Peoplenomics takes a different turn this weekend. We have spent the past month worrying at the long-wave problem from several directions, and the pieces are beginning to fit together in a way I did not expect. The latest work asks a deceptively simple question: what if the economy is not being driven by one grand … Read More

Many moving pieces to life here going into the long weekend. So we will keep a tight focus because there’s a lot to take in. Changes around here will continue my slow-roll into “retiring.”  Sunday and Monday will feature software assisted “BlinkLabNews.com”-style summaries.  We’ve got a ton of fall work ahead and the deeper work … Read More

OK, we have to begin with the data roll today.  Because there is a ton of it. And being a workaholic, I always feel like I need to tell you something factual and/or useful before launching into one-liners.  Which I call “Stand Up News.” Work with me here: Starting with part two of the Employment … Read More

I promised to keep today’s ChartPack to 30-some pages. It came in at 41. Apparently, even the page count is suffering from inflation. There’s a four-chart Quick Read Coach up front, because the useful question this morning is whether tech’s weakness becomes a broader market problem—or another pullback the bulls manage to repair. We’ve marked … Read More

First, we have to address the obvious.  The Replay of 1929 scenario may be running out of steam more quickly than expected.  Already rumors are floating around in server farm world that projects will be delayed three months in some cases.  But of course, there will always be talk (and grousing) in the trades. Hormuz … Read More

This is a pre-holiday week. A lot of things we already think we know: Markets are often chipper and higher ahead of time off. Gas prices for the week sometimes hit lows by Tuesday. Tank up? The weather usually changes once weekend plans are locked. Traffic — road rage and all — will suck by … Read More

A quick BlinkLabNews scan to roll with  coffee first: Because a few readers are arguing for me to work harder not smarter.  That’s a tale worth telling.  First, though, let’s suck up some coffee and run the global systems check. News Compressor: ON What has changed is the Plaskett Fire: Cal Fire mapped it at 8,241 acres … Read More

Over on Peoplenomics this morning, subscribers get Book Two of The Ancient Children, a look ahead at The Good War, and another novel concept that fell out of the economics work almost by accident: Friction Pricing. The premise is simple enough to sound dangerous—if AI keeps driving the informational cost of goods and services toward … Read More

So far, there’s no sign of the “bake on 400F for two-months” ending down here.  Which leaves us with lots of “chill time” after updating our 5-ton A/C unit – which I’ll explain in a special ShopTalk episode this morning. But the Fried, eh? refers to the birds we watch migrating at this time of year. E-6s … Read More

You know the AI mania is still alive when Nvidia jumps 7% after blockbuster earnings boost AI confidence. The trillion-dollar server farm builds continue en masse. But, as a skeptic and House of Cards fan? Nvidia’s GAAP EPS $2.46 printed above non-GAAP $2.22 because of about $7.77 billion in net gains on equity securities — … Read More

One of the things long-distance sailors learn is that the ocean doesn’t necessarily run on a convenient clock. Rogue waves are the extreme example. They are real, they statistically cluster under certain conditions, and modern systems are getting better at identifying when the risk environment is right. But there isn’t a nice little mechanical cycle … Read More

OK…read ’em and sleep: Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.5% annual gain in June, up from a 1.2% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.9%, up from a 2.4% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted … Read More