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Soothsaying and Moneymaking
Lookout below! (Remember: The Crash Window is open, yeah?) Every so often
I'll get a note from a reader wondering "George for such a good economics and
markets site, how come you waste so much time on woo-woo, web bots, and crap
like that?" I would think the answer is obvious, but at the risk of
sounding redundant (again, LOL) let me spell it out for you...
Investors and speculators share one common trait: They each build a mental
construct of the future which - if it comes to pass as they think - will
make them some money. However, the reverse is also true: If their
construct fails to appear within the right timeframe, they either don't make
money, or worse, lose money. It goes without saying that a speculator is
someone who is expecting a quick change of events and the timeframes used by the
investor class are a little longer, but in the end, both eye the future, build
their vision of it and pray for profits - which is to say - their vision of the
Oh, sure, there are other reasons to study the future, like not being in harms
way when it arrives with mal-intent. Or, the avoid the end of life for a
while by not being under a mushroom clouds; that goes without saying.
So it's in this spirit that we look at a wide range of future predicting
technologies which have the potential to do as well as my friend
Clif's radial linguistic shift approach, or the more seasoned technical analysis
approaches (including Elliott Wave theory), astrology, and to an extent,
fundamental analysis. Oh sure, I'm aware of the 'new kids on the block'
who are getting into the space, too; among these,
www.recordedfuture.com has gotten
some funding from Google, while
Lyric Semiconductor which is especially interesting with their
statistical probability / best-fit chip path.
Being something of an agnostic, each has pluses and minuses, strengths and
weaknesses if you
SWOT them out, but to date, only the radical linguistics seem to be able to
pull out the 'turn dates' for 'game-changers' with some degree of repeatability,
and even here, I think the biggest claim Clif's made is that the web bot project
is only better than chance by a factor of two, although in certain areas, it's
way beyond that.
Unlike television with its Nielsen ratings, or the web with its web log
analyzer programs, figuring how these emergent technologies, as a group, will
impact not only investment, but also 'life as we knew it' is something of a crap
shoot. First, all rely on the Internet, so anything in the future that
could take down the net is problematic, and the, since the whole point of
investing is making a buck, any failure of the market's settlement
mechanisms (little goodies like a functional international banking system being
alive with fund transfers working) are use-case assumptions which no one likes
to think about because if more people did, the investment and
intellectual property developing population of America (and other centers
of financial monomaniacal behaviors) would be far more geographically dispersed
on land and sea, and be far more focused about issues of systemic
reliability and catastrophic failure recovery modes. But you probably
figured most of this out on your own.
Out here in the East Texas Outback. it's with this framework in mind that we
gather here each morning to set "the morning line", to put it in gambling terms,
which the future always is when one takes a clear-eyed look at the beast.
To do this, I use Clif's work (a lot) because it foretells the outliers
so well (quakes in advance, that kinda thing, or the Nov. 8-11 period) and on a
rule-out basis, we can use other sources, such as the NY Times piece this
morning under the headline "US
Assures Israel that Iran Threat is Not Imminent" which gets me to the
starting point of this morning's discussion, at last.
A skeptical reader notes:
"...Of course, if I were the Prime Minister of Israel, I'd have to be asking
myself why should I believe the President when he assures me that Iran is
still more than a year away from a nuke when this is the same President who
was just proven to have lied to his own people about the persistence of the
spilled oil in the Gulf. If I were the PM, I'd have my strike planners keep
In broadest general terms, Clif's work has a 'cloud' over things from the middle
of next week on into early next weekend. Take that with the Times' Middle
East piece today and it seems forecast set up (when I read it, but
click here and buy your own copy for
$10-bucks) more of a financial kind of event than attack on Iran.
Which is not to say that I'm reading his work correctly, it's just that the way
the market is acting, wee could very well be setting up for another "Flash
Crash". All that remains to be defined would be a 'triggering event'.
Much of what happens in the synthesis of multiple inputs around here should get
even better for Peoplenomics.com subscribers next year, since I'm cobbling up an
interesting synthesizer' which will attempt to take Clif's timing marks and use
them in conjunction with planned news events.
As you may be aware, 80-90% of what passes for 'news' on a daily basis is
predictable because most news events are timed./ Next week, for
example, the 'news budget' for the week includes home sales Tuesday, Durable
Goods on Wednesday, and so forth.
So if you take the market wave counts from a fellow like Robin Landry,
then add in the news budget, maybe option cycles from Robin Handler's Option
Signal Service, some input from the astro-econ crowd, and top it all off with a
sharp dart, the guessing could be pretty good. In fact, if you asked me
right now what I think will happen next week, I'd have to guess at a hugely
disappointing weekly employment number again, but more likely any Flash Crash
would be caused by intermarket arbitrage accentuated out of control by
Got an interesting theory on this front: The advent of HF trading seems to
have had the effect of over-emphasizing a move in a security or index. The
analog in electronics would be to make a filter that expresses more gain as it
becomes more and more sharp, as the bandwidth is reduced, which is
algorithmically what's happening.
My theory is that the Flash Crash phenomena will repeat at some point
because when too many filters in a radio get 'too tight' the whole circuit can
fall into oscillation...another way of saying runaway feedback.
Which means, in practical terms, that when enough humans are taken out of the
HF trading platforms could entrain such that the whole collapse of
the global finance system could be accomplished completely "hands off".
Damn, what a long winded exposition. How about we distill it down to a
1. Market in today's trading has a line in the sand of 10,303 (last week's
close) and if that happens, then a Flash Crash is in the cards next week.
2. Clif has a cloudy in the date mid-week next.
3. The Iran War may not start until the Nov 8-11 period, in which case,
the global economy, death of money concept rotates into highest probability.
There, easier to digest? Makes more sense than muttering P3 entrains
minute 3 entrains minuet 3 at sub-minuet 3 on the wave count, doesn't it?
I just thought I'd give you the long version talking around that slide, since
that's the kind of thing on the agenda this weekend when I go up to Oklahoma to
talk with Robin Landry in more depth about his count.
Market direction may change about a half-hour into this morning's trading when
the Leading Economic Indicators come out. Just remember the initials for
this could be viewed as an
anagram. Gee, wonder what that might be?
As the Week Wraps Up
A reader summarizes it this way: "Did we just avoid WW 3?"
"Hi George! Wow, what a day. Three BIG stories.
Firstly we have the story that the Obama Administration has "Assured Israel
That Iran Threat is Not Imminent"
Thats pretty close to the US saying it will not
support a military campaign of aggression against Iran.
The second story is about Obama himself. You
would think that if someone just spent a week deciding whether to listen to
The Masters, or save Humanity, that they would deserve a bit of time off.
So,where is Obama? Thats right. Marthas Vineyard. For 11 days with the Fam.
Sounds like someone is beat. How is the media covering the story, though?
'Obama family to begin their 6th holiday of the year.' Looks like Obama is
about to be thrown under the bus.
The third and final story shows that maybe the
message has already been received by Israel and they are backing down.
"Israelis and Palestinians to Resume Talks, Officials Say," the article
says negotiations will return for the first time in 20 months!
Mr. Ure... Did we just avoid WW3? Or is the
propaganda too perfect?
Ask me around Thanksgiving.
Another potential cause of another flash crash could be the story develop0ing
about the Mortgage Electronic Registration System which keeps record of which
properties go in which bundle of mortgage-backed securities.
A good background article here goes into speculation that 62-million mortgages
could be 'off the hook' (or maybe not) but the key thing to keep in
mind is this: If we see a major change in expectations about delivery in
derivatives, could that ripple through to other derivatives, too, such that the
whole hundreds of trillions worth of paper-based debt all goes up in smoke?
Oh, sure, that gets us deeper into the Depression. What changes is the
rate of work-out. I won't even try
to summarize all the moving pieces in the derivatives world right now, but
it all comes down to one thing: Sudden change is possible and
anything that quickly changes future expectations is a bad thing when
markets are on the technical edge of the abyss.
My long-tail MBS bundling friend has, in the past, expressed high confidence in
MERS but I expect the people in
Dresden during WW II thought they had a good fire department, too.
The Credibility Gulf
Hmmm...whom to believe? The White House happy-talk or the
academics quoted in the Washington Post this morning who says the oil mess isn't
going away quickly as some of the folks in Washington are trying to sell....
Oh-oh. Since I wrote up the article earlier this week on global
warming/catastrophic climate change in the wings, seems
a new debate has broken out about flawed satellite temperature data...
Data for Readers
A couple...no, make that several... readers challenged my assertion in
the column earlier this week that president Obama is NOT a Muslim.
Just so you know the
basis and can look for yourself, please click here.
Reminds me of the old newsroom joke: 'Let's try not to let the facts get
in the way of a good story." I'll leave it to you how to interpret
that in this instance...
I routinely dump any and ALL email that trying to hornswaggle me into
right or left wing fundraising. They get enough from the special interests
as it is, no reason for me to add to their tills. IRS will get their next
check from me in 26.72 days, but who's counting, right?
==== snip and save section ====
Coping: "The Time Has Come,
the Walrus Said..."
A quick visit to the WuJo this morning, where hard science dukes it out with the
woo-woo folks, with usually a draw resulting, but along the way monkeymind is
massively entertained, so be it...
I've been enjoying your news, even more than
usual this week. [Miss a counseling session? -G)
I am particularly interested in all the odd
little dreams your readers are writing about. The frog dream is very like
some odd ones my daughter and a friend have also been having. They are full
of warnings that sound like punchline--hard not to laugh at a frog who says
the country is "easily inundated" --very
Being of the Jungian persuasion, I find it hard
to think of reptilian conspiracies and tend to think more about maybe
kissing the little fellow, especially since he had a crown on his head. I'd
love to know what frog princes mean in that dreamer's mind. The little
greenie is archetypal--well, not major archetypal--but one of the minor
ones: small helpful animals that talk, like the mice in "Cinderella" or the
golden carp or the donkey or the crow of folk tales, for example. Small
animals like this, especially if they offer some kind of warning, usually
mean that the dreamer is being offered a choice, and if willing to take a
chance on some better ethical quality in himself, will reap a reward.
Web bots strike me as little things with their
roots in these minor archetypes. And taking a chance on Peoplenomics advice,
with an ethical dimensional (as opposed to a numerical dimensional) aspect
to one's actions certainly seems like something to consider.
In the folk tales, the actions of the ethical
self, upon accepting the offered chance, always bring about a
"transformation," and reward, or in alchemical terms, a transmutation.
Interesting, I think that frogs are also one of those creatures that seem to
be markers for climate change, potentially catastrophic microbes and/or
pollutants, by virtue of their tendency to present mutations very quickly.
I'm also enjoying the "interterrestrial" idea. I've always loved conspiracy
theories. Once I heard a British commentator say that there's nothing wrong
with conspiracy theories, as long as one gives equal consideration to what
he called "cock-up" theories. I think I've got it, George: these awful
interterrestrials who abduct people, mutilate cattle and collude with world
governments are really out there, really involved in evil conspiracies, but
they're real screw-ups. The bad boys usually are.
Thank you for the welcome whiffs of sanity.
Oh...er...sure. Still getting time-shift notes, too...like this one...
Another time/dimension shift story…
At the pistol firing range yesterday, when
packing up to leave, I loaded a clip with JHP .45 rounds into my Sig 220,
jacked a round into the chamber, and went to safety drop the hammer with the
decocker. I was facing downrange, the gun muzzle down and downrange, and
pointing toward the wall-floor intersection, 180 degrees from anyone in the
range. At that moment I had a “fuzzydizzy” (fuzidy?) moment, seeing the
decocker was mixed with seeing the hammer and not fully comprehending
either, gun turned slightly to see it’s left side. There was a loud bang , I
felt the recoil, saw the muzzle flash. (My bad, obviously my finger got into
the trigger guard while handling. Oy! I’m a pistol instructor of mature age.
) Four witnesses standing behind me also saw the whole event. No Injuries.
I, and they, saw me standing about 4-5 feet further downrange than the
bullet hole, low in a side door. From where I was standing at bang time, the
hole was behind and below me, but directed in the same forward/down
direction, and it was my bullet hole. The vector of the bullet through the
door indicated (notice the forensics) an origin back by the witnesses, about
12 feet behind where I was standing and from whence I came several seconds
before. Yes, there was a lot of collective head scratching. And, lessons
Not the place to be when time goes shifty-like.
One more on point:
George I couldn't help but notice a significant synchronicity of this story
(about the girlfriend' and keys earlier this week) that I observed. Keys
seem to be the more popular item that go missing for a time and then they
are found later in time. So why are keys an item to go missing? Back to the
story from one of your readers for a moment, "...On it I saw my girlfriend’s
keys and it reminded me of how frustrating it was not having them..." I
bring this up because i've noticed in others stories of finding missing keys
that they were done looking for them or had mentally moved on to some other
thoughts and for some reason the missing keys show up when you least
expected... or did a difference in thought or emotional state UNLOCK the
door (dimension gate) for the keys to reappear? As they say changing reality
comes from holding a thought lightly like a breeze, its the subtlety that
holds the most magnificent power of all. We must all be statically powered
stargates and not even realize it, a power which TPTB are terrified of us
finding this out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dude...you so didn't know that? Why do you think religions were invented -
to teach us that such states are universally attainable and there free
for the taking? And that's why the PTB always include a co-opted religious
element that gets bent around, too and...oh, you know all this stuff, don'tcha?
Driving a Right?
Earlier this week I was bemoaning how driving out to be a right, not a
privilege...and in reply to a note, our one-time Houston editor, of late in the
wilds of Indonesia, offered this perspective having challenged state licensing
himself in the not too recent past here in Texas...
First of all, there is a form of shock in which
an individual is overwhelmed by the immense size of the problem at hand, and
so chooses to "re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic" as a means of
coping. This sounds very much akin to that problem.
As for the discussion about rights and
privileges, there have been numerous SCOTUS decisions over the centuries
that hold that transportation by any means is a right on the public roads.
In fact, I have successfully fought nearly 100 tickets for no license, no
registration, no insurance, and so on. The problem that so many people get
tangled up in is the difference between words and terms.
The law defines certain words in common
usage with special meanings, making them terms. We all think of
driving as using your car, but under the law, driving is operating a
commercial vehicle for hire, which is not a right. So you go to
court and try to argue that you have a right to drive and lose. Now,
if you use your private machine to go about your personal business, well,
that's a horse of a different color.
Many common words are terms under the law.
Vehicle, transport, operate, drive, and so on, all have special
definitions in court. If ignorance of the law is no defense, then
knowledge of it certainly is. You can fight, and I will attest that you can
win, but be prepared. You will spend a lot of time in court and in jail. How
much are you willing to invest in protecting your rights? You can pay the
fealty and be a slave and take the easy road, or you can insist on your
rights and, in the current environment, lose a lot of time and effort. A
personal decision, if there ever was one.
One thing I truly enjoy about living in
Indonesia is the ability to pay "uang rokok," or cigarette money. In most
instances, a little grease on the palm makes the enforcers go away quietly
and leave you in peace. I'm all for it, actually. Some people say that it's
corruption, but I say show me a System that isn't. I just prefer my
corruption out in the open where I can enjoy the benefits as well as the
next guy. As the saying goes, ya pays yer money and you takes yer choice. I
choose to stay out of jail anymore. I paid my price for liberty and got
chased half way around the world for it. People never think about if
everyone just stopped participating, the whole charade falls apart. Most
folks just pay to get along with the least hassle, and that plays right into
the hands of the enforcers.
So, you gotta ask yourself, did I fire five
shots, or was it six?"
An additional thought:
In Thailand, they train elephants at a young age
by tying a back leg to a stake. The elephant learns that it has limited
range of motion when tied down. After a while, the owner doesn't need the
stake. They just tie a rope around the back leg and the elephant won't move
more than a couple of feet until the rope is removed.
Sampai jumpa, B"
All of which gets me - as long as we're on the topic of laws and rights and such
involving travel, we are seeing a fine 'controlled explosion' of lawyering
within the EU as France has now sent about 90 Romas (folks from Romania) back
home with $450 dollars and advice to stay out of France.
What makes this so totally Keystone Cops-like is that the EU says people have a
'right' to move around within the EU. Good so far? But then, France
turns around and says "only if you have an economic value and are not becoming a
burden on the state"...so off go the deportation planes and here comes the
What really seems to be going on as a globalist phenom here is that governments
are trying to figure out how many layers of government are needed to run
the world. Everyone at each layer is firmly convinced their layer is
most important and supersedes all.
It's a fine comedy to watch. The cities in Europe have their little
fiefdoms, then there are the districts, and then the countries, and then the
overarching (over-reaching) EU itself.
Seen for what it is, the EU is just the first bastard-child prototyping of One
World Government - an attempt to politically control different people
with different languages, cultures and so on, into a controlled population.
What comes are goes (along with Amero currency rumors) is that other regions are
looking at this, too, hence the periodic talk of a North American Union, which
although not in the headlines here lately, I'm sure is cooking along just like
the globalist TransTexas highway and so forth.
When you mow down the last tree to write about this stuff, it all falls
perfectly back to its original starting point: Why would a free man or
woman subject themselves to the control of others provided their actions were
not directly or in a harmful way indirectly impinging on the freedoms of other?
Simply put, whether it relates to driving, wandering around the face of the
earth, or in my case, trying to figure out how to license a handmade motorized
bike for my personal not-for-hire use, how much respect (and thus fealty) should
be paid at any level?
While I wait patiently for the excesses of government to collapse under their
own weight and come back to the Constitutional basics, it's a comfort to be
short the market which seems to be acting lately like it senses the stress
developing from the internal contradictions which too many lawyers and too many
control freaks tend to generate when they forget who the boss is.
Our NZ Skateboard Report
More follow-up...from our US IT whiz who is in NS:
I got to your daily missive around lunch time. I
download it in the morning before I go to the client and read it on my
laptop during my lunch hour as the client does not allow any external
internet access outside of the .govt.nz domains. Which I may add means that
I have not been able to read up on the particular incident. Not that it
would stop me from having an opinion :)
First some background...
A couple of youtube videos of kids doing 80kph
on a skateboard have been all the buzz here on the news. It was quite fun to
watch these little daredevils (idiots as the local police called them) scoot
around trucks in no-passing lanes shooting down hill on a highway.
However here in the NZ nanny state where health
care is free and rationed the government goes through some serious effort to
reduce the need for health care. Take the stairwell challenge! Hire house
painters (falling off ladders is the number one cause of serious home
injuries.) Quit smoking! Wear seat belts. All advertisements provided at
taxpayer expense. One should not be amazed that they would ticket some kid
for scooting down the street as it is a whole mess cheaper to issue a ticket
than to patch them up when they wrap themselves around a lamp pole or a
Think of it this way, the NZ government has
issued a health derivative to their citizens that assumes all financial
risks associated with a major health event. They are just protecting their
investment by reducing the likelihood of the trigger event.
Welcome to your future!"
Crap! I suppose this means I won't be able to make my own powered
skateboard, either? Damn.....
Ever see one happening?
Amazing video out of Italy that a reader says might help put those reports
in other parts of the world in context...
'Bout Them Bugs
Remember the other day I told you about the folks working corn who noticed a
lack of bugs? Got another report of it:
I'm in southern Oregon - and noticed a mid-west subscriber make note there a
fewer bugs - it's true. We've noticed it too. Definitely fewer bugs this
season. First a friend from the Northern California (Crescent City) coast
asked me if I had noticed it - about two weeks ago, and it's true - there
are fewer bugs. Weird.
Another offers this:
Same up here in the wonderful State of Maine!
(Mainiacs - gotta love 'em - G) And I say wonderful, taxes aside,
because we are truly having the spring/summer of our lives. Beautiful
weather, warm nights, and very little rain. We have noticed:
• A gazillion fewer mosquitoes (yes it’s the state bird up here and yes
• Few if any Japanese beetles, the bane of my grapes, basil, asparagus, etc.
these past 10-15 years
• Ticks, especially deer ticks, seem to be non-existent, so much for the $80
I spent on a 6 month supply of FrontLine!
• And lastly but surely not the least….bats!
Our usual two little nightly visitors, who scour our fields every night seem
to be MIA! Many factors can influence this ecosystem…and one of the biggest
seems to be water. Without if, the lifecycle of bugs and all who depend and
detest them are affected. It’s gotta be some sort of conspiracy! HAARP,
Aliens, GW Bush…somebody, help me out here!
In keeping with our public service mission statement (if you believe that, I
have this bridge....) here's the answer from a reader in the upper Midwest:
"Tell him/her that they all ended up in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. We
started with real good rain, then dropped off for almost a month and a half,
with a new record streak of above 90 days, and most of the time a heat index
of 105 or more. Too hot to tend to the garden right, even after dark, and
the prodigious beans and potatoes from the earlier rains, and we had every
conceivable chomper here looking for a good meal. lol"
You know, in some places if you catch grasshoppers and drag 'em through some
melted dark chocolate....If you don't have time for a trip to Ohio or upper
click here to order chocolate covered crickets online...
Time to go do real work now...see youi tomorrow if you get
www.peoplenomics.com, or Monday if you
don't...Sunday's Peoplenomics report will be posted early - Saturday morning,
too since we'll be traveling this weekend...so plan on extra coffee and time to
read "Move Over Marx..."
Send your comments to firstname.lastname@example.org
Now at Peoplenomics.com
Getting The Future Wrong
Call this the Labor Department Big Lie Report,
if you must. Or, 'Higher Education's Big Lie' as an alternative: I have raised this issue
previously, albeit in short form, as a simple question: If a young
person makes an educated guess as to where the future growth in the
economy will be -based on widely touted government figures - and then
secures an education and training for a field that collapses, is it
morally 'right' for the student to be held accountable for what the
government got wrong? That question is critically important to
millions of US citizens who took the time and money to head for school
and train for areas which looked promising as recently as 2002-2003.
This weekend a romp through the ugly numbers you really have to dig to
find. When you do, the results stink.
To Subscribe, CLICK HERE
Assistance? Click here.
Dream A Little Dream...
If you have an especially vivid dream
that seems to have something to do with the future, please write it down
so others can look it over for possible future/predictive values.
Simple go to http://www.nationaldreamcenter.com/
and click over to the DreamBase - commercial-free and open
The folks at Maxa Research have put
together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa
Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don't usually get all whipped up
about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply
works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was
Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the
on-screen download instructions of simply click:
Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully
functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right
hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and
highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You
computer may run faster.
"Live on $10,000" A
Having a hard time
making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting
point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live
on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic
download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole
thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only
live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if
you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build
Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home
improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and
Pass It On
A different take on
things - that's what you'll find here most mornings. If you know of
anyone who might also like our content, simply click here
and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read, send the
link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't
no such thing as bad press..."
Last week's report is
Thursday August 19, 2010
Web Bots/Around the Ranch
The Return of Catastrophic Climate
I reckon with all the all the rain we had here at the ranch yesterday, folks in
this part of East Texas would feel some kind of solidarity with the people in
Asia who've been plagued with rains, floods, and related land slides over the
past few weeks. But, the rain here was fairly localized.
Still, 2 inches of rain in an hour and 15 minutes is a fair bit, although the
storm which dumped on us didn't make it as far as the 'official' recording
station up at Tyler, Texas before blowing itself out.
Normally, raining at the ranch would not be a thing to take notice of.
still homeless in Pakistan, or
trains running off their tracks in China because of the recent flooding
there which has caused a flurry of
landslides and land movement, what most people fail to realize is that
rain/weather change can add a lot to the cost of things we take for granted as
being perpetually available. Not necessarily.
Take, for example, the cost of apparel. Lots of it is grown and sewn in
Pakistan and the floods have done enough damage to the cotton crop to the
extent that prices are expected to go up.
Not that trains were being derailed China only: There was
a train derailed and plenty of damage up in the area in and around Putnam County
Tennessee overnight. Not likely to get as much press coverage as
the flood warnings this morning in the nation's capitol; people there are a
little more dense. And there are more of 'em per square mile than in
Tennessee, too, come to think of it.
Even if you didn't read Clif's latest take on long-term data sets in the new
"Shape of Things To Come Report" ($10-bucks,
here and worth every dime) the outlook for the next couple of years is for
more and more weather & Ma Nature crap to intrude which implies that along the
way, hillsides will slide, cotton won't grow, and oh, by-the-by, the impacts on
food will be immense and hunger becoming a global reality as the weather evolves
from a four-seasons affair to a two-state marvel of too hot and too cold, too
dry, and too wet.
This is all showing up now, if you're willing to look at it. The Union of
Concerned Scientists issued a press release which you squirrel away in your 'I
told you so" file:
in Russia; Floods in Pakistan and China; High Temps in the U.S. Consistent
with Climate Change Projections
A number of extreme weather events have been
happening around the world this summer, including record flooding in
Pakistan that has killed more than 1,000 people and displaced millions of
others; the worst drought in Russia in decades, which has triggered
wildfires and doubled the daily death rate in Moscow to about 700; and
torrential rains in China, which have caused massive flooding and triggered
landslides that have killed more than 3,000 people.
Meanwhile, here at home, residents in more than
15 states have been sweltering from heat waves that flared in June. Several
East Coast cities experienced record-breaking heat last month, which was the
hottest one on record in Rhode Island and Delaware.
The devastating heat, fires and floods we are
seeing around the world this summer are consistent with trends that
scientists say are caused by global warming, including temperature
increases, increases in heavy precipitation in some parts of the world, and
droughts in others.
The Earth's average temperature has been rising
due to a build up of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere from burning
fossil fuels. According to NASA, 2010 is on track to be the hottest year
ever recorded. And the last decade—from 2000 through 2009—was the hottest
recorded decade since worldwide record-keeping began more than 100 years
After Copenhagen, there's been a fair number of people arguing that climate
change was phony; the evidence says it's not. And there's a contingent
that says New Ice Age is coming - which it well could be - basing their thoughts
the worst snow in a decade in Brazil this winter (down there seasons run
Regardless of how the weather worries play out - flipping too hot, or too cold -
is not the point. The point is that humans do pretty well as long as they
have calories but when they don't, things can turn bad in a hurry.
There's just the tiniest bit of a creaking noise around the foundations of the
global(ist) economic system if you listen and look carefully. It comes in
headlines like "Putin
Bond Demand Sinks as Russia Drought Lifts Prices" and
Time Magazine's "The Curious Capitalist" blog by Michael Schuman which wonders
"If another food crisis coming?"
If the linguistics are right, we're only a week out from the next noticeable
sea-state changes weaseling their way into headlines...with the bigger worries
still out there for Nov. 8-11/12/13th. Granted, food may not lead the way
- yet - but it seems likely to come in the 'worry rotation' with some force in
Nothing to worry bout then? Only if you like to eat. Like this
reader who's noticing more change in the farm lands:
"We were out peeling corn to process last night and noticed there aren’t as
many bugs around. Has anyone else commented on this??? We do see a few but
no where near what there have been in the past. We have a farm with 115
acres of land so are more in tuned to this than others. "
Change is in the air and GMO leftovers are in the ground. Shouldn't be too
hard to connect all these darts. Hmmm...Wonder if there are any
weight-loss companies I could do a long-term short on?
Weekly Job Number
As usual, a Thursday morning highlight for the adrenaline-soaked day-trading
crowd which got caught out with futures higher, but then turning lower with the
jobs report data:
In the week
ending Aug. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial
claims was 500,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised
figure of 488,000. The 4-week moving average was 482,500, an increase of
8,000 from the previous week's revised average of 474,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured
unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Aug. 7, unchanged from
the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted
insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 7 was 4,478,000, a decrease
of 13,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,491,000. The 4-week
moving average was 4,526,750, a decrease of 1,500 from the preceding week's
revised average of 4,528,250.
The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally
adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated
AWIU trigger, was 5.010 million.
About here, I haul out my favorite Robin Landry-ism: "In a Bear Market,
surprises are usually but not always, to the downside..."
Adding to the mess? The
Governator is planning to furlough 150,000 CaliWorkers. The political
needle to be threaded here: How to get the workers to take time off
without pay but bring 'em back just enough to keep them from all hitting the
streets at once.
Notes on Financial MAD'ness
An email from my deflationist pal (Dr.) Jas Jain seems to fity nicely here,
sincere there are all these trial balloons lately about debt forgiveness...
"Remember nuclear warheads race and
proliferation? What kept things between the US and the USSR from going too
far? MAD (mutually assured destruction). Would Capitalist Crooks destroy
their own capital in order to wipe the debt obligations of American dopes,
including the taxpayers? I don’t think so. Dopes who have bet on the US
inflating away its debt are not doing too well, while those of us who have
bet the other way are sitting pretty. I have been a gold bull for the past
13 years primarily because it is insurance against fiat currencies and gold
is now behaving more and more like a currency. Gold could easily go to
$5,000/ounce in a deflationary depression in the US!
Inflating away would be an economic suicidal
move on the part of the US. It ain’t in the cards. Prolonged pain for
American dopes is in the cards, i.e., backed into the cake. During this
period of pain for the dopes Crooks and their agents like Bushes, Clintons,
Gores and Obamas would do very well. Financial derivatives markets of 2010
are not the same as those of 1971 when the US was taken off the gold
standard. The move was not unexpected by the markets. Amazingly, it is lot
harder to inflate, as FDR was able to do on whims, in the absence of the
gold standard! Bernanke wishes a 3-4% inflation rate but he can’t get
there!!!!!!!!! Of course, he can’t utter a word to that effect because that
would trigger a massive problem. The guy doesn’t have much room to maneuver.
He has been turned into a paper tiger, i.e., he is impotent just as I had
So, we sit back with our part gold, part Treasury position and a few selected
shorts remembering what?
It's Only as Game
Speaking of web bot timing models (remember this next week, OK) and such, here's
a sync-wink from Universe, maybe, in this reader note:
"Reading your blog is the 'morning paper' for
me. I love that your wide variety of experience and open mind finds so many
ways in finding linkages between what most people would consider disparate,
In the fall of the empire, I am part of the
circus. Video game sales, in fact. (don't tell anyone that I'm not much of a
gamer! ;)) Anyway, the next installment of the popular Call of Duty series
is subtitled 'Black Ops' and releases on 11-9-10. I find the timing and
title interesting to say the least and thought you might too.
Yeah, damn curious timing, LOL. Move along now, nothing to see here...and
whatever you do, don't go on to read this...
Homeland Security - Gestapo Worries
Emotionally, this is hot, hot, hot. But, go read what former Minnesota
Governor Jesse Ventura is saying about the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
over at the Prison Planet site.
Seems Ventura was trying to shoot some video for a "Conspiracy Theory" episode
at the Kennedy Memorial at Arlington National Cemetery and was barred from doing
No doubt, there are two ways to look at this, depending on your ideology:
Protect the sanctity of the JFK Memorial on the one hand, or recall the quote
attributed to Huey Long (although
it's disputed whether Long said it that way) that "If Fascism came to
America it would be on a program of Americanism."
Or, maybe Ventura is onto something: "The
individual is handicapped by coming face to face with a conspiracy so monstrous
he cannot believe it exists." -so said J. Edgar Hoover, former head of the
FBI now part of what Super Agency?
Don't know if you're interested, but your IT Department have find the
Verizon/US Secret Service 2010 Data Breach (and theft) report worth reading.
A kind of State of the Hacks...
You know you're living squarely in three splitting realities when the word
virus makes you wonder whether you need to update software, see a doctor
about your rowdy raw dog running wild's latest unprotected exploits, or
visit the CDC website to check on pandemics....
Oh, and speaking of rowdy raw dogs on the net, "Cameron
Diaz tops list of riskiest celeb searches" according to McAfee's latest
research...Something about virus...
Oh, check this from over in the egg department -
a recall of
380-million egs in four states.
Watching Obama Bashing
New poll out in
the Washington Post this morning shows 20% of the US thinks president Obama is a
Muslim. He's not, but just goes to show you how a message repeated
often enough morphs into 'reality' for people.
Attention Fiction Writers!
Be looking for
the latest federal budget deficit update today out of Washington.
Here's a dandy trend chart which outlines the problem in case you don't feel
like wading through the whole report to develop a Big Picture sense of things:
Ignore the 'extended baseline' model since that is based on lousy-t0-delusional
assumptions. The CBO alternative Fiscal Scenario is more meaningful by
far: See where it points to bad ---> getting to worse?
In more honest times, we'd be admitting the arrive of Depression 2.
Nowadays, it's just a great recession.
If you have Excel open, build your own chart with the Fed's latest Charge-Off
and Delinquency rates...
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Coping: New Zealand
There's a really interesting case going on in Nelson, New Zealand, caught by our
Canadian editor Tim,
where a skateboarder has been fine NZ$750 for skateboarding in the street.
One the one side, you've got a policeman and on the other, a skateboarder...not
unusual, but in light of the return of sudden catastrophic climate change to the
'hot things to worry about' we notice that this is just slightly nuts.
Remind me to ask our new Zealand skateboarding reader, a former Midwest US IT
Director who (best I can figure) went to NZ, did a 'core dump' of the latest
from the US and then fell victim to the odd sort of nationalism that prevents
too many people from coming to NZ, even if they have hot skill sets for too
But this particular former IT Director for this particular government agency, is
of interest because not only did he ride a skateboard to work every day, but
because of the hills in his town (at the time -Wellington, if I recall right)
were so steep that he rode a motorized skateboard at times. We'll
inquire as to whether - or how much - hassle he got from the local gendarmerie.
All of this serves to demonstrate how government - everything from local to
internationalist governments - get themselves at cross purposes to observed
As you read the problem through, ask yourself does this make sense.,
The world is facing a catastrophic climate change. So we choose one of the
1. One way to reduce pollution is by deregulating anything that that
gets 80 MPG or more. No licenses, no registration - NOTHING.
Hassle-free transport which encourages people to get serious about energy
2. It's really too bad about the climate change which will kill off
crops and leave us all malnourished in a few years, but we can not allow
challenged to Detroit and the auto giants, who we bailed out (and let's not
forget those de facto subsidies for foreign manufacturers in republicorp
strongholds ( like Tennessee, LOL) via state tax breaks. It's more
important to keep up the charade of business as usual and continue the
enforcement mentality of The System.
This is all the more real to me as I have been
looking at one of the Golden
Eagle Bike Engines for one of our mountain bikes. Why? Well, for
one thing, they claim 225 miles per gallon for a 200 pound rider. If I
just lose a little more weight, I won't have to ride around naked to hit that
mileage to weight ratio.
I'd have one today except that in Texas, near as I can tell, even the small
4-stroke Robin/Subaru 25cc engine would turn my bike into what the State
considers a moped, even though I'd be making it myself from a kit. Problem
is that I want something which can be driven on the back roads of the county to
get into town in a leisurely way. According to the Texas State site:
of a moped – A motor driven cycle whose speed attainable in one mile is
not more than 30 miles per hour and that is equipped with a motor that
produces not more than two-brake horsepower. If an internal combustion
engine is used, the piston displacement may not exceed 50 cubic centimeters
and the power drive system may not require the operator to shift gears.
Driver’s license for a moped – A moped
operator’s license is required for operators of mopeds. A person must be at
least fifteen (15) years old to be issued a license to operate a moped. The
department shall examine applicants for that type of license by
administering to them a written examination concerning traffic laws
applicable to the operation of mopeds. Effective September 1, 2009 an
applicant for an original class M license must furnish proof of successful
completion of a basic operator training course prior to the written exam.
All applicable provisions of this Act governing restricted operator’s
licenses for the operation of motorcycles only also apply to moped
operator’s licenses, including provisions relating to the application,
issuance, duration, suspension, and cancellation of those licenses. "
All of which could get me launched on a discussion of how much authority states
should have over what happens on public highways. There's been a
tremendous conflict over whether driving is a right or a privilege.
If driving is a right, then licensing would be different - a kind of
however, even though paid-for by We the People, the authoritarians in government
figure now that they have ownership of highways (possession being 9/10ths of the
law, after all) and can back that up with jail time, guns, and a court-system
that favors their side of any legal argument, that driving is therefore a
privilege which they can permit or license as theyh see
Just sticks in my craw. Since when can't an individual with a little
hustle and willing to invest a little sweat into a project build and operate a
vehicle that's way more in keeping with the global picture?
Seems whether it's a powered bike or a skateboard, it's more important to keep
up the Nanny State mindset of authoritarian control, than just do the right
thing. What a fool I am: I thought that was the whole point in
the first place. Damn, I must be dumb. Who gave away all might
rights on this stuff? Got a bone to pick with 'em.
Wait! I've just come to a Thursday Morning Hallelujah Moment.
"Government's like wine: Good up to a point, but then it spoils."
World's awash in vinegar just about everywhere.
Related transpo note: Seattle
is running out of bike parking spaces. Having to put in more.
From follow-up research on a recent post:
A few weeks ago, you had an article about how
the movie Wall Street seemed to appear after some sort of crash.
Then, in the August 18 edition of your Daily
Update, there was this:
"The predictive linguistics out of
"Shape of Things To Come" report have this big cloud over the global markets
starting around August 24-25th...."
Now, here is where things get interesting: (Wiki
Wall Street Disambiguation page)
* Wall Street (1929 film), directed by Roy
William Neill (released Dec. 1, 1929) Black Tuesday was October 29, 1929.
About 33 days between crash and movie release.
* Wall Street (1987 film), directed by Oliver
Stone (released Dec. 11, 1987) Black Monday was October 19, 1987. About 53
days between crash and movie release.
* Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, a 2010 film
sequel to the above, directed by Oliver Stone (to be released Sept. 24,
2010). If we go 33 days, something could happen around August 22 (a Sunday)
or Monday, August, 23. The average is 43 days of the 1929 and 1987 movie,
the minimum is 33 days and maximum is 53 days on a spread sheet.
43 days from September 24 would have been August
12, 53 days would have been August 2, and 33 days would land on August 22.
Again, just some fun with numbers. Odd how it
seems to fall on what you wrote, though.
Hmmm...Hindenburg Omen, movie schedules, yep, sure all seems to fit.
Dimension Slips, Redux
I know, this week the columns have been a little light on the WuJo - the mental
arts lessons where the woo-woo meets science, but here's one that I just could
resist posting from a reqder down under in Oz:
Hi George, a rather odd thing happened to me
last night. I lost my car, house & office keys about 2 and a half weeks ago.
I had since given up and had most of them replaced. On my way home from work
last night I stopped off at my girlfriend’s restaurant for some dinner. I
had a carry bag with me that I have a satchel and book and a few other
things in. I placed my bag behind the counter and proceeded to have dinner
at a table nearby. I was at the restaurant for half an hour.
When I was ready to leave I walked over to the
counter. On it I saw my girlfriend’s keys and it reminded me of how
frustrating it was not having them. When I leant over to pick up my bag
there they were! My keys were sitting right on top of my bag!
Now obviously I assumed my girlfriend or one of
her staff placed it there knowing it was my bag but I asked all of them and
eventually realised that they were as confused as I was. I have been to her
restaurant numerous times over the last couple of weeks.
Very, very strange, perhaps they slipped into
another dimension for a bit.
All of which is interesting because between the apparent time slips seems to be
the possibility - as one reader p[uts it - that interterrestrials not
extraterrestrials may be what's happening:
In regards to your discussion in today's report
(8/18) about the French ufo report, alien agendas and deals made with
various countries' goverment officials, there exists an alternative
explanation. We know that the PTB = Luciferian, Babylonian Mystery Religion
officionados who would instantly cut a "deal with the Devil" if it meant
furthering their own petty earthly desires. The so-called aliens may very
well be the fallen angels and demons that are described in the bible and in
many ancient legends. The "gods" of ancient cultures or the Annunaki
described in the Sumerian texts are the extraterrestrials of today. In other
words, they are not extraterrestrials, but perhaps interterrestrials. These
aliens may originate from the same place as we do, but are not created in
God's image, so would appear alien to us. Why wasn't the Book of Enoch
included in the bible and what is a common theme throughout that book?
Also, if you haven't seen it, the movie "The
Fourth Kind", which is about real accounts of alien abductions, makes a
connection between the aliens doing the abductions and the Sumerian's
Annunaki. Tres bizarre, but worth the time to watch it when you start to
make the connections...
Please check out
the following website for some very interesting discussion of the
connection between the ET's of today and the biblical fallen angels and
demons of yore.
So how do the two posts relate? Well consider if you will the notion that
as we move out to the 2012 period, the galactic ecliptic may be the place where
one version of reality develops some Swiss cheesy holes into other realities.
The keys disappear and reappear story is of particular interest, but then too,
so is the story a while back about the kid who tossed his keys on the floor
upstairs and later found them the next day downstairs right under the
room where he'd lost them.
About the only thing I'm really sure of is that the internet is certainly
opening up new levels of awareness...One of the dreams posted over at the
National Dream Center is kind of interesting though, long as we're talking about
ET's, holes in reality, and such, especially because it involves water/climate
change, a sort of topic du jour today:
"I was on a computer looking up news and events.
I saw the usual day to day struggle we are presented as "news". A voice said
to me "Do not worry, the end of the world will come when the Great Frog
jumps onto the Earth". The screen was white and a silhouette of a cartoon or
tribal styled frog with a crown slowly lowered onto a matching pillow shape.
The voice continued "As you can see, much of your continent is easily
inundated." The screen changed to a map of the USA that showed mountains and
rivers. As I pressed and dragged a rectangular shape appeared over the
eastern half of the country and a dynamic readout representing average
rainfall appeared showing a number that varied from 45 to 65. The map
changed to show the Amazon, again with no borders, just natural features. In
this case the land was lush and green, as it is today. The same rectangle
shape I dragged across the green of the map showed numbers in the hundreds
on the readout in the middle of it.
My alarm sounded and I woke."
I know the popular buzz on the conspiracy boards goes to reptilians, but
maybe this dream is hinting at something else. Maybe our problems ahead
are thanks to amphibians...
except that maybe instead of working in water and air, like frogs, this
particular form of amphibian works in more than one dimension?
Far fetched, but
some other ideas that come to mind are here...
Wednesday August 18, 2010
"Let's Pretend" Wednesday
We begin this morning by recalling the days of the Mickey Mouse Club on
television when, as youth, we remember Disney Creative had come up with themes
for different days of the week like "Anything Can Happen Day" which set a tone
for a whole hour's worth of kid's programming. And, since it would be a
nice rhyme of vague familiarity, we'll unabashedly borrow the concept and
present today's context for comprehending world events declaring this: "Let's
For our first example, we consider the
stories about how on Tuesday banking execs claimed that they need
more federal guarantees pretending that the banksters haven't already
been to the taxpayer trough before, or, since they have, that we've forgotten
about the people in Washington being hornswaggled and lobbied into ignoring the
Voice of the People. We could pretend that money is less dangerous than
crack, or even heroin, but money's addictive powers trump all powders, liquids
and smokes. But let's pretend.
Another key feature of Tuesday trading was
the federal report out revealing
bankruptcies are up near five-year highs. That should have
scared the hell out of the market - which should have cratered, except that the
market was off doing something else; playing its game of what? "Let's
Then we have to
consider the impact of the Federal Reserve (really neither) report which claimed
that production was up to a preliminary reading of 93.4% in July and that
Capacity Utilization was at 74.8% compared with the previous month's (revised)
74.1%. Heralded as Great News.
The delirium inducing statistical crap was all it took - along with the
conciliatory hype about backing bankster mortgages with more money from [you &
me] the taxpayers to blow the market up nearly 200 points - briefly.
All of which would never have happened if everyone looked at the markets and the
stats like I do - over several years and thoughtful - because if they did,
they'd notice the production numbers were vis-à-vis 2007 data which was the100%
high water mark, which means three years later we're still six point four
percent under those levels, and on the capacity side, we were 10 percent higher
at 85.1% during the 1994-1995 period. Just between us, that isn't
exactly the picture of robust health or much of an economic recovery going on.
But, put your hands together and let me hear you brothers and
sisters! "Let's pretend!" Again? "Let's pretend!"
I usually save my most acerbic comments about the health of the nation's banking
system for Peoplenomics.com subscribers on the weekends, but as long as we're
'going to the couch' to confess our delusions,
let's not forget that FDIC has stepped in to bail out, reorganize, or shotgun
marry off 110 banks this year (so far), and on a branch basis FDIC
has reorg'ed 934 so far this year, way ahead of last years 'to-date' figure of
817 branches at 77 banks. Up 14.3% on a branch basis, or 42.86% on an
institutional basis, but you know what? Despite
the investigation of the Old Southern Bank's failure which cost the government
(i.e.: us) something like $95-mil, "Let's Pretend!"
The predictive linguistics out of
www.halfpasthuman.com's "Shape of Things To Come" report have this big cloud
over the global markets starting around August 24-25th, and further clouds,
possibly of the mushroom variety, over the Nov. 8-12 period with months of
mourning to follow. With reports that Russians will be helping fuel the
Bushehr nuclear reactor early next week, and the headlines in Israel's Jerusalem
Post this morning ("'Bushehr
unrelated to enrichment'" claims from the Iranian side, I'm
compelled to point you at the Google Maps satellite view of Bushehr so you can
print off the 'Before" picture. Might want a high res. screen scrape
just in case it kinda, sorta disappears into a puddle of glass.
the report that one of the Saudi papers is endorsing the military option in Iran.
Is war at hand as a reason to rally? Not in George Land but "Let's
As luck would have it, the theme of this morning's remarks could be applied to
all kinds of stories in the news: Whether it's something big like
the wildfires in
Russia and extreme weather and diaspora going
on in Pakistan where aid trucks are being mobbed while we sop up coffee, and
on to the
Tinsel Town buzz that Dr. Laura is hanging up her radio show. But none
of that really means anything does it? Again, "Let's Pretend!"
National politics has finally broken the social contract, irrevocably.
Elaine mentioned to me just yesterday "Sure seems like these foreign TV news
outfits have it right: Obama hasn't made any major changes from the
Bush administration polices on matters of war or the economy...he's just taken
up the reins and gone down the same path. Where's the change?"
I dutifully explained there has been change: the lobbyist checks
are being written out to the other party now, although I skipped pointing
her to the Washington Examiner piece on how "Obama's
war on lobbyists was just a lot of hot air." Similarly I didn't
the polls which show a majority of Americans disapprove of Obama, but in
a larger sense, the whole Washington mess.
The markets today, having only some minor numbers to consider, may open mixed
and then rally this afternoon, and maybe even into tomorrow before turning down
for the week's end. If you were really worried about maintaining
your life's savings, you would have fled to Treasuries or gold long ago, so it's
a moot point but high drama nevertheless. America is hooked on over-hyped
With several financial channels are reporting more or less the same thing, we
can rest assured that the paper-hangers will find some reason to try and
stampede more of the gullible folks over to the 'great fools' side of equity
ownership. The touts and pimps will say the future's bright, that the
decline to war won't matter, and that somehow the century-long systematic
watering down of America's currency through deliberate inflation isn't a bad
thing. This on-average 2.3% compounded since 1913 isn't really taught,
Around here, we know better. But since it's Wednesday, and I've got a
number of chores to get done, and you might need to really do something around
work today, here's how I think we need to approach this particular Wednesday:
Quakes and No Quakes
Being on edge following the Mariana Islands region quakes, the phone range
yesterday afternoon with a buddy up in the Seattle area calling. "We just
had two, short sharp earthquakes I think..." he told me excitedly.
A couple of F-15's going after what turned out to be a seaplane coming back from
a weekend at Lake Chelan. President Obama was in the Seattle
area and the plane violated presidential airspace. And the lesson
about checking NOTAM's (FAA Notices to Airmen) before every flight is what?
Boom Ahead in India
And why might that be? Oh,
61-trucks with 300 tons of explosives have gone missing in central India,
Chinese news agencies are reporting. Muslim extremists setting up a
'biggie"? Don't be surprised.
A Dear Colleagues Letter
On the Centers for Disease Control website:
Dear colleagues: The ongoing oil spill disaster
in the Gulf of Mexico has the potential to raise food safety concerns about
possible health effects from contaminated seafood harvested from the Gulf.
The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), with other federal and
state agencies are monitoring the seafood supply for signs of oil
contamination. For the seafood to pose a health risk, the food would have to
be heavily contaminated with oil, and would therefore have a strong odor and
taste of oil. Presently, testing of seafood from the gulf is being conducted
by the Gulf States, FDA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
CDC recognizes the importance of anticipating,
monitoring, and responding to public health hazards that may affect human
health. CDC is monitoring for potential illnesses across the United States
that may be associated with exposure to contaminated seafood. Persons who
consume seafood contaminated by oil may experience the following symptoms:
nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and abdominal pain. We understand that these
symptoms are general, and that consumption of contaminated seafood might not
necessarily be the cause.
Seems to me this calls for a letter back:
We're not idiots. Where's the low-level exposure impact study
data over time since that doesn't seem to be available? An MSDS sheet
is not sufficient for 1.8-2.0 million gallons of dispersant in intimate proximity to the food chain
is it? I mean really? Or, are ya'll still hiding behind the
'trade secrets' rule which seems by your actions to trump public health?
PS: OK, we are idiots. But, we do remember the flu shot
=== snip and save section ====
A New UFO Report
Since UrbanSurvival has been around a while (has it been 14-years already?) we
have continued to gather an interesting assortment of contacts around various
here and there places. One of them sent out a summary document (English
lang., .pdf file) that purports to be
a new French study from the International Astronautical Federation.
The sender offered this heads-up: "...it is a rather awkward translation that
fails faithfully to convey the original French idiom and is rife with English
Still, a couple of paragraph (from the four-page summary) certainly seems
a to confirm what conspiracy
theorists have written about since the Truman and Ike UFO occupant meetings back
in the 1950's:
"The Sigma/3AF report finally agrees with COMETA’s conclusion that we are
probably facing an ET presence. That conclusion was quite controversial for
a semi-official study like COMETA back in 1999 and was criticized by many in
the French press. Yet the Sigma/3AF Commission found no quarrel with it.
“Thus, the central hypothesis proposed by the COMETA report still cannot be
rejected up to this day and remains perfectly credible,” they wrote. “Many
documents and materials examined by the authors of this report confirm it.
We have therefore retained, among some others but only as a working
hypothesis, the possibility that most of the craft observed can have a
The report itself (12 pgs) is purported to come from the
www.openminds.tv web site, but the site
wasn't loading right when I checked, but further investigation and more visits
I think the key thing is that all of these developments are circling us back to
the recent work coming out of authors like Leslie Kean in UFOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go On the Record
which (since I'm reading it now) also focuses mostly on the French reports.
Somewhere in here, you might be wondering "Why would an economics
geek/daytrader/marketing guy be so darned interested in UFO's?"
A little common sense, please! As anyone who's spent more than a couple of
years in America's corporate boardroom suites knows, the foodchain is
everything. And, if the UFO reports are correct and there has been
decades long contact going on then it stands to reason that there would have
been some kind of action plan or 'deal' cut between the apes (us) and the
Thus, in order to make intelligent investments in anything it would be
useful to know what the 'deal parameters' were when discussed with the
off-worlders. Everything in the contemporary headlines would change
in fundamental context if the larger agenda was more widely known and discussed.
For example, what IF one world government has been ordered by off
worlders who don't want to deal with 78-billion individual worker bees; I
mean one point of contact would make sense, wouldn't it?
Or, what if some degree of terraforming has been ordered and what if - in turn -
the weather anomalies we're seeing in Europe, Central Asia and South Asia are
all part & parcel of that kind of deal?
Or, what if we've been told in very specific terms "Don't go back to the moon -
it's not yours it belongs to the Federation of whatever the
off-worlders would call it.
Maybe it's idle speculation, since the odds of getting the answer right are low,
but nevertheless, we might find it interesting to at least keep our eyes open
for the larger patterns to work out - just as a splinter or sliver works
itself out over time - out to where it can be observed first-hand and then
That's what this latest flurry of reports seems to be - another inching of the
sliver out...maybe not enough to grab onto it with the tweezers yet (or make the
once-in-a-lifetime investment) but it's more grist for the mill, nevertheless.
On the speculative end? Might just explain why despite the rotation of
political figures in Washington, there's been no fundamental change in
direction. Could it be that world leaders are all operating in a narrow
decision-channel of behaviors where radical solutions and change is actually off
the table, removed by a larger agenda set by off-worlders who happen to have the
ultimate high ground?
Worth thinking bout now and then because, as this morning's column started off,
there's just too damn much going on which takes a "Let's pretend" basis to come
anywhere near making sense. Maybe with more than half the population on
drugs, (curiously many are fluorine derivatives, right up through toothpaste)
pretending may be all leaders need to do in order to carry out some 'other
agenda'. We've been blinded and bound without permission.
Just wish we could all noodle out what that agenda might be. Troubling. in
the meantime, is the answer to the question: "Is there anyone or any
organization that you'd trust to cut a deal with off-worlders?"
Nope, none come to mind for me, either.
Perhaps I had shouldn't have mentioned the groundswell of new data on this
Let's pretend, instead.
Tuesday August 17, 2010
The Mythical Recovery, Redux
Before we get into the morning dose of 'numbers served up fresh' which will
drive the market somewhere (if not crazy), let's look at some of the early West
Coast Port Data coming in.
Port of Long Beach shows total containers
inbound was up
32.5% in the month of July compared to July of last year. While that
could be construed as a positive for the economy, the fact that loaded
outbound was only up 16.4% for the month suggests that the Balance of Trade
picture may not be getting much better - and indeed, could be getting worse as
we hit the bean this morning.
Same whiff coming out of the Port
of Los Angeles numbers: Inbound in July was up 21.02% compared with a
year ago, while the outbound was only up 5.86%. Again, bad news in the
spread may be implied for the Balance of Trade, and what that means could
be pressure to print up money and that in turn may be fueling the increase we've
seen since the first of the month in the price of gold.
Inbound up at the
Port of Oakland
was up 16.8% for the month and overall activity was up only 16.3% in July
compared with the more robust 21% increase seen in June.
Oakland, by the way, is a neat port to watch because their past years
performance is shown on the same page making it easy for the
not-yet-coffee-soaked writer (played by care to guess who?) doesn't have to do a
lot of deep thinking to figure out that Oakland's biggest year ever in terms of
container cargo was 2006, which corresponds to the peak in the housing bubble
and such. Call me lazy, but I notice these things.
But of more significance is that based on the YTD total for July, extrapolating
things out for the balance of the year, Oakland oughta come in about 2,228,861
twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU's) for the year.
If you've been sucked in to the right/left politico's ridiculousness, and you're
a democorp, you might be tempted based on the Oakland data to conclude things
will there be up 8.9% overall since last year. And you'd be telling the
On the other hand, equally true, it could be said with a straight face that no, this
is still down 6.8% compared with Oakland's operations in in 2006, which
would be fine grist for a republicorp-led round of Obama-bashing.
The wizened market participant, or anyone with a 401(k), would have to look at
the data and conclude, as we've just demonstrated here, that the condition of
the country depends almost entirely on where you want to start counting from.
If you start counting from 2007 or 2008 things are arguably still bad,
but, if you count from 2009, especially if you're thinking back on March of last
year when the markets were totally in the crapper, you can argue this has been
an amazing rally. Somewhere off in the background, try to ignore the
cynical guys like me who point out that although 10,302 on the Dow Monday looks
really good compared with March of 2009's 6,627 or so,
A check of historical data (weekly Dow, 1999) shows the Dow traded through this
range the week of April 12. Worse, just to keep even with the insidious
inflation underway in America, you'd need the Dow to be at 13,585 just to
maintain purchasing power equivalency with 1999. But, I digress; you
probably don't want to think about it, having swallowed the "It's a whopping
554.% gain since March 2009, fer cryin' out loud!"
Only if you were out...and except for the predictive linguistics around here in
2008, I doubt most brokers/money managers called their clients and put them
short or on the sidelines on the way down.
So we come back to the first - but biggest - point of the day: The unit
volumes (or inflation-corrected price) - is the only honest way to
make any kind of economic assertion and have it mean anything. The
month-to-month perturbations in the market essentially add up to mental
masturbation with the objective of parting you from your dough.
As I've mentioned a couple of times now, the market put in a Hindenburg Omen
(read yesterday's report if you missed it) and we're quickly coming up to what
I'd suggest may be considered The Kurzweil Paradox of Economics.
"What the hell's that, Ure?"
Well, goes like this: We can agree to begin with that one of the most
overworked concepts in modern economic/BizSpeak is Ray Kurzweil's notion that The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
is going to show up, right?
"Get to the point; we exactly ain't paying by the word here..."
(Let me look into that...) OK: Well, there's this ugly problem (worse than my great-great-great
grandfather's PR issues, since
he was the inspiration for the novel Frankenstein) could have ever
imagined: We're about to run out of jobs for humans at just about the same
moment that we need to be creating jobs like crazy to put all these newly
unemployed people back to work so they can pay taxes.
The problem is amplified in this dandy Howard Hill piece "We
Robot" which mentions the human-replacement problems in the auto
industry (for one) and brings up the ugly question (once again, if you fire off
some neurons) "Who really got bailed out"? The workers, or the machine
The reason this is so critically important to start thinking about is that ever
since the Industrial Revolution got underway, there's been this notion that
humans ought to be taxed, but not only should machines be taxed at lower rates,
companies are allowed under tax laws to write down a machines' value over time
to zero (in as little as one year under
But human capital is not treated the same way. In fact, if humans were
treated like most machines, they'd be written off in 10-year or less. Why,
we'd be paid for our 'useful life and then go fishing. I suppose the
wholesale firings that accompany depressions, like the one we're arguably now
in, may be the functional equivalent, except we starve and no time for fishing.
But it brings me to the larger question of "Shouldn't we be taking the machine
output, which would be a form of production tax on machine owners so that
workers who are displaced may be provided for?"
Howard & I started a conversation yesterday about how far the tax rate (on
humans) could be pushed as we make the difficult transition to what could be
a democratic socialist middle ground between outright communism and runway
world-wreck irresponsible free traders who are only in it for the thing that
matters most to them: Money in their pockets so that their
culture of Elitism may flourish. After all, no point being uber-rich
if everyone is...they actually need the downtrodden and oppressed so they
can claim superiority and some God-given "divine right to rule" crap when the
truth of the matter is their on a hopeless ego trip featuring an inability to
share and share alike and so forth. But again, I digress.
Our main stage feature is the Producer Price Index and how you want interpret
this, or the housing numbers to follow depends almost entirely where you want to
stand as your statistical vantage point. Things are either getting better,
or we're still stuck in Depression Two.
May I have the envelope, Please?
"The Producer Price
Index for Finished Goods rose 0.2 percent in July, seasonally adjusted,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This advance followed a
0.5-percent decline in June and a 0.3-percent decrease in May. At the
earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of
intermediate goods moved down 0.4 percent in July and the crude goods index
rose 2.7 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods advanced
4.2 percent for the 12 months ended July 2010, their ninth consecutive
Well, crap. I always skip on to the crude goods level to see if inflation
or deflation is in the pipeline:
"Crude energy: The index for crude energy
materials advanced 4.5 percent in July. From April to July, prices for crude
energy materials moved up 0.8 percent subsequent to a 10.9-percent drop for
the 3 months ending in April. The monthly increase in July was almost
entirely the result of an 11.7-percent jump in the index for natural gas.
Prices for coal also contributed to the crude energy goods increase, rising
1.2 percent. (See table 2.)
Crude foods: The index for crude foodstuffs and
feedstuffs rose 3.3 percent in July. For the 3- month period ending in July,
crude food prices moved down 2.8 percent. This decline followed a
3.5-percent increase from January to April. About a third of the July
monthly advance can be attributed to prices for corn, which jumped 14.6
percent. An increase in the index for slaughter cattle also contributed to
the rise in crude food prices.
Crude core: The index for crude nonfood
materials less energy decreased 1.4 percent in July. From April to July,
crude core prices fell 7.6 percent following a 9.7-percent advance in the
previous 3-month period. Leading the July monthly decline was a 6.7-percent
drop in the index for iron and steel scrap. A decrease in the index for
wastepaper also contributed to lower crude core prices.
Oh-oh...inflation. You saw a week or so back where
Wal-Mart had raised its prices about 6-percent in one month in one study
(Virginia)? Flip side: WMT profit is up and heading higher says their
those wider aisles, thinner inventory levels and such are paying off.
(Does your team cheer three times a day?)
No rah-rah in the Housing report this morning, though:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits
in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 565,000. This is 3.1
percent (±2.0%) below the revised June rate of 583,000 and is 3.7 percent
(±2.2%) below the July 2009 estimate of 587,000.
Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of
416,000; this is 1.2 percent (±1.2%)* below the revised June figure of
Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more
were at a rate of 129,000 in July.
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 546,000. This is 1.7 percent (±9.7%)* above the
9.7%) revised June estimate of 537,000, but is 7.0 percent (±7.5%)*
below the July 2009 rate of 587,000.
Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of
432,000; this is 4.2 percent (±8.7%)* below the revised June figure of
The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more
Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000. This is 32.8 percent (±6.8%)
below the revised June estimate of 874,000 and is 25.4 percent (±7.3%) below
the July 2009 rate of 787,000.
Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of
490,000; this is 27.5 percent (±7.6%) below the revised June rate of
676,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was
So here's my question: If housing starts are so crappy, why are building
material prices so damn high for projects around the ranch, huh?
If this is a recovery, the statistical bumps along the way seem wildly
Bolton's Timeline for War
There are reports that
once upon a time UN rep John Bolton says Israel has until August 21st to
attack Bushehr, down the road from the Persian carpet makers in Iran.
I didn't like his worldview before and even less now. The SF Chronicle's
site reporting that "Iran
Threatens Israel's Existence if it Attacks" is certainly cause for pause.
But even more reason: The Russians have crews helping out with the fuel
loading, we presume. Bigger question (which blows up into global war
around November 8-12?) is therefore, how's Russia going to respond when their
reactor workers are offed in the attacks? Do they just sit idly by?
Not hardly. So maybe the
dominionists will get their bigger war after all.
Remember the Diaspora Meme?
Earlier this year, it wasn't clear to me how Clif's linguistic predictions about
huge diaspora (millions upon millions) moving about Asia would ever come to pass
this year. But now that millions upon millions are homeless, moving
being stricken now with diseases like cholera, I can see it, and imagine you
Coming to Get Our Food
A reader with a sharp eye sends this about the UK Daily Mail article under the
to ban selling eggs by the dozen: Shopkeepers' fury as they are told all food
must be weighed and sold by the kilo", noting:
was under the impression that the UK was NOT part of the EU. If they are not
part of the EU, why are they allowing this? Here Senate bill 510/ HR
2749 is not too far behind."
It's really all quite simple and been coming for a long time...the toil all day
for a measure of wheat and a measure of oil has been written of for what, 2000
First We Taken Menhaden
(With apologies to Leonard Cohen for the poor pun of his "First we take
South Jersey shore towns are starting to clean up what are thousands upon
thousands of tiny fish that have washed up due to an oxygen deprived dead
While the conspiracy boards are all a-twitter (sorry) with theories about how
this might some way be linked to the BP spill, a quick Google search shows high
killing fish in Illinois, Topeka,
South Carolina recently.
Hide The Sausage Department
I don't know if you've
seen it, but the
LA Times is running a series on the quality of education in the SoCal area.
At the same time, the Times reported this weekend that
"Union leader calls on L.A. teacher to boycott Times".
The teacher union official's comments about judging quality by a test is
interesting hereabouts because of our focus in the in-depth Peoplenomics report
this past weekend about how despite 'selling' of higher education, it hasn't
changed the fact that there are now more humans vying for each job out there and
the major change in the demographics of the US workforce since 2000 is that more
and more people are entering the workforce with a $20,000-$40,000 (or higher)
debt loads on their backs.
Not only does the report outline the dismal performance of job forecasting
9which has fallen short of projections) but with a little easy one plus one
equals thinking, you can see that one of the major reasons for the Housing
Crisis (ongoing) is that so few young people can get well-paying jobs and their
student loan debts are killing the country slowly.
Especially when the elites have no real answer to the Johnson administration
sleight of hand (sleight of free lunch is more like it) that
put Social Security
into the general fund to pay for 'entitlements' and there went that money.
So, instead of a Great
Society today we have instead a depression unfolding with people who
ought to be retiring now working to 72 and beyond and kids swamped with
inescapable (even through bankruptcy) debt, but you probably figured that part
Thanks Washington. NOT : Vote 'em all out in November.
Looking for a Worthy Goal
I know I've ragged on this point a lot lately, bemoaning how America lacks a
higher goal... but go read the comments of sci-fi genius Ray Bradbury.
calling for a revolution of the peaceful and gets us somewhere kind....
===== snip and save section =====
Life In The Alternate Reality
A email from a friend of mine last week (or so) began "Say ya'll..." and then
launched into an explanation of proper Southern grammar saying what he really
intended was to say "Say, all ya'll..." but that's the first thing that came to
my mind when confronted to two realities and a good old saying on Tuesday.
There I was making plans for our little escapade (albeit not in an Escalade) up
to Oklahoma this weekend when I discovered that I may have found undeniable
proof that reality has split, but not evenly.
Seems on Google's map of how to get to our hotel up that-a-way, the hotel we'll
be staying at is south of the freeway (I-40). On the other hand,
the Gatesian Streets and Trips (with GPS, although I don't get lost too often in
my office here except when I'm really in the absent minded writer mode) insists
that no, the hotel is on the north side of I-40.
I must have spent 5-minutes twisting my head, this way and that, trying to find
the error of my ways. But, time being money and all, and besides by now I
was perspiring and my neck was kinking up; I decided to call the hotel.
A helpful young lady answered and I posed my Big Question.
"Yeah, I kinda noticed that the other day when I was looking up a gym..."
"So are you north or south of I-40?"
Aha! Google apparently (at least during the part of the day when I was
looking at it disagreed about where this hotel was really.
As a precaution, I sent this note to Robin Landry, so that he could have his
friends up there all wear seat belts at work today, in case of any discomfort
while Google gets the hotel moved.
Well, that was fine. And then I got to talking to my brother in law
(Panama Bates) about his excursion Saturday to the Gun Show up in Tyler, Texas.
Turns out pistol prices have been going through the roof, and we then had the
usual debate about whether a .22 pistol is good for anything other than
noisemaking, but Bates is convinced they have their place. Not only did
his Grandfather shoot two deer at once with a .22 LR round up in the mountains of
Arizona where he and Elaine grew up, but he also noted that the .22 was the
assassination weapon of choice in WW II, something most people don't think about
during wars, as such actions didn't get turned into a lot of movies.
I opinioned that I wouldn't trade my Ruger 9 MM for much of anything and while
my Glock's a nice piece of plastic, it's not nearly as 'steady feeling' as the
And then he stopped me cold...
"You should have seen all the new colors they have, too..."
"Guns? What do you mean colors, Bates?"
"Well just that: They had little .22 and .380 pistols and autos in
just about every shade you could imagine...whole rainbow of colors.
There were pinks, reds, blues, some oranges and even a nice emerald
I was afraid that American marketing would eventually come to this, but there I
was...jaw dropped to the living room floor stunned by the surreality of it all:
People buy guns to do one thing...which is what? Kill other people which
oughta be a last resort.
But the idea of drilling someone with a .22 that to blue, or a mean green
.380...well...it just shows to go you that people are getting progressively
unattached to the reality of what killing people are all about.
Can you imagine the implications of this? I must be super slow - losing my
edge as a marketing guy for not seeing the potential of this earlier when I
think it was Cheaper Than
Dirt has a pink cammo stock Remington had caught my eye a while back.
Remember thinking "Hmmm...pink?"
They apparently had yellows, golds, browns...call me a traditionalist but it
just don't seem right. I swear we've dropped into an alternate
reality that features rainbow-colored guns. Why, seems to me this is a
plot to put more and more colored guns out which will then be played with
more by kids, which will then give the gun control lobby more reason to round up
the Second Amendment rights we held dear....but that was long ago, eh, Comrade?
I suppose, if I have to go by gunfire some day, going with a nice puce piece
would be good...I could go out laughing, because everyone knows that doesn't go
On last Southern phrase wells up: "I'll be dipped & rolled in it..."
You think it we sprayed everything in the Army's inventory pink, we could kill
Taliban more effectively? Get 'em while they're laughing...
Smells in Florida
Had several people report from the south Florida region on Monday that they
could smell something - no one was sure what - but something out
of the ordinary following heavy rains down that way:
I am in Southwest FL. Yesterday (Sunday) and
today, but mostly yesterday morning there was definitely a chemical smell to
the air. My husband smelled it also. It smelled, to me, like agricultural
chemicals such as you would notice in the garden section of a store. This
was accompanied by two days of body aches and pains. I have felt like I have
been poisoned. I chalked it up to chemtrails. Here, lately, when they spray,
it is usually overnight, and at high altitudes. I can always tell when they
have been spraying even before I get out of bed in the morning by how I
feel. i just looked at a website called
and the person who put the website together described the exact same
symptoms that I have been experiencing due to these chemtrails. I am ready
to leave the country because of the spraying, but to where?
hard finding a good spot. The Diaspora Handbook, parts 1 & 2 is in the
Peoplenomics subscriber library with some strategies and also of interest may be
buying a sailboat and heading to the southern hemisphere. Ideas in the
January 2009 article "Retirement
Dream: Escape to the Sea - A Good Idea?" will get you started.
Oh, but no worries about South Florida, especially since government now says
things are safe....
Something Reptilian Here?
On the NOAA site: "New
scales help public, technicians understand space weather." Oh, not
those kinda scales. Check. Pass me the Reynolds Wrap.
But the Real Worries Are...
....summed up in this email:
Hi Mr. Ure,
You may be interested in John Young's recent comments on surveillance,
privacy, disinfo etc:
(Link to site)
For example, on the policy of government disinformation, and also of
'secret' and 'top secret' security classifications, Young says:
“‘Top Secret’ is no longer “top secret”, ‘Secret’ is no longer “secret”,
these are now throw-away terms. There’s something called ‘National Security
Information’ that does not get out, and you will not see it on the internet.
[...] Governments are the biggest leakers in the world, the US government
leaks far more information than Wikileaks will ever be able to handle.
Leakage is now a policy, and it is meant to divert attention from the other
stuff — of “the dark side” I call it — which you will not ever see on my
site or on Wikileaks. [...] There are some things that are so classified
that you don’t even know how they’re classified, you don’t know the terms
that are used to classify them.”
If you're interested in this sort of stuff, the podcast with Sibel Edmonds
Best regards to Zeus,
Foolish as I am, I believe an honest man still has nothing to fear in America,
provided -- he doesn't rock the boat too much. The only ones who need to
worry are probably the ones with 'game changer ideas'...thinks like Tesla and
his machines, Reich with his orgone devices and....oh-oh, those who can see into
the future.... Hmmm....
Well, I'm going to go fire a few neurons off for a client today...check local
regulations, firing neurons inside an incorporated area may be illegal.
Say, that would cover any of us corpgov
chattel anywhere in
the whole country, wouldn't it? OK, "Thinking Optional Tuesday" then.
Don't want to rock the boat too much.
Monday August 16, 2010
'What Went Up" Week
Mondays are usually exciting, but there's something particularly interesting
about this Monday. For one thing, the price of gold started off
with a nice $7 pop to the upside when I looked. "Excellent!" went
the Monty Burns voice in
the back of my mind. Note to self: Consider renaming Zeus the Cat "Smithers".
Holding a boatload of short positions, the AP headline "Stock
market apt to stay difficult for some time" set off another character voice,
this one going "Yabba-dabda-doo!"
There was also a brief "Ah-OOOO-gah" of a submarine's diving klaxon in there,
A quick glance at the
picture in Europe this morning showed a kind of mixed bag, with the UK and
Frenchies being down, while the Deutschers were up a tad, and the barest little
tad at that.
Starting off the week will be the NY Fed's Empire Manufacturing report, which
has something to do with work in the northeast, although the double entendre
with the US off manufacturing empire in the Middle East wouldn't be a bad play
Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions improved
modestly in August for New York manufacturers. The general business
conditions index rose 2 points from its July level, to 7.1. The new orders
and shipments indexes both dipped below zero for the first time in more than
a year, indicating that orders and shipments declined on balance; the
unfilled orders index was also negative. The indexes for both prices paid
and prices received inched down, while employment indexes were positive and
higher than last month. The six-month outlook weakened; though future
indexes were generally still positive, many fell in August, with the notable
exceptions of the future employment and capital expenditures indexes, which
climbed after falling last month.
In a series of supplementary questions,
manufacturers were asked about their capital spending plans. Looking ahead
to the next six to twelve months, 37 percent of respondents indicated that
they expected to increase capital spending relative to its level in the past
six to twelve months, while just 13 percent planned reductions. Of those
predicting increased capital spending, 27 percent noted that "a considerable
fraction" of the increase reflected investment that had been postponed
because of the recession; 41 percent of respondents had given this same
response in a similar survey back in January.
Another 46 percent of those surveyed this month
attributed "some" of the spending increase to the recession. The most
commonly cited factors behind increased investment were high expected growth
in sales and a need to replace capital goods other than IT (information
technology) equipment. The most widely cited factors behind steady or
decreased capital investment in the current survey were low expected sales
growth, low capacity utilization, and limited need to replace non-IT capital
Next: The Treasury Long-Term TIC flows will be out in a moment or two, but
that's one of those numbers you can save for a time when you're having trouble
getting to sleep. They oughta work just fine and they're NOT habit
Tomorrow, we'll into a full-blown numeric frenzy with more numbers than you can
shake a pop-up calculator at: Housing Starts and Building Permits will
roll in, along with the Producer Price Index in the pre-open, then at 9:15 the
Fed will roll Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization out, which I reckon
will be flat (or within statistical noise, just to confound the FOMC further -
like that's possible).
And speaking of the confounded FOMC:
China seems to be getting more bullish on Europe and less so on the US according
to a Bloomberg piece worth reading, especially if you play FOREX, which I
stay away from like the plague, since you can get killed with either.
The quants get a day of rest since with the exception of an oil inventory number
Wednesday, it'll be quiet,. Bleeding economic indicators Thursday morning
and basically nothing on Friday. If you're looking for a three-day weekend
ahead of the Labor Day herd, this might be a good one to burn a day of
comp time on. No comp time? Oh, that got outsourced, too, I
Robin Handler's Options Signal Service
summed up the arrival of "The Hindenburg Omen" last week this way:
Since this has been a kind of buzz 'round the net', it's now being pictured
elsewhere as heralding the "Financial Doom" of American and other statements
along those lines. I'd remind you that collapse is not a single event,
it's a process - and we just happen to be in it.
Slow as this morning is likely to be, I think I'll have another split shot
Americano tall and try to figure out where all the cartoon voices in my head
came from. I can figure out the sub klaxon without help.
The War Pool
If I were a betting man, I'd bet the August 25th through 28th period will be a
meltdown of some of Europe's banking (again) rather than an attack on Iran by
the West. Still, could be interesting in light of
the military maneuvers which are gearing up off North Korea this week.
If you'd like to follow North Korea's side of things, you can click over to
PCWorld and get their twitting details here; maybe they learned a thing or
three from the US using Twitter during the Iran internal protests a while back,
Also,. there have been
some internal political maneuverings going on which are leading to some
speculation about Who's Who in line of succession in NK, as differentiated
from the Who's Hu of China.
But while GTNW (global thermo-nuclear war) is not likely over North Korea.
Iran, on the other hand - second week of November, or so - is a different deal,
entirely. There's a lot of detail about how all that seems to be headed
for a blow-up second week of November when it'll be lame ducks galore in
Washington per the new "Shape of Things To Come" report from
www.halfpasthuman.com which was
released Sunday morning. $10-bucks and worth it; just don't eat first.
Not happy stuff.
But even without the benefit of the plays spelled out there, we see Iran
continuing to paint what are effectively larger and larger bull's eyes on its
Jerusalem Post, for example in today's online edition headlines "Iran to build
third plant". Geniuses.
So if you're in the office "Next Big War" pool, I'd talk up the idea of a Korea
Peninsula showdown, but only as a tool to get the pot a little bigger, and I'd
stick with the November 8-12 period for the real deal in the M.E.
As a kind of fine-tuning mechanism I'd be keeping an eye on copper futures on
price sites you look in on, like INO.com here.
Food Hikes Are Coming
Sometimes those Shape of Things to Come reports from Clif just absolutely nail a
coming trend in an amazing way. Example: I've been telling you for the
better part of a year to what? "Put in a damn four-seasons garden!!"
More than a few people called me "Fear-mongering alarmist!" when
the truth of the matter is that even a junior time monk learns to live a
year into the future. So, when the stories started appearing lately about
all the crop failures in Europe and out of the
Wisconsin Ag Connection, the headline was " August Crop Forecast: Corn &
Soybeans could See New Records" we'd already ordered our greenhouse and will
get it set up in coming weeks.
If you don't have it handy, you might want to
bill 510 which is the "FDA Food Safety Modernization Act" which by some
reads would make it illegal for individuals to grow their own food, save seeds,
or share it with others. Wonder how much dough the chemical farming/GMO
crooks poured into this one? Oh well, levers at the read to vote out the
co-sponsors in what, twelve weeks, or so?
Related Article: "Raids
Increasing on Farms and Food Supply Clubs."
Is this the part where I say "Quick! Look surprised!"?
how active the USGS Quake List has been the past couple of weeks?
Got an email from some outfit this morning referring to the "7.2 Marianas
Earthquake" over the past week. Biggest I could find
on the USGS site was the 6.9 quake in the Marianas subduction region, but
personally, I find the USGS
rated 7.1 in Ecuador last week potentially more meaningful: Chile
quakes, then Ecuador...are they moving north?
Other sites may have slightly different magnitudes reported and, as the emailed
evidences, slightly higher quake ratings, but we will stick with the USGS
numbers. The surest way to get data wrong is to use multiple sources which
may lead to inaccurate impressions.
Related Development: A
new (previously undiscovered) fault down int he Haiti area....
Don't Let the Bed Bugs Bite
Hmmm...maybe bed bugs are drawn to fresh apples...Big Apples...yeah...dats dah
ticket...that'd explain why
1 in 10 New Yorksters have had bedbug problems, right?
Not MY Zeus
No connection between my editor (Zeus the Cat - ZtC) but just to be sure,
I have taken his computer administrator rights away since a reader sent in the
Trojan steals $1 million from U.K. bank accounts..."
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Weekends and Movies
Seems like that
new Sly move (The Expendables) is doing very well at the box offices around
the country. May have to go see it one of these days. Salt was
pretty good as was Sorcerer's Apprentice before that. Trying to keep up on
movie-going may be one of the last affordable hobbies.
I've put my quest for an airplane on hold for a while. Too hot to fly
without air conditioning, and the planes that come with a/c are a LOT more
expensive to fly. Oh, sure, once you get up to altitude (if you're going
somewhere, that is) the temps come down...at the rate of about 3-4 degrees per
thousand feet of altitude, BTW. Still, when it's 99 on the ground and
you're staying in the pattern, the effect is more like broiling under one of
those halogen light cooking rigs.
The only sensible way to fly in Texas, new Mexico, Aridzona, and the rest of the
south in the summer is plan a cross-country trip of several hundred miles,
leaving at first light and getting up to cruise altitude as quickly as possible.
Then, when comes time to land, make as quick a descent as possible to avoid heat
Coming to some of these realizations, I've decided to go on a couple of fcar
trips. They may be slower, but should be fun, nevertheless. And the
a/c in Elaine's car is great. Our first weekend 'mini' will be up to
Oklahoma to see Robin Landry & his wife. Robin and I will no doubt be
spending most of the time going over minute differences in how we count the
market moves here lately.
Then, a week or two later (right after school starts) we're throwing darts at
places to visit. One, on my list is Mount Rushmore, which somehow doesn't
have my likeness chiseled in the rock yet. But we're open to suggestions.
The criteria should be fairly simple: Where's a good place to go for
splendid eye treats? And within a reasonable drive from the midst of East
Texas, too. Don't recall seeing a central US poll of best places to visit.
Done caves, mountains and much of the West. 600 mile limit, please,
although I am aware that Rushmore's a bit further, 1220.1 miles according to the
Gatesian navigation software.
Been thinking about making a loop of it: Memphis and Nashville for blues
and some country on the eastern side of the loop, a pizza an d steak festival in
Chicago, then come down the Western side through the Flaming Gorge park to Grand
Junction, then on to Silverton-Durango if I can get train tickets.
We've got people to see in New Mexico, not to mention the Hill Country northeast
of San Antonio, so not like once we get out on the road we couldn't just do a
big amble of things. Living in cheap, but hopefully not bed bug-infested
hotels, would be in keeping with one of Pappy's greatest observations about the
prices people pay for hotel rooms when traveling: "Once you close your
eyes and go to sleep, they are all pretty much the same regardless of price..."
That's when I started figuring that the difference between a $750 a night hotel
and a $250 a night hotel was $500 amortized over about 4-hours of being awake
and in the room. Coffee's pretty much the same in either case, and yes,
you might get a $10-breakfast thrown in with the $750 room, but I can buy
breakfast for 2-months on the difference.
Idle planning, at least for now, but once the weather cools off a bit, I'm
starting to get that 'get up and look around' feeling. Haven't done much
of it for a number of years and there's something therapeutic about looking at
the country from more than one perspective.
Maybe we just need to buy a company somewhere that's cool in the summer and then
spend half our time at one end of the country, and half at the other.
That'd make the most sense and makes one, or the other, all a business trip.
Had a reader call form Miami about 6:10 this morning with a curious observation:
"Have you had any other reports from the Miami area of people smelling oil
or something unusual in the air this morning? I have a good
filtration system in my apartment and the filter has some activated charcoal
in it, but when I went outside there was a definite scent of something -
just a whiff that you got used to pretty quick - and I'm wondering since wee
had a good rain yesterday if you have had any other reports?"
Nope, first one, so far. But the reader asked if other people in the South
Florida area are noticing anything today, especially if they go from an air
conditioned/filtered building into the outside air, or if it was just his
imagination playing tricks. But, if that was the case, how come someone he
was with also smelled it and mentioned it?
So, wonders a foreign press outfit,
Did president Obama go for a swim in the Gulf, or not?
Say: One reason this morning's column is a little ,shorter than usual is that a
certain software/fire wall outfit sent me a billing for $64.95 for a recurring
license. Which would be fine, but I didn't recall having a subscription to
renew automatically and let them pull funds out of PayPal without my specific
OK. I am one of those tight-fisted people that doesn't believe in
recurring subscriptions and even encourage Peoplenomics subscribers to canel
theirs so that my system can invite them to renew - not renew and then
issue a refund if someone doesn't like it.
Anyway, I'm curious how many other people are finding an issue with 'billing
agreements' that were not authorized as a subscription. A logical
follow-on question is whether such companies may be running into hard financial
timers such that risking such a customer relations boondoggle would make sense,
but I suppose we'll never actually know on that one.
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed
during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the
talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that
actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had
conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the
Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug.
Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers
and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a
long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics
subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the
peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929,
we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the
chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of
1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth