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Paper-Over Weekend?

I'm not sure what's going to happen next week - and being a career coward when it comes to how I deploy both nickels we've managed to scrimp - we went to all cash positions yesterday after some gains in the very short term (think 26 hours worth).

 

The data is also inconclusive.  Clif's predictive linguistics suggests Europe is where financial panic will start on June 21 (+/- a tad) but Robin Landry's indicators at least short-term are saying a rally in the US.  Not that these are mutually exclusive.  We could very well see a situation where the EU gets real about imploding while the US could then become a temporary safe haven.

 

The problem with this would be timing the deft moves required to make some serious money on this.  And that's where I'm stumped.  If we get a pop in the Dow up to 12,185 to 12,220, then I might temporarily 'lead the boat' with shorts, but if we get much over the Dow 12,220 level, then there's still this outside chance no one is talking about where we could see the Dow go up to the 13,200 range.

 

Which then gets us to asking "Nice, but if that comes with hyperinflation, to what end?"  And another wild card/wild hair:  What about the Obama administration (without bothering to ask congress, which is clearly out of vogue on things like War Powers) promising some of that nice, juicy tax money to help bail out Greece?

 

For now, world shares are headlined as "slumping".  Gee, yah think?

 

But, then again, early this morning, we see where the situation in Greece is still seriously ugly.

 

But here's the question no one is asking:  While we understand why people in Greece don't like austerity any more than people anywhere else on the planet, no one has summarized the Greece budget (least-wise as I've seen it) to see how much of the current crisis is real current spending and income versus what portion is accumulated debt to the world bankster cabal?

 

If a significant fraction of austerity is due to accumulated debt screw 'em.  Void the debt and go on cash-basis accounting, operating the country within its current income. 

 

Which is what Iceland is heading toward.  You see where Iceland just restructures with a billion worth of paper at 3%?  Not entirely coincidental, we note that today is Icelandic Independence Day, which to my double entendre way of thinking is way cool.

 

S&P 1285 Day?

I figure today or Monday, we should get a pop in the S&P to set up my next shorting opportunity.  Dollar is down, which as you recall means gold is up, which means someone said something about bailing out Gree3ce with more paper.  Ah, here we go: French prez Sarkozy as our wallpaperer du jure.

 

Midwest Flood Jitters - N-Style

Eyes in the area report in.  Answer your shoe phone....

"So we meet again Mr. Bond !!!

 

Say, not trying to make lite of the situation in Japan. heaven knows we all say a prayer for the victims of that event.

 

Here in Nebraska with feet on the ground, and or water - take your pick !! Things continue to spiral in ways that only make you go Hhhhmmm, or WTF ??? Especially considering this Nuke Plant was already in the headlines back in April 1, 2011. Regarding the fact the Gov't regulation group deemed it one of those facilities to keep an eye on.

 

http://www.ketv.com/r/27392766/detail.html

 

A few of us in town actually do seem to care about this matter, but would be hard pressed to tell you locally where to go, as it has seemingly become a non-starter for the area MSM / TC channels. Flooding - covered, College World Series -  really covered............which if I didn't know better would lead us into the area of everything being a business model. Fat Chance - Right ?????  Can't be chasing off all that easy money for a little something like a nuke meltdown !!  No, I'm just making that part up - but of course !!!

 

The flooding has stabilized to a minor degree for the vast portion of Empire City ( Omaha )in the past day. However with more rain in the forecast, and more run-off from melting and the rains up North. Things could still be a little on the interesting side sooner, rather than later !!

 

It just begs us to ask the question - not that flooding isn't bad, obviously anyone watching Cliff's handy work over the past couple of years, and a few hits along the way know the answer to that riddle. Just thinking out loud here, but wouldn't the radiation in the air be problematic at best. Then this may really be a reach, but if the rain that falls onto the ground, and then downstream to Hamburg, Iowa and beyond being saturated with radiation over normally fertile farmland be a really bad thing !! Wow - hard to imagine they couldn't draw that conclusion along the way, not for it being without reason. perhaps even financially driven ones. Damn it, there I go again !!! Much like you work I find it interesting when the lack of a story - is the real story !!  Hhhhmmmm, indeed !!!!!

 

One last note, work for a major transportation company that is located in the greater downtown area, and just a few blocks from TD AMERITRADE PARK !! We have all been issued mandates to be on call for relocation to our back-up facility due to the fact that they have shut down the water drainage and sewer pipes in the area. Meaning that if we get a good does of rain and or more high water, we will be in the deep brown stuff even more than we currently are !!  GREAT !!!!! Now where'd I put that flipp'n paddle !!

 

Keep you posted.

 

From "One Cheery Bastard to Another "

The perfect reader has been discovered!  Well-informed, literate, cynical and with the right kind of self-image.

 

The Seattle Times 50-Years from Trinity series, with emphasis in this part on Hanford, Washington which we were talking about t'other morning is pretty interesting.

 

We're All So Fukushima'ed

"Worse Than You Think"

We've been half watching the data to see where the population of Japan will be relocating to, once the decision becomes obvious that the northern half of the country is going to be uninhabitable for workers.  Australia looks to gain most.

 

I know this is getting a little ahead of things, but the Al Jazeera coverage has been much more prescient that the US MSM happy talk (the corpgov has 109 nuclear plants in the US is a likely reason).  So, their latest "Fukushima: It's much worse than you think" is a must read, although normalcy bias and denial juice helps.

 

Watch the Philippines

A reader (care to guess where?) is a little worried about things in her part of the world lately:

Dear George,
 

We just want to say, you are doing just great in both Urb Survival and Peoplenomics.  Keep it up.  Here we are having fencing with China over the Spratlys, while the US says they're backing us up.

UP prof on Spratlys row: 'Sober heads' must prevail over 'war freaks' - Nation - GMA News Online - Latest Philippine News

Visegrips, as you say, while Philippine Navy consisting of 4 outriggers

is doing sea exercises in the South China Sea. 

MindaNews » Naval Forces Western Mindanao joins 6-nation exercise

Do note that a permanent US military force has been stationed in
Mindanao for some years now.

Army Secretary visits U.S., Philippine forces during Pacific tour | Article | The United States Army

If there will be any action in the South Seas, make one guess where

it will stem from?  We have never been free and this pretty much
sums it all up.  "...war is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is
strength..." George Orwell.

Near as I can figure it, nothing imminent -0 more bluster and BS by the governments involved, BUT the usual caveat is "until another war is needed."

 

Which circles us back to the question "What's a GlobalRev look like, anyway?

 

Weiner Gone

Wonder if he can get unemployment?  I'm still wondering is this was a sexsassination... Well, says Roll Call, his take could top $1-million.

 

Speaking of Layoffs

Wall Street is planning for another round of layoffs this summer. If you're thinking "Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch..." there is some poetic justice in there somewhere.  The same cost-reducing, jobjacking, automation systems that cost Detroit and middle America is still at work and going back up the food chain, huh? 

 

Programming software to replace a board of directors wouldn't be that hard, either.  Just optimize all decisions on revenue and retained earnings over a time horizon of X and who needs a BOD?

 

Creeping Surveillance

We've been talking recently about the dimming future of social media which is getting implicated more and more in everything from flash mobs to gang beatings. 

 

Against this backdrop, we note that NSA and internet carriers are working to protect defense firms.  But where's the software that alerts authority when more than 50 people get tweets or txts to go somewhere and behave badly?  Damn fine software design problem.

 

Semper Fi-ette?

USMC has its first female general.  File under equal opportunity war machines.

 

We Are Soooo Screwed Files

We see where in Maryland, government is going after kid's lemonade stands.

 

$500 fine, to boot.

 

There's not much to say after reading a story like this, except it becomes a toss-up between ViseGrips and a box of Kleenex in the country which once epitomized initiative, creativity and enterprise.

 

(more after this...)

 

 

 

Coping: With Fridays at the WuJo

Earlier this week we were talking about the couple that was on I-5, heading north who - after staying overnight just off the 5 and getting back on it - suddenly found themselves on a different freeway and having to drive for about 40-odd minutes to get back to the freeway they were just on.

 

This is a fine example of what happens in "the WuJo" - a kind of mental dojo where the observed reality is matched up with ther allegations of science and we're left to wonder if there's not something way stranger than acknowledged down under those outlier data sets.

 

With this in mind, carefully read the following account, which once again hints that there's something about space-time that is not so stable as most people would have you think:

"Dear George,

Back toward the end of January, my husband and I were returning from one of his doctor's visits at KU Medical in Kansas City. It was late in the day and we had about a 40 mile trip on the Kansas Turnpike heading west out of Kansas City. In the last few years they have moved the termination toll booth about 5 miles further west because of the "new" NASCAR track. Then, presumably because they had a few million laying around gathering dust they decided to create an exit to serve Tonganoxie, a town of 2700 about 5 miles north of the Interstate and Eudora (2800) about 5 miles to the south. The exit is barely used and lit up bright as day and is about 1.5-2 miles away from the turnpike service center. It is very hard to miss.

And yet... on that evening, it was twilight because the doctor visit was one of the last of the day, I was suddenly passing the service center and the Tonganoxie exit was no where to be seen -- really -- you can actually see the giant pink lights from the service center -- but no Tonganoxie exit in the rear view.

Interestingly, we also got home about 6 minutes earlier than we normally do. Now there is no reason to think that I was speeding. I don't usually go more than 75 on the turnpike. I had the bizarre feeling that "something" had happened but couldn't put my finger on it. I don't know of any weirding stuff that goes on around here like superconductivity or such ... well there is the Bannister Federal Complex where they make nukes and where the conditions are... um.... hot. (Lots of folk getting sick working on "either side" (nuke or non-nuke) of that place... (most recent story on it here a Fox 4 report, but there's more info about it at the NBC 41 site) but it is was at least 40 miles away from my location.

Anyway, weird. Hasn't happened again... yet... on the highway, anyway. I did have a lost time episode whilst staring up at chemtrails back in the Fall. About a 20 minute gap of time passed while I stood looking up in the sky (apparently) after walking my dogs. Again. Odd. The chemtrail was passing over head I looked at it, looked down at my dogs who were at my feet waiting for me to throw the ball. I looked back up at the chemtrail and it was virtually dissipated in what seemed like only seconds. I went inside and had been out of the house for over 30 minutes but only had memory of a very short 5 minute walk around the house and two ball tosses that take a total of about 3 minutes. No aliens in site, so I can only think they are seeding time particles in those chemtrails.

Stranger and stranger...

Space-time is obviously not permanently fixed and tied to some grand cosmic anchor.

 

In fact, just t'other day I was reading how sunspots may be matter getting so hot that time runs backwards in them, a kind of local event-horizon on the sun's surface.  Well, if that's why light doesn't come from sunspots, then obviously the notion of mini-black holes may not be so far-fetched as the science teachers tried to tell me as a kid.

 

But to their credit, of course, the whole business of science has a problem since it's founded on reductionism which believes at its core that everything can be reduced to this or that.  Instead, the more science gets done, the more complex things get, which is really not where the reductionist crowd wanted to go in the first place.  They want simple and surprise! 

 

Ain't no simple in Universe.

 

Damn Vexing Computer Problem

Say, here's a weird adventure for you - check this out:

  • When I open Outlook 2010 everything looks normal.  I have policies set so that nothing runs without my say-so.

  • As soon as I click onto an email (to come up in the reading pane) the system asks me if I want to save a couple of .html files that come up. An example file is {17A2588D-6558-43A7-AEA8-3853664A2E79}.html

  • I have uninstalled all changes made in the past week, rolled back the restore point, trashed all temp files, scrubbed all unread emails out of Outlook, run virus, malware and Maxa Cookie Manager and as of last night, it was working fine.

  • But, I come in this morning and it's happening again.

Although, in truth, since I had to tell the computer cancel twice to read an email, it has made me a lot more judicious about which emails to read.

 

Interestingly, down at the code level, those files will have bits of any HTML in the emails I receive.  Is thinks some Outlook setting I roached?  Sho' 'nuff.

 

I got it to stop, by Turning off the People Pane (Outloook>View>People Pane) but only after seven or eight hours of Richarding.  Which, amongst us computational grown-ups is the long version of dicking around with it.    Ever try to write coherent market and news analysis while troubleshooting?  Yuck.

 

Another one of those "undocumented features" perhaps?  FMTT.

 

As long as you're fixing my computer for me...Outlook has also stopped opening links directly when I click them and yes, Exploder is my default browser...

 

Flying IFR isn't this complicated.  Otherwise ever plane in the world would have crashed minutes after being launched.   At least there, the source of a pending crash is obvious, know what I'm sayin'?

---

One regular reader signs off his emails "Waiting for the Cosmic Ex-Lax." 

 

Here, too.  Although with email issues like I've been having this week, I'm investing heavily in suppolies of Charmin....

 

College: Worth It?

Ah!  A favorite matter of preachifying of mine (No! School is not about learning to think anymore, it's a tuition and yield per student game...)  has now been taken up by SurvivorWoman over at her site..

 

Same conclusions as I've proposed previously, but different data set supporting the conclusion and definitely worth the read...'specially if you've got kids dragging you toward that poorhouse...

 

We're learning that this works into their 40's, BTW so yes, the light at the end of the tunnel is what you think it is...

 

Speculations

A reader asked a very sensible question, which I thought I'd share the answer to, because it may have crossed your mind:

Mornin' George-

 

The time has come when I just can't keep my mouth shut any longer. Having read you daily for almost three years ( both on US and Peoplenomics), I can't understand why a fairly smart guy like yourself would stoop to play in the cesspool that is wallsreet's "stock market". I, personally think that Elliot wave analysis is pure BS, but that is what makes for ballgames. In defense of my position, I don't believe that one of Landry:s predictions has come true-especially given the "wiggle room " he usually seems to offer with them.

 

Rather than than chasing short term blips in the market based on perceived current events, why not develop a long term picture based on fundamentals and stick with it??? As an inveterate gambler myself, I well understand the allure of having big money "riding" (whether on the "field" or in the form of 35 long bond contracts...I've done both to my great chagrin. In contrast, in 1990 I came to the conclusion that the current system was hopelessly rigged against the little guy, an d that inflation would eat me up if I stayed "in paper investments". At that time I guess I became what you would call a "gold bug", and went all in. As you can imagine that has served me well during my subsequent 20 yrs. of retirement.

 

George, As you know, free advice is worth just what you pay for it, but it truly pains me to see you playing the pawn of those Wall St. assholes by putting money into their rigged game. I truly feel that by adding to your sole gold and silver coins. over time, you will end up far ahead.

My answer - a bit wordy - went like this:

"Will put up the answer in the column tomorrow, and with no name of course, but the short answer is once I got it into my head that I should play the market like it’s crooked my profits went up like crazy.

Since the start of the year I’m up a bit over 46 percent. That’s as good a reason to play as any, I think.

I’ve come to a couple of conclusions that allow me to do this: a) I am not in the market all the time – only about half. B) I know what their approximate plans are (the PTB) from reading Clif’s stuff and c) I am timid as hell. In for short pops only when easy money is at hand and then scamper out immediately.

We have differing opinions of Landry’s calls… I very much value them. But they are controversial at times, which is why I only post them now on the Peoplenomics side.

That said, however, he is not a wild-eyed gambler/testosterone crazed male trader-slinger like...er...me. He manages the outcomes for his clients with an eye toward good, but non-risky long term gains. So, for example, he would probably shudder at some of my ‘high roller’ moves, such as buying options on an already levered 3X index ETF. And, I don’t know as he would ever go “all in and then some” with client money. He's a seasoned pro and it's a highly regulated business managing other people's dough.  Which is why I roll my own and write about that so people can get period huge fits of laughter when Market Eats George.

Then consider this: I am a financial columnist and if I’m to be any good at keeping the reporting up, caffeine-driven trading with real dough on the table is the acid test. I seldom will say anything about which specific trades I’ve done, until after the fact and thus I avoid regulator nightmares. If I’m long – or short – the market, or if I write about what Clif’s work is hinting at for next week, well that’s the grist of a columnist and I am always and forever adding THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

I publicly announced my entry into gold in 2001 at $265-275 when everyone else (except you) was hiding. And into silver around $7 in July 2005. To just as much noise and jeering.

Now that I’m looking at gold with some suspicion wondering how high is up, since it looks momentarily “peaky” along with silver, there’s another boo-hiss from the wings; but that doesn’t bother me at all, since I’m running my own life and I’m a big boy who doesn’t cry when I lose and I’ve had some classics there, too. How many columnists in finance announced their purchases publicly and occasionally point out the 500 percent returns (silver) or  their 565% returns (gold)?

That said, the only way to report on the goings on at the ‘gang’s hideout’ is to get to know the criminals and delve into the gang's mindset a bit, but staying somewhere in the gray area between making enough to eat between consulting projects, but not so far as to make an obvious killing, since the rich don’t like small smart-Alec guys to take ‘their money’ too often.

Still, this is the land of the free, home of the day trader, and if I hang around the gang’s hideout and report on that now and again remember this: It’s my duty to take as much from them rich guys as I can. This has been a one-man garage project since day one – Clif’s work too, no fancy IPO’s or venture groups would come near him when the work was new – still probably won’t since being a time monk even the slightest turns a person into a pretty crass/in-your-face-no time for BS kind of person. Not the kind of thing investor relations can deal with. Not the right pedigree or whatever. So screw it. I’m taking all the money I can which is no where near enough.

The wife drives a 6-year old car and my pickup just turned 10. We both work 12-hours a day trying to make the world a better place using our brains and talents and a good part of that is “giving a lot away."  And we liver in a double-wide modular we've rebuilt pretty much from the ground up ourselves, although I will probably sub out putting a new roof on it here, shortly.

Last year between taxes and gifting (everything from kids to the food bank to….yada yada) we gave away almost half our AGI. Ever wonder what kind of country this would be if everyone did that?

I tick off a lot of people because I am not a big fan or long-term capital gains at super-low rates.  Income is income, the way I see it.  And if I were to win the PowerBall or TexasLotto this week (please God!) , I'd cheerfully send in the 40% (or whatever it is at the full-bore rate) since this is America and someone has to pay for it, and I'm not gonna 'chitz out' and then hide behind some specious argument.  We try to 'walk the talk.'  So we step up and in return, we lead a relatively stress-free life.

While we may agree that much of wall street is as corrupt as a broken septic system, there are time, like now, that I picture myself more like the latter times day-trading version of Robin Hood: I think of it as taking from the rich and redistributing it without the intervention of a congress which could be outsourced to the lobbyists via eBay at a huge savings.

Even more subversive? I’m spreading that kind of thinking far and wide; we’re only captives to the system if we fail to see how to use it to our own better ends.

People who one time made a killing and then offshored their money into tax havens are welcome to do so, but not if they live in my country where we do take care of the needy, support public education, and them's that can pay more should and in fact some of us actually do.

It's easier to make the adjustment to a lower standard of living voluntarily since the Second Depression is going to do that anyway.  Again, we try to stay ahead of the curve a bit.

Hope this helps...

 

Send Ure comments to george@ure.net


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The Ugly - Extensible - Depression

Contrary to what you might think, we're not really in the guts of the Second Depression yet.  We are still in the "fixing to get ready" part, where people have not locked up their wallets and where new cars are still occasionally sold and politicians can still get away with says "Good times are just ahead..." and have enough fools around to believe 'em and vote 'em back in again.  That changes later this year if we apply a little "extensible thinking" to navigating the Second Depression.  Times are about to get much tougher...and some of the developments I'm forecasting based on solid data series may astound you.

 

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Cookies Are Dangerous

If your computer runs slowly, you may have a problem with cookies.  These little code snippets are how some websites (and spyware) recognize you, track your movement on the web and so forth.  Here lately, as new class of super cookies has been evolved by the admen (and worse) that are resistant to normal cookie deletions through your browser's interface.  Flash cookies, persistent cookies, and super cookies...all easily managed with the Maxa Research Cookie Manager.

 

Take it for a test drive by clicking here - and it you like it, activation is easily done. If you're a heavy web user (who ain't?) you may find like I do that you've accumulating a hundred or more cookies per day.  Only a handful need to be white-listed, like your brokerage account or your bank.  The rest?  Software designed to spy on you that robs you of computer performance.   Been using it for several years and pleased as the Dickens with it.

 

The "Do Drop Inn"

Amazing gardens in about 2 square feet of floor space: www.mygroponics.com 

 

Strange Dreams?

Post your weird dreams to help our research along:

www.nationaldreamcenter.com

 

"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn't, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"

 

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It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too.....  Click here for the index and details.

 

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----

Last week's report is always here.

 


Thursday June 16, 2011

The New Daily Demon

Reports are all over the place, or 462 news articles which is close enough, bringing the public mind to focus on the elevation of Ayman al-Zawahri to head up al Qaeda.

 

In the upside-down and backwards world of four-gen warfare, once again we see the great leveraging of fear, which should please the defense industry no end along with proponents of the massive crackdown on 6-year olds and granny-ladies at airports which sells all kind of new scanning gear and provides instant employment boosts.

 

Quick: Which two-time Medal of Honor winner, USMC stopped the attempted fascist takeover of the Presidency in the (1st) Great Depression?

 

Answer: Marine Major General Smedley Butler.

 

Which reduces the question of "Will corpgov fascists attempt to steal the country during the Second Depression?" to a simpler:

 

"Which one(s) will try this time?"

 

Details of the last businessman's plot to takeover America - which most people are woefully ignorant of, since it shows that yes dear, conspiracies are often very real.  Read about it here.

---

So is this a marketing prequel to the next false flag attack to spin us off in a new direction?

 

Social Media: The "New Molotov" of GlobalRev

If someone has told me a year ago that by summer of this year, we'd be off into the "summer of hell" and that a global wave of 'humans acting badly" would be sweeping the world, I might have questioned the prediction.

 

Still, the predictive linguistics out of Clif at www.halfpasthuman.com were doing pretty much that and sure enough, the broad-brush label of BlobalRev is coming into focus more clearly every day.

 

Cast your eyes up to the "peaceful province" of British Columbia and notice how the Stanley Cup fans went mobbing in Vancouver  after the Canucks lost the cup final?  Not that this is the first time hockey fans have gone to excess, and in advance of the troubles, police were not expecting a replay of the 1994 outbreak.  So much for planning, eh, hoser?

 

What's different now - and by my personal estimate the thing that may bring down the curtain on personal messaging systems - is that flash mobs are being more and more orchestrated by mobile devices.

 

Along the same lines, we have to wonder if things like stealing from cars at cemeteries and/or funerals might be linked in some way to online devices?  Obits online, you know...

 

A flash mob at Las Vegas City Hall this week may not have gotten your eyeballs like the stone and burn in Greece, but to the design pattern conscious observer we see the pattern and the role of mobile devices really ramping up.

 

Not convinced?  A Crosswalk.com article this week "Barbarians Inside the Gates" hint that mobile devices and social media are a new twist on humans acting badly.

 

That we now know the US is working on portable "drop-in" versions of the internet which can be bridged to the social media is, pardon us, not exactly a surprise.

 

And whether we're talking Libya, Iran, the Egyptian, or now Syria and Yemen, FourGen is here and you can track it on FB and tweet it if you like.

 

Not a happy thing to report, but it goes to my contention that even though exports who forecast that SMS (short message services) would be the rage in society, the depth of the police/legitimate law enforcement issues have been seriously under-appreciated as the increasing use of mobile devices to form up around spontaneous tribal warfare makes raising an e-mob or e-volution as easy as a few pages and tweets.

 

Already, we have seen the Chinese call for increased vigilance against what it calls the "U.S. cyber war threat". But what if - and this is a big IF - the internet has gotten beyond the control of governments?

 

Is it possible that this is the 'ugly dawn' of machine-enabled intelligence, which is to say the mass consciousness arising due to networked computers linking millions of easily influenced people?  So much for the happy-talk of Kurzweil's "singularity", huh?  Maybe we don't get there and just shoot ourselves in the foot on the way - an ever-increasing possibility as I'm seeing the headlines cross.

 

The more I think about the "data wall" that comes in spring/summer 2013, the more I become convinced that as the role/use of social media to facilitate 'people acting badly'  (not just hockey fans), the more we'll have to rethink surveillance and monitoring of mobile devices.

 

Unless turn-by-turn directions to the American counter-revolution is really the point...but this late in the week, let's not go there.

 

The Income Gap: Poles Apart

No doubt a good portion of the GlobalRev meme is driven by ever-increasing income disparities as trhe rich do, get richer, after all.

 

So when we read about stories like "PG&E Hit Hard by Antioch Copper Thefts" we sort of lump it into the same box with people are going to do what they have to do to eat, that's just how hungry humans are wired.  Law ends as appetites grow.

 

Weekly Jobs Data

Just out from the government:

"In the week ending June 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 414,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 430,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,750, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 424,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending June 4, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.9 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 4 was 3,675,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,696,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,709,000, a decrease of 15,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,724,250.

While I'm expecting the market to come up today, I guess not everyone is as quick to point out that the US is not on the hook for Greek debts and workouts.

 

The Wall Street Journal sees no reason for the US to get involved, despite hints from the Oministration that a collapse of Greece would be "disastrous."

 

In EyeForAnEyeLand, I didn't see members of the EU talking about bailing out California a while back when out of state bondholders were trying to BK the state.  What's good for the gander oughta be good for the geese...or are they sheep.

 

War Suit

Some lawmakers (scary thought, huh?) are suing the Oministration over the US role in Libya.  The O'sters say t'ain' really a war don'tcha know.

 

But, if there's dead people l;aying around  and it's going to cost $1.1 billion of my tax dollars this year, it sure as hell ain't a sub sandwich, is it?

 

ViseGrips and ketchup, please.

 

Next Week: The European Breakup

Not that we expect to see the Crash of the US market for a while longer, since my consigliore who has tracked every crash back a thousand years is convinced that "Crashes don't happen in summer!" but certainly the fall of Greece is a possible precursor to a Summer Crash globally.

 

Our standing prediction is that the Germans, Scandinavians and Russians will all renege on paying the debts of Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and whoever and will withdraw from the Fabian Dreamscape (the E.U.) when they get stuck with the tab.

 

Should get getting organized around the summer solstice next week, so be watching for it.  So hints the  rickety time machine.

 

Coping:  The New "Downwinders"

Although our trip to the uplands of Arizona for Elaine's upcoming reunion doesn't come for about  month, she spent some time talking with with a former classmate last night on the phone and one of the topics that comes up among Arizona uplanders is the matter of being "downwinders."

 

Not too many people are well-studied on the topics, since it didn't impact everyone in America; primarily those who were in the areas close-in and downwind from the US atomic tests at places like Hanford, Washington, the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Marshal Islands.

 

Uplanders from Arizona who were in the area there in the early 1960's, especially those closest to Nevada as a crow (of death) flies, we among the most susceptible, although it's a topic of great concern in in Utah, as well, since both states got doses of radiation.

 

The Wikipedia entry picks it up from there:

"...In a report by the National Cancer Institute, released in 1997, it was determined that the nearly ninety atmospheric tests at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) left high levels of radioactive iodine-131 (5.5 exabecquerels) across a large area of the continental United States, especially in the years 1952, 1953, 1955, and 1957. The National Cancer Institute report estimates that doses received in these years are estimated to be large enough to produce 10,000 to 75,000 additional cases of thyroid cancer in the U.S.[7] Another report, published by the Scientific Research Society, estimates that about 22,000 additional radiation-related cancers and 2,000 additional deaths from radiation-related leukemia are expected to occur in the United States because of external and internal radiation from both NTS and global fallout.[5]

The threat of downwind exposure to radioactivity remaining at the Nevada Test Site from nuclear weapons tests was still an issue as late as 2007. The Pentagon planned to test a 700-ton ammonium nitrate-and-fuel oil "bunker buster" weapon. The planned "Divine Strake" test would have raised a large mushroom cloud of contaminated dust that could have blown toward population centers such as Las Vegas, Boise, Salt Lake City, and St. George, Utah. This project was cancelled in February 2007, in large part due to political pressure inspired by the threat of downwind exposure to radioactivity.

I won't get into specifics, but the class before Elaine's, had a nearly 50% death rate, and although the atomic tests can't be blamed for it all, the death-rate was much higher than actuarial tables would suggest and - if you guessed a disproportionately high number of cancer death, Bingo!

---

I'm not particularly worried about my own health being impacted by fallout, although as a youngster (was there such a time?) my family vacationed for sometimes a week or two at a time, working on a large (10,000 acre large, feedlot operation and 5,000 under irrigation at the time) ranch just over the north side of the low hills that separated the ranch from Hanford a bit west of Smyrna on Lower Crab Creek Road.

 

Fortunately, the prevailing winds in that area seemed westerly and my risk is very low since the ranch was north of Hanford.  Even so, the incidental releases that went along with making plutonium at Hanford are immense and who knows how much record keeping just "disappeared" over time?  Again, Wikipedia:

"Established in 1943, Hanford released radioactive materials into the air, water and soil, releases which largely resulted form the routine site’s operation, though some were also due to accidents and intentional releases. Those who lived downwind from Hanford or who used the Columbia River downstream from Hanford were all exposed to elevated doses of radiation, which are presumed to have caused increased incidents of health problems and birth defects that generated widespread public concern over the public and environmental health implications of the site."

So why mention all this downwinder history now?  Well one simple point, really:  We have several nuclear reactors free-falling through containment (I must say 'apparently' for idiotic legal reasons) and more important, there's a nuclear plant in Nebraska which is in a very high risk condition due to flooding which knocked out (for we don't know how long) cooling to a spent fuel rod area and this week, the FAA has announced an airspace closure over the plant.

 

They don't do this for grins and giggles.

 

I mention this so that people of a curious mindset have another starting point for their research and so that we can extrapolate (in non-linear fashion) what the impacts of Japan's nuclear nightmare and possibly our own (soon come)  will do over time.

 

Tripping

If this morning's report seems a bit short - with less contributed reader notes, its because I installed MS Streets and Trips 2011 on this computer yesterday and (maybe because I left Streets 2010 on which was an option), not every time I try to open an email to read it, I get a request from the Streets 2011 add-in to Outlook that wants me to save three files.

 

So - either this is a glitch (ask me if I'd be surprised?) or whether it's a undocumented 'feature' doesn't matter.  If you sent me an email in the past 24-hours, please resend it.

 

Either that or it's the same kind of virus attack that took out Clif (great!  just what I need...) but none of the cookie, malware, antivirus ore firewall is catching anything. 

 

Are we having fun yet?

 


Wednesday June 15, 2011

CPI: Where's Hyperinflation Gone?

As I've been mentioning to Peoplenomics.com subscribers for a month or three, the spectacle of hyperinflation may be more than a bit overblown by the precious metals crowd.  Not that they won't be right - over time - but for now, the latest figures out in this morning's consumer price index report look not just tame, but boringly so:

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in May, its largest increase since July 2008. The indexes for apparel, shelter, new vehicles, and recreation all contributed to the acceleration, rising more in May than in April. These increases more than offset declines in the indexes for airline fare, tobacco, and personal care.

The food index rose in May as well. The food at home index repeated its April increase of 0.5 percent as four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased, with the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rising the most. In contrast, the energy index, which had been rising sharply, declined in May. The gasoline index decreased for the first time since last June, although the index for household energy increased.

The upward trend among the 12 month increases of major indexes continued in May. The 12 month change in the all items index, which was 1.1 percent as recently as November, reached 3.6 percent in May. The energy index has increased 21.5 percent over the last 12 months, the food index has risen 3.5 percent and the index for all items less food and energy has increased 1.5 percent. All of these figures have been rising in recent months. "

We can argue all day about methodology, but I went to the store myself this week and I have to say prices seem to have slowed their advance.  Couple this morning's CPI data with the Producer Price Index and you can see a future where the threat of deflation is almost equal to inflation.

 

Year-on Year food up 3½ percent doesn't exactly make the gold bug's case.

 

But here's the problem - and its why I keep thinking about a two-tier currency system.  If prices inside America are pretty stable and IF the dollar actually benefits from Europe starting its melting down next week (forecast), then where is inflation coming from?

 

Good question:  It will come from the international valuation not from domestic prices.  In other words, we may be doing fine on a CPI basis inside our own borders, and there may be some flee-to-dollar short terms as a result, but eventually, we're going to have to come to terms with other currencies sharing the dollars reserve currency monopoly.

 

When that happens, gold and silver investors ought to have a fine pay day. But, if you've been watching RV and used airplane prices like I have,  cash is talking louder than ever - and that's a sign of deflation, not inflation.

 

So look for the market to drop this morning (more in the Coping Section following) and then a snap-rally into options expiration (indices tomorrow, common stocks Friday) before we hit the real roller-coaster next week.

---

Medical care services were only up 3% year-on-year and with a locally reported over-abundance of docs up in Tyler, TX, I'm thinking that healthcare may be at (or approaching) short-term over build.  Makes me eye puts on healthcare and pharma stocks.  No decisions, but I'm thinking, I'm thinking...pricing power rules, does it not?

 

Constitutional Madness

Reports that house speaker John Boehner is 'calling out' president Obama on sending aid/guns/forces to Libya in violation of the War Powers Act seems to us more posturing than substance.

 

But, as we've long held, the Washington gangs will let no good war go to waste, so I'm sure the wars will occupy one of the three rings in the upcoming election circus.  The others will be "economy" and "healthcare."

 

The War Powers Act is advisory, Boehner doesn't have the votes to yank funding, and so it all serves as a distraction while the economy implodes, Japan leaks on, earth changes come a calling and the underlying "everything's a Business Model" implodes for a lack of growth,  Which gets me to our...

 

Bigger Things to Worry About Dept.

The Redemption of Robert Felix

We need to talk about hibernating sunspots again.  There's no way to count the number of emails I've received over the past several years since I started to mention the sound logic and science which Robert Felix put into his book "Not by Fire but by Ice", a copy of which is still kept hand in our library.

 

Not that you'll need to change over to mukluks and seal meat right away, but NASA is now talking about the possibility of a mini-Ice Age on the way as Solar Cycle 24 is turning into a de-spotted marvel.  Sky and Telescope has a dandy piece on this and it's not to be taken lightly.

 

No one is sure what the linkage is precisely between lowered solar output and Earth climate change, but it's pretty clear that solar output is somehow linked to the La Nina phenomena, and it likely has something to do with speeds of the thermohaline conveyor that keeps Europe inhabitable.

 

May (likely?) also have something to do with earthquake activity and extreme weather...but for now one this is coming into focus:  Robert Felix has been shown to be at least partially right and we all better be hoping he's wrong on how things develop from here. 

 

Yes man may have influenced global warming, but that might not turn out to be a bad thing, as seen from  the current peak of Might and Maybe Mountain, which science builds with new papers all the time, and then proceeds to move around as part of the the government's secret "full employment for science writers" program.

 

Drought: Worse Than You Imagined

As always, the news tips and first-hand reports from readers on local impacts of major events are very deeply appreciated.  Here's a report out of a reader in Amarillo, Texas, which makes the point the national drought story underplays the seriousness of the situation in the Southwest:

"George -

The drought monitor is misleading as it incorporates moisture that has fallen over the past 6 months.

The lake in the attachment (Lake Meredith) used to be the main water supply for Amarillo and Lubbock, TX, but the lake level is now down below the intake pipe. This year Amarillo has only recieved .68 of an inch of moisture since January (yes, that's 68 hundredths of an inch). Lubbock had only 1.1 inch up until a small storm dropped some rain in their area this weekend. This is the rainy season, but you wouldn't know it. Triple digit temperatures and hot dry winds like a blow torch that suck the moisture out of everything. Prairie fires are our constant companion - more than 50 homes around Amarillo burned this year including a boarding kennel that was destroyed with many animals lost.

There is no dryland farming and irrigation is not meant to be the sole water for crops, but a suppliment to rain. Some places in the US have too much rain and can't plant, but we have the opposite problem.

This is the driest year on record - worse than the dirty thirties or the fifties. The water table has dropped 200 ft over the past 3 to 4 years and many have had to re-drill their wells. The rivers are almost bone dry. Our city water now comes from wells 60 miles away which would make this a ghost town if we lost electricity for any period of time! Universe is telling us it's time to start looking around for an alternate place to be when the SHTF!

I sent a request for permission to print the pictures (one of a lake, the second of a dry lakebed - from the same place and taken 12 years apart) and if I get permission, that's be in tomorrow's report.  Shocking comparison.

 

Quaky Shaky

A reader's asking if that 3.0 earthquake up in Seattle was Clif falling off his chair?  No, of course not.  But since it was closer to Shilshole Marina, I wonder if the Sloop Tavern Yacht Club had big doings at the time?

 

Hands of Wiener Dept.

Say, here's a coincidentally timely "Word of the Day" from the Urban Dictionary gang:  Master Sexting.  My I-Ching Inbox function in Outlook is still happening.

 

Do you know what your congressman was doing last night?

 

 

Coping: Dreams, Memories, and Stock Tips

I had one of those marvelous 'vivid dreams" I get every so often in which bits and pieces of the future sometimes drift  through.

 

THIS IS NOT TRADING NOR INVESTMENT ADVICE but according to my overnight dream, but my Vitamix/Osterizer sub conscious is convinced that the market will be flqat to down today and that I should reopen my aggressive/leveraged short positions when the S&P 500 index hits 1,290.51 tomorrow or Friday.

 

It's one thing when stock tips show up from readers, but quite another when timing starts showing up as dreams.

 

Not that the 'dream tip" will be worth a damn, although in last weekend's report, Robin Handler's Options Signal Service was hinting at a down day Wednesday and then popping back a bit tomorrow and Friday.  And, Robin Landry's expecting a bit more of a pop before we get to a resolution between the two counts which are duking it out right now; one of them sees the Dow going down to the 11,500 area where another bull/bear street fight would break out (this is my favored outcome) OR, in his work we could pop up to the  12,185 range with a remote chance at 13,200 on the Dow.

 

For now, my subconscious  seems to be waiting for a pop tomorrow/Friday and then sitting back for the around the solstice action due next week.  Solstice, full moon, two recent eclipses and in a crash window (50-60 days)  off the April/early May highs...yeah should be plenty of fun next week.

 

But I seem to remember being screwed before when the Fed announced policy changes timed to achieve maximum impact in markets (2002-2003 period) which cost me about a Lexus' worth at the time.

 

So until I start dreaming of QE3 press releases and FOMC Minutes in advance, I'll be cautious as all hell with hints from the subconscious blender.  This is, after all, where I'm also getting "flying lessons" which consist of nurturing a certain noise/sound in the lower-right-rear portion of my brain and moving it down into my right shoulder and chest which then levitates my body.

 

When I get some time, I'll have to look through Carl Jung's "Dreams, Memories, Reflections" and see what he has to say about flying; So is it soaring wealth? Possibility of crash?  Associations abound.  I keep waiting for the golden scarab to land on my trading monitor.

 

Speaking of flying....

 

Congratulations

I was only kidding earlier this week when I said Elaine & I were not going to pop down to Chile for dinner on our Gulfstream.  A reader on the way south offered BBQ which is just damn nice of 'em. 

 

But, gosh-darn-it, I couldn't find the keys to our mythical  news-jet and once I did, I found I didn't have approach plates for anything south of Cartagena, Colombia.  (What was I doing with those?)  So sorry, but consider it a blessing in disguise since offering BBQ is one thing but with the necessarily accompanying the Chilean wines...I'd have never made it back for today's column.

---

And, speaking of whines I was pleased to receive word that our Indonesia Bureau Chief (formerly our Houston/oil patch chief) Bernard Grover will be "test driving" Bora Bora for us...

The wife and I are taking our honeymoon in Bora-Bora in December. Can I go ahead and reserve your space-time for you? LOL! By the way, a 4-day/3-night bungalow on the beach for two is $1,000, on this side of the planet. Breakfast and airport shuttle included.

Salam dan hormat,

Which, near as I can figure is Indonesia for respectful or deferential salutations or greetings, similar to cheerio (as in British phone calls, not the breakfast food).

---

Pappy always cautioned me on wedding licenses.  "Done right they're the best bargain left in this world..."  But then he very was lucky.  I know more than a couple of folks who curse those papers as the most expensive piece of paper in the world, too.  These, as you probably figured it, were the 'not so lucky' ones.

 

Wednesday at the WuJo

Time Warping

A couple of readers found our time-warp/dislocation story in yesterday's column pretty interesting.  And one found recent news coverage of clocks in Sicily jumping 15-20 minutes ahead without prompting.

 

Curiously, another reader found there is a reference in a mystical part of Islam to the "folding up of the earth" which exists also in Sunni, Shi'i, and Sufi brands of belief.  It's called Tay al-Ard and you can read up on it here.

 

Kinda strange for it to happen on I-5 south of San Francisco, but there it is in several cultures, not to mention the bi-location reported by Carlos Castaneda in the adventures of Don Juan - a most excellent read, with out without the peyote buttons.

 

George on the Soap Box

Red Yeast Rice Studies

Dr. Richard Fogoros has a dandy article on the About.com website about the background of Red Yeast Rice which I'm taking on my doc's advice.

---

The sketch of it is Red Yeast Rice seems to work - so much so that some of the pharmacorps went to court to get the FDA to regulate it, since  - we assume - if it worked it would cut into corporate profits.  Tisk tisk: can't have that can we?

 

The FDA dictated changes to RYR to remove the effective ingredient put there by nature but it still likely works to some extent even after FDA required processing.  (I take the easily absorbed version of CoQ10 with it (ubiquinol).

 

Now, I don't know about you, but to my way of thinking, if God/Universe puts something on Earth, far be it from mere humans to label it a Cosmic Mistake and throw on regulatory robes. 

 

Essentially what has happened in the RYR case is the pharmacorps have diluted Universe's creation which they now SELL claim as their own which is about the nuttiest thing I've read in a long time.

 

Still - the long arm of government keeps reaching - and rather than let people partake of natural goodness put here for all of us, corporations are "patenting life" like they had anything to do with the underlying.  Weed smokers have told me of this heresy for years.  So what if a natural plant has many medical benefits?  If there's no corporate lobby on the weed side, the booze lobbies will buy either prohibition or a piece of the action.  

 

Fine legal question here:  When do humans stand up and file a class action suit against corporations and governments for infringing on Life's original work? 

 

Unlike Frankenscience, when Universe fields a GMO crop, it's carefully tested under a wide range of circumstances (drought, pestilence, changes to the food chain) over thousands of years and any corresponding environmental rebalancing is done. 

 

Not so when all pharmacorps are after - at the boardroom level - is profiting by thieving Universe's original work, cutting corners in the testing, and calling it "patentable."  The notion's absurd!

 

It's be like me buying a brand new i7 chip from Intel, painting in green, claiming it to be a unique and non-obvious enhancement or derivative, then convincing a Ure Industries influenced pseudo-court to force Intel i7's off the market because Ure Industries ain't gonna make money on 'em.   

 

Why, that'd be crazy!  But that's what happened to RYR near as I can tell.

 

What's good for the mega-corps is what's good for the paradigm, which is why the world is quickly crossing over that boundary from unsane to insane.

 

Far as I can figure it, anything that is (or is extracted) from a plant it should only be regulated for purity and concentrations being accurately labeled, not banned or key ingredients removed, since a drug company wants to make money off it! 

 

Crime still gets punished, but picking a certain kind of plant a crime?  Chewing a certain leaf is a felony? WTF?

 

Last time I checked, Universe didn't make mistakes.  My tally on humans is ongoing but already the numbers are scary big, and I'm only 62-years into counting.

 

The FDA is one of those outfits which I figure oughta be subject to a mandatory 20-year cooling off period after employment:  Work for FDA and no pharmacy industry jobs for 20 years....otherwise the concept of 'captive regulators" comes into play.  Kangaroo court for drugs.

----

Mark my words here: As soon as bananas are found to have some health-inducing chemical in them, and a the pharmacorps figure out how to make the naturally occurring beneficial ingredient artificially, I fully expect the FDA to either remove bananas from the market, or demand a prescription for them.

 

Picture the headlines:  "War on Drugs Goes Bananas" or "Bananas Repealed."

The mind reels.

 

Here, drink some of that fluoride-laced liquid that passes for water and forget I mentioned it. If you find yourself skeptical after a few glasses, ask your local water department to put more industrial waste product in your coffee.  It'll be good for your teeth.  Right.

 


Tuesday June 14, 2011

Big Rally Tuesday?

This morning's headline could just as easily have read "Bear George Sells All Shorts!"  since that's exactly what I did at midsession Monday.  And with good reason.

 

If we look at a three-month chart of the S&P 500 - like this one here - we can see that the decline from 1,363 and change in April to the Friday/Monday lows might actually be complete.  The first move down to 1,316 would have been about  47 S&P points, which under Elliott Wave counts might lead us to expect there to be a further move down of 1.5 times 47 and change, or about 71 S&P points from the wave 2 retracement which went up to around 1,345 in late May.  So 1,275 would have been a perfect third move.

 

At yesterday's lows we were down around 1,266 and it was there I figured "Screw it...take the gains off and wait for a rally."

 

If things work out anywhere near what's in Clif's predictive linguistics model (where language on the internet precedes actual news headlines by sometimes up to a year in advance), we should see the eclipses tee off a major decline in Euro next week.

 

Paradoxically, that could be good for the USA in the very short term:  The dollar could rally significantly as 'hot money' looks at the 'safety' of parking in the US for a while, but then - linguistically - things propagate into the US in the week to four following.  Then our markets tank. I expect to be 'back in' for that one.

 

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.  I've just stepped out of playing on the freeway for a while.  I don't need to be worried about markets when the whole purpose of going to the www.columnists.com convention in Detroit is to think about writing and (worst case) getting enough guilt about sloppy punctuation and lack of proofreading here to actually piece together coherent columns more often.

 

Practical Matters

Even in the Great Depression of the 1929 - 1933 decline were times when the market advanced.  So it shouldn't come as any surprise that Europe is putting on a rally today.

 

How the US does in comparison will be driven by data released before today's open - like retail sales which were down from last month, but up compared with last year:

"The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $387.1 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 7.7 percent (±0.7%) above May 2010. Total sales for the March through May 2011 period were up 7.5 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The March to April 2011 percent change was revised from +0.5 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*.

 

Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from April 2011, but 8.0 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 22.3 percent (±1.7%) from May 2010 and nonstore retailers sales were up 15.9 percent (±3.1%) from last year.

Unless consumers can be coerced into spending more - and pretty damn quick - it sets the stage for the double dip scenario.

 

But, even more important than retail sales is this morning's Producer Price Index.  This is one of those numbers that's arguable either way it goes.  If producer prices (looking back up the supply chain) are going up in price rapidly then it's assumed that there will be inflation pressures when producer prices get rolled out up at the retail level.

 

On the other hand, if the producer prices are stable to down (relative to the Fed's money-printing rate -  which up 11.8% annualized (one year of data) at the M1 (cash & equivalents) level, or 4.9% (annualized, one year of data, at the broader M-2 level,) - then a much tamer future is seen.  Except if prices really start dropping, then it makes the case for incipient deflation which would kick the precious metals in the teeth and portend more layoffs.

 

Enough of this foreplay!  On to the PPI:

"The Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 0.2 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This advance followed increases of 0.8 percent in April and 0.7 percent in March. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods climbed 0.9 percent in May, and the crude goods index declined 4.1 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods moved up 7.3 percent for the 12 months ended May 2011, the largest year-over-year gain since an 8.8-percent advance in September 2008."

This is bound to be hard on the price of precious metals, since the modest PPI sort of banishes the bogeyman of hyperinflation.  Not at all like China where inflation is up to a 34-month high and, says Reuters here, they're upping the bank reserve ratio to cool things down.

 

Financial matters are slowly rotating out of public focus.  Not so much necessarily as a conscious decision:  It's just that fewer people have jobs, which means people have less money, which means they start looking around at other areas of life.

 

Biggest Robbery in History?

The L.A. Times coverage of the congressional hearings on the Pentagon's Missing $6.6 billion dollars from 20-some Iraqi airlifts of money from the Federal Reserve of New York is the stuff of which Pulitzers might be made.

 

A lot of time has passed though, and the finger pointing could drag on a long time.   It may even dog republicorp efforts to regain the WH next year.

 

Another Hat In the Ring

I don't know if that's the right trite phrase, but Michele Bachmann is now running for the WH.  Famous for occasional misstatements, at least with Bachmann the gap between what Americans vote for, and what they get, might be less.  Besides, what do facts have to do with running the country anymore?

 

Move Over Zimbabwe?

Greece now holds the world lowest credit ranking issued by S&P.  Question is whether Germany and the Nordic countries of the EU will want to pay for what to Teutonic thinking might be 'those lazy people'.

 

I have no faith in the EU getting through this.  Way I figure it, countries will start pulling out of the EU as soon as they start getting stuck with the tab for this Fabian nightmare.

 

Wallowing in Smoke

Reader report on the fires in Arizona/NM border area:

Hello, George- Do appreciate the attention on the AZ fire situation-although the greater SW is in the worst way with fires. We are a solid 5 hour drive east of the Wallow fire, and have been experiencing smoke like we have never seen before. Several times last week, visibility closed down to less than a mile-this is absolutely unheard of for a fire hundreds of miles away! The smoke is definitely impacting people's lives around here-and since the fire started gifting us with the smoke plume, we have never seen a full day with clear skies. The haze is ever present-and we often have to contend with the stinging odor as well. Best estimates are that the fire will continue to burn until extinguished by the summer monsoon-but its anyone's bet if the bone dry weather pattern will let up at all, even over monsoon season. National weather service was claiming that the dry pattern was easing up a month ago-but no one has noticed any easing around here. Actually, considering how shy the forest service is to use their power to enforce closures, its pretty amazing that the idiots haven't burned up more acreage! Well, we're all hanging on here, trying to remember exactly what snow and rain look like.

You may want to hold that thought a while longer: The U.S. drought monitor looks positively ghastly. And likely worse when it's updated if it's showing last week's report when you click into it.

 

Social Media: Going the Way of CB Radio?

We've speculated previously that there might come a time when social media (like Facebook) might lose participation because in the real-world, people have more to do than post trivia about themselves online.

 

Now, that time may be here as there's a report that although now near 700-million users worldwide, the service lost users in the USA and Canada last month.

---

Brings up an interest marketing phenomena which has always fascinated me:  What do markets do when they become super-saturated?  The shrink and whether or not the shrinkage is just by a bit, or whether it becomes widespread and disastrous is something marketing theory tries to explain.

 

Ultimately, growth in the economy depends on new consumption and the problem with many social media is that people only have so much free time each day and if there's not a long-term benefit (beyond novelty) where's the incentive to participate?

 

As you know, I haven't put a lot of effort into my UrbanSurvival Facebook page, nor do I spend much time tweeting.  None, actually.

 

Which makes me something of a rebel in marketing terms; no doubt there's something to be gained from investing marketing efforts in such endeavors, but marketing decisions have to be made broadly at the executive level.

 

I look at the number of products on Amazon with only three or four star rankings by user/reviewers and I ask myself "Why are some of these companies spending money on social network marketing, rather than simply addressing the one-star review complaints and simply making a better product?

 

What's missing in a lot of marketing departments is common sense.  Lexus didn't build their brand by social media.  They got there by being the absolute best they could be in their vertical market.

 

My point being that clever marketing  that harnesses narcissism may generate fortunes, but then again, so did CB radios.

 

For a while.  But eventually people drift back to the basics of WIIFM - what's in it for me and when novelty wears off, reality creeps back in.

 

Facebook isn't the only product in the marketplace which may be at super-saturation.  The sport of golf is there too:  Play was down 2.2% in 2010 and the people playing keep getting older and the new players are not taking it up.

 

Solid thinking on how to change things from Jack Nicklaus who's come out open to the idea of now playing 12-holes of golf.  People don't have as much time as they once did and besides, 12-hole courses would be cheaper.

 

But here again, we're back to WIIFM: What's in it for me?  Compare a round of golf to watching two BluRay's....and having enough time left over to...er...post a movie review on Facebook?

 

Coping: With Angry Earth

We've spoken many times about the major threats from space which in predictive linguistics make up the "space goat farts" part of modelspace.  This is where alien abductions, UFO sighting, huge outbursts from the Sun, and the general off-planet war with aliens is being waged.  Not that I buy all of it, since remember it's the language that's real, not necessarily the coming of aliens with a cookbook and a roasting pan like in the Twilight Zone episode.

 

On the other hand, the whole notion of "Sun disease" traces back to the earliest of data runs and we live on a rock which is extremely vulnerable to Carrington Event type outbursts from established phenomena (e.g. seen and blessed by science) like coronal mass ejections.

 

Which is precisely why you need to click over to the UK Independent report on "Tom Bogdan" 'The sky at night stops me from sleeping'" which gets into the nuts and bolts of just how vulnerable Earth is.

 

Predictive linguistics has a "data wall" beyond which (mid 2013) there is no more data in the model.  Whether that's because Clif sails off into the sunset (one possibility), or the Sun burps a big blast of energy in our direction and that ends "electronic life on Earth" taking out the national power grid and putting us into the Stone Age, can be endlessly debate, but only until March 2013 when the evidence ought to be unveiled before us.

 

Key thing to change in our thinking is it's long longer a data GAP - it's a data WALL beyond which humans don't seem to be communicating on the 'net anymore, at least in a simple-to-spider way, like it is now.

 

Whether it comes about because solar flares, earth quaking itself to death, or simply the US goes offline because we can afford the 50% of energy which is brought in to keep the lights on - that being purchased with quickly diminishing US Dollars - doesn't matter.  Figure two years to the biggest changes we've seen in our lifetimes and I'm guessing we'll be in the ballpark.

 

I trust you've been sketching the broad, imaginary, line being described by earthquakes reported on the USGS site?  Not that it matters whether comet Elenin, or planetary alignments like tomorrow's eclipse can be modified, but

it runs from between Anchorage and Fairbanks down through Washington State where there was a 2.6 offshore yesterday, down through that quake swarm up around Hawthorne, NV, most recently a 3.0 on June 9th,  then one down through Baja California, off the west coast of Mexico and then great circling down to Chile.

 

If you'd like to ponder the Pacific Plate cracking, and you don't like to think about being a Pop Tart for the Sun, then action around the Pacific ring of fire including the 6.4 yesterday in the Mullucan Sea ought to dimple your 'worry stone' a fair bit.  And the 3.5 on the Island of Hawaii overnight is also of interest, though on a body-count basis, the 3.6 southwest of Palm Springs, California this morning will like create more buzz.

 

On the other side of the country, events in Keene, NY are of interest where a huge (biggest in state history) landslide is causing at least one house to be moved - and maybe more will follow.

 

The UK Guardian has an interesting article on extreme weather ahead, too, calling the increase in environmental disasters a kind of "global weirding."

 

From where we sit, that looks about right.  Or Earth is just doing what the cats do when they get fleas:  Trying to scratch them off.

 

Government Power Grab?

Under the heading Police State USA, World net Daily's coverage of the new Cedar Falls, Iowa law requiring businesses and apartment owners to put lock boxes outside for emergency use/first responders raises from BIG constitutional questions.

 

Down at the WuJo

Been a while since we rolled out the big mat so science and observe3d reality can duke it out, so how's about we do that?

"Hi George:

Don't want to sound too wacky, but this one has the wife and I looking over our metaphorical shoulders. We were headed up I-5 Memorial Day weekend doing the drive from Phoenix to Eugene to visit relatives. Regular route traveled many times.

Spent the night 150 miles or so below Sacramento and got off early Sunday. Passed a couple of familiar landmarks and a rest area, cruised around a long curve to the right and all of a sudden we were near the Livermore city limits and headed for Frisco.

Got turned around and spent 40 minutes headed East on the 205 to get back to I-5. Wife and I are agreed that only a few (3-4?) minutes passed between the rest area and showing up near Livermore...did not pass the well marked I-5 intersection...did not pass any of a number of features you would remember (bridges, golf course, city buildings, etc)....just boom and there we were 30 plus miles out of our way.

We were still trying to figure that out when a little farther up I-5, sign says next town 32 miles...32 miles later by the speedometer we arrive at the town....except it took us 40 minutes to do the 32 miles at 65MPH...at that point we both started looking for Elvis and the mother ship. After two weeks of musing we have come to the conclusion that this reality is kinda holding on to it's stability by it's fingernails.

Might want to call the Livermore Labs guys and ask them if they are still dinking around with those ultra strong magnets that can bend space-time ;-).

 

But seriously, this is the kind of dimensional shift that could also factor in to the disappearance of data in 2013.  What happens if people all of a sudden don't ascend but start warping off to different places spontaneously?

 

When spatial shifts like the one you had become common place (they will, just wait for it) that's when Clif's "droolers who can't cope" with the nature of reality changing will become apparent. 

 

Should be way fun. Put Elaine and me down for Bora Bora, by the way.

 


Monday June 13, 2011

Bouncing on  Wild Earth

No, that was not fans of the Dallas basketball team ( Mav's won the NBA title you say?) that caused the little 2.7 earthquake just up the road from us near Waxahachie, Texas.  Just about smack under Maypearl, Texas and no telling what fan parties were going on there.

 

That odd 2.7 Texas earthquake might have been something as simple as Earth adjusting to having lower reservoir levels in this area, because of the Great Texas Drought.  In a normal year, we'd be at almost 21-inches of rain around here (with correspondingly higher reservoirs) but instead we're under 12-inches - just 56% of normal.

 

Not to be too Republic-centric about this, the 20-meter ham band was terrible yester because of HF Noise that was either coming up up in the direction Alaska, or out of the Caribbean (ahem!), where we noticed two small quakes in the Virgin Islands (3.2) and Dominican Republic (2.6).

 

Still these were nothing compared to the 6.0 and follow-on quakes on the south island of New Zealand down in the Christchurch area - again.

 

And if that noise was in fact coming from the Alaska area, I have to look at beam headings from up near Anchorage, for example, and wonder if there's a connection to the HUGE earthquake swarm in Ethiopia, the3 largest of which was a 5.7.

 

This is not to make any claims about the billion-dollar science project up north, mind you.  But the high noise on the beam heading of 330º and the reciprocal 150º beam heading coincident to a major quake swarm is at least interesting.  I'd be very interested in hearing from other hams with directional antennas who were trying to source the noise which was definitely not local.

 

Of course, my directional noise from the Northwest (or southeast) could be a coincidence.  Still, an organized ham radio project to coordinate beam headings of high noise of a certain peculiar type, cross-tabbed to earthquakes might be a very interesting hobbyist pursuit.  Or a simple FOI filing for output powers and directional headings plus waveforms, but no one wants to bite off on that one, the PTB not yet being completely the PTW...

 

Then there's the report making the rounds over the weekend that the March Fukushima earthquake was not a quake at all but instead a nuclear device planted offshore.

 

Thing about conspiracy theories - one way or the other - is a negative can't be proven, so we simply make notes and watch correlations.  And this morning 20-meters is flatter than a pancake with dead silence on those beam headings.

 

Oh - I'm putting off plans to launch our Gulfstream for dinner in Chile tonight due to flight disruptions from the volcanic ash down there.

 

Where There's Fire

...there's smoke - and enough of it from the Wallow fire in Arizona to start evacuations of New Mexico.  Fire's only 10% contained at this point.

 

Global Financial Collapse Watch

If you look at the stock market (as measure by the Dow, for example) and plot out the Grand Suyper Cycle, one can see that on a purchasing power basis the Grand Suyper Cycle peaked in the early months of 2000.

 

What followed, again an inflation-adjusted basis was the first leg down into 2002/2003 (ostensibly papered over by 'terrorism' and a New War) and then a good bounce up into the Housing Bubble Peak of 2007.

 

From there, we have been in decline, with recognition of the global next leg down in 2008, lows in April 2009 and then a nice bounce up.  But again, on an inflation-adjusted basis, the high was in during the dawning months of Y2k.

 

Fast forward to where we are now:  The most recent high (intraday) was May 2 of this year, and so counting out 50 calendar days, or so, we can estimate that the Crash Window is open around June 21 with the 55 day mark coming June 26th (a Sunday) so as soon as the market rallies into options expiration this week, another down leg (huge one) should begin afresh.

 

I cleared some personal short positions Friday (to have ready cash to play the bounce into options expiration this week if there is one) but by the end of this week I expect to be back 100% short again.

 

Curiously, this weekend in Peoplenomics I ran through some projections that suggest the deflationary case is still very much alive and that while gold and silver may well gain in what they will buy on a purchasing power basis, there's a good chance that as markets tumble, they're going to lose some of their lu8ster before government is forced into highly inflationary policies to deal with the 'second dip.'

 

This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - just writing about how my personal positions have been going, which is just fine, lately, thanks and no, I still have my TreasuryDirect account balances intact, a result of those deflationary outcomes that are popping up.

 

Still, headlines like "World stocks hit 12-week low" are hardly surprising.

 

Tomorrow we get retail sales and PPI but the biggy of the week seems to me to be the CPI figures which if some of the sources I follow are correct should be bad enough to press the Dow to a short-term low, from which the expiration bounce may be launched.  Still, as my commodity broker JB Slear notes, really triple witch is a week-long affair; and he's right, of course.

 

Current account balances come out on Thursday and I've got a note to look at how much corporations (aren't) paying in taxes.

 

Someone pop a cynical pill in my coffee, or what?

 

G-Men on Steroids

The FBI is about to rewrite its policies and procedures on privacy boundaries and while that that's causing concern among privacy advocates the slip side, I suppose is they have a job to do and the nature of threats to the country has changed.

 

Speaking of Which

...there's a report that new photo's of (soon to be former?) congressman Anthony Wiener have surfaced on the net.

---

Sexsassination:  New word that cropped up in my Sunday afternoon contemplations & ruminations on the events of the past week.

 

When I consider  (got the idea from coauthor Howard, much to his credit) to look at the actual voting record of congressman Wiener, I noticed that he voted against the Patriot Act and extensions, wanted to keep funding for NPR, and voted to cut House salaries and expenses, I can help but wonder if there's a design pattern emerging.

 

I mean, consider DSK from the IMF, Elliot Spitzer up in NYC, and others along the line Ensign, Edwards....there's a list...is there some faction that's deliberately setting up independent thinking people who are not "going along with the program" 100%?

 

Not enough data yet, but think about the concept of sexsassination and look at how it could apply also to a number of Hollywood types, as well. 'Specially those who dare speak out on things.  They, too, seem to be sexsassinated on a regular basis.

---

Of maybe men really are idiots led around by the petchewzelwhackers.  Whatever.

---

I suggested the National Society of Newspaper columnists rename it's "Sitting Duck" award this year something different.  In the interest of brevity, substitute an "i" for a "u" in duck....

 

Turnabout's Fair Play Dept.

Now that the Russia is objecting to the US having a warship in the Black Sea for "military exercises" we have to wonder how that shoe would feel on the other foot?

 

How would we like a Russian warship floating around in Canadian waters of the Great Lakes, for example?

---

Vietnam is holding live fire drills off China amidst rumors they might seek US protection.  WTF? Did they miss that little ground war down south of Hanoi, or is attention deficit more prevalent globally than I thought?

 

Coping: Are Statins Dangerous?

Writing about economics is a lot less contentious than writing about religion or medicine, since with these latter topics, everyone's got a belief system and is convinced that those who dare disagree are headed to hell straightaway.  Economics disagreements are more easily adjudicated by simple comparison of bank balances.

 

Still, been something I've been meaning to mention to for a while having to do with statins, which if you hit the Google search for [ statins danger ] will explain why when my doctor tried to get me onto statins a couple of months back I quickly declined.

 

The most concerning of the side-effects to me was transient global amnesia (THA) where some statin users report not being conscious for sometimes minutes at a time.  And, like our reader who wrote in to the WuJo Department recently, we often wonder if statin use might have something to do with why America is so crazy in who we elect to lead us, and whether that's entirely due to antidepressant abuse, or whether statin use may figure into election results is another tale.

 

About the time I went on the "4-Hour Body" diet back in January, a trip to the doctor's office for one of those "every 6-years whether you need it or not general check-ups resulted in both a diuretic prescription and (when the blood test came back and I declined to sell oil drilling rights to my forearm) a prescription for one of the statins to at least thin me down to 15-30 weight, or so.

 

Dutifully, I got the statins, but between losing weight and getting settled down on the diuretic routine, the more I read up on the statins, the more put off I was  by the reported side effects.

 

So last week, I went to the doctor again having developed some guilt about pushing the 3-month recheck out six months now, and when we chatted about George Badpatient, he suggested an alternative:  Red yeast rice which he explained was a natural alternative which had a low-level statin type action and which (for my body weight, 5-10 and 200) which is described on this Mayo Clinic web page.

 

The good news?  Blood pressure was down to 130 over 72 and that's with 10-point (or more) of white coast syndrome.  One the home BP cuff I've measured as low as 117/70 in a relaxed state, which makes me damn near normal.  Or, nearly so.

 

So, for what its worth, I'm now swallowing the best red yeast rice capsules I could find ($17 for 250, or about a 2-month supply) which seems an intelligent compromise.  In another 3-months, or so  (I'll push it to four, trust me) I'll go back in a completely changed man, again.

 

By then I expect to be down another 20-pounds, I will have been on the 'natural statin' for a while, and the weather may eventually break to where we can get back into the 'martini mile' exercise around the property each evening.  What's more, I actually will stop eating for the 24-hours before the blood work instead of wolfing down three eggs, two slices of ham, toast, hash-browns and coffee two-hours before the blood work.

 

One other big change?  I won't be returning from Branson 3-days before this next check-up.  I'm convinced their scale is out of calibration.

 

The bottom line for me?  I was very pleased that I'd picked a local doc who keeps up on things like natural alternatives to higher priced prescription drugs and was willing to suggest it.  He got a gold star on that one, or, if you're under 40 and have no idea what a gold star is all about, let me translate:  street cred.

 

Gangs and Vacation Plans

Since one week from today, we're heading to Arkansas, Oak Ridge, Dayton, Detroit (the Columnists.com convention) and then down to have dinner with Robin Landry and talk market direction, I've been working out our itinerary over the weekend.

 

By the way, the wanton word-slingers are seeking public input on the "Best American Columns of All Time" and you can actually note on this.  You can download the "15 Best" columns here and then cast your vote.

 

Anyway, I'm not so much worried about the trip up to Detroit, but rather the trip back.  I'd been toying with going through Chicago to meet with a consulting client who has a dandy telecom company up that way, and maybe even get together with Jim Goulding and catch up on the latest rumors about the goings on in the windy city bourses. 

 

Jim's book "Winter is Coming" is still a timely read about how Long Wave Economics works, although here lately, while looking at the declines just getting underway, we're supposing that at least fall is in the air.

---

Back to point:  as the trip gets closer, I find myself asking those "personal protection" kinds of questions. 

 

A Googing of [ gangs Chicago ] came up with 384 results this morning, including a People's Daily article about how ChiTown's cops are up against some tough times.  If the gang situation in Chicago is serious enough to warrant mention in a Chinese newsroom, I got to thinking there may be a reading paranoia and prudence are both under the same letter in the dictionary.

 

Detroit on the other hand, had only 79 hits when I checked out [ gangs Detroit ]

 

The most encouraging bit about Detroit was that an Art Museum, says NPR, is about to open in a rough section of Motown.

---

I talked to my street-wise son George II to get some sense of the risks and he wasn't terrible concerned:  "Old white guy driving a five year old car that isn't all pimped out?  You're like invisible to gang members dad.  Just don't do anything stupid like trying to wear colors, know what I'm saying?"

 

Damn.  Have to scrap the idea of packing a red or blue bandana to try and dress local.  Not even going to have a temporary tattoo sprayed on.

 

Oh well, sports jacket it is.  Or, we'll just stay in the hotel, then.

 

Survival Comfort Food

SurvivalWoman is stocking up on simple 'comfort food' as part of what she and survivor hubby are salting away.  Also, if you're new to prepping, her article "Why Store Wheat - Wheat 101 for Newbies" is of interest.

 

Me?  Simple guy that I am, you've probably figured out our cans of cherry and apple pie filling that are stored away will end up as turnovers in the sun oven.

 

 

 

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Chart of the Week!

Before the chart, a little background:

Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug.  Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?"  "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.

 

So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track.  Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.

 

No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes.  So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:

 

 

 

"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest. 

 

Why sure it is...you bet.  A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure...  (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK?  Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)

 

Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"

 

George Ure, The People's Economist

 

Member: National Society of Newspaper Columnists

 

 

 

 

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