Powered by subscribers to Peoplenomics.com

Subscriber Entrance

Customer Service Dept 

 

 

Home

Scanners

Last Week

News Links

Consulting Services

Archives & Library

Submit a News Tip

Peoplenomics Independence Journal Site Disclaimer Elliott Wave View as Blog

Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time ....some typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday June 5, 2010         07:55 CST  New?  Visit our FAQ 
Business news from UrbanSurvival.com's RSS feed   Subscribe in a reader    Add to Google Reader or Homepage    Subscribe in NewsGator Online 

This site is supported by subscriptions:  For additional content, please subscribe to Peoplenomics. .

Content mirrored at: www.independencejournal.com,      Kindle (.MOBI) version here

 

Saturday Note:  

It's the weekend (darn it) and so the update today and Sunday is for subscribers to www.peoplenomics.com and subscription information and sign-up for this high-roller $40/year newsletter is is here.

 

Our first up topic Saturday is: Time to Sell Monday?  But is supoer bear George about to exit shorts?  Nope.  It's what I'm thinking about selling which makes for a little 'out of the ordinary' reading....

 

If $40.00 is too rich for you (it's what funds the server space here, by the way, then come on by Monday and keep the sunscreen & heat-wave kit ready....

 


Friday June 4, 2010

Job Reports No Longer Matter

With the market set to open in a few minutes, I expect there will be at least a few minutes of frenzied buying while the pro's jack up things and then sell of their stakes to wait for what happens this weekend off Israel/Gaza (more in the Coping section) and this weekend's G20 talks in Korea.

 

But in the interest of 'form' I suppose we should with the jobs report, since the PTB/MSM has programmed a whole lot of people to miss the big picture and focus on trading minutia....in fact one leading headline aggregator I looked at said "Countdown May Numbers" with a so let's make this easy on you - and we'll even toss in a flashy widely used animated .GIF file so you'll go Pavlov just right:

Siren.gif - (8K)

"Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 431,000 in May, reflecting the hiring of 411,000 temporary employees to work on Census 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Private-sector em- ployment changed little (+41,000). Manufacturing, temporary help ser- vices, and mining added jobs, while construction employment declined. The unemployment rate edged down to 9.7 percent.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons was 15.0 million in May. The unem- ployment rate edged down to 9.7 percent, the same rate as in the first 3 months of 2010. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for blacks (15.5 percent) declined in May, while the rates for adult men (9.8 percent), adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (26.4 percent), whites (8.8 per- cent), and Hispanics (12.4 percent) showed little change. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In May, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was about unchanged at 6.8 million. These individuals made up 46.0 percent of unemployed persons, about the same as in April."

Of course, our usual attention is paid to the true un and under employment number which over in this table came in today at 16.1% (down from 16,6 percent last month).

 

Then there's always the statistically claimed CES Birth/Death tables where made up (but we're reassured statistically valid) new jobs are created out of the numbers ether.  Check it out: 188-thousand new jobs created and 22,000 in construction?  63,000 in professional services and 73K in leisure?  Sure...whatever....

 

Hand me the ViceGrips, I need to pinch myself while you read 'em...

 

--

So why do I think the Jobs Reports no longer matter?  Because the market is wildly manipulated - most trading is machine vs. machine anyway -0 your money is 'played' by opposing 'houses' each trying to take money from the other.

 

While greed takes us ever-closer to a global confrontation over diminishing resource - made scarce perhaps deliberately - the student of news sees the die as cast and we're just waiting on November unless something dramatically changes.  No, jobs reports in this kind of world don't really matter.  No matter how many times Census workers get hired & rehired.   Care for another example?

 

Highwaymen of Medicine

Want to read about how modern-day highwaymen are holding up a whole country?  Try on "Big Pharma blackmails Greece; halts medicine supply over cash demands".

 

Why it reminds me of that old PTB saying:  "Greed and Greed Alike."  Why, it just makes me so damn proud to be a human, doesn't it you?

 

Zero Trouble

The G20 meets this weekend in South Korea.  The Brit's chancellor of the exchequer is pushing for new capital and liquidity rules. Our own Tim Geithner will call for international stress testing - which is a joke since bank liquidity is basically government-sanctioned zero printing.

 

What's really going on - as I've explained before - is that the Fed is trying to create enough money to keep the US economy from collapsing into deflation which one PTB source claims would be bad since "deflations breed revolution" while printing enough paper to essentially stepp on the gas hard enough to create jobs, rebuild bank equity in housing, yet not have it bite too hard at the gas pump and grocery store.

 

Growth in Federal Reserve M1 from April to April was 6.7% growth which is higher than GDP is growing,   It would seem that the decline in the broader (reconstructed by Trader Bart) M3 is leveling off around the 10% decline level, and with the new Fed data out yesterday, there may actually be some improvement where M-3's decline may be reversing, which would mean 3-6 months from the Fed being able to tighten. 

 

Of course the Euro hitting a four-year low this morning hasn't helped futures.

 

Gold Lines?

Several reports have popped up around the net about people lining up in Germany and Switzerland to buy gold.  Since the stories popped up, gold climbed back over the $1,200 level.

 

McRecall

"McDonald's recalls Shrek glasses 'tainted with cadmium'" says the BBC.  About 12-million of these were sold at $2-each...

 

Mexico's California Takeover?

If you didn't figure that California would eventually be ceded back to Mexico (and why I wouldn't buy property in the Southland) consider the headline "Mexico opens California office to provide ID for illegals."

 

A liberal would read this as "Gee, that's a  swell idea" whereas a conservative would ask "Isn't this proof that California now really has two governments?  How many offices will Mexico open?"

 

Oh, since Mexico IS opening office this satellite - and we expect more will follow -  can we give them part of the state's budget deficit?

 

GlobalRev Tax Angle?

Remember that cabbie shooting earlier this week?  Odd email from a UK reader:

"Hi George,

There are reports today that the cab driver who gunned down 12 people before shooting himself was subject to a tax inspection.

There are reports that he had £60,000 in his bank that he hadn't declared or would say where it had come from. There are also some reports that the first person he shot, his twin brother, had shopped him to the IRS.

The cab driver had apparently been worried that he could go to jail over the matter. So money and tax was a BIG factor it would seem. And the IRS won't comment saying it is subject to data protection laws. Though now the guy is dead how does that protect him then?"

Sure enough - in the UK it's the Inland Revenue Service and yup, he was facing jail time.   Say, you don't see a pattern with this and Austin, do you?

 

Vacation Driving Season

Another reader spied this out of the ordinary...

"...this is the first time in my 24 years of driving that i can recall that the price of gas has come down during a holiday weekend. not to mention that big oil spill in that little gulf, whenever there is a hiccup in the flow in any part of the world the the price goes up. not last weekend here on the south side of Chicago it went down .12 in 3 days. ??? "

See it starting in the Triple A Fuel Gauge chart, too...

 

Panama's got the ranch while E and I head north in July - going for a family seafood festival while there's still some left and meeting with Clif....which gets me to...

 

 ==== snip and save section  ======

 

Coping: With Lebor Gabála Érenn Weekend?

About 5 AM Central every weekday I take a quick scan of the headlines and throw a virtual dart at my virtual chart of the markets and open or close positions according.   But THE most important and overarching story developing this weekend - which will likely change how the whole planet operates over the next nine months - is the one MSM isn't getting into it deeply enough, so this morning I'll try to lay out the game board for you.

 

Today's first dart is not a happy one.  According to my dart, we're extreme close to the temporal point from the predictive linguistics work where something akin the Irish "Book of the Taking of Ireland" could go  prime time.

 

"The what?"

 

Wiki it and grok this:

"Lebor Gabála Érenn (The Book of the Taking of Ireland) is the Middle Irish title of a loose collection of poems and prose narratives recounting the mythical origins and history of the Irish race from the creation of the world down to the Middle Ages. An important record of the folkloric history of Ireland, it was compiled and edited by an anonymous scholar in the 11th century, and might be described as a mélange of mythology, legend, history, folklore and Christian historiography. It is usually known in English as The Book of Invasions or The Book of Conquests, and in Modern Irish as Leabhar Gabhála Éireann or Leabhar Gabhála na hÉireann."

If this seems a bit disjointed (no, not as in 'no vape') it's because if you haven't read the past few issues of Clif's www.halfpasthuman.com report (The Shape of Things to Come" - SOTTC) then you will have no clue, so here are the two main elements of future history:

 

Predictive linguistics being a new science and all - and since it's really Clif's invention circa 1997 - this method for scrying the future based on language changes on the internet is not perfect. 

 

BUT Rachel Corrie is close enough to [a wild] Colleen for me since the adjective 'wild' in the Colleen references may point toward tertiary meaning of the word 'wild' in the sense of  "uncivilized or barbarous; savage" which - if it happens upon the ship's arrival in the international waters tomorrow (close to where six other flotilla ships were seized), could have a much worse outcome than the first boardings.

 

At least, that's one way to read events in advance.

 

This being the case, one has to marvel at how deftly this is all  being orchestrated by the PTB:  Rather than have the ships arrive during a weekday with European or American markets open when the PTB might be caught unawares should things diverge from their plans, we see the next two ships will arrive with all markets closed early Saturday.  My, what a coincidence - feign surprise?

 

I won't spoil your watching events play out in real-time if you haven't read the SOTTC report, but trust me, no fun at all watching this stuff  after reading about it in modelspace. 

 

On the other hand, if you do have the past SOTTC reports, check out page 13 of the 5/25/2010 report because the linguistics around the 'wild colleen' match up perfectly when you combine ship and its naming.  Particularly the part where:

"There are some negative aspect/attribute sets around this [female personality] that are troubled by support from [execution]. However we take some consolation from interpretations of the world as meaning [ability to delivery] or [delivery skills]. 

---

The supporting set accretion patterns suggest that this [asia island woman] will become [highly visible] over 2010, such that in early 2011, when the planet has [changed], her role in [global revolution] will come from a ]known (and trusted) personality].   (Any reference to this extract requires a link to www.halfpasthuman.com and www.urbansurvival.com as it is copyrighted material.)

In a few weeks, we will get an updated SOTTC report, but clearly, if there is another high seas boarding this weekend, oughta be tense and Clif may to be able to further tune the lexicon using whatever 'support from [execution]' means. 

 

My guess?  Either the murder of the flotilla participants so far, or additional folks from among those aboard this "wild colleen" this weekend.

 

A further possible set up to WW III this fall: 

Note please that a huge new oil find off the coast of Israel, which has found 50-70-yers worth of gas in what's dubbed ther "Leviathan field".  All of which is very disconcerting to Biblical scholars who have long believed that Israel's discovery of exportable oil & gas reserves would lead the oil cartel (which now includes Russia) to seize control of Israeli lands.

 

What was once thought impossibly large O&G finds takes on important perspective under headlines like "Gas and Oil Rush to Israel - will Russia and her Muslim Allies, too?"

 

Under more normal circumstances, this wouldn't be such a big deal BUT remember that the Obama administration has shut down all new offshore drilling in the Gulf, and our sources in the Houston energy complex tell me means this has started a modern kind of Exodus for those leased offshore rigs which are being towed elsewhere in the world now since at their day rates, utilization is mandatory. 

 

Worst of all: These events will put the US in the position of facing huge energy price increases this fall because no new close in supplies will be coming on line.

 

So, as "'Furious' Obama heading to Gulf for spill update', apparently taking an expectation-setting cue from film director Spike Lee,

 to "Go off...this is a disaster!"  as Lee correctly figures it, Avatar & Titanic director James Cameron has been politely 'blown off' by BP, who don't seem to comprehend that a genius of film doesn't get the shots featured in his documentaries like Expedition Bismark (2002) and Titanic: Ghosts of thye Abyss (in IMAX 3D) without having their 'poop in a group' when it comes to ultra deep-water robotics.

 

Most dangerous high tech disease in the world right now?  NIH - not invented here disease.

 

Meantime, by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research has released super-computer-generated predictions about the Gulf spill and in particular I want you to squint at the 130-day projection:

 

BP gulf oil spill model simulation

 

Now ask yourself this:  Is this starting to look any more like something out of Revelation 8:8-9: "The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed."

 

If you're wondering why I put this in the 'snip and save' section rather than above in the 'hard news' section it's because I expect you're want to put this into your 'snip and save' folder so you can refer to it this fall when we get to wars & rumors of wars globally' or when the whole thing 'tips' in November.

 

Cheery way to kick off the weekend, ain't it?

 

It's just that Sherlock Holmes said it best: "How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

 

And the truth is, November's tipping point has darkened measurably.

 

"And why is that, George?"

 

Ever since I was a kid and my father taught me that the Bible has many historically accurate accounts in it  = his favorite was that the burning bush was likely a natural gas leak, something Texaco later exploited - I've been reading all kinds of End Times literature from many religions.

 

The problem for all humans is that if the oil disaster in the Gulf is the 'third of the sea turned into blood', then the part in Revelations 8:11 which explains "the name of the star is Wormwood. A third of the waters turned bitter, and many people died from the waters that had become bitter" could be trying to tell us all something.

 

How about this:  If you had no idea what radiation was, nor missiles, wouldn't a falling star that turns things 'bitter' and poisons people be a reasonably good story to sum things up?

 

So if we  just take this particular part of prophesy as "What out for oil on waters and then falling stars that poison things" what might we infer from this?

 

"The fourth angel sounded his trumpet, and a third of the sun was struck, a third of the moon, and a third of the stars, so that a third of them turned dark. A third of the day was without light, and also a third of the night"?

 

To me, this sounds like what a pre-nuclear language might have used to describe the dust which would be kicked up into the atmosphere as a result of a large-sized nuclear exchange.  Or, put another way, how would you explain high atmosphere dust and possibly something just short of nuclear winter to ancient peoples in language that would have high carry-forward values?

 

And how then would you describe the return of the planet's original terra-forming ET's, since that's the picture of how we got here (how the Earth was formed) as outlined in the Self Defining Hebrew re-translations over at www.thechronicleproject.org?

 

Makes me seriously ponder a move south of the equator, since most nuclear weapons seem to be owned - and pointed - in the northern latitudes.  Something to think about, isn't it?  I'm thinking south of 40º.

 

More this weekend for Peoplenomics subscribers, including a curious anomaly which has popped out of our National Dream Center data that may be a useful timing hint.

 

If you're not a subscriber just remember "Rachel Corrie Aid Ship To Reach Gaza Tomorrow" will be a biggie.  Might even move your tee- time.

 

A curiously timed reader email this morning reminds this:

Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear."                                ---Mark Twain

More for subscribers tomorrow & Sunday, elsewise, see you Monday morning....

 

 

Send your comments to george@ure.net


Shop Till You Drop Department:


Peoplenomics This Week

Discovering "Reality Waves"

Every once in a while, we depart, ever so briefly from our pursuit of economic knowledge to discover more general knowledge, which may be obscuring economic truth.  So this long weekend, we will look at the over rated -- but very it not make and trance inducing phenomenon -- called causality.  Not only does the core concept directly relate to market behaviors in general, such as economic cycles, trading activity, and arbitrary valuations of companies, but it also ties together in an almost Unified Field Theory sort of way, effects as divergent as nuclear radiation, meditation and prayer, UFOs, and more traditional paranormal beliefs such as ghosts.  And what happens after death.  Indulge me; we have until Tuesday to figure out our next trades, and in its own way, this might improve our aim a bit.

 

More For Subscribers       To Subscribe, CLICK HERE

Need Logon Assistance?   Click here.

 

Dream A Little Dream...

If you have an especially vivid dream that seems to have something to do with the future, please write it down so others can look it over for possible future/predictive values.  Simple go to www.nationaldreamcenter.com and click over to the DreamBase.

 

Cookie Video

The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager.  You can see it here.

 

I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great.  First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM).  Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:

 

Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies.  Bonus:  You computer may run faster. 

 

"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn't, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"

 

 Buy Now

 

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too.....  Click here for the index and details.

 

MyGroPonics

My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics.  It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight).  Sound interesting?  It's just $10 bucks here...

 

Add to Cart    View Cart   

 

Pass It On

A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings.  If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them.  Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'.  Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..."

----

Last week's report is always here. 

 


Thursday June 3, 2010

The Hardest Trade, Redux

Stampeding the sheep to the upside for another shearing continues.  And, as I told you yesterday, the hardest decision in trading is the one to hang onto a stock that has gone up nicely versus the decision to book some profits and call it good until the next good "sniping" opportunity comes along where there are minimal risks.  Today, I'll have a real life chance to practice this 'hardest of all' part of investing.

 

If you look at the Dow over the past few trading days, you'll see (here) that the intraday high last Friday was 10,293.45.  And, if you look at the 5-day chart from Yahoo over here, you'll see that the Friday closing spike is not that far from yesterday's 10,249.54.

 

So, as today's trading session starts, I'll be looking at my alarms which are set to last Friday's high because if that high is violated, the odds are pretty good that my entry into the triple bear financial ETF will either be back at my entry price (or could be within minutes) and it will be time to exit the trade and a break-even or a few cents of loss.

 

As usual, this is not trading or investment advice...just discussion of how I choose to lose money because it's too long a drive to Vegas from East Texas and don't feel like going to the boats over in Boosier yet...

 

The hypelines this morning go to the idea that global markets are heading higher on "US employment hopes" since tomorrow morning about this time we'll be chatting about the latest employment figures.

 

My entry point for this position was at $14.23 in the pre-open on Friday.  The truth is, if I was really conservative, I would have blown out near Tuesday's $15.96 high and called a 1½ trading day 12% gain adequate. 

 

But, like a particularly hard-working friend of mine says "I quit kindergarten because they had recess; I guess I'm guilty, too, of trying to get things right.

--

It's not just the employment figures on Friday that bear watching.  It's the rest of it - like the leading analysts polled by the Associated Press who seem to think  retail spending report out today was going to be on the 'light' side. 

 

Next up to dither today's dart will be the productivity numbers...about as expected:

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 2.8 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, with output rising 4.0 percent and hours rising 1.1 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010, output increased 3.0 percent while hours fell 3.0 percent, yielding an increase in productivity of 6.1 percent (tables A, and 2). This gain in productivity from the same quarter a year ago was the largest since output per hour increased 6.1 percent over the four-quarter period ending in the first quarter of 2002.

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers. The measures released today were based on more recent source data than were available for the preliminary report.

Of course the bad news, which I tend to focus on - being a short side player and all - is that perfect productivity means one worker supplies the whole country which means 100% unemployment - great if you own stock in an automated warehousing picker, but otherwise, it's soup lines and food stamps.

 

Which I mention because the Boston Globe has fine coverage of one of those stories neither the democans or republicrats want you too much time thinking about...which is what?

The number of Americans receiving food stamps in March topped 40 million for the first time as the jobless rate hovered near a 26-year high.

Rally on that?  Sure...most investors are ignorant pigs, so WTF, right?

 

A second stat to consider today is the weekly unemployment figures, which came out as follows:

"In the week ending May 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 453,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 463,000. The 4-week moving average was 459,000, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average of 457,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending May 22, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 22 was 4,666,000, an increase of 31,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,635,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,654,000, an increase of 9,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,644,250.

The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 5.124 million. "

Why I bet the unemployment rate tomorrow will be 9.7 to 8.8% simply because to have it any other way would reveal there ain't not recovery and we can't have that.  Oh, sure 40-mil on food stamps, but maybe if we just recycle a few more Census jobs....How 'effing blind do the PTB take us for?  Words like "incredibly, foolishly, nearly completely, and unbelievably" do come to mind.

 

But wait! - as the late/great Billy would say - There's more! 

 

Before you go making inferences about the possible contents of tomorrow's biggie (May unemployment) which is the 900-pound gorilla in the market, you might want to click over here are review how the "Contradicting Unemployment Statistics - Fat Fingers at the Department of Labor?".

 

So despite the headlines in here, the market today, it will take a close more than 50-points up to unseat me from my current position.

 

Say: Did I mention the US International Reserve position dropped by about $800-million in the past week?  All that spending has to be covered somehow, eh?  Hand the me  the ink, wouldja?

 

You make up the "Buy stocks, they're at historically cheap levels" and I'll make up the cue cards for the TV talking heads...and I'll start adding zeroes to the prices of things like food.

 

What were those words again?  Oh yeah..."incredibly, foolishly, nearly completely, and unbelievably"...

 

Killer Headlines

What's also interesting about markets being at key inflection points, was summarized a few years back by astro-econ whiz Robert Hitt.  He made the incredibly sage observation that when markets are at most delicate inflation points, particularly to the downside, we tend to see mass murder stories and other assaults on our emotions. He said something like "These events are how emotions that might otherwise pour into the market are (something like 'grounded out")". 

 

I've been watching the phenomena ever since - and this was pre-Virginia Tech...and lo & behold out of the UK comes the story about a fellow who killed 12 people and founded another 25 in a shooting spree for no particular reason.

 

What's really frightening is that it seems to work.  If you click over here and see what the British markets did, you can almost smell the manipulation around events.  Tuesday, early in the trading session, there were serious lows, which had they broken would have taken out last Thursday's lows and that would have opened the way to a much larger downside break in the British markets. 

 

I'd be damn curious what the alleged shooter - a cab driver - was doing in the 24-hours before he got into an argument with three other cabbies that set him off...at exactly the moment the PTB were running the market up.

 

The chart then shows that while the session on Thursday was weak, it had not taken out the lows...and then as news spread across the country that there'd been a mass shooting, lo9ok what happened to the market: went damn near straight up and from a chart perspective can move higher now because the Thursday action to far has been over FTSE 5,250.

 

No, I don't have an explanation for this, except to note that humans may have some kind of 'snap-back' mechanism built into their trading decision-making.  Playing the short side may be extremely easy when there are no external emotional influencers, but a revulsion down at the archetype level - almost an overload of negativity - may weight decisions to the positive side, and thus the markets rebound in the wake of such events.

 

Not to claim that this is the case, but going forward, when we see these "out of blue" shooter/mass murder/public emotion-grabbing events, we'll perhaps revisit Hitt's theory.  For now, I'd score this as a Hitt hit.

 

Oh...if the unemployment numbers really do come in weak (since any strength would likely be based on the serial hiring/firing of census workers, might want to wear a bulletproof vest Friday and over the weekend through the first few days of trading next week.  Just can't be too careful about such things.

 

Like the Book of Landry says "In a bear market, surprises are usually, but not always, to the downside..."

 

Famine, Drought, Oily Luck

Although we had a few thunder-bumpers through East Texas last night (which had me out lowering the 60' ham radio tower in the rain with a long plastic pole to push buttons with) the total cloud-squeezings amounted to a lousy 9-100th's of an inch of rain.  What's worse, a check of the nearest official weather station (Tyler, Texas Pounds' Field) reveals that we've had only 9.9" of precip year-to-date (YTD) versus a 'normal' 19.47".

 

All of which got me to looking at the drought going on in the lower Mississippi valley, often referred to as the Arklatex area after the three states border region.  Now let's fast forward to the national drought monitor map and please notice where this is relative to the massive oil spill in the Caribbean.

 

I'd certainly call this one of the most convenient pop-up droughts in a good long while, at least if'n I were a Texas landowner, which I happen to be. 

 

Here's how it looks on the National Drought Monitor updated this morning:

 

US Drought Monitor, June 1, 2010

 

And zooming in on the Arklatex:

 

 

 

Drought means lowered food production around those A's and probable water supply issues around the H's.

 

Still if'n I was 'wildcat'n weather' I'd say I just struck drought down around the BeePee mess...further east, you're wondering?  Normal looking...

 

No Nukes for Gulf

Although it has been kicking around the 'net for weeks now, the NY Times has a very good story flagged by one of the denizens of Wall Street and brought to our attention: "Nuclear Option on Gulf Oil Spill?  No Way, U.S. Says".  Nice catch, denizen....

 

Meantime, CBS report "No shortage of eccentric oil leak ideas for BP..." Good read, especially, if like me, you're a grad student from the Rube Goldberg School of Engineering.

 

Oh, and if you've never built a Rube Goldberg machine, here's a video on some things you may want to build around your house or apartment...

 

Holey Crap!

All kinds of buzz in Central America about the sink hole in Guatemala.  If you look at the translated page here  (made from this source page) it looks almost like a directed energy weapon of some kind.  Say, you been watching that X-37 spacecraft lately?  You're sure it's just a spy plane?

 

Personal Politics

Got this from www.savetheinternet.com yesterday:

"Hi George, Since we sent you this e-mail, your representative, Rep. Jeb Hensarling , also signed a letter opposing efforts to protect the open Internet and promote universal access. The public backlash against these sellouts in Congress has been immense. People’s anger at this betrayal is matched by their passion to do something to defend Net Neutrality. We haven’t heard from you, though. Can you take 30 seconds to show your support for Net Neutrality and universal access by signing this letter to Rep. Hensarling and the FCC? Free Press will deliver all letters in person to let Congress know it can’t get away with selling out our Internet rights."

I called the Congressman's office up in Athens (TX) and sure enough, he signed it.  Good staff person, though, very articulate...it's just I know something about the FCC's role in regulation of communications and remember who started the internet on who's dime?   Now, care to take a wild-ass guess which lever I won't be pulling this fall?

 

==== snip and save section ===

 

Coping at the WuJo:  Psychic Instrumentation

"What's up with the grays, lately?"

 

Oh-oh...this was my eldest daughter calling at oh-dark-thirty to discuss instrumentation of disturbances in various energy fields around her which have been interfering with her Baha ear implant.

 

I've been encouraging here to try and figure out where the odd sounds/noises that get into the device (she's on her second or third unit now) have been coming from.

 

"I would have told you about what I ordered," she began, "But I figure you'd just tell me how to rig something up with a car battery..."

 

Er, maybe... but she's ordered a Trifield 100XE EMF Meter because she's trying to track down the sources of RF/EMI (electromagnetic interference) that have vexed her since the device was implanted.

 

As for how it's working, the Baha device gets great reviews, except that she has RF issues around certain kinds of electronics.  I've encouraged her to get something like a Trifield meter since there are many kinds of RF/electrical interference sources and it would really be useful to know when interference occurs.

 

She doesn't exactly live in a 'quiet' RF environment.  For one thing, she lives on Capitol Hill in Seattle where there are plenty of towers for cell phones, A TV station or two, and since she's in an apartment, everyone has a microwave going off at one point, or another, in the building.

 

And let's not forget to throw in all the noise from cell phones.  A lot of people quite mistakenly think that cellphones are off when you click off at the end of a conversation.  They're not, of course.  Every 30-seconds to a minute, they issue a short transponding signal to the nearest cell tower to let them know "Hey!  I'm still out here if you have any calls for (xxx) xxx-xxxx..."

 

Then there's the matter of AC fields.  Power companies continue to downplay the risk of high voltage distribution systems, but with a good field meter, the levels of RF as really amazing.

 

If you want some research in the area of RF energy and magnetic energy risks to your health, a copy of Currents of Death by Paul Brodeur should definitely be on your shopping list.

 

Not that this should send you scampering from AC-powered homes, since a 1996 paper on "Power Lines Fields and Public Health" from the American Physical Society same to this:

General Conclusion: The scientific literature and the reports of review panels show no consistent, significant link between cancer and the 60-Hz ELF fields. This literature includes epidemiology studies, research on biological systems, and the analyses of theoretical mechanisms. This result is consistent with those that have advanced arguments that there can be no such link. The preponderance of the epidemiology and biophysical/biological research findings have failed to substantiate those studies that have reported specific adverse health effects from the exposure to 60-Hz ELFs. It is always possible that some minor carcinogenic connection might be found, but the present data do not establish that connection. For expenditures for mitigation to be justified, there should be some consistent, meaningful combination of the following factors: (a) A plausible coupling mechanism at the cellular level exists, (b) the coupling must produce consistent biochemical changes, (c) the biochemical changes must be detrimental, (d) meaningful epidemiology data should determine the degree of danger, and finally, (e) upper-bound ELF mitigation costs should be comparable to those for other dangers mitigated in society. For cases where the epidemiology association is very strong, then clearly the other criteria are less important. For cases where the epidemiology association is weak, then clearly the other criteria must be considered. The current cost of ELF is more than a billion dollars a year, an amount which clearly cannot be justified on the basis of applying the above criteria to the data. This cost has been driven by the combination of unlimited "prudent avoidance" in a fearful society.

That said, there is a hole big enough to drive a Kenworth T2000 through - and that's the combined effects of multiple RF sources. 

 

I'll let you know how the eldest likes her Trifield, but whether you're ghost-hunting or just trying to figure out if your microwave is cooking you as much as the food, at least consider a $35 low cost measuring unit like the Digital Microwave Oven Leakage Meter since if you've got 3-4 friends/kids/relatives, it can be shared around. 

 

Oh, and if your microwave isn't really clean both inside and around the door seal...that's a non-no, tool.

 

One of the best investments ever in the kitchen is a heatproof plastic lid you can get for microwaving.  Big dome looking thing that's dishwasher safe and it keeps from melting plastic wrap into your food if you reheat too long. 

 

Oh, and about the grays...she was just kidding.  Or was she?

 

Dream Center Oddities

Speaking of grays and such, here's a weird one from my latest venture - the National Dream Center which is in baseline dream collecting mode for now...check this out:

Dream of Red Spirals in the Sky

Last night, June 1st 2010 I had this dream...

I was just seeing a still shot (if you will) of a night sky. In the upper right hand corner of the sky, there were two red spirals, just like the blue spiral seen over Norway recently.

There was what appeared to be flat icy artic terrain with only one small house/building to the far left of the picture.

The message I received in the dream was, "When you see this red spiral, trouble from the East comes". That is all... my dream state had me staring at this image for what seemed like forever... and the message repeated itself in audio form over and over and over again.

Of course my mind wanted to know what the threat was, what trouble from the East can we expect? No answer or imagery came, only an "impression" and this impression was of a hostile extra terrestrial presence from the "East".

This is all I have to say on this dream.

So, when I see the two red spirals widely reported on the 'net, then may be a good time to go long defense stocks, maybe?  Just thinking out loud here...also wouldn't want to be near Iran or Syria about then, either. 

---

Remind me to put a "whims live longer" bumper sticker together one of these days.

 

NLC Time

Great article on the arrival of noctilucent clouds time...if you're wondering why clouds are glowing at night.

 

If the arrival of hunting or fishing season makes no sense, put your tinfoil hat on and go read up on the topic at Wikipedia...

 

On second thought, no tinfoil needed, although you may want to consider a pocket protector... can be a nerd or geek without at least a couple of these.  Otherwise, you're just a poseur.

 

As luck would have it, I don't wear a tinfoil hat while writing my columns anymore, not since a reader sent me a 1923 Danish Army helmet.  Since these are out of production/no longer available, you'll just have to go shopping for other metal headgear here...it's so much more refined than tinfoil, you know? 

 

Why for just $249, you can get an "Ancient Greek All Bronze Corinthian War Helmet".  Bronze?  Why we're talking much better conductivity and presumably better RF shielding as a result.  Just the thing to don when your cellphone rings...

 


Wednesday June 2, 2010

The Hardest Trading Decision

I was talking to Robin Landry yesterday about what has been a winning trade in a particular triple-short ETF on the financial stocks (no, this is not trading advice, think of it more like an early morning confessional).  I said "I know the slam-down of the market will be followed by a rally, but I'm sure tempted to click out..."

 

"You know, George, the hardest part of a winning trade is staying in it when it's had a good move to the upside..."

 

And that really is the hardest part bout investing.  It's easy enough to set a mechanical stop 10% below the entry point...but that's probably not as hard as riding the winners.

 

That said, "Stock futures rise, pointing to higher opening" may sound like good news for the bulls, but after a 112-point drop toward the close on Tuesday, I'm not so sure.  Landry's planning to watch the real testing which should come after this little bounce is done today (and maybe tomorrow when the new unemployment figures come out).

 

Futures being up, an 80 point gain is my best daily dart.

 

BTW, when the unemployment figures come out Friday, be ready for the market to drop to that just under 10,000 level since in bear markets surprises are usually to the what side?

 

Sage Remarks

Might want to see if C-SPAN is covering Warren Buffett's comments before the Financial Crisis panel.

 

Damned By Oil Timing?

Maybe Goldman was just lucky, but is it luck to sell 4.68 million shares of BP stock right before the Gulf of Mexico disaster?  See this BP ADR (American depository receipts) report for the period ending 3/31/2010 for piece of the puzzle to ponder.

 

"It was just an accident, George, stop seeing conspiracies about!" 

 

Uh...sure...er...whatever.  But it's interesting to look at some recent ownership history (pre disaster) and see who won and who got stuck.

----

Takes a while for these things to sink in (since most money managers are far less clever than they imagine) but when it does, stories like "BP at Ricks and Share  Plunge Fuels Takeover Speculation". 

 

Say, you don't think Goldman would buy BP and do a net asset value break-up do you?

 

Book value of BP is $33.25 (don't know how much of that is good will, but you'd have to back that out...)  But with the price at  around $36 and dropping from the low 60's kinda range, seems that a break-up exercise might actually be something Goldman could handle...not that they'd be that audacious...or would they?

 

Once the stock gets to $25 - if it drops that far....

---

Then we have to consider that headline "BP Oil leak may last until Christmas in Worst Case Scenario".  No mention of which year, though, but two would fill the linguistic expectations and then some...

 

Flying Fish

While all the Gulf oilists are assuring us that hurricanes won't be picking up too much petrochemical and dumping it inland, I'd simply refer you to the "Fish fall out of sky over remote Australian desert town" which provides some evidence that things bigger than molecules can be lifted inland by freak weather.

 

This assumes, of course, that like most UrbanSurvival readers you remember the correct answer to the test question:  "Which is larger:  A molecule or a fish?"

 

Labor Dept. Observations

Noticed that the US Department of Labor website has been rolling over its color scheme from blues to reds.  Not real fond of the change, I have to admit.  Red just looks a little too "kommisar-ish" for me, thanks.  Maybe it's because I'm from the duck & cover generation.

 

Or, maybe in B-school I was taught that if there's one color to be avoided in business it's red...as in ink. 

 

Why aren't all government sites green so as to not imply left/right leanings?  Royalists/Socialists...all the same game.

 

Middle East Tensions

So what will happen when the Israeli Defence Forces meet with the next two 'Gaza ships" if they are accompanied by Turkish navy ships?

 

Neutrino Conversion Department

"New piece found in subatomic puzzle: Neutrino conversion could help explain dark matter" reports an MSNBC piece.

---

Around the ranch, I've developed a very inexpensive way to create 'dark matter'.  I simply go around and turn the lights off...
 

 

=== snip and save department ===

 

Coping:  The Art of Sleeping In/Time Travel

If this morning's report seems a little shorter than usual, if the prose lacks a bit of bite, if the cynicism seems a little thin, and all the rest, there's a good reason for it:  I slept in about 73.2 minutes longer than usual this morning.

 

It didn't seem that long, but that reminded me that there's one thing that has always bugged me about the world of sleep and dreams..."How come there's either no time there, or what there is is so screwed up?"

 

I know the objectivist will answer:  Plain as day, George, you old fool.  Why everyone knows that consciousness is the time maker. 

 

Yeah, and I suppose that's my point: Been spending a lot of 'time' lately wondering about why the clocks are so vastly different on one side of awakening than the other.  I mean, this morning's extra little snooze, for example.  There it was a few minutes before five and next thing you know it was 6:30 and the brain was only waking then because I tend to hit a wild caffeine induced state of writing about 6:30.

 

It was almost like my brain was being told by the fingers "Hey!  Ain't we supposed to be moving or doing something around now?"  Or, the heart asking  "Where's the morning bump in blood pressure up to 140/90 that your son keeps mentioning?

 

Truth of the matter is even stranger:  Today's over-sleeping event comes perhaps as a result of burning the candle a bit at both ends while working on the problem of how to build either a real time machine, or a real levitation platform...the two being related technologies.

 

So maybe it was from staying up late to watch the (admittedly not so hot) movie Philadelphia Experiment 2, or because I recently had an epiphany than seems to have kick started my thinking up agian on this topic.

 

Know what it is?

 

I've been listing out all the common elements from every original, or nearly so, report I've been able to find of every time/ufo report I can think of and I've come up with an interesting approach.

 

Try it yourself....ask what did the Philadelphia experiment, Montauk, and that Fran De Aquino paper ("Gravity Control by means of Electromagnetic Field through Gas or Plasma at Ultra-Low Pressure") many UFO sightings have in common?

 

The odd answer as I started to generalize the problem in order to find common elements was a pretty short list:

 

1. A set of coils/plates to which low frequency alternating current have been applied in the proximity of...

2.  A source of ultra violet light.

 

If there's anything at all to the concept these two things alone ought to produce some kind of noticeable effect with the right UV source and the right audio to low RF frequencies.

 

"Where did the UV come from in those older cases, though?"

 

That didn't hit me till I got to actually thinking about the original designs.  You see, in the "Old Days" since the 1920's I think it was, the way to get Alternating Current turned into Direct Current was through the use of mercury vapor rectifier tubes.

 

"Holy smokes!  You mean every case of levitation/time travel seems to have a UV source hanging around?"    You like this one?

File:866 mercury rectifier glow 5mA.jpeg

 

Can't be sure, but they would have been around at the time of the Ph9ildelphia experiment and Montauk projects for sure.  Then later, so a source told me a good while back, the newest strains of the technology in the dark ops projects has been based on UV off organic light emitting diodes (OLEDS).

 

All of which got me to ordering a batch of UV LED's and I've developed a method of instrumenting even the smallest changes in time/gravity so the next year (or so) should be interesting. 

 

Gotta see if John Hutchison's

equipment (confiscated by the government ala Tesla, BTW, also had some UV sources in it.  But since most of his gear was picked up on the cheap, it might explain why he was able to get effects sometimes and not others.

 

Certainly, when government types came along and asked Hutchison to demonstrate his purported effects, they would have given him current, state of the art gear, which would all have built in to the system traceable calibrations back to NIST standards, since that's just how things are done.  Lug around a WW II power supply with mercury vapor-tubes when the government has calibrated switch-mode DC supplies?  Ha!

 

It may not have occurred to either party that whether the experiments were replicable, the proximity or presence of stray UV would be key and frankly, I don't think the government would go lifting 1940's WWII surplus high voltage power supplies and turning them on or off, or having this cover cracked just so to bathe some part of the test area in low level UV...well, you have the idea.

 

The only other question then seems to be what the frequency of the radars were which would be the microwave source.  I won't go into that detail (since I overslept this morning and this is a kind of mental core dump to put all this out in the open) but a conversation with Robert Nelson over at www.rexresearch.com on this is likely in order later on today.

 

Robert's the collection point for world of weird in science and he might have some thoughts on this...

 

So when I oversleep, try not to get too mad at me...oh, and if I show up missing, one of two things will have happened.  Either Clif & I will be out for a spin in the 930 retooled with a levitation system (which would be more sylin' & profiling than a Delorean, right?), or the government has come along to 'borrow' my computer system or buy me out, which is fine - $10 million is a decent enough price and then I'd happily retire.  Wouldn't cost them but paper & ink, and besides, with this out in the wild, might get a whole new class of thinkers onto the problem.

 

Or, there's that 25¢ worth of lead option which we don't like to think about, but guys with times machines/levitation are, how would you say this, uncontrollable?

 

Oh, get a package of these for instrumentation.  Run one very close/in your experimental field, run another 10 feet away/outside the field.  Monitor any frequency/phase differences when your fields are on, or off, and you should have very good time-measurement sensitivity since the relative time differences may be captures as frequency delta.

 

Now, where's that coffee?

 


Tuesday June 1, 2010 

A Fuse Lit. Oily Disappointment

After a long holiday weekend, we have to look at what's transpired overs the weekend and ask a simple question before the opening of markets today: "Is the world a better place - or worse - from an investment perspective since we left trading on Friday?  Most weeks, it can be argued one way, or the other, but not this one. 

 

Consider we are approaching what feels a lot like the "Israeli Mistake" outlined in the HPH predictive linguistics that's very large and has carry values toward 10-generations.

 

The Israeli attack on a six ships of a 'peace flotilla' on the high seas, which also it may be one component of the 'Israeli mistake' language mentioned often in predictive linguistics is not nearly as much of a 'mistake' foundation as sending three nuclear-capable Dolphin Class submarines to sit off Iran's coast in an attempt to intimidate Iran into something.

Even the well-connected Debka.com is asking why did Israel's military take the lead 80-miles offshore when 'the line' is at 20 miles and Israel's Border Police might have done things quite differently?

 

To the untrained observer it might appear that the "next worry" might seem to be that there are according to Debka, "Two more boats head for Gaza as Israel vows to stop them" building pressure.

 

Unfortunately, this is NOT the major problem this botched incident's handling leads to and here's why:  Israel is a small country and although extremely well armed thanks in part to the US Foreign Military Sales program over the years is indeed surrounded on three sides by groups which would rather the country be confined inside the 1948-era boundaries (or wasn't there at all)  especially in the expanded areas gained through the Six Days War in 1967 when the USS Liberty was attacked.

 

Key to the supporters of Israeli expansionism was the claim that Israel needed 'buffer lands' from aggressive neighbors - hence the Six Days War.  The key Wikipedia extract is:

"At the [1967 Six Days - g] war's end, Israel had gained control of the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. The results of the war affect the geopolitics of the region to this day.

If you were to ask me for a strategic assessment today, it would go like this:  Israel's military has had a very successful tactical past as events like the Six Days War and the Entebbe hostage rescue in Uganda (1976) point out.

 

Israel, following the 1972 attack on Israeli athletes in the Munich Games also demonstrated that it was committed to an eye-for-an-eye response to terrorism and launched Operation Wrath of God or Mivtza Za'am Ha'El which was somewhat successful.

 

A military historian might speculate that Israel from 1967 through the 1973 Yom Kippur War, one of the key strategists was the late IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Dyan.

 

The result of Dyan's tenure as chief of staff led to a global opinion that pound-for-pound, the IDF were the best there was, and in many cases this was correct since the IDF leadership was bright - quick to recognize mistakes, revise tactics and pursue victory.

 

However, in more recent events, such as the 2006 Israeli attack on Lebanon, called the "Second Lebanon War" or Milhemet Levanon HaShniya, the outcomes have been less decisive. 

 

True, Israel 'won' in a limited military sense, but because Hezbollah was not disarmed by the UN, that [terrorist] organization has continued to stir things up and much is made in Middle East media about the evolving north-south line splitting Lebanon into what strategically looks like a Hezbollah-occupied (Syrian-backed) east Lebanon and a UN-occupied west Lebanon.

 

Hezbollah's recruitment efforts have been bolstered because it was able to demonstrate small victories in the Lebanon conflict.  As would be expected, these small victories emphasize that Israel's offense was of a modern mechanized cavalry sort and indigenous resistance more of a guerilla nature could be a difficult opposing force.

 

Which brings us up to last week when the Israeli military, rather than Border Police wanted (best I can figure it) to 'take the battle' to the enemy (on the high seas/international waters) to reassert an ability to quite literally project power.  That the Israeli military failed this weekend's high seas mission, and in particular because it failed in a decisive public relations way, means that the Israeli military's dominance of the battlefield might now be questioned by belligerent forces.

 

Way I've got it figured is that Israeli strategists will recognize this and after a 'boarding went wrong' this weekend, will be under some pressure from naval units to allow them to 'put things right' in the world of military opinions and allow them to engage an opposing force a way that will allow them to demonstrate tactical superiority.  Which may be why there are three Dolphin-class subs on station or headed to the waters off Iran now.

 

Strategically, and from a public relations perspective however, the next couple of ships heading towards Gaza might be better handled by the Border Police at the 20-mile line due to the adverse world reaction to this weekend's high seas boardings.

 

So from a linguistics stand point, my best guess is that this is not the mistake, but it might be a lit fuse that sets the events in motion that lead to something on the scale of WW III this November.

 

The more immediate problem is what to do with hundreds who were seized (the term 'arrested' is a little hard to apply 80-miles offshore in international waters).

 

Pretty much gums up any prospects for a peaceful resolution of the Middle East, I'd figure it.

 

The rumored drone kill of al Qaida's #3 (the money man) is a small victory, indeed, compared with these other mounting pressures.

 

I'll ask Clif about the 'linguistic fill level' on this...just from what I'm reading I'd venture somewhere around 40%...which would hint if my guess is any good, that there's the potential of more to come... although it could be those two additional ships coming...

 

Disappointment #2

The second major disappointment of the weekend was the failure of the BP "top kill" effort over the weekend.  Seems now that hopes rest on the drilling of slant-drilled 'relief wells', but any action on that front may not come until August, or even later.

 

Our best source in the oil patch (trust me, he's the 'real deal') tells us:

"What is going on in the gulf is about DRILLING - and that means that even in the oil patch there are few people who could begin to handle this. Drilling engineers are the SMALLEST group within each oil company - geologists, geophysicists, production engineers, reservoirs engineers, HS&E, and admin all are larger departments than the drilling guys! Now you take those and do a division of normal vs deepwater drillers and you get an even smaller group. BP is probably number 2 behind Brazilian Petrobras in terms of deepwater engineering.

So the right guys are there - it's just simply a bitch to do something that hasn't been done before. And if the other leak means we have an additional underground blowout, then the relief well is the only hope. And even then, underground blowouts are hard to control ON LAND, and WITH a relief well.

So unless something happens in next few weeks, or if the other leak gets larger, then the HpH boys look like they may have a solid hit. I am not sure about the starvation thing, unless the oil gets grabbed by a hurricane and whops the RGV - THEN we got a huge hit on the food supply. RGV is second only to Cali in terms of food production....ouch. And most of the citizenry has no idea about the RGV or what it means for the US..."

Well, since Friday's trading, things got a little more complicated on that starvation front with a report that ' the worst grasshopper season in 30-years" is about to be piled on the already beat-up food supply chain.

---

With only a small to medium impact of oil rain/dispersant death, coupled with the grasshopper problems in the West and then toss in the rain impacts up in Tennessee...and possible problems downstream for oil & chemical production, and the food future looks terrible, unless you have your own gardening plans well established by now.

 

We're about getting mugged by yellow squash and zucchini here at the ranch, but cauliflower and cabbage seem to be bug food.  I've been penciling out greenhouse ideas to figure which options will give the best rain (oil) protection and best return on a dollar per square-foot basis.  Seems a timely subject to be working.

 

The prospect of the world having plenty of seafood is quickly going by the wayside as oil drifting undersea is likely to result in huge dead zones.

 

Meantime rumors continue circulating on the net that the US government is drafting up emergency plans to evacuate much of the Gulf Of Mexico coast....  More in this morning's "Coping" section...

 

Flooding Nightmare

This is Day 1 of hurricane season and the first storm has come and gone.  Not getting too much coverage, this was called Agatha, and it dumped about a meter (39") of rain in Guatemala and has killed at least 74.

 

At the other end of the weather spectrum this weekend, we had more than 100 people injured/hospitalized from the heat wave in Indianapolis.

 

The Weak Ahead

Mr. Ure looks quite favorably on the futures being on the downside this morning since I had been this would be a crappy weekend for world affairs and turns out that was  a fine bet.  "Stock futures fall after euro hits new 4-year low".  I'd be looking for new currencies out of Europe which might feature non PIIGS players sooner or later.

 

Not much on the calendar except some great fiction reading Thursday when productivity comes along...always a knee slapper there.

 

Biggie comes the dreaded unemployment rate Friday which will be influenced by how many times Census workers get hired and fired to double and triple count, eh?

 

Ah, the land of slapstick government and banana-peel economics.

 

=== snip and save section ====

 

Coping: 40º Northing

A reader inquires:

"Many thanks for your deep thoughts and the heads up you give financially, etc.

YOUR Quote: That would be very supportive of the North America diaspora references, but I assume you've already figured out that part and why I advised Peoplenomics readers a while back to consider opening a bank account in a bank which not only has offices north of 40º North latitude, but which also have back-office operations north of 40º, too.

My Questions: Why? Seems like the potential of danger/destruction can come from so many directions these days. I'm a subscriber, read the daily urbansurvival, get the Half Past Human reports...I guess I have missed the reason for being north of the 40 degree lat line. Will the Gulf problem move that far inland? Currently in Oklahoma, south of the 40 degree lat, so I'm curious...."

Fine question, that.  Short answer: Yes, Gulf Problems could go that far inland.  Now the really detailed answer for the skeptics:

 

Let's consider what a terrible series of hurricanes could do, if they were to arrive in the Gulf of Mexico in serial fashion over coming months. 

 

Regardless of what you think of people reporting (in hushed conspiratorial tones)  'secret planning' underway for such an eventuality, the thoughtful person always has a 'weather-eye' to the horizon for financial, geopolitical, and terra entity events. 

 

There's enough oil in the GOM right now - and with two more month's worth coming, that I'd be shorting southern real estate investment trusts on the off chance the linguistics are right about 19 months of headlines.
 

The reason 'north of 40º' popped out of Clif's data...but beyond that is that historically, we already know two things.

 

First is that hurricane winds can carry ocean salt and plankton far inland.  With these oil dispersants being used to 'hide' the oil spill, yes, we could be setting up for environmental disaster.

 

What most media aren't talking about is just how huge the area of impact could be, since something like 25% of the Gulf of Mexico is now closed to fishing. 

 

Let me drag out a NASA press release from 2003 which lays it out pretty clearly the patterns and physical mechanisms aloft under the headline "Hurricane Winds Carried Ocean Salt & Plankton Far Inland" in a study of a 1997 Pacific hurricane:

"Researchers found surprising evidence of sea salt and frozen plankton in high, cold, cirrus clouds, the remnants of Hurricane Nora, over the U.S. plains states. Although the 1997 hurricane was a strong eastern Pacific storm, her high ice-crystal clouds extended many miles inland, carrying ocean phenomena deep into the U.S. heartland.

 

Kenneth Sassen of the University of Utah, Salt Lake City, and University of Alaska Fairbanks; W. Patrick Arnott of the Desert Research Institute (DRI) in Reno, Nev.; and David O. Starr of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., co-authored a paper about Hurricane Nora's far-reaching effects. The paper was published in the April 1, 2003, issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.

 

Scientists were surprised to find what appeared to be frozen plankton in some cirrus crystals collected by research aircraft over Oklahoma, far from the Pacific Ocean. This was the first time examples of microscopic marine life, like plankton, were seen as "nuclei" of ice crystals in the cirrus clouds of a hurricane.

 

Nora formed off the Panama coast, strengthened as it traveled up the Baja Peninsula, and the hurricane crossed into California in September 1997. Over the western U.S., Nora deposited a stream of high cirrus, ice crystal, clouds that created spectacular optical effects, such as arcs and halos, above a broad region including Utah and Oklahoma. That stream of cirrus clouds enabled researchers to analyze growth of ice crystals from different nuclei.

 

Different nuclei, like sulfate particles, sea salt and desert dust, affect ice-crystal growth and shape. Torn from the sea surface by strong hurricane winds, sea salt and other particles from evaporated sea spray are carried to the cold upper troposphere in storm updrafts, where the drops freeze and become ice crystals. Plankton, a microscopic organism, is also likely present in the sea spray and is similarly lofted to high levels.

 

"Understanding how ice crystals grow and what determines their shapes is important in understanding how they interact with sunlight and infrared energy," Starr noted. "These interactions are important processes in the global climate system. They are also critical to sensing cloud properties from space, where NASA uses measurements of the reflected solar radiation to infer cloud physical properties, such as ice-crystal size," he said.

 

Data were gathered using ground-based remote sensors at the Facility for Atmospheric Remote Sensing in Salt Lake City and at the Clouds and Radiation Testbed in northern Oklahoma. A research aircraft collected particle samples over Oklahoma. Observations from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 9 (West), launched by NASA and operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, were also used. DRI analyzed the ice crystals collected from Nora.

 

Scientists were using data generated through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The ARM Program's purpose is obtaining field measurements and developing computer models of the atmosphere. Researchers hope to better understand the processes that control the transfer of solar and thermal infrared energy in the atmosphere, especially in clouds, and at the Earth's surface.

 

The ARM energy measurements also double-check data from the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites. By ensuring the satellites are recording the same energy reflected and absorbed by clouds from Hurricane Nora as those provided by the ground data in this study, scientists hope to take fewer ground measurements in the future, and enable the satellites to provide the data.

 

The DOE ARM program, National Science Foundation, and NASA's Earth Science Enterprise funded this research. The Earth Science Enterprise is dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated system and applying Earth System Science to improve prediction of climate, weather and natural hazards, such as hurricanes, using the unique vantage point of space.

As you can see by looking at the map here, the incursion of Nora into the US made it about as far north at the southern end of Nevada.  I'd draw your attention to first landfall which would be about like a Baytown or Houston landfall and then moving up about as fare as the northern Oklahoma border.

 

Right there, we're up to 37º North, but recall that Nora may not have had the 'carry values' in the northerly direction that some hurricanes have displayed; perhaps since Nora's track was over more rugged country with more elevation change than up the Mississippi would offer.

 

Moreover, a storm like Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was a monster in terms of northing...

 

 

So how far is North of 40º?  Cities along the line include places near Philadelphia, Columbus, Springfield, IL, St. Joseph, MO is just south of it, as is Denver, CO.

 

My personal action plan, even though we are on the lower probability side of the GOM?  I wouldn't be closing on recreational property in Florida for a while.  And, I might look up at picking up some good foreclosed property up in Michigan which might be had at bargain basement prices now. 

 

In keeping with how the Universal (as students of ki call it) having a sense of 'wryrony", and as a Gaia reaction to lots of people moving to the Sun Belt for retirement dreams, who knows?  In  strange way the linguistics might be saying something like  "The North might rise again..."

 

World of WuJo:  Attack on the 8's, Redux

If you skipped yesterday's report on the 'attack on the 8's" you might want to catch up by reading that article first.

 

We then reach into the mail bag to see if people who have had the number 8 on a piece of paper in their wallet do any better than anyone else...here's a representative one...

"George , I had an 8 card in my wallet for some time , maybe a couple of years after I heard Glynnis. My fortunes didn't change noticeably but then again they are not any worse either. Kind of a push........

But about a month ago I was thinking about the eight and realized something....My birthday adds up to... yep....8. Numerology is interesting. So I thought maybe I was having a conflict between my drivers license and the card. So I took out the card. You know in the last month I have hit the lottery (small amounts $63 most) several times !!!!

I've had an eight in my pocket all my driving life and to this point it's been darn good !!!!!! Too be fair I usually hit the lotto like this every year , usually in April not May. Actually not last year now that I think about it. So maybe I had a conflict of the eights....don't know but I am careful about what I wish for and how much.

I tell you what gives me pause every so often. I have had a pretty carefree life so far except for a sidetrack on the booze express which gave many including me grief. But that was sabotage of my otherwise fortunate existence. With the state of affairs ongoing I concern myself sometimes that my luck is about to run out.

I don't dwell on it but it is there. The point is trying too many Talismans or Charms may negate the intent. Intent being the key word here. I am coming around to the Quantum view of things. Fate or Intent ?"

But, no doubt about it:  The PTB & their minions are really attacking the number 8 this week.  As another reader observed:

You mention 8s and then Drudge runs a headline with photo of what's-her-name (Carrie? -G) in a T-shirt with 8 on it, and Indo headline about man getting 8 years for harboring terrorists. They are working that number to death today...as both fashion mistake and terror related.

Missing some of the subtlety of how all this works, I'm afraid. 

 

There were how many ships in the first Gaza flotilla?  (6)

 

And how many more are coming?  (2)

 

Which adds up to what number?  Do I need to serve coffee with a two-by-four, or something?

 


Monday May 31, 2010

Money Always Matters

If I had 31¢ worth of brains, I'd be in bed right now, sleeping in on this holiday weekend and wondering why I feel compelled to work 7-days a week on the various efforts I do which runs the gamut from watching markets, to measuring the economy, the working on client projects, to raising goats, attempting a little ham radio enjoyment now and then, plus working on getting back to really current flying airplanes.  But above all, on morning's like this I ask myself "Boy?  What are you doing up at this hour?"

 

The answer is always the same:  "Because money always matters..."

 

Criminals don't take holidays off...and not to worry you if you're traveling...but an unattended home is 'easy pickings' for burglars and thieves.

 

(Most people can't tell the difference  between the two, but the first enters a building to steal while the other takes what's outside such as a car, motorhome, riding lawnmower with a key carelessly left in it, that sort of thing.  To them, money always matters. )

 

To be sure, there's a different class of criminal -- not sure what the right label for 'em is -- but my friend Jas Jain calls 'em banksters, scammers, and fraudsters, depending on occasion, and although many can afford to take time off up in The Hamptons and other high-end haunts, most return to their scenes of crime for more ill-gainery (if I can add that to your investment lexicon) since not only does money always matter to their ilk, but more specifically taking it from you & me is key to their game.

 

How regulators can 'look the other way' at non-human trading, a/k/a high-frequency trading (which is over 73% of Wall Street volume) - and figure it's OK to pit a machine against small investors has always been something of a financial miracle to me. 

 

Until, of course, I got hip to the term "captive regulators"; the regulators who work for government for a while then go to work in the private sector for phatkat deals offered by those they once held accountable on the public's behalf. 

 

And if that's not a reason, the real lowdown is in Ellen Brown's savory Counterpunch article "Computerized Front-Running" which Max Keiser who's commentaries I catch on the Russian-owned RTV free satellite channel which somehow doesn't appear on most American systems because it, er, well, free and we can't have that can we?

 

You can watch back episodes of Keiser by hitting that last link there and assuming you have an adequate Flash player and bandwidth, you'll hear some definitely non-mainstream thinking.

---

Some of Wall Street's ilk don't take holidays off, either, so I suppose I oughta feel a certain kinship towards them.  Why, in Europe today, it's just another day of sorts.  Germany was up a bit, France down a tad and the yUK was pretty much noise-trading.

 

Although the EU trading was flat, Shanghai was down 2.4% overnight, which is not as big a deal (elephant in the room-wise) compared to the Hang Seng, but still, something to watch tonight.  China (Hang Seng) doesn't seem to comprehend the big picture yet.  Maybe it's just a little foreign to them, yet.

 

Which is kind of surprising to my way of thinking, and here's why:

 

The Buffalo News headline sums up the first point pretty well:  "Officials offer grim gulf spill assessment".  The first couple of 'top kill' ideas haven't worked and oilmen say the flow rate during the next attempt could increase by 20% - maybe more is what I'm hearing.

 

Then there's the comment by one official that the leak won't stop "until August'  but the obvious follow-on questions never seems to be asked, so we'll put it out there: "Which year?"

 

That's not just an 'up-too-early-on-a-holiday-smart-ass" question, since in the predictive linguistics out of www.halfpasthuman.com which gives us a sense of what the future holds based on shift in language use around the internet, we've been pretty consistent with the temporal discussion of "19-months" as a kind of ballpark for spill length, although hoping it would reference clean-up still making headlines rather than oil flow.

 

If this "till August" line were to refer to August 2011, then the timing would be into its 17th month after August 20th of next year, which is close enough for home use...so maybe September/October of next year is about right.

 

That would be very supportive of the North America diaspora references, but I assume you've already figured out that part and why I advised Peoplenomics readers a while back to consider opening a bank account in a bank which not only has offices north of 40º North latitude, but which also have back-office operations north of 40º, too.

 

For Elaine and me, that'll mean opening an account up in Washington State on our travels this summer, since we have one of those banks which has back-office processing in North Carolina.  Not that crude will make it that far, but once the Gulf is full and oil starts flowing north coastwise with what's left of the Gulf Stream, I wouldn't place any bets in the Southeast simple because...

 

(Monday's chorus line) " Money Always Matters."

 

Gaza Aid Attacked

Well, that's the picture if you watch Iran's PressTV headlines that read "Gaza aid flotilla attacked, 10 killed".

 

On the other hand, the Jerusalem post headlines that Israeli defense minister "Barak: Flotilla organizers to blame for 15 dead activists".

 

There are two sides to everything but where Israel thinks it has authority to board ships in international waters is where the issue clarifies for me.  The UN's Ban Ki-Moon says he's shocked and calls for a full investigation which means although there may be some ugly PR for a while, Israel will have gotten away with it.

 

Although this really blows up tensions between Turkey and Israel for a while, anyway.

---

Several readers have already asked 'Is this the Israeli mistake' in the predictive linguistics forecast?"  Nope.  See headlines like "Israel stations nuclear missile subs off Iran" for hints as to what's still to come...that's where mistake with multiple generations of carry values seems to come from.  Patience, please while events catch up...

 

A Monday Clinton Rant

Boy, you talk about the pot calling the kettle something, a good reason to go to church might be to give thanks that Hillary is not president.  Latest reason comes in a Fox News headline "Clinton: "Rich 'Not Paying Their Fair Share' in Taxes".

 

So, I got to thinking (this being a holiday weekend when I have time to question a few things) "Wonder what the Clintons made & paid?"

 

Most recent I could find was a 2007 tax filing, during which the Clintons had "total income" of $20,400,000 for 2007 and they paid $5,100,000 in federal income taxes.  That pencils out to paying 25% of their total income as taxes.

 

So I got to looking at my own tax returns which for 2009 showed paying taxes at a 27.54% rate which is not really a fair comparison, since there's two years difference here.  On an adjusted gross income (AGI) basis, we paid 32.66% in income taxes for TY 2009.  Not complaining, just noticing the numbers...

 

BTW, this gets me to wondering why journalists - especially those in financial reporting - don't make their own returns public...both being positions of public trust, and all.

 

My point, I suppose is that it just seems to me that when a guy in the outback of East Texas making less than $200K is paying a higher percentage tax rate than folks who two years ago were making $20+ million a year, that just, oh you know, sounds a little hypocritical maybe? 

 

Like most small business sorts, I guess this is the penalty for not hiring the best tax accountants money can buy...

 

If Hill & Bill were paying more than moi, I'd shut up, I suppose.  At least on this point.  It's only a half mil or so more that they'd be paying to get to the same rate...but I wonder if the Clinton's ever look at the difference between their walk & their talk?  Not to be too hard on 'em; seems to be a disease that many elected officials succumb to.

 

Things that Go Bump Department

How now Mindanao? 6.0 for a Monday wow.
 

Linguistics: Rising Tensions

As usual, cleaning out the email inbox (down to just 5,973 items at the moment) I've come across more than a few expressing skepticism of the www.halfpasthuman.com Shape of Things To Come reports from people who just can't seem to wrap their minds around the idea that "changes in language precede changes in behavior". 

 

This is pertinent because you'll recall that for these past many months we've been pointing to the period particularly between May 6th (which we nailed, thank you) and July 11th (have a nail ready, OK?) as being a period where building tension will become highly apparent.

 

So it's with some satisfaction that I notice the report out Sunday  that a new "Poll finds debt-dogged Americans stressed out."

 

About here you're supposed to feign polite surprise...if the hangover will allow it.

 

==== snip and save section ====

 

Coping: Famine Avoidance Plans

IF we get to the specter of Diaspora based on the Gulf later this year, there will be an incredible need for as much of the rest of America to be growing food as possible.  Waht amazes me is how few politicians are getting out and talking about this since it's clear as day to any thinking person who tries to anticipate rather than simply react to possible future events.

 

So over coming weeks here, we will be focusing more and more on home gardening both now and with a dandy ebook coming (not written by me, BTW) which gets into gardening when times are tough and about to get tougher.

 

Which gets me around to this cool email and link:

"Hi George

I just wanted to thank you for all the good information I have gleaned from your site As well as the inspiration , I felt like I wanted to contribute in my own small way Please feel free to share this with your readers.

I really feel that the way we will make it through this period is to become more Self reliant , so I built my first hoop house or Green house See video and free plans at link below http://vibrationnation.net/?p=72

Really neat video and plans, too.  I especially like the use of lattice to reinforce the end walls...and all for $500.

 

If it starts to rain oil....well, this would keep some plant production going for a while, although no telling about municipal water supplies.

 

If the "leadership" of America isn't proactively doing something about promoting gardening and such now we have to wonder if maybe all those conspiracy theories about population reduction might not have some basis in fact, know what I mean?

 

What had seemed like a wild linguistic hip shot (nuking the well) seems to be getting traction, which our resident nuclear consultant assures us is complete madness.

 

Monday at the WuJo:  Accursed Eight

Want something to ponder?  How about the story out of the Telegraph this past week that a mobile phone number (0888-888-888) has been suspended because three user/owners of that number have died in 10 years.

 

Not sure why the number would lead to any particular significance, except this...stay with me, this will take a little explaining.

 

first:  You need to know that a lot of people have been turned on to putting the number 8 on a simple piece of cardboard or stiff paper and putting it in their wallet.  Most who've tried it see their financial fortunes improve.  Eight has powerful meaning at a preconscious level.

 

So much so that Glynis, the numbers lady who was on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory a while back, has a long explanation of it on her website here.

 

My suspicion?  Sure you want this?  OK, try this one on for size:  Maybe the PTB have an interest in stirring up some fear in the public mind of the power of the number/mystical symbol 8.  Can't have too many people getting hold of financial security...because that's their whole method of control lately.

 

Makes sense to me that "8" would be spun as dangerous/bad/fatal.  And yes, my income has gone up by about $100,000 a year since I put one of those "8" cards in my wallet a number of years ago.

 

Not saying you should do it...but it is one of the best kept open-secrets out there.  Go ahead, put one in there...give it a few months and let me know how your financial fortunes go...

 

If your fortunes improve (See Peoplenomics this week on how Reality Waves work) then it will likely have been something you (ready for the terrible pun?) eight...

 

Try it...you have northing to lose.  Might even write the 8 as the infinity symbol ∞.  After all, money always matters.

 

 

 

 

Google


The Web
UrbanSurvival Only

Chart of the Week!

Before the chart, a little background:

Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug.  Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?"  "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.

 

So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track.  Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.

 

No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes.  So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:

 

 

"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest. 

 

Why sure it is...you bet.  A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...

 

Write when you get rich,

 

George Ure, The People's Economist

 

Further Readings
    Peoplenomics

   LiveOnTenThousand.com

    Half Past Human

    Independence Jrnl

    BOTS: Explained

   Bots:  NE Power Outage

  End Times Report

Solari
 Transition Towns

  "Trader Jim" Goulding    

 Our Favorite Tool:

Minneapolis Fed Inflation Calculator

   

Our Suppliers:


  Graphics By

Machine parts:      www.emachineshop.com

 

   Printed Circuit Boards

    www.pad2pad.com

 

   Commodity Trading

   www.fortwealth.com

 

   Bullion Buying/Selling

   www.kitco.com

 

   Web Hosting

   www.emwd.com

 

   Radiation Monitoring

   www.ki4u.com

 

   Emergency Food Stores

   www.beprepared.com

 

   Tequila

   www.eldontequila.com

 

 Organic Heirloom Seeds:


 

 

 

 

 

  openECGproject Badge

 

 

New Reader Notes

This is a Free Financial News and economic information site updated daily except Sundays. 

If you can not get to www.urbansurvival.com from your corpgov workstation, please try our mirror site: www.independencejournal.com . This site is also available at www2.urbansurvival.com  and www3.urbansurvival.com  which may not be blocked.  

·        Bulletins are posted as our work schedule permits and as events warrant. 

·        I try to publish Monday-Saturday by 8 AM Central Time/ 9 AM Eastern with 7:55 Central pretty normal.  If you're easily offended by the occasional typo, then check about 8:15 Central  we usually proofread and spell check after the first post.  We've had some amusing typos in the past... Sometimes a Saturday issue will be dropped due to projects & chores on our ranch.

·        Financial and news judgments of the publisher are not to be considered "advice"

·        Please read and understand our disclaimer

·        All original content © 1997-2010 by George A. Ure except sources as linked.  Very short extracts are occasionally used under 'fair use' but never entire articles without permission. That would be beyond 'fair use'.

·        Copyright of all linked articles is cited under fair use as this is a topic specific site (long wave economics and humanistic economics, which we call "Peoplenomics"

 

Our premium service, which contains more in depth reports is available on a $40/year subscription basis.  Details at www.peoplenomics.com/subscribe.htm.

 

The "web bot project" indicates a reference to the time predictive technology embodied in the "Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis Intelligence Reports" technology pioneered and operated by Tenax Software Engineering for www.halfpasthuman.com.  An intro to the technology is here. Extracts, when used, are with exclusive permission and any references on other web sites must contain a link to both this site and HalfPastHuman's main page: www.halfpasthuman.com.

 

Site Contact: george@ure.net  

  
This site is formatted for viewing at 1024 X 768, Firefox or MSIE 6.0 or later and a current version of the free Adobe Acrobat reader for certain linked articles, available free from Adobe.com at URL: http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html

 

© 2010 Copyright Notice: The author(s) of this site requires that any links or use of  material from this site include the author's name and a link to this site. All links included in our material must also be included in citations.  Address questions to: george@ure.net.  Copyright infringers will be pursued, and please note that Fair Use requires identification of the author/source and we require a link  which when you think about it is really minimal recognition of our works and the works of those who are quoted herein.