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Peoplenomics Independence Journal Site Disclaimer Elliott Wave View as Blog

Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time ....some typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday May 29, 2010         07:55 CST  New?  Visit our FAQ 
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The Usual Saturday Reminder:  

This is a weekend - and a long one at that.  Consequently, all content that's new is posted for subscribers to Peoplenomics.  Most folks figure at $40 a year, it's better than many of the spendy financial newsletters in the $300-$600 class.  Since we don't make any pretense about offering financial advise - covering a much wider range of topics - it's a bit of mind stretch at times and the piece I'm working on for Sunday is no exception.  It's all about what I call "Reality Waves".  Should be interesting.  This page should be updated on Monday around our usual; 8 AM posting time.  Between now and then, have a great weekend!

 

Good Moon/Bad Moon

Got a pet theory going into the open of trading in the US market today - which came through with a screaming 284 point advance on the Dow yesterday which was even better than the 200-I was expecting.  The theory goes like this:  People are crazy around the full moon.  In fact, I think it was Steve Puetz who first noticed the effect.

 

Let me quote from a June 2001 article from internetnews.com:

"Several years back, a cycle watcher named Steve Puetz attempted to see if eclipses and market crashes were somehow related. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei of 1990. He found that market crashes tend to occur near full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Puetz found that all eight crashes occurred six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, Puetz calculated, are less than 1 in 127,000."

The rest of this Paul Shread article is a must-read if you're not familiar with Puetz work.

 

About here, you may be asking yourself "With the futures up, and everything looking rosy again, why would old Gloomster George dredge up a story out of 2001 for me to read?"

 

Assuming you don't have your Celestecomp V (or StarPilot) handheld navigation computer fired up for your sunrise sun shots to see if your home is where it should be, here's the deal:  The NASA Eclipse web site says we have a total solar eclipse coming up on July 11th.

 

And that means the next full moon after July 11th will come July 26th.  But while it may be tempting to sit on the sidelines until then, there's also some correlation between madness and full moons which is why - at the peak of the market today - or near it as I can time things, I will go 'all in' with the few "play dollars" I have in paper assets.

 

Since I'll be playing either very long expiration (2011) put options on selected financial stocks, or the triple bear financial stock ETF, I'll have plenty of time to watch and wait.

 

If Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner can print money, I figure George can, too.  And this is how I plan to do it.

 

CAVEAT: This is not financial advise:  I'm a wild-eyed, hard drinkin, cussin', no good, steel-for-guts, options player with more losses than sense.  But when I have gains?  Well, they've been pretty good.

---

Speaking of matters aloft and their relationship to markets, please try to remember that just because I don't continually write about what's coming astrologically, doesn't mean I'm not aware of it - and give it a wide berth.

 

I mention this since the rest of the financial universe seems to be talking about the forecast of Arch Crawford whose "Crawford Perspectives" is widely followed by astro-econ types who (wrongly) assume I'm an ignorant pig.  While they may be right on the ignorant pig part, no denying that,  I did cover Crawford's outlook in depth in our October 21, 2009 report right here.

 

To save you the trouble of clicking - it's Friday and you have to be tired of it by now - and to save me additional bandwidth charges for your incessant clicking, here's what I wrote in October of 2009:

With the Bad Part of 2010

Had a most interesting conversation with Arch Crawford last night about what's ahead, not only for the ugly part of this year's market (wait a week or two and you won't be saying "huh?") but also about the really ugly part of 2010; which is you want to mark it down should show up sometime between late July and Early August of next year by his work.

Crawford ( www.crawfordperspectives.com  about $250/yr ) has been writing a financial newsletter for about 32 years and was "ranked #1 market timer for the 2008 calendar year" by Hulbert's Financial Digest. What's interesting about Crawford's work is that it's an astrologically based report - although other cycles are considered, too - which makes it interesting when a person (like me) is trying to line up periods where multiple predictive systems are all pretty much saying the same thing.

Just as the predictive linguistics work is pointing to big market moves starting as early as late Sunday (Monday in Asian trading time) Crawford's work shows there's a rough patch there.

But more worrisome is his take on the mid-2010 period. "It's about the worst we've ever seen," he told me.

How bad is bad?

"Well, when something is worse than the Revolutionary War, World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II, that's bad - it's the worst I've seen the charts in over 200-years.

As he explains it, there's Mars conjunction Saturn which will be in opposition to Jupiter conjucting Uranus all squaring Pluto.

Not that it means a hill of beans to me - I'll take a GPS reading, thanks - but because of the Pluto is where it is mid summer of next year the biggie stuff out there is likely to be planetary in nature.

Interestingly, this also corresponds to the predictive linguistics work what has the big showdown basically between good guys and bad guys there; a time when the global mass of humans will be seeking revenge/change/retribution from the PTB.

Now that we've arrived safely (if you don't mind a little oil being slopped around the planet) in near-summer of 2010, I'm feeling positively giddy that the market may be about to put in a "full moon high" today, which with the right basket of paper, I figure could double, triple, or better before we get to August or so. My portfolio is up only about 50% YTD but that's not going to buy me a new Cessna.

 

I try never to count my "Clevelands" before they hatch, but a move up of another 50-150 points today would make be positively giddy, I tell yah.

 

Speaking of giddy-up, time to stop daydreaming although I'm sure you're aware that you can scam pretty good by calling daydreaming "solution visualization" which outwardly looks about the same  and seems much more acceptable to brain-dead muddle managers.

 

We ride on to Personal Income - assuming you still have some:

Personal income increased $54.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $57.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $4.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. In March, personal income increased $46.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $44.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $59.8 billion, or 0.6 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income increased 0.5 percent in April, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in March. Real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent.

---

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $398.5 billion in April, compared with $342.7 billion in March. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.6 percent in April, compared with 3.1 percent in March.

All of which - if these figures (especially savings) are to be believed,

ought to fire up the bulls long enough for the bears (like me) to line up for the sneak attack on their arrogant ways...which have only gotten worse since the high tech bubble which made paying of dividends far less common.  Once a measure of how well a company was doing, dividends have fallen to dismal levels on the theory that Greater Fools will always be readily available for crappy stock with too much debt behind it.

 

Me?  Call me old-fashioned, but never late for dinner.  Nothing's better than a little Bull well done.

 

The UK's Telegraph is asking "Is Europe heading for a meltdown?"  Ah, such limited thinking.   "Is the whole freaking world headed for a meltdown?" is the right question with a very wrong answer this year.

---

The recent headline that our predictive linguistic pals "WebBots REPORT MOST DEPRESSING THING I'VE READ IN A LONG, LONG TIME..." is not why their published.

 

They're so you can get off the train tracks before you get run over, or haven't folks figured that out yet?  Really astute people will probably figure out how to make money from the passing train, which is my particular bent.

 

Plume & Doom

The headline from MSNBC that a "New, Giant sea oil plume seen in Gulf" is not exactly a surprise, given that my sources in the oil patch down Houston way explained to me that "Flow rate are going to increase while they're injection 'top kill' mud."

 

The other thing (other than persistent Florida evacuation rumors) is that the incident management group came up with a daily flow rate as high as 19,000 barrels per day, which pencils to about two Exxon Valdez-sized spills so far at the high end, and 12,000 barrels a day, or an Exxon Valdez every 22 days or so at the low end, I feel somewhat vindicated that when I told you 2,100 barrels a day was a load-o-crap, it has now been proven just that.

---

Something that has come to our attention up in Canada is that a Chevron facility has been leaking oil since (coincidentally or otherwise?) April 21.  Good backgrounder in the Vancouver Sun...but it seems odd two leaks in the oil business around the same time.  Terrorism or coinky dink?  We report, you veg out.

 

From our "No shit Sherlock" file comes this CNN headline email that: "BP's top official upgrades impact of Gulf oil spill from "very modest" to "environmental catastrophe." 

 

It will be two more days (at least) before we know if Top Kill works.

 

USF reports one of their research ships is finding 'invisible hydrocarbons' more so than expected:

Researchers aboard the University of South Florida’s R/V Weatherbird II conducting experiments in a previously unexplored region of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill have discovered what initial tests show to be a wide area with elevated levels of dissolved hydrocarbons throughout the water column, possibly indicating that a limb of an undersea oil plume has spread northeast toward the continental shelf.

The Weatherbird II deployed a variety of instruments to detect the signature of hydrocarbons, which will be verified conclusively as Deepwater Horizon oil with more sophisticated lab tests ashore. The probable concentration of dissolved hydrocarbons was highest at 400 meters, indicating the suspected plume is at its highest concentration in the deeper waters. The discovery is significant because it verifies the presence of dissolved hydrocarbons in the deep recesses of the Gulf of Mexico that cannot be seen with the human eye but could eventually become a threat to marine life and habitats nonetheless.

The findings will undergo confirmation testing when the R/V Weatherbird II returns to its homeport of St. Petersburg at approximately 8 a.m. on Friday."

You presumably know that there's an "Indonesia mud volcano still spweing sludge four years later"?

 

Buffett to Speak

Seems the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission has subpoenaed the Sage of Omaha to have a little chat with 'em next Wednesday.

 

Sounds like beer, popcorn and CSPAN time, to me.

 

Memorial Day Weekend: Sunny Side Up

This being Friday and all, the latest UV forecast from the folks at NOAA look like a fine excuse to stay indoors and veg out this weekend:

 

 

You'll notice something about the upper left hand corner of the country that's a bit odd:  Seattle, always known for it's rain, or more properly the very occasional sun sightings there, is a "1" again.

 

So for the sake of comparison, here at the ranch out closest reporting station (Tyler, Texas and stand up when you say it) has only managed 9.9 inches of rain Year to Date (YTD) while "normal" ought to be 18.6" by now.  Even dray 2009 has 14.6" by now.

 

Seattle on the other hand has 18.8 inches YTD and a 17.2 inches average, which means people are having problems with septic systems and so forth.

---

Also of interest this weekend is the price of gasoline, which is shown in the latest Triple A Fuel Gauge report:

 

 

I keep waiting for someone to post a national Beer Index just for grins, but haven't found one yet.  There - a million dollar idea for some lurking webmaster who's out of ideas.

 

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Coping: Solar Power - Round Two

Being on the leading edge of Economic Depression 2.0 - which should be painful obvious to the unaware by November 15th at latest - there are some real bargains to be found while preparing.  A few weeks back I went shopping for solar panels to increase the amount of energy we could make locally from a modest 1.7 KW which had set me back more than I'd like to admit, to an additional  1.75 KW the basics of which came to under $6,200 including shipping.

 

The first part of the project has been getting the additional panels and after shopping around this time, I settled on 175-watt "blemished" panels, which for the life of me I can't see where the blems are.  Here's what I ordered:

 

 

Yes, you're reading that right: 175 watt solar panels for $385.00 per panel which pushes out to $2.20 per watt.  Bear in mind, when I was buying the panels for phase one of "the best back-up power for the office" system, I shopped like crazy and thought I was a genius for getting the panels at $4-something a watt.

 

The Outback grid-tie inverter already in place has been trouble-free, as have the Xantrex (formerly Trace) C40 charge controllers.

 

Found the equipment this time at www.sunelec.com  - you can call David Shapiro at (305) 536-9917, but realize than panel and inverter prices do bounce around a bit, and there's no guarantee they'll have these panels in stock, but I'm a happy camper.

 

Delivery was via R&L Transport out on this end, and even though we can't get a 50-foot trailer up to the house, we (driver, Panama, and me) simply slid the pallet with the goodies off the lift gate on the semi's trailer and into the bed of the pickup for the final journey to their new home.

 

The next step will be trimming a few trees (which means renting a scissor lift which will give me a pretext to do some work on the ham radio antenna tower while I'm at it, then weld up the next panel rack, and then wire it all up and connect batteries.

 

This is NOT SOMETHING TO DO YOURSELF unless you really know your way around electrons.  But a run of #4 wire to the solar plant, a half ton of Interstate UL-2200 (I think that's them, 225 Ahr 6V golf cart batteries), junction boxes, switching, and a having some matching cables made up to connect everything, that'll add another kilobuck to the tab, but in terms of energy independence faced with a choice of buying paper or practical goods that at least hold the prospect of paying for themselves over time, guess which I think is important?

 

Presto, Quake-O

As was noted by a few readers, despite the 7.4 reading, the arrival on Thursday of a change in solar wind may, or may not, be argued as having something to do with the quake.  The follow-up advisory makes the solar wind speed changes clear:

"An interplanetary shock wave was detected by ACE and SOHO/CELIAS around 02:05 UT on May 28. The solar wind speed jumped from 300 to 380 km/s, and clear jumps in the solar wind density and temperature were registered as well. The discontinuity in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude was very weak, so the shock did not lead to increased north-south IMF component. The geomagnetic conditions remained quiet. The shock is probably associated with the full halo CME observed on the Sun on May 23. The arrival of the driver ICME is still possible, so active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions may occur in the coming hours.

We note that the 7.2 magnitude Vanuatu quake arrived on the 27th - not the 28th, about 17:14 Hrs UT (GMT) - 9 hours earlier than the observed arrival) so this gets us to a couple of schools of thoughts.

 

The simple one?  "Coincidence!"

 

The more complex?  Since everything in universe is connected to everything else, perhaps it's a gravity well change of some sort not well-understood.

 

If you've followed the work of science, you know that even if you're a great theoretician, you won't get 'em all right.  Take, if you will, the case of Thomas Gold. Some right, some wrong, some jury still out 6-years after his passing.

 

While it's true that the (currently) measured parameters didn't change until nearly 9 hours after the quake, it's also true that the quake happened in close proximity to a predicted window.

 

More 'citizen science' is needed on this one, and maybe a full-up study of past coronal mass ejecta (CME's) versus quakes.  We continue to be open to no connection, a quake-led arrival, or none at all.

 

Like the old saying in statistics:  It's not what the numbers tell you that's often most important...it's what they hide.

 

Famine To Come

Reader email of the day:

One of the things I have been discussing with a friend of mine is sort of related to the dire predictions coming form the "Shape Of Things To Come reports." While our discussion is geared around a plot for a novel and the flammability of an oil laden Hurricane, I wasnt' too sure about the ability of a hurricane to loft non water.

Partly due to me wanting to acquire some of the skills of my parents, and partly out of an unsettledness, I have taken up canning and for that stuff that I can't grow, hoarding. It's beginning to look like the hoarding is gonna be the payoff... .since we likely will not be able to grow for at LEAST A SEASON. Why is that? I call it salt carry. See, when I'm not tracking stress waves up the San Andrea, I fart around with numbers. Usually, I spend all of hurricane season glued to the Tropical Cyclogenisis pages and watching the model outputs. I've been through a few hurricanes in my time... one of them actually at sea riding it out. (on a frigate)

So... I'm well aware of the amount of energy a hurricane can carry with it as it marches ashore. But what about the salt? Well, the salt is usually diluted out and has minimal effect on crops. But.. what about oil? Can it even get up into the weather system? In a nutshell... yes.

In 1997, Hurricane Nora made landfall on the Baja peninsula... it later knocked over some trailers and Arizona. But in 2003 article in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Atmospheric Sciences:

"...Scientists were surprised to find what appeared to be frozen plankton in some cirrus crystals collected by research aircraft over Oklahoma, far from the Pacific Ocean. This was the first time examples of microscopic marine life, like plankton, were seen as "nuclei" of ice crystals in the cirrus clouds of a hurricane...."

Plankton... in ice crystals... IN OKLAHOMA.

So, my answer was clear, Hurricanes can loft what ever is floating in the ocean and carry it inland. And what is in and around Oklahoma... the major food production areas of the United States. How will wheat respond to oil? I know that as a kid, we found out that grass doesn't respond too well to petrol products. How about that dispersant? Copious amounts of that have been let loose.... 2-Butoxyethanol (a paint thinner) Organic sulfonic acid salts (not NaCl), Propylene Glycol and in the other version Hydrotreated light petroleum distillates.

I wonder how the crops will respond to that.... And June is just around the corner

*sigh....

Which is why we've been telling people to what?  Garden!  More on gardening in Monday's column....

 

Friday at the WuJo:  Past Pizza

The idea that reality splits off every so often and then comes back together again - slightly different has been an emergent theme at the WuJo - where Reality and Science square off on the mat with observed curiosities.   Remember that story a while back about the reader who swears that both he and his wife ate the same piece of pizza for lunch in one 'time-slip' event?  We start from there and this reader email:

"Yesterday I had my bike on the car rack and was headed up the hill toward the mountain. The last community there before I get into the canyon has a park that just opened. I was driving by remembering when I biked through the park last week, could remember going off the pavement then coming back into the parking lot and making a loop through. The memory was me on the bicycle riding. But…something was itching me that it wasn’t right. I pulled over in the canyon and thought hard..what was wrong with that…then it hit me, I have never bicycled the 6 miles up the hill to the canyon, I always drove to the canyon and biked from there. Then I remembered I drove to the park last week and watched someone bike through the park in the exact path my memory had me biking through the park. I only parked and viewed from a distance, however my memory produced details of the dirt path and the parking lot and the feeling of the wind going through me was very real until the memory collapsed, then it was like it never existed. What happened? Don’t know. Did I mentally absorb the bike riders memory unintentionally by psychic force? Whomever he is, is he swearing right now that he drove to the park last week when he actually rode his bike??? Oh and…the park is under a set of very high voltage electrical transmission lines (towers).

I had one other thing like this happen about 8 months ago when I was at a red light. Suddenly I came very spacey…had trouble paying attention. I looked up at the light and it was green. I proceeded into the intersections and almost t-boned someone coming through the intersection. I honked waved as he almost killed me by blowing the light. I looked up at the light and it was red, the intersection light for the cross traffic was just turning yellow, then my light turned green. The first green light I seen never happened! It took me second or so to shake myself out of the trance my brain drifted into.

In both these situations I feel that some static electrical force may have altered my perception of reality and memory of events. With the amount of cell phone, tv and radio signals being broadcast every day, any small electromagnetic occurrence within our locale, natural, manmade or otherwise, can tip our brains over the edge and start producing false memories..or even more wilder, can cause our thought to transpose per say…with another individual. As the memory is a frequency in the brains of individuals."

There's something there, alright.  Just too much persistent rumors of odd things happening when multiple high density wave fronts are about.  Once we toss aside the purported Philadelphia Experiment effects, and then trash can the Montauk experiment, there are still other dabblers in time/space warping that seem to point to something there.

 

One example is the Hutchison effect, which you can read up on here - and then YouTube it for some way cool vids.

 

Then there's the Fran De Aquino paper "Gravity Control by means of Electromagnetic Field through Gas or Plasma at ultra-low Pressure" that we've covered before.

 

From what I've been able to figure, there may be some real effects here - and one source claims to me that organic light emitting diode screens about to come on the market will be key to breakthroughs in this regard and are 'already there' in the upper .mil circles, but only rumors and nothing I've been able to duplicate in my lab here at the ranch.

 

Still, I've actually got a test plan in mind now which will look for even subtle variances with low power levels by comparing frequencies of multiple crystal oscillators (frequency standards).  The idea being that one inside any 'time effect' or 'space effect' field should show a frequency shift which ought to be measurable.

 

If what I have in mind works, believe me, I'll tell you about it just as soon as the provision patent ap is filed.  But is there time for this to come along as a new technology?  Depends what I can get done by November, doesn't it?  I mean if Clif's work is right...

 

Music Going Really Is Going to the Dogs

The report on the BBC that "Lou Reed and wife stage 'high frequency' dog concert" is more than just another walk on the wild side, as I figure it.

 

Odds are good this will answer an age-old question about dogs:  Is their Bach really worse than their bite? 

----

Ya'll come back soon, ya hear?  The groans ought to have died down and the Pun Police paid off again by Monday.  With the markets closed, we may be able to do some serious stand-up.

 

 

Send your comments to george@ure.net


Shop Till You Drop Department:


Peoplenomics This Week

ELE 2: Extinction Level Economics

Let's see what Santa has in his bag of goodies this week, after last week's fine demonstration of how dangerous a calculator can be when used as a BS Detector around ridiculous low-ball claims about the size of BP's Gulf Ocean Murder.  Ah, here we go:  A nice discussion of Extinction Level Economics, an assortment of new acronyms that are about to go mainstream (including GOOD, GOOF, GOOL, and GOOT).  Plus a few follow-up notes on how Hollywood programs society (at some pretty interesting levels).  Like the guy at the cash register says, change in inevitable.

 

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Dream A Little Dream...

If you have an especially vivid dream that seems to have something to do with the future, please write it down so others can look it over for possible future/predictive values.  Simple go to www.nationaldreamcenter.com and click over to the DreamBase.

 

Cookie Video

The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager.  You can see it here.

 

I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great.  First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM).  Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:

 

Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies.  Bonus:  You computer may run faster. 

 

"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn't, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"

 

 Buy Now

 

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too.....  Click here for the index and details.

 

MyGroPonics

My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics.  It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight).  Sound interesting?  It's just $10 bucks here...

 

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Pass It On

A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings.  If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them.  Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'.  Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..."

----

Last week's report is always here. 

 


Thursday May 27, 2010 

Special Update

Remember that "Big Earthquake"?

I mentioned that a 'Presto?" alert told us that late Wednesday or early Thursday there would probably be a largish earthquake due to a partially Earth-directed coronal mass ejection from the Sun?

 

A couple of readers remember:

George,

Still love your site and the last “Shape of Things To Come Report” from Cliff was interesting too. We’ve been monitoring large earthquakes and relationships with Sunspots and CME’s as well. As you also stated, there appears to be some correlation between them but as we don’t have a control environment to test, it is pure speculation, scientifically speaking.

 

All purely coincidental, I tell yah...purely coincidental...maps and such here.

 

Rally Resumes

Yeah, yeah, I know, you're thinking "Ure!  What the hell happened to your rally yesterday?  Petered out in no time..."

 

Come on - lighten up - got up 135 points and change before tanking, didn't it?  And we should see it go up at least that much - maybe even a couple of hundred points in today's session.  But this site doesn't offer financial advice or (especially) trading advice.  You're on your own there, but I expect to get back on the short side of things maybe tomorrow, maybe Monday...we'll see...

 

Europe is all green today...and the futures in the US are up strongly and as I pointed out yesterday, sure we may have some disasters out there (the gulf comes to mind...) why except for a major earthquake, what could go wrong?

 

The latest report on GDP sounds encouraging...

"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the first quarter of 2010, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP had increased 5.6 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from state and local government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, a downturn in residential fixed investment, a larger decrease in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an acceleration in PCE and a deceleration in imports.

Motor vehicle output added 0.49 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.45 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change. Final sales of computers added 0.18 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.01 percentage point to the fourth- quarter change.

If you like numbers, don't be surprised by a better than expected report on personal incomes when it comes out tomorrow, either.

 

Employment figures are out for the week:

In the week ending May 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 460,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 474,000. The 4-week moving average was 456,500, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 454,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending May 15, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 15 was 4,607,000, a decrease of 49,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,656,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,637,250, a decrease of 11,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,648,750.

The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 5.134 million.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 404,325 in the week ending May 22, a decrease of 5,765 from the previous week. There were 538,311 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4 percent during the week ending May 15, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,381,421, a decrease of 88,300 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,153,284.

That brings us to item #2...

 

Puffed Up Jobs #'s

I just love John Crudele's ongoing exposure in the NY Post ("Two more Census workers blow the whistle") on how Census workers got fires and rehired to make it look like more hiring has been going on that is really the case.

 

Our only problem around here is:  At which point are we supposed to look surprised?  But an 'attaboy" award to Crudele...again...and to the Post for having some balls to go after the story.

 

Working "Top Kill"

One of my friends in the oil industry sent along a drawing he'd gotten from BP which outlined some of the difficulties of the 'top kill' operations now ongoing at the oil spill source off Louisiana.  "Think of it as a hugely complicated ballet," he told me. 

 

"Each one of those surface ships - the big ones - lease at $8-10 million a day - and that's before you get the remote submersibles going - some of them are $5,000 an hour - and then you need skilled operators for them.  On top of that, there's so much equipment on scene it's almost like and air traffic control problem keeping all the ROV cables from snagging on one another..." my source continued before filling me in on the special oil-based mud used for injecting...

 

 

We wish them all the luck in the world, but linguistically the odds are much less than the 40-60% chance local oilmen cite that the undersea voilcano will be stopped any time soon by this 'top kill" effort. 

 

The predictive linguistics carry on this track out 19-months, although we can only hope that lots of that language will relate to references back to current events...  100- miles of coastline now fouled and the number keeps increasing...

 

Did I mention oil is back over $73 this morning?  No doubt part of that on word that the WH is planning to extend the ban on new offshore drilling.

 

And the blame game is underway with reports of a heated debate on the rig shortly before the explosion...

 

---

Linguini:  Now that people are using the term "voilcano" with some regularity, the next linguistic stop seems to be the new word for illnesses induced by the fumes from the mess.  Favorite one so far the the combination of spill and illness into "spillness".  Something to ponder while hiking north later this year.

 

Korea Rumblings

May seem like wild ramblings, but there's a report that a US submarine may have been involved in the sinking of the South Korean patrol boat last month - and that a US sub may have gone down -- serious charges that are floating about.  Wild speculation, 99.9% unlikely BUT if you 'suddenly' hear about a US sub going down in extremely deep waters (to the point where recovery/investigation is impossible) then the rumors and speculation probabilities would flip the t'other way.

 

Meantime, China is going to back North Korea from further sanctions and such if they can - and China has massive leverage given their economic standing in the world. North Korea talking 'all out war'.

 

Iffy Banks

A reader sent along a note that Weiss Ratings has a list of the "Weakest Banks and Thrifts" in the US.  They are sorted by state...and you can find a list of the strongest banks, too.

 

Depression 2.0 and M3

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the UK's Telegraph has noticed the collapse of M3 here lately, something we've mentioned now and again.  A read of his "US money supply plunges at 1930's pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus" should be a wake-up call for those who don't regularly look at M3 reconstructed over on Trader Bart's site.

 

As a practical matter, what this all boils down to is if you're looking for bank lending to lighten up any time soon, don't bother.  My deflationist pal Jas Jain has to be watching these developments thinking "I told you so" (which, to his credit he did), but people won't believe we're really in the Second Depression until year's end, by which time, most people will be beggared and broke.

 

Fortunately, there's a fine distinction between words that will save us which you ought to get firmly in mind ahead of time:  Broke means 'without money". 

 

"Poor" is something else again but with he right mental attitude none of us should ever be 'poor'.  We might get hungry, might be without money, but whatever happens in months ahead, with so much difficulty yet to come, don't let yourself become 'poor'.  You're never broke between the ears.

 

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Coping: Fake Alien Alert

Here's an interesting assertion for you to plumb: the father of the US rocket program (borrowed from Nazi Germany after WW II) Wernher "Von Braun: Illuminati Plan For E.T. Deception..."

 

Not that this is the first place the idea has appeared.  It's been kicking around since Report from Iron Mountain on the Possibility and Desirability of Peace.  That Vietnam war era classic laid out the problem that the world would need something that would cause people to continue paying half of everything they make (and over 75% in some European countries) to governments which can only rule people who are cooperative. 

 

What do you need in order to keep people working (as told) and paying taxes?  Why, an unbeatable external threat of course!  Without appropriate wars (or war substitutes) argued Iron Mountain, people would not have any particular reason to be compliant - and that'd be a problem for the PowersThatBe.

 

Which is why at some never-mentioned economic level - lacking a good threat since SARS, swine and so on failed - we find America still off warring in the Oilstans. The odd environmental disaster (playing out in the Gulf of Mexico) also serves to build control over people, especially those who are in nearby states who might be forced to relocate should the fear factors be ramped up high enough.

 

Next question?

"Dear Mr. Ure,

Will once again use your consistent and solid way of seeing the world’s big picture.

Based on mr. High latest report and europe's current situation we see day by day rumors rising concerning rupture in the euro zone ( the fact that key governments (Germany and France) are denying it make it more plausible than ever).

The effects of a possible rupture are the root of my question, my recent readings and studies on the PTB have always indicated an intensification of countries bonds by currencies and political dependence. The question is a simple one at least on the questioning side: How could a rupture architected by the PTB and “operationalzed” by their minions play a role in their idea of “world’s political and financial centralization”?

You may not like the answer here, since it's kinda complicated.  But, if my read of the situation is right, the PTB seem to be using a stair-stepping methodology to move toward control.

 

In other words, turn up the heat on the EU for a while, then appear to be backing off with a bit of 'break up talk' while other instruments of power & control like the WHO move ahead with finding a revenue base for the One Worlder scams. 

 

Interestingly, once I saw the report recently that "U.N. internet tax dead - for now" I was reminded that this is the most dangerous of times since we can fight scams that are public.  The task is always getting ahead of the curve so we - the people - can decide on the next tax and control effort.

 

What they need are a couple of good crisis situations globally which could coerce everyone into paying 'global tribute'.  Then, once there's a source of revenue, then you simply move the compliant minions into figurehead positions and tell them what to do from the sidelines.

 

See where Canada's PM  Stephen Harper is going to Europe to meet bank tax advocates? ( To clarify: Harper is anti-tax...)

 

From my perspective, anyone who goes anywhere (to clarify: not just Canadian) to talk about the PTB plans for global indenture and tax ought to be declared guilty of high treason on the spot.  I mean, the good people of Canada (and to clarify: thye US etc) should only voluntarily be involved in helping people anywhere else, right?

 

What we're seeing is the financial equivalent of goon squads going around creating crisis after crisis and using it to remove local control of government from the world's citizenry.

 

This doesn't just go on at the top of the PTB foodchain, of course.  States are lusting after internet revenues, too.  Which is what's going on behind headlines like "California Lawmakers propose Internet Tax".

 

The mantra is "control and tax" or "tax and control".

 

The PTB (in case you hadn't noticed) usually belong to one or two camps each, but never a universal camp.  Which is how one way of looking at the contest for World Governance is [presently] fractured.  You've got EU types going for a major regional/global revenue base while there are UN supporters (a lot of 'professional' political hacks in this crowd) who are going for a UN solution. 

 

Then you have other groups which want to go it alone - and have the power to do so cause they are ascendant in global affairs and have vibrant economies - at least compared to the economic has-beens like the EU and to some lesser extent, the US.  Which is why we look at BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) as another power block.

 

I hope you noticed that Daniel Estulin, author of The True Story of the Bilderberg Group has been invited to speak to the European Parliament June first.  In this curious battle for global dominance, you can often catch glimpses of how one faction gathers intelligence about another faction.  So who's going to win?  The Davos insiders?  Bilderbergers?  BRIC's?  UN supporters?  Ah, the glory of battle in the limelight of the MSM, huh?
 

The knowledgeable observer, probably figures that the real global war underway now is amongst factions of the PTB - each seeking a global income stream of some kind to support their further ascension to global controllers. 

 

The thoughtful observer also appreciates the fine duality of the apparent versus underlying strategic contest, which at one level is humans versus power freaks and blue bloods, but at another breaks down into multiple factionalized players, each with a control agenda of their own since unanimity of global power grabbing has been elusive.

 

Every so often a "Fake Alien Warning" comes along to remind us to ask which faction of the PTB  has control over the ex-Nazi "Rule the World" foundations (laid out in Hitler's Mein Kampf: the Official Nazi Translation ) that may have taken the knowledge gathered from horrific medical experiments in WW II far beyond what the old Gregory Peck movie "The Boys from Brazil" laid out and gone and built "aliens" with it.

 

All of which is 'old hat' to long time observers of this other layer of reality...folks like researcher Jim Marrs who laid it out in The Rise of the Fourth Reich: The Secret Societies That Threaten to Take Over America.

 

"Preposterous!" you're thinking.  "Why a person would have to be a raving fool to believe such blather...

 

Let me ask you, who's more nuts?  Those that are the unwitting pawns that put up with this anti-human condition and fail to see how corpgov has even co-opted their churches with Rovian turned Rahmian 'faith-based initiatives' OR those that see the game for what it is...power-seeking despots, each wrapping themselves up with this holy cause or that, while seeking to bilk you into paying tribute for conditions you had no conscious hand in creating, but which were deliberately engineered as mechanisms of control and power?

 

Bad news sport:  You aren't still looking for change are you?  Sorry to remind you of this but you're in a casino where the dice are loaded, the deck is stacked, and the House is out to get all your money if it can.  The best move in such situations is obvious:  Enjoy the free drinks but don't gamble here.

 

It's the dialect in practice - the intersection of the purported warning from Wernher Von Braun and Iron Mountain with factions spying on one another while grabbing for the world's purse strings - with predictive conditioning playing on the MSM and peeking out of  modelspace almost as a trailer for a coming big screen feature this November. 

 

The previews are in the headlines every day. Just usually not as obvious as today's fake alien warning.

 


Wednesday May 26, 2010

Rally From the Dead

Lazarus walks Wall Street today is nice way to sum up today:  That stocks are in for a good bounce should be about as surprising to anyone serious about markets as, oh, say the tide coming in.  That's how markets are wired. 

 

The market goes down in bear markets, but it comes back up every so often to let 'true believers' (or is that coax real fools?) back in on the long side, while the more seasoned players....which is to say those of us who have lost several fortunes worth in our trading lives... know get a sense about when it's time to get out of short positions, however briefly, while the crop of newcomers are lined up to be parted from their cash.

 

And so (with 85% cash going to 100% cash at the open) that I watch the rally going on in Europe this morning where every single market was up earlier when I looked and think to myself "I wonder if this will be IT for a while and a real rally get underway?" 

 

As if to answer the question, in pops an email from Robin Landry to his colleagues in the investment business:

"Hi Everyone,

My count has the Dow ending another wave 1 down (see attached chart) and is now in a small wave 2 rally to the 10,200-10,450 area before turning back down in another decline that should eventually reach the 8500-8000 area for wave (3). There are a couple more aggressive counts not shown on the chart so be prepared for surprises to the downside, if my count is too conservative. One of the things I have learned over the last 36 years of analyzing the markets is that they can fool everyone sometime. The tools that many analyst have used over the last 80-90 years, while still helpful, don’t always work on a decline of this magnitude. In this type of BEAR Market the buy signals don’t work as well as the sell signals. As I have said many times over the years, I believe we are in a decline, which Elliott Wave analyst label as a Grand Super Cycle decline, which happens approximately every 250 years. Declines of this magnitude usually see changes in government and influence swinging from one country to another. Can you say China? They are especially turbulent and cause most people to lose much of what they have. Debt is the four letter word during these times and we see this in the headlines every day. The need to get out of debt for individuals all the way up to countries is something I have been saying for over 5 years. Hopefully some of you have heeded that advice. The last few days many well known market newsletter writers have joined those of us who use the Elliott Wave as the main tool in our analysis in saying the markets have much more to go on the downside. Those of you who would like to learn more about this type of technical analysis can go to this website www.elliottwave.com and get a wealth of information. If I, and other Wave analyst are correct, Richard Russell had it right when he said that most investors would not recognize the United States by the end of the year. I hope he is wrong and common sense comes back to our leaders in the White House and Congress but so far it does not look good. Since the economy is now more of a global one, the events in Europe and elsewhere are mainly out of our control thus making the problem more complex.

As I have mentioned in earlier updates there are those who believe we are just having a correction after the big rally off the March ’09 lows. If that is correct, which I don’t think it is, then the market has fulfilled a pattern sufficient for the markets to turn up and head for new high’s right away. We shall see. If that turns out to be the case it only means a delay in P3 and not the start of a new run to all time highs but just further rally to my targets I have mentioned before in the 11,800-12200 area. I only bring this up because I expect the calls to increase over the next couple days that the correction is over and I want you to be prepared and not get caught up in the crowd. Let the market tell us what is ahead not the talking heads on TV.

As always I welcome your comments and will answer as time allows.

Robin rlandry@allegiance.tv

BCA Research says more support is needed for the Euro, but no market goes straight down, and no reason to expect this one to be any different.

 

Durables report out this morning can be taking as wildly bullish:

New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $5.6 billion or 2.9 percent to $193.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the fourth increase in the last five months and followed a slight March decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.4 percent. Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $7.0 billion or 16.1 percent to $50.7 billion. This was due to nondefense aircraft and parts which increased $7.3 billion.

 

Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $2.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $196.0 billion. This followed a 2.1 percent March increase. Computers and electronic products, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, had the largest increase, $2.5 billion or 8.1 percent to $33.4 billion.

 

Unfilled Orders Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three of the last four months, increased $3.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $801.3 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent March decrease. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $2.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $480.2 billion.

Watch the herd turn on this stuff...run bears & hide  for a while...and let's just count our winnings...

 

So Where Are We?

I'll keep this short because I was up way past my regular bedtime last night with our visiting seismic friends - the story of being the next Jed Clampett to be continued in a week or two - but the main features that caused the market to tank are not gone, and the general direction of "building tensions" outlined so neatly in Cliff's latest www.halfpasthuman.com "Shape of Things To Come Report" haven't disappeared.

 

But, even in the worst field of dandelions, stickers, thorn bushes and poison ivy, you'll still find the odd blade of grass if you look hard enough - which is what the markets are doing presently.

 

Shipping Figures

One useful metric, at times like this, is looking at various port/shipping data.  Don't remember if I mentioned it here, or on the subscriber side (Peoplenomics.com) last weekend, but rail shipping actually looked pretty good in the latest from the Association of American Railroads, and not to be a doomster let me underscore that bit of good news again:

"The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported that intermodal volume on U.S. freight railroads for the week ended May 15, 2010, reached its highest level since the 47th week of 2008. Carloadings last week also saw gains, with 18 of 19 commodity groups showing increases from the comparable week in 2009.

U.S. railroads originated 290,263 carloads during the week ended May 15, up 16.6 percent from the comparable week in 2009, but down 11.9 percent from 2008. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR now reports 2010 weekly rail traffic with comparison weeks in both 2009 and 2008. "

Whether this is a 'blade of grass among weeds and trash plants' may be cross-checked by looking at West Coast ports data:

 

there are all kinds of footnotes to this data,  which generally looks good in part because 2009 was such a crappy year.  If you're looking for a paper to write in your spare time today, work us up a study comparing current month with 2007 and 2008 figures, presented in Excel and have it on my desk by 5 AM tomorrow.  The only thing offered might be a green star next to your name, but if you're looking for something to do, that'd be more fun than mowing the lawn.  (Unless you have a riding more, an MP3 player, beer, and....well, you get the picture.

 

Makes a good 'bounce story' for the PPT for a while, so until serious problems break out in the EU again (give it time) I'm out of short positions at the open.

 

BP'd: GlobalRev

Not exactly a good spring for BP so far.  No only are there delays getting the 'top kill" worked out, but the WSJ reports the Alaska pipeline was due after a power outage (that resulted in a small spill).  Normally a back-page item, because of who had the problem, it's a bigger deal.

---

If you look closely, you'll see signs of GlobalRev with regard to how global humans are getting along with PTB institutions like big oil.

 

For example, an  oil pipeline was blown up in Yemen on Tuesday. In Nigeria, operations at an Italian oil operation were interrupted in late April, and there's been years worth of pipeline conflict in Iraq.

 

Not to state the obvious (although it's what writers do, mostly) but one of the problems with complex societies is they have so many moving parts that it's impossible to watch all of them at once and as part of GlobalRev this will become more apparent.

 

With first report of 'oil rains" popping up on the net, GlobalRev seems likely to get more traction.

 

Would Nuking The Oil Work?

Interesting input from a reader:

"AF 'bomber guy' here: First, a short tutorial on nuke tactics is in order . . .

For war planning purposes, there are three types of nuclear detonations: - on the surface of land or the ocean - above the surface (air burst of varying altitude -- low to high) - Below the surface (land or water)

Applying these detonation tactics to the Deepwater Horizon rig, the best option is a hybrid undersea 'airburst' (far below the surface of the sea, but just above the sea floor). Using a small yield detonation occurring approx. 100-200' above the damaged well head, this tactic would melt and fuse the sea floor in the immediate blast vicinity, essentially cauterizing the oil well-wound.

To guarantee the drill-wound 'stays shut' after detonation, BP could have tons of debris and concrete standing-by in barges to pump over top of the fused 'well bandage' once the 'all clear' is given.

Your concerns about methane-ice and oil plumes seems legitimate. The intense nuclear detonation temperatures could pose a serious and unknown hazard with this material in the blast area. IMO, this is the most serious danger for such an option, a tough one to model due to the various dynamics of the oil well, methane gas and deep ocean/high pressure environment.

If I were advising BP, the DoD, the DOE and the EPA, I'd ask them to run constant simulations on banks of super computers to model all of the possible blast variables and effects, including their degree of likelihood. Once 'best guess' simulation results are known, the safest and most logical alternative could be approved and employed.

Still, [cue Bob Seger's "Old Time Rock N Roll"] very 'Risky Business!'

That's what I expect is going on right now....simulating everything six-ways-to-Sunday.

 

Bordering On Action

Word that president Obama is sending 1,200 national guard troops to the Mexican border might sound like action.

 

That is, until I get the calculator out.

 

First, the border is 1,969 miles long.  That's one Guardsperson for each 1.64 miles of border. 

 

But now suppose (for the sake of discussion) that it takes six guardspersons behind the scenes to put one on the front lines?  Someone has to cook, some one to run motor pool, command them, communicate them and Lord above all, someone to PR and photo-op them. 

 

250-million people cross that border a year and some estimates run 10,000 illegals per day.  Like I said: Bordering on action...

 

MMS IG Reports

Speaking of big oil, big problems:  If you want to interesting reading, you might thumb through some recent investigations by the inspector general's office at the Minerals Management Service which is in charge of managing government leases in the Gulf.  You'll come across snips like this:

"We initiated this investigation after receiving an anonymous letter, dated October 28, 2008, addressed to the U.S. Attorney’s office in New Orleans, LA, alleging that a number of unnamed Minerals Management Service (MMS) employees had accepted gifts from oil and gas production company representatives. The complainant specifically suggested that MMS employees be investigated for accepting gifts, including hunting and fishing trips, from the [its in the report - G] (***), an oil and gas production company working on oil platforms regulated by the Department of the Interior (DOI).

This is addition to the IG report about use of meth, porn, and what have you by government staff.  Thinking you should put in an application?  They may have openings - soon.  Only allegations at this point but...

 

Terra Shakes

With a 6.4 in the Pacific east of Okinawa.  Is this the quake expected when the earthbound CME gets here late today or early tomorrow?  Don't think so, but wi8th any luck it will be all this week.

 

FedSpeak Department

Uncle Ben's Converted Banks aside, Ben Bernanke was in Tokyo yesterday promoting central bank 'independence, transparency, and accountability with soothing words like:

"To be clear, I am by no means advocating unconditional independence for central banks. First, for its policy independence to be democratically legitimate, the central bank must be accountable to the public for its actions. As I have already mentioned, the goals of policy should be set by the government, not by the central bank itself; and the central bank must regularly demonstrate that it is appropriately pursuing its mandated goals. Demonstrating its fidelity to its mandate in turn requires that the central bank be transparent about its economic outlook and policy strategy, as I will discuss further in a moment. Second, the independence afforded central banks for the making of monetary policy should not be presumed to extend without qualification to its nonmonetary functions. For example, many central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have significant responsibilities for oversight of the banking system. To be effective, bank regulators and supervisors also require an appropriate degree of independence; in particular, the public must be confident that regulators' decisions about the soundness of specific institutions are not unduly influenced by political pressures or lobbying. But for a number of reasons, the nature and scope of the independence granted regulatory agencies is likely to be somewhat different than that afforded monetary policy. In the conduct of its regulatory and supervisory activities, the central bank should enjoy a degree of independence that is no greater and no less than that of other agencies engaged in the same activities; there should be no "spillover" from monetary policy independence to independence in other spheres of activity. In practice, the Federal Reserve engages cooperatively with other agencies of the U.S. government on a wide range of financial and supervisory issues without compromising the independence of monetary policy.

All of which means mostly nothing, near as I can figure.  The problem is that the Fed and Congress operate in cahoots: m Congress overspends, debt runs up, Fed prints money, government pays interest ($224 billion so far since last October, by the way) and the circle is unbroken.

 

GovSpeak

Just exactly what does "US Expands secret military operations: report" in hostile and friendly countries mean?

 

Why can they just say "we're gonna kill more people" which is the whole point of "operations", right?

 

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Coping: Cheerful Optimism

Say, here's some early feedback on Cliff's latest report:

"George,

Cliff’s report is, once again, disturbing. What is most disturbing for me is that I have been warning people for over a year now…anyone who will listen; especially those with whom we go to church and few, if any, have taken these warnings to heart…fewer have taken action. I have always considered myself both articulate and coherent but I have hit a wall. They are so blinded and programmed by our media environment. They are often fascinated and intrigued by our gardening and preparation efforts but pull back as though they have touched a flame when we get into “why.” The image that persistently comes to mind is that my immediate family and I are fleeing to high ground from the tsunami coming, only to turn periodically and see our friends and extended family still playing in the newly exposed surf and discussing how laughably obsessed we are. Cliff’s report lists how those of us who see will be vindicated but I don’t wish to be vindicated at the cost of other people’s death, starvation and torment.

It is almost too late.

Hold on tight, this is going to hurt,"

Yeah, that is a bit of a problem, isn't it?  I don't try to talk too much about such things around other people - I just write it down here on my web site where I'm sure it must sound manic at times, since I seem to be wildly pessimistic and short some days, and on others, I'll be out of my last short position at the open today and that'll be that till we finish the present rally.

 

Talking to people about the future of the world is akin to trying to 'shake' them out of a media-induced stupor - which is why so much emphasis around here on limiting our media consumption to only those items which are actionable rather than getting overly hooked on the entertainment values promoted in society.

 

You have no idea how much money I have saved over the years by not being interested in sports.  Which is not to say I won't watch the final 'two minutes' of a football game now and then - just to see how long 2-minutes can be stretched out, but entertainment - as we were talking about yesterday is a mechanism of mind control.  Give me enough movies focused on mindless bloodshed and I can warp anyone into death-watching morons.

 

But grab the remote outside of my own home?  Nope...and I usually don't start conversations unless someone asks.  Not my job to tell them how crappy the future is, unless they really want to deal with the harsh reality of living in a world full of too many humans, not enough food, greed & money driven governance and a select group of elitists who make really self-serving decisions.

 

One of Cliff's favorite explanations is that "You can't teach a pig to sing.  You'll only get frustrated and anger the pig."  Or, put another way, "Tend your own garden."

 

A snip from, an email sums it up nicely:

"My new word: "voilcano"

It must be 4:20 somewhere."

Don't look now, but I'm stealing that word.

 

National Dream Center Update

Coming into focus is the whole reason I built the National Dream Center database...let me explain:  Got an email this morning from a reader who asks:

"Hello George, just woke up from a dream and in this dream we were being invaded by russia or china all along the gulf coast mainly florida because they did not want to lose their investments in the united states. They chose this time for the invasion in this area because the oil has chased all the people away and made the invasion of troops easier. Have you heard of such a dream before?"

So, in answer to your question: Yes!

 

A dreamer posted this to the 'dreambase' last Saturday:

In this dream I am sent as part of my job with the highway department to deliver county maps to the commander of a regiment of Venezuelan troops. I have a very vivid memory of exactly where I met the troops. (I woke up went down to the basement and smoked a cigarette. Back to sleep and I dream this.) I am at the highway department facility with my coworkers all of us armed and hiding behind equipment engaged in a gun battle with someone. The Venezuelans maybe, not clear on that. There is very vivid detail of our battle. I gave a hand grenade to a friend I had been in the reserves with back in the 70's. He said I don't think I can do this, I said I'll draw their fire pretend we're back @ Fort Leonard Wood. We have to do this, this being take out a machine gun. We did it. Then someone yelled look up and 6 paratroopers we floating into the highway complex. We killed all 6 before they hit the ground. And that's the end of the dream. I don't dream much but when I do its a doozy. I felt kind of wierd for days after I dreamed this.

Whether it actually comes to pass, is another matter.  But what seems significant is that the more of these non-ordinary, vivid dreams people contribute, the better sense we'll have of what's to come.  This is all archetype stuff: But, Spanish-speaking soldiers and invading America from the south at the behest of China or Russia is perking around in people's brains down at the archetype level and while we don't know why exactly, the voilcano is naturally suspect.

 

If the events come to pass, maybe it will be Cuban troops, not Venezuelan, but you see how things are developing a recent rhyming?  It's going on in several other archetype areas, too and as I get time -whatzzat? - we can get into it more...

 

Speaking of which, time's up - got to water the garden, run the well pump a bit, a bite to break the fast, and take a snooze while I wait for this rally in the market to pass so I can get back to making money on the downside...

 


Tuesday May 25, 2010

This Could Get Ugly

Think of this as "Drop until you shop" - for stocks...  Back on May 1st, I told Peoplenomics subscribers that I was 'getting short' the market.  As we arising to face another day the economic treadmill, a hint of what's likely comes from two sources:  The Asia markets which were bleeding red on all fronts overnight, with Taiwan down about 3¼ percent, China Hang Seng down about 3½ percent and Japan down just over 3 percent.

 

Hopes that things would begin to turn around in Europe were dashed when France dropped nearly 3½ percent although German and the yUK were down a bit more than 2½ percent.  Needless to say, it ain't over till it's over, but as I was mentioning in last week's column (see Three Bears, Testing 10,000):

"I won't go into a big long rap about how this CPI report means this, or that. I'll only read from the Book of Landry "Surprises are usually, but not always, on the downside in bear markets..." This CPI is deflationary.

How deflation in everything but necessities will work out depends where your interests lie:

  • If you like to eat, there is no deflation.

  • If you like to buy cars, the car market - especially for high end used cars - has fallen through the floor.  So, when the new CONsumer CONfidence numbers come out this morning, remember that 'downside surprises' mantra.

  • The housing figures from Case-Shiller/S&P are bound to be interesting, too, when they come out.  Just keep in mind that if you look at last Thursday's Money Stocks measure (report H-6 from the Fe3deral Reserve, we notice that April 200's M1 number was $1592.7 while the preliminary April number this year is $1700.6 which makes the case for monetary inflation at the 6.77% annual rate.

 

I'm sure you remember the old definition of "What a statistician is?"

 

"Damn, dude, another one of your doofus jokes?"  Yep...'fraid so...

 

A statistician is someone who puts one foot in buck of ice water and the other foot in a campfire, then looks you bang in the eye and says:  (drum roll) "On average, I'm comfortable!"  (rim shot)

 

Seeing as Ben Bernanke's academic background has been the study of the previous Great Depression, and trying to figure out which formulas fit where back then (which makes an interesting presupposition, doesn't it?) we can see that the combined Fed/Treasury policies are akin to stepping on the gas - just so - while at the same time, stepping on the brakes.

 

May not feel good if you're a homeowner, or trying to sell a high priced toy sports car right now, but the theory goes a long ways toward explaining why the markets are manic and why you can't get 'easy money' loans from the local bank anymore.

 

First, your local bank may not be a bank already, since by my count, 235 banks with 4,941 branches have failed since IndyMac (and including) with another 750+ on death row.

 

But even if they are around, they are likely not doling out loans without liens on first born sons (*not a bad analogy, since war in Korea might spark the return of the draft, simply because we'd be low on military manpower since Rome demonstrated that governments can only occupy so much of the world at once) and then only if you have some track record with the bank, a credit score over 750, don't live along the Gulf of Mexico and.....yada, yada, yada....you're getting the picture.

 

"Stock futures plummet, market set for lower open" is no surprise around here.  The only surprise would be closing above 10,000.

 

To Nuke, Or Not To Nuke

That is the question - or at least seems to be one to ponder going forward.  Although the decision won't weigh on president Obama for a couple of months while other tactics are used/tried, we're seeing an uptick in the number of reports that use of one (or more) small tactical nukes to close off the oil mess in the Gulf of Mexico will be considered: "Nuking the Oil Well" from KVUE (Austin, TX) is a must read. We covered this option coming up a couple of weeks back in Peoplenomics for subscribers.

 

Fortunately, as luck would have it, we keep a real-life full nuclear engineer on staff at UrbanSurvival to field just this type of question (and build innovative coffee warmers and such...).  He offers this:

"I have to chime in here on the subject of using a nuclear weapon as part of a program to seal off the leaking well in Mississippi Canyon 252 (per Peoplenomics #456-B).  In short, no one (in their right mind) would ever light off a warhead in such a scenario.  The tests done using nuclear explosives to modify oil and gas production were all conducted as part of studies to increase gas, and later oil, flow rates.  The fractures induced by nuclear explosions were thought to be useful in opening up flow paths for gas or oil.  Other options were to use the heat to transform oil shales into flowable product.  The studies don't support the use of nukes as a way to seal off a fracture. 

 

Now, if we are looking at this from a radical linguistics point of view, if this "Top Kill" (an interesting term in all the headlines - I wonder how that has populated Clif's dying oceans language?) doesn't work and we have to try something else, odds are you'd see the headlines read something like "The Nuclear Option in the Gulf" since that term is thrown around a lot.  It would probably involve shaped charges and lot's of debris being blasted into the area, followed by cement - but that is just a guess.  Speaking of nuclear, such an option would wind up looking like the sarcophagus over Chernobyl Station #4.  If you are keying your flow charts off of clif's linguistics work, I ask that you keep this in mind as there is no need to overly stress out an already stressed out public (unless you know far more than is being released to the public yet - then I stand corrected).

 

Anyway, I've been wrong before and could be wrong again, but the thought of using a nuclear explosive to seal off a leak doesn't fit with any of the test shots done back in the day.  That said, the world is sliding into a grim abyss and who knows what sorts of bad decisions are going to be made in the coming years.  Thought I'd throw my two cents in.

 

Thanks,

 

(The Urban Reactor Dude --- name withheld for duh reasons)

 

Select References:

 

The Concept and Testing of Formation Fracturing and Nuclear Explosives, and Thoughts on Future Application

 

Nuclear Explosion Petroleum-Stimulation Projects, United States and USSR  (Cost you something since you're not a nuke eng. with the right memberships)

 

The Bronco Oil Shale Study

I was happily keeping this note buried in my inbox (recently weeded down to only 5,000 items), until this talk of nuking came up - again.

 

Here's the problem as I figure it:  The production explosions of the 1970's seem to have been aimed at enhancing oil/gas production, but if my scan of the gray literature on this stuff is right, about all they were able to do was to make a bunch of radioactive natural gas and byproducts.  Good idea, just of limited application.

 

On the other side of the discussion is the reported Russian experience which I think is something like a four out of six success rate (or whatever - that will come out in a few months when comes time to 'sell' the project to the public.

 

Although the public will no doubt drop into mass hysteria mode about any talk of nukes, the real solution would be to use HAARP & related technologies to induce an earthquake with the idea of creating a slip-strike which could close the wounded crust.  But, can't let on too much about that, can we?

 

In lieu of using HAARP, (was that mid Atlantic quake this morning a tune-up / test?) one can envision a kind of simulated small nuclear induced earthquake.  Maybe one largish device (Hiroshima X2 maybe) and then a couple of slightly delayed 'small pusher devices' which would push earth from one side of the leaking well toward what could be a 'hollow' on the other side.

 

All of which might pencil out provided we had perfect knowledge of the pressures, knowledge of how the methane hydrates would react, and so on.  My biggest concerns, however, are that if the nuke shots were too small, they would not do anything but make the environment not only oily but radioactive.  On the other hand, if too big, then the fracturing of rock starts going off (as fracturing was the intent of the early oil & gas production enhancement tests) and you might get the equivalent of popping a pimple, except this pimple would ooze oil instead of...oh oh, not a breakfast time analogy, but you get the idea.

 

The idea of using nukes doesn't bother me.  I know enough about water moderated reactors to figure the odds of significant release of radioactivity from such an effort would be nearly zero.  Reason?  First, the shots would be done in wells which would likely put them 1,000 feet (or so) under the seabed.  Right there, you're talking something that happened somewhat routinely around Las Vegas (can I say commuter flights to Tonopah without everyone getting edgy?).

 

Then on top of what would be an underground test, you have a mile of seawater.  Nope, not too worried about that since under ground (seabed is just wet dirt), and then under water would not be like the shallow water nukes tests off Eneweta.

 

We read further about Operation Wigwam which was conducted in about 2,000 feet of water, 500 miles off San Diego in 1955 which was a 30 kiloton device.  the Hiroshima bomb, for comparison, was 12.5 kT. The plume wasn't too high, although you wouldn't want to vape it...

 

The plume from 1958's Operation Hardtack rose only a reported 1,700 feet and that was set off just 500 feet down.  So, honestly, 10-times deep and then underground?  I wouldn't want to be swimming there at the time, but radioactivity release potential?  Extremely low by my reckoning.

 

That said, it wouldn't be the initial explosion I'd worry about - it'd be the seismographs up north in the minutes to months following.  Why?

 

A successful nuke shot in terms of sealing the leaks might bring on a secondary line of troubles: Touching off major movement of the New Madrid seismic zone which extends almost (and possibly) into the Gulf of Mexico. 

 

Of course, if the leak isn't sealed by the blasts, then oil flow could be massively increased, which  in turn could change the underground pressures which hold up the south end of the Mississippi Delta...and then terms like 'continental subsidence' start coming to mind.  But that's just monkey-mind tripping out.

 

A reread of the seismic history of the region might be of interest here.

 

Ultimately this leads to some very tough decisions (which will come out when the next Shape of Things to Come report is released tomorrow from my friend Cliff (clif) at www.halfpasthuman.com since the predictive linguistics this time around might be fairly labeled instead "predicament linguistics") but you'll get access to that tomorrow.

 

As usual, we will try to stick with the facts as we know them, and not read too far ahead even with the Libretto although we've been talking about Diaspora for a long time around here and strange as it seems, a couple of hundred million people getting up and moving around due to either subsidence or oily death rains really could be a big deal.

===

As Universe has always playfully provided significant additional inputs when I pay attention, so I see it as a grand coincidence that a couple of readers who have pioneered a breakthrough electromagnetic survey technology for oil and gas exploration are coming over this afternoon to have a look at what's under Uretopia Ranch.  We're right next to producing wells here, so that ought to be interesting, but even more so will be understanding the rock we sit on and how much of it is hollow in a sense, filled with oil and injected salt water.

 

With all this going on in the Gulf, it should make for incredibly interesting dinner conversation.  If they give me permission, I'll write it up for tomorrow's report as it really is neat technology. 

 

Universe either has me mistaken for Jed Clampett or realizes that "George's news nose knows news..."

 

Overplaying Oil Rain?

Slate has done a good job of covering the science behinds a major hurricane hitting the Gulf oil slick.  Maybe not as bad as some alarmists have been saying...but of course I'm tapping wood while writing this a mere 470-miles downwind from you-know-what...

 

Terra Shakes

The latest CME is due to arrive tomorrow or early Thursday, so I'll be watching for quakes about then.  You saw the Amazon quake Monday?

 

What was that magnetometer bump yesterday?  Related?  You wanna take a shot at this?

 

Rattle

Turn on the distraction machine, quick!  South Korea making threatening noises...

 

What Do Stars Eat for Breakfast?

Planets.

 

Here you thought I'd say starlets or something tacky!

 

Next Texas Growth Industry?

Looks like expansion of nuke waste dumping could be about to pop up 30-miles north of Odessa/Midland...near Andrews, Texas.

 

Paycheck Comparison

Private sector going down, government sector going up.

 

Quick, look surprised.

 

Rattle

 

 

=== snip and save section ===

 

Coping: Guarding the Gates of Consciousness

Need to have us a meaningful follow-up conversation to yesterday's toucvh on 'predictive programming' in H-Wood movies and such.  A reader sent in this incredibly good summary of his readings on point:


"Nice catch about the "potential" Hollywood/Government Connection.  This is a topic about which I have wanted to write to you, and now that you have brought it up, the timing is finally right.

Allow me to begin by mentioning a movie released in 2008 called Toxic Skies which is about chemtrails.  I have not seen it yet, but plan on it soon.
Here is one viewer's review from the IMDB.com website:

TS is living proof that people have run out of ideas ages ago. Basically, we have another movie about some government/big companies conspiracy to screw the lives of the poor citizens of USA. This time it is all about CHEMTRAILS which are made by airplanes spraying the skies with harmful chemicals, viruses and whatever... It is funny that with so many other sources for bad guys (terrorists, muslin fundamentalists, Ronald MacDonald, soccer hooligans, Paris Hilton, etc...) they still insist on these bad government/bad company type of villains. It is hard to believe that there are people that still fall for this kind of nonsense. On the other hand, we are reminded time and again of human stupidity, because, as we all know, humans believe anything and anyone.

(Now do you see why I often claim to look forward to the end of civilization as we know it?)

I studied film in college and I have seen something in the range of 5000-6000 movies in my life (so far) so please allow me to share with you a few interesting tidbits concerning this topic.

First, a good background piece would be the Nazism and Cinema entry in Wikipedia, (quick link here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism_and_cinema)

The short version:

  • The main goal of the Nazi film policy was to promote escapism, which was designed to distract the population and to keep everybody in good spirits.

  • To subdue film to the goals of propaganda (Gleichschaltung), the Nazi Party subordinated the entire film industry...

  • In the mid-1930s...More and more production companies went bankrupt... The consolidation of the film industry was undoubtedly beneficial for the Nazi government.  a small number of big film production companies were easier to control than a multitude of small ones.

  • High politicians such as Hitler, Goebbels, and Hermann Göring appeared in public flanked by popular German film actors.


Any of that sound familiar?

Second, you can check out some info about the American Version of the cinema propaganda machine on this Berkeley College Blog or about a hundred other websites/books.

The short version:

  • ...there was a time period when movies were incredibly feared due to the Hypodermic Needle Theory which stated that the content of movies would be completely injected into the minds of viewers, with no personal filters or ability for the viewer to think for himself.

  • Through the 1915 Supreme Court case Film Corporation v. Industrial Commission of Ohio, movies were judged to be a business and not an art, giving it no protection under the First Amendment.

  • With the Production Code, we can see the ways in which the government was using its back hand to indirectly control the content that was released.

  • ...the government, under FDR, set up two major institutions.

    • First, the Office of War Information regulated what information about the war was released.

    • Second, the Bureau of Motion Pictures was an agency that directly worked with Hollywood, setting up guidelines... that helped decide which movies could be most beneficial to the American war effort. 


What is left out of this article is the fact that during World War II, the American Population was under a state of sacrifice... many common items were rationed or simply unavailable.  As part of the NEW DEAL with Hollywood, the movies studios were EXEMPT from any form of rationing of any item, i.e., metal, rubber, silk, etc. as they were considered 'ESSENTIAL to the war effort'.

Bottom Line:

Since 1915, the US government and Hollywood have been in bed with each other.
 

The relationship was publicly solidified in the WWII years.
 

A power struggle emerged during the McCarthy/Blacklisting years... Hollywood caved in.
 

Although it isn't as publicly acknowledged now, there is much evidence that the same propaganda-based relationship continues today.

You noted in your Friday column that films that depict ideas that are perhaps 'close to the truth' about an underground or taboo subject may be part of the propaganda machine of government/Hollywood to publicly ridicule an idea by making it a work of fiction.

By taking something tangible, or at least possible, and making it fantastic/beyond belief, it produces the effect of negating the entire possibility...

Consider two movies by M. Night Shyamalan: Lady In The Water and Signs

Lady In The Water - An obvious work of fiction that tells a fairy-tale type story in a modern, realistic setting, filled with fantastic creatures and adventure.


Signs - An obvious work of fiction, based upon the very real phenomenon of crop circles, but with a fantastic story of alien invasion and abduction.

The arguments are self-apparent.  The skeptic's job is easy, but the majority of people (the marginal, non-thinking sheeple that live all around us) can easily be persuaded that all crop circles must be man-made, simply because it appears in a major motion picture blockbuster.  And they often conclude this without doing any further research or analysis.

Don't even get me started on Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull.

Here is my list of movies that by their very existence as works of fiction, tends to negate the possibility of the story being reality-based in the minds of the viewing public:


(Side Note: Hollywood, like everyone else, is all about maximizing profit, which sadly means the bigger the blockbuster, the bigger the lie/cover-up.)

Paranormal Phenomenon:
Paranormal Activity
1408
The Sixth Sense
Poltergeist
Witchboard
The Exorcist

Alien Existence/Contact:
V (TV Series - Alien Reptilians that appear as humans)
X-Files (TV Series and Movies)
Signs
Contact
Independence Day
The Abyss (Aliens underwater)
2001: A Space Odyssey

TEOTWAWKI/Cataclysms:
The Road
The Book of Eli
2012
Armageddon (Turned a cataclysm into a comedy!)
Deep Impact
12 Monkeys
The Stand
Mad Max/The Road Warrior

(I'd put in The Postman - G)

Genetically Altered People/Creatures:
Avatar
Splice
Spider-Man
Jurassic Park
Species
The Fly
The Island of Dr. Moreau

Governmental Conspiracy:
Toxic Skies
National Treasure
V for Vendetta
X-Files
The Andromeda Strain
Capricorn One

I guess the unanswerable question is this:  How much influence does the government have in making sure these movies are made?  Any?  Partial?  Total?

The answer doesn't really matter to me.  I enjoy movies for what they are, and then go about my business as usual. 

 

If I knew for a fact that the government was using movies as a propaganda tool to further confuse, desensitize, or dumb-down the population, it would just give me another reason to despise them, and I have a plethora of reasons already.  I'm already living inside the thorn bush... one more thorn in my side wouldn't even be noticed at this point.

Well, now that you mention it, the government really is aware that the biggest threat from the internet is NOT terrorism, but an awakening people who might 'get in the way' of things.  So whatever you do, don't click over here to the government's own "Conspiracy theories and Misinformation" page on the www.america.gov site and see what the official lines are.

 

This site officially proclaims that (on health, for example) that:

"Health is a critically important issue for everyone. When new, life-threatening diseases emerge, such as AIDS, the H1N1 flu, and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), people are alarmed and can seize on conspiracy theories to explain their sudden appearance."

What is left unsaid is that in each of these cases, there have been claims made that the diseases were lab-created with a profit motive and that the recent decision of the WHO to go for a tax on the internet is about all the proof a thinking person needs to at least ask for independent third-party analysis.  Oh, the government sight doesn't tally up the rip-off of the last round of "Killer flu" vaccine monies, either.

 

And even though the 9/11 event has been publicly exposed by architects and engineers, the 'official' government position outing conspiracy theories and misinformation insists that:

"There was no “controlled demolition” of the World Trade Center towers. Instead, the unprecedented attack by hijacked airliners full of jet fuel destroyed support pillars, loosened fireproofing insulation, and ignited fires that destroyed the twin towers."

As I've told you many times, when the 'net becomes too much of a threat to ongoing operations of the PTB, they will just shut it down.  Maybe under the premise of 'protecting the public from misinformation' or perhaps because "only official news sources" accredited by guess who? will be 'authorized".  H-Wood is 'authorized' as our emailer seems to imply.

 

Right about then, when blogging and public discussion is held as seditious or worse, you'll want to have your GOOD bag packed because when America wakes up to 97 years of corpgov/bankster plundering of The Constitution and the ideals America, there'll be a few people around who will be really pissed and ready to take independent action on all fronts.

 

Paradoxically, control mechanisms aimed at preventing AmRev2 seem more likely to precipitate it. 

 

The key thing to do early on is post guards around your consciousness and avoid being caught in mind traps where problems will be presented with prepackaged conclusions.  That's how the PTB work.

 

Want my take on the www.america.gov "Conspiracy Theories" page? See if this sounds familiar:   "Admit northing. Deny everything.  Make counteraccusations."

 

Angry Readers File

Do I make things sound overly grim?  Sorry about that.  But here's a sampling of my emails:

>>> What will happen to Florida real estate prices there in the land Elaine refers to as "Home of the newly-wed and nearly-dead crowd"?<<<

The idea that Corporate Moguls will experience 75% drops in the value of their Gulf-front mansions leaves me...well, not nearly so delighted as the image of seven or eight hundred of them in mid-denefenestration, on their way to the pavement on Wall Street...but, still, pretty good!"

Oh, and here's a friendly gem under the subject line "Ure an Idiot"

"Project Blue Beam?

I read your blog to figure the mindset of middle class Americans with no education just so I can be prepared for the coming social unrest caused by people like you and your delusional interpretations of simple economic and planetary cycles. "

No, come on, admit it: you read my site because it's real, usually way ahead of the curve, and the effects of your bluepill brainwashington (sic) are starting to wear off.

Fortunately, my 'delusional interpretations of economic" cycles are only up  50-something percent YTD.  Worse:  My current fave holding is only up a further 6.61% in the pre-market today. 

"Ure an Idiot" is right, I will grant you that.


Monday May 24, 2010

Special Update

Earthquake Watch

Just in one of those Presto!  Alerts:

"An eruption in the long filament channel in the northern hemisphere (the center of the channel is located around N20W10) was detected by SOHO/EIT starting from 17:00 UT on May 23. It was accompanied by extended coronal dimmings and a post-eruptive arcade. An associated long-duration B1.4 flare peaked at 18:43 UT. At the moment of writing the LASCO data is not available, so it is impossible to determine if the eruption was accompanied by a halo CME. However, the associated CME was detected by SECCHI/COR2 onboard both STEREO spacecraft starting from 17:54 UT. The estimated CME plane-of-the-sky speed is around 350 km/s.</br>Due to the position of the CME source region across the central meridian (as seen from the Earth) and angular extent of the CME crossing the ecliptic plane, we expect the corresponding ICME to arrive to the Earth late on May 26 - early on May 27.

Sure  hope this doesn't set up my "Los Angeles Wednesday" earthquake dream...the link between quakes and CME arrivals is purely speculative but seems to make intuitive sense...slap a ball with energy and what?

 

Road to Total War 2.0

Subtle doesn't always work, although I often make the mistake of hoping it will - just this once.  So try and think back to a few months ago when I suggested you put a block of time aside and read the Rand paper "The Road to Total War" by Frederick Sallagar.  Welcome to another Monday here in version 2.0.

 

The reason has everything to do with trying to understand the economic Long Wave which is the core of this site, which is based on (among others) the work of Nikolai Kondratiev.  When you do even a quick read of the subject matter (and Wikipedia makes this a 5-minute exercise here)

we have some reason to ponder now whether the K Waves (as they were known) were not perhaps a misinterpretation of something else.  Chart, please?

 

File:Kondratieff Wave.svg

 

Intimately involved with the K Wave theory is a parallel idea that major wars come at both the top and bottom of these economic waves.  Often, the Civil War in the US is cited as a 'peak war', WW I a slightly misplaced K Wave Bottom, WW 2 a 'trough war', the Vietnam war a 'peak war' and so forth.

 

The problem which is upon us is that the K Wave theory while holding a certain amount of intellectual curiosity since it goes back to grain prices in Europe earlier than medieval times, and thus seems to be 'solid' but upon inspection, we expect the rise of the role of Capital what seems to have occurred more recently is an evolution of the K Wave into a three Kuznet waves move.

 

Little early for all this?  Simon Kuznets won a 1971 Nobel prize for his work on the 20-something year cycles that occur based on other business cycles.

 

While backwardized economic theorists hold that the 10-minute time out of the US stock market in the so-called mini-Crash of 1987 was a properly-timed market break which could be counted as a Kondratieff market turn, inspection of the business cycles in play in those time - not to mention a look at an inflation-adjusted Dow chart - reveals such thinking to be plain poppycock.

 

When you get serious about studying this stuff, the works of Michael Alexander including The Kondratiev Cycle: A generational interpretation come to mind, since it's very close (and a slightly zoomed out conceptual level) to the highly recommended work of my friend Jim Goulding (Trader Jim) who besides have an excellent blog "Mean is Out: Mean bosses are no longer needed, etc." has a fine work which looks at long waves in the economy from a Strauss & Howe (The Fourth Turning) perspective called simply Winter Is Coming which is free on the net here.

 

"Damn dude, lotta foreplay there...you gonna get to a point sooner or later?"

 

Tisk, tisk!  Such impatience...what should already have formed in your head (depending on how much fluoride is in your water and how many minutes a day you're on a cell phone is the notion that economics and social cycles may seem a bit off because what I'd bet is happening is that the K Waves are synching up on three Kuznets waves.

 

During this 'entraining' period (as wave structures change in economic terms due to adjustments in the realities of everyday living occur) is that events become choppy and on a very superficial level feel 'unpredictable'.

 

 Yet, at some level they are.  An inflation-adjusted Dow shows that we've completed a five wave advance since the market break in 1920 - really the first big marker post WW I of the new 'telecommunicated world view' and since then the entraining process has been marching along to its beat of a distant - not to mention seldom heard because we're all too busy to think about thinks like that - drummer.

---

Fast Forward To the Rand Paper

This morning's touchstone concept emerges out of the overnight fog: Given all the data, are we (humans) about to be sucked into something like "Total War 2.0?"

 

If so, what might the elements be?  Well, ALL elements, of course.  We ought to see nearly global warfare, for example.  Look at what fraction of America's best and brightest are tied up in war-making or support of war-making and I ask you, are we not close?

 

We would have concerns about sabotage and rear-guard actions and if the War on Terror doesn't qualify as an analog to WW 2, I don't know what could?  And the near i8mpossibility for Middle Class humans in the US to flee for a safer land certainly echoes of 1939 Germany, although the Gestapo had a more menacing look than economic balls & chains strapped on current day ex-pats who wish to leave for tax reasons in modern times.

 

Total War 2.0 would also include attacks on e-commerce infrastructure - that's certainly a given; that's only a matter of when not if

 

TW2 would also have a nice helping of environmental disaster which might "kill a third of the oceans and things therein" which is getting uncomfortably close.

 

And capping it all off would be an unsolvable economic crisis which seems to have gained legs of its own.  Need I mention stock futures are down again in the pre-open?  Gold is rebounding as people seek something safer than dollars, which have their own set of problems now that China has indicated it will revalue its currency - within three or four months is the bet going around Deutsche Bank.

 

"So how is a reasonable person to cope?"

 

Why that's obvious!  You need to get involved with one of the State-sponsored addiction programs.  Go to a doctor, declare you're feelings of stress and Presto!  They'll give you drugs that are more dangerous than marijuana, but which can't be made at home, and so Government gets to tax it and not to mention all that hot lobby money to get regulations moved just thus and so in the District of Corruption.

 

Aren't you glad the solutions to so many of life's problems - like the March to Total War 2.0 - are so easily solved?  Say, is that is decaf you're drinking, right?

 

What's the Stew than makes up Total War?  Read on...

 

Deflation

Lookie here: "Fed’s Forsaken M3 Money Gauge Points to Deflation: Chart of Day "  Not that it hasn't been a headline around before since we click on Trader Bart's M3 Reconstructed about every 23-minutes to watch the collapse...

 

9% annual deflation rate...why that must mean the money velocity is toast...which explains why I haven't had a single offer on my 911/930 for sale on eBay.  Did find out it is the factory 930 turbo-look...but not a single bid yet.  May not end up with a plane after all.

 

Beefing Up Korea

South Korea has pinned the sinking of one of its naval ships on North Korea, so the US is backing the South in the latest round of pressure increase.

 

Crying Over Spilt Gulf

"Requiem for the Gulf"  is getting traction over at YouTube.

 

BP's ability is being questioned on many fronts now - especially as lies (partial truths are lies around here) about flow rate are being exposed...

 

The flow of ships heading out of the GOM is interesting to watch over at http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/ Boxes 566, 191, 17, and 12 in particular on the marine traffic maps in near real-time. Kinda like watching the marine version of Exodus at times...although slower today.

 

See where Dengue Fever has broken out in Key West recently?  What do you think - put on the thinking cap here - will happen to Florida real estate prices there in the land Elaine refers to as "Home of the newly-wed and nearly-dead crowd"?

 

Say, won't that oil spill cut down mosquito populations?  See how this is all working out?

---

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal seems seriously pissed at the slow federal response.  This 'harmonic of KatRita' mess is one of the main topics in the short term values (3-weeks to 3-month) futures when the next HalfPastHuman "Shape of Things to Come report is released...Wednesday so keep clicking on www.halfpasthuman.com about then.  $10.  The advisory from Cliff:

"Hello Everyone,

Due to the pressures (pun acknowledged) of the urgency of the Gulf oil volcano situation, as well as the rising impacts of costs of production of the Shape reports, I decided to bring the reports out in a slightly different format. The change is that there will be 2/two reports which are interpretations of the ‘immediacy values’ and the ‘shorter term value’ data types only. Then, a third report will be produced which will examine the longer term data as well. The immediacy/shorter term reports will not be as lengthy as the total interpretation. The Shape reports remain 10 FRN’s (USofA dollars) per report. This change will be in effect at least through the Summer of 2010.

Clif "

There are all kinds of rumors flying around the net, but until we get traceable reports to an established source, or one of our own sources in the industry sheds light, we'll just forego the alarmists reports and just take the prudent preparations outlined for Peoplenomics subscribers this weekend.

 

Arms Boner or Planners

For whatever reasons, the US has agreed to relax sanctions on a Russian arms exporting outfit.  Oh...and this goes nicely with our "Road to Total War 2.0 theory: Iran sanctions won't stop Russian missile deliveries to Iran.

 

Not Reassuring

"New Financial Rules might not prevent next crisis" said a report out Sunday.  Well, ain't that peachy?  So why bother?

 

Web Rights?

There is no such thing, of course as an email from a reader points out:

Dear Mr. Ure,

 

Here is the thin end of the wedge as the Canadian federal government has begun a pilot project where forums and social media sites are monitored so that federal employees can step in and correct "misinformation" about government policies. Citizens must not be drinking their recommended complement of eight glasses of fluoride-laced water per day.

Patience.  When post Gulf Disaster Famine shows up, there will be better things to do.

 

=== snip and save section ===

 

Coping: The End of Radio?

One of the 'game changers' in the wings is the report that "Quantum teleportation achieved over 16 kM".  All of which makes communicating without a traditional radio signal possible.

 

That said, the big caveat is that this cannot be done without a conventional link to set up time synchronization between entangled photons...but why do I sense that at some core level that's what humans do down at the dream/preconscious level with just the right 'tuners' which might include - depending on culture - drugs, mediations, and what have you's?

 

What I'm waiting for is the "do it yourself" article in the American Radio Relay League's publication QST....famous for cool ham radio projects.

 

Something like "Begin by mixing up a batch of entangled photons, and here's how you do that..."

 

Interesting Dream Synching

Now that we're up and collecting dreams over at The National Dream Center a very curious this has come along - different people having similar dreams.  Quite strange.  Here, take this one:

"Dream occurred the night of 22-23May2010 I often have very vivid dreams but this was extremely detailed, even for me.

I'm driving in a city, on streets through tall buildings. I don't recognize the buildings. I'm the only vehicle on the road. I stop at an intersection, blinker on to turn left on the street that veers off to the left(not a direct left turn, more of a 45 degree angle). The light turns green and I accelerate into the intersection. I'm almost through the intersection when my car dies. No engine, no radio, nothing. Everything just quits working. The car has enough momentum built to coast the rest of the way through the intersection and rolls to a stop next to a curb.

I get out of the car and look around. There's no movement. No traffic lights. No sounds of traffic. I see other vehicles way down the street and they're stopped in the middle of the street. All the buildings around me are dark. I try my cell phone. It's dead, too. Shit, I think as I get out of the car. I go to the trunk, using the key to open the trunk.

A woman comes up to me. She's dressed in a nurse's uniform/white scrubs. She says, "My car died."

"I know," I say. "We've got to go. There's not much time."

"I don't understand," she says.

I pull out my backpack from the trunk. "Most people are trying to figure out what's happened right now," I say as I check the bag. "They'll think the power is just down. They don't realize what's happened."

"What did happen?" she asks, watching me transfer items from my big purse to the backpack. The pack is crammed full of supplies but I manage to find room for the other things.

"Not certain," I say. "It could be an EMP. Or a nuke. Whatever it was, it's knocked out the electricity and electronics. When people realize that the power won't be coming back on anytime soon, it's going to get ugly. I'd suggest you get moving." I check her shoes. She's wearing running shoes. "Good," I tell her, "You'll be able to walk."

"Walk?" she asks.

"Yes, walk. Right now that's the only way you'll move unless you were riding a bicycle." She watches me pull my handgun from a case in the trunk. I put on the holster, on my right hip. Check the gun, check the clip. Insert the gun into the holster and put extra clips in the pockets of my jeans. "You can walk with me," I tell her, "If you're heading in my direction. If not-" I hand her bottles of water and a protein bar. "Here's enough to get you going."

She puts the bottles of water and the protein bar in her bag. I heft my backpack up and put it on, check my car one more time to make sure I'm not leaving anything important behind, then lock it, just in case.

"I'll walk with you," she says. "You seem to know what you're doing." I laugh. I have no clue but I know I need to get moving. We start walking along the street, in a direction I know is towards home and safety. "Well," she says, "You're prepared for anything."

"Not anything," I say. "Just enough to get me home."

As we walk, the streets are empty. Every now and then, I see people with backpacks, also walking. Not many, though. There's no sound. It's eerie, like we're the only people in existence right then.

Another dream goes along the same line  (emp event):

"I was sitting at a picnic bench in the center of the mobile home park that I manage. I was holding my laptop as if it was the last item in my life of any value. I looked up in the sky and saw a commercial airline jet barely clearing the homes. There was no engine sound. I was aware that his engines had to have failed and he was going to crash. I ran in the direction he was going and watched him crash into the rear of one of the homes. As I tried to call 911 I saw flames emitting from the crash site. 911 had no response. The call would not go through. People started running out of their homes. People were screaming and running from the crash site. I yelled to residents to get water and blankets. At this point I awoke. This dream had the same prophetic quality that my prophetic dreams had when I was 25. When I awoke I felt in my heart that this was a warning that our electronics were to cease functioning. This is way the plane failed and the captain attempted to have a controlled crash. This is also why I could not get a response from 911. My urgency of the dream was that a break in our electronics was to bring down society."

What's interesting - now that the dream collection process is going - is that we can see certain 'recurrent themes' emerge.  Now, whether these have any predictive value or are just expressions of people's fears is, I'm afraid, about a three beer discussion.

 

Still, there are some interesting groups around certain kinds of events - like EMP/nuclear war, for example, and "huge destruction in the US southeast" in the form of a mega quake/destruction with seeming parallel dreams about quakes (elsewhere) but seeming to come from the New Madrid area.

 

Given my own expectations about the future, some of this stuff resonates as a kind of 'everything piles up' late this year and into next and with the 'oil volcano' leaking in the Gulf at a horrific rate, no question in my mind that additional mega quakes mentioned in the previous HPH reports are looking more possible - either that, or we are just noting that people with common inputs seem to share common worries at a very deep emotional level which their subconscious is trying to resolve and is doing so in different ways.  Ponderings continue.

 

Monday At the WuJo:

Look!  Up in the Sky! Department

Remember that mysterious spiral over Norway a while back?  A quick Wikipedia refresher course:

The Norwegian spiral anomaly of 2009[1] appeared in the night sky over Russia[2] on 9 December 2009. It was visible from, and photographed from, northern Norway and Sweden. The spiral consisted of a blue beam of light with a greyish spiral emanating from one end of it. The light could be seen in all of Trøndelag to the south (the two red counties on the map to the right) and all across the three northern counties which compose Northern Norway,[3] as well as from Northern Sweden[1] and it lasted for 2–3 minutes.[3] According to sources, it looked like a blue light coming from behind a mountain, stopping in mid-air, and starting to spiral outwards.[4][5] A similar, though less spectacular event had also occurred in Norway the month before.[6] Both events had the expected visual features of failed flights of Russian RSM-56 Bulava missiles,[7][8] and the Russian Defence Ministry acknowledged shortly after that such an event had taken place on December 9.[9]

OK, now the real news - there's been one over Canada!

 

Speculation abounds here - it's either ET's with a tractor-beam warning (and the fact that the spiral is distorted looking over Canada may be due to some defense system (HAARP?) being tested...OR the simple explanation that this is an ultra-secret military project - or MAYBE it has something to do with why our government launched that unmanned remote control combat vehicle into space recently.

 

Your bet is as good as any on this, but damn interesting story  --- maybe Project Blue Beam is closer than we thought?

 

Not worth worrying about.  I'm gonna go watch the market crash this week and count my money - and get an account opened in a bank north of 40º...

 

 

 

 

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Chart of the Week!

Before the chart, a little background:

Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug.  Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?"  "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.

 

So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track.  Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.

 

No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes.  So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:

 

 

"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest. 

 

Why sure it is...you bet.  A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...

 

Write when you get rich,

 

George Ure, The People's Economist

 

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