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$21 Silver Day: Obamacrats Take on TV Gold Sellers

We'll get to the CPI in a moment, but first the important stuff:  Back in July 2005, when Elaine and I were enjoying life in sunny southern California and I was starting a turnaround for a recording engineering school, I made one of the few outright invest recommendations I've ever made to friends and readers.  I suggested people buy silver.  Not just an ounce, or two, but hand-over-first physical, as much as they could - on my strong belief that the precious metals would zoom ahead of other investments because of government's ever-clearer (100 proof?) propensity to print money.  At the time, silver was trading in the $6.95 to $7.05 and yes, we bought a little.

 

That resulted in all kinds of grief from readers.  Many lamented that "silver and gold don't pay interest" and were therefore a bad investment.  But to such naysayers I pointed out that virtually none of the high tech stocks paid any interest or dividends, either.   

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Government, education, and the shills of Wall Street have done a miserable job of teaching people the reality of economics.  Formula's aren't needed because the main flaw of Western-style economies is that they absolutely, positively, must water-down money's purchasing power over time for the system to work.

 

This is perhaps best explained with a short example:

"Imagine, if you will, the simplest possible economy.  In this simple economy there exists only $100.  The land owner has accumulated that much by thrift and has placed it in a bank for safe-keeping.

 

As luck would have it, the bank has exactly one borrower deemed 'credit-worthy', who now wishes to buy one necessary item for sale for $100.  Let's say it's a a very small piece of farm land.

 

The borrower goes to the bank and borrows the $100, but the bank also charges interest which amounts - over the life of the loan - to $10; i.e. a 10% total cost of interest.  Because the bank has promised its sole depositor, they plan to use the interest to fund their own operations  (so they take 80% of the interest) and pass on 20% or less) to their depositor.

 

So the borrower signs up for a total obligation of $110, receives the $100 up-front money, and buys the land from the seller, who then has $100.

 

Remember the necessary condition:  This is a fixed-size economy.

 

The question is:  Where does the $10 worth of interest come from in a fixed-size (i.e. stable/steady-state) economy with no additional money-printing?  (Hint: Think free lunch as in "ain't no...")

 

It's about here that economists draw swords, dueling pistols, and generally start tripping over their dicks trying to explain away the creation of interest.  And yet, as a practical matter, the bank (or more properly, the central bank) simply prints up enough money to make sure there's enough liquidity to keep things rolling.  Plain as that."

To be sure, there are many elegant explanations offered, but none hold water except the frank admission that the system only works as a constant-growth model.  As long as there is always the prospect of higher prices to come, people will work ever-harder in "hamster-on-treadmill" fashion to make enough money now, to be able to buy an asset which will beat inflation and the only way for us 'little people' to do that is to borrow enough money at interest to enable us to get into positions in ownership where the leverage is higher than the underlying rate of inflation.

 

Ooops!  That requires constantly devalued dollars which is the core Big Dirty Secret Hidden In Plain Sight (BDSHIPS) is how my friend the Mogambo Guru put it back when.

 

To be sure, the economy can operate for a fairly long period of time on this constant-devaluation model, but over time it approaches the nonlinear part of the money-growth curve and a nearly inevitable runaway inflation occurs.  For more, see my work on something we called (*in early 2001) the DEBTBERG which was a natural consequence of the Mazurok-Ure Correlation.

 

A quick trip to the [Minneapolis] Federal Reserve's website and put $7.00 in back in 2005, you'll see that on an inflation-adjusted basis, silver ought to be worth $7.87 just on inflation.  Surprise, surprise:  Silver (and gold) had been so beat-down in price that they have outperformed reported inflation.  By a country mile.

 

In the longer view, this massive watering down process to accommodate the 'constant growth model' has averaged out to something like 2.3% inflation ever since 1913 when both the Federal Reserve (properly neither) and the Federal Income Tax came into existence.

 

Although I step right up and pay mine on schedule, I realize that the income tax is a crooked game because it does not provide a mechanism for the average taxpayer to 'write down' the falling purchasing power of dollars over time, hence everyone given enough time and income looses due to 'bracket creep' but that's another story for another day.

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Because gold and silver continue to have ever-brightening prospects because of the spend-beyond-income mentality in Washington, we don't foresee selling either our (single) gold coin or silver coin any time soon.

 

One reason?  A couple of Obamacrats, reps. Anthony Weiner and Henry Waxman have announced hearings next week on certain marketing practices of gold sellers - apparently in keeping with the mistaken belief that more government is somehow better government:

"Washington DC – Today, Rep. Anthony Weiner (D – Queens & Brooklyn) announced a hearing of the Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade, and Consumer Protection to discuss legislation that would regulate gold-selling companies, an industry who’s relentless advertising is now staple of cable television.

Invitations to the hearing have been sent to the representatives of Goldline International, the Federal Trade Commission, the Consumers Union and other potential witnesses, including former Goldline employees. The hearing is set to take place on September 23, 2010.

The announcement follows a report released in May by Rep. Weiner’s office which investigated the business practices of Goldline International, a precious metals dealer that uses aggressive sales tactics and conservative spokespeople like Fox News’ Glenn Beck to sell overpriced gold coins. Additionally, the Santa Monica City Attorney's office launched a joint investigation with the Los Angeles County District Attorney's office into the possible criminal practices of Goldline International. Goldline’s actions have also prompted a class action lawsuit, filed in South Carolina, against the company on behalf of customers who allege they have been ripped off.

Rep. Weiner, who sits on the House Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade and Consumer Protection is proposing legislation that would force Goldline and companies like it to fully disclose their dishonest business practices. Under Rep. Weiner’s bill, companies like Goldline would be required to disclose the reasonable resale value of items being sold and would no longer be able to hide behind false promises of profitability.

“The frenzied marketplace has become rife with scam artists ready and willing to take advantage of consumers. The sole purpose of this proposed legislation is to protect consumers from being ripped off.”

In May, Rep. Weiner’s office released a report outlining problems with Goldline.

Among the Key Findings of Rep. Weiner’s Report: (Full Report CLICK HERE

Waxman and Weiner are rather expert at sheep-herding, and while non-thinkers might swallow their poppycock, the real agenda here is going after gold-sellers because they represent a direct threat to the failing paper/fiat money regimen.  Can't have that, can we?

 

They're also, by holding such hearings, taking on sponsors of conservative and Tea Party-friendly radio, television and internet web sites.

 

All of which gets down to what should consumers be protected against?  Gold sellers OR members of Congress who have failed to print a warning label on US Federal Reserve Notes (FeRN's) that would alert consumers to the greater fraud in play?

 

I would offer a trade-off:  Waxman and Weiner get even-handed on financial disclosures by requiring the following Consumer Warning on all FeRNs printed by the Fed:

CONSUMER WARNING

At the time this note was printed, the purchasing power of this money has been reduced 95.493% through inflation since 1913.

Fact:  According to the Fed's only calculations, what cost one dollar in 1913 now requires $22.1919 dollars just to cover inflation to Jan 1 of this year.  So, no:  I don't care what Goldline charges (land of free enterprise, right?) the products they sell still hold value better than the US Dollar has over the longer stretch of time.  Even on a melt basis!

 

Say: Did I mention my $7 silver from 2005  crossed the $21 boundary briefly today?

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Interesting thinking point, since this proposed interventionist legislation could impact some TV revenues:   Rupert Murdoch's News Corp was at the top of rep. Waxman's "Top 5 Contributors, 2009-2010, Campaign Cmte" list giving $30,900 according to the OpenSecrets.org website.  Not sure what to make of that...

 

Want a guess?  Sure, but this will sound far out: I think this will be a prelim to more hearings to come in late October - that's when sweeps are...  Follow that logic?

 

Waffles

No, not like IHOP sells; talking about Nancy Pelosi who is hedging her words carefully over whether tax cuts will be extended.

 

The trick/false advertising ploy to watch for, I think, is to see how close to making promises some of the incumbents are going to make in order to be returned to Washington where they will then go ahead and do what the lobbyists are paying for in spite of back-home sentiments which are systematically ignored (for a price).

 

Sounding cynical here?  At least I didn't remind you to "Vote 'em all out' (except Ron Paul) and I showed remarkable restraint by not rolling out my usual headline "Fools on the Hill, Redux" again, eh?  Syrup with that waffle? A little sweetness before BOHICA/bait & switching is high-bidder democracy's version of foreplay.

 

If we just hadn't encouraged the export of jobs through mentally-deficient trade polices, but then again, we don't write the checks, do we?  Still, I remember America once self-sufficient...before we took our constant growth model to the third world having run out of paper here.

 

OK, CPI

How do you spell boring?

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (Before seasonal adjustment, the all items index increased 0.1 percent for the month.) Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index rose in August and, as in July, was the primary factor in the seasonally adjusted all items increase. All major energy components posted increases, with the gasoline index being the main factor. The food index, which declined in July, rose in August. The food at home index was unchanged while the index for food away from home increased.

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in August after increasing in each of the previous three months. This pattern mirrors the shelter index, which also was unchanged in August after rising in recent months. Posting increases in August were the indexes for medical care, used cars, and new vehicles, while the indexes for recreation and apparel declined.

Over the last 12 months, the index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent, though the shelter component posted a 0.7 percent decline. The food index increased at a similar rate, rising 1.0 percent, with grocery store food prices up 0.8 percent. The energy index posted a somewhat larger increase, rising 3.8 percent with gasoline up 4.4 percent."

Not often stated:  With a 4% growth in Fed M1, the YoY 1.1 percent change (unadjusted, table A, right column) means that there's overall 2.9% deflation still about...I trust you saw that energy was up 3.8% YoY which in my read of the numbers is analogous to gold as a truth-telling, value-holding commodity.  Oh darn, don'tcha hate the obvious?

 

GEAB #47 Released

We are not alone in our sardonic outlook:  The GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin free portion was released on Thursday and this is always a good read of what's ahead.  Or not, depending on your constitution.  Speaking of which...

 

Happy Constitution Day

As long as we're on the topic of government (and Big Money - the two being inseparable nowadays), I should mention this is Constitution Day.  Or, what's left of it.

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Defenders of "The Surveillance Society" - unwilling to admit it's really a mainly economic event - argue that the War on Terror has prevented any attacks on American soil (so far).  But I'd argue than my owning a gun has also protected our home in East Texas from being attacked by wild elephants.  Besides, who paid the baddies in Afghanistan and the likes of Osama bin Laden when the Soviets were there?  But maybe if we just gloss over that stuff.  Oh-oh, you see this one?...

 

Lawrence of Afghanistan

While we wait around for Israel to pop Iran, always something to be learnt from a study of historical military operations in the region.  There's a peach of an article in today's UK Independent online which goes into the role TE Lawrence has in forming today's major battles.  Seems the exploits of "Lawrence of Arabian" are influencing how the Taliban are playing out guerilla warfare.  Or, they've also read Mao & Che in addition to Lawrence...and they are on their home field... and.....oh enough.

 

Quantum Computing

While I sit here writing behind 4-LCD screens in crossfire graphics mode, with 12 GB of DDR3and multiple TB's of storage driven by an i-7 920 series box, I'm already looking ahead to "What's next".  Of particular interest is the article in the Financial Times about how photonic computing is making its move now.  No, not in time for Christmas, or anything, but coming.

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Of course while the news reports are glowing about  the supposed user benefits the downside is that the government will get the technology first (since they have all the money, LOL) which means the security state will grow even faster.  Gee, ain't that dandy?  What day was this, again? Life Liberty, and what?

 

(continues below ad)

 

 

 

Coping: Connecting Those Damn Dots

What do old newsmen do - I mean besides have an inconvenient memory for events long-ago forgotten by most people?  Well, in my own case, I connect dots or listen closely to people who have...

 

For example, a doctor/friend of mine mentioned that he'd seen an article on a breakthrough in anti-aging medicine on the Russia Today website.  Sure enough,. a couple of minutes of searching and sure enough - tah-dah!  Here's the article about what seems like it could be a break-through approach to fighting aging.

 

But follow my doctor/friend's logic:  "George, you see how this all fits, don't you?"    He then referred me to the story earlier this week titled "In power to 120 years old: Putin, Berlusconi joke at summit".  Hmmm...has shined that on, but now....

 

"They're probably not joking," my friend figures.  Shoot-damn, I hate it when the dots line up.  What's the old saying...best place to hide a secret is in public?

 

80 Meter Static

A few of us down here in the East Texas Outlands were able to check in to the Thursday night edition of The American Preparedness Radio Network on 3.818 KHz on the 80-meter ham band last night.  I may try again on Sunday night 9 PM Eastern - the net's on twice a week. Hopefully as we get into winter, the noise levels will come down.

 

I had a crumby noise level (S9 to 20 over S-9) but it was enough to get checked in, credit to my CCD antenna and 1.5 KW amp. 

 

Shhh!  Don't tell locals KE5ZSL and WB4WXD that I put their call signs into the net's chat box online so net control could get their check-ins right...just let them just keep thinking their have a 'big signal' like mine...good for moral at the club...

 

Home Handy Bastards Report

Fat George on FatMax

The phrase "home handy-bastard" is a long-standing Ureism for "home handyman" and this morning I thought I'd let you review an email I'm about to send to this particular company which supplies some of the tools we use in our shop...

Dear Stanley Tools,

 

I don't usually write letters about a tool, so if this sounds a bit odd, bear with me.  I was extremely impressed with my first FatMax measuring tape ya'll build.  So was my wife Elaine, who quickly adopted our first one and has held it for ransom for some months now.   

 

Being on a budget, I picked up the new 25' FatMax  which will now go out to 11-feet dangling in the air before collapsing in a heap on the floor...fine engineering.  I was also pleased to get one of your lesser measuring tapes thrown in free thanks to your promotion at the local Lowes store here in Palestine, TX.

 

I write to you to express my frustration in trying to remove the product from your infernal anti-shoplifting packaging.  At first, I thought it would be a simple matter of cutting through the two layers of bulletproof plastic.  (Have you thought about selling this stuff to the Army as up-armor?)  It was not that simple to cut.

 

I discovered that even after the two-hour satanic ritual of slicing off anything that looked like it was holding the product in place that there was a further black anti-theft device for which there were no apparent instructions.

 

I grunted and heaved on this for a further 35-minutes, working up a good sweat - not even pausing for a beer.  True, I could have called the wife to help, but then I'm pretty sure she'd want to 'borrow' the new FatMax.  Fool me once, shame on me, ya know? 

 

I was planning to use the narrower (free one) to put her off the scent of my new one.  We're allowed to carry concealed measuring tapes in Texas, but only because Congress hasn't figured out how they contribute to domestic disputes, but that's another story.  I'm sure Obama or Pelosi will lobby for a Tape Czar at some point.

 

Eventually, I looked at the situation through a magnifier and discovered that there were two little 'scissory' markings on the impenetrable black whizzy plastic delgato.  I wasn't sure what these meant, but since I wanted to have the use of the belt clip I experimentally cutting first one, then both of these discrete little tabs.

 

Tah-dah!  It was free!  But after a little more than 2½ unusual beer-free hours, could you please put a video up on YouTube or on your web site showing otherwise intelligent people how to remove your fine product from your fancy (and way past MIL-SPEC -610D) packaging?  Maybe Budweiser could coop the video cost since my focused period cost they an arm & leg in lost sales.

 

Oh - long as I've got your attention, how about a super-sized version of the FatMax for those of us down here in Texas? A 40 or 50-footer  ("SuperFatMax") would be helpful since I'm sure you're aware everything is about twice as big around here.

 

Last time Elaine got something wrapped up so tight in anti-shoplifting gear, she suggested that some heads-up hardware outfit build a "break-in kit" which would include a Kevlar glove so you don't slice your hands up, an assortment of special knives, box cutters, pliers, nippers, and scissors.  I think she might be onto something there, especially for $19.95...

 

Sincerely (or nearly so),

 

FatGeorge owner of a FatMax

(Until I tell Elaine you stupid biped! - Zeus-the-Cat, editor-in-chief)

 

Send your comments to george@ure.net

 

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Reader Action Department:

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"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn't, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"

 

 

 

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too.....  Click here for the index and details.

 

Pass It On

A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings.  If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them.  Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'.  Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..."

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Last week's report is always here

 

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Thursday September 16, 2010

Going Down?

Markets in Asia were falling overnight as the banking situation in China was getting some folks a little jittery.  But frankly, I don't expect much downside action until next week.  Still, there's this morning Produce Price Index report has to be factored in...

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 0.4 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed a 0.2-percent advance in July and a 0.5-percent decline in June. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved up 0.3 percent in August, and the crude goods index climbed 2.3 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods increased 3.1 percent for the 12 months ended August 2010, their tenth straight year-over-year rise.

As long as we're serving up numbers, how about a side order of weekly unemployment filings?

"In the week ending Sept. 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 450,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 453,000. The 4-week moving average was 464,750, a decrease of 13,500 from the previous week's revised average of 478,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Sept. 4, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Sept. 4 was 4,485,000, a decrease of 84,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,569,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,503,000, a decrease of 7,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,510,500. "

Futures were only down a tad when I looked...

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While the economy sputters along, any major downside action in coming weeks would seemingly increase the odds that the US /West will need to expand overseas conflicts to keep public attention off failing economic policies, since no one is willing to address the lack of jobs and export of America's core manufacturing overseas with natural and predictable consequences.

 

What is the range of outcomes to expect this fall?  I mean that's the big one, right? 

 

Depends on what happens come November 8-12 when the predictive linguistics come to a tipping point, which we expect to be larger than even 9/11 in its impacts.  What that event(s) will be still isn't clear:  But could it be Israel finally 'has it' with Iran or might events be all economic in nature...a second banking crisis only bigger than last time?  Hard telling yet. 

 

Monitoring point:  Ask yourself what would happen if Iran actually were to - or was alleged to - conduct an underground nuke test in the late October timeframe...what would that set up?

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Claus Dettelbacher's new "The Pre-Revolution Handbook" is nearing completion.  As I mentioned before, this is not a book on seditious behavior or overthrowing governments.  It's about the revolutionary changes that seem to be headed our way as humans...

"The three and a half major premises on which this book is built:

1.) The US $ will hyper-inflate and perhaps a couple of other main currencies with it.

2.) A totalitarian fascist regime will (try hard to) take over during or shortly after this process in the US and probably also in the UK and Europe (sequence of probabilities).

2.1.) The totalitarian Western allies will most likely (50% chance) - alone or together - make an effort to prolong the existing system through kick-starting a major war with Iran, China or both by officially switching over into ‘war-economy mode’.

3.) Sudden and violent ‘natural’ changes in climate and (probably) geology will tip over chaos into hyper-chaos"

Or, as the Apsara Publications site promises, it's about "Hidden hands behind the New World Order & how non-violent constitutional movements could transform collapse into rising freedom & real change..."  Reading a review copy now and I'll keep you posted but its close to our own view of how the chaotic future could dump on us all shortly.

 

Egg On Their Mortgages

Seems Fannie Mae began buying some of those $1,000-down mortgages without going through a required approval process, according to reports.  Quick!  need another Czar over here!

 

Greenspan's Latest

Ex-Fed boss Alan Greenspan - remember him?  Architect of the Housing Bubble and free-market proponent? - now says taxes will have to rise to fight the budget deficit.  Why he couldn't have come to that while the republicorps were feeding at the trough is not clear...but seems to me to be a 100% change of tune...  Wanna burn some Ayn Rand books?

 

Axing Retirements

You see the Yahoo/AP story about New Jersey looking to cut retiree benefits?  Not sure but that it might have some legal fallout; people make lifetime decisions based on what they consider a contract and then to have terms changed unilaterally, it's well....just not right.  Not that anyone would ask, of course...  Why do I sense a new field of law opening up:  Retirement Rights?

 

World Full of Hate

My, but money certainly makes people hate one another, doesn't it?  "Yen Intervention Fans Flames of Anti-Japanese Rage Across China" headlines the Business Insider.

 

Best Government Money Can Buy Dept.

We hear the odd tale, now and then, about how political figures lean on the lobbyist community (or is that industry?) to raise money.  But few times is there as clear a case as this one:  "Shocking Audio:  Facing 'Obligations' from Leadership, Democrat Congresswoman Leaves Voicemail for Lobbyist Cash".

 

Wonder what that cost us taxpayers?

 

The Double Dip Cometh

Unfortunately, whether Warren Buffett agrees, or not, the evidence continues to pile up that a double-dip recession is in the works.  Most recent bit of long-term statistical data:  US homes lost to foreclosure are up 25% compared with year-ago levels.  Not good (unless you're shor5t the market...).  Third record in five months...

 

Mexico's Next Flooding

The latest from the National Hurricane Information Center places Hurricane Karl going into the middle of Mexico, which means we can expect to hear reports of extensive damage & flooding there by late this weekend:

 

 

Also, Monday ought to be when Hurricane Igor slams into Bermuda...

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For our neighbors to the south Mexico is holding a second day of festivities around their 200th anniversary of throwing off Spanish rule... Cinco de Mayo isn't their only holiday...

 

Another One of Those Stories

As a newsman, I can't tell you the number of times that a story has come along that I've heard about, but which never got to see the light of day - opr come to the public's attention - for the lack of a second source.  That's a kind of touchstone in the new business:  a story needs to be confirmed by either a high authority or by multiple sources.  Lots of those floating around at any one time...they tend to be stories told over beer, rumors about how the real world operates.

 

That's where this one may fit:  A story in Air & Space Smithsonian this month about "The 727 that Vanished"...leaves you scratching your head wondering "Wonder what really happened on that one?"

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Oh the stories news detectives could write if it weren't for journalistic ethics about multiple sources...of course there might be a lot more warring going on if all the dirty secrets were out...so perhaps it's best....

 

Can N. Korea Be Trusted?

With word that North Korea is trying to engage South Korea in military talks over border disputes and such, leaves us with a ponder:  Are they sincere, or is this just a way to gather some intel?  You should be able to guess what my money would be on...

 

Pot Flavored Ice Cream

Only in California...

 

Runaway Government

Speaking of the Republick of Kalifornia, here's a real nightmare story for you about California's taxing madness:

"Hi George,

Grab your wallet and watch out! Maybe even clear some space for a little moral outrage.

Here’s the short thumbnail of our catch 22.

A while ago one of my husbands elderly relatives was declared incompetent. After numerous lawyers and court dates he was appointed conservator of the estate and charged with accounting for everything of value. His relative has some notoriety in the arts world and possesses a large portfolio but years of hording required that every scrap of material in the property be inspected and conserved if it had any value.

Several individuals with expertise in history and art conservation were hired as independent contractors to ensure that the collection was secured and cataloged according to the court and art conservation standards.

Fast forward to today. The state of California has decided that the experts were employees and therefore are eligible for unemployment. California does not view them as independent contractors regardless of the fact that all of these individuals work professionally as independent contractors and that every one negotiated and signed independent contractor contracts.

The estate lawyer and contract attorney are in disbelief. Several of the art experts are outraged and we are simply stunned. The insidious part of this is that if the estate simply pays the unemployment to put the issue to bed it would be essentially admitting that it is a business! Guess what comes next. State and city fines and taxes and God knows what else they may be able to dream up.

All the estate is trying to do is to meet the requirements of the court and put the estate and collection into proper order so that all items of value can be sold for the express purpose of taking care our relative. Apparently this is a business on planet California!

So here’s the great State of California making a blatant grab for cash from an incompetent 88 year old. Heck, the purse snatcher that knocked down my grandma a few years ago at least had the decency to pick her up before he ran away. It’s an act of extortion! If we don’t pay the unemployment then we have to pay attorneys. Either way this takes money away from the medical care and support of our elderly relative and frankly probably means the loss of months or even years of quality of life for them.

So my word of warning to all of your readers is watch your wallet! Desperate bankrupted bullies are stooping to the unthinkable to find money! Apparently even mugging the helpless elderly is now an acceptable income stream for California.

Most of us are used to bending over… I mean bowing and paying tribute but our relative hales from a different era and it frankly just ain’t right!

Keep up the great work!

Please withhold my name etc. Just call me Ben Dover

I just put another 3-by-5 card in my wallet for when my memory starts to go.  This one reads:  "Don't die in California - or anywhere else if possible." 

 

 

(continues below ad)

 

 

Coping: How Bad a Winter?

The Old Farmer's Almanac has its forecast of cooler than usual especially up in the Northeast, but due to La Nina probably a tad milder than usual in the American Southwest  It also lists the 'best days for castration', but I digress.

 

A reader observation of interest:

"I have never seen chickens molt in August, but both my chickens and my daughter's chickens starting molting in late August. The deer had already started showing their winter coats when the chickens were molting.

We were camping this last weekend at Crane Prairie Reservoir southwest of Bend, OR. The camp hosts told us that the little piles of green moss we were seeing everywhere were what the squirrels use to insulate their underground homes and that when the squirrels/chipmunks start stuffing their dens with moss, that is when cold weather is on it's way. They said they had never seen the squirrels start insulating their homes this early in the year.

The weather here has already started having that "chill" in it that feels like winter, even though it was still August, and it froze overnight at the reservoir at about 5000 ft in the Cascades on the 11th of September. I hope the Farmer's Almanac is right for the West Coast, but all signs, at this point, indicate otherwise."

Several readers have reported that their home gardens were severely under-producing this year and wondered if that might somehow tie in to plants having a mechanism telling them (in advance) not to waste a lot of energy going to seed this year...

 

Then there's this website sent in by a different reader, which figures that there's something of a 'local bubble' of 'dark energy' in space that could bring with it several years worth of colder than usual weather.

 

Odd;  I always thought 'dark energy' was released every time a light switch was turned off...

 

Regardless of the indicators, I've got the caulking gun ready to go around the house and look for air leaks this week.  While the weather is still warm it's a dandy time to fix the house up for winter, checking the weather stripping and what have you.

 

Space Taxi

Boeing is apparently putting plans together to launch space tourism into low earth orbit around 2016.  Which raises some interesting questions to my way of thinking - not sure Boeing has thought of this one.  You see, the way I have it figured, when people go into space  - in other words, if they cross the Kármán line, they will technically have left the territory of these United States, right?

 

So, this being the case, how come people going into space can get back into the US without a passport or documentation, but when you or I go exit and return through a ground-level border crossing there's a separate set of rules?  Not trying to be picky here, but laws is laws and I don't recall a space-travel exemption...or maybe that's a deliberate oversight so alien aliens can enter legally, you think?

 

We do try to think of everything around here...

 

Watching Government Spending

A reader sent along this mostly interesting link:  To the Department of Defense Contract Awards Page.

"I thought this was neat

Special T Hosiery*, Burlington, N.C., is being awarded a maximum $7,192,800 firm-fixed-price, total set-aside contract for socks. There are no other locations of performance. Using services are Army and Air Force. The original proposal was Web-solicited with 11 responses. The date of performance completion is September 18, 2011. The Defense Logistics Agency Troop Support, Philadelphia, Pa., is the contracting activity (SPM1C1-10-D-1033)."

Somehow, that's the kind of data that doesn't seem  terribly useful, but might make a dandy "Where'd your tax money go?" version of Trivial Pursuit...

 

What's In a Word?

Reader observation:

"BTW, I have mentioned this to you before but now I must AGAIN draw your attention to the overuse of the word ABSOLUTELY Check it out...it is so being overused on the radio..like on C2C with the host and the callers and even on talk radio in the daytime. I also am noticing it in TV esp live broadcasts like the news, etc. You are somewhat of a linguist as is Cliff...check it out and when you figure out what it means, let me know. It is driving me ABSOLUTELY crazy !!"

Er...Oh!  I've got it:  A runaway successful word of mouth advertising campaign for a certain kind of vodka!  Yeah, dat's it....

 

Gun Rights

Good email from a reader in Canada...which we remember as a yet-to-be state (like Mexico):

Hi there Mr. Ure,

as the saying goes there is a first for everything.

This is not a letter about gun ownership, but a letter on the relationship between crime and gun ownership.

Personally I could care less about gun ownership (15 years in the Armed Forces told me one thing, the only purpose of a rifle/gun is to kill or learn how to - a knife can also be used to cut steak).

As a Canadian laws in other countries are not something to get excited about (unless I visit), but the fairy tale of gun ownership and lower crime is garbage (to be frank) - see the links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_rate 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Canada 

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_tot_cri_percap-crime-total-crimes-per-capita 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_murder_rate 

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita 

The same would probably apply to that old wife's tale of incarceration rates and lawful societies (did not bother with the research on this).

A hopefully respectful but anonymous reader

One other reader note that was pretty good on point:  "You're right -- Guns don't kill people - Good Aim does!".

 

Gluten-Free Beers

Say, here's some useful scoop:

"...there are gluten free beers, made from sorghum, A.B. - RedBridge (lager style), Lakefront - New Grist (pilsner?), Bard's Tale (lager) as well as several Canadian/Belgium/french imports (much harder to find, the others at least have national distributors"

Never thought about it...but good to know. And just in time for breakfast...my how our timing works out....

 

Trying to Get Hold Of...

Would my cousin in Seattle who went to Ravenna Elementary please drop me a note?  Got a client with an electronics project and can't find your phone # and no reply from your MSFT email adr....

 

(That oughta make the watchers watching the watchers watching the...crazy...but the fact is I have a client looking for an expert to build a small a/d converter-based consumer product...)

 

---

Wednesday September 15, 2010

Woes Returning

OK, the markets are looking like they might start sliding to the downside, which I was already expecting since Wednesday when Howard Hill took a position short the financial stocks, I'm smart enough to watch Howard's moves...I'm in the same trade with four-digits worth of shares.

 

And things are lining up for him (or us?):  The home loan demand is dropping as refi's are loosing their glow, rates are stabilizing (and in some cases moving up).

 

Gold set a new record yesterday and while off a bit today, that's what you'd expect after a $20-some point rise...a breather...but rumors on the net that the US may devalue its currency seem to be picking up steam...

 

 Then there's the Balance of Trade in Goods and Services report just out:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total July exports of $153.3 billion and imports of $196.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $42.8 billion, down from $49.8 billion in June, revised. July exports were $2.8 billion more than June exports of $150.6 billion. July imports were $4.2 billion less than June imports of $200.3 billion.

 

In July, the goods deficit decreased $7.0 billion from June to $55.2 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $12.5 billion. Exports of goods increased $2.8 billion to $107.7 billion, and imports of goods decreased $4.2 billion to $162.9 billion. Exports of services were virtually unchanged at $45.6 billion, and imports of services were virtually unchanged at $33.2 billion.

 

The goods and services deficit increased $9.7 billion from July 2009 to July 2010. Exports were up $23.7 billion, or 18.3 percent, and imports were up $33.4 billion, or 20.5 percent.

 

Read this as a "We're still digging that hole" report.

 

Next factor: the NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey out today:

The general business conditions index remained positive, although it slipped 3 points to 4.1. The new orders and shipments indexes were both up moderately for the month, at levels signaling stable activity. The prices paid index was positive and little changed from last month, while the prices received index edged up to just above zero. Employment indexes were positive, suggesting that employment levels and the average workweek continued to expand over the month. The degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.

May not look like the set-up to a double dip to Warren Buffett, but to me it sure seems to have that look.  I'm rooting for Howard's trade...admittedly self-serving of me, but that's what trading is...

 

Fine Old Cannibals

Christine O'Donnell has begun to lead the change in the Tea Party away from the old-stream republicorps who gave birth to the TP as a campaign strategy.  Why, with the likes of O'Donnell pointing to GOP 'cannibalism' maybe a third party has a chance in America, although the GOP maybe ain't seeing it yet.  Maybe they'll be able to lasso and hog-tie the TP, but not yet it seems...

 

Same kind of thing in NY where Tea Partier Carl Paladino rolled over the GOP old-liners...

---

Meantime, I do have some lingering questions about voter IQ's as Charlie Rangel - ethics cloud and all - has won his primary round.

 

Financial Reform = More Fees

Say, is this what all the hoopla over financial reform comes down to?  Outfits like Bank of America are planning new fees to come if balances don't meet certain monthly minimums?  Not just BofA - all the biggie banks are apparently planning new fees.  Still trying to figure out why BofA got a $45-billion bailout and was able to pay it off so quick...what was that all about?  Short-term cash flow issue?   Next banker story, please...

 

Lookout Bankers!

The UK's Guardian is reporting that the IRA may change its focus and start attacking bankers.  Gee, where've I heard that kind of language being predicted...hmmm..."attacks on banksters..."  Maybe they're worried about higher fees, maybe?

 

The 'Blue Flu' Redux

Seen the pictures of the massive fish kills along the Louisiana coastline?  With people asking "Gee, why's this happening?" I have to scratch my head and wonder "Why do we let people like this vote?" I mean, like, you don't suppose it could have anythi8ng to do with the oil spill for cryin' out loud, do you? GMAFB...  (yes that means give me a frigging break...)
 

The Daily Shake

I keep watching these almost daily shakes coming from the area of upper Baja near the Imperial Valley and wondering to myself WTF?  Today's is a 4.7 and if this keeps up for a long time, maybe one morning I will wake up and have to report something like "Southern California is now an Island..."

 

Did I mention the 5.6 off Puerto Vallarta?

 

Need a Job?

If you're specialty is Accounting or Finance, you might start popping resumes off to Singapore...where there's a skills shortage.  A kind of delightful reverse here:  We outsource jobs, so why not turn tables and outsource unemployed people back?  That'll teach them globalistas.

 

So Much for Privacy

Several readers have asked if I had any comment about the 9th Circuit decision this week which basically guts a landmark computer privacy ruling.

 

The decision in the 9th argues that if prosecutors or law enforcement goes looking for a specific thing on your computer and happens to trip over something else that's obvious like a spreadsheet that has good summary information on a crime-related topic, then it's fair game.

 

I'll probably spend some number of hours today arguing with myself further over this one because there are two ways to take it.  One side of the schizophrenic George has been arguing the point that "An innocent man has nothing to hide" from federal inspection of electronic devices.  Except of course, this case involved medical records (drug test results) and so there's the whole dimension of patient/client in this one, too.

 

My other split/persona argues that the government could find something illegal in almost everyone's life given unfettered access.  Why, remember that speeding you did a few weeks back?  All you'd need would be access to a vehicle's computer records and you could be popped for negligence, given enough computer horsepower, data logging, and so forth. 

---

Still, a compliment due:  Wired's "Threat Level" section is really an excellent daily read.  Especially since the story ahead of the 9th Circuit decision was about how a "Privacy Tool for Iranian Activists Disabled After Security Holes Exposed" was the article.

 

This article saves my split-personality arguing for another topic since this second one involves a program called "Haystack" which was designed to let the activists get secret messages hidden within normal web traffic.

 

How does that end my self-debate?  Oh simple...follow me on this:  The real design pattern here is this:  If you have the backing of the US government (like Iranian activists) then it seems to be OK to encrypt your heart out, but if you have a spreadsheet with summary data of major league sports players' drug testing, then government claims look-see rights. 

 

Design pattern:  Asymmetric rights of humans.

 

A Gun Rights Note

I have a number of close friends who are distinctly anti-gun claiming guns kill people.  After staring at a gun for two weeks - and noticing it did absolutely nothing - I countered that people kill people; guns are just a tool like a knife, a chainsaw, or automobile.  Which then degenerated into a yelling match over carrying a concealed Buick...but my point is what?

 

Oh, here you go: An inconvenient story out of Fairfield, California Saturday under the headline on the KTVU site "Gun-Carrying Neighbors Save Women from Dog Attack."

 

With the US trying to back-door a small arms treaty which could, by extension, be used as an excuse to attempt disarming Americans, the National Association for Gun Rights report "Facts Speak: Gun Ownership Reduces Crime" is definitely something to send your friends who don't understand what the "right to keep and bear arms" is about.

 

Seems the anti-gun people don't like it when you ask "What other parts of the Constitution do you want to erase?"  Or, the ever-popular "Have you read the part about powers not specifically ceded remain with the State?"

 

Coping:  Planning Ahead for Hunting Season

Although I suppose that supporting the Constitution's every clear Second Amendment might push me into the ranks of 'gun nut' that's hardly the case.  Out here in East Texas guns are simply tools used by almost anyone who works or walks the land since some of the critters out here are nastier than even a cornered politician. 

 

Ever stare at a snorting 400-pound wild hog which would just as soon eat you as not?  Or been chased by a very territorial cotton mouth (water moccasin)?  There's times when there's no problem solver like a 7.62 x 39 round, or sometimes a 3" 12-guage round of #4 snake shot. 

 

On the other hand, life out here is not without its risks since the Texas deer season is right around the corner.  I have no quarrel with bow hunters (October 2 - Nov. 5) as they are truer sportsmen, although once past the traditional Mongolian recurve (which I shoot, but not hunt with) the umpteen pound compound bows lose a little something.

 

But November 6th through January 2 is when we stop our Martini Mile hikes because even with orange vests and hats, there's still enough fire power in the woods around here to make us (or a Ranger battalion) think twice.

 

I read a study a while back on when deer-hunting accidents are most likely to happen:  The worst-case profile would be a middle-income male in his late 20's who's been sipping whiskey up in a deer blind all day and mistakes a movement in the woods for a deer about dusk.  Which happens to coincide with Martini Mile time.

---

Never been a fan of hunting, although fishing's another story.  As usual, my take on things is that when Kroger's, Wal-Mart, Brookshires, and a hand full of other stores around here run out of meat. chicken, and fish, then (and not before) I'll take to hunting.

 

Key thing to get across is that with either 2½ weeks to bow season, or about

7½ weeks to gun season, there's plenty of time to refresh yourself on gun safety, hunting safety, and grab some new orange gear.

---

Related: A federal grand jury is going after some 60-hunters across the country who allegedly poached deer out of season in Kansas, between 2005 and 2008 including 70 trophy-class bucks.  Not everyone's a sportsman, but5 again, you got that nailed already...

 

But, while headlines like this pop up (and no doubt will be showing up in anti-gun agitprop), the flip side is the larger number of states where little media attention shines on Hunters for the Hungry projects.  Just not on the MSM agenda, it seems...but this is where you'll find the true sportsmen, indeed.

 

ElectroCulture Notes

Being something of a ham radio addict anything with electronics in it is fair game around here.  With plans calling for the installation of our greenhouse in about a month, I've been thinking again about the effrect that certain energies have on plants.

 

That prompted a note to Robert Nelson, proprietor of www.rexreseaqrch.com who has been quietly collecting information on this for years.  I asked him for a few links so home electronics tinkerers would see what's out there in what might fairly be called a borderland-[science field like this:

www.rexresearch.com/articles/elcultur.htm
www.rexresearch.com/elcultpat/elcultpat.htm
www.rexresearch.com/elcultpat/elculpat2.htm
www.rexresearch.com/agro2/magnacult.pdf
www.rexresearch.com/infolios/elcult1.pdf
www.rexresearch.com/infolios/elcult2.pdf
www.rexresearch.com/infolios/elcult3.pdf
www.rexresearch.com/parry/parry.htm

Robert's note continued...

Wet soil ? Water migrates to the negative pole -- dig a hole, add rebar & (-) voltage... Beyond that, everyone's gonna have to start using hothouses ...

I was the director of R&D for Pavich Family Farms for a few years in the 90s -- the world's largest organic growers -- so I half-know what I'm writing about here... But no one listens to me until they get desperate...

So yep, some of these electronics applied to plant-growing is really interesting stuff.  A word of warning:  The Rex Research site is a terrifying time-sink.  Whenever I click over there, I usually make up a sandwich, or two, get a couple of water bottles, and leave Elaine a note to come drag me away from my computer after 24-hours or so...

 

Another Time Sink

Once I get done reading everything on Nelson's site, the next site to munch is the WorldMapper which has maps of everything imaginable...at least so says Michelle the map lady.

 

More Brain Food

Anil Rajvanski has been updating his book "Nature of Human Thought" and on my reading list for today is the short chapter "Cloud computing as a theory of reincarnation".  Got to think about that and who's writing the OS?

 

Globe Trotting on the Cheap

Daughter Allison is about to take off for Europe - this makes the last of my three kids making it to Europe before me; George II and Denis have both been there already.  Needless to say, she's excited as the Dickens about it - going with her mom....they've been pre-shopping hotels and sights to visit for six-months or longer.  Yep, the National Bank of Dad got hit for a contribution...

 

All of which - in a normal around here, roundabout way -  gets me around to mentioning one of the cheapest ways to see the world - check out http://www.couchsurfing.org/.  Idea is that humans shouldn't have to be rich to travel -- just well-connected, which this site/group does a fine job of.

 

Oh, and if you don't have time to travel, you can start getting a stream of international travelers by volunteering a couch in your home if you're the adventurous type.  Wonder how long before your neighbors would call DHS on you?

 

New Home Business Plan

Say, here's an email that got me to thinking about a new home-based business.  Goes like this:

This weeks offer is from our Postcards on CD department 10,000+ postcard images of Victorian Risque Erotic Models Complete with full resell rights...

Hmmm...maybe I could open an antique porn site and really get rich... purely an academic effort, mind you.  Fact is I think more people have made more money with porn websites than have made money than helping the poor, oppressed, and downtrodden.

 

Which just shows to go you what an F/U'ed planet this is.  But then we already knew that, right?  The question is why?

 

---

Tuesday September 14, 2010

Retailing Troubles

Let's start off with a monkey-mind number, shall we?  Latest of retail sales has just been released:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 3.6 percent (±0.5%) above August 2009. Total sales for the June through August 2010 period were up 4.7 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2010 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.2%).

 

Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from July 2010, and 3.7 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 10.5 percent (±2.8%) from August 2009 and gasoline stations sales were up 9.6 percent (±1.8%) from last year.

And a picture,  please?

 

 

Fine, right?  Well, sure, 3.63% Year-on-Year sounds OK, until you reralize that M1 (fed reserve major money measure) is up about 4% in the same period. 
 

"You mean like no economic progress, Ure, is that what you're getting at?"

 

My, aren't we the wakey wakey one...  of course the markets will rally at the open since the happy-talk spin on this will be "better than expected".....Move along, nothing to see here...  When will someone start publishing unit and cost data?  Prices only is all too easily spun because people forget that you can have twice as many units at half the price and have no change in retail $$$ numbers...but a little difference in the wallet, no?

 

Worker's Revenge in the Wings

Although the Dow managed to tack on an 81-point gain yesterday, after being up as much as109-points - and it could head higher for a few more days before turning down again late this week, or next, there's something fundamentally about to change in how markets operate.

 

The role of workers.

 

Let's back up a bit:  In Clif's predictive linguistics work there has been all kinds of talk about 'revolution' driven by economic affairs.  Now, we're catching whiffs of that scent again on several fronts -- some obvious, other's not. 

 

Take for example the piece in the Wall Street Journal online about how truckers in Greece are protesting.  Upset workers in Greece - got it?

 

Now look at the bitter union representation face-off between the SEIU and the NUHW in California where there's a battle is over which union will represent 43,000 Kaiser workers.

 

Family Security Matters has an interesting piece on "Workplace Violence: Workers Killed and Wounded on the Job."

 

And increasing qattention is being paid to "the box" that older workers are being put into as a result of stolen/squandered/ripped-off retirement plans.  They need to go back to work on the one hand, prompting the NT Times to talk about the need for "Fairness for Older Workers" on the one hand, but bringing with it the 'evil twin':  As older workers stay in their jobs unable to retire, that puts a cap on the number of young people who can enter the workforce causing normal rotation out of - and into - the workforces on hold.

 

The pro-oldsters line is parroted by the Detroit Free Press comment "Old Workers can shine -- but will they get a chance?"

 

This just about perfectly defines a socioeconomic conundrum.

 

While president Obama is going around making hollow statements like the "U.S. has the best workers, economy" that somehow isn't squaring with the facts on the table both in data form and in headlines.

 

Just more evidence to me that Washington is out of touch.  As further proof, look at how the republicorp stooges are now digging in their heels on an extension or compromise on extending the  Bush-era tax cuts.  Seems it's their intent to prevent compromise (which actually might help people) in order to crassly maintain a 'deal point' for the fall election campaigns.

 

I can't count the number of readers who sent me the story from Monday that Warren Buffett has ruled out the possibility of a 'double-dip recession'.  But, it's not the first time I've seen things different that Buffett; last thing that comes to mind was the Housing Bubble.

 

There's a fundamental change going on in the world: One involving workers versus largely corporate interests.  Just out this month is a new book by Phillip Dray "There is Power in a Union: The Epic Story of Labor in America."  A good discussion of it here in the Washington Post's Political Bookworm comments of Steven Levingston.

 

If you don't subscribe to Peoplenomics because you would have missed last weekend's report on migration paths to non-monetary business models, but let me just say that the return of unionism is not unexpected, but it's likely only a waypoint toward the ultimate outcome of self-organizing collectives and a return to the cooperative business model.

 

What seems to be going on at a global level is that humans are in the process of watching the 'things and stuff for money' business model and are starting to ask the hard questions like "What are we all getting in return for working so hard - in many cases 50-years and more?  Is the return on investment any good, or has our system (and main business model)  hoodwinked us into supporting much larger systems of government than the Founders had in mind?"

 

Don't look now but the "IMF fears 'social explosion' from world jobs crisis" reported the ever-vigilant Ambrose Evan's-Pritchard in the Telegraph.  Hawk-eyed contributor Tony Ring says don't miss the  'duration of unemployment graph' - it's a heart-stopper.

 

Coming months ought to put this all into perspective, but then so does the next story:

 

You Know Things Are Bad When

Post-Fidel Cuba is going through economic turmoil, or I suppose the world 'adjustment' sounds less panicky.  Call it what you will, they're cutting 500,000 government jobs and going through salary reviews. since so many people in Cuba's workforce (5.1 million is an estimate) this means this government reduction could impact r4oughly 10 percent of the workforce with cuts and who knows how many with salary changes (downward in most cases).

 

Key difference in America?  We won't get around to making substantial cuts in government for a while. 

 

The economic purists will spend years arguing over who's right:  The guys that cut government so taxes can drop and enterprise take root or the approach that argues (and prevails here) that if you cut government spending that's just one more source of economic movement coagulating which will make their recession worse.

 

Cost of Government

In a simple picture, isn't it?

 

 

(From the August Treasury Budget report)  Try running your home like this for a while and let me know what happens...think you could get several decades worth at these levels?  Not on your life...

 

Change Point: Interest Rate Lows In?

Something to think about:  My friend Howard Hill has been watching interest rates like a hawk; something of a risk for a genius of long tail analysis.  But what's even more interesting that a possible bottom (in the 10-year) is his decision to move into some hedges in the banking sector.  Coincidental to my four-digits worth of shares in the same hedge?  Good thing I don't offer investment advice!

 

Two articles on point: "Why Nobody's Jumping on Record-Low Mortgage Rates" and "Current Mortgage Rates Trending Upward - Bank of America and Chase Lower Loan Rates."

 

If you're thinking about make deals on property, or just trying to get lower rates, based on these stories, Howard take on the 10-year if I understand it right, and the action this morning with Gold (nearly $1,260) and silver (well over $20 and heading back near record territory) one might surmises that the rates we have right now today COULD be as good as it's going to get for this part of the downturn.

 

BUILDING AN OUTLOOK:  One thing all this rate discussion should do is trigger some contingency thinking about things like your personal investments, the outcome of retirement and college plans, etc.

 

My best dart today would be:  Sideways market this week from here, then a resumption of The Big Slide through the fall with a mini-crash after the November elections as it dawns on people that with republicorps in control on the hill and the democorps in the WH, ain't nothing going to be done to really fix America's fundamental problem - a lack of jobs and paying for outsourcing over and over again.

 

That ought to lead to economic recognition in the Nov 8-12 period regardless of whatever else is going on.  To be followed with a year-end and maybe through February a rally up to the Dow 9,500 to 10,000 range, but then next year a decline that revisits and then takes out the Dow 6,400 level of March 2009.  By a year from November, Dow 4,400 comes in, or maybe in the spring of 2012.  That's a long term bear for yah...

 

"The Crasher"

That's how a www.drudgereport.com headline summed up the Delaware Senate race where the establishment republicorp is getting its butt kicked by a Tea Partier.

---

The more I watch how the Tea Party is operating, the more I think "Gee, there's hope after all..."  Not that I agree with many of the specific political points at an individual level, but it'd be kinda sweet to see the GOP strategizers have their Tea Party creations turn on them in Frankenstein-like fashion.  Why, the Tea Partiers who sneak out from under republicorp control are almost Libertarians and Constitutionalists...both admirable traits to my way of thinking.  Now we're talking American Values.

 

Has a slight historic rhyme in what happened in China when the Red Guards got out of hand during the Cultural Revolution.

 

When the mainline republicorp party hardliners are being crassly political and anti-human on tax compromise, it's no wonder ethical folks have had it with the corpgov wing of the party...

 

Codex Back-Doored?

Oh, so the Obama administration is setting up the US equivalent of Codex Alimentarius, huh?  Text of the EO setting up the "National Prevention, Health Promotion, and Public Health Council" here. 

 

Wonder if they'll go look at the SV-40 polio virus tainting?  No?  Why am I not surprised...You mean because the government could have a huge liability for causing cancer?

 

Don't know about you, but when a book like Mary, Ferrie & the Monkey Virus : The Story of an Underground Medical Laboratory links the US tainted polio virus to the Kennedy assassination and the book is going for $400 used on Amazon - if you can even find it - well, money speaks louder than words, you know?  Truth leaks from the bids...

 

Oh - IO should mention you can get Edward Haslam's book "Dr. Mary's Monkey" here...and $20 including signature.

 

Meantime this Codex/Health Council thing smacks of more 'backdooring' of legislation from the UN like the new 'neighborhoods' money the feds are passing out to areas adopting the UN Agenda 21 clone legislation...

 

Buying the Media

Say, here's a dandy about how much money the federal government has been spending on media related purchases around the Gulf spill story.

 

Also of note: The 2½-inches of oil on the ocean floor 16-miles from the spill site.

 

Weathering

Looks like current Cat-5 Hurricane Igor will be slamming into Bermuda by Sunday.

---

Hurricanes grab headlines all over the place, but around here, I'm much more interested in the longer-term impacts of things like long winters, droughts, and what have you.  The Old Farmer's Almanac has a snowy eastern half of the country forecast due to the La Nina.  On the western side of the country, a warmer and milder winter is expected.

 

Most years around the ranch we don't get snow - every couple of years is it.  I'm hopeful, though...snow's a good thing and the colder the temps the fewer the bad critters (snakes, bugs and such) winter over.

 

Shaky

Down in the Baja area again this morning another 5.4 quake.  I keep pointing these out because of the possibility (however small) that since California's Imperial Valley is mostly below sea level, any subsidence event there could have catastrophic impacts on your family's food budget.

 

Coping:  Tuesday at the WuJo

Since the WuJo is a place where science meets the woo-woo on the mat of Reality, seems like this is a good email to start with...

"Been making your blog a daily must-read for quite some time. The WuJo section has especially caught my attention.

My wife and I have had our own version of high strangeness going in our home, starting about 4 years ago, but accelerating of late. Not time slips and such, but perhaps more along the line of dimensional slips resulting in objects spontaneously appearing and moving. We are both self-employed and work at home, children are grown and gone, so there is no human culprit to blame these things on.

The first time it really caught my attention, I was returning from a business trip to Canada. Not possessing a passport, I took along my birth certificate folded in a plain white envelope. While waiting for the connecting flight home in Detroit, it must have slipped out of my laptop case. When I got home there was absolutely no sign of it, and I ripped apart all of my luggage in search of it. I was resigned to the loss, when a couple of weeks later the envelope appeared on my living room coffee table. The birth certificate was intact inside, but the outside of the envelope was dirty with footprints, as if repeatedly stepped on in a public place like an airport terminal. This was difficult to explain, but it gets weirder.

A friend’s dog I was fond of died one night but I didn’t find out right away. In the morning my digital alarm clock went berserk, with display segments flashing at random. Later that day I took the car in for an oil change, and the tech found fresh dry dog food filling the canister around the air filter. Of course he wanted to know how it got there…

Someone gave my wife a polished stone at a psychic expo, and it moved itself several times from where she had placed it. Finally, I held the stone and challenged whatever force had been moving it, to show me a clear demonstration of this trick. That evening we went out and when we returned, the stone had been deposited on my bedroom pillow. Since then, polished stones of every shape and color have been appearing out of the blue – on one occasion we counted nearly a dozen dropped on our bed while we were out. It continues to this day, averaging several new stones per week. Sometimes they are on my office chair, or my keyboard. The repertoire has expanded to include assorted keys, hand tools, and other common household objects. I have to check under the bed sheets each night before laying down. Sometimes I recognize the objects as coming from elsewhere in the house, but often they are completely new to me. We have acquired a couple of books, in perfectly new condition, as if having been whisked directly from a bookseller’s shelves. In both cases we had intended to order them, but then they simply appeared on my office chair or my wife’s.

In one of the more bizarre cases, I tried asking the “entity” doing the materializations to bring me a gold coin. Hey, this is a great parlor trick and all, but why not put it to some practical use? Shortly thereafter I approached my office chair one morning to find what appeared to be a gold coin sitting there. Turns out it was a gold-colored medallion from a local nursery, redeemable for one free rose. Very strange that a consciousness appears to be at work responding to my request in some fashion, and that I have no idea where the medallion came from. Still working with it on the numismatic gold coin angle…

This is but a sample of our strange incidents. I’ve published a more lengthy account on my blog  along with some photos. Something strange is indeed happening to many folks as the dimensional boundaries get thinner.

Keep up the good work, George. Tell Zeus I enjoy his contributions when he subs for you.

A few other bits of high strangeness have popped up, too.  Like the couple that went for what is normally a 90-minute hike at a local park, only to discover recently that one of their trips was extended to a full five hours leaving them mystified.

 

Another reader (and Peoplenomics subscriber) who does precision measurement as a calibration expert reported recently that he found absolutely evidence of dimension-changing.  He was calibrating mechanical measurement devices which he does frequently and the whole lot was measuring 3-thousands off!  Mind you, this is a fellow who can measure down to the millionths of an inch, so 3-thousandths (about the thickness of a sheet of paper) is just a huge error. 

 

So was it wear?  No, the error should have been 3-thousandths the other way.  Oh, and then later on, all the 'errant' devices suddenly started measuring correctly...talk about weird.

 

Education's ROI

You may remember last spring I was writing about how it looked to me like there was a diminishing return on higher education in most non-product fields.  My reasoning was pretty simple:  Unless you're bound for the high end of the intellectual property (IP) food chain, people are going to pay you for what you can do not the college taught what you can think because most businesses simply don't care...

 

Well, says a reader, lookie here:  The story is taking root:  "A college Education of diminishing Returns" is a good read if you're wondering "Is school worth it?"  You learning Chinese?

 

Continuous Improvements Department

After a couple of people suggested it over the past year, I finally got around to getting one of the new Kindles so that I could work out how to do a daily delivery of UrbanSurvival to the Kindle community over the Amazon Whispernet.  So far, I've gotten part of the way into the process, but more to go since I need to figure out why my RSS feed is not hitting the my mobile devices pages: www.urbansurvival.com/Mobile/ and www.urbansurvival.com/Mobile/week.mobi

 

Ideas are welcome as to which format to use...I've got .MOBI files up now but maybe I'll need to do a .PDF for Kindlers...help?

 

BTW, I mentioned this a while back that web sites that have a broad reach and which wish to stay 'in the game' need to provide for mobile users.  Saw a stat someplace that something like 3 or 4 out of 5 net users were on things like iPads, Blackberries, phones, Kindles and what have yous.

 

Just trying to stay current.

 

Emails From India

Have a reader who's writing "The Pre-Revolution Handbook" and despite the title, it's a very thoughtful look at how a whole lot of changes are piling up.  no, it's not seditious material - no endorsing of violence or anything like that.  Just a book on the 'revolutionary changes' in the wind on many fronts and what kinds of events and indicators to be on the lookout for....

 

But just as an aside since we've been exchanging emails this morning,  boy has the email from India been slow:  His emails take 2-3 minutes to open.  Got to wonder if that's the alphabet guys keeping an eye open for 'hot words' like 'revolution' ion emails into the US from elsewhere.  Likely.  Hi guys...thanks for looking... Now can I have Outlook back up to speed, please?  Works fine when emails from this reader are deleted and go to super slow when his email is read.  Might help if he were to take out all links in his outbound, but even so....curious, you know what I'm saying?

 

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Monday September 13, 2010

Terrorism as a Growth Industry

Although the normal focus of the UrbanSurvival.com site is long wave economics, that takes in a tremendous amount of ground.  Sometimes, even though I try to watch developing history as best I can, there's enough 'noise' in the 'news' that getting a clear bead on it is sometimes tough.

 

Still, I was reminded by a reader that last week, president Obama signed off on another year of living under a continued 'state of emergency' due to the threat of terrorism.  On Friday his formal note went to the House:

"Section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act, 50 U.S.C. 1622(d), provides for the automatic termination of a national emergency unless, prior to the anniversary date of its declaration, the President publishes in the Federal Register and transmits to the Congress a notice stating that the emergency is to continue in effect beyond the anniversary date. Consistent with this provision, I have sent to the Federal Register the enclosed notice, stating that the emergency declared with respect to the terrorist attacks on the United States of September 11, 2001, is to continue in effect for an additional year.

The terrorist threat that led to the declaration on September 14, 2001, of a national emergency continues. For this reason, I have determined that it is necessary to continue in effect after September 14, 2010, the national emergency with respect to the terrorist threat."

Even if the Koran/Quran burning hadn't popped up in the news over the last week to 'grease the skids' a bit, officials weren't taking any chances.  Call me a little too coffee-laced cynical, but how coincidental was the reporting last week about how the head of DHS was claiming that "Terrorists May Strike Again"?  It's a story that has gotten all kinds of play (like this example).

 

From a strictly long wave economic perspective the timing of 9/11 was highly suspect:  It came when a critical wave count looked complete and the global economy was looking at the possibility of a melt-down because the failure of the Internet Bubble.  yet, when push came to shove, the perps of the 9/11 attack seriously misjudged the resilience of capitalism.

 

Not only that but in addition to being resilient, the capitalistic West almost instantly figured out how to make untold billions off the attacks.  First there was the massive ramp up on TSA, increased security for airports, critical infrastructure and did I mention the Operation Iraqi Freedom war which morphed into Afghanistan for mysterious reasons not obvious to me; I don't have an interest in an energy services company.

 

That was just the start, however:  Since that time we've been seeing the installation of more and more 'freedom reductions' and spending huge piles to exploit the 9/11 event ever since.  You have to count things like terahertz wave technologies, full-body scanners in airports, and later on today, the White House will be pitching a $60-billion arms sale to congress.

 

If bin Laden had left well-enough alone, the US economy might have cratered on its own.  Plenty of evidence to that effect.  But like one of those 'invisible hands' that moves the economy, the 9/11 attacks remembered this weekend underscored one thing for me:  From an economics standpoint, the US would likely have collapsed by now had Osama bin Laden (or his marketing image, eh?) not come to save the day creating an overnight industry.

 

Several wars, lots more government control, authorization for government to peer into more areas of our private lives than ever - especially electronic surveillance of the internet - bind Laden couldn't have given a bigger shot-in-the-arm to the West if he tried.

 

Like the US goading Japan into WW 2 and then withholding knowledge of the pending attack as some historians have argued occurred, the truth of the event will likely not become clear for some number of years, as people nearing death start up with their death-bed confessions and such.

 

Still, if you had bought Halliburton (just to pick one example almost at random) in the Post 9/11 period, you could have gotten it for under six bucks.   Today the company is in the $30+ range. What's more, the company has paid regular (and healthy) dividends ever since.  There are other examples in the defense sector, too.  Not sure that if you count up the dividends the equivalent price paid wouldn't have been zero.

 

If there was a thinking point out of the 9/11 observances beyond the memories of the event for me, it was for me the realization that capitalism  is a kind of ultimate killer T-cell:  Once the systemic response kicks it, it goes out and over-performs to a large extent. 

 

In a logical way, the case could be built that the events of 9/11 - horrific as they appeared at the time - may have actually saved America which was right at the point of recognizing a Second Depression as the Internet Buddle collapsed stealing the life savings of millions of families.  Unfortunately, that also implies that if things get bad again, that another energy-shifting event will be coming along to boost an ailing sector. 

 

If I were making bets, I'd be reading the CDC press releases religiously as that's a sector where lots of capacity could be built out.  The biggest problem the health industry has is that in the past when they've brought new product to market they've jumped the gun almost every time.  Starting with the polio vaccines in the late 1950's that contained cancer-causing rhesus monkey SV-40 virus, which enough people remembered may have given a whole generation a cancer virus that so far, med-scares like swine flue haven't taken hold.  Or, was it the damage from mercury-based preservatives?  How about all of the above and more...

 

It's therefore my expectation that we will shortly - and by this I mean within 2-years - another run-up of a 'killer disease'.  I reckon the odds will double once we get to the market decline into Depression recognition point again.

 

For today, look for more rally - which I guess is a good thing.  But go reader the background on how "Synthetic pathogens Might Post Bioterror Threat, Scientists Warn" that appeared on Friday.  Means a fair bit of time studying  that industry group, but if the medical version of Halliburton is out there...well, just sayin...might be like the [misnamed] Patriot Act...something to stick in the drawer to have handy in the event of...

 

Oh look, Genzyme is selling its testing unit to LabCorp for almost a billion...hmmm...

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And how did the tipster/reader who sent in the  link to the WH filing sign off?  "“Those who would surrender their liberty for security, deserve neither” -- Benjamin Franklin

 

The Weak Ahead

So, what's 'out there' this week?  I mean besides one more week of rally before we get a decent decline?  My friend Bob Bronson noted in an email that Mutual Fund Cash is at an even lower level than at the March 24, 2000 top.  Dandy.

 

Treasury Budget today, retail sales tomorrow along with inventories.  They the NY Fed survey Wednesday along with industrial production.

 

But, it's the balance of the week where things will be dicey:  Producer Price index on Thursday and then the CPI on Friday.  I figure a run-up rally today and tomorrow.  Oh, gee, gosh, look: Futures are up...quick look surprised!

 

Ure's Alternate Economic Reality

Eyes Have It - Or Do They?

The word in the USA Today that the Department of Homeland Janet is about to try iris scanners is yet further proof of how the 9/11 events released the killer T-cells of capitalism which have now gone into over-reaction mode.

 

Oh - being the owner of not one, but two ocular implants due to cataracts (my rincoln was in the shop rim shot) I have to wonder how those of us with bionic eyes are going to fare with this? 

 

Still, just the database and supporting network for this ought to be huge.  Not to mention the little peripherals that will be needed - like forehead pads for the look-into-it machines on a health basis...want someone else's sweat - and whatever - on your face?

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Wait!  This could be the tipoff!  Maybe Homeland will start hiring optometrists for every border crossing to deal with lens implant patients! 

 

Then -  given full body scanning and a now maybe an eye doctor - how soon before they add a cardio machine and hand out a full health analysis report every time we travel?  Then sell back-i9n tie-ups to the health insurance division of corpgov...oh this is too cool.  What a killer T-cell, huh?

 

Lighter Promotion, Redux

The cancellation of the lead Koran burning this weekend sure hasn't turned off that aspect of the controversy.  The 'flip side demonstration' against Koran burning in Afghanistan led to a shooting conflict with 'police' who were determined to break it up.

 

Then there was the Oz lawyer-dude who smoked pages of Bible and Koran, but this gets us to the larger question of "What are lawyers smoking these days?" which we don't have time to answer that one...

 

Hands-On Government

Russian media has coverage of prime minister Putin at the controls of an amphibious tanker doing water drops on Russia's wildfires.  People seem to forget that besides being the ex-head of the KGB, Putin's a martial arts master, pilot, adventurer and a lot more.  Extremely competent guy...

 

Hands All Over Everything Government

The battle over Senate Bill 510 is on.  this is the grab for control of the nation's food supply so that you will need to register with the Faterland in order to engage in many common agricultural pursuits.

 

Oh, speaking of the fine line between good governance and outright bullshit when it comes to our [once upon a time] freedoms, did you see where DeKalb County Georgia is suing a local guy for growing too many crops?  Just upped my blood pressure a couple of points...

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Like the bill which will install a 1 percent transaction tax in addition to the income tax (read up on HR.4646), near as I can figure, this fall will work out like this:  There will be a fair turnover in congress in November's elections and then because there will be a huge number of lame ducks they will sit around and pass all kinds of bigger government - more government - measures so that more people who don't work can leach off those who do...

 

Why it's predictable, ain't it?

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I won't mention that I'm wondering if government in the slimmed down born against Kapitalist Russia may be skinnier from a regulation standpoint than here in the US?  Got any stats?  Wouldn't that be a hoot?

 

Say, you don't think the FTC really could be forced into a class action lawsuit over false advertising for a fictional "Land of the free" do you?

 

Coping:  Mexico's Revolution In Progress

Sort of depends where you look, I reckon.  A lot of Mexico's attention has been on the flooding of last week as hurricane Hermine went through the Rio Grand Valley area, but the real story this morning is that Mexican marines have grabbed an alleged drug kingpin known as "El Grande."  But whether this will slow down the pace that drug gangs are taking over Mexico appears to be in doubt.

 

Benn pondering things - having  some friends in Mexico - and I'm developing an interesting hypothesis for what's going on:  I call it the "Government Substitution Model."

 

The way this works is pretty simple:  You start with a country where the government has gotten progressively more and more out of touch with the regular people.  And then, you water down the currency and resist well-intended efforts to tie it to something meaningful.  Evidence of this is seen as the pro-silver groups in Mexico have made only start & stop progress toward stabilizing a currency which has been in more or less a continuous state of inflation since the introduction of the Nuevo Peso which lasted all of 1993 to 1996.

 

Where do the Mexican gangs get their power?  Marijuana is the largest single source, and then you have more dangerous drugs down the food chain from there.

 

Mexico will be celebrating its 200-year mark this week with big celebrations planned in places like Chicago.  What's being celebrated in the 1810 uprising against the Spanish.

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My morning generalization of "gangs as substitutes for government" move really explains a tremendous amount about what's going on in the world.

• Ascendance of MS-13 in lieu of government (or as a parallel government) in many Central American nations including Mexico.

• The rising influence of the 'gang culture' in the US.

• Operation of the Taliban in places like Afghanistan.

Humans - properly programmed - have a real craving for 'order' and 'control' that doesn't get much attention in everyday media.  Periodically we see 'episodes' of mass public acceptance of 'strong power' figures.  Happened in Germany with Hitler's thugs, now it's the kind of thing going on in Mexico and a fair bit of the Middle East.

 

I find myself wondering:  "Is there some kind of cycle in play that make people want control by violent means?"  The follow-on question is equally logical:  Its the "War on Terror" inside the US a variant of this possibly cyclical 'hole in the soul' of humans? 

 

Just Asking, Department

Here's an odd email:

"George, Just read your Friday's WuJo section and thought I would pass this along to you.

I was polled by Gallup on Friday night and some of the questions they asked me made me scratch my head. I think the meat of the poll was to find out how I felt about Pelosi, Bainer and Obama. Along the way they asked me questions that I could not figure their motive for. They asked me if I believed in God, hell, heaven and ghosts. I figured this line of questioning was to determine if I am some kind of fanatic or something. They also asked about my feelings on abortion. But then they asked me a few questions that made wonder what the reason for asking would be. After reading your Friday's WuJo section I thought of these questions as more interesting. Those questions were "Do you believe in extraterrestrial life outside of our solar system?", "Have you or anybody you know ever seen a UFO?" and "Do you know where the United Nations is headquartered?"

Have these kinds of questions always been included in these polls? This is my first polling, I have nothing to reference. Maybe your readers know...."

OK, here goes - if you've been polled lately and get some 'off topic' questions, please let us know what they are.  Might be interesting to see what psychographic the pollsters are  looking at...inquiring minds asking...

 

Around the Ranch:  The Antenna Diet

Today, I will be catching up on the inbox after spending most of the weekend working on a couple of big projects here at the ranch.  Seems sometimes like life in East Texas consists of work, work, and then working some more to beat back the vegetation.  Things grow like crazy in the late summertime here and as proof, the garden has been inhabited now by creeping morning glory vines which have to be rooted out by hand lest them kill the tomato plants.

 

Curiously, the small green toms that were looking like they'd come into full fruiting haven't been doing very well.  On the other hand, the bull pine that sits just up from the office has been growing like crazy so I rented a 35-foot scissor lift and did some surgery on that.  Then I go around to some of the other 'high work' that needed doing:  Welding a higher support for wire antennas on top of the ham radio tower, and using the lift to surgically trim off the oak tress that were slowly putting a canopy over the house and shop/office building.

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Speaking of ham radio (which I'll do at the drop of a hat) I didn't make the "American preparedness Radio Network" ham radio net on 3818 KHz LSB last night at 9 PM Eastern, but I'll try to grab a nap on Thursday to stay up for the  9PM Thursday meet-up.  If you're looking for a place to exchange views on sun ovens, food storage, or any of the million-and-one things that go into have a 'prepared home' this looks to be worth staying up for.

 

Band conditions are always a bit dicey, of course, but with summer winding down 80-meters is improving.

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Say what you will about the ham bands being in poor condition lately, I talked to a fellow in Slovenia on Sunday with 100 watts on voice - didn't need the linear on online to do it.  Fellow has to test equipment when working on it, right?

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Even if you don't like ham radio, the high work was enough of a workout that I sweated off 4-full pounds over the course of the day.  Even after hot shower, a couple of doses of internal liniment, and 8-hours of pillow-time, I was still down 3½ pounds.  Working in 93-degree heat means eat lightly, drink plenty of liquids, and lifting a welder onto the lift platform which is about 6-feet up was the closest to a genuine workout I've come in a while.

 

Realizing that 'weekend warrior' syndrome is the cause of some heart attacks, since Thursday I'd been loading up on fish oil pills,  Co Q 10's, half an aspirin twice a day and a couple of olive leaf extract pills.  No point tempting the grim reaper; hopefully might writing just annoys him.

 

Between being slammed around on the tractor Saturday and then this latest attack of madness Sunday, I'm convinced that someone oughta come out with a book called "The Farmer's Diet".  First, don't eat, second slam yourself around on a tractor seat while brush hogging rough land at a breakneck speed for four or five hours. The next day play heavy lifting with a welder overhead to get it up into the lift bucket while it's 94 degrees and 88 percent humidity...well, you got the idea.

 

Went I go into town now, I'll be asking myself when I see the occasional overweight farmer around here:  Is he really a farmer, or is he just a lot manic on his ag equipment than I am on mine?

 

Best Email of the Week

Oh sure, the week's just starting, but this was nice...

"Good morning Mr. Ure.

I read the CBA in today's Peoplenomics and want to thank you for providing your research and guidance to your subscribers.

I recently renewed my subscription to Peoplenomics and this one report in and of itself is worth more than the full price of a whole year of reports. True top shelf value at a bargain basement price in today's over-hyped and under-delivered financial advisement business model...."

Gee, shucks, garsh Mickey....Yes, I get out on the limbs now and then on the UrbanSurvival site (labeled as woo-woo or WuJo) - but Peoplenomics is serious as a heart attack and anything but goofy...

 

A Monday Text

From our friends up at Roche Harbor in the San Juans:

Ran into this quote and thought I would pass it on since it seems quite appropriate:

 

"Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." ~ Mark Twain

And so we set the tone for another week of trying to figure out which it is...