The Site They Don't Want You To Read Which Outs the Big Game.
Powered by subscribers to Peoplenomics.com
Friday November 25, 2011 07:55 AM CT Visit our FAQ
This site is supported by subscriptions: For additional content, please subscribe to Peoplenomics.
Double Meaning to "Black Friday?"
(Tacoma, WA) Our first little intellectual hurdle this morning involves a small point about how, every so often, Universe comes along and slaps people with double-meanings. Not saying it is going to happen today, but there's a chance Black Friday could turn out to be such a case. One meaning of "black Friday" refers to "in the black" [ meaning profitable] while the other meaning may turn out to be "Black Friday" as in [black plague, black death] and so forth.
The reason for my concern is my new indicator of market performance which seems to work often enough to be considered; it's based on something called Ure's Semi-Constant. It says there's a fairly tight coupling between the US Markets (at least insofar as the Dow and the S&P are concerned) and the US/Dollar in Euros ratio.
While the MainStreamMedia are spouting Black Friday in the retail sense (an example is here) the Ure Semi-Constant warns that the Dow could drop, based on our first reading out of the box, 277 points at some point during today's trading and almost 28 points on the S&P 500.
I know, this seems like a small thing, but with a major decline today we could break critical support and if that happens, the next thing to come along could be a break of the 10,655 level last seen around October 3rd. And if that one goes, then it's financial gates of hell opening.
Still, not much point worrying about it. Our 51-cents worth of paper abstractions in the form of a short position by way of a triple-bear ETF has brought our investment results for the year back to positive, although admittedly it's a crappy return of the sort banks pay people to park their money in CD's. A major decline here may prove an exit point, depending on bullish divergences, should they appear. More tomorrow for subscribers, but for those who thought I was crazy staying in my short position, you could likely pull the plug today at a small profit and call it good for now.
Day of National Stupidity
Already getting our first reports of customer-versus-customer fighting in LA and using pepper spray. This is such idiocy. Maybe I should give ViseGrips for Christmas.... a good pinch helps on morning's like this 'un.
On the other side, as this CNBC report makes clear, we can see the corporate supporters who don't want their paradigm busted, so out comes the [increasingly corporate co-opted] Tea Party with what's called a BUYcot.
Retailers, like Best Buy, are not allowing shoppers to pitch tents, which makes sense to anyone with 3 or more functioning brain cells: Who needs the aggravation of terminal shopping disease, anyway?
Days like this, I wish I were back in school and majoring in psychology instead of business. I'd be in the field gathering data on how many people own things versus how many things own people. And the corpgov owns it all. The latter data spikes right in here.
While it's encouraging to see the Occupy mindset arising, its also discouraging that there'd be a need for it.
Build to WW III
With the Russians working on hypersonic missiles, the economy down the crapper, and banksters needing a distraction, what better way than edge toward a second cold war with the option of going hot?
Pay attention on this one: The US is backing out of an arms treaty with Russia.
But wait! Did anyone ask Congress, or is this just more Hilly run amuck (still, ongoing, as usual)? No worries...Congress is just about totally lacking in testosterone and has suffered brain damage as a result.... so much for the Founder's idea of "balance" huh?
Russia has sent some S300 miles to Syria...but doesn't seem to be much coverage of what US death merchants are moving worldwide. Ain't asymmetric information warfare and a compliant press cool?
Mexico's Drug War
Even worse: We - the people - are not getting to the bottom of the Fast & Furious gunwalker scandal. That's being stonewalled. Seems to come down to butt-covering and bullshit....in other words, Washington hasn't changed. Despite claims to the contrary.
Dying to Succeed
Don't suppose you care about this, either, but the US is reported 25th in the world as far as life expectancy.
Worse: We pay the most for health care, but here's the deal, plain and simple: Most of what we pay is not for actual health care, but for marketing costs and insurance overhead. Oh and Big Pharma pawns trying to shut down a doc who actually cures cancer.
Say...any chance of an "Occupy Medicine" movement? Pay when cured or not at all would be a good start...
Plugging Truth Leaks Dept.
The television network involved seems connected to Vlad Putin and you know how these PowersThatBe are...they stick together. Especially when there's a GlobalRev against the Earth's political aristocracy brewing.
A little 2.1 in the Mount St. Helens area...and a note from a reader about it:
Hi George, Just had an EQ near you if you are still in PacNW. You can see it on all the pnsn webicorders for St Helens, except one that isnt working. Also, can see what looks like a pre-shock about 11 minutes before on one of the webies. We are in one of David Nabham EQ windows (perigee, syzygy) until into late Fri AM.
Same area where DB Cooper pulled off this T-Day hijacking 40-years ago. Speaking of which, look at the business model he founded: Simply amazing!
The Sand Antonio Desert
We've been watching with some interest the activity over in Groesbeck, Texas, where the town is within a couple of weeks of running out of water. This is a berg of about 6,500 people southeast of Dallas.
While there is a chance of rain in the area tomorrow...and Panama reports a couple of inches fell at the ranch in the past week, we still have to look at the official weather averages and note that Tyler Texas has only 18.78 inches of rain year to date and that means without at least another one and a quarter inches, we'll be living in a (gulp!) desert. Waco is somewhat better off, with just over 22 inches YTD.
(Been waiting all morning to write this:) Ditto, Dallas dodges desert. But just by inches.
BUT we'll be spelling it Sand Antonio, since at less than 14 inches, barring 6½ inches, they'll be in the official under 20" annual desert category. And there go your beef prices.
Why I Don't Trust Government Files
Remember that "hack attack on a water utility" a short while ago? No hack at all, says FederalJack and instead just a sleaze corpgov move to try and stampede internet censorship. Yes, that's right: You can't be trusted.
And guess who got sucked in by it? Me... I've since doubled my cynical pill dose.
Worldwide Brain Damage
At least in Japan, anyway. Wouldn't bet on the opposite here, though.
Maybe I have Black Friday all wrong. Maybe we should all say screw it, since we're being poisoned off, so why not just go out and buy everything in sight, refuse to pay, and with any luck, maybe we could bankrupt the system before the corps make the whole freakin' planet totally unlivable.
More after this.....
Coping: Leftovers and BFC's
(Tacoma, WA) The first item of business today is my annual update on the SST Sandwich, made famous by 13 Coins Restaurants up here in the Seattle area. It may not be on the menu any longer, but I think they can still whip one up. It's the finest use of turkey I've ever seen, and given a choice, an SST Sandwich is still my preference over turkey and dressing, although most people think that's weird and I won't argue the point.
You begin by cutting up the leftover turkey, about ⅔ cup, or so, per person, into 1" pieces. Then slice up ⅔ cup of mushrooms. Get two long strips of bacon going, while you're at it.
First thing you do is take a tablespoon, or so, of olive oil, sear the mushrooms in a deep skillet and splash with white wine now and then. Once the mushrooms are done, you toss in the turkey pieces and a can of condensed Campbell's cream of mushroom soup. Bring it to a boil and don't add any water!
Then thing you do is get a couple of pieces of toast - thick is good - and slice it twice at 45º making toast points but do not butter them. Put these on an ovenproof shallow dish. Now pour the turkey, mushroom liquid over this and top with two or three slices of bacon.
Finish by putting a good handful of Parmesan cheese on top and toasting that under the broiler. When golden brown, serve.
If you're not doing the cooking yourself, 13 Coins begins with some fresh French bread and an dish of nibbles including pickled veggies, some celery, carrots, thin-sliced hard salami and some dills to take the edge off. A Chardonnay works, or club soda, depending on your taste buds and waistline. Here lately, soda water has been getting more play with me.
Now fortified, we can move on to the second major task of the day: BFC or Black Friday Choicing.
I have a pet theory that says everyone in the world has about an equal chance at fame, fortune, success, and so forth, but many people don't hear when opportunity comes knocking. In short, the choices not recognized are the ones that keep us in our present predicament.
Whenever I see someone who is not happy with their life, a little conversation usually reveals a lack of personal choicing skills.
Since there are more than 7-billion people around, the need for good choices has never been higher. Only so many people can do this, or that, and to rise above the general noise level of humans, we have to make consistently good decisions about....well....almost everything.
Little choices like speeding in the car add up. Do enough of these decisions wrong and you get a ticket. Fail to learn from that and you get more tickets and higher insurance rates. Still dumb? The next level of bad choices repeated is signed risk insurance and beyond that is loss of license and I suppose jail time. Trick is to see the bad choices of others and make different ones ourselves.
So I try to be mindful of the critical importance of proper choicing 24-hours per day. Since, in a sense, what I do for a living is write about choices in the investment world, or do client work involving choices in product positioning and marketing. But everyone makes choices and if you ever wonder what defines whether one person succeeds, while another fails, its usually a combination of good luck and good or bad choicing.
Which gets us around the problem Elaine and I will be going through over the next couple of weeks.
What should we get the kids for Christmas?
My own preference would be to get them all a motivational audio series, like Lead the Field by Earl Nightingale for all of $6 at Amazon. A fine series of "how the world really works" that most people never take the time to study. I'd get this for the kids because we live in a co-created world and in order for us to do the dance with Universe right, it helps to have some dance instruction.
Often times, the kids will come out and make this, or that gift desire known. When this happens I get uncomfortable. If I go along with what they specifically want, doesn't that make me a party to their choices? I'll pass, thanks.
So, instead, Black Friday will likely turn into some small gifts, like the MP3 series along with a small check from the National Bank of Dad. If they want the gift, they will have to assert their choicing powers. And if I get them a generic tool, then how they use it puts the karmic burdens on them. Leaves us free to give and avoids long lines around shopping centers.
Bonus? Keeps us from getting all wired up with consumer genes so we can sit back, look over our lives and figure out what's important, not what's on sale. I won't have to pepper spray anyone, or stand in a single line. No parking lot blood pressure spikes, and no car prowls and break-ins.
Poverty is, thankfully, hassle free, except for the hunger and cold parts.
On My Wish List
A new kind of airplane is due to come down the pike shortly - with fan wings. Not sure what a bird strike would do to it, though...
Barter Sites List
This one is great. Who says we need to use "money" when we can trade among ourselves? Gubmit, you say?
Cooked Humans Note
OK, so there's enough radiation out & about to be a concern - contrary to what the corp shills would claim - so here's an interest little home science note from the web bot forum:
George, Clif; A member here on the webbot forum posted info on using the cameras in smart phones as radiation monitors. Here is EricW33's post. I thought that both you can Clif would find this of interest, especially if the apps could be expanded to report both readings and location information to central servers for public (and research) display.
Now this is of interest to anyone with a Andriod Phone or Tablet, iPhone, iPad or perhaps a PC/nettop/laptop/netbook with a webcam (though this is not supported yet). I was looking for some USB/Bluetooth add-ons (oscilloscope, radiation meter, elecro-smog meter) to my Gingerbread and Honeycomb tablets. I have stand alone meters for some, for example, a TriField (guass) meter which use a-lot. For myslf I see the tablets as a "tricorder" of sorts. Anyways work is being done for a standard phone/tablet to detect radiation. Basically if you've ever seen those Fukushima/Chernobyl video you'll notice the camera gets impacted by radiation - it shows up as "noise". So what they are doing is covering the lens (either rearward or forward) so it's dark thus more sensitive and counting the "noise".
In essence, the camera become a low cost radiation detection device. Now you have to take care in 4 areas: - There are fake meters for pranks & jokes and real efforts being conducted at universities and research labs so do your homework, - It's experimental so the idea is to collect data from many devices and further develop this idea (if possible). Do not expect the accuracy of dedicated devices. Stll, if legit, gives an idea, - When covering the lens use tape but have an area where there is cardboard over the lens so you do not damage it (DO NOT tape the lens!), - It's experimental. It won't replace radiation meters, won't detect alpha particles - if you can calibrate it to a SOEKS, Inspector 4 or other dedicated meter. Still if legit this 'trick' could suddenly make for many hundreds of million of radiation detectors around the world at a very nominal cost (just $1 - $4 for the Android app).
I am sure this would go 'viral' in no time in Japan and consequently research would be greatly accelerated. * NO additional hardware is required, just the app which is $1 - $4 (Android) and a piece of tape. I have to test this (and will shortly), but I thought I would give everyone a heads up. Normally I do not post until I have tested it myself but this was too intriguing to wait. It's to early to say, but, worth a mention. If you do - especially if you have a dedicated meter - post your results.
Clif & I will be talking today - so should have word for subscribers tomorrow and here Monday on when the next bot run will be unleashed.
Many important things on our agenda, though, especially pies.
Write when you break even: email@example.com
Reader Action Department:
Visit: The UrbanSurvival Amazon store. Books, computers & S/w and outdoor gear.
Now on our premium content site: www.peoplenomics.com:
Is the Post Office Obsolete?
(Morongo Casino, CA.) Boy, do we have a lot of ground to cover this morning: The usual tromp and trash of the daily headlines, then a look at the stock market charts and what it suggests about our future. And, sure, we will have another chapter in the "Coping Section" about what happens when a couple of nearly grown-ups take an old airplane and set off to travel around America. But, the most important part of this morning is to ask (as we do, every so often) the Big Questions. Like the one which has been vexing me since our departure: Is the Post Office obsolete? First, though, an off-planet look at today's headlines...as I present today's whole report as an episode of Star Fleet character interactions in an effort to make the "same old news" a little fresher and up to date. Data?
Computer cookies have a purpose in life - they facilitate things like online banking and stock trading. But there's a vicious side to them: They can be used to track your web use without you even knowing about it. And even more dangerous are the 'cross site' cookies which can install malware on your computer without you ever knowing it.
The answer? Maxa Cookie Manager, MCM.
Take it for a free test drive by clicking here - and it you like it, activation is easily done. If you're a heavy web user (who ain't?) you may find like I do that you've accumulating a hundred or more cookies per day. Only a handful need to be white-listed, like your brokerage account or your bank. The rest? Software designed to spy on you that robs you of computer performance. Been using it for several years and pleased as the Dickens with it.
The "Do Drop Inn"
Amazing gardens in about 2 square feet of floor space: www.mygroponics.com. And remember our saying at MyGroPonics: It's OK to be a vegetable...
Post your weird dreams to help our research along into what goes on at night in people's heads: www.nationaldreamcenter.com
"Live on $10,000" A Year
Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Pass It On
Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email. - Thanks!
Thursday November 24, 2011
This morning's report will be posted in "progressive fashion" - which means I will write a bit, publish, drink some more coffeee, write some more, publish, and so forth. Should be done around 9 AM Central time, but this is what happens when a) it's a holiday and b) I'm not in the usual time zone...
Reduced Instruction Set Thursday
(Tacoma, WA) Perhaps the single largest problem governments all over the world have is keeping some issue before their peeps&sheeps which is big enough to keep the current round of turkeys (or at least a paradigm defending successor) in office in order to ensure a kind of syrupy consistency to human existence.
With this in mind, one way to read the Wednesday headlines about the Russians working on hypersonic missile technology would be to imagine that if the War on Terror isn't yileding big enough "scaree factors" that perhaps what's needed in the recipe for power would be a healthy dose of "new arms race."
If you doubt my admittedly somewhat grandiose generalization - and you can think of them as my personal mental processors reduced instruction [mental] computing set operating system - you have only to keep reading this morning's headlines.
Here's another "peach:" Egypt's new military government is rejecting a quick end to its own self-proclaimed power to rule. Stickier than mincemeat, that's how this power and authority (especially to tax) stuff is, eh?
Not that it's always this simple, however. The fighting/rebelling, people acting pointlessly seems to be dragging out in Yemen where the president has thrown in the towel. Makes me think sometimes it's better to just take the money and run: Another one of those "reduced instruction sets" that can be applied to country running and casino visits, alike.
Not far off, in Bahrain, there's is some rumbling that Iran may have had a hand in recent uprising activity, but this seems almost a little too convenient since Iran is becoming a new fulcrum about which powers East, West, and Asia seem to be levering news events.
If you want a really simple way to look through the hype, headlines, and bullshit, just remember our "reduced instruction set" thinking outline: Follow the money, look for reasons to tax and/or repress, and then look for underlying generalized themes in press coverage which are designed, taken as a whole to let turkeys keep running the world for their more or less personal profit and amusement while we get something very common in the holiday aftermath.
Iran's Latest Swagger
While reduced instruction set thinking is useful, sometimes it's hard telling what's really going on. For example, this morning there are reports that Iran has captured 12 CIA agents.
What I'll be watching for it whether Iran later on will announce using these 12 as "human shields" at it's nuclear labs which I reckon are already on the Israeli target lists... After all, nuclear intel was reportedly what the team was after. Hmmm....some check game, huh?
Since ysterday's report was on the Peoplenomics side, I should say something about the Personal Income and Expenditures report out Wednesday:
Personal income increased $48.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $30.2 billion, or 0.3 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $8.2 billion, or 0.1 percent. In September, personal income increased $15.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, DPI increased $7.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $74.5 billion, or 0.7 percent, based on revised estimates.
Here's where it gets troubling for me:
Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- increased $6.9 billion in October, compared with an increase of $77.9 billion in September. PCE increased $8.2 billion, compared with an increase of $74.5 billion.
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $400.2 billion in October, compared with $376.9 billion in September. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.5 percent in October, compared with 3.3 percent in September.
Somehow, the reports from retails haven't been showing enough volume increase, so I have to wonder how much of the outlays increase was inflation driven rather than units. I suppose that's enough of a hint so as I won't need to come out as speak about inflation in the pipeline? Now one I know has been abled to save a damn dime, but no telling how rents and how payments might be figured as factors.
If you really screwed up the turkey cooking time, you can read up on how PCI differs from CPI over here: "The formula effect accounts for the different formulas used to calculate the two indexes. The PCE price index is based on the Fisher-Ideal formula, while the CPI is based on a modified Laspeyres formula.
Just make sure to hide sharp objects from your vicinity while reading, maybe have some hooch at hand, and don't dare look in your own checkbook for a local reality reference.
Inquiring Minds Wondering Dept.
Sometimes, reader inquiries are difficult to answer, given the complexity of the economy (or, playing field) today. Here's an example:
"Dear Mr. Ure: I was wondering if you could give me your advice about Gold I bought at 500. and 800. if I sell a part of it now I stand to triple and double my money. This sale would help my liquidity at this time. Would this be a good move as I am not sure which way the market is heading along with other bookmarks in the economy that do not look secure. Thank you "
This is what back in B-school would be a candidate for multivariate-induced academesia: There are so many ways to approach this problem!
But one simple way would be to use something called the Dow to Gold ratio.
Right now, the price of gold is about $1,700 plus or minus a ham sandwich.
What we could do is observe that the Dow yesterday did a 236-point face plant down to 11,257. Which means the Dow cost 6.621 ounces of gold.
Going into the gold price archives at Kitco, or other gold data source, and then going into Yahoo Finance, you can develop a number of ounces over time chart. It'll give you something to do while the turkey cooks.
The time to leave gold is when its purchasing power, relative to a food price index, a stock index, or whatever...average home sale price? Use whatever you want.
When the majority of calculations show gold is no longer gaining, then it'll be time to roll out of it into something else. If the majority of those things you compare it to are declining in price, then consider bonds since bonds do well when the "flip side" of inflation (it's deflation) is going on.
Thanks for asking and don't forget to keep stirring the gravy.
Black Friday Notes
Occupy operations are going on tomorrow around the country. OWS and others have figured out the way to kill the greed machine is to withold its main staple: Excessive consumption on wasteful crap.
Huge rally is going on in the dollar this morning, and if it carries into the presession tomorrow, look out below.
Prepping Goes Mainstream
With this dandy video about how a local CBS kreport out of St Louis report "Survival Shop Reports Jump In Sales To People Preparing For “Possible Collapse” Preparing for possible collapse? Like Greece, Italy, and now going seriously Europe-wide? Like it can't happen here? Help me now...
Some Kind of Tradition
Might want to read my friend Gaye's piece over at Back Door Survival: "Thanksgiving and the Abandonment of Life as We Know It."
Oh, and it is happening to us.
Coping: With Dangerous Knowledge
(Tacoma, WA) "Poor is the student who does not better his teacher," began my son's explanation. I have shared little bits of the thinking which has gone into my book "Victims of Process: How Unwritten Recipes Run People's Lives" with my kids and George II in particular.
One of the things I taught him early-on was that process trumps just about everything if you can just find the right authority lever to pull.
As an example, when he was in high school, and for some reason, or other, he decided to order pizza for his whole class at one of the high schools in the Kirkland/Juanita area east of Seattle.
This was many years back, but the long and short of it was that his pizza were seized by the teachers - who proclaimed there was "no eating in study hall."
Worse, once confiscated, the teachers then went into the student lounge and ate George's pizzas!
George was furious, and upon learning the details of the incident, so was I. But I thought "Gee, what a wonderful teaching moment about how "authority" behaves when it meets with "process."
So the school district was contacted in a formal way, and a copy of any regulation or administrative document, duly authorized by the superintendant and reviewed by the district's legal office, under which the pizzas were seized was requested.
We then asked for (and in a very formal way, with a cc: to my then counsel) where the district rules were regarding the conversion to personal use or consumption, the pizzas which at the time had set G2 back around $48 dollars if memory serves me.
As you might expect, there was nothing written and "approved" which authorized the confiscation of food from school kids, and worse for the teachers, there was nothing authorizing them to eat their ill-gotten gains.
After a short interval (with lawyer and press conference in the wings) George II quickly got his money refunded by the teachers, and thereafter had a miserable time in school - which resulted in his later dropping out and going the GED route and the on into emergency medicine via a circuitous route.
But the main thing was it demonstrated how people will often act as though they have authority even though, when real authority comes a calling, they don't and in turn can be "taken down" for exceeding their limited powers.
Fast forward to dinner and my son telling us about going shopping with Gary, his dachshund.
He explained that he got to take his dog anywhere we wanted because he was a "service dog".
But wait! Didn't people question a Dachshund as a service dog?
Well, yes, of course. But he had made up a fictitious organization which gave dogs to people with this particular kind of mental dysfunction issue, and thus, were entitled to a service dog.
Does everyone buy it?
No, of course not. Until, that is, he gets out the "service dog card" which he made up, complete with an elaborate hologram built into the obviously commercial-grade card which included a registration number for the dog!
"Poor is the student, Dad..."
Yeah, yeah, I'm getting that.
I made a note to share this as a fine example of simply defining the authority hierarchy, figuring out what its internal rule-set is, and then simply acquiring the right symbols which then give one authority to use as they see fit.
Scary? Gary the dog is extraordinarily trained, and no, he doesn't go into restaurants, G2 doesn't overplay his hand, but it provides an ongoing study and insight into how people lay down to symbols as simple and uncomplicated as a laminated card with something fictitious but very official-looking on it and with a dandy hologram. Detail and execution counts.
Works for uniformed services and various other authorities, too, so in the larger context, all G2 did was simply leapfrog to his own ends using the heavily programmed "card symbol acceptance gene" which humans have been bred to respect using but which is readily apparent using the "reduced instruction set thinking" process perpetrated by those on the marketing high ground. In other words, those with tax dollars to make up and buy symbols.
Is this bad or dangerous? I'm not aware of any laws against "Impersonating a fictitious organization..."
Or, is it a quiet and subtle use of programmed acceptance of authority to exercise a slightly higher level of personal freedom?
The teacher needs to think on this one for a while...uppity student and all.
From a reader:
Your story about the service dog made me furious.
Please direct your friend to read: "Service with a Snarl In San Francisco, lizards, rodents, and vicious Chihuahuas have all been declared service animals."
This is only a joke to HIM. It's because of people like him, who want their dogs to have rights equal to or better than people, that I and alot of others hate dogs and dog owners: "Top 10 Reasons Why I Hate Dogs."
And yes, I HAVE a dog. I would never force my dog on other people. I can't tell who's afraid of dogs, allergic TO dogs, or just doesn't like dogs. His behavior is just plain ignorant.
That "friend" is my son and I have been trying to teach him out of ignorance for let me see....uh.....thirty one years.
People in Black
As mentioned earlier this week, Elaine and I have both been astounded at the number of people who are weather black and dark colors. One reader suggested a read of the whole Johnny Cash tune "Man in Bal;ck" might clarify things a bit, in particular this part:
"Well, there's things that never will be right I know,
And things need changin' everywhere you go,
But 'til we start to make a move to make a few things right,
You'll never see me wear a suit of white.
Ah, I'd love to wear a rainbow every day,
And tell the world that everything's OK,
But I'll try to carry off a little darkness on my back,
'Till things are brighter, I'm the Man In Black."
Unfortunately, Cash is right and cash is king and we're its lowly victims.
While you may not agree with most of my economic conclusions, the report from Hispanic Business that the T-Day dinner cost is up 13 percent this year, sure makes me wonder how the Labor Department can be so far off.
Oh, wait, I did say peeps&sheeps earlier, and discuss authority figures, right? Doh.....
We'll resume our discussions tomorrow after a second helping on the stuffing and gravy as we size up Black Friday.
Wednesday November 23, 2011
Peoplenomics: Big Picture Day
Why Dow 1,651 is Possible in 2012
(Tacoma, WA.) We're are now well into the Second Depression and one of America's "traditional values" - the Thanksgiving Holiday Rally - looks to be in trouble as a falling outlook for the US and China seem to be conspiring to bring home the economic reality we've been warning of since the real top in the US Economy in 2000. From here, as data lines up, "it only gets worse." A few notes on how to hedge and what to avoid seem appropriate this coming weekend...but for now I'll get out my Carnac the Magnificent headgear and tell you I expect a surprisingly weak Christmas retail period and a truly dismal New Year. And Dow 1,651 in 2012.
More Thursday morning. Get up with the turkeys!
Tuesday November 22, 2011
No News Tuesday
(Morongo, CA) "Say what? Has Ure flipped out? Has he gone completely mad after just 3⅔ days in California?"
No, of course not. And I will readily admit that the "There's no news" assertion seems far-fetched on the surface, but bear with me on this for a minute. I'm simply saying that nothing has substantially changed except, like good little masochists, today we may feel better and the declines slow but it will only be of the "It feels so good when I stop beating myself" variety. We're still toast, Europe is still going down, and gold, guns and grub still seem like investment grade goods.
Our first evidence of a "beat-stop" is word that the kindly folks at S&P will not be lowering their debt rating on the United States. And you thought Christmas was next month?
Second touchstone is that Europe is rallying modestly this morning. Even the Greek stock market is up nearly 2 percent, as long as we're talking turkeys.
And for a time yesterday, my severely beaten bearish portfolio was back up to almost even for the year after being up as much as 79% earlier in the year but down as much as -25%, depending when I got up the nerve to look. I keep telling myself: It's only money, and not much at that, and that paper stuff ONLY buys "food and gas for the car" -- you know -- those non-essential, non-core items which crackhead economists making seven figures don't worry about like us reg'lar folks.
Last - though certainly not least - that proprietary method of seeing into the future which I explained for Peoplenomics subscribers, which is based on foreign exchange to dollar ratios, tells us that the Dow today should (based on a Euro exchange rate of 0.7401 earlier) should drop about 82 points, and the S&P should drop about 9.6 points...but this will get drifty as the exchange rates move around as the morning wears on.
Still, looks to me like a day when not much should be happening, and in fact, the world condition may seem by one or two measures, like things are stablizing. But near as I can tell, it's more like reaching terminal velocity in free-fall: things seem to be stable on the way down, but it may not become apparent until our next "event window" after Turkey day. Pre-holiday rallies are common, so whatever happens today should set up a dead-turkey bounce tomorrow which will set up happy-talk for National Call Your Broker Day (if you can find one anymore) on Friday.
Big Bad John Dept.
Lot's more ink is being splashed globally about the additional disappearance of customer money from MF Global which is coming to light. However, the forensic accountants (you talk aboiut a growth industry, eh?) are now hinting the size of the hole is abouty twice previous guestimates - $1.2 billion and climbing.
The real story?: How come federal regulators were blind on this, and why isn't someone in jail till it's sorted out? You know, when things like this go wrong in financially responsible countries like Switzerland, the bank or trading outfit president goes to jail. Happened to the late Dr. Paul Erdman, which is when he got started writing those financial novels like "Crash of '79" and so forth.
But, the Swiss government doesn't seem as politically motivated/funded/run as ours. Didn't used to be that way, but the corporate mobbyists in Washington defending the bankster class are still enjoying a general lack of public recognition of their successful coup. The more things change, the more they stay the same...OWS notwithstanding.
Of course, not all mobs have access to political leaders, but even a good-sized flash mob can do some pretty decent damage, as a 7-Eleven in Silver Spring, MD found out this week.
Of course, I'm confident that there will be some perps picked up and tossed in the box for this: Flash mob types don't make big enough political payoffs...ooops! - I mean contributions..... to keep out of jail.
But there's even more to this: We continue to see more flash-mob type incidents and even some pointing at the various Occupy gatherings as a reason why Homeland Security and other experts ought to be wosrried about the "dangers of a free internet."
At one level, yes, the open 'net allows for spontaneous gatherings, and these will no doubt to be touted as public threats, since the larger (and hideen problem) is that that 'net also outs a tremendous amount of social injuustice and truth-hiding. The way to preserve the existing paradigm/socioeconomic order is to contyrol thinking and net controls are the way to do it. So flash mobs come along as a pretext. Basic dialectic 101 stuff.
Net gets out of hand and challenges the existing powers? Create a threat as seize upon it as an excuse to throttle back the net. Graceful, huh? Add to it over time until a study group comes out and says "Remember all that bnad sh*t? - All caused by the free 'net which allows people flashmob and...and..."
Just wait until the new version of Goebbel's Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda shows up to save us all from.. ourselves. Can you say "Replay"?
Except in the modern version, instead of driven by "Aryan racial purity" this one is driven by something much warmer and fuzzier: corporate profits and defense of the ultra-rich.
Makes me want to write an update of the novel Fahrenheit 451. A latter-day Bradbury might call it something like ASCII 253...
As Goes China...
So goes world. And if China has a deficit next year, what does that tell you? I mean besides look out below...
2% Growth - BFD
Latest GDP report out this morning:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2011 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter) according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent. The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.5 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in PCE and in nonresidential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in state and local government spending, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in exports that were partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment. Final sales of computers added 0.22 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.07 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Motor vehicle output added 0.18 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.10 percentage point from the second-quarter change.
Don't me quoting that popular saying from the last Depression here: "Good times are just ahead..." Yeah, sure, you bet'cha, sport...
We are this morning and I have to tell you, I will be sticking to Elaine like glue after reading about a TSA worker being arrested on charges of sexual misconduct.
Immitation the Most Sincere Form Of, Dept.
Notice that Egypt's secret police is now calling itself "Homeland Security"?
Wonder if the US DHS will go after them in a trade dress suit? Where's my friggin ViseGrips? I feel the need for a good pinch coming on.
Coping: Post Fame Letdown
When we flew our plane into Palm Springs last Friday, we parked at the local FBO (fixed base operator) so the plane would be kept under watchful eyes, filled with gas, and so forth. Mind you, the FBO is the place where private jets, turbo props, and the odd old Mouseketeer like ours go when arriving in a strange town. Think of them as the airtplane equivalent of a gas station, parking lot, and travel center. Just instead of of the Kenworths and Peterbuilt trucks like you'd see at Loves along I-40, these FBO critters are at airports and have Gulfstreams and Lears in front.
This particular FBO is quite nice: Perfectly clean facilities (including showers and rest areas for pilots and crew - more upscale than truck stops) weather computers, maintenance crews, snacks, ground transportation arrangements covering everything from cabs to limos and on and on.
So when we walked in to this particular place (whose initials could be Atlantic Aviation) I noticed this wall on the right coming in from the ramp. On it were all kinds of signatures of "famous" people. Rudy Giuliani, Carol Channing, and all manner of rock stars, atheletes, and so forth. Really cool.
But that got me to thinking: How did they decide the little matter of "Who's famous?"
I asked one of the friendly attendants...and she didn't have an exact way of figuring it handy, and seizing the opportunity I asked "If someone had a few million Google hits on their name, would that qualify them as "famous?"
She thought about it...Googled me...and then handed over a black marking pen: I had just made it into the ranks of famous! I put my name over by the door - small 1-inch high it says G. Ure is all. Still, I was pleased: working 100-hours a week, or so, for almost 50-years and I was at last worthy of writing my name on a wall! No tag-marking and spray paint for me, no sir.
Saturday, I awoke and became concerned: My elevation to "fame" the previous day seemed not to have changed my life. Why, this close to L.A. I would have thought the Papparazzi would have heard of my wall-signing and would be rushing to take my picture.
Alas, all day long, I kept waiting for someone to show up. Maybe an autograph...something...hell, anything in the way of follow up would have been nice.
My consulting client down here was kind enough to take me up to the FBO Monday, where I checked out the problem with the transponder (which is now fixed) and paid the gas and parking fees. And yes, my name was still on the wall, in tiny little letters next to the door.
But still - no Papparazzi, no autograph seekers, no gossip about me in the Hollywood Reporter. No urgent calls from Entertainment Tonight...and even working with Peter Weller years and years ago back inthe broadcasting days at KOL....why none of it seemed to be coming together. No movie deals....nadda!
Fortunately, my client happened to have a camera in his cell phone...and he snapped a picture of me by the plane. I felt a little better but honestly, not much. And this morning, the momentary buzz has completely worn off.
Fame, I've concluded, is a lot like nitrous oxide. It's a gas, short-lived, and in the greater scheme of things doesn't mean much. It's a heady anesthetic while the buzz in on, but this morning the guy in the mirror still needs to shave, put on clean shorts and socks, and has another 10-hours a work to do, in addition to a cab ride to the airport and a 3-hour airport ordeal.
I share this with you to make a point: Given a choice between fame and getting my teeth cleaned, I'll take the dental chair and heavy on the nitrous. The good breath and better looking smile have a lot more utility value. I made a note for Elaine to pick up some pressure cans of whipping cream, just in case the dentist is booked.
A reader note this morning underscores one of the discussion points with Clif this week when I get up to the northwest:
Just thought i'd drop you a line to let you (and the pie men) know exactly how strange the words within words is getting - with the ability to skew Cliff's work: there is a band making the rounds in the local area called "The Airborne Toxic Event". A link to the radio station interview is here. So, not only could this point to an 'airborne toxic' but also to a specific event... as you say, everything depends on context...
Got to wonder if some of the stuff in modelspace might be related to airborne toxic event? Hmmm...if not, I know where they can get a hell of a deal on some left over fame.
Decoding George Dept.
"At the risk of sounding dumb or at least
uninformed who or what is AK AL? "
Alaska Airlines...airline code ASA if I remember right. Next
Alaska Airlines...airline code ASA if I remember right. Next shorthand question?
"What does GTF o ut" mean?
"Get the F*** out."
"Get the F*** out."
Ya'll mit tri txtng sumtim KWIM (know what I mean?)
Dreaming in Jakarta
We posted a note a few days ago (could have been yesterday, things are blurring...) about the reader who was in NZ but had a dream about flooding in Inonesia. Which I dutifully sent toi our Indonesia Bureau chief (and reformed Texian) Bernard Grover to follow up on:
I feel much better, having read that. Not! One feature of the tsunami dream that both the office guy and my wife mentioned was that the water seemed to be alive or animated. It reached out with hands and grabbed people. My wife says she woke up just as it grabbed her.
None mentioned any particular race or location, other than a mountain side. At any rate, I've made a list of things and in what order to evacuate to the second floor. If it goes higher, then let it go, because there is no way I'm taking the refrigerator up the stairs to the third floor!
volcanoes...sheesh, it's enough to make a guy miss hurricanes! "
By the way: 17.67 inches of rain in our neighborhood of East Texas, which means we still have a chance to achieve "desert" status with under 20 inches of precip this year - about half of average.
Why soon, the Texas greeting phrase will have to change from "Howdy" to "What'cha dune?"
News Takes Flight
Have we told this one before?
A photographer from a well-known national magazine was
assigned to cover the recent Southern California fires. The magazine wanted
to show some of the heroic work of the firefighters as they battled the
Monday November 21, 2011
Mario Brother Economics
(Morongo, CA) Or, was it Duke Nuke-em? Welcome to the end-game of what to my eyes is the biggest economics experiment in all of human history. The set-up has been a strong dollar, decoupled from anything meaningful (like gold) and put in a footrace with other cobbled up paper abstractions such as the Europe and now we get to find out who wins the "race to the bottom" in all this.
Some people are betting the dollar will collapse - which is a no brainer - but the flip side of this is the sticky matter of "How fast?"
You see, economics absent benchmarking to physical goods is largely a confidence game, as much as anything else. It seems wildly entertaining of Universe to put me in a first-class casino on the outskirts of Los Angeles to make comparison between behaviors on the casino floor, several stories down, and today's market action. I do my dead-level best not to laugh continuously about the divine comedy of it all: Universe puts me in the darnedest places, sometimes.
So, how far is down, you're wondering and why?
Well, as I've been expecting from the get-go, the Super Committee has been unable to come up with meaningful debt reduction (this will be pushed into post elections of 2012 territory on the calendar, and even then no real breakthrough is expected since the combination of mob rtule and promised "free lunches" will eventually cause the Greater Depression to be become widely apparent.
If this is, indeed, my long-awaited crash and burn decline, I will finally harvest some profits from my short position, but no counting chickens. All depends on how the debt downgrades come about.
If I were to place a bet, I would offer the period from December 2-8 (plus or minus three days) since Clif's next predictive linguistic report shows this as a high immediacy value bulge. What would be ideal would be a decline of some magnitude today and maybe into tomorrow, with a pre-turkey bounce.
If you've ever played those differtent elevators in Mario Brothers, or other video games, it's a fair analogy for what's going on. Relative disaster problem; answer's due at 4 PM Eastern.
Leading Idiots Department
Here, we read how the people of Spain are about to vote on new political leadership. Please excuse my guffaws, since in most countries anymore, elections are based on either more grandiose promises of even bigger and freer lunches, or they are simply bought by special interest groups; sometimes both.
After the Arab Spring
..comes the Fall and that could happen to whatever government is "ruling" Egypt. This is the part of the game where we see whether a West-frtiendly government emerges, or whether the plan is for an anti-West government to kick up a much needed "New Enemy" which would be good for the death and security industries.
Turkey's Pivotal Role
Say, notice how what Turkey says is becoming more and more powerful and influential in the Middle East mess? This morning, the Turks are saying Syria can't keep repressing it's people forever, though they seem to be trying. 24 dead in the latest.
Trouble in Lebanon
For the CIA where major ground intel has been compromised and a number of spies-for-US rounded up.
We see crude was down a bit earlier, despite the Middle East developments, which means ( I think...) that the dollar strength is still hanging in there for now.
Say, this is a rich one: Rahm Emmanuel is labeling the GOP field of presidential wannabes "turkeys." Which prompts me to spout "Takes one to know one, does it?"
Am I like the only guy on the planet who's straight-enough thinking to notice all these turkeys are in it for the gravy? FMTT.
Gravy-train is over! If you've been "in" GTF out! Aware people want to "change the dhange" and more of same-o ain't gonna happen.
Not Smashing Evidence
Old Rupe's News of the World did guess what to their computers? I suppose technically it's not smashing and grinding up evidence until something's been subpoenaed, though. No use taking chances, though, huh?
Waiting on War
Why, this is just liek watching pitchers warming up in the bull pen before a ball game, ain't it?
Coping: With Economics as a Clothing Problem
(Morongo, CA) While I was up to my mouseballs in client work (and some genuine thinking) this weekend, Elaine and the client's wife had some time to go shopping. Not that this involved actual spending" mind you, since it seems no one has any money, or if they do, they're not inclined to actually spend it since who knows what tomorrow brings. But Elaine loves to shop which is quite a different thing than buying. Visual stimulation - almost like a live video game. Pick up, consider, put back, move on to next item that catches the eye.
Not that she didn't buy something: She picked up a paid of
UGG boots, which, worn with spray-on-tight jeans, seems to be the main
fashion "look" at least in this part of LA. Comfortable, she explains,
and invented for Australian surfers.
And it's here the mind goes wandering off trying various logical integrations of the observed data from the fieldwork. For example, there's an old Wall Street saying: "The market is going up when hemlines are going up;' conversely, when hemlines are coming down, the market is usually headed that way, too.
Fine, I'm down with that BUT we got a problem not previously noted by market-playing sociologists: What the hell are we to make of it when the very hemlines themselves have disappeared? Skirts have disappeared!
We went downstairs to grab a quick bite last night before turning in. "Look how gray everyhone is dressed! It's terrible!" remarked Elaine.
A glance around the snack bar (fish and chips for me, salmon on a bed of greens for her) and I saw what she was getting at: Most of the staff were in basic black (I was wearing a black shirt and dark khaki pants and sort of looked like the help, too). The odd staff member was wearing various football jerseys. or maybe it was basketball, but you see the point? Dang...yeah, something has gone wrong with America's expressed self-image since the last time I got off the ranch. It's like someone has been selling gray auto-body primer and calling it a "chic fashion statement."
"See that group just coming in? Dark clothing, baseball caps, and they look like they just stepped out of a factory some where. Remember when people actually dressed-up to go out in public? Especially going to a nice dinner?"
Sure enough, she was right. 99% of the people looked like shit. Men were leaving their hats on while seated in the coffee shop - something my father would have never stood for, back in his time, because people were a lot more formal. Even if poor, people still had pride and they valued their appearance.
That seems to be gone. Maybe it was because it's raining in the LA area this morning, or maybe it's something simpler: Economic malaise is showing up in people's clothing and with that, their self-image has been flushed down the crapper. Important enough change that I thought it worth mentioning.
Gaye (my partner in www.strategic-living.net ) has mentioned this a few times, too: People aren't dressing up like they used to. When we were walking around the casino, we spied a VIP club and the sign out front said "proper attire required" and I got to thinking I should ask to buy the sign, as I'll be dipped and rolled-in-it if I can reckon what is "proper"? Right brand of baseball hat or the rightsports team jersey? I mean WTF: Only one person had a tie on that I saw and that was the delightful manager of the buffett. The4 sign could be a period peice collectable in a matter of years.
I should mention the buffet was doing a land-office business, too. Mind you, this is a high end buffet with everything from breakfast to lunch to Asian to roast beefs, hams, turfkeys, and enough deserts to cause diabetes just walking near that end of the 150-feet of serving lines. Long lines but not waiting for hutel guests..which suited me fine since detest lines.
I recently had my eyes checked for my flight physical, but this gray-out is nuts. No reds, yellows, bright greens, bright purples in today's clothing...NOTHING. Blah is in, looking poor is "wha's happnin" and don't look now, but I'm thinking this is the visual cue that yes, look surprised here, we're in a economic depression which is taking firm hold at the archtype/self-image level.
So to summarize the trip/fl;ying so far on this adventure:
Flight out last week was great, landings have been smooth
although we have become acutely aware of afternoon turbulence over the
mountains of NM and AZ even at 8,500 feet. I mentioned this to
my flight instrudctor because he’ll get a kick out of our first-hand
relearning that flying is a sunrise to 1 PM kind of thing, lol.
Afternoon bumps left us wobbling long after landing.
Afternoon bumps left us wobbling long after landing.
Nothing particularly difficult except took a wrong taxiway at Tucson which resulted in a short lecture from ground control (shorter hops, an occasional huff on oxygen have been added to our checklist of things) and the transponder while working isn’t “squawking ident” so that’s on today's punchlist - finding an avoionics shop in Palm Springs that won't break the bank.
Stephenville, TX was unremarkable. Big Spring is about over run with prairie dogs. Las Cruces NM is really nice with a BUT: When we took off at 9:30 AM Friday or Tucson, the plane was awful damn slow gaining altitude (climb out at 300 feet per minute!) since it was warmish and the field is at almost 4,500 feet. Used a lot of runway and I made a mental note the old Beech ain’t a hot weather/high altitude plane.
Out of Tucson decending for Banning we were confronted with this huge bank of clouds, so we descended into Thermal VOR and then followed the I-10 freeway. " 1-2 Lima your traffic a Boeing 737 at 3,000 feet on final for the parallel. We'll call your turn, just follow the 10 freeway." Uh...you bet.
The closer up to PSP (palm springs) we got, the lower the
visibility until we were down to 1,600 feet before making the right base
entry to 31-R. Another dandy landing…but windy as well. Another
one of those “time to step out for a sandwich” to kill time on final since
the wind was blowing 28 gusting 32. Put our speed over the ground
about 40 MPH.
Put our speed over the ground about 40 MPH.
Taxied down to Atlantic Aviation which is a dandy place – got to sign their “Wall of Fame” after some of my better bs’ing in life. There current weekday fuel price is $7.00 per gallon but they offer a 75-cents off on weekends deal, so guess when the plane was filled up?
By late Saturday I was getting grumpy about the weather along our intended route up north. Regardless of SEA weather, Ashland Oregon looks like a roadblock for weather, and the Siskiyou moutains s are ugly for the whole week. The Coastal route is also instrument conditions in our timeline, so Alaska Airlines gets the money we would have spent on our own fuel so we will still be able to get up and meet with Clif...which is half the point of the trip (client being the other).
Credit to Elaine here for asking “Why don’t we check out the prices of last minute airfares out of Palm Springs to Seattle?”
Damn: $276 each and that's what fuel in our own plane would do - and since time is money, Mr. Ure wasted no time booking rides and then firming up the hotel at the Tacoma end.
Today's activities include client work, a trip up
to Palm Springs to put the cover on the airplane because it could rain while
we're gone, and I want to put tape over the fuel flush-mounted fuel
caps...water in the tanks is NOT something I ever want to worry about.
The reason I haven't gotten new gaskets for the gas caps yet, although it's
on my list is that these were supplied in several sizes, so got to research
the right parts. Problems of 50-year old airplanes.
Today's activities include client work, a trip up to Palm Springs to put the cover on the airplane because it could rain while we're gone, and I want to put tape over the fuel flush-mounted fuel caps...water in the tanks is NOT something I ever want to worry about. The reason I haven't gotten new gaskets for the gas caps yet, although it's on my list is that these were supplied in several sizes, so got to research the right parts. Problems of 50-year old airplanes.
Besides meetings with Clif, we'll be able to have dinner with the kids and maybe a slice of turkey with the in-laws and a visit to a wonderful chiropractor (Dr. Ken) in Tacoma, since my shoulders are still hurting from falling off the deck a couple of weeks back.
For now, our "Half Around America" trip is doing fine, but I won't be doing the driving in the known icing and instrument soup up north. Alaska Airlines was among the first to do full-on Cateroy III landings. They also hired a lady pilot I knew back in the 70's who was one of the sharpest pilots I'd met...
Don't know if I ever mentioned this, but I've been flying with a fair number of remarkable people including the late Bob Cummings - of the old "Bob Cummings Show" back in lack-and-white TV times.
A lot of people don't know it, but Cummings was a flight instructor back during WW II and I seem to recall he mentioned either Lt. Col of full Col. in the USAF Reserve. He was, and even more people don't know this, the first certified flight instructor in the United States.
He had been up in Seattle in the early 70's performing at the old Cirque Dinner Theatre and the PR outfit had called to set up an interview. One thing led to another and next thing you know, we were up in my rented Cessna Aerobat and I was getting coached by a fellow who was much more than an "actor." He was a "doer."
Other's I've talked with about their "flying hobby" have included Ernest K. Gann, Richard Bach, and even Hugh Downs. Seems to be a hobby on non-average people. Key thing, though: There are no “old and bold pilots”. You get to pick old or bold.
Economics Goes Viral
Economics Goes Viral
So, what would a major economic group look like if reduced and packaged as a computer virus? A reader sends this:
INTEREST GROUP ECONOMIST VIRUS - Divides your hard disk
into hundreds of little units, each of which does practically nothing, but
all of which claim to be the most important part of the computer.
I owe, I owe, so off to work we go....at least until this time tomorrow. Peace out.
Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
George Ure, The People's Economist
Bots: NE Power Outage
Our Favorite Tool:
Emergency Food Stores
This is a Free Financial News and economic information site updated daily except Sundays. "We ain't got no liability" - see our site disclaimer.
If you can not get to http://www.urbansurvival.com/ from your corpgov-censored workstation, or home paradigm defending ISP, please try our mirror site: http://www.independencejournal.com/ . This site is also available at www2.urbansurvival.com and www3.urbansurvival.com which may not be blocked. Hey www.urbansurvival.co works, too! And don't forget to try our SSL layer: https://www.urbansurvival.com
· Bulletins are posted as our work schedule permits and as events warrant.
· I try to publish Mon, Tue, Thu, and Fri around 8 AM Central Time/ 9 AM Eastern with 7:55 Central pretty normal. If you're easily offended by the occasional typo, then check about 8:15 Central we occasionally proofread and spell check after the first post. We've had some amusing typos in the past... for these the earliest editions are sometimes funniest.
· Financial and news judgments of the publisher are likely not "judgments" at all. Could be a dart throw, bottle spin, donkey-tail pinning, dice roll, or just reading the pine needles so it's not to be considered "advice". Come on, bucko, own your Life. Mine's complicated enough already.
· Please read and understand our disclaimer. How many times do I need to tell you READ THE DISCLAIMER! Our legal dept. sobered up one day and said to mention this several times. Have you read the disclaimer?
· All original content © 1997-2012 by George A. Ure except sources as linked. Very short extracts are occasionally used under 'fair use' but never entire articles without permission. That would be beyond 'fair use'. We're not making a business model out of other people's hard work like many sites. Instead, we're making a business model off our own keen insights, rapier wit, soothing advice, and thus, we are abjectly poor as a result.
· Copyright of all linked articles is cited under fair use as topics chosen for referencing to a specific site (long wave economics and humanistic economics, which we call "Peoplenomics" and so on) are occasionally good examples of what we're talking about. Congruence between this objective and what happens here depends of caffeine uptake and moon phase.
Our premium service, which contains more in depth reports (more frequently proofread, too) is available on a $40/year subscription basis. Details at www.peoplenomics.com/subscribe.htm.
The "web bot project" indicates a reference to the time predictive technology embodied in the "Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis Intelligence Reports" and subsequent Shape of Things to Come reports using technology pioneered and operated by Tenax Software Engineering for http://www.halfpasthuman.com/. An intro to the technology is here. Extracts, when used here, are with exclusive permission and any references on other web sites must contain a link to both this site and HalfPastHuman's main page: http://www.halfpasthuman.com/.
Site Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
© 1997-2011 Copyright Notice: The author(s) of this site requires that any links or use of material from this site include the author's name and a link to this site. All links included in our material must also be included in citations. Address questions to: email@example.com. Copyright infringers will be pursued, and please note that Fair Use requires identification of the author/source and we require a link which when you think about it is really minimal recognition of our works and the works of those who are quoted herein.
Say, did I mention you should read our site disclaimer?