A One Man Economic Daily Newspaper about the Second Depression in near real-time...
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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time ....some typos are fixed by 8:30 (in theory)
January 14, 2011 07:55 AM CST
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The Price is Wrong Report
We begin our daily wade through the viper pit of "news got'chas" with the long awaited Labor Department Consumer Price Report. If the December increases are annualized, it pencils out to an annual goods inflation rate of around 6.1678%, plus or minus a floating point which I trust your pencils have, too...
The CPI report also has a kind of 2010 retrospective:
Well peachy. We could yammer all day about details and implicates of this, but our general outlook that energy, but more particularly food will be shooting up is revealed in the December "commodities less food and energy commodities" which actually showed a 4-10 th's of one percent loss for the year and was flat for the month.
Gasoline, in comparison was up 8.5% for the month and 13.8 percent for the year. Keep an eye on the Fairbanks Daily Miner reports and comments on the leaks of the Alaska pipeline, too, by the way...
Futures weak but not dead from this.
A 2011 Outlook
Someone sent me this classic noting that when it starts showing up again, time to be read to "duck and cover" may be close at hand....
Speaking of which, there is a very provocative note off Reuters overnight which asks the BIG UGLY question that most of the MainStreamMedia seems unable to articulate. Check it out: "Could the U.S. Central bank go broke?"
Those Cards at Treasury
Buried in the story "Treasury Launches Pilot Program of Prepaid Debit and Payroll Cards for Fast, Safe and Convenient Tax Refunds" comes this leaking insight into how the full-on press to get people out of cash and checks and into something electronic more subject to control:
Here's the question: Say I know someone who doesn't have a bank account because they owe back child support (or any other step-on-beast's-tail infraction). Are payroll cards any more garnishment proof than, oh, say, cash for example?
So Much for Vacation Plans
Word's out that the State Department is planning to put Tunsia on their travel safety warning list.
Gee, I was just recovering from their posting as 'not-so-hot' ideas, going to Niger where I was going to look into having some forgeries made, or Nepal where I was planning to contact my 'higher self'.
Can't go to Cuba for cigars, no North Korea for kimchee...and even my shopping trips to Saudi Arabia to buy well-head condensate seems to have become risky. Why, even trips to Mexico for dirt-weed and tequila have been risky. What is the world coming to?
Hardly any point to a passport, anymore. Except, of course, to fly domestically or to write a local check.
Rewriting Press Releases, Redux
A couple of days back I told you about rewriting press releases and how much fun it could be for the idle mind. Well, here's another one. The headline from the "Research and Innovative Technology Administration" (RITA which is in the DOT somewhere) sent out a press release yesterday proclaiming:
All of which - at least at first blush - would make it sound like "Gee, things really must be getting better..." But wait! Read into the press release and what do we find?
While the headline might sound really good, air cargo and international seems to be where the growth is...maybe it's the brining all the offshore jobjackers to America to learn Americanese, I just can't say.
Not to pick on the RITA folks, though, since they managed to include a 2008-2010 comparison which few seem brave enough to do. You figure out why...
Truth in Advertising?
Say, I bet you didn't know there's a website called www.distraction.gov, did you? Deals with safe driving, but there sure is a second meaning sloshing around in their somewhere...
Plane Trouble for Google?
NY Post reports this morning that Google's recent tie-up with the airline industry may come under legal attack...as in antitrust lawsuit.
Ah, the days of going to school...sneaking a smoke on the way home and occasional other mischief. (Hand me my slingshot?) The Tom Sawyer/Huck Finn way of life has long been a cherished part of America...the 'boys will be boys' stuff.
Except not any more, at least not in Texas.
An eye-popping report from the Texas Apple Seed project ("sowing the seeds of justice") rips state education types a new behind exposing the "Texas's School-to-Prison Pipeline" in a recent 200+ page report.
Not like the nation's local schools are the only place where authoritarianism is on the rise, however.
It's going global as shown in a new report out from Freedom House which says, in part:
From a strategic standpoint, a look at their five year map (who's getting more free, who's not) the biggest problem I see is Mexico, which the comparison map lists as a 10+ point decline.
Not that it really comes as any surprise, since the US-Mexico border is the locus of a low intensity conflict which has been raging for years, but with the higher body count of 2010, not reason to expect anything but more of the same in 2011. And I doubt that bodes well for border states.
Oh, and New Jersey is looking at mandatory $10 bicycle registrations. There's another big helping of 'restrictions on travel' meme, eh?
With Ivory Coast Eurobonds dropping on default speculation, I get the creative urge to write poetry. However, being a first-class dullard, I usually start with some else's work...in this case, the children's rhyme "Rock-a-bye Baby"
Age Related: With a birthday coming next month, I've been thinking lately -when I get old enough - if I put money under my pillow, will the tooth fairy give me my teeth back?
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Coping: Tears of Oz (& Brazil, and Elsewhere)
Might have been a 'dripping point' - sounds kinda strange to say this, but there's only just so much distance between "tipping" and dripping - and looking at the meteorological data, it looks like almost two months of rain, at extraordinary rates, has been falling both in Australia, Brazil, and I suppose we could mention Sri Lanka - where 325,000 - 400,000 people have been made homeless - and the Pacific Northwest, which is expected to be in serious flooding over the weekend.
The mechanics of this, from what I've been able to read, are pretty simple: Weather in 2010 was either tied for the warmest on record, or the warmest since 1901. but most of the excessive heat came early in the year. As the inevitable decline from record heat abates, and the atmosphere blows off some heat, the water supersaturated in the atmosphere is going to fall out as either rain or snow.
Thus when we look at what happened previously - back in 1901 - we can find events like floods devastating the eastern portion of the US.
Then there's the matter of the 1901 flooding in New Orleans.
Or, the flash floods in Idaho, or for that matter, flooding of Eastern Washington in 1901 which you'll find occasionally referenced. In Ephrata, Washington, between Ellensburg and Spokane, flood instructions for city residents note that...
So it's in our view almost highly probable that the coming couple of months are going to see a continuation of flood-related headlines from all over the place.
Not that things stopped in 1901. The Wikipedia entry about floods in the early 1900's starts in 1904, and features some impressive events.
From an economic standpoint, the flood impacts are likely under-studied. But, since we are much more "measurement-oriented" (mistaking accuracy of measurement for accuracy of thought as we're inclined) we should be able to measure via soaring food costs the outcome of what may be a turn down from a periodic global climate maxima.
Meantime, the sun, which ought to be popping off with more sunspots as we move into Solar Cycle 24, apparently hasn't read the headlines and is thus lagging behind like a dull child held back in school. Spaceweather.com this morning showed a single, solitary, sunspot.
Adding to all this is the plethora of volcanoes popping off, and as I mentioned to you yesterday, Mount Etna is now erupting. And, as this MSNBC report figures it, more explosive eruptions are probably coming there.
Then there's the contagion of volcanism spreading across the south Pacific. Our Indonesia bureau chief Bernard Grover, sent this latest just a few moments ago:
Which gets us back to the first-hand reports we're getting out of Australia where a reader was kind enough to contribute this on-the-ground view:
Not much people in America can do about this, except there is one thought which crosses my mind: When I see goods made in flood-recovering countries, whether it's Australia, Brazil, Sri Lanka, or Pakistan, seems to me the "right human" thing to do would be to put purchasing preference on those areas to show at least a small measure of support. Not sure if it helps, but it's a thought to roll around...
Finding the Leak
Bad, nasty computer crap. Lost a fair number of emails over the past 24-hours as I've been wading through the aftermath of my credit card being ripped off. This morning's mobile version of this daily report as a .MOBI file will be delayed for a bit, and if you sent an email my way between Wednesday night and yesterday afternoon, I'll try and recover things, but boy, I have to tell you, this digging out from malware is no fun.
I've been running MalwareBytes - which has done, by all accounts, a pretty good job. But - when I ran a few other products, such as SuperAntiSpyware and STOPzila, I found even more. 38 more, to be precise. Including a couple of keyloggers which might explain my recent credit card nightmare.
Well, at least there's a thread to follow,,,
Near as I can figure it, this is just one more sign from Universe that I ought to be moving toward using open-source coded product...and at present rates, I'd have been money ahead ('cause time ain't cheap) to have kept a Commodre-64 and modem. I may still go that way - which would be having a single machine dedicated to email, but even that brings its own set of problems; like how to move a reader comment into a web editor, for example.
So, if you've got a single product solution I'd sure like to hear about it. Most of the main brands of anti mal, spy,and virus product seem to have into performance-clogging monsterware.
The good news is that cookies haven't been the source of the nightmare, and even so, the folks at Maxa Research should be ready with Maxa Cookie Manager 5.0 for release Monday.
In the meantime, my other serious computer (i7, 6 GB/1.5 tb) has decided that it wants to take 18-hours to start Windows and so that ate up a bunch of time Thursday as well.
I friend of mine wrote me a note early this week proudly talking about the new Mac and exclaiming how virus free and hassle-free that was.
When I get these POS's back all playing right, I intend sending him a FY note. Or stronger.
Around the Ranch
Things to ponder from the yonder:
Then there's an email from a fellow researcher into the odds and ends of science who sends this:
And you thought all I did around here was look for ways to tap into the magnetic B-field, huh? Now if I just had computers that worked reliably...
The only thing wrong with the weekend, near as I can tell, is it weasels in the world "end" which just doesn't seem right. Too much to do....
Send your comments to email@example.com
Reader Action Department: (Or: Places to go to blow your dough?)
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Descending into Chaos?
We now have a pretty clear sense that the shooting of Congresswoman Gabriel Giffords was what the locus of the anticipated January 7 near vertical drop in 'release language' in the predictive linguistics from www.halfpasthuman.com was about. One day off from the forecast date, but the linguistics all, sadly, seem to fit. Some analysis is now in order...
The "Do Drop Inn"
Amazing gardens in about 2 square feet of floor space: www.mygroponics.com
Post your weird dreams to help our research along:
The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:
Version 5 is 'in the works' and we'll pass along details as they become available.
"Live on $10,000" A Year
Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Pass It On
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Thursday, January 13, 2011
Standing By to Crash: LifeFlation
We can begin this morning's discussions with either weather reports, or economic data, but the outcome is going to be the same, so it's possible to skip right to the conclusion and maybe work backwards from there.
I assume you've had time to read Clif's note on the www.halfpasthuman.com site about the (still) increasing chance that there will be a massive break in the global economy sometime between now and when he gets his report out between the 25th and the end of the month?
Starting on the Economic side of things, we notice that a number of Big Ugly factors are starting to fall into place.
Along about here you might be wondering, "How the hell can this be any kind of a baseball game with four strikes in it? - Doesn't George know anything about baseball, either?"
En garde! I ask in kind: How can it be a "free market" with the government printing up money at will? Touché, mon frer! Remember what I said about financial umpires?
Way I figure is this: Whether we get Quantitative Easing 3 (or strike 5, 6, or whatever if you're counting baseball style) doesn't really matter. The Main Idea is to keep us all in the ball game, even though some of us think it's pretty obvious that absent more interventionism, the "top's in" and all that remains is the stale beer and quickly failing confidence. Game's over, but let's all wait for Strikes Five, Six, and beyond and just keep pretending, OK?
If you haven't dozed off yet (some call baseball like watching paint dry) I mentioned that we could also look at the coming LifeFlation - which is herein defined as:
...is to realize that even oil which looks like a fine play at this five-minutes could similarly collapse since un employed people with poor prospects don't do a lot of driving.
You 'll remember in yesterday's report I 'splained that although the floods in QLD/Brisbane (Australia) were getting all kinds of press coverage, the reason for that may be a matter of convenience since flooded Brazil doesn't have the same language (which means a smaller Anglo-speak reportorial cast to choose ratings from) while there's also a general lack of media & uplinks in that part of the world as well. Confirmed, by the way by a Brazilian reader:
Well, that was yesterday and this morning we see where the British press is reporting the death toll in Brazil's floods is up to 335 - and climbing.
Not to minimize the damage in Australia, by any means - here, check out this video...
I mention this why? Remember the references to [stockyards] as part of the HPH SOTTC report? Well, way I have it figured, the price of cattle for market is really going to soar. Look at a can of corned beef in the store sometime and you'll likely see it comes from either South America or Australia.
May not seem such a big deal, except that it likely means meat prices will rise, and since there's not a lot of growth in crop forecasts, not to harp too much on this, but think famine and you may have a sorry glimpse of the future for humans.
Soooo.... Watch the terms like "torrential rains" in South America and "Queensland facing reconstruction of 'post-war proportions'. As will come out in the HPH forecast - likely to have a very high relevance north of the equator as well - and the timing will be surprising.
Speaking of which...here's something that will help you "get it" that when climate cools, rain falls from skies
The Laptop Toting Giant-Killer
You need to read up on who Piers Borbyn is, and if you have the stomach for it - because it will fly in the face of a ton of media hype to the contrary - you need to at least consider the big pile of hard science at "Slaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory" which is ever so popular...still....even as a mini Ice Age may be in the wings.
Oh, Didja see the video of Mt. Etna erupting now, too?
Let me see: Does volcanic ash warm or cool things?
LifeFlation's Other Terms
Not that LifeFlation is about to become vogue, but it's a nice short-hand way of expressing a complex thought.
I should explain that if you follow all of what gets written here, you may be guilty yourself of the same intellectual crime: Howard Hill recently asked a friend to read the book we're writing (economics and beyond) and the feedback was that we both tend to engage in a tremendous amount of "intellectual shorthand".
So to help corral up the idea of LifeFlation (as though eating isn't affordable, but used video games are isn't clear enough) here's a story that will help from CNBC this week "Lessons from Holiday 2010: There are Two Economies."
India, says the BBC, is going through an onion crisis which might do wonders for the local vampire population...
Meantime, Back at the Implosion...
I have to admit being a huge fan of Meredith Whitney: Sharp as a tack and usually right. But, then again, Bill Gross of PIMCO is no slouch, when it comes to soothsaying of bonds, either.
If I didn't have this here column to write, I'd go read everything on the net about Whitney going out on a limb and predicting municipal bond defaults - since it'd be a very "Thirties Depressiony kinda thing" and due any old time, as I read things, versus Bill Gross view that Whitney is overblowing things.
As luck would have it, the NY Post has a good summary of the views here and is highly recommended.
Other Matches in the Theater
....which might start things rolling on the downside:
Beer and ViseGrips at the read. A reader sent me a note - which I misplaced- about purse-sized ViseGrips...gotta get a pair for Elaine...
May be in the wings as a tanker loaded with sulfuric acid has capsized on the Rhine in Germany. I know, how does a tanker capsize on a river? not like there's rogue waves on the Rhine, you know what I mean? Still, half a million gallons plus according to a quickie back of the envelope scribble...
Watched the Obama speech in Tucson last night. I'd give him high marks on it. Very Presidential. "We can be better."
Amen. Except you and me, of course.
Coping: Life, The Game
A reader sent in a note on Wednesday suggesting that I not put the comments about higher consciousness shifting, dimensional collisions up only for the Peoplenomics.com subscribers who pay for the bandwidth of this site. I thought about it - and yes, there's probably enough for an ebook (with a little commentary) but my intent was to post everything this morning and let you do with what you will.
Then Life (the Game) intervened.
A server here 're-crashed', client work backed up, the big pipe to the internet went down, and on and on. Basically, one of those Wednesdays which except for the pleasant parts, wasn't what you'd call an inspired use of time onEarth.
So this morning, I'm going to run through a highly condensed, such as can be done in 20-minutes, or less this morning.
Remember our premise on this? Suppose that 2012 is not about some kind of a crustal shift that wipes out humankind, but rather the return of off-Earthers who come for a 'harvest of souls & consciousness - something which would be rare no matter how you play the numbers in Universe. Each of the following bullet points is from a different reader...
And probably the most interesting note of the bunch camp from Chris Tyreman of www.thechronicleproject.org which offered this ponder:
When you take all the musings, stir 'em up and refry them, the notion distills from this:
To something more like this:
Some thoughts on "disappearing people" can be found on discussion boards and interestingly, dimensional shift is one of the suspects.
Now remember the recent stories from readers who have experienced the time-slip/hyperchronism effects? Related? Let me know next time you're following a 56 Caddie down the road, get distracted for just a half-second (and not more) only to look up to see the Caddie has morphed into a late-model Camry.
I keep coming back to the notion that "being scared" [including and especially of death] is a kind of necessary training...as though this very life itself is like a computer-based-training (CBT) program (scarier than The Matrix but with benign intent) to temper our being into...into....what?
Time's up! ...I said 20-minutes, not 45, which this has turned into on the writing & thinking side... Still, makes me feel like just a little marker in SimCity...and maybe that's what we all are - just game pieces of a self-indulgent Master Game....
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Dam Concerns: Prescient Points
Both in the mass consciousness and in the predictive linguistics from www.halfpasthuman.com, we have had plenty of warning time - "Heads up!" alerts that things in Australia were going to be bad this winter. It's just how bad is only now coming into focus.
There was also reference to winter flooding in the October 20, 2010 Shape Of Things To Come report (reproduced with 3exclusive permission here):
Which gets us to the big story of the morning which may be found in any of the Australian news services: A large portion of suburban Brisbane is expected to receive flood water today: The story "A dam and a prayer" from the Sydney Morning Herald seems to fait particularly close with the predictive linguistics.
Oh, and Clif's note, "Oy! Mate! Look over there...!" has to be read with occasional clicks over to the Australian online dam levels which a reader spied here... And yes, be sure to note all the comments "Dam is spilling..."
[Linguistic note: near as I can tell either Oy! or Oi! is acceptable, oi, mate?]
As if the language filling the expectations about farmlands and stockyards being flooded is not bad enough, there's now a Reuters report that there's a "Cyclone brewing off Australia's top iron ore region" and it's likely to turn into a Cat 3 cyclone over the next 48-hours, or so.
Not that Australia is alone in this misery: "13-dead after heavy rains in Brazil" is getting less media play, but likely that's because of a language difference and less media infrastructure in that region.
Then, if you keep looking, you'll see there is some concern that flooding may come to Hawaii as well.
All of which leaves us with a very interesting ponder, as we review the "release language" which has been developing since Nov 6-8, 2010: This the 'release' going to turn out to be a never-before-seen level of flooding and weather anomalies in that region? The fact that the January 7 near-vertical drop in linguistic values turned out to be within 12-hours of the Arizona shooting of Congresswoman Giffords, seems to fill the near vertical release language for that particular day.
So with a new SOTTC report coming out around January 25th, we'll be closely reading what's ahead for the late winter through summer period.
Based on previous runs, we expect there will be much emphasis on media control/internet kinds of issues, but we shall wait for the next report from the rickety time machine...
Terra's Other Bites
Not that we have too many readers in New Caledonia, but down that way, there's a cyclone underway by the name of Vania.
Now, for good measure, let's toss in the earthquake data:
We've had a 4.5 and a 4.7 down in the Gulf of California area, where we're watching the Imperial Valley food production area closely. What makes these two notable is that they are west of Ciudad Obregon, which is about 475 miles south/southeast of Mexicali raising the noodle "If pressure is building up or earth is moving down there...."
Then there have been a couple of quakes down south of San Francisco...nothing big - yet - just a four-something and some smaller action.
Still, it's all worth watching because no telling which - if any - are prequel/precursor events. As I'm fond of pointing out, those who have even an approximate handle on the future are much better prepared to deal with it when it shows up in what has lately been some none to kindly ways.
Coffee Safe! (for now)
The impression, at least by some accounts like this one, is that coffee grown in Indonesia is not in immediate danger from a pending eruption of another volcano...
Still, our Indonesia Bureau Chief, Bernard Grocer reports...
All the hand-wringing over Ma Nature isn't going to change much, but at least with economic news, we can change the playing field, although ever-so-slightly.
Not sure if you saw the monthly wholesale trade numbers out yesterday?
Amazingly the figures were up 1.9% from October levels and up a whopping 12.2 percent from their November 2009 levels.
OK, why mention this? Because it could be the leading edge of massive inflation in the pipeline: You see the report is denominated in dollars and doesn't include enough unit cost data to really make sense of things. So if units are about equal, then lots of inflation this way comes in whatever the turnover rate is.
Or...the other side, if units are up a corresponding 12.2 percent from year ago levels, then inflation would be nearly non-existent.
The same report notes that inventories were up 8.4 percent from year ago levels, so are companies stocking up on product prior to letting more people go, or is there really something of a recovery going?
My complaint with most of this data is that since it's all denominated in dollars and units is not included, it's hard to figure what's production and what's inflation and heaven knows, can't make things that easy, could we?
Next we tear into the latest home purchasing data from the Mortgage Bankers Association which shows mortgage applications are up slightly, but their price index is down 10.5% from year ago levels:
Just have to keep those "empire of rental homes to fund my retirement" plans in the desk drawer for a while longer, I suppose.
Next envelope, please?
Census also has out the international trade figures this morning where we all get to stand around burning pink slips as we watch what the finely tuned, orchestrated job-jacking of American manufacturing has wrought:
Meantime, Back at the Blame Game
We see that state workers in Rhode Island soon won't be able to go on talk radio outlets if the governor there has his way... And then there's an0other member of congress claiming that if violent political rhetoric didn't cause the Arizona shootings, it will cause the next one...
Real Clear Politics has a whole gallery of comments. My suggestion? The political types are all yammering for attention. Too late for solutions, which might well have started at the local law enforcement level with previous threats apparently having been made.
Next thing you know, someone's going to discover the (alleged) perp had an AM radio, an FM radio, may have watched TV and...as some friends in the news biz passed along, apparently posted to an online shared-article site.
So is there a reason now to ban keyboards? Or, are people going to appear at various times in our history who act in illegal and crazy ways?
Fact is, if you take the number of shooting attempts against public officials, and consider there are 310+ million citizens, it's really a remarkably small percentage.
Coping: George's New Diet
If this morning's column seems a little short - or at least a bit less wordy than usual - you have Timothy Ferris to blame.
"Who and why?"
Tim Ferris has written a runaway best-seller in his time & life management book The 4-Hour Body: An Uncommon Guide to Rapid Fat-Loss, Incredible Sex, and Becoming Superhuman The 4-Hour Workweek, Expanded and Updated: Expanded and Updated, With Over 100 New Pages of Cutting-Edge Content.
What makes it good? I'm generally guided - when it comes to ordering my reading list - to books that have good reviews on Amazon by other readers. That way, I don't have to put a lot of time (or thought) into figuring out what to read first.
So out of 1,083 customer reviews on Amazon, Ferris comes up with a 5-stars rating on this one. And, more significant to my reading order, only 16 out of 1,083 reviews, less than 1.5% were single-stars. Since Americans will gripe even about the proverbial "free lunch" and loved it...and even though some of it is what we've been doing in the East Texas outback since 2003, the book is full of all kinds of useful information.
But, that's not why the column gets shorter.
Nope...it's Ferris latest book: The 4-Hour Body: An Uncommon Guide to Rapid Fat-Loss, Incredible Sex, and Becoming Superhuman which is available for Kindle for a couple of bucks less than the hardcover's $13.98 (how I got it and read it).
I won't tell you all the hints in the book about how to lose weight, get control of diseases (including my gout, by the way) - since that would take much more time than we have here.
But a word or two about why the columns are more to the point and perhaps less wordy: Besides killing everything in the diet that comes from "white carbs like corn, potatoes, wheat, and so forth, Ferris pulled together research that says (among lots of eye-openers) that eating within 30 minutes (max. 1-hour) of getting up, is what needs to be done to effectively lose weight.
So this morning, I had a couple of scrambled eggs, and some rancyh-tyle canned beans (drains of excess sauce) for breakfast. Takes about 10-minutes to do the whole routine: Open can, nuke beans to warm, scramble two eggs, toss and eat with my usual two (measured) cups of coffee.
This routine is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, since my old eating habits - when IJ got around to it, and then too much - have to go away.
Sections on putting on muscle, the discovery that it only takes a few very short (think 3-minutes is short?) to toss in some exercise to accomplish metabolism change - is cool? Unlimited binge days are , too, provided theyt conform to a few pretty simple rules.
I won't publish the Excel sheet of the weight tracking for a few months, since I am new to this, but any diet that leaves in a couple of glasses of red wine can't be that bad...so off I go on it...
And that means pausing on the way to the office and eating some vegetable matter and protein first.
Won't bore you with any further references until sometime in February when I'll try to remember to post an update.
A couple of items to mention here. One is my friend SurvivalWoman has been doing a series of week-by-week small steps to build toward survival storage for the average family. One of the articles in that series to give you a sense of things is "More prepping tips for the average Joe & Jane".
Next is an email from Grant up at Emergency Essentials:
Reason I mention this one? because this is the package which we ordered and have had on hand for a couple of years. It's a good cross-section of foods, and when supplemented with local game out here in the wilds plus whatever seasonal foods we can pick off nature and from the garden, we figure it's workable, at least for the first year.
Then, toss in the rocket stove, a SunOven, and a good water filter......
Emerging from Mass Consciousness...
I mentioned the concept yesterday of a "collision between dimensions" which might be down under a lot of what passes for 'religion' in (more or less) modern times. And I have gotten a lot of email about it - so much in fact that tomorrow's coping section may turn into a small e-book so you can send it around to your friends. There is just overwhelming response to the core concept.
Here's a typical reply:
So have lots of other folks - so wake up early tomorrow; I rarely put more than a couple of hours of work into these morning reports (morning mental calisthenics is their main purpose) but today I've sliced off some time for a serious report...normally the kind of thing that goes on our www.peoplenomics.com web site with the premium content...
A Kiwi reader, catches us, so he thinks, in a mental tank trap:
No, no, no! You missed my point: As all this ag production from Queensland comes to a screeching halt, non Oz users of those exports are going to start raising prices. And, while it's true that floods do wash away gardens, a greenhouse on the side of a hill that's not washed away can still produce.
And as soon as the waters recede, people with cans of seeds (right column) ready to pop in the ground, could be back in veggies inside 90-days, seasons permitting.
And outside the immediate flood area, having a few stored goods is called either prudent planning, or worst case: famine prevention.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Down Under, Deep Under
Australia Broadcasting puts the death toll from flooding in Queensland to 10 and a good chance of it going higher as floods described as "Biblical" in proportion are leveling land, homes, and whatever gets in their way.
A reader located on high ground in the area sent this:
It's not going to show up at the local grocery stores in the next few minutes, but a long term problem of food shortages is coming into focus. The Sydney Morning Herald reports "Food prices set to spike in wake of floods" and that means the potential for global repercussions.
A Bloomberg/BusinessWeek story headlines this as the worst flooding in Australia since 1893.
Our recent whining, harping, cajoling, and nagging about getting your own food supplies online through gardening is hereby continued.
States to the Wall
We've been reading a number of reports over the past several days about the massive state income tax increase plans being hatches in Illinois. Nothing particularly nefarious about it; juast kinda like physics: Action (in this case spending) causes an equal and opposition reaction (in this case debt).
Still, with esteemed publications like the NY Times noticing that "In Illinois, a Giant Deficit Leads to Talk of a Giant Tax Increase" is likely a good summary. There are probably close to a dozen states which stand to see their public employee pensions go red/out of money by 2020.
Ah, remember the 'good old days' when dates like 2020 seemed oh, so very far away? In the ever-increasing speed of current affairs, that's almost like next week and soon enough, ought to be figured into market pricing not only of state but also county and municipal bonds.
Federal Risk Exposure Climbing
There was a piece in Capitol Weekly the other day worth mentioning as long as we're on the topic of government debt: "Government-backed mortgages soar in Golden State" reveals that only 1.3% of homes in California were backed by the government in 2004 and now that exposure is 23.6 perc3ent of home loans.
Same comments about markets and repricing risk *(as in previous story) apply here.
Near as I can tell, although there's a lot of deflationary movement in place, including the calling consumer debt picture, the government in the end will have no alternative but to inflate which means - in so many words - watering down the purchasing power of dollars further.
Oh, and when that happens, shorting bonds in the face of soaring interest rates will be where fortunes might be made. Or simply buying the 'yellow dog"...
So You Wanna Buy Gold?
Not often something like this comes up for sale - and rare as hen's teeth at that: a 100-ounce gold nugget is coming up for sale on March 15th. Best guess is that it will go for about twice whatever spot is at that time./
My guess would be somewhere in the vicinity of $3,000 per ounce, which would make it a $300,000 nugget...
Jesse's Cafe American noticed that with the recent commodities expiration, we might just see a real pop in silver since so much is being consumed in physical deliveries.
Already, as of press time, silver had popped up to the $29.50 level and seems to be heading north of $30 again, possibly within days.
Don't Pay to Gamble Dept.
Of course, there are those who claim that investment in precious metals is akin to gambling, and since there was a gold confiscation in the last Depression, no reason this one couldn't go down the same path.
Still, gambling is gambling, even if the odds seem more favorable in one game than another. And we have to give a nod to New Jersey where gambling is reported down 9.6 percent in the past year.
Here's an interesting bill prefiled for the coming session of the Virginia state House under the title: "Establishing a joint subcommittee to study whether the Commonwealth should adopt a currency to serve as an alternative to the currency distributed by the Federal Reserve System in the event of a major breakdown of the Federal Reserve System."
After you get through a couple of pages of "whereas's" you come down to a state studying whether it should be ready with its own currency!
Of course, they are not likely to go much of anywhere with this, but as we know, occasionally, where there is smoke, there's fire.
Arizona Blame Game
A good survey article in the Christian Science Monitor wonders "Nihilism or Sarah Palin: What Motivated Arizona shooting suspect?"
The answer is likely to be one we've mentioned before, but which doesn't get much direct discussion: Young people today are increasingly asking "Why" questions about life.
In many cases, they are coming from broken homes, from historically high divorce rates, they see parents who have thrown in the towel on the American Dream, they can't manage to save enough to build their own futures by buying a home, and in general, they seem to have a developing awareness that if the economic decline we're in not only forces them to move back with parents, and preempts their own upward movement in the workforce, what's to be cheerful about?
There are already over a thousand items returned for the Google News search "arizona blame".
A point which seems to be missed by those who would blame either the Internet, hard money supporters, or right-wing talk radio types: American has had a sad number of attacks on public officials going back to the Brady case, or Kennedy, or Lincoln, for that matter.
To jump on the net or sound money movement ignores historical precedence. But since we're in denial about a Second Depression, the soaring military might of China, and the collapse of the purchasing power of the US Dollar, the sinkholes of the Middle East, etc...we seem to have little difficulty moving into denial on whatever else comes along...
Profits of War
Say, you happen to notice the headline in the Belfast Telegraph "US forced to import bullets from Israel as troops use 250,000 for every rebel killed"?
Remember a couple of years back, we broke the story of ammunition shortages noticed by sportsmen in the US? Well, these statistics seem to put that story in perspective...
Notice there were a couple of earthquakes out in the Channel Islands/Santa Barbara Channel overnight? Map here. (the blue boxes off LA)
How Long Will This Hold?
Coping: Don't Welcome Aliens...
No, it wasn't watching "War of the Worlds" again last night that bring us to the question of "How to treat aliens from space" this morning. It was, instead, the story over at the Mother Nature Network quoting a "Study: If we're not alone, we should fear the aliens."
Honestly, I hadn't thought too much about this - and likely neither had you - since there is so much other 'crap' fighting for top of mind awareness.
With tax season just around the corner (whenever the computers get updated) and with the economy stuck in the functional equivalent of quicksand, and the outlook for ending any US military involvements near zero, asking about how to treat aliens may be considered down the food chain, just a bit.
Now, however, since the study is getting traction around the net, I'm beginning to pay attention. The Christian Science Monitor'as coverage of the story carries the subhead: "British scientist Simon Conway Morris believes there are only two possibilities for alien life; either we're alone or aliens exist, and they are out to get us.'
Reading through the story about the study, and recalling all the sci-fi movies on topic (Contact, Close Encounters, Independence Day, and War Between the Worlds) one can come very close to the study results by just cross-tabbing the kind of viewpoints expressed in the movie.
In other words, having no particular knowledge, there's a lot of hypothecation. All of which isn't especially interesting until I crank in the George Factor. Which is what?
It occurs to me that although we have spent umpteen gazillions on research and the space program with NASA and the various military outfits, our outlook on space is rather, oh, backwards.
Since quantum physics is working on folding, bending, and mutilating space-time as a much easier way to travel, we have yet to see the definitive movie in what seems to be an underplayed aspect of science fiction, namely the middle ground between consciousness, unconsciousness, dream states, hallucinations, and quantum multiple dimensions.
Since I've hung around predictive linguistics as a kind of "jr. time monk in training" for what will be a decade in May of this year, one of the things which has become apparent is that not only is time a little slippery, but so is everything else, much to the consternation of monkey mind.
There seems to be something to the Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics, though, as proposed by Hugh Everett, which pulls things together.
If there are points where "world's diverge", then it's possible, too, that other worlds with other dimensions exist as well.
A good starting point, if you want to conceptualize this stuff is to get PD Ouspensky's classic Tertium Organum or the Third Canon of Thought and a Key to the Enigmas of the World. The first time I experienced an 'outside of four dimensions' moment was with this book and although very cool, hard to go through life in that mode of thinking, it takes so much work.
Still, there may be a lot more to the notions contained in various religions that doesn't get cranked into the equation. Are the gargoyles and the reptilian types depicted by various religions fictional, or is there some level of human consciousness that can transcend the boundaries between the "normal" (societal bounded) modes of thought and some other 'layer' of 'reality'?
We like to do a lot of externalizing of the alien/extraterrestrial problem, but it seems to me that the battles are already being fought and that a greater than zero possibility is that religions may be just the public side of an existing interdimensional conflict. Sure, there may be "orders in the back room" who are doing all kinds of rituals, routines, sacrifices, and exorcisms, but maybe in someone's dusty library in ancient tongues there are descriptions of a break between dimensions that lead to "wars in heaven" and on earth.
I keep coming back to a thought that haunts me: What IF 2012 is not the end of a calendar cycle in the normal sense of things. What IF instead the recent fish kills, birds smacking into things in mid-=flight and all the rest is just a symptom of a couple of different realities smacking into one another prior to a breach?
Another fish kill being reported in Chicago this morning.
Wonder is we're headed for dimensional walls caving in come 2012? In which case the answer to the alien question has been pretty clearly defined for at least several thousand years of human history.
They're out there and the only thing wrong we may have gotten is that they don't necessarily eat flesh (or they would have been here long ago, eating all kinds of protein).
The likelihood is that they eat consciousness. Perhaps this talk about "consciousness raising" is a last minute effort to raise up more for harvest - a kind of spiritual corn-fed feedlot operation.
And that's a pretty ugly concept this early in the day, but not yet well-described in mass consciousness. Except in veiled ways in different religions, of course....
Another HPH SOTTC
Yes, the servers were quietly turned on just ahead of the New Year and yes, another www.halfpasthuman.com Shape of Things to Come report is due out around January 25, or so.
A few readers are 'getting it' that the combined impacts of the terra events, economic events, and the Arizona case around January 7/8 constituted a major drop zone in release language.
In time...building tension rolls back into place around January 18th, or so.
A reader in the flooded part of Australia figures the last SOTTC report was all too accurate sending this:
So, yes, we are awaiting the next report with some trepidation. About like we look at the long range weather forecasts here lately...
Around the Ranch
Not too common to have snow down this far south (south of 32º if that makes a difference). Not only did we have about 1-inch of snowfall on Sunday-Monday, but now there's a cold weather advisory out that a "Canadian airmass have moved into North Texas" and with it will come colder temperatures.
Makes me wonder what we're paying all this money for border security for, I mean, how is this getting across the border and where is our money for bord3er security really going? Why, if we can't stop an airmass, what can we stop? It's like our borders are so damn porous!
Two thoughts offered by a reader:
We have our own "home spun" versions of these which are much simpler:
Monday, January 10, 2011
We're about as 'sure as sure can be' that the portion of the predictive linguistic data from www.halfpasthuman.com which referred to a near-vertical drop in release language January 7th was the shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords in Tucson, AZ this weekend.
The suspect in the shooting, 22-year old Jared Loughner, is expected to appear in court today to face a laundry list of charges including murder. Death toll, at latest count is six dead and 14-wounded, with Congresswoman Giffords last reported in stable, but critical, condition.
The thing we'll be watching in the wake of theses events is for a) more moves to end gun right as representative Carolyn McCarthy of New York is planning to introduce legislation which would ban high capacity ammunition clips just as the one allegedly used to feed the suspect's Glock pistol.
Then there's the matter of whether this will expand the already loosely used term "domestic terrorist" since although reports have failed to establish any link between the suspect and any organized 'group,' this is likely to be used in political circles as a a lever to decrease political dissent.
The timing of the store out Friday that president "Obama objects to plans to bar domestic trials of terrorist suspects" is interesting.
And, as I explained (in more detail) for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers over the weekend, this will likely feed into efforts to promote a federal internet ID system, which although it's touted as "voluntary" for now, might be viewed as having a chilling effect on dissent. The suspect in the shooting apparently left some writings in advance of his crime on his Facebook account.
In terms of predictive linguistics, which had anticipated a major release event for January 7 (off one day), the next major 'swing' in the flow of events' should become visible around January 18th when the tide of events is due to change and move into 'building tensions' language. A possibility of another data run is being discussed, but no further word.
The World, Shaken
As the political landscape of the US was shaken this weekend, so too - and much more literally - was the whole world this weekend with a high incidence of 5.0 and larger earthquakes around the globe. A few highlights:
In addition to these, there's been an almost continuous flow of 2-3 magnitude quakes down in the northern Baja area, south of Mexicali (and the Imperial Valley which sits mostly under sea level). With all the quake activity out there, we keep a weather-eye on things since El Centro is the largest American city below sea level and has a population of about 50-thosuand in the area.
Finance: The Week Ahead
Any thought that the economic storms are now past can be pretty well laid to rest with out out that Portugal could be the next of the PIIGS group to saunter up for a little high-level bailing out.
In Asia overnight we had something of a mini-crash in the Jakarta stock market which was down about 4.2%. While we haven't heard from our Indonesian bureau chief yet, what's apparently going on is that the Bank of Indonesia's rosy forecasts about core inflation being held in check at 5% isn't playing well with investors who can see things much worse than that, despite the happy talk.
Thanks to the whole global financial structure being intertwined, troubles in one place quickly turn into troubles for most. Stocks were down almost 2.4% on the Sensex although there were small gains in Japan and Taiwan.
In Europe, average declines were about one-half of one percent, with Brussels being down about 1½ percent.
A further reason for softness in Europe might be uncertainty over how the US markets will digest the tragedy in Tucson this weekend, plus there's something of a 'wait and see' attitude as we're in the "bit numbers" part of the month.
Today is kinda lame, but wholesale inventory levels tomorrow will be interesting along with the Mortgage Bankers Purchase Index. Shortly after that, the Fed will release industrial production and capacity utilization, which all together is likely to set the next few weeks of trading tone from there.
Wednesday we'll 'kick it up a notch' with the import/export price report, crude inventories and the monthly fiction-writer's gathering, a/k/a the Treasury budget.
PPI and the weekly unemployment ticks are on Thursday, but the Biggie is Friday when we see the Consumer Price Index report. Also the Fed comes out with factory utilization and production numbers. Although, for the life of me, with so many US jobs hijacked overseas to least labor cost havens, I have lost track of what's left to measure.
Futures were slightly down at latest check.
20 police have died in fighting in South Sudan overnight. While former president Jimmy Carter is telling CNN that the south of the country shouldn't carry any debts if it succeeds from the north (per the head of the country).
So, are these just local folks who have a beef with the central government? Ha! Not bloody likely.
As so much else in this troubled world, there's an economic angle to it in that the southern part of Sudan may have large oil deposits which (guh) probably explains why all the violence there, you think?
Coping: A Curious Timing Note
Last Thursday and Friday, much space on the internet was being devoted to the mysterious deaths of fish, marine life, and birds which had been falling down, drowning, or dying what seemed like almost everywhere.
While there's a bit of carry-over to this occurring now, in stories like Sunday's piece in The Examiner under the headline "Bird deaths in U.S., Sweden, Britain, Thailand, Brazil, and beyond..." there's a distinct lack of follow-on coverage.
We're still seeing the odd local-angle follow up, such as the WLS radio piece about how pole shift hasn't impacted Chicago runways. (yet?)
Tampa is set to reopen to traffic on their north-south runway on Thusday. Might seem like a simple exercise is spray-painting the new compass headings onto the pavement, but there's a lot more to it than that: For one, the taxi-signs have to be changed, the instrument flight approach plates have to be redone and communicated. Then, the airport terminal information system (ATIS) may include a message about runway renumbering, just so every pilot landing will know the difference between old headings and new.
Even more interesting is a note from a reader who went looking for something approaching a real-time report on where the magnetic north pole is on a daily basis:
So, in the spirit of cooperative public research, if you have found a near real-time source for north-pole drift, please send it along.
Despite the events in Arizona this weekend, which will no doubt cause a lot of media focus, there's still the matter of some mysteries concerning the bird, fish, and marine life die-off and the seemingly accelerating pole drift.
Tripping Over B Fields
If you're working on zero point energy and some of the other wild stories about this and that, consider the following email from a ham radio friend...which should pump some new ideas into your research projects:
The subject of B fields is mighty interesting since they have some very special properties, including producing torque on a magnet nearby.
"Yeah, yeah, yeah....so who gives a sh*t about magnets and magnetics in all this George - and what does it have to do with the big stories in the news?"
I guess I just find it interesting how magnetics, poles, and odd magnetic energy is getting so much into the background of events here lately...
For example: Mark Kelly, husband of the shot Congresswoman, was scheduled to make a very interesting delivery to the International Space Station in a couple of months. From Wikipedia:
No, it's probably nothing at all, but it just struck me as an interesting coincidence how magnetics was showing up in the runway change and speculation about the bird and marine life stories last week, and here we see an underlying role for magnetics in the tragedy in Tucson.
Coincidental? Of course! But noticed, nevertheless.
Especially interesting if you've seen the www.ready.gov commercial "World Upside Down" where a gamily experiences the sudden loss of gravity...
Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
George Ure, The People's Economist
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