We need to begin with an article reader Hank out on the Big Island cited overnight. Over on Zero Hedge: Strongest El Nino In 75 Years Sets Off Food Supply-Chain Alarm Bells. This is not new to our thinking around here as you know.  Dust Bowls come and go. But from the economics and investment … Read More

We are – right now – in what I call “IHOP Markets.”  Because prices keep waffling. Our best guess (and that’s all market lookaheads are., in all reality), it looks to us like there is clear sailing ahead until Labor Day.  Sure, there is a Fed FOMC in a couple of weeks,. But sure as the … Read More

This morning the “pseudo-normal” period ended. U.S. Central Command confirmed strikes on over 80 Iranian targets — including air defenses, command networks, coastal radar, and IRGC vessels — in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with strikes toward U.S.-linked facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The U.S. also revoked … Read More

First, we want to extend sincere wishes for the well-being of readers in the Lake Chelan, Washington area where the Chelan Hills fire (see map here) has really blown up. Wildfires are just one of the modern convergences that come with industrialization.  It’s early in the fire season – which runs to October (and later, … Read More

With a (relatively) even news flow today, we might as well have a look at some serious Fourth of July woo-woo. Long-time readers know that I have a marvelously vivid visual dream world – which occasionally reveals some predictive content.  Other times, it’s just jaw-dropping cool.  And this is something anyone can do – with … Read More

With the hottest part of the summer just weeks off now, it was time to “serious up” on the lower-tech approach to cooling the lean-to greenhouse. If you go back into ancient history, son G2 and I cobbled up the idea a few years back and it has been a lot of fun. Not that … Read More

While the fireworks pop and grills fire up this Independence Day weekend, markets are showing some interesting gearing under the hood. Our latest look at M2 growth versus the Aggregate Index points to roughly 4-to-1 leveraging of new money into gains over the past year—21.9% higher on the index side. That kind of disconnect has … Read More

And, since I do have to keep up on everything – it should now become clear why the “News Compressor” and the silicons are still reading 50+ intel sites per day and issuing forth summary changes for us. In other words “Retired or not, the News Compressor and related tasking will still appear” and maybe with … Read More

Job, jobs, jobs – and my own semi-retirement.  Yep, the business stuff first and my Exit Plans in the Around the Ranch section. The two biggies today are the Federal jobs numbers which look like so: Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+57,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in June, the U.S. Bureau … Read More

The holiday-shortened week isn’t just about fireworks and family gatherings. Beneath the surface, markets are entering one of those rare periods where history, liquidity, and human psychology may all be lining up in uncomfortable ways. This week I take a hard look at an intriguing correspondence between today’s market structure and the weeks leading into … Read More

Your home may still be the best investment you’ll ever make – except maybe a marriage license if it comes with a warranty… Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions,reported a 0.8% annual gain in April, up from a 0.7% rise in the previous month. … Read More

We begin with the “two-part Tuesday” explainer:  The Case-Shiller, S&P (and whoever) Housing report will be out at 8 AM. I guess we could call it “Two-and-a-half-part” Tuesday because around 10 AM the markets will have a Maalox Moment when both the Labor JOLTS report and consumer confidence show up – surely adding a half-point … Read More