Challenger Job Cuts looked really good today: “Job Cuts Fall in September; Hiring Plans Up 3% Over 2025 On Weak Early Seasonal Hiring. “SEPTEMBER LAYOFF PLANS FALL TO 43,281; TYPICAL SURGE IN SEASONAL HIRING PLANS ABSENT, BUT HIRING REMAINS ABOVE 2025 U.S.-based employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from the 52,881 announced … Read More

Forget inflation percentages for a minute. What if we priced things in the one currency none of us can print more of — hours of human life? In 1966, a cheeseburger cost me 19 cents. Today, something comparable might be $3.50. Sounds terrible until you ask how many minutes you had to work to buy … Read More

Just out from S&P/Cotality: Data through July 2026 reveals the following: Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.9% annual gain in July, up from a 1.6% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 3.4%, up from a … Read More

Today’s column almost wrote itself after Elaine and I had a peaceful lunch following a morning of chores Monday. The general flow of events was clear, even if the specifics were still drifting. Semi-retired is a great thing. News Compressor: ON Let’s begin with the specific drift overnight…because we’re in Day One of a four-day … Read More

We need to begin with the zoom-in today.  Because the rest of the week is likely to blur. That’s because tomorrow is the Case-Shiller housing report. Then, an hour later, Labor’s JOLTS report will pop – and that launches up into the Employment package into Friday. ADP, Challenger Cuts, and federal numbers. Unfortunately, markets are … Read More

News Compressor: ON Our OTH lookahead software points to “clustering” as the major risk for fall and into winter.  Usually, you will have a “named risk” (like the Radio Trust blowing up) when there’s a possible Depression brewing up. On closer inspection, though, it’s always a multivariate mess. You have your runaway consumer spending (“buy … Read More

Markets have reached one of those wonderfully uncomfortable places where the bullish and bearish cases can both be right — just on different clocks. Our State-Variance work says there is still room overhead, Tech has climbed safely back above its 85-day moving average, and the Ebbinghaus-Ure work suggests the market may have finished its latest … Read More

Today’s column may sound a bit direct and maybe even harsh. But the weather has finally broken out of the heat wave, so I can get my “game back on.” Digital Data Roundup Here’s what the taskers are reporting in – and this should explain the “yammer” caption. Source-Access Audit 63 unique deduplicated story clusters … Read More

NON-SUBNSCRIBER NOTE: My latest book “Test-Fiutting Apes: How economics goes bananas” is now available on Kindle. In the Peoplenomics report yesterday, I was anticipating that we would have one more up next week, before the gates of hell open and we descend into the depths of Depression. You may find this difficult to believe but Ure … Read More

Over on Peoplenomics this morning, we’re earning the subscription fee the hard way. We start with the News Compressor and four things that actually matter: Gulf energy flows, Trump-Xi and Taiwan, the newest Russia/Ukraine wrinkle, and the accelerating AI/compute race. Then there’s today’s ChartPack, because markets don’t particularly care about anybody’s political opinions when it’s … Read More

Watch the Calendar and the Blow Off? Weather, calendars, and who is craziest are keeping what little attention they deserve for the rest of the week.  Peoplenomics is where we’ll look at what could happen “with the music stops” but the market was up over 400 points Monday so it’s an article of faith that … Read More

Happy?  That’s what you have to bring to the party. Higher?  That’s what we laid out in the Peoplenomics ChartPack Saturday: First is the Moving Average Oscillator – It’s low in range and cleared for higher. And the other hint?  Look at the Bull Golem chart.  Slow bulls are where the useful arrow is – but … Read More