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Friday April 6,
2012 07:55 AM CST Visit our
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An UrbanSurvival Exclusive Solar Kill Shot in December? Killshot or Pole Shift? We depart, momentarily, from our usual focus on longwave economics (and the evolution of the Second Depression despite the joys of the latest Jobs report from the government which we will get to in a second) to focus on the latest work from 2012 researcher Patrick Geryl who has given UrbanSurvival exclusive permission (link back required) to report the latest research into the possibility of a large solar event in December of this year. We begin with this note from Patrick:
He was kind enough to extract the highlights of a 36-page report (with diagrams) that he will be posting to his website www.howtosurvive2012.com next week...but you need to visit the site well before then, since the whole 2012 field is hugely complex and there is much to read, much to ponder...and Patrick's research stands head and shoulders above most of what's out there on the net.
Now, before we get into Patrick's research, we need to explore the idea that since we had the Carrington Event of 1859, we may be able to make some inferences by study of planet positions in that period to see if something similar is coming up. As you may know, we're in the ramp up to the peak of the present solar cycle which will be in peak from late this year into early 2013.
Cycle 24 is expecting (picking up from the NASA site) "...Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 61 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. "
Key point going into the details from Patrick: Small Solar Cycles MAY be correlated to large EMP-like coronal mass ejections (CME's) suggests Geryl's work. And armed with this background we're pleased to share his highlights:
I'm still digesting this, and like you, I'll be visiting Patrick's website for more reading....and remember, next week the whole report (much more detailed, pictures, and so forth will be up.
We start with this story, rather than the jobs report this morning (next) because there is an increasing number of indicators that just keep pointing at the period from 2012 into mid 2013 as a very rocky time.
You might want to ponder "Ure's Axiom" which sort of fell out of Clif's ground-breaking work at www.halfpasthuman.com that suggests that the further ahead of a major event, the larger the event may be when it gets here.
Take that over to Google and search "solar kill shot" and you'll be up to your ears in remote viewer reports, from highly credible people like Major Ed Dames, who see "IT", but like with predictive linguistics, the "when" is often slippery.
And that's where Geryl's work (short summary here, and full details coming on Patrick's site) is so important: It's suggests a when and it points to historically conformable details.
The good news, such as it is, is that the December of this year will be when the most direct alignment with the Sun will be over the southern hemisphere.
Why am I so uncomfortable realizing that all those references from Clif's predictive linguistic "north of 40" references may mean something very serious this coming fall into winter?
We now return you to the previously scheduled, blah, blah, blah distractions to keep you from deeply considering some of the possibilities stated herein. Might need more than tanning butter, though. Even a few degrees of axis shift, or a 40% reduction in global power resources pencils between deadly and horrific.
And not long after Patrick's note and research? The I-Ching inbox pops up with this:
Gotta take this as hint from Universe to keep an eye on this one.
Digesting the Jobs Report From the Labor Department this morning:
Our usual criticisms can be summarized this way: The CES Birth/Death Model offers 90,000 jobs were statistically inferred into the mix this month... including 18,000 in construction and 38-thousand in hospitality, which given the travel figures makes me wonder. And then, there's the alternative measures of labor underutilization which we call the "PhDs flipping burgers Index" (More politely, Table A-15, U-6) which is running 14.5% for March, so apparently (being better than the 14.9% in February) someone got promoted from the deep-fryer position to grill cook. --- Speaking of jobs, a reader of ours who is a serious HR dude sent this in response to my depiction of firings slowing down:
This weekend in our www.peoplenomics.com report, we'll tie a coming technology change to what could potentially amount of millions of additional job losses.
So what we see at the macro level is a huge race between the forces of manufacturing automation on the one hand and job creation on the other. And since jobs have long term capital requirements, and those pesky working want (unlike machines) to just work their 8-hour shifts and weekends off, the elite factory owners make simple - tax incentivized decisions - to replace people with machines. My, must to tough to be at the top, huh? More machines, faster depreciation, robots and automation...
I've said it before, but it bears often repeating: When workplace efficiency improved (in the government's productivity numbers) it is not a good thing since 100% efficiency would spell NO WORKERS.
Fed Watching Yes, there are things going on at the Fed besides the free-money festival around FOMC meetings. Take Thursday, for example (please): Latest three-months annualized Fed M1 number from Thursday's data is 11.5% and for M2 7.9%. The year-on-year change is pretty significant: 18.2% more money sloshing around M1 and 9.9% more sloshing around M2.
Still, there's enough crap around the neck (foreclosures pending and such) to drag down M3 - the broadest measure of money which the Fed decided to hide as revealing a bit much back in the Greenspan days - is reconstructing to about 4.7-4.9% by the look of the chart at Now and Futures.
Which, we keep explaining, is why Social Security is in decline - because the government loans money out to federal agencies which pay less than 2% which in a real-world of 4.7% monetary inflation just means We the People are getting screwed slowly....but isn't that supposed to be more enjoyable?
Saving Deface Interesting story making the rounds about how Anonymous has purportedly defaced some Chinese websites.
Since things are never "as they seem" we have to wonder how many US intel and .mil types kinda helped things along...the more money and resource China can be forced to spend on computing, the less for other kinds of war-making goods.
Wonder if the Chinese deal summarily with spammers?
March to War Navy site shows the Enterprise is now with the 5th Fleet. Rug weavers take note. Hmmm...three carriers in the 5th Fleet...just getting together for caoffee, you think?
One-Upping Pink Slime Oh you, I can hardly wait for the fast-food industry to latch onto this one: Scientists in Japan have figured out how to make a meat-substitute from that stuff you flush.
It's all part of a sly bit of wryrony from Universe. How many fast-foot critics have said "Fast food tastes like sh*t"? Since the global mass consciousness co-creates Universe, the lil archetype has now surfaces. A firm reminder to be most auspicious about what we think and what we say, because it does have a way of coming true. NSS.
More after this...
Coping: With Low-Effort Thinking My friend Howard Hill (www.mindonmoney.wordpress.com) sent me a fascinating article to ponder in a recent "Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin." In it, the authors (four of them) study the correlation between (among other things) how much alcohol people drink and how they behave politically:
In my normal (happy-go-lucky) way, my first reaction was that this may be evidence that people really are driven to drink by politics. But a more serious review (it was only 14-pages) had my mind racing in other directions, but the main thing I come back to is that human intellectual development may be parallel to development of any other muscle-set or physical trait in a species.
What if, supposing, in ancient times there was no need to develop anything less than low-effort thought? Such a world might have had abundant food, a reasonable number of mating candidates wandering around...so who needs to think? Government hadn't been invented and so forth.
Thus, when people drink a lot, maybe they "fall back" into the earlier-developed portions of brain (reptilian?) and it's there that in reptile/snake-charming fashion, they become susceptible to "simple answers" and thus, it could account for the relationship described.
I stopped short of plugging in all of the possible extensibilities to
this, but clearly there may some further ponders down other "low-effort
thinking" avenues including religious fundamentalism. Just so as not
to offend, I won't do anything other than mention this, but low-effort
thought may be, to some extent a DNA hard-coding of a genetic predisposition
into some folks and it dovetails rather tidily with other work which, though
not using the "low-effort thought" term specifically, does kinda hint that
way. As in, for example "The God Virus: How religion infects our lives and culture
Could it be that some people (I'm starting at the man in the mirror here) are driven to question everything by something in their genetic make-up? Seems to be a mountain body of evidence in that direction, meaning - and this gets pretty deep - the amount of actual "free will" people have may be genetically limited by predispositions to bounded (and in present context "low-effort) concepts.
Date Search, Please Had a reader or two this week send me emails just discovering this story: "Former White House Speechwriter Suggests Military Coup Could Oust Obama."
The problem with this one is not that the speechwriter doesn't have every right to propose whatever ideas he's got, but that this is the kind of thing that keeps the rabid-right-radio types going: The original article appeared in 2009.
So why, might you ask, are people recirculating it now? Politics, dear reader, politics. We're in that dangerous time when the "Emphasize what divides us business model is trotted out" and money is made hand-over-fist by the MainStreamMedia by keeping the public divides on oh, so many issues, that people will then get worked up and send lots of money to political parties, which will turn around and buy scads of advertising time from the MSM.
You do see how most political coverage is really a feathering of the nest of the MSM, right? A check of Google shows this is taking off all over again...and yes, it could be labeled political bullshit, or worse, inciting insurrection. But we just had the low-effort thought conversation, didn't we? --- What I should do (but won't because it's too early) is to draw a graphic which shows how as low-effort thought increases, the ability of an increasing complex world to keep working deteriorates until, at Ure's precipice, low-effort though becomes so wide-spread that running a high-effort world fails, and we sink into global collapse on a seldom seen scale.
The scale those long dead civilizations sank into. I keep thinking Elaine and I need to go wander Chaco Canyon this year. Maybe they left a note like "Beware simple answers!"
Friday at the WuJo As I write this, it's 6:32 AM local time...a time which came up in a dream last night. Since nothing particularly significant seems to be occurring, I have written the numbers down and I will buy an assortment of lotto numbers today.
Funny how dreams pop up with weird things like numbers, now and then, though. --- The WuJo events are alive and well as this reader reports:
No idea...kids learning to hack the remotes on cars? Can't be that many codes out there, can there be?
Reader's Writes Speaking of mentally active a reader sent in this More code message about...well, you'll see...
All I can say is ...- . .-. -.-- ..-. ..- -. -. -.-- v e r y f u n n y
A none-too-subtle ref to our coverage of Google Tap, I see.
If you do take the time to send in More, please double or triple-space letters and quadruple space words. Gee, if enough people did this...
Gotta wonder if someone, somewhere in the basement of NSA wonders about multiply-encrypted messages like embedding a message in Morse using steganography to bury the code in a picture...or, even simpler, sending Word docs back and forth, but converting them to a nonsensical (not easily machine readable) code like the TrueType font WingDings coupled with an ASCII-offsetter...Oh my head hurts....
This might explain why coffee consumption in intelligence outfits is high...
Write when you break even: george@ure.net Of Interest to Readers: Be Sure to Visit: The UrbanSurvival Amazon store. Books, computers, software, and outdoor gear. You're going to buy things on Amazon, so use this handy portal...
Now on our premium content site: www.peoplenomics.com: Trouble Wave Trayvon Martin is not the only problem to crop up in America in recent weeks, although certainly one of the most visible. Yet there is other evidence becoming visible of "sand in the gearbox" that could indeed lead coming months to be the "summer from hell." In addition to unveiling some of theses none-too-cheery prospects, which could lead in to a "summer of hell" being this year, we'll take our usual look at the news will set a lot of this into perspective, so more coffee and seat belts, please.
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Safer Computing: Swearing Off Cookies It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.
To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.
I am a high-reliability computing kind of guy - and near as I have it figured, the road to a hassle-free computing experience is (like flying an airplane) a matter of going through a proper checklist before popping onto the web:
Like anything in computers, updates are critical so before work every morning, the computer does its update ritual - Check of Maxa (5.3.02 is current) Avira, and Malware bytes.
Toss in a good bit of common sense (example: Don't open email purporting to be from UPS, IRS, the US Post Office, or anything else that even has a hint of fishy odor to it) and first thing you know, the internet's actually a useful tool.
"Live on $10,000" A Year Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
Do Tell Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email. - Thanks! ---- Last week's report is always here.
Thursday April 5, 2012 Much-a-Bunch of Job #s New jobless figures out from Challenger, Christmas, and Gray...and oh my, what's this, a decline in planned grenade rolling by the HR crowd?
In Wednesday's ADP report, meanwhile,
And just to turn this into a trifecta of good news on the jobs front, the weekly unemployment filings are just out:
Stock futures were down when I looked, so this may be a good time to go shopping, if you think there may be one more rousing rally going into summertime - or even future - to the election period.
I'm going to gamble on the market gaining today going into the unemployment report for the month due out tomorrow - and I figure an upside surprise is possible there...so this is a sell the rumors, buy the news mode maybe.
Inflation at the Table Say, here's something that we hold to be self-evident: Oil prices and the higher cost of food are correlated. Gee, who'da thought?
Egypt and Pollytics I can hardly wait to NOT turn on a radio later today so I can miss the rabid right radio bloviators who are going to make a huge deal out of the visit of Muslim Brotherhood reps to the White House.
When they visited with republicorps Lindsey Graham and John McCain it wasn't particularly notable. But now in the "Hi, we're holier than thou..." world of BS pollytics, this is going to be made a huge deal of by the anti Obama crowd which is getting understandably worried about the flock of turkeys the republicorps seem saddled with. But, pleeze...no more Bushes!
No doubt, rockets from Egypt reported hitting Israel this morning is just a kind of "attention-getter" that the MB reps are likely using to buy street creds with O. I can almost hear the discussion: "Peace with us, which will cost you [xxx] and these missile problems go away..." Of course, the response would likely be something along the lines of "You know Israel is ready to strike back?" One more meeting I can miss, though somehow I was left off the distro list.
Egypt is a strategic country, has Israel's south side, and the other ditch and yeah, I'd think that if the WH and State weren't talking to them, there'd be charges of dereliction. Ah, the American triple-standard has made it through another week.
Drug Wars Our Canadian news analyst was been watching the drug wars and has an intriguing thought:
Yep, that's one way top break down American mental toughness...thrill pills.
Working the Tax Laws Big story making this rounds this morning is how Amazon is selling $7 billion or so into the UK and not paying a corporate tax.
Sour grapes! Amazon's working the tax laws just like every other company doing biz in the UK...And speaking of the Unemployed Kingdom, aren't the Turks and Cayman and Belize part of the Brit way of skating on taxes? Suck 'em up, Fleet Streeters...turn about is fair play. D'oh!
Hey - Speaking of British Commonwealthers... You see where a second drone in four months has crashed in the Seychelles, according to this report. Tourist checklist: Tanning butter, lotsa cash, and oh yeah, a helmet?
WOW! HMD News If you're not a subscriber you may not know that yesterday's Peoplenomics was all about Virtual Reality living, but we really got into the Head Mounted Display discussion in a deep way (and part two is Saturday). But talk about timing - this about blew my socks off this morning:
"Google takes wraps off Web-based digital glasses." Damn prescient timing - now if I could just time stock entry and exit prices as well...
Free marketing advice: oogle.google.com would be cool - even if with a redirect since the right way to spell it is ogle.
Biofilm Killer Say, here's a kinda neat gadget to put in the first aid kit...when it gets to market. A "Handheld plasma flashlight that rids skin of notorious pathogens." I wonder if WaterPik will start putting a biofilm killer on their jet cleaners?
Let me know if you need my address for patent royalties...
A Sincere Thank You Thanks to UrbanSurvival and Mind On Money readers, looks like the charity Justice for Children is leading the pack to get a free social network program going...if you voted, thank you from both Howard Hill and me.
Still time to vote - by clicking here - and choosing Justice for Children...come on, it's just a mouse click! JfC presently has 92% of the votes going into this, the last day of public voting... Hats off to Arck Interative for giving back...wish more companies would do this...
Coping: How to Build a Conspiracy Theory A reader sent along a link to the details of how that "faster-than-light" neutrinos story may have gone wrong - because of loose cables. Wonders the reader: wouldn't this make the case that basic electronics learning is a survival skill?
Don't know it was intended or not, but the date on the story FWIW seems to be in the future, so maybe those neutrinos really......hmmm. --- By the way, I got thorough trounced by a few readers who said my perception of cold fusion not working is dead wrong. Typical:
OK, here's where we can see the new and improved Overarching Conspiracy Theory coming into view. Here's how it works:
Base-Building Before you can have an internationalist corporate conspiracy, you need a multi-trillion dollar opportunity - something that would put humankind more and more under the thumb of "The Man" - and what better than water?
The basis of the conspiracy is therefore 1989-1990 when Fleishmann and Pons are busy first announcing and then defending their work.
The first step (for the Illuminists) would be to cover-up their cold fusion break-through by scientific mumbo-jumbo and discrediting. Easily done in science by the "peer review process" since he who writes the checks buys the peers. This takes the breakthrough out of the public mindset over a 4-5 year period.
Meme Substitution Another key move would be to take the mental/headspace which the term "cold fusion" occupied in the public mind and replace it with something elses - but with an entirely different meaning to shunt the public off the scent of cheap and abundant power.
Presto! Along comes 1995 and the naming of a computer programming language as ColdFusion.
I am not saying that ColdFusion's naming is really a conspiracy but what I am illustrating here is how easily a conspiracy can be constructed.
Step 1: Quietly get people to thinking, in a series of health articles, that they need to drink water...almost all the time. Coffee in the morning and then water throughout the rest of the day. I saw the change first-hand work its way into a software company in the 2002-2003 period which we could use as the base of this Great Water Conspiracy.
Step 2: Gradually work up the idea of bottled water going up in price...and in the absurdity of it all, dismiss wonks like (Ures truly) who noticed that something was wrong in the world when low-end beer started being cheaper than bottled waters.
Step 3: Ramp up public awareness of water with stories like "Pepsi says Aquafina is tap water" which popped up in 2007. By n ow, water is crowding out the corn-sugar pops at the cor4ner convenience store and the price is going up. A cheap bottle of water is 79¢ to a buck.
Step 4:
Hint to the public through various channels
that fresh water is a global asset and one that could disappear in the
future. Why does the Clive Cussler novel Blue Gold
Step 5:
Concept takes root. Books that hint at a
future of very expensive water come out. Let's use this as an example
from 2009 Heart of Dryness: How the Last Bushmen Can Help Us Endure the Coming Age of Permanent Drought
Love that term: "Permanent Drought." That's gonna keep water prices high.
Step 6: Even when stories start to pop out, like the one from last November than an "Italian Cold Fusion machine Passes Another Test" rest comfortably knowing that with more than 20-years to work the problem, the Illuminists have had time to drive up the price of water, work out all the details of branding it, and soon, they ought to be lining up centrifuges or whatever they need to start differentiating water from being "plain" to seriously "optimized."
Step 7: Since the living water crowd is already out there, all they'd need to do to start selling "refined water" is to explain to the public, through a series of ads how this is all gonna work:
The sweet part is, the price gets driven up again, and the more concentrated (deuterium-rich water) is really jacked up and sold to the home power crowd at just the right concentration to keep the cost per kilowatt-hour, slightly below fossil, in order to cause a modulated migration which will be funded by the Illuminista Bankster Division.
There. Pretty damn cool conspiracy theory, huh? Easy to make, and I'd wager one of these days, perhaps using some of the data in "Radiation effects in wild terrestrial vertebrates - the EPIC collection" by Sazykina and Kryshev as a basis, a complete longitudinal study could be modeled (you do have a Cray, right?) suggesting that Nature has a kind of built-in death curve which this newest pet crackpot conspiracy theory would sketch out like this:
There...can't have a good crackpot theory without it meeting the necessary criteria on the web to get legs and run, namely:
Oh, and if reduced radiation level water shows up, don't blame me...I'm a victim of that computer disease XMT. Extensible Markup Thinking. I really oughta tell you about that one of these days...
And not to be confused with the robot jellyfish powered by seawater...
Free Advice - from a Lawyer? Not too often I will mix things from Peoplenomics - which is more about trend-spotting and getting this, or that, investment decisions sorted out, but one of the items I touched on yesterday got a very useful response from a reader which I thought I would pass along more broadly...
I didn't even know there was such a thing - so now I do and so do you. Fine advice and much 'preciated. And potentially useful if the the centrifuged water doesn't show up at the supermarket pretty soon.
More tomorrow, more'n likely....
Wednesday April 4, 2012 The Wednesday Reader Note Normally, with our super-short reader note, we simply advise you as to what's up for subscribers to our premium content over at www.peoplenomics.com and we do mention that there's a new article at our co-authored Strategic Living site that has a longish piece describing every investor's problem finding the Next Big Thing as we describe Trouble Betting on the Leading Edge.
But before you get all wrapped up in your day, let me ask you to do a good deed - and like some, this one won't cost you any money, just a few minutes and a couple of mouse clicks. My friend and coauthor Howard Hill is asking for "A little help?" to raise money for a charity he has been involved in for years (may be decades, come to think of it) and his story here - is a way you can click your way to some good karma for the day. Please do this! Justice for Children was leading when I looked, but we'd like to see this slam-dunked. Thank you.
Now, on to Peoplenomics this morning:
Visions of Virtualized Housing We were working on research this week for an upcoming article on the Strategic Living site (should be up about April 29) but what was amazing is it triggered some fascinating concepts about how far "home virtualization" could be taken. So this morning - after the usual dissecting of the markets and such, we will peer into the future because I'm becoming more and more convinced, just like old man tipped the kid in the movie "The Graduate" - "Plastics!" - I'm only gonna say this softly so we all have time to cash in on it: "Shhh! Virtualization!"
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And a thank you to all the folks who sent emails of concern because of the storms up in Dallas on Tuesday (look out east - they're heading your way...). Thankfully not so much as a power outage, but the well-wishing helped, I'm sure.
More tomorrow at our usually few-minutes-before-eight Central.
Tuesday April 3, 2012 Executive Influence I've always held the US Supreme Court in the same mental space reserved for baseball umpires: They get to make the hard calls, and despite what the manager of the team on the wrong end of a call may say, the umpire is still the ump, and the Court is still the Court.
But what we have (with baseball weather quickly approaching, as I try to keep analogies seasonal) is the manager of the "other team" basically going out to the home base umpire to yell, even before the disputed strike is called.
At least, that's a pretty good (and fun) way to frame president Obama's comments that rejecting the healthcare plan would be an act of "judicial activism."
Considering the High Court is, indeed unelected (which apparently is not a good thing by Obama's measure (or he wouldn't have mentioned it, eh?) I figure until they make the disputed call, the coach of the "other team" ought to have the good sense to return to his dugout and at least have the courtesy to wait for the disputed pitch to be thrown.
Fans will have a chance to throw out that manager (and his team) before the next "game." Every fan I have talked to agrees that "Powers not specifically delegated to the central government are reserved to the States." Buying insurance under threat of sanction just wasn't in those delegated powers...and administrative law don't count. Now, back to the dugout, please.... --- Baseball season began March 28th...the political season began in 1771. Some of us remember when the Whigs were in the pennant race. Might have clinched the pennant in 1848...
Political Dumb-Dumb Dept. OK, I read the report where David Axelrod says Mitt Romney is "oblivious" to everyday life."
Help me here: Why would anyone be surprised that a top Obama type would blast away at the front-running republicorp put-up before the convention?
Another fine example of "Can't you please go back to the dugout and wait till the decisions are made in Tampa?" Baseball is so much more refined the politics. Want more proof?
High Court Strippers They may not be the best umpires out there, as the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that a strip search prior to be tossed in jail for even small infractions is OK.
Hmmm... Humiliation as a deterrent to crime, maybe? I've never been arrested, but I daresay I would gross-out thems that search, if it every came to that.
That Elusive Recovery I don't know if you happened to catch the Construction Spending report from the Census Bureau Monday, but it was a pretty interesting set of data to mull:
This isn't the only bad news on the construction front: Bloomberg reports that home prices could drop another 10% from current levels, and I'm thinking it will be more than that.
If you're wondering when it's financially "safe to come outside again" here's an interesting theory which I've just cobbled up - help yourself to it:
Since, by my newest crackpot/armchair economist theory says the economy is not yet fully in recovery mode yet, I ditched my long position in the market, for about a wash in keeping with my older axiom:
Still the NY Times says "Investors are looking to buy homes by the thousands." Ya'll have fun.
Jawboning Syria A UN group is heading there later this week. Look for a 20-minute break in killings there.
Lighting Up Ships and planes are being advised to avoid the area east/northeast of North Korea which is planning to pop off a missile April 12-16.
Intelligence types will be watching this closely, no doubt, since as goes NK throw capability, so goes Iran's, presumably.
Drones, Drones on the Range Revisited I promise by Friday to get the Chris Ross version of "Drones on the Range" up on YouTube. But, meantime, look aghast, if you will, at US plans to use nuclear-powered drones which could fly for month's at a time.
Tisk, tisk, what's that you're saying about "Friggin flying Fukushimas to go?" Don't you have any respect for the Uber Security State answer to economic woes? What are you? A Libertarian, or something? There's Security State money for everyone, speaking of which...
Need a Quick $10-million? Not sure which - if any - are in the dead or alive category - but a visit to the government's "Rewards for Justice" site might be one way...provided you've got a passport, friends in Pakistan, and can figure out how to bag some of these folks.
I'll stay with stock tips and MegaMillions tickets, myself.
Mass Murder A mess with seven dead and three wounded Monday in San Francisco, which apparently related to a student being expelled a few months back, says this report.
Aging Gracefully Last night, after wrapping up in my office, I wandered over to the house where Elaine was happily exercise-dancing to and old Foreigner CD. We both agreed that the 1980's were about as good as life on Earth ever got: Jobs, music, dancing, partying, and just enough wild living to skate around runaway government.
Well, turns out, we are not the only people thinking this way: The British website Friends Reunited, says this report, has been surveying people and sonofagun if age 33 isn't as good as it gets for most people.
For me, that would have been 1982, for Elaine, well that's classified....and apparently even I don't have a "need to know."
Coping: Tuesday at the WuJo - Science Goo I could be wrong, but there seems to have been a noticeable decline in the number of "WuJo" reports - people running smack dab into a corner of the Twilight Zone, only in real-life with no commercial interruptions.
Take this reader up in Wyoming:
Yes, dear reader, I'm afraid so. People often experience little "glitches" like this and usually they are not big enough to cause a noticeable "bump" in the reality track of Life, which I often liken to playing an old-fashioned vinyl record - mostly it works fine, but every so often a little "dust" (or whatever) in the space-time continuum comes along a reality has a small "scratch" in it.
Interestingly, these "scratches" are semi-predictable and there may be some science to them. For example, there's the law of large numbers meets probability theory. For every X number of coin tosses, there is a normal distribution of heads and tails. But the tell-tale of the "dust" or "scratches" shows up in the runs of 8 (or more) coin tosses which all turn up heads, or tales.
The analytics problems are several: First, while we can predict with high confidence that such outliers will occur, the precise when is a bitch. That explains why neither of us won the MegaMillions lotto on Friday.
My thinking is that when you have an experience a "jump" like this one, it's sort of like running into several back-to-back splotches of dust or scratches in the Reality Line.
Near as I can tell, quantum mechanics has pretty well settled at the non-level on the idea that the "arrow of time" is an average, not an absolute.
In fact, just here in the last day, the L.A. Times reports the "'Faster-than-Light' neutrino scientist steps down."
Know what I think? My hunch (unprovable, of course) is that Antonio Ereditato's resignation from running the Oscillation Project with emulsion racking apparatus (OPERA) was an outgrowth of this "dust"/"scratches" phenomena!
My guess - and it's only educated by my 19-years of schooling - is that science is both really, really, good, and really, really dumb. This'll take some explaining, but go with me on this.
You probably remember Austrian physicist Erwin Schrödinger who in 1935 rocked the quantum physics world by saying that if a cat is placed in a box, with precisely a 50-50 chance of being alive when the box was opened, after being seal for a while with a 50-50 poison, then expectations will determine whether the cat is dead, or alive, when the box was opened. (This was before PETA could stop such animal experiments, even if with virtual cats.)
This was confirmed with the observation that light can exist as either a particle or a wave - but not both at the same time!
This "macro expectation" stuff is not entirely theoretical. My pet theory, unveiled for criticism this morning, is that as science is zeroing in on the underpinnings of reality, sometimes the early explorers get caught by a kind of "science goo."
My theory goes like this: Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons (of Cold Fusion) fame may have "caught reality in a coin flipping run" which - we all know happens in ways we can't quite figure, but we know coin-flipping outcome clusters. So, in physics experiments, knowing Schrödinger's puddy-tat is always in play - along with the particle/wave duality - the body politic of science is not prepared to accept cold fusion, so as later experimenters set out to duplicate the results, the discover that cold fusion doesn't work!
Now, I ask you: Is that because cold fusion doesn't work, or is it because Pons and Fleischmann got lucky and on one of their tests, caught reality in a WuJo coin-flipping run?
Fast forward to the resignation of Ereditato from OPERA: Again, did his team catch Reality in "mid-run?"
Getting the answer to this one right is profoundly important: If we answer one way, the future of humanity could involve faster-than-light travel (FTL) and it could be powered by Cold Fusion which is still being studied.
It's also critical to both the human potential movement as religion because - as we've discussed here - everything comes down to intention in this cat-like world and intending things into happening seems to be permissible under Schrödinger, but it seems to be influenced as much by intent and its next-door neighbor prayer or meditation by the religion types.
All of which would be a rather benign matter, except that with the internet, a global mass consciousness is appearing, and if everyone in the world could be brought to intend that cold fusion works, and that neutrinos can go faster than light, then they would - in my view - have a way of averaging into harder and harder layers of reality (e.g. more dense that ethereal intent) and we'd be set for a glorious future.
But, if there are darker-intended people in critical control positions, the slightest little tweak - at precisely the right moment - pushes the expectations to a negative outcome. Which leaves the darker-intended people in control, using such replicable action-at-a-distance for their own devices, including quantum cryptography (entanglement continues to be proven) for their own ends, while directing (orchestrating) various large intention experiments for their own ends.
Neat way to throttle human progress while they try to "lock up the future" and I'd be willing to bet that upon inspection we could find certain tentacles of control leading from peer-science to the ones who have large intention groups under their influence, as such intentions are orchestrated from the pulpit and the web almost continuously.
All of which would be subtle, nearly invisible, in fact, and yet very much in the interest of those who manage global intent through their network. Which is probably what makes people like us so curious...we have a nasty habit of going off intended outside the herd.
Elaine's got her nose in The Intention Experiment: Using Your Thoughts to Change Your Life and the World
Unanswerable for now: Whether Fleischmann and Pons, and now Antonio Ereditato were unwitting victims of wrong expectations.
Down the peer-reviewed line of inquiry, populated by largely by skeptics with deeply-held preconceived notions, is confinement to the "hard reality cell" on the prison planet.
But down the other path - the unbiased, but leaning to the "wouldn't that be cool - if" way of thinking, lies the further exploration and eventual right-use of the power of intent and the co-creation of a magical futures as a working partner with Universe.
For now, most people seem content to simply be "flipped" by the intentions of others and I'm sorry to see Ereditato leave without looking in the cat box a many, many more times.
Following McKenna's Work Email worth sharing:
Cool...
Reader's Writes Electronics as a survival skill - as a follow up to yesterday's column:
Me either, which is why the solar panels and ham radio gear: If complex society ever does collapse and the works of Tainter and Diamond suggest that is only a matter of time, I figure there will be some survival value in pushing messages around the world if the internet goes missing... Speaking of which:
The Radio Corner A fair number of Monday emails pointed out that the Google Tap story from Monday was a joke...and then I realized the last line had been overlooked, so I added the "Say: What day was that posted by Google?" part.
Although UrbanSurvival is posted about 8:00 AM - usually a few minutes before - the proof-read version is often up at 8:20 to 8:30. If you hate typos, try reading then, since often it takes a while to do through all the antics and get this and that fixed up so it makes (slightly more) sense.
I wasn't the only one who thought in was more than a joke at some level. Scroll down on this page here. - - - Mentioning BPSK in Monday's column was serendipitous, turns out. Had a call from my son last night and he was all excited having hooked up his SignaLink to his ham radio and promptly bagged half a dozen states plus several contacts with overseas stations in Europe and even a guy in Cuba.
Properly done, BPSK is like internet chat, except instead of the internet, a ham radio set-up gets messages around. --- A reader asked "Someone will invent a keyboard that sends Morse Code. Perhaps you?" Alas, CW/Morse reading is in most all the digital ham radio software including Ham Radio Deluxe (my favorite) and FL-Digi which G2 is using. - - - I'm still about 80-pages into writing my eBook on how to restore vacuum-tube ham radio gears. Latest visitor to the restoration bench is an old National NC-300 which I picked up cheap on eBay, and after a few bucks worth of parts, ought to fetch more than I paid for it. At the moment, just two problems remaining: An intermittent problem in the first fixer stage (may be something as simple as a tube) and re-capping the power supply hasn't completed ended the radio's hum problem.
So, when I'm not launching new client ventures, or doing work on the property here, chasing hum around is a lot of fun... (takes all types, huh?) --- Drop by tomorrow for our abbreviated Wednesday Reader note - while tomorrow's Peoplenomics discusses the Bleak Future of Cash...
Monday April 2, 2012 Muddling Through a Depression I've told you countless times that the US was muddling through its replay of the 1929-1941 economic depression in a time-expanded way, but with a look around we can also view events as a global depression as well. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone was back up to 10.7% in February, and on Thursday, we'll get an update from the US Department of Labor on how things are here.
Unlike the first Depression, this one has been a big slap. It has been much more spread out. When banks failed in the first Depression, people were left beggared overnight, but in this one, FDIC has been solving problems regularly, and last week's failures of Premier Bank of Willamette, Illinois, and Fidelity Bank of Dearborn, Michigan, added another 17-branch closures or reorganizations to the more than 5-thousand branches failing since IndyMac.
Likewise, the instant foreclosures of the first Depression have been spread out over time, too. Still, banks have not been entirely onboard with the recent "settlement" which amounts to banks agreeing to take a bit less from homeowners caught in the real estate bubble collapse. Now, the government is set to crack down on eight financial outfits that weren't part of the national settlement, says the NY Times.
The US stock and bond markets have weathered it all, so far. Business confidence remains high and new all-time highs for the Dow are less than 1,000 points away, that is, if you overlook the underlying inflation rate.
Construction spending and factory orders (what few there are left!) are out today and tomorrow. along with the Fed's Open Market Committee notes tomorrow afternoon. Auto and truck sales may yield further clues.
The biggest numbers of the week will come Wednesday and Thursday, starting with the ADP jobs report and then Challenger numbers ahead of Friday's "official" unemployment rate, which might see an improvement of a tenth, or so.
We'll review the most important number of the week - consumer spending (and hence debt) on Saturday for Peoplenomics readers - comes out late Friday.
As we roll up our sleeves (for the ViseGrips) and another work week, Asia was mixed, as was Europe, so a split decision in US stock and bond markets seems reasonable barring out of left field events.
But this is how it works out: A long - deliberately protracted Depression which lessens its impacts and keeps the global game going. So it's another Monday and we're off to the task of keeping a bit of what we make for another week. Make next week's MegaMillions will pay off, since this one didn't for either one of us.
March to the Police State The BBC has a report on how email and web use are to be monitored by UK masters under new laws set to be unveiled shortly.
Wonder if they're going to time-share some server racks at the new NSA digs up in Utah? If you know the answer to that you couldn't tell us, anyway. --- That's bound to rub a few people in government wrong, but I just calls 'em like I sees 'em. If the government types were really just working for the people, and people said "No!" they would stop whatever the offending practice might be. Surveillance, bail-outs, wars, whatever, eh? On the other hand, if the worker says to the master "No!" but the master goes on doing whatever anyway, then who is working for who becomes evident.
Speaking of Wars and Such Bill Moyers' "The Real Costs of War" is being cited at places like TruthOut.
The numbers aren't pretty, but then the costs of securing oil and opium never have been. ---
Getting good reviews: Rachel Maddow's book Drift: The Unmooring of American Military Power --- Navy ship count, as we ramble toward April 23'rd's talks: only four carriers out, but up to six assault ships and still 33 attack subs... Holster the potassium iodide for a few weeks, or order from Shane Connor's place.
Egypt at the Turn Not to say that extremism isn't real in the Arab world, however. We note that legal and administrative charges have been dropped which clears the way for Khairat el-Shater of the Muslim Brotherhood to run for president.
With tensions high in Gaza, the possibility looking out a couple of years of further warfare over Gaza rolls into view. And these developments may worry Israel into a "better git 'er done" mindset over Iran for "there goes the neighborhood" goes ...err....ballistic. --- You saw where the wives and daughters of Osama bin Laden got a simple knuckle-rap by Pakistan for being in their country illegally?
Indonesia Demonstrations Follow-up from the Jakarta Bureau:
Still, S&P holding a positive outlook for Indonesia may be more than they'll
be able to do up here in the land of the --- Also on the radar this morning are big dissident wins in Myanmar's contested elections which may bring them back into the global economy. -- President of Hungary has been forced out by word that his doctorate was plagiarized. Hmmm...we don't do that to leaders here, do we? --- My new grassroots political idea just arrived: How about we - the whole nation - agree not to grouse about airport security lines, if everyone in Washington has to do lie detector tests for anything said on the Hill plus drug screenings and financial monitoring on a real-time basis and we enact single-puirpose legislation, too? No more riders...
Coping: With What Goes Around: Morse Code One of the nice things about having long time friends - like my best friend who's a retired major from the .mil world, who I've been friends with since we were both about 3½ - is that you can share some long-term interests, like ham radio which we both got into at age 13, or so. For the balance of high school we had a friendly ham radio competition.
He'd put up this antenna, or that, built some most excellent Heathkit gear (which you can find oodles of on eBay's used radio trading pages) and I even helped him built a two-element quad antenna out of 20-foot sections of bamboo, picked up as I recall from the old Tashiro's Hardware store in Seattle and then walked back to Beacon Hill where we both had budding antenna farms.
Most of our early ham radio years were spent banging out Morse Code, since voice doesn't have the range of continuous waves (CW) and one teacher at my high school, the late Bob Langley, K7WYK, whose call-sign was later reassigned, had a Johnson Ranger transmitter and one of the best receivers of the day - a Collins 75-S3B. Bob was a CW artist. And by the time I had picked up my First Class commercial radio ticket at age 16, Bob and I were chatting well north of 35 words per minute and we spent hour upon hour, late nights and weekends, seeing who could get the best signal reports out of Japan and other distant (DX) countries.
It was a fine science to me: Bob was using a 53-foot HyGain Hy-Tower antenna, nothing more than a fancy vertical, but it cost a fortune back then. and he'd spent hours running ground wires over, under, around and through his wife's garden on the north side of Queen Anne hill. My antenna was usually an inverted vee type, at the top of a 4" diameter hunk of irrigation pipe that another then young ham and I had carried on our shoulders on a 13-mile hike from up in the Shoreline area (around 179th N.E. to be exact) all the way down to Beacon Hill. It was a long walk, but since I tended to be rabid about any task undertaken, especially if there was a radio in it somewhere, the high-speed CW (Morse) competition was fierce, yet friendly.
Not everyone I knew from back then turned into a high speed Morse op. My buddy who walked the irrigation pipe was good for 30+ words per minute, and he went on after school into the Navy as a reactor operator on subs and was one of the pioneers of a digital mode called BPSK. (Binary phase-shift keying, but it's a bit early for that level of detail.)
My chum since age 3½ took his school studies more seriously, perhaps because he didn't go to a public school, his parents instead electing to send him to the "ruler-raps-knuckles" school over on Capital Hill. While he was pulling a 4.0, which led to a BA and honors at Seattle U and Masters (also with honors) at the University of Chicago, I kept puttering with radios and went down the broadcast engineering track. --- OK, so what does this have to do with Monday morning, you're wondering - if you haven't clicked away yet?
Well, I got an email from long term friend and guess what? Morse Code may be on the verge of a strong comeback! Gmail has a new goodie in development called Gmail Tap and you can see a video on it here. Morse Code is making a comeback! About damn time. --- I was going to send my friend an email back, telling him that Heathkit, which made those fantastic radio kits he built through the 1960's, is planning to get back into the kit business, but I've had mixed feelings about that. He's got a nice life/nice wife and he lives in a deed-restricted area where his single wire vertical antenna is hardly visible against its Doug fir background is considered pushing things.
Still, since his kids are nearly grown, as much as any of our kids really "grow up" I might mention it to him one of these days, since probably half the ham radio population is poised mouse-ready to buy one of the first new....whatevers....the reconstituted Heathkit decides to launch back into ham radio with.
They won't be alone. There have continued to be some "hangers on" for electronic kit-builders. Outfits like Ramsey Electronics figured (rightly) that it was all about price when it came to kits. No idea how many of their low-cost (and low power) ham radios have been built, but well into the 10's of thousands, I'm sure.
Another outfit, where you can buy kits is Vectronics, where everything from a basic AM crystal radio set on up to lower/middle challenge level products can be found.
The main competitor which managed the right mix of factory-assembled versus kit options is Elecraft and their newest offering, the KX-3 all mode, ultra portable, offers better performance than a desktop full of ham gear would do when we were kids in a package that'd be the size of two older TV remotes. Not for beginners at kit-building, mind you. If you're "all-thumbs" and have never wound a coil, or chased around surface mount parts, the assembled version of the KX-3 is only a hundred bucks more than the kit.
A lot less expensive radio kits are out there, including YouKits which has gotten pretty good reviews of its HB-1B four-band radio for about $300. The Elecraft is more expensive because it's a highly refined radio in comparison, offering single sideband voice, and so on. The HB-1B is strictly a Morse box.
If you're wondering why I'm going into such detail about the goings on in the ham radio cult, there are two reasons, really. The main one is to stir up your interest in learning Morse Code. If Google is interested, maybe you should be, perhaps?
There are lots of reasons, as a person gets older, to have this onboard back-up communications system locked up in your brain.
Imagine, for example, having a stroke and not being able to talk or even write something down due to the paralysis involved. Yet any body part that can be reliably "driven" by the person inside your head can get a message to the outside world. There are many recorded cases of injured ham radio ops communicating with medical types (and family) this way.
A more selfish reason for mentioning all the other kit-makers is I want the first Heathkit and if you've been lulled into a KX-3 build, then that's one less person in line ahead of me. --- Grabbing a soldering iron and wiring up a Morse code capable radio - then banging out code to someone halfway around the world may not seem logical, (but compare that with what's on Facebook and hams look pretty damn sane) but there are no tariffs or monthly fees and local ham radio clubs do a fine job of teaching the basics and since the FCC changed the rules a few years back, there is no Morse required.
Still, with outfits like Google rediscovering Morse code, kids like my son (if that's what you call a 32-year old Extra Class ham), are getting interested in adding it to their personal skill bank. I'm encouraging it, too. Even went so far as to pick up the one of those Morse Code "coins" which are selling on eBay and mailing it up to G,II.
So that's the point of this morning's off-news report: What comes around goes around:
And you never know when Morse will pop up. When my flight instructor and I were ferrying our old Beechcraft back from Ohio last year, he turned on a nav station and asked me how I would identify it, expecting me to look the radio frequency and scan navigation aids on the chart for the right VOR.
Instead, knowing Morse, I was able to say "That's RID..." or one of those. May be the only time I've ever seen him surprised...and not often you can do that to a 40-thosuand hour pilot. "How'd you know that?"
"Morse identifier."
Next thing you know, Google's going to rediscover the Q-signals, too...which Wikipedia describes this way:
Not that texters haven't gotten the general idea of abbreviations right.
As luck would have it QTF isn't taken and the change from from texting WTF to QTF could be used to designate a code-competent texter as what goes around comes around.
Again.
And maybe, just maybe, Google could "invent" high speed telegraphy for the texter set. The world record for Morse text is about 72 words per minute, but in HST competition, using messages in an expected form, speeds even higher have been seen. For some, it's almost as fast as typing and you can still keep your eyes on the road. Though I still make mistakes on a key, just like here on a keyboard.
Say: What day was that posted by Google?
Sailing Notes A cutter will bring a couple of injured sailors into SF today - caught out in a Pacific storm in the Clipper Round the World yacht race. --- Just as important as knowing when to embark on dangerous adventures is knowing when to quit. I hung up my motorcycle boots when I hit the low 50's, getting too old for real offshore sailing, and airplanes will go by the wayside in a few years. too. What was it that Clint Eastwood said in one of his flicks? "Man's gotta know his limits..."
They move over time. (I plan to quit writing at age 95, too...might have run out of stories by then.)
To-Do List: Update Cookie Manager The folks at Maxa Research have a new (small) tweak for Cookie Manager which can be downloaded from inside the product for users. I will put the updated download on tomorrow morning when I get out of my writing frenzy.
Around the Ranch: April Fool's Day As promised, I cut my hair on April Fool's day. A little different than my usual "buzz cut." Elaine was lending a hand, but Panama (who I suspect cut more than one head of hair in his 20+ years in .mil land) hauled out his Remington with a long (1") guide and administered the best haircut I've had in 20-years.
Don't know if you own a hair-cutting rig, but even a $40 kit like the Wahl 79524-3001 Home Barber 30 Piece Kit
Strange thing to put on a prepping list, but a buzz cut is a lot easier to maintain than longer hair. For now I look like a banker, all right-respectable like. When the heat of summer arrives, the hair gets progressively shorter.
May help with dieting, too, come to think of it. I seem to remember from my study of hypothermia in my sailing days that the body loses something like 40% of its heat through the head. Stands to reason that keeping the "insulation short" would be a diet aide.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Off TV Dinners for a while - Elaine cooked up a mess of BBQ and teriyaki chicken. That and coleslaw plus vitamins for a few days.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
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($10, Amazon) come to mind? We're up to 2008 by now.
($20).
by Lynn McTaggart (about $8-bucks, used) and it really seems to fit nicely
with my own researches on gambling lately, and how it is that
gambling "rituals" may actually influence the timely arrival of runs.
($15, Amazon).
pays for itself in a few months.
