Then along comes the Insurance/Pharma police state in the USA with 'Obamacare' which won't even kick in full force until the perps are mostly gone from Washington.
NOW we see headlines out of Australia that the government is planning "Fines (up to $110/day) for refusing to take part in ABS health survey".
This on top of what's already Oz's version of a China-like censorship of the once-free internet. I've got a personal problem with that because it warps the amount of language that available for dissection by the web bot project...whole other topic...
Throw all this into the blender with the recent reports on how the WHO is conspiring to put a global tax on the internet and you can see the outline of these persistent PowersThatBe types closing in on free expression of whatever humans want to do/think/talk about.
Toss in a professional groups like psychiatrists who over-prescribe psycho-active drugs to people who don't fall neatly onto a normal distribution curve made up by peer reviewed group-thinkers and you've got what?
One view might be that it's a new and improved Health World Order...guaranteed to be good for the PTB, even if it may not be too good for you. You obviously are ADHD and so give this drug to your kids because spanking them is abusive and you could go to jail you child abuser, you..... How did humans get this far without all these drugs, I ask you? And where are the massive jail industries of antiquity?
It might catch you unawares, so be listening very closely for the next moves of the Health World Order...surgical footies make a much more more quiet sound than jackboots and they're better for you, as clinical trials no doubt prove...
Seen the latest mascots for the 2012 London Olympics? Look a little like a cross between drug-vision induced asexual critters and police-state spy cams to me.
Still, living in a police state is preferable to something: The reality that the whole frigging world has gone mad.... Hmmm...police state or crazy world...got a coin I can flip?
===== snip and save section =====
Coping: With Global Tensions Rising A reader email sums up one way to 'slice the cheese' when considering world affairs these days:
Yep, that's certainly one way to slice the cheese, alright, but not sure if there isn't a better whey to cut the cheese.
Think of all the news that floods into your world on a daily basis. Now, gather it all up into a ball of 'information'. Next, think of all the ways that the information could be sliced - visualize a piece of cardboard (like a manila file folder) slicing through this very, very soft cheese.
When the paper goes through the 'ball of info' horizontally around the middle, you might see what to a time monk is the "global geopolitical affairs" meta-set...which is how you have sliced the cheese in your email. Yes, it's a proper slice.
However, there's another whey to slice the cheese (make a meta-set) out of the data: I might suggest pushing the cardboard through the cheese on a vertical axis - and maybe calling that axis "pop" (as in population) with the top half being maybe GlobalPop and the bottom half being PopUSA.
Shading down through the GlobalPop but maybe more in PopUSA of this whey of slicing, you might see "people's realizing government is powerless in many ways" as expressing itself in two (so far) obvious ways: the inability to instantly make Haiti 'right' again and now, the inability to corpgov/BP to stop from poisoning the oceans having caused the 'blue flue'.
As the web bot project moves along, and the processing of the next run is underway, Cliff's hard at work focused on the high immediacy values that will/should give us additional insights as to what to expect July 11th which has shifted to July 18...and to see if there is any shift in the [huge] release events previously pegged for November 8-12 of this year.
Depending on who slices the cheese, your 'horizontal axis through world affairs/meta set' where we have North and South Korea popping off at the same time, right as India and Pakistan nuke it out, all concurrent with the Russians doing something with its once subject states (Ukraine, Poland, etc) over energy all the while we have what looks like 19-months of dripping volcano of oil might be a correct read if what's to come.
Would that account for all the people moving around North America (from the equator north) seeking refuge north of 40º or south of 40º? I just don't know...neither does Cliff, which is why he's doing another web bot run. The problem is there are multiple scenarios which could cause the planet to go through a convulsion worldwide which would be 10-thousand times larger than WTC/9-11 which was only a matter of minutes in extreme tension release in modelspace. We're talking days and massive global impacts although, whatever IT is seems to start (in earlier data) in /closely to the PopUSA.
So, I don't think it'll be multiple regional nuclear wars, but I'm sitting here on the edge of my chair since our little ranch/outpost is only not quite 32º north. I just don't see clouds of radioactivity as being causative of that much moving around. More likely candidates might be something like the volcano of oil quintupling in size due to a failed attempt to close it with multiple small tactical nukes. Were (when?) that comes out onto the table, you may want to saunter up toward north of 40º. Or, if the Gulf heats up with a hurricane that picks up enough oil to put a thin coasting of everything several hundred miles inland, you might be planning for water supplies that would filter all that oil out...there's a worthy stumper for you.
What seems likely is that in the next data run, we will have a kind of 'compote' of language which when compared with the earlier Shape of Things to Come (which contained blue flue/death of oceans and such) and the new look, then we might be able to project out that line of thinking as put our expectations along that timeline.
I don't envy Cliff at this point in any run. He's got all kinds of inputs as to which direction things are likely to head in the Gulf and it's a bear to keep all that input from overwhelming his interpretation of the data...which is why being a time monk is so difficult. The task of data interpretation would be really easy if it just popped out and said "Expect thus and so...." It doesn't. There's a shift...a biggy...but whether it's nuking the oil leak fails and humans all run north, or we get a massive set of earthquakes due to a minute (even few degrees shift in the equator since the globe's center of balance may be changing from melting ice and leaking oil) or some other combination...we'll all know in the fullness of time.
Does this all cause Death of the Dollar? Maybe. Or, maybe that comes first after the Euro meltdown works itself out.
Mornings like this I feel like I'm rambling on...which I am...so on to what we can work on today....
Dream Center Testing I'm looking for people who have had an interesting dream that they would like to share on the new National Dream Center site which is underway. Not looking for outright 'crazy' dreams, but rather the vivid kind that has some aspects of "What's that doing in here?" since near as I can tell, the number of vivid dreams seems to be on the increase lately and by gather up dreams under various categories (and for those who subscribe to the Shape of Things To Come report, a chance to check for correspondences between short-term vivid dreams and predictive linguistics).
So if you meet the following criteria, please send me a note as I expect to turn on a big chunk of the Dream Center site this week....
1. You've had a recent vivid dream about something out of the ordinary for you related to the major elementals (earth, air, fire, water, money) which could be further categorized into other aspects such as 'wind' under the Air category, and so forth as an unusual dream... No, money is not an elemental, but it's what we focus on around here...
2. You wouldn't mind a simple registration process since (in today's computing world, traceability etc. is [sadly] necessary).
If this hasn't driven you away, send me a note via george@ure.net with the subject line "DREAM TESTER" (or click here if you have Outlook and some other email programs that will pre-fill the email out for you..."
Thank you...no telling what we'll find, but not very often people look under that particular rock of consciousnesses. I have, BTW put in a 'star' rating system, so that once a dream is posted, dream readers can rate dreams.
First task for testers will be a simple questionnaire about how they want the system to work, yada, yada, yada....code changes should be relatively quick fixes now..
Meantime, Back At the WuJo: Pizza! Forgot to sharing this little oddity that popped in from a reader last week":
Send along your time slices when they show up and remember there's still all that unfilled language out there about people going into shock/disbelief as weirdities (<--- I oughta patent that word) like this keep popping up.
Theory of Time - Optimism for Some Fine email - like a good tawny port:
It's all true, but it doesn't work for every human...since I have not= doubt that some people (like those who hang out around here) will 'get it' that they co-create their own future (with Universe).
But if people don't honor that role and responsibility as conscious co-creators and even practice one day a week in some fashion or other, then these may be surprised at what drives their ride in my surfboard analogy.
Only the conscious and prepared can help 'co-create that perfect beach landing'. Figure most of our readers ought to his soft sands and a cold brewski ashore to talk over the ride. But there will be others - some number that's pretty large I expect - who will have ceded their responsibility for riding the board and they will hit the rocks off to the side of the sandy beach over thataway.
Since 'service' is akin to helping people be better surfers (at least able to aim for the sandy part of the beach) seems we should be spending at least an equal amount of time focused on learning to surf (via dreams, meditation and what have you) as we spend chasing paper with ink on it.
But the headlines argue that's not where we are as a species...so I'm less optimistic how many people will be able to ride the wave right when it smacks the beach. Dreams are where we practice and the inputs of daily life frame those. which circles back to my Dream Center project.....changing the outside changes the inside.....or as above, so below.
Wednesday May 19, 2010 Once upon a time there were three bears: One bear was named Ink and he was fathered by Fed Bear who'd fashioned him out of too many zeroes. The second bear's name was Euro. She was a little scammer born of royal parentage to further the idea that bankrupt countries are stronger together. And Euro Bear had something else going for her: She was a graduate of Zimbabwe's famous Robert Mugabe School of Economics.
The third bear was known by a much simpler name: "Sellers".
In today's adventures, Euro Bear is showing Sellers Bear what happens when Ink bear starts in a half hour in the Land of the Brave, Home of the Renters.
But already this morning, France and Germany have been down almost 2½ percent while the UK (pronounced yuk!) has been down 2¼%. --- Watching the markets on days like this (from the sidelines since I missed by perfect entry point this week because I was screwing around trying to get rid of my Porsche and get an airplane - the car is now listed on eBay.) I can only mutter "Damn those bears, I told them when they'd be set free long before anyone else, yet when it came down to it...I got left behind.
Or did I?
The BIG number of this morning is the Consumer Price Index
I won't go into a big long rap about how this CPI report means this, or that. I'll only read from the Book of Landry "Surprises are usually, but not always, on the downside in bear markets..." This CPI is deflationary.
And why the Three bears framing? Trying to get you into thinking about eating porridge slowly...but it'll be along.
Speaking of Robin Landry His latest note to colleagues in the professional investment manager world has popped up
Gotta Work On My Hype Hmmm...Landry saw it, too... "Sell it all, ricks of 'major crash': Dow Theory's Russell" getting all kinds of traction.
Here...let me quote
you a nice stretch of the
Maybe I oughta hire a press agent. I get long at the bottom, short at the top and no press about it anywhere. Probably because I use terms like banksters, PTB and MSM I 'spose. Oh well, WTF. Old dogs and new tricks....
New Web Bot Run Say...listen up: My friend & colleague Cliff has had the spiders out and about so there will be release of a new web bot run about June 21. We would have liked to wait until July 18 or so (to capture the peak of emotional tension building which will shift into release language between the 11th and 18th, but now shading more toward the 18th, but we should have a much better handle on what's coming this fall in that (be very afraid of it) November 8-12 period by then.
Important Change: Instead of the usual longer term outlook this report will only look at high immediacy values - e.g. what's in the three weeks to three months range. So the report will likely still be $10-bucks, but shorter and focused only on events directly ahead since planning beyond that in this kind of worldspace seems pretty much pointless. --- Speaking of what's ahead, doesn't the mess in the Gulf fulfill (or will shortly) Hope Elders' prediction #7? Let me see...that leaves young people seeking a simpler way (may be starting) and the fall of the ISS or something like it...and then........ ........
Meantime, Taking Back America Tuesday wasn't exactly "Super Tuesday" but the Obama administration is zero for four in the congressional primaries held Tuesday.
More notable than Arlen Specter's loss in Pennsylvania (give me five "Proper decorum points" for not spelling it sphincter, would'ja?) was the win by Ron Paul's son Rand who seems likely to make it to the Senate out of Kentucky by tapping into voter anger and desire to wholesale replace congress.
War With Canada Now that our linguistics about the Blue Flue are setting up conditions by which 200-million people (or 20-million if we've got the decimal point off) will be going to parts north of 40º to escape oil disaster fallout, we can see already the basis of a War with Canada set in motion by the PTB.
Reasons? Oh, not that we need a reason as anyone in Afghanistan or Pakistan knows, certainly no Declarations of War or anything so messy. Nope: Canada is campaigning against the globalist bank tax which is the scam to ensure that while our fellow humans lose their homes that banksters ands corpgov phat catz don't lose their banks and get raises from taxes.
Why imagine...such a move by Canada is....is...anti-American isn't it?
News, Improved Wars Department Speaking of positioning: "Turkey deploys air defense system to 'defend' Syria, Iran against Israel raids" has got to get someone's attention.
Still, now that we have established (although in a terribly messy way) that there's plenty of oil in our own Gulf, what are we doing in the ME anyway?
Freedom of the Press Department I trust you've seen where private contractors are dragging along Coast Guard personnel to borrow a little 'authority' to try and keep news outfits like CBS from covering the real mess down in the gulf, which as we've reported as perhaps 100 -times larger than the "offishul" numbers?
What was that you were saying about a 'free press'? Move along that line and we find....
Lessons of Watching Walter Say, here's a Big Brotherly kind of headline out of the NY Post: "Cronkite 'aided' protests". Not that it sounds like anything Cronkite would do, although most of us in the news business at the time smelled the Vietnam War as a PTB scam and called it such. But what it does sound like is another case of a 'government informant' making payroll for themselves...just guessing, but 'confidential informants' often get paid, especially when on an agenda...
Kinda makes you wonder who's got what (made up or real) dirt of whom nowadays, too, doesn't it?
Chips Ahoy Department The EU is fining 10 memory chip makers €331 which pencils to about $403 million US.
But the real deal is none of that money will likely ever see the wallets of the consumers...and it will just go into what I call "The European Union Fund to Take over the World With Our NWO Cronies if We Can Get Past the Wild PIIGS" slush fund after a cut to the queen bees behinds the scenes. There, there, be nice.... No, we don't bow.
Mass Job Cut "Pfizer to cut 6,000 jobs, shut down 8 plants" is the headline - does this mean Viagra workers are screwed?
==== snip and save section ====
Coping: Nowhere To Hide, Our Own Karma Reader asks a very simple question here
Yeah...the world is doing an odd harmonic of the German ban on exiting circa 1939, isn't it? Why, even if you can leave, there's the problem with the 10-years worth of tax liability to IRS which will follow you around ball & chain fashion.
Not sure how to deal with your 'urge to flee'. A lot of people go out finding sites like Escape from America and a bunch of expat sites, but the time for leaving is a quickly closing window for a couple of reasons. Broke -pension funds comes to mind, for example. Dollar collapse could leave you beggared in a foreign country....and on and on....
If the linguistics are anywhere near right, after November it may not matter. A big clue should be reports of where former US presidents are, like the ones that have land in Paraguay. What do they know that we don't? And, how long have they known it?
Sure, things are pretty cheap in Panama right now and some other countries, but a lot of the rich in those parts of the world (drug dealers and such) are reportedly looking for places well north (or south) of 40º so prices in those areas seem to be firming, especially since headlines are popping about how "2010 on track for warmest year on record" although you couldn't prove it by temps here at the ranch.
Problem with most of the idyllic escape plans is they all on closer inspection seem to rely on an input of money from somewhere with few exceptions, but again, Paraguay and Ecuador and Chile are some exceptions.
Without Panama Canal trade and tariffs, Panama would descend into being what could be (pardon this) a third world shithole and take away the oodles of offshore dough and Belize and other countries could go the same way. Absent vibrant offshore banking, places like the Cayman Island might only be supportable for a very small handful of people since it takes diesel to make the power that runs the big desal plants there. No water, no people. And how's their turtle farm going to work pumping heavy crude around? Always questions.
It's as we've been saying (amongst time monk types): We are in #2 of a trifecta of events this year that will underscore how government is powerless to respond once problems reach a critical threshold. Get to those threshold levels and self reliance is your only toolkit.
A similar kind of letter from a reader in Florida this morning:
That is damn fine thinking right there.
Elaine & I were on a tangentially related point last night - We are what we think. And what we think is not very good.
Let me explain: I had wandered over from my office about 6:30 PM and E was about to start watching a movie on NetFlix TV that began with a gruesome scene in a morgue of three or four dead bodies. "Turn that shit off, dear, please?"
I then expressed my feelings that the 'real thing' will likely be along soon enough, so we should watch something a little more positive. Then I made a shocking discovery: When I put on the "no killing or murders' filter, seemed like more than half the content of NetFlix wasn't of interest.
Not that this is NetFlix fault - they are a consumer-driven operation and people watch really sick gory shit on television. It's maybe because I spend so much time staring into the future with Cliff that it gets a bit much and when I want to watch TV it better not be the same stuff that is coming along anyway.
Which circles us around and back to the question: Is there anywhere to hide? Nope, sorry, there is not. Your own karma will determine if you make it to 2013 and it's simple as that. If you are standing on top of a volcano erupting and Universe decides you should live, you will. If you are squirreled away in a safe bunker with it's own air supply and six years worth of food and every start-over option the in the world, but Universe figures you're not worth it, then no matter all the preps, you won't make it to 'the other side' of this period of history.
At some point, we come back to learning the lessons we have tried so hard to hide from. We learn to accept ourselves for what we are, and others for what they are. And no matter what, there's always an exit within 25,000 days for everyone, or maybe as few as tomorrow.
Humans are thought (by better minds than mine) to at some level create their own reality in concert with Universe. It's a wave we surfboard together. But put enough negatives in your life, enough greed, and enough distraction and there's no room on the big surf board of Life for Universe, and then you're on your own in a deep and profound way.
Consciously helping someone in an unexpected way each day and deliberately not watching violence to be entertained by it are simple, small steps. I can ruthlessly kill to protect family, don't get me wrong. But in my free time, I don't play battlefield scenes over ad naseum. Plenty of that may be coming at all kinds of very real levels.
What I am trying to do, however, is make a little more room on the surfboard of life for Universe,. and tune more closely if possible with its moves, its hints, its shifts, and its flows. I still have things to learn.
There's a fine
Richard Bach quote in Illusions: The Adventures of a Reluctant Messiah
So no, ultimately there is nowhere to hide, but go bravely, try to do service for others, and keep spare room on your board. There's only one exit anyway, since all waves go to the beach.
Besides: Going bravely doesn't cost a single cent more and it makes the ride oh, so much better, since your partner on the board steers better than you. But in a most gentle and subtle Way as the Taoists and others try to capture,
Changing Our Name to Clampett? Here's something interesting: Just about the time the world is about to be smothered in oil from the runaway 'volcano of oil' in the Gulf of Mexico, our little ranch will be visited by a couple who've dedicated years to developing new electronic underground oil & gas searching technology. And here's the neat part: They're going to be testing it here!
One reason why? We're within walking distance of numerous wells that are producing, been around since the oil rush here in the early 1900's. The North end of the Palestine Salt Dome is a highly productive area with much lower (read: less dangerous) pressures than those that are (if I read it right) about to kill one third of the oceans.
Consequently, I'm considering changing my name to Clampett if there is oil under the south 16 acre piece. Or putting a big sign out that says "Oil Lease for Rent". Why, if I can scare up a little wildcatting interest, we'd rent out that part of the property for enough money to buy a getaway up0 north and - if it comes in - get a piece of the action.
Elaine's close enough looking to Ellie Mae...and a big mansion isn't our cuppa tea. Just some modest little house on the beach with a 50-foot sailboat parked in the front yard would be fine.
We'll keep you posted on how all this develops. Universe winks and suggests a new word: wryrony.
Tuesday May 18, 2010 Go Ahead - Be Surprised One of the persistent things my friend Robin Landry reminds me of is that if we have really started P3 down in the market (e.g. primary wave three down from either the nominal top of the Dow at 14,066 on a weekly print basis in the fall of 2007, or the weekly print close on an inflation corrected basis in early 2000, with major bounced in either case as P2) then one should be constantly on the alert for 'downside surprises' during P3 down...and that's where my expectations are presently leaning.
The way I have it figured, we have two 'extinction level events' for economic life as we knew it and maybe a third in the wings.
One is obviously the fate of the Euro, which is the darling currency of One World Government Lite. With a major move downward in its purchasing power, not only will my youngest daughter be celebrating her 30-th birthday in Paris in early October with much less financial pain if the trend continues, but she might be able to afford a significant upgrade in accommodation plans since, as the German news service Spiegel points out, the "Specter of Inflation Haunts Europe" at the moment.
In what could be a tip-off of the "You know you're in trouble when..." variety, Euro Intelligence reports this morning that the European Cnetral Bank has just purchased €16.5 billion of its own bonds.
All of which gets us around to the curious situation where the US dollar seems to be rising while Gopld has been expressing a real lack of downside conviction which although counter-intuitive on the surface makes perfect sense when you consider that the Yuan/Renembi is not yet the world's reserve currency. Charting Stocks offers some additional insights explaining "Why Gold and the Dollar are BOTH Rising."
Of course, around the ranch, we operate on much simpler terms: "More buyers than sellers?" is our first guess, but it goes deeper...down into the hearts of hot money player players, wherever those are.
But with futures up ahead of the open, yours truly will likely buy another short position ahead of the Consumer Price report tomorrow.l
PPI On the other hand, a reversal at mid session today may be in the cards once the Big Boys finish selling to the weak hands, as this morning's PPI report is...well...read it yourself:
Penciling out today PPI Finished goods number is no fun - argues deflation is still here and it could smack the price of gold hard once people see it that way. Gold was down $15 early.
Libor Reveals "LIBOR puts the line to Wall Street's Infinite Upside" headlines Taipan Daily today.
Aw, just one more good pop to the upside at the open on contained inflation fears...pleeezze???
Oh, here we go: Home Construction up, building permits fall...gotta be something in there to send stocks higher for the greater fools...
Losing Sight of Justice Can't say this is terribly surprising: Courts worldwide seem to be losing their sense of justice and are instead now going wherever the corpgov winds blow.
Examples: "Gary McKinnon: 'They can't return me to a place I wasn't in'. This is where the UK courts are going to rollover and send a Pentagon computer hacker to the US for trial and to be locked up. as an aware reader wrote:
And another example of Courts losing sight of justice? "U.S. can indefinitely hold sex offenders, Supreme Court rules..."
Don't get
me wrong - I'm not in favor of returning sex offenders to
society wholesale. BUT I am greatly concerned that this is
a slippery slope. If the sex offender laws aren't tough
enough, lengthen penalties up front. But to give
government to power to decide, that's dangerous. Not to
promote capital punishment, but that does have a way of making
slippery slopes less slippery... SpyFi Google is reportedly looking into reports of data harvesting as they drove Googlemobiles around for mapping. Unprotected network? Guess it means open hotspot, huh?
Liar or Senator Department The NY Times piece about how a senate "Candidate's words on Vietnam service differ from history" may be a good study of the lengths people will go to in order to get elected. Like we didn't know at some level, already?
Stating the Obvious "New battle plan needed for a crsis prone world" writes Stephen Roach in the Financial Times. Why anyone would look to the Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia for solutions to the world's problems, when it's obvious that big corporate interests are as much the cause as solution defies my understanding,. Oh wait! I must be some kind of simpleton to question those with money....
Condo Nazis Department OK, I admit it...I am wildly critical of most condo associations because they are usually anti ham radio. But let me put that aside for a second and reveal that a "Baltimore condo may use DNA tests (of doggie doo-doo) to identify guilty pooch" and using this (pardon this) crappy application of DNA then fine the offending owner.
Who's ever think we'd stoop to this kind of living? This stinks...oh the list of bad lines would fill up hours of stand-up...er....stoop down comedy.
Where's my coffee?
Spill What? Went all morning without mentioning the extinction level spill...see? I must be an optimist after all. Well, no...
Sighted in Key West - are they from the spill? No proof...but there's a lot of questions being asked now about the candor of the 210,000 gallon per say claim...and especially since I haven't been able to find pictures of the actual sea floor at the leak...just those videos of a pipe. Inquiring minds and all that...
Up then down today is my Dow dart of the morning: Go ahead...be surprised.
==== snip and save section ====
Coping: Can New Materials Save Humanity? What is a recession? It's a period when humans have at some level lost their once free-spending spirit, where there's no additional money, and incentives to step up and put on the yoke of debt have all but been erased. This is different from normal times when there are lots of new products, lots of easily available money (think back to 'no doc' loans for a minute) and everyone is in a frenzy to buy because of the fear of loss...the fear of missing that last train out to financial Nirvana.
Once in a while, the use of a new product, or an expanded use of existing technology may be seen. An example of this might be the boom years that President Eisenhower created with the national Interstate Highway System - the 'interstates' that had their roots back in 1956. Using existing technology they caused mass employment including such historical interest points like "heavy equipment operator schools' and a massive dispersal of the population which was reinforced on the back-end by all the fears of the Cold War.
Now fast forward to today: What at the technologies that await breakthroughs or just huge ideas that can employment millions of people?
Now scan some press releases and ask yourself "Is there anything here that will represent a huge break-through that will cause more homes to be in demand, more 'stuff' to be built, and improve overall quality of life?"
DuPont recent announced...well, here's their press release:
OLED's hold a fascination for me, since it's been rumored that OLED's in the vicinity of certain electrical frequency generating sources can do a little time or space bending. All sci-fi, of course, but I'm watching this one very closely because OLED's certainly have the potential to radically change how consumer products look and feel.
Just yesterday, we moved a 32-inch Sony Trinitron out of Panama's apartment. Damn thing weighed in at somewhere north of 200-pounds. Off it went to the local Goodwill store. Not a thing wrong with it except a) weight and b) resolution since it was built before massively fast screen refresh times and 120 cycle refresh rates to those old Bruce Lee flicks don't look jerky.
He'll be updating to a large-screen LCD sooner or later, when he finds one that 'calls to him'.
Next item to consider is 'nano technology' which makes impossibly small products possible. Again, another breakthrough technology and one with important applications in things like extended battery life for laptops just as a simple example. But the lists go on here, too.
Now comes the ugly question: Have humans gotten to the point where short of teleportation, bending of space-time, and a few other yet-to-be-announced quantum events, we're near product saturation; or is the end of the development cycle coming for thousands of products all about the same time?
Take the lowly toaster: Resistance heating wire (nichrome or similar) driven by 110 volts and surrounding a moveable grid that holds a hunk of bread, a bagel, or your PopTarts.
How far can the design of the lowly toaster be pushed? And, could a spray-on 'toasting' chemical (miraculously non-toxic and rich in vitamins and anti-oxidants, of course) be all that we're missing to send this kitchen relic to the Smithsonian 100-year-old kitchen display?
Don't hold your breath. Still, the question of the day to ponder may be related to the Allegory of the Toaster: I've seen it in ham radio equipment, too. What was once the province of original tube type radio geniuses like William Halligan (Hallicrafters radios) and Art Collins (later Rockwell-Collins) built marvelous equipment which was at once excellent, field repairable, and a joy of balanced design.
But as vacuum tubes went away, and along came transistors, then the inevitable march of chip-sets, we've seen once 80-pound transmitters shrink to palm-sized. Along the way, their specifications have increased several orders of magnitude - the specs of modern Flex-Radio, Icom, Kenwood, Ten-Tec, and Yaesu gear (just to name a few) is just way off the charts.
But there has been a price to be paid: A tube type radio is easy (at least relatively) for a club-fisted geek (like guess who?) to work on. Tear apart one of the modern marvels of electronics and you begin with an assortment of moveable lenses on the workbench so you can see what's going on and then you start using thousands of dollars of test equipment to find the faulty component less than the size of a piece of uncooked rice!
It takes a lot of the joy, but it does absolute wonders for the specialization of labor component.
Not sure why I felt compelled to mention this, except that taken in their whole, these comments reflect an ability of people to question things like "How small is a small enough TV?" "How small is a small enough radio?" "How specialized can labor become over time?"
This all leads to mentioning that I've heard (nothing official) but the Mormon Church has been starting to move recently in the direction of self reliance. Good move. Already renown for their food storage and disaster response capabilities, the emphasis on self reliance is a neat thing...in that it encourages people to have multiple skills and promotes problem solving.
But what's worrisome to some of us who watch the whole spectrum of UrbanSurvival oriented thinkers, is a dark response within the psychiatry community. It was written up yesterday over on the NaturalNews website under the frightening headline "Now independent thinkers are considered diseased by psychiatry".
That article, in turn, credits a late February piece by George F. Will in the Washington Post for outing some of this which is outlined in the "Handbook suggests that deviations from 'normality' are disorders."
There was a pretty good YouTube video that came out in march about "Quants: The Alchemists of Wall Street" (which will eat 48-minutes when the boss ain't looking) that reveals some of the thinking of some of the financial types who are way off the ends of the Bell Curve of 'normality'.
A question to ponder over our coffee this morning is whether psychiatry has the balls to go after the planet-wreckers, or if they will limit their "practice" to ever-expanding 'definitions' of how more than x standard deviations from GroupThink is dangerous, unless you have enough money to buy off the doctors.
Quants, the Builder-bunchers, the rocky fellows, denizens of Davos, and the gnomes of both Greenwich, Connecticut and Zurich have evolved cannibal corporatism which is now eating the Gulf of Mexico on the premise that there's always gotta be growth, there's always one more breakthrough in intellectual property...one last silver bullet that will save us all...some magic New Material that will save us.
I'd respectfully disagree (at the risk of branding by psychiatrists with their ever-growing list of symptoms, some of which will eventually include breathing).
It's not new material that will save us. It's a new appreciation for the non material - the common we share in mind under the outer trappings of Life.
Psychiatry could do some really useful work in that area, but like quants, maybe GroupThink infects that profession as well. Maybe someone in psychiatry will come out and proclaim "Yeah...it's OK to be happy with 'enough' and it's OK to get off the corpgov treadmill...and then call out the rest of the professional mind-benders to follow suit. so far, I haven't see it.
So I'll keep looking for "new materials to save us" in books about psychiatry which focus on wholeness and sufficiency and how to implement reasonable and experience more joy. Or, in economics books that outline balanced business models that can thrive and serve a community either growing or shrinking...not this one-way road of growth as the Holy Grail in B-Schools.
That's where we need the breakthrough in New Materials to save us.
Dream Training Been quite a fan of 'dream training'...that is, going to sleep and allowing yourself to both have - and recall - vivid dreams. As work continues on my National Dream Center project, a few readers are reporting dreams already via email...and some, like this one...are quite interesting:
Right - not me, wrong color car and I would not be in perfect control. \
I did have one of my "Irwin Allen" type dreams last night, though. It was about a MainStreamMedia outlet that caught fire - and much of it was destroyed, particularly the radio newsroom. Being a newscaster (in the dream) I was called on to fill in, but discovered that due to the fire, there was no news to read...
So instead, I started reading history, and did quite a long series of remarks on unsustainable economics...and I remembered enough of the concepts upon wakening to sketch at least an outline of the problem this morning.
Hard to imagine going somewhere 8-hours a night and not at least having a good look around to see what can be done there.
Which gets me to my second point: If new materials don't save us, perhaps our dreams will.
Monday May 17, 2010 Pluming Idiots - Waiting for Diaspora We begin on a quasi-optimistic note this morning with an important announcement! The missing "weak force" in physics has been found. It turns out to be the weak connection between people's media-perceptions and their ability to operate a dime store calculator. This discovery is why our premium service Peoplenomics.com spent Sunday writing about all the "Lying About ELE's Part One". That's extinction level events.
Sunday's report this week focused in particular on the reports of huge underwater plumes of oil. And how big are the plumes? Most of the reports on the keyword "plume" very carefully give only two numbers - a length and depth, or a length and width, so doing the math requires some diligence on a readers part to come up with facts.
However, credit to the NY Times and MSNBC for their report on Saturday which contained all three numbers: 10 miles long, 3-miles wide, and 300-feet thick.
So let's discount the hell out of even these numbers and see where it leads us, shall we?
The length of the underwater plume (which is of heaviest crude components like asphalt and paraffin and such) is given as 10-miles.
The width is report as 3-miles. But because we expect it's only 3-miles wide at its widest, maybe it's only one eighth of a mile wide (660') on average, or some smaller fraction like that.
And while
the thickness is given as "300 feet", let's use one
Peoplenomics this weekend went on to cite the references, like how many gallons are in a cubic foot - that and how many gallons are in an average swimming pool.
The spoon-fed MSM number of 210,000 gallons per day would mean a spill of 11 average swimming pools a day and since we're 28-days into the event, about 300 swimming pools of oil.
One of the numbers is obviously bullshit. Either BP & gov't are underplaying the hell out of this hoping to avoid wholesale panic around the Gulf Coast states (can't blame 'em...) OR this 'oil volcano' continues to be an extinction level event in the works.
Reality Check: The problem with our 'rickety time machine" (the web bot project at www.halfpasthuman.com ) is that it is not perfect. We often get the year wrong. BUT we are now operating on the assumption that our earlier work about the 'global coastal event' is now here.
When we look back at ALTA )%)( (based on May 2009 data gathering) and read what was written up then, it really fits damn closely with what's going on now:
Our bad - year date ranges are a bitch to figure...but for a linguistic description of current events posted in December 2008 that also has special meaning to us. After all, this is definitely a benthic event.
We
developed something we (i9nternally) call Ure's Theorem, which
states that "The larger the socioeconomic and emotive impacts of
a future event, the further out we will see them in predictive
linguistic modelspace". Which got me to rooting around in
the archives because one of the key descriptors of the Diaspora
meme is that it should involve 220-million humans
walking north to be 'safe north of 40º'.
In 2008 tornados and flooding seems like they might fit, but as
so often turns out in modelspace, our timing and magnitudes are
often screwed up by adjacency to other archetypical memes.
Clear as the
Since we've got a few spiders out & about, and since they seem to be saying this story (and follow-on impacts will last at least 19-months from now) we're re-examining some of the 2008 and 2009 language related to Diaspora (the entity in modelspace which describes the mass movement of humans). Some snips to ponder:
And this resolves down in the most recent run where this is described on page 25 as "Blue Flue".
Were I guessing what will happen next? Bits of happy talk about 'progress' on containment through July is one possible way to read it, followed by diaspora in a serious way as we get into the thick of hurricane season.
I won't be anxious to buy Florida (or gulf Coast real estate in here until the outlook improves. But this situation certainly has the possibility of being the second incident in which government is demonstrating that it has only a so-so reactive mode to go to when dealing with massive issues that impact millions of people.
What was the first issue of this magnitude earlier this year? Yep: Haiti earthquake. Which gives us one more of similar size to expect, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. We don't mean to be admonishing the MSM for being unable to question and suffering from numeracy (a particular lack of skill in math already noted by my friend Howard Hill in the MSM's lack of computational horsepower in finance).
But just based on my calculator, this is the biggest oil spill in the history of the world and beat the Exxon Valdez in its first day. Still reports of the plume sizes could be wrong, Excel could be wrong, or I could be a pluming idiot. Ure's Theorem says since we have multiple year visibility, we ain't see nothing yet.
Fortunately, BP thinks otherwise and they will make another plugging attempt later this week. We'd love to be wrong on our pessimistic outlook. Besides, linguistics is about the headlines and language, not about actual events. Except this still looks like #2 out of our trifecta of three events where government pouring resources in doesn't work.... --- Some readers asked about the headline in the UK Telegraph that "Barack Obama sends nuclear experts to tackle BP's Gulf of Mexico oil leak". Probably because Russia has reported used a couple of large explosions to close runaway oil & gas holes, but with mixed success...and me? I worry about there being some tributary or the New Madrid system down in the rig's neighborhood.
Why not use HAARP technology to create a slip-strike fault and close it that way? Or, aren't we suppose to be aware of the vast body of conspiracy theorist data in that realm?
I'd give anything for a government that would not treat us all like idiots. We aren't spending hundreds of millions on HAARP to rediscover what ham radio has known about the HF radio spectrum for 80-years, are we?
Don't worry: I won't go there...you'd be bored, but with I did work Sardinia, Italy (mainland), Venezuela and France plus a fellow fishing 15-miles off Virginia Beach on his boat who checked in to the Maritime Mobile Services net on 20 meters. Not bad for an intensive half hour of play time with the radio hobby. ---
So just what could cause a massive Diaspora from the spill and its after effects? Hydrogen sulfide levels are already passing safe levels in some towns and beach locations near the event.
If BP isn't successful or lucky, might want to check your hiking boots, or as I told Peoplenomics reader this weekend, make friends with someone north of the Mason Dixon. Quick.
Puffing Up Monday Modest gains are showing up in European markets before the US open today. Fine with my since I dumped my short positions on Friday expecting some happy talk this week. US market when I checked was flat to up 10 points or so.
The Treasury TIC flow report is about all the excitement due up today, but that should give some hints whether smart money is coming or going. Must not be too bad, since the futures are up in the early going. Fine...set up my re-entry position to the short side...be counting on it.
Building permits and PPI tomorrow - always interesting because the inflation that shows up on your grocer's shelf never comes unannounced. First it pops in crude goods, then intermediate, then the finished goods report. Since that has been looking quite inflationary of late, expect prices of everything to be going up strongly this summer.
Then Wednesday we get the (twiddled with, of course) Consumer Price Index numbers. I'll be the guy throwing darts repeatedly at the wall of my office wondering if I should get short before, or after, the inflation report.
(Wall's really starting to look like hell, I should really break down and buy a dartboard one of these days...)
With options expiring on Friday, maybe one last kiss of 11,000 is possible depending on how the numbers come out (do we believe 'em?) this week.
Jailing Banksters That "Greece considering legal action against US banks for crisis" is not at all surprising. Since everyone has (to borrow an old courthouse beat reporter's term "dirty hands") in this whole mess, everyone can be expected to blame everyone else. The US bankers for going for gains, the Europeans for not looking at Greek spending, Greece for spending its way into the poorhouse, and I guess I'd even toss in the IMF for this headline in the WSJ Online: "IMF Official: Italy Fiscal Policy "Prudent," Greece, Spain OK".
Or, will this be the red herring to bring in total EuroGov? "If Euro fails, so will the idea of European Union". Like Greeks have much in common with Swedes anyway?
Time/Libretto-wise, things may hold together for the world till July 18 (the July 11 date is slipping a tad in the linguistics...but more on that one of these days when appropriate. So for now, building tensions continue.
Unraveling Bankster Subsidiaries This Notice of Proposed Rulemaking in this morning's Federal Register Online:
Wonder if that means looking at those mortgage operations of big banks separately? Or their trading operations...Hmmm...wonder how much (if any) overtime this will mean in the accounting departments at places like Goldman, BofA, and Citi?
Shorting Europe Of course, thanks to the Global Government Lite experiment, the European Onion, we can see the signs of that currency disappearing along with the European Onion itself in the not too distant future. "Europe plunges to four-year low as debt fears weigh" doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
Of course, that's what rampant socialism gets you. In Europe a lot of workers get six to eight weeks of vacation, a benefits package to choke a horse and ridiculous amounts of leave. In return, that's sure to bankrupt governments.
Of course, in Detroit, where the city fathers (& mothers) are trying to figure out how to downsize and survive, one-upon-a-time autoworkers thought they had great bennies and pension plans, too, till the bankster class came along.
Notice how in both cases seemed all so workable until "the banksters came along"?
=== snip and save section ===
Coping: Beat Up Tractoring, Ice Age Coming Most of Saturday was spent cleaning up the south boundary of the property for the installation of new goat fence. If it wasn't one thing, it's been another - this is a project that was supposed to be done weeks ago. But mechanical failures have plagued this operation. Some my fault, others not.
The Husqvarna 55 chainsaw starter rope broke (again) so it goes back to the shop after being out only a week. For the same problem.
The tractor has a new radiator and fan and runs fine - and we got most of the line ready - maybe another hour or two this morning. I'll try to do a few pictures of the clearing if I remember. There's enough pain going on pretty much in all parts of the body that holding some other thought in mind could prove challenging. --- Getting the goat fencing done has been an important project around here for a long time. Part of the reason has been that global warming has - in the past - been a precursor if I'm reading things right, to ice ages.
Headlines like "Scientists forecast decades of ash clouds" coming out of Iceland in particular, mean that we very well could be facing global starvation in not too many years. Our goats are about the best critters around from an environmental standpoint. Even if Katla goes, which seems to be an increasing possibility, goats are pretty adaptable.
They eat kudzu, most weeds, seem to know where the snakes are, give milk that's better for most people than cow's milk, make a decent cheese, and have high meat content. They are fairly robust to the temperatures ranges we have and since we're almost 500-miles from ground zero of the oil mess, I figure protein production is not a bad thing.
Our current thinking is to get a best of all options lined up. We have our own well in operation, our own solar power set up which should be up to 3.5 kW in a few weeks, and if necessary, we could subsist on a diet of squashes, tomatoes, goat milk & cheese and a good store of grains. Not sure I fancy eating that much pizza, but with a sun oven and other non-grid possibilities, this is really getting to be a decent survival platform.
Something that hasn't made a lot of headlines is that wheat production up north looks to be down this year. Not a good sign with the volcanoes still spitting out ash - which adds to global cooling. One Wisconsin report, for example, says "Total winter wheat for grain production is forecast to be 15.6 million bushels in Wisconsin, a decrease of 27 percent from 2009. State yield is currently forecast at 68 bushels per acre, same as last year. The 230,000 acres to be harvested for grain or seed this year is down 27 percent from last year.
Country music stars up in Tennessee raised over $1.5 million for Tennessee flood relief this weekend, but that's only a drop in the bucket to what's needed to get Tennessee fully back on line. === Living a good life is often a matter of coolly assessing threats, figuring some odds and then making least-risk decisions.
Our own plans are to make the ranch our "last stand" but the red car is on the block and if it sells, the current thinking is to get a Cessna 172 and keep it nearby as an escape tool. Add a PowerFlow exhaust, toss on a set of flap seals and you've got a plane that will climb fast, run somewhat economically (as good or better than most mid-sized cars) and which can come down 500-miles away at 150 MPH ground speed. Full instrument panel would be nice, but we will go where we can on this.
The problem now is waiting around, watching the linguistics for hints. Near as I can guess, we should be OK at the ranch. Pollution & hydrogen sulfide clouds south, advancing glaciers north, and enough fuel onboard to exit in a timely manner.
Does that make me a worrywart? Nope. Just a good chess player who is trying to stay a few moves ahead of the game. Life is one of those "Must be present to win" deals. The plane wouldn't be a new expense (except hangar fees and maintenance) since it would really be more an equity swap. But if I don't do a plane now, when I can get up to speed and enjoy it a bit, when will I ever get around to it?
Decisions, decisions. But nothing pressing today (except a radio interview on "Beyond the Ordinary" at Noon Pacific...to talk about "What happened on May 6th you and Cliff were expecting?" Oh, that...and maybe re-entering on the short size if they can puff up the market today.
Meantime I'll be out playing Bronco George, the Kubota Kid beating myself further senseless playing beat the clock.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
|
Further
Readings Bots: NE Power Outage
Our Favorite Tool: Minneapolis Fed Inflation Calculator
Our Suppliers: Graphics By
Machine parts: www.emachineshop.com
Printed Circuit Boards
Commodity Trading
Bullion Buying/Selling
Web Hosting
Radiation Monitoring
Emergency Food Stores
Tequila
Organic Heirloom Seeds:
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
This is a Free Financial News and economic information site updated daily except Sundays. If you can not get to www.urbansurvival.com from your corpgov workstation, please try our mirror site: www.independencejournal.com . This site is also available at www2.urbansurvival.com and www3.urbansurvival.com which may not be blocked. · Bulletins are posted as our work schedule permits and as events warrant. · I try to publish Monday-Saturday by 8 AM Central Time/ 9 AM Eastern with 7:55 Central pretty normal. If you're easily offended by the occasional typo, then check about 8:15 Central we usually proofread and spell check after the first post. We've had some amusing typos in the past... Sometimes a Saturday issue will be dropped due to projects & chores on our ranch. · Financial and news judgments of the publisher are not to be considered "advice" · Please read and understand our disclaimer · All original content © 1997-2010 by George A. Ure except sources as linked. Very short extracts are occasionally used under 'fair use' but never entire articles without permission. That would be beyond 'fair use'. · Copyright of all linked articles is cited under fair use as this is a topic specific site (long wave economics and humanistic economics, which we call "Peoplenomics"
Our premium service, which contains more in depth reports is available on a $40/year subscription basis. Details at www.peoplenomics.com/subscribe.htm.
The "web bot project" indicates a reference to the time predictive technology embodied in the "Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis Intelligence Reports" technology pioneered and operated by Tenax Software Engineering for www.halfpasthuman.com. An intro to the technology is here. Extracts, when used, are with exclusive permission and any references on other web sites must contain a link to both this site and HalfPastHuman's main page: www.halfpasthuman.com.
Site Contact: george@ure.net
© 2010 Copyright Notice: The author(s) of this site requires that any links or use of material from this site include the author's name and a link to this site. All links included in our material must also be included in citations. Address questions to: george@ure.net. Copyright infringers will be pursued, and please note that Fair Use requires identification of the author/source and we require a link which when you think about it is really minimal recognition of our works and the works of those who are quoted herein.
|
|
come-a-calling, don't get worked up over it.
that I'm sure I'll get wrong, but it goes something like this:
"How do you know when you've learned your lessons for this
lifetime? You're still here, aren't you?"
