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Friday March 9, 2012 7:55AM CST Visit our
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Unemployment: Level for Now The unemployment rate didn't improve in the current period, and this was in spite of the economy recording an additional 227-thousand news jobs. Here's how this somewhat unexpected outcome occurred:
Interestingly, the Labor Participation rate (which geeks like me watch as closely as the core number) did increase to 63.9% although a year ago it was at 64.2% - but maybe this is what Washington means by "change." The workforce population was only up 166,000 for the month, too, which helped a bit.
Table A-15's U-6 number did improve as expected (0.2% to the good) at 14.9 percent. The CME Birth Death Model added 91,000 of the jobs, so almost half and the biggest factors there were leisure and hospitality (23k jobs) which we might as well blame on skiing resorts, while professional and business services (30k). ---
Dow is not up, particularly, since +14 on the down
DDoGHT That's short for the Daily Dose of Greek Happy Talk - which this morning centers around 85.8% of Greek private sector creditors buying off on the restructuring proposal covering €177 billion.
But before we go ballistic with happiness, let's recall what? That means 14.2% of bondholder ain't buying in - and since that would be just over €25 billion, there's more than enough there to have the nonparticipating bondies show up with their lawyers to nix the deal, collective action clauses being a big questionmark.
And so, in grand circular reference fashion, we come back to "Does Greek Law run Greece, or do the EU Money Dudes?" We'll await developments, but the bending over of the innocent by standing public of Greece is heading for the record books as the longest running financial screw-job in recent memory.
How Bad is Sun Disease? Not bad so far, but it depends where you look. As of first looks this morning, the Internet Traffic Report was showing Asia at average packet losses around 34% while North America was at 25%. Those aren't too much changed from earlier this week values, however, so whether the Sun has a hand in this number is hard to figure.
There were a few reports from readers - a couple about bank computer outages and others about a truck stop having computer issues up in the Dallas area which caused some freeway delays as big rigs backed up. But for the most part, as Boston.com headlined it: Solar storm not nearly as bad as could have been.
While its true that bank computer systems and fuel stop computer links fail every days, nevertheless some folks who "push airplanes around" have mumbled about a slightly elevated number of notices on tower lights being out, as so forth, but again, was that effects of wind and normal clustering? Hard to sift that one out and we don't have all morning to play in the statistical street.
One this is clear, however: Sun's back with more:
So, if you were planning to take Monday off (presumably to stay home and work some mid-week DX on the lower end of the 20-meter band, you are (in Sun parlance) SOL.
Meantime, Back at the Coup 'd Etat I don't suppose you have been following the one-worlder shenanigans which broke out yesterday in Washington - which essentially relegates the US Congress to a ceremonial role - behind the UN?
Not to put too fine a point on the whole globalistas being called out, but a resolution has been introduced which would impeach president Obama for failing to get Congress' consent on Libya.
NuWar Progress Report ...has been possibly held back a bit as a former chief of the Israeli spy agency (Mossad) is urging caution and not moving ahead with an attack. Instead, he is suggesting trust in the Obama administration to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear (weapons owning) state.
BUT on the other side of things, and excuse me if I put on my marketer's hat here, but new public opinion polls suggest the Israeli public is becoming wary, and if that's the case, sooner than later becomes appealing to the war hawks, as they'd look even worse if public opinion continues to build against WW3.
Will things clarify after the markets close tonight?
Homs Battling With the West pouring (rumored) war materiel into the hands of the rebels, the Syrian army is back shelling their stronghold at Homs with another 21-dead according to reports like this one.
Science: Drink or Drug? Interesting new study is being reported that when people are given LSD as part of alcoholism recovery treatment, they seem less likely to relapse into heavy drinking.
As to why such a regimen has been overlooked - something that researchers wonder about - we can only observe that in runaway capitalism, everything has been monetized including rehab and so forth. Double the success rate of recovering from alcoholism and what happens to the repeat customer business?
You got it...it sort of dries up. Oh, sure, good for individual humans, and their families, but don'tcha know it hurts the alcohol industry and highly correlated alcohol recovery business? Remember our advice: Follow The Money - FTM.
50% Plus Fatal That's a kind of benchmark coming out of Vietnam which has had one bird flu patient survive, but another has been checked in...
Press Release of the Day From VeriSign:
And if you paid attention, you'd also know from watching the KONY2012 video (which we'll get to in the Coping section here in a sec) that there are more people on Facebook today than there were on the whole planet just 200 years ago. And that's how mass consciousness and globalrev are co developing...
More after this:
Coping: Global Rev Be Happ'nin A long-time reader has caught our often-discussed GlobalRev in his headlights.., explained more articulately than I ever could in this email:
So there you have it...well-produced and in-your-face: Welcome to GlobalRev and now you know what scares the hell out of the PowersThatWere and why the same internet that makes the game of playing the labor/wage spread between rich and poor countries so profitable, is emerging in its own way to heal the wounds being inflicted on the world without the consent of The People.
It's been said previously, but with the Net - WE ARE THE WORLD, although that's only slowly coming into focus....
It will only be a matter of time before other criminals are added to the list, failing grade politicos, crooked banksters, and an "action arm" of social justice emerges. With the untold billions we've spent on foreign aid, the solution to the Konys of this world is likely the first communiqué from the Internet mass consciousness that justice will wait no longer for governments to do what they should and what they must. This one is not delivered Anonymously.
A small movement now, yes. But those steal our future see it - and they have reason to be worried. Very, very worried. This is quite possibly our game-changer not as a single event by one by us all.
Of course, it's argued there is a counterpoint to be made...
Good (Bad) Quake Call We don't like to toot our own horn (yeah...right) but this reader note sort of captures the moment:
A check of the more-or-less Offishul Arbiters of quake size - the USGS database, shows after adjustments, calibrations, incantations, and rituals (in the purely scientific realm, we presume) the quake was downgraded to a 6.7 with map here.
Remember I told you to watch the HAARP magnetometer chain for the impact of the CME? Well check this out:
You can study times more - but to my way of thinking there's a chance of another biggy in here - and again Monday with the M-class ejecta comes along.
Oh - and a human symptomology report:
Better have the aspirin ready for Sunday/Monday, then...
Voice in News Writing I've been pondering the semi-serious business of managing a one-man news operation (assisted by my wife and two and a half cats). Been thinking about the desirability of becoming slightly schizophrenic in order to write in different "voices." For example, writing earthquake stories under the by-line James Bond (shaken, not stirred) was one that crossed my mind.
Borrowing an old radio persona from the late Robert O. Smith, I was thinking his character "Harry Nimbus" would be a good voice. It was a tribute character Robert O. developed around the Northwest weatherman Harry Wappler...before he became late. Wappler was truly the weatherman's weatherman. Smith's character would often begin his "take-offs" in a reasonable, but would then wander off into isobars and occlusion land, although the character would often as not conclude with an outlook somewhere between Ice Age and Sahara. Some things don't change.
Another news voice which would work for the Tinsel town and dirty politics stories would be the fabulous Walter Winchell whose opening line "Good evening Mr. and Mrs. America and All the Ships at Sea" was also spoofed. My favorite take-off here was the late Northwest DJ Lan Roberts, who did a fine job of "Good evening Mr. and Mrs. America and All the Fish & Chips at Sea..."
Lots of DJ's back in the day (as we slowly creep up to the point of the morning's discussion) were tremendously creative in "voice." They were entire troupes appearing in the Theater of the Mind that radio is.
Whenever I hear horror story about modern-day "shock jocks" who often float from station to station, running the poddy-mouth insults until the novelty wears off and the audience wanders off, I'm reminded of a better time - with better talent - which understood that people were funny enough as-is.
It's a sad day, indeed, that we wake up in America to find the radio wasteland, dominated by a handful of political demagogues who are piped in on the cheap to every market in America, rather than raising a fresh crop of real entertainers. Coupled with the PMSJ's (poddy-mouth shock jocks) of both radio and television pseudo-news shows, we have at last arrived at the bottom of our own ratings as a species.
The performance arts that engage the mind - column writing, radio, and television - have sadly fallen to the wayside, victims of lowest common denominator programming. I don't think there's a day goes by without me silently praying that some day, programmers will wake up and stop fighting to own market share by owning the maximum number of dumb people's attention.
But no, corpmedia can't do that since have "The Smart People's Network" would be a hard concept to sell in the board room. Which, in turn, seems to have handled the problem by systemically ignoring NPR when selling ads and such. It may be a while before my prayers are fully answered, but as of 2010, Morning Edition and All Things Considered were the number 3 and 4 top-rated radio programs.
I'm betting with mass consciousness arriving that NPR will continue to move up in the ratings over time, too. Remember what I said about the audience having its fill of the demagogues and wandering off? If you look close and pay attention, that's happening to one of them right now.
Still Chasing Our Luck We continue to accumulate stories and data for tomorrow's continuation on the Peoplenomics.com subscriber's side about luck. Getting marvelous email on point - like this one:
More "luck stories" to come Monday, but for today, up to my elbows going through the books and Kindles on specific recipes for "making" or attaining luck. Interesting stuff...
More Monday right here - or tomorrow right there at Peoplenomics...Have a great weekend and remember if you have the weekend off, I think you'd be well-advised to work as hard for yourself as your do for "the man." Which is how I always hit it and get it on weekends early while everyone else is sacked out.
Write when you break even: george@ure.net Reader Action Department: Be Sure to Visit: The UrbanSurvival Amazon store. Books, computers, software, and outdoor gear.
Now on our premium content site: www.peoplenomics.com: Chasing the Winds of Luck: Vernunftschlüsse We're off on a hunt this weekend to connect some dots on why some people are decidedly more lucky than others and to reframe some "givens" of modern society which have been brought into question by our old friend, the I-Ching inbox, which has an uncanny way of delivering just the right dose of information from related fields at precisely our moment of need to break into new realms of thinking. But, as usual, before getting into our discussion which ranges from UFOs to Zurich, to Jung, and the floor of the exchanges, we'll pick up the morning papers along the way to see what's happening outside the lab.
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Safer Computing: Swearing Off Cookies It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.
To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.
I am a high-reliability computing kind of guy - and near as I have it figured, the road to a hassle-free computing experience is (like flying an airplane) a matter of going through a proper checklist before popping onto the web:
Like anything in computers, updates are critical so before work every morning, the computer does its update ritual - Check of Maxa (5.3.02 is current) Avira, and Malware bytes.
Toss in a good bit of common sense (example: Don't open email purporting to be from UPS, IRS, the US Post Office, or anything else that even has a hint of fishy odor to it) and first thing you know, the internet's actually a useful tool.
"Live on $10,000" A Year Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Do Tell Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email. - Thanks! ---- Last week's report is always here.
Thursday March 8, 2012 The Still Cloudy Jobs Picture We note that yesterday's numbers on jobs were pretty encouraging, but it's not exactly summertime for job-seekers yet. This morning we got the Challenger job report and while it was somewhat better (by three percent, or so) there are still job cuts running their course in consumer goods and the transport sector:
Then we have the Labor Department's weekly look-see:
So, come tomorrow, don't be surprised if the unemployment headline number isn't "better" by one or two tenth's. But is it real? Depends on how the labor force numbers come in. That's because if you just keep reducing the number in the labor force (as their benefits run out and they become non job-seeking) then I guess even total unemployment eventually leads to a reported zero percent unemployment rate when everyone's bennies run out. So look at the labor participation rate and the shrinkage in the workforce to spice up the coffee (or was that Kool-Aid?)
Another Day of Rally It seems like just yesterday I was telling Peoplenomics readers: Be looking for this market to bounce about 675-70 points (33%) or 100-120 points (50%) but looks now this morning like the 61.8% bounce (~130 Dow points) is what we will have by lunchtime with the price of gold back over $1,700 - but barely so - in the pre-open. Since the market closed up 78 by the Dow yesterday, seems only fitting that the other 50-points ought to show up sometime today, but if the market doesn't listen to my patient coaching, you're on your own.
That's because we don't offering financial advice (other than for our own accounts) and the real reason to get up and report on the days happenings is a kind of morbid fascination of the sort that gets people to bull fights and NASCAR races: Would it be interesting is there was no chance of accident?
The markets are pretty well setting up for that accident, but (hate to be the cause of game delays in here) but sometime in April is the current bet, unless, of course something comes in from left-field. Or Hormuz. Purim tomorrow! --- Already, I've gotten a handful of emails about how the web bot project may have posted a spectacular "miss" - a conclusion which is entirely premature since the window of game-change is March 2-9 plus or minus 3 days, which means if by next Tuesday we don't have mass change in our sites then yes - it may be a miss.
All of which will delight detractors of the project and their masters, since we've already had an example of how detractors come a-calling - as Clif recounts from an experience this week which has both of us a bit edgy - as Clif explains in a column here.
Still, we don't mind being the guys in the suspenders and belt camp, nor do we mind the small burden of carrying an umbrella on a clear day with not a cloud in sight. For the aware observer, those few wisps of high overcast are a warning of the downpour to come and it's only a matter of time till the old bumbershoot will become prescient. So with that, we step outside to look at a small wispy cloud, or two:
Will the Real Obama? There's coverage all over the place about the so-called Obama college days video, including the part "Obama: 'Open your heads and you minds' to racialist prof" as one site puts it.
With the "Obama campaign releasing 17-minute documentary" the middle-of-the-road wonderings on the net go to the idea "...So, if this is the friendly edit, what would the unfriendly raw footage look like?" Say, there's a fine question indeed which we'll be watching closely, but not so close as to get a heart attack, if you follow. That seems to be going around...so maybe we'll just move along like good 'lil plebes to brighter topics...
Sun Dis-ease That big sunspot area has pumped the biggest solar storm in years toward Earth and so if we get a) some power disruptions, b) some communications, and if it sets off a few earthquakes -despite scientists who judge the relationship between CME's and quakes as hokum, don't be surprised.
The current warnings page from NASA is here. The HAARP magnetometer chain as of early this morning looked like most of the energy was here already, or there's another one to come - so we'll spend the day with popcorn and chai tea watching the 500 nano-Tesla range. The Solar Influences Center in Belgium reports:
Flipped Syria's deputy oil minister is joining the opposition. Yes, those are the people backed by the West and rising up against hardliner president Assad. Rising star or fool ought to be clear in coming months.
eBook Prices Ever wonder about the high prices of certain publishers of eBook? Well, seems the Justice Department has been wondering, too - so much so that they've sent a warning letter to Apple and five publishing outfits...
Coping: With the "Dead Americans" Problem Since we last coffeed on Tuesday, there's been a lot of discussion in such esteemed journals as the NY Times around when the government has the right to kill Americans without trial or due process.
Granted, I'm not an attorney as is US AG Eric Holder, but seems to me that when America was founded there wasn't any exclusion of rights mentioned by the Founders.
Yeah, yeah, on the battlefield - fair's fair, however even here, if there's a battlefield, there's supposed to be a clear Declaration of War by Congress.
It's a sad morning when I have to point this out, but sorry, without the daylight of due process in a public charging and trial, the US is going down the road of such despicable government-sponsored killing supporters as Stalin, Hitler, Pol Pot, and Vlad the Impaler.
This "trust us., we're the good guys" BS isn't Constitutional, at least in any copy I have read. To the contrary, free speech and a right to pursue happiness is there is black and white. But no death squads are mentioned.
A partisan office-Holder is NOT a disinterested party and the corpgov stance against real free speech has been deteriorating since the institution of "free speech zones" and other rights-destructive practices.
I do not defend those who would take up arms against this Great Nation. However, law governing treatment of Treason and Insurrection are pretty clear. But it's the powers and the disappearing (and maybe the Breitbart heart attack) that concern me here.
Dare I speak high obviousness? If government was truly responsive to We the People, rather than "Them Corporate Interests" would there be a need to contain - or even kill - Americans in secret? The argument that "It's legal because we say it is..." is insufficient - equivalent to "We kill because we can get away with it and it's a policy shortcut..." To me, that's morally bankrupt. We can't have a nation of law just some of the time. To put it in Pogo terms: We is, or we isn't.
People in high office seem to forget: More than half the country didn't vote for present office holders, either by (directly) voting for someone else, or (indirectly) by casting a vote with their feet - staying home and wanting no part of government above (rather than by) the People.
Worst of all, such corrupted thinking changes the flavor of the Presidential selection process. To me is stops being "Who can best harness the great energy and spirit of the American People and move us forward to a brighter future?" to instead become tainted by asking "Would I trust this guy not to have me whacked if I speak my mind and speak freely?" --- A curious linguistic hole emerges, by the way - one that deserves some serious thinking out here in VoterLand: Why is it that we don't have a specific word for government-sponsored killing?
Take guys like Hitler and Pol Pot. We assign used-up words like "madmen," "despot" and so forth.
Not that "despot" doesn't come close being a "A ruler or other person who holds absolute power, typically exercising it cruelly." But it misses an essential point: The term "despot" is distance. Not in my 'hood. It was somewhere else, and some other time.
Nope, we need a better bitter, as it were. I like the term "killercrat" which would be a democratically elected killer, but this would miss Stalin (commukiller), Hitler who was more of a (haplokiller), or Pol Pot who might be a (megalokiller).
As I got to the polls here in May, as much to vote against born-again disgraced house speaker, as anything else, I'll be mindful to try and pull the lever for whoever would make the "most trusted killer" to hold office. --- Still, it's my duty as an American to offer solutions to the problems I inconveniently mention and this whole debate is easily solved by these simple steps:
1. Have Congress pass a law stripping those who join groups which advocate taking up arms against America of their citizenship. Has to be done in open court, however.
2. Once stripped of their citizenship, such persons become non-grata and have a free ticket anywhere in the world that will take them.
3. Persons so stripped of citizenship will be subject to life in prison if they return, no chance of parole.
3. Once stripped of citizenship and dumped in a foreign land, shit happens. --- We do not, however, have to kill Americans. Nor is that provided for in our Founding documents except for treason and sedition. That's abhorrent to sensible people. Charging and trying, however is provided for.
Thus, by simply go through some due process in the bright light of day, each of us is not made to be complicit a killercrat.
I'll end with a question deserving of great study: Is it that there is some hidden rite - some nefarious and pervert energy in play here - promoting this paranoid and animalistic behavior?
Is it just wildly possible that the argument is construed? And to what end? Why, to make us forget we are a great and moral people and above all else a just people.
I don't know how well-read you are, but I can sure think of some enemies of America in their dark cabals who would have no qualms about using the specious "killing Americans' argument" to take us down; yet another notch.
"And toward what end?" you're wondering. It's obvious isn't it? Once the public approves of killing Americans (and the mass media stampede is on as the Holder stories repeat) then the blood of those killed is not on the hands of the one issuing the orders, but instead on the hands of all who were complicit. And our moral high ground is thereby eroded much to our enemy's delight.
I think in software engineering the term is "design pattern."
Reader's Writes Here's a good one:
Ask me in...oh...December, or so.
Luck Stories While we continue to pull together formulations that seem to increase "luck" (Saturday for Peoplenomics readers) we've gotten some darned interesting feedback:
More of these Luck stories and anecdotes tomorrow. Contrary to what our typing skills would suggested, there is "some assembly required" to put a column together.
Around the Ranch: Rites of Spring The biggest deal around here is that on Wednesday we came to terms with our own mortality (again) by having our wills done. Not particularly difficult, nor complicated, but one the way back I got in touch with the "inner child" who has been screaming for 63-years that to make a Will out is not necessary since I'm going to live forever. Well, no, I'm getting more accepting of that - but it makes the value of each day even higher, so no time to lose. --- We had rain showers through the area this morning - and I've got to find time to get the plane down to Mark the Mechanic for its spring tune-up and oil change - plus the VG installation. One of the plane's GPSs is down - so waiting on that, winds aloft between KPSN and KDKR where Mark's shop is were running 40-kinots most of yesterday, which means it would have been cheaper to disassemble and ship the plane down to him in pieces rather than buy the fuel...well, not quite, but much going on... --- My friend Manfred called from Maxa Research Labs in Germany to tell me they are having a spring sale and that the price for their find product is (on sale) for $29.95 USD. Cookie Manager has so far (since the update to 5.3.0.2mx) has kept 202,128 cookies off my computer and 82,122 web bugs (tracking stuff I don't want) off the machine.
Should mention the FBI is holding off on the DNSChanger case server change out four more months...a good thing.
Well, looks like that's where we end this morning. More luck cases, extra strong coffee and a brighter outlook in tomorrow's report...since it will be Friday.
Wednesday March 7, 2012 Wednesday Reader Notes Last Minute Details With the end of "building tension" likely going on around us right now, we have a short (but very important) laundry list of items on this morning's agenda. We'll begin with the morning's productivity numbers, then look at the Dow which should bounce either 66 or 100-130 points shortly after the open in a predictable "dead cat bounce" but then we'll slide right into the discussion of the trend charting technique I showed you a couple of weeks back and consider what that portends for the future. After that, a smorgasbord of the usual monkeymind crap (productivity numbers, consumer debt this afternoon) and then we'll wind up with additional action-items including prepping for the DNS_Changer virus and a few important IP addresses to keep in touch with what's going on with my sites. Busy morning? Yes, and decidedly "fluff-free." It's almost like real work, except we fired the PC police and we can be straight with one-another about where all this heads...
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Non-subscribers will want to catch the story about water purifier/ionizers and so on that I told you about a while back - and to which several Urban readers gave input about their specific results. Thats at the Strategic Living website over here.
Around the Ranch: first time every I've had to tell someone on a Skpe call "Can I get back to you? I need to go put out a fire..." and really meant it: High winds kicked up those brush pile leftovers when 25-knot winds came through here on Tuesday and not the kind of thing to let get away from you...
Anyway, more tomorrow. enjoy the jobs and productivity-fueled rally today and have aspirin ready for the hangover when... and we'll gather round Mr. Coffee same time tomorrow...
Tuesday March 6, 2012 Rollover Week, II We are seeing gold hammered this morning, and although our linkage between gold and the Dow isn't perfect, if you've been popping the ginko pills for your memory, you may recall the alchemical view that: "If gold goes down, the dollar goes up, ergo, it takes less dollars to buy the Dow, so the Dow should fall." Futures prices seem to hint down 90-100 at the open. Though for "rollover" this is really just foreplay.
The real "line in the sand" Robin Landry and others tell me is way down around 1,313 to 1,300 on the S&P - and while that's a good ways down, a move below that would mean that from 2007/2008 down into 2009 would be wave one down, the bounce from 2009 to now a wave 2 and the BIG THREE DOWN could take out the 6,627 Dow and maybe spike down to Dow 4,400 or so. Naturally, this is not advice, just numbers to watch as the pucker factor comes along later in the week possibly.
When I looked earlier, the Dollar was up vis-à-vis the Euro (like that's a surprise, huh?) and that drove down gold which was down as much as $21 earlier. And on places like TraderTalk you can find indicators like this one which are getting around to what we've been pointing as in the charts over at Peoplenomics: Might be time to exit to government bonds about now, although this is not investment advice.
For this morning's report (posted early because I woke up early) we are content noticing that Greece didn't have a bankruptcy since the International Swaps and Derivatives Association has proclaimed the equivalent of "Nothing Happened!" saying "ISDA EMEA Determinations Committee: Credit Event Has Not Occurred with Respect to Recent Questions on The Hellenic Republic Restructuring."
Needless to say, this leaves me scratching that solar panel on my head wondering "WTF? Greece almost brings down the world and nothing happened?" Well, if that's the case, how come there are still headlines this morning that "Greece and growth fears send shares, euro down"?
I was looking at Matt Taibbi's Rolling Stone recent story "Bank of America in Trouble?" and wondering (as I have been for days now) whether financial collapse is preferable to the one-time flash-bang ending. I think it is, but misery comes with either.
Fear, Loathing and Hints-in-Your-Face Dept. Seems that friends in high places will not be paying off for windy city residents. The plans for the G8 to meet in Chicago has been moved to Camp David because of reported protest concerns.
The question which I notice the MSM hasn't been asking is this: Since the G8 is not under May 20-21 and since things are pretty calm right now, what's going to hit the big fan (so to speak) between now and then that there would be some kind of problem for a few of the good 'ol boyz to hold a windy city hoe down?
Say, wouldn't be that much-worried economic collapse, now, would it? Sure seems strange - gotta wonder if hizzoner Rahm will be invited to the CD meet?
Only Question is When
Gas Prices Down But only slightly in the Trip A national fuel price report here. $4.04 for premium at the moment, but a slight improvement from yesterday - fraction of a cent's worth. I figure the Dow down 100 points ought to move oil down 50¢ to a buck - so long as the lid's on the Middle East.
Not a "Planet Killer" But.... There's this asteroid due to come close enough to earth in 2013 that a hit may be possible leaving the governments of the world a major "Hmmmm...what to do?" problem to solve. Goes by the name of 2012 DA14.
How big a mess is does this have the potential for? Well, let me see: The handy-dandy Purdue/Imperial College asteroid impact calculator is here. A square on 90 degree hit would be a bit messy, but down at a 45 degree angle looks like something in the 30-megaton equivalent range....lots of variables to tweak on.
Oil Tanker Troubles A Greek tanker captain was found dead and his ship sunk with 10-crew members dead. Wonder where that oil was from and who the ship is registered to? That pencils out to somewhere between 500,000 and 600,000 gallons of crude...
Secrets Revealed Dept. Osama: Not with the Crabs? Yee gads! What's this? A report that Osama bin Laden was not buried at sea and was instead flown to the US for who knows what reasons. But that's the allegation in a Wikileaks leaked email from Stratfor email being reported here. --- Side bets on Geronimo's skull and secret societies would be entirely unfounded, of course. But this is a damn/damning turn of events...Which, if it gets traction in the M.E. could turn into a PR nightmare for the purple-finger crusader's side, if'n I read this right...
Flu WHO We've been keeping half an eye on the H5N1 reports popping up in places like Vietnam. Now comes worth that Vietnam has imported 7-million doses of bird flu vaccine.
Meantime WHO figures show 9 people have died so far this year from H5N1 which would make the annualized run rate stack up like this...
File-Sharing Battles On But it's not going well for music fans who might want to share a file (or 500) with friends, since a UK court has just sided with the music industry...so slowly but surely, file-sharing's days are limited...so time to back up them .MP3 files. Not telling how long before the music Gestapo starts to snoop those online backup services, too...you never know how deep things will go.
Why, I never thought the Texas Guard would be called out to order folks around at a kite flying festival, either, which just shows to go you something or other...so my understand of how the boots work is obviously deficient.
Ham Radio Ops: Terrorists??? Say, speaking of which, as an Amateur Extra Class ham, next time I go to the store to buy ham radio gear, guess I have to mind my peas and cues since the FBI's got a new anti-terrorizm flyer to be on the lookout for "Potential Indicators of Terrorist Activities Related to Electronic Stores" and the telltales might include:
In short, anything that's fun to play with. Good grief! Gosh wonder if being a card-carrying ARES member will work against me, too? And a pilot....and sometimes with a beard and sometimes without....Gitmo here I come. --- I don't know whether to say FMTT or Lord love a duck...just whistle that old Buffalo Springfield song "....into your heart it will creep..." Everybody look what's going down...
This is "Super Tuesday" Corporate bidding festival mostly.
Trouble for an Icon If you drink one-thousand bottles of Coke per day, you might be comforted to know that the "FDA skeptical [that a] chemical in sodas harmful to consumers." --- Still, one might recall the FDA was out to regulatory lunch when the left-handed sugars (high fructose corn syrup) were approved for human consumption which some have linked to various diseases...so whether the FDA's judgment hasn't been (how to I say this politely?) impaired by corporate interests is a matter subject to debate. (But not much...)
Coping: Is there "Luck?" While we warily wait to see what the "game-changer" is that we're supposed to see over the period between now and Friday, although with the usual +/- three days of error, my thinking is running increasingly toward a major bank failure and the start of economic collapse since as of 4:59 PM Friday we should be into more or less permanent release language, at least into summer of this year. Still we need to be clear: Release language is not necessarily correlated to declining markets, although the price of gold is down markedly again, and in Elliott terms seems like it could be heading for the uncomfortable area around $1,425, since the initial decline from it's highs would be an A or 1 down under Elliott, the recent bounce would be the B or 2 under Elliott and it is possible ( though this is not a recommendation) that we could be in a C or 3 down just starting.
When I looked earlier, oil was down to $106 and may possibly trade lower today, although we hear the Vinson is back into the Hormuz area shortly, which is [linguistically] a concern as we've often mentioned because it is so close to the root "Vincent" and "Vicenza" - but who knows how the mass consciousness speaks?
So we rely on luck and actually, I've been studying that quite closely for the past couple of weeks. Would, for example, an outbreak of financial panic be a lucky (as in good) thing? Well, given it as an alternative to a false flag attack on a US capital ship, escalation into a nuclear exchange with Russia and/or China, yes, you bet, I'd ,take meltdown and whatever else is behind curtain #1. --- Readers have begun to weigh in on the question of luck: One suggesting the movie "Intacto" although as I've suggested many times, "The Adjustment Bureau" seems amazingly close to how reality works now and then.
Good reading by the sound of it, but with time speeding up (or seeming to) who has time for long books?
As you'd expect, we're getting a good collection of luck stories - good and bad - and here's a peach of one for you to consider:
On the other hand, we also got the expect deniers of luck emails, too. Here's a very articulate expression of "It's all just odds...
Lots of readers agree, though, that luck is something special and the way it happens seems now and then to be influenced by a number of factors...
Another offered this view:
There are some other good stories, too...but let's save them for Thursday's report and for Peoplenomics.com subscribers Saturday's report will run through a short summary of all the "mechanical/physical" ideas that I've been able to come up with as well as that "setting up an antenna for luck" that I tried with some ($450) success this weekend.
Now, if the whole world can be "lucky" through the next couple of weeks, why that'd be just fine with me!
Oh...also in Thursday's report: Some deep thinkers have some comment on the "new kind of reality is emerging from the mass consciousness awakening on the internet" which is also holding our attention. Imagine a world where there's so much connectivity that evil-doing becomes impossible due to global mass consciousness pressure...wow, some concept, huh?
Around the Ranch: Travel Planning Another www.columnists.com convention is coming up in May and I booked the hotel and did registration for it Monday. I continue to follow my "plan for the worst: yet "hope to live the best" way of doing things which some folks have a hard time following. --- Did I ever mention the time I was flying from Miami to Panama City, Panama on an L-1011 and we hit clear air turbulence southwest of Cuba? The aircraft dropped a good 500 feet, and when the freefall was over, there were broken dishes all over the cabin (this was back in the mid 80's when airlines served real meals...
Anyway, to make a long story longer with spilled food and a few sprains and one broken arm among passengers, we continued our flight into Panama City. I happened to be flying with my friend and then airline president, a fellow who had been Sr. VP at Air Florida and I was working down in the Cayman Islands. We were on our way to Lima to work on a charter arrangement with one of Peru's airlines which was not being allowed to fly into the US in a fi8fth freedoms rights dispute.
So my friend orders us two scotches each which came promptly since we were up at the front of the plane in first class. As we still (somewhat shaken by events of the past few minutes) slugged them down he said the words I'll never forget.
"When your time's up...it's UP. And there's not going to be a damn thing you can do about it..." That was one of the finest observations of life ever and I frequently (and fondly) remember my Cuban-American colleague's sharing that and other bits of wisdom from his upbringing. Another one that stuck with me was "Never count your money in front of the poor." --- Going to Macon Georgia, and then up to visit friends in central Virginia if they're about, and then up to see Howard Hill in Connecticut is shaping up for mid-May as our next romp about the country. Between now and then, we may have to pop over to Phoenix, depending on a software team's performance for a client. And then this summer up to the Pacific Northwest in July, since Gaye and I have a book going which arises from our shared website/online magazine www.strategic-living.net.
If this all sounds like I don't think the web bot project's outlook for massive change is coming, you've not been paying attention. We've done just about all the prepping we can reasonably do. And if we make it through this period, we don't intend living under a rock. And besides, as we made the decision to travel last weekend, as my airline president friend said: When your time is up, it's up, and nothing is going to delay that no matter. But, if your time isn't up, you can live fast and loose...since today won't be the day.
At some point, that day is going to show up. But only a fool would let that undeniable, unassailable fact ruin today.
Yukon gold-rush era poet Robert Service summed up the attitude well in a very short poem; one of the few that ever seemed to hold lasting value to me:
So we fly and we gamble, we party and play, it's the wild romps of freedom that season the day.
The news will come badly, the politics tarred, but the bravest among us aim to live life un-marred. == Seems I ought to end with a sign, just so as not to sound so damn serious:
Why, just setting this down in electrons make me aware: I'm so old I remember when America had a kick-ass attitude and gumption. But I got another "Get out of grave" card that turned up this morning.
Monday March 5, 2012 Is this "Panic Week?" Elaine and I went up to Oklahoma this weekend to chat with Robin Landry about his outlook for markets and likely the most interesting part was that later on this week (7th through 9th) we could see things get really interesting as cycle turns come due.
But already, readers are getting into the spirit of things with one reader who offers:
Maybe...or maybe not. The last-hour rally in the market Friday looks to start eroding again this morning with the Dow futures down 33 when I looked. Gold was down earlier, while oil is about flat. Except for some minor numbers, the week is off to a boring (does it have to be Monday again?) kind of start.
But come mid-week, we figure on building excitement. Wednesday there's productivity numbers in the morning and Fed consumer debt/noose data in the afternoon. Weekly employment readers can't compare to the ADP data (wed) or the Challenger numbers on Thursday, but the biggy will be Friday's unemployment report which though likely to stay stable will also likely show a continuation of the shrinking workforce phenomena.
As we've explained before, you can't keep shrinking the size of the workforce and reporting a low unemployment number doesn't end happily, though we continue watching to see who yells "Fire!" in this particular crowded theater.
Of course the other thing to keep an eye on is that global growth is imploding (look surprised, right?) and as a result this means that earnings are likely to be flat or even down on an inflation-adjusted basis since the Fed does show M2 up 9.8% over the past year.
Say, you don't suppose the beat-down in gold could mean a run down to the $1,425 level, or so, and a collapse of the markets to boot? Tell me it ain't so! The Baltic Dry Index is nearing 800, so maybe not... Still, all in all, the market has that 1990-1991 kind of feel to it. If prospects dim further we might need a war to pull us out of it.
NK Did What? Lots of buzz on the net - particularly in Israeli media - that North Korea tested a nuke in 2010 for Iran.
All kinds of reasonable speculation is possible: Knowing that it would leak, could this be why NK has just started to warm up to the West? But wait! What about the chance this is another one of those "Niger uranium" type disinfo stories?
The Nuke Club Speaking of which, our Winnipeg news analyst offers this:
Yep...and it all takes on a serious patina now that Pakistan is sinking toward more radical Islam and India/Kashmir has the potential to "go hot" any old time.
Putin Us On... Big demonstrations are expected in Russia today as Vlad Putin has won a third term in office. To be sure, the official nose/vote count is like 64% Putin, but then again, seems people of Russia don't trust the workings of politics when a long-time KGB'er like Putin is at the helm. And he's made lots of promises which some anlysts figure could sow economic problems ahead.
One of our deep-thinking, strategic outlook contributors put it this way:
With Putin's recent support of Syria and anti-West remarks, we're waiting for his "kinder, gentler" KGB'er patina to wear off as Russians may be fed up with the emergency political monarchy that seems now firmly entrenched.
Buying Us Newt Seeing as we were traveling this weekend, I got an earful of Newt Gingrich ads which were tagged not paid for by a political party. So who is this Daddy Warbucks behind this (or brothers Warbucks) and why are they shoving Newt down everyone's throat with the mega-buck radio campaign???
Did I, or did I not tell you we would be force-fed this disgraced fellow, like it or not. Elections being hijacked by Big Money near as I can figure it.
If Newt does "surprisingly well" on Super Tuesday...Bought!
Kinder, Gentler Bird Flu Speaking of kinder, gentler...and besides keeping a nervous eye on how much bird flu research will be published, we've also been watching outbreaks in China and Egypt recently. However, curiously the first floe that has hit Taiwan is "not contagious among humans" says a health official there. Wonder how the word Yet is spelled in Chinese? Oh, yes: 但
X Marks the Sun Although we're not expecting the tippy-top peak of solar activity until sometime late spring to summertime of 2013, nevertheless this little blurb from the solar data center in Belgium caught our attention...
Let's see: March 7-8th, huh? My the old "energies hit Earth" or "Expando Planet" model that would set up major earthquake expectations for around the 8-10th kind of timeframe... --- 6.1 down in Argentina this morning. --- Speaking of quakes and such, our erstwhile reader who runs the monthly update on global earthquake activity (going back to 1973) sent along this note of note:
Putting on my "Mr. Spreadsheet hat" and pushing the trendline (5th order, polynomial) of the data out 36 months we would expect monthly quakes of 7.0 or larger magnitude to be running about 3.8 quakes per month, while applying the same forecast to the 3.0 shakers has them virtually disappearing in about 30-months.
Which is hardly reassuring, if you think about it, since the disappearance of small quakes would mean the crust of Earth is getting "locked up" and when this happens you can start seriously wondering about megaquakes, crustal shift, planet wobble and mega volcanoes putting the lights out for billions. Or, does that get underway a few X-class flares from now? There's always something to worry about, isn't there?
Why, next thing you know Planet X/Niburu will show up and.....
Data Gap As long as we've got the mental telescope dialed in on the future, seeing into the "data gap" of Clif's forecasts is getting really interesting.
Last week, for example, there was an internet outage that impacted the Pentagon, and there was one over the weekend which took out a large chunk of eastern African countries. Was a cable cut...again? Or, does this hint at large undersea topographic changes due to the quakes and growing of the East African Rift? I'll put a dime on the latter and let the expando planet bet ride...
Question is: How much quaking would be it taking to make the net stop shaking? (Horrible writing, but we're saving the A material for later in the week...) --- Australian's ISP Dodo took a PR hit for the big outage down under recently.
Signs of the Times Copper thieves have stolen wiring out at the approach lights at the Modesto (CA) airport. --- New Electrics at the heart of the "New Energy Movement" which is getting noticed. --- For the truly paranoid, go read up on Main Core...the computer system you don't get to hear about.
And don't forget to run complete system scans so you don't lose connectivity to the net this week with the FBI plans its server changes... And did you see how a lot of Anonymous supporters are finding themselves victims of a Trojan Horse attack (Zeus variant)?
Coping: Mass Conscious Arriving We've been discussing (admittedly on a hit and miss basis) the idea that there's a global mass consciousness awakening/emerging right here on the internet. So for your further ponderings, here's something else to toss into your thinkery: A 63-minute video (categorized as edu-tainment/documentary)...x-out the pop ups before you play...
So what comes into focus (better than I could put into words) is this whole idea of the internet becoming something of a Super Self for the whole world.
Unfortunately, that's problematic. What happens if the global self turns out to be crazy? I mean it is possible that when all of humans are averaged we're a bit bonkers, isn't it? --- In the weekend's Peoplenomics report on "luck" we ended by asking an interesting rhetorical question: Is is possible that the reason we don't all see the wind that drives luck around, or for that matter, we don't seem to sense auras, the stream, and so forth....well, could that all be because our selections of words and thought tools are not quite exactly right - and might those things cause us to miss a lot of what's obvious?
I mention this because the internet's emergent mass consciousness may actually point in a particular direction toward refining how we use words and symbols such as math as a way of getting a little closer to the Larger Truth which Scully assures us is out there, somewhere.
Not like any language is perfect. and in fact mathematics as the West thinks it, is founded on the notion of objects and counting, instead of sets, unions, intersections of unions (vesicas) and so forth. Maybe it's not a big error in thinking - we do manage to fly and build nukes and such, but is it a big enough blind spot to keep us from rising to greater heights? A reader comment very much on point:
No waste of time, at all! It's that socially imposed thinking stuff that likely keeps us all from being more god-like in our thinking. I wonder if minds like Tesla or Leedskalnin somehow managed to break into that "rarer realm" of right thinking that was somehow better fitted to seeing the world a bit more clearly than the rest of us.
If you want a little something to work on when the boss ain't looking today, I'd table this as a worthy exercise. We already know from working with Clif's linguistic project that how humans think (and act) is at least some x number of degrees out of phase with the larger reality. Problem comes down to "How to solve for x?"
Which is why I'm focused for now on the matter of "luck" since if there's to be any ripping of the veil between this realm and another, the fabric should wear thin along a particular seam.,..and I'm guessing that between statistical probabilities and real-world experiences is as good a place as any to go mining.
Which gets me (a big long-windedly) into our next topic...
Personal Encounters with Luck As I mentioned earlier, Elaine and I went flying this weekend...us to Shawnee, OK to spend some time with Robin (and Mrs.) Landry. Besides having a chance to compare notes on the markets, and such, the trip gave me a chance to check out some of the things I'd written earlier in the week since I'm doing a two-part report for Peoplenomics readers on luck.
There were two items of note in the luck department. One was, as we were sitting at the adult beverage place at Firelake Casino, noticing the local news doing a stand-up about a plane crash which claimed one life just on the other side of Oklahoma City from us.
It was one of those "shiver up the spine" moments, since we'd flown in about two hours after the crash and yes, due to the storms which had been through the area last week, and with strong winds, there was light to moderate turbulence from the Red River north. 25 to 30 knot headwinds... It all served to remind me that airplanes can be dangerous if you don't keep an eye on them....and to always follow hunches and feelings. That was, near as I could tell, Good Luck Event #1.
Then, after the refreshments, since we'd had a pretty good-sized lunch, we decided to try out some of the luck theories I'd started covering in Saturday's Peoplenomics report. I won't go into the how and details here, but by the time our dinner reservations came up, I was $360 ahead for the night.
A hour, or so later, after a marvelous dinner, I decided to win just a bit more - and walked out with $450...which mostly paid for the weekend, at least the avgas and hotel.
But what was even more important, all this research & reading I'd been doing on "luck" was starting to come into focus, so this coming weekend on the Peoplenomics side, I'll review some of the observations others have made on luck, how it flows, and most importantly: How some people are able to avail themselves of "luck" while others can't or won't.
Since this is ongoing research, please feel free to send in luck stories which we can kick around right here...as people like to hear about them...and don't be too surprised if I send back some questions since I'm trying to figure out what about the luck stuff is real and what is not. Yes, I know the odds and so forth, but as of this morning I've got $450 reasons to think some aspects of luck are learnable and may offer some insights into how the world really works.
Health Notes A reader sent in a link to a site that lists the vitamin deficiencies that come with various medications your doc may prescribe for you. Interesting stuff to read up on. This is not medical advice, just a resource to be noticed...
Slow Weather Clean-up The Midwest isn't the only place which will be cleaning up from Ma Nature's onslaughts:
Duly noted, Tums at the ready...
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
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