Take the day off.  In fact, take the rest of the week off. Because we already (sort of) know what to expect. Within a somewhat bounded range the future has been predictable lately.  In a “bring your own NoDoz” way. WW 3 – Another Weekend Some weeks back we said it appeared that World War 3 … Read More

In the first mowing tale – and I have seen this first-hand – the workman comes out, starts the lawnmower and then carefully mows the yard.  Forth and back, but stopping and reversing course frequently in order to ensure he hasn’t missed a spot. The basic mowing takes him  two hours. As the tale unfolds, … Read More

Saturday’s Peoplenomics starts with the market’s slide into what I called “dangerous levels” Friday—and then asks the larger question: If another Depression is forming, what will make this one different from 1929? The answer may involve a nasty combination of managed prices, leveraged infrastructure, food and water stress, and an AI buildout whose revenue requirements … Read More

Hard data first today, though market futures were already in the pits — options expiration, border politics, housing arithmetic, and another Fed data drop all lined up in the same morning traffic jam. Retail sales and housing numbers gave us the first hint that the consumer is not wading in deeper now. Is the Viagra … Read More

DDT: Data Dense Thursday. Retail Sales Softer than many expected: “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $768.6 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and up 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from … Read More

Today’s Peoplenomics goes well beyond the charts. We are looking at two possible engines behind the long economic cycle—and they may be different faces of the same problem. One says human beings and institutions are reaching a cognitive saturation point: information, complexity and machine-generated options are arriving faster than the Slow Layer can absorb, verify … Read More

The market took a little knock down Monday (“sell the rumor”) so now – at last – the answer to the question which has been (poignantly) hanging in the wind since last week. How Bad is it?  Well, you may not believe this one… “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4 percent … Read More

Lindsey Graham’s passing has stirred up a hornets’ nest of speculation about his death and his Ukraine trip:  Was Lindsey Graham poisoned? Why Iran and Russia are at the centre of conspiracy theories. The Senate vacancy creates a short-duration policy choke point — 88%. Graham’s replacement may come quickly, but until then each absence or … Read More

Doggonit, if this isn’t an interesting column this week. Because it was one of those weeks when “the magic happens” between the ears.  Weeks we learn something deep – and meaningful – about how Life works. Start with Two Broken Tractors Yeah, the Fourth of July weekend didn’t turn out quite right.  Plan was that … Read More

The market may have one more summer rally left in it—but the clock is running. This week’s 41-page Peoplenomics ChartPack lays out the case for a possible final push into the mid August to Labor Day period, while Tuesday’s CPI, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s testimony, bank earnings, and an increasingly unstable war backdrop could pull … Read More

We need to begin with an article reader Hank out on the Big Island cited overnight. Over on Zero Hedge: Strongest El Nino In 75 Years Sets Off Food Supply-Chain Alarm Bells. This is not new to our thinking around here as you know.  Dust Bowls come and go. But from the economics and investment … Read More

We are – right now – in what I call “IHOP Markets.”  Because prices keep waffling. Our best guess (and that’s all market lookaheads are., in all reality), it looks to us like there is clear sailing ahead until Labor Day.  Sure, there is a Fed FOMC in a couple of weeks,. But sure as the … Read More