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Park The Quake Jitters for a While

Just in from 2012 researcher Patrick Geryl:

Hi George

Just found out that to have an X flare... a combination with Saturn or Jupiter is needed.

This is the reason we have a lot of sunspots... but not complex ones....

So the next date is May 5 – 8... which has Saturn in it...

Sorry... fast learning... After finding this i can eliminate a lot of potential days....

And also no quake expected because that also needs Saturn or Jupiter in the alignment

Patrick

More, presumably on his web site a research continues, but (hopefully) no megaquakes this weekend...

 

 

A Word from Jas Jain

We don't normally get into editorial positions, especially on Friday with Miller time close at hand, and another weekend at long last in sight, but with the headline in the Washington Times that "Obama reverts to 2008 plan: Blame Bush." I thought we ought to clear the air on some of this tax breaks for the rich crap that gets circulated.  Even my deflation pal (Dr.) Jas Jain sees through it:

"Editorial--Top Individual Income Tax Rates and the GDP Growth: Exposing the Lies of  Right-Wing Republicans

I am sick and tired of propagandist (redacted) claim, almost on a daily basis, that lower taxes, and he means the rate on the top individual income tax bracket, or marginal tax rate, leads to higher growth. Most right-wing Republicans believe in his lies and never bother to check the facts with the benefit of the hindsight. There is no subject related to the economy in America that has more propaganda than taxes because over time trillions are at stake.

I have known that (redacted) and other Right-wingers have been lying and finally decided to present the facts in graphical form, as shown in Fig. 1. As you can see, as the top rate has fallen from 90% to 35%, the annual GDP growth rate for the following 8 years has fallen from 5% to 1.5%.

Since the GW Bush tax cuts, all the GDP growth, and lot more, has been bought by $12.5Tr in additional federal govt and household debt. But for the growth due to borrow-and-spend the annual GDP growth in the US since 2001 would have been close to –4% (minus four percent). Can you spell g-r-e-a-t-e-r d-e-p-r-e-s-s-i-o-n? The cost of postponing the greater depression is simply a much worse and longer lasting depression in the future. The time bomb is ticking.

 

Jas                  jas_jain@hotmail.com

While Jas and I disagree on some things, I never question his data.  With a PhD in digital signal processing (and some of his work in most routers, FWIW) I have to take his criticism pretty seriously.  The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting to be us.  America has only three ways out of the economic prison we're in:

  • Dial-back lifestyle (government spending) expectations.

  • Pay more in income taxes

  • Or blow up the debt to where it's unsustainable.

We're tackling #3 and half-assing around #1.  #2 is untouchable.

 

For now, thanks to the corporate complicity of both political parties, everyone's bitching about how we need to lower taxes, but nobody (as Jas points out) wants to address the hard-core economic reality:  For a given lifestyle of government (spending on thus and such) you either pay more tax, or you load up more debt.  Is that too complicated for voters?  The republicorps thus become the More Borrowing party (lower taxes mean more borrowing) and the democorps become the Restrain Spending party...well, maybe, but if not, they'll be the "left holding the sack of sh*t party." Which would suit the other guys fine, since as we've said all along, politics isn't about being honest, it's about being elected.  As any former house speaker would know,eh? 

 

Since both sides lap the swill of the corporate trough, no one touches marginal tax rates.  Hello?

 

When crash comes to shove, I'd appreciate it if you didn't say "It's all Greek to me..."  because it isn't.

 

Our US Debt to GDP ratio is higher than Greece's and if the republicorps and democorps can't at least be honest with the public about their conspiracy to support the corporate coup in America, then both parties are undeserving of votes or money.

 

Not that it will stop them, of course, but it's a thought.

 

Ties That Blind

A lot of eyes are on the US-Latin America summit going on in Colombia

 

Doesn't seem to me like a lot of summitting is required:  They have energy, rare earth metals, cheap labor, hookers, and plentiful drugs.  Our side of the equation is unquenchable energy demand, high tech mania, debt-driven spending, secret service agents, and a porous border.  So: Do we really need to "summit" to figure this shit out?

 

Watch Bahrain & Britain

...figures our Canadian news analyst up near Winnipeg:

Dear Mr. Ure,

 

While the Formula 1 racing series is gearing up for a weekend race at Sakhir, Bahrain, "The Bahrain Freedom Movement" remains pitted against the government in power. Interestingly their website appears founded in 2007, pre-dating recent clashes by years, and bears a London address. 

 

As an aside, The Islamic Centre of England issued a disturbing report on February's "Global Islamic Awakening" conference. It is surprising that this anti-Western, pro-Iranian rhetoric emanated from London and not Tehran? 

No, not surprising at all, given that as immigration of Islamic peoples has increased into the UK (the upper-crust Brits seem intent on large servant classes, not being bright enough that such policies circle-back and bite the ass) they stand to reap the consequences of a non-homogenous population, but you see, in the grand reality of 'Everything's a business model' that's where cameras on every corner and the rest of the UK terrornoia is coming from.  Well done, old chaps.

 

Definition:  Terrornoia:  A psychological condition which drives organizations to monetize all aspects of crime imaginable.  Also:  Inability to distinguish between infractions, misdemeanors, crime, organized crime, racketeering, and terrorism. 

 

Previous linguistic iterations lacking sufficient budgetary oomph included "subversives, gangs, mobsters, hoods," etc.  Condition is terminal when "speeding"  or having a joint in your pocket on a train is classified as act of  "terrorism."

 

Similar to McCarthyism but with much larger budgets.

 

New Plague

May be in the offing in the central highlands of Vietnam.

 

Memo to self:  Stay home.

 

CFTC Semi-Work

OK, yes, the CFTC announced:

"Federal Court Orders $14 Million in Fines and Disgorgement Stemming from CFTC Charges against Optiver and Others for Manipulation of NYMEX Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Gasoline Futures Contracts and Making False Statements"

But my question is still "WHY NO ACTION AFTER FOUR YEARS OF PROBING SILVER AND GOLD MANIPULATIONS?"  Can't rush into these things?

 

Government Sterilization Programs

There's been a huge story percolating around Uzbekistan's reported female sterilization program over the past few days.  Citing the country'spresident Islam Kaimov's orders (state-dictated sterilization) there's a huge backlash growing including now a site which has set up a petition for people to sign demanding change...a petition destined for SecState Hil Clinton.

 

Don't hold your breath on anything changing anytime soon but it is outrageous.

 

How Crazy is Medicine Getting Department

Looks like DNA is now obsolete...or, at least that's one possible take-away from the article "XNA is synthetic DNA that's stronger than the real thing."

 

Now, whether this kind of thing even qualifies for patent protection under my thesis that anything re-building the existing prior art is merely reassembling something into obvious iterations, is not the main concern.  What is the main problem is where innovative and technically alien lifeforms can take the whole planet, willing or otherwise.

 

As the above story about sterilization demonstrates, we can't even manage the basic chemistry of estrogen and testosterone, the mechanics of economics, or agree to globally ban weapons of mass destruction, land mines, and goodies like that.

 

Still, with those obvious short-fallings all over the place (*check under the local freeway overpasses for more human sharing/caring victims) we toss people in jail for breeding better marijuana and honor those who propose patentable forms of life.  Am I missing something, or have humans gone crazy/crazier here lately?

 

It's Bellingham's Fault

Up north of Seattle:  Looks like some new fault line discoveries are showing how the Strait of Juan de Fuca was once (and may still be) something extensible

 in nature.

 

Quake Window?

From Patrick Geryl:

Hi George,

Found no relationship between lunar phases and BIG earthquakes... However on April 21 it is new moon... You never know...

Prediction for April 22, 2012

April 19, 2012: Opposition Venus – Uranus across the Sun starts

April 20 – 24, 2012: Opposition Mars – Uranus across the Sun (strong)

April 21, 2012: Triple Line Up: Venus – Mercury – Neptune

April 22, 2012: Conjunction Mercury – Pluto and the Sun

Triple Line Ups:

April 22, 2012: Neptune – Earth – Mars (almost) Earth – Mercury – Uranus

April 22 – 23: Conjunction Venus – Mars and the Sun

April 22 – 23: Opposition Uranus – Venus - Mars across the Sun

Trapezium like configuration (parallelogram) from Earth – Mars – Venus – Mercury…

Conclusion: For April 22, 2012… Because of the trapezium (parallelogram) like configuration, the conjunctions, oppositions and the 3 Triple Line Ups… Large scale effects are possible on the Sun… One of these will happen: X flare, filament eruption or CME. But a powerful X flare combined with a big filament eruption(s) or big CME(s) is possible… This is one of the strangest Line Ups from the planets for the first half of the year.... Will the effects be visible from Earth? That is a difficult question to answer… The Triple Line Ups with Neptune and Uranus end at the back from the Sun and are therefore not viewable from Earth… However, the positions from Venus and Mercury are on the Earth facing side of the Sun… The trapezium configuration looks perfect around April 25… We have seen X flares appear days to weeks after the perfect trapezium (see: Study of Largest X Flares Ever Recorded)…

Patrick's predictions are online here (33 pages, plan on more coffee)...

And it looks like we have a lot of sunspots....

http://obs.astro.ucla.edu/cur_mag_fe1b.png 

Here you can follow the X flares in real time...

http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/ 

So the chances for this calculated(!) prediction becoming true are growing rapidly... and also the end of our civilization....

That's OK, though.  Only real question is in how it ends, isn't it?  Global quakery or financial chicanery...might be leading to the same place anyway...

 

Picture This

Decmocracy.info has a graphic on global derivative debt worth looking at here...be sure to scroll down.

 

WTF Department

"Austrian village "F*cking to vote on name change."

 

Shoot, we're always willing to lend free marketing ideas.  How about "Bitemein?"

 

WTF, II

Say, you don't think chickens are on the verge of becoming mammals, do you?

 

More after this...

 

 

 

Coping:  Friday Morning Knowledge-Sharing

Much feedback on yesterday's column, and I thought you'd get a kick out of come of it...since much of it shows there are innovative, thinking Americans left...

"You're using the mouse to select the block of text and its new location, so why not use it to Copy and Paste as well? Try programming your mouse buttons like this:

Thumb button = Copy Scrollwheel Click = Paste"

Violates "Ure's Law of Income."  If someone wants me to program a computer to do something, they need to pay me.  Betas? Programming? Cross my palm!

 

Next?

"Kudos for your letter to big M on the keyboard issues.  I'm replacing my MacBook Pro 17" keyboard for the second time because, like your Microsoft keyboards, it does not have injected plastic keys.  One would think that when you are buying the premium, top of the line laptop, the damned thing would have injection molded keys with the characters going all the way through the keys.  Unlike replacing a wireless or plug-in keyboard, replacing the laptop keyboard is a pain in the neck, requiring dropping off the MacBook for a couple of days at a special service center run by idiots.  I use the term "idiots" advisedly but will not bore you with the anecdotes underlying that wholly justified characterization."

---

"Dear George,  I hear you.  I'm a touch transcription typist 100WPM and all the letters wear off my keys as well.  The numbers wear off when I do a lot of numerical entry.
 
Just get some nail polish (colour your choice) and paint them back in.  No worries, mate.  seeya"

---

"George, I had to laugh at your comments today on keyboards losing their lettering, because I have the exact same problem! As a medical transcriptionist typing for 10 to 12 hours per day, I wear out the letters on my keyboards pretty fast. I've tried all sorts of things to "renew" the letters - inks, adhesive letters, etc. - and they all wear off again within a couple of days. Yeah, when I'm going on automatic pilot, so to speak, my fingers know where the letters are, but if I have to stop and consciously look for some reason it throws me off.

You've given me some new ideas now. I think I may take an old keyboard (I'm due to replace one again) and experiment with some careful engraving, filling and sealing. I'll let you know if I have any success in the matter."

The real answer to my keyboard pisstration is to find double-shot keyboards (a concept I'd previously only associated with vodka):

"George,

What you're seeking is a keyboard featuring "double-shot" keys.

They aren't inlaid, they're injection molded, much like some chocolate candies are.

First the inner key is molded, including a raised area in the shape of the letter the keytop will show; and then that piece is inserted into a second injection molder that over-covers the inner key on all sides -- and is flush in thickness with the key's shown character. Sometimes, a quick buffing is done to bring out the nice, crisp edges of the character.

As these keytops wear down, they have a LONG way to go to reduce the keytop thickness enough to make any difference. Mere paint wears off quickly, as you have discovered.

IBM Selectric keyboards used double-shot keytops, as do all high-quality, long-life designed others.

How you can tell if any key is double-shot is easy. Pop it off, and look at the bottom open part of the "cup" along the edges. You'll see both layers represented -- usually a whte inner cup, co-axially overlaid with a darker, visible outer layer.

Manufacturers put double-shotness (or not) into their data sheets.

Back when people cared about quality, lots of manufacturers made double-shot keyboards, but there are a few left around still. They won't be cheap, of course. But they will last a very long time and still be crisp and clear."

Now, that-there is useful knowledge to share, ain't it?  Oh, and this, too:

George

I used to use wireless keyboard and mice, the MS ones.

I found the RF from the mice made my hand hurt and the keyboard made my prostate hurt. I am sensitive to frequencies and chemicals.

Just from using even a corded mouse all day, everyday, I developed "mouse shoulder" a form of carpel tunnel in the shoulder and had to switch to using my left hand for the mouse..

I am 61 and spend 5 - 12 hours a day online, work related.

I went back to using corded keyboard and mouse, my favorite keyboard the MS 2000, $21 at OffDepot and the $20 Dynex mouse at Best Buy. I have them stashed around the country at work stations as they are so cheap and last me at least 2-3 years.

---

Next up, in Care to Share, we have the little matter of black-boxes which I'm not terribly paranoid about...but some people are:

"So when I read stories about the use of data recorders with terms like 'big brother' in them, I gotta ask what such worriers are doing that they don't want Big Brother to find out about? Honest people have nothing to fear...at least for now. And as long as I manage the data to my benefit...WTF?"

Which brings us to the Smart Meter problem...

"Time to get your shit together about smart meters Georgie boy.I in Prescott, Az. sat on my deck with my holstered .45 clearly visible with my sign saying no smart meter here and they passed me up like a leper. Read and get informed Georgie, all kinds of problems with those meters the least of which is increased costs and health issues. You're disappointing me Georgie."

---

"There is a nice little old lady retired from IBM who lives down the street from me. 84 years old.

PGE forced her to accept a Smart Meter last Fall.

It was put on the wall of the house adjacent to her living area for her big red hens. Four of them, very friendly. They were in the habit of laying BROWN eggs with THICK shells IN their nests.

Two weeks after the install of the SM those chickens were dropping eggs in the yard, not in their nests. They were now white egg shells and very thin and brittle.

My friend called PGE yet again. This time she told them that if they did not take the SM out on the next day she would smash it with her sledge hammer.

The next morning they were out and reinstalled an analog dumb meter as she had before.

Another three weeks passed.

Then the chickens began laying their eggs IN their nests. The eggs had THICK BROWN SHELLS again. Chickens were all happy and healthy again.

Now tell me that this is all in the heads of the chickens Geo.

And BTW we checked all the other possible causes: change of food (nope); change of water (nope); change of weather (nope); change of location and range (nope) etc etc. EVERYTHING was exactly the same except that the SM was gone and then the problems went away.

And yes, I did think of every possible variable. In my primary career as a Mainframes Computer Guru, I ascended thru the ranks operator, programmer, systems analyst, SR Systems Analyst, and then Management. I know how to analyze, evaluate, and think of everything. I was paid (at that time) a very handsome salary to do that stuff.

Of course I passed this chicken finding on to the big anti-SM group in Santa Cruz so they could circulate it. And PGE, well, they are very quiet and really really don't want to talk about it.

So that's my SM story and I'm sticking to it."

We're not doing any farm animals at the moment, and the cats aren't laying eggs, though you can damn-sure bet I will report if they do...

 

I'm not thrilled about Smart Meters, either (I have one) although since we have a largish solar installation for the office, and I sent in my co-generation agreement a couple of years ago (though they never acknowledged it...hmmm....) I would expect there to be non-normal metering at our place.

 

Last time I checked, the "smart meter" here uses a 800 or 900 MHz radio link, and unless you want to rip trunking radios out of commercial vehicles, and get rid of 900-MHz phones around the house, pardon me while I don't get too worked up.

 

The FCC has pretty clear rules limiting human exposure to ionizing radiation, and even though they tend to be about twice as high as the European standard, they are not unreasonable, and remember the smart meter is not transmitting all the time.

 

I suppose, if a person (like me) really didn't like smart metering, the solution would be to decide to re-insulate my house with foil-backed insulation, which when grounded would be unfriendly to line-of-sight metering.  And, if such an energy efficiency plan were undertaken by all your neighbors, then gosh, that might not be terribly friendly to such line-of-sight devices. 

 

Our smart meter is a good distance from our bedroom, but I do feel a need to re-insulate that side of the house with good foil-backed insulation to increase energy efficiency.  Come to think of it, the shop building may need insulating, too.  Note on the Amazon discussion board that it seems to be disappearing, though.

 

But I need to think this through - since the idea of people coming through the property monthly is not particularly welcome, either.  Just a matter of what your trade-offs happen to be.

---

Next, we have the little matter of whether a Carrington Event (solar electric grid buster) is a manageable problem.

"The part about the ready.gov site and their list of disasters from a Carrington or EMP

Specifically I take exception to your analysis that they are not unmanageable.

Perhaps you have forgotten that this type of event will bring down the JIT supply system turning all the big cities into chaos and civil war.

And managing the failures noted in that list is not a small or quickly done thing. Probably not manageable at all."

Well, like I said, I'm not too worried about it...and YES we DO make transformers in North America, turns out, but is it enough?  No:

George- Just to help your research there are at least 20-25 manufacturing sites in the US that manufacture power transformers by various companies. I can think of at least 4 sites that make transformers in the 20MVA-200MVA range. Others are manufacturing in the lower MVA range all the way to pole mount transformers in the 25Kva range. All padmount transformers used by utilities and commercial interests are built in the US or Canada. Competition for the large power transformers comes from Taiwan and Korea( very cheap) but it takes them up to 70-80 weeks to deliver.

I guess this wouldn't matter if all these sites lost power; however, one company has developed a Geomagnetic Induced Blocking Devise used specifically to ground the large Transformers. But implementation of these will take time. The entire Power Electrical System has been spending a ton of money in the last several yrs with strengthen the Grid against terror,natural,manmade(EMP) and Geomagnetic failures. Is it enough and can they install these fixes before a large event occurs? Your guess is as good as mine.

---

We actually do make transformers in Montgomery, Al. It takes two weeks to make one! But how are you going to power the plant with the gird down to make any??

---

Power Transformers are made here, just ten miles west of your sister, in my little town in Alberta Canada.

But the best knowledge on this issue was in this email:

"George,

Here is a little bit of info about the industrial transformer market. I spent a couple of years working for blank blank Energy in the Pacific Northwest. During that time we ran into a transformer shortage where they were on back order for 2-3 months. This got me to thinking about EMP’s and transformers so I asked around. This is what I found out. There are only 3-4 companies in the US that “make” transformers. (Honeywell, GE I do not know the others as they bought mostly GE and some Honeywell.) When I say make I am not sure if they make all the parts but they are assembled in one of those plants in the US. The shortage was caused by a shortage of a special metal that is used in the core of the transformer, that special metal is/was controlled by China. At that time for some reason China wanted a lot of it and so the US went without.

That not being scary enough the power company keeps on hand a 1-2 months’ supply of transformers to replace ones that fail and have new ones available for new construction project or power upgrades.

These transformers last 20 years or more on average. So their best case just in time inventory is only (12 x 20) 1/240 of the necessary transformers to replace all the damaged ones in the event of an EMP event. That is even assuming transformers sitting out in the open storage parking lots, not plugged in, survive such an event. And they were slated to be used within a month anyway to replace naturally failed ones. Assuming any survive, you have to replace the transformers first at the factories that assemble and make the parts for new ones. And then you need to get a huge influx of the special core metal to make or buy new cores from the source. That should be interesting to accomplish.

The rabbit hole gets deeper if you think about the time it would take to just rebuild and replace all of the transformers. Assuming the existing infra structure is intact, i.e. the factories, trucks and equipment to perform the work, it would literally take 20 years to build and replace all of the transformers with the existing infrastructure. Obviously that would have to be expanded and increased, an enormous task in the best of times, to say increase the infrastructure 20 times, to just get everything replaced in a couple of years. Who pays for this? Would it even be possible because the above assumption is that the infrastructure is intact. But after an event that is described in the book 1 Second After, everything in the infrastructure has to be replaced as well just to get the factories started making new transformers. Where are the magical seed transformers at that will be used to start the factories, (not even discussed the power generation plants)? Will there be any surviving ones? I have to imagine there will be but they will have to be found, collected, prioritized and somehow delivered to the most pressing sites to begin the rebuilding process. A daunting if not impossible task that will delay rebuilding for years.

No, if a large scale EMP event caused by whatever source, natural or manmade, that does this kind of damage will set us back to a time that very few have the skill sets left to survive the time it will take to “return to normal”. I think the book 1 Second After is right, If the lights suddenly go out, I do not believe many people will live long enough to see them turned back on.

And like anything else, an ounce of prevention...which is why our vehicles have 12-volt TVSs in critical places and the solar system has a gob of 24 V TVSs and if you don't know what a TVS is, read over here and learn.

---

Last, but not least, there's the little matter of should your car have a data recorder in it?  Well, back in my 9309  Porsche days I would not have said "No!"  It would have been "Hell NO!" because I might have been jailed for doing some multiple of the speed limit, even at 70 and higher.  Thanks to a) selling the Porsche and getting an older (bust faster) airplane, I am now content to drive slowly down to the local airport from whence I can drive anywhere at 135 MPH or faster.

 

Still, I am tempted to put one of these units in suggested by a reader:  A cop-like video system for your car!  Motion Detect Car Dash Video Camera Recorder DVR (About $45, Amazon) which also offers this one: 720P HD MOTION DETECT CAR DASH VIDEO CAMERA RECORDER DVR 64GB 2.5" TFT LCD 1280x720, 30fps (About $61).  I had no idea.  But check out his testimonial:

"I've been running a dash cam for several months now. I have plentiful accident history mostly due to other people. This though all started when my dad hit another car that pulled out on the street as he was driving down said street (Boulevard rule) but was cited by the cop. He started running a conventional palmcorder. I bought him one of the above. ($50 plus a memory card) because it records 24/7 and takes up much less space on the dash. I eventually got one for myself.

In the last 6 months our recorders caught 1 accident each. For him, a tow truck wandered out of his lane into my dad's car, and my own car was hit broadside by a vehicle entering the roadway. In both these accidents the other driver asserted that it was our vehicle that crossed the line. This is the #1 way to at least split fault, or if not split, put the fault totally on you. (The #2 way is claiming to be stopped when struck). The video is clear and does away with the he-said-she-said. I would otherwise be out a $500 deductible. I also enjoy having a camera record my driving in the case that a officer asserts that I was "driving erratically" or other bogus claim as a pretext to stop, examine and ultimately search my vehicle. [I was going to link the the PDF agreement of Tennessee Highway Patrol's agreement with ICE that divides Rt 40 westbound between the agencies for cash seizures (drug money flowing back to Mexico, but I cannot find it).

I've also recorded several near-misses and drunk drivers."

And, if the cop who pulls you over has a problem with your camera, I'd point out that any touching of your camera would be introduced as "willful destruction of evidence..." and are they sure they want to go through that?

 

Oh, and another reader said be sure to check out the Forbes story "Hate To Break It To You, But Your Car Likely Has A Black Box 'Spying' On You Already..."

 

America is still a land of two-way streets, long as we can keep them open.

 

What's a PDO?

As we wait to see if Patrick Geryl's quake correlation pays off, might also keep an eye on weather changes and specifically the PDO... A reader explains:

George,

Long time off and on reader.   Don't know if you have researched the Pacific Decadal Oscilation.  If not do some Goggling (Google).  This is an approximately 30 year off and on trend similar to the La Nina which is 1 to 2 years at most.  Then go to 

 http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.


This will show you a spread sheet with a monthly + or minus reading since 1900.  Especially interesting is the last 2 1/2 years.  The NW farmer newspaper "CAPITAL PRESS" said that farmers may have to start modifying their planned planting schedule or change some of the crops being grown.  Last year and this year farmers have been behind on their ability to plow and plant crops in the spring and last year was a relatively cool summer.  Moved to NW Oregon in 1984 so I never experienced the negative phase of the oscilation but have heard stories from people in our age group, about what the weather was like when they were young.   In a way I am excited to see this develop and experience hopefully some relatively cool summers and different seasons.   Many around me feel that we now have 2 main seasons, winter and summer, and a shorter fall, with little if any spring.  Very interesting if you have the time

Even more interesting:  Look at the January - numbers in the data and where they cluster:  WW I, Korean War, Vietnam War...gulp. Coincidence, I'm sure...

 

Flying:  µV.G.'s

Finally got the 46-year old Musketeer back from an extensive annual inspection that included every safety check ever required, which coming up one age 50 is a few, and having a new windshield (clear) and new side windows (solar gray) installed, new propeller, new tach, along with a vertical card compass (a joy to use!) and those micro vortex generators I mentioned a while back.

 

In case you've forgotten, these are baby shark-teeth looking things that go on the top of wings, bottom of rear stabilator and sides of the rudder.  Those are micro-vortex generators which are Wiki'd here.

 

On an old single-engine plane like ours, they add to the wing's lift by keeping the air attached more closely (boundary layer control) and on a twin engine plane, they have some really amazing traits such as dramatically increasing rudder control which lowers the amount of rudder movement required in the event of a twin-engine pilot's worst nightmare:  one engine power out on takeoff.

 

A couple of interesting notes from a conversation with MicroAeroDynamics' president Charlie White earlier this week:  The company logged their 77th "your product saved our lives" phone call this week.  And on the QT he hints that the company may offer additional µVG products down the road because it seems a plane can pick up 5-knots (or more) by simply adding VG's on top of the airplane behind the windshield a foot, or so, about over the top of a pilot's head. 

 

What this does is smoothes out the airflow along the fuselage and thus, reduces parasitic drag, which means for the same throttle setting, you get more forward motion.  The installation notes on how the STC'd wing VG installation was done on our Mouse are here.

 

Flying Them

The airplane has a completely different "feel" to it. How would you describe a feeling of "glued into a spot in the sky?"

 

Where before the Mouse was highly responsive - super-sensitive to even small control inputs to the point of almost being too responsive - the VGs give the plane a "solid, it's going where you tell it Big Plane" feel.  Instead of bouncing around by normal sunny morning turbulence down low, the plane feels like it's glued to where it belongs in the sky.

 

Landing was just flat ridiculous.  I only used one notch of flaps and came in on short final at 60 MPH and landed in about 550-feet or runway with an 8-knot breeze.  No question in my mind that I could drop that down even further with full flaps and a slower approach speed of say 55 MPH and drop 50-75 feet off that.  I'm after a dependable 640 feet including a 5' fence, which would make any farmer's 40-acre field a safe landing area...I think we're there.

 

Airplanes don't brake as well as cars.  Braking distance for a car from 60 MPH is about 172 feet.  A plane can't do that for a couple of reasons:  First, being a tricycle gear, you've only got brakes on two wheels, but the second problem is that braking hard can't be done until the wing slows enough to transfer lots of weight on the wheels.  Otherwise, your tires chirp and that's the sound of money burning off your tire tread. 

 

Just as I made my first STOL landing on runway 18 at KPSN Thursday, wouldn't you know it?  Taxiway Alfa was closed for paving?  So I ended up having to taxi 3,000 feet down to the next exit. I could have landed a King Air with no flaps and made that one.... oh well.

 

Still, a way different feel to the plane - Sky Glue - far more stable and now it does "hands off" flying like it should, has a fair bit more nose-down attitude in cruise, and a ton more rudder and stabilator authority at low speeds (like landing flare and touchdown). A bit higher rate of climb, and a comfortable 120 MPH at 2,350 RPM.

 

Would I do it again?  Hell yes.  Anything you can do to stack the odds in your favor, boating, driving, or flying, or whatever risks you take, ought to be done.  Life's too much fun to make an early exit because you cheap-out on the wrong things.  People do it all the time, or course, but that doesn't make it wise.

 

And for our reader with an older Baron?  Seems to me that lowering the minimum controllable airspeed by 10-knots for an engine outage might be a good investment, but we all get to set our own spending priorities.

 

Around the Ranch:  Calendars

"Hi George, this is your dentist's office...reminding you Elaine has a 1:50 tooth cleaning Monday."

 

"Yep, she got the voicemail this morning....and I reminded here again about it."

 

"That's no nice you help each other like that..."

 

"You mean reminding here about what time on Monday?"

 

"Yes..."

 

"Say, you don't happen to know what day this is, do you?"

 

 

Write when you break even: george@ure.net


Of Interest to Readers:   


Be Sure to Visit:  The UrbanSurvival Amazon store.  Books, computers, software, and outdoor gear.  You're going to buy things on Amazon, so use this handy portal...

 

 

Now on our premium content site: www.peoplenomics.com:

A Round of Financial Golf

I've been looking for a way to teach personal finance lately, because our kids - like so many today - don't have much of a grubstake to get started with.  So this morning I decided to put events into a much more accessible context - playing a round of "financial golf."  Of course, like all golfers, we'll be focused before teeing off on the Rules of the Game and surprisingly, the golf metaphor works out nicely.

 

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(Also)  The "Flip-Side" of Virtual

In Wednesday's report on the future of virtual reality glasses, a new technology which I think had pretty good potential to "pop" (standing 10-feet from a virtual 102" screen is pretty snazzy stuff) which qualifies it as one of our serial get-rich-slowly paths, which usually seems to take years instead of days, but that's another matter.  What matters this morning is that as a friend (Oilman2) told me this week, there's a really horrible side of virtual  and he's been kind enough to share details of how virtual is getting ready to start whacking jobs down in the oil patch.  As usual, before we wade into the grim, we can recap the market and some of the major week ending headlines to see where that points...

 

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 Safer Computing:  Swearing Off Cookies

It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.

 

To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.

 

I am a high-reliability computing kind of guy - and near as I have it figured, the road to a hassle-free computing experience is (like flying an airplane) a matter of going through a proper checklist before popping onto the web:

  • You need an active cookie manager - because sites you visit can put small bits of code on your computer and some of these are designed for Flash, have no expiration, and can really bugger-up the computing experience.  This part gets handled by Maxa Labs' product which on my system says 184,380 cookies have been removed, 73,881 "web bugs" which can track movement from site to site and such, and I have only 10-active cookies.

  • Second thing you need is a good antivirus program - and I happen to really like Avira's Antivir pro.

  • Then you need to deal with Malware  so for this Malware bytes is updated and run daily.

  • And last, though certainly not least is the firewall and the one in Win 7 works fine.

Like anything in computers, updates are critical so before work every morning, the computer does its update ritual - Check of Maxa (5.3.02 is current) Avira, and Malware bytes. 

 

Toss in a good bit of common sense (example:  Don't open email purporting to be from UPS, IRS, the US Post Office, or anything else that even has a hint of fishy odor to it) and first thing you know, the internet's actually a useful tool.

      

"Live on $10,000" A Year

Having a hard time making ends meet?  (Like who isn't, right?)  A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"

 

 Buy Now

 

It's an automatic download.  It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left.  A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too.....  Click here for the index and details.

 

Do Tell

Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email.  - Thanks!

----

Last week's report is always here.

 


Thursday April 19, 2012

Government's "Space Weather" Page

I'll admit that sometimes we get a little wonky, living as we do usually 10-minutes to 10-years in advance of many secular events, but more than one reader who thought we were a bit "over-the-top" on worries about Sun-based events like EMP and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are having to rethink a bit since the government's own Ready.gov site now featuresa a "Space Weather" Page.

 

As we have mentioned many times, and now the government site, too, mentions the Carrington event in September of 1859, and (again much as we have speculated on previously) the experts behind Ready.gov list pretty much the same kinds of threats that we see should a modern replay be at hand as Solar Cycle 24 peaks over the next year and a half:

•Loss of water and wastewater distribution systems

•Loss of perishable foods and medications

•Loss of heating/air conditioning and electrical lighting systems

•Loss of computer systems, telephone systems, and communications systems (including disruptions in airline flights, satellite networks and GPS services)

•Loss of public transportation systems

•Loss of fuel distribution systems and fuel pipelines

•Loss of all electrical systems that do not have back-up power

None of which is unmanageable, except for the grid part, since large HV distribution system transformers don't grow on trees, and come to think of it, I don't know if we make many of them here in the former industrial power once called America. 

 

My point for starting off on this sobering note is simple: As one reader said, "It's not a good sign when ready.gov is telling you to prepare for space weather."

 

We can skip all the Kafka-esque and double-binds that go with being a nutjob when I write about prepping on the one hand, while government's got pages like this up, on the other.  I know there's a line between prepping and hoarding, but would someone please point me to the distinction in governese?

 

I think prepping is when it's well in advance of events and hoarding is in reaction to a specific event, but damned if I can find a CFR or federal policy guidance on that...which leaves an uncomfortably wide range open to interpretation, don'tcha think?

 

Another Dart on Market Crash

"It" starts over the next week.  'It" being the huge decline which, if I have the numbers right, should lead to a retest of the 2009 lows, and yes, I am 100% short with both dollars we have in markets. 

 

I don't think I've mentioned the work of the "Economic Fractalist" for a while, but we still keep in touch and I don't think he'd mind me sharing this:

• George, this is 'it'

 

18 April 2012 Saturation Macroeconomics: The Great Nonlinear Crash: The DAX: 24/60/48/39 of 39-40 weeks :: x/2.5x/2x/1.6x

 

Equities are the asset-money-debt system's favored tax advantaged asset. Their valuations have gone to their extreme saturation time limits.

 

All the buyers are in the markets. The financial industry's press releases have encouraged maximum participation.

 

Within the next 3-5 trading days denominated in hours, the debt-money-asset system -- bound by its intrinsic time dependent quantum mathematical laws which relate to a finite limit of bad nonrefundable debt relative to macroeconomic system's money, good debt, and system assets' fluctuating cumulative valuation, the latter which in turn are denominated in cumulative good debt, money, and existing non defaulted bad debt -- will undergo a great transitional crash resulting in a historical nonlinear collapse in valuation of commodities and equities with the exception of long term US debt instruments futures which will see historical 150 year low interest and inverse high valuations.

 

For the Wilshire the final pathway is 18/36/31 of 34 to 36 trading days.

 

For the final 34-36 days, 2 fractals are apparent: a 4/10/8/6 :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal follow by a 2/4/3 of 4/3 day fractal.

 

This would bring the sequence to the 34th day of the 18/36/34 to 36 day sequence.

 

While this could be the final pathway, an additional final sequence of 2/4-5/4/3 hours is possible with the transitional crash confined to the last 3 hour fractal.

Now, as I told Peoplenomics readers yesterday, Robin Landry's work, specifically his weekly indicator, has rolled over, and the kind of timeframe we're talking here - with options expiration of index options today, and stock options tomorrow - could starting next week turn into one of the most ugly in history examples of "Sell in May and go away..."

 

We shall see, but when I peeked this morning, the US markets were firm, but after markets get through options, next week could get mighty interesting...This is not investment advice, although the 50-cents, or whatever it is we have in inflation-indexed Treasury bonds feels safe. 

 

Another reader fills us in on the rumor mill:

"Rumor has it the Federal Reserve Bank has pumped over $2 trillion into the Euro LTRO in past several weeks alone to stop the Spanish and Italian Banks from declaring insolvency. The next three years are going to be interesting for the grand Fiat Currency Experiment. "

Since the Baltic Dry is up to 1,000 and change, a reasonable outlook might include a May-June decline of some frightening size and then a rally into the September-October period in anticipation of elections.  Then further declines become possible, but we will await hints in that direction from the BDI and other indicators.

---

About the biggest economic news, later today will be leading economic indicators (LEI) which we are guessing is an anagram.

 

Love of Double-Standards

Here a week ago, or so, the whole world was treated to speculation that North Korea was terribly oh, so dangerous, because they held a long-range missile test.

 

Yet here, this morning, we read how India has launched a missile which could hit Beijing.  Nary a peep from the peaceniks about this one, though.  Missiles which could target Pakistan seem to be OK, while those which could be pointed the other way, seem not.  Check.

---

On the other hand, there's a report that China is not too happy with the NK's latest round of testosterone-driven missiling and nuke test planning.  So much so, that China has stopped sending defectors back to North Korea...

---

And speaking of refugees, the number fleeing Syria is up to 160,000 which seems likely to grow.

 

Quake Watch

While we're waiting to see if a Big One shows up this weekend in the 21-24 kind of range, you did notice that a volcano is popping off in Mexico?  Also, lots of small quakes in the Puerto Rico area...so something is moving down that-a-way.

 

Open Mouth, Insert...

Ted Nugent made some comments at the NRA convention, reports the Washington Post this morning that has the Secret Service planning to chat with him.

---

Wonder if he could move the interview to Colombia?

 

Think Big Department

So, how does a small town in Illinois manage to lose an estimated $30-million?  Details here, but like Madoff, seems to be proof again that there really is something to the magic of thinking big that doesn't have much to do with the morality of a thing...

 

Exxon's Oh-oh

Seems like the Exxon-Mobil folks have gotten on the wrong side of the Iraqi government for buying oil from the northern self-ruled folks.

----

Is there anyone left who still thinks that war was not about oil? ;-)

 

Misplaced Paranoia Dept.

A lot of press seems to be going to the story that come 2015, there will be car data recorders placed in vehicles.

 

I'm not sure why anyone should care:  Having an electronic record of what happens is not a bad thing...unless you're in the wrong, of course.  And, with actual firm data about the kind of impact speed and directional changes, there will likely be less "wiggle room" for the pain and injury lawyers, and that might reduce payouts which in turn could bring down rates.  No, I didn't use the word likely did I?

 

Besides, having transportation systems with speed logging is also so wide-spread as to be ridiculous:  Trucks are using electronic reporting to avoid long layovers at Weigh Stations, and if I get my altitude off more than 200-feet while flying the Mouse, ATC is going to ask me "12-Lima, what are you doing?"   Air Traffic conversations are recorded, and I've even gone so far as to install a cheap digital audio recorder as a cockpit voice recorder (CVR) for both training and documenting in-flight decisions.

 

You do know that 9-1-1- calls are recorded, right?

 

So when I read stories about the use of data recorders with terms like 'big brother' in them, I gotta ask what such worriers are doing that they don't want Big Brother to find out about?  Honest people have nothing to fear...at least for now.  And as long as I manage the data to my benefit...WTF?

 

Like fear of "Smart Meters" we have simply got to hold out paranoia in check sometimes.  If you really want something to worry about, consider that everything you buy at the grocery store with one of those discount cards lives in a computer somewhere - and so if someone ever wanted to (assuming they could get a warrant) you could find even your grocery bills revealing things like that jug of Chianti you bought last week...third one this month, wasn't it?

 

Besides, we hear from insiders that cars can already be turned off by satellite and we're just waiting for the federal law which will make it a crime to put foil over the nav-system antenna on cars...

 

So pill up and worry less.  Besides, if all that ever changes, consider this next story...

 

The "Man Who Quit Money"

Good BBC Magazine piece if you have video....There really is another path, not one that's real appealing, but since we may all go there regardless...  More in the book: The Man Who Quit Money over at Amazon -$10 bucks and change, also on Kindle...

 

I'm left pondering why the book on quitting money isn't free, but my mind just runs in those kinds of circles.

 

Coping:  Dear Microsoft Support

I found out last year that I write more than most people, including writers, who near as I can tell average about 5,000-8,000 words per week.  Not that this is entirely new...a software documentation writer I used to know told me once that 2-3 pages per day of good technical documentation is good.

 

My output runs about three to four times that, and between client work and so forth, I was running about 20,000 words per week last year, and last week, my workaholism screamed to north of 26,000 words. 

 

Not to complain, though: I love what I do.

 

"What does this have to do with Microsoft support?" you're wondering... 

 

Glad you're following along.  Here's how it concerns Microsoft:  This is a five month old wireless keyboard with Microsoft's name on it:

 

 

Say, I'm quite a right-thumb-spacer, aren't I?

 

A quick inspection shows that about half of the keys are now illegible and this is after only about four months of use.  My traveling keyboard, of about the same vintage (I order your Microsoft 3000 V2.0 series wireless keyboards with matching mouse and dongle in pairs or threes every four months, or so and it's looking like it's getting to be that time again.  

 

I got a few minutes of lost productivity last week because I couldn't remember where the R, E, and T keys were, and it was all part of a very complicated website logon very early in the morning when neither brain, nor eyes were completely engaged.

 

Which gets me to my first suggestion:  Can Microsoft (please God?) make a keyboard with inlaid lettering which will not wear out until the keys themselves have been worn down to little nubbins?  It's not that I mind the price Amazon gets for you Microsoft Wireless Desktop 3000 ($44 and change) which comes here with free shipping thanks to Amazon Prime.

 

What bothers me is that I think I have a reasonable grasp of business and figure that the increased cost of durable (last forever keys) would slow your repeat business, but isn't there a shred of "greenie" - good for the environment- up there in Redmond, these days?

 

I don't expect you to make any sacrifice...especially on profits...we all know that the bill of materials cost is about doubled by the retailers, so you guys are maybe out the door at $23 on these?  And since the "out the door cost" is many such products is in the 2.3-2.5 times bill of materials (BOM), I'm just guessing you guys have about $10 bucks in parts.

 

Now, of this (stop me if this gets boring) I figure the key chicklets are going to be about 30-cents worth.

 

I'll grant you that a serious inlaid key would quadruple this, to say $1.20. but have I got a plan for you!  Mark up the keys and include the profit you would have made on the lack of an additional keyboard sale.

 

Let me break it down for you:  Quadruple the cost of the keys (making them truly permanent) to bring the BOM up 90-cents then add $8 pure profit for the lost replacement keyboard sale and you could then sell  this out the door for $35-$40 to Jeff Bezos' guys across town.

 

Why not call it the 1300-GX Model?  I just made up the number, but the GX just between us would be the George eXtended-wear model.  A bold (fluorescent?) green line on it to denote it as a "Microsoft Green Line" product would be spiffy and help up-sell the kids.  Pack those new lithium long-life AA batteries for the mouse so I don't have to make a trip to town for those.

 

Amazon could mark it up by the same margin, of course, and maybe get it out the door with free Prime shipping for only $80, instead of the double-the-price $90 of the basic 3000 model.

 

Why would they do that?  Because I live in the boonies, want quality stuff, and they will save on their total shipping costs eliminating a Prime billing from UPS....you tracking with me?  Think of the green angles to this...and the genuine savings over time.  Don't tell the Amazon guys this, but we're so far off in the outback of East Texas that sometimes I'll order some bulky $5 do-dad with free shipping just so we can say "Hi!" to Brent our UPS driver.  The only other regular human contact out this way is Harvey, the postman. Big doings here month before last when a strange car was seen, too.

 

But back to point, I just bet there's a boatload of high keyboard-use people around who would buy these longer-legible keyboards...paralegals come to mind, students, and so forth.  DragonSpeak is fine for some, but not in cube-land or where other ears can hear...client confidentiality and such, right?

 

Thanks for your time...

 

P.S.  When are you going to put a separate "copy" key and a separate "paste" key back on the left side like ya'll had on of your old media series keyboards?  I realize it probably made far too much sense, but please put me on the list for that innovation, too.  In a real work environment, the camera button, or the zoom-in/out keys are a waste. Think about a Skype key, too, and can you build a dongle for the Outlook calendar to run the coffeemaker?  -G

 

Keep an Eye on Drought

Oh, sure, the drought has been banished from Texas for a while, but not everywhere.  A reader up the road a short piece sends this:

"Greets, George. A quick note on a locally-observed phenomenon:

I just finished mowing my yard for the third time, this year. This is both interesting, and unprecedented. I live in the middle of the "Breadbasket" -- been intelligently watching the weather for nigh-onto 50 years and I've a very good idea of what's normal -- This year ain't it!

I've lived in my current residence for 26 years. In the 26 springs that've passed, I've never mowed my yard, in its entirety, before June first, because I've never not had 800ft˛ of lawn under water and another 300ft˛ that's too swampy to navigate; never, that is, until this year. While temperatures are unremarkable, we're at 7ľ" of precipitation on the year (about 3" low), but we're at .70" for April, as of the 19th, and we ought to be at 2.70" right now. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts much lower-than-normal precipitation from December, 2011, through August of 2012; then higher-than-normal precip. totals for Sept.-Oct. (end of their 2011 prediction cycle.) So far, their precipitation predictions are panning out.

The weather feels like the last week of June. Don't get me wrong, temps. are seasonal (we've freeze warnings for the weekend) but precipitation, humidity, and foliage maturity "feel" like the summer solstice is upon us. Could this be a year when the "Nation's Breadbasket" has no growing season?

If OFA's predictions are close (and I believe they will be), it'd be a prime example of universal wryrony that we could come close to our 40.9" yearly precipitation average, yet be in a severe drought during the growing season. I haven't listened to the area farm reports yet this year, but when I do, I'm expecting to hear the dreaded "d-word" featured prominently. The aware person might want to take this into account when they're planning a food or storage budget. Just sayin'..."

We're actually running about two inches ahead of normal down here in East Texas, but I see the problem further uphill in the breadbasket. 

 

One more thing to keep an eye on:  My commodity guy, JB over at www.fortwealth.com says to keep track of China, which is moving in to buy corn now...

 

A Lesson in Southern Finance

Being as how we live in the South, there's a certain kind of joke that floats around involving the Good 'Ol Boys down this way.  A fine lesson in "Southern finance" showed in the an email this morning:

He was from South Carolina , and he needed a loan, so.......

He walked into a bank in New York City and asked for the loan officer. He told the loan officer that he was going to Paris for an international redneck festival for two weeks and needed to borrow $5,000 and that he was not a depositor of the bank.

The bank officer told him that the bank would need some form of security for the loan, so the Redneck handed over the keys to a new Ferrari. The car was parked on the street in front of the bank. The Redneck produced the title and everything checked out. The loan officer agreed to hold the car as collateral for the loan and apologized for having to charge 12% interest. Later, the bank's president and its officers all enjoyed a good laugh at the Redneck from the south for using a $250,000 Ferrari as collateral for a $5,000 loan.

An employee of the bank then drove the Ferrari into the bank's private underground garage and parked it. Two weeks later, the Redneck returned, repaid the $5,000 and the interest of $23.07.

The loan officer said, "Sir, we are very happy to have had your business, and this transaction has worked out very nicely, but we are a little puzzled. While you were away, we checked you out on Dunn & Bradstreet and found that you are a Distinguished Alumni from the University of South Carolina , a highly sophisticated investor and Multi-Millionaire with real estate and financial interests all over the world. Your investments include a large number of wind turbines around Sweetwater , Texas . What puzzles us is, why would you bother to borrow $5,000?"

The good 'ole boy replied, "Where else in New York City can I park my car for two weeks for only $23.07 and expect it to be there when I return?" 

OK, posting early today because I couldn't sleep....(I'll explain in tomorrow's column)...

 


Wednesday April 18, 2012

The Wednesday Reader Note

Future's are pointing to a fall-back of the market at the open, not surprising after yesterday's pop.  But remember, new all-time highs are still almost a thousand higher than here.  More in this morning's Peoplenomics report which starts like so...

 

The Retirement Planning & Preservation Problem

Elaine and I have been eyeing a very difficult problem - the ugly one spelled out over at the Strategic Living site  this morning...that being whether people have lost the ability to retire, because it seems to me like we're not getting much closer to "the Dream."  Worse, and as I spell out in "Working to Death" the numbers seem to be pointing toward a future where working to 70 - and well beyond - seems to be peeking out of the data.  The role of Peoplenomics is "OK, what do we do about it?"  We'll start tackling that one this morning with a few "get-started" thoughts, but this is a "toughie."  Now, on to the earthquake problem where something new has popped up:

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More on this here site in the morning usual time, yada yada...


Tuesday April 17, 2012

Lingering Questions About Housing

First, the long-term context:  Remember that we have been looking at the reports on housing from Case Shiller/S&P and have been repeatedly warning that the prices could resume their downward move and get cheaper than the recently announced return to 2003 housing prices, right?  Well, just out from Census today:

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 747,000. This is 4.5 percent (±1.1%) above the revised February rate of 715,000 and is 30.1 percent (±1.6%) above the March 2011 estimate of 574,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 462,000; this is 3.5 percent (±1.1%) below the revised February figure of 479,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 262,000 in March.

 

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 654,000. This is 5.8 percent (±15.6%)* below the revised February estimate of 694,000, but is 10.3 percent (±14.6%)* above the March 2011 rate of 593,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 462,000; this is 0.2 percent (±12.6%)* below the revised February figure of 463,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 178,000.

 

HOUSING COMPLETIONS

Privately-owned housing completions in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 600,000. This is 4.2 percent (±13.5%)* above the revised February estimate of 576,000 and is 0.5 percent (±15.3%)* above the March 2011 rate of 597,000. Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 440,000; this is 1.4 percent (±12.5%)* above the revised February rate of 434,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 146,000.

Smart money seems to think an increase in permits will mean things picking up this summer, but who's got money to buy a new how when there's so much REO out there?   Quick check of Google shows all kinds of this and that's around foreclosure activity.  Notably, a report that short sales are on the rise.

 

Fed industrial capacity and utilization due out later this morning, but no surprise expected.  Markets look for an upward pop at the open.

 

Pacific Plate Watch

In lieu or our normal line of (economic) inquiry, we begin instead this morning by returning to a familiar theme lately:  Whatzzup with the Pacific Tectonic Plate?  Already today, there has 6.8 shaker down in Papua New Guinea, and a 6.7 temblor about a hundred miles north of Santiago, Chile,

 

In casde you haven't been paying attention, Patrick Geryl's video here about a possible earthquake windown April 21-24 if worth watching:

 

 

 

And a visit to his website, http://www.howtosurvive2012.com/ is always worth the effort.  We still have five days to get into the window Geryl is talking about.

---

So is the data - and these latest quakes something to be worried about?  Maybe.  Our quake data-crunch reader shows what's going on in the 6.0 data since 1973 this way:

 

 

Which means we are tracking for 14 this month and that's before we get to this window this weekend.  Not to spend to much energy on this, but having your earthquake preps up while you read "Quake Expert: Earth is Cracking Up."

 

Poking Ports

About that time of the month for our West Coast Ports reality check.  Long Beach had loaded inbound for the month up 18.27% but for the year they are still down almost 9%.  Port of Los Angeles was up 9.34% compared with year ago, up only 3.23% for the year, though.

 

Up the coast a ways,  Oakland was 8.2% on the inbound, while Seattle and Portland were tardy...no new data since Feb.

 

So, strategically, I'm looking for the the market to be sideways into options this week, a sell in May that will test first 1,340 on the S&P, then maybe down to 1,300 on the S&P, then a summer rally, possibly to new highs, and weakness into the fall and elections.  Just darts, not investment advice.

 

Public Theater

Those GSA housing/relocation scandal hearings resume today - beats only some of the mid-day soaps.  It would be outright entertaining except it's our tax money that was squandered.

 

March to War

Spain and Argentina have heated up the battle of words as a Spanish oil outfit in Argentina has been nationalized

 

Hmmm...we'll take the oil outfit, half the Falklands, and whatever is behind Curtain #2, then...

 

Boulder Goes to Pot

Yes, the University of Bolder really is planning to spray (stinking) fish fertilizer in order to  prevent the annual "smoke in" of de ganj boyz (and grlz).

 

Risk:  15-days of public housing and a $100-buck fine, per NORML.  Plus whatever special "made up" charges come along.  Remind me not to be in Boulder Friday.

 

Coping: FDA Backs Renting Your Life/Marketing Socialism

Had an interesting even happen recently:  Remember my little gout episode of a week, or so back?  Well, I got the doc to give me a prescript for colchicine.

 

Now, mind you I have been cursed by gout, which feels more or less like being kicked in the nuts for several days non-stop at whatever joint comes down with the cursed affliction, since age 25-old so.  My son, the EMT healthy jogger, clean living kid had had it, too, so it's just one of those inherited DNA things and we cope.  Luck of the draw, kind of thing.

 

Anyway, last time I bought colchicine it was something like 150-pills online for $56-bucks, but of this, fully $40 was for overnighting it in from Europe.  Not bad, but ever since then I have been getting calls every two-days from some boiler room outfit in bum-buck India asking me to refill it.

 

Sick of the phone ringing (being a semi-recluse has its percs) I decided to source locally.  Boy, was that a poopy idea. Damn pills 40-of them, set me back $232 and change.

 

"WTF?" I asked the dispenser of pills and bad news.

 

"Oh, there was some kind of patent deal I think and the generic is no longer available."

 

All of which gets me more than slightly hot under the collar:  This is crazy.  What should be in the $20-range is now 10-times that, which gets me to the point of this morning's review of the facts:

 

Let's see what Wikipedia has to say about this, shall we?

"As a drug predating the FDA, colchicine was sold in the United States as a generic drug for many years. In 2009, the FDA approved colchicine for gout flares, awarding Colcrys a three-year term of market exclusivity, prohibiting generic sales, and increasing the price of the drug from $0.09 to $4.85 per tablet.[23][24][25]

Numerous consensus guidelines, and previous randomized controlled trials, had concluded that colchicine is effective for acute flares of gouty arthritis. However, as of 2006, the drug was not formally approved by the FDA, owing to the lack of a conclusive randomized control trial (RCT). That year, the FDA started their "Unapproved Drugs Initiative", through which they sought more rigorous testing of efficacy and safety of colchicine and other unapproved drugs on the market.[26] In exchange for paying for the costly testing, the FDA gave URL Pharma three years of market exclusivity for its Colcrys brand,[27] under the Hatch-Waxman Act, based in part on URL-funded research in 2007, including pharmacokinetic studies and a randomized control trial with 185 patients with acute gout. URL Pharma also received seven years of market exclusivity for Colcrys in treatment of familial Mediterranean fever, under the Orphan Drug Law. URL Pharma then raised the price per tablet from $0.09 to $4.85 and sued to remove other versions from the market, increasing annual costs for the drug to U.S. state Medicaid programs from $1 million to $50 million. (In a similar case, thalidomide was approved in 1998 as an orphan drug for leprosy and in 2006 for multiple myeloma.)[28]

In April 2010, in an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), A.S. Kesselheim and D.H. Solomon said that the rewards of this legislation are not calibrated to the quality or value of the information produced, that there is no evidence of meaningful improvement to public health, that it would be much less expensive for the FDA or National Institutes of Health to pay for trials themselves on widely available drugs such as colchicine, and that the cost burden falls primarily on patients or their insurers.[28] URL Pharma posted a detailed rebuttal of the NEJM editorial.[29]

In September 2010, the FDA ordered a halt to marketing of unapproved single-ingredient oral colchicine.

"What's really going on, you think, George?"

 

Personally?  I think corporate interests have taken over the FDA and are instituting policies to extract as much money as possible from people in return for needed medication, even to the point out outlawing a perfectly good generic and allowing a company to get a generic off the market. 

 

But I want to focus on the really dangerous part:  How the FDA is allowing the variable tariffing of medicines! 

 

Yes, the  pharma outfit involved does have a web site which deals with the cost issue here.

 

And, to be sure, there are discounts...but sadly for me, I still get to pay $5.80 per pill for something that's a frigging generic, for cryin out loud.  Do I get a break?  Nope - I made too much money last year. 

 

The dangerous chasm the FDA has crossed however, is - as I see it -  playing into the whole "rent your life from corporate owners" migration path of that corporate interests of all stripes seem  to be following and although exemplified here by allowing a pharmaceutical company to engage in variable pricing, there are broader implications. 

 

Here's how it pencils out with drug pricing assistance (by income):  Remember: As a generic, these pills had a cost of about 9-cents each.

  • Under 3-times the federal poverty rate:  FREE DRUGS

  • Up to 4-times the federal poverty rate:  $0.166 per pill - still a 50% increase over what the generic cost was before the FDA got involved.

  • Up to six times the federal poverty rate?  $1.20 per pill.

  • And in my income bracket?  $5.80 per pill.

This kind of regulatory malfeasance is unacceptable and Congress ought to reform the FDA with some very strict financial interest regulations, the first of which would be what I call "The Ure Amendment."

 

This would simply make it illegal for any government regulator to hold a position in any regulated company, or its suppliers, vendors, or consultants for a minimum of 10-years after termination of government service.  Further, it would ban owning stock in any regulated company, or its suppliers, vendorts, or consultants and just for frosting, let's throw in reporting all historical involvement with all new companies coming to market for the 10-years prior to first regulatory event and 10-years after last day of government service.

 

That might clean up the "captive regulator" part.  Got that in a number of areas, like the SEC, CFTC, and so forth.  A simple Clean Up America Act.

 

You see, the danger of government-sponsored differential pricing is this:  How would you like to walk in to the local Chevy dealership and buy a car only to discover than the price you paid for the car would depend on how much money you made?  I'm gonna show you how this would work with the same price spreads used by the FDA in the colchicine anti-generic case:

 

Made only $20,000 of taxable income?  Here's a nice economy car...free!  "We know you need to get a job, and the car is necessary to get there....say, want some gasoline vouchers, too?"

 

Say you make $100,000:  For you, same car, same terms of delivery and you get stuck for $40,000.  Want the free oil changes for life for an additional $150?

 

In a higher income bracket? Oh, that car for that Ure guy? It's actually $696,278 for him.  Yeah, sure, cheap economy car, but let's beat up George because he works 70-hours per week. 

 

I shit you not, these are the kinds of spreads the FDA is allowing - but as I have warned many times before, there is what Buckminster Fuller called a Grunch/corporate game at a much higher level involved here.  I call it corporate-marketing socialism and it's in play globally right now, before your very eyes.  Poor?  Need a cell phone voucher?

 

Here's how marketing socialism is evolving:

  • In a simple world, all goods have a defined unit cost based on production run.  If it costs $1,000,000 to make 1,000,000 units then toss in something for profit  (half a million, or so) and the sales price of something is $1.50 at the wholesale level.  This gets marked up for the distribution costs, and by the time you get out to the final retail price runs about 2.34 times the fully loaded bill of materials at the manufacturing level (laden BOM).  That's about where it comes in for most products at a Big Box store.

  • Marketing socialism, which the FDA has tacitly endorsed says (essentially) that as long as a company can come up with a plan the FDA can defend to Congress or grand juries, (example: Free drugs for poor) then they can promote differential treatment of classes at discriminating price differentials which would embarrass the IRS.

Fine, so where does this go next?  Ah! Keep your eyes peeled. 

 

We know, for example, that rampant socialism is already loose in higher education, too. The same college degrees, but depending on income while attending, the amount of student loan debt owed by the graduate at the end of college will be wildly different depending on income levels at the start.  So take that as example number two in government-backed differential pricing.

 

I'm sure my colleagues in higher education will argue that the Pell Grant program, among others, is necessary to encourage low-income people to get into college - I have no problem with that.  EXCEPT: What I do have a problem with is the point where "equality" is measured.  Traditional academics, you see, measure at the beginning of the cohort (day one, year one) rather than measure and equalize the completing cohort (at graduation day).  Good in poor, grant up, and graduate with less debt that someone who goes in middle income and comes out with four-years Pell Grant offset ($22,000 of free money under current regs).

 

Don't know as you've figured this out:  I'm a real proponent of flat taxes, to. Don't mind paying taxes as they are, mind you, but I vote against anyone who's not a flat tax advocate, since equal protection demands flat taxes.  Equal protection also says college debt ought to be equalized on the back end, and that I should have less than a buck a pill for colchicine, too. 

 

If there's social change needed?  So make it on the spending side...spends the same either way.  One approach is more equal, however.  Flat tax!

 

IF America is to go forward, I think we need a much crisper approach to measuring of access and equality...and in drugs, there should be breaks for low income people, of course.  But they breaks shaould track closer to IRTS brackets, not what we've got going now.

 

In the case of my colchicine, a family of four can get it for $0.166 per pill, then a family at 2X that income level ought to pay proportionately $0.33 per pill...not a buck-something, and at 8X that rate, the limit ought to be 8X $0.166 per pill ($1.33 per pill) NOT the $5.80 I'm  stuck with.  I don't mind paying, but I don't do well with financial rape.  Tend to get angry.

 

Is there a way to fight this?  I think so - maybe - slim chance, though.  One thought is for an interest group (AARP, you listening?) to consider a class action suit under the 14th Amendment's equal protections, since if all men are created equal (along with women, it goes without saying) how is it the FDA has taken on a Robbing Hoods of socialism role here?

 

A second avenue to bring back rational government would be for Americans to demand a simple Constitutional amendment which would prohibit the patenting of any aspect of any device, chemical, or life-form that existed first in nature. 

 

You see, in the case of colchicine, the active ingredient in this particular gout medication was originally an extract of the Autumn Crocus plant.  Copying Nature ought to be profitable, but non-exclusive!  It's what the market will pay, dammit!

 

Think about it!  Life ain't patentable - it's all prior art.  All the lawyering and weasel-wording in the world doesn't change Prior Art. Unless you're a Big Corp, of course, fat checkbook ready and golden parachutes for captive reggers.

 

Sadly, we know all that...I'm just trying to (pardon this) Round-Up some data for you to consider, since we have a bright future ahead as a country if we can just get some lawyers and regulators to stand up for human interests over corporate interests.  Unfortunately, we're the humans are the low bidders in this.

 

Oh, a last point:  Is further colchicine study needed?  PubMed shows 17,655 scholarly/doctorlies on this.  So with this much data out there, I've have to side with the New England Journal of Medicine getting this part right, per that Wikipedia entry: "... the rewards of this legislation are not calibrated to the quality or value of the information produced."

 

Ab-so-frigging-lootly. At least the NEJM got good medicine right.  Oh, and good economics, too.  I'm thinking the colchine folks oughta at least offer a coupon for something to go with their stiff bills.  A bottle of Astroglide, maybe?

 

Medicine is Nuts, II

A new testicular cancer treatment is showing perfect results in 9 of 10 men tested on says a report in the UK's Telegraph.

 

"Warning! Warning, Will Rogers!"  Since we all know the FDA is on the hip of Big Pharma, care to place any side bets on how long this one will be kept off the market in the US since there's so much drug money involved?

 

FMTT:  I figure minimum 3-years, maybe five.  As I see it, it's gonna come down to who's got more of a flash roll:  The equipment makers or the druggies?  Flash rolls at the ready?

 

This is the kind of thing where with good results already in, the new approach should be in clinicals next week and approved within a year. How long does emailing the treatmnent protocol take?  30-seconds?

 

But hey! What's a few more dead men?  Give the druggies some time to reposition and obstruct....

 

Move the FDA to eBay is my next idea...Bet eBay could even set up a "Buy government" category to go with our previous idea...bidding on Congress.

 

40+ years of journalism experience suggests paradigm shifts not accompanied by some new money angle - don't happen. 

 


Monday April 16, 2012

About Retail Spending

I have to admit to being a little nervous about the rate of retail sales, for two reasons, really.  One is the recent Consumer Debt report from the Fed (which for marketing purposes they insist on calling "Credit") which shows that people are sitting on the wallets a bit more.  The second reason is that word's out that growth in China is down to only 8.1% in Q1, down from 8.9% annualized in Q4.

 

OK, the envelope (or .PDF equivalent) please?

"The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $411.1 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 6.5 percent (±0.7%) above March 2011. Total sales for the January through March 2012 period were up 6.4 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January to February 2012 percent change was revised from 1.1 percent (±0.5) to 1.0 percent (±0.2%).

 

Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from February 2012 and 6.5 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers sales were up 14.1 percent (±2.6%) from March 2011 and nonstore retailers were up 9.3 percent (±3.0%) from last year."

And the chart looks really sound and the market loves it as we head to an upside opening after last week's 2% decline for last week.

 

But wait!  Here comes George in his Mr. Dog-in-the-Manger suit:  "Notice, please, this is all about total dollars, not unit volumes?"  At least in theory, we could see prices going up so fast that a decline in unit-volume sell-through could be masked.  But that's the KIool-Aid served this Monday....yum.   Grape?

 

Norway Killer Trial

...is on (care to guess where?)  Says he did it, claims it was "self-defense" and that only leaves me with one question:  How'd they figure this guy was sane enough to stand trial?

 

Tax Time

Filing deadline is tomorrow night at midnight.  Normally it would fall on April 15th, but that was on a Sunday.  And the reason it's not tonight as this is Emancipation Day...but if we have to file taxes tomorrow, sort of limits the scope of emancipation, doesn't it?

 

Battle For the 'Net

Interesting story about how the Russians are moving to clean off Western influences from the net in their country.  Comes as speculation builds about the Chinese internet kill switch...  Those outages are particularly interesting in light of the footwork going on behind the scenes as Party movers and shakers try to get footing ahead of Party power mchanges this fall...

 

Quaky Time

In the wake of the 8+ earthquakes of last week, a reader sent me this:

Dear George...........I've read the article, "Solar Killshot", with a great deal of interest. I believe that Patrick Geryl may be onto something. What is needed to confirm his hypothesis is,"were there any other groupings of double and triple alignments in period beginning from 1859?". If so, what was the sun's behavior during these groupings of alignments

Funny you should ask:  Another reader sent this:

George, Regarding Geryl’s upcoming date of April 22 (2012 assumed) , there is an alignment forming of Mars, Venus , the Sun, and Uranus. Earth will be just a tad off to the right. Today on Space Weather we can see that 2 new Sun Spots (crackling 1458, and 1459) just came around the horizon. If today is April 15, then there are 7 days until Geryl’s date of alignment. If I recall correctly, that it takes 11 days for a sun spot to travel across the Sun’s surface relative to Earth, then these 2 sun spots should be just off center to the right facing Earth on April 22. Of course there still are a few days remaining for a new sun spot to appear and so as to be directly facing Earth on April 22, but these 2 (1458, 1459) seem to qualify at this moment. So it looks like the stage is being set to test his theory. Also what will be interesting to watch if possible is Sun Spot 1455. If it is still active, it should be rotating to the far side of the Sun and facing Uranus on April 22. Do you know of any way to monitor from the internet the far side of the Sun? Time to wait and watch. Maybe re-read “One Second After”.:

I forgot to pass on Patrick's latest note last week (buried, sorry) but here it is:

"Earthquakes and Planetary Alignments with the Earth

April 11, 2012: Earthquake of 8.7 on the Richter scale

Today (11th- g) Earth – Mars and Neptune  are nearly lined up... but not perfect...  See my questions below...

So after finding this... it was easy to make a connection with the other ones...

Listed according to their strenght

May 22, 1960: Earthquake of 9.5 on the Richter scale

May 21st: Mars – Uranus – Mercury lined up (not with the Earth, all the others are with the Earth)

May 22nd: Neptune helio-centric connected with the Earth (this is important because Neptune comes several times back, so the helio-centric connection with the Earth is indeed very important!)

All the following quakes have a Triple Line Up with the Earth...

March 28, 1964: Earthquake of 9.2 on the Richter scale

March 23rd: Venus – Earth – Neptune in one line (few days before the quake... but even bigger alignment coming...)

March 27th – 4 planets lined up: Mars – Mercury - Venus – Uranus (4 planets lined up just before the quake)

March 28th: Jupiter – Mars – Neptune almost lined up

December 26, 2004: Earthquake of 9.1 on the Richter scale

December 27th: Earth – Venus – Mercury lined up

November 4 ,1952: Earthquake of 9.0 on the Richter scale

November 5th: Earth – Mars – Uranus lined up

March 11, 2011: Earthquake of 9.0 on the Richter scale

March 9th: Earth – Mercury and Uranus lined up

January 31, 1906: Earthquake of 8.8 on the Richter scale

February 1 – 2th: Neptune – Earth – Uranus

February 27, 2010: Earthquake of 8.8 on the Richter scale

February 27th: Earth – Mercury – Neptune lined up

March 28, 2005: Eartquake of 8.6 on the Richter scale

March 29th: Earth – Venus – Mercury lined up

August 15, 1950: Earthquake of 8.6 on Richter scale

August 14th – 15th: Earth – Mercury - Saturn

We see Neptune, Mercury and Uranus several times coming back.... I have only one remark.... The quake from today April 11... doesn’t fit completely on an alignment... Normally the alignment with Uranus and Neptune is nearly perfect around April 22... Could there be an even bigger one lurking? Or was this one triggered by the complex alignment that is coming?

Triple Line Ups: April 22, 2012:

Neptune – Earth – Mars

Earth – Mercury – Uranus

Once again coincidences or not? Either way, this is raising many more questions about the cataclysmic events that are predicted for the end of this year...

December 17 – 18, 2012: Triple Line Up of Jupiter – Earth – Mercury

December 21 – 22, 2012: Triple Line Up of Jupiter – Earth – Venus

More on Patrick's www.howtosurvive42012.com website, but doggone interesting stuff going on...I mean if potential world-changing stuff is interesting to you...

---

Speaking of quakes, there was a small one (5.5 or so) in Greece this morning.  We're not sure if this was a quake, or just the banks breaking...

 

Never Stop Selling Bad Policy

My friend Howard Hill pointed out an article you may wish to wade through by Angry bear Mike Kimmel.

 

Might take ytou a few minutes to read and digest it, but go ahead, it's Monday, after all.

 

Reason being that with the re-election of Obama coming into focus, there's a sadly high probability of the republicorps trying to repackage and resell Supply Side economics.  Never mind honest economic thinkers like former Budget Director David Stockman and others have figured it's wrong.

 

This being an election year, any old bandwagon (free lunches and lower taxes promised over this way...) will be hauled out by the political marketers.  In politics, any more, it's not about being honest.  It's all about being elected.

 

Speaking of Which

Lots of headlines around Dick Cheney saying president Obama is an "unmitigated disaster to the country" but hold on for a reality check here:  What would you expect Cheney to say?  That he loves the guy and the republicorps are wrong?  Never gonna happen.

 

What was it my favorite writer said a second ago?  Oh yeah:  It's all about being elected, or in Cheney's case, getting the next republicorp guys in.  But wait: has the ex-Veep Dick forgotten we've been running two-termers in the WH for how long now?  He can't seriously think that's gonna change, can he?

 

Coping: With Patriot Paranoia Problems?

Example #1 

Very interesting thing, being pointed out in a new post today from my friend Gonzalo Lira - in the article "You are Free to Travel - If the IRS Lets You"  and it's all about the little-noticed legislation pending in the form of Senate Bill 1813, which, as the Tea Party Tribune headlines it is about "...giving the IRS power to revoke passports and travel."

 

A trip to the Government Printing Office to see Whatzzup with that finds it initially sounds like anything but a police state full court press:

(a) SHORT TITLE.—This Act may be cited as the 4 ‘‘Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act’’ or 5 the ‘‘MAP–21’’.

I mean, who's not gonna love progress when we're been surrounded by a lack of same since....Clinton time, wasn't it?

 

Anyway, the section which has people upset seems to read about like this:

 

SEC. 40304. REVOCATION OR DENIAL OF PASSPORT IN CASE 14 OF CERTAIN UNPAID TAXES. 15 (a) IN GENERAL.—Subchapter D of chapter 75 of the 16 Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended by adding at 17 the end the following new section: 18 ‘‘SEC. 7345. REVOCATION OR DENIAL OF PASSPORT IN CASE 19 OF CERTAIN TAX DELINQUENCIES. 20 ‘‘(a) IN GENERAL.—If the Secretary receives certifi21 cation by the Commissioner of Internal Revenue that any 22 individual has a seriously delinquent tax debt in an 23 amount in excess of $50,000, the Secretary shall transmit 24 such certification to the Secretary of State for action with 25 respect to denial, revocation, or limitation of a passport 26 pursuant to section 4 of the Act entitled ‘An Act to regu-late the issue and validity of passports, and for other pur2 poses’, approved July 3, 1926 (22 U.S.C. 211a et seq.), 3 commonly known as the ‘Passport Act of 1926’. 4 ‘‘(b) SERIOUSLY DELINQUENT TAX DEBT.—For pur5 poses of this section, the term ‘seriously delinquent tax 6 debt’ means an outstanding debt under this title for which 7 a notice of lien has been filed in public records pursuant 8 to section 6323 or a notice of levy has been filed pursuant 9 to section 6331, except that such term does not include— 10 ‘‘(1) a debt that is being paid in a timely man11 ner pursuant to an agreement under section 6159 or 12 7122, and 13 ‘‘(2) a debt with respect to which collection is 14 suspended because a collection due process hearing 15 under section 6330, or relief under subsection (b), 16 (c), or (f) of section 6015, is requested or pending. 17 ‘‘(c) ADJUSTMENT FOR INFLATION.—In the case of 18 a calendar year beginning after 2012, the dollar amount 19 in subsection (a) shall be increased by an amount equal 20 to— 21 ‘‘(1) such dollar amount, multiplied by 22 ‘‘(2) the cost-of-living adjustment determined 23 under section 1(f)(3) for the calendar year, deter24 mined by substituting ‘calendar year 2011’ for ‘cal25 endar year 1992’ in subparagraph (B) thereof.  1 If any amount as adjusted under the preceding sentence 2 is not a multiple of $1,000, such amount shall be rounded 3 to the next highest multiple of $1,000.’’. 4 (b) CLERICAL AMENDMENT.—The table of sections 5 for subchapter D of chapter 75 of the Internal Revenue 6 Code of 1986 is amended by adding at the end the fol7 lowing new item: ‘‘Sec. 7345. Revocation or denial of passport in case of certain tax delinquencies.’’. 8 (c)

 

AUTHORITY FOR INFORMATION SHARING.— 9 (1) IN GENERAL.—

Subsection (l) of section 10 6103 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is 11 amended by adding at the end the following new 12 paragraph: 13 ‘‘(23) DISCLOSURE OF RETURN INFORMATION 14 TO DEPARTMENT OF STATE FOR PURPOSES OF PASS15 PORT REVOCATION UNDER SECTION 7345.— 16 ‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The Secretary shall, 17 upon receiving a certification described in sec18 tion 7345, disclose to the Secretary of State re19 turn information with respect to a taxpayer who 20 has a seriously delinquent tax debt described in 21 such section. Such return information shall be 22 limited to— 23 ‘‘(i) the taxpayer identity information 24 with respect to such taxpayer, and  ‘‘(ii) the amount of such seriously de2 linquent tax debt. 3 ‘‘(B) RESTRICTION ON DISCLOSURE.—Re4 turn information disclosed under subparagraph 5 (A) may be used by officers and employees of 6 the Department of State for the purposes of, 7 and to the extent necessary in, carrying out the 8 requirements of section 4 of the Act entitled 9 ‘An Act to regulate the issue and validity of 10 passports, and for other purposes’, approved 11 July 3, 1926 (22 U.S.C. 211a et seq.), com12 monly known as the ‘Passport Act of 1926’.’’. 13 (2) CONFORMING AMENDMENT.—Paragraph (4) 14 of section 6103(p) of such Code is amended by strik15 ing ‘‘or (22)’’ each place it appears in subparagraph 16 (F)(ii) and in the matter preceding subparagraph 17 (A) and inserting ‘‘(22), or (23)’’.

 

18 (d) REVOCATION AUTHORIZATION.—The Act entitled 19 ‘‘An Act to regulate the issue and validity of passports, 20 and for other purposes’’, approved July 3, 1926 (22 21 U.S.C. 211a et seq.), commonly known as the ‘‘Passport 22 Act of 1926’’, is amended by adding at the end the fol23 lowing: 24 ‘‘SEC. 4. AUTHORITY TO DENY OR REVOKE PASSPORT. 25 ‘‘(a) INELIGIBILITY.—

‘‘(1) ISSUANCE.—Except as provided under 2 subsection (b), upon receiving a certification de3 scribed in section 7345 of the Internal Revenue 4 Code of 1986 from the Secretary of the Treasury, 5 the Secretary of State may not issue a passport or 6 passport card to any individual who has a seriously 7 delinquent tax debt described in such section. 8 ‘‘(2) REVOCATION.—The Secretary of State 9 shall revoke a passport or passport card previously 10 issued to any individual described in subparagraph 11 (A). 12 ‘‘(b) EXCEPTIONS.— 13 ‘‘(1) EMERGENCY AND HUMANITARIAN SITUA14 TIONS.—Notwithstanding subsection (a), the Sec15 retary of State may issue a passport or passport 16 card, in emergency circumstances or for humani17 tarian reasons, to an individual described in sub18 section (a)(1). 19 ‘‘(2) LIMITATION FOR RETURN TO UNITED 20 STATES.—Notwithstanding subsection (a)(2), the 21 Secretary of State, before revocation, may— 22 ‘‘(A) limit a previously issued passport or 23 passport card only for return travel to the 24 United States; or

 ‘‘(B) issue a limited passport or passport 2 card that only permits return travel to the 3 United States.’’. 4 (e) EFFECTIVE DATE.—The amendments made by 5 this section shall take effect on January 1, 2013.

Now, I don't claim to be a lawyer, but what the bill seems to say is that there's only very limited grounds for denial of a passport...and that would be someone who has gotten themselves into a major tax beef with the IRS and there being a payment question and potential flight risk.

 

So, let me give you an example:  Suppose there's a major real estate fraudster who has claimed there's no tax owed on millions in gains, off-shores a bunch of dough,  and IRS says no, this isn't allowable and they want their tax money (to match yours and mine, and the other millions who are going to file tomorrow, or have already done so.)

 

The question to me comes down to a pretty simple one: Should tax cheats be allowed to travel around the world, especially when by not coming home, they can skate on taxes due here?  I don't think so.  Seems to me they should have to pay their bills like anyone else.

 

But (and I have to send Gonzalo a note on this)  This is NOT  a case of allowing IRS indiscriminate authority "to keep you from travelling without any kind of judicial oversight"...it's about keeping people who are tax-flight risks from leaving with what amount to ill-gotten gains from being a tax cheat.

 

So this one, as least insofar as I read it doesn't apply in the general case.  I may be wrong but I don't think so.

 

Example #2

Since it's Monday, and I've been up seems like half the night playing referee with cats fighting on the screen porch, I'll simply post this one from Saturday's Peoplenomics report  about a supposed government take-over of the website by [purported] US government agencies:

Fear-Mongering Website Hoax

First thing up this morning I wanted to mention that I had several frantic emails this morning about website, www.disclose.tv reportedly being seized by the US government.

 

Well, no, this is antigovernment agitprop.  Shall we don our thinking caps, for a sec?

 

For one thing, the supposed site seizure notice makes reference to the "US Terror Attorney" in Maryland.  A quick check of this phrase shows the only place it occurs on the net (per Google, anyway) is care to guess?  www.disclose.tv.

 

Point #2:  The U.S. Department of Internet Security is, near as I can figure, mainly a feature of Tom Clancy novels including Net Force.  Care to guess where other references point to?

 

So, while discussion boards seem to be figuring out it's a hoax, at least that's where the thread at Godlike Productions was going this morning, it's important to breathe deeply, focusing on detachment and not allowing yourself to get whipped up into time-wasting head trips.  We have more important things to worry about.

 

Maybe this website is trying to make a point, but I'd score it as cheap hype-ster marketing appealing to fear.  And, oh, by the way, the government would never use a term like "terror-mongering."

 

But, if that's not clear, then you might want to brush up on your 23 U.S. Code cites, since 23 is the Highways section of federal law and only goes up into the 500's

 

Very poor form as I see it.

As of this morning, that site is back up.  But there's something to be learned here.

 

We have to be very clear on something when it comes to government:  It's perfectly fine to be neutral and skeptical about how government works.  I consider myself in this camp.  But it's another to make up patent untruths and lay it at the feet of government.  Sorry, but that's when a group, or person, crosses the dangerous line to become anti-government.

 

A thoughtful person would likely remain neutral on government because, while on the one hand it's the most expensive thing in Life (costing people even more than their homes over a working lifetime, especially when you consider government actually orchestrates inflation (via monetary debasement and then pulls crappy tricks like refusing to allow an inflation adjustment to long term gains - a crooked and dishonest accounting which doesn't seem to get mentioned much) but in the main it's one of those necessary evils. 

 

If you want the cops to come when you call, or the fire department, they you support tovernment.  But, like my one-man crusade for inflation-adjustment of long term gains to take watering down the purchasing power of money into account, disagreeing on this point or that is fine.

 

But when people start to (pardon this) make up shit about government, then as I see it, the line is crossed and efforts become anti-government and such things go viral since I must have had 20-30 emails from non-Peoplenomics readers on this.

 

Example #3

On the other hand, a couple of readers pointed out that the Southern Poverty Law Center has compiled a list of what they call "Active 'Patroit' Groups in the United States in 2011."

 

A quick look at the SPLC's "What We Do" page lists as their very first "do" point "We track the activities of hate groups and domestic terrorists across America, and we launch innovative lawsuits that seek to destroy networks of radical extremists."

 

Oh?  Isn't that what DHS and those Fusion Center folks are for?

 

I'm a little confused, I admit by the SPLC list, since with this as a high priority task, is this saying that the "Active 'Patriot'" list membership is a judgment call that these are hate groups and domestic terrorists?  No, not at all -  since I note their list very carefully denotes: "Listing here does not imply that the groups themselves advocate or engage in violence or other criminal activities, or are racist."

 

OK, if not, the why the list and why put them on it?  Could it be putting little quote marks around the word 'Patriot' in a larger context pejorative be the agenda?  I honestly don't know and you can read it as you will...

 

Like the ACLU, sometimes the SPLC does things I strongly agree with...but until the purpose of this list is clarified a bit, the question "Whatzzup with that?" has me stumped.

 

Scoring

In our first example (tax cheats) I think there are some people who get folks whipped up on the wrong point.  -1 point.

 

In our second example (laying false events at the feet of government) crosses the line an is anti-government.  -1 point.

 

In the third case, why The List if list members don't advocate or engage?  Fine lawyerly wording, I'll give them that, but I'd sure like someone to explain what the agenda is for creating such a list if the groups name have not done anything wrong?  (No points - Awaiting input) 

---

Tough issues, all of these, but it's what America wakes up to on another morning here in the Worker's Paradise....IF, that is, you pay your taxes, don't get sucked in by anti-government  hoaxes, and don't get yourself or groups you belong to - on some kind of pejorative-tasting list. 

 

Being a Patriot isn't a bad thing.  Being paranoid is.  And so the scrupulously balanced person does a little Criticism and Self-Criticism  once in a while; though usually just long enough to remember where that came from.

 

 

 

Chart of the Week!

Before the chart, a little background:

Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug.  Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?"  "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.

 

So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track.  Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.

 

No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes.  So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:

 

 

"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest. 

 

Why sure it is...you bet.  A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure...  (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK?  Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)

 

Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"

 

George Ure, The People's Economist


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