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Friday June 1, 2012 10:22 A CDT FAQ
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Silver Bullet Theatrics: The Comedic Jobs Report
My friend Howard Hill called last night, please to advise me that he had written the big story about this morning's unemployment number a day ahead of the event. So I'm sitting there wondering WTH? I mean Howard's good and all, but still... When you click over to his site, however, all is revealed: Howard's simply taken to calling it what it is. Example:
Being the calm and milder mannered reporter from a great outback newspaper, able to leap, yada, yada, I'll be posting the second part on Peoplenomics tomorrow of "The End of ALL Jobs" which is the problem no one likes to talk about, but with robotics, metal printing/manufacturing-on-demand in the wings and a jobs per human that has been whacked roughly in half since 1953 in America, the cause for our fixation with single-digititis (sometimes irreverently referred to as statistical savior economics, or silver-bullet bullshit) is well founded: Economists don't have a clue what happens next.
When there are no jobs (or only a handful of machine maintenance jobs once machines begin designing machines, a process we're halfway down the road on thanks to software and automation already) how are people to be paid? And for what? Work?
Most folks haven't grokked what Honda's got going in the wings with their ASIMO program, but the answer is simple: ASIMO with a few tweaks and a credit card scanner can wipe out virtually every job in retail, including pizza delivery, and even housekeeping there is.
In a recent Peoplenomics report, Oilman2 contributed some examples of how RP (rapid prototyping) technology was about to what lots of highly paid jobs down in the oil patch support ranks. What used to involve hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of human labor building precision drilling bits, is on the verge of being marched out back, given the ceremonial last smoke, blindfolded and put up against the wall.
Let me say it again: There's not a single efftard economist being quoted in the MSM on the severity of the problem. But if you thought the internet was the weapon of mass destruction of jobs, you ain't seen nothing yet.
With this as the warm-up act, we will try not to ruin the rest of this morning's performance by pointing out that theater has been set on fire and no one is particularly concern. So y'all just sit back and enjoy the show. May I have the envelope?
As I'm opening it, let me say it again: If you're under 25 you will face this problem for real. Robotics and automation are coming to get your job and with Google testing self-driving cars in Nevada, automatic landing systems doing CAT 3 landings of aircraft, maybe the Kapitalist wet dream of no workers to deal with is closer than you might think. So do think a bit about what history teaches us about people who have no redeeming value and ask "Am I only worth what I consume, not what I make?" and "How come robotics and automation aren't taxed at parity (or above) human tax rates since they destroy jobs?"
Would you raise the curtain, please?
Now all the fine print stuff:
And the number of "estimated into existence jobs from the CES Birth/Death Model? I assumed that the estimated jobs (created from statistical aether) will be much larger than the claimed jobs increase, and guess what?
Statistically "created" jobs was 204,000 which means real, provable jobs were down whatever 204k minus 69K is. OK, real (net provable) jobs were down 135,000
And the U-6 Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization number? If real jobs were down, this measure of unemployment ought to go up, right?
Well, lookie here: from 14.5% to 14.8% in the PhD's Flipping Cheeseburgers index. Look surprised!
Now, for bonus round, the free trip to Hawaii, and whatever is behind curtail number three, can you guess which way the market will open since I went short yesterday?
Global Train Wreck Dept
I don't suppose you notice that Japan took out the key 8,500 handle overnight?
And EuroCollapse, editors cut, features the French CAC blowing through the 3,000 support level, and The City denizens still ain't getting it: their Unemployed Kingdom FTSE is down only .85% but that's so far. Maybe they'll get a clue as we tank at the open here.
Tea and crumpet, in the meantime?
The End (Really is) Near
I entered the short side of the market yesterday and ignored my logical exit point which would have scalped a buck on a $26 dollar trade for the day. Why? Well there was something in the wind - and if the early futures hold (down 26 points on the S&P, Robin Landry's key number 1,292.66 is going to fall like a knife through butter and the end of the end is game on. Sorry, but I told you being in bonds with retirement dough will make sense.
Not like it's just George the Nutter in the Outback on this: On Scribd this morning you can find a dynamite slide show (32 pages, but it's a quick read) about how what I've been writing about since 1996/97 here is really coming to pass shortly....like starting today...
Key quote if you skipped by it: "The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion of derivatives..."
Why merciful sakes, doesn't that sound familiar?
Crooks of the Senate
No worries on the jobs report - Washington will save us. Unless...uh...absolute power corrupts absolutely, right? So go read the article on the Washington Guardian site titled "Skeletons Haunt Senate Hopefuls: Thirteen candidates have past bankruptcies or criminal records..."
I'm not so worried about the criminal records...people can change. But headed into what is likely to be the worst economic mess in over 200 years, who in their right mind would trust people who can't manage their own money, to be trusted with the public's money? Times are fruitier than a nutcake.
On further thought, there may not be enough people left in 'Merica who are in their "right minds" to matter.
The John Problem
Two time(ing?) White House wannabe John Edwards is likely on pins and needles since the jury acquitted on one count and deadlocked on the other charges against him. Question on the table is whether there will be a retrial on the deadlocked issues? Public's in a hanging mood toward politicos (or will be after today's trading) so I figure it's probable but not certain.
Try to keep in mind Edwards is a symptom, not the disease...
A Seattle Obit
Terrible shooting spree up in Seattle this week - and it brought a note from daughter Denise about the impact of senseless violence:
And while the outbreak of violence continues, another story about zombie-like behavior is coming to light in Baltimore.
Seems to me the question is not "Is the world going nuts?" Far past that point, I'm afraid: The real question is "How far nuts do we go in these episodes?"
Now, speaking of horrific crimes, we're off to watch the rape of retirement accounts, playing today in zombie markets near you... I trust you'll watch this safely and guilt-free because you told all your friends to read UrbanSurvival, am I right?
The major change to note is that global declines long held by economic theories are now past the point of "materializing." From today on, the correct terminology is metastasizing. As I summed up in a report some years back: One Over Virtuous Cycle is here: Bonus round that takes out the 2009 lows and then some.
More after this...
Coping: With the Future of Gold and Silver
Time to refocus a bit on economic things, and we kick around a very good question from a reader:
First off, on the question about ETFs: Yes government can do whatever it wants since, when it feels threatened, all it needs to do is haul out the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (of 1977) which summarizes in Wikipedia this way:
No, it does not require a war per se: Only existence of an unusual and extraordinary threat, which, believe me, this administration (or any other, regardless of party) would jump on in a NY second faced with global economic collapse later this year or next. So yes, if you don't get out of ETF's (and get your money the hell out of a stock account) you can bet your bippy it would be frozen as part of a Bank Holiday of the 1930's variety.
Now, that gives us a "legal" framework to launch from, since once in power, governments tend to be "self-legalizing" - a topic for a much deeper study. But in answer to your question, this is precisely the kind of thing Robin Landry and I talk about when we get together: What will the order of collapse be. When will be the moment to bail on short positions and make a clean move to your bank or into physical assets?
On your second question: Of course government will blame "short sellers" but this will be unadulterated bullshit, so be ready for it when it arrives. That happened in the 1930's event and it will happen again. Everyone will be wrong (except government) and everyone but excess spending and watering down the dollar's purchasing power done hand-in-hand with congressional approval will be blamed. The corporate ownerships will love it because in the short term, it might result in something of a bounce so owners of companies can cash in.
Yes, it is possible to survive. Keep your mouth shut and go with the flow and always have a number of exit strategies from any situation. Why do you think Clif is building a boat? Why do we have a "magic carpet?" A wise person would have some land, sea, and air skills banked by now, along with some grub and means to grow a subsistence existence.
But it may not be pretty: Should the global collapse be avoided, it will still be many times worse than the "nearly lost it" events of 2009. Government will be bailing out "to big to fail" outfits right and left. Do you know anyone who actually has stock certificates in hand anymore? Turn off the internet and what have you got?
My book on that little nightmare is almost complete - I should have it available in about two or three weeks. In the meantime, last week's Peoplenomics report outlining the systemic attacks on autonomous systems (home gardening, home chicken raising, homeowner association rules that remove property rights, requirements to hook up to city water and sewage, and on, and on...) is a must-read, as well.
Feel better for asking?
Friday at the WuJo
Ah, here's a fine email:
Want a wild-ass guess? After a near-brush with enlightenment (the internet providing for mass consciousness arising, and coincidentally when CERN is on the verge of figuring out the whole workings of the material world) we discover that we've ripped a hole in the bottom of the boat (economically) and so we descend into a morass of lesser-lifestyle people in order to reorganize and make another run as this mass consciousness stuff.
But, of course, it won't happen for a good long time, and just like this time around, having shot ourselves in the foot, we'll be taken over by power-hungry groups and organizations which will sell fear, shame, guilt, and all those other negatives into life in order to keep us all under control and away from that dangerous self-realization stuff. Oh, and when those get shaky, it will be back to guns and clubs again.
You see, there's a good bit of data to suggest this is a cycle: Arise and fall back otherwise the Vedics would have been successful, or in another cycle, maybe the "How To" book was really in the Library at Alexandria when it burned.
So while the real work may be generally described as "Chop wood, carry water" in my circle of friends, it's "Chop wood, carry water, build boat, fly magic carpet, prep like the dickens, work on 'right action' and hope the numbers work out. And if they don't, we'll at least have tried to keep our options open in order to contribute to "what's next,", which is more than most of the rest of the herd which obviously ain't gettin' it."
Which is why our whole framing concept for the morning has been the bankruptcy of silver bullet theatrics as a solution to sand in the Vaseline.
Write when you break even: firstname.lastname@example.org
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Coping Forward/Autonomous Systems
Time for another chapter of my book "13-acres and Independence" - a steely-eyed look at how the world is doing, and how each of us can each plan our own "coping forward" path into the messy future. Of course this leads directly into a discussion of society's war on autonomous systems, so we'll discuss what those are and how they work, by contrasting networked (dependent) systems and the autonomous sort by analyzing what's likely to fail. Think Global Epic Fail. Boy, are we in the holiday mood, or what? I make a perfectly reasonable case for doing away with many holidays, too, since they're getting to be "Values Half Remembered" days anymore. But first, as a mood-setter, we'll run through some of this morning's headlines and what they mean.
Be Sure to Visit: The UrbanSurvival Amazon store. Books, computers, software, and outdoor gear. You're going to buy things on Amazon, so use this handy portal...
Safer Computing: Swearing Off Cookies
It has been a while since I roared the praises of the Maxa Cookie Manager which you can download and install for a free test drive by clicking here.
To upgrade from the demo to full working is still less than $30 (During their Spring Sale) and one heck of a bargain at that, if I do say so.
A new version of Maxa is due shortly (V. 6.0) and we'll advise in due court when it is due for release, upgrade paths, and all that-there kinda like stuff.
"Live on $10,000" A Year
Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on $10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. . Click here for the index and details.
Tell Your Friends about UrbanSurvival
Please pass along word of this site to your friends by simply clicking here to send 'em a short email. - Thanks!
Thursday May 31, 2012
Student Loan Debts Near $1-Trillion
Like we don't have enough worries with Euro and Greak, Spanish, etc? Try this on for size - just crossing...
More tomorrow - look for market reaction over the next day or two...
The Hijack of Legislative Process
We begin this morning not with our usual assortment of economic this and thats - we'll serve those up in a minute. But instead we pause to congratulate state representative Mike Bost of Illinois who called it like it was, telling fellow members of the Illinois House that he was sick of House rules that stripped the full House of power and put it in (look surprised here) that hands of one or two power-brokers - contrary to Constitutional intent.
We emphasize that this is in Illinois, but the problem is endemic in places like Washington, where bills are introduced in "hurry-up" fashion (remember the Patriot Acts which we so handily available minutes after 9/11?) and shoved through would serious debate.
We could list other egregious errors of process - like the hacking of the legislative process that goes with putting "riders" on bills - pork oftentimes, but if placed in "essential legislation" who can say no?
The American political process is just great. What's not so-great is the twisting and turning of events to concentrate power into the hands of a well-connected few, instead of the thoughtful (and open would be nice) discussion of critical issues.
So a tip of the hat to Mike Bost, Illinois assemblyman and one of our dwindling supply of honest politicians. I'm sure we wouldn't agree on all matters, but on the hijacking of process, he got it right.
Creeping Government Dept 2
Then there's NY City which - crazy as it sounds - has plans to outlaw sales of large-sized sugary drinks. Could happen as early as March, so not much time to move to a free state.
If you live in the Northeast, my condolences from the still free state of Texas. I'm not aware of any mayors down here who would be so pretentious as to practice medicine or drive costs up for consumers who want to buy the more economical one liter bottles.
And I suppose it would just be a further annoyance if I pointed out that all alcoholic beverages sold in NY contain a far more dangerous long-chain sugar-like molecule, but that might bring me to a discussion of political expediency and hype. I'm just guessing alcohol is more of a public health issue than soda pop.
Meantime, the Fooled and Drugged Administration did get something right (for a change): Rejected the kinder, gentler name for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) which was proposed by the refiners: "corn sugar" since it's not crystaline.
If we could just stick to making liquor, ethanol, on the cob, and fattening cattle....
Speaking of Texas Politics...
You might find this Fox 19 Reality Check of interest, since although the GOP (strong arm division) is asserting Mitt Romney as the presidential pick of the party, there are some interesting possibilities still open.
Six Dead in Seattle
With our plans including a brief stop in Seattle in July, but the Emerald/Jet/Queen City has been having more than its share of violence, including a gunman and five others dead in two shootings.
More worrisome was the report of 60-shots being fired at four houses in the city during drive-bys Saturday. In quick, out quick for us.
Hanging in Greece
The all too human consequences of financial exploitation are showing up in Greece...things like people hanging themselves in a public park...
Then there's the report about Greek prisons starting to run out of food....
As Goes HP....
...which announced 27-thou of job whacks last week, now Blackberry maker Research in Motion (RiM) is looking at - say reports like this one - 5-thousand fairly soon.
Just out from ADP this morning (highlights):
That ADP reports is current to backward looking. The forward looking Challenger report is really sour:
Markets had been about even earlier, but now, take dart and blindly throw. I got out of my short position near the lows yesterday but I may be back in on the short side after we get through the amateur hour and see how charts look.
The Global Slowdown
Our bureau down in Indonesia sent word that the global chill is being felt in Asian countries now:
And the follow-up dispatch from this morning:
Don't ask how we ended up with presactly one foreign bureau, and that in Jakarta. Risks of running a one-man economic newspaper...
Case of the Missing Telescope
Before telling you about the missing 'scope, let's first review some popular conspiracy talk from the 'net. Has to do with the idea that somehow, Planet X (Niburu, or whatever) will first become visible in the southern skies and that views will be best from the Antarctic.
OK, hard to get to the Antarctic, let alone with a sizeable telescope, unless one is part of the "in-crowd" - and in particular, government agencies (like, oh, NASA etc) which mostly all have confidentiality agreements that may include government paid vacations to the fed-pen at Leavenworth, KS, for breach.
OK...wildly crazy sh*t - wacked and wonky. Until, that is, along comes a multi-million dollar telescope project, which was destined to arrive here in Palestine, Texas, where the National Balloon Center is located.
Now here's the weird part: KLTV is reporting the telescope parts bound for assembly and shipment way south has gone missing.
Is this just the case of an errant truck driver, or something, or is this part of some coordinated effort to keep "public eyes" from looking up with great clarity from a balloon over the most southern skies?
I'm sure the fans of Px will come to the obvious conclusion, but we'll just wait to see if the trailer shows up...
Loose Lips Sink Preppers Dept.
The SHTFPlan site has an interesting account of how a "Doomsday Prepper Sentenced to 21 Months In Prison For Stockpiling “Destructive Devices” After Insider Rats Him Out."
Coping: Is this What Disclosure Looks Like?
Been getting a tremendous amount of feedback on our Tuesday WuJo report which chronicles a series of dreams which starts with lights on the bedroom wall and got progressively weirder from there - including some abduction-sounding aspects. Along the way were slippery glyphs and Pythagorean figures which seem to be showing up in dreams lately.
And not by just the one reader who stepped forward:
Another report? Sure...
And even more..
Transcend, or this is mental food prep to make harvesting easier - hard call to make just yet, but don't mind me, I work in a Faraday cage office with good reason.
And yep, a kind reader sent me a story from the Issac Asimov Science Fiction Manager (June 19866) with a very interesting story by Michael Bishop: "Alien Graffiti: a personal history of vagrant intrusions" so maybe this kind of this falls into a pattern? Not enough data yet, but certainly a possibility. A fair use extract of that story:
So is that fiction, or a dream account? Prescience or whimsy?
But then we have to look into archetypical constructs and inspect the question whether such things are self-arising from social/society norming, or whether they are externally caused.
Oh and the best of the reports may be this one:
Whew! And that leads into...
Then There's Those Zombies Lately
Maybe related, distantly: Ever since a prepared dude, a while back, mentions Zombies (ostensibly humoropusly) we've seen this really set into the public mind. A rather concerned reader sent this:
Our panel of distinguished scientist is out back at the moment, but I'm just guessing we don't have enough data yet to line up on a conclusion, but the target area (humans, consciousness) is sure taking some shots here lately. Keeping an eye on WuJo-like reports (send yours in, names protected) since there is that statistical non-zero chance that disclosure will come as imagery and mental constructs/tests more than a physical thing.
2009 - December, wasn't it? - when that pyramid/triangle was spotted over Moscow?
British WuJo Report
And how's this one?
Strange stuff this WuJo experiences set: Like the slippery glyphs, easy to cast aspersions on (or asparagus for that matter) until it happens to you. Then you get a major WTF? moment and decide to either swear off, change brands, or drink less bean. But it is reported as a person-changer at many levels and that's what makes it so interesting to follow. Whither go the changed persons?
Oh, and then there's the West Texas reader who has a house (a dome) which also lets off with strange sounds...almost like the sounds are displaced from another time...just like this UK report.
Maybe we should start publishing a WSI - weird shit index. Continuing to climb rather steeply. And you do recall Clif's reference in the predictive work to overloaded people going into "drool" mode?
We having fun, yet?
Around the Ranch: Storms in the Outback
We were awakened about 3:05 this morning...lighting coming down from the northwest. Out to the antenna tower to lower it, change over the antennas to "grounded" and then, as I dealt with Zeus the Cat, who'd already made a beeline for under "dad's chair" Elaine backed the car out for a free washing. Half an hour later, the show was over, cat back out, lightning gone. But the tornado warnings are popping up here and there east of us today, a reminder that thunderstorms of summer can be deadly.
Lightning Safety Week is June 24-30 this year. Our lightning detectors are powered by Friskies and Whiskas.
Still dark as night here, so deep is the overcast and gloom. Expect tornado stories possibly in Friday's news flow...
Wednesday May 30, 2012
The Wednesday Reader Note
Ah, the mid-week decline that refreshes is in the wings for us bears. And on the Peoplenomics site this morning we take a very gloomy look some distance into the future and notice what?
Part 1: The End of ALL Jobs
There's a horrible, deep, dark secret that economists don't like to talk about and it will change the world - both for the better, but at such an unimaginably high cost that economists aren't talking about. No, it's not the specter of runaway debt in the world, as easy a pick that is, since that's a condition where so much money is owed simply because of compound interest adding up over time, that no amount of human energy can ever make up the shortfall. That's already in play - and with it, the inevitable concentrating of more and more wealth into fewer and fewer hands; just the stuff of Revolutions. But that is not the topic du jour. Instead it's the problem of America going Brunswick. And if you don't know what that implies, read on...I'll even give you the target date this blow-up happens!
Elsewhere about: Great article by Gaye this morning at the www.stragtegic-living.net site on what you might want in a pocket survival kit. Why just add a couple of credit cards and a paracord bracelet and it a;; becomes the modern human equivalent of a tucker-bag.
And for those interested in precise thinking (aware type bipeds) Clif's site this morning has a note to Wikimedia on it about proper use of the term Illuminati which I'm sure you'll agree is very important to get right...
But enough from me - till tomorrow morning at the usual time...
Tuesday May 29, 2012
Several readers (including Oilman2) have noticed that one of the body pictures out of (supposedly Syria) was really out of Iraq in 2003, or so goes recall on this. Reminder: Guard your gates of awareness. We're in spin to win country now. The Telegraph of the UK is onto it, too!
Latest from Case Shiller/S&P just out:
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, posted a 1.9% decline in the first quarter of 2012 over the first quarter of 2011. In March 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual rates of decline of 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.
Before you pop the champagne, the prices are still stuck at mid 2002 levels:
Still, should fuel a brief round of wild rally in markets at the get-go this morning.
Global Collapse Notes
Switzerland is reported drawing up its contingency plans.
Wonder why a particular protest - like the anti-tax protests in the UK - are not getting much traction? It's because YouTube has, says this report, rolled over on government requests not to put protest videos and other government-offending content online...
Free country? Where'd you come up with that sill notion?
March to War
Getting to where we need a libretto to follow along all the fancy footwork going on.
All of which turns exceptionally dangerous because of US dumbed-down politics. The Romney side of the aisle is pimping the defense industry line as he warns the world is not safe. Which becomes dangerous because it pushes the Obama crew toward a show of force, since the lessons of "rally round the president" in time of war (or "terrorist attack") have not been lost on them.
Canadian Internet "Blackout"
Coming in early next week, looking for 13,000 web sites of Canadian loyalty to be blacked out as the conservatives whack things like labor laws to bits, throws environmental laws under the bus, and other such goodies.
Will it do anything? Hell no...grand theater, but governments only understand the tools they, themselves, use: Force. So if banks closed and stuff like that, yes, I can see it. But the fact is that revolutionary change doesn't seem to occur (Piven and Cloward, right?) unless the normal day to day is upset. Black web sites? Shallow efforts leading to non-change. You're welcome to watch, though.
In addition to the regular economics fare in tomorrow's Peoplenomics report, we'll be recapping the election results from today's voting. In Wisconsin, there's a hot recall election up for decision. Here in Texas, I've never had so many unwanted political phone calls ahead of an election, and turns out republicans aren't real kindly toward one another, at least where there's a plum job up for grabs.
Already seeing stories about how bad voter turnout could be. Still, I don't hold that against Texas' stay at home nonvoters. I'm sure if None of the Above was running, there'd be a huge turnout. On the other hand, common sense here in the outback says "Don't vote, it only encourages 'em."
My brother in law is working the election at a local church polling place. I figure as long as Elaine's promised to bring him a sandwich, we might as well vote while we're there.
Quaking and Shaking
Death toll was at 10 - and going higher as an earthquake struck northern Italy this morning. USGS details are here. Then there was a 6.7 shaker down in Chile on Monday...also close to the quake window we seem to be in now.
Related, Patrick Geryl (web site) has been doing more calculations on quakes:
The problem with quake predictions is it's hard to differentiate underlying patterns from the ongoing noise since quakes are always going on at some level. Likely, some of the math advances in digital signal processing, especially of the sort applied to inherently noisy signals (in radios for example) will move the state of the art forward. But just like in DSP, helps to know what you're looking for (since DSP often uses time-slices compared to know frame to pattern match) so how soon the patterns emerge into a coherent solution seems only a matter of a few gazillion person-hours of engineering...
Watch Your Bank Statements!
One of ours came in the mail last week and contained a notice that effective May 31, our bank would be charging a $10-monthly "service charge" even though the account has five figures in it and I write a check only every so often, usually one check every two or three months....
When the times get tough, the banksters get greedy. Go ahead: Ask me if I'm pissed.
As I've warned you before, here in the Second Depression the problem will not be return on your money but instead will come down to return of your money. I can hardly wait for the TreasuryDirect folks to come out with checking...
Beating Up Texas
A number of people have asked me (as an almost 10-year Texas resident) what I think about the new Gail Collins book As Texas Goes: How the Lone Star State Hijacked the American Agenda.
Not much. I think a more timely book would be "How Chicago politics hijacked the American agenda" or "CorpJack: How corporate interests bought America" but titles like those might not have as much appeal in the Northeast, I reckon.
Don't get me started on the "People solving yesterday's problems..." or "keep dividing and keep conquered..." What was it Pogo said? "We have seen the enemy and it is us." Not Texans.
Coping: With the Best WuJo Story EVER
Oh sure, we get a lot of oddities around here in our chasing after WuJo reports - those slips of time and things that people report every now and then, but this morning we have a most amazing report - probably the longest WuJo case yet and for this reason, it is posted as it's own "case report" in a .PDF file here, since it is 11-pages in length.
Basically, it's a series of dreams, but dreams with lights appearing on walls and those Pythagorean figures - and what we'd have to call slippery glyphs that were alluded to by the WuJo report Monday. Definitely an interesting read - unedited - but by printing to a .pdf protection of the author's identity is assured.
I've read it, a couple of times in fact, and I think I'll hold my explanations of it for the Thursday morning report. If you have explanations for this sequence of dreams, I'd sure be interested to hear 'em.
Thursday we'll go through the many additional reports of people seeing/dreaming Pythagorean figures and slippery glyphs.
Wu-Two: A Matter of Taste
Here's another ponder for you:
I'm not fit to answer - been called tasteless too many times, I suppose. If I were guessing, though, I'd say energy levels are changing and renorming...
Wu-Three: Frequency Out of Place, Contrafactuality?
On a related kind of (WuJo) note, I had the damnedest thing happen when I went flying yesterday. I would have sworn that the local (KPSN) airport's common traffic advisory frequency was 122.8. I mean that is (should I say was) ground into my head for a whole year of flying.
So there I was, Memorial Day Monday, taking the Mouse out for her "around the pattern" trip to blow the spiders off and what's this? I notice on the way out to the runway there's an old sign (that I had never noticed before) instructing all aircraft past this point to tune 122.7 for traffic.
Hold it! Didn't I say 122.8 MHz a second ago? And didn't my radio come up on 122.8? What the heck?
So, I looked at the chart on the GPS/EFB (electronic flight book) and yes, says right there on all the charts: 122.7.
This was, for sure, one of the odder of oddities in my life in a good while. Not that it bothered me, but it's the kind of "little things out of place" that - when noticed - confirm (for those willing to think a little off the beaten path - that life every now and then has these little quirks to it. Like the movie The Adjustment Bureau, things just sort of change but not uniformly.
I will grind this (correct - for now, lol) frequency into my head (as "lucky point 7" and other mnemonics) but I'm here to tell you, I would swear on a stack of anything you care to bring forward that it used to be "point eight." Up through about May 10, in fact.
As we've talked about before, this kind of "could have sworn" recall is likely why accidents happen. A person will come to a stop sign in their car, swear on that stack of whatevers you were holding that they looked and yet they still managed to pull in front of an ongoing [whatever].
In later testimony, these good people will swear they did everything by the book and that nothing out of the ordinary was going on. But is that really the case?
In the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, the world is constantly subdividing and going off in all possible directions. Riding into a brighter future may actually take place by consciously, or otherwise, picking the right future path to be off along.
There's some very good science that suggests humans live life on a time delayed basis.
There's a very good paper by F.A. Wolf (who I suspect is Fred Alan Wolf, author of Time Loops and Space Twists: How God Created the Universe ($18, Amazon) modestly titled "The Timing of Conscious Experience: A Causality-Violating, Two-Valued, Transactional Interpretation of Subjective Antedating and Spatial-Temporal Projection."
Sure, it's Monday on Tuesday, but try to wrap your head about this because it gets to the root of contrafactuality:
What's cool about this is that if you've already read and grokked Dean Radin's landmark paper "Time Reversed Human Experience: Experimental evidence and implications" you can get a pretty good triangulation on how things MAY really work. The good news is that there may be a quantum mechanics explanation of prayer that might be stripped of religious aspects and get right down to the proper way of intending, though that's trouble for the collection plate crowd who do a lot of talk about intending, but haven't moved the ball very far in 2000 years in terms of getting replicable data.
Could the answers to everything that ails us lay in "proper intending" which then makes the world go this way, or that? Signposts sure seem to motion that way and outside of the quantum world, too. Like Dr. Wayne Dyer's works which go to the notion "You'll see it (whatever you seek) when you believe it."
Then there's the matter of ritual...how does that figure in "right believing" with the object of creation of a certain condition?
To be sure, path disconnection is an oddity which may be found at the base of some accidents, but they are pretty widely separated (mostly) which is why they're called "accidents" instead of "ordinaries."
No telling how many times in a human lifetime these little misconnects take place, but they happen often enough that a conscious human may notice them from time to time. Even, sometimes a lout like Ures truly. And, in my case, I note the correct frequency is "lucky seven" now, instead of "don't be late to eight" like it was somewhere back up the Multiple Worlds Interpretation before May 10 or shortly thereafter.
Background: Pilots have all kinds of ways to remember radio frequencies, and this one stood out to me. Just like "go to fingers" for air-to-air coms while learning to fly in formation. "Fingers" means (love this one): 123.45 Mhz...just as you'd count fingers to a child. You have to hand it to them...neat way to remember stuff...although now turns out there's some tiny drift, even here.
I'm totally confident that no other local pilot would agree on 122.8...they likely got the memo as we turned off that track of the MWI which timing-wise seems to have happened when we were on our Georgia trip. Hmmm...
Follow-on to this stuff on Thursday. Tomorrow being Wednesday, we'll take up the obsolescence of humans problem over at Peoplenomics...it's a logical next dot to connect after the (long) report posted this weekend on how autonomous systems (everything from water wells in the back yard, to out houses, to raising chickens and planting lettuce instead of blue fescue grass) is under attack.
Just at a time when diversity of manufacturing should be expanding the number of ways in which people live, we're headed off on the paradoxical path of constrained choices: War on Autonomous Systems ownership by regular folks.
Fortunately, ain't much in the way of "regular folks" around here!
Parting Peoplenomics reader note on our Autonomous Systems report:
Yes...Except, of course, for when it works...
Monday May 28, 2012
Perspective: Holiday for Who(m)?
Although this is nominally a three day weekend, there are plenty of people who deserve a nod of thanks this morning for keeping the world operating as it is...details aren't their fault: Police, fire, emergency medical, restaurant staff, telephone company on-duty teams, electric company switch room workers, the National Weather Service, pilots, airline personnel in general, air traffic controllers in particular, and my list goes on endlessly. Don't want to leave out highway departments, prison guards, and on, and on....
But, since this is a website about economics (with a side order of WuJo) and the "I don't get its" of life, we'll skip over everyone else who is working today with a simple "Thank you!" and get right to the meat and potatoes of what we do.
We are in, as you must surely have figured out by now, in a Second Great Depression which has been prevented from turning into a worldwide Global Depression by a series of wars and economics bubbles which have sustained things since 2000.
No one likes to talk about this, but on an inflation-adjusted basis (using the Fed's own data) a thoughtful person can discount major market averages to demonstrate that even though the peak of the housing bubble in 2007-2008 saw a Dow over 14,000, it was - inflation adjusted - lower than the 2000 11,723 level.
Which gets us around to the market picture this morning (long term chart, please?)
As you can see here, you don't even need an inflation-adjustment to see what's really going on: All you need to do is track how an equal number of dollars in each of the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ Composite would have done if measured from 2000. In this handy chart, you can see how Wave I down involved the appearance of a new industry (anti-terrorism/state security) and how the Housing Bubble (courtesy of the Greenspanian Fed) bubbled until the peak and pop in 2007 - 2008.
We then collapsed into 2009 (April) and have been in rally mode ever since.
Since you may find some time on your hands today, you may wish to contemplate what happens if we now break through the blue long-term support line there on the right, since under Elliott Wave rules, once the current decline takes out the low under the red 2 up there, we're done, stick a fork in us, Depression Two, the Greater Depression, Second Depression, or whatever you want to call it will be on 'fo sho'.
Not that markets will be allowed to get that far, mind you. We have a pretty large grasp of what could be going on, though: A terrorism attack (like 9-11 but bigger) could flip public attention again - since scapegoats are critically important.
Oh, and let's not forget that there is also the chance (great than zero, anyway) that despite people whining last week to the news that more than 49% of Americans are getting some kind of government assistance every month, would you stop whining, and start thinking, please?
Might be time to read Regulating the Poor: The Functions of Public Welfare and the earlier work by the same authors (Piven and Cloward) Poor People's Movements: Why They Succeed, How They Fail.
Why would you want to read such stuff (I mean besides to see if "legitimated" is really a word, instead of legitimized)? Well, in an odd way, all that money from government (entitlements, etc.) could be looked at as a kind of payoff to keep the humble masses yearning to be free "down on the farm" and quiet.
And, in a strange way, if people are on that government check dole, they should probably be thanking the Occupy Movement every morning, since that keeps pressure on government NOT to cut social spending.
But that gets us on to the other little problem: We've spent so much that (oh-oh) we're on the verge of global bankruptcy, which is where we pick up the story this morning, although in abbreviated form, since I'm going to play this weekend a bit while there's still some weekend left.
With the big Kahuna markets closed until tomorrow, Asia markets had a pretty good pop to the upside. Even Europe was posting gains. Still, seeing as we're down at long-term support levels, even horizontal (sideways) movement on the charts seals our fate, but it doesn't preclude a run to S&P 1,345, at which point I'll be loading the boat on shorts again, although this is not investment advice, mere ravings of a nutjob in the outback of East Texas.
Still, with the US open tomorrow, things may turn sour-to-dour once again since Lloyd's (the bing ins. outfit) is getting ready for a Euro collapse.
This would be tantamount to the US Bond Market Collapse (1931 wasn't it?) and I assume you already grok that Americorps.gov is a mix of Civilian Conservation Corps and Works Progress Administration, and that more than 5,000 bank branches have been reorganized out of existence since IndyMac?
There's more, but let's be nice and enjoy a few more weeks of denial, shall we? And whatever you do, pay no mind to reports the Fed is stuck at zero percent rates forever now. Might ruin the day.
Into the vicinity of Patrick Geryl's quake worry zone...and we have been watching a decent increase in the frequency of quakes over at the USGS site here which you might want to click once in a while.
Although it's not an 7, the 6.7 quake earlier this morning in Chile's Santiago Del Estero region, was notable. Right in that area where it's debatable whether that is "predictive fill" or happenstance.
New & Improved Paranoia Dept.
Lots of comments from readers this morning on " Revealed: Hundreds of words to avoid using online if you don't want the government spying on you (and they include 'pork', 'cloud' and 'Mexico'.
I'm kinda stumped by Fort Hancock being on the list since the place was decommissioned in 1974. Terroristas have an affinity for National Parks?
Costs of Wars
Almost half of new Vets are seeking disability designation reports MSNBC.
War: The expense that keeps on expending on the expendables.
Foreign Policy No-Brainer
UN figures increasing fighting in Syria is a bad thing. Wonder how many years of college that takes to figure out? We're led by geniuses.
Russia has unveiled a new doctrine of opposing "humanitarian" efforts if they are land/resource/power-grabs not approved by the full UN Security Council (which Russia sits on) and says it a subset goes off intervening, that could lead to - yep - nukes.
Report out of Chicago about it. No problem finding an alternate source in Washington - hot air works, does it not?
Coping: Monday at the WuJo
Not too many emails with reports of WuJo events - unusual occurrences of things that just shouldn't happen in a rational world, but we know we're not in one of those anymore, so what the hay....
This one is great, however, especially if you read about the woman last week who slept through an entire 24-hour period and "lost a whole day" of her life...
Not sure what to recommend, except that if this kind of thing starts to happen on a regular basis, make sure you have employment that is piecework, since your output may be incredible!
On a more serious note, can you sketch out some of them Pythagorean images and sense them along? Curious is other people are seeing them, too...
Around the Ranch: Visiting Kids
I am up extra early this morning because the airplane hasn't been flown since we came back from Macon, GA on the 10th. Airplanes, like people, don't do well with near total isolation, so Panama and I are going for a quick spin (a piloty kind of joke, kinda like going for a quick stall...or a quick Immelman...).
Then back to cleaning up the office so as to have it look presentable when m y son and his S.O. show up. No health worries here for 10 days, since George and his woman are both EMT's. Using extra caution not to stub a toe or anything like that...
Hope you have a marvelous Memorial Day and pause at mid-slurp to honor those present, and those not, who have ensured us the opportunity to screw things up in our own, inimitable way. Which we're doing a most righteous job of here lately.
Before the chart, a little background:
Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 11-year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, we're like SO sure... (Shhh...don't tell anyone that major Depressions are two-part coupled affairs like the linkage between 1920-21 and 1929, OK? Damn, dude...don't spoil it for the sheep...)
Oh...don't forget to "Write when you get rich!"
George Ure, The People's Economist
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