- Friday about 8 AM Central Time ....some typos are fixed by
Saturday July 3, 2010
10:55 CST New
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A Few Weekend Notes
This being the weekend (Saturday,
oh-dark-thirty as I write) the content shared M-F free (for now)
is only available to subscribers to
This is where I do 'in depth' reports - usually a similar column
to the weeklies here on Saturday and then a 'biggie' on Sunday.
Not sure where we will go this weekend, but the part two
weekends have been "The Diaspora Handbook - Parts 1 & 2" were
presented and if you live around the Gulf, you might want to too
Subscriptions to Peoplenomics are
what powers this site, the
www.nationaldreamcenter.com site, and the mirror site,
www.independencejournal.com site; your support is
As for schedules, Monday is a
holiday in the US, but since lusting after money (allong with sex
& power) doesn't really take days off, we'll have a
regular, although possibly shorter report here on Monday.
Till then, stay out of trouble,
count your fingers both before and after fireworks, and remember
only you can prevent forest fires.
Culinary Note: Rather than the usual 4th of July
fixings (brats, wieners, hamburgers, tater salad, beer, etc.) I've decided
to put on my Chef George hat again and do Chinese cooking.
I figure eventually we'll all be eating Chinese food, so I might
as well get a jump on things; think of it as prepping the palate
for the post-Dollar world.
Not to put too fine a point on it,
but the way I figure, China's ascendant right now based on their
positive mental attitude (PMA) as much as anything. When I
see things in the Amazon store like
Fortune Cookies Individually Wrapped 1 Lb - Buy 4, Get 5 Shipped!
I don't see fortune cookies associated with non-Asian
countries, do you? We really need some forward-looking,
motivating kind of food and happy meals just don't do it for
Gee, you don't think there's
anything to this "You are what you think!" stuff, do you? Gets
me to pondering just how much US foreign policy is driven by
Friday July 2, 2010
Oil Outlook Darkens
NOAA has just released
the latest computer runs which model where the oil from the GOM
disaster is likely to go in coming months. Here's the
latest 90 day forecast. This is a summary chart of the "Percent
of Spill Scenarios that will cause a dull sheen in a given grid
as of Day 120 for a 33,000 barrels/day release for 90 days"...
Let'see if tyhis
qualifies as "good news", shall we?
• There is a low
probability of shoreline impacts from eastern central
Florida up the Eastern Seaboard (20 percent diminishing to
less than one percent). Potential impacts become
increasingly unlikely north of North Carolina as the Gulf
Stream moves away from the continental U.S. at Cape
Hatteras. If oil does reach these areas, it will be in the
form of tar balls or highly weathered oil.
If they used more pessimistic numbers (such as the 'closer
to real' 60,000-100,000 bbl/day flow rates) things would be very
much worse than even this. Not a happy situation indeed,
although it does bring into focus why the past couple of weeks
www.peoplenomics.com reports, we've been working on The
The 800 Lb
(Misleading)) Statistical Gorilla
monthly unemployment report shows the unemployment rate (this'd
be the offishul one) sank to 9.5% in the latest report out this
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June,
and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline
in payroll employment reflected a decrease (-225,000) in the
number of temporary employees working on Census 2010.
Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 83,000.
Household Survey Data
Both the number of unemployed
persons, at 14.6 million, and the unemployment rate, at 9.5
percent, edged down in June. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups,
the unemployment rate for adult women (7.8 percent)
declined, while the rates for adult men (9.9 percent),
teenagers (25.7 percent), whites (8.6 percent), blacks (15.4
percent), and Hispanics (12.4 percent) showed little or no
change. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.7 percent, not
seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In June, the number of long-term
unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
unchanged at 6.8 million. These individuals made up 45.5
percent of unemployed persons. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force
participation rate fell by 0.3 percentage point in June to
64.7 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.5
percent, edged down over the month. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed
part time for economic reasons (some- times referred to as
involuntary part-time workers), at 8.6 million, was little
changed over the month but was down by 525,000 over the past
2 months. These individuals were working part time because
their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to
find a full- time job. (See table A-8.)
In June, about 2.6 million
persons were marginally attached to the labor force, an
increase of 415,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not
seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the
labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had
looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were
not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
"How can you have 225,000 Census temps drop and only 83K in new
hiring and show an improvement in the unemployment rate?"
Chew up this blue pill while I explain: You go over to the
stats and scroll down to the workforce number. If jobs
suck, just throw out as many workers in the workforce as you
find the civilian labor force dropped by 652-thousand for the
month. Cool statistical trick, huh? I mean who'd
have thunk it with all the people graduating from school and
all, but remember, we are taken for fools in this
if the labor force didn't have half a million people disappear
(as the stats would argue) then the labor force would have been
154,393,000 which would make the employment rate 90.10 percent
which means the unemployment rate would really be 9.9 percent.
have that - so left ship off the equivalent of everyone inside
the city limits of Seattle and forgitaboutit.
But not so
faster, buckaroo. The Alternative Measures of Labor
Underutilization table A-15, line U-6 reports a drop from 16.6
percent to 16.5 percent, which I think is within sampling error
of no change.
haul out the ever-popular CES
Birth-Death Model where the "we can't prove it, but we think the
following jobs were created" guesses are summed up.
an aspiring fiction writer, having 80,000 jobs made up in
leisure and hospitality might play, but having 24,000 new
construction jobs with the housing numbers out this week?
Hand me the ViceGrips...time to start pinching myself.
Guessing 147,000 new jobs just seems wildly optimistic, but take
away half those and the report would really fall apart.
payrolls down and unemployment rate improves - that's how it
happens. The only question is "Who's gonna believe that?"
The answer in a half hour when the opening bell rings down on
Where's My Holiday
Seeing the markets pop
back up a little bit wouldn't surprise me much today - not a
huge rally, but there's an historic tendency for markets
to put on a little 'good show' when the Nation gets into long
Back in my earliest
'news days', I remember having nothing to read in the way of
real news over my first Fourth of July. The newsroom
jokes centered around "Let's rewrite
Hints from Heloise?" to "How about we rewrite the
farm report from last week? No one'd notice..."
major holiday that weekend that came along didn't see these same
mistakes made - I had the crew store away 'undated feature
material' so over the next couple of days, look for lots of
fluff & puff in headlines since the talking heads won't be
turning out as much stuff since many of them get holidays, too.
last? For another week...maybe....
The Depression to
house repo'ed? Lost your job? Think the Greater
Depression is already here?
your confusion is excusable...it's still on the way, but not
A dandy note in the 'expert view' section over at Forbes
contributed by Delta Global Advisors chief economist Michael
Pento reads like notes from around UrbanSurvival...and well
worth your time.
So is the
Christopher Rugaber/AP story "Weak
economic data suggest recovery is fizzling".
Several times I've
gotten emails asking "Are my savings in a credit union any safer
than in a bank?" I dunno. Depends which bank and
which credit union, I suppose, doesn't it?
I do know is there are three credit union mergers/losses
to be watching:
"NCUA files notice of claim for losses at U.S. Central FCU"
Community Federal Credit Union placed into liquidation;
Chartway Federal Credit Union purchases and assumes assets"
Delta Federal Credit Union merges, Members now served by
Shreveport Federal Credit Union"
financial reporting feeding frenzy, but worth noticing that
banks are not alone in the tough times as we sink...
the J-Post this morning says
Israel is planning to apologize to Turkey over their boarding of
a gaza-bound ship on the high seas. But even with some
bucks to compensate flotilla members who were injured, we wonder
if Israel will be able to get relations with Turkey normalized.
boarding case the Israeli mistake in linguistics for a
couple of years? Nope. Not big enough. THE
mistake is still ahead, sorry.
See the Asia
Times article "Anatomy
of an attack on Iran" by David Moon. In particular,
likely route to Iran, beginning at regional dusk preferably
in the dark a new moon, is to fly a great circle around
Then click over here
are see when the
dark new moon date is this month.... it's what day? I
won't spoil it for you.
Watch Left Field
North Korea could get
hot too, since
the US and China are playing "Chicken" in the Yellow Sea.
Bait & Switch
What's a president
with sagging popularity, a weak/auctioned congress to do with
confronted with unhappy voters, a runaway environmental disaster
and wars going badly?
Bring on the emotionally hot "Immigration Issue".
Yeah, that'll keep them peasants off balance for a few minutes.
And if it doesn't?
What then? Ah...here's the answer...
CNN's iReport carries
the headline "Facebook
has deleted Boycott BP, leaving almost 800,000 fans hanging..."
If you think this is
wrong, just wait until corpgov
gets the new internet kill switch. Oh boy, won't
that stifle dissent!
Read Gordon Long's analysis of how
collapse could bring dowen the world...or at least give a
Lehman-sized run at it.
Poor Pay for Cali
Arnold is about to axe California state worker pay to minimum
wages until the state figures out a budget oughta make this
a glum weekend in the Golden State.
Since we're getting
closer by the day to the remaining Great Quakes which keep
popping out of predictive linguistics due over the balance of
this year (as many as a half dozen left to go) we might as well
get ahead of the curve a bit by reviewing reader Tony Ring's
most excellent monthly earthquake data he's parsed off the USGS
database for us:
This is an ultra-long
view of the data - goes back to 1980 up there on the left and
through June of this year on the right. Say, you don't see
anything worrisome in this, do you?
China is planning to move just under 350,000 people because
of water availability.
Big Wet Spot
Northeast Mexico is awash in hurricane Alex remnants.
Not getting much
Flooding in Romania has killed 22 people.
===== snip and save
Here Come Tax Hikes
The story "Six
Months to Go Until the Largest Tax Hikes in History" got
me to thinking about things.
True, there are many
Americans who ask "What do we get for our taxes? Mine
are too damn high..." And, it's a fair question.
But the other side of it seldom gets answered: What are we
not getting because we pay our taxes?
A pretty decent
lifestyle, compared with mob rule comes to mind. Not that
mob rule ever works in the long term - can't think of any
countries ruled by mobs that are seated in the UN currently - so
that's one thing I figure our taxes buy.
Then there's the
matter of national defence. Not that I support all
present military adventures, but the other side of it is
that we haven't had many airplanes fall out of the sky lately so
despite the tax gripes (and the horror stories of six-year olds
being on no fly lists and such) the fact is that (for now, knock
on wood) things in the homeland seem pretty safe.
All that costs money -
and since congress is a 'least pain' seeking enterprise, that
is, seeking the least-painful course between total business
domination and voter revolt in the home districts - someone's
gonna have to pay.
The lasting legacy of
the Bushies has been an attack on non-business-owning workers
and an elevation of the bidding for corporate favors, which the
Obama administration hasn't yet solved because democorps eat at
the same trough. Consequently, I figure our taxes (or
protection money, if you want to think about it that way) will
The impact of the tax
hikes is, however, something I do have a little bit of control
over where they hit in our personal lives. How much of a
The bracket change
that Elaine & I are in means that we will go from about 33% to
36% - another $1,700 per year, roughly.
I sit back and wonder
"How does this fit into the Big Picture of Life for George &
For sure, we will be
able to make up for some of the tax hike by reducing our cost of
food. More and more is coming out of our garden, which at
this time of year means eating cantaloupe and squash like crazy,
along with fresh tomatoes with everything, including in the
scrambled eggs for breakfast. Sp the garden will save us
We don't have many
improvements left to make on the house, either; the new A/C, new
furniture, up-to-date electronics, yada, yada...is all in and
done. So what we save on decorating knick-knacks will save
something, too. Property taxes shouldn't be going
up too much, either, and if they do, a simple appeal of
valuation should keep things in check.
transportation? Since I sold the 'red demon', my bill for
Porsche parts will fall to zero - not that I spent that much,
but it takes an item off the insurance. And since the
Dependable old Daewoo has been sold, I figure my savings on the
auto front alone will more than make up for the tax hike.
I keep looking at buying an airplane (business use) but prices
are s,till drifting downward as many owners of planes who are
selling them have not yet recognized that we're in a falling
employment/deflationary environment. Give 'em time.
communications keeps getting cheaper; the annual ham radio club
membership is still the deal of the century for keeping in touch
on 2-meters, and the Go Phone with it's buy-them-as-you-go cell
time plan contains our annual phone costs at something
reasonable. Putting kids on a 'communications diet'
doesn't seem like a bad thing either, especially since folks
oughta be able to use government as the scapegoat - no point
kids not tasting how government impacts their lives, too.
Moderation in finance
may help, too. I'm solemnly sworn to try and hold my
investment gains to 50% for the year, although I shamefully am
running a bit ahead of that at the current rate. No doubt,
that'll moderate, making my short-term taxable gains smaller.
All of which is to say
that despite taxes going up, too many of our finest young people
off defending oil & mineral-rich lands, and the droning whines
from both sides of the political spectrum, there still isn't a
better country to live in, near as I can figure.
Something that I
assure you, we'll be keeping in mind this weekend as we observe
what could be America's latest birthday observance before the
corporate checkbook revolution is complete.
Enjoy it while we can.
And that might be a
while: A new "Study
says about 15% of people have genetic profit for long life."
Inquiring mind wants
"First, thanks for
continually providing such a thought-provoking site. I’ve
been a regular reader for several years now. Recently we’ve
moved into a better home (renting) but our storage is
limited. Also, I try to avoid single points of failure. I’m
considering renting an interior small storage unit in a 3
story metal-walled, concrete, and brick storage place. As I
thought about it more, I was curious what your thoughts
would be on what protection, if any such a structure would
provide against EMP to an protected electronic device?
It would provide
some protection, for sure. Especially if the roof and metal
sides were bonded and grounded. (Won't vouch for
electrolysis effects where the metal touches ground, though.
Still, for mission-critical electronics, I'd still put 'em
inside a metal garbage can. I'm not sure where to find a
big enough garbage can to store solar panels. Wrapping
them in hardware cloth might work.
Someone wrote in and
asked (in so many words) "If you can Clif look at such terrible
things in the future, how it is you sleep seeing the horror of
what's to come?"
Simple. Can't speak
for Clif on this but a retooled of The Serenity Prayer, using
the more appropriate term "Universe" (important to keep the
scale right) is one starting point. Self-medication,
liberally applied, is the other.
Although the odds of
us moving are pretty low - if no one buys our homestead here in
East Texas, lots of people have been using the economic slowdown
in the Post House Flipping era to settle down in nice places.
"We have been
following your advise for the last 3 years and found our
haven in Sandpoint, ID. I don't know if you have a
destination in mind for your move but I would recommend
looking at this area. It is a beautiful area that has
everything we need, especially like minded people and
abundant natural resources."
Heard a lot of good
things about Idaho, but not enough ocean sailing there for my
tastes - and winters are cold. We're still trying to
figure out what's really better than where we are. Even
Eastern Oregon has its drawbacks; not having producing oil wells
within walking distance, just for openers, comes to mind.
Oh, sure, some of the wells product only a barrel or two of
wellhead condensate per month, but a half barrel of that will
get us into town for groceries should it every come to that.
Of course there may not be much in the way of groceries in such
times, but that's another matter.
Time will tell - and
like I've said, we're not exactly desperate. Worst thing
that can happen is living happily ever after here....
No, we didn't say that
Israel would attack Iran on that date - just that in the
linguistics that's about ther end of building tension and the
flip over into release language.
A kind of WuJo note:
A reader told me Thursday that she's been absolutely bedeviled
with seeing 7:11 several times a day now. My advise was to
name between 7AM and 8 AM and again between 7 PM and 8 PM...that
oughta cut down on it.
'Token White Guy'
Our former Houston
Bureau Chief, who's been doing a little gold and oil development
and trading of this 'n that down in Indonesia, happened to catch
a piece on Lew Rockwell's site about how
"Chinese companies 'rent' white foreigners. True that,
"This is nothing new, nor is it
limited to China. In fact, it happens all over Asia. Here in
Indonesia, I have been given honoraria simply to show up to
functions. My friends and I call it being the Token White
There is a certain status to
having white guys at your side. In Indonesia, and I suspect
in China as well, people have been so poor for so long that
things like international travel are rare in the extreme.
Also, whites have been the bosses and owners of just about
everything for so long, that having a white guy at your side
shows that you have attained the same status. This practice
won't last for much longer. With the implosion of the West
and the rising influence and power of the East, white guys
will eventually become persona non grata, but until that
happens, you can be assured that the Token White Guy will be
a fixture at business and social functions throughout the
Is it strange or wrong? I recall
a time in the 1970s when white guys got mileage out of
having Saudi princes hanging out with them. Playing
perceptions has a long tradition, and this current practice
has an ancient pedigree.
In the meantime, being paid to
party ain't such a bad gig...
In fact, if you are an
Asia gazillionaire and would like some 'token white folks' to
trot through your next gala, send Elaine & me first class
tickets and we'd be pleased to show up. I promise not to
say anything particu7larly inflammatory and Elaine's not only
good looking, but a good conversationalist. Our contact
information is below. She'll sip white wine and I'll drink
just about anything short of hazmat leftovers. We clean up
Unlike the Treasury
Secretary, however, the closest to Mandarin we get is oranges.
So if Tim tops the token list, so be it, our feelings aren't
Only catch to our
offer? I get to write about the experience...which in
itself would make such a command performance worthwhile. here
lately the only use we've had for our passports is as phto-IF
Hell, I'll even were
the Chauffer's hat if I get to drive a Bentley. Little
weak on wrong-side-of-the-road driving, though. been a few
Here's another reader
note from overseas, along the same lines:
"I'm scheduled to
be Uncle Sam dancing on stilts for the 2010 Shanghai World
Expo USA Pavilion Independence Day parade which will be on
July 2nd & July 4th. Weather pending. I'm very excited."
If the prose is
familiar, it's because this reader is a professional clown, who
has written in before ( he took
umbrage as his profession being likened to actions by
congress, if I recall).
I'm pleased to report,
as your chronicler of change, that a professional clown is
representing us as "Uncle Sam" in Shanghai.
It's ever so much more
honest than having the State Department to it.
Send your comments
A Diaspora Handbook - Part Two
Kitting Out the "New Nomads"
Universe mostly speaks in a voice quiet enough to be ignored. But
this week it was screaming at me about finishing off the "Diaspora
Handbook". Not only did a client call and ask me to write up an
'escape plan' which would involve potentially fleeing from the south
but a different friend called and described his situation in South Florida and
wondered "When do I need to be out of here?" To which my obvious
answer was "You're still there? What part of yesterday
isn't clear?" So this week a discussion of some things you may wish
to quietly ponder if there's any chance at all of you becoming one of
America's "new nomads" in the future. Where's the VW Microbus when
we need it, huh?
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Dream A Little Dream...
If you have an especially vivid dream that seems to have
something to do with the future, please write it down so
others can look it over for possible future/predictive
values. Simple go to
www.nationaldreamcenter.com and click over to the
The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video
(sound track by guess who?) that
shows the Maxa Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this
is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great.
First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira
Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either
follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:
Once you try it out, to upgrade to
the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!)
on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to
remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser
specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run
"Live on $10,000" A
Having a hard
time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A
good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our
$10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
automatic download. It's written in an information dense
style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a
vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to
migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle
left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything"
should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home
improvement/home creation project before, too.....
Click here for the index and details.
Yet Another A Gardening Pitch
No time like summer
to do the work to get ready for bountiful harvests in the
future, regardless of what the economy does. My friend Gary Seman,
who's been an avid 'make do' gardener for years has put together
a 70-page ebook on survival gardening using things like old
tires to make raised beds and it's really worth the $15 bucks,
What makes his ebook
so interesting is that it is all based on a few hand tools and
he has this back-friendly "no tilling" approach that saves a
whole bunch of effort...to get there, he's big on kill mulches
and such, too.
Also not to be missed is the
vertical hydroponics work of my commodity broker JB Slear and I
have written a simple book to get you started on high density
hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little
creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try
out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of
produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony
(if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's
just $10 bucks here...
get sick of me saying "Learn to Garden!" so much, and I'm
certainly no expert on the subject, but short of running out of
water, which is why you want to live on a creek or river if you
ever have the opportunity to make a choice, gardening and full
stomach is extremely important.
Pass It On
A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most
mornings. If you know of anyone who might also like our
and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read,
send the link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say
in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..."
week's report is always here.
Thursday July 1, 2010
Monkeys, Markets, &
the Middle East
I've spent a little
time this week talking with my predictive linguistics pal Clif
High about how the rest of this year could work out,
given that we are already starting to see some 'linguistic fill'
on language sets that ought to accompany a war in the Middle
Not to put too fine a
point on how the 'secret sauces of time monks' work, but if you
had a series of "Shape of Things to Come" reports and you could
glimpse some ways into the future, what are some other tools
that you could set up which would be closer to real-time than
the months-long process of of sending out spiders and then
shoving 100-million data reads through 400-odd executables hung
together with baling scripts and chewing code in order to get a
'full' report on the future?
One way might
be to set up a news-reader parser and run it against the
distilled word-use expectations to see how things begin to fit
in the run-up to war expected shortly.
you'd done this (in your ever so abundant free time) you'd
notice that as of a couple of days ago, the Israeli attack on
Iran would have passed about 9½
percent fulfillment on language use alone. That is,
if you hypothetically were looking at (rss/atom) newsfeeds and
You'd start to get real puckered
when stories like
the one about Fidel Castro predicting 'nuclear war', not so
much because of how Cuba/Venezuela and others will 'play' their
cards, but because the linguistic expectations are being
set just so...in a way that gets us all toward the
post-apocalyptic world as shown in movies like "The Postman" and
"The Road" - which unbeknownst to me showed up in Wednesday's
mail, so as soon as I was done being interviewed by
Devvy Kidd last night, first
thing that slaps me in the eyeballs is the grim cannibalism
scenes from "The Road". Like Universe is sending hints via
timing of other? Hold that thought as example #1 which
we'll return to in a minute.
To put this discussion
in the larger context (which is getting me damned by both
peaceful Israelis and peaceful Iranians, FWIW) remember that in
the SOTTC reports we were going to have a US general with
mal/bitter words which was filled by General McChrystal's
interview with Rolling Stone. That would be 'flavor
guidance' for the July 11th-ish events, and these in turn would
jointly be a kinda of soup-base for the real SHTF events of Nov.
8-12 this fall.
In order to make sure
the SOTTC report is properly interpreted, after our 'gaming'
this week of how this might all work out (which is to say badly)
Clif wrote up a little article "Tick...tick...tick
- Israeli Mistake, Confusion, and a chart" which you can read
here. You go read it and I'll make sure these screen
characters are still here upon your return, since Clif's report
was wholesale ripped-off, you might as well get a sense of how
things operate in the background which we haven't much talked
about before, although this is just the scratching of the
If the possible
use of language-shift as a way of peering into at least the
vaguest outline of the future seems a little far-fetch, and I'll
grant you - it is - please feel free to read through the
archives of this site where you'll discover that yes, there may
be something to the idea that with enough processing horsepower,
and a bent toward radical use of language, the future can be
pretty accurately inferred.
Still, if you're
skeptical, a general outline of concepts and processing path is
outlined in this
PowerPoint (as a .PDF) from last August when it was
discussed briefly in public by a certain wild-eyed trader.
As often happens
when I get a report from Clif - and when we've noodled around
the general linguistic expectations, I'll go to the
Rolodex and send out bits and pieces to various contacts I have
and solicit their best inputs, so that when I write my columns
about what may be ahead for markets, they pick a kind of
middle-ground between what Clif writes from the pure language
side, and often as not, the runaway machinations of my own
Let me reframe this
discussion and stir-fry it for you.
Clif's SOTTC report
- output from the rickety time machine - is now 'in the wild'
all over the net, since some stoopid MF really doesn't want us
going about our pursuit of unraveling time in advance, so we
But the next
layer of analysis is what happens if you turn it over --
Clif's summary of change-to-come -- to an experienced 'war
gamer' type. You ask 'em something like "Is there a
credible way we get to his outcome?
Since Clif and I
have problems figuring how we could see such a 120-day gap
between a possible Israeli attack in mid July against Iran,
followed by three months of 'simmering' time before global
thermonuclear war, I reach into the Rolodex, send a request, and
here's the analysis that comes back from an expert 'war gamer'
that explains our three-month hysterisis period between nuke
production strike and GTW in November. Please appreciate
that for reasons I hope are obvious, the identity of the war
gamer must remain anonymous.:
How to Have a Bad Summer:
"The potential tension release
linguistics revolving around Israel first requires some
background to set the stage for the angst that is described.
The U.S. is Israel's
international sponsor. Diplomatically, we have stood by the
Jewish state since its modern resurrection, despite her
sinking of the USS Liberty during the Six Day War in '67 and
building a formidable nuclear arsenal in the past 45 years.
Both Bush and Obama have carried
forward an important element of the National Security Policy
scripted by the Clinton Administration's National Security
Adviser, Sandy Berger. That policy element is termed
"engagement and enlargement," whereby the US deliberately
fosters new democracies and aids existing ones with the
ultimate goal of world peace and economic cooperation. The
key premise of this policy is that democracies are less
likely to go to war against each other, over time preventing
the loss of national blood and treasure.
Israel is the longest lived
democracy in the Middle East, accompanied only by democratic
newcomers Iraq and Afghanistan, both directly opposed to the
existence of the State of Israel. Iraq and Afghanistan,
while generally democratic, ultimately default to Islamic
Sharia law, overseen by clerics holding generally
unfavorable views of Israel. Israel does not have a
theocratic underpinning to its constitution. Yes, Orthodox
Jews hold a sizable block in the knesset, but other more
secular blocks form the majority. The "Jewish" state is a
true democracy, with even a few Palestinians holding elected
office in the knesset. A Jew could never be elected to
office in present day Afghanistan or Iraq.
An American diplomatic conundrum
inherently exists in assisting the nascent Islamic
democracies while also supporting a tried and true regional
democracy in Israel. We provide US forces for the security
of Iraq and Afghanistan at great national cost, but also
enjoin Israel in treaties and executive agreements pledging
American assistance in times of trouble.
Regarding the language and
tension values that are causing you and Cliff such angst,
they no doubt mirror what I've been hearing from buddies at
or in 'orbit' around the Pentagon. Much contingency planning
and exercising has happened over the past year or so
revolving around potential hostilities between Israel and
Iran. Such plans run the gamut of possible Israeli and US
diplomatic and military options. So the linguistics that
were picked up as early as last year may revolve around this
comprehensive contingency planning factor.
This, BTW, is routinely done for
many of our allies. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the
President's senior military adviser, must have a library of
covert and overt military options readily available to offer
the President at a moment's notice should a crisis or armed
conflict erupt anywhere in the world. With enough warning,
viable options can be pared down to a manageable lot. If no
warning is provided and a conflict erupts by surprise, the
Chairman and the President can find themselves suddenly
engaged in a hellish spectrum of diplomatic, military and
ultimately world crises with hundreds of available options
from which to choose and limited time to make the
The U.S. thus employs a wide net
of intelligence to avoid such total surprises. Obama and
Admiral Mike Mullen, JCS Chairman, would probably but not
positively be aware of Israel's regional intent via
diplomatic channels and/or intelligence via "national
technical means." Chances are US special forces would
already be in place on land and sea, providing up to the
minute reports augmented by overhead assets to the
President's situation room if an attack on Iran appeared
Knowing before hand about
Israel's apparent aggressive intentions would no doubt cause
much angst in both Obama and Adm. Mullen, more so if the
knowing came from intelligence vice Israeli diplomatic
channels. Also, Israel deciding to attack without US consent
and support could trigger much uncertainty in the Pentagon
and the WH about how to react and proceed before, during and
after the attack.
During the Napoleon Wars, a
Prussian general named Carl von Clausewitz wrote a seminal
book on war called . . . , well, "On War." In it, Clausewitz
rather brilliantly deduced that "war is policy by other
means." In other words, a nation uses policy to ultimately
achieve its aims. If the range of possible peaceful policies
fail, then aggressive policies will ultimately be used --
aka, war. So a military leader must also be a politician,
understanding the various policy decisions that ramp up to
But then, what about a President
who does not have solid military acumen? How do they
understand the policy progression up to war, and then act
accordingly? A "long night of the soul" would surely ensue,
wherein the uninitiated President confronts his war room
staff, doubts them, and perhaps even agonizes over how
America should ultimately respond.
Israel's Iran policy is
essentially: "Iran must not get nuclear weapons." If Israel
cannot realize that policy diplomatically, the Jewish nation
will ultimately use force to achieve it. America has a firm
policy of not using nukes first. It is not certain what the
Israeli official policy is. However, Israel, like the US,
will ensure "survival of the state." Unlike the US, Israel
is literally surrounded geographically by avowed enemies. If
their national command authorities decide Iran is close to
making nukes, and policy states "no nukes for Iran due to
Iranian rhetoric predicting the end of Israel, then the full
range of military options are ultimately on the table for
the Jewish state.
Iran seeks regional power and
influence. Ballistic missiles allow a nation to bypass big
navies and air forces, threatening nations that are
geographically removed, not bordering along side them.
Adding nukes to the mix adds a big power hammer. Now,
whenever this nation threatens or postures, everyone must
take notice. This is why Iran want nukes, and why the
Taliban and al Qaeda want to overrun Pakistan. They want
the power only a nuke can give.
As intelligence offers hard
indications that Israel "will" strike Iran, not just the US
but Russia and possibly China may make a physical presence
in the area, for they have good intel machines and people
too. Since Russia aided the Iranian nuke facilities
construction, they may place engineers and/or troops at the
Iranian facility, complicating Israel's planning.
War ships will likely enter the
area. Oil tankers and commercial shipping may ask for and
receive military escort, escalating tensions mightily. Any
small incident could quickly blow up into a major event with
Iran may try to board one or
more ships, or they may fire upon US flagged tankers or
military ships, trying to create an economic crisis in their
favor. US carrier battle groups will pull into the Med. and
Persian Gulf, flying round the clock sorties to try and keep
the peace. All the while, the opposite may happen as
tensions steadily rise.
This initially would suit Israel
just fine. Israel wants outside help in pressuring Iran to
stop nuke weapons production. So the above would probably
sit well with the knesset and PM Netanyahu -- for a time.
Sooner or later, Israel must act to insure its own survival
and security. But if the foreign presence fails to achieve
the desire Israeli result, the Jewish state will
increasingly feel pressure to act.
Striking a target deep under a
granite mountain is next to impossible with conventional
explosives. There is the possibility that a large 'bunker
buster" Earth penetrating weapon might damage or destroy a
lab buried deep under a mountain. The best possible chance
of military success in this situation involves the
employment of a small yield Earth penetrating nuke, which
has rocket assisted terminal burn and a Titanium nose cone
that drives it 100 or more feet into the ground. At this
depth, detonation fractures the rock strata, causing a
rolling quake that destroys any underground
chambers/facilities above, below and horizontal to the
blast. Better yet, using several conventional bunker busters
simultaneously with a low yield nuke masks the radiation
released into the atmosphere. If any radiation is eventually
detected, it can easily be blamed on the Iranian nuke
There is the distinct likelihood
that the Iranians may employ deception, leading Israel to
believe that they are attacking the 'correct' nuclear
target, but pulling a Saddam Hussein tactic and putting
women and children or a mosque at the 'target' location. Or,
they may lay a trap, lure in the Israeli forces, then hand
the Jewish state a solid military defeat. Hard to tell how
such acts of deception ultimately play out, but Iranian
deception could well factor in to the "mistake" linguistics.
This "mistake" would certainly extend a very "long night of
the soul" of crisis and indecision for Obama and his
national command staff.
Some difficult questions arise
for President Obama: "IF" Israel policy necessitates war and
the use of nukes in a first strike attack, how can the US
possibly come to their aid? If the US does not aid Israel,
what are the political and economic ramifications at home
and abroad for America? What options does America have to
prevent Israel from attacking? How will formerly neutral
regional Muslim nations respond to the Israeli aggression?
Which 'Arab' nations will aid 'Persian' Iran, and which will
stand idly by and watch from the bleachers (or perhaps even
let Israel overfly their nations to strike and then return
"War is policy by other means."
If Israel chooses to attack Iran, it does so in order to
achieve a national policy that could not be achieve short of
conflict. This pressures the US administration to choose
their ally. neutrality, or something else entirely. The US,
severely strung out militarily with a war in Afghanistan and
a military security operation in Iraq, can ill afford to
join en mass with Israel in a Middle Eastern war. China and
Russia will surely seek their own national advantages
through overt and covert exploitation of the crisis,
pressuring America to act in a way that best serves
Russian/Chinese interests. America seemingly loses status
and face no matter how it ultimately responds, fueling
endless angst and increasing indecision in the WH.
It is easy to imagine America's
allies pleading: "Pick a side. Please, do something,
anything, but put an end to this escalation." But President
Obama is a Nobel Peace laureate. Will he feel pressure not
to endorse or enjoin in nuclear war, even though America
ultimately pledge its support to Israel ? The resulting
"long night of the soul" could well consume the sitting
president -- and those around him. Afraid of doing the wrong
thing, they could well choose to do nothing. And the world
would find itself collectively holding its breath -- and
praying -- as Israel fights for its very survival in a war
with no allies. Increasingly desperate, the Jewish state has
only its formidable nuclear arsenal to fall back upon to
insure its survival.
analysis, indeed, but for purposes of matching up linguistics
and events as they arrive real-time, a kind of
mental shorthand is needed. you know, an analogy that's
simple, compact, & portable.
The big picture is
that Iran is off on its own self-interests while Israel has its
set. The two are set to collide.
How the collision
will occur is almost analogous to the 'crumple zones' in an
automobile. The 5 MPH bumper will be the first part of the
car sacrificed...that'd be the initial attack on the Iranian
Next to go will be
an overwhelming response within the proximity of Iran by its
naval forces liberally
equipped with SS-N-22 Sunburn missiles.
What I don't tell my
experienced gamer(s) up front is that in the linguistics we have
the loss of at least one US aircraft carrier (and other surface
assets) in long-ago modelspace in the ALTA reports.
Revealing this to the 'gamer' might color his vision, and
besides, we hope that stuff is all wrong. Still, it
lingers in a way that makes it being a processing artifact
extremely unlikely, so time monks walk around depressed about
the prospect of a carrier sinking as one 'read' of the future
costing 6,000 lives as a whack....
With the 5 MPH
bumper gone and the impact zone extending aft toward the
passenger cabin, we can envision multiple rounds of shuttle
diplomacy trying to defuse further escalation, but likely for
naught. The Muslim states would be likely respond with
some type of oil embargo, which would then cause the US to
consider the "restrictions on travel" which have also been in
the linguistics for a number of years - a worrisome fact
in itself because in general, the larger the lead-time with a
linguistic shift, the larger the headlines seem to be upon
arrival in real-time.
I don't suppose we
need to discuss the possible impacts of having a female
Secretary of State in the possible crisis? Yes, all for
women's rights, personally, yada, yada, yada...but the
reality on the ground in the M.E. is that the flashpoint
groups, especially the more extreme Muslim states have
little-to-no regard for women, as
evidenced by the murder of Benazir Bhutto.
As the sheet metal
crumples even further aft, events compound for the US with
continuing impacts from the Gulf, which while they may have
remained manageable in "normal times" (given that the Gulf alone
may infer at least a 30% decrease in stock market values as key
Southern production capacity is stripped offline by pollution
effects) the further weight on the President will be the need to
remain 'in control' of the situation; The first job of leaders
is to lead.
decision-making processes outlined clearly if you know where to
look, such as the "Overview
of United States of America's National Security Strategy 2009"
which lays out the pre-Gulf Spill expectation sets, that become
even more oil-dependent with the Gulf going effectively offline.
Was the gulf
disaster a deliberate prelude event? It'll never be known
positively since a negative can't be proven...no point going
there. What is....is.
Thermonuclear War (GTW) is not in the cards for sure this
fall, it's just that the magnitude of the tipping point Nov.
8-12 is about 4½ days, which dwarfs
the 2001 9/11 tipping point which was a matter or only 3-4 hours
of 'tipping'. Moreover, the emotional release
period of 9/11 (wailing the loss of lives) was about a week's
worth; this November release period yields a 'wailing/mourning'
of 2½ and then tapering off.
It's also global in nature,
although it begins in the US and propagates.
Does is have to be GTW?
No. It could be something else; but it would have to be HUGE and
start in the US. Maybe a New Madrid 10.0+ quake, east
coast subsidence, and then rest of world shaking itself to death
would approximate the change state, but Clif's not so sure.
The November tipping
point is an all-entities affair. In modelspace, an event
like crustal shift would likely peek out of the Terra entity
first, then spread. Sorry, this tip doesn't do that.
Oh sure...aliens showing up and blasting cities to smithereens
with death rays as in "War Between the Worlds" would do it, or
so might the Earth swallowing up whole regions with an
outbreak of sink-holes which - are they? - related.
You've seen all the sink-hole stories? Amazing
change-state going on there.
Occam's Razor says the simplest explanation has better odds than
most, so as I go through the headlines, stories like Debka.com
reporting that the "Secret
Israeli emissary fails to cool Turkey's animosity" and the
J-Post headline "Iran:
Sanctions won't stop us" remind me that we're on something
of a clock.
While the Dakota
Voice headlines today "Another
report of Israeli preparations for Iran Strike", recent US
ship sailings including the largest ever joint sub deployment
from the west coast a few weeks back, all point to this summer
being 'break point'; jets and equipment can't be moved up for an
attack and then left indefinitely. There's a logistic and
maintenance clock now running.
Sorry to begin with
such a detailed discussion about something not specifically
economics or Second Depression related (although it is, in
72-point bold), but trying to scalp a few bucks out of day
trading seems sheer folly and a distraction against the bigger
picture - the rock ledge the lemmings are about to run off this
And as though to make
its point, an email popped into my inbox while I was chatting
with Clif about this stuff earlier in the week: "Waiting
until November will be too late. Act now!"
We now return to our
regularly scheduled (and some what less serious) morning report.
We'll advise you where to tune for news and official information
when it all shows up.
Hopefully, we'll be
How Go Markets?
Futures are down this morning, and since this is the
beginning of Q3, there are plenty of reasons to expect there to
be low prices for a few more days. Big players jam down
everything after unloading them a week or two before the end of
quarter which is why the decline, got it?
Now what happens is
the Big Boyz will force things down for another day or two, and
then jam them up...so I am looking for a low in the next
week-two Maybe around the 12th? Then a rally 'round kind
of thng. Wars are good for the economy, eh?
I could draw
how I expect stocks and metals to do as an overlay on Clif's
chart, but that'd only be about money and that game is over,
plus or minus a few months.
Laughable to think in
terms of rich in a radioactive world, isn't it?
and auto sales in the session today may provide a push this way
- or that.
I think you and
Cliff had a clear hit with your June 28th date forecasting
a, "market shaking quaking event." I say this because only
one day later, June 29th, the market dropped 266 points and
today June 30th, it dropped another 96 points. I will plan
the rest of my year accordingly.
Think that was fun?
Wait for the next couple of weeks....
unemployment numbers just out:
the week ending June 26, the advance figure for
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 472,000, an increase
of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of
459,000. The 4-week moving average was 466,500, an increase
of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of
The advance seasonally adjusted
insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week
ending June 19, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate
of 3.6 percent.
The advance number for
seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week
ending June 19 was 4,616,000, an increase of 43,000 from the
preceding week's revised level of 4,573,000. The 4-week
moving average was 4,567,500, a decrease of 25,250 from the
preceding week's revised average of 4,592,750.
The fiscal year-to-date average
of seasonally adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which
corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 5.077
Great read over at Raw
Story about how
"MSNBC's Ratigan: Stock market an 'obviously corrupt' fraud."
Had a great
conversation with my friend Howard Hill on this very point
yesterday while I work on a gravity monopole detector as a
vector for a new black box trading tool. Howard figures
that there is so much frontrunning going on, that even if I
could get a 75% correct call rate out of a black box, it would
likely be spied after 20-30 trades. Seems all the
frontrunning programs are set up with pattern recognition so
that anyone who comes into the casino of Wall St. with a real
winning system (like card counting, eh?) is found out about by
The House and the house then frontruns the trades - or makes one
go deliberately south in order to spoil the new black box.
Just so's you know,
apparently the frontrunning systems (according to rumor) won't
hit until after some number of successful trades...so run your
The Federal Reserve
"..Made taxpayers unwitting Junk-Bond Byers" says a
"Read the prospectus
before investing" apparently doesn't apply to the know-it-alls
in Washington, which might go some distance to explaining why
we're in crap-soup as a nation.
The headline that in
Oregon, the "Portland
Police reopen Al Gore sex abuse allegations" might explain
Tipper split, huh?
Speaking of Divorce
You see the
Tiger Woods settlement reports?
Whale of a Tale
monster whale-munching whale has been identified. But
only 17-meters? Wonder if it's related to the smaller killer
I couldn't help but
think while reading the report that a "Doctor
testing dangerous drug to 'prevent' lesbianism" that the
medical types involved in this don't understand that a wide
range of sexual preferences is a business model.
How so? think
about it: In an old-fashion hetero world you've got only
one product line to sell. Male/Female products.
But, thanks to
marketing of multiple preferences, you now have male/male
marketing, female/female products and marketing, and old-style
male/female marketing. See the magic? One market
becomes three, or if you toss in trannies on both sides, maybe
So come on! Get
with it! Sexual orientation is a business model!!!
Why ever would you think it otherwise?
==== snip and save
Say, here's a reader
note with explaining:
US postal worker retires in California at age 95 without
taking a single sick day. It's a feat he attributes to a
healthy diet of watermelon, alkaline water and an onion
sandwich every day. If you check Alkaline and Acid Foods
Chart you can see that watermelon and onion also in alkaline
If it's possible for him...it's
possible for everyone...
Let me explain how
he did it: Eat enough onions and no one will come within
10-feet of you. No human contact means no sickness.
With my red car gone,
and looking at airplanes, several people have sent me reports on
new 'flying car' that's making the rounds.
Unfortunately, it's a
two-seater and about $100K over my budget, but otherwise
Collect Numeric IP
Reader sends this:
I am an Armed
Forces veteran whose decision NOT to re-enlist in the
military was influenced heavily by the way our future
appears, at least to those of us who have chosen to crawl
out from under the rug that TPTB have smothered us with. Me,
my wife and close friends are daily readers of Urban
Survival. I really believe that more and more people are
opening thier eyes all the time. Anyway, the reason that I
am emailing you for the first time is this..... With the new
"Kill Switch" that the masters have decided to use as a
means of censorship in the days/weeks/months to come, how
are we 15%'ers supposed to get access to truth? Aside from
AM radio shows like Coast to Coast AM, and others like it,
there isn't a media outlet that I know of that isn't going
to feed me a wheelbarrow full of shit. Since the time that I
decided to look at things for how they really are, it has
become pretty easy to spot propaganda and influence by the
MSM. As a matter of fact, I read MSM now as a comical thing
to see what MSM is getting the masses to buy into. With that
being said, I know you're a busy guy and I would really
appreciate your insight on what we should do when the hit
the switch on the internet.
Well, should be
obvious that we're NOT supposed to know any large Truths -
that'd make us...well...equals...and despite all the talk about
equality in the world today, real equality comes from equal
access to information.
So to be an elite you
just need better information, which is why the linguistics
project is such a thorn, but the readership has been small...
So start to collect
numeric IP addresses and set up all your favorite sites as
numbers - no verbose/spelled out addresses. That's a way
better start than most people will have...
Sorry for the short
coping section, real work in the first part of today's report.
Time for more coffee now... TTFN
Wednesday June 30,
The D Word Gets
Although I've been
writing here about Depression 2.0 rolling out since 1997, or so,
it's been interesting to see how as the evidence mounts that
this won't be a double-dipper, but more a dip & crash affair,
how the term "Depression" is starting to sneak its way into the
unemployment, lower stocks and growing worries. Is this
1930 all over again?" wonders a Tech Ticker/Yahoo headline.
Uh...you mean like
what's been our masthead (top of page) for a half dozen years
kinda thing? Why, who'da thought?
market action should pop up a fair bit just based on
all the green lights coming out of Europe already today.
So far though, they are mixed.
When we see big
declines like yesterday's little nosebleed, it's not uncommon
for there to be a bounce anywhere from about 33% all the way up
to 70%, which has me wondering if I should blow out of all short
positions in the preopen market - and I may (or may NOT) be out
of shorts by the time you get around to reading this.
(Since THIS IS NOT STOCK MARKET OR FINANCIAL ADVICE - just
ramblings of a trader, no harm, no foul.)
Hand me a dart,
One reason (or at
least it may be called a reason by some) is that the US Housing
picture actually improved a bit in the latest Case-Shiller/S&P
Housing report out Tuesday:
Data through April 2010, released today by Standard &
Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the
leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that annual growth
rates of all 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites
improved in April compared to March 2010. The 10-City
Composite is up 4.6% from where it was in April 2009, and
the 20-City Composite is up 3.8% versus the same time last
year. In addition, 18 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites saw
improvement in prices as measured by April versus March
I happen to think this
report is 'golden' - damn fine work and about the only caveat to
keep in mind is that it reflects conditions in April and
we're within spitting distance of July now.
Where the housing data
turns into a roulette wheel is when you consider that it clearly
documents the first dip but since the rise in housing YoY
hasn't rolled over yet, it doesn't point to any second dip.
Give it time.
Later on today,
there's a purchasing manager's report which may give a little
better sense of what's ahead, but even more oughta become
evident when the Construction spending coming out tomorrow along
with car and truck sales.
Friday will be the
'biggie' though, with employment, nonfarm payrolls, hourly
earning, average workweek, and factory orders all landing.
Cash? Gold? Or what?
A reader wants to know what happened to the lingustic forecast
of a major change in gold but more particularly silver
behavior that was forecast for the 28th?
"Searching hard for the,
"markets shaking quaking event", of June 28th, as well as
the "flood" to precious metals and the "floating away", of
silver from gold.
What I see in the press is
language has appeared that the 25 year bull market is truly
dead. Seems to be coming from Europe. Kind of a mouse fart
if that's the shift - not that it might not gather steam.
Have you seen anything I'm
missing? Can you discuss in Urban Survival today?
On the other hand, diaspora from
the Gulf is gaining traction every day. Heating up
appreciably hour by hour."
I haven't seen much movement, either and I've been looking.
Still, a couple of thoughts: The linguistics do get
things wrong - it's not a perfect system and more often than
not they are off by a day or three. I'll just keep
Tuesday it became apparent to me why I have been following what
I figure to be a reasonable mix of assets: part gold and silver
(half a dozen coins and a gun to protect 'em) and a
TreasuryDirect account with some dollars in it (protected by a
halfwit congressman and a couple of useless senators, but only
until November elections, I hope).
So one of my friends
calls up Tuesday and says "George, is it time to sell my gold
yet?" We chat, I waffle.
30-minutes later, a
different friend calls up: "George, I just bought a little
gold - should I buy more?" We chat, I waffle some more.
I've thought about
emailing them each other's phone numbers, though...it would sure
reduce my workload. When the change in gold/silver
direction becomes apparent, I'll move as necessary.
Month-end gold and silver prices have always been a little
dodge-headed (to use a cowboy term).
Couple of other things
- gold related... Remember that idea about strapping a gold coin
on your wrist in lieu of an overpriced wristwatch?
Sorry George but,
Corum SA beat you to your gold coin wrist idea back in 1964.
Scroll down in the article to see a pic (hover over pic to
make larger) of the $20 double eagle wrist watch. I guess
Corum thought you could watch your time and your money.
And my commodity
broker JB was a little more direct...
"I have suggested
(for years now) that all my clients dress down and stop
driving the Benz, Beamers. Rolls or wealth cars. To buy
classy (but not overbearing) American cars that do not draw
attention to a person’s wealth. Having a gold bar on your
wrist is a “Rob Me” sign regardless of wearing a gun. Now is
not the time to risk the robbery or the kidnapping. Stay in
the woods with this idea G…..
OK, bad idea. How
about Derringer earrings? Next!
Hurricane Hunters &
Although we have our
'survival platform' in East Texas fore sale (brochure),
it's nowhere near certain that Elaine and I will actually
move to the Pacific Northwest. Despite summers being a
more humid version of hell, the other three seasons of East
Texas (too windy, too cold, and too rainy) are passable, except
during hunting season when things usually take a turn for the
Several people thought
- when I first mentioned this a few weeks back - thought we
sounded desperate about moving; we're not. I have been
dutifully checking our GPS position every day and, near as I can
figure, the GPS reassures me that my office is still
within 2DRMS error of where it was when the oil spilled 500+
On the other hand, the
first hurricane of the season, Alex, is about to make landfall
on the Mexican mainland south of the Rio Grand Valley (RGV).
If you happen to own a kite shop in Corpus Christi, this could
be a godsend.
If you happen to be
planning some Saturday lake sailing on Mexico's lakes in the
Lake/ Presa Marte R. Gomez) you have just time to order Lin
Pardey's Storm Tactics Handbook: Modern Methods of Heaving-to for Survival in Extreme Conditions, 3rd Edition
from Amazon and get it overnighted before setting out on any
planned Saturday worm-drowning adventure south of the border.
If you're wondering
why the storm is not coming more up into Texas, the answer
is simple: The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Associate has a
webinar today called "Thunderstorms and ATC" which I'm sure
helped frighten Alex away.
If Elaine and I
don't sell our homestead/goat ranch/ survival platform,
we'll probably get an airplane (which explains why I'm doing
webinars on severe weather flying, and such). Still
undecided is the Big Question of whether staying here with a
small four-place bug-out flying machine is best, or selling here
and going back to the PNW with maybe getting another 40-50 foot
sailboat bug-out option is a really hard choice. I refuse to
give in to the clothes and shoe barge requirement that
goes with any boaty plan discussion.
But then again,
marinas just rent 'holes in the water' with three cleats to
which mooring lines are attached and a plug-in for boat power,
which is also a racket...so these are things we think about for
hours on end, or at least till cocktail hour's long over
the horizon and dinner ends up being at 9 PM...
Terra - Not So Firma
At leasta in Oaxaca where they had a 6.2 overnight.
Location is south of Acapulco a ways but makes me wonder about
what this will mean up the fault line to the north...you know,
up past Puerto Vallarta and up in the Sea of Cortez....
Mexico - A
I was remarking
yesterday on the murder of a Mexican regional governor this week
and asked our Mexico correspondent "Is it entirely wrong of
someone in the US to get the feeling that Mexico is descending
into third-world drugvolution?" His answer?
looking very bad, indeed. But aside from the shocking murder
yesterday, of a gubernatorial candidate for the PRI in the
coming elections, I'd like to step back and look at the big
has been attempting to put problems in the way of a huge
business - let's call it "the market". Because the market it
is, and it is the American market for drugs. It's enormous.
This true market has been declared illegal and yet it is
enormous and flourishing in the US.
The thrust has
been, to stop supply from reaching the American market, by
attacking the suppliers, who are Mexicans and by the present
definition, criminals. Once a certain group of people are
defined as criminals, it is quite easy for these people to
branch out into other areas of criminality. So we have a
burgeoning criminal class now harassing the population: they
are taking over any business that appeals to them - ranches
Bloomberg today, has a long article on the subject of
American banks moving huge sums of drug money back into
dollar accounts, money sent to accounts in American banks
- Wachovia is mentioned prominently, among others.
Mexico, we do not see any reports of Drug Cartels in the US.
George: Do you
really think there are not one or more American Drug Cartels
distributing these huge quantities of drugs to the American
Why is Mexico
supposed to be the problem? Mexico is a supplier, but if
there is a supplier there must be a purchaser, and the
purchaser or purchasers must be organizations in the US. Why
must the burden be placed on Mexico?
The fact is,
there is a vast market for drugs in the US. Bloomberg
mentions up to $29 billion dollars coming
into Mexico in the form of cash, every year.
Let's face it,
the American market is so huge and so important to the
Mexican economy, supply simply cannot be suppressed.
Mexico will be
addressing this problem, I hear, after a
new President is installed in 2012. Calderon has
been an unmitigated disaster.
will then come to terms with the Drug Cartels and a
settlement will be reached. The killing that is going on is
mainly for control of territory by the Cartels, which are
fighting each other to the death. With a government
settlement, the drug war will be over. It is not the
criminalized drug cartels that will have won: it is
the market that has won and whose victory must be
personal opinion, for what it is worth - and dangerous to
express, no doubt.
There's a grand
historical rhyme going on between Prohibition in the US (which
ran from 1919 to 1933 when the Volstead Act was passed allowing
some booze to be made again) and the modern, if not
misnamed, "War on Drugs".
We could argue about
the level at which anti-drug policy has been played as being
different - and whether the starting date of 'the war' was
1973's formation of the DEA, or was really when it became a
cabinet-level effort in 1993 under Bill Clinton is not the
Only that it rhymes
and when a real Depression is underway, decriminalization of
drug (or booze) is allowed by government for two reasons:
It placates the people and it cuts costs of government. No
doubt in my mind that in a few short years as deficit reduction
plans go up in smoke, a different kind of smoke will become less
illegal and thus the financial clout of drug cartels - on both
sides of the border - will be eliminated.
But for now, it's a
dance on both sides of the border and as our correspondent
points out, the market is presently winning despite the
press releases and hype.
==== snip and save
Newsing and Speaking of Speaking
A number of items have
been piling up on the 'news hook' under the general term
I suppose, though,
that an explanation of the words "new hook" might be of
interest, too, since I can almost hear shoulders shrugging as I
News hooks once upon a
time in the days of real (e.g. non corpgov news) were real.
Folks like me would go into a newsroom with multiple teletype
services (at least the AP and UPI wires and for folks
with big budgets maybe a newspaper 'A' wire and a sports wire,
too) and they would tear stories off the wire service and hang
them on various news 'hooks' which were oftentimes just 16-penny
nails smashed into a piece of 1-by-4 which was convenient to the
This was back in the
day when the AP and UPI news was distributed on a leased
telephone line and the printers were the old Model 20's.
Here's a sample video of one of the old machines running.
As you watch the
video, realize that the clear plastic cover of the Model 20
flipped open and stood back from the front at about a 45º
angle and the top edge of the plastic was sharp.
After a while, a junior newsman, or
copy editor in a paper, would get pretty adept at ripping the
copy nice and straight and that's where the term "rip & read"
news came from; newscaster like yours truly who might come to
work early Saturday morning and instead of doing a 100% rewrite
of a story, we'd simply 'rip & read' the first several hours
until the aspirin and coffee kicked in.
The Model 20's were a
great inspiration, too, since in most radio newsrooms the
teletype(s) were located close to the newsroom and the sound of
the machines in the background was a real part of the
newsgathering 'feel'. Not only did they add a certain
'feel' to the newsroom with their distinctive cross between
heavy grease and
smell and the black ribbons with white paper (AP) or blue
ribbons (UPI) and yellow paper, but they served as a kind of
metronome for when the coffee eventually kicked in - give young
up and coming news reporters a 'metronome' to write against.
So if I can seemingly
crank out tons of original copy early in the morning, it's less
a credit to any skill, so much as a deep-seat personal
competition to turn out as much usable copy in an hour as the
teletype next door.
provides amazing sync-winks that aren't apparent at the
time...in fact you might not even 'get 'em' until in this case
about 40-years later.
This tale begins in
about late 1972 when I was news director using the air name
"George Garrett" (following Ken Matler, who followed BR Bradbury
in the job) and doing morning news at KOL in Seattle at the time
we had just received our first IBM Selectric...which was really
cool because at last I could outdo the Model 20. On this
particular morning, I remember turning on the Selectric only to
hear some odd noises and the machine wouldn't type.
Opening it up, I
discovered that a mouse had overnight crawled into the machine
and made itself comfortable. KOL at that time was down on
Harbor Island (which
friend & famous author Burl Barer writes about here) nestled
among the Port of Seattle containership operation which was
booming at the time. No shortage of mice.
Everyone in the
station got a good laugh out of it - even got a mention in
Emmett Watson's columns back in the day. He was the
Seattle answer to the
SF Chronicle's Herb Caen...and was an early promoter of
Seattle's quality of life movement, founding
Seattle" in answer to the business community's promotion of
the northwest via a promotional group called "Greater
All of which gets a
long way from the now appreciated sync-wink Universe, which gets
to what point?
I was really one of
the first people on the planet to have 'mouse in the newsroom' -
it wouldn't be until the mid 1980's that mice became even
someone common at the editor's desk.
As usual, I was way
ahead of time...again....and in a way that profited me not a
bit. Universe and I have that sort of relationship, I
On a more practical
note, I was a guest recently on an internet radio show called
Opinion" with Dr. Ron Klatz...and I forgot to mention it.
But no worries - you can hear the interview here as an audio
Coming up this evening
I'm scheduled to chat about this and that (more'n likely oil
dislocations and the currently evolving economic Depression and
how to turn those lemons into lemonade)
with Devvy Kidd, who's got a
long history of newsing and Constitution supporting; not
particularly blessed pursuits in the eyes lately of what I call
corpgov, which seems to have a little more hemmed-in
version of what freedom is.
To go with your
coffee: A delightful nugget to ponder, this quote dropped
on me by a friend in amongst yesterday's emails:
is unobstructed action according to our will within limits
drawn around us by the equal rights of others. I do not add
'within the limits of the law' because law is often but the
tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the rights of
Jefferson, third US President, architect and author
Yep, that Jeffersonian
view of freedom still rings true, at least with a few of us,
though the numbers seem to be dwindling. Traded away for
'special privileges' which more often than not translates to
'some are more equal than others.'
Just Send Money
Again today, my inbox
is flooded with the usual junk emails, which gets me around to
my first project every day. I collect emails with heading
like this one which says "Save up to $100" with XYZ's Fourth of
Then I send out a handful
of apologetic notes that read "Dear XYZ, due to the economy, I
am unable to buy any products at this time. However, if
you wouldn't mind terribly, please send me that $100 I saved as
I could sure use it now..."
I go out to the
mailbox every day...hoping....
Wednesday at the
(The WuJo for the
newbies is where science and woo woo duke it out on the matte
Those 8s that people
are putting in their wallets continue generating stories of
uncommon financial events shortly thereafter:
"You have a great web site and I
read it everyday. [He
may have me confused with Matt Drudge's place, or Wikileaks,
but don't point this out to him - G]
Based on info from your site I
put the number 8s in the form of a triangle on paper and put
it in my wallet last week. Yesterday my wife called and said
she had a low tire. I told her to go to ***mart and get a
new tire as it need replacement. I told her which brand to
get to match a tire we just replaced. After three hours she
paid them and went to the car and found they had put the
wrong brand of tire on (much more expensive). She went back
in and said "make it right". After another hour they finally
got it right and they refunded the original purchase and
said "No charge" for the new one.
Other than a few hours of her
time it saved over a 'C' note. Did the 8's help? I don't
know, but I have never had that happen before.
We'll take this as an
Bentonville, AR's economy is way better than the rest of
Tuesday June 29, 2010
Crash Window - Day
Day trader barf bags
at the ready? This oughta be a screaming "Downside Dandy"
today. In case you're a bit slow on the uptake, the
markets are down about 2 - 2½
percent in the preopen
to the US markets, which means that the Dow and other major
indices could easily shave off, oh, about 200-300 points for the
day when the carnage is done later on.
A number of things
seem to be driving this. As you may be aware, oil which
has been up a bit on hurricane jitters
has come down under $77 which is what? Deflationary.
Then there is the
Japan which reported that its economic recovery dreams stayed
just that - dreams - in May. Until the US car-buying
mood, or some really hot new electronic whizzies come out, I'm
not holding my breath. I don't think you should either,
since personal electronics is almost to Star Trek tricorder
levels now, anyway. Pick the aps, download them for your
personal lifestyle, and there you go.
overly-hyped G8/G20 this past weekend didn't pass a bank tax,
which would have resulted in banks having another teat to
suckle, w8ild-eyerd speculation on the banking sector being the
new "financial answer to utility stocks of the 1930's
Depression" have just gone 'poof'...which is really what the
noise will be as trading continues to the downside this week.
You are permitted
not to notice, though, since the real noise will be coming from
the pits where there oughta be much gnashing of teeth and blood
pressure problems to be entertained with. Double up the
meds day, for sure.
To help you remember
the NYSE/Euronext has a circuit breaker page that you oughta
have bookmarked, since the downside action might accelerate
later in the week. Might even want to print this out from
their website and put it in your wallet/purse for the next few
weeks since we might actually need to refer to it:
Since Robin Landry
has a downside target of anywhere from 8,600 down to 8,300 for
this move, before we rally back to the 9,500 range (and NO this
is NOT trading advice...just what some of us smarter than the
averages bears are doing), this oughta be just a fine day of
I'd be watching the
market really close around 9 AM Eastern (1/2 hour into today's
trading) since that's when the Case Shiller/ S&P 20-city real
estate numbers come out. Potential market mover. And
an hour after that CONsumer CONfidence is due.
Boy, I love being short in this kind of markets. Yee haw!
Remember the old
Johnny Rivers' song "Secret Agent Man"? Think there was
even a TV show by that name for a while, but going that far back
into the memory vault hurts at this hour. Instead, be
entertained with the report in the
NY Times about the bust of 10 people as suspected Russian spies.
Why is this
important? Why now? Well, with the Russians
having an interest in what goes on along their southern (Muslim
leaning) tier (places like Georgia, Abkhazia, etc come to mind)
the timing means something since the US and Israel reportedly
are put outposts into Azerbaijan to facilitate hitting Iran
later this year. Think of this as a little rap on Moscow's
Wonder if Obama and
Medvedev will tweet this one out in public? LOL, just
kidding. (Wonder if Apple had given them red iPhones?)
Hell, old as I am, I
can't remember back to 1946...and maybe you can't either.
So a refresher from Wikipedia is in order.
"Sherman, set the
way-back machine to
1946...we're off to see Ethel Merman in Annie Get Your Gun".
we're not going to get into the
Peabody & Sherman scandal again! This was just a cheap
writer's transition to bring up the topic of guns.
Which - as this
horrible exercise in 8th grade level writing continues-
saw the US Supreme Court come out strongly in favor of in a
Monday decision and which is likely to result in a
flood of lawsuits in gun-control states like New Jersey.
I'd continue this
scatter-gun of concepts, but by now, you're probably wondering
if someone has taken leave of their senses. Surprised
All So Senseless
Mexico saw a brutal assassination of a regional governor
Been a while since I
have heard from my friend & correspondent in Mexico City, but
one of the questions I ought to ask him is "Is it entirely wrong
of someone in the US to get the feeling that Mexico is
descending into third-world drugvolution?"
Not too much of a
surprise in this, but
BP had apparently staked its future on offshore deepwater
drilling according to inside documents summarized in the UK
While we're on
Diaspora watch, which is probable later on this year as the
spill impacts widen out,
Steve Quayle spied this story about
foreign troops doing training up in Tennessee and sent it along.
I think it's fair to
say that Steve and I are both wondering how many foreign troops
there are in the US at any one time, especially how many might
be used for domestic [whatevering] when evacuations around the
Gulf become obvious/necessary this fall due to pollution
these, but the MSM (MainStreamMedia) will probably keep dancing
around the hard questions. Must not be much money in
truth-telling, huh? Defend the paradigm because that's
where the profits are - I see the logic, alright...so fine,
whatever. Not everyone is an idiot.
"Where's My Change?"
Apparently, you and
I may not be the only people wondering if the present occupant
of the WH is a short-change artist.
Both houses of Congress are planning to debate the war(s)....
you know, the one(s) that we were promised would be over?
informative article from the
phenomena of "Mass Mingling". Dangerous stuff this:
People meeting people...talking real life stuff. You know
this has to scare the crap out of the PowersThatBe.
pre-revolution France come to mind? I think of this as
"The masses starting to mass" part of global consciousness
/ Million Dollar Idea
There are times, I
think to myself "Self? You know people do the damndest
Take for example the
report today that "Israeli
diplomats sport jeans, sandals in wage protest..."
While it's an
interesting story to read, it strikes me as one of those huge
paradigm defender telltales/revelations. Grand lesson
in perception management come from this story...
The way I figure it is
this: The people I know from my software days, most of
whom still wear jeans, sandals (and drank coke, ate Twinkies and
such) were really very comfortable and made more money than most
people can imagine.
Most of these silicon
forest /silicon beach denizens don't wear more than sweatshirts
and jeans even in the finest restaurants...they don't have
to...even now. For all I could testify, the folks I know
Amex black cards may not even own ties...at least I've never
seen any of 'em wearing one.
So how is it that
people still wear 'suits'? Apparently, clothing is an
important statement of 'royalty' in today's diplomatic world.
Which shows you how out of touch diplomats (in general) are with
global humans. Most of us wear jeans and a golf shirt,
sneakers or Hush Puppies and we're very damn comfortable, thank
All of which gets me
to a whole new fashion statement I may try out: I'm
thinking about taking a 1-ounce gold Maple, putting a strap on
it, and wearing it like a watch.
Why? Well, one
of the great benefits of becoming truly independent
is being able to ignore time. But, since people put
watches costing thousands on their wrists in order to impress
other people, I got to thinking, why not just strap on an ounce
of gold and call it good?
When someone asks (as
they invariably will, seeing an ounce gold coin on the wrist)
"What times is it?" I'll be able to look back and say
quite honestly "I don't know...nor do I care..."
About here I expect
they'd say something like "Isn't that a wristwatch?"
"No, that's a .999
fine Gold Maple leaf. I don't watch clocks. I t
reminds me to watch my money. I wear so I can point out to the
Rolex types that they're on the clock. I'm not."
Why this isn't a
fashion astounds me. Dressing down diplomats seems like a
good thing, too.
==== snip and save
Tuesday at the WuJo
Several times in the
past I've written to you about incredibly vivid dreams I
sometimes have. One of them, if you flip back to the
edition of this column under the headline "Irwin Allen's Dreams"
I told you about a strange but incredibly vivid dream
I had the night before the Gulf oil disaster. If
you missed the column, here's what I wrote about the dream:
"movie" involved a witness to something - some ill doings -
in a warehouse which served the (offshore) oil services
industry. A cook who worked on a farthest out oil platform
on a formation the industry called "The Wall" was involved
and the warehouse was set ablaze to cover a murder. What was
so interesting was that the two perps used two sources of
ignition. One was a syrupy kind of adhesive (semi-clear
--construction adhesive?) and then they went back and
splashed something like gasoline (or other clear volatile)
on top of it. "
Of course, about
18-hours later the events down in the Gulf happened and I've
wondered ever since about the proximity of this dream to events
that happened 18-hours later - the explosion and fire on the BP
rig that will eventually lead to Diaspora. Locals down
around Houma call the spill site "the Wall" for all the rigs
visible on radar to captains of workboats.
So on background, the
first thing about these vivid dreams is they are so lifelike
that they have an almost syrupy/fluid-motion to them that is so
smooth that it's almost like this reality. Several times
when I was young, I 'touched' this syrupy stuff that seems to be
the boundary layer between realities - when very ill with
childhood asthma. Hard to describe it, but with just the right
thinking, focus, and lack of fear (it's very scary this boundary
stuff, down at a core of being level), there's this almost
velvety-nature of things at the transition layer between
realities...through the velvety-syrupy stuff there are other
worlds, but I digress.
This morning my dream
was from the perspective of a person who is in some kind of
cleaning, project management role in a seaport town.
Wasn't a terribly big place, but there was construction of
a new building going on next to some kind of a warehouse that
was involved in some kind of parts storage for industry.
There were boxes and boxes of bears and other parts for
equipment. Much of it was lined up in what I took to be
east-west rows, there was a back door to the place through which
I'd entered (northwest corner of the building) and there was a
locked front office door to the east.
I mention all of this
because *I started to note specific locations in the dream as
best I could and was searching around for names and the only one
that came in the location was "Vdniw" something.
I was shortly engaged
in a conversation with a rumpled black-pinstripe suit-wearing
man of medium age, who was just coming back from lunch (which is
why the front doors of the place (older-style wood with glass
inset double doors and a rough wood floor) and I was inquiring
after his health/stress levels.
Was not quite sure why
he was so stressed, but as he took off his coat to go into his
[messy] office in what would be the southeast corner of the
building, he expressed an incredible amount of gratitude that I
was asking about his health since he was very stress by
local-goings on and about the status of new construction nearby
and what was ahead for the future of his business.
About here my alarm
clock went off...and it was time to get up, throw back some
coffee and get out to the office and start to checking on
markets and such.
But not without
looking for "Vdniw" something. Closest place that seemed
to fit was (don't laugh) the coast of Bulgaria.
Microsoft Streets & Trips got to a region/province of Vidin in
Bulgaria. Obviously, that wasn't right, so I pulled
up some pictures of Varna, Bulgaria only to find that the "feel"
of the town in my dreams was very similar to the right side of
this picture; on a bay or inlet, a rocky shore, not sandy,
somewhat protected, and so forth.
Had the impression it
was a partly cloudy day, too. That seemed to fit well with
forecast today for that part of Bulgaria...
And that it was
lunchtime but because of local custom, lunch was early and the
businessman/warehouse manager fellow was coming back about 12:45
PM (local time) in the dream. Which is odd, because that
happens to be exactly when I was having this dream inb
Bulgarian time, before the alarm clock went off in East
Had my mind somehow
clicked in on the perceptions of a young man (late 20's or so)
working in Bulgaria? Much different way of life was
touched - a higher level of feelings and less on numbers
and Western thinking, too.
Along about here
you're probably wonder "Why are you going into all this?"
Well, it gets me on to
a new project that I'd never given much thought to:
Mapping out these little 'snips of places' that pop out of
dreams every so often.
From what I saw in the
dream, I could draw at least a rough map of the place...a
general map of what the water/land boundary looked like as well
as a picture of what the construction and warehouse were.
I then got to thinking
about other 'dream locations' I'd had in the past and decided
when I get some time to start making some sketches of what the
landscape has been like in many of my vivid dreams. The
reason? Well, there has been a wide variety of cities,
topographies, and so forth that have accompanied dreams of
helping people flee from evil, being around when great
earthquakes were starting, or, in more common dreams, just
chatting with a warehouse manager in what seemed like a Black
I probably should post
this over at the
National Dream Center, too. If you ever have a vivid dream,
feel free to post it there because every so often we get some
really remarkably coincident dreams which may, or may
not, have prophetic value.
When I say remarkable,
I mean like when a woman in Maryland has an almost identical
dream as a man in Massachusetts, and such. Some day we
oughta talk about that one, but not yet. Maybe September.
Main thing to suggest
this morning is that you might consider in addition to a 'dream
journal' keeping maps of those internal lands. Don't know
where they come from, but they are vastly different than just
'noise' generated by random thoughts. The internal lands
seem to have a whole different layout, but they are internally
consistent -- in other words not weird/hallucinogenic
qualities - they have a hardness or permanence about them.
I keep coming back to
the premise of the novel "Dimension Barrier" that I'm working
on, the general plot of which is that as we get closed to 2012,
an increasing number of people start to have very vivid dreams
and at the exact crossing of the galactic plane, people are able
to pick "one side or the other" of the mirror (between two
realities) to stay on.
The mapping process
might be a useful tool, both for exploration of internal lands,
or perhaps to be used as a guidebook given hints as to which
alternate reality the mind has decided to enter.
Just as Louis
L'Amour's "The Haunted Mesa" looked into other worlds of
Southwest Indian lore, perhaps 2012 will bring us smack-dab in
the face of the
'real-time' version of living the Everett's Many Worlds
Interpretation of physics. Perhaps some portion of
humans will be able to transcend the boundaries to other
realities for a time...
Consider, if you will,
time-stacked realities, where in one reality, people are living
similar lives to ours, yet they are 'offset' by some period.
In the case of the "Irwin Allen's Dream" story, with significant
precognitive content from an oil-related warehouse/murder/fire,
the offset was 16-18 hours before the event in this
However, in this
morning's vivid dream in Black Sea kind of port place (not a
very big town, BTW, the town was maybe only a few thousand
people in size) the dream timeline offset seems to have been in
the 10-30 minute range.
The MWI and 2012?
Certainly might be useful to have a pocket map of the different
realms and temporal offsets, thus the map sketches.
See you in
Varna for dinner?
Has me thinking I should pay particular attention to what
happens in Bulgaria over the next couple of days, too...
The Dream States
Also, speaking of the
WuJo (where science meets woo woo stuff for pondering and
combat), this note from a reader is related:
Hawkins. One of the things he touches on is the whole matter
which might be described as 'body knows, even if conscious
mind does not'. And its of the same stripe as the UCLA
research. Apparently the body knows things down at the
preconscious level which aren't able to travel into
consciousness." It appears they are starting down the path
of multidimensionality already well defined in the book Seth
Hmmm...which is why
that velvety-syrupy layer is both challenging and frightening to
Speaking of which, at
a practical level, I tried putting on a trade using kinesiology
techniques outlined by Hawkins work. I was specifically
expecting the market to drop 100-points on Monday, but looks
like my body may not be as good on specific timing, but
judging by the futures and how Europe is doing, later on today,
the "body knows" ought to help my trading account turn over
another significant digit...
Learning point for me
personally? Sure: When using kinesiology for
trading, focus on the date-stamp more because apparently while
the body may have some 'physical knowing' about the future
(direction and magnitude of a move) it has problems with
specific time framing.
This is likely because
the body is a wider-spectrum antenna for time-related
events than the conscious, and thus (to put this in radio
receiver terms), the input questions much be more focused/time
bounded because it's a very wide receiver.
Of course, you already
knew that if you'd read
Dean Radin's paper from July 2000 on time-reversed human
perception, or if you've read any of his recent works
including Entangled Minds: Extrasensory Experiences in a Quantum Reality
The Conscious Universe: The Scientific Truth of Psychic Phenomena.
All of which leads to
the startling conclusion (at least around here) that humans
really can out trade computers. Because
computers and high frequency trading systems are reactive to the
event horizon: They can't compute the future, but with a
lot of self-discipline, humans can.
HF trading my get to
do a flash trade in a couple of milliseconds, but go read Radin
again...humans have up to 6-seconds in a lab setting.
With eTrade's 2-second executions means a human could beat
Slow learnings, for
better than a sharp stick in the eye so far...
Monday June 28, 2010
I oughta begin by
apologizing for being such a grump on this, but with all the
hype, I was expecting the G8 or G20 this weekend to materialize
at least some newly released version of 'the universal free
lunch'. Instead, seems we got little more than a few
burned out police cruisers, more platitudes, undoable promises,
and more of the same-old crap from the international
financial cabal that profits by exploiting wage-rate
differentials around the world.
statement of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper sounded
OK when I read it...
G-8 has been reshaped and reenergized. Its members share
common objectives in the world, and of course, now I look
forward to meeting my colleagues of the G-20 in Toronto.”
But, after some
contemplation I couldn't write down even one (or two) ways that
a nebulous term like "reenergized" presented me with any more
information about the future of international finance than I was
pondering between morning toast and evening toast times on
Friday. No meat to it.
Undeterred, I went
on to read Harper's summary of the G20 which included this
remarkable assertion (if you pop enough
NoDoz to read
agreed to follow through on fiscal stimulus and
communicating “growth friendly” fiscal consolidation plans
in advanced countries that will be implemented going
forward. Sound fiscal finances are essential to sustain
recovery, provide flexibility to respond to new shocks,
ensure the capacity to meet the challenges of aging
populations, and avoid leaving future generations with a
legacy of deficits and debt. The path of adjustment must be
carefully calibrated to sustain the recovery in private
demand. There is a risk that synchronized fiscal adjustment
across several major economies could adversely impact the
recovery. There is also a risk that the failure to implement
consolidation where necessary would undermine confidence and
hamper growth. Reflecting this balance,
have committed to fiscal plans that will at least halve
deficits by 2013 and stabilize or reduce government
debt-to-GDP ratios by 2016. "
That one stopped me
cold: Halve the US budget deficit in just three
years when Obamacare is being rolled out? Are we - the US
public - taken as complete idiots?
I clicked over to
Congressional Budget Office and see how this statistical
sausage would work:
This leaves me
wondering a few things like "How are we going to pay for
healthcare and manage to see an increase in GDP from 2010's
estimated $14,429 trillion pop up to $16,598-trillion - a 15%
increase in three years - with a flat recovery and no sign
of new jobs in meaningful numbers?
Maybe some insight
will come with Friday's Unemployment Rate report. How fast
Census is laying people off may swing that report to negative
which brings me back to asking where's the 15% growth coming
One way the US could
(at least with something of a straight face) promise to cut its
budget deficit in half is to expect that
current plans to make that portion of your healthcare - that's
employer-paid - show up as taxable income in 2011
won't be changed....so you'd pay tax on it with the first
reconciliation due in April 2012. But maybe the voters
will have their say in November to the point where that little
'Gottcha' will be changed. Poof, there would go deficit
A few readers wrote
in that they were appalled by the protesters at the G20 - the
burned out police pictures and such. But wait! As a
report from Global Research points out, the
odds that the crowds were incited by police/agent
provocateurs is very high. You see, by whipping up
crowds, the police get bigger budgets and the general public is
scared away from meaningful protest for fear of official
convenient the cruisers being left in camera view - and I'd love
to see if the cruisers which were damaged were high mileage
units...such would be a dandy investigative piece for a
journalist in Toronto, but don't hold your breath.
Who had checked out - and abandon those vehicles?
The problem with
budget projections and purported agent provocateurs is that they
are share a common mythical twinge. I remember 'active
agents' from the antiwar protest days of the 1970's and I don't
seem to recall budget projections ever coming true.
Yet this morning,
world stock markets seem to be taking the bait happily, as the
MSM decries those who protest, thus obliging the corporate
masters of The Game. It's all about perception
We live in a world
where perception is reality - and to the aware observer,
this weekend didn't offer many incisive new insights into
Are you getting
'aheader or behinder'? The government's latest Personal
Income report has just been released...
Personal income increased $53.7 billion, or 0.4 percent,
and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $49.0
billion, or 0.4 percent, in May, according to the Bureau of
Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
increased $24.4 billion, or 0.2 percent. In April, personal
income increased $59.4 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI
increased $63.7 billion, or 0.6 percent, and PCE increased
$1.4 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, based on revised
Real disposable income increased
0.5 percent in May, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent
in April. Real PCE increased 0.3 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of less than 0.1 percent.
Personal saving -- DPI less
personal outlays -- was $454.3 billion in May, compared with
$427.2 billion in April. Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income was 4.0 percent in May, compared
with 3.8 percent in April.
Time to vape up to
buy this one. Am I the only one to figure out that if 9.7
percent of the workforce is unemployed then to have
personal incomes go up by 0.4% in a month really means the
people still working would have to make even bigger
increases...or do they count surviving workers only?
If you're wondering
how the personal income figures could be this good when foreclosures
were running 322,920 homes in May alone, your guess is as
good as mine.
Climategate/ Oil Spew
There's a good
Newsweek piece if you haven't read it,
"Newspapers retract 'Climategate' claims but Damage Still Done."
Problem here lately
seems to be the larger questions of whether humans are already
past some point-of-no-return with the Gulf Oil Disaster which
might make climate the least of our concerns shortly.
I received the
following this weekend from a commercial airline captain:
Saturday afternoon, just flew from Chicago to Orlando. do
this often. Around 14000" a dark hazy level across the state
(Florida) as far as I could see. Have never seen this
before. There were T-storms north of Orlando that didn't
seem to make any difference. Also, just north of Atlanta,
for a short time at 33000' I smelt oil in the air. I am an
airline pilot and am always in the air."
Storm Alex is missing the oiliest parts of the Gulf but will
likely do some serious watering (if not flooding) of the Rio
Grand Valley by next weekend...
But, of course, this
doesn't stop the oil spewing - and the story out this weekend
from NaturalNews about how "The
Coming Gulf Coast Firestorm: How the BP oil catastrophe
could destroy a major U.S. city" is certainly worth a read.
subscribers got "The Diaspora Handbook Part 2" which covered
specifics of how to get out of harms way. When's a matter
of taste, but early is better than late, I figure...
Not that you'll be able to do much with it, but a report in the
Christian Science Monitor notes that 'hazmat cards' are becoming
the hot ticket. The way I figure it, if you live in
the Gulf, get one soon before the evacuations and you may have a
little more freedom of movement than 'unbranded' sheep.
Happy talk? "Oil
spill's economic damage may not go beyond Gulf" says a
headline. Right.....we'll check on the cod fishing grounds
next spring, shall we? I hear 'one third of the oceans' on
pretty good authority...
Senator Robert Byrd
passed away this weekend. A bit of bio from the Senator's
June 12, 2006, Byrd became the longest serving U.S.
Senator in the history of our Nation and, in November 2006,
he was elected to an unprecedented ninth full term in the
Senate. But it was on November 18, 2009 that Senator Byrd
became the longest serving Member of Congress in the history
of our great Republic, now having served more than 20,775
During his tenure, his
colleagues have elected him to more leadership positions
than any other Senator in history. Currently Byrd is the
President pro tempore, or the second highest ranking
official in the United States Senate and the highest ranking
Senator in the majority party. He serves as the senior
member of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, and
is the Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on
Homeland Security. Byrd also serves on the Senate Budget,
Armed Services, and Rules and Administration Committees.
Throughout his career, Byrd has
cast more than 18,680 roll call votes -- more votes than any
other Senator in American history -- compiling an amazing 97
percent attendance record in his more than five decades of
service in the Senate.
Growing up in Raleigh County,
Byrd not only learned the values that have guided him in his
life, but that is where he also met his life=s love, Erma
Ora James. They both attended Mark Twain High School and
married shortly after graduation in 1937. For nearly 69
years, the Byrds were inseparable, traveling the hills and
hollows of West Virginia and crossing the globe together.
Mrs. Byrd passed away on March 25, 2006 after battling a
Robert Byrd could not afford
college. In fact, his diploma from Marshall University would
have to wait until 60 years after high school, when Senator
Byrd was 77 years old. In between high school and his
undergraduate degree, though, Byrd enrolled in law school
and, after ten years of classes taken while also serving as
a Member of Congress, Senator Byrd earned his law degree
from American University in 1963.
Regardless of your
politics, an amazing contribution to the Country.
Tesla Motors is planning the first IPO for an automaker in
in half a century. PayPal found Elon Musk has most of his
fortune tied up in this one.
I see (now that
we're at a change date today in the inguistics) for silver &
gold that there's a headline that
"Silver in Best Streak since 1980 asd Economy No Hurdle" is
making the rounds.
May take a couple of
days for the directional move to change - if it does - remember
language changes don't always result in price changes.
Just that how people relate to the metals at an emotional level
is now changing in language.
==== Snip and Save
Yes, It's a Depression
When I started
writing this site as a master's capstone in the 1990's, I'd done
a lot of research on Depressions and financial manias, going
back to the Tulip Mania days and following Kondratiev long waves
back to the 1200's in Europe which looked at grain prices and
how they cycled regularly.
When the site began,
even thinking about another Great Depression was terribly
out of vogue.; let alone, doing anything proactively to lessen
its impact on average folks.
It's with a sense of
bitter-sweetness that I notice that the NY Times had a Sunday
by Paul Krugman under the headline "The Third Depression".
Professor Krugman knowing, as all students of depressions do,
that the panic of 1873 and the resulting Long Depression
certainly qualified, as did the 1930's debacle.
Krugman's got it
right, too, when he writes:
"It will probably look more like
the Long Depression than the much more severe Great
Depression. But the cost — to the world economy and, above
all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of
jobs — will nonetheless be immense.
And this third depression will
be primarily a failure of policy. Around the world — most
recently at last weekend’s deeply discouraging G-20 meeting
— governments are obsessing about inflation when the real
threat is deflation, preaching the need for belt-tightening
when the real problem is inadequate spending. "
This is a tough one
for people to understand, but there's spending - and then
there's - spending.
Some spending (like
our Middle East wars) perform some nominal economic function -
pumping up defense stocks and keeping the unemployment rate from
revealing itself where it would really be if all of our
forces were home. Maybe as much as 2% higher unemployment
is not a happy policy problem...so the wars have to stay; at
least that's what I expect experts are muttering well away from
cameras and microphones.
They may be right,
Depressions is a deep malaise in an economy. Not enough
growth, not enough demand, and stagnation of many sorts.
Depressions tend to
happen (interestingly) 8-12 years after major wars.
The 1873 Panic came
following the US Civil War - which while devastating to the
South didn't take much production capacity offline in the North.
The Great Depression
of the 1930's came 11-years after the end of WW I.
Many have suggested
that the Korean War helped the US avoid an economic mess
following the end of WW II, and certainly the Cold War was a
boon to industry.
Even the peak of the
Internet Bubble in the early days of 2000 followed the end of
the Cold War (from the wall coming down in 1989) by 11-years.
Just some things to
think about while we sit waiting for events of November while
the linguistics reports forecast. Not that one should look
forward to such horrors as those to come, but on the bright
side: Maybe they will do what brushfire/perimeter wars
haven't: remove sufficient production capacity to get the
economy rolling again replacing capacity and rebuilding
Some 'bright side',
Farmers, Spacemen &
the Nanny State
Every so often, a
story comes along which leaves me shaking my head. such
was the case last week when a note from the American Farm Bureau
included an interview with a rig farmer who had video's tagged
by YouTube as
"inappropriate for anyone under 18".
You can read about
Not sure why that
is...a guess would be that someone complained...but only a
Still, leaves me
wondering how out of touch people are with the reality of
Or screwing, for
that matter. The story out today is that there's
no screwing allowed on the International Space Station.
Say, this is life changing news, isn't it? Why, I'll
cancel my astronaut application right away!
Maybe in toto these
stories have something to do with
the president being given an 'internet kill switch' by a senate
panel last week. Seems to me graphic pigs and screwing
in space are direct threats to America. Give Obama the
kill switch! not
To see stories like
this gets me to wondering if there's not something lurking in
our future that no one is talking about.
somewhat reassuring that Russia's president and ours can
now follow each other on Twitter, but that doesn't mean that
free-speaking and free-thinking Americans are very near to
losing the free internet.
Ironic stuff to be
weighing this close to the Fourth of July.
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for
'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on
the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in
the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept
several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet
Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely,
it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers
and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as
you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our
charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it
shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with
the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close
replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you
were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929
deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the
truth be told.