Urban Survival’s Inside Report  # 6 December 1, 2001

NOTICE:  All contents © 2001, George A. Ure, except other authors as noted.  This document is intended for the sole use of subscribers and may not be transmitted, reproduced, or in other way used without the prior express consent of the author.  This publication is by subscription:  $30/year for web browser accessed delivery to a password protected site (price effective until January 1, 2002), and $100/year if delivered by U.S. mail within the U.S. and Canada.  Overseas subscriptions are US$ 250/year which includes postage.  To subscribe, send a check to: George A. Ure, 2726 Shelter Island Drive, #322, San Diego, CA  92106.  Your username and password are both your email address, in all lower case to access the protected web site, so don't forget to include it!   Address comments and correspondence to: george@ure.net.    Read the disclaimer: http://www.urbansurvival.com/disclaim.htm

  50-50 Gold & Cash:    Is there a Directorate 153?   

Here I was, sitting on the boat, thinking, "Ahh, a fine weekend.  Sun's out, Panama, and Elaine's son Brandon is down visiting, they're all off sight seeing or fishing, so I can write a quick column and take a nap.

But then the latest from the Think Tank popped in:

By the way, current processing indicates an upcoming assignation
attempt by someone posing as a subordinate (that old ruse). And a
massacre in the field due to power being usurped by inexperienced
captains. I do not *think* that this is referring to the current
investigation into what happened at the prison in Afghanistan, but I
could be wrong on that. However, it still seems as though it will be
an event to take place in the future. We also seem to be
developing another significant (huge) financial tipping point. The
trigger appears to be bank runs in Argentina and the derivative blow
up occurring now. The original projection as to the fed being moot is
also reforming strongly. So this time next year we may well find
that the dollar has collapsed and what the fed decides to do it
irrelevant to future events. And one last thing, the massacre aside,
a developing cloud seems to indicate some, new, and immediate
(say in December) link between all the military stuff, and the
Philippines. Much like earlier.

Sh*t.  There went the nap.  It was time to roll up my sleeves again, because we are getting an "indication" of another major tipping point.  The web bots are back at it again, and it doesn't sound good.

What We Know So Far:

When we published the first web bot tipping point forecast in July of this year, and suggested that something "HUGE" was going to happen, I thought I was going a little nuts.  Again, in late September, when we published the report that and attack on "house or assemblage" was pending, I thought, "Probably just some noise..".  And then after the third forecast we published predicted an attack with arrtibutes like "sun dries the soggy marsh", "commemorative event", "famous man", and "by the Middle Way", I less skeptical. 

If there is anything I have learned from the reality of the :

 It is that I can't just blow off the model output.  I've been slow up until now, but I'm taking their output very seriously..

However, at the same time, both the think tank's main architect of the project, and I, are both not in a position to put full time into the project.  I think I've mentioned to you that we have a proposal pending for DoD  to build a major version of the web bot project and use that strictly for national security work. 

I want you to know in advance that the problem with this approach is that we won't be able to share the "large model" outputs with anyone except the people who are paying for it - DoD if we get the funding - or a big corporation if any of them understand the concept.

The reason for giving you all this background is simply this: The output I am sharing with you this week is from a quick survey of the data coming back from the web bots, not the usual 10-16 hours of detailed tearing apart and sorting out fine points of language.  Still, it's worth noting.  And probably worth acting on.

But the more over-riding issue for me is the intellectual challenge of building a workable model of the forces that are afoot in the world and applying these to the events in today's world, to give up even better insight into the weighting of how things are operating.

This week's output will be followed by two action steps here on the boat.  First, I resolved to get more gold this coming week.  Secondly, I wrote a little bit of fiction for you called:

Renegade MI6 Directorate 153?

Editor's Note:  In order for this to really make sense, you need to understand that there is a fair bit of work that has been done in Russia suggesting that the "New World Order" is not a cohesive group of Western leaning capitalists.  It is, as Duma Researcher Tatyana Koryagina explains it, rather like two competing groups of capitalists that are trying to "win the world" for their viewpoint and financial interests.  It's made complicated by the development of Wahabism in Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Speaking of Iraq, the word there is that although Saddam Hussein has brought relative prosperity back to his country, fundamentalism is continuing to develop as a backlash.  Western anything is being viewed with suspicion, and there's a good chance the whole country will go down the road that the neighboring Shah of Iran went down; becoming more and more out of touch with his people.

So as you read the entirely fictional account that follows, realize that the West is really fractured into what the Russians call "Ordinum 1" and "Ordinum 2" as the two factions of the New World Order (See the past newsletters on how Vladimir Putin is playing this with the Washington-London-Moscow Axis").  Then the third party, and wild card, is the fundamentalist movement.  Orwell's blocks seem to be falling right into line...

{The Scene:  A small office in the Soho district of London in 1986.  There are two people in the room.  One is the Head of Directorate 153, a small renegade MI6 office away from the eyes of Parliment.  The other is the Principal Researcher.  Their job is to promote the interests of one bloc of the New World Order with loyalties to a particular association of cooperating banks....}

Head:    As you recall, from our last meeting, I assigned you to take a small PC type computer that we procured for you in the U.S.A., and build us a simple but viable model in Lotus 1-2-3 for projecting the future.  I called you here today to see how this project is going?

Researcher:      Well, sir, as the old saying goes, I have good news, and bad news for you.  We were able to take some of the numbers that the Budget Office gave us, along with the American C.I.A. forecasts, our own M.I.6, the G.R.U and KGB national security estimates for the various countries, and we came out with a forecast of future events.  But, like I said, there's good news and there's bad...

Head:    Explain!

Researcher:    Well, it's a little complicated, so ask questions, sir, if I need to fill in any of the detail for you?

Head:     Fine...go ahead....

Researcher:    You asked me to set up a simple but viable model for figuring out how the future would develop for our group.   What we did was we ran out the forecasts and saw that no matter what we were able to do in terms of managing responses to the changing economic climate internally and within the Russian states, Russia was going to run out of money at some point, and this would give us an opportunity to provide financing from outside the Russian Empire in order to insure their survival and on our terms.  But the other finding we have is that due to a projected quickening of technology, we may have a new power group arise in the U.S. and linked to Asia that would have similar, but to an extent competing, interests with our own.

There were two obstacles that our model kept coming up with.  The first of these had to do with Russian demographics and investment necessary to come up with a comparable living standard to the West.  The second problem, of course was the potential development of this new group not directly under our influence.

Our group has a tremendous advantage in dictating Russia's future because of our almost complete mastery of British and American fractional reserve banking systems.  For each pound of GDP, we can apply the banking inflator, and essentially leverage up 5 to 10-times the capital for future projects by using government funding judiciously.  Russia doesn't have that kind of banking system.  But, our move toward a single European currency should work out well for us with a showdown around 2005.

However, if technology develops quickly in the Silicon Valley area, of the American West, as we expect it might, we will have virtually no control over that group because of the potential for them to arise as a major economic block almost out of our control.  There are small companies like Microsoft and Apple Computer that we simply do not control.  Their growth rate is beyond our direct control or influence because they may grow at market investment rates, rather than at banking rates.  You see the problem, of course.

Head:    So you're telling me - if I read between the lines correctly - that Russia will never be able to win the Cold War with the West, and that our Euopean interests can take back global leadership from the Americans only after we solve the Russia problem?  Is that what you're getting to?

Researcher:    Yes, well, er....yes, I guess that is what I am saying....

Head:      And you're telling me further that the high growth rates of technology will cause a new economic force to emerge in America that is out of our control?

Researcher:    Well, that about sums it up then, doesn't it?

Head:    What else do you have for me?

Researcher:      Well, the good news is that there may be a way around all this, but we would have to break up the Soviet Union as we know it, reconstitute it under a slightly democratic form, and then we would replace the United States as the leading economic and military power in the world. We would take power away from that Western USA technology group by devising a major economic recession...perhaps a worldwide depression would be better...because it would allow us to consolidate our power.

Head:    You've got my attention....go on...

Researcher:    What we do sir is leap-frog our opponents.  Here's how it would work. Let's begin with Russia.  Suppose you were the U.S., and the second strongest country in the world that you have been pouring hundreds of billions into defending against came to you and said, "We give up"?  What do you think the U.S. would do?

Head:    I think they would buy it, but it would be a hard thing to get past the  Russian President and Duma.

Researcher:      It's not as hard as you might think.  All we need to do is to form two kinds of government - a shadow government that runs the big picture stuff, and a smaller "public government" that makes the daily decisions.  What we would do is tear down the Berlin wall in a couple of years, say 1989, then open our doors to new relations with them.  We would bleed them for everything we could, including their precious metals.  We get all of our adversaries suckered in, and then we pull  what we call the "key reversal strategy" at an unexpected moment.

To do this, we need three things:  First we need to convince Russia to stand down in the arms race, at least for a while to make it appear like a sincere move.  Secondly, we need to drain their military of the power to put down democratic efforts in the short-term because we have to demoralize the military so we can take it over through civil authority.  Then, we need to put Russia through massive internal changes and have businesmen loyal to us need to pick up the big pieces in Russia.  We need British and banking family related leaders to secure the key commercial assets of Russia.

But at the end of the day, say in 15 years or so, we ought to be able to tell the Americans anything we want, have them believe it, and then run our own hidden agenda to overthrow the West through the most powerful instrument in the world - greed.  We let that western American technology group cause a huge bubble and then make our move as it pops.  We'll orchestrate a European currency and a democratic Russia.

At the same time, the Western U.S.A. group that may arise with the current evolution of the high technology sector, will then be terribly vulnerable.  We'll hit that sector when it overheats.  That will reduce the importance of our potential competitors.

Head:    OK, I'll tell you what I will do.  I will have the first part of the plan implemented.  I will set, how shall I say, the "right economic pieces" in place to time Russia's "failure"  so the Americans will see if as a huge victory.  Next, we will promote a war in Afghanistan to weaken Russia's government and military. 

But what I need from you, and in not more than 3 years, is a complete plan to take down this non-aligned American technology bloc.  I want that on my desk complete with a budget not later than June 1989.  Got it?  A solid 10-year plan that will assure a great victory for our group, with the help of Russia.  Screw this up and you won't live to see Newgate Prison.  Are we clear?

Let me remind you of our sworn objective: Our mission is to regain global economic control for England and the Banking Faimlies and Royalty....once and for all.  How we do that is your job, but it has to be a solid plan and one that will give everyone involved...what's the term in the Yanks use?   Oh yes, "Plausible deniability".  We're not going to let any one individual be they royalty of a family member, get in our way.  The whole world is at stake.

Researcher:       Yes sir.....I will come up with a plan...

-----

{With that, their meeting adjourns.  It is taken up three years later  in 1989 by the same Renegade Directorate 153 Head and the Researcher}

Head:    You have your report?

Researcher:    Well, we have made great progress and I think you'll be pleased.   We are going into a three phase program that should result in the fall of the United States, and Russia's assimilation into greater Europe in about 15-years.  Along the way we will knock out the West U.S.A. technology bloc and gain control of that.  Want to see how it will work?

Head:    That's what you're paid to do...

Researcher:    OK.  High level bullet points only.

Head:    So you're saying Russia and these religious militants can beat the West  for us in some sense, if we in effect "camouflage Russia" and do a little promotion of the extremists???

Researcher:    Yes, I think so....

Head:    OK, here's what you do.  I will push through the right little policy moves to make it happen, and get the word out to the families to make sure we get the right pieces of Russia at the time of the break up.  We'll start divesting our monies from the American technology ventures when?

Researcher:    I would do that as soon as Russia falls out of Afghanistan.  You'll see the briefing timetable.  We might also have a few loose ends among Royalty to tidy up about then, too.  We need to make sure there are no loose ends.  I suggest that we brief the PM only on "needs to know", right?  And nothing about covert ops to our own people.

Head:    Good.  Get on those fundamentalists through third parties -  I don't want them traceable to us.  Not to Britain, not to Russia - not to anyone.  I want to give you whatever you need to get the job done, but I don't want anything traceable.  Is that clear?

{The Scene now shifts to early 1999 and the same participants are back for another meeting}

Head:    How is everything shaping up?  The high level view?

Researcher:    OK, here is how our timeline is resolving.  High points only:

There may be some experts like that upcoming Russian Tatyana Koryagina who works for the Duma who may have high press credibility but no overseas visibility.  If a few Russians convert to rubles and Euros, it won't really matter.

Head:    It would seem like a workable plan, but let me ask you this, how will the United States react?

Researcher:    We have found the U.S. is a very patriotic country, but their leaders do not place chess.  U.S. international decisions have historically be a single move, single-response kindsof exercises, but with the advent of computers, we can model several moves out, and then using our back-testing principle, we can work out what the opponent, in this case the West, is really up to.

Head:    Tell me, how does this back testing work?

Researcher:    Well, it's like a fellow wrote on an American web site a few years back, you simply use a spreadsheet and assign all possible outcomes three or four moves out.  Then you wait.  If you see a specific development, you then know which logical branch your opponent is going out - and you can rush two moves in front and prevent check - or checkmate.  But I don't think we need to worry.  Who would suspect British subjects in an obscure branch of government that no one even knows about, for God's sake?

Head:    And secretly funded at that....You're right of course. No one would ever guess that the reason that Russia fell was because of our back room promises of funding from British banking interests.  Nor would they expect that we already know the U.S. has a two-tiered currency system waiting in the wings as a "last resort" weapons against a financial attack such as ours. 

As you say, they are so lulled by the single focus, they will miss things two or three moves ahead.  Say, that brings me to a point, what about China?

Researcher:    They are completely out of the picture.  The way we have it figured, the U.S., will be forced to announce a two-tiered currency system around the middle of February to middle of March in 2002 - ostensibly to "fight terrorism".  That should lead us to bank runs not later than about May of June of 2002.  As this occurs, U.S. imports from China will virtually stop.  This means China will be forced to refinance their obligations with our interests.

By then, we ought to have pretty much everyone on the ropes and in a 1930's style long-term depression. We will once again rule the world.  We can buy it all for pennies on the dollar.

Head:    How long do you think before someone figures all this out?

Researcher:    Oh, I don't know that anyone in the U.S. will notice until it is too late.  Maybe some crackpot web site, but no one else.  People in colonies lack vision and don't understand our influence.  If anything, they think the Swiss are the "bankers to the world".  Few realize that behind the Swiss our interests have been calling the shots for more than a century.

America is a land of people who want to believe...and they don't play chess.  No one will ever believe our involvement because no one will see it.  If they do?  We will just eliminate them...  Even if anyone found out, it's just not convenient to believe that a group of Western bankers would deliberately cause a Depression as a competitive tool to keep out rivals.  Americans will only believe what is convenient...

Again this is entirely Fictional.  But to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, when you have eliminated all the obvious, whatever is left...however unlikely....ia probably the truth.  This fictional story makes a lot of things fit neatly into place.  Neatly, but certainly not nicely.

You may wish to reference the following URL's:

Note 1.  Private email from a reader:
A few months ago you got all excited with 9/11 and decided that the war in
Afghanistan was wwIII equivalent. Actually, there are more parallels in
assuming that Osama is the next Hitler and will eventually lead a united
Arabia against the West. I am assuming that Osama has left Afghanistan and
has gone to Saudi Arabia. I expect him to use the pilgrimage season next
year to show up in Mecca with a call for revolution. Toppling the Saudi
royalty should follow. If Saudi Arabia falls, the rest of the gulf should
follow -- Iraq pledging allegiance without changing leadership. Look then
for Middle east countries like Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon to follow.

Note 2.  Islamic Leaders Complain of Lopsided Trade, Debt
http://www.afghanradio.com/news/2001/february/feb25a2001.html

Note 3:  Headline on Drudge Report web site that a U.S. defense worker wanting a bigger budget for research could be the anthrax culprit.  URL no longer available, which is interesting, too.

Note 4:  Web Bot prediction paper:
http://www.urbansurvival.com/webbot2.htm

Note 5:    Enron files Bankruptcy, Sues Dynegy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011202/business_utilities_enron_bankruptcy_dc_3.html

Note 6:  "Greenspan said that even though the dollar is still the world's top reserve currency, the euro meets all the criteria to be considered a major currency. These include the fact that the combined economies of the countries in the euro area are essentially the same size as the United States and both areas have strong banking systems and open trade"
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011130/bs/greenspan_2.html

Note 7: "You Can't Win with Won" article, describes Bureau of Engraving facility
http://capo.org/opeds/ph0806.htm

Note 8: The Value of the Canadian Dollar
http://jamesbredin.tripod.com/numberfour/id21.html

Lest you think that there is no possibility of a rogue element within MI6, consider the following observations that might  square with this PURELY FICTIONAL scenario I've outlined above:

2. MI6 Killed Di

Plot

Rogue elements in the British secret service decide that Di is a threat to the throne, and therefore the stability of the state. They take her out.

Evidence

a. Recent revelations have shown that there are rogue elements in the secret service who act as more or less autonomous cells. Some of these have been revealed to have a pretty strange view of what constitutes a threat to the state. For instance, they have files on John Lennon, current British Home Secretary (Interior Minister) Jack Straw and they once tried to destabilise the 1970s Labour government. It is not inconceivable that the same agents who believed Lennon was capable of leading revolution also believed Diana was capable of fomenting popular unrest.

b. MI6 is suspected of bugging Diana throughout her years in the Royal limelight, and many believe they were behind the leaking of the 'Squidgygate' phone tapping tapes which damaged her image during the break up with Charles.

c. Bodyguard Trevor Rees-Jones was a former member of the crack Parachute Regiment, one of the most toughest in the British army. He also completed two stints in Northern Ireland and served in the Royal Military Police, just the kind of background that would have seen him come into contact with members of the secret service. Theorists cite the fact Rees-Jones survived the crash as evidence that he was in on the plot to snuff out the Diana threat.
Ref URL:  http://jamesbredin.tripod.com/numberfour/id21.html

Although there is no hard evidence in the Princess Diana case, the notion of a rogue element within MI6 is made even more believable if you read up on the  publicly available information in the Richard Tomlinson case:

Tomlinson's duties included recruiting agents to inform on foreign politicians. His most important task was to infiltrate in 1992 a Middle Eastern weapons procurement programme network - the BMP3 - with the object of locating and disabling a chemical weapons facility. Authorised by an unnamed senior Cabinet minister, the sabotage plan - onc account suggests the planting of a bomb - aimed to intercept a shipment of machinery and interfere with its extractor fan equipment, despite warnings of the possible risk to the lives of dozens of civilian workers at the plant. In November 1992 using the name 'Andrew Huntley' and the pretext of assisting at a conference run by the Financial Times, Tomlinson went under cover to Moscow. His very sensitive mission was to obtain Russian military secrets on ballistic missiles and effect the defection of a Russian colonel who specialised in this area. Although, strangely, he was not given the usual 'immersion' language training in Serbo-Croat, Tomlinson soon found himself in the former Yugoslavia, whose break-up had taken the Service by surprise.
Ref URL: http://members.tripodasia.com.my/mathaba/data/sis/mi6-sd36.htm

I'll leave it to you to answer the question whether larger forces than just open markets are at work.

On to the charts?

Reader's Rights:

Last week, I did a forward look that considered the possibility of an upside breakout for the market.  That piece got this response from a reader:

I present to you an alternate reading for your Elliot Wave analysis. 

First, I agree with your A, B, C, D, E wave - with one exception.  It isn't really A, B, C, D, E it is waves 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 completing wave A of a large A, B, C corrective wave from our mania highs.  In other words, Wave A ran from March 2000 to September 2001.  Thus, right now, I believe we are in the beginning stages of Wave B.  Each of the two up legs in Wave B will have 5 waves - I believe that today (November 28) we are in Wave 4 of the first up leg. 

I believe Wave B will last until approximately April of next year.  At that time the "It's a New Bull Market" mentality will have firmly entrenched itself.  After all, the market will have retraced a portion of the first legs' gains without moving to lower lows.  Then, while everyone is feeling really good - WHAM! Wave C will begin, taking us to much lower lows in all the major indexes.

If Wave C is as long as Wave A, then we might finally be able to say "The Bear Market is Over" in January 2004!  Of course, nobody will be saying that because most investors will have completely given up on the stock market when they finally give up in a massive capitulation.  And I really doubt there will be many analysts who would dare go out on a limb and say "The Bear Market is over."

I can't really say I "love" your web site, after all it offers probably the bleakest outlook on the future that you can find on the web.  Nonetheless, in doing so, it keeps me from getting caught up in the euphoria that is typically presented to us in most forms of media communications.

Bleak?  Us?  There's nothing paritcularly "bleak" about the possibility of Enron toppling others like Dynegy and then eating up the rest of the leveraged energy traders, is there?  And who would call a forecast of an assasination of a prominent figure "bleak"?  Bank runs by June of 2000?  Is that "beak"? 

Well, OK, it might be a little "bleak" at that.  But, given the choice between "bleak" and at least looking seriously at what the web bots report and planning accordingly, I have to go with the bots.

Ask yourself this week "Is there something like a Directorate 153 somewhere?"  Ask yourself how many questions it would answer. 

Fair winds,

George