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Friday The What?
I suppose you're wondering where triskaidekaphobia (variously spelt) came
from, if you don't already know. That's 'The
Fear of the number 13" which is curious because it's a number that's always
popped up in a strange way in my lift; 13-years on 1300 AM in my news days, just
for example. Oh, and my first newscast was at 13:00 (1 PM) for some of
that time when I was working afternoon drive.
From Wikipedia we
On Friday 13 October 1307, the
Knights Templar were ordered to be arrested by
Philip IV of France. The theory has been suggested, in the book Born
in Blood: The Lost Secrets of Freemasonry by
John J. Robinson, that the Templars went underground among masons in
England and later developed into
Freemasons. Because most of the
founding fathers of the
United States of America were
Freemasons, it is possible the memory of the terror of that day is
preserved in the
Friday the 13th.
Numbers are curiously human creations; neither the goats, nor cats, nor any
wildlife around the ranch here see particularly concerned about the numerical
implications of the failure of derivative notional values to remain notional; an
event which will destroy the world's financial systems are illiquid intangible
financial assets undergo price collapse.
Interestingly, none of the farm animals here seemed particularly concerned with
the Consumer Price Index report out this morning, either. But, since
humans love numbers and financial numerology, here's the deal:
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3
percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. (Before seasonal adjustment, the all items index
was unchanged for the month.) Over the last 12 months, the index increased
1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The energy index posted its first increase since
January and accounted for over two thirds of the seasonally adjusted all
items increase. Both the gasoline and household energy indexes turned up in
July after a series of declines. The food index, in contrast, declined in
July, largely due to the fourth consecutive decline in the fruits and
The index for all items less food and energy
rose 0.1 percent in July after increasing 0.2 percent in June. The indexes
for shelter, apparel, used cars and trucks, and tobacco all continued to
increase in July. In contrast, the indexes for medical care and recreation
turned down in July and the indexes for airline fares and household
furnishings and operations continued to decline. The 12-month change in the
index for all items less food and energy remained at 0.9 percent for the
fourth month in a row.
A few highlight numbers (unadjusted 12 months here): Food overall up
9/10ths of one percent, energy up 8%, fuel oil up 15/1% whiole3 used cars and
trucks were up a whopping 17.0 percent...which really makes sense: What
better way to hide incipient deflation than do the cash for clunkers to
raise this part of the CPI higher than anything else? I should have bought
me a few acres worth of clunkers when I could have. Might have been one of
the great all time investments.
Of course when prices are up only 1.2% before adjustments, and the M1 figure is
up 4½% and
Trader Bart's M3
Reconstructed is still declining at an annual rate of 7% or so, the real pig
in a poke is whether M3 double bottoms - and then if that happens,
whether there will be any life left on earth following...
Then There's Retail
If you thought the Consumer Price numbers were fun, consider the latest retail
sales figures, also out this morning...
Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and
food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday
and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $362.7 billion,
an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 5.5 percent
(±0.5%) above July 2009. Total sales for the May through July 2010 period
were up 5.9 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June
2010 percent change was revised from -0.5 percent (±0.5%)* to - 0.3 percent
Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from June 2010, and 5.9
percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 12.6
percent (±2.5%) from July 2009 and gasoline stations sales were up 12.2
percent (±1.8%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s
full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is
used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose
sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe
of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms
account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an
explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report,
please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this
Why, this is so much fun I can hardly stand it. Wait, here's a picture:
Looks good, UNTIL you remember the auto industry took last year off and cash for
clunkers program kicked in. Oh, and let's not forget this is DOLLARS not
UNITS. So, if you have 4½ percent monetary
inflation (M1) or if you want to use Bat's M3 down 7%, then the implied decline
in units could be anywhere from units down 2% (plus or minus noise) to
down 5% (plus or minus noise) which is what I would expect.
Is George full-o-crap? Well, look at the Rail
Time Indicators report from the Association of American Railroads for July:
Association of American Railroads (AAR) today (Monday, actually, - G)
reported that monthly rail carloads for July 2010 were up 4.1 percent
compared with the same period last year, but still down 14.6 percent
compared with July 2008. According to AAR’s August Rail Time Indicators
Report, intermodal traffic in July was up 17.3 percent compared with the
same month in 2009, but also down 5.1 percent compared with July 2008. "
Smart guys at the AAR - one of the few reports to look at two years, not
this lamebrain 1-year crap most follow. Right on...
Oh, and a check of the
chart shows from year ago levels, the Baltic Dry Index is still lower,
although gaining a bit in the past few weeks...
Down at the open? On the Friday the 13th? Why, imagine that.
Who would have thought...except of course for Georgie Porgy, pudding and
puts, made some bucks while being nuts... (reads
better than it speaks, LOL)
While we wait for the market to open, and I consider my roughly 10% gain for the
week for today's decline, (profits from being in short-side winners) one of
those Tyler Durden notes over at ZeroHedge is worth a read.
Scroll down a
bit here and realize the so-called Hindenburg Omen has just gone off.
In case you missed it, and you may have, the Wall St. Cheat Sheet has a list of
Occupations that will never recover from the Great Recession". Your's
A reader who signed himself President, University of Retired Person (a moniker
or nom de web worth filching) offered this parallel view:
"Just passing this along in case you are not aware of it. I'm sure your
readers would be interested. While the rest of the US is in a depression, at
least one government agency (Commerce) is offering buyouts of as much as
$25,000 for people to leave their good government jobs. Usually when the
government squanders tax dollars this way, its because they don't want to
implement reduction in force (RIF) procedures where they can't protect their
favorite employees. You know, the ones who will follow orders and not
understand what they are doing, or worse."
My, how history rhymes at times...
Cups of Java
Oracle is going after Google for infringing on its Java patentplex.
How close the Android - mostly phones - operating system gets seems to be headed
for long (read: expensive) litigation.
Funding the Aristocracy
Did you read the juicy details about FHA loans for the ultra rich in the story
"Manhattan Luxury Condos Try FHA Backing in Sales "Game Changer".
Has someone in the Federal Housing Administration lost sight of reality?
What ever happened in the marketplace to excesses being allowed to fail?
Big Quake Worry?
Like you don't have enough to worry about, right? How to scrape up the
dough for the Q3 tax filings due on September 15th. Kids to soccer, and on
But try to save some room on your worry list to look at the quake swarming in
the Azores Islands region of the Eastern Atlantic. Not just one or two,
but SEVEN quakes all around 36 North, -32.9 to -33 degrees.
That these quakes are about 200-miles south of the Azores is not the point, nor
is the activity in the Mid Atlantic Ridge.
Nope: The thing to worry about is what this might do to the Island of
Santa Cruz de la Palma...where the Cumbre Vieja is a disaster waiting to happen.
Ever read the Wikipedia entry on what happens when Cumbre Vieja slips?
"British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC2
Channel) transmitted “Mega-tsunami; Wave of Destruction”,
which suggested that a future failure of the western flank of the
Cumbre Vieja would cause a "mega-tsunami."
Day et al. (1999)
and Ward and Day (2001)
hypothesize that during a future unascertained eruption, the western
half of the Cumbre Vieja - approximately 500 km3 (5 x 1011 m3) with
an estimated mass 1.5 x 1015 kg, will catastrophically fail in a
massive gravitational landslide and enter the
Atlantic Ocean generating a so called "mega-tsunami." The debris
will continue to travel - as a
debris flow, along the ocean floor. Computer modeling indicates
that the resulting initial wave may attain a local amplitude
(height) in excess of 600 metres (1,969 ft) and an initial peak to
peak height that approximates to 2 kilometres (1 mi), and travel at
about 1,000 kilometres per hour (621 mph) (approximately the speed
jet aircraft), inundating the
coast in about 1 hour, the southern coast of
England in about 3.5 hours, and the
eastern seaboard of
North America in about 6 hours, by which time the initial wave
would have subsided into a succession of smaller ones each about 30 metres
(98 ft) to 60 metres (197 ft) high. These may surge to several
hundred metres in height and be several kilometres apart but
retaining their original speed. The models of Day et al.,
and Ward and Day, suggest that it
could inundate up to 25 kilometres (16 mi) inland. This would
greatly damage or destroy cities along the entire North American
eastern seaboard. The physical damage would take tens if not
hundreds years to repair and restore. The economies of the countries
affected would likewise take several years to return to the
you don't think that would compare with your pother worriers would it? I
seem to recall the runway height at Boca Raton, Florida is
only 13-feet above sea level,
Miami International is only 8-feet or so if I'm reading the sectional right.
No point worrying, especially if you live in Florida.
Speaking of which - several Florida folks wrote in and offered that the spate of
palm trees (and other vegetation) turning brown is due to a recent cold
snap...not from Gulf disaster operations. OK...whatever.
===== snip and save section =====
How to Jump Time Lines
We've spent a fair amount of energy this week exploring the idea that local
reality may - occasionally, but often enough to be noticed now and then - be
subject to distortion for reasons we don't yet fully understand.
Whether we're talking about a set of carpenter's measuring devices which agree
one day, but not the next, and then gsomehow get 'back into agreement',. or
whether something larger, perhaps even a different system of reality is crossing
paths with our, is not clear.
On this last point, however, here's a strange report - but strange only insofar
as it doesn't make sense to the tighten controlled part of our thinking.
The part of our mind that is beyond control doesn't seem to have many
problems with stories like this...
"Good Morning, I had to write and tell you about
a strange occurrence on Monday. Previously you have heard from my wife about
the shadow people doing their thing in front of the children. And then the
time/space bubble out by the greenhouse. Well, she had another strange slip,
but this one is very interesting and definitely worth examination. Let me
preface this by saying she has always been ‘sensitive’. She see’s things and
knows things that she shouldn’t. When she gets a bad feeling about
something, we tend not do go near it (whatever it may be). She told me about
this Monday night, but did not tell me the full details because she thought
I reacted a little ‘off’ to what she saw. It was not until Wednesday night
that she told me the full story. Here it is, as best as I can relay.
She was sitting on the deck watching our 2 and 3
year old play with the water toys. She started to see little black spots all
around her, falling. For a while she really did not think too much of it
until she started to concentrate on one of them. As she did she says it was
like everything turned black and white and time slowed. To her the spots
looked like ash falling. Like that from a camp fire that is taken up from
the rising currents of heat, released from the thermal and slowly falls to
earth. Only they were everywhere. As she has become very familiar with the
‘shadows’ she decide to try to interact this time. She reached out to touch
one of the ‘particles’ on its way down. When she did everything turned back
to normal. She looked to her fingers and she was holding the wing of a
I find this extremely fascinating! Did she just
pick something out of the ether? And if so, Is there a dragon fly having a
hard time getting around on the other side? Seriously though, this is
strange and awesome all in one.
So, as we collect various data points and try to map out what may be a larger -
yet misunderstood larger phenomenology - the reports just keep coming in.
You may recall a while back the case of the slow-driving 1950's red Cadillac
that a reader reported following in the late night/ early morning hours that at
a particular bump in the road whether the driver's attention was distracted,
turned into a late model Camry?
I suggested at the time that it is possible that accidents do occur where
people quite sincerely looked, saw nothing oncoming, then looked away
momentarily only to be gob-smacked by a large whatever resulting in an
accident with sometimes painful evidence that something went wrong. Could
it be that accidents are sometimes caused by timeline or reality
Why, the implicates of this for the insurance industry alone are staggering.
What if, as I've suggested elsewhere, the whole field of statistics is
just a 'mathematical haze' designed to keep us - and the whole of society - from
recognizing the presence of some syrupy goo that pervades everything and yet
seems only available for direct manipulation via certain ritualistic practices
which pop out of three large sphere of humans endeavoring? Those sphere,
as you might have guessed, would be conventional religious rituals, the self
evidenced rituals for certain adepts on a spiritual path, and the 'dark path'
Returning to the reality gob-smacking around cars for a moment: If we
hypothesize that 'reality can jump and cause accidents, would it now also
stand to reason that an occasional reality jumps could also prevent and
accident? Just in the nick of reality, in pops an email with confirmation
that yes, a neatly timed reality jump does have the potential to prevent
what could otherwise be an accident with serious consequences:
"Finally have reason to write you once again. I had one of those ‘dandy’
disappearing cars the other day. I was running an errand for my wife, and
decided to rush a turn on a yellow light. (Yeah, it’s kind of dangerous, and
I admit that I am not the best driver in the world.) I managed to ‘cut off’
a dilapidated looking late 80’s vintage compact Chevy Chevette. The driver
had his green light and I just barreled into the intersection. I thought to
myself ‘oh crap’. Luckily, he was slowly starting from a stop, and I was
already at speed. After completing the turn, I looked up into my rear view
mirrors (and physically turned my head around)…NO CAR!!! It was as if it had
never been there. George, IT most certainly WAS THERE. To paraphrase William
Jefferson Clinton- SHAZAM! THE BUCK NEVER GOT HERE! - Thank goodness-"
Intervention of the Almighty Universe? Perhaps so, but does it
(meaning the syrupy goo that warps reality & time) work
the other way, too? When an accident is caused, not prevented by a 'reality jump'?
Since people spend so much time awake and driving, where their minds are not
specifically trained on a work-related task (driving being something of an
automated response mechanism after a while) we'd almost expect
synch-winks and reports of the phenomena to be popping up all over the place.
Sure enough, as I write this at 5:40 AM, in pops another email with another
reported reality jump while driving:
"I was driving to work a few days ago, & stopped at a light before turning
left on to the road where my office is. The other side of the intersection
was empty. Left arrow turns green, off I go & have nearly completed the left
turn when I see a bicyclist immediately to my left, riding away from me on a
bearing that indicated he had come straight across the intersection in front
of me - but he was so close that the only way he could have done that is by
riding through the front of my truck! I think I would have noticed that..."
I had one of these odd 'while driving' experiences. Happened to me as a
newsman back in the 1970's when I was chasing down the news up in the Seattle
area, including a lot of time spent driving in the city. Only once, but it
was enough to make me conscious of it forever going forward, I came to a stop
light and since 'free right turns' are permitted in Washington unless otherwise
posted, I looked right (no pedestrians in sight) then left (no oncoming traffic)
and then started to advance.
All of a sudden not one, but three people just appeared a few feet from
my right front fender, one guy carrying a coffee who slapped my hood and called
me a stupid sonavabitch, gesturing at the Walk light in his favor and yelling at
me for not looking where I was going. But I had... I
was awake, alert, and had just come out of the press parking section of the
Municipal Building underground parking garage, had gone up the hill a half block, and was
turning south onto 5th avenue when it happened. Truly a strange slice of
A reader suggested that we might enjoy a Tom Kenyon article under the heading
"The Art of Jumping Time
Lines". But more than anything lately, I'm busily collecting all the 'smoking
gun' evidence I can from a wide range of sources, on the theory that with enough
data the outline of whatever will resolve into clear enough focus to turn
the engineering/monkey mind loose on the problem and get somewhere.
There's more than a whiff of smoke to be found in a book, now several years old
called Hunt for the Skinwalker: Science Confronts the Unexplained at a Remote Ranch in Utah,
coauthored by George Knapp who hosts now and then on CoastToCoastAM when he's
not a busy news director in Las Vegas.
So, too, are whiffs and hints found in Dean Radin's book Entangled Minds: Extrasensory Experiences in a Quantum Reality.
Damn Schrödinger and
his cat, anyway. Still, we're left to wonder whether we really co create
reality -- in which case the 'jumps' of time & matter could be nothing more than
an internal processing error (as in the Matrix) -- or whether intention
works on something external in which case we oughta be able to engineer
it, which in turn would get us propulsion and physical lawbreaking physics for
UFO's, interdimensional doorways for star gates and a whole lot of phenomena
under the 'other'. Seen any Sasquatch,
Still, before we blow up the planet (November?) seems to me one of the most
important of all human projects would be a comprehensive study listing out all
the phenomena, and then putting the best brains in the world into a setting away
from the press, away of the limelight, with the mission "Solve it!"
Whether the residents of what would be the functional equivalent of Line Land
could figure out the larger reality of Flat Land (along with additional layers
of dimensional reality) seems unlikely. But the religious types, the
spiritual aesthetics, and even the child sacrificers of the dark side, all seem
to be able to tweak a bit deeper into the mystery of this expanded reality than
is common in everyday experience. How much of this was accessed by the
Druids, and other followers of the Witchery Way - and how many died at the hands
of religious power-trippers anxious to lock up tithing so they simply offed the
competition at the stake? Or, is that the wrong read of the
facts...however troubling it may be to remember the winning side writes its
own version of history. The work is tedious, slow, yet somehow
If you've got some time this weekend, I'd invite you to line up your own
evidence - all the weird stuff that's happened to you in life. See if
there's not some overlooked mechanism behind it, and if so, how it operates and
more to the point, how it's manipulated besides the obvious prayer, ritual, and
yogic exercises helped along by a vegetarian diet. That much is about
obvious. But how much further along can we get?
Seem so far, most of the breakthroughs in manipulation of 'this stuff' have come
from individuals who are then labeled enlightened.
Fine. But what about a workbook for the rest of us, independent of the
powermeisters who demand tithe and offer to sell us a peek?
And how subtle their skein woven into a mindset that includes odd concepts of
property and ownership, which are expressions of control...it's all so damn
Something to ponder, as we roll through this last bit of Summer. Hard to
come down from the rapid action buzz of high tech life long enough to blank the
mind and properly frame the Big Questions. But worth it, nevertheless,
since in the end, it's the only questions that really matter, if you'll forgive
the intended double entendre off the word matter.
As the Second Depression unfolds, the really good news from the omnihumanity
part may be that we'll collectively have a lot more time for thinking since the
working hours may head down 'job share road' like they did in the (first)
We'll continue watching that particular train wreck Monday morning....or
tomorrow for subscribers to Peoplenomics. Saturday's report has a chalk
talk on the charts and where we could go next, the latest FDIC data (if
any is released after the market close today), and then Sunday's report digs
into the delta between the government jobs forecast of 2002/2003 and the
reality of 2009/2010.
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13 Acres and Independence
The Economics of Yardwork
Not something most folks
think about, but there are some surprising economics - not to mention a
whole bushel basket of social programming involved, in the evolution of
the 'perfectly groomed' American yard. Given the market's
midsummer doldrums (last week's move wasn't very big, really) and given
that many readers do have property-related to-do lists, this week some
thoughts on trends, social drivers, and costs of yardwork.
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and click over to the DreamBase - commercial-free and open
The folks at Maxa Research have put
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Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully
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"Live on $10,000" A
Having a hard time
making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting
point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live
on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
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anyone who might also like our content, simply click here
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Last week's report is
Thursday August 12, 2010
Can We Bounce?
You want the long answer (bound to be somewhat entertaining) or the short answer
(which will bum you out and) which is not part of my business model?
Short answer: "Not enough to matter."
Long answer: In the wake of yesterday's big decline in the market,
we would normally expect a bounce of anywhere from 38.2% to the bump at 50% and
the often-hit 61.8%. BUT those numbers were the convenient stops along the
way before the world was swimming in debt and before HF trading/front-running
programs which overdo some moves, while fading others.
Oh, and talking to Clif - that messiness later in the month (August 25-28) seems
to arise not out of Terra or GlobalPop entities which bring up that as a window
for market collapse -- but he's still running data and working on the next
"Shape of Things to Come" report so give him time (he said, blushing at the
The idea that the market will go on to a bounce leading to a new high is a lot
less probable now. On Wednesday morning, Robin Landry sent out this to his
colleagues in the investment community who follow his work:
This is just a quick update to alert you that
the uptrend line from the July low of this year was broken on the open this
morning. This says to me that the probability that the top of minor wave 2
is in, and we are now in minor wave 3, of intermediate wave 1, of primary 3.
We hit my target area for the Dow as outlined in the last update and also in
the middle of the time zone I have been looking at for a top. Bottom line is
this. IF my count is correct, the market is starting a very significant
decline that, when, over will break the lows of March ’09. There will be
rallies along the way but now is the last chance to get out of the way
without significant damage to your financial health. Do not listen to those
who say a large decline is not in the cards due to indicators they are
watching. I have said many times over the years that we are in a period of
time that the things that worked well in the past will not work during this
Bear Market due to DEGREE of this decline. With High Frequency Trading and
all the derivatives that are being used today, the old indicators no longer
give an insight into the markets they used to do. First target is July ’10
low around 9600, then July ’09 low around 8100 area. I then believe we will
see a nice rally for a few months before turning down again to lower levels.
I will try to keep you advised as the decline and wave structure develops.
Remember that SURPRISES should be expected in this decline, and they should
be toward the downside. As always questions and comments are welcome and I
will answer as time allows.
If I had to throw a dart (and this is in no way financial advice, just how I
think the cards will be turned) I wouldn't be surprised to see an
'end-of-August' kind of low - maybe into early September, then the resumption of
the Big Decline in mid to late October.
Then (in the spirit of the timing around 9/11/2001) a series of real public
distractions (Middle East War? False Flag attacks on American soil?) which
would appear to be of foreign sources, yet which upon inspection will
neatly serve the purpose of providing an 'other than markets to blame'
explanation for what ails us this fall.
IF the Israeli/US Western alliance does not attack Iran's burgeoning by
the end of this month, the odds will then increase that the attack will come the
week after US elections and that, in turn, sets up a kind of slow-motion
chain-reaction (poor choice of words, I admit, given the topic area) which will
result in global thermonuclear war lite for 2½
months in 2011.
Neat thing about such a war-to-come - if you don't
mind all the bodies and the radioactivity, yada, yada, yada - is that it really
would take the public's mind off realizing that this is the second major leg
down into Depression but it won't be the economic system that's failed us
- just like Leg One Down (2001) coming on the heals of the Internet Bubble
bursting, swept the public's attention off the root economic cause and provided
convenient 'cover' for the PowersThatBe.
Oh, and besides the bodies, radiation, yada, yada,
there's also the little matter of a massive hyperinflation - which results from
a conscious decision by government to inflate its way out of its failing
currency. Plenty of lessons on how that workout is managed,
although the post- WW I
German Weimar Republic and more recently, Robert Mugabe's sticking it to the
banksters of the West via
Zimbabwe Inflation of the past few years. This is what to gold?
Thanks to some mighty generous readers, I have
several one-hundred trillion dollar Zimbabwe currency taped up on the wall to
remind me that there's essentially no difference in hard costs of printing any
fiat money, regardless of the number of zeroes on it.
Oh sure, the 'war' and the 'attacks' will be real enough in nominal
terms, but way off in the background it will be a 'set-up' to finish off the
great swindling of America's working class from the last of its lifetime savings
and to beggar the upper-middle and destroy capacity worldwide in order to reset
the game for another round. Recall that wars serve a very important
economic function - artificially creating demand where markets were previously
saturated before and paving the way for a slightly different approach.
All depressions end in war - BIG WAR - for this reason.
All of which gets us around to watching the timing of the little war
(before the Big War, which is how all economic depressions end, but which of
course have already figured out). Thus, the story today on the Haartez.com
website under the headline "The
morning after the attack on Iran" becomes a must-read, as does the VOA
report that Iran is still the top 'terror threat' in the world as "The
U.S. State Department's annual report on international terrorism found the
Islamic Republic of Iran is still the most active state sponsor of terrorism in
Also - curiously timed since it could fit either timing outcome - is The
Atlantic's new analysis of how the M.E. will play out under the title
Point of No Return" - definitely worth bookmarking if you're pressed for
time this morning.
All of which is long-term directional, but not worth a damn for the short-term
direction of the market.
For that we need to look at the "Number de Jour". The main serving this
morning is the weekly jobs reports:
the week ending Aug. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial
claims was 484,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised
figure of 482,000. The 4-week moving average was 473,500, an increase of
14,250 from the previous week's revised average of 459,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured
unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending July 31, a decrease of
0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted
insured unemployment during the week ending July 31 was 4,452,000, a
decrease of 118,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,570,000.
The 4-week moving average was 4,518,500, a decrease of 64,500 from the
preceding week's revised average of 4,583,000.
The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally
adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated
AWIU trigger, was 5.018 million. "
Frigging dandy. Ya'll be sure and come back tomorrow when our "Numbers de
jour" will be the monthly Consumer Price Index, retail fails...I mean retail
sales and the ever popular ('cuz it's easy to dance to) Michigan Sentiment
In keeping with the tone of my Wednesday note "Fed In The Box" the NY Post today
has an article about how the Fed is about out of bullets under the headline "Empty
Chambers: Bernanke's flaccid Fed sends investors to the exits...".
While this talk about war and war timing may sound far fetched, consider that
the problem from the macroeconomic perspective is this: How else could do
you obsolete inappropriate intangible capital to eliminated its debt
I won't do all your thinking for you, but
first bite might be this paper by Leonard Nakamura Philadelphia Fed paper...
so how big is the derivatives notional value out there? And, is it a form
of intangible capital? You see where this goes, right?
Well, gold's getting it - on a tear this morning and up nearly $16 bucks when I
looked. Disappointed by Crisco and the jobs data, more downside action
seems in store.
And that risky position being short with my play money paid 10% in just one day.
Maybe 15-18% in two, the way things look now. Oh well, good thing I don't
give financial advice, huh?
Who Got Bailed?
Oh, lots of overseas banks - you money you and I so graciously provided - over
our strenuous objections at the time. "Watchdog
panel cites global impact of US bailout" makes is sound like the PTB having
their way with Congress is somehow OK and that ignoring the clear will
of the people to save the Richie Riches is just peach. Well, FMTT (the
last three letters mean ...me to tears... and is a common SF /
military phrase if you need a hint what it means...)
Say, are big quakes working their way of the South American west coast?
This morning there was a 6.9 shake in Ecuador...backside of ther Andes...too
early for damage reports.
Another Ugly Linguistic Fill
Several dozen readers have sent me (and Clif) links to the headline over at the
WorldVisionPortal site about
emergence of the Blue Flu which may evolve into Blue Plague in the wake of
the Gulf Spill(s) and all those dispersants.
Thanks for the links, but enough...Thanks to the miracle of a rickety time
machine, we've known about this for a couple of years. We're past the
point of surprise on any of this stuff.
Clicking Away (tropical)
I assume you've seen the headline that the
"Relief well drilling to resume as tropical depression falls apart"...??
Pure accident that this happened, or is the larger level of planetary
controllers a/k/a the PowersThatBe at work in plain sight?
A reader with an open mind on such things believes HAARP technology may be
responsible for busting up this latest potential hurricane...
Another tropical storm bounces off the HAARP Gulf of Mexico High Pressure
Shield and collapses.
the HAARP Fluxgate Magnetometer; Did you notice people were crabbier
yesterday, cause I did. looks like fault lines are not the only Terra items
that get grumpy with HAARP.
Use the 'previous day' function under the chart to look at yesterday's action
(date below the x axis time labels).
By the way, a buddy of mine in South Florida called last night to notice that a
lot of plants (big ones like palm trees) are dying. "If they're dying, I'm
getting out of here..." he explained.
FBI's Copyright Focus
Say, you didn't happen to catch that the "FBI
Prioritizes Copyright Issues; Not so concerned about Missing Persons" over
All of which wouldn't be too surprising, but the article suggests things like
theft are also going down the fed's list of focal issues.
Time to copyright your identity, along with all use of DNA, photographic
likenesses and inked impressions of body parts? I know it sounds weird,
but there's no law permitting government free use of copyright material, is
there? Thus, if you were ever caught doing something...could you be
prosecuted without payment of copyright fees (couple of million bucks, maybe?)
to use your name and likeness? Just thinking out loud here...
The Right-Left Game, Redux
UrbanSurvival reader Chris Ross has a fine honor: His song "Freedom" has
Best (or Worst) Tea Party-Inspired Music (Videos)" list. Gotta wonder
what other lists a fellow can get on for singing about quickly
disappearing American values? It ain't right-left politics, it's
Up-Down...which just scares the bejeezus out of the PTB when people start giving
voice to that...
Time to Shower
Might want to click over to
www.spaceweather.com and read up on the Perseids meteor shower which peaks
Meantime a reader sends this curious reminder:
"Ring around the Rosery ...pocket full f posey's ashes, ashes THEY all fall
Remember back about 6 months ago.. god of war,
mars, god of war.. how come you havent mentioned how close Mars will be to
aerth this month.. closest in 65,000 years.. if my understanding is
correct... bound to be some gravitational pulls.. although minute..still an
avalanch starts with a single solid H2.O molecule.."
Uh... I'll do my part by using a littler extra water in my evening adult
refreshment. Only one kinda shower at the ranch today, clouds are in the
forecast for tonight. Besides, the mars is closest emails have been around
===== snip and save section =====
"Dimension Slips" II
A fair amount of thoughtful mail has popped in after yesterday's discussion of
people finding trouble measuring things.
"Hey George -
There are a few of us here in Austin that read your column regularly and
enjoy it. (Thanks, btw.)
My interest, primarily, is more the predictive language and the woo-woo
I write my own column mostly relating Astrology, Numerology and what I "get"
via the Tarot and the Akashic Records (a la Edgar Cayce).
Anyway, I was thinking about yesterday's column and everyone having problems
with measurements. Now you guys have gotten recently that the sun could
start affecting us adversely. I have also read from other sources
(Astrologers and/or channeled material) that the sun can start affecting our
mental and emotional states if we are not centered/grounded and/or working
on our spiritual self, what-have-you.
Now, one thing that I notice in general is that I seem to experience
weird stuff before others do. I think it is partly because I've grown
sensitive to stimulus and partly because it then allows me to write about it
in my column and help people out - if only to validate what they are
Well, all that being said, I've been feeling pretty crazy lately. I am not
experiencing dimensional issues (either with measuring or otherwise), but I
am finding my mind not working normally. I find it popping out memories out
of no where that I haven't thought about it a long time, like it is
misfiring and like a memory glitch in a computer. Also some "patterns" from
long ago seem to have reared recently (thought patterns I thought were
So, let's think about Occam's razor for a sec. What is more likely, that
dimensions are shifting such that the actual lengths of physical objects is
shifting, or that we are experiencing some type of mental misfiring that is
causing us to handle things like measurement, time/space perception, and
chain of thought oddly? It does fit what you guys have gotten - how was it
phrased, "sun disease"?
Anyway - this just popped in while waking, which is often how I get
intuitive hits, so I am going to sit with this, do a Tarot reading or two,
and then maybe write about it in my own blog. But I thought I would shoot
you an email about it for the fun of it...
Keep up the good stuff (let's just say all of it) & Namasté from a TX
An interesting site, too...which gets us back to the 'time slips' and 'dimension
slip reports...like this one:
"OK, so you had that posting about weird
measurements in OK. I concur. On Monday, here in NE Kansas (38.97N, 95.23W)
my beloved, a mature man who has made many tape measure measurements in his
life, measured our front door as we need to replace it and we were going to
make the pilgrimage to Home Depot for a new one. I with pen and paper waited
his numbers -- "Well, it's 75 ish... well... maybe." I said to him it was
either 75 or it was not and if it was 75 and a quarter he needed to say so.
He measured again. "Well, it is 74." "Dear," says I in my sweetest wifey
voice, it was 75 ish but now it is 74? How is that?" He measures again.
"Well, it is 74 now," he says. That was Monday. Today (Wednesday) it is 76".
As you so often say, "WTF?"
Had a time slip too. This was on the one cool
day in early August -- sad thing about the change in the weather in KS is
that it used to be nice -- low humidity even if it was 100 degrees -- now it
is much more South Texas-like with high humidities. We actually had a day a
couple of weeks ago that was like the old days (three or four years ago) I
have to say as a 43-year resident of Houston with it's Saigon-like
humidities, moving here in the mid-90s was wonderful. No more bad hair days
-- until now -- I am having to use the same humidity control stuff that I
used in the Houston days. AAAAnnnnyyyyway:
Time slip. Took the doggies out for a throw.
Walked our usual route which takes all of two minutes to inspect where that
neighbor cat hangs out and the little rat dog next door poops. I threw the
ball once, Sophie (as always) got it and ran ahead refusing to give it to
me. Nine gave chase. We got around behind our house and I looked up, saw a
jet, leaving what I can only imagine was a chem-trail, flying west from
Topeka over Larryville. The trail was very high and if you held up your arm
full length and opened your thumb and forefinger up to about 2.5" that was
how "big" it was. I looked down at my dogs who had laid down in the grass on
the berm behind the house, with this "uhhhhh... what?" look. I looked back
up at the sky where the jet/trail was and it was simply gone. I thought
"huh?" In a perfectly cloudless sky, waaay off to the north of where I'd
spotted the trail was a fuzzed out long-ish "cloud". I stared. It was the
chem-trail after the upper level winds had moved it well north of its
original deployment. Normally it takes 20-30 minutes for something like that
to happen, even on a very windy day. I looked back at the dogs. They were
thoroughly bored with me and were basically napping in the cool grass. I
told them there were cookies waiting for them inside and we walked inside. I
know we were only outside about 5 and no more than 10 minutes. When I got
back in, 25 minutes had passed since I walked outside. And again I ask you,
Weird shows up in Hawaii:
Read your opening story on measurements this
week w/great interest.
Funny thing is I had set aside an odd mishap
that's been going on for about a month now..until you posted something from
a reader regarding their coffee making.
I have simplified coffee making for hubby in the
morning if he has to get up extra early so we could enjoy a good cup of
java. You see he's the kind of guy that could take a shower 1/2 asleep &
come out still 1/2 asleep so setting a routine for him if his eyes were 1/2
closed was important...for both of us :)
We order Peets. We have a Capresso machine.
Needless to say I love my java, so ruining the first cup of the day is a
tough awakening. For some reason *sometimes* when hubby has been making the
coffee in the past month the mugs come up short -- making the coffee waaaaay
too strong. Yet on other days it's perfect!
I've been scratching my head on this one as
there is NO way for him to mess this up. Empty one full container of cold
water from the fridge. (check) Add coffee. (check) Press start. (check)
This morning I ended up w/a 1/3 of a cup.
It wasn't that he was doing anything
wrong--because it's happened to me as well. (& I'm wide awake when I make
it) Heck I even turned the Capresso upside down one morning to see if there
was water *trapped* in there! Nada.
Got me to thinking....maybe I'll just monitor
the *time* the coffee is being made to see if there is a pattern in the
morning hours. The odd thing is that is the only time of day it happens!"
And this from a reader in Chicago:
All the reader comments from the past couple
days about spatial dimensions 'slipping' made me think of a strange feeling
I got a few days ago--and maybe this is a new one for you (though you've
probably heard/seen almost everything!). I'm a pianist, old school Russian
trained, and have played since the age of 5, so my body has grown up knowing
the feel of a keyboard. It's an extremely precise physical connection, a
nearly unconscious one, and training has bred a high degree of physical
sensitivity. So even though I'm not arthritic I can tell when the weather's
changing just by the slight difference in feeling.
Practicing the other day I started to feel acute
discomfort I hadn't before. It wasn't any of the number of ways that I ache
from the weather changing, not being warmed up, tired, doing something
wrong, etc., it hurt in strange places in my hands and arms that don't
normally. It has happened only a couple of times recently (that I remember),
and then a thought occurred to me last week, it felt like I was playing on a
keyboard that was too small. Disconcerting to say the least. And it felt
like I was compensating in every dimension, width, front-back depth, and
even vertical depth (i.e. height of the black keys). The keys didn't look
smaller, and measuring them wouldn't have helped since I wouldn't know the
'normal' measurements anyway. The feeling was slight, but more so than the
difference that would be expected playing a different piano. Oh, and it's
the same piano I've had for a few years. Definitely one of the oddest
feelings I've experienced.
Not sure what that adds to the discussion, but
there it is."
And not to drive the point into the ground, but there's this one, too:
When I read about the strange things happening
with measuring wood a chill ran down my spine. I do custom cabinet work
(more as a hobby than a business) and as such precise measurements are
simply part of the job, and normally I have no problem. As some of the other
folks point out -- measure twice and only cut once.
Well, about six months back I suddenly found
that everything I was doing seemed to be off by 1/16" to 1/8". Now that may
not sound like much, but in cabinet work a 1/16" is huge, and 1/8" is a
disaster. In frustration I decided to check my measurement devices -- tape
measure, square, yard stick, saw fence, etc., and what I found was that NONE
OF THEM AGREED WITH EACH OTHER! It was weird, but I figured that is just how
far we, as a society, have slipped and I started using only one device for
all critical measurements. Problem solved. Right?
Okay, here is the weird part -- after reading
your report yesterday I decided to check and see if all my measuring stuff
was still different....IT IS NOT! My tape measure agrees with my yard stick,
which both agree with my square, and all agree with the table saw
And, as I was thinking about it, I haven't had
the problem in months. Just wanted to put my 2 cent worth into the
There was plenty of other email,, too - just too busy to get all of it posted.
One, for example, explained that the Racetrack Playa rocks were moved by high
winds. But, why some rocks, not others? And why aren't they all
pilled up at one end of the track, down wind from the prevailing wind?
Questions, always damnable questions. Or maybe it's the answers becoming
Still, have some suggestion that whatever is slipping involves some of the
Time gets wonky and periods go missing
The disappearing and reappearing cars and such suggest reality changes in a
Dimensional shifting is reported by many people
...and on and on....
New phenomenology? Or, old phenomena that a few people (Edward
Leedskalnin of Coral Castle fame, for example) are somehow able to tap into
and manipulate? Darned if I know.
Had a dandy follow-up from Shane Connor over at
www.ki4u.com on the fair number of people who were unable to access his site
from Australia, where he sells recalibrated radiation equipment (think civil
defense here) as well as those nifty new pocket patch dosimeters.
I'd gotten 9 trace routes, as a result of your request of readers, and
passed them onto Kent [their IT guy - G] to evaluate.
He tells me he can't conclusively point to any official interruptions and
most look to be from risky IP's that we had blocked. Our having
unblocked some of those normally risky IP's has taken care of many of the
other's that could not get through. We are still a little concerned, though,
why, since we had not changed our blocked list in six years, that we'd had
so many in just last six months stop being able to get through, especially
from the Aussies.
We've set up a program here now to watch and track our international traffic
even closer now, to catch changes in volumes quicker, hopefully before
having visitors tell us first that they can't access the site.
On another note, your mention today of "Ill
Winds File " reminds me that my most recent guide I'd just
written, covers basically the same subject of radiation contamination coming
in on the wind, from
afar, it's entitled "When An ill
Wind Blows From Afar!" at
You should give it a read sometime, it's pretty interesting, as I'd written
it for the panic we'll likely see here when Iran nuke facilities get bombed,
or Pakistan and India mix-it-up, or North Korea goes wild, and then we have
their nuke contamination blowing in here to the USA on the winds. You'll be
surprised how much and how often that's already happened in the past, and
most certainly will again in the future.
Keep that 'ill wind' guide in-mind for sharing it with readers when any of
the above happens, as it'll be then just what they will need to know then.
Don't even need a war, per se, to make the 'Ill Winds" worth a read, since
you're no doubt aware of all the press coverage of
the wildfires in Russia putting once-grounded radioactive leftovers from
Chernobyl back into the atmopshere...
Drugged in Canada?
Then you need to keep an eye on this developing story:
"Dear Mr. Ure,
There is no official reason being given why
Canadian provinces are experiencing growing back orders on 30 to 50 types of
common medications. This problem has developed in the last year. Some are
blaming government price controls, others are blaming ObamaCare for opening
generic drug opportunities in the USA. Canadian pharmacists are rationing
some patients' prescriptions. They are also reformulating medicines to act
as substitutes for the missing originals.
This should become interesting rather quickly as
Canadian medicare is funded federally but managed by the individual
provinces. I am confident the wealthy provinces will bid whatever it takes
to secure what they deem as their entitlement of product. A sick but still
ambulatory population is a bane of elected officials. You really weren't
joking when you advised to stock up on vodka and whisky, were you?
(Disclaimer: Please consult a physician before embarking on a program of
The reader's up in Winnipeg...
Monkeying Around in Washington
Here's an email making the rounds that gives keen insight into the psychology of
"Start with a cage containing five monkeys.
Inside the cage, hang a banana on a string and place a set of stairs under
Before long, a monkey will go to the stairs and
start to climb towards the banana.
As soon as he touches the stairs, spray all the
other monkeys with cold water.
After a while another monkey makes the attempt
with same result, all the other monkeys are sprayed with cold water.
Pretty soon when another Monkey tries to climb
the stairs, the other monkeys will try to prevent it.
Now, put the cold water away. Remove one monkey
from the cage and replace it with a new one.
The new monkey sees the banana and wants to
climb the stairs.
To his shock, all of the other monkeys beat the
snot out of him. After another attempt and attack, he knows that if he tries
to climb the stairs he will be assaulted.
Next, remove another of the original five
monkeys and replace it with a new one.
The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked.
The previous newcomer takes part in the
punishment with enthusiasm. Likewise, replace a third original monkey with a
new one, then a fourth, then the fifth.
Every time the newest monkey takes to the stairs
he is attacked.
Most of the monkeys that are beating him up have
no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs
OR even why they are participating in the
beating of the newest monkey. Finally, after replacing all of the original
monkeys, none of the remaining monkeys have ever been sprayed with cold
Nevertheless, no monkey ever again approaches
the stairs to try for the banana.
Because as far as they know, that is the way it
has always been done around here.
And that, my fellow monkeys, is how Congress
And precisely why we need to REPLACE all the
original monkeys this November.
My apologies to small simian types. Terrible thing I've done here, posting
this comparison of your part of the family tree with sitting members of
Congress. Sorry. Or at least nearly so. -Curious George
Wednesday August 12, 2010
Fed In The Box
The Fed is running out of 'wiggle room' and the Balance of Trade isn't helping.
That's where we start today. While the Fed decision to hold rates steady
is being assessed by investors, the
markets in Asia were mostly down last night and in
Europe this morning much
For the US marts, this could be a watershed day. The reason?
Technically we've been in an ascending triangle. Technical analysis
(theory) holds that if a triangle formation points up the market will
head down in a major way when the triangle is complete. Conversely, a
downward pointing triangle often results in an upward move.
Of course I'm loaded to the
gunwales on the short side, expecting any minute for the market to roll over
and play dead...except it may not be play.
Although the Fed gets a lot of attention, there is a lot of other news going on
in background which could make markets nervous. Congress is going back to
work (or whatever it is they do, if'n you follow). The democorps have
plans for a second stimulus bill which has given the republicorps reason for
lots of news names for it such as "Frivolous
Acts of Ineffective Largess" - the FAIL Act.
On the other hand, we have to give intellectual honesty points to one-time
Reagan administration Office of Management and Budget Director David Stockman
who is willing to stand up and place much of the blame on the Bushies,
saying the Bush administration's tax cuts will drive America into bankruptcy.
Of course, we've been nattering on about the pending 'death of the dollar' in
November for years - when something is going to be as big & widely impacting as
that, it's hard to get the year right, so it turns out. Still, infinite
debt loads can't work forever.
A friend of mine, Bob Bronson, in a note to colleagues noted this:
"…our work shows the 5.5-week, 11.6% advance (so far) from the Jul 1 S&P 500
(SPX) index’s intraday low of 1011 up to yesterday’s SPX intraday high at
1129, which was near the lower end of the normal retracement range of
between one-half and two-thirds of the preceding 17.1% decline from the Apr
26 SPX high at 1220 down to its Jul 1 intraday low at 1012, will now be
likely followed by a much larger decline probably much closer to 30%, if not
Couple that with Robin Landry's outlook, the August 13 cycle turn in Robin
Handler's work (and scads of others edging toward the bearish side) I would sure
consider doing a switch of any money in stock funds into treasuries or money
markets till this sorts out. But THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - just what
I'd do with my own money.
FWIW I'm only 8% of personal M1 (cash, treasuries, gold, silver, stocks, etc) in
stocks and that's all on the short side. When the drop happens, I will
take dough off the table to get stocks back under 10% of personal M1.
If my outlook is right, we will drop to the 8,500 Dow range, then pop up to
9,500 or maybe 10,000 and then I may go in short with a higher percentage (20%)
expecting a triple there on the next leg down, but we shall see.
The economic long wave is alive and well. The tough decision for all
investors is staying in to play the potential train wreck, or flee to safety of
a TreasuryDirect account, bond fund, or money market. Your call, rotsa
Fed's no 'in the box' anything they do is going to be wrong and the market
declines to come will just amplify that concept.
The Gap Is Back
Statistical train wreck of the day? Balance of Trade report just out:
U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the
Department of Commerce, announced today that total June exports of $150.5
billion and imports of $200.3 billion resulted in a goods and services
deficit of $49.9 billion, up from $42.0 billion in May, revised. June
exports were $2.0 billion less than May exports of $152.4 billion. June
imports were $5.9 billion more than May imports of $194.4 billion.
June, the goods deficit increased $7.7 billion from May to $62.0 billion,
and the services surplus decreased $0.2 billion to $12.1 billion. Exports of
goods decreased $2.3 billion to $105.0 billion, and imports of goods
increased $5.4 billion to $167.0 billion. Exports of services increased $0.3
billion to $45.5 billion, and imports of services increased $0.6 billion to
goods and services deficit increased $22.8 billion from June 2009 to June
2010. Exports were up $22.6 billion, or 17.7 percent, and imports were up
$45.3 billion, or 29.2 percent.
Goods (Census basis)
May to June decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in capital
goods ($1.4 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($1.0 billion); and
foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.3 billion). Increases occurred in automotive
vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.2 billion); other goods ($0.2 billion); and
consumer goods ($0.1 billion).
May to June increase in imports of goods reflected increases in consumer
goods ($3.1 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.3
billion); other goods ($0.6 billion); and capital goods ($0.5 billion). A
decrease occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.2 billion).
Foods, feeds, and beverages were virtually unchanged.
Rather than write a thousand words about economic peril, try this simple picture
which summarizes my outlook:
March To War
Cruising for a Bruising?
The well-connected Middle East news service Debka.com has notes this morning on
how the USS Truman is being posted
opposite the Strait of Hormuz as the chance of war with Iran continues
Likely reason Israel (& the US) will attack Iran sooner than later may be found
in reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency report that Iran
has bumped its uranium
enrichment program up to the next level of purity - which means they
continue getting closer to weapons grade material.
Iran is throwing gasoline on itself with headlines like "we
have dug mass graves for your soldiers". WTF? For normally smart
people doesn't Iran have even a basic book on Western Public Relations tactics?
As we watch this develop, with a little knowledge of what predictive linguistics
look like this fall, seems we have two possible paths here: One would be
an Israeli-US preemptive attack late this month, in which case tghe global war
to follow (November 8-12'ish) would only last four days. OR, the
attack on Iran's nukes is carried out in the aforementioned November window and
that leaves the global nuking going on for 2½ in to
Pick your poison...
Not sure if that's a word, or just a concept, but
would you call backing a bunch of Iraqis who then turn tail and join up with al
Politics and Humanitarian Aid
Militants in Pakistan are trying a really hard sell:
Trying to keep
the 14-odd million impacted by floods from getting/accepting Western aid.
I've never been a fan of martyrdom, but even less so if it involves missing a
meal. I'm a big fan of repetitive tasks, too...
Ill Winds File
forest fires in Russia have now hit the contaminated lands around Chernobyl.
Reader note from Eastern Europe:
the " It may therefore contribute to the so-called secondary contamination
of populated areas outside the zone. In this case, the authorities
should notify residents as soon as possible risk areas and to consider the
possibility to take their deactivation or resettlement." section.
We have kinda nervous day here in Eastern
New Orleans Blow
National Weather Service has a warning out for a
tropical depression moving up out of the Gulf:
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION AND COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR
30 MPH...45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS
WEAKENED...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
We could use some rain up this way in East Texas,
too, but doesn't seem likely Tropical Depression Five will do anything...at
least for now.
This is Sick Dept.
Worse than MRSA? A
new 'superbug' has been found in Britain coming from India and it's got the
doctor types weirded out because there's nothing in the pipeline to treat it.
"Au contraire!" says the People's Economist. "End globalism and
turn off those 8-thousand mile supply lines....that's stop it cold..."
Of course, no one will listen - too much cash for the elites on the table.
Washington Drug Testing
Now that press spokeser
Robert Gibbs says leftwing critics of president Obama 'ought to be drug tested'
I don't suppose anyone would mind if everyone in Washington wad drug tested?
Seems to me that since many of us regular human types need to pee in a cup to
drive a truck, fly a plane, or whatever, that maybe the people who have a hand
in spending all of our damn money oughta be tested, too?
Hell, even publish all their personal financial information real-time, too.
What happened to transparency?
November yet? I've been punching holes in paper for the last two weeks
every time I read one of these political stories...
===== snip and save section =====
Wednesday at the WuJo
Those "Dimension Slippage" Reports
Part and parcel of the arrival of 2012, and it's accompanying woo-woo, I started
periodic postings a year, or so, back where we open up the mats down at the
intellectual Dojo (martial arts center) so that common sense & logic can do
battle with anomalous observed reality which every so often gets out of
place. We call it the WuJo. Woo-woo meets science.
A further reason for such discussion is my friend Clif over at
www.halfpasthuman.com [yes, he's
working on the long-term values sets for the next Shape of Things to Come"
reports that he produces, but don't ask me when again, or I'll slap you]
observed in the data he gathers about the future a whole bunch of oddities that
together form an ad-hoc data clump called 'space goat farts' - a kind of macro
bit bucket where oddities coming down the road are cast for later analysis.
All of which would be fine, and simply an artifact of processing, except that
there has been plenty of High strangeness (yeah, early,
poor puns is all I do till noon on Wednesdays) observed in this data that demands
rigorous intellectual inspection. Such a meta set of data within a larger
data set) manifested itself a while back which might be described as 'time
slips, TimeCreep, or the new word that encompasses the problem - hyperchronism,
which is so bothersome that
Clif posted a whole paper on it over here at his site. With me so far,
or do you find yourself clinging to that cup of coffee like an intellectual life
There's a problem within the weirdness that then comes along which was brought
to my attention two days ago with a PhD buddy up in Oklahoma who reported that not
only had he experienced the phenomena first-hand, but so had his daughter.
There seem to be two manifestations of 'dimensional slippage'. One where a
measurement 'known' good at one location, changes at another and maintains the
change when returned to the original location. OR, a second variant is
something of a known dimension at a specific location seems to become
elastic - either getting longer, or shorter, much to the consternation of
the humans involved.
This may sound like a whole lot of foreplay to get to the following reader
reports, but it's just damn interesting as I think you'll agree as we
review the submissions in response yo our call for reports.
Tinfoil hat on? OK, here we go...off to the mats in the WuJo...
George, I am a leadman at [deleted] Industries in a shop where we
build light poles, communication poles and such. Haven’t really noticed any
uptick in rejects, and our dimensions need to be within a 1/16th of an inch.
Actually the opposite has happened in the last 2 weeks. Hmmm, maybe everyone
has gotten used to the change?
Maybe its just barns. I’m in the process of
building a barn to hold my tractor and miscellaneous attachments. I asked
for a quote from a local construction company for the barn — the barn is to
be 30’ x 40’. They came out to look at where it goes and to drop some marker
flags on the corners of the barn so that we could get a building permit.
They measured and placed flags on the corners. We moved the barn once and
measured the corners a couple of more times before we were all happy with
the placement. It was my job to level out the ground before they could start
I got right to work with my John Deere 4320 with
the CX400 front loader and drug the foundation out flat, being careful to
leave the original flags in place till the very last few scoops of dirt.
Once removed them, I went back to measure and drive in some corner stakes.
Funny thing was, the pad that I dug was about 24’ x 30’ --> way off. The
thing is, two profession builders had measured and placed those original
flags that I used as guides to dig the pad with. I measured them as well.
How could the dimensions be off that much? Its easy to ‘see’ 6-10’ of error.
I’m an engineer by trade and I can normally guess distances within a couple
of inches. I’m totally baffled.
We had a similar experience with horse
equipment, but on Sunday. This was in Southwest NH. A friend & I ride her 2
horses at least once a week during the summer. Sunday I put on my helmet and
the fit was very tight. I loosened the chin strap and took it off/on several
times before giving up on it feeling right. I commented on it at the same
time that she noted the bridle on her horse wasn't fitting right. We
speculated on reasons: big hair, humidity changes in the air, but came to no
solid conclusion. I can't wait to tell her about the OK reader's experience.
[this is more a time-slip] George, it is crazy
that you mention this today. I was returning from a family emergency this
weekend and had a connection in Chicago. I landed around noon and had an
hour before my next flight. I went straight to the gate and got there
without any problems. It was about 20 minutes before I was to board my next
flight. I picked up a great new book, Glenn Beck’s Overton Window, and
started reading. Before I knew it it was 1:15pm and I’d missed my flight! In
all the years I’ve been flying I have NEVER missed a flight due to my own
mistake. I’ve missed connections before due to things outside of my control.
I never heard any announcements for my flight. I never saw any passengers
get up. I never heard the “Last call for Mr. XYZ” announcement for me. I
figure I lost about 15 minutes where I was completely zoned out. Well, I had
plenty of time to read now, and decided to time how long it took me to read
30 pages. It took about 30 minutes give or take. In the estimated 35 minutes
from the time I’d started reading to the time that I figured out where I
was, I’d read 22 pages. Just too weird.
Yesterday while pouring coffee from a fixed
volume coffee pot into a fixed volume carafe, which happens every morning, i
ended up with an extra half cup of water that would not fit into the coffee
pot. This morning, the carafe took all the water - my second cup is on the
Saturday my daughter found my ex’s measuring
tool (it’s for measuring wood and folds ups) I told her to put it back in
the garage and forgot about it. Sunday I find it broken in pieces…I was a
little annoyed but no big deal……..
Yesterday my nephew comes over and suddenly I
find him playing with my tape measure (no idea where he got it from) And he
BREAKS it. Not really a big deal…but something struck me as odd. No one ever
plays with tools etc b/c I keep them put away…suddenly two down in three
I come in and read your site today and voila. I
can only take a stab at what it means…the grids are “breaking” or perhaps
the distance or separation between levels is going to “break”.
The golden rule of carpentry, "Measure twice cut
once" hasn't worked well for me either these days. Glad it's not just my
And here I thought I was going completely out of
my mind. I was putting in some new floors for our rabbit cages a couple of
weeks ago, ½” plywood just cut to size and slide them in - no problem. My
dad was an industrial arts teacher and taught me how to measure twice cut
once ever since I was 5 and it’s always stuck with me. Anyway I cut the
three floors out and they were all a ½” too long…hmmm. Now here’s the
strange part, I cut the ½” off and low and behold they were still ½” too
long…WTF! At this point company arrived and I put everything down and
declared work in progress, when I returned later I cut off the ½” again and
everything fit perfectly. Next project was Sunday evening, put a wall mount
kit up for the flat screen TV. Measure for the stud center, drill a pilot
hole and yup about 1” off the stud. Second try was bang on. Now I know I can
blame Universe for my incompetence. Glad to know I’m only half way out of my
Hi from Costa Rica,
On Tuesday August 3 I measured four pieces of 1
x 2 inch metal to reinforce a greenhouse roof in my garden. I remember I was
annoyed that all four pieces were different because the people who
originally built the greenhouse had made it so out-of-square, and measured
several times to make sure the pieces would exactly fit between the existing
roof structure. I had the pieces cut to measure at a local hardware store
and rechecked my measurements before I left. When the welders came later
that day to do the work, I was extremely embarrassed because all four pieces
were approximately 1 inch longer! My wife was entertained by such a stupid
error but neither the workers, nor I thought it was so funny.
Ok, George, my mouth dropped open this morning
while reading your report about measurements changing! Over the past several
weeks I've experienced a problem with a simple measurement, and it's had me
thinking I was either losing my mind or going blind.
I recently finished building a new stand-alone
garage, and since I live in southeast Kansas where temperatures go to both
extremes, I wanted to install a window air conditioner/heater unit. Simple,
right? Well, I go out and measure the opening in the window (15" x 30"),
then get online and start looking for units that will fit my window. I found
one at Sears that I thought would be perfect, but before ordering it I
thought I should measure the window again just to be sure. My second
measurement was 15" x 33", and I thought WTF? So I go back inside and make
sure the AC I had picked out would still fit, and it would, but at this
point I've really begun to question myself, so I go out and measure again
before placing the order. This time I get 14.75" x 29.5", and it's at that
point I think I've completely forgotten how to read a tape measure, so I ask
my wife to come out and watch me measure again. With her watching, I get 15"
x 30". We write down the measurements and go back inside, then come back out
in a couple of hours to measure again.....14.5" x 30.5". I still haven't
ordered the damn AC because I'm afraid of my tape measure! George, I'm a 56
year old with an engineering degree, and had just finished building a new
garage from scratch, with no known errors. Until reading your report this
morning I thought I was really losing it!
individually, each of these reports seems to be explainable. But taken as
a whole - plus the time and physical location slips - there's the outline of a
new class of phenomenology. Seems to involve place,
measure, and time in the very limited sense that we 'know' it.
Might involve animals of one type, or other, too, since in a couple of cases
horses were involved. Horses as
consorts of a larger
reality? Kinda like black cats (like Zeus)?
phenomena (dimension slips) seems like it may apply on any number of 'axes' of
reality; height, width, breath, time/persistence. Yet, it's also subtle.
Nevertheless, we may have caught a 'wave' here in the past week.
there may be more evidence of waves ( of a 1.5 to 2-week duration) staring us
right in the face. It's just because we don't specifically look at
supposedly random data since we assume there'd be no point, since our
perception limits our ability to see. Show yuou what I mean in
this email from a fellow with a high-end audio company out in Portland, Oregon:
"Other than my beltline, I have no dimensional
disparity to report.
I do, however want to comment on a trend I have
noticed in my line of work. What I call Failure Waves, lasting about 1.5 to
I answer tech support phone calls as part of my
duties here at the audio company. We make and sell amps and speakers for
home audio. The tech support calls come from all over the country and they
come in waves.
I am right now in the middle of a “intermittent
failure” wave. I get call after call where my trouble shooting and
explanations are the same, over and over. Right now people are calling
because their amp is cutting out for no reason. We go over reason X, no,
then Y, no, then Z, no. So far about 10 of these in the last week, out of
about 20 calls.
Different models, different circuit topology,
different areas in the country, different factories in China, different
build dates (by years!) essentially the same exact failure and same exact
trouble shoot to diagnose it, with no connection other than the call to me.
Other recent “waves”: Fuse waves- where the amps
have fuses blowing and for some reason nobody knows what a Timed Action fuse
is. EQ waves- where every audiophile with one of our EQ’s calls about the
silliest complaints like a bad LED on a slider. No Question waves- where a
preponderance of the calls are from guys who know what they are doing, yet
call for really simple advice.
You’d think that solar storms or summer heat
might explain some of these trends, yet, the EQ wave had no real
geo-significance other than freaky audiophiles from around the world all
called in a 2 week span regarding their older equipment and their
“perceived” problems. I haven’t had an EQ call in months."
been senior VP of an international jet airline, we always worried about aircraft
accidents which seemed to come in threes. Was this more than just a
speculation in the airline industry? Might it relate to failure
well documented that 'waves' arising from unknown causes impact sales
departments, since I've managed groups of people with very accurately measured
(via sales reports) waves of sales going high and then a sales drought.
Yet, in each case, it was - as best I could eliminate it - not a function of the
salespeople. It was a function of something else.
runs of numbers occur and give the appearance of some organizing principle
just beyond our perception? Of course. In fact so much so that
Thomas Gilovitch's book How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
is still selling well at Amazon nearly 10-years after publication.
really hard question is at what point does Gilovitch's work (applied statistics
and variances) become a cover-up for a deeper and well-hidden
intuitive sense when you think about it: The near Holy 2-standard
deviations in statistics may result at a profound level as evidence that we
are nothing more than energy patterns (I assume you saw
The Matrix, right?) and
that those two standard deviations we hold so dear (along with its ugly
normal distribution) are nothing more than seriously contrived
mathematical excuses because at some level we took a bad turn in our
understanding of the world and only a few geniuses like Maxwell were able to
pierce the veil of that finer level of thinking to get past what now stand as
nearly insurmountable barriers.
What becomes apparent to researchers like Tom Bearden who are looking for 'free
energy applications' from the missing works (see:
http://www.cheniere.org/ ) is
that there's an inconsistency between James Maxwell's original works and the
Heaviside reinterpretation (along with William Gibbs) of Maxwell's original
work, which is discussed
in greater depth at the Enterprise Mission website of Richard Hoagland.
All of which goes far afield from the problem of our missing measurements and
'failure waves' but when the broad expanse of 'odd stuff' pops up in emails -
day after day - it's hard not to openly speculate a bit. Here's
another one - related but this one is in the class of 'location slippage':
have a 3,000 gallon pond in my back yard in Lincoln, Nebraska (not
earthquake central). My brother dug up reeds from a creek and planted them
in a 5-gallon bucket that I put directly into my pond in a place where the
reeds would be growing out of the water, but you cannot see the bucket. This
5-gallon bucket with soil and gravel covering the soil where the reeds are
growing is placed on a level portion of my pond.
I have to literally go into the pond and move
this bucket if I want the reeds to be in another place in my pond. There is
NO WAY this bucket can 'slide' to another location.
I have sat since MAY of this year, in the same
chair at my patio table in the evenings enjoying my fish swim and in and out
through the reeds.
Yesterday in the evening, I once again sat down
in my patio chair and observed my REED BUCKET was now in a different
location in my pond!
I am a single 60 year old woman who designed and
built my pond and I know that pond like the palm of my hand. I wanted to
call one of my four adult children and tell them about my reed bucket being
in a different place - but, they would have thought I had totally lost my
place slippage is NOT something confined to this woman's backyard pond in
Lincoln, Nebraska, although I'm sure she's a bit freaked about it. The
phenomena has been studied at famous places for such oddities, such as
moving rocks at the "Racetrack Playa" in Death Valley, written up over
suppose that there's a logical reason for these rocks to move. Maybe
micrometeorological effects, but no, that would leave soil disturbances and none
are seen. Or, maybe it's just that 'all the molecules gathered on one side
of the rock' however briefly and moved it, because under statistics, we
could argue that would be an extremely improbable event, yet perhaps
here we step back off the mat and look at our two combatants: Our visual
and other sensory inputs versus our application of mathematics & statistics to
complete the reductionist's illusion that all's well-ordered in Universe,
and as such, may be completely known and understood.
Sitting here with an MBA I'm supposed to have a fair comprehension of
statistics, and yes, I suppose I have an idea how they work. But I've also
read enough reports of when they don't work to realize that there may
be something else going on. Maybe statistics is the "science" by which
we blind ourselves to that 'something else' that's going on.
Maybe - just maybe - statistical deviations are not measuring 'probability' as
we currently define it. Maybe they measure 'reality noise' which is a
different concept indeed. If that were to be the case, until "science"
opens its collective head up a bit more to encompass that concept, we'll be
stuck here we are, unable to get much further.
Maybe there are no 'standard deviations' from the properly perceived whole of
the Total Reality which we know to be only energy. I'll grant you
that it seems to work most of the time but always? Maybe no.
Perhaps at the level where statistics becomes secondary to observer expectations
Schrödinger's cat for example) we'll find the next set of tools to move
forward as humans.
Or, maybe it's already been found - which would explain the power of certain
secret societies...maybe through rituals and what normal folks would label as
deviant behaviors, they can so dramatically impact observer expectation sets
that they can occasionally override 'statistical probabilities'. Or,
worse, statistics has been invented to hide a powerful aspect of reality from
the masses. Which would explain why Heaviside had to rework Maxwell,
Tuesday August 10, 2010
We start with the text...Read 'em and weep...
Release Date: August 10, 2010
For immediate release Information received since
the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of
recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household
spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high
unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.
Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment
in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain
reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level.
Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee
anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a
context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely
to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.
Measures of underlying inflation have trended
lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to
restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable,
inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for
the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that
economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued
inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant
exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
To help support the economic recovery in a
context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal
Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting
principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in
longer-term Treasury securities.1 The Committee will continue to roll over
the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.
The Committee will continue to monitor the
economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools
as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were:
Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard;
Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren;
Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig,
who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected.
Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of
exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period
was no longer warranted and limits the Committee's ability to adjust policy
when needed. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr.
Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal
Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was
required to support a return to the Committee's policy objectives.
Quick - look surprised! The market, which was down about 106 by the
Dow just before the announcement, popped up to about -35 briefly and now seems
to be headed back down, but wait, coming back...but wait.... Sadly for the
rational: this is a "Who knows?" world and the safest way to play is to stand on
the sidelines and let the craziness of markets run amuck.
I apologize (or nearly so) for the earlier headline "ream 'em and weep" - really
meant to write 'read 'em and weep". Sometimes truth just leaks unintended.
So the faction going for the free money to set up a dollar gold carry trade
lost. Now what?
Don't Go Blaming China
Lots of stories about this morning
hinting that one reason for a bit of overnight weakness in markets is
a small slow-down in China's growth. What's really going on seems to be FOREX
traders dropping anti-dollar bets a bit on the thinking the Fed session
today will be good for markets.
Which gets us around to the
900-pound gorilla: Drop by this afternoon at about 1:20 PM Central time
for the first post of the Fed decision and probably a wise-ass comment, or two,
about 1:30 Central aftert we begin to see market reaction.
I think it was
Rick Ackerman who safely observed a
number of years ago that if the market moves in reaction to a Fed decision,
you'll usually see an initial move in the longer-term direction.
Then, the market will pause and go the other way briefly as the pro's load up
for the larger move, and then the real trend move will get underway. Not
always, but Rick's an astute guy and he's been a trader, so I've always taken
that to heart. No point expecting anything to change in how the mechanics
of the announcement work out.
As to what the Fed has to
say, that'll be the hard part. The Boston Globe has a good story on it
under the headline "Weak
recovery challenges Fed" - but that's a pretty generous assumption being
made about 'recovery'; namely that there is one.
About the biggest change I've seen
in the Fed is that Alan Greenspan used the word "judgment" a lot, while the
Bernanke Fed seems to favor the word "estimate". Might seem like a fine
point but lingo/lango is a subtle framer. If Greenspan made judgments, the
framing is that he was somehow a fit 'judge'. "Estimate" on the other hand
is close to "guesser".
If you have a copy of The Visual Thesaurus, Version 3
you can visualize "estimate" this way:
Not to run the point into the
ground, but Greenspan's 'judging' brought with it words like evaluate, decide,
adjudicate, pronounce, and gauge. A junior wordsmith in training, I'd sure
like to see Bernanke et al get more into "gauge" since that would be compatible
with works like 'determine', measure, quantify, ascertain, caliber, bore; or the
word assess which is associated to words like tax, bill, charge, and what the
Fed's cohorts are all about up on the Hill.
Futures are down but productivity
is dropping (next story), so don't go blaming China.
A couple of 'last minute' numbers
for the Fed to ponder going into today's FOMC meeting: Productivity just
business sector labor productivity decreased at a 0.9 percent annual rate
during the second quarter of 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today, with output and hours rising 2.6 percent and 3.6 percent,
respectively. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally
adjusted annual rates.) The decline in output per hour follows five quarters
of strong productivity growth. The second-quarter gain in hours worked was
the largest since the first quarter of 2006 when hours rose 4.1 percent.
From the second quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2010, both
productivity and output increased 3.9 percent; hours were unchanged (tables
A and 2).
Labor productivity, or output per hour, is
calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked
of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.
Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses edged up
0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2010, the result of productivity
declining more than hourly compensation. Over the last four quarters, unit
labor costs fell 2.8 percent as output per hour increased faster than hourly
compensation (tables A and 2).
BLS defines unit labor costs as the ratio of
hourly compensation to labor productivity; increases in hourly compensation
tend to increase unit labor costs and increases in output per hour tend to
Boy, that's sure exciting, isn't
it? Why just has me on the edge of my chair waiting for Q3 numbers
in...er....November? My butt will get sore waiting, for
Later on this morning, wholesale
inventories will be announced and the big question will be ,"How much
sell-through?" Answer, just based on the uptick in Consumer Debt figures
out last week shouldn't be too bad, but still down compared with previous year
While Time magazine is asking in a
China's bad summer make it clean up it's act?" I've got to note that
the death toll in China is only around 700 with 1200-odd still missing.
But in terms of human impacts,
the UN say Pakistan flooding has impacted almost 14-million people so far
and no, no reliable death estimates yet, but we've been watching this unfold on
the foreign video services and it's possible Pakistan's losses (over
1,500 so far) will far surpass China's.
And Pakistan's president Zardari
is getting a lot of heat for being out of pocket traveling instead of leading
calling it Zardari's Katrina some places.
All of which circles back to our
theme of the day: Don't blame China.
Going Bump In the Night
A 7.3 quake down in Vanuatu.
Russia's fires continue edging toward more nuclear facilities.
A great reader email:
We're basically in a media
blackout (effectively) concerning anything really meaningful, so here's a
snapshot of what's really going on in the world:
August 9: Katla Volcano,
Iceland - Twelve earthquakes in the past 48 hours.
August 9: Deadly Russian
Heat Wave Gravest Over Millennium
August 6: Sacramento
running 10 degrees below average
August 5: Snow in Brazil,
below zero in the River Plate, tropical fish frozen. For a second day
running it snowed in Southern Brazil and in twelve of Argentina’s 24
provinces including parts of Buenos Aires.
August 3: Coolest July in
San Francisco since 1971
August 3: More than six
million fish and thousands of alligators, turtles, dolphins and other
river wildlife are floating dead in Bolivian rivers, the cruel aftermath
of the extreme cold in South America.
August 3: Argentina colder
August 1: Peru declares
state of emergency
August 1: Worst flooding
in Pakistan history
July 31: July rainiest
month in Mexico history
July 29: Record cold in
July 10: Record cold at LAX
Hard sell in Moscow, though.
Good To Be Bad?
HP CEO Mark Hurd will get a payday of around $40-million after stepping down
over revelations about expense reports and a female contractor and allegations
of sexual harassment. But I wonder how much will be left after the lawyering on
When In Doubt:
Time to Leave?
Reports that space/math
whiz Steven Hawking figures its time to head for space, or perish on the limited
earth has me scratching my head.
Seems to me if there was anything
like a Galactic EPA, they'd confine us to Earth as toxic waste generating bad
Why, if we can't get along here
with one another, what evidence do you suppose exists to support the notion we
could get along with three-legged Rumpoons from GaZonik 3? Let alone a
Klingon? Just differences of color and religion will get you killed most
places, let alone if you had a couple of extra ears, or something...let alone
some vision of the future and a relation with Universe that's not in the 'right'
Look: We can't even trust white,
majority, overweight democorps and republicorps in the same room without a
special prosecutor on standby most of the time or they screw us all -
six-ways to Sunday - for corporate payoffs via under-the-table bidding and the
ubiquitous campaign contributions and sleazy PAC money...
What the hell is Hawking thinking?
Pollute Earth, then the Solar System and let's see if we can wreck the whole
As below, so above, but making
more slaves to get the PTB off the rock and leave the rest of us here as
collateral damage? Bullshit - Screw that... meek and righteous first?
Well, THEN maybe...but that ain't never gonna happen no how so let's no
kid the kidder, here.
Near as I got it figured, The UFO
Dudes would have told Ike & others at the Big Visits in the 50's: "Ya'll
are welcome...just as soon as ya got'cher shit together...but we ain't holding
our breath...We've sent representatives from On High before and look at what you
did to all them."
Can't say they'd be wrong,
neither. We'd do the same thing again...
61-year into it, I see people
working harder than ever and less progress than in the 1950's through 60's.
But somehow the power trippers keep us on this rock, more sparklies, more debt.
"We'll put a palm sized microwave in every cell phone...and next year a beer
cooler..." and other useless features and we just suck it up. sheep.
Lock up our food? Shoot the
real change agents? Foment revolution? Profit from death?
That's us...makes you proud to be an Earthling, huh?
one of Jack Lessinger's econ books,
there's a brilliant summary of
Decameron Tales that goes to the idea of "Those trying 'escape
the plague take it with them..." We could argue, I suppose, over whether
space in the equivalent of the countryside at the time of the Black Death.
But it's like I told Elaine the other
night: "The first victims of any war ought to be those promoting it."
Might clean up the playing field a bit.
Getting off this rock is just the new
giant-sized & improved version of running away from
the ugly reality we have only to hold ourselves accountable for. Maybe Hawking's
missed the point.
One day, more than just the few of us
might wake up and look this Life in the eye and call it what it is. When
that happens, why, we might even get invited off this rock.
===== Snip and Save Section ====
Coping: Quality of
The other morning I reported on the pressure one of the bigger for-profit
schools was under and opined that for-profit schools are held to a different
standard than the not-for-profit and state-funded schools. As a result, I
received a very thoughtful email which is worthy of your notice:
I read your post today on the for-profit schools
coming under threat due to government funding changes in higher education,
and thought I'd comment since I currently work for public, private and
propriety schools as an adjunct instructor.
The current state of most for-profit schools is
horrendous. In the past I worked in administration as an academic advisor
for a for-profit art school. The recruiting techniques used by the
enrollment advisors were criminal. I would say about 35% of the students
enrolled had no hope of graduating. One of my jobs was to read over the
entrance essays and gauge potential students writing skills. If I sent an
essay back to the enrollment advisor with a poor score, I would get a new
one back a day or so later that was magically the best essay I had ever read
- as far as entrance essays go. It was very easy to tell that the recruiter
wrote the essay.
Recruiters were pressured to get bodies in seats
to keep their jobs. Though it is illegal, their pay was definitely tied to
their numbers. The recruiters were only responsible for the student for a
week after classes started, and then it became the job of the Academic
Affairs department to keep the student. Of course, if the student was not
qualified to be a student, there was no way we could keep them. If students
dropped, we took the blame.
I now work as an instructor for another
proprietary school. While it's not Kaplan, it is one of their major
competitors. I would say that a good 40% of the students have no hope of
obtaining their degree. These students are so ill prepared for college, that
the school just instituted a first year sequence for them. This would be
great, except that this first year consists of courses most of us took by
the 6th grade. I took the training course so I would be able to teach these
classes, and found that subjects being taught were all things I learned by
the time I left grade school. The sad thing is, these students need it
because their grade schools and high schools failed them.
The propriety schools should not be accepting
these students at all. It would be one thing if they acknowledged they were
trade schools, but because many of these schools have obtained regional
accreditation status, they need to start acting like regionally accredited
schools. Had they stayed with their national accreditation, they wouldn't be
under this pressure today. Students would then only have to do well in their
desired trade rather than worry about a well rounded liberal arts education.
I think the main trouble is the perception of
education in the US. There are students that are well suited for liberal
arts and students that are well suited for trade schools. There's no shame
or higher glory in either of those. Both are needed in our society. For some
reason, it's in our heads that trade schools aren't as good as liberal arts
schools. You currently need a bachelor's degree from a regionally accredited
school to get the simplest of jobs. This means you have to take on huge debt
for schooling for a very low return on pay after graduation. This is absurd,
and it makes me wonder if there is some agreement between the new job
criteria most business impose that requires a college degree and higher
Propriety schools also boast their job rates
after graduation. I think if they advertise this, which they all do, then
they need to deliver. The art school I worked for had an excellent career
center and help graduates find work for life. While it was becoming more
difficult for them when I left in 2008, I can attest that they were doing
all they could within reason to help. The art school maintained close ties
with the business community and even had groups where the chairs from the
departments met with hiring businesses to discuss new industry standards and
what they're looking for in new graduates. Courses, projects and equipment
were updated to meet what graduates needed to obtain jobs. This is
reasonable and responsible to me.
Unfortunately, this is not what goes on with the
propriety school I currently work for today. The curriculum is static.
Because the classes are all predesigned, you can go on the internet and find
websites where students can purchase entire classes for $10. Plagiarism is
so pandemic, I have resorted to using the plagiarism software for every
single student paper I receive, which adds hours on to my workload. The
school does not get input from the instructors or from businesses that will
later hire (or reject rather) these students. It is so machine like, that
there is no room for bending. I don't even know who I actually report to,
and I've been with this school for three years. I only continue teaching for
them because there are very few jobs out there for higher ed teachers today.
I have to work for three different schools, teaching 5-6 classes per session
(anywhere from 7-10 weeks), in order to survive. For some reason, our
society values education very highly, but not the people who actually
Proprietary schools willfully jumping into the
liberal arts gig was a bad idea. You simply can't mix liberal arts with
corporatism and get a good result. Students become nothing but a consumer,
and the bottom line is in direct conflict with the best interest of the
I can tell you without at doubt in my mind, that
the state and private non-profit schools I work for have a much higher
quality in education. Teachers maintain academic freedom and the curriculum
is far more rigorous and dynamic. I also don't think that state and private
non-profit schools should be tied to job statistics, as the purpose of the
college and university is for students to obtain knowledge and become free
thinkers, not learn how to get a job and be a good employee (though it may
be going in that direction...). Proprietery schools, on the other hand, are
specifically training students for future employment. It's apples and
Thanks for reading,
No, than YOU for writing. Understanding the higher ed situation is
incredibly important, especially since the federal application for student aid (FAFSA)
is way more intrusive than anything else government does except maybe for
a top secret security clearance, LOL. It's more binding than a mortgage.
Student loans are much more dangerous than mortgages since you walk away from a
mortgage but not from a student loan.
As a former proprietary school president, I closely watched the transition take
place and while many of the sins of the 'for-profits' you note are real, we also
have to be honest and recognize that the other side of the coin is the state-run
schools are vastly more expensive in ways that are invisible to most. Just
for example, for-profit schools pay B&O taxes and, if they own property, they
pay property taxes on it.
On the public side, there's no property tax, no B&O tax, and in many states the
true cost of facilities is buried because building funds are sometimes
not included in the cost of delivering the education. Just an
As I see it, all the schools are guilty of the same kind of
'over-building' that we saw in the housing industry. The NFP's (not for
profits) and state schools claiming people go to school to get 'educated' but if
you ask most students on a state or NFP campus (I have) why they are in this
particular state or NFP school, and they invariably answer "So I can get a job."
This wrong-headed concept (that job equals going to college) is ground into
young people's heads all the way from kindergarten to the senior prom. And
I'll admit to being a little prejudiced here, since I started working in my
profession (broadcast engineering) at age 16 and didn't finish a degree until my
30's. But that provided me with an incredibly valuable lesson:
Employers don't hire pieces of paper, they hire people who can do a
job. The current system has a terrible education problem laying that
simple truth out for people, especially when there's a dearth of jobs to be had
regardless of one's level of education.
The number of over-50, majority males with MBA's (just to throw a dart at
myself) is staggering these days. The MBA - once a ticket to a solid
six-figures - is now just a check-off; nearly a dime a dozen.
The hidden reality of which educators don't speak is that employers are into
least-cost solutions for all kinds of workers and neither the publics nor
for-profits adequately explain the modern jobs battlefield, let alone discussing
outsourcing. The fact is this: Today's graduates are competing with
much cheaper China, India, and Singfapore labor. Instead US students and
parents are pitched yesterday's paradigm - trying to 'spin' the
prospective student to their course offerings.
One of the drivers (again with the disclosure I was a for-profit manager) was
that the private schools did bang-up job training but the government then
failed to deliver expected narrow vertical market job growth to their own
forecasts and the broader overall economic growth forecast itself stalled out -
which is what the for-profits built out facilitates for. Let me see: High
fixed costs, Jobs placement stats crashing...the ONLY survival strategy was to
move to the liberal arts pool where job placement was NOT the key metric.
Is it any wonder they went to regional accreditation and 'degrees' in order to
slide out of the strict curriculum to placement job accountability which state
and NFP schools already enjoyed? Nope: That's just how survival strategies
evolved in the complex higher ed market with multiple options for students.
W sincerely appreciate your report from the front line. That said,
in my judgment public higher education has escaped the economic scalpel
much more effectively than, for example, tradespersons in the housing sector and
assembly workers in Detroit.
Yet even with the tricky accounting, which often doesn't include the longer
terms costs of retirement liabilities, property removed from tax rolls, the
'building funds' along with higher property taxes and so forth, the public
school's tuition has pretty consistently managed to blow the doors off
the prevailing rate of inflation in most communities.
What evolved into complexity from various socioeconomic forces - especially the
echo Baby Boomers hitting prime demographics for enrollment - precipitated the
present mess. My guess is it is now almost certain to implode as there's
not room for several economic models when each is overbuilt thanks to the feds
not having a reasonable method to allocate between models. It's been a
free-for all at the student aid funding office with each claiming highest
economic performance. As you noted so rightly in your email tag line:
"Entropy requires no maintenance." I think that ship left port long ago.
The solution comes back to the core issue of a lack of leadership at the
national level, and with that, the lack of a National Vision that we can
all stand up and salute.
What we need is the commitment to new infrastructure and a national fiber plan
that could remake America. Toss in a commitment to the 25-hour work week,
retiring at 60, not 65, so the oldsters will make more room at the bottom...and
so on. A commitment to a solid dollar not watered down each year doesn't
seem like a bad idea, either. Just for good measure, let's toss in a commitment
to solvent national, state, and city governments. Would we have healthcare
taxes if we slowed down our war-making by, say, 50%?
Until that kind of fundamental rethinking happens, there can not be an
economic recovery. Plain & simple. Schools can only prepare people for
the workforce. Political leadership's responsibility is to articulate a
set of core values, outline the New Vision that we can all get behind and
in which society there will be a demand for both liberal arts and
the skilled tradespersons. If the New Vision was real, there's be a
website we could all look at that would benchmark our progress. T'ain't no
Unfortunately, our political leadership has failed miserably which is how we got
into this mess in the first place. It's the stuff Second Depressions are
made of. And it's why depressions last 10-year or longer.
Them "Holes" in the Web
You may recall that in Monday's
column I mentioned that I was wondering who else - besides one reader in Oz who
mentioned it - was not able to reach Shane Connor's site,
www.ki4u.com? Wow - what an eye-opener...
"Ok well I tried to go to site
and no such luck ,so it seems that yes we are censored. "
"As you requested, i'm in Oz
and yes, ki4u.com fails to load. It has an unusual timeout pattern when
attempting contact. Even after running a few network diagnostics, the
packets seem to go nowhere. I can access it through an anonymous proxy
server tho. And now that i can see it, i do remember looking at this site
about a year ago after following a link from urban survival. Which means
this blockage is somewhat recent. "
Good on whoever picked up on
this. I wonder what else the bastards are hiding."
"I'm a subscriber from the
wonderful land of Oz and I have too have tried to access the ki4u.com site
on a number of occasions without any success. I keep getting a message that
the 'server where the page is located isn't responding'. Doesn't matter what
time of day or night I try I can't get through (and I tried again just
before sending this message). I've also noticed in the last couple of weeks
that access to the internet is generally getting slower (with the exception
of the mindless drivel on celebrity gossip sites and the time wasting mind
numbing games such as 'farmville' and 'cafe whatever' via facebook)"
"Can't access it either, oddly
"I live in Western Australia.
Just right clicked on Shane Connor's site, and it didn't work. Then I opened
a new webpage, and typed in the address, and it opened. "
"The connection to the server
was reset while the page was loading."
"I am an Australian reader and
cannot access directly www.ki4u.com
and the goodnews page as well but can access both through google cache.
Thank you so much for the heads up on this. What is the government up to?"
"No go on the above sight
either George..... [name withheld] from Sydney oz"
"I also can't access the ki4u
site in Australia. Seems censorship is happening."
"No joy in Melbourne"
"Hello from Kathmandu Nepal,
cant open www.ki4u.com/goodnews.htm from here as well."
"I cannot access the ki4u site
All of which leads us to wonder
whether the blocking is being done by Australia which has
at least two blacklists of banned web sites, or whether the blocking
is being done by our own US government. I raise this latter possibility
not only because of the Nepal and Ecuador reports, but others like this one:
"George, Just for your info. I
can only access their site when I disable my hong kong proxy & use my real
usa proxy. I know other world proxy will work, but not sure which ones they
So, if couldn't get to the
www.ki4u.com site yesterday - and you still
can't today and you'd like to help with our
research, please open a command lined, type in at what's usually the c:>
prompt, type in tracert www.ki4u.com
[enter] and let the computer do its thing. Should give you where the time
outs are occurring. Paste it into an email and send a copy to
webmaster (at sign) ki4u.com That will facilitate drilling down to
find...well, whatever they find.
Shane Connor who owns
www.ki4u.com BTW doesn't think the problem is on
the US side:
"We have a very, very robust
server set-up. Here's the bottom line: We have eight servers
with load balancing and we're set up to handle advertising hits from the
Drudge Report and other high traffic sites. So I know it's not on our
I'll skip the hot lingo part and
leave that to other sites. But our UrbanSurvival readers are catching the odd scent
of something more than 'normal' 'business-as-usual' in the wind...help
from Australians who are blocked - specifically, the trace route function
reports - will really help.
'Nuff to weird you out yet?
Well, let's go down the rabbit hole just a wee bit further, shall we? Might be all
kinds of critters down there...
Ah...here's another nifty outlier
from the email dept.:
"What the linguistics has in
the works for November matches up scarily with the weird slide show
that telegraph.co.uk posted to it's website without explanation in early
2009. Clif says the PTB show their hand before they play it, was this
their wink to us? "
By the time you get through
watching the 5-part 'Blackjack" series, you no doubt will be able to come
up with your own set of guesses why certain interest groups would not want we
the people to have their own radiation measuring devices, radiation treatment
options, or knowledge about civil defense. Knowledge is power, and power
trippers aren't anxious to share power.
Yeah, nuclear war is ugly, and
radiation poisoning is not the best way to go, but then again, nothing comes to
mind as a 'best way' to die except going to sleep and not waking up...But the
fear mongering around the topic of nukes and Shane's company being a no-nonsense here's
the facts, tools, and such...that might be stepping on an agenda
Might even explain why - under
color of law -
legal websites are so readily banned by those who have made a deal with the
devil and their payment due is the further theft of life, liberty, and the pursuit of
happiness from few good and free humans left in the world.
OK, if UrbanSurvival now
disappears, remember the following alternate access methods:
(our SSL layer)
new .co site addressing)
The content mirror at
or the mobile page at
or the archives at the
And if all that fails, send
me an email and we'll email the daily report after we find the blockage so we
can get our legal folks on it.
Pants On Fire?
Making the rounds on the net at
the moment? Video of our president says in this YouTube video:
betraying what I think is a solemn pact that we make with our veterans.
My father served in World War II and when he came home, he got the services
that he needed..."
All of which is fine until you
work out the facts (this'll frost yah...)., His father,
Barack Obama, Sr
was born in 1936...so one might ask "How'd he serve in WWII if he was five
years old when the war broke out?
his stepfather Lolo Soetoro
who was...check it out - born in 1935 so he was six years old when the
I'm sure someone has explained
this somewhere under "the Presid3ent misspoke..." about his own Dad?
Or, is this a re-edit of the event? Or...WTF?
The right/left politics are
amazing, aren't they? Up down is what matters, try to keep that in mind...
And was that video overdubbed?
several readers say
it was a misspeak about his grandfather.
Tuesday At the WuJo
But wait! It gets even
Oh yeah: A buddy (PhD type) calls from
Oklahoma and asks "You been noticing anything strange about measurements
"Like tape measures and such?
Hmmm...No, can't say as I have...just the usual hyperchronism /time getting
shifty stuff. Why?" This gets deep here...
Well, I was finishing up a
barn for our horses (Oklahoma, right?) and I noticed all day Saturday I was
making measurements and careful as I was - even measuring 3 & 4 times, I was
coming up coming out with things like 4-by-4's which were off by about an
inch! You know, needed 13 7/8th and I was cutting 14 7/8th -
consistently and after measuring 3-4 times!
Not only that but my
daughter's new horse whose bridle is normally on the 2nd hole on the buckle?
It was on the 4th Saturday and she was really upset about that.... I
know, I know, I told her she was doing something different in how she was
putting it on, but she's in 7th grade and she's been putting bridles on
horses for years and all of a sudden, one day, the bridle doesn't
fit....and here's the really strange part... I tried it too and she was
"Can't get much stranger than
"Oh, it does!...I tried it
myself and the next day guess what? It was back on the second hole
and the difference was about an inch...same problem I was having with the
barn roof 4-by-4's!
So not only is there
this hyperchronism stuff Clif has been writing about, but there may
be something going on dimensionally, too."
We then had a conversation about
how things are really starting to change in the world.
Question of the Day: If you
have noticed any drift of measurements cases, pleaser send them along - weird
thing, but worth keeping track of...seems if time can get wonky, no reason why
dimensions can't too...
Send along reports here.
You know, if we're going to 'cross
dimensions' somewhere around 2012 wouldn't it be interesting if all kinds of
elasticity of time & dimensions takes place? Hot/cold, long/short, in/out/
and time? Hmmm...
Maybe I'll just get out my UV LED
diodes and function generator and make my own time warp...very Rocky Picture
Horror Show of me....let's do the time warp again...
So Sunday evening, Panama, Elaine,
& I are looking for an oldie but goodie after-din-din movie to watch off NetFlix
while the spaghetti settled down and the red wine went to work on it (none
for Bates, tho...).
"Panama, you even seen Billy
"Yes, I have..."
"I wouldn't mind seeing it again,
one of these days...." We went on to something else (old Dean Martin
Matt Helm flick with Anee Strumpet).
Fast forward to Monday morning and
the mail - an envelope with a couple of audio CD's and a single DVD in a box
with a note from reader "Joe in Colorado". "if you already have this pass
it on - if not , then enjoy!"
You guessed it...the lone DVD was
the movie Billy Jack...which we didn't have in our collection...thank
This was just outright weird...but
then again, anymore, I'm not sure what weird is...
Monday August 9, 2010
Numerous reports from the
Northeast have it that
nationally recognized energy investment banker Matthew Simmons died of a
reported 'heart attack while in a hot tub' this weekend.
Those with a good memory may
wonder about the timing of this since Simmons on multiple occasions announced
that there were other seabed leaks some distance from the BP spill in the
Is This Where "We Blow It"?
Tomorrow is a biggie - the Federal
Reserve will be meeting to talk about rates amidst headlines like "Fed
set to downgrade outlook for US" and our own "Unemployment:
WTF? Unchanged???" As usual, tomorrow afternoon I'll post the
Fed FOMC rate decision and their notes, but the odds of the Fed actually
lowering rates is unlikely because to do so would be a tactic admission that
the stimulus hasn't worked and that rates near zero will be the only way to kick
start the economy into a high enough level of job creation to prevent the
wholesale removal of Congress and a large chunk of the Senate this fall.
To be sure, it's a close call.
The right wing has been having a field day with
Michelle Obama & kids are off doing Spain and lunching with the royals, with
big headlines about how much that is costing US taxpayers. Today,
the president will be in Austin, Texas talking about higher education and to do
a little fund-raising. (Austin
One of his
topics (per the NY Times) will be school graduation rates, but the
right-wing has been suggesting basic math might be a nice start...
Speaking of higher ed, There's an
AP story out that share in the Washington post may come under pressure
due to proposed changes in higher ed funding might hurt the for-profit schools,
like the WaPo Kaplan unit, since as you may know (or may not), the
for-profit sector of higher ed is held to a much higher standard of performance
than the private sector when it comes to job placement.
In short, the pubic and
not-for-profit schools aren't held to a measured job placement rate, while the
for-profit schools are. Which causes problems on the for-profit side,
especially when government's idea of stimulus seems to be arrow makers, casino
projects and little in the way of fundamental infrastructure improvement.
More on this next weekend for
Peoplenomics subscribers as we ask a very embarrassing question: If higher
education takes a government forecast of job creation for a particular sector -
and private higher ed trains people for those jobs that are
forecast to be there at the other end of the pipe, who is at fault when
the pipe turns out to be empty? Should the educators be held to
account, or should the government be held accountable for failure to keep
the economy headed in the expected direction?
Point is: Public schools
have virtually no accountability for placement while the for-profits do -
and since the Clintons, Bushies, and Obamanistas have run real growth into the
ground - causing the Occupational Outlook to be DFR (dead frigging wrong) in
many cases, so who oughta pay? I'd venture the government has a fair bit
of liability exposure for blowing the forecast and the student loan liabilities
shouldn't come back on students or schools, but should come back on job
forecasters who believed the Washington hype job expansion via the
house-flipping and infinite services sector as a viable future.
Time to take a blood pressure pill
and set that aside for next weekend's report. Where were we?
Good news - and bad - in the
latest report from online real estate's Zillow.com which has released its second
quarter market report. The headlines?
U.S. home values fell 3.2 percent
year-over-year, and declined 0.6 percent quarter-over-quarter, marking
the 14th consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines. Home values
declined year-over-year in 99 of the 144 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs)
tracked by Zillow.
Negative equity dipped in the
second quarter, with 21.5 percent of all single-family homes with mortgages
underwater, down from 23.3 percent in the first quarter.
Home values in 20 of the 26
California markets tracked by Zillow showed quarter-over-quarter increases
in home values, and 10 showed year-over-year increases. Five MSAs, including
Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego, marked their fifth consecutive
quarter of increasing home values.
Besides a few tons of useful
information you can also put in your address
and see what prices are on property around where you live that's on the
market. Eye opener: House I bought in 1974 for $43,950 is still
worth $344,000 up in the northwest...tell me there's not a profound lesson about
inflation in there?
It's also cool because having the
neighborhood prices in hand, you can go to the year you bought your home ('74 in
my case) and put in the house price and what it should cost presently
just based on 'offishul inflation' and that's only $195,858...so in spite
of anything anyone says, I'm convince that there's another 43% yet left on the
downside of real estate just to get back to 1974 affordability levels..
Your results may vary, but you got the idea?
While the headlines are about the
U.S. Mortgages 'Underwater' in Second Quarter" may be technically accurate,
old cynical me is wondering about mortgage fraud levels,
since they are headed up in the UK...
China, meantime, is telling
key banks in hot markets to test for a 50-60% drop in prices...which, gee,
gosh, seems to coincide with my back-of-the-envelope guestimate of how much
downside is left in the US bubble.
The Trading Joke
Yes, I am back in my short
positions in spite of the futures being up a tad based on trading in Europe.
I trust you saw
the Atlantic outing the robot trading systems in play these days?
Idea is simple: If the robo-platforms get even a few milliseconds head
start, they can cream a fraction of a cent off every share traded - which is
what they do (and why front-runners by trading firms) and in spite of the SEC's
happy-talk that all's peaceful and light, there's so much money made in
front-running systems that the SEC realistically can't afford to take it on.
It'd be political suicide. Too much money coming in from campaign donors, I
Nevertheless, if you're wondering
why all those huge volume spikes happen at the end of the trading day, I'd go
there for answers. Of course, the NYSE has been complicit in helping
install these systems. They used to report each program trade.
Nowadays, according to the NYSE site:
as a percent of NYSE volume was formerly calculated as program buy
volume + program sell volume as percent of NYSE volume. A more accurate
calculation would be program shares bought, sold, and sold short as a
percentage of NYSE shares bought, sold, and sold short.
Think last week there
was really only 28.4% program trading as noted in the NYSE program trading
press release? LOL, of course not! Know why? Devil's in the
"Program trading encompasses a
wide range of portfolio-trading strategies involving the purchase or sale
of a basket of at least 15 stocks..." [emphasis added]
Since computers are super fast and
can front-run individual stocks, the whole thing comes down to a
laughable soufflé. So when one of us 'civilian' day traders makes a move,
who knows how much leverage we really have. My best guess is program
trading plus unreported HF front-running systems are 85-90% of big board volume.
They're not saying.
These days, you aren't trading
another trader so much as you're trading against an algorithm and maybe two (one
on the buy side, one on the sell side)...which means you might do just as well
at Atlantic City or in Vegas. But it's your retirement dough.
Combination of high heat plus wild
is blamed for the death rate doubling over the past several days in Moscow
the US embassy is putting some operations on hold till things break.
Swimming in Asia
A while back - what, six months? -
we were talking about the huge Diaspora which was expected in Asia with many
'millions' on the move this year. Slow getting here, but at current rates,
we're on target for the predictive linguistics to fill out. Now, with
12-million have been impacted by flooding in Pakistan along with the
millions homeless in China, the path for some fill of expectation sets is
==== snip and save section ====
Cool Software Department
Remember Chris Malcheski?
He's the guy who did the really neat software that lefts us flip graphics (like
crop circles...rining a bell there?) around to look for embedded information.
Well, he's got a new one coming
out this week - or next - which is being called ModAlert. What it will do
is let you install this simple (spyware free, BTW) piece of software which will
then monitor sites that you have an interest in - and will pop up when sites are
From my standpoint, this is great
- because I will be able to set it to pop up when the Federal Reserve (or
Treasury, or whoever) modifies something on their press pages. But, it
will also let you set up your favorite sites, too.
Initially, it will ship with
alerts set for the Drudge Report, Faux News, Clif's
and Formation Research (the crop circle collectors). But, you will be able
to add as you like.
Which to my way of thinking is
tres' cool. I can hardly wait - remind me to ask him what the limit is on
how many sites I can preprogram...I'll let you know tomorrow as we get close to
release date on this.
Yeah, you can get part way there
with RSS reader programs, but the problem I've found with RSS is sometimes the
sites of interest don't have feeds for the kind of information I'm after - like
the current weekly unemployment numbers out on Thursday mornings...
Another site I've been playing
with - and it's pretty cool, as well, is
www.finviz.com. The neat thing about this one is they have all kinds
of graphics horsepower, so the various quotes and such are relative to trading
volumes and such. Sample
mapping here. They have an Elite service which I'm thinking about just
because it does that look at things for the pre-open and since stock trading is
very much like a video game where 'first look, first shoot' usually wins, the
idea of such a graphics front end is pretty interesting.
It'd be even more interesting if
you could tie it directly to a trading account at one of the big discounters, so
that you'd be able to click right into a trading screen and go, but not sure
that's a good idea...again hard telling if there's a trader out there or you're
trying to outgun an algorithm. Still, neat display.
Coming To Get Your Food
In case you haven't noticed,
there's a bums rush on by the federal government to get more control over the
nation's small farmers and this may even extend to home gardening as Senate Bill
510 is being pushed along under the guise of 'food safety".
What it really seems to be is
setting up one more avenue for the one-worlders to clamp down controls of what
were once independent nations. For example, one part of the proposed bill
404 - Declares that nothing in this Act shall be construed in a manner
inconsistent with the agreement establishing the World Trade Organization or
any other treaty or international agreement to which the United States is a
Don't know about you, but the
problem I have with these one-worlder groups like WTO is they give blanket
authority to non-elected officials. There's been a massive explosion
of government in the whole sector of Administration Laws by people who are
not elected and it's been a horrible, progressive disease of democracy.
Not to go into a book-length
treatment here, but this Government 2.0 unelected stuff is - in my opinion, a
sorry sack of cow dung and it's NOT in the Constitution. I know, that's
one of the arguments why the one-worlders want even that rewritten, but let's
not go there.
Point is, I expect within five
year or less, we will have food police and even trading or sharing privately
grown food in America will be made illegal.
This is the same kind of thinking
that would make a rural farmer's water well; subject to federal jurisdiction by
Government 2.0 agents - under the pretext that it's somehow extensible as part
of the navigable waters of the United States.
I must not be doing enough
drugs...maybe I could get some doggie downers so some of this stuff would make
more make sense.
Censor the Web, Censor the
Say, here's an odd one which I'd
like to ask on behalf of Shane Connor over at
www.ki4u.com...is this the only reader in Australia who can't get in to the
"Can't get "The Good News
About Nuclear Destruction!" at
www.ki4u.com/goodnews.htm here Down Under. Luckily I have other
literature on the subject, but I'm keen as mustard to find out what the
Minion Ranga's boss don't want me to read. Mirror site available?"
So, if you live in Australia and
CAN'T get in to the www.ki4u.com site, would
you drop me a note
One reason I'm curious: The
Oz gov't said recently that they were not censoring Australian internet
use, yet Clif tells me that our spiders are telling a much different tale.
So, here's the question: Is the gov't of Oz lying about the queenies
subject down under having unfettered access to the worldwide web, or just
what they reckon to be the blessed and sanctioned and sterile parts?
The Texas Shakes, Irwin
little 3.4 Earthquake up in Western Texas (stand up when you read that) this
weekend has a lot of readers wondering if we're worried about it:
"I know you have probably
though of this but the oil field in the gulf probably extends under Texas
and OK, maybe even MO as they have a lot of oil drilling when I lived there.
The loss of oil from the large reservoir probably will lead to some
displacement/sink holes above these states. Some say its tunneling going on
but my explanation could also be true. Just a thought."
I guess the answer is yes - and
no. Another writes:
2.5 in Oklahoma... oklahoma is o.k. Not sure if your following me or
not... but every time there is a tiny shake in that mountain range... leads
to a big one some where else. High-end-zero.. Hmmmm. anyway.
Should be a biggen.. today? not sure.. give or
take a few days. If I was controling all that.. i would have a better idea
when shit was happening. right? i am nothing soo there is nothing i control.
Just HIM and well. all the rest is an illusion. Control like time is just a
OK, and here's a personal weird
one - this had only SOME of the aspects of my "Irwin
Allen Dreams" have have occasionally preceded large events in the global
consciousness, like the dream the day before the Gulf Oil Disaster.
This one was about a huge
earthquake in South Africa (southern Africa) and the magnitude was in the
9.0-9.2 range and there was some aspect of it which involved the letter "C" -
wasn't sure if that was a city name, a region, or what, but I remember several
times looking at the news item thinking "Wow...what a quake!" And then
going and looking again to see if that was a 9.0, 9.5, 8.6 or 9.6 shake...really
My 'Irwin Allen's" seem to come in
best between the New Moon and a few days after first quarter and since we are
close to that window now, thought I'd mention it. I'll let you know if I get
more details later in the week...
Probably nothing, since it wasn't
as vivid as my normal "Irwin Allen" type dreams that do occasionally get things
right (in advance of events) but still, I'm keeping a watch on the southern part
of Africa over the next day or two for a largish quake just in case.
Also had a weird dream about
looking at an important Google Search result page that was really important, but
strain as I would, I could never focus on the term or the results in the dream.
Must mean I need to nap more...cool thinking about accessing the global
consciousness without an internet though...maybe a metaphor in there.
Which would sure explain the control worries of the PTB.
Kid Needs Help
OK, so I get an email from
"my phones on the fritz Please
...but then she explains "The screen is messed up..." Odd one, huh?
She really has the smarts to take out her battery, wait a few minutes and put it
back in, and failing that, take the sim card out and get a new phone. But
gotta wonder about the 'my phones on the fritz please call" part, LOL...
Fat As An Allergic Reaction
Had some interesting follow-on to last week's piece on how a lot of obesity may
be simply a low-level allergic reaction that causes people to get all puffed out
/retain water and so forth - and my #1 suspect is GMO high fructose corn syrup.
But our one-time Houston Bureau Chief, now down making his fortunate in
Indonesia, has some thoughts on the matter, too, sending this...
I have a couple of items to add to the
discussion on fat. When I arrived in Indonesia, I weighed in at a hefty 270
lbs. After six months, I had shed 80 lbs. and 10 inches off the waste.
Before I give you the reasons I think that happened, let me just say that I
have known several people to have rather dramatic results with thyroid
treatment, as well.
OK, here's how I think I did it: 1) eating five
small meals a day with the last one being just soup, rather than one big one
at night and lots of snacks; 2) walking 10 kilometers a day; 3) eating only
fresh, unprocessed foods; 4) a severe drought in the area of distilled
I have since gained back about 10 lbs., mostly
due to the end of the drought.
I think the five small meals a day is the key.
Most Americans eat one large meal at night and only snack or eat McPlastic
during the day. Of course, the walking helped, I'm sure, but I've tried
exercise before with little or no effect. My diet here has almost no
processed food. It's all farm-fresh and recently killed. There are no
colors, preservatives or additives of any kind, nor any anti-biotics or
Most Indonesians are slim and there are few
cases of heart disease that I hear about. The diet is full of starches
(rice, potatoes and bread) and a large amount of food is fried, so it's not
a carb or cholesterol issue. So maybe there is something to the allergy
idea, or maybe it's just eliminating all the chemicals and crap, and eating
sensibly by spacing meals out over the whole day, when the energy can be
Hope that helps a few folks. Worth a shot, at
Make that a double shot...ooops....
So, a reader spies the story in
the UK Telegraph about the "Sewage
power VW Beetle hits the road in Bristol" and wonders...
"Is this a dung beetle?"
Can't say, but if it works,
seems to me it would eliminate the need for gas stations within a 150-mile
radius from Washington, wouldn't it?
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed
during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the
talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that
actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had
conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the
Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug.
Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers
and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a
long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics
subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the
peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929,
we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the
chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of
1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth