First, we have to address the obvious.  The Replay of 1929 scenario may be running out of steam more quickly than expected.  Already rumors are floating around in server farm world that projects will be delayed three months in some cases.  But of course, there will always be talk (and grousing) in the trades. Hormuz … Read More

This is a pre-holiday week. A lot of things we already think we know: Markets are often chipper and higher ahead of time off. Gas prices for the week sometimes hit lows by Tuesday. Tank up? The weather usually changes once weekend plans are locked. Traffic — road rage and all — will suck by … Read More

A quick BlinkLabNews scan to roll with  coffee first: Because a few readers are arguing for me to work harder not smarter.  That’s a tale worth telling.  First, though, let’s suck up some coffee and run the global systems check. News Compressor: ON What has changed is the Plaskett Fire: Cal Fire mapped it at 8,241 acres … Read More

Over on Peoplenomics this morning, subscribers get Book Two of The Ancient Children, a look ahead at The Good War, and another novel concept that fell out of the economics work almost by accident: Friction Pricing. The premise is simple enough to sound dangerous—if AI keeps driving the informational cost of goods and services toward … Read More

So far, there’s no sign of the “bake on 400F for two-months” ending down here.  Which leaves us with lots of “chill time” after updating our 5-ton A/C unit – which I’ll explain in a special ShopTalk episode this morning. But the Fried, eh? refers to the birds we watch migrating at this time of year. E-6s … Read More

You know the AI mania is still alive when Nvidia jumps 7% after blockbuster earnings boost AI confidence. The trillion-dollar server farm builds continue en masse. But, as a skeptic and House of Cards fan? Nvidia’s GAAP EPS $2.46 printed above non-GAAP $2.22 because of about $7.77 billion in net gains on equity securities — … Read More

One of the things long-distance sailors learn is that the ocean doesn’t necessarily run on a convenient clock. Rogue waves are the extreme example. They are real, they statistically cluster under certain conditions, and modern systems are getting better at identifying when the risk environment is right. But there isn’t a nice little mechanical cycle … Read More

OK…read ’em and sleep: Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.5% annual gain in June, up from a 1.2% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.9%, up from a 2.4% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted … Read More

Two-part column this morning. The second column will be short but useful if you like to play Inflation Spotting — the Home Edition. Big Rally Nears? I have mentioned this a number of times, but I am seeing the trend again in the UrbanSurvival web-traffic numbers. Maybe. And remember: this ain’t advice. If you have … Read More

Yes.  We actually use AI for doing something we no longer have the time to do a thorough job of: casting our nets wide to see “how much is fishy” out in the world.  No shortage of fish, by the way. Over the weekend (in our Comments section) reader Dell got me to thinking about … Read More

The NWS is back at it – failing to deliver any sign of significant rain – all the way into mid September.  Other than watering “critical trees” (which are the kind that can fall on building if they die of drought) there’s a ton of shop work and so today’s focus is on? Horizontal Engineering … Read More

Peoplenomics is unusually packed this weekend. The written side runs about 4,600 words, backed by a 40-page ChartPack — and for readers who don’t want to chew through the whole thing in one sitting, we’ve added a new Quick Read Coach pointing directly to the five charts that matter most. Markets first: the Bull may … Read More