Powered by subscribers to Peoplenomics.com
Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time ....some typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
This site is supported by subscriptions: For additional content, please subscribe to Peoplenomics. .
The Saturday Reminder:
This being the weekend all the good stuff is for subscribers to www.peoplenomics.com. Your choices are a) subscribe by clicking here, b) Come back here Monday for more free stuff or c) Both of the above. I suppose you could have a d) neither of the above, but you're a curious sort so I reckon a, b, or c are more likely...
Psychos On The Street
While skimming through Paul Ferrell's post "Wall Street Psycho: 15 signs of moral and ethical pathology, soul-sickness" related to how the investment world works, I was particularly struck by the observation that "Moral Issues are PR glitches" since a lot of what crosses my desk is PR-related.
Take, for example, the Federal Reserve's press release Thursday about "neighborhood stabilization"...
I found - while reaching for my extra-large ViceGrips with which to pinch myself - thinking "So rather than fix the problems, they're now passing out strategies on how to live with this new, lower, standard of living on an on-going basis?"
Not that the Second Depression is coming on too quickly; it's just taking its own sweet time about destroying the world. Japan was up almost one percent overnight, Europe hasn't been falling (for a change), and speaking of 'Ben", the Fed Boss hisself is in speechifying today.
So while we wait on that, the new GDP figures are out:
What really matters is constant dollars and relative performance, so here's the deal in chained 2005 dollars: YoY we're up 2.978% compared with W2 2009, but tracking still 0.47% where constant dollar GDP was back in 2007.
So did we all just work three years for nothing?
Did I exit prematurely from my paper short position, you're wondering, since the bounce at the open was quickly followed on the downside Thursday? Only if we take out the intraday low of Wednesday (Dow 9,925.34). Otherwise I'm out with a reason which might become apparent today or Monday/Tuesday. This is not investment advice, however.
Still: Stocks are headed for a slightly higher open today and I'm still optimistic about going short come the middle of next week. Still, being up 21.9% for the YTD in paper is not nearly as cool as seeing gold creep back toward $1,250 and silver's quietly moved above $19...
Super Quake Watch
A couple of readers have asked if I've noticed anything odd out of some of the seismographs up around Yellowstone. You mean like this one? Not a big deal...hopefully, and nothing big enough to show up as a worry-point on the USGS monitor map for the area...
On the other hand, the continuous (more or less) quaking, like the 3.1 this morning down in the currently below sea level area of the Imperial Valley in California? Different problem....
Gone With the Wind
At the National Hurricane Information Center, where tracking Hurricane Danielle - now up to category 4 has been ongoing - people aren't getting too excited, since it seems to be destined to turn around to the northeast and blow itself out well out to sea. Unless you're in Bermuda...
NOT Gone With the Wind
Interesting Apple iPhone/iPad software in the works. Seems Apple wants to be able to shut down a user's iWhatever if they access product not sanctioned by Apple. This kind of applehack is called "jailbreaking" and Apple wants to bust (in two senses of the word) people doing it. Worse: The courts say it's OK...
Seems to me that in this kind of case, the folks at Apple oughta be more clear: People who 'buy' iWhatevers more and more are just long-term renting them, since if you own something, what you do with it is no one else's business, eh? I'm sure that's explained in their EULA, but I gave up reading EULA's in about 1988... No offense to the townspeople over in Eula, Texas, BTW.
Former President Jimmy Carter's trip to North Korea has paid off with release of an American detained for illegal entry. North Korea watchers are now off on a new tangent, trying to figure out if Kim Jong Il is planning a China trip, but I've spiked that one as a "Who cares?"
Say, you happen to notice the story yesterday about now the Navy had an unmanned drone aircraft lost not too far from the nation's capitol for more than a half-hour before getting it back under control? All of which gets me to wondering if DHS is tracking memberships in model airplane clubs now...
Watching the MSM
USA Today is reported planning to axe about 130-jobs and reorganize their newsroom with more of a focus on mobile users.
Stories We Missed
Damn! Missed covering (or would this be uncovering?) National Topless Day out in Venice Beach, California.
We also seem to have missed the case of a real-life Judge Judy type up in Seattle, who Time Magazine reported recently was handed a five-day suspension for courtroom insults laid on defendants.
Worst of all, we haven't mentioned the recently concluded Tiger Woods / Elin Nordegren divorce case.
All of which would seem to make UrbanSurvival hopelessly out of touch. Even being marginally aware of the October 1 release of "The Social Network" which is a kind of chronicle of Facebook's development, won't move us over into the "too hip" column.
We'll just have to live with that, I guess. The real news may be Zeus the Cat's plans to launch a pet food-tracking ETF...
===== snip and save section =====
Friday at the WuJo
Coping: Elaine & "The Hum"
"You hear it?"
"Well, it's kind of like a big engine idling...but I've never been able to figure out where it's coming from...sort of like noise from the oil field down the street, but it's all the time. Thing is, when I step outside to try and track it5 down, it just ...goes away...and that's it. But, it's not the refrigerator, the air conditioning, or anything else in the house..."
That's how things go around here; Elaine has consistently heard this 'big engine idling' kind of noise for six years or longer, and despite having really good hearing (except when a chore needs doing, of course) I can't hear a darn thing.
Same with readers, too, after yesterday's post about the reader up in Wisconsin who was hearing this darn noise, too. The emails have been coming in like crazy. A sampling:
Like a good hubby, I used to get up now and then to see if I could hear it...all with no success. Maybe it's a blood pressure related thing, or tinnitus, but no, everything seems to be normal on all fronts there. Must be 'one of those things' in Life that we never get the answer to. But, one thing's fairly certain: Elaine hears it, I don't, and she's not alone. Lots of readers are hearing it, too.
Drifting Measurements Dept.
Remember our discussion a while back about how people were having trouble with measurements? The gist of the phenomena was that people would measure some - very carefully, too - and then they'd cut a board (or whatever) and then the part wouldn't fit. Most would be off by reports by about an inch.
Got this really interesting note that it's a well known phenomena shipboard in some parts of the Navy...check this out:
Say, that's an oddity, ain't it? So, next time one of these 'it don't fit' events happens, or you lose you car keys and they are nowhere near where they should be, just ask someone else to do the looking, since we could be dealing with a mental aberration here...
Other Mental Effects
Say, here's an interesting one:
Seriously odd stuff, huh? Generally, experience says most folks in Texas who are in a very awake states and experiencing unexplainable joy and peace regardless of what's going on around them have been hitting the Jack & Coke, or hold public office....but my research continues....
Meantime, the people who are dumb-struck by the changes standing around drooling and such would certainly fill the predictive linguistics from the ALTA reports. Some as supposed to be so impacted that they will need the care of other humans to assist with bodily functions and so forth because they will be so shocked by events (internal or external) that they'll just go into 'lock-up' mode where they just won't be able to function.
All of which fits with the Boeing engineer story from earlier this week (Chad/SixScent/Sick Scent) asks if you share the link, you use the original page located here).
I'll let you know if I hear more on this...but the operating theory for now goes something like this:
Been a lot of attention about the number of kids that are taking off on trips 'round the world in sailboats lately, so to balance things off, up popped an email this morning from the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association online service about a 17-year old who's doing a flight across the country in a Piper Super Cub.
Interesting thing is that in all these stories, the principles of lift and airfoils are the same. Just that in a sailboat, the airfoil is working at maybe 10-knots of airspeed, while in a Super Cub it's happening at about nine times that speed...
Also of note in the AOPA notes is the report on Chihuahua, Mexico becoming something of an aerospace center...Cessna's expanding its operations there, along with other companies.
I've shortened my list of planes to consider down to the Texas-made Mooney's, thanks. made over in Kerrville, TX... Not just because owners are called "Mooniacs" (although frankly, I admire the attitude) but because it's a helluva go-fast plane and a decent used M-20C can be purchased used for around $50K and they cruise in 150-160 knot range [which works out to 177- 189 MPH range for ground lubbers] and pulls down 18-20 MPG while doing it...some having a range north of 1,000 nm (1,118 statue) which is well beyond kidney operating parameters, without a portable kidney pressure relief device; a/k/a 'the comfort tube (male version) or a 'Jill-Jar' (female version). Either of which is a fine reason to save up for a used West wind, or something in that size. Now, if only they were free...
One other flying note: The AOPA has an interesting article on "How much to brake" in their flight training section. Never thought about it before, since how much brake I apply seems directly related to how quickly I want to get out of the airplane and kiss the ground, having cheated death again...
More on Monday (hmmm...or, is that 'moron Monday'?) , unless you subscribe to www.peoplenomics.com, in which case more Saturday morning...
Send your comments to email@example.com
Reader Action Department:
Now at Peoplenomics.com
Move Over, Marx
The fundamental tenet of Peoplenomics is that it's well within human brainpower limits to come up with a better economic system than the one we now have. However, getting it actually implemented is nigh on to impossible because special interests (large corporate flavor and the corporate-government (corpgov) alliance kind) stand squarely in the way. Nevertheless, with just a little bit of
noodling, we can do better than Marx and redress some of the man vs. machine economic inequities. This week: Some radical economic ideas...
Dream A Little Dream...
If you have an especially vivid dream that seems to have something to do with the future, please write it down so others can look it over for possible future/predictive values. Simple go to http://www.nationaldreamcenter.com/ and click over to the DreamBase - commercial-free and open registration...
The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:
Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
"Live on $10,000" A Year
Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Pass It On
A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings. If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..."
Thursday August 26, 2010
Mexico's Shock Market Changer
I should have mentioned in yesterday's report that we were sort of expecting a 'mass casualty' event in this timeframe because whenever the market gets into a particularly vulnerable position (chart-wise) it seems that we get a mass horror case that helps divert public attention from the market declines going on.
Depending on where you look, you'll be able to scratch out the facts which boil down to a drug gang massacring people who didn't pay the extortion 'fees' demanded by the druggies for help getting up and across our southern border. 72-victims of this, although it's probably not the first time it's happened.
More than anything, though is the 'emotional release" aspect of it. First noted by astroecon whiz Bob Hitt. the idea is simple: When the public is starting to whip itself up into a frenzy over the wrong thing [e.g. the market and the Depression unfolding] all that's needed is a properly sized emotionally impacting event to 'switch the panic off by, as Hitt explained it back when "...diverting that emotional energy somewhere else..."
Anyway, the bottom line of these 'shock events' seems to be that not only do they occur with some regularity, but their size could almost be used as a kind of unofficial marker as to the size of the pending market decline being eyed by the PTB which, of course, more of less control the MSM and, through it, what you think about.
For example: The stock market was on the verge of recognizing the reality of the Second Depression when in the fall of 2001 the WTC 'attacks' were orchestrated. You can tell that was a major turning point because of the size of the event, the emotional frenzy whipped up, and the new industry that resulted from it -- the new Security Industry which was pretty much non-existent in August of 2001. Terrorists (of the off-Wall Street variety) were successfully blamed, a new industry launched, along with a couple of wars...
There have been lesser cases, too, including the Virginia Tech Massacre in mid April 2007. Had the market turned down on Monday April 16, 2007, a critical key count would have been completed and the decline that didn't begin until much later, would have been underway. As it was, the market traded as low as 12,611.64 on 'massacre day'. A week later, it traded as high as 13,029.59 and two weeks later 13,226.99.
My 'best guess' is this was the cloud over this timeframe that Clif's data showed, and in the pre-open this morning I clicked out of my short positions till next week, or so. Like Bob Hitt said, the emotional energy's gotta go somewhere. And looks to my cynical eyes like this kind of thing is a potential rally-driver. Maybe a 4-5% upside move? Just a dart.
Risky trading this way - THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL OR TRADING ADVICE - but no guts, not glory I figure. 45-minutes into the extended hours session, I was 31-cents ahead of the bid by clicking out early.
No, I won't go into how to do extended hours trading, and knowing exactly what you're doing is essential, but if you do manage your own money, having all the tools is certainly a help; afterhours markets being one of them.
Also, working for my theory: The new unemployment figures are out this morning:
And then there's the Mass Layoff Report:
Notice, I didn't say "Warning, Warning! All bears out of the Street till next week! That's not what we do around here. 'Cept with our own dough, of course.
Oh, and that Mexico massacre? All coincidental...I'm sure...
Why Not Washington
I see that Idaho is building it's largest wind complex to date. Which brings up the obvious set of one-liners. No, I'm not going to burden you with 'em; you're quite capable of writing your own.
Sure is an interesting contest idea, though.
Supply - Demand Lesson
Let me see, half a billion eggs recalled and what do YOU think will happen to egg prices? Whew, thank heavens it wasn't beer...
Meantime, the lawyering around the recall is starting...
Speaking of barn-yardy kinds of things, did you read where the head of the Obama debt panel is under fire for likening Social Security to "...a milk cow with 310-million tits..."? Hot water, follows, of course...
Asia Diaspora, 2.0
Just when we thought the flooding in southwest Asia couldn't get worse, it does: "Pakistan orders evacuations as flooding worsens" reports the VOA and others.
Of course, that was clearly spelled out in several of the HPH Shape of Things To Come reports...a fact not wasted on this reader:
Well, er, yeah, these things do have a way or working out now and then, don't they? Hard to explain it to skeptics, though.
Trampling of Rights, Redux
The erosion of personal freedom in America continues unabated with more and more small incursions being put in place to bulk up the already beefy 'security state'. A couple of recent examples:
Time Magazine has a good story about how the "Government can use GPS to track your every move" by simply putting a GPS device on your car while it sits in your driveway in the middle of the night. Their thinking is that you have no expectation of privacy in your car...
Along parallel lines, Andy Greenberg, who writes "The Firewall" over at Forbes has an equally troubling article under the headline "Full-Body Scan Technology Deployed in Street-Roving Vans."
This last one brings up a whole bunch of issues, not to mention health concerns. For example, let's say that I was a rabid audio aficionado and I wanted to use some lead sound deadening product to line much of my car. Would that somehow be a trip-wire that would set off alarms over at Homeland Security?
I've always been partial to products like "Lcomp" which is a neat ˝-inch thick sound absorber. Used a bit of it when I was on the sailboat since it is great for cutting down engine noise. But here's where this eventually wides (in typical twisted George fashion: Can the cops pull you over for using too much lead-containing sound absorption material thinking you're a terrorist rather than a serious music purist?
Too Much Silence
Speaking of which, I forgot to mention that a few days ago, there was a story on NHK's evening news (which I assume you're able to get on your free-to-air (FTA) television set-up, right?) about how Toyota was offering a $265 option on its Prius electrics that makes a noise (barely audible in the car, we're reassured) that will alert pedestrians that there's a stealthy electric car in the area.
What's even cooler about this: It's been a terribly amusing story to see propagate from the satellite TV story to now something over 220-reports from various media listed by Google's news search engine.
No, there's not too much on FTA...but most of what's there is commercial-free and doesn't have any month subscription fees associated with it. You can get a whole FTA set-up on eBay for under $300 (there's a Peoplenomics report for subscribers a while back on how we put ours in) and you can get an idea of some of what's available by looking at the MHz Networks website.
The cool thing about MHz is that they have an afternoon news block which I sometimes watch in the office. It's a nice aggregation of NHK's news from Japan, Inside Taiwan (you figure it out), IBA News (Israel), Russia Today, South Asia Newsline, Al Jazeera (Middle East), Deutsche Welle (Germany) and France24.
Oh...no commercials and no monthly bill and don'tcha know we really miss those. NOT!
Real Estate Price Note
Good article in the NY Post about NYC real estate prices. $140/square foot in an upscale location...if you've got $35-million sitting in your cookie jar.
You results may vary.
And "For the Truly Pessimistic" Department
The website www.2012pro.com has an article worth some consideration: "2012 - 7 Reasons the world will end on December 21, 2012"
Oh...speaking of which - you remember that article by a former Boeing guy about the worries about what's up ahead in our near future? Several people asked whether it was real.
Good question...so I asked the author of the story (SixScent) who posted the work over at his website (here). I tracked him down because I had some questions, too. Here're some of his answers - you can figure out my questions, I hope:
Well, there you go...thanks Chad... another worry about 2012 - this passing through "local interstellar space" junk.
Whether this will be enough to set off all kinds of coronal mass ejections, or some kind of odd solar-driven EMP event that bakes most of the earth's computer systems would be wildly speculative. But, at least the current sunspot cycle should provide ham radio hobbyists like me with unbelievable - maybe once in a lifetime - conditions.
Elaine's a bit mystified by ham radio, still. She doesn't seem to understand how I can pull an incredibly weak Morse code signal out from way down in the noise floor on the ham radio setup and still not be able to hear when she needs something done over at the house.
Male pattern deafness, dear. Aggravated by rare DX on the low end of 20-meters.
===== snip and save section =====
Coping: 15-Years of Windows®
There was a neat article on ZD Net this week by Mary Jo Foley that stirred up a lot of memories under the headline "We you in line to buy Windows 95 fifteen years ago?" Brought back a whole bunch of memories and an opportunity to do a little 'self audit' of what's changed in my life since then.
In 1995 I was indeed one of the people in line to buy W95 on release morning in Seattle. I can even remember which office products store. My major milestones since then? Turns out to be an interesting list...
Not that these are brag point; just trying to get the idea across that when people look at birthdays there's sometimes not a lot of movement in Life noticeable. But, when you take a bigger chuck of it - fifteen years, in this case - you can see a nice trail of what you've done.
The 'open items list' includes writing a best-selling book. I've got plans in that regard, however. Just a matter of self-discipline.
What I'm coming around to is that a 15-year look at your progress through Life isn't a bad thing to do and the anniversary of W95 isn't a bad timeframe to consider.
Especially since we all exit life with the unexpected 'blue screen of death' (BSOD) at some point. Might as well make the best of each day.
Power of Computing
So there I was in the early hours of this morning going over some things on Amazon and I noticed they were trying to get me to set up a 'pay phrase' for checking out. The suggestion? "George Whipped Etiquette".
How'd they know?
Another Bug Theory
Over the past week, or so, we've been pondering what the lack of bugs in parts of the country might mean - if anything at all. Along comes this fine statement of the obvious:
Actually, this one make sense. Well, as much as anything makes sense these days...
Here's a good one:
Dude, you so have to read up on the history of the Taos Hum... Reader's in Wisconsin, a bit removed but maybe....
Wednesday August 25, 2010
Yes - This is a Depression...BUT...
It's really one of those good news - bad news affairs. Yes, it is a Depression, since the only way the economic numbers can be read is that we're out of bubbles to inflate, there are millions of jobs that have been outsourced and will never return to America, and the housing report Tuesday just plain old sucked.
Yes, this is the site that started writing about the long wave of economics and the theoretical end of the great boom from the last depression through present day which had to come to an end not later than 83.5 years or so after its inception because no matter how the numbers get pushed around, the magic of compounding swaps every nook and cranny of the economy with debt burden by that point, no matter what.
So this morning we're likely to have another downer/bummer on Wall Street, since Europe started off down this morning, and Japan shaved another 1.66% off the Nikkei overnight.
An optimist could say that things aren't so bad: The Fed and the Treasury seem to have managed things OK...at least so far. The Housing Bubble is being unwound and there's light at the end of the tunnel, right?
Let me interject here with the Durable Goods Order report, hot off the Xerox machine...
Pardon me while I put on the green eyeshades for a moment and point out how we're not even back to 2008 levels which is why statistics with only a one-year window in the rearview mirror are both useless and largely for idiots:
If that sounds a little less than encouraging, consider the headline that the "...Number of Americans receiving long-term Unemployment Benefits has risen a whopping 60 Percent in just One Year..."
Later on this morning, new home sales figures will be released. While the so-so Durables orders might leave room for a short bounce after the open, you might not want to be standing under windows around 9 AM Central (10 A Eastern) when the home sales come out. Or, at least look up once in a while. Bound to be better than the existing sales of Tuesday, but not much since I've been talking to a few local builders who've hinted that the only want to get money out of a bank lately is at gunpoint.
While Robin Landry's work still points to a short term (6-month?) low around 8,500 down to 8,100, then a bounce and then going down to around the 4,400 level (or lower) over the coming year or two, the others eyheing the data are starting to gin up some headlines, too. Like this one who says the the "Dow Faces a Bouncy Ride to 5,000".
Why is it that when I give you great market calls and perspective since 1997, no one pays attention, but when a PR piece hits the wire, Bingo! It's somehow more real? (sigh, grumbles, slurps of cold coffee...). Pearls before Sheep, I tell yah!
Futures look weak. Maybe not everyone's an idiot... yes it's a Depression, but these things take a lot of time to work out.
One reason might have to do with the sheep just recently being stampeded into pulling in their spending habits. Latest evidence is that overall credit card debt has dropped to the lowest level in 8-years.
Don't tell anyone (but this is the secret sauce behind the market collapse...) If their ain't no spending, ain't no new jobs, and we sink deeper into Depression 2.0. (We're geniuses for getting this figured out, huh?)
Then, once people notice prices falling, they will begin to postpone big ticket purchases which will make things like Durable Goods crater....or weren't you paying attention earlier on in today's report?
Protecting the Boss Dept.
You see where WIBW is reporting "Corruption Investigators: Blago Investigation Cut Short to Protect Obama"?
Must be something about Chicago politics that screws people up, you think? Maybe it's the water...
"Yum!" No, you sot! Not that way....this way explains a reader:
Wrong, but LOL...even more amazing are the headlines that people are now changing their eating habits because of it.
Our staff consulting microbiologist called this morning with further details as to how this works: If the egg is in the ovaries of an infected bird, then the shell forms later after the egg is somewhat developed, which traps the salmonella on the inside...
Six-Pack Science Dept.
The Toronto Star has a dandy one: "Party-goer didn't notice he'd been shot in head. For five years..."
Hmmm... Zeus the Cat says I should hold off till Friday afternoon, then...
Iran War Drum Beating
China reports on the new Iranian surface-to-surface missile with a range of 250 kilometers. Pencils to about 155.34 miles.
So this one I don't think is too big a deal. Fired from Tehran, this wouldn't even make it outside their own country, although if fired from Iran's western border area, it could hit Baghdad....
Then again with dozens being killed there by bombings now, seems kinda redundant.
War over, huh?
Hitler's DNA: Jewish & Black?
The Daily Mail headline "DNA tests reveal 'Hitler was descended from the Jews and Africans he hated'" is certainly going to ripple around the supremacist circles, we imagine.
Me? Just a slightly overweight T6 haplotype. Try putting that on a job application. Speaking of which...
Last time I filled out an employment ap, years ago and they asked "Race: (answer for HR statistical purposes only) I put in "Sailboats, bikes when younger". In the future I will simply put T6 and let them wonder if I'm a Terminator or what...depends how sharp the HR group is, I suppose....
Then again, I also answered for "DOB:_Yes_
For some odd reason, never got a call back...
===== snip and save section =====
Coping: Drawing a Bead on 2012
I've been spending a fair amount of time this week trying to reconcile three or four major viewpoints on what lays ahead using a variety of inputs. curiously, all of them seem to be pointing toward a really terrible next couple of years with the only major difference being the rate of decline and the ultimate answer to the question "How far is down?"
The first thing I've come to terms with is how Clif's expectation of a major 'earthquake" around the first of August was off. Well, except it wasn't really. You see, what we experienced on August 1 was what can only be described as as "Sunquake"...which, since it's not a common word - or concept (yet) takes a little explaining.
The basic idea is that the Sun's equator material spins around at a different speed than the sun's polar material. As this stuff swirls around at however many million degrees, it has the potential to twist up the Sun's plasma in such a way as to cause major filaments (Hyder flares) to develop. And then push ejecta out toward whatever is in the way.
Now, since we know Earth is going to be crossing the Galactic Ecliptic, shortly, we might look for other linked oddities in the "space goat farts' part of language shift to see what else lurks.... Normally, this would not be a 'big deal' except there's this interesting document floating around the 'net titled "The coming: A Boeing Whistleblower's Warning: Will a Massive Celectial System Change Our Solar System".
The gist of the (97 pges worth of .PDF) document is that not only has NASA already preannounced that there's been a "Giant Breach in Earth's Magnetic Filed Found" (this was in late 2008) but more recently a "Giant Ribbon Discovered at the end of the Solar System" (October 2009).
But the really scary stuff is that attending this "giant ribbon" thingy is this material referred to as 'local fluff' has now been explained...at least sort of.
This whole region of space we're into (and getting deeper if I follow it), has the name "Local Interstellar Cloud" (and a Wikipedia entry here) seems not to be too big a threat until....
You start to line up the rest of what's going on which includes the August 1 Sunquake and all the research that folks like Patrick Geryl have done.
Geryl, you'll recall, has written several books about what could happen in late 2012 including How To Survive 2012.
A while back, an email from Geryl included this interesting note:
"So what does this lead to?" you're wondering...
Well, looking at the odd language in Clif's data from the latest www.halfpasthuman.com forward looking (long term data sets) report, reading over the development of the Local Interstellar Cloud, eyeing the August 1st Sunquake, the problems with the Earth's magnetosphere, and all those 'angry sun' images which have been passed down to us from ancient times, one can come up with a postulate to table and begin to watch that might work out something like this:
September 3-4, 2010: The next round of earthquake data from Tony Ring, who's been kind enough to share his work with us, MAY show another monthly increase in earthquake activity, continuing bothersome trends that seem to indicate a gradual (years long) increase in quakes.
October 25-28, 2010: If Clif's data and the work Patrick has put together mesh at all with the purported "Boeing Whistleblower" data, we should see another "Sunquake" in this period. Excerpt, that it should be stronger than the last one since if the 2012 fears are real, we could see some build up of magnitudes of impacts as we get closer.
Concurrent Event: Remember our recent discussions "Down at the Wujo" where woo-woo and science come together to duke it out on the mat of reality? Well, this could mark a period when we will have another round of 'high strangeness' happening leading into the event. Working theory: As the Sun winds up huge energies in plasma, it can bend or twist space-time in unexpected ways which may be perceptible to humans as anomalous phenomena such as keys showing up in strange places, time jumps, and hyperchronism events.
IF we get a noticeable Sunquake in this period, then things get really, really serious for the whole of this here rock because if you add the 87.45 days of that Solar equatorial/pole difference up, and then throw out the numbers, you can see where it's possible that we will have only nine of the 87.45 day cycles left before hitting 2012 which - by Patrick's work, but not contradicted by the long term values in Clif's work) be some kind of crescendo or Earth changer event. Here's how the date would line up if the 87.45 day cycle is applied, although how accurate this is doesn't really matter; if there's another "Sunquake" within 4-5 days either side of the October 25 window, Mr. Ure will be quickly making plans to head "North of 40" which is persistent in Clif's work.
Here's how the dates could line up:
All of which might answer an interesting problem that Clif and I have kicked around: Why all the "North of 40ş" references in Clif's work? Well, if you look at the date line ups here, what you'll notice is that many of them happen very close to the Winter Solstice. At that time, the Sun is 23.5ş south of the equator, which means that the local angle to the sun at 40ş north would be around 63.5ş (January 21st each year) which would make the arrival of any energy from the sun have to transit a much thicker layer of atmosphere to get to the north climes.
If there's any tie-in between the ancient stories of Atlantic or Lemuria sinking, and the periodic passing through whatever part of space we're in, then might it be possible that the 'angry sun' getting twisted up and ultra-long filaments developing be part of the picture? An unqualified "Who knows for sure?"
Moreover, are there logical checks or experiments we could design? Simple task: Wait to see what happens around October 20-Nov. 1-ish. If we get a 'sunquake" in that window, then we have to proceed to the next level of planning which would be to envision what kind of energy might be released, and if it's big and electromagnetic then we will ramp up the most aggressive EMP protection around us we can imagine.
Or, if the energy from collapsing filament(s) activity on the Sun were to send visible energy (heat) then perhaps the 'angry sun' might be setting up for some kind of energetic arcing to the planets, as has been postulated elsewhere. Worse: A pulse of energy great enough to touch of spontaneous fires. Although, if you live the life electric, having a huge sun-driven EMP event might be the functional equivalent...
Remember on all this stuff that just because it hasn't happened in the written memory of humans, doesn't me that it hasn't happened before. So we patiently wait for the end of October to see if the speculation carries any weight.
Conspiracy Theories -- That Aren't
As long as we're out on the ragged edge this morning, here's a dandy read-submitted note:
So, you're wondering, what was that Retinger reference about and who is he? Aha! A check of the local Wikipedia shows:
OK, about here you're going "Oh...THAT Józef Retinger. Jah...that one...
See how everything fits together in an odd puzzle-shaped sort of way?
Sad Builders, Happy Bears
Can't please 'em all. Just in from the National Association of Realtors:
Well, gee, gosh, no surprise around here. Did I or did I not start Monday with a headline that went something like...oh yeah, here it is....."Fade the Rally Again - Rose Colored Monday"?
Only question is whether 10,000 will hold. My dart: Briefly under then a last minute rally to pull it back on the top side of 10,000...but not financial advice, just a damn dart toss.
10,000 and Other Psychological Barriers
I find myself asking an odd question as we're a couple of hours yet from the opening of the markets as this morning's column spills out of the fingers: What if Global Markets are entraining for a crash?
The reason for bringing up the question is that we could see multiple markets this week hit - and pass through to the downside - several psychologically important numbers.
Take Hong Kong's Hang Seng: It only dropped 230-odd points overnight, but it's getting close to a big round number: 20,000. It would only take another 658.72 points - a couple of days of trading, say by Friday - for that market to drop below a key big round number.
Taiwan's TSEC index is at 7,940-ish this morning, but during the trading session Tuesday it popped up as high as 8,013.12 - another one of those big round numbers.
Same kind of thing may be seen, by squinting at things just so, in Europe this morning where the German DAX Monday fell through the 6,000 level, and UK's FTSE is edging its way down toward the 5,000 level, although it's not quite there...yet. Give it time.
I mention this because the US Dow is only 175 points (before the open) away from a big round number, too - the 10,000 level which has been called (by more astute observers than me) an 'important psychological barrier', and the S&P is looking to me like it could go down and test - and possibly penetrate - the 1,000 level. If that happens, the NASDAQ, too, could punch through the 2,000 level.
So if this anything other than monkeymind looking at the predictive linguistic 'hot date range' and wondering if we might see some kind of global entrainment shape up only to be kicked seriously to the downside worldwide with some kind of adverse news? Maybe...maybe not.
The key thing to watch here is that the markets have been in a crash window since around the end of July with the Grand Cross that the astromoney folks were going on about, and just because it hasn't happened yet is hardly any reason to go lining up behind the bullish case. Their window runs to September something.
The Home Sales report will be out at mid morning and serious disappointment there might be all it will take for the Dow to mount a real challenge to the 10,000 level...today.
One thing to keep an eye on - another one of those 'big round numbers' is the battle around $1,200 for gold. If gold decisively takes out the $1,200 level to the downside, then it might hint that deflation fears are back in a meaningful way as a market driver, and should that happen, things like the US dollar could gain appreciably which, in turn, would tend to drive down the price of US stocks since they're currently priced almost as much as a proxy for inflation as for underlying value.
Had an interesting conversation yesterday with my friend Howard Hill (who, BTW is calling a top in the 10-year and higher bonds, although he admits probably early) about a phenomena that may soon come to call on various investment outfits called "Hobson's Choice".
The problem for some of the big investment firms is that yields are getting so dicey in some instruments that a few firms could soon find themselves in a position where the two choices are either a) cut deals now that will result in guaranteed losses in the future - unless greater fools can be found, or b), not do any deals at all, which as Howard points out is not really a choice at all, because that'd be telling their customers to 'get lost' and going out of business, which is clearly not a viable choice, at least if they want customer money to play with.
But that's the kind of picture that's starting to emerge not in stocks and unlevered bonds, but in the more sophisticated instruments like bundles of this, or that (thinking derivatives). Howard's got a much more elegant explanation of how this could all work out in his article "S Curves" which you can (and I think should) read here, because when Howard's good, he's just frigging brilliant. Telling us regular folks how the magic works behind the curtain is a noble endeavor if there ever was one.
And that gets me to a very interesting tactical question for the Fed and Treasury to be thinking about in here: "What happens if a lot of the 'little' boutique operations that do small numbers of derivatives and minor REIT's and such all start to run into Howard's Hobson's choice problem at about the same time and toss in the towel?"
Just old goat farmer's gut talking here, but couldn't we find the market has avoided short-term death via bailouts of last year only to live long enough (1 year cost how many trillion?) to 'die a death by a thousand cuts' as boutiques start to implode which then sets off a [chain reaction] that doesn't lend itself to the 'too big to fail' excuse to bail, but which nevertheless starts the avalanche of cascading collapse?
Maybe the Norfolk Southern railroad is onto something with 100-year bonds....or is that just pushing the promise to deliver onto folks two or three generations out? Now, if they'd tie it to gold or oil or something like so many calories of food out there, I could see it really being worth something.
Otherwise, are you kidding? The minimum implied annual deflation rate alone would have to be 2.3-2.5% just to take up for the average money-watering-down that the Fed's already demonstrated since 1913 (a year that lives in infamy for spawning both the income tax and IRS).
My guess: If it does, then look for the US to be chomping at the bit to either pick a new war to go fight, or we'll get some kind of attack on the homeland. To have an honest outcome in the larger game would reveal "Why, yes, the Emperor really has no clothes on" down on Wall Street. And when the illusion of savings (or whatever you call those derivatives bundles tossed mindlessly in pension funds and endowments and IRA's and such) gets blown up, I figure the whole country will just slide to Third World status in only a couple of months as the financial system (and in turn everything else) 'coagulates' - to use Clif's right word to describe things.
If my columns get a little dark and brooding over the coming fall, don't worry about my portfolio; I'll be worried about the much bigger problem of how to get some of that Monopoly Money turned into something useful like food and solar panels and more seeds for the garden before even that is made illegal in an effort to beggar The People and prop up the American Aristocracy. A 60-70% gain for the year which is my plan, isn't much of an accomplishment if it won't buy a six-pack, know what I mean?
Think Ahead A Bit: Inflation is NOT prices going UP...it's the purchasing power of money GOING DOWN. The hyper education system teaches it back-asswards. Inflation follow deflation like day follows night.
All of which means what? America may soon be facing a scaled-up version of Hobson's Choice - bigger than even the boutique derivative shop questions floating around the periphery of Wall Street. Do we take the third world lifestyle choice and do a cold restart, or just implode and claw back from the late 1800's?
Ugly Questions. No simple answers.
The Smoking Gun has a grand read - not to be missed - "Justice Department Seeks Ebonics Experts: DEA wants "Black English" linguists to decipher bugged calls". Wo tah, homie?
Elsewhere, Life Continues
"Barack Obama Elementary School opens in Maryland". Wonder if they teach pollution control or how a checkbook works?
Going For Our Food
Extra large...no, make that jumbo sized...assault on personal freedom is shaping up behind the egg recall which is blowing up into a half-billion egg whoopdee.
All of which will be used to try and stampede folks into 'food safety measure' (S.510 et al) which will restrict home grown food even for personal consumption.
Click here to read the bill to see how a food safety bill gets introduced (119 pages) and turned into a Homeland Security power grab bill (266 pages) which then goes to the full Senate where I'm betting the egg recall will be used to reinflate the stretch for more powers and thus control of agriculture.
New word around here for use on the would-be food controllers: The Cropstapo.
Gee...let me think: How did humans get along about a million years without all this government intervention.....??
The yokes on us.
Carter Does Salt?
Let me see... is it the movie which opens with Angelina Jolie in a North Korean prison? The movie was Salt...still showing.
Life is still imitating art, I 'spose. Salt - the movie- has made $172-million and still climbing. No telling what Carter's cost us.
Move Over Windy City
Rose Park Utah is getting a taste of those strange/new wind patterns that have been in the predictive linguistics...just a foretaste to be sure, but 60-70 mile an hour winds are a real nuisance.
Wonder if there's a kite shop up there? Come to think of it, wonder how many kite shops there are in Washington? Plenty o' wind there...
So, now that a federal judge Monday blocked further stem cell research, which the Obama administration has been pushing, the next move will be a federal appeal to a higher court where the feds will no doubt get their way.
A growing number of readers are sending notes noticing something wrong with the highly touted US withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq.
"Why, some are even asking 'If the war's really over then why aren't our boys (and girls) headed home?"
Oh, you missed the part where we're just taking them off the board till the Iran mess has worked up to a full-on battle, and then we'll put 'em back in the fight. Say, didn't ya'll learn how to play chess as a kid?
Quakes To Come?
Reader's been watching the latest from the magnetometers us at HAARP and wondering if there might be some fallout from the solar winds hitting.
Up to 230 cases investigated by the North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation will be reviewed for tainted evidence. Some of the people in jail - who could be innocent -- goes back to the early 1990's and the probe comes after a man finally got out after being wrongly imprisoned for 17-years.
Oh, the rest of the saying is "Justice delayed is justice denied." And applies everywhere....came from British prime minister William Gladstone.
Along the same lines: "The more laws, the less justice" - Marcus Tillis Cicero.
Or my own all purpose quote suitable for anything: "They're doing WHAT?"
===== snip and save market =====
Coping: The Rambling Search for Justice
Ready for a little more "Truth Out" stuff? Yesterday I told you the tale of the blogger in Philadelphia who the city was trying to weasel $300-bucks out of...which seems absurd. But check it out: We have a reader who knows the real story about what's going on the City of Brotherly Love:
Lot's of America's heritage has gone by the wayside, to our collective culture loss, but every once in a while something like this little bit about Philadelphia lawyers comes up which just demands a bit more comment.
However, since we live in a litigious society I'll bite my tongue (now bleeding profusely) and simply refer you to a song from the last Depression - written by folk singing legend Woodie Guthrie (father of Arlo, who in turn did Alice's Restaurant). The 1937 tune was "Reno Blues" but it's also called The Philadelphia Lawyer Song...lyrics here if you care.
In keeping with our musicology class today, a footnote on Alice's Restaurant in passing:
I wonder if that really worked in places like, oh, North Carolina.
Say, here's a reason to pour gazillions more into various space programs that you and I will never get to fly in: A BBC report that "Beer microbes live 553 days outside the ISS".
Before you pick up the pitchfork to confront the PTB about their beer hall plans in space, this is microbes from the Cliffs of Beer...not a nice Pilsner kind. Save the pitchfork for later, you'll need it.
Bugs - Terra Infirma
Almost forgot to mention that the most extreme weather in history is slapping Indonesia around. I mention this in passing because we've got some trees here at the ranch dropping leaves early, and we're wondering is this doesn't have something to do with the 'disappearing bug reports' which are piling up from all over the place:
Off in SoCal:
And up the coast and inland a ways:
Not sure what to make of all the reports...could just be a 'cycle' peak of prey and a cycle low of victims, but troubling, that's for sure. Sorry I didn't have time to list all the reports of bug shortages, but a group "thank you" for sending them all in...
Staying the Course
Good article "How Hyperinflation Will Happen" that's worth a read, since it goes along with my thinking to a fair degree.
At some point, the paper debt monster will either have to collapse (deflation) or, there will have to be so much money printed globally that it will look like "Pandemic Weimar" or maybe Zimbabwe Global 2.0.
this weekend, our Peoplenomics.com subscriber site takes on the annual update of our ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year...or less..." and in it this year is a short road map showing how to get from nothing - and I mean just the shirt on your back to something.
Biggest thing involved in it is figuring out what you can do without now while there is still time to find some greater fools out there. Anyone with a storage unit that they pay monthly for, unless they have something really valuable, like a boat and they can't keep that at an apartment complex, or something like that, is a dunderhead for paying money to store junk.
I keep telling anyone who will listen that if you're not using something, or don't have fairly short-order plans to use it - to pencil out what the storage costs are and in many cases, when you figure out what five years of storage costs are (with interest) you'll often find that you could junk the old stuff now, buy new later on when you actually plan to use it, and still have enough left over for a soda pop.
Strange how people work, though....anyway, that's coming up in Peoplenomics this weekend, since there are a lot more of us with nothing and trying to figure out how to climb the social pyramid, than there are uber rich trying to figure out how to get down without getting jabbed by the pitch forks. Hope it's as much fun to read as it is to right.
Monday August 23, 2010
Fade the Rally - Again
No, I'm not giving you financial advice to flee from the stock market on any rally in today's action. You spend your money your way, I'll spend my money Ure way. BUT, seems that a lot of small investors have wised up, especially if you caught the NY Times article this weekend about how "In Striking Shift, Small Investors Flee Stock Market". Hallelujah. Someone's got sense.
Being a small investor sometimes is a real blessing. If most of us get a few bucks ahead, we can look at the problems coming down the pike and move our bets accordingly without upsetting the whole apple cart. I'm a big fan in today's world of getting into gardening, paying down debt, spending a lot less on hobbies, and storing foods and such.
But consider the choices available if you were managing a big pension fund, or if you were faced with the task of placing money in the billions...how would you do it? It's one thing for us little guys to pick up the phone and order a gold coin, or a 100-ounce bar of silver, or order a couple of pails of long-term storage prepared food from Emergency Essentials, but that doesn't work for BIG outfits. Ever figure how manyh pails of wheat or rice a billion dollars worth would be? Nope, small investors have the guerilla advantage here.
Let's face it: The reason most of us get up and go to work on Monday is to keep a roof over the head, food in the belly, and buy a few treats (and maybe a buzz now and then) along the way.
Over the past couple of years, we've seen a systemic deterioration of the reasons to get up and go to work. Some cynic you know might look at the big picture like this:
While you and I may have trouble getting motivated on a late summer Monday like this, especially since it seems that government is continuing to grow unabated despite the housing crunch, jobs collapse and all the other things that go with Depression Two, we notice that Los Angeles is unveiling a $578 million dollar school next month - yes, you read that right - about 6/10th's of a billion for a school.
And we wonder why states like California are in financial trouble? Wonder if this memorial to big dreams will include a remedial math program?
No sir, it doesn't seem like getting up and going off to the worker-bee treadmill will be any more worthwhile than any other week, unless you have the three meals a day habit and haven't eaten since Sunday, of course.
The market knows of your calorie-based indenture, and knowing this, is peeking up a bit at the open. Think the hype du jour may be mergers & acquisitions activity.
I reckon it won't last, since long term problems of the world didn't magically go "Poof!" this weekend. The sole purpose of sharp rallies in bear markets is to give cynics like me good entry points and take money from hype-believing optimists blinded to the data.
There's a simply physics reason for this, of course: You can't see red ink through rose-colored glasses, or did you miss that in physics?
The Blame Game Dept.
Say, here's some real genuine progress for you: Now that he's been in office a fair while, president Obama seems to be shifting the blame for the jobs mess to Congress and taking the heat off George W. Good focus...
All of which is ridiculous. of course: There would be no job problem in America if we just demanded that workers making the goods we buy get paid an equivalent wage to prevailing US rates, or our Customs folks would collect the difference at the ports of entry.
Purchasing Power Parity for workers is such a simple concept, yet its the BIG economic secret because what has fueled the whole globalist agenda is the notion that cheap labor anywhere in the world can be exploited unnoticed and the wage rate differentials pocketed by corporations whose boards of directors don't mind 10,000-mile supply chains, as long as there's enough dough left over for their options to go green.
Stupid how obvious this is when you think about it, and taxing foreign goods to make them the same price as domestically fabricated goods would set off an amazing firestorm of domestic growth. But for now, ain't gonna happen - there's just too much money making you bid your job against a 19-year old in South Asia with a 3rd grade education running a leftover machine 20-hours a day. Owners pocket the delta.
Don't it make you proud of all the folks in Washington who don't get it? Crack pipe, please....
March To War
I sort of expected war to break out this weekend in the Middle East, and perhaps the fact that it hasn't is one of the reasons the market futures are up a bit this morning.
Nevertheless, the preps continue on both sides. On the Iranian side two developments: Iran's got a new long-range missile packing drone aircraft to contend with and they've started building missile-packing speedboats.
On the other side of the upcoming festivities, Israel has named a new army chief.
But Israel-Iran is not the only conflict on the horizon. I've been watching the developments along the southern flank of Russia with some apprehension as a 2011 war involving Russia and Armenia is on the horizon and like according to a Russian expert... (map) Russia wants to own/seriously control the southern Caucasus region (next map).
No danger of peace breaking out any time soon, and if anything, the opposite continues to build. Not that peace was really on the agenda in the first place, after all, there's no money in that is there? Which gets me to looking at.....
The Oversold Withdrawal
OK, deal on the Iraq withdrawal seems to be that although most combat troops are coming out of Iraq (which could be a mess when the Iran hostilities start) there are still some combat units being 'reformed' as Advise and Assist brigades.
Why, this is like one of those Clitonesque finely sliced definition problems, isn't it: Depends what you mean by combat, huh?
Oil's Declining Status
With all the mess in the Gulf, we notice that with the price of oil being pretty much static that it's starting to ripple into Middle East politics a bit. Take for example the report that Bahrain's sovereign debt is being downgraded by Moody's as a data point.
Attacking Free Speech
You see where a blogger up in Philadelphia is being told to buy a $300 business license? Let me see: Free speech is no longer free...again?
Rusty Midwest Department
The headlines out of St. Louis that the famous "Gateway Arch showing rust and decay" brings new meaning to the phrase America's Rust Belt.
===== snip and save section =====
Coping: The National Asset Stripping Festival
We're starting in to what may very well turn out to be an extremely dangerous - not to mention expensive - period of America politics, as the effects of the Second Depression continue to mount on politicians at almost every level of government.
If you gety a few minutes, there's a very good overview piece in the Wall Street Journal's online service about how "...Cities sell parking, airports, zoo..." and it goes into the pressure mounting on state and local governments to 'asset strip' in order to meet short-term issues.
Under more normal conditions, I'd be ranting and raving about here on how stupid, if not downright illegal it is, for government to sell off anything it makes: The reason being the public should be getting the revenue streams in perpetuity from things like parking meters, especially when LA's got parking meters that will take debit and credit cards, and we've already seen the first round of asset stripping in the form of selling off roads to private interests.
Not unexpected (sadly) are headlines like " Chicago, Illinois Ripped Off by parking Meter Lease" and other alleged infractions of the public good. But seems to me there's an even more basic problem here: Doesn't sale of assets amount to a direct public subsidy for private industry?
Many of the toll roads being 'leased' to private companies were built with public money and funded with publicly backed bond sales yet unabashedly, the politicos who don't want to be held accountable for maintain state & local services turn right around and for short term gain rip off the public's long-term investment.
Clearly, this is another reason why the "November 2: Take the Trash Out" stickers are popping up around the country. People understand that the country is in the Second Depression now because government spending has reached unsustainable levels. But, rather than asset strip, the other side of ther coin is to 'government strip; that's my term for matching the head-count in government to the income streams available.
I haven't been watching this very long, but the appearance is that government goes around mouth-mouthing it's financial condition while at the same time increasing its damn head count and doing this at the very time it's asset stripping in violation of the public trust.
Care to make a little bet on something? In cities, counties and states where 'asset stripping' has already been done, the promise was that it would provide for a reduction in the number of government workers required.
Show me the case where headcount has been reduced in a meaningful war, otherwise I'll leave it marked in bold as another one of our reasons to vote all incumbents out in November.
On the Road Again
Where's the Bugs?
Elaine & I had a delightful trip up to Shawnee, Oklahoma this weekend for a nice get together with Robin Landry and his wife...most of the evening Saturday was devoted to what else? Figuring out where the market's going, but I have a much better sense now of how Robin gets his count and we never disagreed on the longer-term direction anyway (down, if you're not awake yet).
The scenery along the way was gorgeous - instead of taking the Interstate up through Dallas and Oklahoma City, we took the Indian Nation Turnpike when runs from Hugo, Oklahoma up to about I-40 or so.
And therein lies the tale: In all of about 800-miles of summertime driving, we had only four or five bug hits on the windshield. Don't know what your thoughts are but this is a screaming environmental warning light to me. Why, as a kid (under age k40) I did a tremendous amount of driving (cars & motorcycles) and most summers before plastic face shields on motorcycles, it was often like getting shot in the face with a BB gun to ride 60 MPH on a bike in the summer...stung like hell.
This weekend: Got all the way up to Shawnee with only one small bug on the window and about 3-4 on the way back Sunday, but part of the reason was thatg I took smaller roads and a more direct route. But still - an unbelievable lack of bugs...
Not like I'm the only one to notice as we were talkingt about last week:
And yet another...
I've got a number of competing theories going at the moment, and these are in no particular order:
If you do happen to know anyone who's a bug-person, oir is in college doing research in the field (sorry for the bad pun here), any input, kespecially if we can get year-on-year comparisons would be dandy. Remember: We've been watching honey bee collapse with some trepidation, but the decline of the wholesale assortment of all kinds of bugs (and the resulting death up the food chain) is a very, very bad thing.
Oh, and fits into one of Robin Landry's observations about what turns a recession into a depression: Famine. Are the bugs telling us something?
Peoplenomics Access Issue Fixed
Interesting problem with Peoplenomics access on Saturday morning early. I'd typed in the wrong [page address] and only had it posted for a few minutes before fixing it...yet that was all it too for that page to be cached around the net so... most people were able to get in, but a few had access issues
If you ever can't get a Peoplenomics report, there is usually a simple naming convention in place which you might think about for your own files if you have...looks like this, using the Sunday Peoplenomics as an example:
As a general way of keeping things organized I use a couple of leading characters and the sort-friendly date...just helps me find thing. Now if I could only get rid of the 18,116 items in my inbox...
Smoke Gets In Your Thinking
Good news, and bad, on the tobacco front. The good news is that the BBC reported last week that "Tobacco use in movie [is] 'falling'.
But depends where you watch the movies. In China, for example, smoking has become a regular part of the PG13 movies and the People's Daily reports that an "Anti-Tobacco group raises alarm over smoking in Chinese TV, flim".
The tragedy in North Carolina where on Friday, a 9-year old boy was killed in a tobacco harvester accident only serves to underscore the dangers of smoking to all of us.
With the report that a 14-year old Dutch girl is off sailing around the world, we have to wonder how young people should be before taking on the world's oceans? While her plans are to do the cruiser's rounding (using the Panama Canal instead of the Southern Ocean, it's still a mighty big ocean out there), but we have to admire her spunk, eluding authorities in Portugal and heading out on her own. Wish her fair winds...
Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9˝ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
Be Sure to See:
Bots: NE Power Outage
Our Favorite Tool:
Emergency Food Stores
This is a Free Financial News and economic information site updated daily except Sundays.
If you can not get to http://www.urbansurvival.com/ from your corpgov workstation, please try our mirror site: http://www.independencejournal.com/ . This site is also available at www2.urbansurvival.com and www3.urbansurvival.com which may not be blocked.
· Bulletins are posted as our work schedule permits and as events warrant.
· I try to publish Monday-Saturday by 8 AM Central Time/ 9 AM Eastern with 7:55 Central pretty normal. If you're easily offended by the occasional typo, then check about 8:15 Central we usually proofread and spell check after the first post. We've had some amusing typos in the past... Sometimes a Saturday issue will be dropped due to projects & chores on our ranch.
· Financial and news judgments of the publisher are not to be considered "advice"
· Please read and understand our disclaimer
· All original content © 1997-2010 by George A. Ure except sources as linked. Very short extracts are occasionally used under 'fair use' but never entire articles without permission. That would be beyond 'fair use'.
· Copyright of all linked articles is cited under fair use as this is a topic specific site (long wave economics and humanistic economics, which we call "Peoplenomics"
Our premium service, which contains more in depth reports is available on a $40/year subscription basis. Details at www.peoplenomics.com/subscribe.htm.
The "web bot project" indicates a reference to the time predictive technology embodied in the "Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis Intelligence Reports" technology pioneered and operated by Tenax Software Engineering for http://www.halfpasthuman.com/. An intro to the technology is here. Extracts, when used, are with exclusive permission and any references on other web sites must contain a link to both this site and HalfPastHuman's main page: http://www.halfpasthuman.com/.
Site Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
© 2010 Copyright Notice: The author(s) of this site requires that any links or use of material from this site include the author's name and a link to this site. All links included in our material must also be included in citations. Address questions to: email@example.com. Copyright infringers will be pursued, and please note that Fair Use requires identification of the author/source and we require a link which when you think about it is really minimal recognition of our works and the works of those who are quoted herein.