I will be keeping most of the latest details on our Over-the-Horizon software work over on the Peoplenomics side of the house. There is some very sincere research underway now, and I think we may be getting close to a useful way of separating actual forecasting from the very human tendency to recognize the future … Read More

Monday will be next, though tomorrow’s “ChopShop Monday” will be interesting for those interested in tossing darts at where the future will land… News Junkie Fix What changed overnight is a widening of the same pressure system we have been tracking: energy, war, inflation and rates are becoming less separable. Diesel being up nearly 80 … Read More

This morning on Peoplenomics, we’re looking beyond next week’s Fed meeting and asking a much bigger question: What should you buy today that the world may have trouble making cheaply ten years from now? Productive land, gold and silver, machinery, repair parts and durable goods all make the list — but not simply because their … Read More

Despite me telling you “CPI Doesn’t Matter” – because it’s a transient number, and rates are going higher, we still acknowledge there is a lot of investor focus on the numbers which have just been released – so let’s get that off the table before we make all the rest uncomfortably real. First is the headline: The Consumer … Read More

Dominoes fall down, right? The more useful question this morning is whether enough of them can fall up. May I have the latest rate decision from the European Central Bank, please? The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The conflict in the Middle East continues to … Read More

(As a stand-alone column because of length…) Here: let me open up my brain a bit so you can have another (frightening) look. Yes, I think about everything.  It just takes time to get to it – and there’s a reason: Life is complicated. But this morning’s “block of missing science” comes courtesy of frequent Comment … Read More

This is normally the kind of thinking we squirrel away on the Peoplenomics.com site.  But the issue here is bigger than a paywall… There is a fascinating AI story in The Wall Street Journal this week that deserves more than the usual round of “AI is going to kill us all” versus “AI will save … Read More

Peoplenomics readers get a little more than the usual economic deep dive today. We begin with the latest ChartPack as markets head toward next week’s Fed decision with energy, inflation, currencies and interest rates suddenly tied together in ways that could make this meeting considerably more interesting than advertised. Then there’s a complete new book: … Read More

Well, here we are: Summer is over and it’s time for the adventures of Fall to commence.  Here’s our “hot list” to ponder: When the diesel spike hits.  Price hikes are weaving through the economy already. As the Hormuz problem slithers through, markets will snake, too. This morning the future’s call is down on overnight … Read More

Woo-woo and News Compression?  Yup.  Afraid so. I’m retired. But still watching the Test-Fitting Ape’s behaviors as closely as ever. News Compressor: On Pillows and programs call – so we will be laser-focused. 1 — Hormuz stays lead-story locked, but the risk has migrated from “war around shipping” to an attempted redesign of shipping itself. Iran says … Read More

Reach over and flip the “I’m retired” switch… News Compressor: On Nice to sleep in late enough for a change. Still needed coffee before turning on the machinery. Wheat and chaff first. Claim-Chronology Audit Hormuz — EVENT: U.S. forces struck three Iranian crude carriers following Iranian ballistic-missile attacks on U.S. naval vessels. Iran subsequently claimed … Read More

Peoplenomics takes a different turn this weekend. We have spent the past month worrying at the long-wave problem from several directions, and the pieces are beginning to fit together in a way I did not expect. The latest work asks a deceptively simple question: what if the economy is not being driven by one grand … Read More