Dominoes fall down, right? The more useful question this morning is whether enough of them can fall up. May I have the latest rate decision from the European Central Bank, please? The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The conflict in the Middle East continues to … Read More

(As a stand-alone column because of length…) Here: let me open up my brain a bit so you can have another (frightening) look. Yes, I think about everything.  It just takes time to get to it – and there’s a reason: Life is complicated. But this morning’s “block of missing science” comes courtesy of frequent Comment … Read More

This is normally the kind of thinking we squirrel away on the Peoplenomics.com site.  But the issue here is bigger than a paywall… There is a fascinating AI story in The Wall Street Journal this week that deserves more than the usual round of “AI is going to kill us all” versus “AI will save … Read More

Peoplenomics readers get a little more than the usual economic deep dive today. We begin with the latest ChartPack as markets head toward next week’s Fed decision with energy, inflation, currencies and interest rates suddenly tied together in ways that could make this meeting considerably more interesting than advertised. Then there’s a complete new book: … Read More

Well, here we are: Summer is over and it’s time for the adventures of Fall to commence.  Here’s our “hot list” to ponder: When the diesel spike hits.  Price hikes are weaving through the economy already. As the Hormuz problem slithers through, markets will snake, too. This morning the future’s call is down on overnight … Read More

Woo-woo and News Compression?  Yup.  Afraid so. I’m retired. But still watching the Test-Fitting Ape’s behaviors as closely as ever. News Compressor: On Pillows and programs call – so we will be laser-focused. 1 — Hormuz stays lead-story locked, but the risk has migrated from “war around shipping” to an attempted redesign of shipping itself. Iran says … Read More

Reach over and flip the “I’m retired” switch… News Compressor: On Nice to sleep in late enough for a change. Still needed coffee before turning on the machinery. Wheat and chaff first. Claim-Chronology Audit Hormuz — EVENT: U.S. forces struck three Iranian crude carriers following Iranian ballistic-missile attacks on U.S. naval vessels. Iran subsequently claimed … Read More

Peoplenomics takes a different turn this weekend. We have spent the past month worrying at the long-wave problem from several directions, and the pieces are beginning to fit together in a way I did not expect. The latest work asks a deceptively simple question: what if the economy is not being driven by one grand … Read More

Many moving pieces to life here going into the long weekend. So we will keep a tight focus because there’s a lot to take in. Changes around here will continue my slow-roll into “retiring.”  Sunday and Monday will feature software assisted “BlinkLabNews.com”-style summaries.  We’ve got a ton of fall work ahead and the deeper work … Read More

OK, we have to begin with the data roll today.  Because there is a ton of it. And being a workaholic, I always feel like I need to tell you something factual and/or useful before launching into one-liners.  Which I call “Stand Up News.” Work with me here: Starting with part two of the Employment … Read More

I promised to keep today’s ChartPack to 30-some pages. It came in at 41. Apparently, even the page count is suffering from inflation. There’s a four-chart Quick Read Coach up front, because the useful question this morning is whether tech’s weakness becomes a broader market problem—or another pullback the bulls manage to repair. We’ve marked … Read More

First, we have to address the obvious.  The Replay of 1929 scenario may be running out of steam more quickly than expected.  Already rumors are floating around in server farm world that projects will be delayed three months in some cases.  But of course, there will always be talk (and grousing) in the trades. Hormuz … Read More