Thumb Twiddlers, gather round.  We have one presser, one half-hour to Housing Data. and a day after lunch for the Fed. Presser firster: I would paste in all kinds of numbers back in the old days, but I’m retired (sort of) and don’t do word salad before noon, thanks. Now? Lower head, applying nose to … Read More

We kick off Fed Week with the CFNAI – Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator – just out: adjust the rearview accordingly. “The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.07 in September from –0.08 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two … Read More

Big week ahead:  One week of cleaning before my pal of almost 75-years – the Major – shows up. Getting the shop presentable and lining up the ham radio antenna work plus the usuals this week (like a lube, oil, and filter at the cardiologist’s place for both of us this week…) well, you know … Read More

Peoplenomics Saturday: The Market’s Missing Third Leg Markets are heading into what could be a consequential week, with housing data, the Federal Reserve, GDP, and employment costs all lining up for inspection. Meanwhile, our Aggregate Index has slipped below its 85-day moving average, technology stocks are losing coherence, and the question isn’t merely whether stocks … Read More

Three Financial Waves Are Beginning to Interact – as if the “slipistration” of the market isn’t evidence isn’t clear enough yet. The morning’s most important observation is not any single headline. It is the interaction between three systems. If you’re on the Home Edition, here’s the layout: Wave One: Energy inflation. Gulf instability raises the cost … Read More

Last week, my consigliere called to (again) remind me of the dangers of circular finance. See, he used to have a national client that made the bulk of its growth -for years running – with competitors selling facilities among themselves.  And the problem? Accounting is generally about relationships between two companies. When things extend out, past … Read More

George Ure has written multiple books exploring artificial intelligence, including Mind Amplifiers, Co-Intelligence, Test-Fitting Apes, Theomachines, The Judgment Engine, and AI: Thinking on the Gallows. So, when he ventures into new AI territory, there’s a substantial body of earlier thinking behind it. Today’s Peoplenomics research goes considerably further than proposing a thinner, less computationally expensive … Read More

We are definitely drifting back toward the short-and-to-the-point public columns. The reason is simple: Deep dives on Peoplenomics are eating the research and writing time that used to go into this side of the operation. Which means we need to get to the point faster. And this morning, the point is that markets, housing, energy, … Read More

While we wait for the D.C. KENO runners to show up, a look at our Aggregate Average of the markets (yellow numbers) compared with the 85 DMA reveals the market – half-an-hour in – was over the 85 DMA This is only an early preview, but it shows how closely the market is working both … Read More

First we need to acknowledge some “wisdom of the sea.”  From Reader Stiks.  The reason we nod to him is for remembering “how things have run in the past” – and that’s something that only happens very close to waters – in his case sailing the globe and in north Oz.   Historical solutions remembered including … Read More

Elaine and I spent a perfect Saturday putting together a new piece of furniture (made in Taiwan). And I have to admit it was exactly why one needs to “manage for outcomes” – not trying to put on airs about being a woodsmith. It was well-made, the holes were perfect and even the doors lined … Read More

Markets are beginning to look like they might have a nasty surprise waiting for investors between now and the holidays. In today’s Peoplenomics, we lead with our latest OTH (Other Than Human/Over-the-Horizon) forecasting outlook, then compare those forward-looking possibilities with the Fed’s industrial production numbers and our Saturday ChartPack. With energy prices, AI financing, geopolitical … Read More