Markets are beginning to look like they might have a nasty surprise waiting for investors between now and the holidays. In today’s Peoplenomics, we lead with our latest OTH (Other Than Human/Over-the-Horizon) forecasting outlook, then compare those forward-looking possibilities with the Fed’s industrial production numbers and our Saturday ChartPack. With energy prices, AI financing, geopolitical … Read More

Remember the carton in Thursday’s column?  Obsoleted by overnight trading in Asia. South Korea popped up. Japan was healing And the world isn’t ready to end – just yet. The U.S. market was set to pop higher today. But maybe only momentarily.  The Economic Fractalist (site) has blessed us with an updated outlook here with a … Read More

A note from my friend The Economic Fractalist drew our attention to the overnight (re-) collapse of the South Korean KOSPI index – down almost 7.6 percent. Japan was down almost 5 percent and Taiwan was nibbling its way toward 4. As usual – especially with the 1929 Replay potentially closer than even 2008 – is the problem of … Read More

Been a few days on my To-Do list.  So, I wanted to job down a few notes about what’s changing in the craft of writing. This is a long answer to long-time reader & subscriber Sam B up in the Grand Junction part of Colorado. He inquired about me writing up an update to my … Read More

I am an idiot. We are giving away too much, again. While much of the publishing industry is trying to figure out how little content it can deliver for another dollar, we’re determined to see how much thinking we can do for $40/year. What’s on deck today? We begin with the CPI numbers and what … Read More

Let’s Start with “What a Sailor knows.” When I was sailing, having lived aboard a sailboat for more than ten years, the operation of waves and wavelets—particularly how they can stack or cancel—became crystal clear. In a regular seaway, there’s a dominant wave train. All lined up, these might range from one-inch ripples to 12-foot … Read More

Softly and Uply are the key concepts early today.  Because, as we anticipated on the Peoplenomics.com site this weekend, the real action should come late-week. European bourses were up early.  Asia was a different story: The KOSPI was down 3.65% overnight. This South Korean index traded around 9,150-ish not long ago (late June). But as of … Read More

One of the joys of retirement is that I have organized our home/lives to be based on a workstation concept.  That is to say: The first 20 minutes was a shave, hot shower, and tossing my laundry into machines. A shy 15 at the coffee drinking, blood pressure taking, and red LED for eyeballs recliner. … Read More

Hurricanes spinning, tankers getting shot at, Washington arranging Russian diesel while sanctioning Russia, and Wall Street celebrating. Welcome to Saturday, where the headlines are the atoms, but the real trouble begins when they form molecules. Today’s Peoplenomics News Compressor connects the dots between energy, warfare, consumer confidence, and financial markets. The wiring diagram isn’t pretty. … Read More

The problem before us couldn’t be clearer. As long as we have a debt-dependent, interest-based economy, we have a built-in addiction to growth, pure and simple. Not because interest mathematically requires perpetual expansion, but because the institutions we’ve built around borrowing, lending, taxation, and investment are rewarded when tomorrow’s economy is bigger than today’s. There … Read More

Blame Engineering isn’t a featured sport in America, yet. But out here in the (peace and quiet of the) woods, the headline evidence piles up that the sport is expanding. The working clip file runs from AP’s presidential buck-passing to CNN’s blame-the-messenger framing, POLITICO’s inheritance argument, and Carl Cannon’s reminder that Biden had his own … Read More

Markets, Media Rut, and the Missing Frame? One of the mysteries of modern investing is why everyone waits breathlessly for the Fed Minutes. By the time they’re released, the meeting is history and the decision has already been made. Useful rearview mirror? Sure. Windshield? Not so much. In today’s Peoplenomics, our overnight BlinkLab scan finds … Read More