Over on the Peoplenomics side this morning, we have 46 pages of original market work built around our Magic Ovals approach to inter-market coherence. The short form is that last week’s hard break may have been less “collapse confirmed” than a violent washout setting up another rally attempt—possibly with a higher-lower-higher terrain profile as the … Read More

This will be a somewhat complicated morning – so let’s “chunk it”. ECI First Let’s begin with the “employment cost index” which has just been released. The Pitch:  ECI is a solid, low-noise gauge of employer labor costs (wages + benefits, composition-adjusted) useful for tracking wage inflation pressure. The Reality: It is not a quality-of-life … Read More

We want to hand out the gold star for today’s class session to reader JRN who (going from memory) is up in one of the square states.  He was asking about the market dump Thursday. “Was (today) the first chapter of a serialized Minsky moment?” Let’s begin by letting off some tension.  Market futures were … Read More

Market first – because it was remarkable. As in remarkably bad. Whether we will do a public post here on Urban will depend on whether we get “glowing reports” about the coming weekend. Because that’s when the world could really take a “smoke break.” To keep things in perspective? It feels less like triumph than vertigo. … Read More

The basics: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, … Read More

This morning’s Peoplenomics is deliberately short, but not exactly light. We begin with the overnight break in the U.S.–Iran quiet, the oil-market reaction, rising casualties from the Japan earthquake, and the one event capable of moving almost everything today: the Federal Reserve decision and Kevin Warsh’s afternoon press conference. Then comes the pre-Fed ChartPack, including … Read More

But it tells of inflation, nevertheless. At 9 a.m. ET today, S&P Dow Jones Indices released the latest results of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, formerly known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. Data through May 2026 reveals the following: Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.1% annual gain in … Read More

WTBU:  “Wake The Brain Up.” As I explained to a long-time reader this morning, you live life in the position of a News (ENG) photographer. You see, field reporters often make a choice: One light? Two? Three?  As I’ve aged, I’ve come to appreciate that is a template for how people think. The “one-light” crowd … Read More

Another World War III weekend, I see:  Ordnance Friday and Saturday then a “peace pause” play. US and Iran pause strikes for third night to make space for talks, US ambassador says. Our (surprisingly keen) observation that WW III would be played as a “weekend war” is turning into a real “NSS” (“No shit Sherlock”) … Read More

Reader Note: This will be my last planned ShopTalk Sunday, as more content will be shifting over to the Peoplenomics.com side of the house. Next month, one regular UrbanSurvival publishing day will disappear into the fog of history. Over time, more of my serious work will migrate to the Peoplenomics side of the house.  Today we … Read More

After being mailed from Denver on July 7, then traveling the midsection of America while trying to find Palestine, Texas, Elaine’s eBay purchase—and our patience while trying to reel in an old but working IBM Selectric II—came to an end overnight. eBay—to their credit—came through with a refund of just over $200. Honestly, we will … Read More

The charts have turned materially more defensive. The Dow is still pretending the party can continue, but the S&P and especially the NASDAQ are telling a rougher story. Our short-term measures now suggest the market may try a brief rally first, but the larger setup favors a harder move down into August rather than a … Read More